Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
Speaker 1: along with Bau mcbrair. We've got a betting preview of
Speaker 1: the three m Open on tap for today. It's the
Speaker 1: second last event on the PGA Tour calendar before the
Speaker 1: FedEx Cup playoffs. But first let's quickly touch on the
Speaker 1: final major of the year, the Open Championship. Scotti Scheffler
Speaker 1: is your champion Golfer of the year. He wins the
Speaker 1: opening a runaway at royal Port Rush. Scotty opened with
Speaker 1: a sixty eight on Thursday and was one shot behind
Speaker 1: the pack. He grabbed the thirty six hole lead with
Speaker 1: a sterling round of sixty four on Friday. He stretched
Speaker 1: that lead to four with the sixty seven on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Then he birdied three of his first five holes on
Speaker 1: Sunday to effectively grab the claret jug with both hands.
Speaker 1: Scotty's only hiccup on Sunday was a double bogie in
Speaker 1: the eighth hole when he had some trouble with a
Speaker 1: fairway bunker, but by then his cushion was so big
Speaker 1: that not even a crooked number could introduce some drama
Speaker 1: to the proceedings. Harris English finishes second, four shots back
Speaker 1: Chris Goderup, who had won the Scottish Open a week earlier.
Speaker 1: He finished solo third at royal Port Rush, Hot tong Lee,
Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark tie for fourth, and twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four Open champion Xander Schoffley and favorite son of
Speaker 1: Northern Ireland Rory McElroy finishing a tie for seventh after
Speaker 1: acquitting themselvesselves pretty well all week. Bow Your takeaways from
Speaker 1: Scotti Scheffler's first Open championship victory, Well.
Speaker 2: We can't call it flawless, but it was as close
Speaker 2: to flawless as you're going to get for an Open championship.
Speaker 2: The scoring was pretty favorable. That Royal Port Rush is
Speaker 2: just a really tough golf course, so even with premium
Speaker 2: scoring conditions, it wasn't that easy unless your name was
Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler. Uh, he's just so good. He's he's a machine,
Speaker 2: and that's from tee to green. You expect him to
Speaker 2: be the best in the field. But last the week
Speaker 2: before last at Scottish he was one hundred and eighteenth
Speaker 2: in strokes gain putting. He finished number one in total
Speaker 2: putts and number two in strokes game put in the
Speaker 2: whole field at the at the Open Championship, if Scotty's
Speaker 2: in the top five of putting, nobody has any chance.
Speaker 1: Period.
Speaker 2: That's just it. Like, even if Scotty's in the top forty,
Speaker 2: he's probably gonna win if he's putting well enough to
Speaker 2: be in the top forty, if he's putting number one
Speaker 2: or number two in the field, it's a it's a
Speaker 2: shock that he only won by four. Honestly, that's that's
Speaker 2: how good he is. From Teita Green and we thought
Speaker 2: for sure that he couldn't read the greens as well
Speaker 2: as other stateside greens. But he figured something out. And
Speaker 2: if if happy he learned how to putt, it's no
Speaker 2: stopping him. Scotty Scheffler might not celebrate his win too long,
Speaker 2: but he's he's gonna celebrate, And I mean, it's just
Speaker 2: it was fun to watch. He's a lot of people
Speaker 2: call him boring. I think it's the opposite. We're watching greatness,
Speaker 2: and anytime we're witnessing greatness, I have to pinch myself
Speaker 2: because I get so excited to watch just how pristy
Speaker 2: his game is. From every club in the bag, his
Speaker 2: mental game is insanely strong. This guy is just he's
Speaker 2: an all time great already and it's a privilege to
Speaker 2: watch that unfold at the Open Championship.
Speaker 1: Yes, Scotty, he wasn't great on the tee all week.
Speaker 1: He caught some good breaks. There were a couple of
Speaker 1: times where balls could have gone into the thick stuff
Speaker 1: and bounced and stayed up in the light stuff. But man,
Speaker 1: the distance control on his irons and wedges, the scrambling,
Speaker 1: I mean, the gamer on the green and like you said, bo,
Speaker 1: I mean he I know he was vexed by the
Speaker 1: faescue greens at the Scottish Open. Not so much a
Speaker 1: royal port rush. He was dialed in. It was a
Speaker 1: sight to behold. Do we think it might have been
Speaker 1: closer if we had gotten some more Scottish weather because
Speaker 1: it looked like San Diego out there on the weekend.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's kind of what surprised me is that
Speaker 2: Scotty Scheffler dominates when the weather is good, and I
Speaker 2: think is his game strategy hasn't really played out for
Speaker 2: Scottish weather or Northern Irish weather. The Open Championship is
Speaker 2: usually marked by great scoring conditions when the weather's perfect
Speaker 2: and then unplayable conditions darn near when the weather's it's
Speaker 2: just when the wind is up. And Royal Port Rush
Speaker 2: is a brutally difficult golf course when the wind is up.
Speaker 2: We just didn't get any wind, and so Scotti Scheffler's
Speaker 2: high ball flight. He's good at flighting it down, but
Speaker 2: his real strength is when he's just better than everybody
Speaker 2: else at gauging distance and hitting the center of the
Speaker 2: club face with his irons, and there's really no extra
Speaker 2: calculus to it when there's no wind to factor in.
Speaker 2: Where you might see a Tommy Fleetwood or Rory McIlroy
Speaker 2: or Harry Hall kind of kick it into gear. Those
Speaker 2: are the Shane Lowry's of the world. Those guys need
Speaker 2: inclement weather to kind of equalize the field. Against Scotti Scheffler,
Speaker 2: we didn't get that, and honestly, it was his off
Speaker 2: the tea game that made it a mercy kept it
Speaker 2: from being a mercy. Rule Like the two thousand Open
Speaker 2: Championship when Tiger blitz the field with nineteen under, it
Speaker 2: reminded me of that. It was not quite as dominant,
Speaker 2: but it was more of like, okay, if the wind
Speaker 2: doesn't pick up. Nobody's got a chance to even catch him.
Speaker 2: And even how tong Lee was just like, I'm playing
Speaker 2: for second place here, I'm being realistic and that's refreshing
Speaker 2: to hear that you really did. He didn't know that
Speaker 2: he wasn't going to have a chance, but he also
Speaker 2: figured chances are Scotty's not going to beat himself.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely not. And what a change in weather at
Speaker 1: Royal Port Rush from twenty nineteen one of the saggiest
Speaker 1: Open championships in history probably to you know, sun and
Speaker 1: looked like they were in Fiji or something for much
Speaker 1: of that tournament. But before we move on, Scotty's performance
Speaker 1: sort of rekindled the Scotty versus Tiger debate. We touched
Speaker 1: on that earlier this year. Briefly, where do you think
Speaker 1: Scotty stands visa v. Tiger in terms of all time
Speaker 1: golf greatness?
Speaker 2: I don't think he could attain what Tiger attained. Tiger
Speaker 2: completely reinvented the game of golf. Tiger saved the game
Speaker 2: of golf in the mid nineties. It went from a
Speaker 2: very much a fourth or fifth level sport on TV
Speaker 2: to must see TV in the majors and anytime he
Speaker 2: teed it up. So the level of greatness is probably comparable,
Speaker 2: especially since Scotty's doing this against stronger competition on tougher
Speaker 2: golf courses than Tiger did. At the same time, what
Speaker 2: Tiger did for the sport as greatness, I count that in.
Speaker 2: And I don't think Scotty has the personality or the
Speaker 2: want to to be a Tiger Woods, and that's fine.
Speaker 2: I just I want to say the game is on
Speaker 2: par with Tiger, but what he's doing to invigorate the
Speaker 2: entire sport, it's just not there because it's it's not
Speaker 2: that he wants to be there, and there's so many
Speaker 2: other talented players that can carry that torch for Scotty,
Speaker 2: and Scotty can just go out and keep winning tournaments
Speaker 2: and be ho hum family guy. That's his place in
Speaker 2: the sport. And I don't fault him for it. I
Speaker 2: just don't think that we need to be putting those
Speaker 2: two side by side, because if you're saying vis a
Speaker 2: vis Tiger is not reachable, He's He's a seven hundred
Speaker 2: yard par five into the wind. He's not reachable for anybody,
Speaker 2: that's just not going to happen. And I don't think
Speaker 2: Scotty is interested in reaching Tiger status, and Tiger's still Tiger. Like,
Speaker 2: if Tiger showed up to a healthy to a tournament tomorrow,
Speaker 2: we'd be talking all about him and not about Scotty.
Speaker 2: What does that tell you at fifteen?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does remind me sort of the Jordan Lebron debates.
Speaker 1: And you know, a lot of the people who bring
Speaker 1: it up and people who sort of think that Scotty
Speaker 1: is on par with Tiger were maybe, yeah, people from
Speaker 1: the younger generation who weren't around for the best of Tiger.
Speaker 1: And yeah, like to me, Jordan was the competitive fires
Speaker 1: burn brighter in him than an any other NBA player ever.
Speaker 1: And I think he could say the same of Tiger Woods.
Speaker 1: And there were times when we saw it wasn't necessarily
Speaker 1: the best players of Tiger's arab besides Tiger who gave
Speaker 1: him the best battles. I mean, he got his best
Speaker 1: fights from some unexpected people Rock Omediate, Bob May, Chris DeMarco.
Speaker 1: But like, those guys were playing the best they had
Speaker 1: ever played in their lives, and like it took a
Speaker 1: heroic effort from Tiger to beat those guys, and he
Speaker 1: still managed to beat all those guys when they brought
Speaker 1: their finest.
Speaker 2: I don't think this is quite the lightning rod of
Speaker 2: topic like Lebron and MJ. Because where I see Lebron
Speaker 2: is certainly an all time great. I see him as
Speaker 2: the catalyst for that debate because he came into the
Speaker 2: league as a high school graduate straight in wearing number
Speaker 2: twenty three. Wanted to be like MJ. He wanted to
Speaker 2: be Air Jordan. He wanted to be the next Air Jordan,
Speaker 2: and he shot for the moon and for a lot
Speaker 2: of people he reached that status. He read he reinvented
Speaker 2: the game of basketball like MJ did in his era.
Speaker 2: So I think that those two are a lot closer
Speaker 2: than Scotty trying to reach a level of notoriety and
Speaker 2: all that that Tiger reached through complete dominance. Like Scotty's
Speaker 2: winning tournaments and he's winning majors. But it's only been
Speaker 2: three four years and Tiger did this for a decade
Speaker 2: and a half straight. Yeah, So yeah, if Scotty wants
Speaker 2: to be the legend of Tiger, he's going to keep
Speaker 2: up this pace for another decade straight. Good luck. I
Speaker 2: hope you do it. I don't know if he actually
Speaker 2: wants to, though, you might be riding off into the
Speaker 2: sunset long before that.
Speaker 1: Great point, all right, closing the book on the Open Championship.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Ryan Girard won last week's Barracuda
Speaker 1: Championship here in the state. It's a nice win for
Speaker 1: the twenty five year old Girard. Now we're on to
Speaker 1: the three M Open. We'll get to it and the
Speaker 1: betting preview in just a moment, but first.
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Speaker 1: So after two weeks of links golf in Northern Europe,
Speaker 1: we are back in the US for more familiar Parkland golf.
Speaker 1: The top players are sitting this one out in Minnesota,
Speaker 1: but it's a reasonably deep field for the threem Open,
Speaker 1: and we're going to see a lot of the mid
Speaker 1: level PGA tour pros teeing it up this week to
Speaker 1: better position themselves for the FedEx Cup playoffs. The three
Speaker 1: im Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
Speaker 1: It's a par seventy one that will play at seven
Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty one yards. The course was designed
Speaker 1: by Arnold Palmer with input from Native Minnesota Tom Layman.
Speaker 1: TPC Twin Cities certainly isn't a difficult course by tour standards,
Speaker 1: but it's not without danger. There's water water everywhere, not
Speaker 1: a drop to drink. Water comes into play on fifteen
Speaker 1: holes at TPC Twin Cities. A lot of those water
Speaker 1: hazards will threaten players t shots and a lot of
Speaker 1: those water hazards run down the right side of holes.
Speaker 1: Slicers beware lefty hook or lefty hookers. That's right, don't
Speaker 1: want to leave out my left time.
Speaker 2: I'm not a hooker, pat Okay.
Speaker 1: The fairways are pretty generous at TPC Twin Cities and
Speaker 1: it has some big greens. We're going to see a
Speaker 1: higher than usual percentage of greens and regulations, so chipping
Speaker 1: in bunker play scrambling won't be as important this week.
Speaker 1: The greens are bent grass. It's fairly long course three
Speaker 1: to the part. Three of the four par threes are
Speaker 1: longer than two hundred yards, and all three of the
Speaker 1: par fives are between five hundred and ninety and six
Speaker 1: hundred yards. That includes the five hundred and ninety sixth
Speaker 1: eighteenth five hundred and ninety six yard eighteenth hole. It's
Speaker 1: a risk reward par five that plays shorter than its
Speaker 1: length if players are willing to try a risky second
Speaker 1: shot over a pond. Now the defending three M Open
Speaker 1: champ as Jonathan Vegas. Johnny Vegas finished seventeen under par
Speaker 1: last year to beat Max Grazerman by one shot. Lee
Speaker 1: Hodges was a runaway winner in twenty twenty three with
Speaker 1: a score of twenty four under par. Tony Final was
Speaker 1: seventeen under to win in twenty twenty two, and Cameron
Speaker 1: Champ won in twenty twenty one. He was fifteen under.
Speaker 1: The weather forecast for the tournament, high temperatures in the
Speaker 1: low eighties all four days chances for rain each day,
Speaker 1: but no apparent danger of a washout. Light wins in
Speaker 1: the five to ten miles per hour range throughout the tournaments.
Speaker 1: But now that we have a pretty good sample size
Speaker 1: on TPC twin Cities, what are some of the things
Speaker 1: you're keying in on this week when handicapping the field.
Speaker 2: It really comes down to ball striking. The opposite of
Speaker 2: the Open Championship is where you're looking at scrambling and
Speaker 2: around the green stats pretty heavily. I'm not looking at
Speaker 2: those at all this week. It's about off the tee prowess.
Speaker 2: Strokes gained off the tee. Driving distances a bonus in
Speaker 2: this tournament because of its length and the risk reward
Speaker 2: propositions on the par fives as well as some of
Speaker 2: the longer part fours. A birdier better percentage, of course,
Speaker 2: on easier golf course like this, you gotta have guys
Speaker 2: that a have opportunities gained at a high rate as
Speaker 2: well as be the birdier better percentage to convert those opportunities.
Speaker 2: So a lot of overlay there, and then this, because
Speaker 2: of all the water hazards, you got to throw in
Speaker 2: some bogie avoidance trying to avoid the big number below
Speaker 2: up is it's kind of it's kind of killed a
Speaker 2: couple of potential winners like Grazerman, who I bet on
Speaker 2: last year, who probably would have won if he didn't
Speaker 2: find some hazards, some penalty areas during his course of
Speaker 2: the of the tournament. It's it all comes down to
Speaker 2: making lots of birdies and avoiding that really big crooked number,
Speaker 2: and then ball striking, ball striking, ball striking approach, game driving.
Speaker 2: It's going to be really important to get from tee
Speaker 2: to green and then a hot putter. I'm looking at
Speaker 2: the last twenty four rounds of putting on bent grass
Speaker 2: and that should round it out. It's a pretty straightforward
Speaker 2: model this week. Not a lot of filtering. I just
Speaker 2: want to make sure that we get the hottest golfers
Speaker 2: playing the best golf right now, and the guys who
Speaker 2: can convert enough berties to win this thing.
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting because a lot of the players with
Speaker 1: shorter odds are big hitters who are not great in
Speaker 1: the driving accuracy category. We'll take a look at those
Speaker 1: odds in just a moment. Right after Bow tells you
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Speaker 2: so I guess it balances out. That's right.
Speaker 1: Let's dig into the odds for the three m open.
Speaker 1: All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. As a Monday afternoon,
Speaker 1: Sam Burns opens as the favoritest at plus sixteen hundred.
Speaker 1: Chris got her up was red hot and Sktlin in
Speaker 1: Northern Ireland. In the past two weeks, he's plus eighteen hundred,
Speaker 1: as is Maverick McNeely, Max Grazerman and Taylor Penrith are
Speaker 1: plus twenty eight hundred. Plus thirty five hundred are Michael Thorbiornson,
Speaker 1: Jay Knapp, Tony Finow, Davis Thompson or Ricky Foller. And
Speaker 1: the big group at plus four thousand includes Akshay Batilla,
Speaker 1: Max Homa, Kurt Kitty Yama, Keith Mitchell, Milliano, Grio, Sung
Speaker 1: JM and Seewu Kim. Who do you like from this group?
Speaker 2: Oh? Right off the top? I did see Sam Burns
Speaker 2: recently slip to eighteen to one to be the same
Speaker 2: line as Chris Gottrup. I like Chris Gottrup's form, especially
Speaker 2: his tee degreen game has never been in question. His
Speaker 2: short game has really showed a resurgence, especially last two weeks.
Speaker 2: He's won two point seven million dollars last two weeks.
Speaker 2: Pretty solid for a trip around the links a few times.
Speaker 2: I like him in eighteen to one as the outright
Speaker 2: betting favorite. His te degreen game is really going to
Speaker 2: play here, his distance will definitely play here, and he's
Speaker 2: riding a hot putter. So let's let's get on the
Speaker 2: Chris Gottrup train and ride it until the wheels fall off.
Speaker 2: He's only what twenty four years old, He's got a
Speaker 2: lot of future ahead of him. As far as other
Speaker 2: guys in this range, I'll hone in on another guy
Speaker 2: who's a long hitter who makes a lot of birdies,
Speaker 2: especially in this kype of tournament. I like Michael thorpe
Speaker 2: Jornsen but and Akhabatiya Kurk Kitdem. But these guys are
Speaker 2: all in my model pretty highly ranked. But I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go to Jake Napp. Jake Nap is the kind of
Speaker 2: guy that thirty five to one the handicapped system for me.
Speaker 2: I had him more of his a twenty five to
Speaker 2: one pick in this field, and to get an extra
Speaker 2: ten points out of the bet really sings to me.
Speaker 2: All the other guys that I like are a little
Speaker 2: too short for my liking based on how I handicapped it.
Speaker 2: So I will stick with Jake Nap at thirty five
Speaker 2: to one to round out the favorites.
Speaker 1: Oh, you know, I'm a Jake Nap guy. BO. He's
Speaker 1: finished inside the top thirty in each of his last
Speaker 1: four events, including a Big Cista, Big Siesta, including a
Speaker 1: fourth place finish at the Rocket Classic. Napp did withdraw
Speaker 1: from last year's three M Classic, ostensibly due to a
Speaker 1: shoulder injury or because he was having a miserable third round.
Speaker 1: Nap is a big hitter and ranks twelfth in strokes
Speaker 1: game putting, but he does rank one hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: first in driving accuracy.
Speaker 2: BO.
Speaker 1: That's kind of the same deal with Chris got Her
Speaker 1: Up too. You know, got Her Up is second on
Speaker 1: tour in driving distance, one hundred and fifty seventh in
Speaker 1: driving accuracy. Got Her Up is like, I wonder if
Speaker 1: there's any sort of could he be a little emotionally
Speaker 1: spent after two weeks of you know, winning one and
Speaker 1: contending in another, and you know, then coming back overseas.
Speaker 1: I just I feel like Jake Knapp gives you a
Speaker 1: very similar profile of player at a much better price.
Speaker 2: It's yeah, it's it's definitely there. I like both of them.
Speaker 2: I'm going to bet on both of them. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to be over my skis investing a lot of
Speaker 2: money in any of these guys, but I have enough
Speaker 2: guys that I really like that I'm going to kind
Speaker 2: of buckshot approach it this week with small investments and
Speaker 2: a lot of guys. So with the way I'm spending
Speaker 2: my money this week, I'll take a chance on both
Speaker 2: of them. But I do get your point with the
Speaker 2: line on Nap is unbelievably good and got her up
Speaker 2: as a favorite to eighteen to one. I'm just taking
Speaker 2: a chance that he stays hot. He despite being not
Speaker 2: that accurate off the tea, he still strokes gained off
Speaker 2: the ta number eight in this field, that's actually number
Speaker 2: six in this field, and strokes gained off the tea.
Speaker 2: That's good enough for me. A twenty fifth and overall
Speaker 2: ball striking and riding the hottest putter of his entire career.
Speaker 2: That's where I'm going there. It's just the upside's good
Speaker 2: and payoff for a betting favorite. It doesn't get much
Speaker 2: better than eighteen to one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the sand Burns couldn't crack the top forty in
Speaker 1: either the Scottish Open or the Open Championship, but before
Speaker 1: that he had finished top twenty and seven of his
Speaker 1: previous eight events dating back to April. Burns has made
Speaker 1: three previous appearances at the three M Open, finishing seventh,
Speaker 1: thirty second and twelfth, and he does rank number one
Speaker 1: in strokes gained putting. Now, Maverick McNeely played reasonably well
Speaker 1: in Europe the last two weeks, twenty second in Scotland,
Speaker 1: twenty third at Royal Port Rush. He finished third at
Speaker 1: the three M last year. McNeely ranks inside the top
Speaker 1: forty most strokes gained off the tee and strokes game putting.
Speaker 1: What about Wyndham clarkbow heated up in Europe, eleventh at
Speaker 1: the Scottish Open, then surged into fourth place at the
Speaker 1: Open Championship with that sixty five on Sunday, But he
Speaker 1: ranks one hundred and thirty eighth in driving accuracy, one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty seventh in strokes gained on approach.
Speaker 2: Not interested at all in Wyndham Clark. He's just too
Speaker 2: spray happy. He got the benefit of some light wins
Speaker 2: on a wide open golf course like Royal Port Rush
Speaker 2: wasn't difficult to find the fairways. It was just kind
Speaker 2: of like the you just only missed him if you
Speaker 2: ran through him, like you carried the ball too far.
Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark really fits that link style play better because
Speaker 2: he plays along the ground a little bit more. I
Speaker 2: just don't think he's accurate enough on approach for this tournament.
Speaker 2: I think you'd be fine off the tee, but his
Speaker 2: approach game has not been good. So I'll take a
Speaker 2: hard pass on Wyndham Clark, especially since he's just kind
Speaker 2: of been streaky and in the worst way where just
Speaker 2: when we think he's gonna get hot, he throws out
Speaker 2: a miscut by five shots and you'res like, Okay, happened.
Speaker 2: What happened to Wyndham Clark? All of a sudden He
Speaker 2: went from number six in the world to twenty in
Speaker 2: like two week span. So I don't think I want
Speaker 2: anything to do with that.
Speaker 1: Just to mention a few of these other guys. Max
Speaker 1: Grazerman runner up at the Three of Them Open last year.
Speaker 1: He missed the cut at the Scottish Open and the
Speaker 1: Open Championship, but had been playing pretty well before that.
Speaker 1: He's one hundred and forty ninth in driving accuracy, but
Speaker 1: his driving didn't really hurt him here. Last year, Taylor
Speaker 1: Pendrith missed the cut at the Open Championship. He'd been
Speaker 1: playing well before that too. He was fifth at the
Speaker 1: three M last year, ranks seventh and strokes gained off
Speaker 1: the tee, but he's outside the top one hundred and
Speaker 1: strokes gained putting. Emiliano Grio is a pretty good track
Speaker 1: record in this event, with three top tens in his
Speaker 1: last five appearance appearances plus a twenty fourth last year,
Speaker 1: and really Grio's worst The worst thing about his game
Speaker 1: is is scrambling, and that weakness is sort of negated
Speaker 1: here with the big greens and high greens of regulation percentage.
Speaker 1: And Ricky Folerball quietly finished top twenty five of his
Speaker 1: last eight events. His best finish other than that's over
Speaker 1: that stretch, though, was only a seventh at the Memorial.
Speaker 2: I will keep tabs on Taylor Pendrith. I hate his
Speaker 2: line right now plus twenty one hundred way too short.
Speaker 2: But if he slips, he's number three in my model.
Speaker 2: So if Pendrith gets to thirty five to one, I'll
Speaker 2: be interested.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's look at some more of the odds.
Speaker 1: Adam Scotts plus forty five hundred, Luke Clanton, Kevin You
Speaker 1: and Cameron Champ are plus five thousand, Alex Smalley, Matt Wallace,
Speaker 1: Lee Hodges, Yesters Fencing, Vince Whaley and Rico Hoye are
Speaker 1: plus fifty five hundred, and at plus six thousand our
Speaker 1: Patrick Fishburn, Nicholas Norgard, Johnny Vegas, Jacob Bridgeman, Hatong Lee,
Speaker 1: Sam Stevens and See Thagala, And at plus sixty five
Speaker 1: hundred Alex Nora and Maddy Schmidt and Peterson Coody. What
Speaker 1: about the mid range options.
Speaker 2: Bo Luke Clanton all the way number one in my
Speaker 2: model by a long distance. Really yeah, Luke Clinton, by
Speaker 2: far number one in my model. He is no worse
Speaker 2: than forty ninth in any stat which happens to be
Speaker 2: bogey avoidance. He happens to be a very aggressive player,
Speaker 2: so not the greatest at avoiding the big number, but
Speaker 2: forty ninth is still top half of the pack. He's
Speaker 2: number one, and Birdie's are better. Gain number five an
Speaker 2: opportunities gained, so he's given himself lots of chances and
Speaker 2: he's converting them at an extremely high clip. Number two
Speaker 2: in ball striking twenty fourth and putting on my model
Speaker 2: and number four on approach. He hits all the boxes
Speaker 2: for me. There's there's just one concern that he might
Speaker 2: make some crooked numbers, but he's been really good at
Speaker 2: make enough birdies to counteract that. If he could put
Speaker 2: four days together rather than three, I think Luke Clinton
Speaker 2: runs away with this. Saying fifty to one is a steal.
Speaker 2: I kind of had to flip a coin between him
Speaker 2: at fifty and Thorby Jornsen at forty and the tiebreaker
Speaker 2: with Thorby. Jornsen can't make a putt lately, so I
Speaker 2: was all over that Clinton line, getting extra bit of
Speaker 2: value there. And then Patrick Fishburne another guy. It's just
Speaker 2: a great ball striker. He's number one in strokes gained
Speaker 2: off the tee in this field, fourth and overall ball
Speaker 2: striking fifteenth and birdie or better percentage. Just great odds
Speaker 2: for a player that's playing really well. And then eighty
Speaker 2: to one. I have Kevin Roy because he's got all
Speaker 2: the upside in the world. He's playing a little bit
Speaker 2: shaky on the link style, but when it comes to
Speaker 2: playing on bent grass, Kevin Roy's got some upside to burn.
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting, you might be talking me in to Clinton
Speaker 1: hasn't really gotten it going yet, but like you said,
Speaker 1: there have been moments and he just can't seem to
Speaker 1: string four rounce together in a tournament. So maybe this
Speaker 1: is the week. Adam Scott at plus forty five hundred
Speaker 1: seems like a bargain. We're getting a big name at
Speaker 1: relatively long odds. But if this event is going to
Speaker 1: be largely a putting contest, and maybe it does turn
Speaker 1: into that, do we want to back Adam Scott in
Speaker 1: a putting contest?
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Cam Champ is a pretty strong history at the three M.
Speaker 1: He won this event in twenty twenty one. In the
Speaker 1: two three am appearances since, he's finished sixteenth and twelve
Speaker 1: Before missing the cut at the Barracuda last week, Champ
Speaker 1: had finished top twenty and three of his previous four events,
Speaker 1: so he's going to keep an eye on Nora cal
Speaker 1: hatong Lee is kind of interesting after the strong showing
Speaker 1: at the Open, but it seemed like he was barely
Speaker 1: in control of his driver and Hatungley hits everything left
Speaker 1: to right bo like that is kind of a scary
Speaker 1: proposition on a course that has so much water on
Speaker 1: the right side of holes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's a great story though.
Speaker 1: It is. And Johnny Vegas not only did he win
Speaker 1: here last year, he also finished second here in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one. Maybe driving accuracy isn't that big a deal here.
Speaker 1: Johnny Vegas was one hundred and twenty eighth in that
Speaker 1: category last year. He's one hundred and fifty sixth this year.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk long shots, bo, who do you
Speaker 1: like at odds of seventy to one or longer?
Speaker 2: I jumped the gun a little bit with eighty to
Speaker 2: one on Kevin Roy. But I do like Hayden Springer
Speaker 2: again this week. He finished top ten at the Barracuda.
Speaker 2: But Springer just a really solid golfer one hundred and
Speaker 2: ten to one, just an overall solid player, doesn't really
Speaker 2: have any weak spots. Chan Kim is playing really well
Speaker 2: right now. He's at one hundred and seventy to one,
Speaker 2: and I'll take another norcou guy at two hundred to one.
Speaker 2: I actually got to chat with him at the barracudah
Speaker 2: on Saturday. Isaiah Selinda talk about a birdie making machine
Speaker 2: that kid can make him in bunches. He hits the
Speaker 2: snot out of the ball. Yeah, Selinda is a kind
Speaker 2: of a fun five dollars bet to throw down two
Speaker 2: hundred to one win a thousand bucks off a five
Speaker 2: dollars bet. He's already won us money at the Zurich
Speaker 2: this year, next to Kevin Vello. I just like him
Speaker 2: a lot. He's He's such a fun guy to have
Speaker 2: on tour, and I'll keep betting on him because that's
Speaker 2: just that's good. It's incentive to watch more.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll throw out three long shots at various
Speaker 1: price points at seventy to one. Andrew Putnam, He's done
Speaker 1: well in some recent events with lesser fields. Eighth at
Speaker 1: the Rocket Classic, eleventh at the Barracuda. He was also
Speaker 1: sixth that the Canadian opened, so he can go against
Speaker 1: some stronger fields. He's finished eleventh and nineteenth in his
Speaker 1: last two to three m appearances. One of the shortest
Speaker 1: hitters on tour, but Putnam does rank fourth and driving
Speaker 1: accuracy in fifteenth at Strokes Gained Potting Thriston Lawrence bo
Speaker 1: the South African, pretty good driver of the ball, and.
Speaker 2: He's almost made my card. He almost.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's had some good showings in America this year,
Speaker 1: twelfth at the US Open, eighth at the Rocket Classic,
Speaker 1: and I'll throw in one deep sleeper Englishman David Skins
Speaker 1: at two hundred to one. Skins was fourth at the
Speaker 1: ESCO Championship two weeks ago, eighth at the Barracouda this
Speaker 1: past week, and he finished twenty fourth at the three
Speaker 1: M Open last year. All right, bo let's compare early
Speaker 1: betting cards. Who do you have on yours?
Speaker 2: So I got a lot of small ones here at
Speaker 2: Chris gottr Up at eighteen to one, Jake Napp thirty
Speaker 2: five to one, Michael Thorbjorn sent at forty to one.
Speaker 2: If I can get him a little longer, I'm still
Speaker 2: I haven't put a lot on him yet. Luke Clinton's
Speaker 2: getting the full ladder at fifty to one, Patrick Fishburn
Speaker 2: sixty to one, Kevin Roy eighty to one, Hayden Springer
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten to one, Chan Kim one hundred
Speaker 2: and seventy to one, and finally Isaiah Selinda two hundred
Speaker 2: to one.
Speaker 1: I'm keeping my card relatively light for now. You've almost
Speaker 1: got me talked into Luke Clinton, But for now it's
Speaker 1: Jake Napp at thirty five to one, emiliano'grio at forty
Speaker 1: to one horse for a course, I kind of like
Speaker 1: Grio This week, Thriston Lawrence at one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: to one, and David Skins for probably two dollars at
Speaker 1: two hundred to one. Now for our one and done picks,
Speaker 1: I took Tyrrel Hatton last week. He felled on the
Speaker 1: leaderboard on Sunday, finished tied for sixteenth, earning me one
Speaker 1: thy eight hundred excuse me, one hundred and eighty five thousand,
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty seven dollars. Bo took Rory McElroy.
Speaker 1: He tied for seventh, good for four hundred and fifty one,
Speaker 1: eight hundred and thirty three dollars. Bow UPS's lead on
Speaker 1: me to about eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars, and
Speaker 1: we only have a few weeks left. Since we're not
Speaker 1: including the Tour Championship in our competition, I'm up first
Speaker 1: this week. Bo. I have some concerns that he might
Speaker 1: be out of gas after the two great weeks in Europe,
Speaker 1: but I do have to go with the blazing hot
Speaker 1: Chris Godder up. Who are you taking?
Speaker 2: That's who I was gonna pick. Let's see. I want
Speaker 2: to make sure I haven't used him. I used him.
Speaker 2: I used him. Man, this isrough. He I burned through
Speaker 2: all my good guys. This is not great.
Speaker 1: I still have Jake Nap in the bag. If you
Speaker 1: want a double down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it. Jake Nap all right, nagaham or
Speaker 2: fishburn and I don't think I want to do that.
Speaker 1: Jake Nap for bo and Chris Godder up for me.
Speaker 1: That's all for this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. Please join
Speaker 1: us again next week when we'll be previewing the final
Speaker 1: tournament before the FEDECS Cup playoffs, the wind Them Championship.
Speaker 1: Until then, so long everyone.
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