WEBVTT - HPE CEO Neri Discusses Bolstering Profit Forecast

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<v Speaker 1>Searched Bloomberg clovel News Well it shares of Hewlett Packard

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<v Speaker 1>Enterprise HP hired by more than eleven percent, having their

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<v Speaker 1>best day in nearly two years. The Harbormakers, saying yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>was raising its annual profit forecast and it's strong demand

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<v Speaker 1>for products. The company also beating on gross margin despite

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<v Speaker 1>a tough supply environment. So let's get into it. Joining

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<v Speaker 1>us now is Antonio Nary, President and CEO of HPE.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us via zoom in Houston. Antonio, It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us. Um what is it?

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<v Speaker 1>Specifically as you look out over the current year, gave

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<v Speaker 1>you the confidence to increase your profit forecast. Well, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for having me today in your show. We are

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<v Speaker 1>very excited about our performance in Q one. We had

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<v Speaker 1>a robust demand and very very strong profitability. And the

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<v Speaker 1>couple with the moment that we have around our strategy

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<v Speaker 1>to become an h to cloud company for our customers

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<v Speaker 1>and partners that they can consume us a service and

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<v Speaker 1>the incredible backlog we have, we give us the confidence

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<v Speaker 1>to raise once again five out of six quarters our

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<v Speaker 1>net earnest per share the lieutenant and pres share for

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<v Speaker 1>the full fiscal year by seven cents, with now the

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<v Speaker 1>midpoint being two dollars and ten cents. So um, this

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<v Speaker 1>is driven by customer demand, is driven by our strategy

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<v Speaker 1>that's resonating with customers and honestly a great execution of

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<v Speaker 1>what I team. Because obviously we are balancing the revenue

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<v Speaker 1>and the profitability of the business. We want to dig

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<v Speaker 1>into that demand a little bit more because what stuck

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<v Speaker 1>out to me was that you had a growth in orders,

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<v Speaker 1>which was your third consecutive quarter of at least increase.

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<v Speaker 1>Breakdown that demand a little bit more. Where is it

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<v Speaker 1>coming from? What's driving that. That's actually exactly right. So

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<v Speaker 1>this is the third consecutive quarter of twenty plus percent

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<v Speaker 1>or the growth, and it was across all businesses. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>our compute business, with obviously people believe is commoditized um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, grow, our edge business, which is all about

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<v Speaker 1>secure connectivity with a subscription model, grew an excess of.

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<v Speaker 1>Our storage business including data services, grew an excess of

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<v Speaker 1>fift and even our high performance computing an AI business

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<v Speaker 1>grew in excess of I will say the shining star though,

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<v Speaker 1>is we bring it all together in a platform, which

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<v Speaker 1>we call it h Pig Green Lake, which you can

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<v Speaker 1>consumers a service grew a hundred and thirty six percent

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<v Speaker 1>year of the year. So it's across all businesses. But

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<v Speaker 1>the momentum we have is because we're bringing all our

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<v Speaker 1>solutions in an integrated, unified experience under the hpgree like

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<v Speaker 1>Umbrella Antonio. We've learned on the call yesterday you said

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<v Speaker 1>that supply and logistics challenges they may last through two

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's somewhat different than from some of the companies

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<v Speaker 1>we've heard from thus far in recent weeks as they've

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<v Speaker 1>reported earnings. Are you just being conservative. What's going to

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<v Speaker 1>improve first here? Is it going to be logistics challenges

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<v Speaker 1>or is it going to be chip components and availability here? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>my message has been consistent for several quarters, always said

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<v Speaker 1>that this supply chain and logistics overload situation will continue

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<v Speaker 1>well into phisically two, and we still see it that way.

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<v Speaker 1>The majority of the challenge that actually are in what

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<v Speaker 1>are called low level components and not on the high

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<v Speaker 1>value commodities. And think think about it now, stuff that

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<v Speaker 1>people don't think about, a voltage, regulators, capacitors, things that

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<v Speaker 1>you need to build a system at the low level

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<v Speaker 1>before you can build actually the full integrated system. And

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<v Speaker 1>that has to deal with the with the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the demand is very strong and the availability of substrates

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<v Speaker 1>particularly you know, these components are what we call in

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<v Speaker 1>the old generation of technologies like twenty eight meters and stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of the fabrication has moved to the

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<v Speaker 1>newer technologies like fourteen and below. So I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the supplier of the substrate god called a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit in between because of the huge demand that

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<v Speaker 1>they are seeing and now they need to catch up.

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<v Speaker 1>And this takes time because when you start bringing new

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<v Speaker 1>capacity is complicated systems processes, and we said all along

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<v Speaker 1>will take well under twenty the end of two. However,

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<v Speaker 1>I will say we have never seen any noticeable customer cancelation,

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<v Speaker 1>which again give us the confidence the demand is there

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<v Speaker 1>is very robust, and it's also driven by the data

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<v Speaker 1>explosion we see around us above in a personal life

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<v Speaker 1>and in probably in a in a business side. Well, Antono,

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<v Speaker 1>even with those supply chain and those logistical challenges, you

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<v Speaker 1>did see gross margin increased by thirty or rather at

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<v Speaker 1>gross margin. And what I'm curious about is whether that's sustainable. Yes, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>it is sustainable, and I think he points to the

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<v Speaker 1>quality of earnings of how we're driving our company forward. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>we are driving higher mix of software and services. If

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<v Speaker 1>you look at one particular slide our CFO Tirek Robiety

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<v Speaker 1>show the yesterday and commented on it was the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that our green Lake offer drives more software and services

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<v Speaker 1>in fact now is almost two thirds of the offer

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<v Speaker 1>that drives higher gross margins, higher gross operating margins. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>the edge business comes with higher gross margins too, also

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<v Speaker 1>because it's driven by a subscription model to software before

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<v Speaker 1>you actually deploy some sort of support and access point

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<v Speaker 1>or or a switching point. So all of that comes

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<v Speaker 1>with higher margins. And remember that we were one of

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<v Speaker 1>the first through the pandemic at the beginning of the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic to enact what we call our real locational resources

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<v Speaker 1>into the future areas of growth that's also pay enough

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<v Speaker 1>for us. So the margin are sustainable. And I will

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<v Speaker 1>say really proud of what the team had done managing

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<v Speaker 1>prioritization of borders and margins. And listen, if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at a compute business again in the market is being

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<v Speaker 1>seen as a commoditized business. The operative margins of the

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<v Speaker 1>business was thirteen point eight percent. There is no vendor

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<v Speaker 1>out there and drive the level of profitability in a

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<v Speaker 1>commoditized business. Antonio, I want to talk a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>about the demand environment here. You did mention some really

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<v Speaker 1>positive you made some positive comments when it came to

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<v Speaker 1>lack of cancelations from from clients. I'm wondering about, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is this a reopening play here? How much was was

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<v Speaker 1>actually pulled forward during covid um and driven by the

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<v Speaker 1>need for corporations to actually transform their I T infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>to support new services like digital transformation. Well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>them is a combination of many things. When the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>head obviously everyone including herself went into preservation mode internal liquidity.

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<v Speaker 1>Second is that through the pandemic we saw a massive

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<v Speaker 1>acceleration of the digital transformation. In many ways, the digital

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<v Speaker 1>economy flourish even further because everybody was ordering food and

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<v Speaker 1>other services from their mobile phones. And so what we

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<v Speaker 1>see is a combination of people needed to modernize, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>apply these new technologies in a cloud oriented way um

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<v Speaker 1>and obviously the acceleration of the digital transformation. And at

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<v Speaker 1>the core of that is data. Data. Data, data in

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<v Speaker 1>data is now the most precious asset customers have. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>I predict at one time in the future, no long

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<v Speaker 1>distance enterprises like us, we have to recognize the value

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<v Speaker 1>that data in the balance sheets of their companies because

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<v Speaker 1>it's not different. They're recognized and another intelligible asset. And

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<v Speaker 1>customers need to move faster and extracting the insight from

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<v Speaker 1>the data. And that's why I said we have entered

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<v Speaker 1>now what I called the new age of insights. And

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<v Speaker 1>those brands who can extract value data fasters are winning

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<v Speaker 1>and you can see it, you know, when they become

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<v Speaker 1>more digital, more data driven they actually create new experiences,

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<v Speaker 1>new business models, and more and more opportunities for their companies.

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<v Speaker 1>And Antonio, let's talk a little bit about intelligent edge here,

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<v Speaker 1>because you are going head to head with Cisco, but

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<v Speaker 1>clearly you're growing in this area. And I'm curious whether

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<v Speaker 1>that's a function of you taking market share, whether the

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<v Speaker 1>pie is just getting bigger. Well, we've definitely taking market share. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, the own ramp to digitize your

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<v Speaker 1>business is through connectivity. You know, we call the edge

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<v Speaker 1>the next frontier in the edges where we live and work, um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, that's where the vast majority of the data

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<v Speaker 1>is created, not in a in a cloud of sorts,

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<v Speaker 1>but really what the action is and that first step

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<v Speaker 1>is to be connected in One of the concerns I

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<v Speaker 1>have while this is all good, is the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>connectivity is an essential service, not different than water and electricity.

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<v Speaker 1>And and that's why it's important as we go forward

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<v Speaker 1>and we deployed this new massive distributed enterprise and this

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<v Speaker 1>new way of working, connectivity needs to be available everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>So we are taking share, We are creating new opportunities.

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<v Speaker 1>But we have a differentiated strategy is called UBA Services

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<v Speaker 1>Platform as a part of each pigree lake in that

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<v Speaker 1>cloud or ented approach. In a mobile first approach, you

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<v Speaker 1>can procure, provision and manage any aspect of your connectivity,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's a WiFi connectivity, whether it's a land port

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<v Speaker 1>connectivity or a one connectivity. Remember that a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the old system, you know, whether it's a data center,

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<v Speaker 1>campus and branch, we are connected through fixed networks. As

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<v Speaker 1>more and more cloud native applications, particularly your phone gets developed,

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<v Speaker 1>the traffic gets routed through the Internet, and therefore you

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<v Speaker 1>have to connect these millions of endpoints in a very

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<v Speaker 1>sustainable way. And hp Aruba Services Platform provide that integrated

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<v Speaker 1>experience for our customers in a subscription model, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>why we're growing so so fast. Antonio. In the last

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<v Speaker 1>minute that we have with you, I want to try

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<v Speaker 1>to understand what it's been like for your team over

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<v Speaker 1>the least last couple of years. How you've had to

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<v Speaker 1>raise wages at Hewlett Packard Enterprise to attract and retain

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<v Speaker 1>talent um. How do you see cost being affected there? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>no question that today one of the biggest challenges all

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<v Speaker 1>of us have is attract, retained and developed the right warforce,

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<v Speaker 1>and that warforce is changing, right and the pandemic, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>enable people to think differently, to work differently, and so

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<v Speaker 1>I always said, you know, we had as good as

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<v Speaker 1>the innovation of the technology and the people we have

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<v Speaker 1>in this company. So that's a top priority for me,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why I pad a lot of emphasis on

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<v Speaker 1>the culture. Culture is everything in the end, and I

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<v Speaker 1>have to say really proud of what this company does

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<v Speaker 1>for customers and partners, aligned to a very clear purpose

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<v Speaker 1>to amunce the way people in a work. When you

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<v Speaker 1>talk to uhcurrent employee or prospect, emply they want to

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<v Speaker 1>understand what you stand for. They want to make an impact.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously they come in because the field, the job provides

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<v Speaker 1>for their family. But I also want to grow, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>not different than I did when I became, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>an employee hp T. Three years later, I became the

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<v Speaker 1>precedency of the company career mobility and opportunity and diversity

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<v Speaker 1>and inclusion, sustainability all place. So definitely, you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>are making great progress. We have a lot to work

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<v Speaker 1>to be done, particularly diversity, but I think this company

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely the right path with the sun Sholder value

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<v Speaker 1>and you can see it through the results we deliver

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<v Speaker 1>in Q one. Antonio Nary, President and CEO of Hewlett

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<v Speaker 1>Packard Enterprise, running us via zoom from Houston, Texas. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>so much, Antonio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Well a story that's featured in the upcoming issue of

0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week magazine that you can read now on

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.840
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal and of course also at Bloomberg dot

0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:32.920
<v Speaker 1>com Slash business Week. It's all about an heir to

0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:37.640
<v Speaker 1>a billionaire who's hanging up his healing crystal to fix capital.

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.680
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of our audience is familiar with

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<v Speaker 1>Thomas Petterfee. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, he's one

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<v Speaker 1>of the wealthiest people in the world. He's the seventies

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<v Speaker 1>second richest person on the globe. His son, though, William Petterfee,

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>is the only son of the billionaire, and he cycled

0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.680
<v Speaker 1>through a lifetimes worth of occupations in just thirty two years.

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<v Speaker 1>Annie Massa wrote the story. She's invested reporter for Bloomberg News.

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.920
<v Speaker 1>Joel Webber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. Interactive Brokers

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.400
<v Speaker 1>is a sponsor of Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Joel,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to start with you, um, who is William

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<v Speaker 1>petterfe Well? His uh dad is the founder and formerly

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of UM Interactive Broker. And I think in some

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 1>ways you could probably define him as the son of

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.840
<v Speaker 1>Right and I think it's an important place to start.

0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>And like many sons and fathers, like sometimes the son

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, rejects the father's profession. And that's sort of

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.080
<v Speaker 1>what's happened for a lot of Will's life. Only just

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 1>recently he's basically coming coming from the cold, took on

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 1>a version of of something to that resembles of his

0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:50.600
<v Speaker 1>dad's UM progression and as part of the inter Interactive

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 1>Broker world now, which an he's gonna tell us more about.

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:56.560
<v Speaker 1>It's also like in my mind and why I was

0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:58.840
<v Speaker 1>excited about it as a Business Week story, it's like

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:03.199
<v Speaker 1>a real life six session story with its own version

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.959
<v Speaker 1>of the drama. And it's also got E. S G.

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Which sort of is part of what makes it all

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 1>interesting because that was the thing that brought Will into

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.360
<v Speaker 1>the fold. So any who is Will, Yeah, that's right.

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 1>It is like a succession story. But it's a succession

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:24.360
<v Speaker 1>story in reverse basically because you have Thomas Petterfie, this

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 1>billionaire who founded Interactive Brokers giant trading platform, and his

0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 1>son and his two sisters always rejected the business and

0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of their dad's role on Wall Street. So if

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>you think about logan roy and succession and all the

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 1>kids are vying for control of that business, this is

0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:45.400
<v Speaker 1>a case where all the kids are like, we don't

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 1>want anything to do with capitalism. And now what's happening.

0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 1>The change that the story really centers on is Will

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>has made peace with the fact that he can come

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.720
<v Speaker 1>work for Interactive Brokers like his dad always wanted, as

0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 1>long as he works in E s G and sustainable

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.160
<v Speaker 1>and sting. So what does that look like ESG and

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.320
<v Speaker 1>sustainable investing for for interactive Brokers and for Will's position here.

0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 1>And this is a guy who you know, he was

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 1>a ranch hand as you right, among other things, among

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.440
<v Speaker 1>among many other things. And the longest he'd worked in

0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 1>finance before this was what less than a year at

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>a couple different firms, right, So he really he didn't

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>have much of a background in finance, and he had

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.000
<v Speaker 1>done so many different things. He worked on a documentary

0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:26.160
<v Speaker 1>on archetypal astrology, UM, you know, talking kind of was

0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>talking about how different alignments of planets affect moments of

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.920
<v Speaker 1>revolutionary change on Earth. So then he comes to Interactive

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Brokers and his role there. It's interesting because Interactive Brokers,

0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 1>just to name one example, UM has a very homogeneous board.

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>For example, UM pretty much all white men, including Will

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 1>who's now a board member UM and and it now

0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 1>has recently UM added one woman. So he's trying to

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>make changes around the edges to make Interactive Brokers more

0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:58.320
<v Speaker 1>of a UM sustainable company. And he's built an app

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 1>that can kind of let you invest your values. As

0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>they would say, how does his dad feel about his app?

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.440
<v Speaker 1>His dad had some really uh funny comments about the app.

0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 1>He kind of when we were doing the interview, showed

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 1>me that he had downloaded it and he said that

0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.400
<v Speaker 1>he how much does he have in the account? He

0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.760
<v Speaker 1>said only four hundred and eighties six thousand dollars and

0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:22.080
<v Speaker 1>then he kind of paused and he said, which is

0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:27.960
<v Speaker 1>pretty good. H So, so he does have some money

0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 1>on some marginal amount of money on the app, and

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 1>the things that he invested in were more environmentally focused,

0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>and he does, um, you know, like the environment and

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of conservation efforts. But then when I asked him

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 1>more about the social side of e s G. He said,

0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>that's not really my thing. That's not that's not what

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:47.400
<v Speaker 1>I prioritize. Okay, So forget the forget the s sounds

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>like um. So you have so many great details in

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:55.200
<v Speaker 1>this story, including where Will's change of heart actually happened,

0:16:55.280 --> 0:17:00.360
<v Speaker 1>what happened in Costa Rica. So Will was attending a

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 1>party at an eco village in Costa Rica, and he

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.160
<v Speaker 1>said that he kind of had this aha moment that

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.919
<v Speaker 1>he had been he had been working on this documentary

0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 1>about astrology. He had been, you know, in New Mexico,

0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.880
<v Speaker 1>trying to absorb the healing powers of the desert there

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.919
<v Speaker 1>because he had been really um burned by his small

0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.480
<v Speaker 1>foray into into hedge funds basically. So, so he had

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.159
<v Speaker 1>been out in New Mexico working on this documentary and

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:28.480
<v Speaker 1>he's in Costa Rica, and he said that he had

0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:32.040
<v Speaker 1>this aha moment where he thought, well, I could go

0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:35.639
<v Speaker 1>to work for my dad. But because his dad always

0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:37.439
<v Speaker 1>since he was a teenager, wanted him to work for

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.359
<v Speaker 1>Interactive Brokers, but he said, but I could do it

0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.160
<v Speaker 1>in a way that's kind of true to my values,

0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.679
<v Speaker 1>and I could uh work in sustainability at Interactive Brokers.

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:47.960
<v Speaker 1>So he has this dramatic moment where he flat and

0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 1>he knew that his dad was going to step down

0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:52.919
<v Speaker 1>as CEO. He flies to this company party in Manhattan

0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know, shortly thereafter, he tells his dad,

0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm on board as long as I can work on

0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:02.200
<v Speaker 1>sustainability at your company. So he's gonna be the next

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:06.359
<v Speaker 1>CEO of the company. Uh. No. One thing that these

0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 1>two men definitely agreed on, and I asked them both um,

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 1>was that Will Will not be CEO. Will said, he's

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.639
<v Speaker 1>too interested in his other pursuits. He's got other stuff

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 1>going on. He's a poet. He likes to go out

0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 1>into the forest where he lives in Boulder and kind

0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.080
<v Speaker 1>of um go out there without a tent or any

0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:27.880
<v Speaker 1>food and test his willpower. Um. His dad also said,

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't think he's going to be the CEO.

0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 1>He's too interested in traveling in nature in South America

0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>to do something like that. So they were they were

0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.919
<v Speaker 1>in agreement that that's not really in the in the

0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.520
<v Speaker 1>pathway for Well, this is one of those features that

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:44.080
<v Speaker 1>has it all. He's a poet, he's quoting experts in

0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:48.360
<v Speaker 1>Hallucinogen's Annie masa investing reporter at Bloomberg News. Check out

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:50.400
<v Speaker 1>her story. It's featured in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg

0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:51.920
<v Speaker 1>Business Week magazine. You can read it now in the

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.880
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com Slash business Week also

0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.959
<v Speaker 1>also with a Joe Weber, editor at Bloomberg business Week.

0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Interacted Brokers is a sponsor of Bloomberg Radio and at

0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Television. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Massier

0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:09.920
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:12.199
<v Speaker 1>a lot of our Bloomberg audience is certainly familiar with

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 1>our next guests. They are the host of the Odd

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Lots podcast, not other than Bloomberg News executive editors Joe

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 1>Wisenthal and Tracy Allaway. On this week's episode of Odd Lots,

0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 1>they speak with Credit Suite short term interest rate strategists

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.919
<v Speaker 1>Zoltan posts Are. The podcast is the subject of today's

0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:31.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Big Take. It's all about Russia's FX reserves following

0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.080
<v Speaker 1>sanctions against the country for their invasion of Ukraine. Here's

0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:38.360
<v Speaker 1>an excerpt from the podcast. The present situation has elements

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.480
<v Speaker 1>of a little bit of everything. I think it has,

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:46.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, definitely a local currency crisis, a local bank

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 1>funding crisis, you know a little bit of crisis of

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.359
<v Speaker 1>FX reserves where typically we are used to situations where

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>central banks that show they have something, they don't have it,

0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:57.800
<v Speaker 1>and then you know, the market gets surprised by it.

0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>For example, you know Southeast Asia this time around, you know,

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.080
<v Speaker 1>the central bank, you've had a lot of reserves, but

0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:07.200
<v Speaker 1>then these were seized. So I think it's, uh, it's

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.159
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty uncharted territories, and it's and it's hard to

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.320
<v Speaker 1>tell which fadus is going to go from here. That

0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.200
<v Speaker 1>was credits We short term interest rate strategist Zoltan post

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:19.560
<v Speaker 1>Are speaking with the host of the Bloomberg Abots podcast,

0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.840
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News executive editors Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway, who

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>joined Katie and Me right now. Tracy, I want to

0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:27.720
<v Speaker 1>start with you, what does what does Postar mean when

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:32.800
<v Speaker 1>he says that the bank band threatens the dollars status? Sure, well,

0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean it sounds very dramatic, but at this point are,

0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.600
<v Speaker 1>I think our perceptions of drama have probably changed a

0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>little bit. And Salton isn't the only one saying something

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.959
<v Speaker 1>along these lines, but he's basically arguing that there are

0:20:43.960 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot of central banks out in the world that

0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:49.560
<v Speaker 1>hold their reserves in dollar denominated assets, and typically these

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 1>dollars nominated assets are held by another central bank or

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.239
<v Speaker 1>another financial institution. And when you get these types of

0:20:56.560 --> 0:21:01.720
<v Speaker 1>tensions that explode into very extreme saying auctions, suddenly those

0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:04.960
<v Speaker 1>dollar denominated assets that you thought actually belonged to you

0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.399
<v Speaker 1>might not no longer, might no longer be accessible, and

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 1>might essentially not be yours anymore. And this seems to

0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:13.199
<v Speaker 1>be not just what's happened with Russia, but also what

0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:15.880
<v Speaker 1>we saw with Afghanistan when the US said that actually,

0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:18.560
<v Speaker 1>the Taliban isn't going to have access to those reserves.

0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:21.280
<v Speaker 1>And so naturally, if you're a central bank, thinking well,

0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:24.080
<v Speaker 1>at some point, maybe I might have a problem with

0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:27.399
<v Speaker 1>the US, you might be rethinking what you're actually going

0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:29.760
<v Speaker 1>to hold your reserves in. Okay, So I have some

0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 1>ancient history to bring up, because in April I wrote

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.840
<v Speaker 1>for Business Week magazine for the first time in a decade,

0:21:36.840 --> 0:21:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the world central banks are looking beyond the dollar for

0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:41.560
<v Speaker 1>their currency reserves. And I remember I was a baby

0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 1>currency reporter at the time, and all the strategists told me,

0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, you're going to write the story every five years.

0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.200
<v Speaker 1>But for better or for worse, it feels like, especially

0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:54.760
<v Speaker 1>central banks reserve managers, they can't quit the dollar. I mean,

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 1>what truly is different this time around? And I that's

0:21:57.520 --> 0:22:01.320
<v Speaker 1>a ridiculous question to ask, but is this an enough No,

0:22:01.680 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a great question to ask. And the

0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting thing is, you know, for a long time, I

0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:09.760
<v Speaker 1>think people have talked about this idea of the dollars demises,

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.040
<v Speaker 1>like a warning like oh, if the US spends too

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.760
<v Speaker 1>much or too much qui or something like that, and

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 1>the you know this, this could be trouble for the dollar.

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:20.199
<v Speaker 1>But the problem has been the opposite. It's not that

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the dollars, but week the problem is that it continues

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:24.120
<v Speaker 1>to be too strong and no one can get off

0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:26.439
<v Speaker 1>of it. But I think, look, if you have this

0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:31.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of like forced break where Russia isn't a massive economy,

0:22:31.480 --> 0:22:35.440
<v Speaker 1>but you know it's a fairly rich country with substantial

0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:37.840
<v Speaker 1>effets reserves, and you have a country being told what

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:40.480
<v Speaker 1>you thought was your own currency, or with what you

0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:43.800
<v Speaker 1>thought is your own money is no longer your own money.

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:46.399
<v Speaker 1>Then I do think like that is a sort of

0:22:46.720 --> 0:22:49.159
<v Speaker 1>big thing. That's what you know, that's at least you know.

0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:53.480
<v Speaker 1>In Sulton's argument, that's new, that's different, and it's not

0:22:53.520 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 1>gonna happen overnight. It's not gonna happen over year. Someone's

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna write that story five years from now. But if

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>you think, like, well, what could star the process of

0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>a rethink, maybe it's something like this. So Tracy, what

0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:06.560
<v Speaker 1>replaces the dollar for central banks? Well, I mean this

0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:08.320
<v Speaker 1>is the key question. And this kind of gets back

0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:10.480
<v Speaker 1>to the point that Katie was making. There aren't that

0:23:10.520 --> 0:23:14.680
<v Speaker 1>many alternatives. So Russia does hold a lot of gold reserves,

0:23:14.720 --> 0:23:16.600
<v Speaker 1>and this is also something to remember. When they have

0:23:16.680 --> 0:23:19.720
<v Speaker 1>the physical gold in Russia, they do. I think it's

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.160
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be in a bank fault somewhere in Moscow.

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:24.879
<v Speaker 1>But I'm just parroting um what Sultan said, and he

0:23:24.920 --> 0:23:28.720
<v Speaker 1>was parroting a report as well. But I mean this

0:23:28.800 --> 0:23:31.080
<v Speaker 1>is a key thing to understand. Right we say like, oh,

0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:33.720
<v Speaker 1>it's crazy, people would get off the dollar and the

0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:36.000
<v Speaker 1>dollar's dominance would be threatened in this way. But to

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:39.760
<v Speaker 1>some extent, this is something that Russia already understood. They

0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:42.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of prepared for this moment. They did shift out

0:23:42.640 --> 0:23:46.160
<v Speaker 1>of a lot of dollar denominated assets, including treasuries. They

0:23:46.200 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 1>did accumulate a lot of gold, seeing that as an alternative,

0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:52.680
<v Speaker 1>a type of money that the U. S couldn't necessarily affect.

0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:56.199
<v Speaker 1>But you're absolutely right, there aren't that many assets. You know,

0:23:56.280 --> 0:24:00.480
<v Speaker 1>there's a problem of a safe haven asset short even

0:24:00.480 --> 0:24:02.800
<v Speaker 1>though we it seems like the world's drowning in debt,

0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:05.920
<v Speaker 1>but to some extent, we actually don't have a lot

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.640
<v Speaker 1>of really safe collateral, and most of what's out there

0:24:08.720 --> 0:24:13.000
<v Speaker 1>is probably things like U S treasuries, coin maybe. You know.

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:17.359
<v Speaker 1>The other element that makes this hard is any country

0:24:17.480 --> 0:24:21.000
<v Speaker 1>or any company that sells anything wants to sell to

0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:23.159
<v Speaker 1>the US. Because the US is the richest country in

0:24:23.160 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 1>the world, and it has this uh, you know, massive

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 1>consuming class, the US middle class, and so you know,

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:32.919
<v Speaker 1>it's nice to say like, oh, like put in you know,

0:24:33.080 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 1>have our money somewhere else, but that you know, that

0:24:35.960 --> 0:24:38.480
<v Speaker 1>still raises the problem. You want to sell to the US.

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Anyone does you want to sell oil to the US?

0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:44.200
<v Speaker 1>You want to sell refined products, commodities, physical goods, uh,

0:24:44.480 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>consumer goods. You're gonna get dollars, and so you know

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 1>that someone is going to have to hold them. You know,

0:24:50.000 --> 0:24:51.840
<v Speaker 1>there's you could have this sort of like hotpitat or

0:24:51.920 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>you send them to someone else. But the other thing is,

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, the other obvious currency that people talk about,

0:24:56.880 --> 0:24:59.400
<v Speaker 1>of course is the Chinese un. But right now there

0:24:59.400 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>aren't enough and the Chinese eun is not international enough,

0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:06.080
<v Speaker 1>it's not convertible enough, it's uh, the China doesn't run

0:25:06.080 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>a significant enough current account deficit to create lots of

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>uns denominated assets. So while it's a big country with

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>a very large consuming class, the financial assets aren't there. Guys,

0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:19.399
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have to leave it there. Joe Wisenthal and

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:21.760
<v Speaker 1>Tracy Halloway. They are the co host of the Bloomberg

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:24.239
<v Speaker 1>Aubots podcast. Check out their podcast at Bloomberg dot com

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:26.399
<v Speaker 1>or wherever get you get your podcast. Check out Today's

0:25:26.400 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 1>Big Take two. It's at Bloomberg dot com. Yeah, I'll

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:36.800
<v Speaker 1>bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please,

0:25:36.880 --> 0:25:42.639
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the ride. I want to drive. It's a

0:25:42.640 --> 0:25:52.359
<v Speaker 1>good question. This is the drive to the clothes on

0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:55.199
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. All right, less than ten minutes until the

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:58.800
<v Speaker 1>market clos on this Wednesday, March Sewod. Let's go to

0:25:58.880 --> 0:26:01.360
<v Speaker 1>one of our go to voices, Amanda Gotti, chief investment

0:26:01.359 --> 0:26:03.880
<v Speaker 1>officer at p n C Asset Management Group. She joins

0:26:03.960 --> 0:26:06.119
<v Speaker 1>us once again on the phone from Philadelphia. Amanda, how

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:09.280
<v Speaker 1>are you. I'm doing well. How are you doing? We're

0:26:09.280 --> 0:26:11.720
<v Speaker 1>doing well. Um, We're trying to make sense of the

0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 1>risk on mood today. Obviously a lot of that has

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:17.520
<v Speaker 1>to do with j Pal's commentary to the House Financial

0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 1>Services Committee earlier in the day. But wow, quite a

0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:25.440
<v Speaker 1>reversal from what we saw yesterday. The volatility uh certainly

0:26:25.480 --> 0:26:31.440
<v Speaker 1>continues to royal markets. Um, how are you reading into it, Amanda? Well,

0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:33.919
<v Speaker 1>I think that you you hit the head uh for

0:26:34.080 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 1>sure on in terms of Pal's testimony and commentary that

0:26:37.840 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 1>that is the single biggest driver in terms of the

0:26:40.440 --> 0:26:43.840
<v Speaker 1>positive and more optimistic mood today for the market and

0:26:44.040 --> 0:26:48.399
<v Speaker 1>just a really continued period of heightened uncertainty. We finally

0:26:48.440 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 1>got some semblance of certainty coming out of Powell. And

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:55.200
<v Speaker 1>we've been saying really all along over the course of

0:26:55.240 --> 0:26:57.919
<v Speaker 1>this year so far. You know, absent what's happening with

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.840
<v Speaker 1>Russia and Ukraine. That said policy was going to be

0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:03.800
<v Speaker 1>the key to the market pass forward, and you know,

0:27:03.880 --> 0:27:06.880
<v Speaker 1>we have been all over the place as a market

0:27:07.000 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 1>and as a consensus in terms of trying to figure

0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:11.880
<v Speaker 1>out what that March rate hike was going to look at.

0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:14.840
<v Speaker 1>There was a commentary about, you know, doing something before

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:17.399
<v Speaker 1>the March meeting. Then the market had priced in a

0:27:17.440 --> 0:27:20.439
<v Speaker 1>foregone conclusion of a fifty basis point hike, and so

0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:24.320
<v Speaker 1>getting some clarity around what action the Fed is most

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.760
<v Speaker 1>likely to take I think is really important in terms

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:28.840
<v Speaker 1>of the pass forward. They have to take a step,

0:27:29.160 --> 0:27:32.200
<v Speaker 1>they have to you know, tighten policy here. But this

0:27:32.280 --> 0:27:34.680
<v Speaker 1>is very digestible as the first step for the market

0:27:34.680 --> 0:27:37.479
<v Speaker 1>and you're seeing that in the release rally today. Well, Amanda,

0:27:37.520 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 1>all over the place when it comes to market. Uh,

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:41.960
<v Speaker 1>that definitely feels like what we've been watching. And I'm

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:44.199
<v Speaker 1>curious to hear what you make of the reaction that

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:47.480
<v Speaker 1>we saw in the bond markets to Palace testimony, because

0:27:47.680 --> 0:27:50.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I see the two year treasury up, yield

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 1>up a lot, I see the ten year treasury yield

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:55.920
<v Speaker 1>up a lot. Uh. Could we say that there were

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:59.720
<v Speaker 1>any hawkish undertones here. What's going on? Well, I think

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 1>volatile is the equity markets have been the bigger story

0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:07.400
<v Speaker 1>in terms of volatility continues to be in fixed income markets,

0:28:07.440 --> 0:28:10.560
<v Speaker 1>even in the face of no moves on the policy front.

0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Market driven interest rates have been all over the map,

0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 1>not only this year but since the onset of the pandemic.

0:28:18.160 --> 0:28:21.560
<v Speaker 1>We've been on a roller coaster ride these last two weeks.

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:24.560
<v Speaker 1>In particular, Pen, you're peaked out. I think it's two

0:28:24.600 --> 0:28:27.040
<v Speaker 1>oh four just in the last two weeks, and so

0:28:27.119 --> 0:28:30.320
<v Speaker 1>we've been up and down really significant, if not record

0:28:30.320 --> 0:28:33.320
<v Speaker 1>breaking moves on an intra day basis. I think a

0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of market participants were reading following yields as the

0:28:37.880 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, dramatic flights of safety. Our take on is

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:44.960
<v Speaker 1>it's just the market wrestling with trying to reprice um,

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:47.640
<v Speaker 1>the policy backdrop and what the set is ultimately going

0:28:47.680 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 1>to do on a day by day basis. And so

0:28:50.520 --> 0:28:53.640
<v Speaker 1>we think today, you know, the move higher in yields

0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:57.000
<v Speaker 1>is reversing what happened yesterday. UM And again it's the

0:28:57.000 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>function of what Powell said. Again, it's not a dent,

0:28:59.760 --> 0:29:02.480
<v Speaker 1>sir and t but a lot more clarity around what's

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:05.200
<v Speaker 1>likely to happen in two weeks, since I think the

0:29:06.240 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 1>fixed income market, bond market really just trying to price

0:29:09.360 --> 0:29:13.240
<v Speaker 1>that in or just accordingly in advance of the meeting. Man,

0:29:13.280 --> 0:29:15.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm going through the notes that you were kind enough

0:29:15.200 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>to send our producer Paul Brennan here, and it just

0:29:17.600 --> 0:29:20.400
<v Speaker 1>goes to show how quickly oil has risen. Because your

0:29:20.400 --> 0:29:23.200
<v Speaker 1>notes here say that brun Brent is at one oh five,

0:29:23.640 --> 0:29:27.160
<v Speaker 1>but Brent today topped one fift after the market closed

0:29:27.160 --> 0:29:31.040
<v Speaker 1>for the first time since two thousand eight. What's going on? Yeah,

0:29:31.120 --> 0:29:33.360
<v Speaker 1>we're we're in this. I have to laugh, but we're

0:29:33.400 --> 0:29:35.880
<v Speaker 1>in this mode where I'm like putting notes together and

0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:38.200
<v Speaker 1>ripping them up and throwing them in the trash on

0:29:38.240 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 1>an hourly basis here. So so yeah, these were notes

0:29:41.720 --> 0:29:44.000
<v Speaker 1>from from this morning, and of course it's been a

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:47.640
<v Speaker 1>very wild ride. I mean, I think the net effect

0:29:47.680 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>here is a lot of concern across the energy complex

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:58.760
<v Speaker 1>about potential structural impairment, meaningful disruption to the energy complex

0:29:58.800 --> 0:30:01.960
<v Speaker 1>and oil production. I think, you know, you're seeing the

0:30:02.000 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 1>fixation on it, certainly from policymakers, and that they're trying

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:08.560
<v Speaker 1>to do everything they can in terms of messaging in

0:30:08.680 --> 0:30:12.680
<v Speaker 1>terms of implementing sanctions to get around that and not

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:16.360
<v Speaker 1>fully shut off Russian oil production to the rest of

0:30:16.400 --> 0:30:19.880
<v Speaker 1>the globe, because they know how disruptive, how systemic that

0:30:19.960 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 1>that can ultimately be. That being said, you know, we

0:30:23.120 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 1>haven't gotten a lot of clarity and certainty on the

0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:29.280
<v Speaker 1>ripple effect what that might ultimately look like. I mean,

0:30:29.280 --> 0:30:32.480
<v Speaker 1>the swifts in that's going into effect isn't a blanket,

0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:36.680
<v Speaker 1>it's much more targeted. I think in that way that helps, uh,

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:38.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, frame out that we're not going to shut

0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:43.000
<v Speaker 1>off Russian oil production completely here, but we're not getting

0:30:43.000 --> 0:30:45.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of other clarity in terms of levers that

0:30:45.560 --> 0:30:48.840
<v Speaker 1>are likely to be pulled. The i A releasing sixty

0:30:48.880 --> 0:30:52.320
<v Speaker 1>million barrels yesterday certainly served to help to a degree.

0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Ope OPEC plus meeting this morning didn't move the needle

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:59.920
<v Speaker 1>at all. It was basically irrelevant that that production agreement

0:31:00.080 --> 0:31:03.520
<v Speaker 1>was well in effect prior to what's happening with Russia

0:31:03.520 --> 0:31:06.360
<v Speaker 1>and Ukraine. And so my take on this is they

0:31:06.400 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 1>probably could have done more. They should have done more,

0:31:09.760 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 1>that is OPEC plus, And so I think you're seeing

0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:15.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, prices move in response and not getting that

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:18.840
<v Speaker 1>offset there from earlier today, and Amanda, when we talk

0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:23.800
<v Speaker 1>about energy and oil markets, clearly thoughts go to energy stocks,

0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:25.920
<v Speaker 1>but I also think about the high yeld credit market

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:28.520
<v Speaker 1>because if you look at those indexes, there's a lot

0:31:28.680 --> 0:31:31.920
<v Speaker 1>of energy exposure there. What are we seeing in that market?

0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:34.400
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't seem like there's been a ton of stress.

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:39.640
<v Speaker 1>There has not been, and that actually is a fundamental

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:43.520
<v Speaker 1>bright spot, I think as it relates to the broader

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:49.160
<v Speaker 1>economy and the broader backdrop. We've seen credit spread specifically

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:52.120
<v Speaker 1>for high yield wide and but we've been sitting at

0:31:52.120 --> 0:31:54.680
<v Speaker 1>record lows, you know, over the course of the last

0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.560
<v Speaker 1>twelve to eighteen months, and so widening on a relative

0:31:57.560 --> 0:32:00.960
<v Speaker 1>basis doesn't mean all that much. If that TOBE last week,

0:32:02.080 --> 0:32:05.480
<v Speaker 1>high yield spreads narrow, believe it or not, just despite

0:32:05.520 --> 0:32:09.440
<v Speaker 1>all of the turmoil, and so our read on this is, yes,

0:32:09.800 --> 0:32:12.800
<v Speaker 1>there is a significant component as it relates to energy,

0:32:13.280 --> 0:32:16.160
<v Speaker 1>but we're not seeing signs of acute dress showing up

0:32:16.200 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 1>in US credit markets. That is, volatility is very significant

0:32:19.600 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 1>in the short run, but it's likely to settle um

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 1>longer term. It's not a fundamental breakdown as of yet.

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:29.360
<v Speaker 1>Amanda Gotti, chief investment Officer at p NC Asset Management Group.

0:32:29.440 --> 0:32:31.960
<v Speaker 1>She joins us on the phone from Philadelphia. Amanda, always

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:33.520
<v Speaker 1>great to speak with you. Thank you so much for

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:37.320
<v Speaker 1>taking the time. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:32:37.440 --> 0:32:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:32:41.040 --> 0:32:42.719
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0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:45.800
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0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 1>Sar to Bloomberg Global News