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Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, everybody. Welcome into the Thursday morning edition of

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolta. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host of this fifteen minute, fun, fun podcast every morning.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: We are here off of Betting pros dot com and

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Speaker 1: always being brought to you by bet MGM Thursday Night

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Speaker 1: Football to get into coming up here tonight. Last night

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Speaker 1: was a little odd. I'm sorry. I don't bet soccer.

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Speaker 1: I know a bunch of you were tweeting me saying,

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Speaker 1: but Matt, you said that there was no sports on

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Speaker 1: and I watched MLS. Great congratulations. Look I played soccer

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Speaker 1: my whole life growing up, but I don't watch MLS.

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Speaker 1: I don't watch soccer. I don't bet soccer. I don't

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Speaker 1: get really the intrigue of it. I'm sure a lot

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Speaker 1: of you guys got through pandemic betting with it, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not knocking you guys for enjoying the Premier League

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Speaker 1: or whatever. A lot of people will bet it, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people make a lot of money on it.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not one of them. So for me, last

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Speaker 1: night was sort of a Yesterday was sort of a

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Speaker 1: day where I didn't do much in the sports world.

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Speaker 1: It was kind of it was nice, it was different,

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Speaker 1: it was sort of a refresher day. It was a

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Speaker 1: chance to kind of get your head away from sports

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Speaker 1: and head away from gambling a little bit. And now

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Speaker 1: we're back in here for a Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 1: Will probably make some college football bets Tomorrow and Saturday,

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Speaker 1: so so Friday and Saturday's podcast will be a lot

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Speaker 1: of college football and then Sunday back into Week eight

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Speaker 1: of the NFL. But tonight we do have the Panthers

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Speaker 1: hosting the Atlanta Falcons, and I have really dug deep

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Speaker 1: into this game. I've gone back and forth, back and

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Speaker 1: forth on this. I will tell you right now that

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Speaker 1: all three of the numbers, all three of the bets

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Speaker 1: I've made, are at bet MGM, So yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: the numbers this. I feel like these numbers are gonna move.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully you get this in the morning, and hopefully

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Speaker 1: you have access to bet MGM, because I do think

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Speaker 1: I got a couple of good numbers here, and I

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Speaker 1: feel like the market is going to swing dramatically as

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Speaker 1: we get closer to kickoff, and there could be a

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Speaker 1: lot of people coming in here on the other side

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Speaker 1: of me. That may drive this number high, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not positive. This is a weird game because Atlanta is

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Speaker 1: so bad, but it's a really important game for the

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Speaker 1: Panthers for their season. So I think this is one

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Speaker 1: of those games where we're gonna find out whether the

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Speaker 1: Panthers are going to be buyers or sellers at the deadline.

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Speaker 1: They're three and four right now in year one of

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Speaker 1: Matt Ruhle, and I talk to a guy in Charlotte

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Speaker 1: on my radio show a little bit about what they're

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Speaker 1: thinking about this game, and they think this is a

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Speaker 1: pivotal game for the entire year, where if Joe Brady

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Speaker 1: and Matt Rule come out and they make some defensive

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Speaker 1: adjustments and they get to four and four, they got

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Speaker 1: two very difficult games coming up. Whether Christian McCaffrey plays

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Speaker 1: tonight or not, which is a game time decision. They've

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Speaker 1: got all they up to four o'clock Eastern to make

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Speaker 1: that call as to whether or not he's going to

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Speaker 1: play and activate him off the IR But even if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't play, they think that this is a game

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Speaker 1: where the Panthers win their four and four and maybe

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Speaker 1: they're looking at a wild card berth maybe they and

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Speaker 1: they could be live for the playoffs. If they lose,

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Speaker 1: they go to three and five with two very difficult

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Speaker 1: games coming up on their schedule, and they might punt

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Speaker 1: on the season, and they might say, look it, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna draft some more defensive players and we're gonna rebuild

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Speaker 1: that defense into Matt Rules liking. We like Joe Brady,

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Speaker 1: we like Teddy Bridgewater, we got McCaffrey. We're not gonna

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Speaker 1: push it, We're not gonna risk it. So this is

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Speaker 1: a pretty important game. So I'm coming in here with

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Speaker 1: a one unit play and I'm coming in here on

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Speaker 1: a couple of props at a quarter unit. But I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm not overly confident about this pick. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: explain it. I'll explain why here in a second. But

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Speaker 1: I'm not, you know, jumping up and down saying yes,

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Speaker 1: I know for sure this is gonna happen, because this

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Speaker 1: is a really important game for the season for the

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers taking on the Atlanta Falcons. But before we

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Speaker 1: do that, reminder about bet MGM and the fact that

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Speaker 1: you can go tonight. You can go download the app.

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Speaker 1: New users use the promo code Juice one hundred. You

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Speaker 1: bet one dollar on the money line for either the

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Speaker 1: Panthers or the Falcons. If either team scores a touchdown tonight,

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Speaker 1: you win one hundred dollars in free wagers thanks to

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. It's that easy. It's that simple. One dollar

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Speaker 1: money line. Either team scores a touchdown, you win one

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Speaker 1: You must be twenty one years or older and physically

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Speaker 1: located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey or West Virginia. Please

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Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. Get a gambling problem called one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: five to two forty seven hundred in Colorado, Nevada, one hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia, or one hundred

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Speaker 1: and nine with it in Indiana. All Right, the line

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Speaker 1: I got is two Carolina minus two against the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of these numbers here. Did you

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Speaker 1: see what the Saints did on third down last week

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Speaker 1: against the Panthers. So we had the Panthers plus seven

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Speaker 1: and a half that covered the Saints win twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty four. New Orleans was twelve of fourteen on

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Speaker 1: third down, twelve four fourteen on third down. That is

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Speaker 1: a disgusting eighty six yeah, eighty five percent, eighty five

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Speaker 1: point seven percent conversion rate on third down. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's unacceptable. New Orleans are not in the NFL. To

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Speaker 1: allow your opposition to convert twelve to fourteen third downs

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Speaker 1: is straight up disgusting. So right now, the Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 1: are the second to worst team on third down defense.

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Speaker 1: What's weird is that the worst team right now getting

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Speaker 1: off the field is the Tennessee Titans. The second to

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Speaker 1: worst the Buffalo Bills. It's kind of odd. It's like,

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Speaker 1: what some of these teams you wouldn't expect to be

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Speaker 1: really bad third down defense are pretty bad third down defense.

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Speaker 1: Carolina is second to worst, Buffalo's thirtieth, New Orleans is

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Speaker 1: twenty ninth, and then some of the you know, the

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Speaker 1: bad teams like the Giants and the Giants and the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: like you'd expect. Seattle also is not very good on

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Speaker 1: third down this year getting off the field. Best on

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Speaker 1: the best this year is Miami which is like what

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Speaker 1: Miami thirty one point three percent of the time getting

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Speaker 1: off the giving up for a conversion on third down,

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Speaker 1: So that's pretty good. Chicago's second to best thirty one

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Speaker 1: point six, Minnesota thirty three, rams thirty four point four.

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Speaker 1: So on the opposite end, here are the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 1: They need to get off the third They got to

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Speaker 1: get off the field on third down here against Matt

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Speaker 1: Ryan and the Falcons. Should the Falcons have won last

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Speaker 1: week against the Lions? Yes? Do they want to tank? Yes?

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Speaker 1: Do they want to play hard and then have exactly

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Speaker 1: what happened last week happened? Yes, they want to win.

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Speaker 1: They want to show that they're playing hard for their fans,

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Speaker 1: and then they want to lose. So last week was

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Speaker 1: perfect for the Atlanta Falcons as to how they want

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Speaker 1: to play. They're not a good football team, but they've

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Speaker 1: got talent. Their defense is so bad, but their offense

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Speaker 1: is still really, really good. And that's part of the

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Speaker 1: problem here in this game. Because on offense, if you

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Speaker 1: look at points per game twenty three point six for

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Speaker 1: Atlanta twenty three point one for the Carolina Panthers, points

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Speaker 1: allowed twenty nine point six per game, for the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: twenty four, twenty four points on the nose for the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: Total yards four to seventeen to three eighty one for offense,

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Speaker 1: yards allowed four hundred and thirty six point nine yards

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Speaker 1: a game given up here for the Falcons. Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 1: thirty five sorry, three hundred and fifty six point nine

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Speaker 1: for the Panthers. Not very good. Now, one in six

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Speaker 1: versus three and four. New Orleans is four and two,

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Speaker 1: Tampa is five and two. So it's a big game

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Speaker 1: in the division. It's a primetime game, short week for

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Speaker 1: both teams. Carolina was on the road, now they're at home,

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Speaker 1: Atlanta traveling to Carolina. There'll be some fans in the

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Speaker 1: stands coming up tonight here for this game. But this

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Speaker 1: is why this is so important for Carolina at three

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Speaker 1: and four, because they play at the Chiefs coming up

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Speaker 1: next week and then home for the Bucks. So if

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Speaker 1: they win this, they go four and four, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be four and six after that. So can they catch

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Speaker 1: New Orleans? I don't know. That's what they're gonna try

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Speaker 1: to do here to get in second place. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: try to get to one of the wild card spots.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to catch Tampa I think is going

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Speaker 1: to win this division. I think they win at least

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Speaker 1: ten games. I bet them over nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I feel very good about that bet for Tampa to

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Speaker 1: win over nine and a half wins. But you look

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Speaker 1: at the schedule after they play the Bucks and the Chiefs, though, Lions, Vikings, Broncos, Packers, Washington,

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Speaker 1: New Orleans all very winnable football games. So if they

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Speaker 1: win tonight, they go four and four, they can say, look,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be four and six, and then we

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Speaker 1: need to try to win as many. We can probably

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Speaker 1: lose one more game and go nine and seven and

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Speaker 1: probably make the playoffs. They might make it at eight

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Speaker 1: and eight even, but probably they need to go nine

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Speaker 1: and seven in the NFC to make the playoffs. Not crazy.

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Speaker 1: Does Matt Ruhle want to make the playoffs? I think

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Speaker 1: he probably does. I mean, if you look at where

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Speaker 1: they are, they're an eleventh space spot right now. New

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Speaker 1: Orleans is in the eighth spot at four and two,

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Speaker 1: then San Francisco at four and three, Lions are at

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Speaker 1: three and three, and the Panthers here at three and four.

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Speaker 1: So if they win, to go to four and four

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Speaker 1: just on a winning percentage wise, they're going to bounce

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Speaker 1: their way up and they're right there, they're in the conversation.

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Speaker 1: They're going to be bouncing around because I think that

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Speaker 1: final seventh and eighth playoff spot is probably gonna be

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Speaker 1: somewhere nine to seven, eight and eight probably when it's

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Speaker 1: all said and done in the postseason. So this is

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Speaker 1: a crucial game for the Panthers. I think they do

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Speaker 1: want to win. I do think that they want to

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Speaker 1: be productive. I mean, Curtis Samuel has had an amazing,

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Speaker 1: amazing emergence in this Teddy Bridgewater offense. He has twelve

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Speaker 1: catches on third down for first downs here for this

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Speaker 1: Carolina offense. The dude just keeps going, making big plays

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Speaker 1: when they absolutely have to have it. But the last

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Speaker 1: time these two teams played, the offensive line for the

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Speaker 1: Falcons dominated, they ran the ball at a six point

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Speaker 1: nine yards per clip. That's worrisome. Okay, you don't ever

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Speaker 1: want to have that happen. You don't like that at all.

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Speaker 1: You want to see some step forward here defensively for Carolina.

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Speaker 1: You want to see them, you know, play better than

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Speaker 1: what they did the first time around. They won at

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Speaker 1: Atlanta twenty three, sixteen. Now, a lot of people are

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Speaker 1: saying the under here is in play between these two teams,

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Speaker 1: because I think the under has hit eleven of the

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Speaker 1: last fourteen times these two teams have played, so everyone

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Speaker 1: thinks it's points points, points, and then it goes the

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Speaker 1: other way. So I'm not gonna go near the total here.

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Speaker 1: I've been very unlucky with betting unders and even betting

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Speaker 1: overs if it's been bad betting totals, so I'm not

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Speaker 1: gonna go near here with the total. But I am

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Speaker 1: taking the Panthers minus two to win this game, whether

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Speaker 1: McCaffrey plays or not. What I'm concerned about and why

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Speaker 1: you should grab it is because if McCaffrey plays, I

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Speaker 1: do think public money's gonna come in here and drive

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Speaker 1: this thing to three, three and a half even potentially,

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Speaker 1: and then everyone's gonna come in here on the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: I think this game is very similar to what we

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Speaker 1: just saw with the Panthers in the Saints. I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a back and forth battle twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty four. I think the home team wins like

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. In the Saints, home team wins, so two

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Speaker 1: two and a half. I like it. Three I don't. Okay,

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Speaker 1: three is a push and maybe a loss. Don't like it.

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Speaker 1: I got it at two. Hopefully you get it at

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Speaker 1: two as well. Bet MGM's where I got it. Minus

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Speaker 1: two Panthers to win, Panthers to cover. I know, before

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Speaker 1: the Rams covered in primetime on Monday Night, it was

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Speaker 1: a zero to eight record for teams against the spread

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Speaker 1: who were favored in primetime. The Rams broke that. I

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Speaker 1: think you'll see it again here. You'll see some leveling out.

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Speaker 1: That will be a stat that will come a little

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Speaker 1: more even so. I think the numbers are gonna come

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Speaker 1: back in our favor here, So I think it's good

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Speaker 1: to fade that to see it happen. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: Carolina minus two here at home against the Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 1: in for our first play. One full unit on that,

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Speaker 1: all right, two props out of half a unit. Now,

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Speaker 1: I did go and use the bettingpros dot Com prop

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Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet, if you will. I've got one playoff

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Speaker 1: of that and then one play on my own. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about DJ and the number for DJ Moore receiving

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Speaker 1: at bet BETMGM right now is seventy six point five.

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Speaker 1: It's juiced up to minus one forty three to the over.

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Speaker 1: According to the bettingpros dot com prop projection, he should

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Speaker 1: have eighty five yards DJ Moore eighty five yards. Well,

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Speaker 1: here is what this guy has done in his career

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Speaker 1: against Atlanta. It's been pretty good. Okay. Last time out

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Speaker 1: in the game earlier this year, he had five catches

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Speaker 1: on sorry, four catches on five targets for ninety three

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Speaker 1: yards twenty three point twenty five average per catch and

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Speaker 1: one touchdown. Okay, he had a really big game. I

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Speaker 1: think we'll have another big game here. DJ Moore to

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Speaker 1: go over seventy six and a half yards receiving. We're

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Speaker 1: going over again. The bettingpros dot Com prop bet cheat sheet,

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Speaker 1: it's the number one prop going tonight. Eighty five yards

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Speaker 1: is a projection that's a difference to seventeen point five

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Speaker 1: yards here it is juiced up to minus one forty three.

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Speaker 1: But I'm coming in here on a half of unit.

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Speaker 1: I think Dj Moore, wipe for the Carolina Panthers, has

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Speaker 1: a big game catch in the football from Teddy Bridge

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Speaker 1: Water and like I mentioned, he has had big games.

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Speaker 1: He had a big game earlier this year against the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: I think he again has another big year, a big game.

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Speaker 1: Catching the ball from Teddy Bridgewater today for our first

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Speaker 1: prop bet and then our second prop bet is actually

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Speaker 1: not on the prop sheet highly, it's actually down further.

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Speaker 1: It's actually the tenth best. But Calvin Ridley is being

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Speaker 1: projected at seventy two and a half yards receiving at

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Speaker 1: bet MGM at mins one point fifteen. The projection is

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Speaker 1: seventy four point three. But historically, Calvin Ridley has destroyed

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. He's played five games against them. He has

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Speaker 1: twenty eight catches for five hundred and nine yards and

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Speaker 1: four touchdowns against these guys. He has owned the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 1: and he has done a great job of beating up

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Speaker 1: because they everyone pays attention to Julio Jones. Okay, everyone's

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Speaker 1: worried about Julio, and at Julio Julio Hio. Oh no,

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Speaker 1: here comes Julio right, and they forget Calvin Ridley. And

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Speaker 1: then Calvin Ridley goes up and puts on big games

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Speaker 1: and they really struggle to stop him. So I like

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Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley here tonight. In the first game, Calvin Ridley

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Speaker 1: had eight catches on ten targets for one hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty six yards seventeen yards per catch average. All right,

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Speaker 1: so he went way over the seventy two and a half. Now,

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Speaker 1: the projections, just the projections on bettingpros dot com. It's

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Speaker 1: not the end all be all, as you guys have

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Speaker 1: been pointing out, you know something's going it wrong. But

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Speaker 1: I like the DJ More and I like the Calvin Ridley.

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Speaker 1: We're going over on both those receiving props here coming

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Speaker 1: up tonight on Thursday Night Football. So once again the

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Speaker 1: place Carolina Panthers minus two. I got it at BETMGM.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind it at minus two and a half,

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Speaker 1: don't like it at three. Panthers at home to win

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Speaker 1: and cover against a team in the Falcons that doesn't

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Speaker 1: really want to win, they want to be competitive. I

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Speaker 1: think the final score is twenty seven to twenty four

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Speaker 1: and a win for the Panthers. That puts the total

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Speaker 1: at fifty one. That's why I'm not playing the total

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Speaker 1: or stay away from that. I think that's right, that

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Speaker 1: numbers right where it should be. I got the Panthers

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Speaker 1: minus two at one unit quarter unit on either play.

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Speaker 1: DJ Moore over seventy six and a half yards receiving

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Speaker 1: at minus one forty three and Calvin Ridley over seventy

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Speaker 1: two and a half yards receiving at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Both those props are available at BETMGM. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. Great stuff. Having a football game to watch tonight.

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Speaker 1: Remember we're gonna be on the Discord channel. Go to

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash chat Bettingpros dot com slast chat.

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Speaker 1: I will be on it all night, all game long, watching, hoping,

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Speaker 1: pulling for the Panthers to come through here. I know

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Speaker 1: this play is a little bit public. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: on the public side. I understand that, but I don't

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Speaker 1: really I can't. I'm not going contrary with the Atlanta Falcons, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm just not. You're gonna see a lot of people

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Speaker 1: bet pick the Falcons. They're gonna wait till they can

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Speaker 1: get to plus three and they'll take the Falcons. I'm

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Speaker 1: laying the minus two on the Panthers, and I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: that we get a three point victory, so we cash,

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Speaker 1: they push and it's all good, right, that's the hope.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt peroult I'll talk to you in

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Every morning, it's the Daily Juice podcast over bettingpros dot Com,

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Speaker 1: presented by BETEMGM