WEBVTT - FINAL NFL WEEK 14 BETS - Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Colts-Jaguars, Steelers-Ravens, Saints-Bucs and more 0:00:00.880 --> 0:00:04.720 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bat. 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:08.160 We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:10.760 the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:13.760 wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Moleman. I am 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:17.840 joined as always by my co host. My companion might Beff, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.960 my compadre professional better signon hunter head o S. 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.440 I mean, Chad, let's get into it. How is your 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:26.000 knight brother? 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:31.960 Dude, look at this. It's so weird. It's so weird 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:39.279 to root for school that in football is literally the 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:44.400 second losing his program in NFL history. To love the school, 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.800 to love the fight song so much, and to see 0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:51.400 this team that has been so historically bad. When I 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.040 had gone to so many games where we'd start off 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:57.240 the season three and zero and then we'd play Michigan, 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:01.640 Ohio State, Iowa whoever is in that rinking ding rinky 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.520 dingk Memorial Stadium and it'd be empty, extupp for me 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.560 and one other guy, my buddy Matt, and like, we'd 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:10.240 get blown out and that would be the season. And 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:14.520 we were physically dominant on the offensive line, we were 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:20.920 strategically brilliant. We had mistakes, we got breaks there was pageantry. 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:24.320 The idea that there is a generation of people right 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:28.160 now who are going to grow up thinking Indiana football 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:32.760 is an exciting thing to experience, that Indiana tailgates on 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.959 a Saturday afternoon in Bloomington, or all of a sudden 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.360 something people want to go to that college game day 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.559 and big noon kickoff. Are going to want to start 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:46.360 the season at Indiana. Like, it's insanity to me the 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:50.080 Indiana fight song being sung on national television at the 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:54.040 end of that game. Even my wife was happy for me, Like, 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:58.680 it's just it's it's remarkable. It's the number of texts 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:02.040 I'm getting for congratulation. I mean, all I have to 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.800 do was sit on my couch and watch the game. Amazing. 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.200 Kudos to you for giving out the here's yours twenty 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:09.280 four hours before the game. 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:12.400 Yeah, I wish I could take credit for it, but yeah, 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:14.160 that's just following very smart people. 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:17.160 It's smart money. But yeah, it's it's. 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:20.240 What draw us people into college football. I know, it's 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:21.799 a sport that gets a lot of hate because it's 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.200 so top heavy, and you know, you give teams hard 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:25.799 times because it's like, you know, if you're a diehard 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.160 Arkansas fan, what is that life. 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:30.840 You're never going to be relevant. But this is the 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:32.720 exact scenaria why you never give up. 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.720 Right, if you get the right coach with the right 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:37.919 kind of NL money, we should start with the. 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.400 Top of that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, And the coach is. 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.240 The most important part anythings possible in college football. Right 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:45.720 if you can strike getting the coach before they leave 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:47.960 for the big time school, you can do it. 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:49.840 You might become a big time school. 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.080 He signed now for a long time, so yeah, I 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:54.880 just I can't get over the turnaround. If he's doing 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.160 this with you know, three four start two star recruits, 0:02:58.600 --> 0:02:59.600 a couple five star. 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.960 Now we're gonna start rolling in. It's bizarre. 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:07.880 Whatever college basketball school like Duke is now a team 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:11.480 winning their conferences in football, it's Duke Indiana. 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.840 It's a bizarre time right now in the college football space. 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:14.320 I love it. 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:18.839 Freaking bizarre world nil money transfer portal. Go hire an 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.120 old coach who's proven in it, he can win the money, 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.160 does the recruiting for you. There's a blueprint here that's 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:32.160 really really fascinating, But it's not what we're talking about today, Simon, 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:35.760 because this is the semi strip down in the room 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:39.560 eavesdropping version of Sharp or Square. You and I are 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:43.119 going to make our final five picks and the good 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.520 news Now, this is the first Sunday with our brand 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:50.000 new pick Them contest. We are all playing from the 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:55.160 exact same lines. Folks. Final reminder, Final re monor. You've 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.400 still got time? You can sign up now for free, 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:01.880 make your picks and compete directly with me and Simon 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.240 to earn your shot at our grand prize, a trip 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:09.200 for two to the incredible Seminole Heartbroke Hotel and Casino 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.760 in sunny South Florida. Go to Sharp or Square dot 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:17.440 the Volume dot com. That's Sharp or Square dot the 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.839 volume dot com. If you want to know me and 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:25.640 Simon our team name Chad and Simon BFFs, because that's 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.560 who we are. Are you ready my bff my brother 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:32.680 to get into it for today Sunday Week fourteen? You're ready? 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:33.440 Yeah, buddy? 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.039 Right here we go. Games reserved in on the other day, 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:41.840 Indy at Jacksonville. Look, I think we both come around. 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:45.800 We're on Jacksonville at this point. I've actually bet Jacksonville 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.400 on the money line. I didn't even bother with the spread. 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:54.159 There might be massive thunderstorms and rain in this game. 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.680 I don't love Trevor Lawrence in any scenario, but I'm 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:01.440 just sort of going to lean into it. I'm going 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:03.400 to lean into the storm. I'm going to be like 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:07.120 you know in Caddyshack, it's not the hard. Stuff's not 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:11.120 coming down for a while. Go Jags. I just I'm 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:14.000 too worried about Daniel Jones. They've also got injuries that 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.640 along the defensive line the Colts, which I think is 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.640 impactful for them. So we're gonna stay on the Jags. 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:21.159 Yeah, on the Jags. 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.000 But it's definitely a type of game where you know 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:25.680 you don't want to make a huge position on it 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.960 because of what Shad just talked about. You're factoring an 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:31.800 unknown factor into a game where we've seen it time 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.320 and time again. It's not a strength at all for 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:35.920 Trevor Lawrence to play in bad weather. 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:37.640 I mean, just off the top of my head. 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:39.720 The one that really pops up because I'm an Eagles fan, 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.120 is that game where the Jaguars and Eagles. Jaguars dominating 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:45.200 the game, beating the Eagles, and I think he had 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:47.560 four fumbles he might have lost three of them against 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.359 the Eagles. And the Eagles came back and won that 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.680 game the second half. So I don't love it for 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.960 our Trevor Lawrence belief in bet here. 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.320 But the truth still holds true, which is. 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:00.320 I think this is a Jaguars sem is going to 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:04.640 give real problems Daniel Jones. That offense on the cold side, 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.520 on the offensive side, I still think they'll be I'll 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:09.000 take advantage of this cold secondary. 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:12.080 So, like Jed said, it's if it's gonna be one 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:12.640 of our five. 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:15.360 We kind of wanted it to be perfect scenario with 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.679 this Jaguars team because we both have such reservations about 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:21.159 backing Trevor Lawrence. So this kind of gives us the 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:22.400 out here if we do not want to put this 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.840 in one of our five, just because it makes me 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:26.479 lead confidence knowing that it's going to be a really 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:27.479 bad weather down there. 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:29.599 All right, well, we don't have to do it. We 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.840 don't have to do it Tennessee A Cleveland another game 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.400 we don't have to do. Cleveland is a three and 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:38.440 a half point favorite. We both bet Cleveland here. You 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.720 had the line of the Week on Thursday where you're 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:43.760 just like, we seem to get so locked in on 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:47.120 these games we talk ourselves into it, are we going 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:50.760 to try to talk ourselves out of it? On Sunday? 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.720 The line has moved from three and a half to four. 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.240 There are fours in the world. It's been trending in 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.680 that direction of the last twenty four hours. So I 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.279 feel a little bit better that the money is starting 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.680 to come in on Cleveland. I don't think it's just 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:07.839 public money. I think it's professionals betting on the Browns. 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:11.560 But do we like it enough to put it in? 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:13.080 Yeah. 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:16.440 I've dug in all week about how I just love 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:18.520 this Browns team because it's really a bet to me 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:22.080 on their defense. And shockingly, there are some four and 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.160 a halfs popping up there. So, like Chad said, there 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:27.400 is not just professional money. Obviously, public money is coming 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:29.240 in here on this Browns team. And I think it's 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:31.520 because people are seeing the weather report this morning, which 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:35.800 is cold, freezing side where snow and rain and just 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.560 bad wins right now what they're predicting for Cleveland. So 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:41.560 it's another game where we can lean into it. Trust 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.600 is defense, and we talked about they just simply got 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:45.480 outplayed by their. 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:46.480 Own special teams last week. 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.440 This Browns team, right I think if you go back 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:51.000 and watch it, Chaggia about the stat every drive felt 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:53.080 like it started their own side, their own fifty for 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:55.000 the forty nine ers, right, the foreign arows kept being 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:57.560 to eat on the Browns forty, the Browns thirty. You know, 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.440 coaches going from the Browns doing thirty and gave the 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:02.240 four nine ers a start on their own thirty. So 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.480 it's a little scary now in that shad Or Sanders 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:06.160 is such a big favorite here chat, but I told 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.280 you this to me, is not him being a big 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:08.800 number here. 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.000 This is this big number, is this defense. 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:15.080 This is purely a defensive number, and it's all about 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:16.280 what we were confident, right. 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:19.400 We literally dove into this exact position. 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:21.600 I don't know, it feels like ten years ago, but 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:23.920 it was probably four or five weeks ago on Miami 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:29.360 versus Brown's team in this exact spot. Yeah, Gabriel right 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:32.000 with Gabriel, which is no different than Sanders. My model 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:34.120 Lily has a difference of half a point between these 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.559 two guys. So it's if we believe in a chat, 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.920 we're simply betting a good number, which hard rock is 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:40.079 right now in my stre and a half because this 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:41.760 number is going to four and a half forward a 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:44.240 lot of books, and we're banking on this defense in 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:46.520 this weather at home. It just feels like a unique spot. 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.320 So I'm still in on it. I don't know if 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:50.880 you if you want to join me. Like I've joked 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.280 about it, I am probably over one hundred on this 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:55.920 Tennessee team these last two years, but I just feel 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:57.839 like this is a unique spot back on this Browns team. 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:00.760 We have no rhythm when it comes to the Tennessee 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:05.679 Titans zero. We we cannot catch the falling knife on 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.240 this team, but we have a lot of rhythm with 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:14.559 the Browns. Yeah, and so I've I'm still on it. 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:17.839 I've bet into it. I'm not walking away from it. 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:23.880 Let's just commit to its. Yeah, let's own it. Because 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:26.520 don't forget, these lines are dynamic in this contest, So 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:28.760 you can start betting it as soon as the line's 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:33.000 open and up until kickoff, and if you decide to 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.080 make changes along the way, you're gonna have to make 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.640 changes to everything. So it's part of the sort of 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.400 gamification of this contest. Miami at the New York Jets, 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:44.400 this was Chad choice to two and a half in 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.800 the contest. Not the best number because it's been three 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.480 for much of the week, I still love it. I 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:51.920 bet the Jets. I bet the Jet to three. I 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.840 bet the Jets of three. On Wednesday, I bet the 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:58.480 Jets of three. I think again on Thursday, I bet 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:03.319 the Jets money line. I'm all in on the Jets here, 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:06.960 and maybe I'm making a mistake, maybe I'm sort of 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:13.000 over enthusiastic, but I just don't see how a Jets 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.120 team that was a two and a half point underdog 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:19.160 on the road against the Dolphins in Week four is 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:23.080 now still as bad as that Jets team in Week 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.480 four when we've all seen the issues the Dolphins have 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:30.400 as well, so the line hasn't changed in ten weeks. 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:32.000 Doesn't make any sense to me. 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:35.160 Yeah, and unfortunately, this is the one of the games 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:37.599 that won't be affected by the colder bad whether I 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:40.040 think it's going to get up above forty here in 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.960 Jersey by kickoff, sunny skies, no rain, no snow, none 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.440 of that, which is something I honestly was hoping for 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:47.920 in this matchup. I thought I was gonna play into 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.040 our favorites, especially you know, earlier in the week we 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:51.520 were talking it was supposed to be in the twenties 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:54.120 low thirties in this matchup, which you know, we all 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.560 know the stats too. It tends to struggles exact climate. 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.880 But I love it. 0:10:58.360 --> 0:10:59.240 It's it's a. 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:02.200 Pros pros game. It's truly all the it's just pro 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:04.880 money on the Jets. All the other money is all 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.720 public money on this Miami team, and for a good reason, 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:09.480 right Miami, they have as. 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:10.800 Much crap as we like giving them. 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.520 We thought they were deader than dead, right, They kind 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:15.880 of given up on the season, and they've totally not 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.160 turn it around, but they've at least showed up for 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.040 their head coach here down the stretch right after they 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:21.199 fired their general manager. 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:22.960 I think they've won three of their last four. 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:26.520 So it's a unique spot here for this Miami team 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.480 that you know, I think the public is starting to 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.400 finally believe in them. Where we talked about this Jets game, 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:32.679 we were never gonna be able to avoid it. 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.880 We liked the number. This probably should be closer to 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:35.360 a pick. 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.120 It's totally overaction to the public to me on this 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.160 Miami side and on the flip side, Taylor, we've been 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:44.320 on this the stats, Tyrod Taylor last eight starts seven 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.160 to zero to one against the spread. It's just continually 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.760 undervalued against the public, and we've been backing them along 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.439 this whole stretch. So nothing's changed here, right. We like 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.800 the number, like you said, perfect world. Just like last week, 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:57.520 we would have loved to gotten this two at three 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:58.920 and a half. That would have been a really safe, 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.520 secure number. It's never gotten there. Like you said, the 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.360 threes come down at two and a half. Romost every book. 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.720 So we'll take down the contest and not get scared 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:06.480 off by this number. 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.320 We will not be scared off because we think the 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:12.200 Jets are going to win this game outright, New Orleans 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.760 at Tampa Bay. The line is currently eight and a half. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:18.840 The Saints are eight and a half point underdog. Simon, 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.959 this is going to be our rock and a hard place, 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:25.160 hard rock bet of the week. 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:26.560 I want a rock. 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:33.440 You talked about the Saints a bunch on Thursday. It 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.280 took me a minute to come around. I am on 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.240 the Saints now. I bet the Saints at plus eight 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.120 and a half. I bet the Saints on the money line. 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.000 Oh god, yeah, just for fun, just a little taste, 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:49.040 not like listen, not like you know college tuition money, 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:57.160 just like you know a burato ball Chipotle. But I 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.720 just sort of feel like the Bucks have not been 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:04.920 played up to the level that everyone thinks they are 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:07.880 and the Saints. I'm not going into the oh the 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.680 Saints are more competitive than you think, but their underlying 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:14.480 metrics aren't as bad as you think. So I'm not 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:17.200 uncomfortable playing the big number here in the division a 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.480 game that was much more competitive than the score indicated 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:20.679 the last time these two played. 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.720 Yeah, and I love it too, because it's back in 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.079 this Saints team, We're either going to be in a 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.600 really close, back to the word type of game where 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.320 they do have an opportunity. 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.000 Or it's dead in the first quarter exactly. 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:36.400 We will either or will be down thirty to nothing 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.520 in the first half and just getting totally blown out. 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.280 So these are the gross ugly dogs. I like. Betting 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:43.640 gave out that stat on Tuesday. 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.839 Again, we didn't really talk much Thursday because I think, 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:47.679 like you said, it wasn't much on your radar, but 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.520 I did wildly love it. I look at this one 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:53.880 where it's it's really the best based off just kind 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:55.599 of like that Jets game where the public continues to 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.040 undervalue the Saints team. And we've gone back now last 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.280 couple of years. You know, this Saints team divisually on 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:03.960 the road as an underdog or eight to zero against 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.559 the spread. So they've had a run here these last 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:08.599 three four years where they keep getting undervalued by the 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.959 general public. They go on the road in their division, 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.400 which we joke all the time, the NFC South. No 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.000 one knows what's going to happen, but you can't bank 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.400 on taking the dogs and a lot of these matchups, right, 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:19.840 and we've kind of have that proven out. 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:21.600 So you said it best. 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:23.760 The last time they played, they got blown out, I 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.600 think three to twenty three something like that. Yeah, but 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:28.000 it was. 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.920 Not a twenty three to three game. That was a 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:35.120 The score was twenty three to three. The circumstances that 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:38.200 led to it being twenty twenty three to three were 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.480 not dominance by the box. It was flukey plays a 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:43.840 lot of luck. They were only winning seven to three 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.560 at half, and that was because of a pick six. 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:48.400 Like nobody was playing well in that game. 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:50.560 I would say total melt down by the Saints if 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:52.240 you go back and watch it. But we do give 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:52.800 some grace. 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.240 That was when we think Bett Baker had an injury 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.120 he didn't disclose and he was fighting through it, and they 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:58.960 had a bunch of injuries obviously to the offense. 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.080 No God would know my the snow Buck Irving. 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:05.240 So yeah, this matchup for me, it's really just back 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.360 in about the public just moving this number too much 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.080 and overrating this Bucks team that yes, they're going to 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:11.760 be better now they have a lot of other guys back, 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:15.520 but that defense. There ain't no guy coming off the 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.480 bench that's going to save this defense for this Bucks team. 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.320 They have been terrible against the run and they've really 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.400 struggled the season with teams that can push the ball downfield, 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.120 which you know, as much as crap he's like to 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.320 give shuck, he's actually been pretty. 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.280 Good yeashing the ball downfield consistently. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.040 So yeah, we both love this number, and really it's 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:34.120 about the line plus eight and a half at every book. 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:36.960 I can't avoid it another game. I just love on 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:38.800 this dog and I'm glad we at least have one 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:40.880 road team. We're here backing. 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:42.800 Warren Sap is not walking through that door. 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:43.200 No. 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.120 I put Houston plus three and a half at Kansas 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:51.760 City on this list. Wow, This number was four and 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.560 a half at a book on Saturday afternoon. I don't 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.520 know if you saw that. I grab Houston at four 0:15:57.560 --> 0:15:59.600 and a half. It's now back down to three and 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:04.240 a half at most places. I just wanted to throw 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.840 it in there because we're getting the better defense in 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.440 the contest. We're getting the better defense and the hook 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.240 against a team that has basically played all close games 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.720 this year. Whether we think the Chiefs will win a 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:18.760 close game and there'll be some regression to the mean 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:20.640 in a positive way, or they're going to lose a 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:24.840 close game, getting the hook feels important to me in 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.920 this contest, especially when we know the Chiefs are not 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.280 going to have their starting left tackle. They might not 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.600 have their starting right tackle. He was doubtful slash out 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.440 on the injury list yesterday, so they're going to be 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:43.880 playing two backup tackles for protecting Patrick Mahomes against possibly 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.520 the best pass rush and definitely the best defense in 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.800 the NFL Sunday night. 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.560 Yeah, but again, it's so different than Dallas Lions game shot, 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:57.160 and it's something where we joke about it. But if 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.640 the line just seems off and there's something fishy and 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.040 it's it's what week fourteen here, you gotta trust your 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:05.399 instincts here, So I get what you're taking a position 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:06.000 on Houston. 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:07.119 Everything you said is true. 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.720 I just I want people to be wary of this 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.840 game because what Chad just said, why is this not keep? 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:15.480 It was moving to three like I got a bunch 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.720 of threes in the Chiefs. It was moving in the 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.800 three two and a half direction. Now they're left and 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.119 right tackle might be out, and it's going up the 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.720 four four and a half, So be careful. 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:28.960 I'm on the Chiefs. I guess we're just split here. 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:31.840 Like you said, everything is very logically you said in 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:35.359 Houston they have the best unit on the field. Obviously 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.399 in this defense, they're just incredible. This this actually is 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.480 a pretty good matchup with them. But I think on 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:43.879 the flip side, this is the exact type of game Stags. 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:45.240 Gets right against this Houston offense. 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.120 So to me, it's me be the type of game 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.680 that you know is gonna be one in the red zone, 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:52.639 and I think Chiefs Mahomes they take advantage of this 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:54.360 Houston team in the red zone. On the flip side, 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.520 I think Houston continues to struggle in the red zone 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.760 so I get Chad's perspective, your people, but just be careful. 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.639 They're something very fishy about this number in the way 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.159 it's moving where I'm on the Chiefs, but very very 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.680 leaky confident. You can hear my voice. I just yeah, 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:09.360 I don't trust this Chiefs team at all. But it's 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.480 just like the lines, I'm simply playing a fishy spot 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:15.399 on a team that historically tends to bounce back in 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:16.240 this exact spot. 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:18.879 I'm only on the Texas at four and a half. 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:24.399 I'm kind of agnostic or ambivalent about it at three 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:24.560 and a. 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:26.240 Half and half im the Chief. 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.560 Honestly, it's not scared me, but it's like, again, I 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.280 just to be one of our five. It's like, man, 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.240 I really wish you came in super confident, the Chief, 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:37.480 so I can have backed you up here, But it 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:39.840 sucks for split, so I guess we'll just avoid it. 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:42.359 Well, look, I think we have three games we're agreed 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.400 on so far, Cleveland, the Jets, and the Saints. Boy, 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:52.320