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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Playoffs. You're kidding me?

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Speaker 2: Playoffs? All right? Here we go, throwing spec I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: up to cats to.

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Speaker 1: See the most gamblers.

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Speaker 2: When they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 2: that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate Kabai and we are What's up everybody,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your

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Speaker 1: NFL Playoffs Divisional Round betting preview where we will talk

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Speaker 1: about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of course crack

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Speaker 1: open our weekly six pack of bets with the help

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Speaker 1: of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck. What is good?

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 1: Brother?

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Speaker 2: The highlighted the weekend is had a sick I one

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Speaker 2: prop I got my first NFL properly was sicky touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Just shits in that game and that you hit which

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Speaker 2: made up for a lot of heartbreak. The Raven should

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Speaker 2: have won and to lose in that fashion was absolutely brutal.

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Speaker 2: But har ball on the road and the playoffs comes

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Speaker 2: through again and then I have the Chargers money line

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Speaker 2: and they became the first team in the NFL history

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Speaker 2: to lose with a in the playoffs of the negati

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Speaker 2: five turnover margin no one's ever done, know what, the

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Speaker 2: negative four and blew a twenty seven nothing lead. And

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Speaker 2: then I was sitting there happy I have the money line,

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Speaker 2: and then Bosa you know, throws the tantrum and get

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Speaker 2: the two, and then I knew, I knew it was

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Speaker 2: pretty much over. But then the Chargers turned into the

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Speaker 2: Chargers again, and we're on to the divisional round, and

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, this is the best weekend of the

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Speaker 2: NFL season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, it was. It was quite an interesting Round one.

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Speaker 1: A lot of overs hit too, which was which was interesting.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on that really before we

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Speaker 1: jump in, because I know, you know, we talked about

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Speaker 1: for the season there are so many backup quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: then you had a couple of the normally reliable future

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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame quarterbacks not playing as well. But it

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Speaker 1: seemed like we get into the playoffs and the points

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Speaker 1: were just piling up. Do you think that's just due

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Speaker 1: to simply the kind of the better quality of teams,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the books were maybe using some of

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Speaker 1: the league averages from the entire regular season, or do

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Speaker 1: you think it was kind of more unique to just

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Speaker 1: last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there was probably some a little bit

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Speaker 2: of correction coming, you know, and the Jaguars Chargers game.

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Speaker 2: I actually had the under there with you, and I

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Speaker 2: would I would play that again. I mean there was

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Speaker 2: I mean in the first half there was like two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty total yards and forty points or something.

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Speaker 2: There was just short fields and fluke turnovers and muff punts,

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Speaker 2: and then you know, you get in the game state

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Speaker 2: where one team's trying to come back crazily, So there

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Speaker 2: could be something to that, for what it's worth, and

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Speaker 2: I think that we just we just did our draft

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Speaker 2: for our six pack, which you'll guide this episode a

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Speaker 2: few minutes ago, and we interestingly have note totals. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I would be a little I would maybe be a

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Speaker 2: little hesitant of the unders. Historically, for what it's worth,

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Speaker 2: this has been a there's been a dog ground. Wild

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Speaker 2: cards usually a favorite round. This has historically been a

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Speaker 2: dog ground. So we'll see how it plays out. But

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Speaker 2: excited to get into these games. And I hear a

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Speaker 2: lot of people always say the ones I hear people

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Speaker 2: say the one seed, like the one seed is such

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Speaker 2: an advantage as the buy that really has it hasn't

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Speaker 2: played out that way. Number one seeds are thirteen to

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Speaker 2: twenty five and one against the spread over the past

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Speaker 2: twenty years in this round when favored by less than

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Speaker 2: ten points eight twenty two and one against the spread

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Speaker 2: twenty six point seven percent. I'm sure we're going to

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Speaker 2: get into all that, but yeah, it's a sort of

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Speaker 2: be a dollground. We'll see if that plays out again.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's hard to distill ref trends, but with

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Speaker 2: the four refs here, we have four generally speaking, I

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Speaker 2: consider them slightly biased ref road refs and for different reasons.

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Speaker 2: So Vinovich is the goat. He never calls any penalties,

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Speaker 2: and he's doing forty nine ers Cowboys and he just

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Speaker 2: calls no penalties. Ever, so part of home field a

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Speaker 2: little bit, especially the playoffs, is like you might get

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Speaker 2: a call or two right just because of the home crowd.

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Speaker 2: He calls no penalties. I think he was the most

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Speaker 2: successful home road against the spread rough whatever small sample sizes.

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Speaker 2: The other three officials I hate, I hate them. At

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Speaker 2: least we don't have Boger, but we have cleat Sean

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Speaker 2: Hockyley who loves being the villain so road teams, road dogs.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's doing Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Sheffer's the

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Speaker 2: same way. They love being the villain and getting booed

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Speaker 2: and making calls on the home team. Just generally speaking.

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Speaker 2: This doesn't happen every week, and he's doing Bengals bills.

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Speaker 2: So it should be an interesting official weekend because you

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Speaker 2: have Bill Bennich who calls none, and then you have

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Speaker 2: these other three re us who are known is very

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Speaker 2: flag happy. So we'll see if the NFL told them

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Speaker 2: to stuff it this weekend. But something to keep your

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Speaker 2: eye on.

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Speaker 1: To Vedge not on convinced me because Chad, Chad loves

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Speaker 1: those rough friends.

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Speaker 2: So shout out, Chad, shout up. If you don't mention

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Speaker 2: Sean hocy Late is villain on the favorites, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be very upset. I know you didn't listen.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's jump into the division round six.

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Speaker 2: Pack thursdayper Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, another sweep for me, So seventy eight to

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Speaker 1: fifty five, first pick is me. I'm gonna start out

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Speaker 1: with a prop for this this week, and I'm going

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Speaker 1: Devin Singletary under forty three and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't so much have to do with the game

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Speaker 1: script in that I think Buffalo is going to lose

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Speaker 1: this game or anything like that, although it be a

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Speaker 1: close game. I know you have something on this on

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Speaker 1: this coming up. But really what I'm looking at with

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Speaker 1: with the prop like this, especially you know we record

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Speaker 1: this on Wednesday, is you know, this line is opening

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Speaker 1: as if Devon's military is still going to be the

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Speaker 1: lead back on running downs and that hasn't been the

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Speaker 1: case now for the last two weeks. And you look

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Speaker 1: at James Cook, and James Cook took a back seat

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Speaker 1: to Singletary in the passing game last week. Naim Heinz

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Speaker 1: also factored in but on rundowns. Singletary has been out

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Speaker 1: carried nine to seven in the game against New England

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Speaker 1: to close the season, and then last week he was

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Speaker 1: out carried twelve to ten. And this Cincinnati run defense

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Speaker 1: also has been very good with with DJ Reider back

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Speaker 1: in the lineup. You know, so he missed kind of

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Speaker 1: half a season, but they're number eleven in DVA overall

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Speaker 1: for the season with reader, whether readers in or out,

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Speaker 1: but with reader in their yards for carries about a

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Speaker 1: half yard lower allowed per game. So I think there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of things that kind of point to

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Speaker 1: Singletary not really playing a massive role on the ground

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Speaker 1: here against the Cincinnati Bengal team. I think the Bills

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Speaker 1: are going to have to throw the ball and want

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball against his team. And when they're not,

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Speaker 1: they're using the more explosive Cook when they're handing it

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Speaker 1: off and they're letting Singletary play up more of the

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Speaker 1: pass downs. You know, he's obviously a reliable pass blocker

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Speaker 1: and whatnot. It is the playoffs, and that was something

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Speaker 1: that Cook had struggled with to kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: in this rookie year. So going with Singletary under forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half rushing, I have this under forty

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Speaker 1: for an average, So the median for me here is

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Speaker 1: about in the mid thirties in terms of it rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: I just think that this is another one kind of

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Speaker 1: similar to the mix of one last week where we

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Speaker 1: talked about, you know, it wasn't necessarily anything to do

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Speaker 1: with the game script as a whole. I just think

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Speaker 1: the number is too high here, all right.

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Speaker 2: Well I'll build on that. So for my first pick

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Speaker 2: of the Divisional weekend six pack, I'm going with the

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Speaker 2: Buffalo minus five and a half at home gets Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 2: If you got you know, if you were able to

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Speaker 2: get under four grade, if you were to buy three,

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Speaker 2: that's gonna be. Now you're kind of a you're kind

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Speaker 2: of in a dead range now, So I would advise

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Speaker 2: hitting it. I don't think it's coming back down to

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Speaker 2: below four. Maybe it goes up to six. A lot

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Speaker 2: of sharp money on the bills here. I know the

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Speaker 2: Bengals are twenty and five. Against the spreader of their

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Speaker 2: past twenty five, they haven't. They've gone twenty one straight

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Speaker 2: games with Jamar Chason Lene have not losing by more

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Speaker 2: than a field goal. I think that changes this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I think the biggest difference. Let's go, let's go, you know,

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Speaker 2: unit by unit, and by the way, this Bengals team,

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Speaker 2: you know, they they've covered a lot of games, a

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Speaker 2: lot some of them in flukey, go back to the

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Speaker 2: Patriots game, the Bucks game. You know they haven't covered

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Speaker 2: the past two weeks against Ravens' backups who went up

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Speaker 2: and down the field against them, because I think that

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Speaker 2: ultimately this defense is overrated. If you look at who

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Speaker 2: they're the quarterbacks that they face this year, it's absolutely

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Speaker 2: a joke. I mean, just look in their division face

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Speaker 2: Mitch Bortles, Kenny Pickett, Anthony Brown, Tyler Huntley. In the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: you faced Kobe Brissett, who you got crushed by, and

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Speaker 2: then a rusty Deshaun Watson. That's your division quarterbacks. How

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Speaker 2: about Joe Flacco, Cooper rush Teddy Bridgewater after TWOA got hurt,

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Speaker 2: Andy Dalton, PJ. Walker. I mean, come on, nine of

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Speaker 2: their eighteen games are against quarterbacks that didn't either start

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Speaker 2: or finish the year as their team starting quarterback. So

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Speaker 2: I think that this defense that if you look at

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Speaker 2: a lot of the high variant stats, turnovers, red zone,

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Speaker 2: third down, I think they've been running a bit lucky.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and you hear about the other adjustments in

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Speaker 2: the second Halfleck good defensive coordinator, but let's slow the

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Speaker 2: brakes a little bit. A lot of it's on the

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks that they faced, and we just saw Tyler Huntley

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Speaker 2: and the Ravens impoverished receiver group answer with eighty r touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Drives whenever they needed to last week in Cincinnati on

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Speaker 2: the road. So I think this defense is a bit underrated.

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Speaker 2: Much bigger test now in Buffalo. Go to the offensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball. We know Burrow is great, we

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Speaker 2: know the receivers are great. Who's blocking for them? They're

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Speaker 2: now down three starting offensive lineman. It is a bad situation.

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Speaker 2: They could not do a thing in that second half.

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Speaker 2: They couldn't do any five step dropbacks. And now you're

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Speaker 2: playing a team that can get more pressure naturally than

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Speaker 2: the Ravens. You don't want to blitz Borrow. All good

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Speaker 2: thing is the Bills can get pressure and they don't

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Speaker 2: have to blitz. And if you look at who this

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Speaker 2: offensive line is projected to be, Jackson, Carmen, Volson, ted

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Speaker 2: Kaas who's good center? That's it, Max Sharping and an

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Speaker 2: energy at right tackle. I mean I was last week

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Speaker 2: one of the reasons I love the Ravens cause Kapa

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Speaker 2: was out and it showed all game. He was, you know,

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Speaker 2: in for seven hundred and twenty five passing plays during

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Speaker 2: the regular season, thirteenth most of any offensive lineman gave

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Speaker 2: up the second fewest pressures of any offensive lineman that

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Speaker 2: played more than six hundred STAPs. Now you're down, and

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Speaker 2: then you lose Jonah Williams and then you already lostle Collins.

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Speaker 2: Like it's it's a bad situation. You are back to

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Speaker 2: before square one, when this was your problem the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: You went out to address it, you did, and unfortunately

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Speaker 2: there's injuries here. I think that's gonna be the difference

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Speaker 2: in this game is Bar's gonna get sacked, He's not

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Speaker 2: gonna have time to go downfield, and you know, take

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Speaker 2: advantage of you know, there's some vulnerability still in this

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Speaker 2: Buffalo secondary because it's not all the way fully healthy

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Speaker 2: and they've had to deal with some injuries. So and

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Speaker 2: then let's go to this, you know, obviously home field.

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Speaker 2: And then let's go to special teams, where Bills arguably

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Speaker 2: have the best special teams in the NFL this year

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Speaker 2: and the Bengals were middling at best. So yeah, all

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Speaker 2: three phases, I think the Bills have the advantage here.

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Speaker 2: I agree with this sharp money that's coming in on Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: It's gone from three and a half to five and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's not the most the wildest move. It's

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Speaker 2: not like one and a half to four and a

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Speaker 2: half or something crossing the three. But I think ultimately

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Speaker 2: Buffalo wins this game by at least a touchdown. The

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Speaker 2: Bengals defense is overrated for the quarterbacks that they fade

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Speaker 2: the Bills. Also, their offense has been really unlucky with

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Speaker 2: turnovers if you look from an EPA perspective, Allen's got

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Speaker 2: to clean some of that stuff up with the fumbles

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Speaker 2: and some of the turnovers have been a little fluky

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Speaker 2: on the other side since he's been lucky in that department.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, the offensive line injuries here on the road especially,

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Speaker 2: I think that's ultimately the difference. Give me Buffalo here

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Speaker 2: laying the number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I was on Buffalo in that first

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Speaker 1: matchup on the road, so and you know, Buffalo was

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Speaker 1: kind of one team when I looked at it, I said, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this Buffalo team has an advantage over Cincinnati, just because

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Speaker 1: I felt like, you know, a lot of people would

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Speaker 1: look at Cincinnati and how they played the Chiefs, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of considered the class of the AFC aside from

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Speaker 1: the Bills. But I think the differences the Chiefs don't

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Speaker 1: have an offense offense and a defense that are you know,

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Speaker 1: top five, top six in the league and the Bills do,

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Speaker 1: and so I do think this Bengal team is going

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Speaker 1: to be kind of in for.

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Speaker 2: They also had offensive lineman before that game. Yeah the

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Speaker 2: way exactly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that, you know, that's obviously going to

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Speaker 1: be an issue in that you know, you don't get

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Speaker 1: that long return against the you know from from Hubbard there,

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Speaker 1: and that could be a completely different game.

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Speaker 2: So now it could be the game was over. The

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Speaker 2: Bengals offense wasn't doing anything entire second half score a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Now that game is lights out, Ravens are moving on.

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Speaker 2: They probably lose. They lose this week, but we would

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Speaker 2: bet them again and cover again with the road Ravens.

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Speaker 2: But at least they got the cover. I thought after

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Speaker 2: that was gonna but they weren't even gonna cover, And

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Speaker 2: I was like, this would be the worst way to

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Speaker 2: not cover over a touchdown. I think I can ever

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Speaker 2: imagine in the playoffs, but I think the Bengals are

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Speaker 2: going down there. The offensive they did one five step

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Speaker 2: dropback the entire second half. They did I think like

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Speaker 2: six of the first step got sacked on. I think

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Speaker 2: three of them. He had no time, which takes away

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Speaker 2: your biggest strength, which is your outside receivers. I think

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be really tough for Sins, and it's

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Speaker 2: a shame because they that offensive line is one thing

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Speaker 2: they tried to address. Sometimes injuries happen. Trust me, I'm

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Speaker 2: a fucking Ravens fan. Happened to us the last two years.

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Speaker 2: I get it. Our producer will be actually happy now

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Speaker 2: that I picked the Bisters to play the Buffalo fight

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Speaker 2: song here and let's circle the wagons, Let's go.

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Speaker 1: Let's go. The films make me wanna all right. For

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Speaker 1: my second pick and the third overall of the divisional

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Speaker 1: round six pack, I'm going with Saquon bark Wee over

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Speaker 1: twenty two and a half receiving yards at fan Duel,

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Speaker 1: the official sponsor of the Action Network podcast. And the

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Speaker 1: reason I'm going over with Barkie here is twofold number one.

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Speaker 1: You have the Giants matching up now instead of going

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings defense. That it's a sieve pretty much

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Speaker 1: all over the field. I mean, Daniel Jones probably played

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Speaker 1: a perfect game outside of you know, a couple of

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Speaker 1: plays on that last drive and in one sack which

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't even know if it was his fault.

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Speaker 1: It was like a more a coverage sack to me.

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Speaker 1: But now you face the Phildelphi Eagles defense. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: be ready for the Giants. And what do the Eagles

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Speaker 1: have that The Vikings don't have excellent cornerbacks on the outside.

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Speaker 1: So Isaiah Hodgens, great game against the Vikings, don't think

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Speaker 1: that'll be there the same way against slay and Bradbury

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Speaker 1: Darius Slayton, great game against the Vikings. Don't think that'll

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Speaker 1: be there the same Now the Giants have played a

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Speaker 1: little more of two tight end sets against that Vikings game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that continues a ton here, but.

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Speaker 2: Also might be able to take advantage of the slot

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Speaker 2: because it doesn't look like Maddox is going to play.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. You know, they

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Speaker 1: played more two tight ends, so that the only thing

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Speaker 1: that kind of you know, gets me off a guy

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Speaker 1: like maybe Richie James, And you know, maybe later in

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Speaker 1: the week I'll have more of a definitive view on this,

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Speaker 1: but right now have to be a little more conservative

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Speaker 1: with James because he dropped to a sixty eight percent

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Speaker 1: route participation six percent excuse me, route participation rate last

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Speaker 1: week where Lawrence Cager, the number two tight end, really

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Speaker 1: the number four tight end, but number two pass catching

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Speaker 1: tight end, came out of nowhere to play on thirty

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Speaker 1: percent of the dropbacks. Now does that continue? Was that

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Speaker 1: a game playing specific thing? I don't know, but that's

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Speaker 1: the only reason why I think early in the week

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Speaker 1: you don't want to just hammer it over when you

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Speaker 1: don't have when you don't have that kind of one,

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Speaker 1: when you have that kind of uncertainty. So you know,

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Speaker 1: check back later in the week, check the Action Network cap.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'll have something one on James as well. But

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Speaker 1: I do think what you could see here is more

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Speaker 1: dump offs to Sakuon Barkley and Sekuon Barkley in that

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Speaker 1: first game and the only game he played against Philly

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Speaker 1: because he sat out the second one, but he played

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Speaker 1: in the first one. He was banged up, but he

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Speaker 1: had twenty yards on just seven routes run. He was

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Speaker 1: targeted on eight twenty nine percent of his routes in

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Speaker 1: that game, and he played He ran a route on

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Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the dropbacks last week for the Giants.

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Speaker 1: So this is the playoffs. Now, Barkley is essentially running

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Speaker 1: out in every play. Sometimes they're even using two bats

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Speaker 1: on the field at the same time. If they do that,

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Speaker 1: I think Matt Brito will be the one to block,

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Speaker 1: because you really want to get Barkley out in a

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Speaker 1: route on every single play. If you're the New York

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Speaker 1: Giants in this game, I think that's going to be

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Speaker 1: powermount and Barkley fifty six yards on six targets in

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Speaker 1: the game against Minnesota, so I think you can kind

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Speaker 1: of see that he's kind of stepped it up in

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Speaker 1: this kind of is a little more gamesprip proof than

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Speaker 1: looking at his rushing. You know, even though the Eagles

348
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,639
Speaker 1: have been that's kind of been there, the weakness compared

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Speaker 1: you know, they're obviously much better against the past. But

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Speaker 1: you know, last week we saw Barkley nine carries, six

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Speaker 1: targets in a game where the Giants weren't really down

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Speaker 1: by any significant margin all game. So I think that

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Speaker 1: kind of continues this week. I think Barkley is going

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Speaker 1: to be a major factor in the pass game for

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Speaker 1: the g Men. So give me Saquon over twenty two

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But Eagles Runde though, has been a lot better

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Speaker 2: with Jordan Davis in the lineup, and yeah, interesting game.

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Speaker 2: I don't mind that prop at all. Interesting game from

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Speaker 2: a spread perspective. For what it's worth, I mean, the

361
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Speaker 2: Eagles will be the twenty first deal here. It's hard

362
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Speaker 2: to beat a team three times fart noise, but Eagles

363
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Speaker 2: will be the twenty first team in the world called

364
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Speaker 2: error since nineteen ninety to face an opponent a third

365
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Speaker 2: time after a straight up sweep in the regal season.

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Speaker 2: Those teams are thirteen and seven straight up, ten to

367
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Speaker 2: nine to one against the spread. No real angle to

368
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Speaker 2: angle there. The Giants, they just find ways to cover

369
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Speaker 2: on the road. He've been over this million times as

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Speaker 2: a road dog. Daniel Jones has been amazing. I mean,

371
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Speaker 2: he's twenty seven and fifteen against the spread, the road

372
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Speaker 2: dog under nine points. He's been automatic. The Giants as

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Speaker 2: a underdog over the they were eleven and two against

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Speaker 2: the spread this year. That's the best underdog against the

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Speaker 2: spread mark over the past twenty years. Dave All, who's

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Speaker 2: been amazing. And he's just look, I mean, Daniel Jones

377
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 2: isn't reinventing like, he's not throwing it deep. He's like

378
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Speaker 2: fortieth and big time throw rate fortieth and averaged deft

379
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Speaker 2: of target. But it's all Davil the play calling and

380
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Speaker 2: Daniels trouts isn't making mistakes and is making all the throws,

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Speaker 2: and the offense is amazing. And Davil's also four and

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Speaker 2: zer against the spread when facing a team at the

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Speaker 2: second time this year, including last week against Minnesota. That

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Speaker 2: speaks to that great coaching staff. But in a way,

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Speaker 2: I feel like the Phillies just being a little bit

386
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Speaker 2: disrespected here for what they did all year. I mean,

387
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Speaker 2: this is a team that didn't lose all season with

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Speaker 2: Hurts and Davis in the lineup at when they were

389
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Speaker 2: both in the game. This is the team that beat

390
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Speaker 2: the Giants by almost thirty and it's just a bad

391
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 2: matter for the Giants defense. I mean, the Giants defense

392
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Speaker 2: is bad. We got to remember that. I know, Dori

393
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Speaker 2: Jackson is back and they're getting pressure and they're front

394
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Speaker 2: seven and Dibodoh's playing better and Bartin Dale can dial

395
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: up some pressure, but their rundees really bad. Their linebackers

396
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,160
Speaker 2: are awful, and the Giants defense is so much better

397
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Speaker 2: when they can play dime, which the Eagles aren't gonna

398
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Speaker 2: let them because they'll just run it right down their

399
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Speaker 2: throats the entire game, which Miles Sanders did in the

400
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: first beating, and then all of a sudden, your throat.

401
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 2: You know, you could throw to the tight ends, and

402
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: then you can put their dns in conflict with hurts

403
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 2: in the option game. So it's just hard for me

404
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: to see how this Giants team is going to come

405
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: up with stops other than you got to hold them

406
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 2: the field goals, and then you got to hope that

407
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 2: Dabill calls a really good game. I don't know, so

408
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Speaker 2: it wouldn't shock me at the Giants. A divisional game,

409
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Speaker 2: the Giants find a way to cover here. It's where

410
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Speaker 2: teams with over seventy five percent win percentages favorites are

411
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Speaker 2: fifteen and thirty against the spread in the division run

412
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Speaker 2: of the past twenty years, which obviously would fit the Eagles.

413
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Speaker 2: So I don't have any play here. I would lean

414
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Speaker 2: Eagles just because from a matchup perspective, they're also coming

415
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Speaker 2: off of a bye to be a little healthier, and

416
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Speaker 2: Lane Johnson not enough people are talking about how important

417
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Speaker 2: he is, So yeah, I think it's just a bad

418
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Speaker 2: matchup for the Giants, and I'm not sure they'll be

419
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 2: able to keep up if the Eagles jump out in front. Here,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure if you have any opinions on the

421
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Speaker 2: game itself. I know you lean Giants.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I lean Giants just because I watched

423
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Speaker 1: this team and they're just so well coached. Now. I

424
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 1: know the Eagles, you know they had that they had

425
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Speaker 1: a lot of success in that first game, Uh, you

426
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Speaker 1: know against the Giants, and that's obviously an issue. But uh,

427
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Speaker 1: this Giants team I think is a live dog. I

428
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Speaker 1: may end up playing them. The line is still seven

429
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Speaker 1: and a half, so I think it's still a good number.

430
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,479
Speaker 1: But you know, this Giants team they have they have

431
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 1: a pass rush coming together. Now you know they're they're

432
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 1: playing against tight ends. Really that that worries me against

433
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 1: the kind of gotter, but you know, they have a

434
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: pass rush, they're well coached. They have a quarterback just

435
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: like the one on the Eagles, who can go off script,

436
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: make things happen off script. So third matchup, divisional game,

437
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 1: the Eagles do have a rest advantge in preparation advantage,

438
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: but I do think the Giants are are not just

439
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: you know, live to cover, but a live dog to

440
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 1: win the game. Anyone they face in these playoffs, So

441
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: I'll probably I do wan Giants. But at the same time,

442
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: I kind of I get it with the Eagles. You know,

443
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: it's they're they're kind of sitting pretty now. They did

444
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: what they had to do to secure that one seed,

445
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: So so you know, I don't I don't just necessarily

446
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: disagree with with people that are gonna go to the

447
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 1: Eagles way, but I don't think seven and a half

448
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: is a great number to do that with the Eagles.

449
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: I think, you know, if this starts going, you know, seven,

450
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: six and a half, I think that's you know, that's

451
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 1: where you probably ideal you'd have. You want the Eagles

452
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 1: at six, because again, I just think this Giant team

453
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: is so pest game. We you know, we saw it,

454
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 1: you know, getting the playoffs and you know, weird things

455
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 1: start happening. You know, we saw it in that Buffalo

456
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 1: Miami game. You know, it's you could be the better

457
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: team and the other team could just kind of hang around.

458
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 1: We saw it for a half in the San Francisco game.

459
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 1: Seattle kind of had a meltdown in the second half.

460
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: But I look at those kind of games that you

461
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 1: looked at Baltimore, you know Baltimore third time playing them,

462
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 1: hung around, like you said, should have won that game.

463
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: So I'm not counting the Giants out. And seven and

464
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: a half is a lot of points. And as you mentioned,

465
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 1: all the trends really are most of the trends. You know,

466
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: as far as you know, division round support the New

467
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: York Giants. You know, you have the dogs, you know,

468
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: opening a field goal to ten and a half sixty

469
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 1: three percent, division around Doug coming up a win of

470
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: are we seven? They're sixty one percent? So there's a

471
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: lot of things kind of pointing to the g men.

472
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: So I would lean that way, but I haven't made

473
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: a play yet.

474
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: You know, here's what my God is saying, though, It's like,

475
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 2: because I think the line is, it's it's pretty fair,

476
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 2: is that everyone has now started to disrespect the Eagles,

477
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: the Giants. Everyone's kind of you know there now they're

478
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: everyone's darling. If ten wins on nine come by one possession,

479
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: who do they beat? I mean, their schedule was so easy,

480
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 2: they won so many games on one possession, and now

481
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: we see them beat the most fraudulent and everyone knew

482
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 2: they were a fraud and then they showed themselves to

483
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 2: be a fraud with the Vikings. Are we going a

484
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: little too far with the Giants and Dable love? Maybe?

485
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 2: But all they do is cover in this in this spot.

486
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: Just seven and a half is a tough number, you know,

487
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,239
Speaker 1: to back a favorite. You know, it's kind of it's

488
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: one of those numbers where if I really like the

489
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: favorite seven and a half, I'd probably maybe by the

490
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: seven or stay away.

491
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 2: So Eagles are a good tease piece too, all right.

492
00:23:55,920 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth over of the

493
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: divisional round six pack, I'm going to go with the

494
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys plus three and a half at San Francisco

495
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. By the way, I make this line

496
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 2: under three. I love what I saw from Dak Prescott.

497
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 2: He needed that game. That game can propel him to

498
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: the Cowboys going to the super Bowl now, and I

499
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 2: think they're going to carry that momentum over against the

500
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 2: San Francisco defense that has shown cracks and they haven't

501
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 2: played anybody all year. If you look at schedule adjusted

502
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 2: who they've played, it's been a joke. I mean, just

503
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: look at their division. Their secondary is shown cracks at

504
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 2: the time. I think Dallas can take advantage. I think

505
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: Dallas's defense with the pressure that they can generate and

506
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: the you know, they're new pieces on the back end

507
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: starting to play a little better. They've adjusted to some

508
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 2: of the offensive line issues. But this is also just okay,

509
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 2: I need brock Prota to show it to me again.

510
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 2: I mean, we saw, we saw the Raiders, we saw

511
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 2: the Seahawks for a half. This this forty nine ers

512
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 2: back end of the defense. If you're a competent enough

513
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: quarterback and they haven't faced many, I think can make

514
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: some plays here. And here's something I went to bounce

515
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 2: before I share a few other thoughts in this game.

516
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: For the for the first time since nineteen ninety seven,

517
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: we have three teams in the same division in this

518
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 2: round in the NFC East. The NFC East is thirty

519
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 2: and sixteen against the spread and non divisional games. That's

520
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 2: the best division obviously against the spread mark for any

521
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 2: division this year, and the best for the NFC East

522
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 2: in three decades. So are we underrating the entire NFC

523
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 2: East as a whole for I mean, when you look

524
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: at it, like, Okay, maybe Washington wasn't as bad as

525
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 2: we thought, and we saw what Dallas just goes down

526
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: and did to Tampa. You know, the Giants go on

527
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 2: the road and handle their business against Venison. The NFC

528
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: East might just be underrated as a whole, but I'll

529
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 2: gladly take over a field goal here. I get that,

530
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 2: you know, you have a short rest here and you're

531
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: playing your fourth straight road game, which isn't great, and

532
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: you're going across the country. I understand that, but I

533
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 2: just think that this, this Dallas defense and the pressure

534
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: that they can generate can force Purty into some mistakes here.

535
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 2: I think that their offense can carry them a meno

536
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 2: from last week against the defense. You know, this is

537
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 2: what I look for in playoffs. Lines are really efficient.

538
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 2: It's okay what unit is either undervalued or overvalued, and

539
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 2: I think in this case it might be the San

540
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 2: Francisco defense. Overall, we said they're just elite, and I

541
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 2: think they're you know, top three defense. But I think

542
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: that there's more cracks there than we, including myself, have

543
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 2: been leading on. And it's just because of the schedule

544
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: they face, the quarterbacks that they face, the game scripts

545
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 2: that they're in. They usually like the blow open a

546
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: game and then it's really easy for that pass rush

547
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: and the secondary. I don't think that's going to be

548
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 2: the case here. I think Dallas is really live and

549
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 2: I'll gladly take over a field goal here. It's all

550
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: I wanted. I make this like now, I haven't fully

551
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 2: adjusted still from pert from Jimmy G to perty, so

552
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: I'm I'm at like these two teams are basically even.

553
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: So I'm at like one nine to two, right around

554
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 2: two points just for the situation short rest. But yeah,

555
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 2: I love what I saw from Dallas last week, and

556
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 2: I think that they can give San Francisco some trouble

557
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 2: in a number of different areas. So give me the

558
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: Cowboys plus three and a half. What are your thoughts here?

559
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Cowboys getting the hook is the right

560
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: side because and I was skeptical about the Cowboys. You know,

561
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 1: I had a good week, uh you know, in the

562
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: playoffs for this first round, but my biggest misfire was

563
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: taking the Bucks on Monday night. And you know, I

564
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: looked at the Cowboys and I just thought this this

565
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: pass offense in particular not kind of not really playing well.

566
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 1: And I thought the Bucks, a healthy Bucks defense had

567
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: enough there to kind of to kind of slow them down.

568
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 1: That obviously wasn't the case. You know, never mind the

569
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 1: Bucks offense and their struggles, but uh, you know, now

570
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: San Francisco, I mean, the red Flags are even as

571
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: great as San Francisco has been, and they've been amazing

572
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: the red Flags as they are facing a team like

573
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: Daplas number one. You know, we've see first of all,

574
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: you know, I'm kind of looking at the San Francisco

575
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 1: defense and you know, and some of my metrics, you know,

576
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: you know, I know, they're they're tops in a lot

577
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: of metrics. For the season, they're near the top of

578
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 1: the league, but you know, down the stretch, they did

579
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: have some some weird things, even with guys healthy, you know,

580
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: I mean that that Raider game was was a little yeah,

581
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 1: and so so for the season. You know, some of

582
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: my PA you know, because I also schedule address, you

583
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: know their numbers and you know, some of my house

584
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: defense metrics for the Niners aren't aren't great. You know,

585
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: they're they're they're they're solid, They're a little bit above average,

586
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: but they're not super elite. And that works me because

587
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: now you're kind of back in Bucks territory, you know, so, uh,

588
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: it's not like the San Francisco forty nine ers. You know,

589
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: they played the Saturday game, Cowboys played Monday, so there's

590
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: a little bit of arrest advantage there. But I don't

591
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: think it's going to be massive here. So it's not

592
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: the Niners haven't had a buy and they're preparing for

593
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: you know, two three weeks or anything like that. And

594
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: then on the other side, you're gonna get party against

595
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: the most pressure he's seen all season, most likely. So

596
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: you know, he had a pretty shaky half in the

597
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: first round, and then he went ham in the second half,

598
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: like made some of the best players I've seen from

599
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: a quarterback all year.

600
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 2: So but he's also playing against a horrendous, horrendous, horrendous defense, right.

601
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: And and that. But that's the thing. It's like, he's

602
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: obviously capable of doing of doing great things, and you

603
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: know you're gonna need to make off script plays, you're

604
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: gonna need to scramble against this cowboy. But at the

605
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 1: same time, it's just he just hasn't seen this kind

606
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: of pressure, this quality of pressure all year. So I

607
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: think the red flags are there. I think Dallas is

608
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: always gonna be in they should be in games. I

609
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: don't know what that was against Washington. You know, maybe

610
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: they were just like, hey, you know, let's let's just

611
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 1: get ready for the Bucks, and that obviously work right.

612
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: You know, they came out and hammered the Bucks from

613
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: start to finish pretty much. So I look at that hook,

614
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: I say, Dallas is the right side.

615
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 2: I just played a four. There's a four out there, Took. Yeah,

616
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 2: we're gonna have it, Fandel right now. I just played

617
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: a four. The four popped up, so it looks like

618
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: there was a little bit of stand fram money. I

619
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,719
Speaker 2: think this is a close game throughout. I think it's

620
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: a field goal game. Uh Summer all Madden vibes, classic

621
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: nineties nostalgia throwback game that goes right down to the wire,

622
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: sort of like the game last year in the playoffs.

623
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: And if you want a couple of other trends to

624
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: add here, And by the way, Dak was amazing last week.

625
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 2: You twenty eight point seven epa seventh most in the

626
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: single playoff game since nineteen ninety nine. But teams win

627
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: by double digits in the wildcard round as underdogs sixty

628
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: three percent over the past thirty years, So you know,

629
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 2: the signals that you can carry over that at them.

630
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: They don't get overvalued. Also, you can dogs that take money.

631
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 2: Generally you don't want to too carried away with this,

632
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: but underdogs that come down in the line in this

633
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: round or seventy three percent against the spread over the

634
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: past twenty years, and teams that have won ten or

635
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: more games in a row, which the forty nine ers

636
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: have in the division round or later one in thirteen

637
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: against the spread, fall the cover by eight points per game,

638
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 2: and then the forty nine ers are we're in that

639
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: perfect They had forty plus points, five hundred plus yards

640
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 2: last week in a playoff game the week after you

641
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: do that. No one's ever covered ohen six against the

642
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 2: spread since nineteen seventy. But I ultimately think, yeah, those

643
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: are more for fun. I make this under a field goal,

644
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: and I think this is a field goal game, close

645
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: to out. Happily take the four with the Cowboys, who

646
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: I have a sneaky suspicion they might when this came

647
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 2: down after what I saw last week, But we shall see,

648
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 2: all right.

649
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,959
Speaker 1: For my third and final pick, the fifth overall of

650
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: the Divisional round six pack, I am going with Jude

651
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: ju Smith Schuster over fifty one and a half receiving

652
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: yards at Fandul, the official sponsor of the Action Network

653
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: NFL podcast. And I thought about the Jags for this game,

654
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 1: and obviously I think they're the right side here. Chiefs

655
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: just have trouble covering big numbers. But I look at

656
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: the matchup for Juju here and I really think that

657
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: this is a game where he clears his receiving yardage.

658
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: So the Jaguars played the sixth most zone coverage in

659
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: the league, and Smith Schuster averages two point two yards

660
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: per route against zone coverage that is twelfth in the

661
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: league among ninety three qualified wide receivers according to PFF.

662
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: And you look at okay, well, the Jaguars wind up

663
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: tray Hern usually in the slot at corner, and you say, okay, well,

664
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: maybe they switch it up, maybe they want to go

665
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: more man. Well, then you're gonna have Herndon, who is

666
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: one hundredth of one to twenty qualified cornerbacks in PFF

667
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 1: grade this year, just over fifty five is his grade.

668
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: And that's who you would have to put on Smith

669
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: Schuster most of the time. I don't know if you're

670
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: going to you know, double Vice or double Smith Schuster

671
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: in any meaningful way, because you have to worry about

672
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: Travis Kelce first and foremost if you're the Jacksonville Jaguars,

673
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 1: and oh hey, the Jaguars finished number thirty two, dead

674
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: last in DVOA against tight end, So I think that

675
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: is going to be kind of the focus of the matchup.

676
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: If anyone gets doubled, it's gonna be Kelsey, not Juju,

677
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: and that's only going to open more things up for Judrew.

678
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: Then you have the fact that for most of the season,

679
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: Judrew's kind of been they've kind of been holding him

680
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 1: back a little bit. They have he hasn't really played

681
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 1: a bunch of games where you know, he's he's run

682
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: in a route you know, ninety percent of the time

683
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: or anything like that. He started to near the end

684
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: of the year, and so I think, you know, in

685
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: this game, you know, he had a stretch from week

686
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: fourteen to sixteen where he ran a route on at

687
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 1: least eighty six percent of the dropbacks in each game.

688
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see him up there more so

689
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: than his season average, which is seventy seven percent. So uh,

690
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,959
Speaker 1: you know, in the playoffs generally play your best players

691
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 1: more so that bumps him up a little bit as well.

692
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 1: And you just factor all those different things in, and

693
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: I think this is a great number for Juju here,

694
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 1: And you look at his game ones and he had

695
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: two games. One game where he got hurt and left

696
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: after thirty eight percent of the snaps with a concussion,

697
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: and then he came back. In his first game back him,

698
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 1: we played thirty eight percent of snap So if you

699
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: throw those two out, he's played fourteen games where he's

700
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: played pretty much the full game, and he's gone over

701
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: fifty one and seven to fourteen. But and that's just

702
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. But the thing is, you know, if

703
00:34:57,800 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: it's a plus matchup and you think you kind of

704
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: agree with me here, you can feel confident betting this

705
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: number even as it increases, because in seven of his

706
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 1: fourteen games he's gotten seventy four yards are more, and

707
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 1: then in the other seven in which he didn't, you know,

708
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,959
Speaker 1: go over the line of fifty one and a half,

709
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: he's gotten forty six or fewer. So there's a big

710
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 1: kind of gap where it's either a Juju game or

711
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: it's not a Juju game. And again, zone coverage probably

712
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: have to double Kelsey bad slot corner if you do

713
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: go to man coverage all these things point and the

714
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: fact that the playoffs increase snaps all put to the

715
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 1: fact that it is going to be a Juju game,

716
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: and that's where you usually see him, you know, catching

717
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: at least five balls, getting at least seventy seventy yards

718
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 1: on the game. So I'm going Juju Smith Schuster over

719
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half receiving yards here against the

720
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: j jag damp And just by the way, Jaguars also

721
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 1: much better run defense than pass defense, So we know

722
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: the Chiefs love to throw the ball. Don't think they're

723
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: going to come out super run heavy year. Even if

724
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: they get a lead here, I don't think they can

725
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: necessarily going to go you know, heavy run or anything

726
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 1: like that. So I think Juju short passing game should

727
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 1: be a way for them to move the ball regardless

728
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: of Juju over fifty one a half.

729
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:19,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the interesting game in that Andy Reid in Kansas

730
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 2: City by the Unders, Unders are fifty four to thirty

731
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 2: eight and one when they're seven point favorites or higher

732
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: thirty one fourteen and one. We talk about that all

733
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: the time. They kind of just get their lead and

734
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 2: then they're not fel great at covering these numbers. I

735
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 2: mean mahomes at home under five hundred against the spread,

736
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 2: mahomes over a field goal favorite under five hundred against

737
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 2: spread when he's on the road, or a favorite of

738
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 2: three or under or dog, he's automatic. But they just

739
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: struggle covering this number. Although it is interesting that they

740
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: are coming off a bye and Andy Reid I think

741
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 2: is twenty one and thirteen against the spread off of

742
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 2: a bye, looking to go to their fifth consecutive conference

743
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 2: championship game against the Jaguars, team that just made miraculous comeback.

744
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: I think teams that were negative for more turn of

745
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 2: a differential zer and eighty five. I've straight up in

746
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: the playoffs before last week, so they have a buy

747
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 2: rest advantage, prep advantage for a team that's good off

748
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: the bye at home. And they were minus ten at

749
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 2: home against the Jags. I don't know a two months

750
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: ago when they you know, they covered. There was some

751
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: Jags miss some field goals, but I had the Jags

752
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: plus ten in that game. The Jags are recovered on

753
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 2: side kick. They won the turnable battle three to zero,

754
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 2: and they still lost by ten. That's the first game

755
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 2: that a team had a plus three turnover differential and

756
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 2: lost by double digits since twenty eighteen, not only the fourth,

757
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 2: it's only having four times since twenty tens. That's a

758
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 2: little concerning because if you look at this Jags, you know,

759
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 2: I mentioned the total course, so I kind of lean under.

760
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 2: But I'm like the Chiefs gonna come out and throw

761
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: it a lot. But these aren't two explosive offenses. They're

762
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 2: both familiar with each other. You both you know, Peterson

763
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: and Reid, They're both like horizontal offenses. They already faced

764
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 2: each other earlier this year. You're gonna see a lot

765
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 2: of screens. You're gonna see like it's all like, let's

766
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 2: get yak and but the Jaguars secondor could be in

767
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: a lot of trouble here. And the Jaguars offense is

768
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 2: obviously playing a lot better than it was at that

769
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 2: time when they played Kansas City. They're also getting a

770
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 2: lot more pressure. Steves Spacnol is gonna have some interesting

771
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: concepts on defense. Lawrence struggles with disguises, certain coverages. The

772
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: charters had a great game plan. He was lost early

773
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 2: in that game. It does take him some time to

774
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: get going. I also think if the Chiefs get down

775
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 2: in this game, fire on the Chiefs live. The Homes

776
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: can go down the field whenever he wants to against

777
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 2: this defense, if it's if they're trailing. Kansas City got

778
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 2: a lot of pressure up the middle in that first game.

779
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 2: They sacked Lawrence five times and I think four. He

780
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: gets the ball so quick two point nine seconds in

781
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 2: that game. But they were getting a ton of pressure

782
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 2: up the middle, which was really effective in that game.

783
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 2: So we'll see. I think it's gonna be a lot

784
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 2: of screens to try and counteract that, and then there's

785
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of dump downs, which brings me

786
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: to my third play in the sixth overall of the

787
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: Divisional round six pack. I'm gonna go to traves etn

788
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 2: over seventeen and a half receiving yards. He didn't go

789
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 2: over this number last week, but I still think this

790
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 2: is too low. Last week, he played sixty four out

791
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: of seventy four snaps. He was in the backfield for

792
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 2: fifty eight. He played in the slot. They put him

793
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 2: in the slot five times. They even put him out wide ones.

794
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 2: He ran forty routes on the fifty two drop backs

795
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 2: and so but he only had one catch for twelve yards.

796
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 2: But he's basically playing every step. I remember a couple

797
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: weeks ago we were like, oh, he's getting his snaps

798
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: shared with whoever, I forget his name, But that's not

799
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 2: happened now.

800
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: And als the playoffs like Hasty, Hasty, Hasty only ran

801
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: eight routes. Yeah, last game. So yeah, it was about

802
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 1: an eighty twenty split in favor of ETN, which bodes

803
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: well because it had kind of gotten down to close

804
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: to fifty to fifty over the last few games of

805
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: the regular season.

806
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now you're going up against the Chiefs defense

807
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 2: that struggles against short passes, that struggles covering running backs,

808
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 2: and I I think that this sets up for a

809
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: lot of screens. And I think that you're even going

810
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: to see him. You're you're going to see him like

811
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: they put him in the slot five times and out

812
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: wide once. I think you might see again six or

813
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: seven total routes combined in the slot or maybe out

814
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 2: wide here, just to get him a ball in space.

815
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 2: And then if you look at his season stats, when

816
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: he wasn't even playing as many steps as I think

817
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 2: that he will in this game on a game by

818
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: game basis, you know, he went over he had at

819
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 2: least seventeen yards in eleven of seventeen games. He removed

820
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 2: the Baltimore game where he got hurt early. I hit

821
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 2: three for twenty eight against the Chiefs in the first meeting.

822
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: Chiefs bottom five in the league covering running backs in

823
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: the passing game. I expect him out there a ton.

824
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 2: I expect him, you know, the game script. They should

825
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 2: be trailing. I think that there's going to be some

826
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 2: design plays for him, some screens and some dump downs.

827
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: I think there's a really good chance he gets this

828
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 2: on one catch at some point during the game. So, yeah,

829
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: I really like travesy tan over seventeen and a half yards.

830
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm actually pissed I didn't pick the etn

831
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 1: over because I'm looking at the ETA over and I

832
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: have about about nine yards of value on that one.

833
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: I have them at twenty six because you know, again

834
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 1: you have to adjust for the amount of routes that.

835
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 2: I did a good. I did a good prop Yeah,

836
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: you did good, you did good.

837
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: I will be betting that one very shortly after we

838
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 1: get off the pod.

839
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would. I would look, if I had

840
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 2: to bet this game, I'll go under for the total.

841
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: I think that large might likely to make a couple

842
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: of mistakes. Now you hope that they don't lead to

843
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 2: like short fields. I think, you know, if that could

844
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 2: just kill your under right away. But if like he

845
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 2: does it in the red zone. Neither of these teams

846
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 2: are really explosive, and like I think that the Chiefs

847
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 2: are going to try to make him throw it on

848
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: the sideline where he's not as strong and kind of

849
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: take away these horizontal pass easier. So they've done The

850
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 2: Chiefs aren't really good at that. But so but it

851
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: all takes is these teams. You know it's gonna be

852
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be longer drives. You get a

853
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: turnover field goal here. It's it's tough to get over

854
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: a number like this in fifty two. There's a reason

855
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, I don't know if you saw this. Did

856
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: you see the Chiefs request for the AFC Championship game

857
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: in the NFL? I did so. It was denied, but

858
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 2: they request they put in a special request in the

859
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 2: NFL saying that we want to play if they play

860
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: the Bills in the NC Championship game, they want to

861
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 2: play on grass. I think is which I think is

862
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: smart because the Chiefs. This isn't Tyree kill Chiefs. They're

863
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 2: not as explosive as the Bills, and the Bills on

864
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 2: that i'd rather if I was the Chiefs, there's not

865
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 2: I don't think i'd go this far. But in a

866
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 2: way he might be better off playing in Buffalo over Atlanta,

867
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: depending on the conditions. Obviously I would still choose Atlanta,

868
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 2: but it's there's a reason that they said, can we

869
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: play on grass? Now they also play on grass, but

870
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: that's more conducive of the Bills. But I think that

871
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: there'll be longer drives. There's not going to be a

872
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 2: ton of like explosive passing plays. I feel like, I

873
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 2: think it's just going to be a lot of like

874
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 2: execution and down the field takes some time, and if

875
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,439
Speaker 2: you're not getting touchdowns on a consistent basis to cap

876
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,839
Speaker 2: off those drives, you're not going over fifty two.

877
00:42:58,680 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true.

878
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 2: It's yeah, it's just unless like some team goes way

879
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 2: up like last Yeah. Yeah, that's that's the fear the.

880
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: Jag and the Jaguars kind of do have those games.

881
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: I mean, they've have quite a few of those games

882
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: where it's just you know, it kind of devolves into

883
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 1: just a shootout because of that.

884
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, if the Jags go way up, this game

885
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 2: is going way over. So like then you're so. I

886
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 2: I ultimately stayed away from the total, but it got

887
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 2: up to fifty three and I was like, man, that's

888
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 2: a little too high. But I'm getting involved in no

889
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: totals this week, all right?

890
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: To recap our Divisional round six pack, Stuck is going

891
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: with the Bills minus five and a half against the Bengals,

892
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: the Cowboys plus three and a half at the forty

893
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: nine ers, and Travis Etn over seventeen and a half

894
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: receiving yards. I'm going with Devin Singletary under forty three

895
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards, Saquon Barkley over twenty two

896
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yard, and Juju Smith Schuster over

897
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half receiving yards. Now it's time

898
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: for the division Round coaches peptock.

899
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: You are not losers, You don't suck all right.

900
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 1: This week's coaches Peptalk comes to us courtesy of doctor

901
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 1: Ian Malcolm from the nineteen ninety three film Jurassic Park.

902
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:26,439
Speaker 3: John, the kind of control you're attempting is it's not possible. Listen,

903
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,760
Speaker 3: if there's one thing the history of evolution has tossed

904
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 3: that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, It

905
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 3: expands in your territories, and it crashes through barriers painfully,

906
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 3: maybe even dangerously.

907
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 2: But life finds a way.

908
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 1: And who dedicating this one too? Stuck?

909
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: Life always finds a way. Well, I'm tired of everything

910
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: always finding a way for the Bengals, so we're dedicating

911
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: to this to the Buffalo Bills. Let's end these fumble

912
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 2: shenanigans inside the ten Stevenson with the Patriots, the fake

913
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 2: pond for the Bucks. The Ravens died at the one.

914
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: His falls right in their hands and goes one hundred yards.

915
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 2: I'm tired of everything finding a way for the Bengals,

916
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 2: so we're dedicating to this to the Bills. It's time

917
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 2: for that turnover luck to find a way for Buffalo.

918
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 2: Let's circle the wagons.

919
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 1: All right, and let's close it out with our money

920
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: line underdog parley.

921
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

922
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

923
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 1: All right. Stuck, Oh for two last week for us?

924
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: Where we going for the division round?

925
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? I wouldn't go crazy, and these lines are efficient.

926
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: It's tough, it's four games to choose from, but I

927
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 2: do think there's value the sign Obviously, I took them

928
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 2: as an underdog and loved what I saw last week. Now,

929
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 2: I mean, now, Dak, what's Dak's like a fifty five

930
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: year old man. Now, if you look at the quarterbacks

931
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 2: in these playoffs, he's somebody's twenty nine. That's the oldest

932
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,720
Speaker 2: by probably a wide margin. So quarterback experience, the pressure

933
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: Dallas defense and that San Francisco secondary, which I think

934
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: has holes, it's gonna attack. Let's go Cowboys here. Yeah,

935
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 2: the NFC east Man, It's just all they do is cover.

936
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. And speaking of which, I'll go with the Giants

937
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 1: plus two ninety against the Eagles again. I just think

938
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: this Giant team they can find a way to win.

939
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: They're gonna need a couple of lucky breaks, but I

940
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be in it, and I think their

941
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: pass rush is coming on. I think they're healthier on

942
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 1: defense than they have been. There's familiarity there, but their

943
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: defense played reasonably well in that final game of the

944
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: season against the Eagles starters. So give me the g Men.

945
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 2: Plus key to the whole game is just first quarter

946
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: like Giants with with Stanle, the storm, the crowd, and

947
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 2: then if you can do that, are you You're not.

948
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 2: You don't want to be playing from behind against this

949
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 2: Philly team and their their pressure. But if you can

950
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 2: do that, all the pressure will shift, uh monumentally on

951
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 2: the road and then you can be the loose team

952
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: in the second half and then anything can happen.

953
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: So you put that together plus one fifty four for

954
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 1: the boys and plus two ninety four the g men,

955
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 1: and you get you win eight ninety one hundred dollar bets.

956
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 1: So pretty juicy moneyline underdog Carlock. All right, So that's

957
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: going to wrap it for the divisional round. Action Network

958
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: hod as a quick reminder of subscription to Action Pro

959
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 1: is how you get the most out of Actions Award

960
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 1: winning app, and right now Action is offering a Pro

961
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: subscription at forty percent off. This is only being offered

962
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 1: during the NFL playoffs, so if you don't already have Pro,

963
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 1: now is the best time to subscribe and unlock all

964
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: the best features of the Action app. You can find

965
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: Stucky on Twitter at Stucky Too. You can find me

966
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 1: at Chris Raybond, and you can find us at those

967
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 1: same handles on the free, award winning Action Network app.

968
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: If you sure to check out actionnetwork dot com or

969
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: the app for all of our betting content. Until next time,

970
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 1: let's get fish money fuck the Bangels.

971
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

972
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

973
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

974
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 1: hundred gambler