1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: turn to Giant Wood at Showy Bank for America's court. 7 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: He has had a research investment committee. Chard always grab 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: to catch up with you. Muhammadal Arrian, writing in the 9 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 1: FT this morning, the inherent instability of the goldilocks market consensus. 10 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: Do you think that outlook, that nice goldie looks outlook 11 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 1: that many people have, Jared, do you think that is unstable? Well, 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: thanks Shan. First of all, I think that Bohammad maybe 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: hoping for a consensus where I certainly don't see what 14 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: I mean. Thinking about investor uh comments and questions this year, 15 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: they have been entirely dominated by fears about things getting 16 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,279 Speaker 1: too hot, too much, stimulus, too much, you know, central 17 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: bank easing is the is the reopening happening too quickly? 18 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: You know? For for for markets, I mean, these have 19 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: been the questions that have been constantly put to us, 20 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 1: and I think that the the truth is are joking 21 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: at the beginning of segment. You know, the markets have 22 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: digested all this incredibly well. You know the fixes that 23 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: you know sixteen thirty and and so the big takeaway 24 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: for us is that, in fact, the most contrarian view, 25 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: I think that the most out of consensus thought right 26 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: now is that things might actually continue to go well. 27 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: You may even start to see uh, some deflationary forces 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: kind of work their way back into the system in 29 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: second half of this year, in the start of next year, Jared, 30 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: what percentage of long only by side, the more traditional 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: investment is off their bogey. If they're tight, are square 32 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: to the market. They want to be like the SB five, 33 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: even if they're removed from it on the edge of 34 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: hedge fund. How many people behind right now? I think 35 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: a lot of people have gotten positioned for for reopening 36 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: from reflation. They've gotten into some of these value trades, 37 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: some of the cyclical sectors, especially financials and and uh 38 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: energy materials a little bit um, but they're not completely offsides. 39 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: And in fact, in most of our measures are internal 40 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: proprietary measures suggest that investors have pulled back in positioning 41 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: over the last several weeks, they're they're you know, somewhere 42 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 1: closer to neutral from much more aggressive levels earlier this year. 43 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 1: So I think that the fear of you know, aggressive 44 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: investor positioning, people are overly exuberant about the market um 45 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: and that's going to give us, you know, some kind 46 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: of altility. I think that might be a little bit 47 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: misplaced here a list. So this is incredibly important, and 48 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: that the behavior wrapped around all this blah blah blah 49 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,839 Speaker 1: we do is critical. And as Mr Wardards says, they're 50 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: people aren't born, are aren't on board the bull market enthusiasts. 51 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: And you can see this particularly in the bond market 52 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: right the fact that we can get that bid into 53 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: the long end, we do see a flattening yield curve. 54 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 1: And Jared, do you think that the bond market and 55 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: the message there that is a lot less bullish than 56 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: the message from equities is translating into the equities. Have 57 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: we seen the full play out of a less inflationary 58 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: reality within the equity spectrum? No? I think I think 59 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: at least it's exactly in the equity market where you see, 60 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: you know, the biggest potential change over the second half 61 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: of this year. You know, if it's true our economists 62 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: have been suggesting, for example, you know, you could see uh, 63 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: some downward pressure on price indexes from goods as people 64 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: shift from goods to services. As September unemployment benefits expire 65 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: and all the kind of consumer behavior changes into this fault, 66 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: you could start to see, um, some of these the 67 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: short term price pressures actually moderate in the way that 68 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: economists and beneficials have been promising for some time. People 69 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: a few months ago were you know, terrified of of 70 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: the cost of lumber. You can't go to the store 71 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: and buy you know, buy some plywood. Well lumbers fallen 72 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: from its peak, um, and so none of the is 73 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: you know, disinflationary or even to just return to normalcy. Um. 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: Sort of economic pressures I think are factor in the 75 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: equity market today. People are still you know, on one 76 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: side in terms of the reflation trade of a much 77 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: more balanced portfolio, which is what we've been recommending for 78 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: for a while. Um. I think it's gonna suit investors 79 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: better as reopening becomes normalcy in the economic market and 80 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 1: and in financial markets. Jared always shop super Smart's gonna 81 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: hear from your child Wood at their Bank America Securities 82 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: head of Research Investment Committee. When you go off of Bosie, 83 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: you learn that there's a complexity here. John John is 84 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: just not a simple yield down, price up kind of analysis. 85 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: There's some real complexity. Let's talk about that complexity now. 86 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: Vista joins us. Morgan Stanley had a fixed income research 87 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 1: and Visually, let's start with just a simple one. The 88 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: headline from your research, credit is vulnerable to a negative surprise, 89 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: how su Vis? Basically, the valuations in credit have gotten 90 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: so tight that there is not a lot of room. 91 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 1: There's not a lot of buffer for for any change 92 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,679 Speaker 1: in the defects response function. If we have a any 93 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: change in the expectations about the liquidity broke backdrop that 94 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: the FED has been providing for for a long time now, 95 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: and any of those kinds of that a hawkish tilt 96 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: from the Fed, we think it's going to be negative 97 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: for credit. Macchially, what do you cite to people that 98 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: think there's a massive put here from the Fed in 99 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: credit at the moment that we can't have what is 100 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: spread because the Fed is there to back things up. 101 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: I think there is you can think of that there 102 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: is a fact put. But it's I would since you 103 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: put it in that language, I would say that put 104 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: is significantly out of the money put. You need to 105 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: see a lot you know, the put is not it's 106 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: not another the money put. So you need a substantial 107 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: dislocation in the create markets to occur before the put 108 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: can come in. UM. So it's not a it's not 109 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: that will we won't see um you know, fifteen twenty 110 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: business point whymening UM under the FED put becomes functional 111 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 1: if you need to see the order of magnitude of 112 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: what we saw in March of last year, that level 113 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 1: of dislocation in the market, you know, companies, high quality 114 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: companies losing access to UH, to the CLAID markets. Those 115 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: types of dislocations would you can conceivably imagine FIT stepping in, 116 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: but not for a fifteen twenty you know, sort of 117 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: a more UH you know business point type more investment 118 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: grate spreads. Visually, your projection here has a pretty profound implication. 119 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: That is that perhaps credit spread trades more in tandem 120 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: with FED policy than actual credit worthiness of companies. In 121 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: the past, these were two distinct issues where typically when 122 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: the economy was getting better, credit would do better. The 123 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: spreads would actually come in because these companies had a 124 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: better chance of doing well in Thattic economy and paying 125 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,679 Speaker 1: back their debt. Have we moved to an area where 126 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: credit does not necessarily track the ability for a company 127 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: to pay back it's money. It's it's it's borrowings. I 128 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: would I want to. I think it's good to distinguish 129 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: between what's happening in the high quality investment grade credit 130 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: versus high high yeld credit here. I think what you've 131 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: just said is probably more true for the high heel 132 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: company companies. But investment grade credit is really at pretty 133 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: much historical tights at this point, and the Great market 134 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: has been a substantial beneficiary of the of quantity releasing 135 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: and the low rates, and any change to that, we 136 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: think there is not enough of a buffer in terms 137 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: of spreads for the Great markets to absorb. Not so 138 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: much when you look at the high yeld there is 139 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: some buffer there for that to happen. So as the 140 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: economy gets better, the prospects for there is still some 141 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: prospects for high ye low higher bonds and leverage loans 142 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: to get tighter, but that room for tightening is simply 143 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: on their investment grade Therefore, what we see is this 144 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: um the situation where there's a clear difference between um 145 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: HI yield and investment grade. This is actually a fascinating 146 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: discussion and highlights why so many investment managers prefer high 147 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: yield even though it's known as riskier to investment grade. 148 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: Right now, visually, can you walk us through the pathway 149 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: of transmission the idea here of if the Fed does 150 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: get more hawkish, does that mean higher benchmark yields, higher 151 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: spreads or wider spreads and then all in losses that 152 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: are really substantial? Is that what you're projecting here? Actually, 153 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting any all in credit losses. We're not 154 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: suggesting a forceful pick up. We are. What we are 155 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: suggesting is the compensation for investment grade. The spread is 156 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: the compensation for taking all that great risk. It's the 157 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: if you it's if you look at can it get 158 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: tighter as economy gets better? Can the markets actually accept 159 00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: lower compensation for taking on investment grade credit? Um? That's 160 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: that that it's really not that much a scope there. 161 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: On the other hand, if the economy debates get higher, 162 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: the amount of liquidity in the market eas somewhat um 163 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: could they get wider um. We think that they very 164 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: much the case that they could get wider without affecting 165 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: the verall default rate visually, in that we think the 166 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 1: false will go up in the equity market, and I 167 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: want to pick up on that theme in just a moment. 168 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: In the equity market, when you bring up the prospect 169 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: of exuberance and bubbles, people always benchmark it's what happened 170 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: in two thousand and say, well, it's nothing like then, 171 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 1: so there's nothing to worry about now. In the credit market, 172 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 1: they'll look at spreads and say things are tight, but 173 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: they're the tightest since two thousand and seven, and this 174 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: is not two thousand and seven. Could you do me 175 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: a favor, Can you adjust where spreads are at the moment, 176 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: for quality, for duration, and give me a better picture 177 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: of the parallel between now and oh seven. Right, we 178 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,079 Speaker 1: do that, and my my colleagues just recently published a 179 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 1: piece just addressing that. So adjusting for for everything, we 180 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: still think we at pretty close to kicking all of 181 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: those factors into account. Um, you are at all time 182 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: tights in investment grade, not so much in HILD. There 183 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: is a substantial room in HILD, roughly hundred basis points 184 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: in terms of gestured spreads in high yield the hail 185 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: want but investment grade. We are through the Kites of 186 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: two thousand seven all time sites on i G potentially visual, unreal, 187 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: gonna catch out visually through Morgan Stanley had a fixed 188 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: income research on a bit of a clinic TALM and 189 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: was happening in the credit market at the moment. Let's 190 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: save ourselves as Semasha here June thirty, two thousand, twenty 191 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: one SEAS with principle global Semen, What did you change 192 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: in your mid year outlook? Hi, tom Um in terms 193 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: of the changes, you know, I think that how we 194 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: started the year, isn't you different? You know, we we 195 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: came in. I think most people are expecting inflation to 196 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: pick up. UM. We we had a timeline for tapering. 197 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: I don't think anything has changed in UM. If anything, 198 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: that the summer is going to be a little bit 199 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: more difficult with I think you should see a bit 200 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: more volatility. I think there's a lot of vulnerabilities in 201 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,319 Speaker 1: the market, but we're still holding on to our tenure 202 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: target of around one eighty five by the end of 203 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: the year, and I don't be much changed on that. 204 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: This goes to the quote from Pita Cheer of Academy. 205 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: I'll be catching up with him in an hour or so. 206 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: Take some gains, reduced risk, and enjoy a few weeks 207 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: with less stress. Do you agree with that, Sema? Well, 208 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: I think the thing is that for investors, they need 209 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 1: to look through some of the noise over the coming months. 210 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: You know, there isn't too much be worried about. If 211 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: you're looking at taking a six month to one year 212 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: of you there is still a strong economic recovery underway. 213 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: You may get a few concerns around the fair, the 214 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: concerns about inflation, and given how expensive equities are, you know, 215 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: there's certainly vulnerability for a bit of a bit of 216 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: a kind of a tumble here and there. But the 217 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 1: long term view is certainly continued to rand an ecture market, 218 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: how many people believe continue strength and cyclicals as well. 219 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: And Seema, it continues to and either or cyclicals, value 220 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 1: or growth, which basically for many people comes down to 221 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: big tech, energy or financials. Take your pick on a 222 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: sector that's your style, your factor. And I'm trying to understand, Sema, 223 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: can you envision a scenario where the SMP five hundred 224 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: just finishes the year lower from where we are right now. 225 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's entirely possible, um and this 226 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why I think increasingly invested 227 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: me to look under the surface, start thinking about the 228 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: sectors the company that you're looking at. And the reason 229 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: for that is that, look, you know, we still have 230 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: a generally positive long term view for secular growth dogs, right, 231 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: so essentially technology. But if you get to a point 232 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: where cyclical start doing really well and you have the 233 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 1: yield can of wants again taking or just generally yield rising, 234 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: then tech gets into a bit of difficulty. And given 235 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: its waiting in in the SMP five hundred, that is 236 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: a possibility that you have a lower SMP five hundred, 237 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: even a ruly strong growth environment where cyclicals do well. 238 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: So this is the time that investors need to really 239 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: understand not just look at the index, but look at 240 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: the various sectors that they're investing in SEEMA and a 241 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: broader level. I'm wondering to muhammadalarians point, do you see 242 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: goldilocks being a perilous zone to be in that it 243 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: has an expiration date that one point one thing will 244 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: have to break either inflation will either have to break 245 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: out too high or the credit cycle will have to 246 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: start rolling over. Well, I think with his point it 247 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 1: was interesting in that, you know, I'm kind of disagree. 248 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 1: I feel like people have become more and more aware 249 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: of the very various risks. We have a client asking 250 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: how do we have the inflation protection to our portfolio? 251 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 1: So I think there is recognition that there are many 252 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 1: different risks out there at the moment. But I think 253 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: the really interesting part of our areas um comments were 254 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: about the very structural changes that are taking place in 255 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: the economy, which may funny end up in slightly higher 256 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 1: inflation that we've had in the last decade, things like 257 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: the supply change. How are people, however, as companies thinking 258 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: about their inventories, um, just even with regards to central 259 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: banks of the way that they're reviewing inflation. These are 260 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: fundamental changes which you're gonna take some time to play out, 261 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: and I think that's where we need a bit more 262 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 1: focused from the time. How do they weigh into your 263 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: investment thesis? In other words, how do you price in 264 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: the very specific inflationary pressures of this modern era. Yeah, 265 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: so we still think that Look, you know, we do 266 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: have elevating inflation, and even after this, you know, the 267 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: so called transitory effect. Said, now we still think we'll 268 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: have inflation higher than what we've had it for the 269 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: last decade, not a worrying height, but certainly around there 270 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: two to two and a half percent level. And in 271 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: the medium term, when we have elevating inflation, investors need 272 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: to have that inflation protection. You know, we can talk 273 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: about man who we talk about cyclicals and do the 274 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: best area to you have that protection. It was in 275 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: real estate because you don't suffer that volatility, and as 276 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: long as it's accompanied by a strong growth environment, real 277 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: estate tends to do better in these kinds of environments. 278 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: So that's where are our favorite picking for this inflation environment. 279 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: What do you do on a strategy basis with profitable 280 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 1: technology companies? So we have actually maintained an overweight to tech. 281 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: That's a couple of reasons. One is that you know, 282 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: from a long term basis, these companies they have this 283 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: strong cash flow, they have the balance sheet, and they 284 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: are where most companies if they cann't survive over this 285 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: difficult period last year and this year, probably next year, 286 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: they need to use technology to pivot their business models. 287 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: So tech is not going away. The other thing is 288 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: is that it's a differensive trade. You know, when we 289 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: have concerns about hawk ish fed growth out the tech 290 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: tends to do well. Just as were saying over the 291 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: last few weeks, So as to as it makes sense 292 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: to have that as a defensive portions within your portfolio 293 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: and hold it through the long term. The key rist 294 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: because obviously regulations. But as you were discussing before, um 295 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: text seems to be able to deal with those kind 296 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: of pressures. Can I get everything you just said by 297 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: just owning the index? Really good question? Sorry I misheard that. 298 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: What was up? Can I get everything you've just said 299 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: in the last ten minutes by just owning the index 300 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: on the s No, I think you need to. You 301 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: really need to actively look at what you're investing in. 302 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: You know, there's gonna be some secretical sectors that do well. 303 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: You need to have a little bit of valuance, a 304 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: little bit of growth that you absolutely need to pick well. 305 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: Because over the coming months, as the restation trade becomes 306 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: I remember one of the beautiful saying, it becomes a 307 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: bit more normal, some of those companies are not going 308 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: to do as well. They've been enjoying over the last 309 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: few months. So we need to be a little bit 310 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: more competent, a bit more active in a way that 311 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: invested are looking at the SAMA. Thank you. It's going 312 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: to hear from the Principal Club Investors chief strategist right now. 313 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: He is from the sixth district election to Kentucky. Must 314 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: be a Republican, We know that. Andrew Barr joins, it's 315 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: Andy Barr. And what Andy Barnos is The Fayette County 316 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: Board of Elections is run a little bit better than 317 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: the New York City Board of Elections. They can count 318 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: the votes down there. Andy, to go to the votes 319 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: in your election, you're not a borderline congressman. You won 320 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: fifty seven point three percent to fort for the evil Democrat. 321 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: What do the Republicans need to do right now that 322 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: they are in much tighter districts to make two thousand 323 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: twenty two a good outcome. I think we need to 324 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: address the concerns of the American people. You just we're 325 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: talking about the labor shortage crisis in the country, concerns 326 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: about inflation. These are real. The Fed says and Janet 327 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: Yellen say that it's transitory. I'm not so sure when 328 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: you talk to the homebuilders, when you talk to people 329 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: who have to purchase the lumber and the steel, and 330 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 1: you you talk to um the restaurateurs who are buying food, 331 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: and the trucking companies that are dealing with higher fuel costs. 332 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: Inflation is real and it's a crisis. So I think 333 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: speaking to those basic pocketbook concerns of the American people 334 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 1: is what's going to deliver the majority back to us. 335 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 1: But it's not about the politics. It's about solving these problems. 336 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: And and we do have challenges facing us in the country. 337 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: What should your own Powell do in his policy? Should 338 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: he address Lexington, contut Ucky? Or should he address something 339 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: like New York City. He's got to address us all. 340 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: How does he do that well? I think what the 341 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: FED should be doing is listening to Robert capp On, 342 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 1: the president of the Dallas FED, who has been the 343 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: most hawkish on this inflation question, and to his credit, 344 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: Chairman Poal has encouraged um UH, these dissenting voices to 345 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: talk about the real issue of inflation. And and we 346 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: do not need to be buying forty billion dollars a 347 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: month and mortgage backed securities with home prices going through 348 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: the roof. Uh, this is fuel to what could be 349 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: another bubble, and we need to watch and guard against that. Look, 350 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: we've had historic levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus pushed 351 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: into this economy. We are in recovery, but this is 352 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: fueling a potential asset bubble that could create major problems 353 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: going forward. And we don't need a situation where the 354 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: Fed is forced to slam on the brakes and push 355 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: us into recession. Congressman, let's talk about the infrastructure spending plan, 356 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: the five billion dollar bipartisan deal that was struck. At 357 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: what point would you be willing to sign off on 358 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: that even if there were a reconciliation bill that was 359 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: sort of attached to it the Democrats were pushing through. 360 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: Do you have a price tag on how high you 361 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 1: would be willing to accept for that bill. It's not 362 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 1: as much about a specific price tag, Lisa. It's more 363 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: about are we focused on core, real infrastructure and we're 364 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: not tying it to an unrelated um green New Deal 365 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: or social spending agenda that has nothing to do with 366 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 1: the needs of the country. Look, we need a bipartisan 367 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 1: deal to rebuild our country's infrastructure. Look no further than 368 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 1: seventy five miles north of my home district in Lexington, Kentucky. 369 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: You see the Brent Spence Bridge falling into the Ohio River. 370 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: This is a major source of interstate commerce, tying Detroit 371 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: to Tampa, through Cincinnati and northern Kentucky. This is a 372 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: critical infrastructure project. But there's more of these all around 373 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: the country. And we need to rebuild our country's infrastry 374 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: ructure for growth, for safety, for the efficiency of our 375 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: economy and productivity. But the key is are we going 376 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: to do so the right way? Are we going to 377 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 1: do so so through streamlining, permitting and regulatory reform and 378 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: slashing red tape which would save three point seven trillion dollars? 379 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 1: Are we going to do it through private capital as 380 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: opposed to imposing huge new taxes on the American people 381 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: that would make us uncompetitive and forced US corporations to 382 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 1: uh move towards inversions again and move capital and jobs overseas. 383 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: That's the question. What does it look like and is 384 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 1: it really focused on core infrastructure? Congressman, would you be 385 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: willing to sign off in the five D seventy nine 386 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: billion dollar plan regardless of what happens elsewhere because of 387 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: the need that you're talking about to rebuild some of 388 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 1: those bridges and rows. Yeah, the bipartisan deal struck in 389 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: the Senate looks good. But what was very discouraging is 390 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 1: when President Biden, I think forced by his hand, was 391 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,360 Speaker 1: forced by the the extreme far left and the Progressives 392 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: to iy it to this reconciliation bill that would massively 393 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: expand the welfare state. I think him walking that back 394 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 1: gives us more hope. Um, but look, the Democrats are 395 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: having a really hard time around right now internally deciding 396 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: what it is that they can do. Would you sign 397 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: off on the billion dollar plan regardless of what happens 398 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: on the other side. Yeah. I I've looked at the 399 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 1: over the kind of the broad parameters and it looks positive, 400 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 1: much better than what where the administration started. So the 401 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: details have had yet to be put into a bill, 402 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: so I would want to see that before I would 403 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: commit to it. But yes, certainly this is much closer 404 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: to or in the ballpark, if you will, than what 405 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: we were seeing earlier from the administration and untethering it 406 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 1: from all of the other um far left wing agenda 407 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: is is it gives us hope that there can be 408 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: a bi partisan agreement. I would be surprised if we 409 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: got there until the fall because of the demands of 410 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 1: of the far left in the House. And uh, you know, 411 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: the President can show some real leadership here by a 412 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: pushing Speaker Pelosi to abandon the far left of fringe 413 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: of the party and come to the center and really 414 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,479 Speaker 1: focus on core infrastructure as opposed to the Green New 415 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: Deal or some of these other social spending priorities of 416 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 1: the of the of the Democratic Party. Congressman, always appreciate 417 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: your time. Let's catch up against Congressman Anti Baa of Kentucky. 418 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: Thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. 419 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern 420 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from 421 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 422 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 423 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 424 00:22:51,480 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg