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Speaker 1: Fly from the Bloomberg Interactive Burger Studios. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break for Thursday, September twenty nine two. Coming up

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Speaker 1: this hour, Hurricane Ian rips across Florida as one of

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Speaker 1: the strongest storms ever to hit the US mainland. The

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Speaker 1: Pound resumes its fall as the UK holds firm on

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Speaker 1: its fiscal plans, US future slide. Treasury yields rise following

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Speaker 1: yesterday's Wall Street rally, and thousands of Amazon workers are

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Speaker 1: getting races. The New York City Council is deciding whether

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Speaker 1: the bands solitary confinement in jails. Plus, the US Senate

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Speaker 1: is ready to pass the bill that will keep the

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Speaker 1: government open. I'm Michael barn More Ahead, I'm John Stash

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Speaker 1: Hour and sports Aaron Judge hit his record time sixty

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Speaker 1: first abroad and Yankee went in Toronto, a big comeback

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Speaker 1: win for the men. That's all trendy Ahead on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak on Bloomberg E Live in Treo, New York, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: on Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Syrius XM one nineteen and

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Speaker 1: around the World Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and

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Speaker 1: via the Bloomberg Business. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar and

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Speaker 1: I'm pared Moscow. US Dock Index futures are lower this morning.

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Speaker 1: We are coming up to five o one on Wall Street,

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Speaker 1: and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the

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Speaker 1: trading day. On Bloomberg. SNP futures down forty four points

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Speaker 1: this morning, Down futures down three hundred twenty six and

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Speaker 1: Nastack future is following one hundred sixty two decks in

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Speaker 1: Germany's down one point seven percent. Ten year treasury down

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds, yell three point eight four percent, and they

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Speaker 1: yield on the two year four point two zero percent. Nathan,

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Speaker 1: all right, Karen, we'll have one of the markets in

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Speaker 1: a minute, but we want to get you the latest

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Speaker 1: on Hurricane Ian. First, it crashed into Florida yesterday, bringing

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Speaker 1: massive storm search and knocking out power to more than

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Speaker 1: two million homes and businesses. President Biden says the federal

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Speaker 1: government stands ready to help. That includes dis fashion hundreds

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Speaker 1: of female personnel and activating thousands of National Guard members.

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Speaker 1: I've also developed the searching risk the team and deploy

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Speaker 1: them Mulbible federalisy season, and then they're already on the

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Speaker 1: ground and ready to hillp President Biden is also urging

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Speaker 1: Florida residents to follow all mornings from local officials. Ian

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Speaker 1: has weakened since it hit landed is now a tropical

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Speaker 1: storm with top wind speeds currently around sixty five miles

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Speaker 1: per hour. Let's get more on the track now with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg meteorologist Robed Caroline, Nathan Karen and Ian now affecting

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Speaker 1: central and northeastern Florida. It is moving off towards the

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Speaker 1: north and east. This morning. It will bring wind gus

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Speaker 1: over sixty miles an hour two portions of northeastern Florida. Now,

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Speaker 1: the system is forecast to move out over the waters

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Speaker 1: of the Atlantic and it may actually regain some strength

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Speaker 1: before moving back inland over Georgia and the Carolinas in

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Speaker 1: the next thirty six hours. Again, it continues to produce

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Speaker 1: prodigious rainfall. We're expect anywhere from five to ten inches

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Speaker 1: of rain north of the storm today, with additional rainfall

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Speaker 1: into the weekend. Yesterday, it went ashore in southwestern Florida

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Speaker 1: with winds of over a hundred and fifty miles an

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Speaker 1: hour and a storm surge that costs some historic flooding

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Speaker 1: in the Naples area. Also are around Fort Myers, Fort

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Speaker 1: Myers Beach, Vanita Beach, all those areas for a significant flooding.

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Speaker 1: Nathan and Karen, All right, grab, thank you, and of

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Speaker 1: course I'll be checking in with Bloomberg meteorologists Robbed Caroline

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Speaker 1: throughout the morning right here on Bloomberg Radio. And now

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Speaker 1: back to the volatile markets. We're seeing the pound snap

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Speaker 1: a two day gain following that historic bond buying program

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Speaker 1: from the Bank of England. They get the very latest

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Speaker 1: live from London with the Bloomberg's hun parts. Good morning, En,

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Speaker 1: Good morning Karen, Nathan. After yesterday's central bank driven rally,

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Speaker 1: UK stock, sovereign bonds and the pounds all lower this morning.

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Speaker 1: Prominister Liz Trust today defending her government's huge fiscal stimulus package,

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Speaker 1: blaming global economic pressures for the market fallout from her

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Speaker 1: announcement last week. She says the tax cuts, the biggest

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Speaker 1: in fifty years, are the right plan for the UK.

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Speaker 1: Today's slide puts the pounds on track for its worst

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Speaker 1: month since Britain voted to leave the European Union more

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Speaker 1: than six years ago. In London. I'm you and part

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Speaker 1: Sploomboo Daybreak, Are you and thank you? Former US Treasury

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Speaker 1: Secretary Larry Summers the weighing in on the turmoil and markets.

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Speaker 1: He's welcoming intervention from the Bank of England, but says

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Speaker 1: the UK is still facing serious issues. I think it

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Speaker 1: was the right thing to do given the technical factors

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Speaker 1: that are that had arisen UH in the market, and

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Speaker 1: it's obviously brought some important stability to the guilt market.

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Speaker 1: It does not resolve any of the fundamental contradictions in

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Speaker 1: UH British policy. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summer spoke with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg hours after the Bank of England pledged unlimited purchases

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Speaker 1: of long dated government bonds. Well, Nathan back here in

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Speaker 1: the US, the White House is alarmed over the market

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Speaker 1: turmoil triggered by the new UK Now it's encouraging Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister list Trust to dial back or economic plans to

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Speaker 1: get details now from Bloomberg's Amy Morris from our ninety

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Speaker 1: nine one newsroom in Washington. The plunge in UK assets

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Speaker 1: earlier this week contributed to declines in US treasuries, sources

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Speaker 1: tell Bloomberg News. Treasury officials are concerned at the volatility

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Speaker 1: in the markets, and they're working through the I m

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Speaker 1: F to put more pressure on Trust's government. Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen downplay the turbulence, but Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo

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Speaker 1: called Trust's approach of cutting taxes while increasing spending misguided.

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Speaker 1: Trust's government argues it's program will boost long term growth

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Speaker 1: in Washington, I'm maybe more as Bloomberg day break, Okamy,

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Speaker 1: thank you. We have some personnel news coming out of Washington.

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Speaker 1: Sources say Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has told the White

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Speaker 1: House she will stay past the November elections. Her desire

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Speaker 1: to stay comes as the Biden administration prepares for potential

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Speaker 1: cabinet and other senior personnel changes. Those decisions may depend

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Speaker 1: on how well or poorly Democrats do in the elections. Meantime,

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Speaker 1: a House proposal to restrict stock trading by government officials

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Speaker 1: has hit a snag. Nathan the bill Woodker tail stock

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Speaker 1: ownership and trading by members of Congress, the president, vice president,

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court justices, and other high ranking officials, but it's

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Speaker 1: currently being held up by Democratic in fighting. The bill's

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Speaker 1: sponsors introduced the legislation yesterday, but multiple House officials familiar

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Speaker 1: with discussions said any floor action on the measure has

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Speaker 1: been shelved, at least for now. Lawmakers are scheduled to

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Speaker 1: leave Washington this week until after the November election. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's turn to geopolitics, now, Karen, the US wants to

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Speaker 1: resume talks with China. Ambassador Nicholas Burns is calling on

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Speaker 1: the nation to reopen discussions that were halted after how

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Speaker 1: Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We do not seek conflict,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna try to compete with China vigorously and

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Speaker 1: then work with China where we can, and we hope

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Speaker 1: the Chinese will reciprocate. They've frozen a lot of our

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Speaker 1: dialogues since Speaker Pelosi's visit. Our message to the Chinese is,

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Speaker 1: let's talk, open these dialogues and let's move forward. Ambassador

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Speaker 1: Nicholas burn spoke of the Bilking Institute Asia Summit in Singapore.

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Speaker 1: He says the US needs store to China on issues

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Speaker 1: like climate change, in health, and incorporate news. Nathan. Amazon

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Speaker 1: is boosting pay for hourly workers in the US. The

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Speaker 1: online retailing giants said the move O raised the average

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Speaker 1: starting wage for most frontline employees and warehousing and transportation

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Speaker 1: to nineteen dollars an hour. Bloomberg Day Breaks brought to

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Speaker 1: you by SEI Asset managers don't get results that are

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Speaker 1: off the charts when their solutions are off the shelf.

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Speaker 1: Learned how SEI is operating platform can turn infrastructure into

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Speaker 1: a competitive advantage at se i C, dot Com, slash Tech.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg and it's now five oh seven on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. We're see twenty minute delays on the New

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Speaker 1: Jersey Transit Northeast Quarter and it's fifty five degrees in

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Speaker 1: Central Park. Michael Barr has more on what's going on

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Speaker 1: in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael,

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Speaker 1: Good morning Nathan. The New York City Council is deciding

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Speaker 1: whether the band solitary confinement in jails. Demonstrators on both

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Speaker 1: sides clashed on the steps of City Hall ahead of

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Speaker 1: a hearing on the bill. Any Bosco of the Correction

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Speaker 1: Officers Benevolent Association says the notion that we're torturing individuals

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Speaker 1: in our system is not the case. However, Democratic City

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Speaker 1: Council member Tiffany Common argued we need to know what

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Speaker 1: is the route of the violence. A New Jersey bank

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Speaker 1: agreed to pay thirteen million dollars to resolve claims of

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Speaker 1: discriminatory lending practices. Lakeland Bank has been ranked best bank

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey, but U S Attorney Phillips so Lingers

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Speaker 1: says that's not the case for people of color and

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Speaker 1: at least three counties. If you lived in a black

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Speaker 1: or Hispanic neighborhood in these counties, you likely have little

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Speaker 1: opportunity to apply for, let alone obtain a mortgage from

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Speaker 1: Lakeland Bank. U S Attorney Phillips Lingers said Lakeland Bank

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Speaker 1: red line these neighborhoods refused to service them in violation

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Speaker 1: of the Fair Housing Act. The U. S. Senate is

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Speaker 1: ready to pass the bill that will keep the government

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Speaker 1: open and spending until that least the middle of December.

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Speaker 1: Democratic Representative Jim mcgovernor of Massachusetts, thinks the government funding

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Speaker 1: bill will pass by tomorrow. We're gonna do everything we

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Speaker 1: can to make sure we don't have a government shutdown.

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Speaker 1: Remember the last time we had a government shutdown, the

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Speaker 1: Republicans controlled the White House, the House, and the Senate.

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Speaker 1: I mean that was irresponsible. We would we would We

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Speaker 1: would not do that. And the fact of the matter

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Speaker 1: is there's a lot of stuff that we I would

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Speaker 1: like to see in a cr and there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of stuff, you know, that I would like to add on,

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Speaker 1: and I know I can't get it best to Senate.

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Speaker 1: So we have to do the best we can working

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Speaker 1: with the people that we we have to deal with.

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Speaker 1: Representative McGovern spoke on sound On, which airs at five

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Speaker 1: pm weekdays on Bloomberg. Both parties agreed to a temporary

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Speaker 1: continuing spending bill that will include disaster raid for whether

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Speaker 1: batter to Kentucky, Alabama, Texas, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Vice

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Speaker 1: President Kamala Harris is in South Korea. Harris met with

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Speaker 1: the South Korean president to reinforce the US South Korean Alliance.

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Speaker 1: For seven decades, the alliance between the United States and

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Speaker 1: the Republic of Korea has been a lynchpin of security

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Speaker 1: and prosperity. Vice President Harris later traveled to the demilitarized

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Speaker 1: zone that separates North and South Korea. Global News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake,

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Speaker 1: powered by more than dred journalists and analysts. More than

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Speaker 1: a hundred twenty countries. Michael barn This is Bloomberg Nather.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Michael. Up to five ten on All Street Time

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Speaker 1: for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John stash Our,

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Speaker 1: Good Marrian Nathan. Perhaps you've heard Aaron Judge has been

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Speaker 1: trying to hit his sixty feet over run of the

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Speaker 1: season seven straight games where networks broke into programming. The

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Speaker 1: show is that Fats his mother and Roger Marris's son

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Speaker 1: crossed borders to watch his at bats and in Toronto

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Speaker 1: seventh any Tim masa on the mound? John Stirling w

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Speaker 1: F there goes did he loved to a time? Till

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Speaker 1: Us far Good has gone number sixty one. He times

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Speaker 1: Roger Maris for the American League single season record, who

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Speaker 1: with sixty one home run hits a two run Judge

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Speaker 1: and Black Yankee and American League record. Of course, the

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Speaker 1: reason this has gotten so much attention it's the so

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Speaker 1: called clean record. The only ones that hit more in

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Speaker 1: the season Barry Bonds, Bark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, all of

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Speaker 1: their seasons tainted by steroid youth. Judge has seven games

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Speaker 1: left try and hit his sixty second. The outcome the

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Speaker 1: game fairly meaningless. That's why Aaron Brune had Anthony Rizzo

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Speaker 1: managed the game. Yankees beat the Blue Jays eight to three. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: want to win for the Mets, this game very meaningful

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Speaker 1: as the Mets try to win the nl East. That

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Speaker 1: means to buy avoiding the Dodgers until the NLCS. They

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Speaker 1: trailed Miami for nothing seventh any Edwardo Escobar to the

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Speaker 1: rescue two run omer, seventh any game time two run

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Speaker 1: single on the eighth game winning rb I hit in

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Speaker 1: the tenth Mets won five four, just as Atlanta lost

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Speaker 1: in Tennings and Washington. So the three game series that

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Speaker 1: begins tomorrow in Atlanta starts with the Mets one game ahead.

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Speaker 1: Whether it could be a real issue for the series Saturday,

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Speaker 1: especially jetsonated officials. Zach Wilson will return from his knee

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Speaker 1: injury and starts Sunday in Pittsburgh. John Scash at whar

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports, Nathan, thank you, john S andp futures are

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Speaker 1: down thirty four point Stouth futures down two undred forty seven,

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Speaker 1: nest At futures down a hundred twenty eight points. The

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Speaker 1: pound at one point zero eight to one against the dollar.

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Speaker 1: We look at the market volatile city Next with Patrick Armstrong,

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Speaker 1: chief investment Officer at Gloury Mewell. Bloomberg day Break is

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Speaker 1: Philanthropists dot n y C. Markets headlines and breaking news

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Out and at Bloomberg Quick Take, He's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Lash and I'm Carrod Moscow and risk off.

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Speaker 1: Sentiment is returning to markets as concerns about inflation and

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Speaker 1: the risk of the global recession over shadows the Bank

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Speaker 1: of Englet's move to restore calm. You check the markets

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Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg Right

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Speaker 1: NEWSNP future is down thirty one points down, futures down

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Speaker 1: two twenty four, nasty, futures down one hundred seventeen, and

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Speaker 1: the decks in Germany's down one point to first at ten.

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Speaker 1: Your treasury down twenty thirty seconds, You three point eight

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Speaker 1: five percent. They yield on the two year four point

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Speaker 1: to zero percent. Nimex screwed oil is down a quarter

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Speaker 1: percent or twenty one cents at eighty one cents of barrel.

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Speaker 1: Comex school down nine tenths per cent or fifteen dollars

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Speaker 1: twenty cents at sixteen fifty four eight announce the euro

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Speaker 1: point zero against the dollar, British pound one point zero

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Speaker 1: eight three one, and the yen at one forty four

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Speaker 1: point seven zero. Looking at bitcoin, it's down seven tenths

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Speaker 1: percent at nineteen thousand, four hundred dollars. And as a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash, now here's Michael Barr with more. I'm

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Speaker 1: what's going on around the world, Muddle, good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 1: Hurricane Ian has left the path of destruction in southwest Florida,

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Speaker 1: trapping people and flooded homes, damaging the roof of a

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Speaker 1: hospital intensive care unit, and knocking out power to about

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Speaker 1: two million people. I now a tropical storm is now

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Speaker 1: aiming for the Atlantic coast. The Biden administration blasted Russia's

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Speaker 1: attempt to legitimize its control of Ukrainian territories through what

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Speaker 1: they're calling a stay age vote to appear as if

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Speaker 1: there is Russian loyalty in these towns. In baseball, the

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Speaker 1: Yankees beat the Blue Jays eight three, but more importantly,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Judge hit his sixty first home run, tying Roger

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Speaker 1: Merris for the a L record. The Mets, Nationals and

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Speaker 1: Giants one. The Red Sox beat the Orioles three one.

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Speaker 1: The A's lost. Global news twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 1: on here and on Bloomberg Quick Tank, powered by more

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Speaker 1: than twenty seven hundred journalist and analysts more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg. Nathan alright, Michael,

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Speaker 1: thank you. It is five nineteen on Wall Street Live

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Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak,

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Speaker 1: and we're joined this morning by Patrick Armstrong, chief investment

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Speaker 1: officer at PLUIMI Wealth. As we see a risk off

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Speaker 1: mood return to this market, particularly given the crisis happening

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Speaker 1: in the u K. How deep is this crisis of

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Speaker 1: confidence in Liz Trust's financial plan, Patrick, um, I think

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Speaker 1: you've seen it in the currency. You've seen it in

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Speaker 1: the guilt market and populous policies, which are basically promising

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Speaker 1: things that you can't afford. Worked very well when interest

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Speaker 1: rates were zero. Um, we're getting into an environment now

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Speaker 1: where the Bank of England is going to be probably

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Speaker 1: up to five three. So promising unfunded tax cuts and

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Speaker 1: promising spending, Um, it just doesn't make sense anymore, and

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Speaker 1: the markets reacting to that. So there's absolutely no confidence

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Speaker 1: in these policies right now. Is there contagion risk for

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Speaker 1: the broader economy? Is there contagious risk for the US

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Speaker 1: market with what's happening in the UK? Limited? Um, there's some,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's significant for the U S economy. Um.

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Speaker 1: The US market is impacted by the overall global interest

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Speaker 1: rate environment and the Bank of England basically buying longer

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Speaker 1: duration guilt seemed to push down treasury yields even yesterday

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So, Um, what the UK does, it's

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Speaker 1: pretty much it's bailing out its pension systems that basically

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Speaker 1: have a lot of liabilities they match with long duration guilt,

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Speaker 1: and some of those guilts fell thirty to fifty in

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Speaker 1: the last few days as a higher long term interest

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Speaker 1: rates are now discounted in their prices. Now we're seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot of selling in benchmark and long dated US

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Speaker 1: treasuries this morning what's driving that? Do you think, Um, well,

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Speaker 1: you've got persistent inflation, you've got big debts, you've got deficits,

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Speaker 1: and populism is still the policy that's working for most

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Speaker 1: Western governments. So the UK is had an extreme but

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Speaker 1: I think all Western governments are at risk basically with

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Speaker 1: their policies and the spending a lot and not really

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Speaker 1: wanting to increase taxes. Austerity never is mentioned anywhere, and

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Speaker 1: I think higher yields are probably a consequence of that.

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Speaker 1: That being said, I have closed my tenure shorts on

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Speaker 1: treasuries yesterday. So we've been short treasuries now for well

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Speaker 1: over a year, and we did close them as they

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Speaker 1: moved past three point date they got all the way

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Speaker 1: up to four percent yields, but we've closed that position

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Speaker 1: now because really yields at one point six percent, So, um,

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Speaker 1: that's very different from where we were a year ago

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Speaker 1: when we had negative real yields of Yeah, we have

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Speaker 1: the tenure yield right now is sitting at three point

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Speaker 1: five as you mentioned, it did breach four percent earlier

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Speaker 1: this week. Where do you see US treasury yields headed

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Speaker 1: at this point now that you've covered that short? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I actually think it's going to I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 1: if it does gravitate up towards four, but I think

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Speaker 1: the bulk of the move has happened now. UM, So

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if yields do move higher from here,

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Speaker 1: But I don't think you're going to have the sharp

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Speaker 1: move that we've had. Um. You are being compensated with

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Speaker 1: returns above inflation to invest in treasuries now, and for

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Speaker 1: years now, the only buyer of treasuries has been the FED.

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Speaker 1: The FED selling treasuries. But I think a real yields

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Speaker 1: where they are now, you will be enticing natural investment

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Speaker 1: demand as well. It's interesting because we keep hearing from

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Speaker 1: FED speakers doubling down on the need for higher for

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Speaker 1: longer interest rates to tamp down inflation. Are you looking

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Speaker 1: for a Fed pivot away from that stance anytime soon?

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Speaker 1: Not anytime soon. I think the market's perfectly discounted what

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Speaker 1: the Fed has said they're going to do, and I

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Speaker 1: actually think we've probably passed peak hawkishness from the Fed.

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Speaker 1: I think Powell's last press conference, he and the dots

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Speaker 1: that came out really showed a hawkish FED. The market

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Speaker 1: totally bought into it, and I don't think there's going

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Speaker 1: to be another move more hawkish than those dots are implying.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think they're going to move away from

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Speaker 1: them quickly either. So if the economy does deteriorate, or

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Speaker 1: if there is some sort of systemic risk coming from

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Speaker 1: a geopolitical event or a financial crisis in another country,

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Speaker 1: that the federal change course. But I think as as

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Speaker 1: things stand, they do intend to meet the dots. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think those dots will be revised higher. Not

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Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left here, Patrick, we keep hearing from

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Speaker 1: more banks raising their odds for the probability of a

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Speaker 1: recession of sparked by this FED. What's your call on that? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's probably tipped into likelihood now. So I

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Speaker 1: think UK and Europe we're in a recession now in

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter is going to be recession. Um the United States,

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Speaker 1: the employment situation is going to deteriorate. The higher interest

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Speaker 1: rates probably will start to have some impact unemployment. And

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Speaker 1: you see I see the U S flirting with a recession.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it will be significant, but it's definite

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Speaker 1: possibility and probably a slight probability, but I think it'll

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Speaker 1: be shallow flirting with recession. We'll leave it there. Thanks

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Speaker 1: as always, Patrick, great to get your thoughts. Patrick Armstrong

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Speaker 1: with us this morning, chief investment officer at Player Gramy Wealth.

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Speaker 1: As we take a look at the market slide continuing

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Speaker 1: this morning. We have SMP futures right now down thirty

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Speaker 1: two points down, futures down two or twenty eight. Nasdaq

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Speaker 1: futures are lower by a hundred twenty five points ten.

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Speaker 1: Your treasury is down twenty nine thirty seconds now, the

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Speaker 1: yield three point eight four percent, yield on the two

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Speaker 1: year four point to zero, and I'm excrude moving a

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Speaker 1: bit lower now down two tenths percent at eighty one

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Speaker 1: ninety six cents of barrel and the British pound one

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Speaker 1: point zero eight three nine against the dollar. You're listening

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh weather, sunshine today,

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Speaker 1: upper sixties of increasing clouds tomorrow, upper sixties, light rain

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Speaker 1: from Ian moves in Saturday. It's going to be rain

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Speaker 1: all day Sunday as well. Fifty five degrees. Currently broadcasting

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Speaker 1: live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg elov In freed to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: what All six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg sixty to

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Speaker 1: the country, Sirius XM to the one nineteen and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Business at and Bloomberg Radio dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. We

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Speaker 1: are just about four hours away from the open of

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Speaker 1: US trading. Let's get you up to date on the

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Speaker 1: news you need to know at this hour. Again. Ian

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Speaker 1: as week into a tropical storm after hitting Florida with

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Speaker 1: a deadly surge of water and catastrophic winds. About two

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Speaker 1: point three million homes are without power. They get the

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Speaker 1: very latest on the storm from Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Caroline,

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Speaker 1: Karen and Nathan. Ian tied for the fourth strongest tropical

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Speaker 1: weather system to ever strike the continental United States, made

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Speaker 1: landfall yesterday in southwestern Florida, with winds at a hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty miles an hour and an extensive storm surge

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Speaker 1: that caused very significant flooding across portions of southwestern Florida

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Speaker 1: from Naples to Venice. The storm is now well inland,

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Speaker 1: headed into a northeastern Florida. Big problem will be wind

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Speaker 1: gus today in excessive sixty miles and some torrential rain,

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Speaker 1: particularly on the northern side of the system into North Florida.

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Speaker 1: Karen and Nathan. All right, Rob, thank you. Will continue

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Speaker 1: checking in with Bloomberg meteorologist Dropped Carolin throughout the morning

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Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Radio. Now, let's talk markets. The pound

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Speaker 1: is resuming its slide after the Bank of England's emergency

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Speaker 1: bond buying program temporarily soothed concerns. This morning, UK Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Liz Trust once again to did a giant package

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Speaker 1: of unfunded tax cuts. We're seeing both stocks and bonds

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Speaker 1: in Europe fall this morning. Well here in the US, Nathan,

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Speaker 1: futures are lower following yesterday's Wall Street rally, which saw

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Speaker 1: the SNP five hundred snap of five day losing street.

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Speaker 1: Mac Mainley, as chief market strategist at Miller tay Back,

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Speaker 1: although we could get one big wash out here in

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Speaker 1: the next few days, I think we're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: bounce of the last for a week or two or

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Speaker 1: maybe even three, but that will find another opportunity to

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Speaker 1: raise some cash. And Miller Tayback Chief market strategist Matt

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Speaker 1: Mainlee said the sn P five hundred could go as

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Speaker 1: low as three thousand. It closed just about thirty seven

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Speaker 1: hundred yesterday. We got some personnel news out of Washington.

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Speaker 1: Karen Bloomberg News has learned Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans

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Speaker 1: to stay on after the November elections. Her desire to

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Speaker 1: stay comes as the Biden administration prepares for potential cabinet

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Speaker 1: and other senior personnel changes and incorporate news Nathan. Amazon

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Speaker 1: is boosting pay for hourly workers in the US. The

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Speaker 1: company said the move will raise the average starting wage

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Speaker 1: for most frontline employees and warehousing and transportation to nineteen

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Speaker 1: dollars an hour. Futures this morning, again, as we said,

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Speaker 1: are moving lower. S ANDP Future is down thirty four

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Speaker 1: points down, Futures down two hundred forty Nasdack Future is

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Speaker 1: falling down one two. That's down about one point one

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Speaker 1: per cent. The decks in Germany is down one point

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Speaker 1: two percent, the ten year Treasury down twenty thirty seconds,

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Speaker 1: Yell three point eight three percent, and the yield on

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Speaker 1: the two year four point one nine percent, and Nimex

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Speaker 1: screwed oil is down to tens per cent or fifteen

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00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: cents and eighty two dollars of barrel. Straight ahead, your

429
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this

430
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Thanks ting three on Wall Street, fifty four

431
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,959
Speaker 1: degrees in Central Park, heads up, New Jersey transit writers

432
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: twenty minute delays on the Northeast Corridor, saying more in

433
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 1: traffic shortly, First Michael Barr with what else is going

434
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: on in New York and around the world. Michael Nathan,

435
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: thank you very much. The New York City Council is

436
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: deciding whether the band solitary confinement in jails. Many buss

437
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: Ago of the Correction Officers Anevolent Association says the notion

438
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: that we're torturing individuals in our system is not the case. However,

439
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 1: Democratic City Council member Tiffany Common argued, we need to

440
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: know what is the root of the violence. The ban

441
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: is opposed by Mayor Eric Adams. It looks like the

442
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 1: Senate will pass a bill to fund the government through

443
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: mid December. Democratic Representative Jim mcgovernor of Massachusetts, was asked

444
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: about the odds of the measure passing by Friday. I

445
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 1: believe it will. I believe it will. I mean, I

446
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: think it will pass the Senate either today or tomorrow,

447
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: and then it will come right to the House, and

448
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: you know, and we're prop to bring it to the

449
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: floor immediately. And my hope is that after the election,

450
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: we can you know, I know, some of the differences

451
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: and get an omnibus budget pass so that we can

452
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: have fundy for the for all of next year and

453
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: we can we can move on. Representative McGovern spoke on

454
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: sound On, which airs weekdays at five pm on Bloomberg.

455
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: In a rare show of unity, both parties and the

456
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: Senate agreed to a temporary continuing spending bill that will

457
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 1: include disaster aid for whether battery can Tucky, Alabama, Texas, Alaska,

458
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 1: and Puerto Rico. Vice President Kamala Harris is capping a

459
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: trip to Asia with a stop at the Demilitarized Zone

460
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: dividing the Korean Peninsula. Harris thank us personnel at the

461
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 1: DMZ for their service. How grateful than what you do.

462
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: Before going to the d MZ, Harris met with South

463
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: Korean President yunsk Yole and praised the alliance between the countries.

464
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 1: One of hip hop's biggest names has died. Rapper Coulio

465
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: with heads including Gangs to Paradise, died at the Los

466
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 1: Angeles home of a friend. The cause was not immediately clear.

467
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Grammy winner Coolio was fifty nine Global News twenty four

468
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 1: hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered

469
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: by more than journalist and analysts more than a hundred

470
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: twenty countries. Michael Bard, this is Bloomberg, Nathan, thanks Michael

471
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: on Wall Streets and for the Bloomberg Sports update. He

472
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: finally did it. John Ston Shower and Athan in a

473
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: symmetry is kind of remarkable. Roger Marri's at sixty one

474
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: home runs in X one and now sixty one years later,

475
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: Aaron Judge has joined him Yankee number ninety nine with

476
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: Yankee number nine, only two in American League history with

477
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: that many home run That's one thing that's so special

478
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 1: about the Yankees organization is called the guys that came

479
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: before us and kind of paved the way, and you know,

480
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: played the game the right way, to do things the

481
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: right way, did a lot of great things in this game.

482
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 1: And getting a chance of me, you know, mentioned with

483
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: those guys now as I can't even describe it. It's

484
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: it's it's uh incredible honor, that's for sure. Judge, of course,

485
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: went seven games without a homer, but seventh inning in Toronto,

486
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: facing the Blue Jays, Tim masa a liner the left.

487
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: The ball dropped down into the Blue Jay's bullpen, fought

488
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: by Toronto coach Matt Bushman. Yankee reliever Zach Brittain went

489
00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: into the Jay's pen in Toronto's Jordan Romano handed written

490
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: the ball. Britain gave it the judge, who has seven

491
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: games left try and hit number sixty two. Starting tomorrow

492
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: the Baltimore at the Stadium, Yankees beat the Blue Jays

493
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 1: eight to three the Mets with a huge City field

494
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: victory comes courtesy of Eduardo Escobar over the last four innings.

495
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: Escobar had three hits and drove in all five met

496
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: rons as they came back from afore nothing deficit beat

497
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 1: Miami five four intendants, just as Atlanta lost intent at

498
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: Washington to the Met's back and sole possession of first

499
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: game ahead of the Braves, and now comes the three

500
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: game series starting tomorrow, weather permitting in Atlanta. One met

501
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: win in the series means they owned the type writer.

502
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: When the Jets place Sunday in Pittsburgh, Zac Wilson will

503
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: make his season debut at quarterback, returning from his knee

504
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: injuryym Stashward Bloomberg Sports Nathan thanks John seven on Wall

505
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: Street Time for the Tri State Business Report. Here's Bloomberg

506
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: zed Corey. Several states, including New Jersey, have projected a

507
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: slowdown in sales tax growth in the next fiscal year

508
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: due to shift in consumer spending patterns. States are likely

509
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: to see drops and income tax collections as stock market

510
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: volatility threatens to wipe out games and places like New

511
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: York and California, About two hundred union employees at the

512
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: Central New York distribution center for the food suppliers Cisco

513
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 1: walked off the job Tuesday night. The strike effects applies

514
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: to local restaurants as well as big institutions like schools, hospitals,

515
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: and nursing homes. Jet fuel premiums are skyrocketing in New

516
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: York and Houston as low inventories stoke concerns of a

517
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 1: supplying pinch. The premiums for barrels of New York Harbord

518
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: jet fuel has jumped nearly twentyfold since the start of

519
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: the week. On the Gulf Coast, the premium over futures

520
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,479
Speaker 1: nearly doubled to the highest and fourteen years. At your

521
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Dry State Business Report, I'm Ed Corey on Wall Street.

522
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio is on the air from San Francisco to

523
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: New York, London to Hong Kong. Let's check in with

524
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: our global news team for some of the top stories

525
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: heard on our three hundred affiliate radio stations around the world.

526
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: I'm Steve podascon w f L A, Tampa Bay. We're

527
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: talking about the billions of dollars lost to Florida's tourism

528
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: industry in the wake of Hurricane Ian. I'm Corney donahoan

529
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: ktr H in Houston. Boile is heading for its first

530
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: quarterly decline in more than two years. I'm Stephen Carol

531
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg d A B Digical Radio in London. We've

532
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: been reporting on Prime Minister list Trust saying her plan

533
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: is the right one for the UK despite the turmoil

534
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: and financial markets. I'm Ad Cory on w w J

535
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: in Detroit. I'm reporting Ship the same day delivery service

536
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: is launching an accelerator to support local redmailers in Detroit,

537
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: and those are some of the stories our twenty seven

538
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: hundred Bloomberg journalists and analysts are working on this morning

539
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: around the world. It's five nine on Wall Street. The

540
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: following is an editorial from Bloomberg Opinion. This editorial was

541
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: written by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. Treasury securities play a

542
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: crucial role in global finance, so it's troubling that the

543
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: treasury market has faltered several times over the past decade.

544
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: The market's challenges stem from a fundamental imbalance. As deficit

545
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: spending has driven up the US government's debt, the value

546
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: of publicly traded treasuries has ballooned, far outpacing the financial

547
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: resources of the large dealer banks that are supposed to

548
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: facilitate orderly trade in this market. As a result, the

549
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: dealers are occasionally unable or unwilling to handle the volume

550
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: of trades that investors want to make. Given the US

551
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: government debt isn't likely to shrink anytime soon, the best

552
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: solution is to get more institutions involved that would relieve

553
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: pressure on dealer's balance sheets. As of now, most people

554
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 1: have no reason to worry about the treasury market Let's

555
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: keep it that way. This editorial was written by the

556
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Editorial Board. For more Bloomberg opinion, please go to

557
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion or O P I n

558
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg Opinion.

559
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: Listen for Bloomberg opinion editorials every weekday. At this time,

560
00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: terminal customers can read more at OPI n go. SMP

561
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: futures are moving lower by thirty four points now TOAL

562
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: futures down two hundred forty three, NASDAC futures down a

563
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: hundred twenty five points. The tenure Treasury is down twenty

564
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: thirty seconds. Yield three British pound one point zero eight

565
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 1: five seven against the dollar. Sam Stove balls with us

566
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: next on this market, Chief investment strategist at c f

567
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: R A Bloomberg eleven three oh weather sunshine up for

568
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: sixties today, increasing high cloudiness tomorrow, upper sixties. Light rain

569
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: moves in from Ian's Saturday afternoon high Your sixty five

570
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: with rain on Sunday in the mid sixties fifty four.

571
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: Right now, markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours

572
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: a day at Bloomberg dot Com. The Bloomberg Business atand

573
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:53,479
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Quick takes a Bloomberg Business Flash, But I'm

574
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: Karen Moscow and it's Flash brought to you by SEI.

575
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: Built on advanced technologies and fifty years of innovation. SEI

576
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: off as non said managers, a comprehensive and flexible operations

577
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: outsourcing platform. Go to s C I C dot com

578
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: slash managers. Risk off sentiment returning to markets as concerned

579
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: about inflation and the risk of global recession over shadows

580
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: the Bank of England's move to restore calm, the pound

581
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: snapping a two day gain, and stocks in US stock

582
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: index futures are falling as Hong Kong's Hang Sing Tech

583
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: index touched its lowest since inception. You check the markets

584
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: over fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg, SMP

585
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: future is down about twenty six points now futures down

586
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: a hundred seventy eight and NASDAG futures down one hundred.

587
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: The decks in Germany's down nine tenths of upper sent

588
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: ten year treasury down twenty six thirty seconds. You know

589
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: three point three percent they yield on the two year

590
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: four point to zero percent. NIMEX screwed oil is up

591
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: about two tenths percent now of twelve cents at eighty

592
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: two dollars. Twenty seven cents of arrel Co makes goal

593
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: down seven tenths per cent, or twelve dollars fifty cents

594
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: at sixteen fifty seven sixty ounce. The euro point nine

595
00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: seven oh two against the dollar, British found one point

596
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: eight eight one and again one point six five. Bitcoin

597
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: is down four ten percent at nineteen thousand, five hundred dollars.

598
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: That's a bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with

599
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: Moore on what's going on around the world. Michael, Karen,

600
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Floridians are awaiting daylight to see

601
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: the extent of the damage still being caused by Hurricanean.

602
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: More than two million customers across Florida have lost electricity.

603
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: I is now a tropical storm. A new filing by

604
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: former President Trump's lawyers say that's it's not eleven thousand

605
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 1: documents or pages that were seized by the FBI at

606
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: the Mara Logo estate. They say it's more like two

607
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: hundred thousand. Because of that, his attorneys argue they need

608
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: more time to declare what documents they believe are covered

609
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: by attorney, client or executive privilege. In baseball, the Yankees

610
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: beat the Blue Jays eight three, but more importantly Aaron Judge,

611
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: it is sixty first home run tying Roger Merris for

612
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: the a L record. The Mets, Nationals and Giants won.

613
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: The Sucks meet the Orioles three one, The A's lost.

614
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 1: Global news twenty four hours a day on airrand on

615
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quickdake, powered by more than journalist and analysts more

616
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg

617
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 1: nather Nor Michael. Thanks, It's five forty nine on Wall

618
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is

619
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,479
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak, and Sam Stovall is with US now chief

620
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 1: investment Strategist at CFR. A. Sam, it's great to speak

621
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: with you, and it's been amazing to see some of

622
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: the day to day moves in the market. We got

623
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: a two percent jump in the SMP five hundred yesterday

624
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: after the Bank of England announced it was going to

625
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 1: go ahead and buy long dated bonds. Now we're back

626
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: in selling mode. I know it's uh probably risky to

627
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 1: focus on day to day. But what do you make

628
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 1: of these jumps and drops in the market each and

629
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 1: every day. Well, they're certainly surprising because even though September

630
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: does have a reputation of being volatile, of the trading

631
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: days in September typically see a one percent move either

632
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: up or down, but we've had two and a half

633
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 1: times that number this year. And if you think September

634
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,240
Speaker 1: is bad, just wait till October because that traditionally sees

635
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: thirty six more volatility than the average for the other

636
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: eleven months of the year. So what's driving the volatility

637
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,879
Speaker 1: right now? Obviously we've got a lot of turmoil going

638
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: on in the UK. Is that the focus right now

639
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: or is it more about the FED? Well, I think

640
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 1: it's a combination of items. But the real longer term

641
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: worry is whether the US and the globe will be

642
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: slipping into a recession, and if so, how deeply History

643
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: tells us that yes, will probably be in recession here

644
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: in the US because every time we've had cp I

645
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 1: rise above six and a half percent we were at

646
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: nine point one in June, we have had a bear

647
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: market with a recession. So the question is will it

648
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 1: end up being a mild one or a deep one.

649
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 1: So what's your calling that. Obviously we've reached a technical

650
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 1: recession with two trade quarters of declines in growth, But

651
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen with the economy. Well,

652
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: I think that it will end up at least being

653
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: a mild one. Our economists are projecting only as a

654
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: point one percent fourth quarter over fourth quarter gain in

655
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: GDP this year and then only eking out a one

656
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: point move in three but that number has been coming

657
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: down over the last several periods. So I would tend

658
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 1: to say that we fall into probably a mild recession,

659
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,959
Speaker 1: with the Fed keeping a very close eye on what's

660
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 1: going on and possibly responding the way the Bank of

661
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 1: England did recently. Interesting that you would think that perhaps

662
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: the Fed could make that kind of intervention. There's been

663
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: a lot of focus obviously, not just on interest rates,

664
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: but on the winding down of the balance sheets, some

665
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 1: quantitative tightening as well. Are you looking for the possibility

666
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: that the Fed could start to ease up on on

667
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: the dial back of the balance sheet. Well, I think

668
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 1: it's always a possibility. I mean, when you've already seen

669
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: a precedent occur overseas. Uh, if the financial markets do

670
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 1: get out of hand, then the FED does have to

671
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: step in. In fact, we're expecting the yield or the

672
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: FED funds rate to be peaking by the first quarter

673
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: of UH and then actually see the FED start to

674
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: come down in the second half of next year. So

675
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: while the FED probably won't be UH starting and stopping

676
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: and starting and stopping as it did in the nineteen seventies,

677
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: we do believe that a year from now the FED

678
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 1: will be have paused and will probably be working its

679
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: way toward easing rates to OH about between four and

680
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: a half and four and three quarter percent. In the meantime,

681
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 1: where do you see treasury yields going at this point, Well,

682
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 1: we have the tenure yield at four percent for the

683
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 1: end of this year, but then coming down on to

684
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 1: a three point nine percent by the end of next year.

685
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: Um Our feeling also is that the US stock market

686
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: is likely to continue to be under pressure. The typical

687
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:16,320
Speaker 1: bear market accompanied by recession tends to be deepfall more deeper,

688
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: and last longer than those without recession. Average decline is

689
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: about thirty over a fifteen month period, which would put

690
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 1: us to a Fibonacci level of about thirty two on

691
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 1: the smp UH and probably see the market bottom out

692
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: sometime in the late first quarter of next year. It's

693
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 1: got about thirty seconds left here, Sam, But we've seen

694
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 1: so much strength of the dollar, it's almost as though

695
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: investors think there's no alternative to the dollar at this point.

696
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: How much dollar strength do you think the FED will tolerate? Well, um,

697
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: we're looking at ten point nine UM Federal Reserve Board

698
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: Major Dollar Index increase in much of that has already

699
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: occurred obviously, but then continued strength into UM. So I

700
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: think again that's one of the factors that they said

701
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: will be looking at it. And if we find that

702
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: the dollar continues to sore and pretty much strangled demand

703
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 1: U whether it's for energy or other products around the globe,

704
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: emerging markets into challenging environments, then I think the Fed

705
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: probably will look to scale back. Thanks Sam, as always

706
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: good speaking with you. Sam Stovall of c f R

707
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 1: A Karen great, Nathan, thank you, And it is five

708
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: fifty four on Wall Street right now. It's time for

709
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 1: a legal story we're watching this morning. It brings us

710
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: to the biggest penalties ever against US banks for record

711
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 1: keeping lapses, more than two billion dollars. US regulators reached

712
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: settlements for a dozen banks in a sprawling investigation into

713
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: how global financial firms failed to monitor employees communications on

714
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: an authorized messaging apps. For more in the case Bloomberg's

715
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: doing grosso speeches, securities law attorney Robert him a partner

716
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: at Tarter, Krinsky and drow In, this is a stunning

717
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 1: amount of fines. What do these banks do that was illegal?

718
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 1: It really is. June it's a very big announcement from

719
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 1: the SEC and its centers around the bank's failure to

720
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 1: preserve electronic communications that their employees engaged in that related

721
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: to work. And under the federal securities laws of broker

722
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 1: dealers and other regulated entities have obligations to preserve all

723
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 1: business related to communications. And what the SEC found was that,

724
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 1: according to their settlement papers, there was widespread ignoring of

725
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: that rule by these sixteen firms that settled with the SEC.

726
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: The SEC categorized their conduct as pervasive, and not only

727
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:47,919
Speaker 1: that it wasn't just regular line employees that were using

728
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:52,919
Speaker 1: personal devices for business communications, but it was senior executives,

729
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: the very people that were responsible for implementing these policies

730
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:01,280
Speaker 1: were also ignoring them. In some cases, managers even texted

731
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 1: with employees in charge of ensuring that banks comply with

732
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: the law, So it could be that none of these

733
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: texts were over improper conduct. It was just record keeping.

734
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: According to the SEC settlement documents, it really was just

735
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: record keeping. In some instances. The SEC says that the

736
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: failure of the firms to preserve the employees business related

737
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 1: communications hampered their investigations, but they don't really say any

738
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 1: specifics about how it was hampered or whether any sort

739
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 1: of key evidence was lost as a result of the

740
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: firm's misconduct, and so it's hard to judge really whether

741
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 1: any critical evidence may have been lost. But it just

742
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 1: reinforces the SEC's position that proper record keeping as required

743
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: the law is something that they're going to take very seriously.

744
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: And really what this settlement focuses on is employees who

745
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 1: in this day and age, working remotely, and many firms

746
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: have bring your own device policies to work. Under the

747
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: securities law, sperms have an obligation to capture and save

748
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: any business related to communications, which you know, can be

749
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: very challenging in this environment because you have apps like

750
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: Snapchat that delete messages shortly after their scent. We have Telegram,

751
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: we have WhatsApp, and there's many, many different devices, and

752
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 1: they often are not very easy to sync with an

753
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: employer's main brain computer and standard compliance systems. And as

754
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: Robert time, a partner at Turner, Krinsky and Rogan speaking

755
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg sjun Grosso, it's more of that interview plus

756
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: analysis of the latest legal news by listening to the

757
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law Show at ten pm Eastern Time or subscribing

758
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Law Podcast, and attorneys can find exceptional

759
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: legal research and business development tools at Bloomberg Law dot com.

760
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: And this is Bloomberg