1 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros 2 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, 3 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: Harris Adi. It is time to break down some of 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,479 Speaker 1: our favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: six NFL slate. With me to talk about it all 7 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: is Jared Smola, a senior editor over at Draft Sharks 8 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: dot com. You can find him on Twitter at smola 9 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: ds now. Jared is the nineteenth most accurate sports better 10 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: over at Bettingpros dot com, and that is out of 11 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight experts. Guys, he is no 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: joke now. Full disclosure, I'm thirty first, So if you 13 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: sense a little bad blood on the show, it's because 14 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: I don't particularly like people who are purportedly better at 15 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: things than I am. Nevertheless, Jared and I have agreed 16 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: to bury the hatchet for the next forty or forty 17 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: five minutes or so and to try to offer some 18 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: solid betting advice for Week six. Jared, thanks a lot 19 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: for coming on the show. How's it going? 20 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on. It's going good. We're only 21 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: five weeks into the season. So there's still plenty of 22 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: time for me to fall down those rankings. 23 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: Yeah. I haven't been following your rankings closely obviously, but 24 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: have you like just been up there from the entire beginning. 25 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: Did you have a couple of good weeks, a couple 26 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: of bad weeks or what. 27 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: I actually had a really good week last week. I 28 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: think that boosts me up like twenty or so spots. 29 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, the last couple of weeks have been really, really, 30 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: really difficult. So I mean for you to come out 31 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: ahead there is good. So full disclosure, you and I 32 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: need to write the ship here, okay, because we had 33 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:31,960 Speaker 1: a raging hot week on this show for the first 34 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, but we have slowly sunk into mediocrity. 35 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: Last week, I missed on both the over in the 36 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: Broncos Chargers game and the under in the Cowboys Packers game. 37 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: And I'm just gonna lay this out there. I believe 38 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: I went over on every single over under that I 39 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: picked last week and on bettingbros dot Com. And that's 40 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: funny because I actually had rarely missed them at any 41 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: point before last week. I just did not have a 42 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: good sense for the amount of points that We're going 43 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: to be scored in Week five, Jared, But thankfully I 44 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: told everyone to bet their mortgage on Minnesota Lane five 45 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: to the Giants, and a late garbage time DeAndre Hopkins 46 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: catch won me the over under eighty six and a 47 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: half yard prop bet, which means I do not have 48 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: to do this entire show with a British accent like 49 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: I had agreed to do had I lost our guest 50 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: Greg Smith had a rougher week, so Jared, you've got 51 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: to get us back on track. It is a big task. 52 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: Are you ready. 53 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: I'm feeling pretty good about this slate, so let's do 54 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: it all right. 55 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where 56 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: both Jared and I are going to give three of 57 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread 58 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 1: or on the over under. And as always, I'm going 59 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: to note that we're recording this shortly before the Thursday 60 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: night game between the Patriots and the Giants, so we 61 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: are not going to be making any picks on that game. 62 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: But I have to be honest, I think the Pats 63 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: are gonna pull it out, so it's just one of 64 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: those gut feelings I've got tonight. So Let's hope that 65 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: that's right, and if not, you'll know that I was 66 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:47,839 Speaker 1: wrong on that one. Anyway, if you want to see 67 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: how I or Jared pick that game, you can go 68 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show you how 69 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: basically every betting expert who makes picks on the site 70 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 1: made their picks for that and every other game. We're 71 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: also going to be using the bettingpros dot com consensus 72 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: odds in making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds 73 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: that you're gonna find available in the market. All right, Jared, 74 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 1: start us off. What's your first pick here? 75 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: I'm going Falcons Cardinals over fifty one, and you know, 76 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 2: really they they couldn't have made this over under high 77 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: enough for me. 78 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 3: I was gonna hit the over no matter what. 79 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 2: So when looking at over unders, obviously you're gonna look 80 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: at the quality of the offenses and the defenses in 81 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: the game, but that stuff is baked into the numbers set, you. 82 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 3: Know, by Vegas. 83 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 2: So the stuff I like to look at for over 84 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: unders is the offensive pace of the two teams, you know, 85 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: how fast they play, and also the passing rates, because 86 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 2: first of all, we know passing is more efficient leads 87 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: to more points. It also helps too, because if you 88 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: throw the ball, you're either gonna gain yards or if 89 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 2: it's incomplete, it's gonna stop the clock. So when you're 90 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 2: looking at, you know, games to bet over, I think 91 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: you want to bet fast paced teams that throw the 92 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: ball a lot. And that describes the Falcons and Cardinals perfectly. 93 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: These teams both rate rank top six in seconds per snap. 94 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 2: They're both top five Football Outsider situation neutral pass rate. Sorry, 95 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: they're both top five in situation neutral pace, and they're 96 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 2: both top ten in situation neutral pass rate. So I 97 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: think you're gonna get a lot of snaps, a lot 98 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: of passing, and a lot of points in this game. 99 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: So a couple things here. First of all, how we 100 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: do the podcast is I tell the guests to forward 101 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: me their bets shortly before the show to make sure 102 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: that I do not pick the same ones, just because 103 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: you know, I as much as I could say, well 104 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: we'll do a draw, you pick one, I pick one, 105 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: you know, let the guests pick whatever they want. This 106 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: certainly would have been one of my picks. I just 107 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,039 Speaker 1: want to put that out there. I think it's a 108 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: great bet, and I you know, first of all, everybody 109 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: pretty much is on board. When you look at the 110 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: betting pros dot com break down, sixty six percent are 111 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: on the over. But I believe I can't be sure. 112 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 1: I look the lines when they first open. I mean, 113 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: I think this opened at like forty seven or forty 114 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: eight or something there, so it has moved dramatically up. 115 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: So you would have loved it. I'm sure if you 116 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: could have gotten in there. From everyone I've talked to, 117 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: all the money is coming in here on the over, 118 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,359 Speaker 1: so I agree. I think I think it's a great bet. 119 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: I think, you know, the Falcons are also desperate for 120 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: a win. I think they're gonna pull out all the stops. 121 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: They just don't have the talent on defense right now 122 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: once Can O'Neil went out. They always have the injuries, 123 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: and of course we know especially I think this is 124 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: the last game without Patrick Peterson for the Cardinals. I 125 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 1: think he had a six game suspension. So I agree. 126 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a shoot out, and I 127 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: love the bet. I'm a little annoyed that you stole it, 128 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna come up with something that's equally as compelling, 129 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: and that is the Jaguars and the Saints under forty 130 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: three and a half. I'm kidding, that's not in any 131 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,359 Speaker 1: way compelling full disclosure. I obviously made my picks a 132 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 1: bit earlier in the day, and when I made this pick, 133 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: the line was actually at forty four and a half, 134 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: not forty three and a half. So I'm a little 135 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: less bullish on this now that it's under forty three 136 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: and a half. But shop around there are still some 137 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: forty four's on it, and I locked in my pick 138 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot Com at forty four. Now, first of all, 139 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: for now I'm banking on Jalen Ramsey playing here. It's 140 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: a bit up in the air, but it kind of 141 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: looks like things are trending in that direction. And it's 142 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: not as if I think he's just gonna be able 143 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: to completely shut down Michael Thomas single handedly or anything, 144 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: but I think that his presence drastically improves that defense. 145 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: And even if he doesn't, I would still take the 146 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: forty three under forty three and a half because in 147 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: the end, I think this comes down to two relatively 148 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: strong defenses against two relatively mediocre offenses. I mean, you 149 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 1: look at the Saints last week Bridgewater edited that aired 150 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: it out completely, but that was basically just Sean Payton 151 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 1: attacking a glaring weakness in his opponent. The Bucks are 152 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: strong against the run, they cannot in any way stop 153 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 1: the pass. That is not the case with the Jaguars. 154 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: I'm sure Bridgewater is gonna go back to what he 155 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: usually does here with an extraordinarily low average depth of target, 156 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,799 Speaker 1: and the Jaguars are particularly good at defending receivers after 157 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: the catch on the ground. I know Christian McCaffrey tore 158 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: up the Jaguars last weekend, but overall they've generally been 159 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: solid against the run. And I watched that game closely 160 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: because I had a lot of action on the Panthers 161 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 1: laying three and a half, but it looked more to 162 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: me like breakdowns in communication, poor gaptis by the linebackers 163 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: and the safeties. I didn't really see, all of a sudden, 164 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: some glaring weaknesses in their run defense, so I expect 165 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: that to kind of be cleaned up. And of course 166 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: news broke shortly before we were coming on that. Alvin 167 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: Kamara popped up on the injury report today with an 168 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: ankle injury. So that's never good when you see somebody 169 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: come up. He's purportedly going to be fine, but either way, 170 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: he's going to be a little limited. Now the Jaguars 171 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: are coming back home here after a few road games. 172 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: They're still an exciting team with Garterer Minshew leading the way, 173 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: and the crowd's going to be into it, and I 174 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: expect them to put up a solid defensive performance. And 175 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: they're also getting a lot of money by being a 176 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: small underdog here with the spread, so I think that 177 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: sharpbetters probably expect them to come ahead, and I think 178 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: that probably means that they expect a low scoring game. 179 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: Now on the other side, we know the Saints defense. 180 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: They're excellent against the run. Marshaun Lantimore basically takes out 181 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: your number one wide receiver. James O'Shaughnessy is out for 182 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: the year with his ACL tear, and he had become 183 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: kind of a reliable option for Minshew. So that's one 184 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: peg down on the offensive side. This just strikes me 185 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: as a hard hitting, close game that's going to be 186 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: relatively low scoring, kind of closer to what the Saints 187 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: and the Cowboys put on. So I'm going to roll 188 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: here with the under forty three and a half. 189 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 2: I love that call. I'll add one thing. I talked 190 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 2: about the Falcons and Cardinals both being fast paced teams. 191 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 2: The Saints and the Jags are both slow paced teams. 192 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 2: They ranked twenty fifth and twenty ninth in situation. Now 193 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 2: shrall pay so I think I think you know the 194 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 2: play volume is going to be down in this game. 195 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: Already we are completely on the same page as this 196 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: fantastic I'm gonna love whatever your second pick is. I 197 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: love it already. 198 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 2: Go ahead, Chiefs minus four versus the Texans at home 199 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 2: for the Texans importantly, and the Lion seems to be 200 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 2: moving against me here this I think this line opened 201 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 2: at like five. 202 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 3: And a half. 203 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, no. Just to be clear, 204 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: this opened at eight, at eight eight, because I did 205 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: it on Monday and we looked at it eight and 206 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: it dropped to five almost immediately after that Sunday night, 207 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: it opened at eight and boom, they hit it down 208 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: to five. 209 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 3: Like, yeah, five, eight eight is too much. 210 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I'd take Houston plus eight, but I think 211 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 2: you know, especially now, and it's down to four, which 212 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 2: is a pretty key number. I just think this is 213 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: a recent and see bias. 214 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 3: Bet. 215 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 2: I mean we all just saw the Tuxan smash, Atlanta 216 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: put up that huge offensive performance, and then we all 217 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 2: just watched the Chiefs lose at home in prime time 218 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 2: to the Colts. Prior to last week, though the Chiefs 219 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 2: were nine and two in their last eleven home games 220 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 2: dating back to the start of last season, they outscored 221 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: their opponents by an average of twelve points per game 222 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 2: in those home games. So I'm just gonna bet on 223 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 2: the Chiefs bouncing back at home. I don't think they're 224 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 2: going to lose two games in a row, especially at home. 225 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 2: So I think, you know, minus four, with that offense, 226 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: I think they can cover that four points. 227 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: I cannot believe this has dropped to minus four. I mean, 228 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: that's a ridiculous drop from the fact that it opened 229 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:39,319 Speaker 1: up at minus tate. Now, let me ask you, I 230 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,959 Speaker 1: haven't seen anything today. We were talking before this. I've 231 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: been really busy on the day. Is Hill cleared to play? 232 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 1: Does he look? I know he was limited in practice. 233 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: I believe yesterday. I didn't see anything about today. 234 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, he was limited again on Thursday. So as far 235 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 2: as we know, you know, he hasn't got that final 236 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: clearance to play. Sammy Watkins miss practice again on Thursdays. 237 00:09:57,760 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 1: There's no way Sammy Watkins is going to play in 238 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: this game after essentially being a zero in the last 239 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: game out of curiosity. If He'll can't suit up and 240 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: Watkins can set it up, because I'm pretty sure Watkins 241 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: is not gonna be able to. Does that at all 242 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: damper your enthusiasm for this bet? 243 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 2: It would make me think twice about it. Who knows, 244 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 2: maybe the line drops to three if that happens. I'm 245 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 2: just betting on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and just how 246 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: good the Chiefs have been at home really for a 247 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 2: while now, and. 248 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: Especially you know, dating back to the start of last season. 249 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Sunday Night was pretty shocking. I think 250 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: the book's probably won a crazy amount given that Indy 251 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: one outright let alone, you know, covering the betters are 252 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: with you sixty seven percent on betting pros dot com, 253 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: the experts are going with you, and you know, we 254 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: have a breakdown between the general betting experts that we 255 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: have and the top twenty percent most accurate, which of 256 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: course Jared is part of as am I and they're 257 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: with you too, is sixty four percent. So this looks 258 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 1: like something that's generally going to be thought of. I agree. 259 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: My one concern, honestly, above the wide receivers is whether 260 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: Mahomes is fully healthy. I know he hanged up his 261 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: ankle a little bit again in the last game. But 262 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, man. This is something where 263 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: you know, before last week, nobody was that excited about 264 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: the Texans, right, and they come out and they destroy 265 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: a team that has no defense whatsoever. I mean, the 266 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: Falcons are laughable at this point given all their injuries. 267 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: So I think people got a little too excited about it. Arrowhead, 268 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: despite the Sunday night dud is still one of the 269 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: toughest places to play. So I'm with you as it's four. 270 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: I was a little concerned at five and a half 271 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: when it was there. Certainly eight I was. I was 272 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: with the Texans. But once it's down to four now, 273 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: which actually I didn't even see until shortly before because 274 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: when I checked before it was five, that's a good bet. 275 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: So I'm back in you there. I'm gonna stick with 276 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: the over unders, considering I need to get back on 277 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: the train after last week, and I'm going to go 278 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: with the Cowboys and my Jets over forty four. And 279 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: again this is one where earlier in the day when 280 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: I took the bet, it was at forty three. Now 281 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: it's at forty four. I'm again not quite as bullish 282 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: as I was, but I'm still going to take the 283 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: over here now. As I said, I'm a jetsman by nature, 284 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: I am pessimistic. I am more than willing to kill 285 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: this team as I do with my cousins on an 286 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: ongoing four year tech string. But I mean, you throw 287 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,719 Speaker 1: out every single thing that you have seen from the 288 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: Jets offense right now, throw it all out. Luke Falk 289 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: is not an NFL quarterback. I am a full believer 290 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: in Sam Darnold, and although I don't think he's going 291 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: to be at full strength here. It takes a while 292 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 1: to be clear from Mono. Even after your quote unquote cleared, 293 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: it takes a while to be recovered. And Chris Herndon 294 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: is down. But I think Darnold has shown chemistry with 295 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 1: both Jameson Crowder and Robbie Anderson in the past, and 296 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 1: the Cowboys in particular. They let up a lot of 297 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: completions and a lot of yards after the catch. They're 298 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: not a team that you can usually throw deep on 299 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 1: but they do allow a ton of underneath stuff, and 300 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: I think that works well for the offense that m. 301 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: Gase wants to run, and particularly with the presence of Crowder. 302 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 1: As a general matter, the Cowboys achilles heel in general 303 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: is pass catching running backs. That's basically what we're looking 304 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 1: at here with Le'Veon Bell. The Cowboys just struggled as 305 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 1: a tackling team as a general matter, like Bell is 306 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: going to continue to get fed and he's probably going 307 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 1: to do some damage. And look, the Jets have an 308 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: abysmal offensive line, like one of the worst in the NFL, 309 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: but the Cowboys rarely blitz just seventeen point six percent 310 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: of the time, and even when they do break through, 311 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: which they will, of course, Darnold has some elusiveness so 312 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 1: he can extend plays even when the line breaks down. Plus, 313 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 1: Dallas plays the Eagles next week, and I think they 314 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: could potentially be looking past this game now. On the 315 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: flip side, the Jets defense is getting a little healthier. 316 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: They're still down CJ. Moseley, and it sounds like Tyron 317 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: Smith is probably going to be back here, which really 318 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: is a huge difference maker on the Dallas offensive line. 319 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 1: Now Collins may miss another game, so the offensive line 320 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 1: isn't at full strength, but the Jets have six sacks 321 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: all season. They're not exactly going to be pressuring Dak 322 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: no matter who is up there. They're actually pretty stout 323 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: against the run, but when you look at their secondary 324 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: with Tremaine Johnson and Daryl Roberts, they're really soft in coverage. 325 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: And I'm a believer in this Kellen More led offense. 326 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: I think that last weekend they just kind of outsmarted themselves. 327 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: They going way more pass heavy than they needed to. 328 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,199 Speaker 1: They should have just pounded the ball on the ground 329 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: against the weak Green Bay run defense. I expect a 330 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: more balanced attack here and for them to be able 331 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,839 Speaker 1: to score in the end. This overbet is really comes 332 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: down to that. I expect the Jets to be able 333 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 1: to put up points here. I think Dallas is likely 334 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: going to match them. I expect them to win the game. 335 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: So I will take the over at forty four, and 336 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: I'm not taking it, but I kind of would lean 337 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: the Jets plus seven. I'm not making that one of 338 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: my picks, but for me, I do expect the Jets 339 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: to put up points here and I Expectdoas to win 340 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: and put up points right with them. So I'll take 341 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: the over on the forty four. 342 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 2: I'm convinced. And my third pick here is the Jets 343 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 2: plus seven at the Cowboys. Oh, I think you know, 344 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 2: home underdogs never a bad idea, especially when you're getting 345 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 2: a full seven points. I mean, you know that that's 346 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: a key number. So we look at the Cowboys here. 347 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: They look to like world beaters. Those first three weeks, 348 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 2: they beat the Giants, the Redskins, and the Dolphins, and 349 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 2: they come back the last two weeks and they you know, 350 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 2: lose to the Saints and the Packers, and those aren't 351 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 2: bad losses. Those are two good teams. But I think 352 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 2: we need to dock them a bit for just you know, 353 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 2: the team, say, beat those first three weeks. So I 354 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 2: think these teams are closer than that spread would indicate, 355 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 2: especially with Sam Donald back as you mentioned. I mean, 356 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: I'm a Sam Donald advocate too, even if you're not, 357 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 2: though you have to admit he's a massive, massive upgrade 358 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: over Luke Falalks. I think, you know, seven points at 359 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 2: home for the Jets is too much for them to 360 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 2: be getting. 361 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: You would be a massive upgrade over lukewal Just to 362 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: be clear, Yeah, no, I agree, And I'm now rechecking 363 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: my email and I see that you made that pick. 364 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: So I'm glad I didn't take that back because I 365 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: actually mest that in your email. Yeah, I just think 366 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: you know, this was eight and a half when it 367 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: first opened, and I feel like I should have jumped 368 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: on it because you know, I'm not that I'm all 369 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: that plugged in, but as a Jets fan, I'm following 370 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: the situation pretty closely, and it certainly looked like Darnald 371 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: was on track here to play. I mean, he was 372 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: almost cleared last week, and I'm really bullish on the kid, 373 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: you know, And I like the offense. I know that 374 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: they didn't put up a ton of points against Buffalo 375 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: in Week one, but you're seeing that Buffalo offense defense 376 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: right now, right they're legit. So the fact that they 377 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: were pretty much in control, I really think this is 378 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: gonna be a good game. So I would have felt 379 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: better about it had the Cowboys won last weekend. You know, 380 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: I could see them being a little bit salty here 381 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: as they're coming off back to back losses. But again, 382 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: they've got Philly next week. That's gonna be kind of 383 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: the game. I could then a bye after that, so 384 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: I could see them kind of looking past us a 385 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: little bit. So I like it. Jets minus seven one 386 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: hundred percent agree. I'd be all over that as well. 387 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: I'm glad I didn't accidentally pick that one, though, but 388 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: we both like I guess I like a high scoring game. 389 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: You like the Jets getting seven. Here. Now, my last 390 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: pick is something that I I don't even want to say, 391 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna say it because I have to, because 392 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: that's the whole point of the show. I'm taking the 393 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. And yes, 394 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: I feel gross about it, but I also feel gross 395 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: after I order steak with a side of steak, and 396 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: I'm still doing that this weekend at Peter Luger's. So 397 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: you know what this line is. This line is bookmakers 398 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: saying we want people to bet on this game, because 399 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: nobody is betting on this game if it's at three 400 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: or two and a half or anything like that. They 401 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: just want to make this line that you look at 402 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 1: and you go, wow, hmm, that's kind of interesting. And 403 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: the betting breakdown when you look is pretty even overall, 404 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: and both Jason Logan who's on the Monday Show, and 405 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:11,919 Speaker 1: I had the same exact reaction, and that is that 406 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: I am not positive that the right team is favored here. 407 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I get it, the Dolphins have a negative 408 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty seven point differential, so that's not great. 409 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: But the Redskins are a disaster. I mean, they just 410 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 1: fire their head coach, and the Dolphins are an equal disaster. 411 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: But Josh Rozen actually hasn't been all of that terrible, 412 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: and they've played some games pretty close, particularly in the 413 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: first half, like they did against Dallas. Now, there are 414 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 1: a couple of warning signs here. First, the Redskins defensive 415 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: front is not terrible. Deron Paine, John Allen, Ryan Kerrigan. 416 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: They can all get to the quarterback, and that's especially 417 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: true when you have a line like the Dolphins that 418 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: make the Jets look like the best offensive line in 419 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 1: the world. Second, the Redskins are starting case Keenum this week, 420 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: which in my opinion, gives them the best chance to win. 421 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: And if that doesn't tell you all you need to 422 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: know about why I like the Dolphins here, then I 423 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: don't know what. Well, now, there's these reports that have 424 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: come out today about how Adrian Peterson is saying, how wow, 425 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: they remind me of the Saints, and our practice is 426 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: so good. You hear stuff like that all the time. Overall, 427 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: I just think the Dolphins either pull this one out 428 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: or they at least keep this close in a home game. 429 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: Like I said, Rosen has not been terrible. Preston Williams 430 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: has been a nice surprise. Devonte Parker, as always, has 431 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: shown the occasional flash. I think Albert Wilson is on 432 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: track to return here. And the Redskins just don't stop quarterbacks. 433 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 1: They're worse than the league in third down QB completion 434 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: percentage and passing yards allowed on third down. The Dolphins 435 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: have had to buy the game plan around the defense here, 436 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: and yes they are tanking, but Brian Flores can't really 437 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: be okay, which is going over sixteen right? I mean? 438 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: The variable? Really, the only thing that makes me even 439 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 1: a little sort of hesitant about this one is the 440 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: fact that there is the coaching change that is just 441 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: a variable that you can never know how a team's 442 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: gonna respond. Now, he loves to run the ball. He's 443 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: been in charge of the run game all year, and 444 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,399 Speaker 1: the Dolphins allow four point seventy five yards per carry. 445 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 1: So it's possible that this coach change energizes the team 446 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 1: and they just run Adrian Peterson into the ground. But 447 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: the fact that you're past that key number of three 448 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: is really what does it for me? And Jason brought 449 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: this out on Monday, by the way, but I do 450 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: want to reiterate this in case you missed the show. 451 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: If you don't want to take the Dolphins here because 452 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: they're the Dolphins, I understand consider at least taking them 453 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: in the first half because they do absolutely nothing in 454 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: the second half, but they keep games really really close 455 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: in the first half, So at least for me, I 456 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: would go for it on the first half. But I 457 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: am going to throw up in my mouth a little 458 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: bit and take the Dolphins getting three and a half. 459 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 2: So I think the fact that Kalahan is talking about, 460 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 2: you know, running Adrian Peterson twenty times is good news 461 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 2: for the Dolphins because I just don't think Adrian Peterson 462 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 2: has anything left. So I think, you know, it, as 463 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 2: crazy as it sounds. Case Keenum to Terry McLaurin, is 464 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 2: you know, the Redskins best chance of moving the ball. 465 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: I definitely would not be the Redskins as road favorites. 466 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: That seems insane, but I just can't put money on 467 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 2: Miami after what I've seen the first four weeks. So 468 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 2: for me, that game and avoid. 469 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: I think that's totally understandable. And the idea here, I'm 470 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: not kidding that I'm saying, you know what, I really 471 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: like the Dolphins getting any amount of point to anyone. 472 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 1: But really, realistically, honestly, the Dolphins are terrible, but the 473 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 1: Redskins are equally terrible, and the Dolphins are at home 474 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: and they're getting more than the key number. That's really 475 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: what it is. This is why I think, like, honestly, 476 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: this was just the bookmaker saying, can we just get 477 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: some action on this game somehow, whatever we need to do, 478 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: throw it out there and see what happens. Because if 479 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: it's two and a half, you're just like, eh, I 480 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: don't want any of this at all. But right now 481 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,360 Speaker 1: with this, it's getting a fair amount of action. From 482 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: what I can see, it's roughly split down the middle, 483 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: exactly what they want. So I am going to really 484 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 1: just feel grotesque all week and long, but I am 485 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: going to hear take the Dolphins getting three and a half. 486 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: So let's recap here before we move on. You've got 487 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 1: the Falcons and Cardinals. I believe it was at fifty one. 488 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: Is that writers fifty one and a half? 489 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 3: Yep, fifty one last. 490 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: But as you said, you would take it over sixty 491 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: right here, all about it, right, there's no number that 492 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: could scare you off that. 493 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, fifty four. I'd still feel good betting 494 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 2: the over. 495 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: My goodness, all right, pour all your money into that 496 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: and blame Jared when you lose Falcons of Cardinals over 497 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: fifty one, the Chiefs who are now laying four to 498 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 1: the Texans, and the Jets plus seven against the Cowboys, 499 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,959 Speaker 1: which I heartily endorse. All right. As for me, I 500 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: am taking the Jaguars and Saints under forty three and 501 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: a half, the Jets and the Cowboys over forty four, 502 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: and the Dolphins getting three and a half from the Redskins. Now, 503 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: before we move on, I want to tell everyone about 504 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Now you know 505 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: about bet mgm already, and in particular the betmgm sports app, 506 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: because it's the easiest and best way to place a 507 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: bet if you're in the state of New Jersey. Just 508 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 1: search for and download the Betmgmsports app on your phone 509 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: or visit betmgm dot com. You sign up for an 510 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: account and you can place a bet right from your home. 511 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: And once you sign up for an account, you'll want 512 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: to pay attention because bet mgm offers boosted bets and 513 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: promotions across all major sports. So you could be looking 514 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 1: at VIGs at like minus three hundred or minus four 515 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,719 Speaker 1: hundred or something, but with a boosted bet you can 516 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: get even money. They also let you track your bet 517 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 1: in real time, and they offer early cashouts where you 518 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: can actually settle a bet before the game ends. That 519 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 1: lets you lock in your winnings or cut your losses early. 520 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: And if you sign up right now, you can get 521 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: a free five hundred dollars bet. Here's the deal. When 522 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: you download the bet mgm Sports app and you sign 523 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 1: up using our promo code Harris. That's my last name, Harris, 524 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: then your first bet of up to five hundred dollars 525 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: is risk free. If you lose, bet mgm is going 526 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 1: to credit you the amount you've lost up to five 527 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: hundred dollars for future waiters. Just download the app and 528 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: use the promo code. Harris to claim the promotion, and 529 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: you can go to betmgm dot com for further details. 530 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: You must be twenty one years or older. And although 531 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: you can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you 532 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 1: must be in the state of New Jersey to place 533 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 1: a sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full 534 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: list of terms and conditions. And if you got a 535 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: gambling problem, gambler, All right, Jared, let's move on here too. 536 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 1: It's a trap where we list the line we are 537 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,159 Speaker 1: avoiding this weekend. Now you already mentioned the Dolphins, but 538 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: you can't choose that one, obviously, go ahead, what else 539 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: you got. 540 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 2: I'm really tempted to take Carolina minus two. You know 541 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 2: they they they lost to Tampa in that Week two game, 542 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 2: but you know they were, you know, a yard away 543 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: from that touchdown that would I think gave them the lead, 544 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: and Cam Newton was playing on you know, one foot 545 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 2: in that game. My concern here is that this game 546 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 2: is in London. I mean, if this game was in 547 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, I take Carolina minus too. But these London games, 548 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 2: I just feel like there's always something funky going on. 549 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 2: We saw last week the Raiders beating the Bears. I 550 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 2: think if that if that game is anywhere in the 551 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 2: in the US, the Bears win that game. But you 552 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 2: know something about London, I think add some volatility to 553 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 2: these games. I'm just gonna avoid Panthers Box, even though 554 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 2: I do think the Panthers come out with a win there. 555 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 1: Oh so that's interesting. So you would feel better about 556 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 1: the Panthers if they were actually in Tampa Bay as 557 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: opposed to playing in London. 558 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 3: I would, yeah. 559 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 2: I mean, come on, the Bucks don't have much of 560 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 2: a home field advantage anyways. 561 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: Boy, my best friend is a Bucks fan. He is 562 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: going to be mad when we listen to this. And 563 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: I will say that again, this is what I like 564 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 1: in tracking these lines. The line has moved. It's now 565 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus two and a half. I assume that 566 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: that doesn't do anything for you, considering you like Carolina. 567 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: But it's interesting when you look at the breakdown on 568 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 1: betting pros dot com. And this is what I love 569 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 1: to do, because I gotta be honest. We've had to 570 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: run a fantastic guess on the show. You included buddy, 571 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,479 Speaker 1: You're You're great. It's fifty one percent Tampa Bay forty 572 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: nine percent. Carolina. So the betting experts are basically split 573 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: right down the middle, which I always think is perfect 574 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: when you're talking about a game to avoid, because nobody 575 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: really knows what's going on. So I'm fine with that. 576 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 1: I agree with that. By the way, London certainly adds 577 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: a variable to it, and you never really know what 578 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: to expect. London's oddly, you know interesting. I've been over 579 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: there when the Jets played the Dolphins, and whoever is 580 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: the home team, they really do come out to support, 581 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: so it's almost quasi like a home game for the 582 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 1: Bucks over there, and as you said, their regular home 583 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: field advantage hasn't been all that great, Lily. But I 584 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: think that's a really good pick for me. I'm gonna 585 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: avoid the Broncos laying two to the Titans now, I 586 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: think probably I can skip this segment altogether at this 587 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: point in any future episode and say that I am 588 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: always avoiding the Titans no matter what, because I don't 589 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: know what I am going to see from the Titans. Ever. 590 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: They have a really strong defense, but they are the 591 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: most frustrating team I've had to watch in a while. Meanwhile, 592 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: the Broncos are much better than their record and they've 593 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: lost several close games. I think Tennessee is probably the 594 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,679 Speaker 1: slightly better team here overall, but I have absolutely no 595 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: confidence and who is going to win this game in Denver. 596 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 1: I'm totally out on it, and I'm sorry sportsbooks, if 597 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: you're listening. I'm advising people probably never to bet on 598 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 1: a Titans game either way, because I feel like you 599 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: just don't know what you're gonna get. 600 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 3: I'm with it there. 601 00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 2: I don't think I've gotten Marcus Mariota right from a 602 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 2: fantasy perspective all year. I agree with you that Tennessee 603 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 2: is a better team. Denver tends to play well at 604 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 2: home that I know. They've lost a couple of heartbreakers 605 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 2: at home so far. I kind of think Denver pulls 606 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 2: out the win there. But I'm with you, I'm staying 607 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:13,640 Speaker 2: away from that game. 608 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if the Broncos were getting a couple 609 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 1: of points, because you can see them right, they're in 610 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 1: the end a team that can like they did with 611 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: the Jaguars right dominating the game and they just find 612 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 1: a way to kind of let it go. They didn't 613 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: against Los Angeles this weekend. But they're just not a 614 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 1: team that you can feel confident and at home. It's 615 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 1: a tough place to play. It always has been. But 616 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: really that's the thing you don't Sometimes Mariota shows up 617 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: and you're like, wow, look at this. This is a 618 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: you know, this offense looks fantastic. But at this point 619 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: I just feel like it's a complete shot in the dark. 620 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: So I'm avoiding them. So I am avoiding the Titans 621 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 1: getting to from the Broncos, and you are avoiding the 622 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: Panthers who are actually laying two and a half to 623 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 1: the Bucks in London. Now, real quick, before we get 624 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 1: to our final segment, I do want to remind everyone 625 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: about our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin 626 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: Kamara Helme and courtesy of our good friends over at 627 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: Pristine Auction. You got a couple more weeks to enter. Actually, 628 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: at this point that's not true. You have a few 629 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: more days to enter, so go ahead and do so. 630 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or 631 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest 632 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: at betting pros dot com. If you entered last month's contest, 633 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: you're already in, so no worries there, all right, Jared, 634 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: it is time for Top prop where we list our 635 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: top player prop of the week. As I said, I 636 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 1: won the DeAndre Hopkins bet last week on a garbage 637 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: time toss, so I am feeling very confident in mine. 638 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 1: You can go first, though. 639 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 2: All right, I'm going back to that Falcons Cardinals game, 640 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 2: which I love. I'm going Matt Ryan over three hundred 641 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 2: and fifty passing yards. I'm getting plus one forty six 642 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 2: on it. Obviously a big number, three hundred and fifty yards. 643 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 2: Ryan's already averaging three hundred and thirty one yards per 644 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 2: game this season. He's tied for the lead league with 645 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty two pass attempts. And I really 646 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 2: don't think that's a fluke. I mean, this Falcons team 647 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,439 Speaker 2: is a pass heavy offense. They're fifth in situation neutral 648 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 2: pass right, So that that's you know, when when the 649 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 2: game is within one score, when the game flow is 650 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 2: in dictating play calling, that the Falcons are throwing it 651 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 2: at the fifth fifth highest rate. I think there should 652 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 2: be another pass heavy game against the Cardinals, who, like 653 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 2: we've said, are still missing Patrick Peterson. They're still missing 654 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 2: Robert all for two, their number two cornerback who's on 655 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 2: IR right now. So lots of plays, lots of passing. 656 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 2: Good matchup for Matt Ryan. I think he goes over 657 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 2: three fifty. 658 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: I mean three plus one forty six. When you're over 659 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 1: three fifty, you know, when you don't think about the situation, 660 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 1: or you don't think about the quarterback, or you don't 661 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: think about all the stats. Sounds crazy, right, You're like 662 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: three fifty. Geez, what are you going to do there? 663 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 3: You know? 664 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: I believe I think last week Greg Smith might have 665 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: taken Kyler Murray over three fifty, which was at like 666 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: plus four hundred or something crazy, right, which he didn't 667 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: win unfortunately. But yeah, that's the thing. I mean, Ryan 668 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 1: basically does that. You know every other game. This game 669 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 1: is going to be high scoring, as you said, So 670 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: I like that one actually a lot. 671 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 2: You know. 672 00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,479 Speaker 1: When you first said it, I thought of the one 673 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: forty six, so I was like, three point fifty that's 674 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: just not enough. But really it, particular with Matt Ryan 675 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: and in this game, I do like it a lot. 676 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 1: So that's a good one for me. I'm going to 677 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: go a little more conservative and I'm going to take 678 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards at 679 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 1: minus one fourteen. Now, Diggs did not have a great 680 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: game last week, and he has topped this total just 681 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 1: one time this season. But the bottom line is that 682 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 1: the Eagle strength is really their run defense. So I 683 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: expect the Vikings to need to go to the air 684 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 1: a little bit more on Sunday. So why Digs over Thilan? Well, first, 685 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 1: Thelan's number is higher, It's somewhere in the seventies. But basically, 686 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: Diggs has seen seven targets in two games this year. 687 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 1: Every other game he's maxed out at four. He's seen 688 00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 1: the seven targets in games against the Packers and against 689 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 1: the Bears, and in both games, Cousins was pressured and 690 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: needed to get rid of the ball really quickly. And 691 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,760 Speaker 1: that is what I see happening here. I see Diggs 692 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: getting a lot of targets, most of them quick as 693 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: the Eagles pass, russ is going to be able to 694 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: get to Cousins. With Minnesota's weak offensive line, neither Russell 695 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: Douglas nor Craig James can really hang with Diggs at 696 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: this point. I don't think we're gonna see one hundred 697 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: yard game necessarily or anything like that, but something in 698 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,120 Speaker 1: the seventy to eighty range, especially given that Feelan got 699 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 1: the squeaky wheel treatment last week. I think the squeaky 700 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: wheel treatment is probably coming digs way anyway this week, 701 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: but especially I think this game, in particular because of 702 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: the pass rush, sets up well for him, because I 703 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 1: think he excels when Cousins needs to get the ball 704 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: out quick. So I will buy something in the seventy 705 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: to eighty range, which means I'm taking Stefan Diggs over 706 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half yards M minus one fourteen. 707 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 2: The fact that Diggs over under is fifty nine and 708 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 2: a half yards against the Eagles is just very sad. 709 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 2: I mean, he's just getting wasted in that offense. He 710 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 2: is such a good player. I mean, I if I'm 711 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 2: the Vikings, and I know they want to be a 712 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 2: run first offense, but in this matchup, the Eagles are 713 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 2: so good against the run and so bad against the pass, 714 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 2: the Vikings really should throw up more than we've seen 715 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 2: over the past, you know, the first five weeks of 716 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 2: this season. 717 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 3: So I like that bat with Diggs over fifty nine 718 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 3: and a half. 719 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, in the end, I think they're gonna be a 720 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: little more of a balanced team. I get that they 721 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: want to run. I get that that's what they want 722 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 1: to do and lean on their defense, and I don't 723 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 1: really have a ton of faith in the Philadelphia offense. 724 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I think if people are taking a ton 725 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: of positives from last week's game against the Jets, I 726 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: think that's crazy because I did not think they look 727 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,719 Speaker 1: good whatsoever. Again, you know, anybody could go out there 728 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: and beat the Jets with Luke Falk starting. I think 729 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 1: a lot of it was on their defense. I don't 730 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 1: really love their you know, offense really at all, especially 731 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,239 Speaker 1: against a tough defense like the Vikings. So I'm a 732 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 1: little worried about the game flow in this game being 733 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: something where well, it could just be sort of a close, 734 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: low scoring game and they still will rely on the 735 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: run the Vikings because that's kind of what they like 736 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 1: to do. But in the end, I think last week 737 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: what we saw and look, I get that it was 738 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: a super soft matchup against the Giants, But I think 739 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 1: they look better when they're a little more balanced and 740 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 1: they throw a little bit more. And I think they 741 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,479 Speaker 1: know that. And I think Diggs is not getting traded 742 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 1: this year. He's just not not with that contract. They 743 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 1: need him. He's a great player, as you said, and 744 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 1: I think in the end, not only are they going 745 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 1: to make a little bit more of an effort to 746 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 1: get him the ball, but I think in particular this 747 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: game sets up really well for him, so hopefully the 748 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: fact I agree the number is preposterously low, but again, 749 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: he's topped it once once this entire season, so it 750 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 1: isn't something that's a short thing by any means. But 751 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: I definitely feel that given the game flow, it's going 752 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 1: to be a winner. So you are taking Matt Ryan 753 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 1: over three hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one 754 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 1: forty six, which I also really like, and I'll take 755 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs over fifty nine and a half yards at 756 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: minus one fourteen. Well, that is going to do it 757 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: for today's show. Thanks for joining me, Jared. Can you 758 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: remind everyone where they can find more of you and 759 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 1: your work. 760 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can check out my fantasy football stuff over 761 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 2: at draft Sharks dot com and then you can follow 762 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 2: me on Twitter at smola DS. It's smola DS. 763 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on. I hope we 764 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: can talk again soon later in the season. 765 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 3: It'd be great. Thanks for having me, all. 766 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: Right, I want to remind everyone about bet MGM, where 767 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 1: you can place your first wager of up to five 768 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: hundred dollars risk free. And don't forget to leave a 769 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 1: sort review on iTunes or Stitcher and send it screenshot 770 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: of that review to be entered into our Alvin Kamara 771 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: signed helmet giveaway. It ends in just a few days. 772 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends, 773 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 1: we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.