1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 2: Hey, there odd lots listeners. You are about to hear 3 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 2: a very special episode of the podcast. This was recorded 4 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: live at our June twenty sixth event in New York. 5 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 2: We were talking with Charlie mcgelligate. He is, of course, 6 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 2: managing director and cross Asset macro strategist for the Global 7 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: Markets America's business over at Nomora. We talked to him 8 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: about volatility in the market. 9 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: What else, Yep, it's been a kind of extraordinary couple 10 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: of months with stocks basically at all time highs despite 11 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 3: so much going on in the world. What actually explains 12 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 3: what's happening. Charlie does a pretty good job, So take 13 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: a listen. 14 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:54,959 Speaker 4: Thank you so much Charlie for being here. 15 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 5: Awesome to be here, Awesome to see you guys. 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 3: So I didn't actually see where the market closed today, 17 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: but like we're pretty close, like either a record highs 18 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 3: or very. 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 4: Close to it. I didn't actually see. 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 3: But it's crazy to me all that's happened in twenty 21 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 3: twenty five and like we're sitting here at all time highs. 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 4: It's not intuitive. You have to admit, it's kind of weird. 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 5: The you know, I think the message I'm trying to 24 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 5: remember the last time I was with you guys, but 25 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,199 Speaker 5: probably the message that I was communicating at that time 26 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 5: was the fixation and kind of the dooming with the 27 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 5: left tail scenarios. Yea. And as so often is the 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 5: case when people are not incentivized to see the world burn, 29 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 5: which might be debatable to some sure, but and you 30 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 5: start seeing, especially with regard to you know, negotiating tactics 31 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 5: and things like that, where you start getting that not 32 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 5: quite as bad as feared scenario. Oftentimes there's an impact, 33 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 5: certainly with the mechanical stuff that we so often talk about, 34 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 5: and you really underprice the less bad outcome, and there's 35 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 5: a mechanical imp there's a lot of you know, vault 36 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 5: distribution stuff, and it creates second order impact, second order flows. 37 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 5: I think the most fascinating two points that I would say, 38 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 5: outside of the you know, the mechanical flows that we 39 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 5: talk about and the volatility component of this is two things. 40 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 5: I think back to twenty twenty two where we had 41 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 5: our first kind of inflation driven macro bear case, right 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 5: it just started the tightening cycle. I think there was 43 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 5: nine or ten months in a row of inflation upside 44 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 5: surprises with CPI, and you know, the macro bear case 45 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 5: for equities at that point was this earnings recession where 46 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 5: due to this price shock, it was going to impact consumption, 47 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 5: top line sales go lower, and you know, so on 48 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 5: and so forth. What ended up happening is ironically, because 49 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 5: of the health of the consumer and tight, tight, tight 50 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 5: employment with wages at forty year highs, you ended up 51 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 5: actually getting a dynamic where the corporate world operates on 52 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 5: aggregate consumption, they operate in the nominal GDP world, and 53 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 5: that inflation, perversely for the bears was the earnings catalyst 54 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 5: and all those folks got stopped out in twenty twenty three. 55 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 5: There is an element of that still to this day 56 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 5: right now as it relates to earnings, even even though 57 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 5: like nominal GDP is is in a different place to 58 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 5: a certain extent, still kind of five percentage. But the 59 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: other point too is that as it relates to the 60 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 5: capex spending uncertainty story, right if corporates don't know what 61 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 5: they're supposed to do with their cash because of the 62 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 5: you know, the the kind of range of outcomes with 63 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 5: regards to you know, where they were these you know, uh, 64 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 5: tariffs are gonna end up the stand in the gears 65 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 5: of the global economy. Well, the thought was, of course, 66 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 5: you know, if corporates don't know what to be spending 67 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 5: on and consumers are feeling that impact as well, you're 68 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 5: gonna get this eventual drag with regards to consumption. You're 69 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 5: gonna have corporates in a bad place. You either lose 70 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 5: the top line, say because consumers are paying through the roof, 71 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 5: or you have to absorb those costs and your margins 72 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 5: go lower. But what corporates have instead done have taken 73 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 5: authorized buybacks all time highs. So we're not spending on 74 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 5: you know, R and D, we're not spending on hiring 75 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 5: or building that new plant. We're going to buy back 76 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 5: more stock than ever before a year to date. And 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 5: that you know, if you look at corporate buyback flows 78 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 5: as a source of demand for equities over the past 79 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 5: ten to fifteen year period, it's a magnitudes six seven 80 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 5: eight times magnitudes largest source of demand. So you've had 81 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 5: these two kind of unintuitive dynamics in the market that 82 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 5: have actually kept us higher. On top of all those 83 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 5: kind of vall scaling things that we like to talk about. 84 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 2: Wait, so the other thing that's happened is people are 85 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 2: back to actually selling valls, so basically betting that, you know, 86 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 2: things will stay relatively calm. Why is that happening. It 87 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: seems like a weird time to bet for so many Yeah. 88 00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 5: I think selling vall has become a new form of 89 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 5: fixed income in a world where bonds are no longer 90 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 5: a risk. Create asset now that you know can go 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 5: wrong so many ways. In this case, the proliferation of 92 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 5: like premium income overriding strategies within the ETHF world, exotic 93 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 5: structured products, and kind of you know more, I would say, 94 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 5: you know, complicated you know, vall selling strategies like dispersion, 95 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 5: things like that. The number of val suppliers out there 96 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 5: very short dated. It gets dealers stuffed on gamma, I 97 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 5: always like to say. And in that sense, you know, 98 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 5: particularly with the amount of short dated volatility selling, you know, 99 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 5: when dealers are stuffed on gamma, it compresses the distribution 100 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 5: of outcomes. Right, if market's moving higher, you're selling into 101 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 5: that market's moving lower. Your shock absorbing. The thing that 102 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 5: I would say back to that point about you know, 103 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 5: selling volatility is some sort of kind of fixed income 104 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 5: product back in twenty twenty two with that tightening cycle 105 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 5: and all the bear dooming with regards to you know, 106 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 5: we're going to break something, you know, such a such 107 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 5: a powerful you know, ultimately over five hundred base points 108 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 5: of tyke of hikes. The trick was that, okay, you 109 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 5: the FED is telling you to be short assets. You 110 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 5: need to be able to sleep at night. Cash was 111 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 5: an asset again, so you know, MARKO was down thirty percent, 112 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 5: bonds were down simultaneously. Yeah, deck was you know, you know, 113 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 5: even bigger than that, obviously, because remember it was like 114 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 5: this tech centric growth kind of unwined. But what ended 115 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 5: up happening was that, you know, the FED was trying 116 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 5: to create a negative wealth effect. We've talked about that 117 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 5: before because they couldn't impact supply side disruption, they could 118 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 5: only impact demand side. And by telling you to be 119 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 5: in cash you could sleep at night. Well, guess what 120 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 5: the next year you missed a fifty percent rally in 121 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 5: the NASDAC. So what really smart marketers have done is say, well, 122 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 5: I'm going to give you price appreciation of equities just capped, 123 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 5: and off the back of that too, we're going to 124 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 5: sell out of the money calls against this, and you 125 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 5: get this like little premium income thing and it's you know, 126 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 5: they're never telling you you're shorting options. The good news 127 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 5: is with a lot of these products nowadays, like you're 128 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 5: not shorting crash, you're not shorting downside. But also too 129 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 5: sometimes they're contributing to their own demise in this kind 130 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 5: of grinding market where you're stopping into the calls that 131 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 5: you've been selling. 132 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 4: There's so much going on. 133 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 3: I totally forgot that we had such a big sell 134 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: off in twenty twenty two. I totally forgot that there 135 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 3: was like a fifty percent like all of these things like, 136 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 3: oh that actually happened, zooming out big picture like it 137 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 3: seems objectively true. You've been trading a long time, Like 138 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 3: there are so many headlines these days, and they're always 139 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 3: changing and. 140 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 4: There's just so much to talk about. 141 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 3: What is the trading like and how do you know 142 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: does it feel different these days when there's just we're 143 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 3: just facing this constant wall of news. Is there something 144 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 3: that changes in the sort of complexion of how people trade. 145 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 5: Well, there's there's certainly different like risk appetite regimes, risks 146 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 5: and regimes, you know where you know, there was a 147 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 5: period of time I remember, and those early discussions on 148 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 5: like zero DT options where generally speaking at that time, 149 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 5: coming off the back of like you know, meme coins 150 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 5: and coos and that whole like yolo phenomenon. Yea, you know, 151 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 5: the speculative xs peak of that kind of twenty twenty one, 152 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 5: you know, STiMi check driven madness. That was a very 153 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 5: different world where people were kind of like you know, 154 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 5: buying you know, optionality, creating gamma squeezes, the rediboards, Wall 155 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 5: Street bats, all that jazz. Now that you're kind of 156 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 5: settling into this world, we've been conditioned. We've been conditioned 157 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 5: for fifteen years of moral hazard, right, central bankers intervening obviously, 158 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 5: politicians now intervening. And this is like you know, party 159 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 5: agnostic with regards to the fiscal stimulus, where it has 160 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 5: become conditioned into traders both retail and institutional. You know 161 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 5: this dynamic where you have to this is the expected behavior, 162 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,959 Speaker 5: you have to buy that, right, So you're constantly trying 163 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 5: to like kind of triangular and kind of sanity check 164 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 5: yourself with regards to this reflexivity. And you know, like 165 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 5: August fifth, August second, August fifth last year were a 166 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 5: really interesting experiment because August second, we finally got that 167 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 5: first glimpse at what our market will eventually do. This 168 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 5: time again huge var event and you know, within the 169 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 5: fixed income space certainly, and then trickled down to all 170 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 5: asset classes from there. It was the first time that 171 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 5: labor looked like labor was cracking. And we had that 172 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 5: you know four Z score miss and the U rate 173 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 5: and two and AS score miss and the non farm 174 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 5: payroll print and that was after a week of already 175 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 5: soft labor data. And that was the holy moment. Once 176 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 5: the consumer goes, this whole you know, economic miracle goes. 177 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 5: And what that then created was this, you know, was 178 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 5: this massive dynamic where at the end of that day, 179 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 5: everybody said, Okay, risk is dicey right now, there's going 180 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 5: to be a lot of leveraging off the back of 181 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 5: this realized volatility shock. I want to go home short delta, 182 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 5: like short the market, but it'll be short ball because 183 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 5: vall squeezed ball exploded that day. That was both clients 184 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 5: and options dealers. The problem was because of all these 185 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 5: second order impacts and deleveraging impacts, and was that Nick 186 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 5: On Sunday night opened down twelve percent. So that short 187 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 5: ball position that was going to be so smart because 188 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 5: we always reflexively sell that, you know, and you've got 189 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 5: to monetize your hedges in like two hours before people 190 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 5: start leaning in all that VALL supply. The back test says, 191 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 5: the higher VALL goes, the more I have to sell, 192 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 5: and that's that sell the ball rip by the dip. Well, 193 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 5: those people got their arms blown off, you know, by 194 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 5: eight in the morning. And that was the famous like 195 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 5: VIX index, right, which is a theoretical calculation based on 196 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 5: like fake bidden offers from dealers. Basically you know, printed 197 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 5: sixty three or whatever. It was not an actual ticking price. 198 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 5: But then the vic's future was traded at thirty eight, 199 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 5: which is like realistic. But you know, those are those 200 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 5: scenarios where that conditioning is how things go really wrong 201 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 5: because you think you got it figured out, you don't. 202 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 5: The most recent example, of course, has been you know 203 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 5: this this Trump collar dynamic, where the market finally figured 204 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 5: out what was the human vvix as I call him. 205 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 5: You know who k who? You know the volatility. 206 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 4: You're the only. 207 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 5: One who one I need it on my coffee mug. 208 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 5: You know, I have these like nomur coffee mugs with 209 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 5: some of my favorite sayings, like human vvix would have 210 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 5: been a good one to trademark. 211 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 4: We'll trade you an odd mug for a human vivix. 212 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 4: That's done. 213 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 5: But like you know, he hasn't. He views himself as 214 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 5: having a mandate to disrupt the status quo of eighty 215 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 5: years of pox Americana. Like and that's clearly like the 216 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 5: the approach here, right, so the prior distribution of outcomes 217 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 5: is now out here. The quick learning from the market, however, 218 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 5: after these initial series of ball shocks, was that, okay, 219 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 5: we found a pain point. You know, markets sold off 220 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 5: to such an extent, the interest rate volatility, particularly in 221 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 5: the long end, not just stocks, all right, you know, 222 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 5: we've activated the Trump put. However, upon those compromises, the 223 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 5: market rallies back. It increases his you know, willingness to 224 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 5: then lean back in from a negotiating ploy. So he's 225 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 5: basically selling the call to fund the put. And when 226 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 5: you have that coloring effect, you get the opposite dynamic, right, 227 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 5: you get this realize of all compression, which is frankly 228 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 5: a large part of what the past two months has 229 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 5: been so you're constantly reassessing how everybody thinks you're going 230 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 5: to think, which is like you're anticipating the anticipators. 231 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 2: So Joe asked you for basically color on the complexion 232 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 2: of the market nowadays. And I know you just got 233 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 2: back from weren't you on some sort of crazy epic 234 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 2: travel schedule where you flew around the world. What are 235 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 2: you hearing from clients? Like what kind of questions are 236 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 2: they asking you? 237 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 5: People are so consensually macro bear, you know, on that 238 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 5: stagflation an area outcome, you know, and I think, like 239 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 5: that's that's one of the tricks, Like it's you know, 240 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 5: at first, it was like okay, you know, let's let's 241 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 5: expect you know, these early returns like mind you you know, 242 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 5: Smoot Hawley terrifies, like ninety years terrifies, right we you know, 243 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 5: prior to the Trump two point zero the effective rate 244 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 5: was two point four percent. We're seventeen point three percent 245 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 5: right now as it stands, right, So, like, you know, 246 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 5: how does that not bleed through to this you know, 247 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 5: eventual price shock or margin compression, all this stuff that 248 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 5: hits you know, consumption, And you know, initially it was okay, midsummer. 249 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 5: I think part of what's happening right now is that, 250 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 5: you know, from a corporate perspective as it relates to 251 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 5: the consumer, is that Taco has changed their behavior too, 252 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 5: like why, you know, I'm not going to blow up 253 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 5: my top line sales and you know rush to you know, 254 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 5: price shock my clients at a time. 255 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 4: You know so, I think. 256 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 5: There's been a lot of holding off too as far 257 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 5: as or willingness to even absorb a little bit of 258 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 5: that the price you know increases that are coming through, 259 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 5: and you know, so it's been getting increasingly uncomfortable. All 260 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 5: these left tail most acute outcomes have have certainly been 261 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 5: mitigated away and compromised away and kind of handed away. 262 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 5: The market starts rallying in your face. You're expecting this 263 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 5: very barish outcome. It's starting to hurt. You've underpriced the 264 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 5: right tail. You get a fiscal deal seemingly close to 265 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 5: being done even just today, right late in the day, 266 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 5: section eight ninety nine, which is this kind of like 267 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 5: you know, completely. 268 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 4: Wrote a bunch about it. 269 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 5: No, yeah, the revenge tax, right, is there anything worse 270 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 5: than like getting a bunch of work done and then having. 271 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 2: A trash it all I'll say is it's good for content. 272 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 4: Yes, there we go, Yes it is. 273 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: You talk a lot about hypotheticals over the past couple 274 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: of months. 275 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 5: Sure, yeah, you know, you're you're well educated with your scenarios. 276 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 5: But like in this case, you know that was another 277 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 5: you know, this revenge tax escalation. Well, all of a sudden, 278 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 5: now you know cooler heads prevail. That increases the likelihood 279 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 5: that the digital tax, you know, stuff with Europe that 280 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 5: was an impediment for deals goes, you know, right way. 281 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 5: So you've just had like left tails turned right tails 282 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 5: and nobody has the exposure on. There's just so much 283 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 5: chronic macability. Now perversely, you're seeing it with stocks. People 284 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 5: are getting stopped in, you're buying the highs. You're having 285 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 5: to take up your exposure. I having to take up 286 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 5: your nets after fighting it, kicking and screaming and grossly 287 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 5: under capturing the rally. This is when it sets the 288 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 5: table for crash. And that's why as you're forced to 289 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 5: get longer, you have to start hedge, you have to 290 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 5: start head. 291 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 3: Do you think right now? I mean I remember, well, 292 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 3: like right now today, would you say there's still a 293 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 3: lot there's a lot of discretionary money where people feel 294 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 3: like they're underweight at the market, where they feel like 295 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 3: they're still fighting this dynamics and they're still feeling every 296 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 3: day the stock market goes up, I don't have the 297 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 3: exposure I wish I had. 298 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 5: Those are the classic buyers are higher. 299 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's still lot, but they haven't they haven't fully 300 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 3: capitulated yet. 301 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 5: But it's you know what you're seeing with the market 302 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 5: grinding higher every day and by the way through the 303 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 5: straddle like this is the interesting thing. I always say, 304 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 5: we can't crash until skew is steep. SKW is a 305 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 5: relative measure of kind of downside demand versus upside demand. 306 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 5: You know, put skewed demand for out of the money 307 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 5: downside versus out the money downside, both of those metrics 308 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 5: in the past week of it one hundred percentile over 309 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 5: the past year. The past year is how it is 310 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 5: going on. Right, So you know people are hedged because 311 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 5: they are back getting long where things get spicy. And 312 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 5: when you're hedged, I means dealers are you know short downside, 313 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 5: they're going to be short gamma and short vega into 314 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 5: a sellof that's accelerant flow that feeds into the prevailing 315 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 5: mark and momentum. The lower that we go, the more 316 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 5: you know, spot equities you have to sell. The higher 317 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 5: the vall goes, the more of all you have to buy. 318 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 5: Bad scenario. It's an accelerant flow in this case the trick. 319 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 5: Now that's starting to happen, and this is why I 320 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 5: feel like we're probably getting closer to you know, a crescendo. 321 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 5: Is that now you're getting spot the market up, vault up, 322 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 5: ball of all going up. And what that's telling me 323 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 5: is that, Okay, people are actually now being forced to 324 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 5: chase into upside right and right now. 325 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 3: Part of our for the newsletter tomorrow, yeahs, spot up, 326 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 3: spot up, all up, vv all up. 327 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 5: And what that means is that people are being forced 328 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 5: to grab into the upside. And that's also feeding this 329 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 5: short gamma move to the upside because dealers are short 330 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 5: calls now and this, you know, as we hit sixty 331 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 5: one fifty sixty two hundred, things like that. Ultimately, I 332 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 5: always like to say, when you get spot up all 333 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 5: up in and of itself, it creates kind of like 334 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 5: a melt up, like some sort of kind of you know, 335 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 5: squeezy rally on the way up that collapses under the 336 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 5: weight of its own delta like collapses under the weight 337 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 5: of the mechanical buying on the way up, the mechanical 338 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 5: dealer hedging on the way up, because you need to 339 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 5: keep fulfilling that need and demand. People are getting longer, 340 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 5: you know, you're finally seeing that dynamic people are getting longer. 341 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 5: That creates the potential de risking flow on the way down, 342 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 5: especially once you're talking about systematic VALL scaling strategies that 343 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 5: as VALL goes higher, they have to just sell, you know, unemotionally. 344 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 2: But what would be a reasonable catalyst for that to happen. 345 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 5: Well, I think the the near term one has been 346 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 5: you know, the fact that you know, July eighth, the 347 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 5: original kind of reciprocal delay that you know, and you 348 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 5: saw a bunch of headlines today saying like that's flexible, 349 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 5: morally flexible, you know. I think that big surprise, Yeah, 350 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 5: let's make a deal. I would say that that right now, 351 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 5: that's kind of like the most obvious you know one 352 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 5: out there that you know, there's still some element of hardball. 353 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:31,199 Speaker 5: My view is that that's somewhat overstated, that that is 354 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 5: somewhat overstated because he needs to get one big beautiful 355 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:38,239 Speaker 5: bill passed first before that, and then potentially you can 356 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 5: play the game. But the fact that this eight ninety 357 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 5: nine was removed tells me that they know that getting 358 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 5: a deal with Europe is probably you know, a larger 359 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 5: you know, impediment to what they're trying to do, and 360 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 5: that there still is now this new conditioning in the 361 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 5: market where instead of like increasing the rhetoric at the highs, 362 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 5: you know, Trump is capitulated back into Trump one point zero, 363 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 5: which is like, you know, run hot, right, he's now 364 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 5: and they are best in himself with the headlines out 365 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 5: at the end of the day, they're they're trying to 366 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 5: squeeze this thing higher, and financial conditions are easing. The 367 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 5: dollar is moving lower. Long in deals started rallying, ironically 368 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 5: because the market is sniffing, you know, a dubvish turn 369 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 5: within the Fed, you know, and including recent comments from 370 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 5: people that I don't think would have anticipated necessarily outside 371 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 5: of Waller who's auditioning for the FED job. And you know, 372 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 5: why are they beginning to turn like that? Yes, there's 373 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 5: a normalization dynamic with regards to wear inflation is now 374 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 5: we think Jerome Powell is already at two dots ur 375 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 5: you know, for the end of the year, and there's 376 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 5: just this modest turn, but they're turning for a reason. 377 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 5: They're turning because you know, quits rates and claims, you know, 378 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 5: are starting to get a little wonky. And as I said, 379 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 5: the whole American economic miracle goes wrong when the consumer cracks, 380 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 5: and the consumer cracks is what you know becomes of 381 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 5: you know, the labor market, and that's starting to look 382 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 5: you know, precarious about. So I think I don't think 383 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 5: it's going to be a teariff head line necessarily. I 384 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 5: think it's going to be you know, good old fashioned 385 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 5: data and nasty NFP print. Now that type of a thing. 386 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 5: Is that an acute risk? 387 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 2: Now? 388 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,239 Speaker 5: Probably not, probably, you know safe to say, you know, 389 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 5: within by August, you know, we could be getting spicy. 390 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 5: And I think there's real delta, not just of like 391 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 5: the first cut in September. But you know, if that happens, 392 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 5: you know, it's not just going to be you know, 393 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 5: twenty five BIPs, right. 394 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 2: So everyone needs to keep shopping. 395 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 4: I guess, yeah, do your duty. 396 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 3: So the thing is, though, this is what bothers me 397 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 3: is everyone sees some of these dynamics. We talk about 398 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 3: the labor market weakness all the time. We talk about 399 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,120 Speaker 3: the fact that due to the tariffs and other factors, 400 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 3: the FED might be a little bit gun shy or 401 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 3: less inclined to cut like than it otherwise would have 402 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 3: given the set of economic conditions. And I think, like 403 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: Powell has sort of hinted at it before, that they're 404 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 3: conditions like we all could see this like and yet 405 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 3: like and yet people keep like it's sort of there's 406 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 3: something intellectually unsatisfying about. 407 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 4: The entire environments. 408 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 3: Well because like all this seems very true. They're all 409 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 3: this like this tagflation risk, there is going to be 410 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 3: a cost of tariff, there is this cyclical slowdown. 411 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 5: And yet you know, it goes back to those you know, 412 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 5: kind of counterintuitive observations that we started off with, you know, 413 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,680 Speaker 5: where you get so fixated on the like the left 414 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 5: side that you know, perversely, the corporate spending uncertainty becomes 415 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 5: the biggest source of demand for stocks. Yeah, you know, 416 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 5: and especially to the market structure stuff, which is just 417 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 5: what I always come back to, like once those puts 418 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 5: start roasting, because the worst case scenario doesn't happen, and 419 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 5: dealers got to start buying back that short delta, and 420 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 5: then people start squeezing that short delta's the market starts 421 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 5: rallying back, start buying short data calls, and dealers get 422 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 5: short those calls and we go short gammed the other way. 423 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 5: You know those flows, and you know, frankly, you know 424 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 5: a world of you know, not just this market structure 425 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 5: that feeds momentum right with leverage dt afs. You know 426 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 5: the prevalence of options trading and the tail wagging the dog. 427 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 5: And I don't even know if I can say tail 428 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 5: wagging the dog now, I just think it is the dog. 429 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 4: I like that. That's good. You know, options are the dog. 430 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 5: You know, those type of real and synthetic gamma effects 431 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 5: in the market are you know, very high impact. And 432 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 5: I think at the end of the day, a lot 433 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 5: of this is just about career preservation. And when you've 434 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 5: kind of missed badly on a call people, it feels good, 435 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 5: you know, in the macro space, like I, you know, 436 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 5: I'm super sensitive to this idea. You know, you feel 437 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 5: smart to make a bear call because it's rare still higher, 438 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 5: you know, when you run a back test, you know, 439 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 5: and back testing, I know it is like a four 440 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 5: letter word. But when you run a back test, you 441 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 5: know this this happens and contingent on this, and you 442 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 5: actually get negative forward returns over a series of average 443 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 5: you know, a real number of sample set. You know 444 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 5: it's an outlier. The problem is like sitting in a 445 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 5: negative stance. When again goes back to that point, people 446 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 5: are not really incentivized to see the world burn. You 447 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 5: know it's gonna be a tough thing, so you got 448 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 5: to be dynamic and pragmatic. I think about these things 449 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 5: all right. 450 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 2: Well, Charlie, let me just say thank you for giving 451 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 2: us a couple of square words to bleep out. It 452 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 2: really helps keep our producers on their toes. This has 453 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 2: been another episode at the Audlots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. 454 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 2: You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and. 455 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 3: I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 456 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 3: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Erman, dash Oll 457 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,439 Speaker 3: Bennett at Dashbot, and kill Brooks at Kilbrooks. For more 458 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 3: odd Loots content, go to bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, 459 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 3: where we have a daily newsletter and all of our 460 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 3: episodes and you can chat about these topics twenty four 461 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 3: to seven in our discord discord dot gg slash. 462 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 2: Odlines and if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like 463 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 2: it when we do these live recordings, then please leave 464 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 2: us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks 465 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 2: for listening.