Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: South Africa is hosting G twenty Foreign ministers in Johannesburg,
Speaker 2: but ken it's call for solidarity, equality and sustainability stand
Speaker 2: up against an increasingly divided world order.
Speaker 3: Geopolitical tensions and rising intolerance, conflicts and war, climate change, pandemics,
Speaker 3: and energy and food insecurity do threaten an already fragile
Speaker 3: global coexistence, With the.
Speaker 2: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refusing it to attend
Speaker 2: and the Trump administration using this time to bring Russia
Speaker 2: out of the diplomatic cold, what can the first big
Speaker 2: meeting of South Africa's G twenty presidency actually achieve well?
Speaker 4: Get ida in the old named under the three in
Speaker 4: African folklore and communities, we gather under a three to
Speaker 4: have difficult conversations that challenges us. I hope that this
Speaker 4: hole will present a good platform for all the G
Speaker 4: twenty participants engage robustly to find solutions to global challenges.
Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll look
Speaker 2: at what's at stake at this G twenty summit and
Speaker 2: what chance, if any South Africa has to try and
Speaker 2: achieve any of the goals of this year's presidency. I'm
Speaker 2: Jennifer's Abasaga and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing
Speaker 2: you one story each week from the continent driving the
Speaker 2: future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.
Speaker 2: Joining us this week in Johannesburg is Bloomberg Senior reporter
Speaker 2: Anthony Squisine, who is going to be covering the G
Speaker 2: twenty summit very closely. Anthony, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 2: us and coming back on the podcast. Talk to us
Speaker 2: about what South Africa went into this summit and taking
Speaker 2: over the president's with the intention to do what was
Speaker 2: Ramaposa's plan before we saw the unfolding of the relationship
Speaker 2: between the US and South Africa.
Speaker 5: Well, I think that Romposa would have been very pleased
Speaker 5: to South Africa got to host the G twenty summits
Speaker 5: year because it gives him a chance to showcase the
Speaker 5: concerns and aims of the so called global self. So
Speaker 5: that means the reshaping of international financial institutions, which means
Speaker 5: provision of more finance for development and especially for climate adaptation,
Speaker 5: because there's been a longstanding gripe of countries like South
Speaker 5: Africa that the IMF and World Bank are too cautious
Speaker 5: in their lending. In addition to that, I think he
Speaker 5: was hoping to bring up the concerns of the wider
Speaker 5: African consonants, especially in terms of debt relief. Post the pandemic,
Speaker 5: much of the continent has been in deep debt and
Speaker 5: so a few countries have been in debt distress and
Speaker 5: even default, and the G twenty or the Big Economies
Speaker 5: approach to this has been seen as cumbersome and overly
Speaker 5: bureaucratic and moving too slowly. So all of these would
Speaker 5: have been on the table, and really also just to
Speaker 5: showcase South Africa, but he's trying to kick start the economy,
Speaker 5: and the world's eyes would have been on South Africa
Speaker 5: this yet and they still will be. But there's going
Speaker 5: to be some controversy.
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, and we've seen that really unfolding over the
Speaker 2: past few days and weeks. Let's talk about the US
Speaker 2: now refusing to at least take part in the first summit,
Speaker 2: the first few summits. How big of a blow is
Speaker 2: that for President Ramaposa.
Speaker 5: It's a huge blow. They're not refusing to take part
Speaker 5: in the summers, but what they are doing is it's
Speaker 5: a major snub. They are sending their charged affairs, which
Speaker 5: is effectively a civil servant in South Africa, to attend
Speaker 5: the Foreign Minister's summit this week, which means that nothing
Speaker 5: much can really be accomplished as far as the US
Speaker 5: is concerned. So it's a major concern because the G
Speaker 5: twenty is a meeting of the world's biggest economies, and
Speaker 5: the world's biggest economy is not taken part. How much
Speaker 5: can you really achieve? I think that we're putting a
Speaker 5: bro face on us and trying to get as much
Speaker 5: done as possible, but it's going to be difficult, and
Speaker 5: no doubt it is a bit of a blow to South.
Speaker 2: Africa, and at the same time we're seeing other partners
Speaker 2: then step up. We heard that EU Foreign Affairs chief
Speaker 2: saying that multilateralism is under threat, based on the sources
Speaker 2: that you're speaking with. Is this affecting the mood going
Speaker 2: into the summit?
Speaker 5: Yes, So I think it reflects what's going on in
Speaker 5: the wider world if we look at what's happening with
Speaker 5: the Trump administration. President Trump's comments in Europe, the defense
Speaker 5: spending on how he plans to handle the Russia, Ukraine,
Speaker 5: conflict and threats of tariffs, especially on his allies, including
Speaker 5: the EU. What it has done, I think is it's
Speaker 5: brought the EU and South Africa closer together. Now that
Speaker 5: relationship is very important. The EU frequently trots out figures
Speaker 5: that show that it's the biggest investor in South Africa,
Speaker 5: goes heads ahead with China collect in terms of total trade.
Speaker 5: But many of the factories and foreign companies that own
Speaker 5: assets in South Africa are based in Europe and they
Speaker 5: employ a lot of people. So there's been a rather
Speaker 5: fractures relationship for the last few years. That's mainly been
Speaker 5: spurred by South Africa's rather ambiguous approach toward the Russia
Speaker 5: Ukraine conflicts, because it hasn't really condemned Russia's invasion. But
Speaker 5: now we're seeing an EU South Africa summit, which has
Speaker 5: been long delayed, scheduled for early next month. We've seen
Speaker 5: the comments by Kaya Kallis, a high representative European Union,
Speaker 5: a top foreign affairs official.
Speaker 1: You can count down European Union's full support to South
Speaker 1: Africa's leadership and ambitious CHI twenty agenda. I'm also convinced
Speaker 1: that both South Africa as well as European Union and
Speaker 1: not only have an interest of working closely together, but
Speaker 1: will equally benefit from each other.
Speaker 5: And there seems to be an attempt to patch up
Speaker 5: different to stand together against the opposition that we're seeing
Speaker 5: from the Trump administration towards both South Africa and the EU.
Speaker 5: At the same time, South Africa is a member of
Speaker 5: the BRICKS group of large Emerging market economies and when
Speaker 5: Marco Rubio, Secretive of State said he would not be
Speaker 5: coming to the South African summit this week, that China
Speaker 5: was the first to express support for South Africa's goals.
Speaker 5: And I think it will deepen the ties within BRICKS
Speaker 5: between South Africa and China and perhaps all South Africa.
Speaker 5: India and India and China our big trade partners as
Speaker 5: well for South Africa, especially China, but it does give
Speaker 5: them an opportunity to cement those ties and build on them,
Speaker 5: strengthening the BRICKS grouping at the expense of the G twenty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we've heard from at least US President Trump
Speaker 2: talking about the Bricks even in his first few days,
Speaker 2: I believe, even before he took office. That will be
Speaker 2: interesting to see how that develops. Anthony stick with US
Speaker 2: when we come back, we're going to talk about potentially
Speaker 2: what could still be achieved, and as you mentioned, this
Speaker 2: is an opportunity for South Africa what role they could
Speaker 2: play on the world stage as they host this G twenty.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Welcome back today. On the podcast,
Speaker 2: we're discussing the G twenty presidency being held by South
Speaker 2: Africa amid a time of global turmoil. Bloomberg Senior importer
Speaker 2: Anthony Squisine is still with us, so Anthony. Earlier we
Speaker 2: talked about what South Africa was hoping to achieve before
Speaker 2: the Trump administration had started targeting a bit. What is
Speaker 2: definitively on the agenda though over the next few days.
Speaker 5: I think it's very early, it's the first summit of
Speaker 5: the G twenty year, but I think what South Africa
Speaker 5: will be and looking to do is to get its
Speaker 5: aims in front of its partners within the G twenty.
Speaker 5: A lot of those revolve around global financial institutions, and
Speaker 5: I think given that South Africa and EU are probably
Speaker 5: a lot closer aligned on their concerns of a climate
Speaker 5: change than the US, especially under the current administration, there
Speaker 5: may be something to achieve The European countries have already
Speaker 5: contributed a lot towards South Africa's energy transition in terms
Speaker 5: of soft loans and grants to help the country consition
Speaker 5: away from coal, and I think there will be an
Speaker 5: openness toward discussing putting pressure on global financial institutions, the
Speaker 5: World Bank, the IMFIFC on providing more money to help
Speaker 5: African and other emerging market countries or developing nations buffer
Speaker 5: their infrastructure and economies against the impact of climate change,
Speaker 5: which South Africa rightly argues that hasn't been caused by
Speaker 5: developing countries given that they have very little industry of
Speaker 5: their own and therefore produce not very much in terms
Speaker 5: of emissions, So that'll be one thing. I think that
Speaker 5: also they're also try and get their issue on the
Speaker 5: agenda and generally pushing for discussions on giving the global South,
Speaker 5: which is not just the big countries like India, China
Speaker 5: and to a lesser extent of Africa, but all of
Speaker 5: the global staff a greater voice in global institutions, ranging
Speaker 5: from the UN to again the World Bank.
Speaker 2: And we've seen President Trump, at least initially in the
Speaker 2: first few weeks, retreating from a lot of multilateral institutions.
Speaker 2: The future of the US in the G twenty is
Speaker 2: up for debate. Can the G twenty, though, make some
Speaker 2: progress on a lot of these issues that you're talking
Speaker 2: about without the US at.
Speaker 5: The table, I think they can. I think that they
Speaker 5: will regard it as a shame that the US, the
Speaker 5: world's biggest economy, is not with them, But given that
Speaker 5: they're unserligned on climate issues and on trade and on globalism,
Speaker 5: I think in some ways it might make the conversations
Speaker 5: a bit more easy because they don't have the one
Speaker 5: party that's dragging its feet. But at the end of
Speaker 5: the day, there's only so much you can achieve when
Speaker 5: a large chunk of the world economy is not participating
Speaker 5: in your talks.
Speaker 2: And finally, Anthony, when we think of the time that
Speaker 2: it is here, the time I guess it is that
Speaker 2: South Africa is facing right now with the economy. We
Speaker 2: saw the budget getting postponed. What's your expectation for the
Speaker 2: role that Africa or South Africa can play in international
Speaker 2: diplomacy given a lot of the domestic issues that the
Speaker 2: country is facing.
Speaker 5: Well, I think that in some ways the domestic issues
Speaker 5: are helpful for South Africa because the fact that it
Speaker 5: has a coalition government. It's having to accept broad array
Speaker 5: of views, as we saw yesterday with the budget being
Speaker 5: postponed because the African National Congress is the governing partners,
Speaker 5: the DA and some of the smaller parties did not
Speaker 5: agree with a plan to hike value out of Texas.
Speaker 5: It shows that it's functioning as a democracy, and I
Speaker 5: mean it's very similar to a lot of the European
Speaker 5: countries that will be dealing with. Germany has a coalition
Speaker 5: and so do many other European nations, so I don't
Speaker 5: think it's necessarily a negative. And generally, if you look
Speaker 5: at the forecast and South African economy is on upward track,
Speaker 5: nothing spectacular, but it is on the mend and the
Speaker 5: right performs are very slowly being put in place, so
Speaker 5: it's an upswing. I definitely think South Africa could have
Speaker 5: done without the turbulence that Trump's comments about sixty land
Speaker 5: reform policies, and that's international diplomacy. That's certainly not helpful,
Speaker 5: and it's not helpful that Marco Rubio and other US
Speaker 5: officials won't be attending the G twenty meetings. But nevertheless,
Speaker 5: there is room for something to be achieved.
Speaker 2: And you can read all of our coverage of the
Speaker 2: g twenty across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the
Speaker 2: other stories we've been following across the region. This week,
Speaker 2: South African finance Minister Ino Godongwana proposed a shock consumption
Speaker 2: tax increase to help rein in government debt, but the
Speaker 2: move was rejected by other parties in the nation's coalition
Speaker 2: government and derailed the unveiling of the budget. For the
Speaker 2: first time ever in the country's history. Gonon Guana will
Speaker 2: release a revival budget in three weeks of That increase
Speaker 2: would have been the first since twenty eighteen and wasn't
Speaker 2: anticipated by any economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Earlier this month,
Speaker 2: and Rwanda backed rebels in the Eastern Democratic Republic of
Speaker 2: Congo have advanced southward, reaching Burundi's border and bringing the
Speaker 2: Central African region to the brink of war. According to
Speaker 2: the United Nations, Rwanda has been impervious to widespread demands
Speaker 2: for a ceasefire, and the m twenty three offensive has
Speaker 2: raised concerns about the country's ultimate goal. Rwanda invaded Congo
Speaker 2: twice in the nineties to overthrow its government, and you
Speaker 2: can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.
Speaker 2: We'll put a link to that in the show notes.
Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to
Speaker 2: follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thank you for listening.