1
00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,280
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game to us.

2
00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:07,600
Speaker 2: Proud red enough. They're running a game.

3
00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:16,680
Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, existing just glorious.

4
00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,120
Speaker 1: Extra cuss, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

5
00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,439
Speaker 1: effort four thousand percent of the time.

6
00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 4: How shut with that shop of mind and buddy, and

7
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,159
Speaker 4: that's why you.

8
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,040
Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most

9
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:37,839
Speaker 2: dangerous mountain of planet. Nobody picks them. Shut up, I.

10
00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:46,960
Speaker 4: Be wove. It's left to the wide eyed, drilled bibeus.

11
00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happened?

12
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,560
Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

13
00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,680
Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. I am BJ Cunningham, Michael

14
00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,160
Speaker 1: Leeboff illustrious host is out today. I am joined by

15
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,320
Speaker 1: our good friends Sam Ingram of Betting Expert. We're breaking

16
00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,680
Speaker 1: down all ten Premier League matches take a little gent around.

17
00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,680
Speaker 2: Europe and we're going to start with the headliner.

18
00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:17,199
Speaker 1: Sunday eleven thirty am Eastern Time, four thirty pm over

19
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:22,480
Speaker 1: in the UK, Liverpool hosts Chelsea in Liverpool's biggest game

20
00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,640
Speaker 1: so far this season. Their biggest tests so far. Liverpool

21
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,920
Speaker 1: is a minus one forty three home favorite Chelsea sitting

22
00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,600
Speaker 1: at plus three seventy five with the draw at three

23
00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 1: to one. Sam, this is an incredibly fascinating match because

24
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,840
Speaker 1: Chelsea has been playing very, very good under MORESCA lately.

25
00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,400
Speaker 1: We are coming off international break where a lot of

26
00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 1: players have been playing, traveling in from all.

27
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:44,120
Speaker 2: Over the world.

28
00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 1: We've been through this already once previously with Liverpool and

29
00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 1: obviously they have, you know, players from many different nations,

30
00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,520
Speaker 1: a lot coming from South South America, from Africa and

31
00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,760
Speaker 1: coming off the international break, they suffered their first defeat

32
00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,760
Speaker 1: of the season against Nottingham Forest. So could we see

33
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: some tired legs again potentially from Liverpool or do you

34
00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 1: think that this is just going to be another Arnie

35
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 1: Slot victory to make it seven of eight start the season.

36
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 4: I would say so, yeah. Tired minds, tired legs. Luckily

37
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,399
Speaker 4: for Liverpool, Chelsea will be feeling exactly the same. They've

38
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,359
Speaker 4: got a lot of top class players for playing for

39
00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:28,120
Speaker 4: a lot of nations in Europe and beyond. Liverpool obviously

40
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,040
Speaker 4: yet to play a team that finished in the top

41
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,120
Speaker 4: seven last season, so that is worth bearing in mind

42
00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:37,840
Speaker 4: when you start to analyze the data surrounding Liverpool start

43
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 4: Arnie Slot slots start to life on Merseyside. They opened

44
00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 4: around one point eight five ish in when they were

45
00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:48,520
Speaker 4: released on Bet three six five, so I think that

46
00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,639
Speaker 4: was the bet for me here. Now that they've they've

47
00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 4: shortened a little bit, so I'm not over the moon

48
00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 4: of that price. But if you look elsewhere, you can

49
00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,840
Speaker 4: get under three point twenty five goes at minus one away,

50
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,160
Speaker 4: so I think that's interesting. Also a little scary because

51
00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:08,080
Speaker 4: both sides have attacking ammunition in abundance. However, we've touched

52
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,919
Speaker 4: on it a few times. This Arny slot team is

53
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,400
Speaker 4: far more controlled than a Jurgen Klop team. There hasn't

54
00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,079
Speaker 4: been one Premier League game that has ventured over three

55
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 4: point five goals for Liverpool on the slot. It's all

56
00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,800
Speaker 4: very calm and considered in comparison to what we've grown

57
00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,280
Speaker 4: accustomed to at Anfield. And when you think of Chelsea,

58
00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,079
Speaker 4: I think you'll instantly think of there's six two away

59
00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,640
Speaker 4: and Wolves to three nil against west Ham or the

60
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,120
Speaker 4: four to two are home to Brighton not too long ago,

61
00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 4: and I think that's fair enough, but you've got to

62
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,120
Speaker 4: question those respective defenses they come up against their all

63
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,120
Speaker 4: three for me highly suspect, but Amfield away from home,

64
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 4: it's a different kind of test. Liverpool have conceded five

65
00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,080
Speaker 4: point one seven XGA from seven games and no side

66
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,440
Speaker 4: both less than that, although Chelsea there's seven point eight

67
00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,840
Speaker 4: eight XGA isn't far behind. So although it might be

68
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 4: the game of the weekend, I think I'm going to

69
00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,920
Speaker 4: throw a little water on it because I don't think

70
00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 4: we'll see the high score and affair that many people

71
00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,440
Speaker 4: will instantly think of when looking at IV lineup and

72
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,360
Speaker 4: the quality in forward areas, And like you said, if

73
00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,159
Speaker 4: you add to the fact of all these players being

74
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 4: away on it in the national duty and coming back

75
00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,360
Speaker 4: and having to get straight into this game, we might

76
00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:29,400
Speaker 4: see it to take a little while to take off

77
00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,520
Speaker 4: in the Premier League this weekend. So under three point

78
00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,919
Speaker 4: twenty five at minus one oh eight, I thought that

79
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:35,960
Speaker 4: was a pretty good way in.

80
00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,560
Speaker 2: I agree. I'm going to be on three under three

81
00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,040
Speaker 2: and a half here. I think the tactical battle.

82
00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,119
Speaker 1: Is interesting here, Sam, I think you know who's actually

83
00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to control this match, because obviously

84
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:50,119
Speaker 1: Chelsea under MORESCA has controlled pretty much every single match

85
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 1: outside of the one against Manchester City earlier this season.

86
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,760
Speaker 1: They have held under fifty percent possession against West Ham

87
00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 1: in Brighton, but they were also leading by multiple goals

88
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:02,839
Speaker 1: at the end of the first half, so you would

89
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,640
Speaker 1: expect them to concede possession play a little bit more defensive.

90
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,920
Speaker 2: Liverpool, their defensive setup is very similar to what Nottingham

91
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,200
Speaker 2: Forests played against Chelsea.

92
00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,360
Speaker 1: They play a four to two four and actually Chelsea

93
00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,680
Speaker 1: plays the exact same formation defensively as well. And what

94
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 1: that does. What Chelsea likes to do a lot. They'll

95
00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:22,919
Speaker 1: set up in a four to two base to start,

96
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:24,720
Speaker 1: they'll bring the goalkeeper out and then once they get

97
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,159
Speaker 1: higher up the pitch, they'll move into a three two five.

98
00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,000
Speaker 1: But they utilize that four to two base to get

99
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,760
Speaker 1: their fullbacks high and have those easy outlet balls for

100
00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,640
Speaker 1: teams that will only press with two or three guys

101
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,760
Speaker 1: on the front line. But what Liverpool likes to do

102
00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,039
Speaker 1: with the front four is they like to curve and

103
00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:42,680
Speaker 1: make those angles and not allow those easy outlet balls.

104
00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,040
Speaker 1: So Chelsea's probably most likely going to have to try

105
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,640
Speaker 1: to play through the middle here, and Liverpool is much

106
00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,839
Speaker 1: better in terms of their ball winning in the middle

107
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,680
Speaker 1: of the pitch, so I think it's gonna be very

108
00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 1: difficult for Chelsea to actually find a way and actually

109
00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,680
Speaker 1: create chances Liverpool, though the control under slot has been

110
00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,560
Speaker 1: a main from a zero zero game state. They're only

111
00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,159
Speaker 1: allowing point four to three expect goals for ninety minutes.

112
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,640
Speaker 1: With a one goal lead, They're allowing point eight one

113
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,840
Speaker 1: expected goals for ninety minutes. So I think what's fascinating

114
00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,719
Speaker 1: is does Liverpool because you know, the one big game

115
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 1: that they had sam was against Manchester United, right, and

116
00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,960
Speaker 1: how did they create most of their chances. They sat

117
00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,719
Speaker 1: in that mid block, they forced high turnovers off of that,

118
00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: and they got those quick counter attacking opportunities and they punished.

119
00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,240
Speaker 2: United over and over with that. They could do the

120
00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,240
Speaker 2: same here against Chelsea, who's gonna want to build out

121
00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 2: of the back. So that does give Liverpool a little

122
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,440
Speaker 2: bit of an advantage. But I'm with you. Three and

123
00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:37,080
Speaker 2: a half is high.

124
00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,839
Speaker 1: I mean, no, liver Not only has no Liverpool game

125
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,760
Speaker 1: gone over three and a half goals, no Liverpool match

126
00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,880
Speaker 1: has had over three point one expected goals created in it.

127
00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,720
Speaker 1: So I think this total is a touch high. I

128
00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,480
Speaker 1: have three point zero six goals projected for it, so

129
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,480
Speaker 1: anything under three and a half at minus one thirty

130
00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:58,360
Speaker 1: is good enough for me. But yeah, I think it's

131
00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,920
Speaker 1: gonna be interesting to see who controls this match from

132
00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:06,359
Speaker 1: the start. All right, let's move on to the opening

133
00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,200
Speaker 1: game out of the international break seven thirty am Eastern

134
00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,080
Speaker 1: Time over in the United States, Tottenham and West Ham

135
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,480
Speaker 1: meeting in a London derby. Tottenham is sitting at a

136
00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,880
Speaker 1: minus two hundred, home favorite West Ham sitting at plus

137
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 1: four seventy five with a draw at four to one.

138
00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,560
Speaker 1: I think we kind of see this game the same way, Sam.

139
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:26,480
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a little bit of chaos

140
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:28,400
Speaker 1: here out of the international break. Even though you know,

141
00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: we typically talk about these games coming out of the international

142
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,040
Speaker 1: break being typically slow.

143
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 2: That's not really the case with these teams, is it.

144
00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,720
Speaker 4: I don't think so. And Tottenham a box office this season.

145
00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,760
Speaker 4: No team in the top half has lost more matches

146
00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,440
Speaker 4: than Spurs after seven games. They're averaging two goes to ninety,

147
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,760
Speaker 4: but they've also conceded eight in seven games. We've just

148
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,800
Speaker 4: seen them race to a lead against Brighton before capitulating

149
00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,600
Speaker 4: in the second half. So Spurs wiped the floor with

150
00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,560
Speaker 4: Man United away from home, and so, like I said, yeah,

151
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,360
Speaker 4: this is this is like Hollywood stuff, and going forward,

152
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,760
Speaker 4: they're brilliant at times, super dynamic across the front line.

153
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:10,040
Speaker 4: Got Brennan Johnson, he's morphed into prime Spurs Gareth Bale,

154
00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 4: He's scored in each of his last seven games. So

155
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,320
Speaker 4: there's goes in this bird side. I don't think anyone

156
00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,440
Speaker 4: can deny that. And here they come up against a

157
00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,280
Speaker 4: west hand team. There's quite similar in that respect. I

158
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 4: think like from a general overview, they're like somewhat top heavy,

159
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 4: better in the opponent's box than they are defending their own. Defensively,

160
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 4: very very suspect to start the season under Lopatwegi, and

161
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,080
Speaker 4: that Chelsea defensive performance was one of the worst I've

162
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 4: seen this season. I'm a broken record. I've said that

163
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,920
Speaker 4: a few times now on this podcast. Maybe the worst

164
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,400
Speaker 4: I've seen this season. So what happens when you get

165
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,000
Speaker 4: two sides willing to attack and hand the onus to

166
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,440
Speaker 4: the quality at the top end of the pitch. I

167
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,199
Speaker 4: think there should be goes. I don't think we really

168
00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 4: need to overthink it. West Ham put four past Ipswich

169
00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,280
Speaker 4: just before the break, which will do them the world

170
00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 4: of good. They needed that, and from the off actually

171
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,199
Speaker 4: in the game, I thought west Ham were really quite

172
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:06,080
Speaker 4: good against Ipswich. They were asserted, they attacked Ipswich with

173
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,640
Speaker 4: intent and that shone through and just how quickly they

174
00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 4: took the lead. It felt like the energy in that

175
00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,280
Speaker 4: dressing room for me was very much along the lines

176
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 4: of that there's no way we're going to not win

177
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,040
Speaker 4: this game today. They were really good value for that.

178
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,320
Speaker 4: For one, when they kept going and going and the

179
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,840
Speaker 4: caveat is it was Ipswich have got to bear that

180
00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,720
Speaker 4: in mind. But I think it would be more of

181
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:29,280
Speaker 4: the same that their suspect at the back. But going forward,

182
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,720
Speaker 4: Cudis boeen Antonio got on the gos per Quetta. He's

183
00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 4: probably a level above west Ham. And yeah, the bookmakers

184
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 4: agree that there might be goes. The go line sat

185
00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 4: at over three point five, under three point five, but

186
00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,760
Speaker 4: I think we can be somewhat confident that west Ham

187
00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,079
Speaker 4: does enough to contribute, so both teams to score and

188
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:50,680
Speaker 4: over two point five goals at minus one three seven.

189
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,480
Speaker 4: I think, like you said, that that's a selection we're

190
00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,040
Speaker 4: aligned on. We should see goes at the Tottenham Stadium.

191
00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, along those lines, I think it was

192
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,079
Speaker 1: kind of interesting to see how west Ham was creating

193
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,320
Speaker 1: their goals against Ipswich.

194
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,480
Speaker 2: Three of their goals came of the result of crosses.

195
00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,760
Speaker 2: And what was interesting about the Tottenham and Brighton match

196
00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,880
Speaker 2: is so Tottenham's the most aggressive.

197
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,079
Speaker 1: Pressing team in the Premier League. They have the lowest

198
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:23,480
Speaker 1: passes for defensive action. They're forcing the most dangerous possession

199
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,959
Speaker 1: loss for their opponents so far. But doing that, if

200
00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 1: you can beat the first line of pressure because they're

201
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 1: going man to man, Brighton essentially just said all right, well,

202
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 1: if we're going to go one v one across all

203
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,360
Speaker 1: four of guys across their back line, like I like

204
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 1: the ruder Matoma, like that type of matchup against your

205
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,600
Speaker 1: opposing fullbacks. And they did that and they punished tot

206
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,760
Speaker 1: and they punished Tottenham in the second half by doing so.

207
00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,840
Speaker 1: So like you mentioned, if you're getting Bowen, Kudus and

208
00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,439
Speaker 1: Piketta into one v one's against Tottenham defenders, I like

209
00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,400
Speaker 1: west Ham's chances to get past them in terms of

210
00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,280
Speaker 1: dribbling and actually creating chances off acrosses. Because Totten them

211
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 1: allowed two goals off of crosses against Brighton, So I

212
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 1: think that's west Ham's method to scoring here. Obviously they

213
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,680
Speaker 1: are a team that's trying to control matches more and

214
00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,400
Speaker 1: trying to build out of the back. They're very vulnerable

215
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,840
Speaker 1: in terms of turning that possession over and giving Tottenham

216
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,640
Speaker 1: those easy transition opportunities. That's how Tottenham scored their first

217
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,640
Speaker 1: goal against Brighton. And like you said, west Ham's just

218
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:26,240
Speaker 1: an horrid defensive team. So I'm with you, same exact selection,

219
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 1: both teams to score over two and a half. If

220
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: you can get that under minus one point fifty, I

221
00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,520
Speaker 1: think there is a lot of value on that. All right,

222
00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:39,720
Speaker 1: let's move on to the ten am Eastern time window.

223
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,280
Speaker 1: You know what, Michael's not here, Sam, Let's talk Everton

224
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:49,839
Speaker 1: Ipswitch hosting Everton Ipswitch is a favorite plus one thirty

225
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,320
Speaker 1: seven ever since sitting at two to one with the

226
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,040
Speaker 1: draw at plus two thirty.

227
00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:55,800
Speaker 2: I'll do my.

228
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,560
Speaker 1: Song and dance and I'll do my rants. But this

229
00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,480
Speaker 1: seems like a slam Everton spot here.

230
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I thought you might have said that, and you

231
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,400
Speaker 4: mentioned you mentioned it there. It's the dynamic of this

232
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,000
Speaker 4: game that like really grabs me. Ipswich are favorites to

233
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 4: win in ninety minutes for the first time in the

234
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,839
Speaker 4: Premier League this season. They're not going to arrive on

235
00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 4: Saturday against a big, big Premier League team where they'll

236
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 4: need to like sit in, work hard out of possession.

237
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,120
Speaker 4: They'll feel like they can really get at this Everton side,

238
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,679
Speaker 4: and so do the bookmakers obviously by the pricing. But

239
00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,200
Speaker 4: we can also be sure that Everton arrive at Portman

240
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 4: Road and they've been performing well of like you think

241
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,840
Speaker 4: they'd arrive, and they'd really fancy their chances here to

242
00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,920
Speaker 4: get three points. They're three games unbeaten. I would say

243
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 4: they're unlucky to be on just the five points. The

244
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:50,400
Speaker 4: underlying data suggests that they're running out around five expected points,

245
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,800
Speaker 4: but I do think they're a little bit unlucky. We've

246
00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,160
Speaker 4: seen a couple second half capitulations as well against Bournemouth

247
00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,680
Speaker 4: and Villa where they were in the lead, so we've

248
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,920
Speaker 4: know they've got that in their locker too. So what

249
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 4: I've ended up on is over two point five goals

250
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 4: at minus one one four. I like that, and I

251
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,960
Speaker 4: also like the Everton plus zero point two five Asian handicap,

252
00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:14,839
Speaker 4: but I've sided with goals because I do like Ipswich

253
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,520
Speaker 4: at portmand Road for goals and I think If Ipswich

254
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,520
Speaker 4: really go for it like they have done over the

255
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 4: last couple of seasons, then they're going to make Everton flustered.

256
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,480
Speaker 4: I'm sure of that. They just need to be brave

257
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 4: in possession, which is easier said than done in the

258
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:28,559
Speaker 4: Premier League.

259
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:29,280
Speaker 2: They need to.

260
00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,000
Speaker 4: Commit bodies forward and pray on any loose change from

261
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:36,199
Speaker 4: that Everton back line. But after all, Everton have conceded

262
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 4: twelve point zero two XGA from seven games. Ipswich tops

263
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 4: that with fifteen point seven XG up to have them

264
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,679
Speaker 4: as the worst team in this metric in the Premier

265
00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,320
Speaker 4: League this season. And the reason we can get an

266
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,560
Speaker 4: over two point five goal line is because of the

267
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 4: lowly XG at the other end. But luckily football's obviously

268
00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,240
Speaker 4: not played on a spreadsheet, and I'm going to go

269
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,960
Speaker 4: against those no but in four areas at decent enough

270
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 4: price because something has to give too defensively, really suspect

271
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 4: teams and two teams are not so good going forward,

272
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,080
Speaker 4: So over two point five goes and minus one one

273
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 4: four that's why I bend it up.

274
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,600
Speaker 1: Well, if you've been listened to this podcast long enough,

275
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,120
Speaker 1: you'll know that me and Michael will be on Everton here.

276
00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:22,840
Speaker 1: I don't understand why Everton is an underdog here because

277
00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 1: you mentioned if Switch has the worst underlying metrics of

278
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:31,280
Speaker 1: anybody so far. And defensively, Sam, I don't really know

279
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,600
Speaker 1: what the plan is because in the Championship they were

280
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 1: a high pressing team, although they did play mid blocks

281
00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 1: in certain instances and in certain matches, but right now

282
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 1: they're not a intense pressing team. They're seventeenth and passed

283
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 1: per defensive action. They're trying to play a four to

284
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 1: two four mid block, but their opponents have their dead

285
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,280
Speaker 1: last and build up completion percentage allowed, so opponents are

286
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,600
Speaker 1: just playing right through them. And I don't really understand

287
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 1: what the plane. If you watch that west Ham match,

288
00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 1: they were countless times I know west Ham scored three

289
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 1: goals off the result of crosses. There were countless times

290
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,680
Speaker 1: that west Ham was just dribbling right up the middle

291
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,320
Speaker 1: of the pitch against them. So and when you face Everton,

292
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 1: well you've got to be able to defend crosses. So

293
00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 1: Everton obviously that's how they play. They like to play

294
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,680
Speaker 1: very direct. They like the people all out wide and

295
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,280
Speaker 1: they like des sending crosses over and over and over again.

296
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:26,880
Speaker 2: Everton.

297
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 1: I think in this type of match, if if Switch

298
00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:32,160
Speaker 1: is like you said, they're going to be at home

299
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 1: and they're going to think they can actually control the match.

300
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 1: They haven't held over fifty percent possession in any match

301
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 1: this season. I would bet that they actually do that

302
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:43,720
Speaker 1: in this one. Everton is forcing opponents into losing possession

303
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 1: in dangerous areas at the third highest rate in the

304
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 1: Mere League. From their high block. They are very very

305
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: good and very difficult to play through. Where they've struggled

306
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,240
Speaker 1: is they can't defend crosses to save their lives. People

307
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 1: have just been getting the ball wide and just swinging

308
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 1: crosses and over and over against them. I'm not sure

309
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: if Switch is really the team to be able to

310
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,960
Speaker 1: exploit that. And you mentioned the offensive numbers five expected

311
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 1: goals and seven matches, Well, Liam dellapp has scored four

312
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 1: goals off of one point two expected So the best

313
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,920
Speaker 1: striker in their best attacking option hasn't really been has

314
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 1: been overperforming pretty drastically. So I love Everton here. I

315
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 1: think this is a slam spot in Everton. I think

316
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: they should be favored here on the road. And when

317
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 1: we talk Everton, we have to talk set pieces. Well,

318
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,760
Speaker 1: if switch is fourteenth, the next cheap per set piece allowed.

319
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 1: So I think it's a great spot here for Everton.

320
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 1: I like them on the money line two to one,

321
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 1: but drown o Bett at plus one fifteen protecting myself

322
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 1: against some type of collapse, I think is a really

323
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,400
Speaker 1: good bet and one of the best on the board

324
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 1: this weekend. All right, let's move on to you know what,

325
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 1: Let's move on to one of my super bowls every

326
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 1: single year, Manchester United taking on Brentford. Manchester United is

327
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: a minus one forty three home favorite. Brentford's sitting at

328
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 1: plus three fifty with the draw at p plus three twenty.

329
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,640
Speaker 1: I said, this is one of the say I'm this

330
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 1: is one of the matches that we love to bet

331
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:13,239
Speaker 1: Brentford in every single year. I'll still say this to

332
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,159
Speaker 1: my One of the f from this podcast. One of

333
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,640
Speaker 1: the more greatest days that I've felt is when Brentford

334
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,080
Speaker 1: hammered United for nothing. I think it was the beginning

335
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty two season. I want to say

336
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,400
Speaker 1: I was twenty twenty two. That game still reigns.

337
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 2: In my mind.

338
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,560
Speaker 1: It was one of the more great games that we've

339
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:37,160
Speaker 1: had on this podcast. But you know Brentford have been

340
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,359
Speaker 1: I know the results don't show it, but Brentford have

341
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 1: been a Thornton Manchester United side over the years. Now.

342
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,240
Speaker 1: I like the way you're going with this match, because

343
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 1: well the Brentford matches have just been crazy so far.

344
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 1: I mean we had eight goals against Wolves before the

345
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 1: international breaks, so I see you're expecting goals in this one. Yeah.

346
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,880
Speaker 4: So this was actually one of free bets I put

347
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,920
Speaker 4: forward on the batter X to put podcasts out of

348
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 4: the whole European schedule. So this is one that I

349
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 4: really like. And I've picked out a quote which I

350
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,200
Speaker 4: mentioned on that podcast. Thomas Franks said after the Wolves game.

351
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,120
Speaker 4: In general, we want to get forward as quickly as possible.

352
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,120
Speaker 4: We want to work it on the side and put

353
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 4: crosses into the box. And if you look at Nathan

354
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 4: Collins's opening go in the second minute versus Wolves, he

355
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,440
Speaker 4: kind of stepped out of defense forward with the ball

356
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,159
Speaker 4: from his usual position, popped it off to a midfielder,

357
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 4: just carried on into the six yard box and he

358
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,199
Speaker 4: had an easy header from closed range. And it's that

359
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 4: movement from Nathan Collins that kind of shines a spotlight

360
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 4: on exactly what Thomas Frank is asking for from this

361
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 4: Brentford side set. Vanderbergh did similar throughout the other central

362
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,479
Speaker 4: defender and it kind of pulls players towards them and

363
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,400
Speaker 4: it leaves others in midfield unoccupied. And I feel that's

364
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 4: going to cause United all sorts of problems on the weekend.

365
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 4: And this is a United side which hasn't scored in

366
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 4: the past three Premier League games and now we've United

367
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 4: that home and with the expectation on them to win

368
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 4: this game, and I really struggle to see how they

369
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 4: don't score. Like Eric ten Hawk's job is on the

370
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 4: line here, they really need a result. If they blank

371
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 4: in this game against Brentford, I'll be highly surprised. And yeah,

372
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 4: I just feel like if Brentford make the opportunities, make

373
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 4: the most of their opportunities in transition and put that

374
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,679
Speaker 4: United defensive unit on the spin and running towards their

375
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 4: own goal, then I'd really expect them to profit too.

376
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 4: And if you look at the the game before the

377
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,880
Speaker 4: international break, Brentford's scored five goals in one game. Obviously,

378
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 4: that's that's pretty impressive, and that's as many goals as

379
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,639
Speaker 4: United have scored or season, which is somewhat amusing. But

380
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 4: United have been underperforming their XG by six point one

381
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 4: one XG. They've scored five from eleven point one one XG,

382
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 4: so that should revert at some point. And if you

383
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 4: look at Mark Flecken and the Brentford go he's made

384
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 4: the most saves of any go in the Premier League

385
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 4: this season, joined with Leicester City's Hermanson and thirty free saves.

386
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 4: So perhaps this is the week for United to find

387
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 4: their shoot and boots or come close to scoring a

388
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 4: couple of goals at least. So yeah, I've gone for

389
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 4: both teams to score an over two point five goals

390
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 4: at minus one twenty.

391
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 2: I like that. I will be on Brentford the prices

392
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 2: come down here.

393
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 1: I did grab a Brentford plus one, but I still

394
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: don't like them plus half a goal plus one twenty.

395
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 2: Five or better.

396
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 1: Sam, I have a stat for you, and this stat

397
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: has reigned in my mind for a long time. The

398
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 1: last time these two teams met, it was at Brentford.

399
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 1: To be fair to United, but it was a one

400
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 1: to one draw. Brentford out created a United three point

401
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 1: two expected goals two point six. They had seventy seven

402
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 1: touches in United's penalty area. That is a Premier League

403
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 1: record for a match that didn't involve a red card.

404
00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 2: That is insane.

405
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 1: And we know that, we know all United's defense is improved,

406
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 1: right Like, I'm not going to sit here and say

407
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: that's going to be that bad again. But in any case,

408
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 1: this should be a match right where United says, you

409
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 1: know what, we're the favorites and we should start to

410
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 1: press Brentford because they have obviously struggled in terms of

411
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: trying to build out of the back more often.

412
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: They're conceding the most.

413
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: High turnovers of anybody in the Premier League and that

414
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: is definitely a concern. But when Brentford wants to and

415
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 1: they want to play direct, they're going to be able

416
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 1: to punish United here. And what happened in that match

417
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: against United is United was pressing with on the air

418
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 1: of their attackers. Their fullbacks didn't come up and ate

419
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 1: the press, and Brentford just repeatedly, over and over again,

420
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: was just doing outlit balls out to the full back

421
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 1: and they consistently got two v ones out wide and

422
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: just send in cross after cross after cross. Brentford has

423
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: completed the most crosses of anybody in the Premier League

424
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: into the penalty area. United is fifteenth defensively in defending

425
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 1: crosses right now. That will give Brentford a big edge.

426
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: Not only that, Brentford scored a goal off a set piece.

427
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: Obviously this season.

428
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 1: They've gotten a little bit of a slower start in

429
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: terms of their set piece routines, but they've consistently been

430
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 1: one of the best set piece teams in the Premier League.

431
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: And they get their set piece taker mithaas Jansen back

432
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 1: from injury for this game, which is massive for them

433
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: because if you watch them the last few games, some

434
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: of their set piece takers have not been doing a

435
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: great job of delivering the right balls. United is seventeenth

436
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: an x G per set piece allowed. They've been doing

437
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: a terrible job of defending him. So I think this

438
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: is a great spot here Brentford. I love your selection

439
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: as well. I think we're gonna see a lot of

440
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: goals in this one. Some injury concerns for United as

441
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 1: well in this one. To keep on a lookout for.

442
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: Garnatcho Manil are both questionable for this match. Masarawi, McGuire

443
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: Shaw are all most likely going to miss it, so

444
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 1: some injury concerns there for United. If all those guys

445
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: don't play, suddenly you're without your starting right back, and

446
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 1: then you know, things become a little bit more difficult

447
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: when you're trying to defend in wide areas. So I

448
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: love Brentford here, one of my super bowls every year,

449
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: and I'll leave you with this, Sam. Brentford has played

450
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: United six times since being promoted to the Premier League.

451
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: Total expected goals over those cumulative over those six meetings

452
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 1: Brentford nine point two, United eight point three. But Brentford's

453
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: only won one match. So I love the be's here.

454
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: We'll go plus a half at plus one twenty five.

455
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: And if they continue to keep scoring inside the first two,

456
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 1: two or three minutes, how about Brentford first ten minutes

457
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 1: money line nine to one as well, which definitely could happen.

458
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: Because what I found interesting, Sam, I read something that

459
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: Brentford treat kickoffs like set pieces, so they practice them

460
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: and they routinely they drill them into their players over

461
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: and over again, and it's completely paid off four straight

462
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 1: times to begin.

463
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 2: They basically like to overload wide areas.

464
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: They'll send long balls up there and like you saw

465
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: Nathaniel Collins like it's a set piece. We'll venture himself

466
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: into the box and they'll try to find those headers.

467
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: So I love Brentford, you know, no surprise that they

468
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: have a former gambler as their owner. They're trying to

469
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: get every edge possible in this game. But but yes,

470
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: both selections I think have a great shot of winning.

471
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: And you know it's always good fading ten hog, which

472
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: I did see Sam that if United blank against Brentford

473
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: and west Ham their next two matches, that basically he's gone.

474
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens.

475
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 4: Is the west Ham game Trafford or is it away

476
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 4: from them? It's at west Ham, So yeah, he's in

477
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 4: a real tricky spot. So I would not be surprised

478
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 4: if they go to west Ham and lose. And yeah,

479
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 4: they might well come and stuck against Brentford here on

480
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: the weekend. So yeah, I told you one. But no,

481
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 4: Inten will probably win them both and then he'll guarantee

482
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 4: him in another six months in the job.

483
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: So and what's funny is they they also have Ferbache

484
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: in the Europa League.

485
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: Former Manchester United man Jose Mourinho can can.

486
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: Put the final acts in him maybe on Thursday. That'd

487
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: been pretty poetic if they decide to ax him after

488
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: that in Turkey. All right, let's move on to Fulham

489
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: in Aston Villa. Fulham big surprises so far in the

490
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: Premier Like they're sitting at plus one forty five, Aston

491
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: Villa sitting up plus one eighty with the draw at

492
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: plus two fifty. I think we're kind of in the

493
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: same vein here, Sam, where listen Fall has been amazing

494
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 1: so far, They've been really good. They've been really good

495
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 1: at Craven Cottage, but should should they be a home

496
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: favorite here against Aston Villa?

497
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 4: I was gutted, to be honest, bj Souse. I thought

498
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 4: there was a chance that Villa might be favorites here.

499
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 4: I thought we might be able to sneak like a

500
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 4: healthy looking zero point zero ation line or maybe even

501
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 4: some a plus handicap. But it's very much gone the

502
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 4: other way. So I think that opens a bit of

503
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 4: value on Villa, something I'm not really tented in, but

504
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 4: I think others might be. So that Aston Villa price

505
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 4: might shorten and it might present an opportunity on Fulham

506
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 4: and it's a fallen team on very much on board

507
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 4: with this season. That performance before the break at Manchester

508
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 4: City is Yeah, it's really got me going. Really, I

509
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,479
Speaker 4: love that performance. They could have won the game. They

510
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 4: should have left the a had with something and you

511
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,959
Speaker 4: know what, Adam Troy probably should have scored a hat

512
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 4: trick or a brace at least. Fulham created so many

513
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 4: chances against City after recovering the ball in transition it

514
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 4: will be triure Pereira. They were simply instructed just to

515
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 4: sprint without the ball as fast as they could towards

516
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 4: Cities goals him and as two to launch a counter

517
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 4: attack and put Cities back line and the real pressure.

518
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 4: And if they keep doing that, that's going to cause

519
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 4: any Premier League side real problems. Trialy is so fast,

520
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 4: but the rest of them are no slouches either. And

521
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 4: one thing I have to mention as well, by the way,

522
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 4: is Rah him and as his back heeled assist if

523
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 4: you remember it, and I thought that was really really

524
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 4: impressive if you've not seen it and go have a

525
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 4: look and can see the level of confidence he's playing

526
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 4: at the level of confidence that just coursing through his

527
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: veins right now. I'm such a big fan of his

528
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 4: and I'm mindful of brought him up on every podcast

529
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,479
Speaker 4: we've had in the past four weeks. But yeah, go

530
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 4: and watch that. But yeah, looking at the value here,

531
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 4: it's on Fullham, Fullham zero point zero, it's on Villa. Sorry,

532
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 4: but Fullham zero point zero is at minus one twenty.

533
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 4: It's not terrible, but I'd wait a bit maybe to

534
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 4: see if we can get any more juice out of that.

535
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: I've seen over twenty six point five match shots is

536
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 4: somewhat inviting. At minus one ten. Fulham home matches stand

537
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 4: at twenty eight thirty two thirty eight shots so far

538
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 4: and they've just registered eleven shots out that et he

539
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 4: had in a game involving thirty one at ten. So

540
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 4: this thing could turn out to be quite end to

541
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 4: end and Fulham look blister on the counter and in transition,

542
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 4: and we know Villa can certainly play the host at

543
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 4: their own game too. What I like the look of

544
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 4: is if you look at Fulham versus Man City is

545
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 4: a matchup. City obviously play with quite a high line

546
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 4: that sometimes don't even play with the line they play

547
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 4: with au tem outfield players in and the opponent's half.

548
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 4: And what Villa will do they will employ a high line,

549
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 4: so what a Dama Triory especially and the likes of

550
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 4: Alex will be need is they need a bit of

551
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 4: space in behind, and I think Fulham might just do

552
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 4: exactly what they did at City, get their players to

553
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 4: sprint as fast as they can in transition and on

554
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 4: the counter and really trouble that space in behind the

555
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 4: Villa high line. So I also like a Damatriory one

556
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 4: shot on target and minus one twenty. He would have

557
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 4: been thinking about those misses all International break, and that

558
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 4: Villa high line will resemble the kind of space he

559
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 4: had a lot of joy with last week. So yeah,

560
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: what I've ended up on, I've ended up on the bets.

561
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: I'll give you a for there, but they're all leans.

562
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 4: I would just suggest to maybe by your time and

563
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 4: see where that Fulham price goes.

564
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you.

565
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 1: I think the values here on Villa, but I can't

566
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: do it. The lines come down a little bit.

567
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: You know. The Fulham was plus one thirty five.

568
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: Now we're sitting a plus one forty five, so we're

569
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 1: getting closer to it being.

570
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: A straight pick them.

571
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: The problem with Villa is is the Champions League obligations

572
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: that they have against Bologna coming up this week and

573
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: their home road splits are shockingly bad over the since

574
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: Uniamory has gotten there and Fulham on the flip side

575
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: of it is so good at Craven Cottage and then

576
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: away from home Historically under Silva has been pretty pretty bad.

577
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: So with those home road splits, I really can't. I

578
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: can't muster up to do it on Villa, but yeah,

579
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: I may look at some of the some of the

580
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: props there and the angles on Fulham because you're right,

581
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: Villa's going to play that high line. We know that

582
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: Fulham has the transition ability to play off that high

583
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: line and create a lot of chances off.

584
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 3: Shout out to our Action Network colleague Sean Zarillo, who

585
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 3: had another great year in baseball, finishing the MLB regular

586
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 3: season up more than twenty five units. And with Action Pro,

587
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: you get instant notifications every time Zarillo or any of

588
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: our Action experts make a pick in the Action app.

589
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 3: Just visit actionnetwork dot com slash Pro and use the

590
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 3: promo code October for fifteen percent off an Action Pro subscription.

591
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: That's fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot com slash Pro

592
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: with the promo code October and be sure to check

593
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: out Sean every week talking MLB playoffs on the Payoff

594
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: Pitch podcast.

595
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to another fun one that

596
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: neither of us really have a bet on. It's Newcastle

597
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: and Brighton. Newcastle is a minus one on six home favorite,

598
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: Brighton sitting at plus two to sixty with the draw

599
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five. I mean, listen, this is

600
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: Brighton is playing. I don't want to use the word,

601
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: but that high line. They're playing against certain teams of

602
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 1: suicidal and don't I don't know how, I don't know

603
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: how sustainable it is.

604
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: I'll put it that way.

605
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: We've seen Uniyamori try it over and over again, and

606
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: there are certain instances against certain teams that will just

607
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: absolutely punishment punish it. Newcastle is one of those teams

608
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: that can really punish that high line.

609
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: Now, the problem is Newcastle.

610
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: Is also dealing with a lot of injuries, so it

611
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: will be very dependent on who is actually available for

612
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: Newcastle in this game.

613
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: So for me, I have nothing on this.

614
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: You know, over three at minus one twenty was kind

615
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 1: of interesting for a little bit, but I need I

616
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: need e Shak to play because I think you'll agree

617
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: with Sam that this This Newcastle team without a striker

618
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: just doesn't look just doesn't look good.

619
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got one sentence in my notes in front

620
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 4: of me, and it's saying unwilling. Sobat goes in a

621
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 4: new Castle game earlier in the week when we don't

622
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 4: really know what we're working with up top. Is he's

623
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 4: act fit? Will Gordon lead the line? There's a big

624
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:13,959
Speaker 4: difference between those two possibilities. Newcastle have scored three goals

625
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 4: in the four games since he's act picked up a knock.

626
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: He played in one of those games, but I know

627
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 4: he was on some kind of pay medication for his toe.

628
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 4: It's not ideal. So yeah, they've scored three goals in

629
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: the last four one of those games against league to

630
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: outfit FC Wimbledon, So you know, not exactly firing across

631
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 4: the front line. And it's because he's up and not around,

632
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 4: and it's because they don't have another fully fit striker.

633
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 4: Wilson's out too. So yeah, like UBJ, I would love

634
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 4: goals in this normally, but yeah, I'm just not sold,

635
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 4: so I'll probably pass on this one.

636
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the final game of

637
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: the ten am Eastern time window. A relegation six pointers,

638
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: Southampton taking on Lester Southamptons plus one thirty home favorite

639
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: Lester sitting up two to one the draw of plus

640
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: two to fifty. I'm gonna bet Southampton here. I like

641
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: them Toronto bet at minus one forty. And I know

642
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: that the perception of them around most of the Premier

643
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: League is that they are the worst team and that

644
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: they can't seem to get things right under Russell Martin.

645
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: But I think if we take what happened in the

646
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: match against Ipswich, I think you'll see that Southampton under

647
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: Russell Martin, with their buildup can work against certain teams. Now,

648
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: his method is not sustainable for the Premier League with

649
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: how good teams are at pressing. It's never going to

650
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: work against the elite teams, right, But against some of

651
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: these teams, against the in the bottom of the table,

652
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: I think it has a decent chance of working. I

653
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: mean Southampton has the second best build up completion percentage

654
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: so far this season. Now, they can't do anything within

655
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: the final third, but that match against Ipswich, they did

656
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 1: create two point four expected goals off of eleven shots.

657
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: And if you look at what's funny enough, Sam is

658
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: these two teams have played the exact two same opponents

659
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: in their last two matches Arsenal and Bournemouth. Lester conceded

660
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 1: six and a half expected goals against those two teams.

661
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: Southampton conceded three point one. So I sigh, because you know,

662
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: backing Southampton right now is you know, very taboo in

663
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: terms of you know how good they are. And you'll

664
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: know this too, is that last year in the Championship

665
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: Lester hammered Southampton in both meetings. I do think that

666
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: this lesser defense is quite terrible considering what they've done lately.

667
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: Their offense has only created over one expected goal in

668
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: one match this season, So if you're looking for a

669
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 1: chance to buy low on Southampton, I think this is

670
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: potentially the spot. And also these are the two worst

671
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: set piece defenses in the Premier League. Southampton offensively is

672
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 1: actually second and next two per set piece, which I

673
00:34:58,280 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: was found kind of shocking when I was going through this.

674
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: So I think you'll give them there at home they

675
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: have that set piece advantage. I think they should be

676
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: able to build up through there. I like dron Obet

677
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: as the protection here instead of backing them on the

678
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 1: on the money line. So I like Southampton drono bet

679
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: minus one forty. But I'm sure you're gonna tell me

680
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 1: that I'm I'm a little crazy.

681
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 4: You are a little crazy, but that's fine. I don't

682
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 4: think you'll be siding with Southampton dronto bet too many

683
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 4: times a season, but I can see why you're doing

684
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 4: it here. Just for me, I just struggle to back

685
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 4: Southampton right now to win a game or any variation

686
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 4: of a positive home result. Maybe until they show me

687
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 4: that they've, you know, can actually win a Premier League game.

688
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 4: That would be a really nice start for me to

689
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 4: want to get on side with them. And they have

690
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 4: well you mentioned Lester got joy against them last season

691
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 4: in the Championship five mil and four one. Things have

692
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 4: changed a little obviously morescu is no longer in charge

693
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 4: in Leicester. For me, I've passed on this game, but

694
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 4: my heart was saying goes over two point seventy five

695
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 4: around even money. But my head is telling me to

696
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 4: sit this one out as I'm just not overly convinced

697
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 4: as to what we're going to get from either team.

698
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 4: I think Southampton, well, we know what Southampton are going

699
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: to do. They're going to play out from the back,

700
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: keep the ball, and I think they have it in

701
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 4: them to do that successfully against this Leicester team at

702
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 4: least once, maybe twice. They've not scored twice in a

703
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 4: Premier League game yet this season, Leicester City have done

704
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 4: so twice, four to two against Arstonal and two to

705
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 4: two against Pallace. Yeah, so I think Southampton are going

706
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 4: to be successful to some degree, but I'm just not

707
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 4: convinced either way. So I'm going to sit this one out,

708
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 4: but I would lean towards goals.

709
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the twelve thirty pm

710
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: Eastern time kick off five thirty pm Eastern Time in

711
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: the UK, Arsenal traveling to Bournemouth. Arsenal's a minus one

712
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: fifty road favorite Bournemouth as a four to one home underdog.

713
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: With the draw at plus two to ninety, this line's

714
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 2: come down a little bit.

715
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: Arsenal was at minus one seventy five and then some

716
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: injury concerns have popped up for Arsenal and I think

717
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: that Sam the way to play this is to watch

718
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: these injury concerns. Arsenal has shock Tar in the Champions

719
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: League coming up, and then on the weekend they have

720
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,919
Speaker 1: a huge match against Liverpool. So as of right now,

721
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: Ode Guard is out, Ben White is questionable, Jerry and

722
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: Timbers questionable, kay Vertz is questionable, Socca is questionable. Party

723
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: is most likely gonna miss, Gabrielle Martinelli's most likely gonna miss.

724
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,879
Speaker 1: So my goodness, I mean the entire Arsenal's almost entire

725
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: team is potentially maybe gonna miss this match.

726
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, you have to bet Bournemouth

727
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 2: in this spot.

728
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fair enough. This is another game. Third on

729
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 4: the bomb stall. I'm actually going to pass. If you

730
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 4: take the top six Premier League sides out of the

731
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 4: equation this season, Brighton and Bournemouth lead the way with

732
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 4: touches in the opposition penalty area, which I'd love as

733
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 4: an Eroola enthusiast, and I'm not surprised that, and they're

734
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 4: going to need a few more of them on the

735
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 4: weekend to get anything from this Arsenal game. But that's

736
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 4: really not going to be easy. But surprisingly at this

737
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: stage of the season, it's Bournemouth which holds the unwanted

738
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 4: record of losing to nil more than any other team.

739
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 4: So I suppose the question is can Arsenal record like

740
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 4: another infamous shut out on the road and keep the

741
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 4: cherries at bay. I'm not too sure if they will,

742
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 4: so I'm not convinced that that minus one five to

743
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 4: two price around Arsenal's neck, especially now if you're telling

744
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 4: me that you know, like a third of their squad

745
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: are questionable. It's a price which I think people will

746
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 4: look at and including their parlays and their accumulators. But

747
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 4: it feels a bit trapp trappy to me. And equally,

748
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 4: I also wouldn't be ably surprised if Arsenal run out

749
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 4: winners here, making the plus zero point seventy five Asian

750
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 4: handicap on the hosts a little off put in two.

751
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 4: So again, it's a game which feels a bit trappy

752
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 4: and I really don't know what we're going to get,

753
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 4: especially if Arsenal were missing a few.

754
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll put it this way.

755
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 1: The one guy that I would out of that is

756
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: if soccer is out and he's not going to play

757
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: in this game, I think you have a bed barmouth

758
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 1: because if you've watched Arsenal, they are so dependent on

759
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: Bakayosaka and getting him the ball and having him create

760
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: everything to assists in a goal against Southampton again if

761
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 1: him and Averts are both out, I mean even Timber

762
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 1: and White being both out, they played Thomas Party at

763
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 1: right back. Then if he's out again, like it's like

764
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 1: now we're down to Tomy Austen who's coming back from

765
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: injury as well.

766
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 2: So it's just like it's very barren right now for Arsenal.

767
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 1: So just if I were playing this, I would keep

768
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 1: up to date on those injuries, if you know. I

769
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: would say, if if Soka and Heverts are out, I

770
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,439
Speaker 1: would definitely bet Bournemouth in the spot because I don't

771
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: think Arsenal has the attacking prowest to actually take advantage

772
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 1: of it without those two guys. Let's move on to

773
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 1: Sunday nine am Eastern Time kickoff, Wolves hosting Manchester City.

774
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: Wolves is a seven to one home underdog, Manchester City

775
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 1: sitting at minus three hundred with a draw at plus

776
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: five hundred. You know, I saw this game, Sam, and

777
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: I saw the line and I just kind of sighed

778
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: because I was like, I would have loved to get

779
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: Wolves maybe like at.

780
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 2: A plus two in this spot, but they didn't give

781
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 2: us that.

782
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 1: So I'm kind of in a limbo where I was

783
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: kind of looking at some of the props in this game, and.

784
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: Some of the Holland props are kind of interesting to me. Obviously,

785
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: he's really good. We all know that, right is quite good.

786
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: He's quite good.

787
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: But what I found interesting when I was digging deep

788
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 1: into him, he's actually getting way more production this season

789
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: than he has ever as a Manchester City in a

790
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: Manchester City shirt. Four point eight shots per ninety so

791
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 1: far this season three point one shots per ninety on target.

792
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: That's double what he was averaging last season. So Wolves

793
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: defensively shocking how bad they were against Brentford, just like

794
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 1: simple stuff like we've already mentioned, like simple crosses into

795
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 1: the box they conceded a goal with giving Ethan Pinnock,

796
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,320
Speaker 1: just like a completely freeheader off of a set piece.

797
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 1: Pep will know that he'll overload the middle, he'll get

798
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: his wingers and isolated into one v one situations, and

799
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 1: I think they're just gonna send crosses into Holland. So

800
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: there's two props they like for him. Multiple goals at

801
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: plus two sixty and then over three and a half

802
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,919
Speaker 1: shots on target at six to one. He's gone over

803
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: three and a half shots on target against west Ham

804
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: and against Brentford to similarly bad defensive teams to Wolves

805
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 1: and then five shots on targeting Arsenal when they had

806
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 1: ten men. So I think those props are a little

807
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 1: bit short considering how like shockingly bad Wolves defense has been.

808
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: I know that they've completely underperformed defensively, but let's be honest,

809
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: that positive aggression is not going to come against the

810
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: best offensive team in the Premier League.

811
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 2: So that's the way I would look at this match.

812
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 1: If you're somebody who's like, I don't know if I

813
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: want to lay minus one and a half with City

814
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 1: on the road in a spot where they have a

815
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: Champions League match coming up in the midweek against Sparta Prague.

816
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: So if Holland's in there, I think that he's just

817
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not you know, saying anything newsworthy here,

818
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: but that he's probably going to score a couple of goals.

819
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: So that's how I look in this one. Do you

820
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 2: see anything in this.

821
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 4: Match not really beat out? I'll probably agree with you. Yeah,

822
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 4: for us to take a props, obviously, Holland go would

823
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 4: be the way to go. Holland brace Wolves are the

824
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 4: only side to lose all of their home games in

825
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 4: the Premier League. The club has never overseen four consecutive

826
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 4: home defeats to begin a season, and now they welcome

827
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 4: Manchester City on the weekend, So that does not look good.

828
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 4: City have actually conceded the first goal in three or

829
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 4: four home games this season, but away from home, Guardiola's

830
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 4: men are yet to concede the first go I don't

831
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 4: really have anything here. But if you see this game

832
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 4: as obviously lots of players coming back from international break,

833
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 4: Wolves has just putting their worst performance of the season.

834
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 4: If you see this as Gary o'neils had this Wolves

835
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 4: team on the training pitch for the last two weeks, drilling,

836
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 4: you know, loads of different types of information into them,

837
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 4: they come here on the weekend as a winded animal.

838
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 4: If you think they can get a goal here at home,

839
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 4: like a few teams have done against City this season,

840
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 4: then maybe City to win and both teams to score

841
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,399
Speaker 4: up plus one sixty could be away in But again, look,

842
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 4: that's that's not my that's not my most favorite fancy weekend.

843
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 4: That's that's definitely probably a little bit more than a lean,

844
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 4: a little bit less than than a lean, should I say?

845
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 2: Yeah?

846
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: The interesting part here for Wolves is I don't think

847
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 1: they're gonna stack Gary on Neil.

848
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: I think they're smarter than that.

849
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: But this match and then on the weekend they have

850
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: Brighton and then after that the schedule gets pretty easy.

851
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: They go Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, west Ham, Ipswich

852
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 1: and lesser right up until Christmas. So I haven't seen

853
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: what Wolves price is to stay up right now in

854
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,439
Speaker 1: the futures market, but that may be something to look

855
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 1: at after they play both City and Brighton, if you

856
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 1: can get that at a decent price. I hope their

857
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: underlying metrics are quite terrible. They're a way more talented

858
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: team than the three promoted teams that have came up,

859
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,879
Speaker 1: so I think you'll see them get back on track here.

860
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: They've just had a really, really tough run in their

861
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,760
Speaker 1: schedule so far, so if you're looking to back Wolves,

862
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: I think that is maybe a potentially way to play

863
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 1: that in the futures market. And let's move on to

864
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,959
Speaker 1: our final match of the weekend. We get a Monday

865
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 1: night football. It's just great.

866
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 2: We love Monday night football.

867
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 1: Not even forrests taking on Crystal Palace, notingam Forrest is

868
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: sitting up plus one thirty, Palace sitting up two to

869
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 1: one the draw at plus two fifty. Kind of two

870
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: similar teams if we're being honest, notting Eam Forrest has

871
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 1: definitely been way more impressive than Crystal Palace so far

872
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 1: the season, although I do think Palace will get better.

873
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 2: As the season goes along. I'm still a believer in

874
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: Oliver Glossner. So I have nothing on this match.

875
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 1: I was potentially looking to play it under but that

876
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 1: has been justed pretty heavily, so I'm gonna pass on that.

877
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: But you you do have something for this match?

878
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, So only one Forest fixture has gone over two

879
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 4: point five goes this season, and that goes some way

880
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 4: to explain in why the bookmakers have set this as

881
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 4: a two point twenty five go line, the lowest in

882
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 4: the vision, and so I don't know if we should

883
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 4: see too many go and I just think overall, looking

884
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 4: at the international break, I think this is a concerning

885
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 4: spot for Forrest if you consider those who might be

886
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 4: missing or jaded from the break. Got Taywo A. He

887
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 4: was part of that Nigerian squad which was somewhat held

888
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 4: hostage at an airport in Libya not too long ago.

889
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 4: And elsewhere. And Forrest's other number nine, Chris Wood, he's

890
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 4: just played in Vanuatu, which is east of Australia. I

891
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:34,959
Speaker 4: think it's somewhere over there. Gibbs White's ankle injury picked

892
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 4: up against Chelsea before the break might rule him out here.

893
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 4: He's probably their best, most impactful player. And there's going

894
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,800
Speaker 4: to be no James Waard Prowse in the midfield against

895
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 4: Pallace as he's suspended from jumping on that runaway ball

896
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 4: with his hands. So it's going to be a different

897
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 4: looking Nottingham Forest team. And I've said it before this

898
00:46:56,840 --> 00:47:00,080
Speaker 4: this Pala side that they looked really they really. We

899
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 4: are looking for a result to kick start their season.

900
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,240
Speaker 4: And if we are along the same kind of thinking

901
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 4: as the bookmakers, if we think this will be a

902
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 4: low scoring game, then Palace might just edge it. It

903
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 4: might not, it might be a draw. It might be

904
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 4: Neil Neil so to get Palace on the plus zero

905
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 4: point two to five Asian handicap line. It's more of

906
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,240
Speaker 4: a leane than anything. Because I've been really impressed with Forrest.

907
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,800
Speaker 4: I'd probably rank them near enough to Fulham in terms

908
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 4: of teams that have really surprised. That impressed me this

909
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 4: season that those two are probably right up there so

910
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 4: more of a leane than anything. But if we get

911
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 4: a low scoring game, then that plus line might just

912
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,760
Speaker 4: do the job for Palace for sure.

913
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: All Right, let's you know what, Sam, I'm gonna kick

914
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 1: it right back to you. Let's first get to Sam's

915
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: bet from the championship and then I'll do my little

916
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 1: johns around around Europe.

917
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, so we're heading to whole of US assmble

918
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 4: and over two point seventy five goes at minus one

919
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,479
Speaker 4: oh five. This was an over for two point five line,

920
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 4: but that's moved a little annoyingly. The whole season really

921
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 4: kicked off away in Stoke at the end of September.

922
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 4: They scored three goals there and they locked in their

923
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 4: first victory. Score line since and including that game have

924
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 4: been three to one, four one, three to one, all wins,

925
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 4: and then a four mier loss to Norwich before the

926
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 4: international break. But even against Norwich that wasn't from the

927
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 4: one to try and there were sixteen hole shots in

928
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 4: that game to Norwich is nineteen. There was accumulated XG

929
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 4: of nearly six and if you look in a way

930
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 4: dressing room here. Sunderland have been excellent in spous this season,

931
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 4: but they have lost their last two away fixtures, conceding

932
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 4: one point eight nine xga to Watford and also one

933
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 4: point seventy nine xga to Plymouth Argo and that was

934
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 4: Rooney's first win. So Sunderland they'll be targeting all three

935
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 4: points here, but in the back of their mind they'll

936
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 4: also know there they are a little susceptible on the road.

937
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 4: Considering we need a well whole needs a response post

938
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 4: Norwich post that full note defeat, I think we can

939
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 4: expect them to be amongst the goals as well. And

940
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 4: this is a televised Sunday Championship fixture. I think they

941
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 4: might just put on a show for the cameras in Yorkshire.

942
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:18,839
Speaker 4: So over two point seventy five goals at minus one

943
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 4: oh five.

944
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: Funny story about Hull, Sam, I'll just say this really

945
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 1: quick go on and I was in England a long

946
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 1: long time ago. Some guy asked me where I was

947
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: from and I said I was from Iowa and he said, oh,

948
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 1: it's like Hull, there's nothing there and I had to

949
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:34,720
Speaker 1: have a child.

950
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, that's pretty it's kind of true.

951
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: All right, I'll move on here. I'll take a little

952
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: jaunt around Europe. Let's start in Germany.

953
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 1: High total on the board Hoffenheim Bochum over three and

954
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 1: a half goals at plus one oh five. Both of

955
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: these teams are well, they're horrible defensively. Hoffenheim is conceding

956
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 1: two point twenty five expect goals for ninety Bochum is

957
00:49:59,400 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 1: at two and a.

958
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 2: Half expected goals per ninety minutes allowed. Should be a

959
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 2: very up and down type match. Hoffenheim does like to

960
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 2: press high. They like to play in transition, which is

961
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 2: exactly how Bocum likes to play.

962
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: So, you know, typically when you get two teams that

963
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: like to play very direct, it usually ends up, actually

964
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: more often than not, in a high scoring type of fixture,

965
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 1: with both teams wanting to get out in the break.

966
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: So I like over three and a half goals there.

967
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: Juventus Lazio both teams to score no at minus one fifteen.

968
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: Juventus still has not conceded a non penalty goal in

969
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: Syria this season. They are incredible defensively, they're so awesome,

970
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 1: it's funny. We said this on the Champions League podcast.

971
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 2: Sam.

972
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: You know they're playing terrorism ball under allegory. They're not

973
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: really doing much different under Thiago Matta. Yes, they're they're

974
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 1: controlling more possession of building out of the back, but defensively,

975
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,320
Speaker 1: you can kill the man, but you can't kill the idea.

976
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 1: So Juventus conceding under half of the expected goal non

977
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: penalty expected goal for ninety minutes, so both team to score,

978
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 1: both team to score no at minus one fifteen. We

979
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: shouldn't be setting that low, that aligned that low for

980
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 1: these Juventus matches. And finally Barcelona Sevilla over three and

981
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:11,359
Speaker 1: a half at plus one oh five. Barcelona lost her

982
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: staggan in goal. Under hanse Flick, they are just playing

983
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 1: incredible offensive offensive football. The way they're able to overload

984
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,919
Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch, the way they're always able

985
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: to find numerical advantages, it's.

986
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 2: Incredible to watch.

987
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: But the flip the downside of that is is because

988
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 1: they have so many guys in the middle, and they're

989
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 1: committing so many guys in the attack, there's just easy

990
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: outlet balls out wide and it's very easy to play

991
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 1: against them, especially in counter attacking opportunities. So he is

992
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,799
Speaker 1: a team that's very good at getting the ball and

993
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 1: wide areas and sending crosses in So these Barcelona totals

994
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 1: I think are still a little bit too low given

995
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,720
Speaker 1: what they're doing under hanse Flick.

996
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 2: And Barcelona does have funny enough.

997
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: They have a huge match against hanse Flick's all team

998
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 1: Bayern Munch coming up in the Champions League in the week,

999
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 1: so that one should be a lot of fun. So

1000
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: that is my little jaunt around Europe. Now we'll move

1001
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 1: on to everybody's favorite segment, the underdog parlay. Not shocking,

1002
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:12,760
Speaker 1: but Michael's got Everton two to one. They should always

1003
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 1: be in there and in these type of situations. But

1004
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 1: I'll kick it to you first, what's your favorite underdog

1005
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: play of the weekend.

1006
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 4: I might be losing my marbles a little bit, but

1007
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 4: I've gone for a Dama triore anytime goal scorer not

1008
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 4: known for his goal scoring capabilities, I think is a

1009
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,240
Speaker 4: nice way of putting it, and that shone through against

1010
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 4: Manchester City before the break could have had a hat

1011
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 4: trick there registered one point two to nine XG from

1012
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 4: three attempts at the etty hat, but it feels like

1013
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 4: it was a bit more than that, to be honest.

1014
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 4: Triori doesn't feature for Spain, so he's had arrested in

1015
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 4: a national break in that respect, and you can bet

1016
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,400
Speaker 4: anything that he has been stewing on those misses for

1017
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 4: the past fortnight. Fulham will continue to do what they've

1018
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 4: been doing this season and Triore is pivotal to that.

1019
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 4: Alongside Alex will will be commit bodies forward quickly under

1020
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 4: instruction for that forward quartet to get on the states

1021
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 4: skates whenever the ball is turned over and to roffle

1022
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:11,480
Speaker 4: the feathers of their opposing retreating back line. So we

1023
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 4: should get chances and that Villa high line oppos the

1024
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 4: opportunity to attack that space, just like at Manchester City.

1025
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, at Dama Troy or anytime, go score it

1026
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 4: plus three seven to five.

1027
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 1: And I'll go with Brentford plus three to fifty against

1028
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: Manchester United, one.

1029
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 2: Of our favorite fixtures to bet.

1030
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 1: Every single year, Brentford has gone up against Manchester United

1031
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: six times since they've been promoted to the Premier League.

1032
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 1: They have cumulatively won the expected goals battle nine point

1033
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 1: two to eight point three over those six meetings, even

1034
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: though they have only won one match, and last time

1035
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 1: they faced United they completely hammered them three point two

1036
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 1: expected goals to point six and a one to one draw,

1037
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 1: seventy seven touches in United's penalty area. Obviously, United's defense

1038
00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 1: has gotten better this season, the press has gotten better.

1039
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 2: But even if they decide to go a.

1040
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,360
Speaker 1: Man and man and try to press Brentford, Brentford is

1041
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 1: really really good in getting guys into one v one

1042
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 1: situations against the opposing defenders, especially Brian and Buimo. If

1043
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 1: he is going to be playing in that half space

1044
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 1: role going up against the Standra Martinez, it's a pretty

1045
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 1: easy bet that I think he's going to burn him

1046
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 1: one a couple different times and get Brentford in those

1047
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: balls over the top because Brentford has the third best

1048
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:24,360
Speaker 1: long ball completion.

1049
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:25,320
Speaker 2: Percentage so far this season.

1050
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: So if Brentford decides to play direct, which I think

1051
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 1: they should, I think it gives him a great opportunity

1052
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 1: to pull off an upset against Manchester United. Let's move

1053
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,879
Speaker 1: on to our favorite bets of the Premier League. Sam,

1054
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 1: what's your favorite bet this weekend?

1055
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 4: Both teams have scored over two point five goals in

1056
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:43,720
Speaker 4: United v. Brentford at minus one twenty. I don't expect

1057
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 4: man United to make it for successive games where they

1058
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 4: failed to register a Premier League go We're entering into

1059
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 4: the realms of Eric ten Hag potentially losing his job

1060
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 4: due to underperformance, so I'm expecting some kind of response.

1061
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:01,799
Speaker 4: United have posted the biggest underperformance between scored five unexpected

1062
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 4: goes eleven point one XG in the Premier League this season,

1063
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 4: so they've been unlucky and it's something I think should

1064
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 4: revert soon against this Brentford side, who are instructed to

1065
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 4: get the ball forward and commit bodies like Fulham as

1066
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 4: quickly as possible, and make runs from our defense to

1067
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 4: outnumber opposition players and then flood the box with crosses.

1068
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 4: It just feels like a recipe for goals at Old Trafford,

1069
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 4: and it's worth noting that Brentford scored five goals against

1070
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 4: Wolves last time out, the same amount as United have

1071
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 4: managed all season.

1072
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Everton drawn no bet against Ipswich.

1073
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't understand why Ipswich is a favorite here at home.

1074
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 1: They have the worst underlying metrics of anybody really so far,

1075
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 1: created only five expected goals conceded fifteen. Both of those

1076
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 1: are dead last, and I'm not really sure what the

1077
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 1: plan is defensively for them because they were a high

1078
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 1: pressing team in the Championship, but now they're seventeenth and

1079
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 1: past per defensive action eighteenth and high turnovers and they

1080
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 1: are conceding the most box entries of anybody in the

1081
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 1: Premier League. So when you play Everton, you have to

1082
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 1: be able to defend crosses and you have to be

1083
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 1: able to defend set pieces, which are two things that

1084
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: Ipswich cannot do. They are twelve in terms of defending

1085
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: crosses into their penalty area and they conceded three goals

1086
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: as a result of crosses against west Ham and they're

1087
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 1: fourteenth in xt G per set piece allowed. And if

1088
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 1: they're going to try to build out of the back,

1089
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: which is what they want to do in these type

1090
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 1: of matches where they're the favorites, and they're at home

1091
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 1: against Everton's high block that is turning teams over in

1092
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:29,959
Speaker 1: dangerous areas at the third highest.

1093
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:30,720
Speaker 2: Rate in the Premier League.

1094
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:33,479
Speaker 1: This is just a nightmare matchup for them and one

1095
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 1: that I don't think they should be a favorite in.

1096
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: So I like Everton. John Obett at plus one fifteen.

1097
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:41,359
Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode. One to goal thank

1098
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: you all for listening, Thank you for Sam for joining

1099
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 1: me here. Me and Michael will be back for the

1100
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: Champions League. That'll be in your feed on Monday morning

1101
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 1: for match week three.

1102
00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 2: So thank you all for listening and we'll see you

1103
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: again next time.

1104
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1105
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1106
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler