Speaker 1: Hey, We've got Aaron Gleaming from The Athletic, also from
Speaker 1: the Smoking Hot Gleaming and The Geek podcast joining us
Speaker 1: right now to talk twins. Aaron, great to have you
Speaker 1: on and we've been waiting for this moment to cover
Speaker 1: the Chris Paddock trade to the Tigers. We love a
Speaker 1: good al Central trade. So how you doing and what
Speaker 1: did you think of the deal?
Speaker 2: I'm just glad I didn't wear a hat backwards or
Speaker 2: forwards for this, and I have no writing in the
Speaker 2: background here for me, so I think I'm safe and
Speaker 2: that aj I think you look good and I'm jealous
Speaker 2: of your hair, so however you want to wear it on?
Speaker 3: Gleam it? What is that thing behind you?
Speaker 4: Like?
Speaker 3: My eyes are bad?
Speaker 5: Now's today?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 2: I might have got yourself in It's a It's like
Speaker 2: a cow.
Speaker 3: What is that like? Morrise code.
Speaker 2: This is a man using his girlfriend's office and has
Speaker 2: no idea what the artwork is so and maybe likely
Speaker 2: afraid to comment on it because she might hear this later.
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna sit this one out.
Speaker 3: There's a picture of you. Is that you two over
Speaker 3: your shots? Because you would never have that in your office?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't have an office. Yeah, true love.
Speaker 3: Yes, all right, So here's the question, what are the
Speaker 3: twins gonna do? I already asked him a question. He
Speaker 3: didn't answer my next question.
Speaker 2: No, I mean I was dodging. I was dodging the question.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see pretty much. That was the
Speaker 2: start of I think what they're gonna do, which is
Speaker 2: Paddock is one of or one was one of six
Speaker 2: impending for agents that they had. I think he was probably,
Speaker 2: you know, third or fourth most valuable in that group.
Speaker 2: You know, Harrison Bader, Willie Castro, Danny cool Ohm, and
Speaker 2: then Paddock they traded, and then they also have Christian
Speaker 2: Vasquez at catcher and then Ty France. You know, I
Speaker 2: think they're still sort of in the wild card mix.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're playoff odds are like ten or fifteen percent.
Speaker 2: But I think the Paddock deal, doing it so early
Speaker 2: in the week, three days out from the deadline, I
Speaker 2: think signals they're gonna trade all of the impending for
Speaker 2: agents that they can get some kind of value for.
Speaker 2: And you know, not that Paddock had Hue value or anything,
Speaker 2: but they dumped a bunch of salary. I think four
Speaker 2: and a half million, which I know that doesn't really
Speaker 2: mean anything except to the pole AADs the owners, but
Speaker 2: I think that was part of the equation with that trade.
Speaker 2: And then they got a catching prospect back who seems
Speaker 2: like a decent nineteen year old catcher prospect from the Tigers.
Speaker 2: But I would expect kind of that to be the
Speaker 2: first step with a bunch of very similar moves the
Speaker 2: rest of the rest of the next couple of days.
Speaker 3: So are we talking Duran, are we talking Jacks? Are
Speaker 3: we talking Castro? Or are we talking who? I mean?
Speaker 6: Are they going to go all in and just dismantle
Speaker 6: and start over? And then if they do do that,
Speaker 6: how does Carlos Korea feel about that? Byron Buckson feel
Speaker 6: about that? Because these guys signed these long term deals
Speaker 6: and now they're kind of stuck.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I wouldn't rule out them
Speaker 2: trading Doran Jacks somebody like that, even maybe Brock Stewart
Speaker 2: relievers who have two or three more years of team control.
Speaker 2: But I think they're in a position where they would
Speaker 2: need to kind of be blown away to accept one
Speaker 2: of those offers. I'm not saying they wouldn't do it
Speaker 2: or that that might not happen, but I think they're focused.
Speaker 2: He's gonna be you mentioned Castrow. I think he's definitely
Speaker 2: gonna be traded. I think Harrison Bader is definitely gonna
Speaker 2: get traded. I think they'll probably find a small deal
Speaker 2: for Danny Coulom, who can just be a second lefty,
Speaker 2: and some contenders bullpen if they get blown away in
Speaker 2: a offer for a non impending free agent like some
Speaker 2: of the names you mentioned, I do think they're somewhat
Speaker 2: open to it. But then the other thing, we couldn't
Speaker 2: Every time I'm on we talk ownership to some degree
Speaker 2: with the Twins, and I think the uncertainty of we're
Speaker 2: now nine or ten months in to the Twins having
Speaker 2: the team for sale and they haven't actually sold it,
Speaker 2: it's difficult, I think for the front office to know
Speaker 2: what their future is.
Speaker 4: So to trade somebody who has.
Speaker 2: A is a very good player like Jacks or Doron,
Speaker 2: but also his team controlled not just this season, not
Speaker 2: just next season, but twenty twenty seven, I think that
Speaker 2: is a big leap for a front office and an
Speaker 2: ownership group that is sort of in flux right now.
Speaker 5: Does that give not no hope because they're still exciting players,
Speaker 5: but Twins fans like, oh great, we're just gonna get
Speaker 5: a bunch of six, six more one year rentals offseason
Speaker 5: because there's no ownership drive or motivation or even direction.
Speaker 5: If that's how this trade deadline goes. To me, if
Speaker 5: I were Twins fans, I would be more excited if
Speaker 5: we got rid of a Griffin Jacks because of the return,
Speaker 5: because of what that could potentially be. But it could
Speaker 5: be another missing trade deadline or missing off season because
Speaker 5: ownership situation just is still in flux.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, all that is definitely true. I agree
Speaker 2: with all that, and I mean it is a very
Speaker 2: frustrating low morale time last couple of years, basically since
Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty three for Twins fans, payroll
Speaker 2: got cut, team has been underwhelming, all sorts of that stuff.
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, You know, I do think that it
Speaker 2: is viable if you get a great offer, especially for
Speaker 2: a relief pitcher. I mean, we know even the best
Speaker 2: relievers sometimes have a pretty short shelf life, you know,
Speaker 2: they kind of burn bright, fade away a little bit.
Speaker 2: And if you can get multiple building block type of
Speaker 2: young players for a reliever, even if they are a
Speaker 2: reliever with two more years of team control. I do
Speaker 2: think that's something you can consider. But also, if I'm
Speaker 2: this front office and I don't know that I'm even
Speaker 2: going to be around next year, let alone twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 2: because first of all, if new owners come in at
Speaker 2: some point, which obviously Twins fans are hoping for, they
Speaker 2: might bring in their own people to begin with. That
Speaker 2: happens a lot, and regardless of that, the Twins are
Speaker 2: about to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in
Speaker 2: five years, So I think it's fair to question the
Speaker 2: performance of this regime anyway, which has been in place
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen. So I definitely agree that depending on
Speaker 2: the quality of the offers you're getting, and the fact
Speaker 2: that Class A just got taken off the market too,
Speaker 2: could potentially lead to bigger and better offers for Deron
Speaker 2: and Jackson and Stuart from the Twins perspective, so I
Speaker 2: definitely think they're smart to listen, and for that matter,
Speaker 2: if you want to listen on Joe Ryan too. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm not against listening, like, let someone try to go
Speaker 2: crazy and make you an offer, but I do think
Speaker 2: that the front office might feel like, do we want
Speaker 2: to enter into another rebuild or even a you know,
Speaker 2: step back, where it's not going to be good here
Speaker 2: for a couple of years. Where are they going to
Speaker 2: be here in a couple of years. What who's even
Speaker 2: going to own the team in a couple of years.
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Speaker 3: Derek Falvey's in charge, he's been in charge. They lost
Speaker 3: that levine.
Speaker 6: But how handcuffed are they? How much are their hands
Speaker 6: tied by this ownership. I don't want to call it
Speaker 6: a problem, but ownership selling. We're not selling. We might
Speaker 6: sell if we sell. Joe Pollott still has to be
Speaker 6: part of the ownership group. Like, how handcuffed is Derek
Speaker 6: Falve with this team in the payroll and the trades
Speaker 6: he's actually allowed to make.
Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen you mentioned it the last two
Speaker 2: deadlines when they were in a position to be buyers,
Speaker 2: like clear buyers. I think two years ago they were
Speaker 2: in first place at the deadline. Last year they were
Speaker 2: in the first wild card. Their playoff odds at the
Speaker 2: deadline in the past couple years were like seventy something percent.
Speaker 2: Now it's ten percent. And they didn't do anything. I mean,
Speaker 2: they brought in like a middle reliever each time and
Speaker 2: then ended up cutting that guy before the end of
Speaker 2: the season. And I think a lot of that was
Speaker 2: their overall lack of aggression as a front office but
Speaker 2: it gets also back to what you just said, which
Speaker 2: is they didn't have any money to add anybody, and
Speaker 2: any deal they were going to have to make in
Speaker 2: the last two years would have to involve the selling
Speaker 2: team eating a bunch of money, which is going to
Speaker 2: cost you more prospects from the Twins point of view,
Speaker 2: or would have to involve money coming in and money
Speaker 2: going out major league from major league deal, which that's
Speaker 2: a very tough needle to threat all the time. I
Speaker 2: think this time around, any trade they make is going
Speaker 2: to be shedding money. They already shed four and a
Speaker 2: half million with the Paddock deal because they included Randy
Speaker 2: Dobnick's contract in there too. You know, if they end
Speaker 2: up trading the three or four other names that I mentioned, Castro, Bator, Koulom,
Speaker 2: et cetera, that's they're going to shed over ten million dollars.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: Am I confident that money will ever be reinvested in
Speaker 2: the team on the field.
Speaker 4: Absolutely not.
Speaker 2: I've been covering the Twins way too long to know that,
Speaker 2: But you know, it is, I think a factor.
Speaker 4: But then the thing you have.
Speaker 2: To worry about, would they get better prospects, Let's say,
Speaker 2: for Chris Paddock, and I think they got a decent
Speaker 2: prospect in Rique Amenez is a decent prospect. But could
Speaker 2: they got could they have gotten a higher level of
Speaker 2: prospect or maybe a second decent prospect if they would
Speaker 2: have eaten four and a half million dollars or three
Speaker 2: million dollars in that deal instead of having the Tigers
Speaker 2: take it all on. And so I think that's another
Speaker 2: example of Yes, the payroll has been slash since twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three. Yes, the front office's hands are tied, but
Speaker 2: even in a selling position, not you know, trying to
Speaker 2: maximize the money saved could hurt the return you're getting
Speaker 2: on some of these deals.
Speaker 5: As the All Start game Byron Buckston absolutely squashed any
Speaker 5: any decisions or talk about getting traded. He said, I
Speaker 5: have a no trade class. I love Minnesota. Is that
Speaker 5: good for the Twins? Is that good? Yes? Oh man,
Speaker 5: I get to keep my jersey for another you know,
Speaker 5: count of years. But you also sit there and you go,
Speaker 5: Byron Buxton, you kind of want to go somewhere that
Speaker 5: you know, may want to be investing in the team
Speaker 5: or is it just a it's just just a hey,
Speaker 5: that's neat Midwest Baseball Pool we get to keep Byron Buxton.
Speaker 4: There's a little of that.
Speaker 2: I will tell you that probably, like many flyover states,
Speaker 2: the people of Minnesota, and I'm a lifelong Minnesota little
Speaker 2: chip on everybody's shoulder because stars often leave here. Very
Speaker 2: rarely do non home to going stars talk the way
Speaker 2: that you just describe Buckston talking how he said Minnesota's home.
Speaker 2: I don't want to leave. I want to retire here,
Speaker 2: on and on. And he didn't just say that the
Speaker 2: All Star Game. He's been very consistent about that since
Speaker 2: he signed his extension a few years ago and demanded
Speaker 2: a no trade clause. Not because you know some players
Speaker 2: get a no trade clause and they figure, well, I
Speaker 2: can get a little more money or leverage out of
Speaker 2: this if the time comes that they want to trade me.
Speaker 2: I think Buckston just got it. He doesn't want to
Speaker 2: go anywhere. He's got three kids and a wife. They
Speaker 2: like it here. He's comfortable with the Twins. They drafted him,
Speaker 2: they developed them, and yes, could he get traded to
Speaker 2: a contending team and maybe make a playoff run this year. Sure,
Speaker 2: But also, if you're a Twins fan, you want the
Speaker 2: players to believe it's not ten years away, right, Like,
Speaker 2: no matter how bad this season has been and how
Speaker 2: frustrating last season's collapse was, you do want Buston to
Speaker 2: believe deep down we could make a run at it
Speaker 2: next year. We can make a run out of it
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty seven. And I do think they have
Speaker 2: some of the pieces in place, which is why you know,
Speaker 2: trading Joe Ryan or trading Deron is a tougher decision
Speaker 2: than it would be I think for a lot of
Speaker 2: selling teams. But in general, I think it's a good
Speaker 2: thing for the people of Minnesota to have a superstar
Speaker 2: player who is a good dude and a good player
Speaker 2: on the field, who actually enjoys being here and is
Speaker 2: making it clear he wants to be here. And I
Speaker 2: know everyone will go well, but they could trade Buxton
Speaker 2: and they could get some massive haul.
Speaker 4: Okay, you get two prospects, maybe five years.
Speaker 2: From now, one of them is half as good as
Speaker 2: Byron Buckston. Like, I do think there's a little bit
Speaker 2: of a myth of a rebuild, and I mean the
Speaker 2: Twins have gone through rebuilds where you come out after
Speaker 2: five years of being terrible, you win a couple of
Speaker 2: division titles and then that's all you get, that's sort
Speaker 2: of where they're at now. So I think in general,
Speaker 2: I like the comments Buxton said, and it's also just
Speaker 2: consistent with what he said the last two or three years.
Speaker 3: Oh, I just want to stop you there. I came
Speaker 3: up with the Twins. I never wanted to leave.
Speaker 6: There was a lot of guys that were that I
Speaker 6: came up with that didn't want to leave, and they
Speaker 6: either got traded away or pushed out. So I don't
Speaker 6: I don't agree with kind what you just said. Like,
Speaker 6: there's a lot of people that I played with the
Speaker 6: Minnesota that wanted to stay there their whole career. Like
Speaker 6: I was traded, you know, Mikhayevich, he wanted to stay,
Speaker 6: he was traded. There's a ton of guys Tory Hunter
Speaker 6: left is a free agent. He got paid and they
Speaker 6: were never gonna pay him. But there was a lot
Speaker 6: of guys, trust me, that wanted to stay. I loved
Speaker 6: my time in Minnesota, So don't just say like, no,
Speaker 6: I love but there.
Speaker 2: I think that's a good point actually, because he got paid,
Speaker 2: Like he got a six year, ninety million total one
Speaker 2: hundred million total, because he had one more year of
Speaker 2: arbitration and at the time, he was even more injured
Speaker 2: than he's been the.
Speaker 4: Last couple of years.
Speaker 2: So he took sort of a fifteen million dollars a year,
Speaker 2: which is not all star level money, but there was
Speaker 2: the injury risk built in there, and so that is
Speaker 2: one of the biggest extensions the Twins have ever given out.
Speaker 2: And like you said, you had plenty of very good
Speaker 2: young players who were in position to get extensions in
Speaker 2: the early to mid you know, two thousands, and the
Speaker 2: Twins just really didn't spend any money at that point.
Speaker 2: And they don't spend now, but they really didn't spend
Speaker 2: back then. And so I definitely see what you're saying
Speaker 2: that a lot of Twins stars or borderlines our players
Speaker 2: were traded away in past years. They had no choice.
Speaker 2: He's one of the few that's gotten paid. And I think,
Speaker 2: you know, if this was a past regime or he
Speaker 2: came up with you at the time, like you said,
Speaker 2: when Tory Hunter, you know, he probably would.
Speaker 4: Have left already for free agency.
Speaker 2: And I think it's it's a little bit of a
Speaker 2: different situation just because he did actually get the extension
Speaker 2: that a lot of guys on the teams that you're
Speaker 2: talking about which was a much more successful era and
Speaker 2: had all kinds of homegrown star guys. But they didn't
Speaker 2: really pay anybody, including you know, Tory Hunter, including Johann Santana,
Speaker 2: all kinds of.
Speaker 3: Kadaire more.
Speaker 1: No, they all walked away, right, Yeah, they kind of
Speaker 1: let where Chees go.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one they let Artis go for nothing, because.
Speaker 2: Two million, two million bucks is what they would have
Speaker 2: had to pay David Ortis for the season that they
Speaker 2: cut him.
Speaker 4: That is even for the twins. That's not much.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not like they couldn't afford him, they just didn't.
Speaker 3: Well anyway, they thought they had other guys coming. They
Speaker 3: didn't like it was one of them. And also they
Speaker 3: didn't love back then, they didn't love Hunter. Strikeout.
Speaker 6: David struck out all right, right, so they we didn't
Speaker 6: love that. We were told, you know, you don't strike
Speaker 6: out one hundred times. Well, now one hundred strikeouts is
Speaker 6: a great year.
Speaker 4: For most of the guys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, you only struck out one hundred times. You're
Speaker 3: you're Luisa Rise, he's a contact.
Speaker 1: Yes, seriously, game has changed, all right, So I'll finish
Speaker 1: the way we started. What are the Tigers getting in
Speaker 1: Chris Paddock because apparently some other insiders were saying that
Speaker 1: teams like the Rays were in on Paddock. That's according
Speaker 1: to John Hayman. All of that one's kind of interesting
Speaker 1: because I thought the Rays are selling, but maybe they're
Speaker 1: buying in selling. Bob Nightingale said the Yankees were pursuing him,
Speaker 1: so clearly some teams were into Paddock. And he's always
Speaker 1: had that potential, but this year's A five is gr
Speaker 1: really bad in his last eight starts, A lot of homers.
Speaker 4: What was going on? I think you're definitely right.
Speaker 2: I was told that they had a handful of teams interested,
Speaker 2: which is how they ended up dumping the whole salary
Speaker 2: and getting a decent prospect back. You know, I think
Speaker 2: I've watched a lot of Chris Paddock over the last
Speaker 2: three or four years, and the description you gave is right, Like,
Speaker 2: there are starts where you watch him and the fastball
Speaker 2: is ninety five plus consistently, and the changeup is good,
Speaker 2: and he's he's pounced the strike zone and he controls
Speaker 2: the game and you talk to him afterward and he
Speaker 2: says all the right things and you go, Wow, this
Speaker 2: guy is really in control of what's going on, and
Speaker 2: I want to bet on him having a next you know,
Speaker 2: five starts going really well and then the next start
Speaker 2: he gives up eight runs. And I think this year
Speaker 2: what we saw that's even different than the frustrating aspects
Speaker 2: from past years. Strikeout rate went way down. I mean,
Speaker 2: when he came up with the Pandres, he was a
Speaker 2: change up pitcher whose fastball wasn't that good, but he
Speaker 2: got such swing and miss with his change up. Now
Speaker 2: he's basically a four seam guy and works off that
Speaker 2: and his change up in breaking ball don't even get
Speaker 2: swings and misses. It's it's been a really weird kind
Speaker 2: of comeback post second Tommy John surgery, the pitcher he's
Speaker 2: turned into. But I think from the Tigers point of view,
Speaker 2: I know they lost reeese Olsen for the season, so
Speaker 2: I'm sure they figured, can we just sort of inexpensively
Speaker 2: in terms of prospect capital fill the fourth or fifth
Speaker 2: spot in this rotation, because they got to figure he's
Speaker 2: not going to start a playoff game for them, but
Speaker 2: they got to get to the playoffs. They can't exult
Speaker 2: lost their bullpen. And I do think, you know, every
Speaker 2: fifth day trying to get him through five innings is
Speaker 2: going to be a better bet, just from a veteran
Speaker 2: this standpoint, strike throwing standpoint, than maybe some random triple
Speaker 2: A guy or some even lower wattage trade they can make.
Speaker 2: But I would be surprised if he had a big
Speaker 2: impact for the Tigers, although I will say I'm a
Speaker 2: little bit intrigued by the idea that they could move
Speaker 2: him to the bullpen down the stretch, maybe at preparation
Speaker 2: for a multienning role in the playoffs, because when he
Speaker 2: first came back from the second Timmy John in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, the Twins did that for a handful of
Speaker 2: appearances in September, and he was throwing upper nineties borderline
Speaker 2: one hundred at that point. So I do think, you know,
Speaker 2: fourth or fifth starter for now and then maybe shift
Speaker 2: to the bullpen in October could be somewhat intriguing for them.
Speaker 1: I don't hate that maybe the strikeouts tick up for
Speaker 1: him there and also the Tiger because I know he's
Speaker 1: got the click career low k rate this year, but
Speaker 1: the Tigers need swing and miss out of their bullpen,
Speaker 1: so maybe they catch fire there and make them a
Speaker 1: different pitcher for October. If he's into it. Good stuff, Aaron.
Speaker 1: Good to catch up with you man. Thanks for the time.
Speaker 1: Uh congratulations you survived.
Speaker 4: A J.
Speaker 1: Perzinski.
Speaker 2: Let's just hope no one else but us. Here's your
Speaker 2: review of the artwork before me or I may be
Speaker 2: banned from the show, but always good to talk to
Speaker 2: you guys.
Speaker 1: Thank you, you guys, your girls. Like so, I was
Speaker 1: listening to FT again today and.
Speaker 4: Thanks.
Speaker 1: I appreciate you man.
Speaker 4: See you boys,