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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. As the war in

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Speaker 1: Iran drags on and draws in more countries, it's had

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Speaker 1: unlikely benefits for one of Iran's key allies, Russia. The

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Speaker 1: US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase

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Speaker 1: its purchases of Russian oil. With the Strait of Hormuz

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Speaker 1: effectively closed, choking off global oil supplies, the Trump administration

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Speaker 1: has taken the remarkable step of temporarily loosening sanctions on Russia.

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Speaker 2: It started with a limited waiver for India to purchase

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Speaker 2: this oil that was already in transit, and for a

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Speaker 2: limited time, for only one month. You know, we've seen

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration widen that waiver, and the European Allies

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Speaker 2: has come out and condemned that.

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Speaker 1: Natalia Drosdiak covers US Defense and Intelligence for Bloomberg. She

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Speaker 1: says that the US's decision to roll back some same

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Speaker 1: on Russia hasn't done much to move the price of oil,

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Speaker 1: which is still hovering above one hundred dollars a barrel,

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Speaker 1: but it has been a symbolic win for Russia as

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Speaker 1: it continues to wage war in Ukraine and forges a

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Speaker 1: closer relationship to Iran.

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Speaker 2: I think the question is also if this drags on longer,

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Speaker 2: or if the US decides to issue more waivers, there

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Speaker 2: is a prospect of more benefits coming its way, and

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Speaker 2: whereas we don't really see the prospect of more pressure

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Speaker 2: coming its way at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Since President Donald Trump returned to office, he's taken meetings

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Speaker 1: with Russian President Vladimir Putin and scaled back US support

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine. He's also alienated NATO, the military alliance that's

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Speaker 1: been providing key support for Ukraine's war efforts, and after

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Speaker 1: Trump started a war with Iran in February, the relationship

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Speaker 1: with NATO has been under new strings. This weekend, Trump

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Speaker 1: told the Financial Time in a phone call that he

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Speaker 1: expected NATO to assist the US in keeping the Strait

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Speaker 1: of Hormuz open. Trump told the paper quote, if there's

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Speaker 1: no response, or if it's a negative response, I think

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Speaker 1: it will be very bad for the future of NATO.

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Speaker 1: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News today. On the show, What Russia stands to

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Speaker 1: gain and lose from the war in Iran, how rising

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Speaker 1: oil prices and conflict in the Middle East could impact

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Speaker 1: Russia's war in Ukraine, its economy, and the US's global alliances.

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Speaker 1: So Natalia. As the US and Israel's war with Iran

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Speaker 1: widens and continues, I wanted to talk to you about

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Speaker 1: where Russia fits in. Russia and Iran have been allies

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Speaker 1: for a long time. Can you give us a quick

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Speaker 1: overview of that relationship.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So, you know, Russia and Iran's relationship really deepened,

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Speaker 2: I would say over the last few years since the

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Speaker 2: start of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two, and so they reached out to Iran and

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Speaker 2: that resulted in Iran transferring these sha head drones as

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Speaker 2: well as ballistic missiles. Later on, they also provided Russia

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Speaker 2: with know how to produce those drones and build them

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Speaker 2: up themselves. There has been intelligence sharing already happening, with

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Speaker 2: the Russians sharing sensitive military information and know how. That

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Speaker 2: critically also lessons learned about how those Iranian drones work

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Speaker 2: on the battlefield, and you know how they've been countered.

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Speaker 2: And last year they even signed a partnership to kind

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Speaker 2: of cement that relationship.

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Speaker 1: Given that deepening relationship, what does Russia have to gain

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Speaker 1: or lose in this war.

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Speaker 2: Well, in some sense, you know, they don't want the

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Speaker 2: US and its allies to succeed, and success from that

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Speaker 2: perspective would look look like Iran becoming more moderate or weak.

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Speaker 2: So in that respect, Putin would want to keep hardliners

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Speaker 2: in Tehran to maintain that support, maintain that relationship. But

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Speaker 2: you know they also have I mean, they're benefiting from

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Speaker 2: the war going on and dragging on, as we've been

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Speaker 2: seeing with the price of oil. This is critical to

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Speaker 2: Russia's economy.

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Speaker 1: What has Putin said about the level of coordination between

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Speaker 1: Moscow and Tehran? Has he confirmed that, you know, Russia

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Speaker 1: has been providing this intelligence.

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Speaker 2: According to Steve Wikoff, Trump's envoy, the Russians denied that,

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Speaker 2: and you know, some of the folks around Trump are

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Speaker 2: ready to believe that denial. Although you know, we did

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Speaker 2: hear Trump saying that it seems like the Russians were

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Speaker 2: helping the Iranians at least a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Do we know if Iran has been acting on that intelligence.

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Speaker 2: Well, we can only assume. I don't think we have

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Speaker 2: specific information tying like Iranian strikes to Russian intelligence, for example,

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Speaker 2: but we can only assume that it's at least been

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Speaker 2: somewhat helpful, you know, in terms of other information, we

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Speaker 2: know that that's also included, like targeting and satellite imagery

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Speaker 2: to help them pinpoint where US forces are in the region.

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Speaker 2: One of the key questions going forward will be, you know,

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Speaker 2: how regular and timely that information is transferred to Iran.

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Speaker 2: You know, whether it was just a one off or

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Speaker 2: if it's kind of a systematic transfer of information. That

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Speaker 2: makes a big difference. Of course, you know, Trump and

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Speaker 2: other administration officials say it hasn't.

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Speaker 1: Beyond you know, intelligent sharing. What tactic do you see

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Speaker 1: Iron taking from Russia's playbook?

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Speaker 2: Well, one of the key tactics that we're seeing over

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Speaker 2: the last few days, which you know they either received

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Speaker 2: as direct advice from the Russians or as passive advice

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Speaker 2: just watching Russian tactics in Ukraine, was to target Allied

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Speaker 2: oil infrastructure as a way to inflict pain on their enemy.

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Speaker 1: How is the US thinking about this dynamic and Russia's

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Speaker 1: role here?

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Speaker 2: In some senses, they've been more willing to look past

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Speaker 2: the Russian support to Oran, you know, with comments like

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Speaker 2: saying that, you know, whatever support they have been giving

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Speaker 2: has been very limited and not very impactful. So there

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Speaker 2: seems to be some sort of degree of, you know,

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Speaker 2: willingness to let it slide. And then in addition to that,

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Speaker 2: we're seeing the US roll back some of the sanctions

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Speaker 2: on oil or at least issue these temporary waivers. So

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Speaker 2: you know, the priority with the Trump administration right now

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Speaker 2: is clearly not to maintain or even increase pressure on Russia.

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Speaker 2: It's fully focused on Iran, but those two are linked.

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Speaker 1: We'll dig into what the easing of those sanctions mean

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Speaker 1: for the global oil market, for Russia and for Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and its allies after the break. Since Russia launched its

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Speaker 1: full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, the

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Speaker 1: US has imposed strict sanctions on buying Russian oil, but

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Speaker 1: on March fifth, the US issued a temporary authorization letting

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Speaker 1: India buy more Russian oil already out at sea on tankers,

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Speaker 1: and last week the US widened that waiver to create

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Speaker 1: a one month wait for countries to buy more Russian

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Speaker 1: oil that's already in transit. I asked Bloomberg's Natalia Drosdiak

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Speaker 1: what we know about how the Trump administration came to

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Speaker 1: that decision.

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Speaker 2: So the Trump administration has come under a lot of

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Speaker 2: pressure in recent days because of the spiking price of oil,

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Speaker 2: and that comes at a time when they've promised the

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Speaker 2: American people that they are laser focused on affordability and

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Speaker 2: reducing the price of gas and other goods, groceries. Or

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Speaker 2: that's what's led them at least to look at these

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Speaker 2: waivers on Russian oil.

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Speaker 1: And how much of an effect could this move actually

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Speaker 1: have on oil prices around the world, while.

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Speaker 2: We're seeing that the waiver that they issued for India

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Speaker 2: had only a relatively limited impact. Because this really is

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Speaker 2: dealing with a small fraction of the global oil market,

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Speaker 2: and the key issue is really about access through the

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Speaker 2: strait of horror moves, and that's what's driving the price

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Speaker 2: of oil. So even as the administration has widened some

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Speaker 2: of those waivers, it's unlikely to have a major impact

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Speaker 2: on the price of oil.

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Speaker 1: But I mean that measure, you know, temporarily lifting sanctions

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Speaker 1: on Russia, even in a limited way, is a pretty

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Speaker 1: bold move. The president of the European Union Ursula Vonderlion,

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Speaker 1: has said that this is not the moment for the

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Speaker 1: US to be easing sanctions on Russian oil. So I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: could this move by the US strain the relationship with

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Speaker 1: Europe and how does that play for Russia?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the relationship has already been

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Speaker 2: strained for quite some months. I mean, especially on other

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Speaker 2: issues trade, but also on threats over Greenland, and so

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Speaker 2: this certainly isn't helping. And then this example of them

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Speaker 2: trying to convince Trump not to roll back these sanctions

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Speaker 2: or at least weaken them, and then you know, them

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Speaker 2: going ahead with it anyway, I think that's just really

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Speaker 2: adding to the frustration.

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Speaker 1: Well, how big of a win is this, this rolling

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Speaker 1: back of these sanctions for Russia.

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Speaker 2: I think it is a big win because you know,

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Speaker 2: just a few months ago there was talk about whether

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration could actually impose more. You know, they've

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Speaker 2: touted these these sanctions as examples of them not being

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Speaker 2: soft on Putin and on Russia and the impact that

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Speaker 2: they've had on the Russian economy, and now, you know,

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Speaker 2: rolling these back in a limited way, even if just limited,

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Speaker 2: is just not a great sign. I think the concern

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Speaker 2: is also what if there's more like, what if this

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Speaker 2: continues and the Russians are already benefiting from the spike

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Speaker 2: in the price of oil, which is critical for them

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Speaker 2: because this is the backbone of their economy. This is

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Speaker 2: how they financed their war in Ukraine, so any relief

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Speaker 2: in addition to that is only going to benefit them,

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Speaker 2: even if it's relatively limited.

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Speaker 1: As you mentioned, one of the open questions is about,

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Speaker 1: you know, how this easing of sanctions could lead to

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Speaker 1: other moves. Right the limited lifting of sanctions is supposed

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Speaker 1: to be temporary. It's set to last till April eleventh,

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Speaker 1: But can this genie be put back into the bottle

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Speaker 1: Once these sanctions are lifted, even in this limited way,

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Speaker 1: how hard might it be to reinstate them.

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Speaker 2: I think they could manage that because, like I said,

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Speaker 2: this seems to be targeting oil that was already in transit.

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Speaker 2: I think if they went further than them, then that

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Speaker 2: it could be more complicated. The question is also as

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Speaker 2: the strikes on, how desperate does the US government become

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Speaker 2: and do they go further and then it becomes even

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Speaker 2: harder to reimpose them.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious about some of the other ways this war

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Speaker 1: might end up benefiting Russia or be seen by Russia

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Speaker 1: as beneficial to their aims for starters. I'm thinking about

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Speaker 1: the way that this might you know, draw attention away

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Speaker 1: from its own war with Ukraine or draw away US

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Speaker 1: munitions that could be sent to Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is a key worry for Ukraine

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Speaker 2: and its European allies. So we've seen the Ukrainians tell

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Speaker 2: the Americans that they'd be willing to share information and

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Speaker 2: specialists that know how to counter those Iranian drones because

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Speaker 2: they've had all this experience over the last few years

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Speaker 2: in dealing with that on the battlefield, and that seems,

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Speaker 2: you know, to be an effort by the Ukrainians toe

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Speaker 2: curry good favor with the US. I mean, the one

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Speaker 2: thing I will say about the Ukrainian drone support is,

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Speaker 2: you know, this is something that they've been talking about

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Speaker 2: for months and even before the outbreak of the war.

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Speaker 2: The US and Trump has been really interested in that

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Speaker 2: because I think there's been a recognition that drones are

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Speaker 2: going to be a critical element of any future warfare.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen that play out on the battlefield in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine in terms of how that quickly shifted into a

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Speaker 2: battle of drones between Russian and Ukraine. And we've seen

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Speaker 2: that bear out over the last few days in Iran,

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Speaker 2: and you know how the US and its allies have

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Speaker 2: been put on their heels to some degree by the

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Speaker 2: vast use of these relatively cheap drones that has forced

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Speaker 2: the US and allies to counter them with more expensive interceptors.

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Speaker 2: But you know, at the same time, there is a

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Speaker 2: real concern about the weapons stockpiles, because if this drags

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Speaker 2: on for many months, that's going to make it a

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Speaker 2: lot harder for Ukraine and Europe to buy those critical

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Speaker 2: American weapons that they rely on. And you know, especially

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Speaker 2: if the US decides they want to prioritize the Middle

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Speaker 2: East and supporting the operation.

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Speaker 1: There, does the fact that the US is leaning on

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Speaker 1: Ukraine in some ways for that expertise in drone defense

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Speaker 1: strengthen the relationship between the US and Ukraine moving forward.

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Speaker 2: I think that's what the Ukrainians are hoping for, but

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Speaker 2: you know, so far, we're not seeing that translate into

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Speaker 2: stronger pressure on Russia.

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering the longer the Iron War drags on, what

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Speaker 1: could this conflict mean for the future of the war

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Speaker 1: between Russia and Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a real risk that the US

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Speaker 2: and even European allies become distracted. I think that's something

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Speaker 2: that Putin probably hopes for to some degree as he's

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Speaker 2: been you know, his major tactic has been stalling for time.

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Speaker 2: And if you know, the more that the US and

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Speaker 2: Europe are distracted by what's happening in the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: the little less pressure he faces to end the war.

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Speaker 2: So it could mean the longer that the war drags

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Speaker 2: out in Iran, the longer the war drags out in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine as well.

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Speaker 1: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

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