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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe spect I'm saying it's a catch touch down.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to Wind. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabak if you want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel.

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Speaker 1: Today's episode week seven.

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Speaker 3: NFL recap and our Monday night football preview Bears and Patriots.

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Speaker 3: To wrap up week seven, we will also get to

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson's hot read for week eight just after midnight

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Speaker 3: on the East Coast. I mentioned his name, Brandon Anderson. Also,

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Speaker 3: Jill Gallant joined me. Brendan Glassheim. We are your usual

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Speaker 3: crew for the recap show. Thanks for joining us as

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Speaker 3: always were often running. We've kind of grown here. Symmetry

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Speaker 3: and chemistry, all those good, you know, uniting words, and

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Speaker 3: here we are.

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Speaker 1: But I don't really feel like the football is all

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Speaker 1: that unifying these days.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it was a tough week I think for

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Speaker 3: betters across the board, but it's hard to like get

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Speaker 3: around and behind this product.

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Speaker 1: We've watched here these first seven weeks or so it's been.

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Speaker 1: It has been some tough games to watch people.

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Speaker 3: But we're gonna dive into all the games, recap them all,

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Speaker 3: a little discussion on each game. Some games will have

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Speaker 3: more discussion than others, and then we'll get into the

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Speaker 3: hot read. I said that by the Money Night Football

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Speaker 3: preview and then the hot read to wrap up the show.

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Speaker 3: So we're gonna do a bigger picture topic after these

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Speaker 3: three games. I think you'll get the sense of what

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Speaker 3: we're talking about. But Brandon, let's dive right in. Tampa

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Speaker 3: Bay is an absolute mess Offensively. They lose twenty one

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Speaker 3: to three. Carolina was the biggest underdog of the year

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Speaker 3: across all NFL games this season. If he capitalized on that,

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Speaker 3: good for you, Carolina. Twenty one to three, they cover

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Speaker 3: the spread.

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Speaker 1: Is this fixable? In Tampa?

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Speaker 2: What's up? Man? I told people to bet on a

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Speaker 2: Bucks shutout, and that is not what I meant when

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Speaker 2: I said that. So, boy, I got this one way off.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay could barely even move the ball, no run game,

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Speaker 2: all these like little quick short nothing passes. They're giving

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Speaker 2: up yards to Dante Foreman and Chuba Hubber and PJ. Walker.

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Speaker 2: It's bad. It's really bad, like like it should have

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Speaker 2: been this bad. They did get a bombed to Mike

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Speaker 2: Evans easy touchdown, first drive of the game goes off

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Speaker 2: his hands. And it does feel a little bit to

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Speaker 2: me more like just one of those days than a

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Speaker 2: the sky is falling, the goat is dead, long lived

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Speaker 2: the King sort of day. I just feel like things

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Speaker 2: kind of spiraled away toward the end of the game.

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Speaker 2: But you know, you lost to what I thought was

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Speaker 2: the worst team in football. It's it's pretty ugly. They're

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Speaker 2: saying on TV today, is this the worst, you know,

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Speaker 2: low point for tom Brady's Tampa Bay tenure. I think

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Speaker 2: it might be the worst loss of Tom Brady's career.

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Speaker 2: He is now as a twelve or more point favorite,

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Speaker 2: which he was today, is now forty four and four

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Speaker 2: straight up and the losses were by two, three and three.

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Speaker 2: Lost twenty one to three today, So first time losing

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Speaker 2: four or five games since two thousand and two. It's uh,

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Speaker 2: it's ugly, and we got to see him again four

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Speaker 2: days from now.

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Speaker 3: Jill, we were talking about it before we started recording.

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Speaker 3: Eleven drives for the Bucks offense six punts, no touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: three points.

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Speaker 1: What do you think.

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Speaker 4: I think you guys are crazy if you think that

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Speaker 4: the worst loss was today.

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Speaker 2: The worst loss was.

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Speaker 4: The Super Bowl against the Giants in an undefeated season,

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Speaker 4: as like fourteen point favorites.

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Speaker 2: What are we talking about here?

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Speaker 4: Okay, sorry I'm off topic here, but that's just that

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Speaker 4: am talk blew my mind?

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Speaker 2: Well I'm gonna bring it up. It's gonna be center

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Speaker 2: and I have that in my notes. I do think

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Speaker 2: that is the one bigger loss. I think the biggest

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Speaker 2: loss of the Ravars season today.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Now, an alarming thing here, even just as a

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Speaker 4: better Bos have lost five games in a row against

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Speaker 4: the spread now, and they've got some teams coming up

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Speaker 4: here that I mean, we're going to talk about some

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Speaker 4: futures here in a second here, but I mean, they've

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Speaker 4: got the Ravens coming up, the Rams, the now formidable Seahawks,

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Speaker 4: you know, coming up here, and then just before they

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Speaker 4: go into their buy and I mean, I kind of

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Speaker 4: feel stupid to doubt the Bucks. I mean, they're still

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Speaker 4: leading the division at three and four, but that Mike

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Speaker 4: Evans passed Man just in the first start of the game,

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Speaker 4: that really felt like a momentum shift, and they just

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Speaker 4: couldn't get anything going for the rest of the game.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you would look at the stat line the

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Speaker 4: other side of the touchdowns and you'd think, Wow, Brady

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Speaker 4: threw a forty nine times. They actually looked kind of

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Speaker 4: good in some spots. But if you were watching the game,

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Speaker 4: not just looking at the box score, that offense looked broken.

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Speaker 4: So we're gonna talk a little bit more about the

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Speaker 4: Bucks here in a second, but I mean, not really

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Speaker 4: much to take away from that other than just it

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Speaker 4: was not his day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, stay tuned. There's an actionable angle on what we'll

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Speaker 3: get to. Let's go to Packers' Commanders, another team. You'll

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Speaker 3: get the trend here, folks. Another team that has expectations

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Speaker 3: because of the quarterback and what they have going on

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Speaker 3: there with the coach who we think has promised running game.

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Speaker 3: But you lose DeVante Adams and it's clearly having an

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Speaker 3: impact on this offense. Green Bay loses outright in Washington

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Speaker 3: twenty three twenty one, So Washington covers plus four and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 1: Brandon, how do you speak on this game from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective? What comes to mind?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the surprise. Here is how not surprising

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Speaker 2: the result was. We kind of saw this sort of

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Speaker 2: script coming with Washington. You run the ball on green

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Speaker 2: Bay that a one hundred and sixty six yards rushing

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Speaker 2: green Bay can run the ball. That was supposed to

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Speaker 2: be the thing You're gonna get rid of DeVante Adams

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Speaker 2: because we're gonna run the ball and we're gonna defend.

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Speaker 2: Green Bay can't run the ball. Green Bay cannot defend.

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Speaker 2: So this, honestly, they lost by two. This was not

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Speaker 2: that close. Washington threw a pick six mister field goal

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Speaker 2: one of four in the red zone, and otherwise still

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Speaker 2: dominated the overall points, you know, like one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty two yards more than the Packers. They're in twenty

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Speaker 2: five extra plays. Washington, a team that is not good

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Speaker 2: at all, dominated a green Bay. So I'm a lot

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Speaker 2: more worried about green Bay than Tampa. Both are three

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Speaker 2: and four, But I don't see a way forward for

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Speaker 2: the Packers that you look on the field. Washington is

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Speaker 2: the best playmakers, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, better than

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Speaker 2: anything green Bay has to offer offensively right now. And

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Speaker 2: that is pretty rough. So I am officially worried about

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Speaker 2: the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Okay, what do you think, Jill as far as what

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Speaker 1: they mean?

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Speaker 3: Hey, good for you, by the way, you hit on

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Speaker 3: Washington plus four and a half the Best Bets episode

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Speaker 3: from last week, and it kind of played into your

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Speaker 3: analysis on the pick.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the Packers offense has just been horrible.

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Speaker 4: I mean, eighteen point three points per game. That's the

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Speaker 4: worst since two thousand and six. They went zero for

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Speaker 4: six on third downs. That's the first time that a Packers'

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Speaker 4: offense has done that since nineteen ninety nine. So there's

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Speaker 4: a little bit of an issue here. And this is

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Speaker 4: also the first time that they've lost three in a

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Speaker 4: row in the matt with Floor Era, Like, I think

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Speaker 4: that's the one thing that's actually kind of surprising if

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Speaker 4: you think about how much success they've had regular season wise,

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Speaker 4: But three straight games as a fave combined fifteen points

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Speaker 4: as a favorite, and they were playing against like Daniel Jones,

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson and Taylor Heineke led teams like like this

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Speaker 4: is not good, you know, And I even said, like

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Speaker 4: we said, we did the recap pod it right after

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Speaker 4: the Jets game, and I was like, this team's done

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Speaker 4: like I would not trust them to win, like to

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Speaker 4: go far into the playoffs. I think it's just a

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Speaker 4: little bit more of what we're seeing here. But you know,

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Speaker 4: I saw some people, the Packers fans, They're like, you know,

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Speaker 4: last time that Rogers lost to FedEx Field, you know,

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Speaker 4: he just said, relax, we're gonna run the table.

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Speaker 2: And they went on to win six in a row.

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Speaker 4: And it's like, yeah, this is not the same team,

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Speaker 4: not even close to the same team from a roster standpoint.

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Speaker 4: They might be able to go six and four the

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Speaker 4: rest of the way and make the playoffs. But I

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Speaker 4: don't see it, can't.

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Speaker 2: See I did. I did the relax thing after a

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Speaker 2: week one, and I actually bought a Packers Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: to get back then. And part of the reason was

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Speaker 2: this three game stretch that just finished. I said, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna get those games, easy games, Giants, Jets, Washington, and

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Speaker 2: they'll be coasting into the Bisonting. Pretty jelly, you said

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Speaker 2: three first three game lose streak for Laflour. This is

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Speaker 2: the first two game losing streak. They only lost three

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Speaker 2: games the entire season all the other season under Laflur

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Speaker 2: if I remember, right, So this is a sky is

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Speaker 2: falling spot for them, and it is not an r

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Speaker 2: E lax spot. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, this part of the schedule was built as a

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Speaker 3: shield for Matt Lafleur to hide what is now starting

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Speaker 3: to break down this shield, which is he racks up

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Speaker 3: wins in that division against the Lions and the Bears,

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Speaker 3: and it covers up a lot of stuff. But they

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Speaker 3: tend to get exposed against good teams historically. Now they're

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Speaker 3: getting exposed against bad teams because it feels as if, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he needs some he needs more pieces to work with,

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Speaker 3: he needs more high end talent. Kansas City and San

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Speaker 3: Francisco had the biggest type of the day, biggest type

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Speaker 3: of the week coming in because a Super Bowl rematch,

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Speaker 3: but a few years ago of course, with McCaffrey being

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Speaker 3: in San Francisco, big news of the week in terms

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Speaker 3: of the trade market.

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Speaker 1: But this is a loss.

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Speaker 3: I guess you can compartmentalize with San Francisco and be like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: you lost to a good team. Kansas City off loss

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Speaker 3: at home, small favorite. I think folks right in on

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Speaker 3: San Francisco based on the money. But Brandon in this game,

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Speaker 3: I think Kansas City, it's another demonstration of Tyreek Kuek.

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Speaker 1: I think we're all right without this guy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Chiefs dropped forty four points on

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Speaker 2: this defense that we thought was maybe the best defense

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. Now they're missing guys. And that's the

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Speaker 2: thing we've been saying for a couple of weeks now

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Speaker 2: and we saw that play out today, is that the

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Speaker 2: forty and ers are not going to be able right

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Speaker 2: now to win with just defense and Jimmy do enough things.

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Speaker 2: The Chiefs scored thirty in the second half. They averaged

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Speaker 2: nine yards of play for the entire game, and that

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Speaker 2: is the Chiefs thing they do sometimes, but not against

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Speaker 2: the best defense in the league, and like you said,

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Speaker 2: without Tyreek Hill. So I thought this was especially about

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs, but it showed us just how much those

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Speaker 2: Niners injuries are adding up on the defense, especially Chiefs

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Speaker 2: average for the game over a half epa per play.

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Speaker 2: That means every time the Chiefs ran two plays, they

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Speaker 2: gained a point on the forty nine Ers for the

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Speaker 2: entire game. So that was the big takeaway for me.

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Speaker 2: The other one is, thus on one side, Pat Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo reminded us why you

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Speaker 2: can't get too excited about the Niners because you see

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Speaker 2: the stats. Three hundred yards two touchdowns seems fine, but

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Speaker 2: he had interception in the end zone. You can't do

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Speaker 2: that and give away points against the Chiefs. And he

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Speaker 2: had one of those awful safeties where he just had

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Speaker 2: no idea about the guy coming from his backside. And

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Speaker 2: you can't take this team seriously to go on a

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Speaker 2: bigger run. I learned my lesson last year with our

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers. Future is I won't do it again.

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Speaker 1: Joe, what do you think from this game?

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Speaker 3: Kansas City and San Francisco, And then we'll lead into

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Speaker 3: our bigger conversation about those three games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm not going to penalize San Francisco

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Speaker 4: as much for this loss in comparison to losing to

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Speaker 4: like a Panthers team or a Commander's team.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, I think Branda hit it on the.

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Speaker 4: Head about that I int by Garoppolo because that I

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Speaker 4: t at the end of the first half like that

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Speaker 4: was pretty much a momentum changer because Casey got the

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Speaker 4: ball right off the second half and they were set

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Speaker 4: to score, and you can't really trade field goals or

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Speaker 4: turn it over in the end zone if you want

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Speaker 4: to beat a team like Kansas City from an offensive standpoint,

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Speaker 4: because I mean, even in the second half they showed

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Speaker 4: they were like it was like third and twelve and

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Speaker 4: then they complete this long bomb to Marcus Beldon Stanley

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Speaker 4: gout of nowhere and that just pretty much allowed another

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Speaker 4: touchdown to come right through. But yeah, I think Jimmy

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Speaker 4: is still kind of the weak point on this team,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think it is really a shock to

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Speaker 4: see them lose like this. I think this isn't the

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Speaker 4: team that we're going to be thinking of going into

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Speaker 4: January as it stands right now, and when we talk

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Speaker 4: about their Super Bowl EIDs, I think that'll show why.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so we mentioned San Fran lost straight up Washington

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Speaker 3: part of me. Green Bay lost to Washington, and then

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Speaker 3: Carolina thumps Tampa Bay. So the three teams that were favored,

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Speaker 3: the three favorites to come out of the conference, Tampa,

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles, who was on the buy in Green Bay respectively, one, two,

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Speaker 3: three are all in disarray right now. Tampa is three

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Speaker 3: and four, Niners are three and four. They're right there

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Speaker 3: with the Rams to win the division anyway, So they

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Speaker 3: were up there on those odds as well, and we

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Speaker 3: didn't really know what the quarterback was yet.

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Speaker 1: Blah blah blah.

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Speaker 3: So that's why it was a little murky preseason. So

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Speaker 3: point being, how do we look at the conference?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 3: I know we got Philadelphia for sure, but Brandon, and

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Speaker 3: let's we move this along.

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Speaker 1: How do you make this actionable?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 3: When you look at the conference, Philly stands out, but

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Speaker 3: then after that.

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Speaker 1: It's like, what do I do here?

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Speaker 3: So knowing all that with these teams, what are your

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Speaker 3: suggestions as far as how to bet maybe what not

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Speaker 3: to bet?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not betting futures on any of the four

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Speaker 2: teams you just talked about right now, the Box, the Packers,

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Speaker 2: the Niners, the Rams. That was our final four in

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Speaker 2: the NFC last year. I'm not saying that they can't

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Speaker 2: get there again. I am saying that right now, I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna bet the futures because they're still getting a

289
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Speaker 2: little respect from the Bucks even as they reopened tonight.

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Speaker 2: The prices are down. The problem is the whole conference

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Speaker 2: sucks outside of appearing the NFC East. So it's not like,

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Speaker 2: oh the Bucks are bad now, So knock their odds down. Well,

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Speaker 2: so are all the other teams we thought were gonna

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Speaker 2: be good. So you can't really knock all of their

295
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Speaker 2: odds down. Somebody has to still have odds there, so

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Speaker 2: I don't think I can do futures here. I might

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Speaker 2: eventually look to see about a Niners Division odd The

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Speaker 2: Bucks actually saw their Division odds increase today because they're

299
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Speaker 2: still tied for the lead and the Falcons lost, But

300
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Speaker 2: I certainly would not take that action. I'm seeing minus

301
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Speaker 2: two to seventy at FanDuel. That's seventy three percent. There's

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Speaker 2: no way that team is seventy three percent to win

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Speaker 2: the division. So I don't mind betting maybe Tampa or

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Speaker 2: San Fran in these upcoming weeks. I will look to

305
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Speaker 2: play them in the right spot. I definitely don't want

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Speaker 2: futures on any of those four teams. Jill, are you

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Speaker 2: Are you in on anything with either of those teams?

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Speaker 2: Not with the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: And again the price shift that we saw the pregame

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Speaker 4: Bucks are fourteen to one.

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Speaker 2: To win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: It only moves to sixteen off of that loss, because,

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Speaker 4: as you just said, strated, they still pretty much have

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Speaker 4: a straight line path to win that division. And we

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Speaker 4: just talked about those three games, the Ravens, Seahawks, and

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Speaker 4: the Rams. It would not be shocking to watch the

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Speaker 4: Bucks go three and zero and on those games and

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Speaker 4: then go into the buy. It would not Nobody would

319
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Speaker 4: be like, WHOA, that wasn't what I planned to see happen.

320
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Speaker 4: And then you know they're sitting there pretty at six

321
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Speaker 4: and four in the division going into the buy. So again,

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Speaker 4: not really the best price right now on the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: I do think that the forty nine ers, it's telling

324
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Speaker 4: that their odds didn't move at all despite this loss.

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Speaker 4: They were fourteen to one before the game, and they

326
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Speaker 4: were fourteen to one after the game. So I think

327
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Speaker 4: books are still showing that they have that strength and

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Speaker 4: that you know, as McCaffrey gets more accustomed to this

329
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Speaker 4: defense or offense rather, and the more guys are starting

330
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Speaker 4: to come back, especially with some of their teams that

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Speaker 4: they have on the schedule, I think they're still going

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Speaker 4: to be in a good position to win that division.

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Speaker 4: But some of these prices, though it makes sense, like

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Speaker 4: right now, like the Packers are plus four to ninety

335
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Speaker 4: to win that division. I don't think i've seen their

336
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,840
Speaker 4: odds above plus two hundred in years, you know, to

337
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Speaker 4: win the NFC Nor and then uh, you know, the

338
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Speaker 4: Niners sitting at plus one thirty to win the NFC West.

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Speaker 4: I'm not really ready to jump on that, but I

340
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Speaker 4: do feel like if they win this upcoming week and

341
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Speaker 4: then end up playing the Rams again and then beating

342
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Speaker 4: them again, that's pretty much going to seal that division

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Speaker 4: in my opinion. So if you feel like the Niners

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Speaker 4: are going to take the division, maybe now is the

345
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Speaker 4: best time to grab it.

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Speaker 2: At plus one thirty.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there's your NFC landscape.

348
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Speaker 3: And again the odds on this podcast are brought to

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Speaker 3: you by the Fanduels Sportsbook. So just because you see

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Speaker 3: these teams falling apart, yeah, let's go.

351
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Speaker 1: Bet them now. Well, maybe wait a second, because the

352
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Speaker 1: market needs to react better.

353
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Speaker 3: Look at Tampa, like Tampa could lose Thursday for crying

354
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Speaker 3: out loud to Baltimore again and then you get a

355
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Speaker 3: better number, like excusing an example. So good stuff, Fellas,

356
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Speaker 3: that's good. I think it's it's definitely worth discussing with

357
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Speaker 3: these teams being as good as they were last year

358
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Speaker 3: and in previous years, especially Tampa and Green Bay.

359
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Speaker 2: Brandon Jilli. You you won't have to say it because

360
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Speaker 2: you got your Cowboys sweater on today, but I'll do

361
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Speaker 2: it for you. I think outside of Philadelphia, look, the

362
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Speaker 2: Eagles are number one. I think the Cowboys are the

363
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Speaker 2: second best team in the right now, it's not the

364
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Speaker 2: Box or the Niners or all the teams we're talking about.

365
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Speaker 2: A defense is really good. Dak Prescott is back. I'm

366
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Speaker 2: going to shake off the rust. If I was betting

367
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Speaker 2: an NFC future, that's the one i'd play right now.

368
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,640
Speaker 2: Dallas right now plus seventeen hundred do win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: The NFC odds are only I think at plus six hundred,

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Speaker 2: so that dropped. It was seven hundred before the day.

371
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Speaker 2: They were the fifth NFC favorite. They're now second favor

372
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Speaker 2: in the NFC, but only dropped a six hundred. I

373
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Speaker 2: can't get behind six hundred to win the NFC versus

374
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Speaker 2: seventeen hundred and Super Bowl. They probably wouldn't be the favorite,

375
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Speaker 2: but not that much one underdog. So I think Dallas

376
00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: plus seventeen hundred. They're going to play the Bears next

377
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Speaker 2: week and then go into the bye week and get

378
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 2: Dak even healthier. This defense is legit and as good.

379
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 2: It's just about anybody's right now. So I think your

380
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 2: Cowboys show it's in a wide open NFC. They keep

381
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Speaker 2: playing this well and the trajectory goes up from here.

382
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Speaker 2: I like him at plus seventeen hundred, this might be

383
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:55,160
Speaker 2: a good time for.

384
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Speaker 4: It's like a backhanded compliment. It's like, as long as

385
00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 4: there's no weather competition, cowboy are wide open to win

386
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Speaker 4: the NFC.

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Speaker 2: That's good.

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Speaker 1: It's very good. So Brandon, he's not thanking you now,

389
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 1: I guess after that, Oh.

390
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,119
Speaker 2: Thank you. I do appreciate that. I always take any support.

391
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Speaker 2: I can't.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's zip through the rest of these games,

393
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Speaker 1: because let's be honest, they weren't really great.

394
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Speaker 3: I think we've kind of highlighted now that the league

395
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Speaker 3: is having a down year, but a lot of passing

396
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Speaker 3: and there have been a lot of drops. I've got

397
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,719
Speaker 3: a number on that we can get to later on.

398
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Speaker 3: But you know, hey, give Cincinnati credit. Okay, they come

399
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Speaker 3: out Atlanta undefeated against the spread.

400
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Speaker 1: That was well documented.

401
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 3: Coming in, Everyone's like, oh, we got to take the Falcons, right,

402
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 3: there'll be seven and no.

403
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 1: So that became very public knowledge.

404
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,880
Speaker 3: I think this week and a lot of folks got

405
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 3: in on Atlanta too late. They don't cover for the

406
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 3: first time this year, Brandon thirty five seventeen. Cincinnati got

407
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Speaker 3: off to a really hot start in this game.

408
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 2: They did twenty four of their first twenty nine plays

409
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 2: were passing plays. This is the thing, Zach Taylor. Do

410
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,199
Speaker 2: the passing plays, early downs, and what happens on those plays.

411
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Speaker 2: That's four drives. They scored twenty eight points, scored touchdowns

412
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Speaker 2: right off the bat, and just ran up the score.

413
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,119
Speaker 2: And it was done immediately because the Falcons passed the

414
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 2: ball like once a quarter, so you're not coming back

415
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Speaker 2: from twenty eight right off the bat. This is the

416
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Speaker 2: thing to do, Zach Taylor. We said this after the

417
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Speaker 2: Jets game when the Bengals played the Jets. Oh hey,

418
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,360
Speaker 2: look the Bengals remembered who they are. Well, we'll see

419
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 2: if it holds up other games. But this is how

420
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 2: good the team can be because the defense is good

421
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 2: and the passing game is good if they actually do

422
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 2: the passing game. So this was a blowout. This was just,

423
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 2: I know, thirty five to seventeen. It wasn't that close.

424
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Speaker 2: Five hundred plus yards for the Bengals, barely two hundred

425
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Speaker 2: for the Falcons. I bet the Falcons and this was

426
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 2: it was awful. The Bengals just out talented them, and

427
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 2: they always do because they're very talented. But Zach Taylor

428
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 2: actually had a game plan today and we just talked

429
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Speaker 2: about Dallas. To me and I had a Twitter discussion

430
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 2: with folks just right before we came on here, who's

431
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Speaker 2: the best team in the NFL outside of the Big three, Bill,

432
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Eagles. To me, it's either the Bengals or

433
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Speaker 2: the Cowboys. I think the Bengals are the better team.

434
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Speaker 2: We saw those teams play each other earlier in the year.

435
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 2: It didn't go that way. But I think the Bengals,

436
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 2: the way they're playing with their defense, the way they

437
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Speaker 2: adjust it halftime, and if they actually do the thing

438
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 2: they did today and pass the ball, I think the

439
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 2: Bengals actually might be even better than they were on

440
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 2: last year's Super Bowl a run, and they're a team

441
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: I'm looking to buy in on now. They really show

442
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: who they are today at their best.

443
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 3: Plus twenty one hundred to win the Super Bowl right

444
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: now on Vandals sportsbook. They're right behind those Dallas Cowboys,

445
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 3: but you can understand the drop off because of the

446
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 3: conference they play. They got to up against Buffalo and

447
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 3: Kansas City in all likelihood to get back to the

448
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: Super Bowl.

449
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: Jill Giants, Jaguars. All the sharps are on the Jaguars

450
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: this week. Yes, I mean it just looked. It looked promising.

451
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 3: It was one of our best bets from last Thursday's episode.

452
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, Jacksonville's coming out strong here. Giants, you're

453
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 3: a cute story. But what the hell I mean, the

454
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,120
Speaker 3: Jags are. We'll get to another team that's like this too.

455
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,160
Speaker 3: Like they just maybe it's that warm weather. I don't

456
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 3: know what it is, but like they get in their

457
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 3: own way and the Giants they're hot.

458
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 1: Giants are hot.

459
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 4: It's the Luck Rankings. Yeah, they continue their run of luck.

460
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 4: They are six and one, Nick given and our data

461
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 4: team here at Action Network, they do a Luck Rankings

462
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 4: every week and it's always a great read just to

463
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 4: see kind of how teams how they got to where

464
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 4: they are. Maybe there's some trends that we could buy

465
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 4: off of that. But honestly, the Jags just nineteen consecutive

466
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 4: losses now against the NFC since twenty and twelve, four

467
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 4: and forty against the NFC, Like that just blows my

468
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 4: mind when I think about that, of how many games

469
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:39,479
Speaker 4: we have seen in that stretch.

470
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: But really I want to say today was luck.

471
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,639
Speaker 4: But really in the fourth quarter, guys like Saquon and

472
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones, they just took over like you don't really

473
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 4: see a running back and quarterback both have one hundred

474
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 4: yards rushing in a game like usually that's a Lamar

475
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 4: Jackson recipe.

476
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 2: So just I didn't think luck had much to do

477
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 2: with that.

478
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 4: But luck is going to be probably running out soon

479
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 4: because they've got injuries and starters to their left tackle,

480
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 4: they're starting tight end their cornerback one, so they're looking

481
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 4: at some serious injuries coming up here.

482
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 2: So the luck might be running out here soon.

483
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 3: Brandon, the Ravens get there twenty three to twenty to

484
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: defeat the Cleveland Browns. But the Browns cover the spread

485
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,959
Speaker 3: plus six and a half coming into this game, so

486
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 3: Cleveland didn't look all that impressive the week before. But

487
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson didn't have to throw the ball all that

488
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 3: much in this game. He ran the ball ten times,

489
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 3: just shy of sixty yards on the ground, but Lamar

490
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 3: only threw sixteen passes. He completed nine of the sixteen.

491
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 3: How do you look at this game like the Ravens

492
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 3: just know how to take care of their their ish

493
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 3: and close out a game that's close but not cover.

494
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:41,679
Speaker 1: I don't know.

495
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm very whelmed by the Ravens. I'm not underwhelmed

496
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 2: or overwhelmed. I'm just whelmed by them. They got the

497
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: job done, they got to win, but it sure looked

498
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 2: like they were trying to blow their fourth double digit

499
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 2: lead of the season. Like we've already seen this over

500
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 2: and over. But Browns to the rescue. The Browns just

501
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 2: can't help, but brownsing. They got third and two and

502
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 2: they're basically in the range to kick the fueld goal

503
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: to tie, which by the way gets us to forty

504
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: six and hits the over if you're on that side.

505
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 2: And then they get a touchdown, call it back an

506
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 2: offensive pass inter appearance, so ten yards back, then a

507
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 2: fall start for five more yards. Then of course they

508
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 2: missed the sixty yard field goal, and that's about it.

509
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 2: So tough break if you're on the over. Tough break

510
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 2: if you had the Browns money line. Not really impressive

511
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 2: by the Ravens. They only had two hundred and fifty

512
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 2: four yards. Four yards a game against a Browns defense

513
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: that has not been good this year. So I'm a

514
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 2: little worried about the team. Obviously, I like the Bengals.

515
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: I'm feeling less great about the Ravens right now. You

516
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: mentioned they didn't have to pass very much. The Ravens

517
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 2: were lighting it up in the air the first few

518
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 2: weeks this season, and it's really falling off for the

519
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 2: last month. So something I've got my on for sure.

520
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 3: Keep an eye on them at the deadline. Let's see

521
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 3: if they do something in the deadline, maybe a weapon.

522
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:56,360
Speaker 1: Or a receiver.

523
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 3: We'll see. Green Bay has been rumored to be on

524
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 3: Claypool from Pittsburgh. See see if they go add something

525
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 3: for Lamar and that offense. All right, frozen pizza time.

526
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 2: It's not delivery, and it's not exactly pizza either.

527
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: It's almost pizza.

528
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 2: It's very nearly pizza, but not quite pizza.

529
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 4: That's practically pizza in every way except for a few

530
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 4: key ones.

531
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: Come on, dig in.

532
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 3: You know, we probably could have got to frozen pizzas faster,

533
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 3: like every week.

534
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: But let's go to Pittsburgh and Miami.

535
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 3: And by the way, those that are new to the

536
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 3: show Frozen Pizzas, Like these games are just like you know,

537
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: you scramble in for your dinner. It's Sunday night, late night,

538
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 3: You're watching Pittsburgh Miami.

539
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 1: Up. Need something to eat. Let me just throw this on,

540
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: let me just throw this in the oven, because what

541
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: the hell? I need something to do. I need something

542
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: to eat tonight.

543
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 3: And Pittsburgh Miami kind of well promising start a lot

544
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 3: of points. I'm like, whoa, here we go. But Tua

545
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 3: wanted to give the game away. Kenny Pickett did give

546
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 3: the game away.

547
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: Brandon.

548
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 3: I mean, good for the Steelers. They cover, but Mike Tomlin,

549
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 3: he's back covering as a dog.

550
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rara Tomlin gets another cover here. Somebody got to

551
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 2: be all in for everybody to be all in. Really

552
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: thought they might pull off the win here for Brian Flores,

553
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 2: but couldn't quite get over the line story of the game. Interceptions.

554
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: The Steelers dropped four interceptions this game. They could have

555
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 2: had a short field had given their offense a chance.

556
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: Then can you pick it through three of his own,

557
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: including two near the end of the game. You know,

558
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: I like what I'm seeing from the rookie, but he's

559
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: a rookie, he's gonna make those mistakes, and I felt

560
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: like the Dolphins are going to run away and hide.

561
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 2: The first couple drives like they went right down the field.

562
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: They're so fast and there's running right past them. And

563
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 2: then Tom Win of these underdogs bots just finds a

564
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 2: way to hang around. So you know, they kept it interesting.

565
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 2: No points the second half, So sorry if you're holding

566
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 2: on for some over coverage here, but yeah, it was

567
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 2: entertaining enough. We got got a little fun for our

568
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: Sunday night frozen pizza.

569
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 1: Drop rate is super high in the NFL this year.

570
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 3: There are there are ten teams in the NFL this

571
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 3: season that have a drop rate of seven percent or greater.

572
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: Last year, they were only three teams through all season

573
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: that had a six percent drop great or greater.

574
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: So it's it's something. It's it's a passing league. That

575
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: makes sense. All right, let's go to Troy and Dallas. Joe,

576
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: what do you got for us here?

577
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 4: Cow Boys defense? Is Brandon alluded to man. They won

578
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 4: this game two interceptions and two fumbles on Jared goff

579
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 4: uh Dan Campbell now over eleven and one straight up

580
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 4: on the road as the Lions coach. But they're six

581
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 4: and five against the spread. Most of that was done

582
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: from last year on their nice little run there. But

583
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 4: the Lions now, guys been without a touchdown since the

584
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: five minute mark in the fourth quarter of Week four,

585
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 4: So I think we can put the rest. The Lions

586
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 4: are this offensive juggernaut narrative at least for one more week.

587
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: All right, Brandon, ready, here we go. See Hawks do

588
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: it with me?

589
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,479
Speaker 2: Okay, Hawks, Hee Hawks, Seattle Island.

590
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: Let's go go ahead, Island, go do it? Talk about them?

591
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, Seattle thirty seven twenty three took it to the Chargers.

592
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 2: They had this from the beginning. They went up seventeen

593
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 2: to nothing, and they just they put it away. They

594
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 2: like Gino. Smith tried to peet down his leg a

595
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 2: couple times. He's got to take those sacks. He had

596
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 2: a couple near interceptions. But the Chargers didn't look good

597
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: in this game. Justin Herbert numbers not great. Mike Williams

598
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 2: left Hurricane and Allen was back, but only two catches.

599
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 2: Jac Jackson, now the big free agent we're excited about.

600
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: He supposed he has a serious injury and he's not

601
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 2: been good anyway. Charges are four and too, but I'm

602
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: a little underwhelmed with them in Seattle Seahawks Division leading,

603
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 2: come on out Seattle Island, feeling it out here and

604
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: making a lot of Seattle money and guys. Next week

605
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 2: we have the Frozen Pizza Eist game of Week eight. Well,

606
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: we all would have thought before this season, Giant Seahawks

607
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: a huge NFC showdown. We'll be talking about that one.

608
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 2: I'm sure.

609
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 3: Okay Hawks right now are minus two and a half

610
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 3: at home for that game, and they win again thirty

611
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: seven to twenty three. They cover plus four and a half.

612
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 3: Houston in Vegas, Jill Houston was hanging around early but

613
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 3: then it was kind of a scare with Derek Carr.

614
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 3: But Vegas Hassion that we've seen glimpses of.

615
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: But they put together a full game here against the Texans.

616
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 4: I know you would think that their record would be

617
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 4: better than two and four. I think that's the one

618
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 4: thing where you think like how good this team is

619
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 4: and how good they can look kind of underrated in

620
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: a way because they're each loss is by a combined

621
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 4: fourteen points Chiefs, Cardinals, Titans, Chargers to out of those

622
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 4: four I guess maybe wach one doesn't look like the other.

623
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 4: But again, this game kind of just went the script.

624
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: I mean, this is the thirtieth ranked rush defense DVOA

625
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 4: by the Texans, and Josh Jacobs went to town and

626
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 4: our own Sean Kerner had his best bet was Josh

627
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 4: Jacobs over seventeen and a half rush attempts and he

628
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,719
Speaker 4: has twenty with three touchdowns. So that pretty much sealed it.

629
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 4: And it was good to see the Raiders actually execute

630
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter because a lot of those losses

631
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 4: that I alluded to, that's.

632
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 2: Pretty much the reason why they didn't get those wins.

633
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: Brandon, once again, the Titans own the Colts in the

634
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 3: second meeting of the season.

635
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: So Titan's get a big win. They're now four and two.

636
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: They're two to zero against Indy, who is the team

637
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 3: now just right behind them? Nineteen ten your final Titans

638
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 3: cover two and a half. Mike Rabel five and zero

639
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: now off of bye against the spread. That trend continued today.

640
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, the trend continued in the first half. Trend continued.

641
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: That was my biggest bat of the weekend, and that

642
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: was easy money. Titans thirteen to nothing at the half.

643
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan back with yet another interception, multiple interceptions again

644
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 2: picked six in the first half. Colts don't get anything

645
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 2: going in the first half. They don't show up on offense.

646
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 2: I guess the defense was all right. They held the tenant.

647
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,719
Speaker 2: The Titans only six in the first half, but they

648
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 2: just didn't get anything going here. The Titans weren't even

649
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 2: really that good in this game. Tanniell had one hundred

650
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 2: and thirty two yards left the game. We got some

651
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: Malik Willis in here. I was like, oh man, are

652
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 2: the Titans about to be four and two with Malik

653
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,479
Speaker 2: Willis going forward? I was drooling about getting back in

654
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 2: on some Jags, even maybe a little bit. I gotta

655
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 2: tell you, the Titans play the Texans next week. I

656
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,239
Speaker 2: might just be ayeing just a little bit. What are

657
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 2: the Texans division? Ods looked like, Guys, I don't believe

658
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: in this Titans team. They're four and two, but the

659
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: Colt stink and the division looks very winnable if somebody

660
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: can just catch up to these mediocre Titans. But in

661
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 2: this division, that might be an off.

662
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 3: Texans plus five thousand on the Fanduels Sports book. Let's

663
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 3: go okay, that's really smelly. Wow, Okay, yeah, have a

664
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: nice hit on the first half. Nice work and you know,

665
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 3: Jill next year, if we're here doing this podcast again,

666
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: this is the three of us.

667
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: I'm very if Matt Ryan's even in the league anymore.

668
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 3: I'm curious if you get any plus money on that

669
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: guy starting week one.

670
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: I feel like that those days are over.

671
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 3: To throw an interception that is sorry, that was the

672
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 3: to specify the bet. But those days are over.

673
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, no're going We're not going to see that anymore.

674
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 4: I doubt that you'll ever see it in a game

675
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 4: in his career. He is going the way of Matt rule.

676
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: As they say, since.

677
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: You did invent the frozen pizza bit, for this podcast,

678
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: you have the luxury of discussing Denver and the Jets.

679
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 3: Good for the Jets five and two, but just another

680
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,719
Speaker 3: freaking rock fight with the Broncos involved.

681
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Jets cover and when the line flipped when

682
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 4: Brett Rippon came in, you kind of figured that this

683
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 4: was the way it was ago. But this game, honestly, guys,

684
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 4: not even a frozen pizza like this is just a

685
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 4: sad you know, one of those like little box lunchables

686
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 4: pizzas that you can buy that ye by yourself.

687
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 2: On a Friday night in the dark, like it was

688
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: just sad like. It was one of those kind of game.

689
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 1: It was a lunchable.

690
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: It didn't even have like the cool caprice sun or

691
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: like the butterfinger or the crunch bar. You just got

692
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: that slab of crusty bread and water watery.

693
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 4: Sauce, something that are little circles that kind of look

694
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 4: like pepperoni, but you don't even trust that it's meat,

695
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 4: you know. And then I mean just the little sprinkles

696
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 4: of just the white cheese. You don't even know if

697
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 4: it's mozzarella.

698
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: Sure smells like pizza. That was their intention, just eat

699
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: some hell.

700
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 4: No either way inside of Brett ripponbe a little bit taller.

701
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 4: Guys like I didn't really notice the difference in this

702
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 4: Broncos offense. It was pretty much just as an epp

703
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 4: as it was any other week and just kind of

704
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 4: reminded me of a good will hunting quote.

705
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: You dropped one hundred and fifty grand on a fucking education,

706
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: You could have gone for a dollar fifty and late

707
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: chatges at the public library.

708
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: This excellent analysis of it. There wasn't even much foot

709
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: in there, but it was great, quite good.

710
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 4: No but I mean, at the end of the day, really,

711
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 4: from a betting standpoint, you just got to four one

712
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 4: out for the Breeze Hall betters like especially for Offensive

713
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 4: Rookie of the Year because he took off for a big.

714
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: Blast touchdown right in the first half, looked.

715
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 4: Amazing and now it's kind of looking like he might

716
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 4: be up with a torn acl So the guys behind

717
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 4: him that were Damian Pierce that he was at plus

718
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: five fifty before the game and Kenneth Walker who blew

719
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 4: up in the Seattle game as well, he was plus

720
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 4: eight fifty. Those guys are probably gonna launch to one

721
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 4: and two in candidacy for Offensive Rookie of the Year,

722
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: so I'd be taking a look at.

723
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: Them once again.

724
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 3: We are rewarded as football fans to see the Denver

725
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 3: Broncos in a standalone.

726
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: Game once again in the NFL.

727
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: They will be playing next Sunday morning in London against

728
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: the Jaguars, So congratulations.

729
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: You can watch more Denver Broncos football.

730
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 3: Denver Broncos so underdogs and favorites both get six wins

731
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 3: against the number today of the twelve games on Sunday,

732
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 3: Dog sixty one, forty five and one against the spread

733
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: through seven weeks. Brandon had a good note before the

734
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: pod started. Underdogs of three or More went sixth and

735
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: three today in mind, three points are more, that is,

736
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 3: three points are more, they went six and three today.

737
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 3: Underdogs Falcons finally go down as we discussed our Action Network,

738
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast that airs every Thursday, Best Bets.

739
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: Five and four.

740
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 3: Week seven finished above five hundred. Nice work by the

741
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: guys on Washington. That Tennessee first half was big, so

742
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 3: good work there fellas thirty four, twenty seven and two

743
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 3: through the first seven weeks. As a reminder, you can

744
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: follow along on the Action app by following both of

745
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 3: our accounts, the Sunday six Pack and Action Network NFL Picks.

746
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: And we bring all that up because we got some

747
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 3: stuff to talk about for the rest of week seven.

748
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 3: We got the Monday night game plus the hot read.

749
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 3: Let's start with Monday Night Patriots home to host the Bears.

750
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 3: Patriots are laying seven and a half. Brandon totals at

751
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: forty and a half, so Thursday night last week we

752
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 3: get a bunch of points seventy plus unders at night

753
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: unders in primetime. Are we going back to that and

754
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 3: do we need to wait on a key number. We're

755
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: not going to get there with the Patriots, no matter who.

756
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 1: The quarterback is.

757
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think we're gonna get there, and not

758
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: when the Patriots are at home, not against the Bears.

759
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: And so I've got away around the key number. I

760
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: do like New England here. I'm gonna play the first

761
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 2: half because look at New England, Loukily this game we

762
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: talked about the last couple of weeks. Oh, the Patriots

763
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: a little overvalued the way they've been playing some of

764
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 2: these teams. They beat up on the Lions, they beat

765
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: up on the Browns, the score got away late. This

766
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: game is not the time to fade in New England yet,

767
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 2: because it looks a lot like those games. When Belichick

768
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 2: plays a team that is one dimensional is the lights

769
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 2: out and the Bears could not be more one dimensional.

770
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: Belichick will know. If I know, then Belichick knows. Stack

771
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: the box, stop the run. Darrick Justin feels to beat

772
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: you because he can't because the Bears coaches know he can't,

773
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 2: and that's why they don't let him throw. The Bears

774
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: allow the worst pass pressure in the league. So you

775
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 2: stack the box, you get after the quarterback and let

776
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: fields try to beat you downfield. He can't do it.

777
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: So I'll play the Patriots. I don't love the seven

778
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 2: and a half just in case, like I think, probably

779
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: this just gets away and you get to, you know,

780
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: turn off the game early and watch something else on

781
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 2: Monday night. But I'll just play the first half because

782
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: the Bears are zero to six. Ats first half this

783
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 2: year is Pats minus four. By the way, first half,

784
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: Patriots defense is number two in DVOA in the first half.

785
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: Bears defense is dead last in the first half. Those

786
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: things do football little bets. So I'm going to stay

787
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 2: away from get out here with the back door, get

788
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 2: out here with the second half stuff. Just let Belichick

789
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: do his thing early. Justin the field is not built

790
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 2: to go go to New England and win a game

791
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: like this, So I like New England just kind of

792
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: put this one away and then we coast toward the

793
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: finish line.

794
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: Are you okay with four and a half.

795
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the four and a half, that's all right, okay?

796
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 3: Plus money on the Fanduels sportsbook right now minus four

797
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 3: and a half New England minus four and a half.

798
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 3: First half at plus one hundred, Jill, how do you

799
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: assess this game touchdown scores?

800
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 1: Are you looking New England? Is there is.

801
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 3: There hope for Chicago to score some points in this

802
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 3: game and you're like, Okay, maybe I will take a

803
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 3: stab at a.

804
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 1: Bear or two to score.

805
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: Well.

806
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 4: I think that's one thing that's really interesting about this

807
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 4: game is because we all saw the last two games

808
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 4: and we saw what this defense did to I don't

809
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 4: want to call it one dimensional offenses. I think the

810
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 4: Browns could do a little bit more, but they pretty

811
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 4: much shut that team down. Then the same thing for

812
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 4: the Lions as well, and this team has even less

813
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 4: weapons than those two teams. And it's surprising that the

814
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 4: spread is only seven and a half because it feels like,

815
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 4: you know, a twenty four to three win.

816
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 2: Is just that game script. So I think if I

817
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: was to pick.

818
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 4: Some touchdowns out of this, I think I'm going to

819
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 4: lean on that Patriots defense and look at them to

820
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 4: score at plus four fifty.

821
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: Jill, plus five hundred now on fail oh oh wow.

822
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I look at that price just before the pods started,

823
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 4: so obviously I'll take it at that price. But toy

824
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 4: kwon Thornton to the new Toy instead of Taekwon Thornton.

825
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 4: I think right now at plus two seventy looking really good,

826
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 4: and it looks like somebody that could be a game

827
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 4: breaker on the offense outside of Romandrie Stevenson, So I

828
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 4: think they might lean on him a little bit as well.

829
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: I think I'd sprinkle on him.

830
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 4: But I think the Patriots defensive play that's the one

831
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 4: I'd be considering the most.

832
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 1: Okay, I was just good.

833
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: I was I'm glad you brought it up because I'm

834
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 3: like every time we've done this and brought up your

835
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 3: angles on the touchdown scores, seeing a defense that high

836
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 3: up that caught my attention too.

837
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 1: So Patriots defense in the top.

838
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, usual, but they're usually like plus seven hundred every week.

839
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 4: Like these defenses, the way that they usually average out

840
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 4: every week, it's probably like a plus five fifty to

841
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 4: plus seven hundred.

842
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: When you're seeing a home favorite.

843
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 4: A plus four fifty, you know that they're facing a

844
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 4: really bad offense and the one that they could capitalize on.

845
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 3: Either of you have thoughts on the total. Is it

846
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 3: about right? Could you see New England really put me?

847
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 3: Because New England historically when they get it like you brand,

848
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: and I think you nailed it. When it's a one

849
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 3: dimensional team they face Belichick, could they could put up

850
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 3: a bunch and really separate in this gin.

851
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: Right, And that's to me, that's why I kind of

852
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: stayed away from the total, just because in these sort

853
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 2: of games we see sometimes where the Patriots themselves go

854
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: over the total, like they just start running the ball

855
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: and suddenly it's forty one to three and it just

856
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 2: got away. So I think you want to play a

857
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 2: total if you like what we're saying about the one

858
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 2: dimensional thing, I think you just do Chicago under. I

859
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: think if you agree that the Patriots are going to

860
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: shut it down, leave the Pats out of it and

861
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 2: just fade the Bears and take that under. If you

862
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 2: want to do a total, I like it. I like it.

863
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: Good angle, All right, very good.

864
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: Before we wrap up the show, it's time now to

865
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 3: look ahead to NFL Week eight, and let's kick off

866
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 3: the hot read Hot Wrap by on ice Right ice

867
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: Cream holds nineteen ound nineteen hold. So in the segment here,

868
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 3: the guys typically Brandon, if Jill's got a thought, he'll

869
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 3: jump in, but Brandon will assess a matchup that he

870
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,439
Speaker 3: likes going into the game or going into the into

871
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 3: the week. But it's more so the analysis of the

872
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 3: number the spot before anything moves, based on what happens

873
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: here as the week goes on a shift because of an.

874
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: Injury, the trade deadlines approaching.

875
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: We did say that, by the way, talking about Carolina

876
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: when they move McCaffrey, get in if you wanted to

877
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 3: get a number on the on the on the bucks,

878
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 3: but I hope you didn't. Point being is just be

879
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 3: aware of that stuff. That's why we do this now

880
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 3: so you get a better number. What do you have

881
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 3: for us this week and week eight?

882
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned McCaffrey. I'm going to go back to

883
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 2: that one. So we brought up actually in relation to

884
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,240
Speaker 2: this game. I will take the Falcons still against the Anthers.

885
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: I apologize, You're right you mentioned this game. Okay, go ahead,

886
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: that's what.

887
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 2: That's what it was in reference to you. So I

888
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 2: just I want to double down on it because I

889
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: want you to know, if you're the listener, if you

890
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 2: didn't bet this yet, or if you did and you

891
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: want to add to it, I'm with you. I am

892
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 2: still on Falcons next week minus six against the Panthers.

893
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: I still think this is on the wrong side of

894
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 2: the key number. Look, the line basically didn't move today,

895
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: and that is telling the Panthers blow out the Buccaneers,

896
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 2: the Falcons get demolished by the Bengals, and the books

897
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 2: are like, yeah, let's leave the line pretty much alone.

898
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 2: Go ahead, bring your Panthers money over in here. I'm

899
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 2: not buying it. I'll take the Falcons. I think this

900
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 2: line is going to rise, good chance it gets the

901
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: seven or beyond. If so, Atlanta got out talented by

902
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 2: the Bengals. Guess who is not going to out talent

903
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 2: them the Panthers and bj Walker and Chuba Hubbard and

904
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 2: Deontay Foreman not exactly, Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow out there.

905
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: And plus, there're a couple of numbers here in our

906
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: favor after today's results. Teams that are facing an opponent

907
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: that just covered a spread by twenty six or more so,

908
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 2: like a blowout cover. Those teams like Atlanta is here

909
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: sixty one percent ats the following week. So basically that's

910
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 2: telling us if you had a huge blowout cover like

911
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: the Panthers just did, you're getting a little overvalued. And

912
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 2: then another one a little bit easier here if you

913
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: just lost by seventeen or more like Atlanta, and you're

914
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: facing a team that just won by seventeen or more. Again,

915
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: the line has value and you are covering sixty one

916
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 2: percent of the time the following week. So it's a

917
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: good spot for the Falcons here. Like it more than

918
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 2: I did before today. I don't like it less. I

919
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 2: like it more. Give me the Falcons, and I trust

920
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 2: this team. They're going to run the ball, they're gonna

921
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: take care of business. And this was to me not

922
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 2: a story about the Panthers today. This is a story

923
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: about the Bucks. And I think the Panthers got their

924
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 2: exciting win. Now they go back on the road. Atlanta's

925
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: tired for the division by the time they play here.

926
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 2: If the Bucks don't win Thursday and night, Atlanta can

927
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 2: take the division lead here, I guess. Actually, the Panthers

928
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: could take the division lead as well. So yeah, football

929
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 2: is weird this year, guys, But I like the Falcons.

930
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,439
Speaker 2: Give me the minus six if you can get it still.

931
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, that look aheadline that was the spot Thursday night,

932
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 3: because that's when the McCaffrey trade happened. Late Thursday night,

933
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 3: after actually the fourth quarter of that game between Arizona

934
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 3: and Norses.

935
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's it. Don't forget too. The trade deadline,

936
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 2: I believe is right after the games. But there's been

937
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: rumors DJ Moore, there's been rooms about Brian Burns. There

938
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: could be more Panthers guys on the move here still,

939
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 2: So that's another way the line can move toward our favor.

940
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: Yep, good stuff, Yep, I'm proud of us.

941
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 3: We mentioned that Thursday, like, get on this now, guys

942
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 3: could be moved, and what do you know, they already

943
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 3: moved McCaffrey and they didn't waste any time on that.

944
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 2: So Brannan, can I give you a Can I give

945
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: you a warm read? I got one more for you.

946
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: It's not quite a hot read because you're gonna have to.

947
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 2: I want to get this out to you because this

948
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 2: is for the Thursday night game. I need you guys

949
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 2: to talk me out of if you think so. I'm

950
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 2: ready to back Tom Brady as a home underdog on

951
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 2: Thursday Night. Now here's why it's a warm read. It's

952
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: a warm read because I don't think you should bet

953
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 2: it yet. Because I think that line is going to

954
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: move away. Everyone is, everyone is ready to just move

955
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 2: on from Tom Brady. It's done, it's over. The goat

956
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 2: is dead. I think the money's going to come towards Baltimore.

957
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 2: Maybe it gets to two, maybe gets to three. One,

958
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: two and three. Those are all key numbers. Now if

959
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 2: it moves that way, you want to wait. But we're

960
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 2: not on here again untill after that, so I'm giving

961
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 2: the warm read. Now. Here are a couple numbers I found.

962
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 2: First of all, talked about Baltimore's passing. It's down lately.

963
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 2: Baltimore's passing defense has been bad all year, so that's

964
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: a good spot for Tom Brady to go out and

965
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 2: get back on track, get his guys the ball. So

966
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: I do think they're gonna be able to pass on Baltimore.

967
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: Here's a couple ats crazy numbers for you. First one,

968
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: Brady as a home underdog has only happened five times

969
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 2: his entire career. He's four and one against the spread,

970
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: covering by fourteen points a game, and he's won the

971
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: last four in a row outright as a home underdog.

972
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 2: So that's one. Second one is this this blew my

973
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 2: mind tom Brady after he failed to cover by fourteen

974
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: or more points, So whatever the line is at least

975
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 2: fourteen the other way. That clearly happened today in games

976
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 2: after that. In his career, twenty two and three against

977
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 2: the spread, twenty two and three. That's ats. That's not

978
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 2: straight up eighty eight percent of the time. When Brady's

979
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 2: team gets embarrassed, basically when they failed to even show

980
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 2: up for a game next week, eighty percent of the time,

981
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 2: they cover by ten and a half points a game

982
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 2: they have one and covered thirteen in a row in

983
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 2: that spot's example. This is a hard one for me.

984
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 2: Last December, the Bucks laid the egg in the New

985
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 2: Orleans they lost to the Saints nine to nothing. We

986
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: remember that one right because it cost cost us our

987
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: Brady MVP tickets and I was like, we're done. Brady's done.

988
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: It's over, dude, could not hit a receiver on the field.

989
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 2: We all thought it was done. We've all done this

990
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 2: with Brady like ten times now. They came out the

991
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: next week thirty two to six. They did just fine

992
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: and still, you know, made a push to for the

993
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 2: playoffs after that. So Brady's done. When he says he's done,

994
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 2: I'm ready for Thursday. And it's a warm read to

995
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 2: wait for the better line. Am I absolutely crazy? So

996
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: guys talk me out of this one.

997
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 3: Uh, I will not because I love tom Historically, my

998
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: fandom for Tom is high. But you know the simple

999
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 3: way to look at it too, the short week might

1000
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: be the best thing for this team. Yeah, dump this

1001
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 3: tape out and just go play again. Then again, it's

1002
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 3: a good team, though I wish.

1003
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: It was someone from their division they were playing. They're

1004
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 1: playing Lamar Jackson, that would be more even better or

1005
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: even better.

1006
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 4: You just wait till they trail by ten and then

1007
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 4: you live bet the Buccaneers because even today the Ravens

1008
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 4: almost coughed it up.

1009
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 2: So that's trying to do maybe one of the angles

1010
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 2: that I will well that is part of the warm read.

1011
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 2: Also is if you want if you can wait and

1012
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: bet it alive. The Ravens historically are an awesome first

1013
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 2: half team, so there's a good chance that you get

1014
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 2: an even better line if you want to deal live.

1015
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it's a good spot for Tampa

1016
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: Bay and I'm willing to give Tommy another chance. If

1017
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 2: it doesn't happen here, I might have to be out

1018
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: for good, but we'll see. The numbers are good.

1019
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 3: I think before today's games began, Tampa was a three

1020
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 3: point favorite for this game Thursday night, so it shows

1021
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 3: how much it's flipped based on that performance. Today, we'll

1022
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 3: see how that goes, all right, everybody, want to remind

1023
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 3: you what else we have coming up over at the

1024
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 3: Action Network heads up to our Baseball listener as well.

1025
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: We have a World Series now, we have the Astros

1026
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 3: and the Phillies. So no Payoff Pitch on Monday, so

1027
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 3: that you should know. But we will have Payoff Pitch

1028
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 3: to break down the World Series later this week, so

1029
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 3: be sure to join us Action Networks Baseball Betting podcast

1030
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 3: Payoff Pitch through the World Series.

1031
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 1: Of course we'll get there later in the week. Check

1032
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: that out.

1033
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 3: Also, NBA regular season underway. If you're looking to bet

1034
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 3: the NBA, check out Action Networks NBA Betting podcast Buckets

1035
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 3: episodes dropping every weekday. Stay caught up with every angle

1036
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 3: our NBA betting experts are on. You can listen to

1037
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 3: Buckets and Payoff Pitch wherever you get your podcasts. Just

1038
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 3: like that, hit subscribe, Please rate and review as well.

1039
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 3: We appreciate it for Joe Glant, Brandon Anderson Brennan lash Sheet.

1040
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to our weekly recap episode of the

1041
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 3: NFL here on the Action Network Podcast. We'll join you

1042
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: again later in the week for Week eight Best Bets.

1043
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 2: See you later.