1
00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Better than Most, Better than Most,

2
00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:07,080
Speaker 1: Better than.

3
00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:16,960
Speaker 2: Most, Winter Winner, trick your Down, You got real talent,

4
00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:18,720
Speaker 2: Go concentrate on God.

5
00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:20,239
Speaker 3: Welcome to the.

6
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,920
Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm your host Mike

7
00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 4: Calvaries and I'll be joined every Wednesday by Spencer Agiar

8
00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,880
Speaker 4: and Kyle Murray as we dive into upcoming PGA tournaments

9
00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 4: throughout the entire season. But today we're going to be

10
00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,159
Speaker 4: starting with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which, if your bartender

11
00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,519
Speaker 4: doesn't know it, it's the half Lemonade, Half Iced Tea Invitational. This,

12
00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:40,960
Speaker 4: of course, was a course that was dominated by Tiger

13
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,320
Speaker 4: Woods throws career. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational eight

14
00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,720
Speaker 4: times and he also won at bay Hill in nineteen

15
00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:51,400
Speaker 4: ninety one for the US Junior Amateur. Well Woods loved Bayhill.

16
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,800
Speaker 4: This course has the potential to chew up and spit

17
00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 4: out the field. It helps if you're long off the tee,

18
00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,480
Speaker 4: but there's many fairways that are very narrow, and the

19
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,440
Speaker 4: rough is going to start at three inch, but it's

20
00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,600
Speaker 4: going to be increasingly difficult to deal with as the

21
00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,039
Speaker 4: week goes on. In totality, this is a course that

22
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 4: I think is offering just on the verge of a

23
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 4: major in terms of its overall quality and difficulty. So

24
00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,400
Speaker 4: at this time in the year, you can see some

25
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,880
Speaker 4: tournaments where you know, the winning score is up there

26
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 4: in the high twenties under par.

27
00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 3: This is one.

28
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,080
Speaker 4: It's a bit more survival, but enough for me. Let's

29
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,280
Speaker 4: bring Spencer and Kyle into the fall to speak specifically

30
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,160
Speaker 4: about head to head matchups in the Arlold Palmer Invitational,

31
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,560
Speaker 4: as well as they're outright winter placement bets, anything else

32
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:30,600
Speaker 4: that they're hot on coming into the weekend. Spencer, let's

33
00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,080
Speaker 4: start with you first. What's your thought on this course

34
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,399
Speaker 4: and potentially the obstacles is going to put in the

35
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 4: way of this field and some of the golfers that

36
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:40,840
Speaker 4: are just in a better position to compete at the

37
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,240
Speaker 4: very top of the leaderboard.

38
00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:43,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think you said it at the

39
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 1: beginning when you just look at the dominance that Tiger

40
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,920
Speaker 1: Woods has seen on this course, if you it's not

41
00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,680
Speaker 1: just the tiger Woods answer like Bail has one of

42
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 1: the highest rollover predictability rate between seasons that you get

43
00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,000
Speaker 1: on tour. The funny part about that is is that's

44
00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,600
Speaker 1: not exactly the narrative that you might expect from a

45
00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,720
Speaker 1: venue that when you dive deeper into the stats, it's

46
00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,919
Speaker 1: generated this various strokes gain interpolation. Over the last five

47
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,760
Speaker 1: to ten years, we've seen approach play around the green

48
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,359
Speaker 1: production off the t acumen. All of those have taken

49
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,760
Speaker 1: precedence for holding the highest degree of success in any

50
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,679
Speaker 1: of those individual iterations of the contests that you may

51
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,160
Speaker 1: look into. I think any time that the fact that

52
00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,200
Speaker 1: putting isn't the loan answer that is going to be

53
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,280
Speaker 1: said of what you need, and it's actually the loan

54
00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,919
Speaker 1: answer here of what I did not talk about, maybe

55
00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,680
Speaker 1: better helps define that unpredictable putting return. It merges this

56
00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,800
Speaker 1: course into something more sustainable from a yearly perspective. However,

57
00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,480
Speaker 1: this is a venue where I wrote this in an

58
00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,080
Speaker 1: article this week. You can't really fake it until you

59
00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 1: make it. All four strokes gain metrics are vital. It's

60
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,040
Speaker 1: one of the reasons that in event correlations produce a

61
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,800
Speaker 1: steady distribution across the board, and it generally heightens quality

62
00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,320
Speaker 1: play at a higher rate than most stops on tour. Essentially,

63
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,959
Speaker 1: the the simplified version of that would be good golfers

64
00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,840
Speaker 1: across the bag tend to separate themselves from the pack

65
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 1: at a dispersion rate. That shows why this course highlights

66
00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,520
Speaker 1: the best players in the world, especially from a tee

67
00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 1: to green perspective.

68
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 3: I think one of the reasons.

69
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,160
Speaker 1: For that, Michael, is you're looking at a venue here

70
00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,600
Speaker 1: that's four hundred and sixty six yards. It's this very

71
00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 1: difficult scoring test that you talked about, features eighty five

72
00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 1: sand traps, nine holes with water, the rough that you

73
00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 1: talked about that's only going to get more lush and

74
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 1: brutal throughout the week, and then you get these fiery,

75
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,639
Speaker 1: fast Bermuda greens that make it nearly impossible to stop

76
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 1: your ball if you're trying to approach from anything other

77
00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,920
Speaker 1: than the fairway. It's not to say that quality production

78
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 1: can't still be found. You look at the four par

79
00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,080
Speaker 1: five locations, there's three sub four hundred yard par four holes.

80
00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,480
Speaker 1: When you remove those seven though from the mix, the

81
00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 1: eleven other holes is where this difficulty comes into play.

82
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 1: So you're going to have somewhere between a five percent

83
00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,360
Speaker 1: to an eighteen percent higher rate of golfers on those

84
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,840
Speaker 1: eleven lokes either making bogie or worse than they do

85
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,480
Speaker 1: in generating a birdier better.

86
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:05,960
Speaker 3: So for me when I.

87
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: Built my model this week, there's a lot of different

88
00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: ways that we can break this down. I think you know,

89
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,600
Speaker 1: mid to long iron play is important, total driving is important,

90
00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:16,679
Speaker 1: the ability to scramble is important.

91
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,680
Speaker 3: But for me, it's an all around game.

92
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,880
Speaker 1: Sometimes that does limit some of the metrics, since it

93
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,040
Speaker 1: opens up the playing field for more players to find

94
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 1: upside when we're saying, you got to be good at everything,

95
00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,320
Speaker 1: but if you're good at anything, you at least have

96
00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,800
Speaker 1: a chance to hold on for a second. But for me,

97
00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,400
Speaker 1: this is good golfers that grade well in various aspects.

98
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,159
Speaker 1: That's what I tried to highlight this week.

99
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,800
Speaker 4: Now as I kick it over you, Kyle, the last

100
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,159
Speaker 4: thing that Spencer said I think bears repeating, which is

101
00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,240
Speaker 4: he kind of needs to be good at everything to

102
00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,280
Speaker 4: dominate this course. You can be long off the tee,

103
00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,120
Speaker 4: but by no means a bomber's paradise. You have to

104
00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,680
Speaker 4: be accurate with your approach shots, and obviously you know

105
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,560
Speaker 4: from a putting perspective, you're not going to win any

106
00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,480
Speaker 4: tournament let alone. One is challenging is this If you're

107
00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,120
Speaker 4: not locked in and avoid those you know, doubles throughout

108
00:04:58,160 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 4: the course of the rounds and the course of the

109
00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,440
Speaker 4: week kends. Where do you come down to though, to

110
00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,719
Speaker 4: to like first attack the course, and by attacking it,

111
00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,880
Speaker 4: I mean pulling out some golfers that you feel like

112
00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,479
Speaker 4: either are playing you know and rising in terms of

113
00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,120
Speaker 4: their overall play heading into this, but also just their

114
00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,320
Speaker 4: game kind of fits this course and what's thrown at them.

115
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:19,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you guys have both, you know, broke

116
00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,120
Speaker 5: it down accillainly so far. I think, especially you know

117
00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 5: Spencer talking about the overall aspect of viewing just overall

118
00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,400
Speaker 5: total strokes game play. I think this is a course

119
00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,279
Speaker 5: that you know, we talked about a lot last year. Obviously,

120
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,240
Speaker 5: we did the Major podcast a lot last year, and

121
00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 5: this is sort of a similar course. I know you

122
00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 5: guys mentioned that as well, But I do think it's

123
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:38,720
Speaker 5: a spot where we're going to see a lot of

124
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,880
Speaker 5: these all around elite te de green players really kind

125
00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:43,720
Speaker 5: of rise to the top. Over the last two years,

126
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 5: we've seen Bayhill really trend more towards a course that

127
00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:47,359
Speaker 5: favors accuracy.

128
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:48,280
Speaker 6: I think a lot of.

129
00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 5: That is due to the trouble that you see not

130
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,640
Speaker 5: only with penalties, but just this thick rough and the

131
00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,880
Speaker 5: detail that they're putting into the importance off the tee

132
00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,279
Speaker 5: rather than taking out some of the ability to just

133
00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:00,800
Speaker 5: completely bomb the ball away. So I think that's going

134
00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,320
Speaker 5: to you know, no further impact, you know, allowing us

135
00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 5: to kind of factor in more tea green play from

136
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,960
Speaker 5: the start to finish here for all these top end

137
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,320
Speaker 5: golfers here, but tricky course. I will certainly give these

138
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,159
Speaker 5: guys trouble at times. But again for me this in

139
00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,039
Speaker 5: this week's model, I'm definitely factoring an accuracy not only

140
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,320
Speaker 5: off the tee but with some of these approach plays

141
00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 5: as well.

142
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:22,760
Speaker 6: Obviously, Spencer mentioned the mid to long.

143
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,559
Speaker 5: Irons being more important this this uh in this course

144
00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 5: compared to others. But that's certainly spot where I think

145
00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:32,760
Speaker 5: it allows us to influence more so these high variance putters.

146
00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,320
Speaker 5: Obviously we saw a couple of years back with Kurt Kadiyama,

147
00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,200
Speaker 5: someone who is fits that mold to a tea, right,

148
00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:39,880
Speaker 5: a guy who can fall strip with the best of

149
00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,279
Speaker 5: them and then see his week sort of you know,

150
00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,880
Speaker 5: blown away by some bad putting or obviously when he

151
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,400
Speaker 5: won this event three years ago, some good putting so

152
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,000
Speaker 5: I think that is these are kind of terms that

153
00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,320
Speaker 5: I actually like the most where we can really lean

154
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 5: into these modelings with these elite ball striking guys who

155
00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,599
Speaker 5: tend to have these high variant putters, because again, variance

156
00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 5: isn't also always bad here for putting. Obviously you're going

157
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,160
Speaker 5: to see some very bad weeks for some of these

158
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,680
Speaker 5: high variance potters, but variants can work in.

159
00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,760
Speaker 6: A positive way as well. That's something that I'm really

160
00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 6: leaning in on this week.

161
00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:09,840
Speaker 4: Let's stick with you, Kyle here for a first bet

162
00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 4: of the episode, looking at the head to head market

163
00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,600
Speaker 4: between Russell Henley and Jake Knapp. Who do you like

164
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,600
Speaker 4: in this one and what is your price point cutoff?

165
00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm taking Henley here over Nap. Obviously, Jake NAP's

166
00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,600
Speaker 5: been someone who's played really well over the course of

167
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,320
Speaker 5: the last couple of weeks since the you know, the

168
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 5: turnover on the new season. But that's only the guy

169
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,600
Speaker 5: who I think just gets a bit of an upgrade

170
00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:31,240
Speaker 5: here in my model. Actual he actually graides out as

171
00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,640
Speaker 5: the second best golfer in my model this week, obviously

172
00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:36,800
Speaker 5: behind the one and only Scotti Shuffler, but it's a

173
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,040
Speaker 5: really good grade for Ross only. I think obviously it's

174
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,000
Speaker 5: not too much of a surprise considering he did win

175
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 5: this event last year, but I do think that the

176
00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,280
Speaker 5: public has kind of cooled off on him, the betting

177
00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,240
Speaker 5: markets have kind of cooled off on him a bit.

178
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:47,679
Speaker 6: Obviously.

179
00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 5: Last year he topped in around you know, top five

180
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,320
Speaker 5: in terms of the world golf rankings, and I think

181
00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 5: that sort of steam has sort of cooled off here

182
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,920
Speaker 5: on Henley and now to get him, you know, right

183
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 5: around minus one fifteen, minus one eighteen on this matchup

184
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 5: here against the guy like Jake Nap, who, while he

185
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,360
Speaker 5: has been good and we've seen him be really good

186
00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,920
Speaker 5: in stretches of his short career so far the season,

187
00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,640
Speaker 5: we've also seen him have some pretty poor stretches as well.

188
00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,160
Speaker 5: He's a pretty unreliable golf in terms of this sample

189
00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 5: that we have on him.

190
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,400
Speaker 6: Henny I feel a little bit better about.

191
00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 5: So while this isn't necessarily a bet against Jake Knapp,

192
00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,440
Speaker 5: it's more so a bet against the reliability of the

193
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,960
Speaker 5: two samples compared to Russ Henley versus Jake Nap and

194
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,960
Speaker 5: also just you know, banking on Henley, I think he's

195
00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,560
Speaker 5: one of the best fits in this field for this

196
00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:34,080
Speaker 5: particular course, where I think accuracy's really going to dominate here. Obviously,

197
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:35,840
Speaker 5: Jake Napp is a guy who can certainly vombit with

198
00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,120
Speaker 5: the best of them, but struggle with accuracy at times.

199
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:40,520
Speaker 5: I think that could sort of get him into some trouble.

200
00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,199
Speaker 5: I think Henley's going to be a guy who kind

201
00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 5: of excels in those categories.

202
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:45,200
Speaker 6: So I like Henley Overnapp.

203
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,800
Speaker 4: This week, all right, Spencer, let's talk about Chris Goddter

204
00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,400
Speaker 4: up minus one twenty five in the market over Justin

205
00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 4: Thomas and for casuals coming in looking to get some

206
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,200
Speaker 4: action for the first time this season. Maybe not a

207
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,360
Speaker 4: name that they have a lot of file footage in

208
00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 4: their head on. Talk me through what brings to the

209
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 4: table and why he's priced in such a way over

210
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,640
Speaker 4: a known quantity like Justin Thomas.

211
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a couple of reasons behind this.

212
00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 1: It's an interesting matchup, and you can kind of see

213
00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,640
Speaker 1: both of these names around the space, which we'll talk about.

214
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,160
Speaker 1: I guess I would call it market volatility mixed with

215
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 1: common opponents, mixed with what you're getting in the space.

216
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,199
Speaker 1: So I normally don't try to take on this much

217
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,320
Speaker 1: volatility in a matchup wager. When you look at this

218
00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 1: bet specifically, you have justin Thomas's back. This is his

219
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,800
Speaker 1: first start that he's going to be making on tour

220
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,439
Speaker 1: after having surgery during the offseason November. You combine that

221
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,360
Speaker 1: with gotterr Up's recent downturn. This is a golfer that

222
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,760
Speaker 1: one to two tournaments to start the year has seemed

223
00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,640
Speaker 1: to go in the wrong direction the past couple weeks.

224
00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 3: And that's where this.

225
00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,440
Speaker 1: Picture is painted of this market uncertainty, And like I

226
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,080
Speaker 1: just talked about, you don't have to look any further

227
00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,520
Speaker 1: than how both of these players are spread across the

228
00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:57,840
Speaker 1: map and the matchups that you're getting. The one thing

229
00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,000
Speaker 1: I will say that if you do look at opponents, well,

230
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,040
Speaker 1: well got her up is probably pretty square in a

231
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,840
Speaker 1: lot of these spots he does feature the better opponents.

232
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:06,839
Speaker 1: Thomas on the reverse end of it, I don't think

233
00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,000
Speaker 1: books really know what.

234
00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 3: To do with him.

235
00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,080
Speaker 1: Some of the sharper locations in the market will have

236
00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:13,920
Speaker 1: him against the very bottom of the board at like

237
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,559
Speaker 1: minus two hundred, and then we'll flip it around against

238
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,280
Speaker 1: the guy like JJ Spond where they have him as

239
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,760
Speaker 1: a dog so you know, it's one of those things

240
00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 1: where you have to be willing to take on the

241
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:28,720
Speaker 1: exposure and the volatility of this for me, and we're

242
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,679
Speaker 1: gonna do a lot of shows, I'm hoping this year,

243
00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 1: and we'll be able to talk about matchups, because at

244
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,280
Speaker 1: the end of the day, that's always going to be

245
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,880
Speaker 1: my bread and butter. Most of the times, I am

246
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,440
Speaker 1: looking to take on golfers that have really low floors,

247
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:42,880
Speaker 1: golfers that I'm going to be able to take on

248
00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,000
Speaker 1: in a cut situation, names that I am hoping that

249
00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 1: I can get a win before the weekend. And well,

250
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:49,920
Speaker 1: you do have a cut this week. It's a very

251
00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 1: fringe cut top fifty and ties within ten strokes of

252
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 1: the lead.

253
00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,280
Speaker 3: It's a seventy two man field here.

254
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,440
Speaker 1: So typically in these tournaments, I try to shoot for

255
00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,199
Speaker 1: a little bit more upside on the golfers that I'm

256
00:10:59,200 --> 00:10:59,920
Speaker 1: actually backing.

257
00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,600
Speaker 3: And that's for me when I broke down my statistical.

258
00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 1: Model of gott her up, where you got a lot

259
00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,120
Speaker 1: of these high end returns that I was trying to

260
00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,480
Speaker 1: find despite this thirty seventh and miscut that we've gotten

261
00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,800
Speaker 1: from him in his past two starts. So look at

262
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:14,680
Speaker 1: the reasons why we've gotten a thirty seventh and a

263
00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,319
Speaker 1: miscut negative five point five strokes gain in six total

264
00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,000
Speaker 1: rounds with the putter. Kyle's talked about it already, of

265
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,960
Speaker 1: these hit and misguise with the putter. A name like

266
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,360
Speaker 1: k Kittiama, where the putter usually derails him, was able

267
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:29,640
Speaker 1: to find success at this course in his first go around.

268
00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,160
Speaker 1: It's gonna be gotterr Up's first chance on this course.

269
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,560
Speaker 1: Predictability at this venue something to always keep in mind.

270
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,720
Speaker 1: But I always like that when you get these shifts

271
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,679
Speaker 1: away from POA greens that can be extremely volatile, and

272
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 1: you put a name like gott her Up back on

273
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,000
Speaker 1: a surface that he has shown to already find success

274
00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,800
Speaker 1: on this year. And I think the second reason why

275
00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,360
Speaker 1: this got her Up profile looks really good is when

276
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,680
Speaker 1: you dive deeper into the data, it's these difficult driving tests.

277
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,240
Speaker 1: It's these venues where wind comes into play that's been

278
00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,720
Speaker 1: the Gotterrup special over and over again. You don't have

279
00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 1: to think any further than the Genesis Scottish Open last year,

280
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,640
Speaker 1: which was really his first breakout on tour of what

281
00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,120
Speaker 1: we saw from this high end result.

282
00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna bet on that upside here, you know, I.

283
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 1: Think that there is a little bit more volatility because

284
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 1: we don't really know where Justin Thomas is with his game.

285
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,200
Speaker 3: He has been a fine course fit here.

286
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,240
Speaker 1: In the past, but this is one of those spots

287
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:27,400
Speaker 1: where there is the unquantifiable narrative of I had proper

288
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty seven. So two points of value

289
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,320
Speaker 1: is not necessarily where I'm running to go make a bet.

290
00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,839
Speaker 1: But I think when you add some of these qualifiers

291
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 1: into the mix that this is Thomas's first start. It

292
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,560
Speaker 1: is a venue, as you've talked about, Michael, that is

293
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,679
Speaker 1: going to be difficult. I don't know if this is

294
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,320
Speaker 1: the best start for what Justin Thomas is and even

295
00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 1: if he does get himself into the weekend, I think

296
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,680
Speaker 1: god her Up has a really high ceiling for this tournament.

297
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,960
Speaker 4: Before we head on to more talk from the Arnold

298
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,520
Speaker 4: Palmer Invitational, don't miss out on any of our best

299
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,680
Speaker 4: bets by signing up for Action Pro right now. Action

300
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,880
Speaker 4: Pro allows real time alerts as soon as experts like

301
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,680
Speaker 4: Spencer and Kyle track picks in the app, which is

302
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,720
Speaker 4: critical because you want the best bets, but you also

303
00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 4: want them at the best prices. You'll get real time

304
00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,320
Speaker 4: money percentages to see where the smart money is flowing,

305
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,240
Speaker 4: and access to player prop projections powered by Sean Kerner

306
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,600
Speaker 4: and doctor Nick Giffen across multiple sports with plenty of

307
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 4: PGA tournaments on the horizon, plus March Madness Major League

308
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,960
Speaker 4: Baseball starting soon. Now is a great time to sign up.

309
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:24,800
Speaker 4: Right now, you can get twenty dollars off an annual

310
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,680
Speaker 4: subscription of Action Pro. Just go to actionetwork dot com

311
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,959
Speaker 4: slash pro and use promo code Pod twenty to get started.

312
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 4: That's promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off at

313
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,959
Speaker 4: actionnetwork dot com slash Pro. Before we get to the

314
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,760
Speaker 4: rest of the show, let's toss over to Chris Raybond

315
00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 4: for a quick word from our sponsor, Draft Games.

316
00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,400
Speaker 7: The Action Network podcast is teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook,

317
00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 7: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two

318
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 7: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins,

319
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,319
Speaker 7: stay in on the action and use your bonus bets

320
00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,680
Speaker 7: on Draftkings's same game parlays for a shot at an

321
00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,440
Speaker 7: even bigger payout. To get started, use promo code Action

322
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,280
Speaker 7: Network signing up with DraftKings again. You got Action Network

323
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 7: when signing up at five bucks to get two hundred

324
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,960
Speaker 7: back in bonus bets if your bet wins, the crown

325
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:10,079
Speaker 7: is yours.

326
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 4: All right, gentlemen, let's get into some placement wagers. And

327
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,439
Speaker 4: I know that Spencer just went, but I'm going to

328
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,520
Speaker 4: have him cut the line again because my favorite golfer

329
00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,960
Speaker 4: in this tournament, you know, coming in as a casual

330
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,840
Speaker 4: looking at some of the stats, you know, watching the overview,

331
00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,680
Speaker 4: the course view with the drone of everything that they're

332
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:29,440
Speaker 4: going to be facing at Bayhill. Matthew Fitzpatrick jumped out

333
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 4: to me, and you like him in the top five

334
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,360
Speaker 4: at plus five point fifty. Talk me through why you

335
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,760
Speaker 4: preferred this as opposed to an outright winner. From a

336
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,600
Speaker 4: money management perspective, I think this is useful to get

337
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,120
Speaker 4: into your head a little bit for someone who may

338
00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,200
Speaker 4: be a casual better coming out of a tournament like

339
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:44,000
Speaker 4: this for the first time.

340
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 1: It's a funny question to ask Michael because I'm probably

341
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 1: going to go in one of the more casual routes

342
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 1: on my outright card in a second here and we'll

343
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 1: we'll talk about the Scotti Scheffler dilemma that comes into

344
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,520
Speaker 1: the mix. There were two players for me in my

345
00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,640
Speaker 1: model that had a much higher expectation in the season

346
00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 1: than in years past. When looking at the top of

347
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,240
Speaker 1: the board, I always like to go back and see

348
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,160
Speaker 1: what a proper outright number would have been on these

349
00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 1: players in future and or I should say past year.

350
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 1: Sorry for that, but one is Matthew Fitzpatrick. The second

351
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 1: one is Seawu Kim. I'm also fine considering Kim at

352
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,280
Speaker 1: plus six fifty for the same wager inside the top five.

353
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,240
Speaker 1: There are matchups that we'll get to throughout the show

354
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 1: where I like both of them in those two areas.

355
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 1: But for me, it came down to the Fitzpatrick profile

356
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: that when I tried to look at expected strokes gain

357
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 1: total for Bayhill number one, Scotti Scheffler, number two, Rory McElroy,

358
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:38,960
Speaker 1: number three, Tommy Fleetwood.

359
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 3: Those are the three favorites on the board.

360
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 1: Number four was Matthew Fitzpatrick, And you talked about it

361
00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 1: a second ago. When we're talking about closing line value.

362
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 1: Closing line value is one of the most important things

363
00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,160
Speaker 1: in the space. Like you know, I used to go

364
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 1: on podcasts and write in articles about we beat a

365
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 1: line by forty points, we beat aligned by fifty points,

366
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 1: and the bet didn't get across the finish line. And

367
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 1: that's like a very easy thing for people to try

368
00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: to pick holes into the profile of what that means.

369
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, if you are

370
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 1: getting the best of the number and the market is

371
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 1: agreeing with you in the way that these numbers are moving,

372
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 1: it is very advantageous from a long term perspective. For one,

373
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 1: there's less risk that can come into play. For two,

374
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 1: there's a higher win rate even if you keep the

375
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 1: same risk that you have on it. So you know,

376
00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 1: I think for a name like Matthew Fitzpatrick, we have

377
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 1: seen the market at this point steadily pushed in his favor,

378
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 1: whether it's in the outright market, whether it's as a

379
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 1: placement bet, whether it's as a head to head wager,

380
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 1: and a lot of that's going to come down to

381
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,480
Speaker 1: this is a profile right now with Fitzpatrick where the

382
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 1: tee to green acumen that Kyle talked about where you

383
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 1: need to be a good tee to green golfer is

384
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 1: surging up the board for him. And really the one

385
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 1: negative quality that he's produced is with the putter this year.

386
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,280
Speaker 1: He hasn't gained in any of his starts so far.

387
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 1: But if you start to extrapolate out the data and

388
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,000
Speaker 1: you look at this more from a Bermuda fit from

389
00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: a long term standpoint, Fitzpatrick's a really good putter, like

390
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 1: he's fifth in my mind and strokes gain putting on

391
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 1: hard Bermuda, he's fourth on similar fast greens. If there

392
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 1: is a reason to believe that there is a spike

393
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 1: potential in the profile for what we're getting from a

394
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 1: tee to green perspective, at this point, I think the

395
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 1: ceiling for him is a little bit higher than at

396
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:16,919
Speaker 1: least the market initially thought.

397
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 3: And there are still pass that you.

398
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,879
Speaker 1: Can try to take advantage of this, like one of

399
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 1: those ways that I went about it, if you want,

400
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 1: just like a secondary wager is Matthew Fitzpatrick against Hideki

401
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 1: Matsuyama this week. There are a lot of ways to

402
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 1: try to get exposure to a board, and that's kind

403
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,880
Speaker 1: of when I'm trying to build out my overall portfolio

404
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 1: for a card. I'm finding golfers that I want to back,

405
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 1: and in the same breath, I'm trying to find golfers

406
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:42,879
Speaker 1: that I want to fade for matchups and things of

407
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 1: that nature. And for me personally, Fitzpatrick chucks, as you said, Michael,

408
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,439
Speaker 1: like all the boxes that you want to see for

409
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 1: this course. So one of my favorite players on the

410
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 1: board didn't get there in the outright market because of

411
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 1: the very straightforward approach I took at the top. But

412
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: I think Fitzpatrick is a really, really steadied, nice course

413
00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 1: fit here for.

414
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 4: Your placement, wager, Kyle, you're looking at Victor hovelin top

415
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,920
Speaker 4: ten a little bit better than seventy two plus three

416
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 4: sixty over at DraftKings. You want to race there because

417
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 4: I have a feeling this number may shrink a little

418
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,600
Speaker 4: bit by the time he teas off. What are your

419
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 4: thoughts on the market movement and why he's a better

420
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,640
Speaker 4: bet at ten, you know, to be cracking the top

421
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 4: ten as opposed to winning this.

422
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 6: Thing out right.

423
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think in terms of comparing the

424
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 5: top ten idea compared to the outright, I think I

425
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 5: do have some concerns about his overall you know, volatility

426
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 5: in terms of just finishing termaments and whatnot. But I

427
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 5: do think that there's a lot of things within Victor

428
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 5: Hobbins's profile that looks really really solid here in this

429
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 5: particular course at bay Hill.

430
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 6: You know, over the past few years, I.

431
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 5: Think it's very easy to look at the traditional stroke

432
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 5: scin numbers, but recently, over the past two or three

433
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 5: months or so, I've been diving into how to adjust

434
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,439
Speaker 5: some of these strokes skain numbers to actually fit and

435
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,440
Speaker 5: more so player's recent form as well as their course fit.

436
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 5: And Victor hobbinsoner just jumped off the page here in

437
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 5: terms of why he might be a better course fit

438
00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 5: here compared to other spots, but primarily looking at how

439
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 5: he fits on the off the tee approach here. He's

440
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 5: more accurate than you know, the majority of the field.

441
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 5: I think he's in the top fourteen over the past

442
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 5: six months in strokes gain sorry and driving accuracy. Not

443
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 5: necessarily a long time bomber here, but he is a

444
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 5: guy who's going to get the job done in terms

445
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 5: of finding fairways putting himself in a good spot for

446
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 5: these approach where we know he will continue to thrive.

447
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,159
Speaker 5: He's been a top seven player on approach over the

448
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 5: last six months in this field, so he's gonna be

449
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 5: able to put himself into some of these good spots.

450
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 6: In another volatile putter here.

451
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 5: I've talked enough about some of the volatility spots within

452
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 5: the putting game, but I think a lot of the

453
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,439
Speaker 5: overall thesis behind why I'm looking at some of these

454
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 5: kinds of players is I do think that putting is

455
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 5: going to be a lot of conducive to shofskin approach

456
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 5: and putting yourself in a good spot from those approach shots.

457
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 5: And I think that's the spot where Vitja Hoblin jumps

458
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 5: off the page. He grades out really well. So have

459
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 5: him as a top seven course fit ball striker in

460
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 5: this field, and there's gonna be some volatility there with

461
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 5: the putting, potentially some of the distance numbers, but again

462
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 5: with such an emphasis on approach and accuracy. Hobbins guy

463
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 5: who jumps off the page here, so at plus three

464
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 5: sixty over on draftings, allek him for a top ten.

465
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 4: Let's stick with you here, Kyle for the outright, because

466
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 4: Spencer's going to defend a very short number for Scotti Scheffler,

467
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 4: and there's lots of ways to do that. But it's

468
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 4: more fun to talk about some long shots north of

469
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 4: twenty to one and you're bringing.

470
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 6: Not one, but two to the table.

471
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, it is certainly, you know, terrifying looking at some

472
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 5: of these players when you have Scotti Scheffer at the

473
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 5: top of the board and you can't really necessarily knock

474
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 5: any of these options, you know, targeting Scotti Scheffler, but

475
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 5: because he does grade out far in a way as

476
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 5: the best player in every single model that I make,

477
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 5: but specifically this week as well. Obviously he's had a

478
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 5: lot of success at this course one two of these

479
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 5: last three events or two of the last four events

480
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,679
Speaker 5: here at the API, so tough to back into these

481
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 5: guys here. I do like to look at some of

482
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 5: these guys in the non Scotti Schfler markets or look

483
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 5: to find ways to maybe hedge some of the you know,

484
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 5: the Scottie Scheffer numbers there, maybe looking at him in

485
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 5: the top five all so back in these guys in

486
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 5: the outright markets to maybe find yourself in a little

487
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,479
Speaker 5: bit of a middle spot as well. For the two

488
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 5: guys that I'm looking at in the outright categories are

489
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 5: Kalu Morikawa and Russell Henley Markala there at twenty seven

490
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 5: to one, obviously coming off of the win at the Genesis,

491
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 5: and I've talked a lot about accuracy and the putting volatility,

492
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 5: and people who have been following along so far on

493
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 5: the show, the first person that might have come to

494
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 5: their mind with thinking of that kind of profile is

495
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 5: Klin Marikawa. Obviously, we know that he can certainly go

496
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 5: cold with the putter. He can certainly get hot as

497
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 5: well as we saw at the Genesis, But in terms

498
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 5: of his approach play and is off the tee play,

499
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 5: he lines up exactly what I'm looking for in a

500
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 5: player this week. Obviously he's going to be guy who's

501
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 5: gonna be able to hit a lot of fairways, not

502
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 5: necessarily be someone who's going to find advantages with the

503
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 5: distance off the tee, So I think that actually fits

504
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 5: his his strategy here at bay Hill and then stroke

505
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 5: skin out approach. We know that he's going to set

506
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 5: himself up to find some birding opportunities.

507
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 6: Inverting them can also be a treaty stop.

508
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 5: But like I mentioned, I do think there's gonna be

509
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 5: a lot of low scoring potential in this tournament. Last

510
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 5: year also, Henley won this event at eleven under, so

511
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 5: I don't think that this is going to necessarily be

512
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 5: a sportware. We're seeing a ton of putts Fall think

513
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 5: that also fits the bill for column orkw type week,

514
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 5: And I do think that there's maybe a spot where

515
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 5: people are a little bit off of him coming off

516
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 5: of the win. We know that, you know, people like

517
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 5: to kind of fade that sort of environment. But looking

518
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 5: at him at twenty seven to one, I do like

519
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 5: him quite a bit here to win once again, and

520
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 5: then Russell Henley talked about him quite a bit in

521
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 5: the matchup market there, but thirty five to one, I

522
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 5: mean this is again a spot where I think the

523
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 5: market is just cooled off on him a bit too

524
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 5: much to be outside the top five in the outright market.

525
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 5: I think it's just a bit of a mistake, a

526
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 5: little bit of a pricing error there. So, like I mentioned,

527
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 5: your grades out as the second best golfer in the

528
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 5: in this field for me and my model, more Cow

529
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 5: is there at fourth, So I like both the Zummers.

530
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 5: If you're just taking one of these guys, I would

531
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 5: prefer Henley slightly, just Beau. I think there's a little

532
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 5: bit more value at that thirty five to one number.

533
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 5: But like both these guys here this week at Bahill.

534
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: Just a quick question from a strategic bankroll perspective, if

535
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 4: you entered this tournament and you only had two outrights

536
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 4: and they both were north of twenty to one, how

537
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 4: much would you put aside for live betting throughout the tournament? Potentially,

538
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 4: you know, if they both get off to a hot

539
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 4: start and you want to protect that investment a little

540
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: bit by hedging and investing in some of the other golfers.

541
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 4: Is that something you think strategically ahead of time about

542
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 4: where's the kind of more of a fluid thing throughout

543
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 4: the entire season where you're thinking about your bank roll

544
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 4: and its totality.

545
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's certainly fluid, I think specifically. I mean, I

546
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 5: know it's different for everybody and their account status and whatnot.

547
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 5: But right now there's a lot of spots where we're

548
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 5: offering we're getting offers on bonus bets or a profit

549
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 5: boost throughout the weekend. So that's something that I've been

550
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 5: using to take advantage of in the live markets. So

551
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 5: it's certainly not going to be a spot where I'm

552
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 5: looking to live bet every single week, but definitely it's

553
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 5: a fluid situation that is certainly worth monitoring, especially if

554
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 5: you can, you know, take advantage of those profit boosts,

555
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 5: because again, just getting any extra value is also worth it.

556
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 5: So if that's a spot where you can take advantage

557
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 5: of that, certainly do so. But yeah, when you're looking

558
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 5: for you guys who are I guess in the mid

559
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 5: tier of longer shots, I suppose, especially when you're fading

560
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,959
Speaker 5: some of these top end guys, it's certainly worth having.

561
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 5: But it's also noting that there's probably not gonna be

562
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 5: a lot of times where you can catch up on

563
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 5: some of these shorter odds guys unless you're looking to,

564
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 5: you know, back Scotty Scheffler after maybe a bad Thursday Friday,

565
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 5: which has been the case pretty frequently so far the season,

566
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 5: where he's had a bad first round or two, and

567
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 5: he obviously comes back throughout the weekend. But that's probably

568
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 5: the one scenario where I'm looking to maybe put you know,

569
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 5: double down or put money on some of these shorter

570
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 5: odds guys. But for the most part, is certainly a

571
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 5: fluid situation.

572
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 4: I would say, Spencer, let's piggyback on that last point

573
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 4: that Kyle just made, which is if there was a

574
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 4: slow start and Scotty finds himself six or seven shots back,

575
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 4: you know, midway through the round on Friday. How much

576
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 4: can we expect this line to move, you know, his

577
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 4: odds to win out right on the live market, because

578
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 4: you know, in some sports you can see wild movements

579
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 4: and an overreaction by the public. It seems as though

580
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 4: the sportsbooks are not taking the bait when it comes

581
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 4: to Scotty. So, yes, getting him at seven to two

582
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 4: before the tournament starts, that seems pretty short. But realistically,

583
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 4: how much could you see that increase without it being

584
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 4: a situation where he's absolutely imploding and clearly is drawing

585
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 4: dead from a winning out right perspective.

586
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, Michael, we've seen it the last couple

587
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: of weeks where he's nearly drawing dead in a lot

588
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 1: of terms, Like I understand, he's moved himself up the leaderboard.

589
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: The twelfth is the worst we've gotten. We've had a

590
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: couple of top fives that have entered the mixed from it.

591
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 1: But he's still ending Thursdays as either the favorite or

592
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 1: one of the favorites on the board by being ten

593
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: shots off the lead. So I've said this a million times,

594
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: which is a really funky answer that I'm gonna give

595
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 1: about Scotty Shuffler to begin with right now, books for

596
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 1: the most part, will never I shouldn't say never because

597
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: I'm taking Scotty here, but for the most part, will

598
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: never give you what a proper price is on Scotty,

599
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: whether that is before the tournament or it's it's during

600
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: the tournament. And I think a couple narratives have gone

601
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 1: in the reverse direction here for Scotty. Like I have

602
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: never done a podcast. It doesn't mean it's gonna be correct.

603
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that this take doesn't end up with

604
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: egg on my face on it. But I've never come

605
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: on a podcast, I've never written article. I've never taken

606
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 1: somebody that's less than four to one to win golf tournament.

607
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: There is way too much volatility in golf to want

608
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 1: to go down this path. And when you look specifically

609
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 1: at a course here where there is nine holes with

610
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: water and it's a difficult scoring venue, it's there's volatility

611
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: that's just going to naturally come into play at a

612
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 1: venue like this. There are so many anti Scheffler takes

613
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: that have formed in the market this week.

614
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 3: I've seen Rory is a better play at the price, which.

615
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: By the way, I think Rory is Rory and Scheffler

616
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 1: are by far and away, Like there's thirty seven percent

617
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 1: win equity in my model between those two, which is

618
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: substantially more than what you're going to get from the market.

619
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: A lot of that comes from the Scotty Scheffler return,

620
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: which is why I'm going down this route right now.

621
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 1: We've heard a million times about Scotty's irons and how

622
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: they're failing him this year. I think all of those

623
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: points are fair to at least discuss. I want everybody

624
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: to look from a grander picture of this though every

625
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,479
Speaker 1: single weekend, and I could give you all the reasons

626
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: why as a whole I do not like the without

627
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: Scotty market. I think from a math perspective, you're kind

628
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: of walking yourself into a really big problem when you

629
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: try to go that route. But even if you look

630
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: at the without market this week, people are just willing

631
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: to take Scotty on. I'm not seeing as many cards

632
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 1: posted where it's you know, this player or that player

633
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: without Scotty in the mix. It's just look, Scotty's iron

634
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: play's bad. He's not playing as a three and a

635
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: half to one golfer. Let's try to oppose him here

636
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 1: because there's value on this board when we dive a

637
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: little bit deeper into the numbers. Sure, there have been

638
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: three consecutive poor first round starts. The approach metrics that

639
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: I talked about are a little bit worrisome. Even if

640
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: we get rid of round one. There I can dive

641
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: into my model. We can look into these numbers. The

642
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: round one stats are tanking this to where he's becoming

643
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: ten strokes down to lead very quickly into these tournaments.

644
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 3: But even if you just look from rounds two.

645
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: To four, the iron play, yes, is not as sharp

646
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: as we have seen in past years.

647
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 3: Of this nine to eleven. Though he has gained, he

648
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 3: is gaining.

649
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: About zero point six shots per round over rounds two

650
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: to four. That is going to be about a half

651
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: shot less than his baseline. And if you're using the

652
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: argument that Rory is popping in all of the approach

653
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 1: metrics right now for the reason that you like him,

654
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: Like I said, I understand why people would like Rory

655
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 1: this week. I understand why people are gravitating towards wanting

656
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: to play Matthew Fitzpatrick. I understand Kyle's reason for liking

657
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: Russell Henley. I Russell Henley was one of my outrights

658
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: last year. I got very fortunate to hit that wager

659
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: with Morikawa making a mess at the end in Henley

660
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: getting very lucky to chip in. But like there are

661
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: a lot of good course fits that make sense here,

662
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 1: it's just for me when I run numbers, I look

663
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: at this as a spot where the market is telling

664
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: you that he has about a twenty two percent chance

665
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: to win based off of these plus three to fifty

666
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: totals that you can get give or taken.

667
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 3: You know, Kyle talked about this. It's at least something

668
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 3: that they're out there.

669
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: There's always ways and abilities to get boost to totals,

670
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: Like I think there's a way to get this Scottie

671
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: number higher than plus three to fifty at specific books,

672
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: if you shop around and if you have access to

673
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: something like that. But for me, I look from what

674
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: my true win equity percentage is for him, and I

675
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: have him closer to twenty six percent. I think we

676
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,479
Speaker 1: can have a discussion about the upfront risk dilemma how

677
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: much you actually want to bet into this market. I

678
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: am not somebody that tries to find a ton of

679
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: exposure in general in outright bets and for me, I'm

680
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: not going to bet to win a same standard amount.

681
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 1: I really have no interest in having one and a

682
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: half to two units on an outright bet. Like for me,

683
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: I'm looking to have a half unit to a maximum

684
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: unit depending on how I'm trying to diversify my portfolio

685
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: to begin with with this.

686
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 3: But it's always going to be one of those spots

687
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: where like.

688
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: I don't really want to be on a ten x

689
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: different so if I have a unit in exposure, I'm

690
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: trying to win around ten units.

691
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 3: Nothing is as concrete as that.

692
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, edges are going to

693
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: deviate from the script a little bit based off of that.

694
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: But I think one of the things that really rung

695
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: home for me as I was running this data is

696
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: I just talked about all the proximity numbers that are

697
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: a problem.

698
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 3: And I really like Kyle's answer that.

699
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: He talked about a little bit ago about building models

700
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: to fit a course narrative only versus only trying to

701
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: find that recent sample size returns.

702
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: Books like to overcorrect to form.

703
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: It's always going to be hard to find value when

704
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,959
Speaker 1: the books already know what someone is doing. You always

705
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: want to try to find somebody who might be able

706
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: to produce better than the recent form, and you use

707
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: some of those baseline statistics, and when I look at

708
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: the and six twenty twenty six stat only correlated answers

709
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: for Bayhill, he is still number one in my model.

710
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: And that's despite all of this proximity play that answers

711
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: the mix.

712
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: I have ten.

713
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 1: Categories this week that I weighed. He's number one in

714
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: all ten categories. I know Scotty is dominant. That is

715
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: not typically the answer when Rory McElroy is in the field,

716
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: and it has given me this take where it's twenty

717
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 1: six twenty seven percent of the win equity is going

718
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: to Scotty. I see about four percent edge here. I'm

719
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: going to take a bet on that. I'm gonna put

720
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: my risk there. Like I said, something I've never done

721
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: in the past before. I just think that the market

722
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: has moved way too far in the other direction in

723
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: the sentiment around him, and I think that the upside

724
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: from what we've seen in the past, like this is

725
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: a really nice course fit where rollover predictability is one

726
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: of the five highest on tour in Kyle's at the

727
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: beginning two of the last four years Scotty Scheffler is

728
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: the champion of this tournament. So not something that you

729
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 1: will probably ever hear me do again on the show,

730
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: but for a one week, one off situation, I'm gonna

731
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: take Scotty Scheffler.

732
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 4: All right, If Scotty's the shot, Let's get to some chasers here,

733
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: and luckily Kyle is bringing three more head to heads.

734
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 4: We can talk to some people that probably aren't going

735
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 4: to find themselves in the top five by Sunday, but

736
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 4: there's no reason why you can't make some money on

737
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 4: their backs.

738
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at Akshay Batya over Brian Harmon in

739
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 5: round one specifically, I was looking for some more ways

740
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 5: to fade Brian Harmon in the matchup market, but didn't

741
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 5: really find many props out yet four lines out yet

742
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 5: for him. I would just find around one match up

743
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 5: there against Oxhay, so I like that there. And then

744
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 5: looking at the guy who just had his heart broken

745
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 5: once again on Sunday, Shane Lowry over min w Lee.

746
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 5: Minually was another guy who uh grayed out as a

747
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 5: fade in my model. I mean again, I've talked about

748
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 5: accuracy being important here, approach play being important, and that's

749
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 5: some spots where we've.

750
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 6: Seen we really have spike weeks, but a week over week.

751
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 5: It's been a struggle for him at least in terms

752
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 5: of staying consistent in those categories. So I do like

753
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 5: Shane Lowry, who's had a lot of success over here,

754
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 5: and again another player who fits that mold well. I

755
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 5: also like see Kim over Hadeki, two players that Spencer's

756
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 5: talked about a bit as well.

757
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 6: Austin Fullerman in the.

758
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 5: Top twenty is another play that I have at plus

759
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 5: three sixty as.

760
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 4: Well, Spencer, what else do you bring into the table?

761
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 4: I know that you have one more outright you want

762
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 4: to discuss, but also if you had heads.

763
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I talked a little bit about Fitzpatrick over Hadecki.

764
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 3: The Sea Woo over Hadecki.

765
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 1: Route is certainly something to consider all so I like

766
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: both of those. I split my exposure up by going

767
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: Sea Woo over Cameron Young and.

768
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 3: Then the one play all throw out there.

769
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: I am pretty like I'm just doing a bunch of

770
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: things on the show that you'll never hear from me.

771
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: But I'm usually pretty anti in the without Scotty market,

772
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: I think with a Scotti Scheffler outright ticket it gives

773
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: me the ability to bet into this market probably a

774
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: little bit better than I normally would in spots, and

775
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: this would be without Rory also into the mix. I

776
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: really like Pierson Cooty this week. This feels like a

777
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: breakout spot for Pierson. Cooty leads the tour right now

778
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: with twenty nine consecutive rounds of shooting par or better.

779
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: He's inside of the top ten of almost every iteration

780
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 1: of my model of what I was trying to find

781
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 1: this week from overall upside and safety, the seventh expected

782
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: ball striker for me, the sixth expected weighted scorer. I

783
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: think this is a name where we've kind of seen

784
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: it in bits and pieces so far this year, like

785
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: the second at the Farmers sticks out the tenth at

786
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: the WM Phoenix, which in reality could have been even

787
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: better than that finish. I think we're about to see

788
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: really big things from Pierson Cooty in twenty twenty six.

789
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: And I'm in a bet a mat forty five to

790
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: one in without Scotty market and for me, the exact

791
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: if we can find it somewhere of Scotty and Coody.

792
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: Scotty over Coody would be a nice are you Caul

793
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 1: get a pretty juicy number.

794
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 3: If somebody's offering that out there.

795
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 4: I just put it out there, including Scotty. He's fifty

796
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 4: five to one out there in the market. So you

797
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 4: just get a feel for the differential between those two.

798
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 4: Find that over at DraftKings. All right, that'll do it

799
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 4: for today's episode. Thanks for joining us here on the

800
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast. Be sure to check out actionetwork dot

801
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 4: com and go to the Action Network app for all

802
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 4: of our great golf, betting and DFS content, and even better,

803
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 4: sign up for Action Pro right now. You can get

804
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 4: twenty dollars off by using code pod twenty at actionework

805
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 4: dot com slash Pro. You can find Spencer on x

806
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 4: at t off Sports and Kyle at k murr DFS.

807
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 4: They're the same handles on the free award winning Action

808
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 4: Network app as well. For Spencer Agyar and Kyle Murray.

809
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 4: I'm Mike Calabres. Thank you so much for joining us.

810
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 4: Best of luck this weekend and we'll see you at

811
00:34:54,719 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 4: the window. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

812
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 4: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

813
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

814
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:14,280
Speaker 4: hundred gambler