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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday Conference Championship episode. We will break down the

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Speaker 1: lines for the AFC and NFC conference title games. We

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Speaker 1: will discuss our exec decision and ours Simon says, do

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Speaker 1: not fret. On Thursday. We will have the usual menu,

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Speaker 1: sharp calls, foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. Plus

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Speaker 1: we will get into some futures talk with the remaining teams.

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Speaker 1: The four remaining teams and their Super Bowl odds as

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Speaker 1: they stand right now, how do we want to play

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Speaker 1: those heading into Conference Championship weekend. Obviously, we're going to

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Speaker 1: believe there's some value there. You want to get ahead

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Speaker 1: of that. We're also going to have a lot of

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Speaker 1: conversations about hedging strategies. Before the season began, Simon and

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Speaker 1: I both gave out Super Bowl matchup plays. Simon actually

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Speaker 1: gave out a Super Bowl matchup with the winner. Both

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Speaker 1: of those were at very long odds. Both of those

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Speaker 1: bets from Simon and I are still alive. So we

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Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit about our hedging strategy

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Speaker 1: heading into this weekend. I would bet that a lot

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Speaker 1: of people have some kind of matchups in play that

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Speaker 1: certainly involved potentially the Bills the Eagles. The Bills are

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Eagles, so good opportunity to run

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Speaker 1: through some of the strategies on Thursday Live from Her

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Speaker 1: Tell Me John Home Studios. I'm joined as always by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike Capadre might beft professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon hunt at Also I'm in Chad.

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Speaker 2: Life is good sitting here my Tommy John sweatpants. My

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Speaker 2: Eagles team in the conference finals. Damn, Like Man Mitchell

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Speaker 2: saying before the show, you just there's a pep in

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Speaker 2: your step one of the sport you love. Your team

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Speaker 2: has one game away, one game away from super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's been a fun two days so far

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Speaker 2: since the Eagles won.

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Speaker 1: Listen, there's a pep in your step when your team

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Speaker 1: is a game away from the super Bowl. The way

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Speaker 1: you feel, the way Matt Mitchell feels. Matt Mitchell. If

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Speaker 1: people don't know Matt Mitchell, every year during the playoffs

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Speaker 1: promises his entire neighborhood free ice cream if the Bills

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Speaker 1: win a playoff game. So naturally, he spent yesterday going

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Speaker 1: to the grocery store in his entire bills get up

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Speaker 1: his bills, poncho. He sent us a picture and then

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Speaker 1: he buys pints of Ben and Jerry's and just passed

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Speaker 1: it around the neighborhood. It was minus twenty degrees in

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee yesterday. He made his son do it, and it

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Speaker 1: was lovely the way he sort of built some character

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Speaker 1: with his son walking around the neighborhood headter and not

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Speaker 1: Ice screaming. Now he's just got the entire neighborhood of

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Speaker 1: Packers fans screaming, go bills. You know what else? You

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Speaker 1: get a little pep in your step when you're moribund

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Speaker 1: historically crappy, bad decision making, poorly run franchise pulls the

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Speaker 1: hottest head coaching prospect of the past three years.

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Speaker 2: We got him, Jeed, We got him, got him, and.

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Speaker 1: He walks into the building and there's standing ovation from

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Speaker 1: all across Hallis Hall, Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams. This time

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Speaker 1: next year, we're probably gonna be talking about Caleb Williams

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Speaker 1: and Jayden Daniels in the NFC title game, and how

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Speaker 1: amazing it's going to be to see these guys playing

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Speaker 1: for the next decade against each other. Am I right?

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Speaker 2: I was so happy for you because that was we talked.

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Speaker 2: He felt like a months ago. Now that's how long

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Speaker 2: this playoffs have felt the NFL season. But that was

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Speaker 2: the guy they had to get, that was in the division.

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Speaker 2: He knows the best team in your division's offense in

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Speaker 2: and out. Like, if there's one guy that has the

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Speaker 2: secrets how to stop Detroit Lions offense, he's the guy.

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Speaker 2: And then you think about the pairing of him offensive

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Speaker 2: mind with Caleb Williams, It's it's, I mean, how can

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Speaker 2: you not be over the moon at this point. I

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Speaker 2: mean I could be big between about the money, like, oh,

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Speaker 2: I think they're overpaying them thirteen million. Who cares this

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Speaker 2: organization never spends the money. Yeah, it's I'm just so happy.

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Speaker 2: Like the Bears owner, who are notoriously cheap, they put

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Speaker 2: the money up, they went and got the guy, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: it literally I love every move he's already made so

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Speaker 2: far too, Like his hirings Dennis Allen for your defense,

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Speaker 2: I know people are like, oh, he's such a shitty

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Speaker 2: head coach. This guy was a huge reason that Saints

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Speaker 2: defense had a huge turnaround when he went there, Like, again,

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Speaker 2: if you're a Bears fan, you're you're absolutely killing this

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Speaker 2: offseason already, and I'm excited to see what happens here

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Speaker 2: going forward because you already know that. You know, don't

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Speaker 2: just go sign a bunch of big weapons, Go get

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Speaker 2: that offensive line attack it. That's that's the key. The

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Speaker 2: rest of the for me, for the Bears, the rest

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Speaker 2: of this offseason addressed the offensive line. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: home run. Got got to give tons of credit to

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Speaker 2: the front, front, ownership, everybody that runs the Bears right now,

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Speaker 2: because I mean, you like to shoot on them because

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Speaker 2: how shitty they've been. But even you were just like,

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Speaker 2: holy shit, we got them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm floored. I was convinced we were getting Brian

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Speaker 1: Flores or Mike McCarthy or Cliff Kings Bear.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It's also Look, it's also interesting nobody was right, none

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Speaker 1: of the reporting.

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Speaker 2: Schefty, Schefty. Let's give someone of the cheft.

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Speaker 1: Schefty was right when it was right, but in the

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Speaker 1: run up, not a single person. The conversation all weekend

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Speaker 1: was about Ben Johnson going to the Raiders and all

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Speaker 1: the brew haha, which was idiotic about tom Brady. Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady flipped the ventures and him calling the game and

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Speaker 1: what he can say to Ben Johnson, and then that

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Speaker 1: incredibly awkward interlude he had with with with Kevin Burkhart

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Speaker 1: about are you staying at Fox? You know, is this

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Speaker 1: a conflict? Like it was so performative and stupid, and

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Speaker 1: none of it mattered because Ben Johnson went to the Bears.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I happen to know, conversations with

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Speaker 1: the Bears were like deep in progress over the weekend

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Speaker 1: when all this was happening, so nobody had it and

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Speaker 1: nobody was right. So just fantastic.

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Speaker 2: They got to change the rules. I mean, it's if

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Speaker 2: you're a Detroit's fan, I get the rage. But they

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Speaker 2: got to change the rules because, like like you just said,

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Speaker 2: they were deep into conversations over the weekend. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's it's absurd, it was.

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Speaker 1: It was astonishing. But good for the Bears. I'm proud

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Speaker 1: of them, so proud of this team. I love this franchise.

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Speaker 1: I've given them so much I want them to give back.

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Speaker 1: That's it. That's it. I don't want to consign my

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Speaker 1: kid to a lifetime of misery. As a reminder, the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and

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Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

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Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we're going to go through Washington, Philadelphia,

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Speaker 1: We're going to go through Buffalo at Kansas City. I

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Speaker 1: will pull one important stat from Evan Abram's brilliant roundup

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Speaker 1: of stats, trends, and notes heading into the conference championship game,

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Speaker 1: which you can readnow on Action network dot com, read

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Speaker 1: it in the Action Network ap as. It pertains to underdogs.

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Speaker 1: So since two thousand and three, underdogs in the Conference

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Speaker 1: Championship are twenty and twenty two against the spread, the

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Speaker 1: only round of the playoffs below five hundred against the

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Speaker 1: spread in that span. In the Super Bowl era, since

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty six, underdogs fifty three sixty two and one

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Speaker 1: against the spread in the Conference Championship. That surprised you, sim.

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Speaker 2: A little bit, But like you just think too about

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Speaker 2: how random is I think you know obviously that Bengals

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Speaker 2: Rams here went two and oh dogs last year was

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Speaker 2: two and oh right, am I am? I wrong game?

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Speaker 2: I think last year was too and o Chiefs is

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Speaker 2: a dog against the Ravens. And I mean me and

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Speaker 2: Chad know we we or maybe travels on the other side.

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Speaker 2: But I remember the back door. The Lies are up

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Speaker 2: ten and we needed a backdoor to cover against.

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Speaker 1: The finaty with on the Niners.

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Speaker 2: No, no, I was definitely on the lines.

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Speaker 1: What was the oh right, right, right, right right. We

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Speaker 1: were on the we were on the Lions and we

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Speaker 1: were thrilled because it was going well, but we were.

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Speaker 2: Rather up ten. Then they had to back door to

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Speaker 2: get the like seven point covered everyone's But yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: so we're off to we have a couple of years

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Speaker 2: here since you know, since COVID where the dogs have

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Speaker 2: been covering. But what I take from that from Evan

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Speaker 2: is basically the laws of averages, Like we're due for

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Speaker 2: two and zero favorites week right, That's the way I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at it. Above. Yeah, the Dogs just went four

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Speaker 2: and oh against the closing number. I mean, we're going

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Speaker 2: to get into it here, but it's like, if the

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Speaker 2: line keeps moving on, obviously this Washington team, that's gonna

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Speaker 2: be value on the dog here. But right now, I

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Speaker 2: think we both talked Sunday night, I thought there was

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Speaker 2: value on the favorites. So yeah, it's not shocking to

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Speaker 2: see the early money coming in on the favorites.

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Speaker 1: Dogs seven and three in the playoffs so far, including

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Speaker 1: four and oh against the closing number this past weekend

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Speaker 1: hour youiter rate. I was going through my notes yesterday

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Speaker 1: and looked back at the notes from Sunday night based

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Speaker 1: on Evans' tweet about Dogs going four and zero against

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Speaker 1: the closing number. But the way those games landed, that's

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Speaker 1: a hall of Fame betting weekend, the fact that it

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Speaker 1: came down to Ravens, who opened a plus two, missed

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Speaker 1: a two point conversion in a flucush drop by a

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Speaker 1: guy who doesn't drop passes, and a game in which

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Speaker 1: their loss was partially set up by that same guy fumbling,

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Speaker 1: which he hadn't done since twenty nineteen, the Chiefs getting

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Speaker 1: a safety self induced for that game to land on

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Speaker 1: nine when the number was between eight and a half

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Speaker 1: and nine and a half all week, the the Eagles

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Speaker 1: pushing at six because of Jake Elliot extra points like

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Speaker 1: and then, by the way, the college football playoff last night,

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Speaker 1: that game closed at eight and a half, opened at

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. It was at eight, and you know,

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Speaker 1: with ninety seconds left, it's third and long ish and

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Speaker 1: you're thinking, maybe we got a shot here to cover

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Speaker 1: as a Notre Dame backer. They go fifty six yards

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Speaker 1: and score a game clinching covering field goal. What it like,

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Speaker 1: the drama around the edges of these numbers has just

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Speaker 1: been insane.

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Speaker 2: It's been so exciting, and it's it's also why you know,

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Speaker 2: there's plenty of crazy people out there that believe there's

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Speaker 2: some guy in the Swiss Alps with a time machine

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Speaker 2: that makes these lines. Because you see a weekend like this,

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Speaker 2: it's it's literally just shows how smart the bookmakers are

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Speaker 2: and why we give so much respect to them. We

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Speaker 2: talk about it because all these games are half a point,

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Speaker 2: half a point point here, and like you just said, stupidness,

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Speaker 2: randomness to land on those exact numbers, right, who missed

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Speaker 2: two pointers? Miss extra point? And yeah, that's why we

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Speaker 2: talk all the time that you know, people are like,

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Speaker 2: why do you guys get so spooked off the number?

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Speaker 2: This past year was just weird where numbers didn't really

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Speaker 2: matter when these island games happen, though, and the books

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Speaker 2: are really locked in, right, They're just all focused on

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Speaker 2: hyper focus on these games. There's always gonna be outliers

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Speaker 2: like that Commander's game, but usually the one to two

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Speaker 2: points are gonna matter, especially in the playoffs. And like

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Speaker 2: we just said, this past weekend, you know we personally

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Speaker 2: on the show or I did, I should say, went

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Speaker 2: three to zero to one, right, the one push against

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Speaker 2: the Eagles should have been a four to oh weekend.

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Speaker 2: But the books are just so sharp and make it

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Speaker 2: so tough on paper. Depends when you got our numbers

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Speaker 2: you might have went to and two. Right, you lost

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Speaker 2: them the Chiefs, you lost them the Eagles. Like it's

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Speaker 2: brutal because the books are just that sharp right now.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, we talked Sunday night the numbers we gave

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Speaker 2: out Chad. They got slammed. And that's just how it

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Speaker 2: is in this point in the time of year where

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Speaker 2: it's like the books are smart. They'll take the professional

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Speaker 2: money ear in the week and they'll move heavy off

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Speaker 2: respected money. And yeah, like I can't wait diving these

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Speaker 2: games because it's it's the best time here. You get

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Speaker 2: the best football and you get the smartest book bookmaker

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Speaker 2: wise like number wise, so it really is the best.

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Speaker 1: Washington at Philly. The number is minus six. The total

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Speaker 1: is forty seven and a half, Eagles six point favorites.

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Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday night. I bet this

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Speaker 1: as soon as it opened at four and a half.

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Speaker 1: For two reasons. I just I wondered if bookmakers were

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Speaker 1: keeping it a bit low in case they were worried

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Speaker 1: about Jalen Hurts not playing. Since the line posted before

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Speaker 1: that Eagles Rams game was over, I had been wanting

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Speaker 1: to fade Washington since the second it's game with the Lions,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, like, when you beat the number one seeded

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Speaker 1: team as badly as they did in a high scoring

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Speaker 1: game in prime time with thirty three million people watching,

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Speaker 1: there is no way they are not going to be

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Speaker 1: overvalued the next day. So I was a little dismayed.

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Speaker 1: You and I chatted on Sunday night, and I was

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Speaker 1: all in on betting the four and a half. And

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Speaker 1: then even in the conversation, I got seven books in

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Speaker 1: front of me looking at Action Network and sort of

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Speaker 1: running across the screen. Five of them were at five

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Speaker 1: or five and a half, including bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: only two or at four and a half, And I

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Speaker 1: felt like you, even though you said your rating was

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Speaker 1: at seven, you weren't banging the drum to go after

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Speaker 1: the four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because I know my quarterback. I watched him after

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Speaker 2: the game laugh and give insane answers to the media

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Speaker 2: woman interviewing them, and it's like, this dude's on a

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Speaker 2: ton of drugs. This dude is drugged the fuck up,

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Speaker 2: Like his knees gotta be bad. Because Jalen's not the

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Speaker 2: type of dude that it's like, yeah, shoot me up

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Speaker 2: with whatever I need. To get out there. He's he's

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Speaker 2: the kind of guy that he just wants to fight

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Speaker 2: through and if he's in that much pain, I was like,

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Speaker 2: holy shit, I need them to do some tests before

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Speaker 2: I'm putting heavy money onto this team, because like we

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Speaker 2: talked about, like, yeah, I made the number seven, it

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Speaker 2: was four and a half. Obviously I'm going to take

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Speaker 2: a position on him, but my whole point was I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to hammer this one like I was with

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Speaker 2: the Chief Stummer because I'm just like this, this this,

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Speaker 2: you know, you nail it. Obviously this number is alway

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Speaker 2: up to six and a half and most books, but

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Speaker 2: you know that's part of my job. Like I put

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Speaker 2: the number out there that had at seven. If we

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Speaker 2: come in today and it's three and a half, I

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Speaker 2: look like a fucking idiot. It's like that number went

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Speaker 2: three and a half against what I just said. Luckily

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Speaker 2: it's gone the other way, and I think that, you know,

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Speaker 2: what you just talked about gives us more confidence about

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Speaker 2: Hurts that he is going to be healthy in this spot.

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Speaker 2: There are so many different things we could dive into

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Speaker 2: this game. Where do you want to start even start

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Speaker 2: a Commanders or Eagle side?

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Speaker 1: I want to start with the person I think might

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Speaker 1: be the most important player on the field for the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: which is who is Jalen Carter. And the fact that

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Speaker 1: commanders are going to be without Sam Cosmi their right guard. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and to me, normally a right guard not mean as

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Speaker 1: much on passing downs, but with Carter it's so different.

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Speaker 1: And Evan had this great stat in his packet, the

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Speaker 1: fourth most pass block snaps for any guard this year

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Speaker 1: were from Sam Cosmy. That's a fifty one guards with

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Speaker 1: at least five hundred pass blocking snaps. He was one

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Speaker 1: of eleven with one sack or fewer allowed. So to me,

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Speaker 1: I look, we already love the Eagles for a variety

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Speaker 1: of reasons, but to me, it begins and ends with

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Speaker 1: this defensive line, and that begins and ends with Jalen Carter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just brutal, like brutal, brutal loss that offense. It's

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Speaker 2: basically it feels like the hierarchy goes jayde Daniels, Terry

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Speaker 2: McLaurin than him. Like that was the three most important

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Speaker 2: parts of my opinions of their offense, and you nailed it.

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Speaker 2: Like how dominant that guy's been in pass for now?

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Speaker 2: We know, Jadan Daniels helps those numbers, right, Like if

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Speaker 2: you have a like Josh Allen, Like, if you have

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Speaker 2: a quarterback that can move, it's gonna make the lines

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Speaker 2: and numbers look way better and kind of give them

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Speaker 2: the free bump. But when you really dive into it,

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Speaker 2: this guy is so legit and the fact that he's

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Speaker 2: gonna be missing here it's so macho. I've been just

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Speaker 2: I just want to touch on what you touched at

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Speaker 2: the top of it about we already knew were probably

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Speaker 2: can be on the Eagles just because the j nails

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Speaker 2: is get more of a value in the spot. I mean,

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Speaker 2: even screaming a Smith on espen Is saying he likes

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Speaker 2: them to win the Super Bowl. Now that this is

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Speaker 2: the team of destiny, You're dead. You are absolutely dead.

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Speaker 2: When the man who doesn't watch football in fifteen years

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Speaker 2: is saying you're the team of destiny, you are absolutely dead.

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Speaker 2: So I feel bad for the Washington Commanders, but they

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Speaker 2: can live in this moment. You never know. That's what's

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Speaker 2: so great about the playoffs, this exact spot, Like we're

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Speaker 2: a couple of just talking heads. Fuck if we know

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Speaker 2: like the game, the game can have weird bounces and

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Speaker 2: they can easily win this game. They've put themselves in

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Speaker 2: this position, but this is a game when you dive

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Speaker 2: into the numbers, they are dead on arrival. Like there

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Speaker 2: really is so many things that need to go their

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Speaker 2: way for them to pull off this upset, just because

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Speaker 2: they are so underwhelmingly matched in so many different areas

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Speaker 2: of this football game. And we just talked about them

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Speaker 2: being overvalued, Chad, have you looked at futures at all

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Speaker 2: for next season?

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's fucking insane.

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Speaker 2: They're sixteen to sixteen to one.

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Speaker 1: These Commanders, the Commanders, the Commanders is absurd right now.

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Speaker 2: So they're above the forty nine Ers, the Packers, the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: just to name a few right now. In the future

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Speaker 2: Bowl Super odds next year, it's it's peak, Like we

345
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Speaker 2: know the deal, Like Jane Dangels will be lucky, lucky

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Speaker 2: to make the playoffs next year because we know Regression's

347
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Speaker 2: gonna hit him like crack in the eighties. He is

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Speaker 2: gonna be hurting next year, Like the league is going

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Speaker 2: to figure him out and a bunch of different ways.

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Speaker 2: And that's just how it is in this league. Like

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Speaker 2: we talk all the time, these are the best of

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Speaker 2: the best. They the coaches are paid millions of dollars

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Speaker 2: to sit back there and figure out ways. And you

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Speaker 2: know this is this could be peaked. That's why I

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Speaker 2: don't want to be shitting on this Commander's think too much.

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Speaker 2: We've seen it so many times that you know, Dan

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Speaker 2: Marino the greatest quarterback when I was growing up in

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Speaker 2: my lifetime, like watching on him in film. You know,

359
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Speaker 2: paying man time, Brady replaced him in my opinion of

360
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Speaker 2: being the next, like the greatest. But Marino, you go

361
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Speaker 2: back and watch your tape. It's flucish that he never

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Speaker 2: made it back to the super Bowl. That's why Washington fans,

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Speaker 2: you should enjoy this. You're literally a win away from

364
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Speaker 2: the super Bowl. I'm sorry, I'm about to dive into

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Speaker 2: these numbers and just shit on your team in a

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Speaker 2: bunch of different ways, but that's what we're here to do. Chad,

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Speaker 2: and I just want to start right with their defense.

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Speaker 2: Something mean, you talked about their run defense. That is

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Speaker 2: the biggest thing that jumps out to you when you

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Speaker 2: dive in any of these numbers. I know, you know

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Speaker 2: there are summers that saying they do get better in

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Speaker 2: the second half, they are able to make adjustments and

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Speaker 2: their run defense doesn't prove in the second half, but

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Speaker 2: just over the over the course of the season. Twenty

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Speaker 2: six and run defense dvoa, Okay, that's alarming. Twenty thirty

376
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Speaker 2: and justin line thirty first and second level yards allowed

377
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Speaker 2: so past the five and ten yard marker twenty just

378
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Speaker 2: where lives twenty six and open field yards allowed.

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Speaker 1: So when Barkley lives.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it couldn't be worse. I mean, Evan

381
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Speaker 2: just put our chat rushing proper saquon one hundred and

382
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Speaker 2: twenty seven yards might be too low. It might be

383
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Speaker 2: too low. It's like to me, I was trying to

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Speaker 2: find an angle for the Commanders just because you know

385
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 2: hurts his banged up. Janie Daniels is the difference maker.

386
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Speaker 2: We've never seen a rookie quarterback like him. But that

387
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Speaker 2: defense is a real issue now when we really break

388
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Speaker 2: this down and look at the games, me and you

389
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 2: were all over Tampa against this Commander's team. We even

390
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Speaker 2: said it, if Baker just played a little bit smarter,

391
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Speaker 2: that's a no brainer win cover double digits. Yes, Like

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Speaker 2: we both feel the same exact way about that.

393
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Speaker 1: I feel like I'm your chorus right now, anything you say.

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Speaker 2: But it's just like you really dive into and I

395
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 2: get the hype, but that's what people have to push

396
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 2: through the media bullshit of the shiny new toy. No

397
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Speaker 2: one wants to see an Eagles chief Super Bowl. I'm

398
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Speaker 2: an Eagles fan. I would love nothing more for a

399
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback to be playing the Bills, all the Bills

400
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 2: history shit. Honestly, I'm again I'm an Eagles fan. So yes,

401
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,400
Speaker 2: deep down I want the Eagles clearly, but I'm saying

402
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 2: as a fan of football, no, Like, dude, it killed

403
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 2: me last year having to talk forty nine Ers Chiefs again.

404
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: No one wanted to talk that again. So it's like

405
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 2: that's part of it. I get where I get where

406
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 2: the media is coming from hyping up this team right now,

407
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: but when you really go through it, they needed Baker

408
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 2: to have a disaster game, to have that type of game.

409
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 2: They needed golf to melt, like absolutely melt. And we

410
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 2: joked about it, if they just handed the ball off

411
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Speaker 2: that entire game, I really do think they probably win

412
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Speaker 2: that game and Detroit Lions, and they're now in a

413
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Speaker 2: spot playing an Eagles team that is plus six in

414
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 2: the turnover rate. But I think we could both agree

415
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 2: chat they've not played their best football in two weeks

416
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Speaker 2: in the playoffs, like they've left a lot of plays

417
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Speaker 2: on the field, Like they have struggled different ways, And

418
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Speaker 2: now is it coming to a team that honestly, if

419
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Speaker 2: this is the regular season, this would be the perfect

420
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Speaker 2: spot to back this Eagles team in the sense of

421
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: they match up grade against them and this is the

422
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Speaker 2: kind of spot where they get back into their groove

423
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Speaker 2: of what they've been this regular season. And you know

424
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Speaker 2: the fact that the defensive numbers are what they are

425
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Speaker 2: for the rush defense, that's everything to me because I

426
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Speaker 2: agreed with a lot of what you said about the

427
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Speaker 2: Ravens and Bills, like those biggest weakness was the rush,

428
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Speaker 2: and that's why I got where you were coming from.

429
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Speaker 2: It's the same thing here and Hurts on the flip side,

430
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Speaker 2: he's been the gift that he's been doing. He's not

431
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 2: turning the ball over. That's why these Eagles teams have

432
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: been winning these last two games. So yeah, it's it's

433
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 2: when you dive into it and we're going to the

434
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 2: commander side right now. It's the first thing that jumps

435
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: out to me. Yes, we're all impressed by Jane Daniels,

436
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 2: but it's really this defense that they're just they're totally

437
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 2: being overlooked here, like no one's bringing up their defense

438
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: just because we're all so enamored with Jaden Daniels right now.

439
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, the defense, the defense got so torched by the

440
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: Lions running game. The Lions almost pulled not almost, they

441
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 1: kind of did pull what the Ravens pulled the year

442
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: before against the Chiefs and the championship game. All they

443
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: had to do was keep giving the ball to Jamiir

444
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 1: Gibbs and they kept you know, they got too cute

445
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: by half a couple of times, especially on that Jamison

446
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: Williams pass right, and so like those things are game

447
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 1: killers in the playoffs, the Eagles don't have that benefit.

448
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurt is hobbled like and by the way, we

449
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: still don't have official confirmation he's playing this weekend. We

450
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: just haven't been given confirmation that he's got structural damage

451
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 1: or anything that would keep him from playing, So we

452
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: have to assume that he's playing. And by the way,

453
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 1: the way the numbers moving gives every indication that he

454
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: is playing.

455
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: And Earl's respective money, Right, That's what I was going to.

456
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: Say, Like, yeah, we've we've seen on this show how

457
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: often Simon is able to indicate ahead of the market

458
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: because he has sources throughout the NFL, as do a

459
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: lot of professional betters. It's not just Adam Schefter, Like

460
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: everybody has sources in the NFL. I knew over the

461
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 1: weekend what was going on with the Bears, Like the people.

462
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 2: Have to talk, people like to talk, and so.

463
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 1: Like it's it's people aren't heading heavy on the Eagles

464
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: right now because they're guessing Jalen Hurts, Yeah, might play.

465
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: The Eagles don't have the same predilections as as the Lions, right,

466
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: they don't have the same kind of offense. Their offense

467
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 1: is run behind Jordan Mylatta, run behind Lane Johnson, give

468
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: the ball the Saquon Bark. We let him get one

469
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven and a half yards in one

470
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: play and on the third and four roll Jalen Hurts out,

471
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: you know, and like keep moving the ball, wait for

472
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: that big play beat down the other side of the defense.

473
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, they're just good and the Commander's defense is

474
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: so bad.

475
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: And even if Hurts is banged up. We just talked

476
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 2: about it. They'll shoot him up, and to me, we've

477
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 2: seen time time again. I mean, one of my favorite

478
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 2: bets ever. I lost to chat We went head to head.

479
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: I like Cleveland, he liked the Browns. It was Deshaun

480
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 2: Watson's last game maybe ever for the Cleveland Browns. And

481
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 2: basically they're down I think ten ten and a half and

482
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: Watson breaks his collar bone. They shoot him up. He

483
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: comes out and is basically perfect really against the Ravens

484
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 2: the second half. And you've seen that time and time again.

485
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: My favorite two Aaron Rodgers against your Bears team came

486
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: on that second half, all messed up, was perfect in

487
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: the game flowless to the second half, and it's just

488
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: because it turns off that thinking piece, right. And you know,

489
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: we joked about that egos game. People. I told you

490
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 2: they were gonna do it. They were gonna shit on

491
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 2: Hurts after that game last week because he'd have the

492
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 2: numbers negating AJ Brown dropped that touchdown, nagatting. He had

493
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: another drop for another twenty yards. You know, Smith had

494
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 2: a drop that was another twenty thirty yards. It's like,

495
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: that's just how it is, right because a lot of

496
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: these guys don't watch these games, which sounds crazy. People

497
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 2: what I'm telling you, they just don't. They're living the

498
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 2: good life, so to me. You know, even if Hurts

499
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: is hampered, here, we broke it down what we think

500
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 2: this is gonna be. This is going to be a lean,

501
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: heavy on run game. Hurts same thing he's been all season,

502
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs here. Fifteen to sixteen completions maybe

503
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 2: twenty five twenty four passes total. That's what the Egles

504
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: want to be. And it's we saw with Josh Allen

505
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: the Bills. The teams have figured it out where if

506
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 2: you're just smart, protect the ball and run it, let

507
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 2: the other team make them a stick. It's it's impossible

508
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: now to pick up big chunk plays usually let them

509
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 2: didn't get dunk down the field and wait for the

510
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 2: Nike mistake. I do think it's stolen from the Chiefs.

511
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 2: Like that's what the Chiefs model has been the last

512
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 2: two years, and all these teams have leaned into and

513
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: adapted to it. And that's not Washington's game, Like, that's

514
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 2: not who Jane Daniels is. So yeah, this I like

515
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: the hype. I just love it all right, now because

516
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: it is fueling the public reception even the Action app.

517
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,719
Speaker 2: I was looking for a game on the tickets all

518
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 2: all in Washington, even though it's moved against them, because

519
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 2: you look in the action app, the money right now

520
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: is on the Eagles, so it is professional money obviously

521
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: early here. And you know, I know you love referee stats.

522
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: Have you seen any of the ref stats for this

523
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: game yet?

524
00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 1: I just saw one, the one about Sean Hockey Lee

525
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: that Evan had as the only one I've seen.

526
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Eagles six and oh we Shaan Hockley five

527
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 2: and one against the spread, Commanders one and two, oh

528
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 2: and three against a straight up oh and three against

529
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 2: the spread with him, And again it doesn't really matter.

530
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: That's kind of like a random, just stupid stat. But

531
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 2: there's a lot of ones this week that are just

532
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 2: like that, that kind of back up that you know,

533
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: this is just a bad spot for this Commander's team.

534
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 2: The biggest one I took from Evan was the Commanders

535
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 2: of the eighth team since two thousand air playoff game

536
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: on their fourth road ro game in a row, fourth

537
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 2: road game in a row, so pretty big deal. Those

538
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: previous seven oh and seven straight up won five and

539
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 2: one against the spread, this exact spot. So the Commanders

540
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 2: are just already in a really tough spot and there's

541
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 2: already a lot of factors going against them defensively, offensively.

542
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, we talked about this. This rookie the greatest

543
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: we've ever seen, never see anything like it. He nearly

544
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 2: he literally needs to be perfect in this game for

545
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: them to pull up this upset. So that's why right

546
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 2: now I think we're both in agreeance. It's still under seven.

547
00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: I still think the value is on this Eagles team.

548
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 2: It's so that's that was a long window way to

549
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: get there. But that's what I wanted to get into

550
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 2: is just there's so many different numbers back in this

551
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 2: Eagles team in this spot, not just what we know

552
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: is better is which is this is going to be

553
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 2: an overvalue team. On the flip side, Eagles who didn't

554
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 2: cover for about ninety percent of the betters who took them,

555
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: and you know, they look bad. They have a bang

556
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: up quarterback. They're now the underrated team, favored at home

557
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: and a spot that's great for them. So a very

558
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: unique spot for back in this Eagles team.

559
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: Two things I'm glad you brought up number one. There

560
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: are when you get to this stage, a shitload of

561
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: red herring stats, right that, the Hockey League stat, the

562
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,479
Speaker 1: other stat about the you know, four straight road games.

563
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: They're good information, but they're not the information you base

564
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: your decision on, and oftentimes our first instinct on the

565
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: after at this point, you know, what is it nineteen weeks,

566
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: twenty weeks of watching football and seeing these games and

567
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: seeing how the market is moving, your first instinct on

568
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: the number. I have found it much easier during the

569
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: playoffs to bet with confidence on Sunday Night than I

570
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: was during the season because there's only so many games.

571
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: At this point of the season, you have a good

572
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: at sense of which way the market is going to

573
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: move based on who won and the perception of that

574
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 1: team going forward. And so this was an obvious one.

575
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: I will give you one last stat because this one

576
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: felt like it was a big enough sample size. The

577
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: Commanders have won seven in a row. Fifteen teams have

578
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: entered a conference championship game on a seven plus game

579
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: straight up win streak since two thousand and four, four

580
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: and eleven against the spread, failing to cover by four

581
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: and a half points. So week you talked about an

582
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: autline on the Eagles at I think minus ten. That's

583
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: how this might line up too, if we want to

584
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: get a little funky and we're starting to feel really

585
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: confident about the Eagles.

586
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot. There's a lot of meat on

587
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: that bone for sure.

588
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 1: Hey, as an Eagles fan, now that I can bask

589
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: in the glory of having probably the best offensive mine

590
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: in a generation and a guy like already getting fitted

591
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: for Super Bowl rings, Nick Sirianni has clearly bought himself

592
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: another year and all this week because the media is

593
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: so predictable, glowing glowing, glowing, glowing stories about Nick Sirianni

594
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: and how he connects with his players and Nick Sirianni

595
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 1: and how he has remained calm and comfortable throughout this

596
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: entire hot seat process. How do you feel about Nick

597
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: Sirianni continuing to be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

598
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: I'm tough to get off my views of people, Like,

599
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: once I have a view on you, you rub me

600
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 2: the wrong way, I'm kind of stuck in on it,

601
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: and I just I'll never get there with them. Unfortunately,

602
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 2: even if we get to the super Bowl, maybe that

603
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 2: would be it. Maybe if we win it, I'll be like, Okay,

604
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: I do give this guy too much, but I'm still

605
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 2: the mindset of it's all Howie baby, Like Howie's just

606
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 2: given him the best possible car you can drive, and

607
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: his whole job is just not to fuck this up.

608
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: And that rams game chat, I was about twenty seconds

609
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: away from him being fired, Like they scored that touchdown

610
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: there at the end, and we lose that game. I mean,

611
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,719
Speaker 2: unless he knows something about Jeffrey Leard, we don't know.

612
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: You gotta fire him after that type of loss you

613
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: lose when you're up thirteen with four minutes to go

614
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 2: and you blow that, that would be on him. But yeah,

615
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 2: I mean I've seen all the stats. He has the

616
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: most wins in NFL history in his first four seasons coaching.

617
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: But i mean, we all see what's happening here. It's

618
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: like one of the best teams you can put onto

619
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: the field. It's all built by Howie. And you know,

620
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 2: I'll give him his roses that he is a good

621
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: team coach and he's kept these guys in his right

622
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 2: mindset and we're a game away from the super Bowl here,

623
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, I's still like that game with that rams

624
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: game chat. That's why I just it's hard for me

625
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: with him sometimes because those games snowball and they keep

626
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: showing him on the sideline with his dumb look on

627
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 2: his face. I'm just like, he is there's nothing happening

628
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: right now, and this guy, this guy is not. There's

629
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: nothing he can do right now. This is totally out

630
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: of his control. And yeah, it's it's incredible what he's done.

631
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: You know, he might go back to back Super Bowls

632
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: in two years. It's pretty impressive. Obviously.

633
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: It's like, by the way, you mentioned Dan Marino is

634
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: like in your lifetime, Dude, Den Marino's my lifetime. He's

635
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: not your lifetime.

636
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: I drafted Dan Marino in fantasy football, so shut the

637
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: fuck up, chat, He's in my lifetime. When did you.

638
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 1: Draft Dan Marino in fantasy football? He retired? And like,

639
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: when did you retire?

640
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 2: Like eight ninety eight, Jesus Christ, you were three. I

641
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: appreciate that a little older than that, but I got him.

642
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: Before we get to Bill's jeeves, it has come to

643
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: our attention, so we had a little fun before the

644
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: season started. A huge percentage of our current favorite audience

645
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: has never seen something something important, very important, which we

646
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: aired back on August twenty seventh. Let's fix that right now. So,

647
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell played a very long con on me over

648
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: the course of a full year. Enjoy all right, Matt

649
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: Mitchell pulled a long con on me all last football

650
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: season with an ad reag prank that took him months

651
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: to execute. I'm going to bring in Matt Mitchell to

652
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: explain the con that he pulled on me, and listen.

653
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: Kudos to him because he worked this and staged straight

654
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: faced for months while I made a fool of myself.

655
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: Okay, last, but not least, Uncle.

656
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: Mitch ched You and I have been working together now

657
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 3: for a seventh NFL season, And like a lot of

658
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 3: our talent, you're a.

659
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: Real busy guy.

660
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 3: You're busy being an executive doing meetings and such. You know,

661
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: a lot of our maniacs excimon are busy with you know,

662
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 3: handicapping Sam Houston, State or MLB stuff plus rates or whatever.

663
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 3: And like a lot of our talent, you're also made

664
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 3: to do ad reads by me for our network. Unlike

665
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 3: the rest of our talent, though, I learned that you

666
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: will read absolutely anything I put in front of you,

667
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 3: Ron Burgundy style with almost no feedback, You'll just knock

668
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 3: it out and you're onto the next thing, which is

669
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 3: a gift, and I do appreciate that. Unfortunately, I did

670
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: decide to take advantage of that, and over basically a

671
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 3: full calendar year, anytime we had a real ad read

672
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: to do, I would also write and make you read

673
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 3: a second entirely phony and increasingly ludicrous adread, which you

674
00:34:54,440 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 3: would happily knock out with almost no feedback whatsoever. And

675
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: once we'd gotten a lot of them, we cut them

676
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 3: together into a montage that Simon has now seen for.

677
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: The first time.

678
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 3: OCASEI skips all company meetings and and I just want

679
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 3: to say, I'm really proud of you, and we'll play

680
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 3: it right now so everyone can can have the context.

681
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 3: Please enjoy chad reading entirely fabricated sponsorship reads.

682
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,720
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Speaker 1: Ahay Simon, Would you think.

713
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: I loved it? As someone that's watching it, It's like,

714
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 2: how does this guy not know that these things are fake?

715
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I'm a professional. If someone is paying us,

716
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: I give it my all. I read it with enthusiasm.

717
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: I respect Matt Mitchell's time. I respect Matt Mitchell as

718
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 1: the producer of this show. If he says we got

719
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 1: to read, I say great, I'm going to go in.

720
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to read it with gusto. The words I

721
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 1: don't know what they are. I am just reading them

722
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 1: with gusto. Matt Mitchell, you disrespect in my time and

723
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: my talent. This might be the last show you ever do.

724
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it would be worth it because I will say

725
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 3: one ying Yang Twins, if you're listening, we'd love to

726
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 3: get in business with you. You guys are the best.

727
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 3: My wife loved that read the most. I'll also note

728
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 3: that a couple of times, when you'd stumble in them,

729
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: you'd go like, oh, this is kind of a weird one.

730
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 3: I'd want to totally crack up and lose it. So

731
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 3: I would react to that by just shouting at you,

732
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,479
Speaker 3: because that was I need to react in a big

733
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 3: way to cover that I was laughing. So I'd be like,

734
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: shut up, Chad, just finish reading it, and you'd be like, okay, Jesus,

735
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 3: all right. So yeah, I almost lost it a couple

736
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 3: of times, but we uh, we stuck the landing. I'm

737
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 3: proud of you, and I look forward to taking advantage

738
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 3: of you in a similar way when you're least suspecting it.

739
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,919
Speaker 1: In the future, your suspect Matt Mitchell, and I am

740
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: onto you. I will be questioning everything from now on.

741
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, it's time for an ad read, A

742
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: real ad read. Our producer Matt Mitchell does look incredibly

743
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 1: confident this week, full of zeal with a renewed lust

744
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: for life. I think some of his hair may even

745
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: be growing back, and I assumed it was because his

746
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: Buffalo bills are headed back to the AFC Championship Game.

747
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 1: Upon closer inspection, I was mistaken. It's because he's decked

748
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,800
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Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Buffalo at Kansas City.

760
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: This is the primetime game. Some would say it's the

761
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: main event. Kansas City is a one and a half

762
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 1: point favorite. At least they were as we came on

763
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: the air. I have not checked the number. In the

764
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 1: last you know, forty minutes, the total is forty seven

765
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: and a half. Before we get into it, I do

766
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: want to say I love our watchers and our viewers

767
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: and our listeners because the Saquon Barkley Russian prop that

768
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 1: started at one hundred and twenty seven and a half

769
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 1: is now up to one hundred and twenty nine and

770
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: a half. So good for you guys from jumping on

771
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: that so fast way to move the market. Here we

772
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: go again, Simon AFC Title Game, Patrick Mahomes short favorite.

773
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: We both loved it one and a half on Sunday night.

774
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.

775
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 1: Simon says Chiefs minus one and a half.

776
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 4: When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says,

777
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 4: This line's gonna go up to two two and a

778
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 4: half by kicking my opinion, I just I do think

779
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 4: the professionals will come in on this chief side.

780
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 2: It's it really is a game where you know, not

781
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: to take anything from this way. From this Bill's season,

782
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: it's been incredible. I think even Bills fans would tell

783
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: you this was supposed to be, you know, win the division,

784
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 2: maybe get in as a four to three seed. Happiest

785
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 2: hell to be at this spot and Obviously, when you're

786
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: carrying whatever it is, thirty million, it could be a

787
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: dead cap because of Stefan Diggs. It's a big deal.

788
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 2: They have an aging defense. We've heard ad nauseam how

789
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: they have a small, undersized defense that can be run on.

790
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 2: We know the deal. It's it's Josh Allen. It's the

791
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 2: magic of Josh Allen. So if you're something that is

792
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: betting him here, you're basically that's all you can hang

793
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 2: your hat on. You're just betting on the year of

794
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. And again the reason I thought he was

795
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 2: the MVP, him and paying many the only All pros

796
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 2: ever to have no thether all pros on their team. Like,

797
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: that's an insane stat This guy was an All Pro.

798
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 2: I mean we talked that. You didn't do it alone. Obviously,

799
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 2: it's a full team. The offensive line cooks the running

800
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: back like he has weapons. But it is all Josh Allen.

801
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 2: Like that game again, the Rave that was the new

802
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, the smart Josh Allen that doesn't make mistakes,

803
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: shoot himself in the foot, Josh Allen. I mean, you

804
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 2: know I was waiting for it. I don't know about you, Chaid.

805
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 2: I was waiting for it in that game, Like I

806
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 2: was like, one's coming with Josh. He's gonna throw one.

807
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: He's gonna be he's gonna get passed, he's gonna be impatient,

808
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: because you could see that second half he was getting

809
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 2: pissed off. He was like, why is mcderman not let

810
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: me just run this offense right now? Why we keep

811
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: running into these seven front walls? And he didn't, He

812
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 2: didn't do it, Like I really tend my hat to him.

813
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 3: Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they

814
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: have to do.

815
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 2: It's that's my favorite part about this is seeing the

816
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 2: growth in different players, and it's like that was the

817
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 2: next step for Josh was to get rid of the

818
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 2: stupid turner, especially in the road zone, and he's done that.

819
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, sad into this game. No one's model should

820
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: have the bills of the favorite here. They should be

821
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 2: an underdog on this spot like the Chiefs. They're a

822
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,479
Speaker 2: better team across the board. The number being below three

823
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 2: is just to respect that the bookmakers and a lot

824
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: of professionals have for Josh Allen and what he's done

825
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: this season and the fear I've been against him. Right,

826
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 2: that's another part of this. But you know, when I

827
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 2: dove into this game, the first thing I thought to myself, Chad,

828
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 2: was I would handicap this totally different if this was

829
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: an Orchard Park rather than it's an Arrowhead. And that

830
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 2: to me is the difference. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows

831
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: the only games they've lost this year, what's the big

832
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 2: common de factor in all those games? It's on the road.

833
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: Like they were perfect at home this season, but on

834
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 2: the road it was just a different story. You know,

835
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 2: they lost the Ravens, we all remember that in September

836
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 2: ten to thirty five. Then they lost to Houston, a

837
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 2: game we loved. Then they had that you know, crazy

838
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 2: game against the Rams that josh Awen did everything he

839
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: could still fell short, right because of this defense. They

840
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 2: gave up forty four points. They lost forty two to

841
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: forty four, insane win. The next week against the Lions

842
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 2: were like, seriously, he was full on god mode. They

843
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 2: went forty eight to forty two. Like we're talking insane

844
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 2: numbers here. And then obviously we don't really account it.

845
00:43:58,239 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 2: They had lost the New England Patriots end of the

846
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 2: season and on the road. And you know, when I

847
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 2: break it, all down with this Bill's team. It's like

848
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: it's all about what kind of josh Allen's gonna show

849
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 2: up here, Chad, Like I know, betting the Chiefs here,

850
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: we could get easily get burned. If josh Awn has

851
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 2: the ball last, I just can't see him losing it,

852
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: like this is his year. It really is like it's

853
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 2: his moment. That's why I love all the conversation around

854
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 2: Lamar getting too much shape for that game. It's like, well,

855
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 2: if you would have got the two pointer, the game

856
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 2: would have been tied. Yeah, josh Awn had a minute

857
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: thirty two timeouts, Like that game was dead, it was over.

858
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: And you know when I look at this game here,

859
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 2: it's the same type of view. If if josh has

860
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: the ball and last, I do think I'll get burned here.

861
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 2: But I mean you talk Sunday night. I do think

862
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 2: it's about the number here and one and a half.

863
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 2: To me, that's great value. Like it's below the key

864
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 2: number of two, which I talk all the time about

865
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 2: that Ravens game landed on two. We see it all

866
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 2: the time now though it's it's too has become such

867
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 2: an important number. So that's why I made it. Simon

868
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: says Chad, I just when I saw that you could

869
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 2: still get one and a half right now at our

870
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 2: sponsor a BETHUSIXS five. It's like, tell the people go

871
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 2: a get I know depends on your look, but stay

872
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 2: here and you might already be stuck on the two.

873
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 2: But I really hope you can find the one and

874
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 2: a half. It's just such a key number.

875
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 1: I'm actually I'm shocked that it hadn't moved to already,

876
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: because the juice has been headed in that direction for

877
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,359
Speaker 1: at least twenty four hours, so the fact that it's

878
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: still send at one and a half is a bit

879
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 1: of surprise. You beat me at the punch on the

880
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: Simon says, because I want to make this my execut decision.

881
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

882
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: Are you heavy on Honor's text to cut the executive decision?

883
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 2: Do it? I mean there's like four games to pick up.

884
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 2: I mean there are two games to pick from.

885
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 1: So what I would like to do, because the other

886
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: thing I was going to do was grab the Chiefs

887
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 1: on the money line at minus one twenty five, because

888
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 1: that is still available, yeah, still a relatively good price.

889
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 1: I would like permission from you and from Matt Mitchell

890
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 1: as the partners and arbiters of our rules, that it's

891
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 1: not a cop out to be taking Kansas DIY on

892
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:02,879
Speaker 1: the money line, because I do have reasons to want

893
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: to do it, and the number is so short that

894
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 1: it's not like I'm taking a six point favorite.

895
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 2: What the fuck is happening?

896
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: What the fuck is.

897
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's blow minus one fifty. I'll definitely yeah, Matt

898
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 2: Mitchell allowed, I'll all out. It's not that I am taken.

899
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: My exact decision is Casey on the money line. Here's

900
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 1: a stat from Yeah, give me some stats in home

901
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: games in November or later when the temperature is forty

902
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 1: degrees or less. Mahomes is twenty three and two straight

903
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 1: up in his career. He's won twenty in a row,

904
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: twenty in a row, hasn't lost since losing to Tom

905
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: Brady in twenty nineteen. So I know, like, okay, great regression,

906
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: jinx whatever, Like it's Patrick Mahomes. And Brady actually said

907
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: something he was on Cowhard the other day. He said

908
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: something that I thought was just crazy smart. Why is

909
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes so good in the playoffs Because more often

910
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: than not, especially at the end of the game, You've

911
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 1: got to stop him for four downs. And it's so

912
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: freaking hard to stop Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes four

913
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,919
Speaker 1: straight downs for moving the ball and getting the first

914
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: down that they need. It just is. And so as

915
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: much as you are saying Josh Allen gets the ball

916
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 1: at the end, Patrick Mahomes gets the ball at the end.

917
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

918
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 1: And I also think if Patrick Mahomes has a lead

919
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 1: and he has the ball with four minutes left, they

920
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: win that game. They don't give the ball up, and

921
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: I don't think the Bills can stop them. So that's

922
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 1: why I like the Chiefs. I'm really excited about our

923
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 1: futures conversation because right now, the Eagles have the shortest

924
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: odds and the Chiefs have the second shortest odds, and

925
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,839
Speaker 1: so when we are talking about this on Thursday, I'm

926
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: excited to get into this a little bit more deeply.

927
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:07,720
Speaker 1: I do have concerns. I have big, big concerns about

928
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Would you like to hear some of them?

929
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 2: I love to hear so.

930
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 1: All right, So the Chiefs running game not nearly explosive

931
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 1: as the Ravens, and that's how the Chiefs got themselves

932
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: or the Ravens got themselves back into the game against

933
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: the Bills because I do think that rush defense was

934
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 1: a little bit exploitable. Concern or not concerned for you?

935
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: Not concerned?

936
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: How come?

937
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 2: I think Houston is like a legit, like top five defense,

938
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:47,760
Speaker 2: especially against the run. The Bills are bottom of the barrel.

939
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 2: They're just they're undersized. This is an undersized team. And

940
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 2: I think Matt mullane might miss this game as well.

941
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that Ravens game chat,

942
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 2: he was he was the changer. Yeah, he was big

943
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 2: time and and he basically didn't play the final three

944
00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: snaps of that game because of an injury. So you know,

945
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 2: mcdermot's been shut mouth about it, but just reading between

946
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 2: the lines, it seems like he is going to miss

947
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 2: that switch. To me, the defense that can't afford to

948
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: lose someone who's poorting him and against the Chiefs team

949
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 2: like this, it's going to be deadly for matchups for offensively.

950
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: Also might be missing wrap in the secondary and they

951
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 1: might be down two actually two defensive backs, two starters.

952
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 1: So okay, thank you for that. Here was a great

953
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: you know this this conversation about Patrick Mahomes and the

954
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 1: flopping and the penalties, and we talked about it, like

955
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 1: I love grouchy Troy Aikman. He's become my favorite announcer.

956
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: I think his attitude and approach and honesty with everything.

957
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 1: He's just entered the fucket. I'm a Hall of Famer

958
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 1: and I'm Troy Ikman making eighteen million year. I don't

959
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 1: give a shit what I say anymore.

960
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: He's not Tony Kohneheiser, but he's good.

961
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: He's he's great though. He's great, So I at first

962
00:49:58,160 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 1: I was like, are the refs going to be cautious

963
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,720
Speaker 1: calling penalties on the homes giving the blowback this weekend?

964
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 1: Will they get a call from the league office? Do

965
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: you have any concerns about that? And then I have

966
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:10,879
Speaker 1: something I heard from on the Ryan Roscilla pod which

967
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: blew me away.

968
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 2: No, because even if you go, you don't watch it.

969
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 2: Like the thing I love about Troy against im mad

970
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 2: about was that that is when he slid in the

971
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 2: middle of the field and the two defenders hit above

972
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 2: his head and they flagged it right unnecessary roughness. They

973
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: flagged it because if those two dudes collide and meet

974
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 2: at Momes's head, the three peete is over. That dude

975
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: is concussed dead on the field. That's why they threw

976
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 2: that flag. Like they don't want it to be ended

977
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 2: because of a dirty hitter or an injury. They want

978
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 2: it to be ended because they lose a game. That

979
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 2: was the whole reason the reps were throwing those flags

980
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: to protect the guy. It's like, that's why I love

981
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 2: Troy Ikman losing a shit about It's like, Troy, you

982
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 2: probably could have played for five more years if they

983
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 2: would protect you the same way. Dude, Like it's just

984
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 2: he just like again, I know you love me. He

985
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 2: sounds like it just a bitter old man that's just

986
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 2: tired of how soft the league has gotten. But it's like,

987
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 2: we need this league to be soft. We all have

988
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 2: gone through seasons of backups. It is the worst ever

989
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 2: watching just terrible quarterback play in this league. So that's

990
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,320
Speaker 2: why they need to protect guys, especially a guy like Mahomes.

991
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, that that was, you know, the flop I

992
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 2: think was what really pissed him off, which everyone online

993
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 2: got pissed off about. But that wasn't even flagged. So again,

994
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: people think that Chiefs got all these flags when you

995
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 2: probably break it down it's probably closer to fifty to

996
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: fifty than people realize. But I guess, you know, as fans,

997
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 2: we just get pissed off about this stuff. So yeah,

998
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 2: it's it's low hanging fruit. I'm with him, though, it

999
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 2: pisses me off to watching Mahomes get all these flags

1000
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: on Keith third downs.

1001
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 1: Well, for the record, Craigman's always been grumpy. I remember,

1002
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: you know, I've been a reporter for a long time.

1003
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:41,959
Speaker 1: You have with Sports Illustrated. I went down to SI

1004
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 1: in nineteen nine, to Dallas in nineteen ninety four. We

1005
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 1: did an entire week with the Cowboys. We had full access.

1006
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 1: We did an entire issue of Sports Illustrated about the

1007
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 1: week with the Cowboys. Me and Rick Tallender was the

1008
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 1: senior writer who was writing.

1009
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 2: Thirty Years of the Cowboys favorite time period.

1010
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was great, right. It was like the early nineties,

1011
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 1: and you knew exactly where to hang out, what clubs

1012
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 1: they were at, Like you'd go hang out. Oh my god,

1013
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 1: it was amazing, right. But I remember sitting with Aikman

1014
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 1: in the locker room, and this was when the NFL

1015
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: was changing a lot of the balls and sort of

1016
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 1: making quarterbacks use different balls, and he was in the

1017
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 1: locker room testing out a bag of balls, and just

1018
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 1: so a he's like this fucking league they keep trying

1019
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 1: to fuck think, like he was just so angry about

1020
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 1: having to use different balls. Like he clearly just can

1021
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,439
Speaker 1: be a grouchy guy, which I've come to appreciate, which

1022
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 1: is insane.

1023
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 2: Imagine imagine being that good looking, having the career he's had,

1024
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,279
Speaker 2: and then being grouchy. Will never make sense.

1025
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 1: I fucking love it. Uh Risillo had a great stat.

1026
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,720
Speaker 1: Here's a trivia for you. The past two years, Kansas

1027
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: City opponents have been flagged for forty eight penalties in

1028
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:52,359
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter in ot of one score games. How

1029
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,800
Speaker 1: many have the Chiefs had in the same time period

1030
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: in the same circumstances.

1031
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 2: Like I said, fifty to fifty, it is forty seven, yeah,

1032
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,400
Speaker 2: right right right near it. So yeah, that's that's what

1033
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,839
Speaker 2: I mean. We're just we're stupid fans. I mean, let's

1034
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 2: be serious here. That's that's how we are. We we see,

1035
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 2: we see that they get the calls because it's in

1036
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: these big moments. But it's because the Chiefs are always

1037
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: playing in these big games, and you know, it's been

1038
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,919
Speaker 2: making the rounds today or yesterday. That Chris Jones flag

1039
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 2: against Tom Brady. You know that that was the last time,

1040
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 2: like you just said, the last time he lost this game.

1041
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: It was that game on a fourth down, Brady gets

1042
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,399
Speaker 2: an insane call, goes down, ties the game, or wins

1043
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:36,359
Speaker 2: the game in overtime. It's like, you know, they give

1044
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 2: the breaks to the guys. That's just how it is.

1045
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 2: He's always gonna get the calls because it's my homes.

1046
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 2: But you just broke it down. It's not as egregious

1047
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 2: as we make it out to be. But you know

1048
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: that's we talk on the time. The refs dictated all

1049
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 2: of these games, even that that Bills game, that ghost

1050
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 2: holding call. So Lamar has that pick the Bills of

1051
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 2: the ball, josh An has a perfect pass. There should

1052
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 2: be third and three. They called a ridiculous holding playing

1053
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 2: against the Bills. It wasn't even whold. You just smacked

1054
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: the guy's arms down. So instead of being second and three,

1055
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 2: it back to help to wherever it was second and nineteen,

1056
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 2: and then they went three and down and they punted it.

1057
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,839
Speaker 2: So now i'd hear everyone today say, well, that picked

1058
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:13,479
Speaker 2: name hurt Lamar, and it's like, yeah, because the refs

1059
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 2: made that call. So that's why. I mean, we talk

1060
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: all the time like you're gonna get your bad calls

1061
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 2: every game. And like most fans, I just I hate

1062
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, So no matter what, I'm gonna bitch about

1063
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 2: the flag. So that's just how it is.

1064
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 1: The Bills rush defense rush offense is insanely good right now.

1065
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 1: The best rush defense by success rate in the NFL

1066
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: this past year was the Broncos. They allowed successful rushes

1067
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 1: thirty three point six percent of the time. In the

1068
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 1: wild card game, the Bills had a fifty percent success rate,

1069
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 1: the best against the Broncos all season. The next week,

1070
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,760
Speaker 1: the second best rush defense by success rate was the Ravens.

1071
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 1: The Bills ran all over the Ravens fifty five point

1072
00:54:56,760 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: six percent success rate. Should I be concerned about the

1073
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 1: Bills dominating on the ground against the Kansas City Chiefs.

1074
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they obviously have a good run game,

1075
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 2: But it comes back to Spags. We trust Spags, don't we.

1076
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 2: I mean he's been good to us. So yeah, like

1077
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 2: you said, there's gonna be numbers that are gonna point

1078
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: to this Bill's team. But just overall, I just I

1079
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 2: can't get there because of the number. Brother, That's that

1080
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: to me. The same thing with the Bills last week.

1081
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 2: I told you it was like it's all about the

1082
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 2: number here. If I was getting a little more at

1083
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 2: anything gottter than plus two auto play, that came out

1084
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 2: to be the right idea. The same thing here. It's like,

1085
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: if you get Josh on a plus three, I'm happy

1086
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 2: to take a position on him, But anything below that,

1087
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 2: I just think, well, we just talked about it's an

1088
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 2: over valued team, and I don't want to get too

1089
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 2: sucked into the weeds with the numbers because we talked

1090
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 2: about it last year. Like the Chiefs, they do this

1091
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 2: to us like they have the twenty second ranked offense,

1092
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 2: whatever the hell it is, and then none of it

1093
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 2: makes sense. We know people, but we're living it like

1094
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 2: that's that's the toughest part here where coming into this one,

1095
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 2: I'm trying to find an angle to take Josh Allen

1096
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:09,919
Speaker 2: because I loved last week. I've loved this whole season

1097
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 2: with him, and I want him to break down the curse.

1098
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 2: Like we know the history here he's zero and three

1099
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:21,719
Speaker 2: against Mahomes and you know another funny part at another meme,

1100
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 2: I love that's going around is poor Josh Allen Bills fan.

1101
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:25,799
Speaker 2: Even if they win this game, they got to face

1102
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 2: an NFC East team in the super Bowl, no matter what.

1103
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 2: So he could slay a bunch of demons and dragons

1104
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 2: for this organization. He could get through, get over the hump,

1105
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 2: get through Mahomes and arrow ahead, and then take on

1106
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 2: an NFC East team to take them down as well.

1107
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 2: So I get the love and why again another thing

1108
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 2: in the media, everyone's talking Bill super Bowl. Everyone's picking

1109
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 2: them now, everyone's all in because we're all sick of

1110
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 2: this Chiefs team and Mahomes magic. But we know we're

1111
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:51,479
Speaker 2: getting great value here. How can we not take this number?

1112
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 2: One and a half? Is just so insane to me

1113
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 2: that we're actually still getting this number, Like you just said,

1114
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 2: I thought we'd come in today in to be two

1115
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 2: and I was gonna have to scramble find As Simon says,

1116
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 2: that's why I try to jump ahead of you and

1117
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 2: grab it, because I was like when you did some

1118
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,400
Speaker 2: anything in the Eagles game, like shit, Chad. Chad might

1119
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 2: be on the Chiefs here, but we agree, this is

1120
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 2: just it's too good of a number to pass on,

1121
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 2: right now, there's so much value on this number at

1122
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 2: this point. So yeah, it's it's tough because the heart,

1123
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: the heart wants the Bills. I think any fan with

1124
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 2: a soul wants the Bills in that fan base to

1125
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 2: get to the super Bowl and win it. But it's

1126
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 2: just a bad spot and this just doesn't feel like

1127
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:26,959
Speaker 2: the right team with Josh Allen, Like, eventually, I feel

1128
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 2: like you will get over the hump. I can't see

1129
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 2: it here, Like he just doesn't to me. He doesn't

1130
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 2: have the dogs around him. But like you said, it's

1131
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:34,919
Speaker 2: all laid out there. If they can run the ball

1132
00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 2: no turnovers with him, he has the ball last. Like

1133
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 2: you said, whoever is the ball last controls that clock, Chad,

1134
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 2: that's who's gonna win. And we know that bet in

1135
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 2: this game. That's why it is a coin flip game.

1136
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 2: And to me, that's why you need to take the

1137
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: value in the Chiefs the coin flip game. The value

1138
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 2: is on this team right now because it's under the

1139
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 2: two number of keys, So under the key number of two.

1140
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 2: If you're just being patient, you want to bet the Bills.

1141
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 2: I saw a late night a bunch of two twos

1142
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 2: and a half's popping, especially off. I think I'll get

1143
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 2: there by game time because I do think Chiefs money

1144
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 2: will come in eventually as this week goes along.

1145
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 1: Here as part of my training. I have no soul,

1146
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: so I don't I don't care if Josh Allen slays

1147
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 1: his demons. And I love Matt Mitchell to death and

1148
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 1: like his happiness is so important to me, and his

1149
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 1: happiness during our entire relationship, going back to when he

1150
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 1: was just a guy who listened to behind the Bets

1151
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: and emailed me when I was at ESPN, nothing has

1152
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 1: meant more to me outside of my family than his

1153
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: happiness and growth in his career. But I don't care

1154
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 1: if Josh Allen slays his demons. I think he's a

1155
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 1: lovely guy. I want the Chiefs. I want history, I

1156
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 1: want a threepeat, I want dominance. I want things that

1157
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 1: have never been done before. That's what I'm rooting for.

1158
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you.

1159
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 2: I'd just like to ask you something. How much is enough?

1160
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 1: Hey?

1161
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 3: Sorry, this is Matt the producer. I'm just interjecting after

1162
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 3: the fact the show's over. I'm just re listening to

1163
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 3: this and I heard that line from Chad. He wants

1164
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 3: to root for something that's never happened. He's rooting for history,

1165
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 3: and that is why he's choosing against the Buffalo Bells

1166
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 3: and for the Kansas City Chiefs to make the Super Bowl.

1167
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 3: It feels like a totally incoherent point of view and

1168
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 3: one of the most as nine arguments for batting or

1169
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 3: rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs.

1170
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 2: Here a win or lose.

1171
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 3: Bill's probably lose inconsequential to me in this regard, But

1172
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 3: I'm sorry that you guys heard that. Instead of cutting it,

1173
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 3: I'll just let this rebuttal speak for itself.

1174
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:56,320
Speaker 1: I like to root for teams to be historic, and

1175
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs can be historic, and I actually

1176
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 1: get to like rooting for them. Two better coach, much

1177
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: better defensive coordinator. I've got the best quarterback in a generation,

1178
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 1: the best tight end in a generation against the middle

1179
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: of the Bills d that can't stop anybody. Even when

1180
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: Matt Mulano was playing give me the Chiefs.

1181
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:20,479
Speaker 2: I didn't want to do too much of the numbers

1182
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: who we were running up against the time. But yeah,

1183
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 2: that's something we didn't get to it more on. But

1184
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 2: just the numbers against tight ends like you saw, Isaiah,

1185
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 2: I like you Mark Andrews. They felt like they're always

1186
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 2: open when Lamar could find them, And you think, we

1187
01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 2: really think it's going to change here against you know,

1188
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 2: arguably the greatest tight end it's ever played football and Kelsey.

1189
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:40,600
Speaker 2: So there are a lot of matchups that do favorite

1190
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 2: this Chiefs team, but you kind of nail to how

1191
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 2: the Bills can't pull off this upset. It really is

1192
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 2: all about that run game, ball control and Josh Allen

1193
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 2: and you know, we know Mahome is going to get

1194
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 2: his We also know they're gonna sputter. Like you said,

1195
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 2: they've been inconsistent offensively all season, running the ball and

1196
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 2: a lot of things. So there are ways for the

1197
01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 2: Bills to do it. But I am happy we're both

1198
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 2: at a greens here because it was no fun last

1199
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 2: week going against you and then having to buil you

1200
01:01:03,800 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: Sunday night for your love for Lamar. So I'm happy

1201
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:08,439
Speaker 2: we're both in love with us. Number on this Chiefs

1202
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 2: team in minus one and.

1203
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 1: A half Likely and Andrews. By the way, Isaiah Likely

1204
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:16,040
Speaker 1: and Mark Andrews against the Bills combined for nine catches

1205
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty nine yards in one touchdown and

1206
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews was wide open for a game time two

1207
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 1: point conversion. And you and I are in such a

1208
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 1: mind meld that I already had that stat.

1209
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 2: Love it.

1210
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 1: We searched it yesterday. All Right, We're going to dig

1211
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 1: in more on both these games on Thursday. Plus, we're

1212
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 1: gonna reveal the futures matchups bet that Simon and I

1213
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 1: both made before the season began, separate from each other,

1214
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 1: that we talked about on the show that is still

1215
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 1: in play, and so we're going to talk about some

1216
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 1: hedging strategies, and we will also talk about the Super

1217
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:53,680
Speaker 1: Bowl futures we like with the four remaining teams heading

1218
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 1: into conference championship weekend on Thursday. As a reminder, the

1219
01:01:58,680 --> 01:02:01,360
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1227
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1232
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,240
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action Network. You two page,

1233
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:45,919
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Thursday, talk our conference Championship best bets.

1234
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: In addition to Simon says an exact decision. Downloads from Spotify,

1235
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your POD's rate reviews, subscribe,

1236
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 1: leaves five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a

1237
01:02:55,120 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 1: gift until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you

1238
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:11,400
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

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