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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Saturday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Paroult

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Speaker 1: on betting pros. You guys can find this podcast audio

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Speaker 1: video wherever you get your audio podcast video podcast at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk. Matt is my Twitter account. The bet MGM

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Speaker 1: offer is abuve me ten dollars bet new accounts. Juice

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Speaker 1: one fifty the promo code for one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: bucks with bet MGM. Okay, So two one in one

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Speaker 1: last night, winning night. Not a big winning night, but

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Speaker 1: a winning night nonetheless in Major League Baseball. So I'll take,

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Speaker 1: as I always say, I'll take two and one every

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Speaker 1: single time. Kind of a bummer on the over for

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Speaker 1: the Rockies game. That game went way over wrong on

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Speaker 1: that push on the nine for the total between the

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Speaker 1: Brewers and the Reds. The parlay missed two of the

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Speaker 1: three legs, and they don't bet a parlay parlay, so

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Speaker 1: we didn't come. I'm close to hitting that last night,

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Speaker 1: although we got one of the bets right. That didn't

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Speaker 1: really matter. We got the Reds plus one and a

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Speaker 1: half at minus one eighty four, the most expensive of

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Speaker 1: all the legs that came in Phillies game should have

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Speaker 1: gone over. The Phillies were three and fourteen, no sorry,

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Speaker 1: three and seventeen with the runners in scoring position, and

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Speaker 1: they won five to three. They covered the run line

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Speaker 1: for us, which was nice, so we got that. Giants

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Speaker 1: got the run line two nothing for us, so we

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Speaker 1: got that minus one ten and minus one forty six

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Speaker 1: that came in on that. So two and one, one

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Speaker 1: two one in one day, all right, So here's where

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Speaker 1: we are. I got a hockey play add addition to

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Speaker 1: two tonight for hockey, two baseball plays and two UFC

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Speaker 1: Austin Betts to give you guys here today. So I'm

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Speaker 1: going to give you We're going to have three units

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Speaker 1: officially in play here today. And if you want to

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Speaker 1: jump in and extra take the Giants on the run

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Speaker 1: line against the Pirates, I'll do that personally. There's no

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Speaker 1: line for it up right now, so I don't know

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Speaker 1: how expensive it's going to be, but Giants run line

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Speaker 1: against the Pirates are a good bet to jump in

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Speaker 1: here today for the Giants and the Pirates. Pirates are bad, bad,

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Speaker 1: bad pirates on the run line. The Pirates are one

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Speaker 1: of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. After last night,

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Speaker 1: they are twenty seven and thirty seven to the run line.

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Speaker 1: So we'll be on that personally coming up here, but

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Speaker 1: official place. Okay, we're already on Tampa half a unit

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Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five to win the game. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to do the same bet that I made, or

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Speaker 1: seeing bets that I'm made in game one in game two.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'll lose them again. Maybe we

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Speaker 1: go in two. First game, I bet Tampa and the under.

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Speaker 1: Second game, I'm betting Tampa and the under. Ralph Michaels

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Speaker 1: awesome guy on Twitter to follow at col Sports LV.

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Speaker 1: I highly recommend if you guys follow him. He has

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Speaker 1: pulled the following numbers. This is a ninety two percent

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Speaker 1: hit percentage when the road team loses Game one of

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Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup Finals. Game two has gone one ten

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Speaker 1: in one to the over. So the under is ten

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Speaker 1: to one in one. Under is minus one oh five

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Speaker 1: under six, same bet, same price. I'm doing it. Tampa

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Speaker 1: money line under six didn't work in game one, Let's

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Speaker 1: see if it works in game two. If it doesn't,

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Speaker 1: I'd have to rethink what I'm doing in this series.

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Speaker 1: But Tampa money line under six minus one oh five

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Speaker 1: for the Stanley Cup Finals Game two tonight in Colorado.

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Speaker 1: Let's see if the Lightning can even up the series

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Speaker 1: at one game apiece and Vassileski not giving up two

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Speaker 1: soft goals in the first period which really killed us.

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Speaker 1: So let's jump on that Tampa plus one thirty five

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Speaker 1: money line under six minus one oh five for the

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Speaker 1: game in Game number two of the Stanley Cup Finals.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk in baseball there and the Cincinnati Reds,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about their game. I'm gonna focus in on

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Speaker 1: series that I think I got a pretty good read on.

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee is really bad on the run line, and the

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Speaker 1: books don't know what to do with this. I've seen

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Speaker 1: the books be on either side, Milwaukee catching one and

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Speaker 1: a half runs or the Reds catching one and a

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Speaker 1: half runs. I got this money line for the Brewers

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Speaker 1: last night at minus one oh five. They're throwing Jason Alexander,

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Speaker 1: a right hander. Not the Jason Alexander of Seinfeld, but

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Speaker 1: Jason Alexander. He has been pretty good four and two thirds,

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Speaker 1: five and seven, one run, one run, two earned runs

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Speaker 1: given up. Over the three starts. This guy has thrown

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Speaker 1: two point one six ERA six k's but a one

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Speaker 1: point seven whip for him. Twenty nine year old, kind

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Speaker 1: of a journeyman, but pitched very well over the four

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Speaker 1: three starts for the Brewers. He's up against Graham Ashcroff

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Speaker 1: of the Reds, twenty four year old right hander who's

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Speaker 1: been pretty good, although he got rocked in his last

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Speaker 1: start when four and two thirds against the Cardinals on

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Speaker 1: the R. I would give up four earned runs before

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Speaker 1: that though, six innings, three hits, no earn runs against Arizona.

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Speaker 1: Against Washington seven innings, four hits, one earned run against

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Speaker 1: the Giants at home, six and a third, four hits,

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Speaker 1: one earned run. It's kind of crazy, but you look

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Speaker 1: at he's three and oh with a with a two

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Speaker 1: point two to two ERA. The Reds in this guy

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Speaker 1: starts are five and oh. They haven't lost a single

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Speaker 1: game since this guy started. I'm gonna fade this streak.

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Speaker 1: Supposed to bet the streak. I'm gonna fade the streak

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Speaker 1: because Milwaukee has this tendency of winning games by one run.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna fade the streak. I can't stay away from

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Speaker 1: the minus one zero five. I think it's too tasty

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Speaker 1: to jump in. I get the better team and the

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Speaker 1: better road team. Brewers are twenty one and eighteen on

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Speaker 1: the road. Reds are twelve and eighteen at home. Their

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Speaker 1: games have been very high scoring. Okay, but the Brewers

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Speaker 1: so far lead this season series five games to two.

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Speaker 1: I think he goes six games to two here. They

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Speaker 1: won five yesterday. Game before that was fourteen to eleven

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Speaker 1: won by the Reds. But I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: a win here for the Brewers. They'll take game two

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Speaker 1: minus one oh five on the money line, taking Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: to beat Cincinnati half a unit. Bet on that other

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Speaker 1: half a unit? What are we doing with it? We're

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Speaker 1: gonna go right back to the Phillies and the Washington Nationals.

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Speaker 1: This number has been moving, okay. I got this at

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen on the run line. It moved to

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty, where it is right now. Hopefully you

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Speaker 1: guys will get it somewhere around there. Mice one twenty

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Speaker 1: is fine to lay that juice Aaron Nola on the

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Speaker 1: mound against Josiah Gray for the Washington Nationals. The Nationals

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Speaker 1: are a really bad team. The Phillies have won ten

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Speaker 1: to one, five three eight seven, five three. They are

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Speaker 1: three and one to the run line. They are four

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Speaker 1: and oho so far here in this season against the

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Speaker 1: Washington Nationals, who are eleven and twenty five at home

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Speaker 1: and just an awful baseball team, okay, just really bad.

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Speaker 1: Have lost games four to one, nine to five, ten, four, eight, two, ten,

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Speaker 1: one and five three okay, all on the run line.

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Speaker 1: This is just a really bad baseball team, last in

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Speaker 1: Major League Baseball against the run line. So far here

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Speaker 1: they have lost what seven games in a row, all

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Speaker 1: on the run line? Okay, this dreak. I am betting

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Speaker 1: Phillies minus one fifteen run line against the Nationals for

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Speaker 1: a half a unit. All right, so the hockey plays

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Speaker 1: under six minus one oh five baseball is Brewers money

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Speaker 1: line at minus one oh five Phillies run line at

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen against the Washington Nationals. Okay, UFC Austin tonight,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the main event. Calvin Cater against Josh Emmett.

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Speaker 1: Calvin Cater part of the New England what do they

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Speaker 1: call it again? New England Mafia? Right fights Saut of Mathuit, Massachusetts.

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Speaker 1: I'm from andover Massachusetts. He fights from Mathuit, Massachusetts, which

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Speaker 1: is next to the town where I grew up Merrimack Valley.

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Speaker 1: We call it the MVC. Josh Emmett, this is wild, okay.

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Speaker 1: Josh Emmett for the last two fights have gone the distance,

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Speaker 1: three rounds in three rounds going to the cards against

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Speaker 1: jam Burgos and Dan Ega. Both those fights he has won.

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Speaker 1: He's won four fights in a row. He did get

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Speaker 1: a stoppage late in the third round against Michael Johnson

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Speaker 1: back on March thirtieth and twenty nineteen. He did get

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Speaker 1: a stoppage against VerTech, who I don't know much about,

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Speaker 1: but stopped him a couple of months later in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Threw punches. But so far I mean Josh Emmett is

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Speaker 1: a guy who's gonna win this fight. He's to win

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Speaker 1: this fight by throwing punches. Calvin Cater five round fights,

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Speaker 1: last three fights, all going the distance against Dan Egay

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Speaker 1: unimous decision against Max Holloway, he lost five rounds. Halloway

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Speaker 1: won that. Against Chikatse, he won the five rounds. He

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Speaker 1: won that fight on the cards. Fight of the Night

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Speaker 1: is on both This fight has potential to be awesome.

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Speaker 1: Circus Sports tonight, I DMed my friends at Circus Sports

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Speaker 1: to ask a question. They're the market low tonight here

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Speaker 1: in Vegas, so you can shop this around. But the

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Speaker 1: over four and a half rounds is minus one twenty five,

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Speaker 1: and normally when that happens, when they're the market low

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Speaker 1: and everybody else is juiced up, I get concerned because

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Speaker 1: I respect the numbers for Circus Sports and Nick Koalakis

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Speaker 1: when it comes to combat sports more than anybody else.

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Speaker 1: So I had to really, you know, dig down deep

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Speaker 1: here to go. Okay, what am I missing here? Because

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Speaker 1: the fight to go the distance is minus one twelve

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Speaker 1: on both sides at FanDuel, so Fandel thinks there's a

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Speaker 1: chance that this thing winds up not going. But the

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Speaker 1: over four and a half on Fandel is minus one

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Speaker 1: thirty two, So yeah, minus one twenty five. At Circus Sports,

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Speaker 1: the under four and a half rounds is plus money.

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Speaker 1: And while I want to say take the under plus

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Speaker 1: one zero five, I'm going to go with the trends here,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna think this fight goes over four and

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Speaker 1: a half rounds and it could be an absolute war.

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Speaker 1: But Calvin Cater can take a two by four upside

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Speaker 1: his head, and by the looks of it, Josh Emmett

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Speaker 1: can as well. Their average fight times are long. I

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Speaker 1: mean Calvin Cator fourteen forty average fight time, Josh Emmett

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Speaker 1: twelve minutes average fight time. Just Emmett's five inches shorter.

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Speaker 1: Big height difference, but in only a two inch reach advantage.

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Speaker 1: Here we'll see what that does. Strikes landed per minute

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Speaker 1: five point one to four point two pretty good. Would

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Speaker 1: take down defense. Neither guy really wants to do a

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Speaker 1: lot with takedowns, although Josh Emitt is probably more accurate.

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Speaker 1: Would takedowns at one point twenty five every fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 1: trying to take down to his opponent. Four fight win

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Speaker 1: streak coming in here for Josh Emmett. One fight win streak,

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Speaker 1: but winners of three of his last four fights in

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Speaker 1: Calvin cat All right, I'm gonna jump in here with

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Speaker 1: the over. I'm gonna bet and say, Okay, this fight's

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Speaker 1: gonna go over four and a half rounds. You can

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Speaker 1: bet it to go to the cards if you will,

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Speaker 1: but I'll take that little late round, those final couple

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Speaker 1: of minutes, I'll take that. Potentially they get a late

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Speaker 1: round fifth round stoppage here, I'm gonna go over four

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Speaker 1: and a half rounds half a unit minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: five for Calvin Cator and Josh Emmett in the main event,

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Speaker 1: and then we go to a parlay. You guys love parlays.

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Speaker 1: I love parlays. This could make the entire night if

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Speaker 1: this hits. And I often say, look, I don't bet

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Speaker 1: parlays often. I do bet parlays from time to time

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Speaker 1: in combat sports. I don't normally bet three fight parlays.

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Speaker 1: But I do think there's some value here in jumping

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Speaker 1: in on this one because Kevin Holland needs a win.

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Speaker 1: Tim Memes Tim Means is an absolute journeyman thirty two,

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Speaker 1: twelve and one. This dude's been around for a really

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Speaker 1: long time. He's won his last three fights. But Kevin

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Speaker 1: Holland as a dude at twenty two and seven who

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Speaker 1: needs a win in a big, big way. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a guy who can be very, very dangerous

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Speaker 1: when he fights. He just hasn't fought all that often.

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Speaker 1: He beat Alex Olivera in his last fight in March,

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Speaker 1: and this is a guy who was two to one

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Speaker 1: over his three fights before that. But he's beaten JACKI,

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Speaker 1: Ray Souza, He's beaten some pretty good fighters in this

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Speaker 1: weight class. I like Kevin Holland to win this fight.

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Speaker 1: He's a big favorite, three dollars favorite. We're gonna parlay

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Speaker 1: Kevin Holland money line. Here's the one hook. Donald SERRONI

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Speaker 1: is taking on Joe Laison. Laison is a unbelievable fighter. Okay,

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Speaker 1: how much does Seroni have left in the tank? Seroni

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Speaker 1: was supposed to fight this fight earlier in the year.

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Speaker 1: Serronnie got sick in some way. Was it the weight cut?

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Speaker 1: This fight's at lightweight forty year old Donald Serrone. He's

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Speaker 1: coming all the way down to lightweight. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: One fifty five is hard to make. It's why Connimer

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Speaker 1: Bigger want to ever fight it again. Joe Laison, I think

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Speaker 1: wins this fight. How I'm not really sure, but Joe

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Speaker 1: Laison wins this fight. He's plus one forty five. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So this is what helps to parlay a lot. We

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Speaker 1: have two favorites in one dog. You take Joe Laison

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Speaker 1: to win. Kevin Holland, Laison and Calvin cater three fight

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Speaker 1: money line parlay plus three sixty. I normally don't bet

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Speaker 1: half units on this stuff, but because it's fighting, you know,

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Speaker 1: fighting one punch. Things that happened, shocking things happen. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't the parlay. I don't know. I want to have

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Speaker 1: some fun tonight. Okay, So we're taking Joe Liaison alson Jolaison.

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Speaker 1: I should know how to say his name, Joe Laison.

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Speaker 1: He's been fighting for a long time, seen him for

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Speaker 1: a long Timely should know how to say his last name.

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Speaker 1: But over Donald Seroni, he takes over Cowboy takes w

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Speaker 1: cater Laison hollow three fight money line parlay for UFC

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Speaker 1: Austin plus three sixty for half a unit. This hits

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Speaker 1: the whole day is good. We can lose everything else

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Speaker 1: and hit that and will be good on the day.

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Speaker 1: So a little bit of a hell Mary, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a flyer, have some fun with fight night.

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Speaker 1: Austin coming up here for us tonight. All right, So

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Speaker 1: to recap the plays, we have one full unit going

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Speaker 1: now for the Semi Cup finals. But we added under

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Speaker 1: six mis one oh five for Tampa and Colorado. Same

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Speaker 1: bet in game one when zero to two in game one,

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Speaker 1: so you can fade it if you want, you can

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Speaker 1: go go against it. But Brewers money line mice one

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Speaker 1: oh five Phillies run line MIE one fifteen against the Nationals.

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Speaker 1: Like the Giants on the run line as well personal

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Speaker 1: play on that you want to jump in with the pirates.

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Speaker 1: We're taking over four and a half rounds at MIS

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Speaker 1: one twenty five for the main event for Cater versus

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Speaker 1: Emmett and it's a Holland Laison Cater three fight money

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Speaker 1: line parlay at plus three sixty. All those bets for

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Speaker 1: a half a unit three full units in play here

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Speaker 1: for us officially on a Saturday minus Matt Parratze. Follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Doc Matt. Each Sumber morning,

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Speaker 1: it's Dale Juice Podcast. I was being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Bedam GM