1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: All right, it's Thursday, but there's still some MNA deals 7 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: to talk about. It's a fairly sizable one, if not 8 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: one that we had anticipated for a while. 9 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm glad we have our next guest because 10 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 3: it's all about that side of the balanchie. 11 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 4: All right, let's talk to Jody Lorii. 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 2: Jody Lorii is one of our credit analysts here and 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: she covers the travel and leisure sector for us here 14 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Intelligence. And it's about Caesar's agreeing to buy 15 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 2: i should say, being taken over by Tomyan Fertita. Fertida 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: Entertainment is paying Caesar's shareholders thirty one dollars a share 17 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: in cash. But in order to pay that cash, they're 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: going to have to take out some debt. So, Jody, 19 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: this is something that you know, feels like it's a 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,320 Speaker 2: long time coming because till and Fertida has been working 21 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: on this for a while, right. 22 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 5: Right, so, Scarlett, I mean, I think you know this 23 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 5: has been rumored about since actually around the time of 24 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 5: the IDEs of March. I was super excited that the 25 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 5: announcement would happen on the eides of March, just for 26 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 5: all the references with Caesar's. Unfortunately we had to wait 27 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 5: another couple months. That said, I think, you know, it's 28 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 5: been so compelling about this story, and I think what 29 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 5: sort of brings up a lot of uncomfortableness in the 30 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 5: bond market is the history with the name. Now, mind you, 31 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 5: the Caesars now is actually El Dorado that bought Caesars 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 5: out of bankruptcy, and that's not the same Caesars that 33 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 5: we're talking about. That was the leverage buyout that went 34 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 5: through the restructuring. And even so, I think a lot 35 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 5: of bondholders, for good reason, are a little bit uncomfortableable 36 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 5: by this story in general. 37 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: So I've got a net det the EBATA and I 38 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: went through the Chase Manhattan Bank credit training program way 39 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: back in the nice nice to do that, But I've 40 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 3: got EBATHA of only like three points. I got north 41 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 3: of six times on the leverage basis. Thirty people like you. 42 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 3: You guys don't like that. 43 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 4: No, no, we don't, Paul. 44 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 5: And to make matters worse, the big question that we're 45 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 5: grappling with is whether or not the change of control 46 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 5: provision gets executed. Not to go into too much detail, 47 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 5: but to make it as simple as possible. In the 48 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 5: course of a transaction, there's some bond terms that allow 49 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 5: bondholders to put the bonds back to the company, and 50 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 5: so in those instances you get one hundred and one 51 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 5: percent of par and that's not potentially happening here. We're 52 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 5: not sure at the moment. And what we're seeing though, 53 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 5: is that if you look at the bonds, they're not 54 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 5: trading like they would be put back at one hundred 55 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 5: and one percent of par. So every indication we're seeing 56 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,399 Speaker 5: is that perhaps that's not going to get executed, which 57 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 5: means that is only you know, about a six billion 58 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 5: dollar price tag in terms of borrowing as opposed to 59 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 5: an eighteen billion dollar price price tag in terms of borrow. 60 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 5: So that's a big nut to sort of rapple with. 61 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 5: Is whether they have to refinance all that almost twelve 62 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 5: billion dollars of debt or if they just have to 63 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 5: issue new debt. And lever up the balance sheet further, 64 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 5: and bond holders are along for the ride. 65 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: Okay, So anyway you look at it, there's gonna be 66 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,679 Speaker 2: a lot of moving parts here in order to get 67 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: this deal done. Jody, you mentioned that there's some discomfort 68 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: here for Caesar's bondholders. Is this going to get in 69 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: the way of there being enough demand? I mean, is 70 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: this going to affect pricing and the concessions that might 71 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: need to be made? 72 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 5: I think Scarlett, it really depends on timing. It depends 73 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 5: on the communication. We've been really sort of surprised over 74 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 5: and again by the appetite of bondholders and potential creditors 75 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 5: out there. 76 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: Now. 77 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 5: Will they have to pay up for it? It's very possible, 78 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 5: And I think that that creates the sort of interesting 79 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 5: component too, is that if you're talking about a company 80 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 5: that is already having issue US from a profitability perspective, 81 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 5: CASHUW hasn't been where it wants to be. Management was 82 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 5: focused up until Icon got involved last year. They were 83 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 5: actually focused on deleveraging, but they weren't getting ebadah up. 84 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 5: So they were bringing down debt and they were refinancing debt, 85 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 5: and they were improving the capital structure. But Ebidah wasn't budging. 86 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 5: So now we're in a scenario where we say, okay, 87 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 5: we're going to, you know, lever up the company further 88 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 5: from a net profit a cashlow standpoint, What does that 89 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 5: necessarily mean if you know they're going to be paying 90 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 5: up on an interest basis. So it's really a complicated conversation, 91 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 5: and I think it's one where nobody's going to be 92 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 5: looking at this lighthearted when they're when they if and 93 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 5: when the deal goes through and if and when they 94 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 5: do issue debt. 95 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 4: I think there's going to be a. 96 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 5: Lot of people calling over many documents to decide if 97 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 5: it makes sense for them. 98 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 99 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 100 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am. He's done on Apple, Coarclay, and 101 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 102 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 103 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 3: Scarlet Film Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 104 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 3: Broker's studio, streaming live on YouTube as well a lot 105 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 3: of tech news as always, and so fortunately we have 106 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 3: an expert that can help us out here. Caroline Hyde, 107 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 3: b Tech co anchor. 108 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 4: For Bloomberg News. 109 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 3: Journey us here in our studio, Caroline, let's start with Snowflake. 110 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 3: There's a software company that said we're doing just fine, 111 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 3: thank you, and the stock is up like thirty percent 112 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 3: or something crazy. 113 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 6: It is adding twenty two. 114 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 7: Billion dollars to its market cat on the day it 115 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 7: is surging thirty five percent because its product revenue is 116 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 7: up thirty four percent, and it guided that that's the 117 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 7: kind of rate you should be expecting. This growth rate 118 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 7: is going to be about thirty one percent for the 119 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 7: full year, and it's all about AI. 120 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 6: Being intertwined into this business. 121 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 7: They've got Cortex, which is their coding tool, more than 122 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 7: seven thousand subscriptions to that already, and it's just adding 123 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 7: to the annual revenue run rate where you can see 124 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 7: monetization of generative AI. And also look, they're striking big 125 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 7: deals with Amazon, which seems to be a bit of 126 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 7: a win win. Yes, Amazon gets six billion dollars of 127 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 7: Snowflakes for infrastructure and chips, but Snowflake in return gets 128 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 7: more deeply intertwined into Amazon's business model. 129 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 6: They can build out to yet more customers. 130 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 7: And also they get more efficient, cheaper chips, so the 131 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 7: ideas they bring down their own computing costs. 132 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 2: Okay, so that's the kind of news that investors want 133 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 2: to see. 134 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 4: Marvel is a. 135 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: Chip maker, right it is, and the stack is down, 136 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 2: but the headlines sound pretty positive. 137 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, Like this is a company that's many had been 138 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 7: excited running into. Like it was up about one hundred 139 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 7: percent so far yet today and the rally had been 140 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 7: extending overnight. 141 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 6: Maybe we pull back a bit today. 142 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 7: Maybe there is profit taking, but shares initially postmarket had 143 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 7: been in the pre market had been higher. 144 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 6: Is the results of the outlo look pretty good. 145 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 7: It's all about again AI, It's all about a six, 146 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 7: It's about custom chips being built. This is about the 147 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 7: future of how we're not just in video as the 148 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 7: only key winner. Look with Amazon and Striking, it's deal 149 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 7: with Snowflake. It's seeing its graviton chips being used a 150 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 7: little bit more, maybe replacing an Intel and Bloomberg Intelligence 151 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 7: is saying around Marvel that that they're raising the fiscal 152 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 7: twenty twenty seven twenty eight sales outlooked by about five 153 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 7: percent ten percent. Stronger data center demand is really what's 154 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 7: driving this as accelerating growth. This is what investors want 155 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 7: to see, a reacceleration of growth, organic acceleration of growth, 156 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 7: and that is coming in the back of whether it's 157 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 7: AI adoption, whether it's AI infrastructure, no matter how you 158 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 7: cut it. 159 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 6: But maybe with. 160 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 7: Some of these stocks, they have just run so far 161 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 7: so fast. Remember, like the likes of Snowflake have been 162 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 7: pretty been nut running into these Now it's. 163 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 3: Interesting you mentioned, like with Snowflake, if you put up 164 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 3: the numbers, and that's what a lot of like Agrana 165 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 3: was saying, Hey, these software companies, they've been beaten up, 166 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 3: so the only recourse you have is to put. 167 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 8: Up the numbers. 168 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 3: Snowflake did. I thought Salesforce did last night as well, 169 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 3: but stocks only up like one percent and their guidance 170 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 3: was a little tipid relative to expectations. So agreed, Maybe 171 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 3: they didn't get the convincing job that they needed. 172 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 7: I mean, what more can Mark Benioff say apart from 173 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 7: repeating that it was a record quarter and is record 174 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 7: sales and record cash pile. But people really want to 175 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 7: see this acceleration of organic growth. Now we know that 176 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 7: mar Benioff has been very good at acquisitions over the years, 177 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 7: and Informatica was helping with this latest quarter and we 178 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 7: saw an addition of revenue there. But how much of 179 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 7: this is actually Salesforce's bread and butter, more subscriptions, more 180 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 7: bums on seats is kind of the way they're still 181 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 7: currently asking for to be paid here and with Anna 182 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 7: Agran has done such great work from Bloomberg Intelligence side, 183 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 7: saying like there. 184 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 6: Is still actually apart from AI. 185 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 7: There is a reticence in it spending right now. We 186 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 7: are nervous about the macro, so is Agent Force going. 187 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 6: To make up for that? The annual revenue run rate 188 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 6: there is going to be one point two billion dollars. 189 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 6: That's nothing to be sniffed at. 190 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 7: But in the grandest scheme of revenues for Sniff, for CRM, 191 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 7: for Salesforce, it's. 192 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 6: Only a few percentage points. We need to see more 193 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:49,079 Speaker 6: addition there. 194 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 2: I think great context and Caroline, before we let you go, 195 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 2: I understand that you were part of a team that 196 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 2: won an Emmy. 197 00:08:55,440 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 7: We did little tired today because the Emmy's first time. 198 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 6: Going, and yeah we won for Primer. 199 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 7: We do on Bloomberg Originals, we do a really interesting 200 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 7: twenty minute primer on anything to do with technology. Really 201 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 7: we've had it was our first series that was up 202 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 7: for the award, and then all about magnets and how 203 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 7: important geopolitically they are, why China versus us? 204 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 2: What? 205 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 6: And these things keep coming back. We've got the latest we. 206 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 7: Just finished the latest series series too, where it's about 207 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 7: nuclear it's about semiconductors, it's about things that you're hearing 208 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 7: about time and time again. How can you get an evergreen, 209 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 7: non hyped view on what this technology really means? Cut 210 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 7: through the jargon and we won an Emmy. 211 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 6: And so excited. Well, they're back being like etched into. 212 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 6: Apparently they're quite expensive. 213 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 7: You get one for free, which Alan Jefferies has got, 214 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 7: who's the amazing producer on the show. 215 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 6: And apparently we've got to wait a few weeks for ours. 216 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: You have to order the rest. 217 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 6: You've got to order the rest. I see, Yeah, just 218 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 6: walk around. 219 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 7: I've got a lot of photo I'm just gonna I'm 220 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 7: gonna throw photos you way. 221 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: We can dine out on that one while stay with us. 222 00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 2: More from Boomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 223 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 224 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto 225 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 226 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 227 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 3: Well, one of the derivative plays of the growth of 228 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 3: AI has been who's going to potentially lose in an 229 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 3: AI world? And a lot of folks were calling out, 230 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 3: you know, earlier this year software stocks, particular software as 231 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 3: services stocks, YEP names we've kind of all thought of 232 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 3: as kind of teflon names like a Salesforce dot Com. 233 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 3: Salesforce reported numbers last night. I don't know, the numbers 234 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 3: looked really good to me. The stocks up one percent, 235 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,079 Speaker 3: But they got to convince the street that they can 236 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 3: continue to grow in a world of AI. So did 237 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 3: they get it done last night? An rog Rana joins 238 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 3: this technology analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, Honra, What did you 239 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:54,079 Speaker 3: hear from CRM Salesforce from their quarter? 240 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 8: So one of the most important things we learned yesterday 241 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 8: was they are actually pivoting very strongly towards AI and 242 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 8: you know, instead of subscription but usage based products. And 243 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 8: the momentum is high. But what happens is whenever you 244 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 8: go through this transition. When you don't grow seats, you 245 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 8: will see a little bit of blip in terms of 246 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 8: the bookings growth. So organically, if you take out Informatica acquisition, 247 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 8: we are still looking at you know, soft eight nine, 248 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 8: ten percent or so booking growth at this point. And 249 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 8: I think that's where some of the concerns are. On 250 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 8: the positive side, as I said there, usage of token 251 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 8: is actually skyrocketed, and the company actually was very confident 252 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 8: in calling out a second half rebound in organic sales growth, 253 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 8: and I think we're all trying to figure out whether 254 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 8: that will happen or not, right. 255 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 2: And of course, Salesforce's own AI tool is called Agent Force, 256 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 2: and that's something that has actually seen a revenue pick 257 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 2: up over the past couple of months and years. Anraj, 258 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: you had mentioned the Informatica purchase. Does the advent of 259 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 2: AI and the threat of it taking over software copanies 260 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 2: are taking over the roles of software companies mean that 261 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 2: Salesforce needs to do more M and A. 262 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 8: So I think the problem you know, the company like Informatica, 263 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 8: which is a company that does software for data management. 264 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 8: I think this is where the biggest difference is going 265 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 8: to be between consumer AI and enterprise AI because data 266 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 8: is the biggest differentiator for enterprise AI. So company needs 267 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 8: to all the companies in the world need to figure 268 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 8: out what is their data strategy. How are they going 269 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 8: to take a look at their internal data, whether that's 270 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 8: finance data, customer service data, how are they going to 271 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 8: pull all of that together, and then they're going to 272 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 8: train that or find you that with a a large 273 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 8: language model. And that's where Informatica comes in. So to 274 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 8: your broader questions, salesforce should be doing more acquisitions, but 275 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 8: frankly speaking, yesterday we saw a massive buyback and I 276 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 8: think that's what I like more at this point, given 277 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 8: where the stock is, rather than acquisitions. 278 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 4: Anna Rad talk to us. 279 00:12:56,040 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 3: About how these software companies typically generate the revenue interested 280 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 3: in them in the seat, the per seat model, how 281 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 3: that works, and how AI may disrupt that, because that's 282 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 3: what I'm understanding, is maybe a risk point. 283 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 8: That is single biggest important factor right now. In fact, 284 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 8: that's the reason we are not so polished in terms 285 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 8: of the organic growth rate of software right now because 286 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 8: the number of seats are not growing, people are not 287 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 8: hiring at that same pace they were. In fact, you 288 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 8: see layoffs right now. So when you see that, you know, 289 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 8: whether you're selling HR software or software to salespeople, you're 290 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 8: going to see a decline in that. What Microsoft is 291 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 8: basically telling people is it's not going to be just 292 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,719 Speaker 8: a subscription based model anywhere. It's going to be subscription 293 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 8: and a usage based models, which is just because you 294 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 8: have a subscription to Gemini or a Copilot, that doesn't 295 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 8: mean you can just burn all the tokens that you want. 296 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 8: You will get up till a certain amount tokens to burn, 297 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 8: and after that you're going to be charged or metered 298 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 8: for that use. We see that in coding tools right now. 299 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 8: We see that with cloud computing services that's on AWS infrastructure, 300 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 8: and I think a lot of that model comes to 301 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 8: the SaaS model that instead of just being seat based, 302 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 8: it's going to be either entirely consumption based or a 303 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 8: combination of consumption and subscription. 304 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: Is that something that investors have priced in already on 305 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 2: RUG or is that something they're still working out. 306 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 8: I think one of the negative things about the software 307 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 8: industry is that because of that disruption in the model, 308 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 8: they will not be as profitable at this point. And 309 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 8: that's partially the reason why the valuations are going down. 310 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 8: A lot of these companies are making slow pivot to 311 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 8: that shift because on the buyers side, you really don't 312 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 8: want to sign up Fork for an unlimited plan without 313 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 8: knowing what your token bill will be by the end 314 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 8: of the month or the end of the quarter. At 315 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 8: the same time, the software company does not want to 316 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 8: give up that nucrative, very high margin seat based business. 317 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 8: So I think what we are seeing is a little 318 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 8: bit of both. Companies are experimenting with pricing models that 319 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 8: are consumption based, the buyers are doing the same thing. 320 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 8: I think we will it will take I think two 321 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 8: to three years before we finally figured out what combination 322 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 8: of seed based and consumption based model wins. We think 323 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 8: it's going to be more of an enterprise agreement where 324 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 8: somebody like a salesforce or a microsoftware tele company, you 325 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 8: spend this much money with me every month, and we're 326 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 8: going to give you all these products that go with it. 327 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 328 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 329 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coplay and Android 330 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App listen on demand wherever 331 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 332 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 2: Cool shares are up sixteen percent on better than expected results. 333 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 2: When I say better, it just means compared to estimates, 334 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 2: because the numbers are still going in the wrong direction. 335 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 2: We're still looking at a loss for the bottom line, 336 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 2: and comparable sales continue to be in the negative rain 337 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 2: Mary Ross Gilbert is our senior equity analyst covering retail 338 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 2: and joins us now with more. Especially's let's start with 339 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 2: Coles because I mentioned comparable sales down one point one percent. Analysts, 340 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: we're looking for a drop of one point seven percent. 341 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 2: What is Coals doing differently to stem the tide? 342 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, Scarlett, So what Coles is doing is they've really 343 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 9: ramped up their private brands. Those are the opening price 344 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 9: point items, and these are the things that their low core, 345 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 9: low income consumer really wants. And so they're seeing success 346 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 9: in women's particularly with their so Junior's line. So that's 347 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 9: their own proprietary brand, so Soo, and that was up 348 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 9: ten percent in the quarter. The overall proprietary brands was 349 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 9: up six percent. But remember that they're also cycling a 350 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 9: period in which private brands was you know, previously de emphasized, 351 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 9: and so with the current CEO, Michael Bender, when he 352 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 9: came on board, that was the first thing he did 353 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 9: was ramp up private and that's the reason why you're 354 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 9: starting to see sales lift there. But Scarlett, you raised 355 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 9: a valid point. Sales were still down. They were down 356 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,719 Speaker 9: one point one percent. They were cycling four years of 357 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 9: stack declines, really three if you exclude twenty twenty one 358 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 9: when they were really benefiting from that sort of post 359 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 9: COVID lift. So you know, yeah, it's sales are not 360 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 9: in the right direction yet. 361 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 4: Could they get there by the fourth quarter? 362 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 9: Maybe all of the initiatives that they're doing with these 363 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 9: deal bars, you know, these are items that are priced 364 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 9: at like four ninety nine, five ninety nine, and you 365 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 9: know everything is under ten dollars. Same with the toy 366 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 9: towers that they have, and then also they have impulse 367 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 9: items and so all of those little things add to 368 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 9: the basket and that's helping to minimize the declines and sales. 369 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 9: But again they're cycling four years of stack declines going forward. 370 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 9: So that makes for an easy comparison. And when we 371 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 9: look at the data, we're seeing that the second quarter 372 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 9: is tracking in line to slightly better than consensus estimates 373 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 9: for one percent sales decline in the second quarter. 374 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:12,919 Speaker 4: Is this how much of this is? 375 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 3: Kind of the market they're in the segment they're in 376 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 3: versus their own execution. 377 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 9: Well, actually, Paul, so it's really it's their own execution. 378 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 9: And so the current CEO, and he's like the fourth 379 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 9: that they've had in the last probably four years, it 380 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 9: seems like he's making the most progress. But again, you know, 381 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 9: we are coming from a long period of sales declines. 382 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 9: So but these little initiatives seem to make sense. They're 383 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 9: doing a better job with planning an allocation. So their 384 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 9: spring seasonal merchandise was up in the quarter, so that 385 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 9: was encouraging, and they learned that because they sort of 386 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 9: missed sales in the fall last year. The other thing 387 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 9: is they've right sided their promotional activity. 388 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 4: They stab on that during the crucial holiday period. 389 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 9: So now they've really ramped that up because let's face it, 390 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 9: in the first quarter, there was a two point six 391 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 9: billion dollar gain just in off price sales just from 392 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 9: the Big three, So they're continuing to lose share to 393 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 9: the Big three and off price you know, we just 394 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 9: had Burlington's numbers out today. 395 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 4: Their comparable sales were up six percent. 396 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then let's not even get into the tjx's 397 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 2: of the world, which are kind of into their own category. 398 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 2: I want to get your take on a more traditional retailer, 399 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 2: kind of a legacy retailer, and that's GAP. GAP will 400 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 2: be reporting results as well. It's got a number of 401 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 2: different brands, Old Navy, Banana, Republic, and of course the 402 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 2: I guess they call it just the blue brand Gap. Overall, 403 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 2: I think about Gap and how it's really picked up 404 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,199 Speaker 2: a lot of cachet of late. There's a collaboration with 405 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 2: I think Victoria Beckham, was. 406 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 4: It absolutely yeah? 407 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 2: And things like that get people's attention. I don't know 408 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 2: if it's translating into sales though, is it. 409 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 4: Oh, it absolutely is translating into sale. I mean sales. 410 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 9: When you look at their comparable sales gains, they've been 411 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 9: higher than that of Old Navy. Old Navy is their 412 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 9: largest brand's about fifty six percent of revenues. Gap is 413 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 9: the next largest brand, and that's you know, almost thirty 414 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 9: percent somewhere around there. And so no, they've been experiencing 415 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 9: very strong comp gains there. I think what they're looking 416 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 9: for in the quarter is, you know, somewhere around that 417 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 9: three to four percent for the Gap brand. 418 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 4: So you're right, you're seeing some strength. 419 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 9: And I think that these collaborations, the campaigns all create 420 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 9: a wonderful halo. And when you speak to millennials and 421 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 9: gen z, you will hear them talk about Gap. So 422 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 9: in fact, I'm wearing a collab from last year. This 423 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 9: is Gap ex Melbourne. It's a favorite golf brand and 424 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 9: I really like it and I hope they come out 425 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 9: with another one that one and then Dohan like the 426 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 9: Doan collab as well. 427 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 4: So it does work, by it does work. 428 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 3: So what are your companies Mary, What are they saying 429 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 3: just about the consumer in general these days? 430 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 9: Paul, What we're finding out is that the consumer, even 431 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 9: at the very low end, is really proving resilient. So 432 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 9: in fact, that was something that Burlington noted that they 433 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 9: haven't seen any signs of weakness. And of course in 434 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 9: the off price their customer base, most of their customers 435 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 9: are really at the very low end. They go paycheck 436 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 9: to paycheck, and Coles is sort of similarly positioned in 437 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 9: terms of their core customer so same sort of thing, 438 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 9: except it's hard with Coles because there's other issues going 439 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 9: on in terms of execution. But generally, with all the 440 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 9: retailers that have reported so far, we're not seeing any 441 00:21:53,400 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 9: pushback or signs of hesitancy on the consumer part. So 442 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 9: I still think that if there's some fresh newness or 443 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 9: something that's exciting and they have to have it, maybe 444 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 9: they might pass up on buying a favorite food brand 445 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 9: in the grocery store or cut back there. But if 446 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 9: there's something that really makes them happy, I think they're 447 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 9: going to make that discretionary purchase, particularly since really with 448 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 9: a low unemployment rate, when you have a job, you 449 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 9: feel pretty good. 450 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 451 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 452 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 453 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 454 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 455 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal