WEBVTT - US Labor Market Defies Slowdown Forecasts 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.440 gloom oall business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:19.000 Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:25.479 Strong payrolls report relatively so seems to reinforce the soft 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:30.240 landing case. Let's discuss with our next guest, Mike Becky 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:35.560 Frankowitz a manpower group. She joins us from Chicago right now. Hey, Becky, 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.640 thanks for being with us. Your takeaway from today's report. 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:43.680 Yeah, So, today's report shows a definite moderation happening in 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:47.880 the US labor market. It is a cooling, I would say, 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:51.520 it's not a collapse. We are seeing some month over 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:54.480 months softness, but some of that is welcome because now 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.120 employers are actually able to fill jobs at a faster 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.279 rate than they've been able to all year long. Ration 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.680 is the headline A slight glide, slow glide into a 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.679 more stable labor market, I would say, is what we 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:08.200 can look forward to for new years. 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.240 Yeah, Becky, I wanted to talk about that time it 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:13.440 takes to fill a job these days. I was reading 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.040 a note you sent to us before the show, the 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.119 time to fill roles has dropped to forty nine days 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.720 in November from an average of one hundred and twenty 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:25.120 two days in twenty and twenty three year to date, 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.160 one hundred and twenty two days seems to me like 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.840 a tremendous amount of time to fill a job. I mean, 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.800 is that just off the charts Historically what would sort 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.280 of be like a healthy normal number of days for 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:38.919 that metric. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.960 Yeah, so it fluctuates, as you might imagine, but four 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:46.240 months to fill a job is unprecedented. So we're sitting 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.000 on about a month and a half, as you said, 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.720 forty nine days today. We like to see that at 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.320 about forty to forty five, So you know, it takes 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.320 a month a week or so to actually fill a 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:00.480 job in a normalized labor market, but a significant month 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.720 over month or for the year today average to the month, 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:08.480 and that's really the hallmark of this cooling reduction in demand. Again, 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:13.480 but for November, we saw double digit demand declines from 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:17.600 October to November across all sectors in the economy, and 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:21.040 the jobs report, while it looks quite robust, the underlying 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.360 thing we should be asking about, is hey, what's happening 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:27.200 with holiday hiring, what's happening with retail logistics slowed down? 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:29.680 What impact were the strikes on the numbers we saw 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:30.240 in government? 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:30.880 So when you. 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:34.200 Disaggregate the report, while it looks very quite positive, I 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.640 would say at face value, it's actually quite moderate and 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:39.600 gives us some signals of what to expect as we 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:40.399 close December. 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.880 Is there any evidence that what we call labor hoarding 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.079 has evaporated or is that still there? 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.919 Yeah, so we're not seeing the pandemic paranoia that I 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:54.840 would call the labor hoarding output of back after the crisis, 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.839 But we are seeing employers still hold on to their employees. 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:02.520 We're not seeing we're seeing some increases. You heard Spotify 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:06.079 Panera was in the news, but we're not seeing recession 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:10.200 type increases in layoffs. They're quite stable. And so what's 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.639 happening is employers are holding onto their talent. And there's 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:16.359 a new term in the marketplace. It's called talent mobility. 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:20.040 And what that means is within a company, employers don't 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:21.679 want to let go of their talent, and so they're 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.919 trying to move people around based on their capabilities versus 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:27.680 letting people go and rehiring for new skills, and I 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.680 think that's great news for the American employee, as we 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:32.720 all need to upskill and rescille for the future. 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.160 You know, Becky, one of the other labor reports we 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:38.680 got this month that's sort of hinted at that slowdown 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.560 you're talking about was that Jolts survey. That's the government's 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:46.120 survey of job openings in the US, and it really 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.440 has softened quite a bit. I mean, it was again 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:50.800 one of those numbers that was just off the charts 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:54.840 last year, over twelve million job openings. This past month 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:58.400 that came down by about six hundred thousand to about 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:02.280 eight point seven million. How does that number job with 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.720 the data you see at Manpower, I mean, are the 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:09.720 number of available jobs really shrinking at a pretty rapid rate. 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:11.160 Yeah. 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:14.720 We saw about a twenty percent reduction from October Snovember 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.080 on available jobs in the countries. That's a pretty significant reduction. 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.600 I'll counter that though, by saying there are still one 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:25.200 point three jobs for every unemployed American that's looking for 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.680 work today. And you might say one point three, how 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.080 does that compare pre crisis? We were running about one 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:33.800 point two and So when I say we're getting back 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.400 into a more moderate labor market, today's labor market is 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.360 starting to look like twenty nineteen, not twenty twenty, which 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:41.040 is a positive. 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:45.359 When Mike leaves Bloomberg the say afternoon, he's going to 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:49.640 go to his other job, kidding, what else could he do? 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.360 How many people out there actually have more than one 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.560 job at this point and has that changed dramatically? 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:00.680 Yeah, so, great question. We're seeing about five percent Americans 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.760 hold more than one job. Some of those are multiple 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.080 part time jobs. Some of those are full time plus 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.240 part time, not super unusual as we go into the 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:13.880 holiday season. That's getting us back to pre pandormic, pre 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.919 pandemic averages. But you know, the holiday season has been surprising, 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.000 and so people are trying to earn money. So we 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.279 don't see this continued expansion in credit or you know, 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:26.040 pay as you go by now pay later that we're 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:28.880 starting to see really take off with the millennials. People 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:31.200 are needing to take on more jobs to get more 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:32.719 money to pay for their holiday season. 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:37.600 Well, Bucky, where are the jobs shrinking the most? Are 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:41.120 there any certain sectors that are cooling down faster than others? 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:42.440 Yeah? 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:46.080 So quite sobering. We saw double digit declines across all 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:50.280 sectors in the economy, whether that's the fiery hot medical 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:53.240 space or whether that's in it. What I will say 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:55.760 are the top three jobs still in demand in the 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.119 country are medical about two point three million open jobs 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:02.640 in the country, followed by sales about nine hundred thousand 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:05.800 open jobs, and it another nine hundred thousand. And so 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:09.240 when we say it's cooling, not collapsing, that's because there's 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.960 still amazing jobs available for Americans in the economy, just 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:14.320 not as many as we're available. 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:18.680 In October, he give us some advice for job seekers 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.280 or even job holders, how to hold on to their 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.760 jobs or what they should be looking for. I mean, 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.520 like I was mentioning, Mike pretty much does it all. 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.400 He's like the utility infielders, so he's never going to 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:31.839 get fucked. 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:33.200 I'm mopping the floors later. 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.880 They have me, So Mike, call me when you're ready 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:39.359 for something new. No, I would say for skills in 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.359 demand again, if you want to make yourself in demand, 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:44.760 medical is a hot space. If you didn't grow up 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.000 in that, it's a hot space not just for nurses, 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.520 the hot space for you CNA or nurse assistants. When 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:54.359 you get into software, almost anyone can get certification online 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:58.279 today to learn new skills like salesforce or SAP and 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:01.440 so make yourself position yoursell for in demand jobs. And 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:03.479 you can do a lot of this online. It doesn't 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:05.680 require you going to get a new degree. So that 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.520 would be for people seeking for people holding their job. 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:10.960 Now is a time to tuck in. You know, we're 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:14.160 seeing stabilization and the quick rate that had been increasing, 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.080 you know, hovering very high in terms of an average. 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:19.160 Now's a good time to kind of tuck in and 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.360 make sure you're developing yourself in your role versus looking 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:25.120 to change jobs extensively. It's probably best to wait and 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.720 not make that your new year's resolution, wait until Q 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.120 two when we anticipate some recovery in the marketplace. 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.000 And I guess, I guess that would also mean if 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.760 like your employer wants you back in the office five 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:37.720 days a week, you better get back right. 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:42.520 Yeah, that's a hot topic, John, that's a hot topic. 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.840 We're still seeing and if you scope out, it's still 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.960 a very tight labor market, still more jobs than people, 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:52.440 and so this negotiation, this tug of war happening between 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:54.800 in the officer out of the office. We're seeing that 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.600 settle about three days a week with a lot of flexibility. 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.520 You know, Becky, the other big question that always comes 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:03.720 up as well, these are the hot jobs now, but 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.320 what about the future. And I kind of have a 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.760 selfish reason to ask for this. I have a daughter 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:12.240 who's a college student and heard all our friends that 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:16.520 is the hot topic is when I graduate in two years. 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:20.000 You know, where are the hot jobs? Is it still 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:22.640 in that medical and tech field? Do you think are 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:24.120 there other places to consider? 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:26.240 What you're really asking is when is she going to 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:26.600 move out of it? 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:27.080 Wait? 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:28.320 Talk my kid? 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:29.480 A job is the question? 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:31.160 And we only have about thirty seconds. 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.080 Yes, I have three in college, so I understand. 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:36.199 Go for STEM. 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:38.920 STEM jobs are still going to be the future. AI, 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.680 anything with data that's going to be a hot field 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.240 and fairly future proof for both of our of our kids. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:48.800 Good advice, AI, John, It's all about AI. 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:52.040 Okay, Becky, thanks a lot. It looks like Becky's working 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:55.800 from home. I'm just saying, Becky Frankowitz, Manpower Group joining 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.719 us from Chicago. Let me to call you out on that. 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:02.719 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:06.120 live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:10.199 Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:12.160 or want us live on YouTube. 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:16.240 All right, John, I have a pop quiz for you already, 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:19.480 no pressure lay it on me if I give you 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.440 the initials cb DC. 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.120 Do you know what I'm talking about b DC. I'm 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.360 gonna imagine it has something to do with something I 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:31.920 don't understand, which is the world of crypto. You're absolutely right, Michael. 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:35.400 I'll just tell you well, as a thing that really 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:38.240 scares me about crypto is the fact that it's the 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.920 number one topic of the barbershop. And when that happens, 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:45.400 that's like a contrarian indicator to me run and hide. 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:50.360 That's like the shoeshine Boy with JP Morgan. Well, we've 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.640 got a great guest here today to explain it all 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:57.200 to us. His name is Chris John Carlow. He is 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:00.320 the former chairman of the Commodity Futures Training Commission and 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.520 it's now a senior counsel at the law firm of Wilkie, 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:07.400 far and Gallagher, and he is co founder of Something 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:11.920 called the Digital Dollar Project, which is a non profit 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:17.160 group focused on exploring digital innovation in money and future 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:20.080 proofing the US dollar. Chris, thanks so much for joining 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:20.520 us today. 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:22.199 Mike, it's great to be with you. Thank you for 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:22.800 the introduction. 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:26.280 And Chris, I try, I've tried several times to explain 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:30.000 what a CBDC is. You know, I think most people 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.680 when they think of their money, they view it on 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.520 their phone or on a computer screen. They think it's 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:39.120 digital already. But could you just sort of explain to us, 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:43.360 in Layman's term, what the difference is between a CBDC, 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.240 a central bank digital currency, and what we think of 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:47.120 money today. 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:52.120 Sure, CBDC stands for central bank digital currency, and the 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:56.840 concept is it's digital money, digital currency. That means it's 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.000 on somewhere on a digital network, as opposed to Sydney 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.720 simply on a bank balance sheet. But it enjoys the 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.720 full faith and credit of the US government, unlike a 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:11.320 stable coin, which may have stores of reserves of currency 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.200 or treasury securities, but is based upon the credit of 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:16.560 a corporate institution, of a private sect director. 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:21.560 And so what is the future of the CBDC, I mean, 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:25.640 are we definitely in the US going to see one soon. 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:29.960 No, but we will be seeing cbdc's of all kinds 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:32.480 here in the United States, whether the United States deploys 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:35.560 a digital dollar or not, because one hundred and thirty 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.199 countries around the world are currently exploring central bank digital 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:40.240 currency or CBDCs. 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.440 We have like Nicaragua has already done it, has has 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:43.720 it not? 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:47.600 Well, let's put outside small economies. China has already done it, 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.600 and they already have it in two hundred and sixty 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.360 million Chinese citizens' wallets. 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:54.400 The European Union. 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.320 Has moved from exploration to now development of a digital 0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.520 euro and they expect to have it in place in 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:00.800 the next two or three years. 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.400 So see we're seeing deployed. Does it work? 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:05.839 China works. 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:09.320 It's actually quite sophisticated, it's quite powerful, and in a 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.080 matter of time, China will not only use it for 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:15.000 domestic use, but will export it around the world as 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.360 an export product. You can imagine in say ten years, 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:22.080 a digital boulevard, which is basically a white label version 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.640 of China's digital yu Won. It'll have interoperability with China's 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.680 digital yu Wan for payments for say building up port 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:32.200 facilities or water treatment facilities, but it will be white 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.320 labeled as a digital boulevard, you. 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.199 Know, Chris, I think one of the sort of backlashes 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.080 that comes up when this topic comes up is that 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:42.680 the government will be able to sort of track exactly 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.000 what you do with your money. And I feel like, 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:49.800 especially in the US, you know, people love their privacy. Politics. 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.520 Privacy is a big issue. How big of a stumbling block. 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:54.200 Is that issue? 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:55.559 Do you think so, Mike. 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:58.280 First of all, it's a very legitimate concern. It's it's 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:01.920 you know, those those reports, sentatives like Tom Emmer and 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:03.920 Congress and dissentists that have talked about this. 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:05.679 They're not wrong to be concerned. 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:09.920 About this because the benchmark thus far is China's digital Yuan, 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.640 which is designed for full surveillance of the population. 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:15.480 And if that model. 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.560 Were to be the basis for a digital currency here 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:19.320 in the United States, it would be a disaster. 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:20.320 It would violate the. 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.600 Fourth Amend of the Constitution, amongst other things, but it 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.040 would be a disaster. But let's put that in context 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.920 for a second. So can a stable coin, Okay, so 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.640 can any type of centralized system of value is going 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.880 to be a honeypot for massive amount of data, So 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:38.920 whether the government does it directly with a digital currency 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.920 or does it indirectly by pressuring stable coin operators to 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.640 suck out all the data and hand it over to 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.359 the government, as as they've done with social media platforms. 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.280 The concern about privacy is the key concern. That's why 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.280 we form the Digital Dollar Project to really encourage the 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.560 United States to lead with its values. The United States 0:13:57.640 --> 0:13:59.880 doesn't need to focus on whether or not to deploy 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.840 digital dollar right now, but it must take a leadership 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.720 seat at the table that is today deciding what these 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.520 digital networks are valuaboth sovereign and non sovereign are going 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.000 to look like. Because our economic competitors like Europe and 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.559 our economic adversaries like China are at the table right now, 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.800 and in China's case, they want to ensure a digital 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.640 future of money that is safe for surveillance and save 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.560 for censorship. We need to assure a digital future that's 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:28.400 safe for democracy. 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.800 Does a central banks surrender anything in terms of monetary policy? 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:34.080 By going down this path. 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:40.080 Designed right, they could actually obtain much more efficient tools 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:44.320 of monetory policy. So take the COVID disaster, for example, 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.160 what did our government do. It tried to issue paper 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.960 checks to people because it had no digital means of distributing. 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.320 Many people who were locked up at home, couldn't get 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.640 to a bank or didn't have bank accounts. But with 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.320 digital money, you could load it right onto their mobile 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.520 device and do something that you can't do with cash, 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:02.080 engage in online commerce. 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:04.080 So a digital currency. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.760 Could actually be a great tool if we can get 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:11.280 the other issues like privacy, like financial inclusion, like interoperability, 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.040 and like resilience to penetration. 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:14.920 If we can get those issues. 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:17.080 Right, I can feel people out there saying, John and 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:22.640 Mike ask them about ETFs. What's happening? Can you like 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.440 jump into that? Where are we with a bitcoin ETF 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:26.920 or whatever? 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.360 So you know, when I was at the CFTC, we 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.120 green lighted the first regulated market for any type of crypto, 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.480 and that was bitcoin futures in the US. 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:35.400 And that was five years ago. 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.240 And that market today is liquid, it's transparent, it's operating 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:42.280 very very well, and it's fully regulated. It was on 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:47.680 that bitcoin futures market that the SEC green lighted and ETF. 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.360 Today we do have an ETF, but it's based upon 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:54.680 the bitcoin future, not based upon the spot market. What 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.520 we're talking about here is green lighting and ETF on 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:01.080 the spot market. Thus far, the SEC has been unwilling 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.880 to do it because the spot market is actually outside 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:08.040 the CFTC's jurisdiction. Long story which I won't go into now, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.240 but it's outside. Congress is toying, and there's some bills 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:13.760 that would give the CFTC oversight of that, which would 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:14.960 make the SEC's. 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.080 Job much easier. Now. 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.600 Having said that, there's a lot of reason to believe 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:19.680 that the SEC. 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.440 May be getting ready for an ETF. 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:25.160 On the spot bitcoin and ethery of markets right now. 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.440 And if we look around the globe, Canada's already done it, 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.000 Germany's done it. There are other functioning markets that are healthy, 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.160 that are well regulated, and so I think there's very 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.840 good arguments that the SEC should and I think there's 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:43.480 anecdotal evidence that they will green light that product sometime 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:44.400 in the beginning. 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:44.480 Of the year. 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:46.320 Yeah, Chris, I'd love it if you could put your 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.720 old regulator's hat back on from your days at the CFTC, 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.600 because we've had such an aggressive crackdown in the last 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.200 year or two. You know, we've all seen Sam bankman 0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:00.480 Fried go to jail Cz, the co founder of Bui Dance, 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:02.760 just pled guilty. On and on and on the list 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:07.200 goes on. Have we seen all the regulatory actions, all 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.480 the enforcement actions, all the criminal actions that need to 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:12.280 be done to clean up the space, or do you 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:13.280 think there's more work to do? 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:14.840 Well, certainly we've seen the big ones. 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:19.000 I think FTX and Finance long rumored are the big 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:21.400 ones in that category. I'm not aware of any other 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.119 big ones. But let me put in context if I 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:28.240 could both the regulatory actions and the criminality, and I 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:30.000 want to if I could just go back one hundred 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:32.199 and fifty years of another period of American history when a 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:36.040 major new technology came along that transformed the United States, 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:38.840 and that was the railroad. The railroad allowed us to 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:42.040 tie together a series of regional economies in one national economy, 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.560 and so it was fundamental to our nation's progress for 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:49.440 the next hundred and fifty years. But remember it was 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:53.800 accompanied by a myriad of scandals and frauds in. 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:55.240 The sale of railroad stocks. 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:59.920 You know, famous names like the Trasks and others were 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.520 involved in all kinds of fraudile behavior selling stocks and 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.439 roads that didn't exist. We're now facing another new technology that, 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.679 in a similar way, has the ability to tie together 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:12.760 a whole disparate set of economic activity, and I believe 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.800 will in the twenty first century transform finance and banking 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.280 and money itself. But it's not that surprising that it's 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:23.320 accompanied by a series of high flying scandals which will 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.439 look back to someday the way we look back to 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.160 the Vanderbilts and the Trasks and others as being speculators 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:31.879 in a new technology. But the technology itself has a 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:33.040 tremendous amount of value. 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.399 Chris, thanks for stopping by the students today. We appreciate it. Chris. 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.720 John Carlos in your counsel at Wilkie foreign Gallagher with 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:43.840 the Digital Dollar Project. And let me give you a 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:46.960 bitcoin quote. How about that up three percent today forty 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:50.639 four thousand, six hundred and sixty six dollars per token. 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:57.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:01.680 live weekday afternoons from three to six on Bloomberg Radio, 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:05.160 the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.359 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:13.119 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:14.840 What are you suppose you're gonna get me. 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:19.960 For Christmas for you, John, I was thinking, Uh, no. 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:21.000 A scented candle. 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.119 Sense it candle, no offense, But I feel like I 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:26.080 feel like your fragrance could use an upgrade. 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.240 Oh, why would I be offended by that? Michael? Anyway, 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:33.960 this is a scented candle that we have in studio. 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:35.280 And you know what, I take a whiff of it. 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:37.159 You know what it smells like to me? 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:38.560 I got a hint of cinnamon. 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:42.480 I got a hint of fifth Avenue. There you go, 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:46.399 the Fragrance Queen. It's smells. Prince Queen is with this. 0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:52.159 Linda Levy is president of the Fragrance Foundation. What's the 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:53.240 Fragrance Foundation? 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:58.440 The Fragrance Foundation is a not for profit organization whose 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:04.639 members unite and gather about the passion and artistry of fragrance. 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:08.200 Wow, what's this fragrance that you brought in in the 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:08.800 so in. 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:13.320 Studio today, I've brought you nest candle which is called 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:17.320 Holiday And for the first time ever in New York City, 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.119 from about sixty second Street to forty seventh Street, the 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:24.080