1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,479 Speaker 2: Here in Washington, we are of course monitoring all of 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: the developments from all different facets of the administration when 8 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: it comes to the ongoing war with Iran and the 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 2: messaging around it. We are expecting the White House Press 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 2: Secretary Caroline Lovett to speak with the media and answer 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: questions any minute now. That briefing was scheduled to begin 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 2: at one pm Eastern time, and will of course bring 13 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: you any headlines from it. But we also received a 14 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: briefing earlier today from the highest ranking members of the military, 15 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 2: the Joint chiefs of Staff, Chairman General Dan Kine joined 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: once again the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in briefing the 17 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 2: media and providing an update on this conflict, which, in 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: the words of Secretary Hegseth, is only just beginning. He 19 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: suggests that we are not anywhere near the end to 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 2: these military operations as he also pointed to the military's 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 2: accomplishments in his view in eradicating some of Iran's military capability, 22 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: including using a torpedo from a US submarine for the 23 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: first time since World War II to sink an Iranian 24 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. So clearly combat 25 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 2: operations are still going. The question is is there any 26 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 2: path forward still for potential diplomacy. The New York Times, 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 2: of course, reported this morning that Iranian operatives the day 28 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 2: after the US began these strikes did reach out for 29 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 2: potential talks. So Iran is now pushing back against this idea, 30 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 2: suggesting that that reporting was false and psychological warfare. So 31 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: if Iran is suggesting it's not interested to talk at 32 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: least in terms of what it's pushing out through the media, 33 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: and President Trump says the time to talk is over, 34 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 2: what hope is there of talking. That's something that David Gura, 35 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 2: my colleague here at Bloomberg and of course co host 36 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg this weekend, had the chance to speak with 37 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 2: the former US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkn about earlier today, 38 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 2: and David's joining me now for more on what they 39 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 2: talked about, So, David, what did Secretary Blinkin tell you. 40 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 3: You know, he's an optimist, of course, and somebody who 41 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 3: is a true believer in the utility of diplomacy. And 42 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 3: I asked him explicitly during that conversation, did he think 43 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 3: there's still room for diplomatic negotiations to talk, for these 44 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 3: two sides to get together, And he said, yes, there is. 45 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 3: We talked about what a potential off ramp might be 46 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 3: as well, and he said he's thinking about two things, 47 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 3: munitions and markets. Focusing on markets in particular, he does 48 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 3: think that what we've seen in the oil market, in 49 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: the stock market is something that could motivate the President 50 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 3: to think about this timetable more deeply and more and 51 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 3: more carefully. Munitions wise, he suggests that maybe the US 52 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 3: and Israel might think about how this is widened and 53 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: think about the constraints they might have in terms of 54 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: finding what the Iranians are doing here. Look, you talked 55 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 3: about the briefings that lawmakers have gotten here in recent days. 56 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: We've heard from the President, We've heard from the Chairman 57 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 3: of the Joint Chiefs, we've heard from the Secretary of State, 58 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 3: Secretary Defense, as Secretary blink in if from all of 59 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: that he has a clear understanding of what this administration's 60 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 3: objectives are, and this is what he had to say. 61 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 4: Well, look, the case keeps shifting, but the first thing 62 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 4: to say is this, from my perspective, once our men 63 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 4: and women in the Uniform are engaged in an operation 64 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 4: or in war, my first thought is for their safety 65 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 4: and for their success, irrespective of what I think about 66 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 4: how we got there or even where this is going. 67 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 4: So that's primarily what I'm thinking of. But having said that, 68 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 4: we've heard, you know, number shifting rationales. But I think 69 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 4: it's important to take into account that we've got to 70 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 4: be able to hold multiple truths in our head at 71 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 4: the same time. Is it a good thing that this 72 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 4: iatola is gone? Yes, terrible tyrant. Is it a good thing, 73 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 4: potentially at least, that Iron's nuclear program is I guess 74 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 4: rehobliterated because apparently it was obliterated last June, but maybe 75 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 4: not so much because they had to reobliterate it, or 76 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 4: it's missile program diminished, or it's navy sunk. 77 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 5: Yes, But to do that. 78 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 4: And to take on the extraordinary risks that go with 79 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: it without having made the case with the American people, 80 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 4: with citing imminent threats that apparently didn't exist. I think 81 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 4: that's problematic, and the chances of unintended consequences taking hold 82 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 4: in any situation like this are very real, very serious 83 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 4: for our partners and allies in the region and for ourselves, 84 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 4: and of course with the Iranian people. I think a 85 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 4: big question that everyone has is, Okay, have we done 86 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 4: regime change in Iran or just iatola change, which is 87 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 4: the way it looks right now. 88 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 3: You brought up the argument that there was an imminent 89 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 3: threat in years past, you'd warned the amount of weeks 90 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 3: before Ron could develop facile uranium. Is that an argument 91 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 3: that's persuasive to you so much as that's been made 92 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 3: by the ministration that there wasn't a threat. 93 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 4: It's an ironic an argument in a number of ways. First, 94 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 4: as I said, they claim to have obliterated the nuclear 95 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 4: fissile material program back in June, and now we're told, actually, no, 96 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 4: we didn't. And a number of us warned at the 97 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 4: time that one of the reasons why military action against 98 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: the nuclear program might not do the trick is that 99 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 4: the Iranians were likely to start to rebuild maybe rebuild 100 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 4: deeper underground where we couldn't get at it. Whether that 101 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 4: was happening or to what extent, I don't know, because 102 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 4: I'm not privy to that information, but at least that 103 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 4: seems to be part of the rationale. The deeper irony, 104 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 4: of course, is that we never should have been in 105 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 4: this position. Insofar as the agreement that President Obama reached, 106 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 4: the Iran Nuclear Deal, a so called JCPOA, put Iran's 107 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 4: nuclear program in a box. It made sure that Iran 108 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 4: could not produce the fisile material needed for a nuclear 109 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 4: weapon in less than a year. And so if they 110 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 4: chose to break out of the box and go for that, 111 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 4: we'd see it, and we'd have plenty of time to 112 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 4: be able to do something about it. President Trump tore 113 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 4: up that agreement, said he'd replace it with something better. 114 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 4: He never did, and that's the road that we then 115 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 4: wound up on that to in some ways to where 116 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 4: we are today with Iran, yes, dramatically advancing its production 117 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: of facile material so that that breakout time moved from 118 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 4: one year to a couple of weeks. But you don't 119 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 4: only need fysile material, you actually need a weapon too, 120 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 4: and I think, as has been publicly reported, our intelligence 121 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 4: agencies and others, the IEA continue to conclude that Iran 122 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 4: has not made a decision to actually weaponize if and 123 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 4: when they do, or if and when they did, most 124 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 4: estimates had that timeline a couple of years. There are 125 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 4: different kinds of weapons, less sophisticated ones you could build 126 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 4: on a quicker timeline, But the bottom line is that 127 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 4: on the nuclear side there was no imminent threat. 128 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 5: There was though the fact that, yes. 129 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 4: In terms of facile material production, they'd gone from the 130 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: Obama deal more than a year to a few weeks. 131 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 3: It was interesting. I asked the Secretary about how he 132 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 3: feels about the negotiation that took place during the Biden administration, 133 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 3: and Biden came into office and there was an effort 134 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 3: to reanimate the JCPOA to try to get Iranians agree 135 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 3: to it once again. Those talks fell apart in twenty 136 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 3: twenty two, and I asked the secretary does he now 137 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 3: think that perhaps they were trying to go for perfection 138 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 3: instead of something that was a little more reduced and 139 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 3: effect go for perfection as the enemy of the good. 140 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 3: He said he does have some regrets about that, but fundamentally, 141 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 3: he still pins this on the fact that the Trump 142 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 3: administration Kaylee pulled out of that deal back in the 143 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 3: first term, and this is the legacy of the decision 144 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 3: to do that. 145 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 6: Well. 146 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 2: And I wonder David if he had any thoughts for 147 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: you on the composition of the Trump administration and what 148 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: they're doing here, both his successor the now Secretary of 149 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: State Marco Rubio, but also those who were charged with 150 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 2: the diplomatic efforts here who are not career diplomats, like 151 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 2: Anthony B. Lincoln, Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner with a 152 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 2: rue leading these talks as the president's envoys. 153 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 5: Did he share with you thoughts on that. 154 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, he didn't want to criticize them directly, and he 155 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 3: said it was probably missing the most here and again 156 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 3: he said he didn't know the full details of this 157 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 3: was having the full apparatus of the State of Harartment 158 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: in those negotiations, in other words, having the technical experts 159 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 3: who could come to the table. When Steve Woodcoff was 160 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 3: there with Jared Kushner sitting across from Iranian diplomats, and 161 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 3: he made what I think is a very salient point here, 162 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 3: that is Iran has a corps of very highly trained 163 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 3: and experienced diplomats who've been at this for many years. 164 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 3: Remember Rodger Sei, for instance, who handled the deal during 165 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 3: the first the first of during the Aboma administration. These 166 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 3: are folks who know what they're doing, Our experienced professional diplomats. 167 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 3: Of course, Steve Woodcoff and Jared Kushner are not, so 168 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: he didn't criticize them per se. He said that he 169 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 3: assumed that they were operating in good faith, as he 170 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 3: assumed the Iranians were operating in good faith here, but 171 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 3: did note the fact that there was an inherent imbalance 172 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 3: in the fact that there were trained diplomats on one 173 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: side and there are those who have not done this 174 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 3: by practice or professional practice over the course of their careers. 175 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,719 Speaker 2: And David, finally, when we consider the conversations you were 176 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: having on Bloomberg this weekend, this past weekend, and the 177 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 2: ones that you may still have yet to have on 178 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 2: Bloomberg this weekend this coming weekend, knowing that all signs 179 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 2: from this administration are we will still be active war 180 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 2: with iron, These combat operations will continue in the absence 181 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 2: of diplomacy. When we consider that the timeline here and 182 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: the military aspect of this. 183 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 5: Did Antony B. 184 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 2: Lincoln share with you any concerns about the idea that 185 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 2: we could get drawn into a quote unquote forever war, 186 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: as President Trump talks about, we have the munition munitions 187 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 2: to carry this on forever if we so. 188 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,439 Speaker 3: Choose, you know, I asked him if he fears that 189 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 3: there is a point at which you're going to need 190 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 3: to put us boots on the ground. He said, that's 191 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 3: not a necessary thing. There's no sense that that has 192 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 3: to happen here. But like a lot of folks I 193 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 3: talked to on the show in the day since, he 194 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: has been apprehensive about how this is widening and how 195 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 3: that's likely to attenuate the timetable here. It's certainly something 196 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 3: that he's very concerned about. And we talked a bit 197 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 3: about parallels to what's happening, and he brought up Syria. 198 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 3: He brought up Libya as well, countries that were kind 199 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 3: of royal by civil war when their leaders were taken out. 200 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 3: So those are very sobering examples of what's to come here. 201 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 3: And I'll just say one thing lastly, and folks can 202 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 3: listen to the full interview on the Big Take Podcas 203 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: asked this afternoon. Something that he mentioned a number of 204 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 3: times back when he was Secretary of State is that 205 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 3: if this were to happen, if there were to be 206 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 3: some leadership shift in Ron, the regime could take the 207 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 3: uranium processed and spread it across the country, effect hiding it. 208 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: At a moment where there is so much chaos and 209 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 3: uncertainty about what's going to become of this country, knowing 210 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 3: that that much nuclear material is again scattered about the 211 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 3: country is something that should be deeply worrying. Any Thanks 212 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:25,599 Speaker 3: to those who are watching all of this unfold. 213 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's David Gura, co host of Bloomberg This weekend, 214 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: Thank you so much an important conversation with the former 215 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 2: Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln. You can, of course hear 216 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 2: more of that in full on the Big Take podcast. 217 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 2: But I want to turn back now here on balance 218 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: of power to our political panel as we consider the 219 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: political implications of this ongoing conflict with Iran and what 220 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 2: role if any Congress is going to end up playing 221 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: with war powers. Votes set to take place over the 222 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 2: coming days in the Senate this afternoon, though it is 223 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: expected to fail. Jeanie Shanzano is with me democracy visiting 224 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: fellow at the Harvard n A School's Ash Center and 225 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics distributor or a Democratic analyst, and more a 226 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: Gillespie Bluestak Strategies founder and Republican strategists Genie to begin 227 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 2: with you on this war powers vote, which of course 228 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 2: is being pushed by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. All signs 229 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:17,079 Speaker 2: are that there will be no Republican support for this realistically, 230 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 2: or at least not adequate support to get this over 231 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 2: the threshold it needs to actually pass the Senate. How 232 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 2: significant as a signal as a symbol though, could this 233 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 2: vote still be if it clearly shows that it's still 234 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 2: just Democrats on one side and Republicans in large part 235 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 2: on the other. 236 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 5: What's the point? 237 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 7: It is important, it is significant, and all of these 238 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 7: senators need to look back at how the votes on 239 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 7: the Iraq War, for instance, that we all remember came 240 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 7: back and really had an impact on their careers going forward. 241 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 7: You have to think very, very serious, seriously about this. 242 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 7: And I was struck yesterday after the briefing that they 243 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 7: got to hear people like Senator Richard Blumenthal from Connecticut 244 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 7: say we may be putting brute boots on the ground. 245 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 7: He described himself as more fearful than ever. And also 246 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 7: Senator Warren came out and said, you know, if you 247 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 7: had listened to what I listened to, essentially, you are 248 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 7: right to be worried. They don't have a plan and 249 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 7: they don't have an end strategy. And so I think 250 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 7: as senators here from the administration, this is an important 251 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 7: vote for them to be put on record because their 252 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 7: constituents as we enter the midterms, have a right to 253 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 7: know where they stand on what is perhaps the most 254 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 7: significant foreign policy decision by this president, certainly, but by 255 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 7: any president in the twenty first century. 256 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: Well, so, Laura, do you bring or do you see 257 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: a point at which a line is crossed even for 258 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 2: Republicans who buy in large want to stand with the 259 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 2: president on his decisions. If we do see ground troops 260 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 2: going in, do you think that could be something of 261 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 2: a tone shift in terms of what we're hearing from 262 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 2: Capitol Hill on whether or not congressional authorization is needed. 263 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 6: For members to stay in line with the president between 264 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 6: calling it war and then not calling it war and 265 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 6: not wanting to call it war. I think that from 266 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 6: the start of this really the White House has not 267 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 6: given a good messaging tactic for Republicans to reiterate because 268 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 6: they themselves don't seem to know what's going on. I 269 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 6: think the lack of severity of the situation and not 270 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 6: being serious with not only the why, but what the 271 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 6: goal is and being clear eyed about that and consistent 272 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 6: has been a downfall for the administration and will be 273 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 6: a downfall for where members of Congress who are looking 274 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 6: to decide, you know, where do they stake their legacy. 275 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 6: Do they stay it with the Trump administration and kind 276 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 6: of hope that it all pans out, or do they 277 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 6: decide what is best for not only the future of 278 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 6: the country but this act right and the powers that 279 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 6: you're giving to the president long term, not just right 280 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 6: now now, but for generations to come. And I do 281 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 6: think that that's something that members should be thinking through. 282 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,199 Speaker 6: But to stay with the president just for the sake 283 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 6: of it, I don't know if that's a great long 284 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 6: term strategy. 285 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 2: Well, there's also the question as to whether or not 286 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 2: the president is going to ask Congress not for permission 287 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 2: to continue military operations but instead for more money to 288 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 2: carry them out. This is something we got into last 289 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 2: night on balance of power with Republican Senator Mike Grounds. 290 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 8: We do know that we've still got munitions available to us, 291 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 8: but anytime you expend the munitions, you want to make 292 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 8: sure that you're in a position to replace those munitions 293 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 8: as quickly as possible. And so if in the middle 294 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 8: of this process over the next several weeks, they decide 295 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 8: that they're going to ask for a supplemental, I almost 296 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 8: certainly would consider it, or as a part of the 297 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 8: appropriations process. I think the presidents indicated he'd like to 298 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 8: go up about five hundred billion dollars in additional expenditures 299 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 8: for the next coming year. 300 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 2: He also suggested to us that even budget conciliation could 301 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 2: be an option if this needed to be done on 302 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 2: partisan lines. Genie, but could you see a scenario in 303 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 2: which there actually could be Democratic support for this if 304 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 2: it is money that is need to replenish our stockpiles 305 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 2: in order to provide for security, or even money that's 306 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: needed to get Americans still stranded in the Middle East out. 307 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 7: You know, I think obviously there would be support to 308 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 7: get Americans stranded out, but I would be stunned if 309 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 7: Democrats and quite frankly Republicans were willing to appropriate more 310 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 7: money for this without any clarity on why we are there, 311 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 7: what is the end game, and for how long? That 312 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 7: would be stunning to me. At a time when Americans 313 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 7: are suffering higher oil prices, higher gas prices, higher grocery prices. 314 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 7: The list goes on and on. They elect a president 315 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 7: who says he's going to focus on making their lives 316 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 7: more affordable, and yet we are now in a war, 317 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 7: and we are now in a war that is costing, 318 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 7: by some estimates upwards of seven hundred eighty million dollars 319 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 7: a day, and that's probably on the low side. That 320 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 7: we would be appropriating even more money to that would 321 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 7: be stunning to me in this environment, and at the 322 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 7: very least, the administration owes it to the Congress and 323 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 7: the American people to be very clear on what the 324 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 7: point is. 325 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 2: All right, Genie Shanzano and morg Gillespie our political panel today, 326 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. 327 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. 328 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 9: We'll have much more coming up after this. 329 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 330 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 331 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 332 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 333 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 334 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 2: Right now in the White House Press briefing, where the 335 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 2: Press Secretary Caroline Levitt is speaking to reporters, saying, at 336 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: this time, ground troops are not part of the plan 337 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: for operations in Iran, But of course the question is 338 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: could they become part of the plan. As all administration officials, 339 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,679 Speaker 2: including the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, are suggesting that this 340 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: conflict is not yet near being over. 341 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 9: As President Trump said, more and larger waves are coming. 342 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 9: We are just getting started. We are accelerating, not decelerating. 343 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 9: Iran's capabilities are evaporating by the hour, while American strength 344 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 9: grows fiercer, smarter, and utterly dominant. Four days in, we 345 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:33,880 Speaker 9: have only just begun to fight. America fights to win, 346 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 9: and in Operation Epic Fury, we. 347 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 2: Are and joining us now with his insight is someone 348 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 2: familiar with Americans fighting capability and fighting in this region. 349 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 2: In particular, former US Sentcom Commander General Frank Mackenzie is 350 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 2: with us now here in Bloomberg TV and Radio. He's 351 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: now executive director of the University of South Florida's Global 352 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: and National Security Institute. General, thank you so much for 353 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 2: being with us. You have recently pend and op ed 354 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 2: in The New York Times that ran on Sunday entitled. 355 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 5: Iran got Trump all wrong. 356 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 2: In it, you write on the so called escalation ladder, 357 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 2: the concept war planners have used for decades to evaluate 358 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: how conflict might evolve. Iran still has options, but they 359 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 2: are at the low end, at the high end of 360 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: the escalation ladder. All of the options are our so general, 361 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 2: now that we're five days into this conflict, what options 362 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 2: do you see us having that we have not yet 363 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 2: chosen to act on? 364 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 10: Well, Kaylee, first of all, good to be with you 365 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 10: here this afternoon. We're an execution of a plan that's 366 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 10: been refined for many years by the United States Central Command, 367 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 10: and what we're seeing right now is the complete establishment 368 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 10: of air dominance over all of Iran, which will then 369 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 10: allow us to strike Iranian ballistic missiles, drones and cruise 370 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 10: missiles with a lot more efficiency and effectiveness. You've got 371 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 10: to take out their air defense in order to do that. 372 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 10: That's largely been done, probably a little bit left, but 373 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 10: we're working on that now it will allow us to 374 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 10: use non smart weapons, weapons that don't require a big 375 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 10: standoff range to drop against these targets. The plan I 376 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 10: think is unfolding about as well as any Sentcom commander 377 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 10: would like to see. Now. There will be some surprises, undoubtedly, 378 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 10: because war is the province of chance. But I believe 379 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 10: we're own plan as we move forward. 380 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider the movement forward, can we 381 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 2: continue to do so to strike this money targets, to 382 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: do it at this cadence indefinitely as right now the 383 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 2: Pentagon and the President are suggested, I. 384 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 10: Think we can continue to do it until Iran recognizes 385 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 10: that it's in their best interests to come to the table. 386 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 10: And when we sit down to that table, it should 387 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 10: not be as equals, it should be as victor and vanquished. 388 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 2: Well, and when we get to that point, general, even 389 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 2: if the US accomplishes the entirety of what it said 390 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 2: its objectives are with this operation in Iran, if it 391 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 2: is longer a threat from a ballistic missile standpoint or 392 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,239 Speaker 2: from a nuclear standpoint, clearly we will have expended a 393 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 2: great deal of resources to do so, including from a 394 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 2: munition standpoint, and we can't just snap our fingers and 395 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 2: get those assets back and reloaded and replenished. General, are 396 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: you concerned about us being in a weaker strategic position, 397 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 2: if not in the Middle East specifically as it comes 398 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 2: to Iran, when we consider the theaters elsewhere around the world, 399 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 2: that we need to have those things in store for. 400 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 10: So the Joint Staff and the Secretary Ballance, the Global 401 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 10: Magazine for the United States, this is not a new 402 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 10: This is not a new problem. We've known for a 403 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 10: couple of years now that our arsenal needs to be bigger, 404 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 10: it needs to be deeper because of decisions that were 405 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 10: made across successive administrations going back to the early nineteen nineties. 406 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 10: We do need to re establish parts of the defense 407 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 10: industrial base, and I believe that Apartment of War is 408 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 10: acting to do that right now. 409 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 2: And speaking of right now, we are getting headlines out 410 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,360 Speaker 2: from the White House Press secretaries briefing care I love 411 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 2: it with the press who has just said that Trump 412 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 2: has spoken with Kurdish leaders about a base in Iraq. 413 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 2: He has not agreed on a plan to arm Kurdish forces, 414 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 2: as there has been reporting about in the last few days. 415 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 2: In general, given your former purchase commander at Senkom. I 416 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 2: wonder if you have an opinion as to whether arming 417 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 2: Kurdish forces is a good idea what that could mean 418 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,640 Speaker 2: if he were to make that decision. 419 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 10: I think we should seek a variety of ways to 420 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 10: put pressure on the Iranian regime. Certainly arming forces on 421 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,640 Speaker 10: the ground is one of those ways that we could 422 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 10: do it, and I would hope that we're exploring all 423 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 10: of those ways to put additional pressure on him. So 424 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 10: I think it's certainly worth taking a good hard look 425 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 10: at well. 426 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 2: And this brings me to the other idea that this 427 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: isn't necessarily just going to be strictly US and Israeli 428 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 2: military against Iran and the IRGC, that Iran also has 429 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 2: this vast proxy network to consider here as well, and 430 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 2: we know Israel and Hesbela have been exchanging fire in Lebanon. 431 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: How concerned are you buy the proxy at inspect here 432 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: in the perhaps unpredictable nature of that component of this. 433 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 10: Always concerned about Iran's processing network, their global terror network, 434 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 10: which is perhaps a better and more direct way to 435 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,719 Speaker 10: describe it, is certainly a weapon they have. They're probably 436 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 10: trying to energize it now. Of course, Lebanese has bollowed 437 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 10: one of their premier proxy terror networks. It has been 438 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 10: largely eviscerated by Israel over the past year or so, 439 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 10: and I think Israel's now redoubling their attacks on them. 440 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 10: We should worry about the potential of attacks in this 441 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 10: country by Iran. Although they have a bad track record 442 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 10: of success in doing it, we know it remains an 443 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 10: aspiration for them to carry out those attacks. This is 444 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 10: not an easy country for them to operate in, and 445 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 10: I know we're taking all the measures we need to 446 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 10: in order to be prepared for that. I worry more, 447 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 10: frankly about attacks in the region. I guess our friends 448 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 10: and partners in the region A RAN's already attacked them 449 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 10: directly with balistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles, so I'm 450 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 10: certain they're going to use other methods to attack those 451 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 10: countries as well. Although I would note that Iran's decision 452 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 10: to engage countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Baharayan and 453 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 10: cutter by attacking them directly, I believe ultimately is going 454 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 10: to be proved to be a profound strategic mistake for Iran. 455 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 8: Well. 456 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 2: When we consider the proxy network, we of course have 457 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 2: seen one of their proxies. The houthis already in just 458 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 2: recent years, having a very disruptive effect when it comes 459 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,199 Speaker 2: to global shipping. In the Red Sea, specifically in the 460 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 2: US military was struggling to a large degree in order 461 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 2: to make sure that waterway was secure and to kind 462 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 2: of combat the who They's efforts. Now we're having a 463 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 2: very similar conversation about the Strait of Horror moves the President. 464 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 2: As I'm sure you well, no general has suggested the 465 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 2: US will provide insurance, even naval escorts if necessary, in 466 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 2: order to guarantee the safe passage of tankers and vessels 467 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 2: through the strait. How difficult from an operations standpoint is 468 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 2: that going to be for the United States Navy? And 469 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: how many resources could we actually expend just on that effort, 470 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: separate to the actual operations in a run itself? 471 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 10: Sure, sir, I'm glad to see that US Central Command 472 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 10: under Admiral Brad Cooper have already undertaken some pretty significant 473 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 10: steps to reduce Iranian naval capability. I don't know the 474 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 10: count right now, but it is certainly over twenty ships 475 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 10: sunk at the same time we're striking. I am certain 476 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 10: where Iran stores its minds, the minds that they can 477 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 10: deploy into the austral of Removes to make it difficult 478 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 10: for ships to go through. So we're probably working very 479 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 10: hard right now to reduce those stocks and make it 480 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 10: hard for Iran to actually implement that part of their plan. 481 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 10: The other part of their plan will be their vast 482 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 10: armada of small craft that can get out into the Gulf, 483 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 10: into the austral of Removes and interfere with shipping. We're 484 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 10: going after them right now. What you'd like to do 485 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 10: is prevent this from becoming a problem. Don't let these 486 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 10: forces operate. Don't let them drop mines, because it's always 487 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 10: harder to sweep the minds than it is to destroy 488 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 10: the minds while they're still in their storage areas. We're 489 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 10: very much aware of this problem. The US Navy is 490 00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 10: very much aware of this problem. The Navy has trained 491 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 10: for years to reop when these channels should have become 492 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 10: necessary to do so. And I know the sitcoms giving 493 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 10: a great deal of attention right now. 494 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 2: Well, we so appreciate your expertise on this live situation. 495 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 2: And finally, General, before we let you go, I do 496 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 2: wonder your take on what happens when this is no 497 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 2: longer an active situation, when we've reached the endgame, whatever 498 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 2: that may be. This is something I got into you 499 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,959 Speaker 2: last night on Balance of Power with Israel's ambassador to 500 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 2: the UN, Danny Danone. 501 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 5: This is what he told me. 502 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 11: First, we all focused on degrading the capabilities, making sure 503 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 11: there's no threat to well, to the region, to the world, 504 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 11: and in the long rue, you know, we believe that 505 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 11: there will be a new leadership that will be the 506 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,360 Speaker 11: responsibility for the Iranian people to choose, but we will 507 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 11: create the conditions for them to actually take control of 508 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,640 Speaker 11: their future. Once we will create those conditions, the Iranian 509 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 11: people will have to step up and actually choose the 510 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 11: own leadership. 511 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 2: General could creating those conditions actually requies wire that this 512 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 2: not just be an aerial campaign, but that the US 513 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 2: might need to put boots on the ground in Iran. 514 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 10: Well, I wouldn't claim to know that. I would think 515 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 10: it would be wise for us not to leave any 516 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 10: option off the table, and I think that's pretty much 517 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,160 Speaker 10: our stated position. I do agree that what we would 518 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 10: like is a different form of government and Iran That 519 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 10: may be hard to get to, but that's where you 520 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 10: want to go. Our track record of predicting the fall 521 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 10: of regimes like this have been has been poor. No 522 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 10: one saw the fall of Bosh Rossad and Syria coming 523 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 10: until two or three days before it actually happened. And 524 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 10: while and while this regime has ensconced itself pretty heavily 525 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 10: by killing all the potential people who could come to lead, 526 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 10: I still think there's all yeah, all. 527 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 2: Right, General, thank you so much for joining us, and 528 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 2: please stay in touch with us as this conflict continues 529 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 2: to unfold. General Frank McKenzie, the former commander of US 530 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 2: Central Command, here with us on balance of power. 531 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of power. 532 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 9: We'll have much more coming up after this. 533 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas 534 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 535 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 536 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 537 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 538 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 2: I'm Kailey Lines here in Washington, where conversation over the 539 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 2: last five days, no surprise has been dominated by the 540 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 2: fact that we are in active combat operations, still in 541 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 2: the Middle East, the US and Israel in war against Iran, 542 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 2: which is why this is not our top story today 543 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,439 Speaker 2: here on balance of power. In any other context it 544 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 2: likely would be. We had primaries yesterday in North Carolina 545 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 2: and Arkansas, which weren't too exciting, but most crucially in 546 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 2: the state of Texas, where a Senate seat is in 547 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 2: play in this midterm election cycle, and the primary results 548 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 2: in that Senate race on both the Democratic and Republican 549 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 2: side were interesting. On the Democratic side, you have Texas 550 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 2: State Representative James Tallerico, who was relatively unknown until just 551 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 2: months ago, a devout Christian, a young rising star at 552 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 2: least as he's seen in the Democratic Party, who says 553 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 2: he can appeal to moderates in the general election. He 554 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 2: beat out Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, victory 555 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 2: that was perhaps marred slightly by confusion over Democratic polling 556 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 2: sites in Dallas County, something that Crockett was very quick 557 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 2: to call attention to you, even as Tallarico celebrated. 558 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 5: We were able to keep the polls open. But I 559 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 5: can tell you now that people have been disenfranchised tonight. 560 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 12: Our kid gain is shocking the nation. We are still 561 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 12: waiting for an official call, but we are confident in 562 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 12: this movement we've built together. Every every vote must be counted, 563 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 12: every voice must be heard. 564 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 2: Of course, the official call has come and Crockett has conceded, 565 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 2: So it will be James Talerico in the general election 566 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 2: in November. Who will be up again, though still an 567 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 2: open question because on the Republican side we are heading 568 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 2: to a May runoff. It was a three way race 569 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 2: between the incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 570 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 2: and Congressman Wesley Hunt, and none of them could garner 571 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 2: the fifty percent needed to cross the threshold to avoid 572 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 2: a runoff. So we're going to see much more money 573 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 2: spent in this race, where already tens of millions of 574 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 2: dollars have been spent by Senate Republicans and affiliated groups 575 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 2: in order to try to protect John Cornyn because he 576 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 2: is seen, at least by establishment Republicans here in Washington 577 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 2: as the person who would most easily defeat James Tallerico. 578 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 2: So let's get into this now with our political panel. 579 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano is with me Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard 580 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. And of course Bloomberg Politics contributor 581 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 2: alongside Marrig Gillespie, who's a Republican strategist and founder at 582 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 2: Bluestack Strategies. Welcome to you both, Jeanie. I want to 583 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 2: start with you first and with the Democrats first, because 584 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 2: that was the conclusive result. 585 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 5: From last night. 586 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 2: What should we glean from Tallarico's victory over Congressoman Crockett. 587 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, and this is a guy, Kayley, and 588 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 7: I think you described it perfectly. Many people on the 589 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 7: Democratic side seeing him as a potential rising star. You 590 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 7: hear people banding about names like similar to or reminiscent 591 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 7: of Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, with enormous oratorical skills, really 592 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 7: really good. He's been on your show on Balance of Power, 593 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 7: really good on the medium with social media. Young and 594 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:38,479 Speaker 7: he was I think eighteen points behind not that long ago, 595 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 7: and he rose up to win, and he won in 596 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 7: a pretty substantial way. I think the last numbers I 597 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 7: looked at, he's about seven points ahead. So Democrats have 598 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 7: really gotten what they want here Texas Democrats. It's been 599 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 7: like since nineteen ninety four. Some of my students weren't 600 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 7: even alive last time Democrats won a state i'd see 601 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 7: in Texas, but with somebody like Talarico, I think many 602 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,479 Speaker 7: Democrats feel like they are halfway there to getting the 603 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,479 Speaker 7: perfect setup to potentially capturing this state. You know, it 604 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 7: all depends on what happens on Mora's side of the aisle, 605 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 7: on the Republicans, because their dream is, of course to. 606 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 5: Run against Ken Paxton. 607 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 7: And I think Corny in with is you know one 608 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,400 Speaker 7: two percent, you know, win there or at least capturing 609 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 7: more votes and getting to this runoff really took some 610 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 7: people by surprise. 611 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 2: Well, so I wonder Mora how you're viewing this and 612 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 2: if you are surprised, because we were being told yesterday 613 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 2: and in the lead up to this primary that Republicans 614 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 2: were concerned about Tallarico winning, especially if there is a 615 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 2: chance that he is going to go up against Ken 616 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 2: Paxton come November, which we obviously don't know yet. But 617 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 2: how nervous are you feeling about this this this afternoon? 618 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 6: I think that Tallarico versus Paxton is a really good 619 00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 6: sign for Democrats. But you know, the amount of money 620 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 6: that's being spend on this primary alone, when you're coupling 621 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 6: that with the messaging that Republicans and Democrats alike have 622 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 6: been focused on. When it comes to affordability, I think 623 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 6: it really does fall flat and it flies in the 624 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 6: face of what everyday Americans are facing. And you're just 625 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 6: talking about tens of million dollars on a primary alone 626 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 6: now going to a runoff, and that's even before the 627 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 6: general election takes place. So I think that that's a 628 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:24,719 Speaker 6: conversation that needs to be had internally as you run campaigns. 629 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 6: You know, it does sort of become this question of 630 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 6: how much money are we spending in this country on 631 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 6: elections alone, and not even just elections on campaigns. It's 632 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 6: one thing to spend money on elections, but it's a 633 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 6: whole other thing on these campaigns themselves. 634 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 5: They drag out, they cost a lot. 635 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 6: Of money, and for a messaging tactic, I just think 636 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 6: it kind of is poorly done for most sides, but 637 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 6: right now for Republicans, and when it comes to Cornyan, yes, 638 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 6: the NRSC, the Republican campaign for Senates campaigns are going 639 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 6: to be putting a lot of money behind corn because 640 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 6: they do see him as Again, think about it, last year, 641 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 6: a few years ago, he was considered a potential instead 642 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 6: of having, you know, John Thune as head at majority leader. 643 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 6: Cornyn was in the running and now he's contending for 644 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 6: a primary. So it just really does show you where 645 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 6: he stands in the GOP as far as you said establishment, 646 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 6: but for the future of the party beyond Donald Trump, 647 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 6: it does matter. 648 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredible that he was one of the Johns 649 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 2: we were talking about would be the next after Mitch McConnell. 650 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 5: It was going to be John Thune, maybe. 651 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 2: John Barrosso or John Cornyn, and now he is a 652 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 2: John very much in danger. Mora just quickly on the 653 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 2: idea that yes, they're going to have to spend more 654 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,520 Speaker 2: money between now and this runoff in May. But talk 655 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 2: to us about like runoff election dynamics. Who is likely 656 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 2: to show up for a runoff vote? Because we already 657 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 2: know primary voters are more politically engaged than the average 658 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 2: member of the American electorate perhaps in general elections. 659 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,959 Speaker 5: What about the runoff voter? Who would that favor? 660 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 6: So you would think that it would favor Ken Paxton 661 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 6: because it tends to learn more conservative, I mean, but 662 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 6: it also tends to lean to people who are more motive. 663 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 6: I do think what Cornon's team needs to do, and 664 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 6: they already have that ad out which is pretty blistering, 665 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 6: but point out the contradictions. Ken Paxton says, he's his 666 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 6: family man, he's a devout Christian, all these things, and 667 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 6: then he cheated on his wife and that's the ad 668 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,360 Speaker 6: that Cordon's team is running. And then he got his 669 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,239 Speaker 6: daughter to do an ad saying that he's a great 670 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 6: family man. So I think that you know, at a 671 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,919 Speaker 6: certain point, voters are going to be tired of being 672 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,279 Speaker 6: lied to and feeling that there's a walking contradiction that's 673 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 6: trying to tell them that he's, you know, running on 674 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 6: these principles that does he have them? Does he have 675 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,839 Speaker 6: the values that they have? Does he share them? And 676 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 6: Cornan can speak to that, and I think he will. 677 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 6: But you are seeing, you know, this divide there and 678 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,960 Speaker 6: it's going to get ugly because of these things that 679 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:39,960 Speaker 6: are going to pop up and you're going to see 680 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 6: Ken Paxton sling it drawn Corny in about not being 681 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 6: true maga. 682 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 5: But does that really hold? 683 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 6: And I think as we get closer to the midterms, 684 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,479 Speaker 6: I mean, as we kind of get through these these 685 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 6: fracture points that the Trump administration is already having because 686 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 6: what they're standing for is not what they've ran on, 687 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 6: And there's a lot of conflicts within the cabinet and 688 00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,840 Speaker 6: a lot of egregious spending and things that are going 689 00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 6: on in Hump World that don't reflect the struggles of 690 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,200 Speaker 6: everyday Americans and the people who elected him to be 691 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 6: president in the first place. So I think that if 692 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 6: Corn's team can draw that distinction, they'll fare better by 693 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 6: reaching their actual voters and speaking to the people who 694 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 6: they're looking to elect them, not to Chump World. 695 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,880 Speaker 2: Well, So, Genie, I want to get back to the 696 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 2: money dynamics here, because Asmara was pointing to the Republicans 697 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 2: are going to have to spend a lot even before 698 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,319 Speaker 2: we get to the general election, but Democrats are going 699 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 2: to have to spend a lot on the general election. Right, 700 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,879 Speaker 2: this is going to be another election cycle in which 701 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 2: we see in the hopes of turning Texas blue, which 702 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 2: they have hoped for decades and not succeeded, and they 703 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,360 Speaker 2: are going to have to deploy a lot of capital. 704 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:47,239 Speaker 2: Does this risk being kind of a financial sunk hole, 705 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 2: if you will, for Democrats once again, when there are 706 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 2: other states in play in these mid terms as well 707 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,879 Speaker 2: that they need to think about deploying resources too. 708 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 5: Yeah. 709 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,880 Speaker 7: Absolutely, And I think so much of it depends on 710 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:00,920 Speaker 7: the outcome of this runoff. 711 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 5: And you know, I you know, you think about. 712 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 7: The seventy million Cornyn spent for to get to a runoff, 713 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 7: and then by one estimation I heard Kayley, one hundred 714 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 7: million could be spent in the next twelve weeks. That 715 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,480 Speaker 7: is astonishing. Democrats want to try to take advantage of 716 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 7: that if Donald Trump stays on the sidelines and get 717 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 7: Talarico out there for precisely the reason that you're talking about, 718 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 7: so they have a leg up once this general election 719 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,880 Speaker 7: is set, and they're hoping again that it's Paxton. But 720 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,839 Speaker 7: you know, I was listening to John Thune today say 721 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 7: that he is once again going to try to get 722 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 7: Donald Trump to endorse for the money reason and also 723 00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 7: because he wants to avoid what he said was a 724 00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 7: spirit would be a spirited campaign, which is probably another 725 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,800 Speaker 7: word for a really ugly, nasty campaign, which Cornyn yesterday 726 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 7: said was going to be coming. And he had a 727 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,560 Speaker 7: lot more APO research to drop on Paxton. So that's 728 00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 7: what Democrats are bank that they can get a leg up, unless, 729 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 7: of course, Donald Trump decides to endorse and I think 730 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 7: that is the big thing to watch. And to your point, 731 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 7: this cycle has always been tougher Democrats in the Senate. 732 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:15,200 Speaker 5: I don't think in. 733 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 7: Their wildest imagination they thought that Texas was going to 734 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 7: be doable. It's still a long road dhoe there. But 735 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 7: the fact that last night they got Talarico and may 736 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,800 Speaker 7: get a Paxton against him really is a bright spot 737 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,800 Speaker 7: for them. And I think you're going to see tons 738 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 7: of money pour into this race to try to get 739 00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,840 Speaker 7: them over this historic hump in Texas. 740 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 2: Well, Mari, I want to talk more about that elusive 741 00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,359 Speaker 2: Trump endorsement and whether or not that's likely to come 742 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 2: and what impact you think it will have. Knowing, for example, 743 00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 2: that one of the incumbents who has officially lost his 744 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:54,360 Speaker 2: bid for reelection yesterday, Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw, was defeated 745 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,360 Speaker 2: in his primary, he didn't have the Trump endorsement. Is 746 00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,040 Speaker 2: that a lesson that if and when Trump decides to 747 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 2: speak on this Senate race, it will be definitive. 748 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 6: You know. I think that that comes to the Senate race, 749 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 6: it's a little bit different than some of these districts where, yes, 750 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,960 Speaker 6: Dan Crenshaw had gotten into a little bit of trouble. 751 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,279 Speaker 6: And I think that the Ted Cruz late endorsement of 752 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 6: his opponent, Steve Talk, you know, maybe swathe some people 753 00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 6: in that area in the Woodlands, but by and large, 754 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,759 Speaker 6: I think for Senate as a whole, Trump has to 755 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,279 Speaker 6: realize and he did realize during this first primary right 756 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,880 Speaker 6: that endorsing Kim Paxton was problematic for the party at large, 757 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:32,360 Speaker 6: and so he chose not to it. I'm glad that 758 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 6: he chose not to. I don't know that he can 759 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 6: get over his own ego and not endorse Kim Paxson. 760 00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:38,600 Speaker 6: I think it's going to be a matter of John 761 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 6: Thune and those in the enner I see showing Trump 762 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 6: what he has, what they have on Paxton, so that 763 00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 6: not to embarrass the president, and if they frame it 764 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 6: in that way, maybe he will go ahead and throw 765 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:50,719 Speaker 6: his support behind Cornyn. But I think a lot of 766 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,439 Speaker 6: it comes down to he wants those who are going 767 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,120 Speaker 6: to I hate to say it like this with bow 768 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,239 Speaker 6: down to him in order to get his endorsement, and 769 00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 6: un less they do that, he's not willing to give it. 770 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 6: And I think that financially, the amount of money is 771 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,920 Speaker 6: being spent on this campaign and this primary and to 772 00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 6: the general. It takes away from other races that the 773 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,680 Speaker 6: administration needs. You know, if they don't want to have 774 00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:13,880 Speaker 6: a repeat of what happened in his first term with 775 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,759 Speaker 6: impeachment hearings and things of that nature, then they need 776 00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,200 Speaker 6: to be putting more of their focus on winning and 777 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 6: not just playing to the president's ego. 778 00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 2: Okay, Mora Gillespie of Bluesteck Strategies Republican Strategists, alongside our 779 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,200 Speaker 2: Democratic analyst Genie Shanzano, Democracy Visiting Fellow at the Harvard 780 00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:31,840 Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. 781 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 5: Thank you both. 782 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,440 Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 783 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,440 Speaker 9: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify 784 00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 7: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 785 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,400 Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 786 00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,160 Speaker 7: at Bloomberg dot com.