Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Adi. It is time to break down some of
Speaker 1: our favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week
Speaker 1: six NFL slate. With me to talk about it all
Speaker 1: is Jared Smola, a senior editor over at Draft Sharks
Speaker 1: dot com. You can find him on Twitter at smola
Speaker 1: ds now. Jared is the nineteenth most accurate sports better
Speaker 1: over at Bettingpros dot com, and that is out of
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight experts. Guys, he is no
Speaker 1: joke now. Full disclosure, I'm thirty first, So if you
Speaker 1: sense a little bad blood on the show, it's because
Speaker 1: I don't particularly like people who are purportedly better at
Speaker 1: things than I am. Nevertheless, Jared and I have agreed
Speaker 1: to bury the hatchet for the next forty or forty
Speaker 1: five minutes or so and to try to offer some
Speaker 1: solid betting advice for Week six. Jared, thanks a lot
Speaker 1: for coming on the show. How's it going?
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on. It's going good. We're only
Speaker 2: five weeks into the season. So there's still plenty of
Speaker 2: time for me to fall down those rankings.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I haven't been following your rankings closely obviously, but
Speaker 1: have you like just been up there from the entire beginning.
Speaker 1: Did you have a couple of good weeks, a couple
Speaker 1: of bad weeks or what.
Speaker 2: I actually had a really good week last week. I
Speaker 2: think that boosts me up like twenty or so spots.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last couple of weeks have been really, really,
Speaker 1: really difficult. So I mean for you to come out
Speaker 1: ahead there is good. So full disclosure, you and I
Speaker 1: need to write the ship here, okay, because we had
Speaker 1: a raging hot week on this show for the first
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, but we have slowly sunk into mediocrity.
Speaker 1: Last week, I missed on both the over in the
Speaker 1: Broncos Chargers game and the under in the Cowboys Packers game.
Speaker 1: And I'm just gonna lay this out there. I believe
Speaker 1: I went over on every single over under that I
Speaker 1: picked last week and on bettingbros dot Com. And that's
Speaker 1: funny because I actually had rarely missed them at any
Speaker 1: point before last week. I just did not have a
Speaker 1: good sense for the amount of points that We're going
Speaker 1: to be scored in Week five, Jared, But thankfully I
Speaker 1: told everyone to bet their mortgage on Minnesota Lane five
Speaker 1: to the Giants, and a late garbage time DeAndre Hopkins
Speaker 1: catch won me the over under eighty six and a
Speaker 1: half yard prop bet, which means I do not have
Speaker 1: to do this entire show with a British accent like
Speaker 1: I had agreed to do had I lost our guest
Speaker 1: Greg Smith had a rougher week, so Jared, you've got
Speaker 1: to get us back on track. It is a big task.
Speaker 1: Are you ready.
Speaker 2: I'm feeling pretty good about this slate, so let's do
Speaker 2: it all right.
Speaker 1: As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where
Speaker 1: both Jared and I are going to give three of
Speaker 1: our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread
Speaker 1: or on the over under. And as always, I'm going
Speaker 1: to note that we're recording this shortly before the Thursday
Speaker 1: night game between the Patriots and the Giants, so we
Speaker 1: are not going to be making any picks on that game.
Speaker 1: But I have to be honest, I think the Pats
Speaker 1: are gonna pull it out, so it's just one of
Speaker 1: those gut feelings I've got tonight. So Let's hope that
Speaker 1: that's right, and if not, you'll know that I was
Speaker 1: wrong on that one. Anyway, if you want to see
Speaker 1: how I or Jared pick that game, you can go
Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show you how
Speaker 1: basically every betting expert who makes picks on the site
Speaker 1: made their picks for that and every other game. We're
Speaker 1: also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus
Speaker 1: odds in making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds
Speaker 1: that you're gonna find available in the market. All right, Jared,
Speaker 1: start us off. What's your first pick here?
Speaker 2: I'm going Falcons Cardinals over fifty one, and you know,
Speaker 2: really they they couldn't have made this over under high
Speaker 2: enough for me.
Speaker 3: I was gonna hit the over no matter what.
Speaker 2: So when looking at over unders, obviously you're gonna look
Speaker 2: at the quality of the offenses and the defenses in
Speaker 2: the game, but that stuff is baked into the numbers set, you.
Speaker 3: Know, by Vegas.
Speaker 2: So the stuff I like to look at for over
Speaker 2: unders is the offensive pace of the two teams, you know,
Speaker 2: how fast they play, and also the passing rates, because
Speaker 2: first of all, we know passing is more efficient leads
Speaker 2: to more points. It also helps too, because if you
Speaker 2: throw the ball, you're either gonna gain yards or if
Speaker 2: it's incomplete, it's gonna stop the clock. So when you're
Speaker 2: looking at, you know, games to bet over, I think
Speaker 2: you want to bet fast paced teams that throw the
Speaker 2: ball a lot. And that describes the Falcons and Cardinals perfectly.
Speaker 2: These teams both rate rank top six in seconds per snap.
Speaker 2: They're both top five Football Outsider situation neutral pass rate. Sorry,
Speaker 2: they're both top five in situation neutral pace, and they're
Speaker 2: both top ten in situation neutral pass rate. So I
Speaker 2: think you're gonna get a lot of snaps, a lot
Speaker 2: of passing, and a lot of points in this game.
Speaker 1: So a couple things here. First of all, how we
Speaker 1: do the podcast is I tell the guests to forward
Speaker 1: me their bets shortly before the show to make sure
Speaker 1: that I do not pick the same ones, just because
Speaker 1: you know, I as much as I could say, well
Speaker 1: we'll do a draw, you pick one, I pick one,
Speaker 1: you know, let the guests pick whatever they want. This
Speaker 1: certainly would have been one of my picks. I just
Speaker 1: want to put that out there. I think it's a
Speaker 1: great bet, and I you know, first of all, everybody
Speaker 1: pretty much is on board. When you look at the
Speaker 1: betting pros dot com break down, sixty six percent are
Speaker 1: on the over. But I believe I can't be sure.
Speaker 1: I look the lines when they first open. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think this opened at like forty seven or forty
Speaker 1: eight or something there, so it has moved dramatically up.
Speaker 1: So you would have loved it. I'm sure if you
Speaker 1: could have gotten in there. From everyone I've talked to,
Speaker 1: all the money is coming in here on the over,
Speaker 1: so I agree. I think I think it's a great bet.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, the Falcons are also desperate for
Speaker 1: a win. I think they're gonna pull out all the stops.
Speaker 1: They just don't have the talent on defense right now
Speaker 1: once Can O'Neil went out. They always have the injuries,
Speaker 1: and of course we know especially I think this is
Speaker 1: the last game without Patrick Peterson for the Cardinals. I
Speaker 1: think he had a six game suspension. So I agree.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a shoot out, and I
Speaker 1: love the bet. I'm a little annoyed that you stole it,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna come up with something that's equally as compelling,
Speaker 1: and that is the Jaguars and the Saints under forty
Speaker 1: three and a half. I'm kidding, that's not in any
Speaker 1: way compelling full disclosure. I obviously made my picks a
Speaker 1: bit earlier in the day, and when I made this pick,
Speaker 1: the line was actually at forty four and a half,
Speaker 1: not forty three and a half. So I'm a little
Speaker 1: less bullish on this now that it's under forty three
Speaker 1: and a half. But shop around there are still some
Speaker 1: forty four's on it, and I locked in my pick
Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot Com at forty four. Now, first of all,
Speaker 1: for now I'm banking on Jalen Ramsey playing here. It's
Speaker 1: a bit up in the air, but it kind of
Speaker 1: looks like things are trending in that direction. And it's
Speaker 1: not as if I think he's just gonna be able
Speaker 1: to completely shut down Michael Thomas single handedly or anything,
Speaker 1: but I think that his presence drastically improves that defense.
Speaker 1: And even if he doesn't, I would still take the
Speaker 1: forty three under forty three and a half because in
Speaker 1: the end, I think this comes down to two relatively
Speaker 1: strong defenses against two relatively mediocre offenses. I mean, you
Speaker 1: look at the Saints last week Bridgewater edited that aired
Speaker 1: it out completely, but that was basically just Sean Payton
Speaker 1: attacking a glaring weakness in his opponent. The Bucks are
Speaker 1: strong against the run, they cannot in any way stop
Speaker 1: the pass. That is not the case with the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: I'm sure Bridgewater is gonna go back to what he
Speaker 1: usually does here with an extraordinarily low average depth of target,
Speaker 1: and the Jaguars are particularly good at defending receivers after
Speaker 1: the catch on the ground. I know Christian McCaffrey tore
Speaker 1: up the Jaguars last weekend, but overall they've generally been
Speaker 1: solid against the run. And I watched that game closely
Speaker 1: because I had a lot of action on the Panthers
Speaker 1: laying three and a half, but it looked more to
Speaker 1: me like breakdowns in communication, poor gaptis by the linebackers
Speaker 1: and the safeties. I didn't really see, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: some glaring weaknesses in their run defense, so I expect
Speaker 1: that to kind of be cleaned up. And of course
Speaker 1: news broke shortly before we were coming on that. Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara popped up on the injury report today with an
Speaker 1: ankle injury. So that's never good when you see somebody
Speaker 1: come up. He's purportedly going to be fine, but either way,
Speaker 1: he's going to be a little limited. Now the Jaguars
Speaker 1: are coming back home here after a few road games.
Speaker 1: They're still an exciting team with Garterer Minshew leading the way,
Speaker 1: and the crowd's going to be into it, and I
Speaker 1: expect them to put up a solid defensive performance. And
Speaker 1: they're also getting a lot of money by being a
Speaker 1: small underdog here with the spread, so I think that
Speaker 1: sharpbetters probably expect them to come ahead, and I think
Speaker 1: that probably means that they expect a low scoring game.
Speaker 1: Now on the other side, we know the Saints defense.
Speaker 1: They're excellent against the run. Marshaun Lantimore basically takes out
Speaker 1: your number one wide receiver. James O'Shaughnessy is out for
Speaker 1: the year with his ACL tear, and he had become
Speaker 1: kind of a reliable option for Minshew. So that's one
Speaker 1: peg down on the offensive side. This just strikes me
Speaker 1: as a hard hitting, close game that's going to be
Speaker 1: relatively low scoring, kind of closer to what the Saints
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys put on. So I'm going to roll
Speaker 1: here with the under forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: I love that call. I'll add one thing. I talked
Speaker 2: about the Falcons and Cardinals both being fast paced teams.
Speaker 2: The Saints and the Jags are both slow paced teams.
Speaker 2: They ranked twenty fifth and twenty ninth in situation. Now
Speaker 2: shrall pay so I think I think you know the
Speaker 2: play volume is going to be down in this game.
Speaker 1: Already we are completely on the same page as this
Speaker 1: fantastic I'm gonna love whatever your second pick is. I
Speaker 1: love it already.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Chiefs minus four versus the Texans at home
Speaker 2: for the Texans importantly, and the Lion seems to be
Speaker 2: moving against me here this I think this line opened
Speaker 2: at like five.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, no. Just to be clear,
Speaker 1: this opened at eight, at eight eight, because I did
Speaker 1: it on Monday and we looked at it eight and
Speaker 1: it dropped to five almost immediately after that Sunday night,
Speaker 1: it opened at eight and boom, they hit it down
Speaker 1: to five.
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, five, eight eight is too much.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'd take Houston plus eight, but I think
Speaker 2: you know, especially now, and it's down to four, which
Speaker 2: is a pretty key number. I just think this is
Speaker 2: a recent and see bias.
Speaker 3: Bet.
Speaker 2: I mean we all just saw the Tuxan smash, Atlanta
Speaker 2: put up that huge offensive performance, and then we all
Speaker 2: just watched the Chiefs lose at home in prime time
Speaker 2: to the Colts. Prior to last week, though the Chiefs
Speaker 2: were nine and two in their last eleven home games
Speaker 2: dating back to the start of last season, they outscored
Speaker 2: their opponents by an average of twelve points per game
Speaker 2: in those home games. So I'm just gonna bet on
Speaker 2: the Chiefs bouncing back at home. I don't think they're
Speaker 2: going to lose two games in a row, especially at home.
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, minus four, with that offense,
Speaker 2: I think they can cover that four points.
Speaker 1: I cannot believe this has dropped to minus four. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's a ridiculous drop from the fact that it opened
Speaker 1: up at minus tate. Now, let me ask you, I
Speaker 1: haven't seen anything today. We were talking before this. I've
Speaker 1: been really busy on the day. Is Hill cleared to play?
Speaker 1: Does he look? I know he was limited in practice.
Speaker 1: I believe yesterday. I didn't see anything about today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was limited again on Thursday. So as far
Speaker 2: as we know, you know, he hasn't got that final
Speaker 2: clearance to play. Sammy Watkins miss practice again on Thursdays.
Speaker 1: There's no way Sammy Watkins is going to play in
Speaker 1: this game after essentially being a zero in the last
Speaker 1: game out of curiosity. If He'll can't suit up and
Speaker 1: Watkins can set it up, because I'm pretty sure Watkins
Speaker 1: is not gonna be able to. Does that at all
Speaker 1: damper your enthusiasm for this bet?
Speaker 2: It would make me think twice about it. Who knows,
Speaker 2: maybe the line drops to three if that happens. I'm
Speaker 2: just betting on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and just how
Speaker 2: good the Chiefs have been at home really for a
Speaker 2: while now, and.
Speaker 3: Especially you know, dating back to the start of last season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Sunday Night was pretty shocking. I think
Speaker 1: the book's probably won a crazy amount given that Indy
Speaker 1: one outright let alone, you know, covering the betters are
Speaker 1: with you sixty seven percent on betting pros dot com,
Speaker 1: the experts are going with you, and you know, we
Speaker 1: have a breakdown between the general betting experts that we
Speaker 1: have and the top twenty percent most accurate, which of
Speaker 1: course Jared is part of as am I and they're
Speaker 1: with you too, is sixty four percent. So this looks
Speaker 1: like something that's generally going to be thought of. I agree.
Speaker 1: My one concern, honestly, above the wide receivers is whether
Speaker 1: Mahomes is fully healthy. I know he hanged up his
Speaker 1: ankle a little bit again in the last game. But
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, man. This is something where
Speaker 1: you know, before last week, nobody was that excited about
Speaker 1: the Texans, right, and they come out and they destroy
Speaker 1: a team that has no defense whatsoever. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Falcons are laughable at this point given all their injuries.
Speaker 1: So I think people got a little too excited about it. Arrowhead,
Speaker 1: despite the Sunday night dud is still one of the
Speaker 1: toughest places to play. So I'm with you as it's four.
Speaker 1: I was a little concerned at five and a half
Speaker 1: when it was there. Certainly eight I was. I was
Speaker 1: with the Texans. But once it's down to four now,
Speaker 1: which actually I didn't even see until shortly before because
Speaker 1: when I checked before it was five, that's a good bet.
Speaker 1: So I'm back in you there. I'm gonna stick with
Speaker 1: the over unders, considering I need to get back on
Speaker 1: the train after last week, and I'm going to go
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys and my Jets over forty four. And
Speaker 1: again this is one where earlier in the day when
Speaker 1: I took the bet, it was at forty three. Now
Speaker 1: it's at forty four. I'm again not quite as bullish
Speaker 1: as I was, but I'm still going to take the
Speaker 1: over here now. As I said, I'm a jetsman by nature,
Speaker 1: I am pessimistic. I am more than willing to kill
Speaker 1: this team as I do with my cousins on an
Speaker 1: ongoing four year tech string. But I mean, you throw
Speaker 1: out every single thing that you have seen from the
Speaker 1: Jets offense right now, throw it all out. Luke Falk
Speaker 1: is not an NFL quarterback. I am a full believer
Speaker 1: in Sam Darnold, and although I don't think he's going
Speaker 1: to be at full strength here. It takes a while
Speaker 1: to be clear from Mono. Even after your quote unquote cleared,
Speaker 1: it takes a while to be recovered. And Chris Herndon
Speaker 1: is down. But I think Darnold has shown chemistry with
Speaker 1: both Jameson Crowder and Robbie Anderson in the past, and
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in particular. They let up a lot of
Speaker 1: completions and a lot of yards after the catch. They're
Speaker 1: not a team that you can usually throw deep on
Speaker 1: but they do allow a ton of underneath stuff, and
Speaker 1: I think that works well for the offense that m.
Speaker 1: Gase wants to run, and particularly with the presence of Crowder.
Speaker 1: As a general matter, the Cowboys achilles heel in general
Speaker 1: is pass catching running backs. That's basically what we're looking
Speaker 1: at here with Le'Veon Bell. The Cowboys just struggled as
Speaker 1: a tackling team as a general matter, like Bell is
Speaker 1: going to continue to get fed and he's probably going
Speaker 1: to do some damage. And look, the Jets have an
Speaker 1: abysmal offensive line, like one of the worst in the NFL,
Speaker 1: but the Cowboys rarely blitz just seventeen point six percent
Speaker 1: of the time, and even when they do break through,
Speaker 1: which they will, of course, Darnold has some elusiveness so
Speaker 1: he can extend plays even when the line breaks down. Plus,
Speaker 1: Dallas plays the Eagles next week, and I think they
Speaker 1: could potentially be looking past this game now. On the
Speaker 1: flip side, the Jets defense is getting a little healthier.
Speaker 1: They're still down CJ. Moseley, and it sounds like Tyron
Speaker 1: Smith is probably going to be back here, which really
Speaker 1: is a huge difference maker on the Dallas offensive line.
Speaker 1: Now Collins may miss another game, so the offensive line
Speaker 1: isn't at full strength, but the Jets have six sacks
Speaker 1: all season. They're not exactly going to be pressuring Dak
Speaker 1: no matter who is up there. They're actually pretty stout
Speaker 1: against the run, but when you look at their secondary
Speaker 1: with Tremaine Johnson and Daryl Roberts, they're really soft in coverage.
Speaker 1: And I'm a believer in this Kellen More led offense.
Speaker 1: I think that last weekend they just kind of outsmarted themselves.
Speaker 1: They going way more pass heavy than they needed to.
Speaker 1: They should have just pounded the ball on the ground
Speaker 1: against the weak Green Bay run defense. I expect a
Speaker 1: more balanced attack here and for them to be able
Speaker 1: to score in the end. This overbet is really comes
Speaker 1: down to that. I expect the Jets to be able
Speaker 1: to put up points here. I think Dallas is likely
Speaker 1: going to match them. I expect them to win the game.
Speaker 1: So I will take the over at forty four, and
Speaker 1: I'm not taking it, but I kind of would lean
Speaker 1: the Jets plus seven. I'm not making that one of
Speaker 1: my picks, but for me, I do expect the Jets
Speaker 1: to put up points here and I Expectdoas to win
Speaker 1: and put up points right with them. So I'll take
Speaker 1: the over on the forty four.
Speaker 2: I'm convinced. And my third pick here is the Jets
Speaker 2: plus seven at the Cowboys. Oh, I think you know,
Speaker 2: home underdogs never a bad idea, especially when you're getting
Speaker 2: a full seven points. I mean, you know that that's
Speaker 2: a key number. So we look at the Cowboys here.
Speaker 2: They look to like world beaters. Those first three weeks,
Speaker 2: they beat the Giants, the Redskins, and the Dolphins, and
Speaker 2: they come back the last two weeks and they you know,
Speaker 2: lose to the Saints and the Packers, and those aren't
Speaker 2: bad losses. Those are two good teams. But I think
Speaker 2: we need to dock them a bit for just you know,
Speaker 2: the team, say, beat those first three weeks. So I
Speaker 2: think these teams are closer than that spread would indicate,
Speaker 2: especially with Sam Donald back as you mentioned. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm a Sam Donald advocate too, even if you're not,
Speaker 2: though you have to admit he's a massive, massive upgrade
Speaker 2: over Luke Falalks. I think, you know, seven points at
Speaker 2: home for the Jets is too much for them to
Speaker 2: be getting.
Speaker 1: You would be a massive upgrade over lukewal Just to
Speaker 1: be clear, Yeah, no, I agree, And I'm now rechecking
Speaker 1: my email and I see that you made that pick.
Speaker 1: So I'm glad I didn't take that back because I
Speaker 1: actually mest that in your email. Yeah, I just think
Speaker 1: you know, this was eight and a half when it
Speaker 1: first opened, and I feel like I should have jumped
Speaker 1: on it because you know, I'm not that I'm all
Speaker 1: that plugged in, but as a Jets fan, I'm following
Speaker 1: the situation pretty closely, and it certainly looked like Darnald
Speaker 1: was on track here to play. I mean, he was
Speaker 1: almost cleared last week, and I'm really bullish on the kid,
Speaker 1: you know, And I like the offense. I know that
Speaker 1: they didn't put up a ton of points against Buffalo
Speaker 1: in Week one, but you're seeing that Buffalo offense defense
Speaker 1: right now, right they're legit. So the fact that they
Speaker 1: were pretty much in control, I really think this is
Speaker 1: gonna be a good game. So I would have felt
Speaker 1: better about it had the Cowboys won last weekend. You know,
Speaker 1: I could see them being a little bit salty here
Speaker 1: as they're coming off back to back losses. But again,
Speaker 1: they've got Philly next week. That's gonna be kind of
Speaker 1: the game. I could then a bye after that, so
Speaker 1: I could see them kind of looking past us a
Speaker 1: little bit. So I like it. Jets minus seven one
Speaker 1: hundred percent agree. I'd be all over that as well.
Speaker 1: I'm glad I didn't accidentally pick that one, though, but
Speaker 1: we both like I guess I like a high scoring game.
Speaker 1: You like the Jets getting seven. Here. Now, my last
Speaker 1: pick is something that I I don't even want to say,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna say it because I have to, because
Speaker 1: that's the whole point of the show. I'm taking the
Speaker 1: Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. And yes,
Speaker 1: I feel gross about it, but I also feel gross
Speaker 1: after I order steak with a side of steak, and
Speaker 1: I'm still doing that this weekend at Peter Luger's. So
Speaker 1: you know what this line is. This line is bookmakers
Speaker 1: saying we want people to bet on this game, because
Speaker 1: nobody is betting on this game if it's at three
Speaker 1: or two and a half or anything like that. They
Speaker 1: just want to make this line that you look at
Speaker 1: and you go, wow, hmm, that's kind of interesting. And
Speaker 1: the betting breakdown when you look is pretty even overall,
Speaker 1: and both Jason Logan who's on the Monday Show, and
Speaker 1: I had the same exact reaction, and that is that
Speaker 1: I am not positive that the right team is favored here.
Speaker 1: I mean, I get it, the Dolphins have a negative
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty seven point differential, so that's not great.
Speaker 1: But the Redskins are a disaster. I mean, they just
Speaker 1: fire their head coach, and the Dolphins are an equal disaster.
Speaker 1: But Josh Rozen actually hasn't been all of that terrible,
Speaker 1: and they've played some games pretty close, particularly in the
Speaker 1: first half, like they did against Dallas. Now, there are
Speaker 1: a couple of warning signs here. First, the Redskins defensive
Speaker 1: front is not terrible. Deron Paine, John Allen, Ryan Kerrigan.
Speaker 1: They can all get to the quarterback, and that's especially
Speaker 1: true when you have a line like the Dolphins that
Speaker 1: make the Jets look like the best offensive line in
Speaker 1: the world. Second, the Redskins are starting case Keenum this week,
Speaker 1: which in my opinion, gives them the best chance to win.
Speaker 1: And if that doesn't tell you all you need to
Speaker 1: know about why I like the Dolphins here, then I
Speaker 1: don't know what. Well, now, there's these reports that have
Speaker 1: come out today about how Adrian Peterson is saying, how wow,
Speaker 1: they remind me of the Saints, and our practice is
Speaker 1: so good. You hear stuff like that all the time. Overall,
Speaker 1: I just think the Dolphins either pull this one out
Speaker 1: or they at least keep this close in a home game.
Speaker 1: Like I said, Rosen has not been terrible. Preston Williams
Speaker 1: has been a nice surprise. Devonte Parker, as always, has
Speaker 1: shown the occasional flash. I think Albert Wilson is on
Speaker 1: track to return here. And the Redskins just don't stop quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: They're worse than the league in third down QB completion
Speaker 1: percentage and passing yards allowed on third down. The Dolphins
Speaker 1: have had to buy the game plan around the defense here,
Speaker 1: and yes they are tanking, but Brian Flores can't really
Speaker 1: be okay, which is going over sixteen right? I mean?
Speaker 1: The variable? Really, the only thing that makes me even
Speaker 1: a little sort of hesitant about this one is the
Speaker 1: fact that there is the coaching change that is just
Speaker 1: a variable that you can never know how a team's
Speaker 1: gonna respond. Now, he loves to run the ball. He's
Speaker 1: been in charge of the run game all year, and
Speaker 1: the Dolphins allow four point seventy five yards per carry.
Speaker 1: So it's possible that this coach change energizes the team
Speaker 1: and they just run Adrian Peterson into the ground. But
Speaker 1: the fact that you're past that key number of three
Speaker 1: is really what does it for me? And Jason brought
Speaker 1: this out on Monday, by the way, but I do
Speaker 1: want to reiterate this in case you missed the show.
Speaker 1: If you don't want to take the Dolphins here because
Speaker 1: they're the Dolphins, I understand consider at least taking them
Speaker 1: in the first half because they do absolutely nothing in
Speaker 1: the second half, but they keep games really really close
Speaker 1: in the first half, So at least for me, I
Speaker 1: would go for it on the first half. But I
Speaker 1: am going to throw up in my mouth a little
Speaker 1: bit and take the Dolphins getting three and a half.
Speaker 2: So I think the fact that Kalahan is talking about,
Speaker 2: you know, running Adrian Peterson twenty times is good news
Speaker 2: for the Dolphins because I just don't think Adrian Peterson
Speaker 2: has anything left. So I think, you know, it, as
Speaker 2: crazy as it sounds. Case Keenum to Terry McLaurin, is
Speaker 2: you know, the Redskins best chance of moving the ball.
Speaker 2: I definitely would not be the Redskins as road favorites.
Speaker 2: That seems insane, but I just can't put money on
Speaker 2: Miami after what I've seen the first four weeks. So
Speaker 2: for me, that game and avoid.
Speaker 1: I think that's totally understandable. And the idea here, I'm
Speaker 1: not kidding that I'm saying, you know what, I really
Speaker 1: like the Dolphins getting any amount of point to anyone.
Speaker 1: But really, realistically, honestly, the Dolphins are terrible, but the
Speaker 1: Redskins are equally terrible, and the Dolphins are at home
Speaker 1: and they're getting more than the key number. That's really
Speaker 1: what it is. This is why I think, like, honestly,
Speaker 1: this was just the bookmaker saying, can we just get
Speaker 1: some action on this game somehow, whatever we need to do,
Speaker 1: throw it out there and see what happens. Because if
Speaker 1: it's two and a half, you're just like, eh, I
Speaker 1: don't want any of this at all. But right now
Speaker 1: with this, it's getting a fair amount of action. From
Speaker 1: what I can see, it's roughly split down the middle,
Speaker 1: exactly what they want. So I am going to really
Speaker 1: just feel grotesque all week and long, but I am
Speaker 1: going to hear take the Dolphins getting three and a half.
Speaker 1: So let's recap here before we move on. You've got
Speaker 1: the Falcons and Cardinals. I believe it was at fifty one.
Speaker 1: Is that writers fifty one and a half?
Speaker 3: Yep, fifty one last.
Speaker 1: But as you said, you would take it over sixty
Speaker 1: right here, all about it, right, there's no number that
Speaker 1: could scare you off that.
Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, fifty four. I'd still feel good betting
Speaker 2: the over.
Speaker 1: My goodness, all right, pour all your money into that
Speaker 1: and blame Jared when you lose Falcons of Cardinals over
Speaker 1: fifty one, the Chiefs who are now laying four to
Speaker 1: the Texans, and the Jets plus seven against the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: which I heartily endorse. All right. As for me, I
Speaker 1: am taking the Jaguars and Saints under forty three and
Speaker 1: a half, the Jets and the Cowboys over forty four,
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. Now,
Speaker 1: before we move on, I want to tell everyone about
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Speaker 1: It's a trap where we list the line we are
Speaker 1: avoiding this weekend. Now you already mentioned the Dolphins, but
Speaker 1: you can't choose that one, obviously, go ahead, what else
Speaker 1: you got.
Speaker 2: I'm really tempted to take Carolina minus two. You know
Speaker 2: they they they lost to Tampa in that Week two game,
Speaker 2: but you know they were, you know, a yard away
Speaker 2: from that touchdown that would I think gave them the lead,
Speaker 2: and Cam Newton was playing on you know, one foot
Speaker 2: in that game. My concern here is that this game
Speaker 2: is in London. I mean, if this game was in
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, I take Carolina minus too. But these London games,
Speaker 2: I just feel like there's always something funky going on.
Speaker 2: We saw last week the Raiders beating the Bears. I
Speaker 2: think if that if that game is anywhere in the
Speaker 2: in the US, the Bears win that game. But you
Speaker 2: know something about London, I think add some volatility to
Speaker 2: these games. I'm just gonna avoid Panthers Box, even though
Speaker 2: I do think the Panthers come out with a win there.
Speaker 1: Oh so that's interesting. So you would feel better about
Speaker 1: the Panthers if they were actually in Tampa Bay as
Speaker 1: opposed to playing in London.
Speaker 3: I would, yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, come on, the Bucks don't have much of
Speaker 2: a home field advantage anyways.
Speaker 1: Boy, my best friend is a Bucks fan. He is
Speaker 1: going to be mad when we listen to this. And
Speaker 1: I will say that again, this is what I like
Speaker 1: in tracking these lines. The line has moved. It's now
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus two and a half. I assume that
Speaker 1: that doesn't do anything for you, considering you like Carolina.
Speaker 1: But it's interesting when you look at the breakdown on
Speaker 1: betting pros dot com. And this is what I love
Speaker 1: to do, because I gotta be honest. We've had to
Speaker 1: run a fantastic guess on the show. You included buddy,
Speaker 1: You're You're great. It's fifty one percent Tampa Bay forty
Speaker 1: nine percent. Carolina. So the betting experts are basically split
Speaker 1: right down the middle, which I always think is perfect
Speaker 1: when you're talking about a game to avoid, because nobody
Speaker 1: really knows what's going on. So I'm fine with that.
Speaker 1: I agree with that. By the way, London certainly adds
Speaker 1: a variable to it, and you never really know what
Speaker 1: to expect. London's oddly, you know interesting. I've been over
Speaker 1: there when the Jets played the Dolphins, and whoever is
Speaker 1: the home team, they really do come out to support,
Speaker 1: so it's almost quasi like a home game for the
Speaker 1: Bucks over there, and as you said, their regular home
Speaker 1: field advantage hasn't been all that great, Lily. But I
Speaker 1: think that's a really good pick for me. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: avoid the Broncos laying two to the Titans now, I
Speaker 1: think probably I can skip this segment altogether at this
Speaker 1: point in any future episode and say that I am
Speaker 1: always avoiding the Titans no matter what, because I don't
Speaker 1: know what I am going to see from the Titans. Ever.
Speaker 1: They have a really strong defense, but they are the
Speaker 1: most frustrating team I've had to watch in a while. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Broncos are much better than their record and they've
Speaker 1: lost several close games. I think Tennessee is probably the
Speaker 1: slightly better team here overall, but I have absolutely no
Speaker 1: confidence and who is going to win this game in Denver.
Speaker 1: I'm totally out on it, and I'm sorry sportsbooks, if
Speaker 1: you're listening. I'm advising people probably never to bet on
Speaker 1: a Titans game either way, because I feel like you
Speaker 1: just don't know what you're gonna get.
Speaker 3: I'm with it there.
Speaker 2: I don't think I've gotten Marcus Mariota right from a
Speaker 2: fantasy perspective all year. I agree with you that Tennessee
Speaker 2: is a better team. Denver tends to play well at
Speaker 2: home that I know. They've lost a couple of heartbreakers
Speaker 2: at home so far. I kind of think Denver pulls
Speaker 2: out the win there. But I'm with you, I'm staying
Speaker 2: away from that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if the Broncos were getting a couple
Speaker 1: of points, because you can see them right, they're in
Speaker 1: the end a team that can like they did with
Speaker 1: the Jaguars right dominating the game and they just find
Speaker 1: a way to kind of let it go. They didn't
Speaker 1: against Los Angeles this weekend. But they're just not a
Speaker 1: team that you can feel confident and at home. It's
Speaker 1: a tough place to play. It always has been. But
Speaker 1: really that's the thing you don't Sometimes Mariota shows up
Speaker 1: and you're like, wow, look at this. This is a
Speaker 1: you know, this offense looks fantastic. But at this point
Speaker 1: I just feel like it's a complete shot in the dark.
Speaker 1: So I'm avoiding them. So I am avoiding the Titans
Speaker 1: getting to from the Broncos, and you are avoiding the
Speaker 1: Panthers who are actually laying two and a half to
Speaker 1: the Bucks in London. Now, real quick, before we get
Speaker 1: to our final segment, I do want to remind everyone
Speaker 1: about our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara Helme and courtesy of our good friends over at
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction. You got a couple more weeks to enter. Actually,
Speaker 1: at this point that's not true. You have a few
Speaker 1: more days to enter, so go ahead and do so.
Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or
Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest
Speaker 1: at betting pros dot com. If you entered last month's contest,
Speaker 1: you're already in, so no worries there, all right, Jared,
Speaker 1: it is time for Top prop where we list our
Speaker 1: top player prop of the week. As I said, I
Speaker 1: won the DeAndre Hopkins bet last week on a garbage
Speaker 1: time toss, so I am feeling very confident in mine.
Speaker 1: You can go first, though.
Speaker 2: All right, I'm going back to that Falcons Cardinals game,
Speaker 2: which I love. I'm going Matt Ryan over three hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty passing yards. I'm getting plus one forty six
Speaker 2: on it. Obviously a big number, three hundred and fifty yards.
Speaker 2: Ryan's already averaging three hundred and thirty one yards per
Speaker 2: game this season. He's tied for the lead league with
Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty two pass attempts. And I really
Speaker 2: don't think that's a fluke. I mean, this Falcons team
Speaker 2: is a pass heavy offense. They're fifth in situation neutral
Speaker 2: pass right, So that that's you know, when when the
Speaker 2: game is within one score, when the game flow is
Speaker 2: in dictating play calling, that the Falcons are throwing it
Speaker 2: at the fifth fifth highest rate. I think there should
Speaker 2: be another pass heavy game against the Cardinals, who, like
Speaker 2: we've said, are still missing Patrick Peterson. They're still missing
Speaker 2: Robert all for two, their number two cornerback who's on
Speaker 2: IR right now. So lots of plays, lots of passing.
Speaker 2: Good matchup for Matt Ryan. I think he goes over
Speaker 2: three fifty.
Speaker 1: I mean three plus one forty six. When you're over
Speaker 1: three fifty, you know, when you don't think about the situation,
Speaker 1: or you don't think about the quarterback, or you don't
Speaker 1: think about all the stats. Sounds crazy, right, You're like
Speaker 1: three fifty. Geez, what are you going to do there?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 1: I believe I think last week Greg Smith might have
Speaker 1: taken Kyler Murray over three fifty, which was at like
Speaker 1: plus four hundred or something crazy, right, which he didn't
Speaker 1: win unfortunately. But yeah, that's the thing. I mean, Ryan
Speaker 1: basically does that. You know every other game. This game
Speaker 1: is going to be high scoring, as you said, So
Speaker 1: I like that one actually a lot.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: When you first said it, I thought of the one
Speaker 1: forty six, so I was like, three point fifty that's
Speaker 1: just not enough. But really it, particular with Matt Ryan
Speaker 1: and in this game, I do like it a lot.
Speaker 1: So that's a good one for me. I'm going to
Speaker 1: go a little more conservative and I'm going to take
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards at
Speaker 1: minus one fourteen. Now, Diggs did not have a great
Speaker 1: game last week, and he has topped this total just
Speaker 1: one time this season. But the bottom line is that
Speaker 1: the Eagle strength is really their run defense. So I
Speaker 1: expect the Vikings to need to go to the air
Speaker 1: a little bit more on Sunday. So why Digs over Thilan? Well, first,
Speaker 1: Thelan's number is higher, It's somewhere in the seventies. But basically,
Speaker 1: Diggs has seen seven targets in two games this year.
Speaker 1: Every other game he's maxed out at four. He's seen
Speaker 1: the seven targets in games against the Packers and against
Speaker 1: the Bears, and in both games, Cousins was pressured and
Speaker 1: needed to get rid of the ball really quickly. And
Speaker 1: that is what I see happening here. I see Diggs
Speaker 1: getting a lot of targets, most of them quick as
Speaker 1: the Eagles pass, russ is going to be able to
Speaker 1: get to Cousins. With Minnesota's weak offensive line, neither Russell
Speaker 1: Douglas nor Craig James can really hang with Diggs at
Speaker 1: this point. I don't think we're gonna see one hundred
Speaker 1: yard game necessarily or anything like that, but something in
Speaker 1: the seventy to eighty range, especially given that Feelan got
Speaker 1: the squeaky wheel treatment last week. I think the squeaky
Speaker 1: wheel treatment is probably coming digs way anyway this week,
Speaker 1: but especially I think this game, in particular because of
Speaker 1: the pass rush, sets up well for him, because I
Speaker 1: think he excels when Cousins needs to get the ball
Speaker 1: out quick. So I will buy something in the seventy
Speaker 1: to eighty range, which means I'm taking Stefan Diggs over
Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half yards M minus one fourteen.
Speaker 2: The fact that Diggs over under is fifty nine and
Speaker 2: a half yards against the Eagles is just very sad.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just getting wasted in that offense. He
Speaker 2: is such a good player. I mean, I if I'm
Speaker 2: the Vikings, and I know they want to be a
Speaker 2: run first offense, but in this matchup, the Eagles are
Speaker 2: so good against the run and so bad against the pass,
Speaker 2: the Vikings really should throw up more than we've seen
Speaker 2: over the past, you know, the first five weeks of
Speaker 2: this season.
Speaker 3: So I like that bat with Diggs over fifty nine
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the end, I think they're gonna be a
Speaker 1: little more of a balanced team. I get that they
Speaker 1: want to run. I get that that's what they want
Speaker 1: to do and lean on their defense, and I don't
Speaker 1: really have a ton of faith in the Philadelphia offense.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think if people are taking a ton
Speaker 1: of positives from last week's game against the Jets, I
Speaker 1: think that's crazy because I did not think they look
Speaker 1: good whatsoever. Again, you know, anybody could go out there
Speaker 1: and beat the Jets with Luke Falk starting. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of it was on their defense. I don't
Speaker 1: really love their you know, offense really at all, especially
Speaker 1: against a tough defense like the Vikings. So I'm a
Speaker 1: little worried about the game flow in this game being
Speaker 1: something where well, it could just be sort of a close,
Speaker 1: low scoring game and they still will rely on the
Speaker 1: run the Vikings because that's kind of what they like
Speaker 1: to do. But in the end, I think last week
Speaker 1: what we saw and look, I get that it was
Speaker 1: a super soft matchup against the Giants, But I think
Speaker 1: they look better when they're a little more balanced and
Speaker 1: they throw a little bit more. And I think they
Speaker 1: know that. And I think Diggs is not getting traded
Speaker 1: this year. He's just not not with that contract. They
Speaker 1: need him. He's a great player, as you said, and
Speaker 1: I think in the end, not only are they going
Speaker 1: to make a little bit more of an effort to
Speaker 1: get him the ball, but I think in particular this
Speaker 1: game sets up really well for him, so hopefully the
Speaker 1: fact I agree the number is preposterously low, but again,
Speaker 1: he's topped it once once this entire season, so it
Speaker 1: isn't something that's a short thing by any means. But
Speaker 1: I definitely feel that given the game flow, it's going
Speaker 1: to be a winner. So you are taking Matt Ryan
Speaker 1: over three hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one
Speaker 1: forty six, which I also really like, and I'll take
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards at
Speaker 1: minus one fourteen. Well, that is going to do it
Speaker 1: for today's show. Thanks for joining me, Jared. Can you
Speaker 1: remind everyone where they can find more of you and
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can check out my fantasy football stuff over
Speaker 2: at draft Sharks dot com and then you can follow
Speaker 2: me on Twitter at smola DS. It's smola DS.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on. I hope we
Speaker 1: can talk again soon later in the season.
Speaker 3: It'd be great. Thanks for having me, all.
Speaker 1: Right, I want to remind everyone about bet MGM, where
Speaker 1: you can place your first wager of up to five
Speaker 1: hundred dollars risk free. And don't forget to leave a
Speaker 1: sort review on iTunes or Stitcher and send it screenshot
Speaker 1: of that review to be entered into our Alvin Kamara
Speaker 1: signed helmet giveaway. It ends in just a few days.
Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends,
Speaker 1: we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.