WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 6 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 17) 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.119 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros 0:00:10.200 --> 0:00:14.120 NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:16.280 Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:18.599 Harris Adi. It is time to break down some of 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.479 our favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:24.000 six NFL slate. With me to talk about it all 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:27.240 is Jared Smola, a senior editor over at Draft Sharks 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.080 dot com. You can find him on Twitter at smola 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:34.200 ds now. Jared is the nineteenth most accurate sports better 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:36.720 over at Bettingpros dot com, and that is out of 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.519 one hundred and fifty eight experts. Guys, he is no 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.479 joke now. Full disclosure, I'm thirty first, So if you 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.920 sense a little bad blood on the show, it's because 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.040 I don't particularly like people who are purportedly better at 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.760 things than I am. Nevertheless, Jared and I have agreed 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:52.720 to bury the hatchet for the next forty or forty 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:54.840 five minutes or so and to try to offer some 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.360 solid betting advice for Week six. Jared, thanks a lot 0:00:57.400 --> 0:00:58.520 for coming on the show. How's it going? 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:01.480 Thanks for having me on. It's going good. We're only 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:04.280 five weeks into the season. So there's still plenty of 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.280 time for me to fall down those rankings. 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.679 Yeah. I haven't been following your rankings closely obviously, but 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:13.080 have you like just been up there from the entire beginning. 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:14.360 Did you have a couple of good weeks, a couple 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:15.080 of bad weeks or what. 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:16.920 I actually had a really good week last week. I 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:19.160 think that boosts me up like twenty or so spots. 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:21.920 Yeah, the last couple of weeks have been really, really, 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.560 really difficult. So I mean for you to come out 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:28.000 ahead there is good. So full disclosure, you and I 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:29.800 need to write the ship here, okay, because we had 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:31.960 a raging hot week on this show for the first 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.360 couple of weeks, but we have slowly sunk into mediocrity. 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:37.560 Last week, I missed on both the over in the 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.680 Broncos Chargers game and the under in the Cowboys Packers game. 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:42.840 And I'm just gonna lay this out there. I believe 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.560 I went over on every single over under that I 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:48.080 picked last week and on bettingbros dot Com. And that's 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:50.520 funny because I actually had rarely missed them at any 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.360 point before last week. I just did not have a 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.240 good sense for the amount of points that We're going 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:57.640 to be scored in Week five, Jared, But thankfully I 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.360 told everyone to bet their mortgage on Minnesota Lane five 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.600 to the Giants, and a late garbage time DeAndre Hopkins 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.760 catch won me the over under eighty six and a 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:08.320 half yard prop bet, which means I do not have 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:10.640 to do this entire show with a British accent like 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.360 I had agreed to do had I lost our guest 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.320 Greg Smith had a rougher week, so Jared, you've got 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:18.760 to get us back on track. It is a big task. 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:19.600 Are you ready. 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:21.680 I'm feeling pretty good about this slate, so let's do 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:22.280 it all right. 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:24.440 As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:26.320 both Jared and I are going to give three of 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.440 our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:31.640 or on the over under. And as always, I'm going 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.160 to note that we're recording this shortly before the Thursday 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.400 night game between the Patriots and the Giants, so we 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:38.239 are not going to be making any picks on that game. 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:40.560 But I have to be honest, I think the Pats 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:42.000 are gonna pull it out, so it's just one of 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:44.560 those gut feelings I've got tonight. So Let's hope that 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:45.960 that's right, and if not, you'll know that I was 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:47.839 wrong on that one. Anyway, if you want to see 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:49.800 how I or Jared pick that game, you can go 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:52.040 to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show you how 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.720 basically every betting expert who makes picks on the site 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.679 made their picks for that and every other game. We're 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:00.160 also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.040 odds in making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:05.640 that you're gonna find available in the market. All right, Jared, 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:07.079 start us off. What's your first pick here? 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:11.000 I'm going Falcons Cardinals over fifty one, and you know, 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:13.760 really they they couldn't have made this over under high 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:14.200 enough for me. 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:16.120 I was gonna hit the over no matter what. 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.200 So when looking at over unders, obviously you're gonna look 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.240 at the quality of the offenses and the defenses in 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.720 the game, but that stuff is baked into the numbers set, you. 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:25.800 Know, by Vegas. 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:27.560 So the stuff I like to look at for over 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.600 unders is the offensive pace of the two teams, you know, 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:35.320 how fast they play, and also the passing rates, because 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:38.040 first of all, we know passing is more efficient leads 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.760 to more points. It also helps too, because if you 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.000 throw the ball, you're either gonna gain yards or if 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.480 it's incomplete, it's gonna stop the clock. So when you're 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:47.720 looking at, you know, games to bet over, I think 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:50.000 you want to bet fast paced teams that throw the 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:53.560 ball a lot. And that describes the Falcons and Cardinals perfectly. 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:57.960 These teams both rate rank top six in seconds per snap. 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:03.160 They're both top five Football Outsider situation neutral pass rate. Sorry, 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:06.640 they're both top five in situation neutral pace, and they're 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.120 both top ten in situation neutral pass rate. So I 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:11.120 think you're gonna get a lot of snaps, a lot 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:13.000 of passing, and a lot of points in this game. 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.560 So a couple things here. First of all, how we 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:20.479 do the podcast is I tell the guests to forward 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:23.000 me their bets shortly before the show to make sure 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.120 that I do not pick the same ones, just because 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.640 you know, I as much as I could say, well 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:29.200 we'll do a draw, you pick one, I pick one, 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.680 you know, let the guests pick whatever they want. This 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:33.440 certainly would have been one of my picks. I just 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.039 want to put that out there. I think it's a 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.680 great bet, and I you know, first of all, everybody 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:39.400 pretty much is on board. When you look at the 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:42.480 betting pros dot com break down, sixty six percent are 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:44.960 on the over. But I believe I can't be sure. 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.040 I look the lines when they first open. I mean, 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.560 I think this opened at like forty seven or forty 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:52.560 eight or something there, so it has moved dramatically up. 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:54.240 So you would have loved it. I'm sure if you 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.600 could have gotten in there. From everyone I've talked to, 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.000 all the money is coming in here on the over, 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.359 so I agree. I think I think it's a great bet. 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.760 I think, you know, the Falcons are also desperate for 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:05.599 a win. I think they're gonna pull out all the stops. 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:07.800 They just don't have the talent on defense right now 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.400 once Can O'Neil went out. They always have the injuries, 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:12.840 and of course we know especially I think this is 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:16.840 the last game without Patrick Peterson for the Cardinals. I 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:19.159 think he had a six game suspension. So I agree. 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:20.719 I think it's gonna be a shoot out, and I 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:22.640 love the bet. I'm a little annoyed that you stole it, 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:26.200 but I'm gonna come up with something that's equally as compelling, 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:30.240 and that is the Jaguars and the Saints under forty 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.320 three and a half. I'm kidding, that's not in any 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:36.359 way compelling full disclosure. I obviously made my picks a 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.600 bit earlier in the day, and when I made this pick, 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.040 the line was actually at forty four and a half, 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:43.440 not forty three and a half. So I'm a little 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:45.720 less bullish on this now that it's under forty three 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:47.760 and a half. But shop around there are still some 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.960 forty four's on it, and I locked in my pick 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.880 on bettingpros dot Com at forty four. Now, first of all, 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.800 for now I'm banking on Jalen Ramsey playing here. It's 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:57.400 a bit up in the air, but it kind of 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:00.240 looks like things are trending in that direction. And it's 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.240 not as if I think he's just gonna be able 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.960 to completely shut down Michael Thomas single handedly or anything, 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:09.400 but I think that his presence drastically improves that defense. 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:11.560 And even if he doesn't, I would still take the 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:13.719 forty three under forty three and a half because in 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.200 the end, I think this comes down to two relatively 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:20.359 strong defenses against two relatively mediocre offenses. I mean, you 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.039 look at the Saints last week Bridgewater edited that aired 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.760 it out completely, but that was basically just Sean Payton 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.159 attacking a glaring weakness in his opponent. The Bucks are 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.880 strong against the run, they cannot in any way stop 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:34.280 the pass. That is not the case with the Jaguars. 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.159 I'm sure Bridgewater is gonna go back to what he 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:40.000 usually does here with an extraordinarily low average depth of target, 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:43.799 and the Jaguars are particularly good at defending receivers after 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.400 the catch on the ground. I know Christian McCaffrey tore 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.840 up the Jaguars last weekend, but overall they've generally been 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:52.000 solid against the run. And I watched that game closely 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:55.040 because I had a lot of action on the Panthers 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:57.359 laying three and a half, but it looked more to 0:06:57.400 --> 0:07:01.080 me like breakdowns in communication, poor gaptis by the linebackers 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:03.200 and the safeties. I didn't really see, all of a sudden, 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:06.480 some glaring weaknesses in their run defense, so I expect 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:08.200 that to kind of be cleaned up. And of course 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.040 news broke shortly before we were coming on that. Alvin 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.640 Kamara popped up on the injury report today with an 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:15.880 ankle injury. So that's never good when you see somebody 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.600 come up. He's purportedly going to be fine, but either way, 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:20.720 he's going to be a little limited. Now the Jaguars 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.840 are coming back home here after a few road games. 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.200 They're still an exciting team with Garterer Minshew leading the way, 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:27.880 and the crowd's going to be into it, and I 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.480 expect them to put up a solid defensive performance. And 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.000 they're also getting a lot of money by being a 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.160 small underdog here with the spread, so I think that 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:38.440 sharpbetters probably expect them to come ahead, and I think 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.800 that probably means that they expect a low scoring game. 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:42.480 Now on the other side, we know the Saints defense. 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.800 They're excellent against the run. Marshaun Lantimore basically takes out 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.600 your number one wide receiver. James O'Shaughnessy is out for 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:50.720 the year with his ACL tear, and he had become 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:53.000 kind of a reliable option for Minshew. So that's one 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.600 peg down on the offensive side. This just strikes me 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.480 as a hard hitting, close game that's going to be 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.640 relatively low scoring, kind of closer to what the Saints 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:04.320 and the Cowboys put on. So I'm going to roll 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.320 here with the under forty three and a half. 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:08.440 I love that call. I'll add one thing. I talked 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.200 about the Falcons and Cardinals both being fast paced teams. 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.920 The Saints and the Jags are both slow paced teams. 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.960 They ranked twenty fifth and twenty ninth in situation. Now 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:18.520 shrall pay so I think I think you know the 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.400 play volume is going to be down in this game. 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:23.240 Already we are completely on the same page as this 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.160 fantastic I'm gonna love whatever your second pick is. I 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:26.720 love it already. 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:30.200 Go ahead, Chiefs minus four versus the Texans at home 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:33.600 for the Texans importantly, and the Lion seems to be 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:36.440 moving against me here this I think this line opened 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:37.160 at like five. 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:37.360 And a half. 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:39.520 Oh no, no, no, no, no. Just to be clear, 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.920 this opened at eight, at eight eight, because I did 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.000 it on Monday and we looked at it eight and 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:49.040 it dropped to five almost immediately after that Sunday night, 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:50.920 it opened at eight and boom, they hit it down 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:51.280 to five. 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:53.240 Like, yeah, five, eight eight is too much. 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:55.480 I mean, I'd take Houston plus eight, but I think 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:57.440 you know, especially now, and it's down to four, which 0:08:57.480 --> 0:08:59.440 is a pretty key number. I just think this is 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:00.920 a recent and see bias. 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:01.360 Bet. 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.240 I mean we all just saw the Tuxan smash, Atlanta 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:06.720 put up that huge offensive performance, and then we all 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.760 just watched the Chiefs lose at home in prime time 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.520 to the Colts. Prior to last week, though the Chiefs 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:16.280 were nine and two in their last eleven home games 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:18.839 dating back to the start of last season, they outscored 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.640 their opponents by an average of twelve points per game 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.000 in those home games. So I'm just gonna bet on 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.079 the Chiefs bouncing back at home. I don't think they're 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:28.440 going to lose two games in a row, especially at home. 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.400 So I think, you know, minus four, with that offense, 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:31.800 I think they can cover that four points. 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.600 I cannot believe this has dropped to minus four. I mean, 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:37.760 that's a ridiculous drop from the fact that it opened 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:39.319 up at minus tate. Now, let me ask you, I 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:41.959 haven't seen anything today. We were talking before this. I've 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.360 been really busy on the day. Is Hill cleared to play? 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.080 Does he look? I know he was limited in practice. 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.360 I believe yesterday. I didn't see anything about today. 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:52.080 Yeah, he was limited again on Thursday. So as far 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:53.880 as we know, you know, he hasn't got that final 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.360 clearance to play. Sammy Watkins miss practice again on Thursdays. 0:09:57.760 --> 0:09:59.439 There's no way Sammy Watkins is going to play in 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.760 this game after essentially being a zero in the last 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.520 game out of curiosity. If He'll can't suit up and 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:06.520 Watkins can set it up, because I'm pretty sure Watkins 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:08.040 is not gonna be able to. Does that at all 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:09.760 damper your enthusiasm for this bet? 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:13.000 It would make me think twice about it. Who knows, 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.240 maybe the line drops to three if that happens. I'm 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:19.520 just betting on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and just how 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.680 good the Chiefs have been at home really for a 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:23.840 while now, and. 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:25.840 Especially you know, dating back to the start of last season. 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.880 Yeah, I mean Sunday Night was pretty shocking. I think 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.560 the book's probably won a crazy amount given that Indy 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.080 one outright let alone, you know, covering the betters are 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.520 with you sixty seven percent on betting pros dot com, 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:40.520 the experts are going with you, and you know, we 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:43.360 have a breakdown between the general betting experts that we 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:46.000 have and the top twenty percent most accurate, which of 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.600 course Jared is part of as am I and they're 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:50.520 with you too, is sixty four percent. So this looks 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:53.959 like something that's generally going to be thought of. I agree. 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.320 My one concern, honestly, above the wide receivers is whether 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:00.520 Mahomes is fully healthy. I know he hanged up his 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:03.480 ankle a little bit again in the last game. But 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.160 I completely agree with you, man. This is something where 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.120 you know, before last week, nobody was that excited about 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.720 the Texans, right, and they come out and they destroy 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.440 a team that has no defense whatsoever. I mean, the 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.720 Falcons are laughable at this point given all their injuries. 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.600 So I think people got a little too excited about it. Arrowhead, 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:21.960 despite the Sunday night dud is still one of the 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:24.720 toughest places to play. So I'm with you as it's four. 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:27.600 I was a little concerned at five and a half 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:29.920 when it was there. Certainly eight I was. I was 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.920 with the Texans. But once it's down to four now, 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.640 which actually I didn't even see until shortly before because 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.480 when I checked before it was five, that's a good bet. 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:40.720 So I'm back in you there. I'm gonna stick with 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:42.680 the over unders, considering I need to get back on 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.760 the train after last week, and I'm going to go 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:48.000 with the Cowboys and my Jets over forty four. And 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.640 again this is one where earlier in the day when 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:52.760 I took the bet, it was at forty three. Now 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.520 it's at forty four. I'm again not quite as bullish 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:57.440 as I was, but I'm still going to take the 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.000 over here now. As I said, I'm a jetsman by nature, 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.960 I am pessimistic. I am more than willing to kill 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:04.880 this team as I do with my cousins on an 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.040 ongoing four year tech string. But I mean, you throw 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.719 out every single thing that you have seen from the 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.120 Jets offense right now, throw it all out. Luke Falk 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.240 is not an NFL quarterback. I am a full believer 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.480 in Sam Darnold, and although I don't think he's going 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:20.120 to be at full strength here. It takes a while 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.160 to be clear from Mono. Even after your quote unquote cleared, 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:26.040 it takes a while to be recovered. And Chris Herndon 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.000 is down. But I think Darnold has shown chemistry with 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.720 both Jameson Crowder and Robbie Anderson in the past, and 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.960 the Cowboys in particular. They let up a lot of 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.080 completions and a lot of yards after the catch. They're 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:39.920 not a team that you can usually throw deep on 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.640 but they do allow a ton of underneath stuff, and 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.760 I think that works well for the offense that m. 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.200 Gase wants to run, and particularly with the presence of Crowder. 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.480 As a general matter, the Cowboys achilles heel in general 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:55.080 is pass catching running backs. That's basically what we're looking 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.839 at here with Le'Veon Bell. The Cowboys just struggled as 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.679 a tackling team as a general matter, like Bell is 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:02.920 going to continue to get fed and he's probably going 0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.199 to do some damage. And look, the Jets have an 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.480 abysmal offensive line, like one of the worst in the NFL, 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:12.480 but the Cowboys rarely blitz just seventeen point six percent 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.640 of the time, and even when they do break through, 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.600 which they will, of course, Darnold has some elusiveness so 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.680 he can extend plays even when the line breaks down. Plus, 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.680 Dallas plays the Eagles next week, and I think they 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.880 could potentially be looking past this game now. On the 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.400 flip side, the Jets defense is getting a little healthier. 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:30.000 They're still down CJ. Moseley, and it sounds like Tyron 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.400 Smith is probably going to be back here, which really 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.960 is a huge difference maker on the Dallas offensive line. 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.559 Now Collins may miss another game, so the offensive line 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.959 isn't at full strength, but the Jets have six sacks 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.000 all season. They're not exactly going to be pressuring Dak 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:44.520 no matter who is up there. They're actually pretty stout 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.400 against the run, but when you look at their secondary 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:50.079 with Tremaine Johnson and Daryl Roberts, they're really soft in coverage. 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.400 And I'm a believer in this Kellen More led offense. 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:54.840 I think that last weekend they just kind of outsmarted themselves. 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:56.960 They going way more pass heavy than they needed to. 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.199 They should have just pounded the ball on the ground 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.679 against the weak Green Bay run defense. I expect a 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:03.800 more balanced attack here and for them to be able 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.839 to score in the end. This overbet is really comes 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.520 down to that. I expect the Jets to be able 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.680 to put up points here. I think Dallas is likely 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:13.640 going to match them. I expect them to win the game. 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:15.480 So I will take the over at forty four, and 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:17.760 I'm not taking it, but I kind of would lean 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.320 the Jets plus seven. I'm not making that one of 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:22.160 my picks, but for me, I do expect the Jets 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:23.880 to put up points here and I Expectdoas to win 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:25.280 and put up points right with them. So I'll take 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:26.240 the over on the forty four. 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:30.600 I'm convinced. And my third pick here is the Jets 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:35.040 plus seven at the Cowboys. Oh, I think you know, 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:38.920 home underdogs never a bad idea, especially when you're getting 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:40.720 a full seven points. I mean, you know that that's 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.880 a key number. So we look at the Cowboys here. 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.760 They look to like world beaters. Those first three weeks, 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.480 they beat the Giants, the Redskins, and the Dolphins, and 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:52.760 they come back the last two weeks and they you know, 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.360 lose to the Saints and the Packers, and those aren't 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:57.720 bad losses. Those are two good teams. But I think 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:59.640 we need to dock them a bit for just you know, 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.040 the team, say, beat those first three weeks. So I 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.800 think these teams are closer than that spread would indicate, 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.640 especially with Sam Donald back as you mentioned. I mean, 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:11.360 I'm a Sam Donald advocate too, even if you're not, 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.920 though you have to admit he's a massive, massive upgrade 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.400 over Luke Falalks. I think, you know, seven points at 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.280 home for the Jets is too much for them to 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:19.640 be getting. 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.640 You would be a massive upgrade over lukewal Just to 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:25.080 be clear, Yeah, no, I agree, And I'm now rechecking 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:26.480 my email and I see that you made that pick. 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.240 So I'm glad I didn't take that back because I 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.880 actually mest that in your email. Yeah, I just think 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.520 you know, this was eight and a half when it 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.800 first opened, and I feel like I should have jumped 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.080 on it because you know, I'm not that I'm all 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:39.880 that plugged in, but as a Jets fan, I'm following 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.480 the situation pretty closely, and it certainly looked like Darnald 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:44.280 was on track here to play. I mean, he was 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.920 almost cleared last week, and I'm really bullish on the kid, 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.320 you know, And I like the offense. I know that 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.880 they didn't put up a ton of points against Buffalo 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.720 in Week one, but you're seeing that Buffalo offense defense 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:56.880 right now, right they're legit. So the fact that they 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.160 were pretty much in control, I really think this is 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:00.880 gonna be a good game. So I would have felt 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:04.000 better about it had the Cowboys won last weekend. You know, 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.360 I could see them being a little bit salty here 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:08.960 as they're coming off back to back losses. But again, 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.040 they've got Philly next week. That's gonna be kind of 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:12.760 the game. I could then a bye after that, so 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:14.880 I could see them kind of looking past us a 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:16.840 little bit. So I like it. Jets minus seven one 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:18.760 hundred percent agree. I'd be all over that as well. 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:20.840 I'm glad I didn't accidentally pick that one, though, but 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.520 we both like I guess I like a high scoring game. 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:28.160 You like the Jets getting seven. Here. Now, my last 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:32.480 pick is something that I I don't even want to say, 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.080 but I'm gonna say it because I have to, because 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.040 that's the whole point of the show. I'm taking the 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:40.200 Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. And yes, 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:42.760 I feel gross about it, but I also feel gross 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.240 after I order steak with a side of steak, and 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.960 I'm still doing that this weekend at Peter Luger's. So 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.560 you know what this line is. This line is bookmakers 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:53.720 saying we want people to bet on this game, because 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.040 nobody is betting on this game if it's at three 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:58.440 or two and a half or anything like that. They 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:00.960