1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 2: South Africa is hosting G twenty Foreign ministers in Johannesburg, 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: but ken it's call for solidarity, equality and sustainability stand 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 2: up against an increasingly divided world order. 5 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 3: Geopolitical tensions and rising intolerance, conflicts and war, climate change, pandemics, 6 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 3: and energy and food insecurity do threaten an already fragile 7 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 3: global coexistence, With the. 8 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refusing it to attend 9 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: and the Trump administration using this time to bring Russia 10 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: out of the diplomatic cold, what can the first big 11 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: meeting of South Africa's G twenty presidency actually achieve well? 12 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 4: Get ida in the old named under the three in 13 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 4: African folklore and communities, we gather under a three to 14 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 4: have difficult conversations that challenges us. I hope that this 15 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 4: hole will present a good platform for all the G 16 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 4: twenty participants engage robustly to find solutions to global challenges. 17 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll look 18 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: at what's at stake at this G twenty summit and 19 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: what chance, if any South Africa has to try and 20 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: achieve any of the goals of this year's presidency. I'm 21 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 2: Jennifer's Abasaga and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing 22 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 2: you one story each week from the continent driving the 23 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. 24 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 2: Joining us this week in Johannesburg is Bloomberg Senior reporter 25 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: Anthony Squisine, who is going to be covering the G 26 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: twenty summit very closely. Anthony, thanks so much for joining 27 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 2: us and coming back on the podcast. Talk to us 28 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 2: about what South Africa went into this summit and taking 29 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 2: over the president's with the intention to do what was 30 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: Ramaposa's plan before we saw the unfolding of the relationship 31 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: between the US and South Africa. 32 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 5: Well, I think that Romposa would have been very pleased 33 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 5: to South Africa got to host the G twenty summits 34 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 5: year because it gives him a chance to showcase the 35 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 5: concerns and aims of the so called global self. So 36 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 5: that means the reshaping of international financial institutions, which means 37 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 5: provision of more finance for development and especially for climate adaptation, 38 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,959 Speaker 5: because there's been a longstanding gripe of countries like South 39 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 5: Africa that the IMF and World Bank are too cautious 40 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,519 Speaker 5: in their lending. In addition to that, I think he 41 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 5: was hoping to bring up the concerns of the wider 42 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 5: African consonants, especially in terms of debt relief. Post the pandemic, 43 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 5: much of the continent has been in deep debt and 44 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 5: so a few countries have been in debt distress and 45 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 5: even default, and the G twenty or the Big Economies 46 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 5: approach to this has been seen as cumbersome and overly 47 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 5: bureaucratic and moving too slowly. So all of these would 48 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 5: have been on the table, and really also just to 49 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 5: showcase South Africa, but he's trying to kick start the economy, 50 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 5: and the world's eyes would have been on South Africa 51 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 5: this yet and they still will be. But there's going 52 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 5: to be some controversy. 53 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 2: Now, yeah, and we've seen that really unfolding over the 54 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: past few days and weeks. Let's talk about the US 55 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 2: now refusing to at least take part in the first summit, 56 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 2: the first few summits. How big of a blow is 57 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: that for President Ramaposa. 58 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 5: It's a huge blow. They're not refusing to take part 59 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 5: in the summers, but what they are doing is it's 60 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 5: a major snub. They are sending their charged affairs, which 61 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 5: is effectively a civil servant in South Africa, to attend 62 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 5: the Foreign Minister's summit this week, which means that nothing 63 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 5: much can really be accomplished as far as the US 64 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 5: is concerned. So it's a major concern because the G 65 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 5: twenty is a meeting of the world's biggest economies, and 66 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 5: the world's biggest economy is not taken part. How much 67 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 5: can you really achieve? I think that we're putting a 68 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 5: bro face on us and trying to get as much 69 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 5: done as possible, but it's going to be difficult, and 70 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 5: no doubt it is a bit of a blow to South. 71 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: Africa, and at the same time we're seeing other partners 72 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,799 Speaker 2: then step up. We heard that EU Foreign Affairs chief 73 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: saying that multilateralism is under threat, based on the sources 74 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 2: that you're speaking with. Is this affecting the mood going 75 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: into the summit? 76 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 5: Yes, So I think it reflects what's going on in 77 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:30,919 Speaker 5: the wider world if we look at what's happening with 78 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 5: the Trump administration. President Trump's comments in Europe, the defense 79 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 5: spending on how he plans to handle the Russia, Ukraine, 80 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 5: conflict and threats of tariffs, especially on his allies, including 81 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 5: the EU. What it has done, I think is it's 82 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 5: brought the EU and South Africa closer together. Now that 83 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 5: relationship is very important. The EU frequently trots out figures 84 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 5: that show that it's the biggest investor in South Africa, 85 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 5: goes heads ahead with China collect in terms of total trade. 86 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 5: But many of the factories and foreign companies that own 87 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 5: assets in South Africa are based in Europe and they 88 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 5: employ a lot of people. So there's been a rather 89 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 5: fractures relationship for the last few years. That's mainly been 90 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 5: spurred by South Africa's rather ambiguous approach toward the Russia 91 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 5: Ukraine conflicts, because it hasn't really condemned Russia's invasion. But 92 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 5: now we're seeing an EU South Africa summit, which has 93 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 5: been long delayed, scheduled for early next month. We've seen 94 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 5: the comments by Kaya Kallis, a high representative European Union, 95 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 5: a top foreign affairs official. 96 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: You can count down European Union's full support to South 97 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: Africa's leadership and ambitious CHI twenty agenda. I'm also convinced 98 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: that both South Africa as well as European Union and 99 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 1: not only have an interest of working closely together, but 100 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: will equally benefit from each other. 101 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 5: And there seems to be an attempt to patch up 102 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 5: different to stand together against the opposition that we're seeing 103 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 5: from the Trump administration towards both South Africa and the EU. 104 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 5: At the same time, South Africa is a member of 105 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 5: the BRICKS group of large Emerging market economies and when 106 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 5: Marco Rubio, Secretive of State said he would not be 107 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,239 Speaker 5: coming to the South African summit this week, that China 108 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 5: was the first to express support for South Africa's goals. 109 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 5: And I think it will deepen the ties within BRICKS 110 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 5: between South Africa and China and perhaps all South Africa. 111 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 5: India and India and China our big trade partners as 112 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 5: well for South Africa, especially China, but it does give 113 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 5: them an opportunity to cement those ties and build on them, 114 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 5: strengthening the BRICKS grouping at the expense of the G twenty. 115 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we've heard from at least US President Trump 116 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: talking about the Bricks even in his first few days, 117 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 2: I believe, even before he took office. That will be 118 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 2: interesting to see how that develops. Anthony stick with US 119 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 2: when we come back, we're going to talk about potentially 120 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 2: what could still be achieved, and as you mentioned, this 121 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: is an opportunity for South Africa what role they could 122 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 2: play on the world stage as they host this G twenty. 123 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Welcome back today. On the podcast, 124 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 2: we're discussing the G twenty presidency being held by South 125 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: Africa amid a time of global turmoil. Bloomberg Senior importer 126 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 2: Anthony Squisine is still with us, so Anthony. Earlier we 127 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 2: talked about what South Africa was hoping to achieve before 128 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 2: the Trump administration had started targeting a bit. What is 129 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: definitively on the agenda though over the next few days. 130 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 5: I think it's very early, it's the first summit of 131 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 5: the G twenty year, but I think what South Africa 132 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 5: will be and looking to do is to get its 133 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 5: aims in front of its partners within the G twenty. 134 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 5: A lot of those revolve around global financial institutions, and 135 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 5: I think given that South Africa and EU are probably 136 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 5: a lot closer aligned on their concerns of a climate 137 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 5: change than the US, especially under the current administration, there 138 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 5: may be something to achieve The European countries have already 139 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 5: contributed a lot towards South Africa's energy transition in terms 140 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 5: of soft loans and grants to help the country consition 141 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 5: away from coal, and I think there will be an 142 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 5: openness toward discussing putting pressure on global financial institutions, the 143 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 5: World Bank, the IMFIFC on providing more money to help 144 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 5: African and other emerging market countries or developing nations buffer 145 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 5: their infrastructure and economies against the impact of climate change, 146 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 5: which South Africa rightly argues that hasn't been caused by 147 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 5: developing countries given that they have very little industry of 148 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 5: their own and therefore produce not very much in terms 149 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 5: of emissions, So that'll be one thing. I think that 150 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 5: also they're also try and get their issue on the 151 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 5: agenda and generally pushing for discussions on giving the global South, 152 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 5: which is not just the big countries like India, China 153 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 5: and to a lesser extent of Africa, but all of 154 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 5: the global staff a greater voice in global institutions, ranging 155 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 5: from the UN to again the World Bank. 156 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 2: And we've seen President Trump, at least initially in the 157 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 2: first few weeks, retreating from a lot of multilateral institutions. 158 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: The future of the US in the G twenty is 159 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 2: up for debate. Can the G twenty, though, make some 160 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: progress on a lot of these issues that you're talking 161 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 2: about without the US at. 162 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 5: The table, I think they can. I think that they 163 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 5: will regard it as a shame that the US, the 164 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 5: world's biggest economy, is not with them, But given that 165 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 5: they're unserligned on climate issues and on trade and on globalism, 166 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 5: I think in some ways it might make the conversations 167 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 5: a bit more easy because they don't have the one 168 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 5: party that's dragging its feet. But at the end of 169 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 5: the day, there's only so much you can achieve when 170 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 5: a large chunk of the world economy is not participating 171 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 5: in your talks. 172 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 2: And finally, Anthony, when we think of the time that 173 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 2: it is here, the time I guess it is that 174 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 2: South Africa is facing right now with the economy. We 175 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 2: saw the budget getting postponed. What's your expectation for the 176 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,599 Speaker 2: role that Africa or South Africa can play in international 177 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 2: diplomacy given a lot of the domestic issues that the 178 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 2: country is facing. 179 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 5: Well, I think that in some ways the domestic issues 180 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 5: are helpful for South Africa because the fact that it 181 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 5: has a coalition government. It's having to accept broad array 182 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 5: of views, as we saw yesterday with the budget being 183 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 5: postponed because the African National Congress is the governing partners, 184 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 5: the DA and some of the smaller parties did not 185 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 5: agree with a plan to hike value out of Texas. 186 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 5: It shows that it's functioning as a democracy, and I 187 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 5: mean it's very similar to a lot of the European 188 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 5: countries that will be dealing with. Germany has a coalition 189 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 5: and so do many other European nations, so I don't 190 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 5: think it's necessarily a negative. And generally, if you look 191 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 5: at the forecast and South African economy is on upward track, 192 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 5: nothing spectacular, but it is on the mend and the 193 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 5: right performs are very slowly being put in place, so 194 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 5: it's an upswing. I definitely think South Africa could have 195 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 5: done without the turbulence that Trump's comments about sixty land 196 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 5: reform policies, and that's international diplomacy. That's certainly not helpful, 197 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 5: and it's not helpful that Marco Rubio and other US 198 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 5: officials won't be attending the G twenty meetings. But nevertheless, 199 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 5: there is room for something to be achieved. 200 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 2: And you can read all of our coverage of the 201 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 2: g twenty across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the 202 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 2: other stories we've been following across the region. This week, 203 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 2: South African finance Minister Ino Godongwana proposed a shock consumption 204 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 2: tax increase to help rein in government debt, but the 205 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: move was rejected by other parties in the nation's coalition 206 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 2: government and derailed the unveiling of the budget. For the 207 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 2: first time ever in the country's history. Gonon Guana will 208 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 2: release a revival budget in three weeks of That increase 209 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 2: would have been the first since twenty eighteen and wasn't 210 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 2: anticipated by any economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Earlier this month, 211 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 2: and Rwanda backed rebels in the Eastern Democratic Republic of 212 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 2: Congo have advanced southward, reaching Burundi's border and bringing the 213 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 2: Central African region to the brink of war. According to 214 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: the United Nations, Rwanda has been impervious to widespread demands 215 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 2: for a ceasefire, and the m twenty three offensive has 216 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 2: raised concerns about the country's ultimate goal. Rwanda invaded Congo 217 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: twice in the nineties to overthrow its government, and you 218 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. 219 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: We'll put a link to that in the show notes. 220 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to 221 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 2: follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts. 222 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thank you for listening.