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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All Right, here we go

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Speaker 1: fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty.

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Speaker 2: Five fifty and the Chicks block College Football World started us.

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Speaker 1: Good Bye, Oh my goodness, please stumbled and Football Collateral

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Speaker 1: Turn tire of the episode Genius The lad.

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Speaker 3: Table off the.

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Speaker 1: Day of the night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the side on the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 3: it's the sage of the fights in the All.

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Speaker 1: Wold talk to General Nation. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the week eleven college football betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 1: stucky and with me as always, is Colin Wilson. Look,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe it's November. We have college playoff rankings

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Speaker 1: that talk about we have huge games that are going

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Speaker 1: to affect the college football playoff rankings next weekend, the

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Speaker 1: College Wall Playoff. We're going to get to all of that,

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Speaker 1: but first let me bring in Colum. What's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 1: Live from Vegas?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, live from Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: Taking a look at Greaters New Stadium. It's almost you know,

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Speaker 2: they're putting up the wall is going to be completely built,

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Speaker 2: And the only thing I could think of is like,

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Speaker 2: I love how the Vegas Bowl just booted the Mountain

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Speaker 2: West out signed a deal to get an SEC or

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Speaker 2: Big ten team in What a hot bowl that's going

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Speaker 2: to because and I wonder if they're going to move

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Speaker 2: the timing too, because usually it's the first weekend we're

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Speaker 2: all the RNL Carriers Bowl, the Dollar General Bowl. I

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Speaker 2: wonder if they're going to keep the Vegas Bowl as early,

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Speaker 2: the early signing period that they have, and just the

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Speaker 2: timing of it. I wonder if they're gonna move Vegas

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Speaker 2: Ball to the end of bowl season because it's just

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Speaker 2: going to be such a mega premiere.

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Speaker 1: Let's first talk about college football playoff rankings before we

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Speaker 1: get in to a lot of the games. Ohio State

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Speaker 1: number one. I think the well deserved number one. The one

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Speaker 1: thing I don't like about that is that on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: just an aesthetics thing, we won't see Alabama versus LSU

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Speaker 1: one verse two. Well you might, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: they show the EP or note, but it's two verse

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Speaker 1: three this Saturday. It doesn't really matter. LSU comes in

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Speaker 1: at number two, Alabama number three, Penn State number four,

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Speaker 1: and Clemson comes in at number five. You've heard some

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Speaker 1: rumblings at Clemson's mad about that. We'll talk about that later.

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Speaker 1: Then Georgia, Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma all the way down at

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Speaker 1: number nine, round it out by Florida at number ten. Look,

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Speaker 1: people will get all upset about these things. They'll work

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Speaker 1: themselves out. I mean, like LSU plays Alabama this weekend,

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Speaker 1: Penn State plays Minnesota. You know they have more games

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Speaker 1: to play. They'll play Ohio State. They tend to work

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Speaker 1: themselves out. Now, you might have a four verse five

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Speaker 1: controversy at the end of the year, but whatever, Clemson's

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Speaker 1: gonna go on defeed and they're going to pass at

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Speaker 1: least one of these teams, if not two or three.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that surprises me is Oklahoma at nine.

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Speaker 1: I thought they would be a little higher. But losing

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Speaker 1: to Kansas State, you know, who's look good and is

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Speaker 1: now ranked. I don't think woul hurt him that much.

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Speaker 1: But they're at number nine, which might hurt their chances

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Speaker 1: if they went out. So what are your thoughts? Anything

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Speaker 1: that just bothered you?

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Speaker 2: Nothing really bothers me. I understand. You know, having Clemson

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Speaker 2: at number five and including Penn State based on what's

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Speaker 2: happened so far this year, especially with strength of schedule,

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Speaker 2: when Penn State's played so far and gone on the year,

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Speaker 2: gone on the road and won so far this year.

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Speaker 2: So I don't have any problem. It's I'll going to

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Speaker 2: wash itself out. I think the most important thing. And

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Speaker 2: as far as Clemson being favored, by what I said,

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Speaker 2: ten and a half, that's what we power rated at.

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Speaker 2: I saw Matt Lindeman of Circa put out a projected line.

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Speaker 2: He said, if Clemson played Penn State, we'd make it

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Speaker 2: minus eight. I'd be the first in line to bet Clemson.

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Speaker 2: I don't think people realize how good this defense is.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the most spoken true I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think one of the most unspoken things is what Clemson

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Speaker 2: has done on the defense after losing so much NFL talent,

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Speaker 2: they look so fantastic, one of the best defenses in

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Speaker 2: the nation. It's not being talked about enough. But I

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Speaker 2: think the important thing from the rankings is not really

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Speaker 2: the top four. You need to pay attention where Georgia

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Speaker 2: is and where the SEC loser of Alabama LSU is

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Speaker 2: going to be in relation to Oklahoma winning the Big

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Speaker 2: twelve or potentially organ in Utah winning the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 2: Are those teams going to end up popping a one

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Speaker 2: loss SEC? We're going to find out how far they

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Speaker 2: drop Alabama or LSU, Like, you know, where's Georgia gonna go?

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Speaker 2: And will these conference champions with one loss hop a

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Speaker 2: one loss SEC team that's considered in that large That's

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Speaker 2: the huge thing I'll be watching for this upcoming week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's because the interesting discussion is going to be

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Speaker 1: if Alabama wins a close game this week an LSU loses,

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Speaker 1: then obviously they're not going, you know, most likely not

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Speaker 1: going to the SEC Championship. And you know, if they

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Speaker 1: win out and only have one loss, but they're not

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Speaker 1: going to go to the SEC Championship, could they still

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Speaker 1: get in with one loss being at Bama, especially in

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Speaker 1: a close game. That's one of the most interesting things

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Speaker 1: to me. You know, say LSU is one loss at

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Speaker 1: Alabama and Oklahoma wins out and wins the Big twelve championship,

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Speaker 1: who do you take? So that could that could become

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Speaker 1: really interesting. But we'll have a lot a lot more

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Speaker 1: pod many more podcasts, live shows by the way, ten

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Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern each Saturday, ten thirty five between ten

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Speaker 1: thirty five and ten forty. We usually hop on we'll

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Speaker 1: tweet out the link. I'm at stucky two. He's at

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Speaker 1: Colin with two l's underscore than Colin with two e's

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Speaker 1: and the number one. But let's get into these games.

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Speaker 1: That's what everyone's here for. And Mike, we've done the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. Let's start with the marquee games

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Speaker 1: of the weekend. We have two marked down here. It's

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Speaker 1: another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll.

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Speaker 1: All end up betting for week eleven. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: the big one, number two verse number three in the

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Speaker 1: College Ball playoff rankings, Number one, number first, number two,

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Speaker 1: and others. This game is enormous. The line has been

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Speaker 1: bouncing all over the place and talking about LSU Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Obviously this will be the three thirty CBS game. All

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Speaker 1: eyeballs will be on this right now. It sits Alabama

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Speaker 1: on a six and a half over unders at sixty

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Speaker 1: three open lower was higher, came down, seems to have settled.

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Speaker 1: There's obviously, you know, speculation with Tua and his injury

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Speaker 1: and whether or not whole play you know, Saban has

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Speaker 1: come out and said he will play. How mobile will

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Speaker 1: he be? We don't know. I don't know how good

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Speaker 1: Alabama is relative to the top five. They're obviously a

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Speaker 1: top ten team, probably a top five team, right and

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Speaker 1: they if you look at any advanced metric, even opponent adjusted,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be in the top ten five, right, like,

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Speaker 1: even on defense, just because of their talent. But when

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Speaker 1: you go up against another top five team and they

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Speaker 1: haven't played anybody, I mean often they played zero good teams.

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Speaker 1: Who's the best defense they played South Carolina or do

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Speaker 1: Cut I don't know opposing offenses that they played, I

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Speaker 1: mean nobody. I mean, Oh Miss put up thirty five

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Speaker 1: on them. And coming into the year, we said that

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Speaker 1: the they're front seven, you know, if they're losing a

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Speaker 1: bunch of NFL talent, will be worse than we've seen

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Speaker 1: in recent years. We also made the statement that the

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Speaker 1: turnover in the assistant coaches that we've seen in recent

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Speaker 1: years may start to have an impact in Alabama. And

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Speaker 1: we both said, look, they'll get to this point undefeated.

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Speaker 1: It's not like Colbama was gonna go from the best

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Speaker 1: team in the country to number twenty. We're just trying

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Speaker 1: to figure has to drop from like one to eight,

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Speaker 1: nine or ten. We're going to find out this weekend. Now,

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Speaker 1: what I do know is that it's if two is healthy.

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Speaker 1: They have the best passing offense in college football. Their

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Speaker 1: receiving cores is ridiculous, and they could play little sisters

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Speaker 1: of the core every week and you would see that.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side of the ball, what I

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Speaker 1: think when I look at is LSU is a passing

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Speaker 1: oriented offense and they're explosive and they've showed that, and

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Speaker 1: they've had a tougher, much tougher schedule than Alabama. But

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Speaker 1: you might want to run the ball against Alabama. That's

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Speaker 1: where I think their weakness might be. So from a

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Speaker 1: matchup perspective, maybe this is a good thing for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Having said that, I know LSU is really good in

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Speaker 1: one of the top five teams in the country. Alabama

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Speaker 1: is probably, but maybe they're closer to seventy eight, nine

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Speaker 1: to ten. I don't know, but I think with two

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Speaker 1: his health questions, this might be a chance and special

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Speaker 1: teams huge advantage for RELICSU by the way, which we'll write

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Speaker 1: about in our preview, this might be a shot and

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Speaker 1: this might be a teaser for my money or underlog

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Speaker 1: moneyline parlay to take a shot with LSU on that

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Speaker 1: premise that maybe Alabama does take a slight step back.

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Speaker 1: Maybe two isn't one hundred percent healthy. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I've been impressed with the LSU team all season long,

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Speaker 1: So it's a tough game to cap. It'd probably be

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Speaker 1: a good game to bet live, especially if the youc

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Speaker 1: two and there's going to be some scoring. But that's

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Speaker 1: how my initial thoughts the game. It's really hard to

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Speaker 1: know exactly where Alabama is in that top ten because

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Speaker 1: they've played nobody yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, they played nobody, and when they have played

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Speaker 2: some sort of passing offense, they've been exposed a little

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Speaker 2: bit over at the middle. You look what Plumbley did

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Speaker 2: for Ole Miss Texas A and M was able to

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Speaker 2: generate explosive passes through the air. I think both of

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Speaker 2: these defenses, and you'll hear this in my interview with Brody,

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Speaker 2: both of these defenses may be considered a little bit

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Speaker 2: soft over the middle, and I think that's exactly where

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Speaker 2: the attack is going to come from from both offenses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned that. Let's get into that and

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Speaker 1: then I'll let you finish up your thoughts. Earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: Colin spoke with Brody Miller, who, for those of you

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Speaker 1: that listened to our preseason previews, he came on on

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Speaker 1: our SEC preview to talk LSU, So Colin caught up

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Speaker 1: with him on LSU and this game. So let's play

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Speaker 1: that interview. Now, how's it going today?

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Speaker 3: Bertie is trying to keep my head above water in

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Speaker 3: Alabama week, But good to take a break with one

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Speaker 3: of my favorite shows.

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Speaker 2: The news is flying back and forth, But let's start

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Speaker 2: with Joe Burrow. He's just been so excellent at quick passing,

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Speaker 2: quick hitches, slants, shallow crossing routes. Will Burrow will have

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Speaker 2: the success attacking the inside linebackers. Do you think that's

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Speaker 2: going to be Joe Brady's plan of attack is to

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Speaker 2: hit those inside linebackers of Alabama and then maybe check

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Speaker 2: down to running backs in space and then that'll set

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Speaker 2: up the play action and the deep shots.

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Speaker 1: I think you pretty much just hit it on the head. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 3: I think if you look at the season from start

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Speaker 3: to finish, the overall game plan of this team has

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Speaker 3: been quick passing, make the defense creep up, a little

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Speaker 3: bit set up shots downfield. And if there's any team

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Speaker 3: where you kind of have to do that most, it

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Speaker 3: is Alabama. You have two freshman inside linebackers in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the field, you have really good safeties and

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Speaker 3: corners on the outside, but really only chance you have

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Speaker 3: in the passing game of having success is those underneath

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Speaker 3: routes and whatnot. Is definitely kind of the early strat

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Speaker 3: there and then then maybe set up things down the road.

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Speaker 3: And like you said, I think Clyde Edwards Hilaire could

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Speaker 3: be a really big piece of this game for a

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Speaker 3: lot of reasons, because you know, you don't really trust

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Speaker 3: those Alabama linebackers completely right now. It's the idea of

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Speaker 3: maybe getting him an open space on some checkdowns could

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Speaker 3: be really effective against a front seven that just isn't

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Speaker 3: your normal Alabama front set.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about to a real quick The Montgomery Advisor

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Speaker 2: had an article come out this week talking about the

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Speaker 2: tightrope procedure. They had two different physicians in that article.

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Speaker 2: You know, really the takeaway from me was the very

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Speaker 2: last line where the physician who's an expert and has

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Speaker 2: done to the tightrope surgery, he was quoted as saying

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Speaker 2: if two of Tagabaola plays within three weeks, it's a miracle. Now,

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Speaker 2: I go back to a tweet that you put out

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Speaker 2: about Glenn Logan had this exact same procedure and it

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Speaker 2: took him four weeks to return to action. Is too

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Speaker 2: able to have some sort of miracle like effect according

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Speaker 2: to a physician.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's It's been truly the most exhausting storyline of

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Speaker 3: this past two weeks because you hear one doctor from

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Speaker 3: one outlet is saying that he actually is going to

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Speaker 3: better than people think he is. Then you have quotes

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Speaker 3: like that that it's going to be a miracle if

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Speaker 3: he plays with the Glenn Mogan one. I mean it's accurate. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it took four weeks. The only thing I maybe point

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Speaker 3: out is I remember hearing in that week or two

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Speaker 3: leading out to his return that if he needed to,

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Speaker 3: he probably could have played against Utah State. They just

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Speaker 3: weren't worried about it. So I think that kind of

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Speaker 3: almost gives you that perfect in the middle answer of

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Speaker 3: three weeks tells you that he probably can play, but

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Speaker 3: it also tells you the too, it probably won't really

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Speaker 3: be one hundred percent, And that's kind of the most

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Speaker 3: exhausting point of this conversation, right, it's a matter of

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Speaker 3: like there's no really way to quantify that, and that's

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Speaker 3: what's kind of made this also exhausting.

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Speaker 2: And we go back to that. You know, Tua in

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Speaker 2: the playoff last year was coming off this injury, had

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Speaker 2: more time to recover, but once he took his first

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Speaker 2: couple of shots, I mean, he just got stiffer as

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Speaker 2: the game went. So I think something like that's gonna happen. So,

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Speaker 2: whether it's two or mac Jones, Alabama's suspected to do

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Speaker 2: much of the same that LSU's game plan is. I

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Speaker 2: think there's gonna be a lot of shallow routes, getting

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Speaker 2: Devanta Smith Ruggs, Judy Waddle, get them in space and

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Speaker 2: let them have their y acts. How big is the loss?

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Speaker 2: You wrote up a piece everybody should read it over

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Speaker 2: at the athletic. You wrote up a piece on Michael Divinity,

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Speaker 2: the linebacker that has been dismissed from the team. How

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Speaker 2: big is the loss of Michael Divinity? From a past

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Speaker 2: defensive perspective, considering the Christian Fulton and Derek Sting Layer,

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Speaker 2: two of the highest ranked defenders and passes defense Yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Think there's a lot of things going on there right

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Speaker 3: where it is it we're saying that Alabama and LSU

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Speaker 3: are very similar in so many ways, both sides of

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Speaker 3: the ball. Where if you're going to attack LSU anywhere,

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Speaker 3: it should be in the middle of the field. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the linebackers aren't exactly great in pass coverage. Kerry Vincent

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Speaker 3: at the nickel spot is not quite as talented as

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Speaker 3: you know, your stingler Fulton on the outside. He's had

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Speaker 3: some big errors this year. You've had tackling issues at

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Speaker 3: different times of the year. And while I think they've

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Speaker 3: addressed that, that's still a thing lurking in the background.

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Speaker 3: So I think if you're going to attack him anwhere

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Speaker 3: it's definitely there. With the Michael divinity thing, it's it's

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Speaker 3: tricky because eight weeks ago he was the starting inside linebacker,

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Speaker 3: and I think that would have been a massive loss.

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Speaker 3: But because he already was held out of three games

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Speaker 3: with previous disciplinary actions, Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips have

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Speaker 3: turned into really reliable inside linebackers. They took that spot

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Speaker 3: from him, and that Devinie basically became marginalized and got

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Speaker 3: the field sometimes but in the grand scheme of things,

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Speaker 3: he became just like an extreme luxury third down pass rusher,

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Speaker 3: And to be clear, he's a really good one. I

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Speaker 3: mean he leads the team in sacks with three while

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Speaker 3: missing three games already. He's genuinely good in that four

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Speaker 3: man pass rush unit that they go to on third down,

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Speaker 3: third and long situations. They go with klebon chas On,

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Speaker 3: Justin Thomas, Michael Davindi and Fresh and Marcel Brooks Well

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Speaker 3: Divinity and Tomas, both within the past two weeks have

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Speaker 3: been basically, for lack of a better term, dismissed from

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Speaker 3: the team.

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Speaker 1: So now you're replacing two of those guys.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of interesting things going on with

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Speaker 3: his pass rush, if it's chicken or the egg, and

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Speaker 3: it's been really difficult to figure out because it hasn't

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Speaker 3: been that productive. But on the rare times where they've

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Speaker 3: really dialed it up, they've been really successful. So I

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Speaker 3: don't know which I should lean more on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's that leads right into our next

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Speaker 2: question with Jels was seventy and seventieth and saccharate, and

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Speaker 2: I don't think that that's a reflection of talent I

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Speaker 2: think that's a byproduct of David Randa maybe holding back

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Speaker 2: a blitz package, maybe dropping multiple defenders of the coverage

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Speaker 2: because his offense has such a big lead and teams

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Speaker 2: are already in passing situations when they're coming out down

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Speaker 2: by fourteen. So is it safe to assume that Dave

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Speaker 2: Random maybe has been holding back the blitz packages, you know,

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Speaker 2: keeping them off film, and that possibly he has two

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Speaker 2: different set of schemes as far as blitzing the quarterback,

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Speaker 2: whether it's Mac Jones or whether it's too.

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Speaker 3: First off, I absolutely think there are a lot of

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Speaker 3: things in the past rush that Dave rand has been

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Speaker 3: holding back, And one thing I'd point to is there

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Speaker 3: is yet to be a single game this year. We're

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Speaker 3: from a game planning perspective, they were focused on, you know,

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Speaker 3: attacking a quarterback, you know Sam Allen here for example,

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Speaker 3: their game plan in that game, even though it turned

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Speaker 3: out being correct, and they admit that their game plan

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Speaker 3: in that game was more of a cage rush and

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Speaker 3: they weren't trying to get sacks. They were trying to

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Speaker 3: make sure you didn't scramble, which failed, by the way,

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Speaker 3: but still they weren't really trying to get an aggressive

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Speaker 3: rush there, and then you know, you go to the

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Speaker 3: Florida game, another one that kind of failed, but still

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Speaker 3: their game plan was more they played zone, they didn't

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Speaker 3: really rush extra bodies early in that game, and their

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Speaker 3: game plan was more thinking this kind of an experienced

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Speaker 3: quarterback would make mistakes. Kyle Trass picked them apart in

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Speaker 3: the first half, and then second half Dave Randon said,

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Speaker 3: all right, we're going back to man, which also does

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Speaker 3: very well. The pass rush got after it when he

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Speaker 3: finally dialed it up. And then you also go to

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Speaker 3: the Auburn game. They were just focused on stopping the

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Speaker 3: run and we're not worried about bon Nicks, so they

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Speaker 3: didn't have to get as aggressive. And Grant dealt with

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Speaker 3: the All American safety kind of set after a really

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Speaker 3: good pressure he had against Mississippi State, and he's like,

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Speaker 3: I love when when you know coach ran to dial

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Speaker 3: like gets a little more creative, because that's when the

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Speaker 3: genius comes out. And he's like, we still have most

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Speaker 3: of it in the bag, Like we still haven't used

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Speaker 3: most of it, which tells you a lot right there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I wouldn't expect like the cage scheme to

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Speaker 2: come into play against two, especially if he's hobbled. So

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Speaker 2: we'll see if they send the blitzer up the middle.

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Speaker 2: So does the loser of this game you think completely

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Speaker 2: your opinion. Does the loser of this game do you

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Speaker 2: think gets into the college football playoffs?

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Speaker 1: Alabama?

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Speaker 3: I think we're at the point now unless some crazy

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Speaker 3: things go wrong, I think I say no. I think

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Speaker 3: if Alabama loses this game, they eleven and one, Alabama

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Speaker 3: would only have one quality win against Auburn, and Auburn's

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Speaker 3: the team with two losses itself, so they really just

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Speaker 3: wouldn't have any impressive win. And it seems like it's

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Speaker 3: a year where there's actually a good amount of legitimate contenders.

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Speaker 3: I just have a hard time seeing that come to pruition,

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Speaker 3: especially when you know and Nick Saban's been open about

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Speaker 3: it being a weaker Alabama defense. I just don't see

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Speaker 3: it LSU point of view. I think twenty four hours ago,

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Speaker 3: I would have said, no doubt in my mind, a

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Speaker 3: one loss LSU gets in. They have the best resume

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Speaker 3: in the country of any one loss team in that scenario.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it seems like a no brainer, and I

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Speaker 3: still feel like they would. But what i'd point to

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Speaker 3: is I'm a little surprised they were number two in

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Speaker 3: the College Football Playoff ranking because that tells you something, right,

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Speaker 3: That tells you that one they're looking at you know

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Speaker 3: how you play things like that, so they like Ohio Statemore.

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Speaker 3: But two, they're already starting to devalue that Texas lost

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Speaker 3: quite a bit. Rob Mollendnt even mentioned the Texas win

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Speaker 3: when talking about LSU's resume, and then so that they're

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Speaker 3: not too high on that, And then the Florida win

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Speaker 3: looks a little weaker every week, even though I still

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Speaker 3: think I should be a good win, and the Auburn win,

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you can tell the playoff committee

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Speaker 3: doesn't feel as strongly about it as we all do,

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Speaker 3: so all of a sudden, I'm a little less confident.

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Speaker 3: I still have a hard time seeing any other one

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Speaker 3: loss team being ahead of them. And if i'd have

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Speaker 3: put odds, I'd say, like, I feel seventy percent confident

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Speaker 3: they'd still get in. But I twenty four hours ago

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Speaker 3: I would have said ninety five percent. So you know,

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Speaker 3: take that as you will.

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Speaker 2: So let's talk about Joe Burrow's heisman ons real quick,

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Speaker 2: do you think Joe has to not only just win

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Speaker 2: this game, but do you think this is it or

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Speaker 2: do you think still that a loss to Georgia in

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Speaker 2: the SEC Championship would maybe deter some votes his way.

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Speaker 3: I think if he wins this game, he pretty much

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Speaker 3: has it wrapped up. Just because the Heisman falls in

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Speaker 3: love with storylines, right, there is no better storyline than

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow, because, all right, he's at a school that

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Speaker 3: has literally never had a quarterback, that's never had a

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Speaker 3: modern offense. He brought them to the Promised Land. He

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Speaker 3: would have beaten the school that the school flat out

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Speaker 3: couldn't beat for eight years and taken down this mighty giant.

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Speaker 3: And he would have knocked out the only other true

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Speaker 3: like real, bona fide candidate going up against him. Right now,

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Speaker 3: if he wins, two is pretty much off the board.

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Speaker 3: I think that's safe to say, Chase Young, I love

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Speaker 3: that that's a real candidate.

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Speaker 1: I love that concept.

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Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, just don't know

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Speaker 3: if America is at a point where it's really going

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Speaker 3: to pull the trigger out of that. But my gut

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Speaker 3: tells me, if Burrow wins this game, it's his.

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Speaker 2: Let's wrap it up with any predictions. Do you have

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Speaker 2: any predictions for this game as far as player props

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Speaker 2: or winner or number of points scored?

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Speaker 3: You know, I saw the Do you think there will

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Speaker 3: be a score change in the fourth quarter? I just

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Speaker 3: everything in my court tells me this is going to

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Speaker 3: be a shootout. If it's a shootout, that makes me

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Speaker 3: think they'll be kind of back and forth. So I

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Speaker 3: kind of like a yes on that one.

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Speaker 2: This is Brody Miller from The Athletic. Brody, got anything

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Speaker 2: else you can point us to.

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Speaker 3: Story today basically talking about that exact thing we just

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Speaker 3: discussed with Dave Randa, maybe keeping things hidden, so i'd

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Speaker 3: point people.

432
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:27,679
Speaker 1: To that today.

433
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: Awesome, he's Brody Miller of the Athletic. Thanks for joining me, Brody,

434
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me as always, take CAMA.

435
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 1: All right, thanks for that, Colin, and thanks for joining

436
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 1: us Brody as always. Great stuff. So all right, come,

437
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 1: let's wrap up your final thoughts, your pregame positions, and

438
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 1: what you've put on adding if anything, and then live.

439
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 2: Yeah. So as far as the side goes, I think

440
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 2: it's pretty self explanatory. Look, headline was LSU plus eight.

441
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,400
Speaker 2: I didn't have any problem taking that because we power

442
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 2: rated at seven. I took five and a half on

443
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 2: the open market this week. If you can get this game,

444
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 2: you know, get if you can lock in six or

445
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 2: seven in a game like this where you power rated

446
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 2: in the middle, you got it. I mean you got

447
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 2: to do it, or at least, you know, try to

448
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 2: do it. And that's what I kind of try to

449
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 2: do with the total, because my expectation the entire time

450
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,160
Speaker 2: was that Tua was going to play and that if

451
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 2: and you know, the total has kind of been thought

452
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 2: of is if he's plays and he's one hundred percent,

453
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: the total should be at sixty nine. If he doesn't

454
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: play and it's mac Jones, it should be around sixty

455
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: three sixty two. So that's really what the market has

456
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 2: been overreacting to. There's some other noise out there about

457
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 2: these two teams are going to try to establish the run,

458
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 2: try to you know, run the ball and keep play,

459
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 2: keep away. Both of these teams are at bottom ten

460
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 2: in the nation in rush explosiveness. I mean, their success

461
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: rate is okay, but once one of these teams has

462
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 2: two scores as two score lead on the other, you

463
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 2: could ditch the run. I mean, we are going downtown

464
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 2: with these passing offenses. And I think from a pregame position, yes,

465
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 2: right now I'm sitting on a lot on over sixty

466
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,159
Speaker 2: three and a half over sixty four. There's going to

467
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 2: be a flurry of scoring during the game that's going

468
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: to get that live total up at sixty seven, maybe seventy,

469
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 2: And at that point I'm going to come back and

470
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 2: play the under for a little bit live so you

471
00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 2: guys can look for that on the action app. But

472
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: I'm trying a middle of both side and total in

473
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: this game. If I had to be in a pick

474
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 2: and pool, I absolutely would take over sixty three and

475
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 2: a half and I would take Alabama in this instance

476
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 2: because there are just things with LSU's defense. I think

477
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 2: that they've given up way too many explosive plays. I

478
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 2: think the narrative around Alabama has been a little bit harsh.

479
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 2: I think they're going to remind us who the number

480
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: one team is in the nation, So I think they

481
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 2: get the cover here. But I'd be happy if it

482
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 2: landed at seven fair enough.

483
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I don't know if I'm going to

484
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 1: get involved yet pregame. I mean, I it's it's a

485
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: game that I want to see play out, I think

486
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: I'll be able to get, you know, whatever I want

487
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: to get live in, especially from a side perspective. You know,

488
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 1: if it goes back up to LSU plus seven plus

489
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: seven and a half, I might have to think about

490
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: backing the Tigers there. But it's it's just it's a

491
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: tough game to cap because you know, with to his

492
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: injury status and then with Alabama's schedule, it's just very

493
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: difficult to know exactly where Alabama is relative to these

494
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:55,719
Speaker 1: elite top five teams.

495
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 2: One thing I don't need the game to start playing

496
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,679
Speaker 2: to know this, because that has Christian Fulton and Derek Stingley,

497
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,119
Speaker 2: two of the best corners in the nation, especially in

498
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: passes defense. I'm looking at taking player props on wide

499
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: receivers for Alabama not named DeVonta Smith, like I'm looking

500
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 2: at Judy, I'm looking at Waggle, I'm looking at rugs.

501
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: If I can find TD props, if I can find

502
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 2: reception props, you know, yardage props, I'll take them because

503
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 2: I think, you know, anybody that's not being guarded by

504
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 2: Fulton and Stingley in this game, I think is going

505
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: to have a lot of success for Alabama.

506
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 1: Keep bro out for Delpit because I'm sure a big

507
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 1: turnover will be enormous in this game.

508
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: They weren't allowing him to practice like out in open

509
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 2: public this week, like they were keeping his particular workouts private.

510
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, Edo did say he's going to play. We'll have

511
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: much more on this game, huge betting guide, we'll have

512
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: up on Action App and Action network dot com. We'll

513
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: obviously talk about this on Saturday morning as well. Let's

514
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: move on to the second marquee game of the weekend

515
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: between two also between two undefeated teams, and that's Minnesota

516
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: and Penn State. Speaking of I said that LS, you

517
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: will have a big special teams advantage. Penn State will

518
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: have a big space team's engine this game. Minnesota, as

519
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: good as they've been, their special team's been really poor.

520
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: They really miss Emmic Carpenter as one of the best

521
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 1: kickers in college football last year. They have a freshman

522
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 1: Michael Lance, who's only five of eight on field goals.

523
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: It includes two misses between thirty and thirty nine and

524
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: I miss from fifty plus, so something to keep in

525
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: mind on Saturday. But look, Minnesota, it's sort of like Alabama,

526
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: except we know Alabama is the lead, right, we know

527
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: that there are top five, top ten, that worst team

528
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 1: maybe best team in the country. You know, because they're

529
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 1: getting five stars, Minnesota is not obviously getting as talented

530
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 1: of players as Alabama does. And also they've been played nobody.

531
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 1: I mean, their schedule, like Alabama, has been a joke

532
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: now in fairness and beginning of the year they barely

533
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: beat Fresno State, Georgia State, South Dakastin now and Faris.

534
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: As soon as it got to conference play, they've been

535
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: rolling teams and comprehensively, which you have to credit them for.

536
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: What I do know about Minnesota, I like their secondary

537
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: and I like their secondary coming into the year. You know,

538
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: they have some really good pieces. Antwoine Winfield Junior is

539
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: one of them, you know, in their secondary. I still

540
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: don't know how great they are in the trenches on defense,

541
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: but I am a buyer in this offense. I mean,

542
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: this is what an offense that you can watch regardless

543
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: of who they're playing and understand the talent on the offense.

544
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,719
Speaker 1: I mean Rodney Smith at running back Tanner Morgan has

545
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: been absolutely outstanding over sixty five percent completion percentage, eighteen touchdowns,

546
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: four picks, you know, and then they have two really

547
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: good receivers led by Tyler Johnson, who's going to play

548
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: at the next level. So I really like this offense.

549
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: And you know, from an efficiency standpoint, they're top ten

550
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 1: in the nation. I mean, this offense is real. The

551
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 1: defense their numbers look good, but again they've played nobody,

552
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: let's be honest. And then on the other side of

553
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: the ball, you have Penn State. You know, Penn State

554
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: has cost me a lot of money. I've I look

555
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: and I've had to adjust them. I adjust them two

556
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 1: more points after the buy because I'm like the market.

557
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: I'm so different from the market. I keep losing money.

558
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: But I still only make this game four and a half,

559
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: so take it for what it's worth. I can't get

560
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: a good read on Penn State. Now. They've had quality wins,

561
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: maybe not that impressively, but they you know, they what

562
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: Penn State has done this year, their offense doesn't look

563
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 1: that impressive if you start digging outside of the first quarter.

564
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: And this is one of the biggest things that I

565
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: noticed when I was digging into Penn State is I

566
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: kept thinking back and I say, Penn State every week

567
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 1: go is up twenty one nothing and then does nothing

568
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: on offense. So I don't know if this is a

569
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: scripted play thing where they're just you know, they have

570
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 1: a young quarterback in Clifford. Their running game is yeah

571
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 1: at times, obviously, I have kJ Hamler is one of

572
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 1: the most explosive receivers in the country. But I don't

573
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: know if their scripted plays are just so good and

574
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 1: then he's so comfortable. We saw this with Mitch Trubisky

575
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: before he just imploded last year. He was actually pretty good,

576
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: you know, in the first quarter in the scripted plays

577
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: portion of the game, and then he just would become

578
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 1: Mitch Mortals. And maybe that's what we're seeing here. But

579
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: Penn State against Power five teams, I don't care about

580
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: the Idaho game or Buffalo, but against Power five teams

581
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: this year, and that includes all their Big Ten games,

582
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 1: you know, against Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, good defenses hit two.

583
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: They outscored their opponents fifty six to three in the

584
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 1: first quarter. They've got three points in the first quarter,

585
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: first half one hundred and twenty five to thirty, and

586
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: in the second half they've only scored a combined fifty

587
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: nine points. A couple other things of don'e here. James

588
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: Franklin is a favorite. Nail's forty twenty seven and three

589
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: against the spread in his career. Only Gundy is Mike

590
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: Gundey Boklham. The state has been more profitable against the

591
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: spread of active coaches if you include all coaches of

592
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: the past fifteen years, active and former, only Stoops, Trestle

593
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 1: and Gundy have been more profitable as a favorite than Franklin.

594
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: But the way that I look at this game is

595
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how good Minnesota's defense is, you know,

596
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: but I do think that their secondary maybe can match

597
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 1: up well. I know Penn State's offense has some explosives.

598
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: I do like their defense a lot. It's a top

599
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: ten defense, but I also really like the Minnesota offense.

600
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: I think the over Runners a little short at forty

601
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: eight forty seven and a half. I'm gonna look at

602
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 1: the over and also I might numbers make Minnesota. If

603
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 1: I can get seven flat or seven and a half,

604
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: I'll have to look at Minnesota and probably lose money.

605
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: But I'm pretty confident that based on what I've seen,

606
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: I'll be able to get seven or more early because

607
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: this is what Penn State has done, and I think

608
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: that they're going to follow the script again, maybe getting

609
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: explosive play early. Minnesota comes out a little too jacked

610
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: up for the biggest game of maybe program history, according

611
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: to Fleck, and it's you know, maybe they come out

612
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: a little too jacked up. Penn State takes advantage. You

613
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: go up seven to ten to nothing, and then I

614
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: can get Minnesota. So there's some of my thoughts there.

615
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:25,479
Speaker 1: What how about you.

616
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 2: I think everything you just said is one hundred percent

617
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 2: spot on, and I echo completely. I think that's a

618
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 2: great handicap. There are things about Minnesota that bothered me,

619
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 2: like both, there's things about both these teams that bothered me.

620
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 2: I mean, Penn State's bothered us all year. But I

621
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: think you are so spot on with the Sean Clifford

622
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: and the and the scripted plays because we talk about

623
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: how they come out and sometimes Penn State from drive

624
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 2: to drive will look like a National Championship contender and

625
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: then some offensive drives they look like the bottom of

626
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 2: the big of the Big ten.

627
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: So it just doesn't mean most of those drives that

628
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: are good or early.

629
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I mean, and you think about

630
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 2: Penn State, Iowa, I mean, that was a two point

631
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 2: conversion away from US covering on the Iowa. So, I

632
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: mean some of these spreads have come down to, like,

633
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,239
Speaker 2: you know, just a single play at the end, you know,

634
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: And even Michigan was able to get back in the game,

635
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,479
Speaker 2: and then there's a whole buffalo thing. But Minnesota's got

636
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: their own wards, you know. I mean, they're straight to the schedules.

637
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 2: Outside the top eighty. They gave up thirty to Purdue

638
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern, a very very young Fresno state that had

639
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: one of the lowest returning production ranks for a roster

640
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: coming into this season, scored thirty on these guys early

641
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: on Minnesota. They were trailing South Dakota State late in

642
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 2: that game at the beginning of the season. So I

643
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: don't have any love for Minnesota. And it's the same

644
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 2: thing that I said in our Big Ten preview earlier

645
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 2: this summer. I said, I just don't think they have

646
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 2: the talent to hang with the big boys in the

647
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 2: big games, and that would translate into here. Now, I

648
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 2: am kind of playing that whole Clifford angle. Things are scripted, listen.

649
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 2: Penn State has been fantastic in the first half lately

650
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 2: ever since they were trailing Buffalo in that game. In

651
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 2: the past five games, Penn State has allowed just twenty

652
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: points in the first half. They are allowing an average

653
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 2: of four points in the first half. So I was

654
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 2: happy to go ahead and take Penn State in the

655
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: first half, getting into that whole scripted plays and then

656
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: maybe they'll go into a funk in the second half.

657
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: But there's just one stat that I can't get over,

658
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: and that is Minnesota is one hundred and twenty sixth

659
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: an opponent red zone scoring. I mean, they're allowing just

660
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 2: like anybody to get into the red zone to score points.

661
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 2: So if Penn State can at least get there, then

662
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to score some points, especially a touchdown.

663
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: And the thing about Minnesota, you're right, the reason why

664
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: they might cover this game, which actually, if I had

665
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 2: to take a full game, I would probably take Minnesota

666
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 2: because they probably wake up in the third quarter, fourth quarter.

667
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 2: Penn State maybe has a slide, but Minnesota is second

668
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: in the nation and defensive pass explosiveness, and I think

669
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 2: they're going to be able to lock it down at

670
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 2: some point, be able to keep the game close. And

671
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: there's just a lot of things with Penn State that

672
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: we have. You know, they're hot one minute, they're cold another.

673
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 2: I'll ride them in the first half. And if a

674
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 2: live number pops on Minnesota over seven, I mean, like you,

675
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: I want that seven too. And there's there's you know,

676
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 2: there's some sharp shops that are taking it down to

677
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: six this afternoon. So I'm happy to sit back and

678
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: let Penn State get a lead and give me seven,

679
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: give me ten on Minnesota as the biggest game of

680
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: the year. But I love how PJ. Fleck gets that

681
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 2: contract extension going right before a couple games where he

682
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: could potentially get blown out.

683
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, smart man, row the boat. Minnesota Big ten futures

684
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 1: have a shot. But yeah, I love the Minnesota offense.

685
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: I know they've played nobody, but no matter who they've played,

686
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: the defense has questions. As you said, you can look

687
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: at some of their scores and Penn State, I do

688
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: have questions about their running game. But they've played Iowa, Michigan,

689
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: Michigan State. You know, these are stout, stout front ends

690
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: much I think much better and far more superior than

691
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: what Minnesota has in the trenches. So I do think

692
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: Penn State will be able to move the ball on

693
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: the ground. I think it's a you know, it's an

694
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: over that not many people are talking about. I think

695
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: that's two Big Ten teams. The Penn State defense is

696
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: really good, but I think there are many more questions

697
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: about the Minnesota defense than there are with the Minnesota offense.

698
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: I think that this could be higher scoring than many think.

699
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 2: You know, Minnesota has the deep ball going for him,

700
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: and that's how you beat Penn State. You could beat

701
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: them deep. You can throw it over twenty yards and

702
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 2: get some yardage on Penn State.

703
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: And by the way, just to wrap up that Alabama

704
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: LSU game, I mean this is a you know, a

705
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: series that's been dominated, dominated by Alabama. Alabama's won eighth

706
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: street in this rivalry. They've won thirty one straight games

707
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: at home. So that's what LSU is going up against.

708
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's go as we do each week through

709
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: each conference. We'll pick out a couple games here and

710
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: there that either peak our interests or that we bet ourselves. Kyle,

711
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: you have got head started me this week. I had

712
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: to finish up college basketball. Perhaps well. I am in

713
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: catch up mode in the AAC this weekend. Not much

714
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: out there except for two things that jumped out of me,

715
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: and I'll let you go. In these two games, you

716
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: mentioned something that I saw on a tweet about ECU

717
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: SMU and I was afraid that you were going to

718
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: fall in love with ECU again. They're catching twenty one

719
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: at SMU off a loss. And then you've mentioned something

720
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: to me and Slack today about thinking Connecticut it was

721
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: a thirty five point underdog at Cincinnati could beat Cincinnati.

722
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: I asked if you were drinking in Vegas. You said yes,

723
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 1: So I'm going to chalk it up to that. But

724
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: go ahead, and did talk briefly on those two AAC games.

725
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 2: Let's start off with the easy one real quick. So

726
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: it's Hey, it's Holton Naylor's awareness month and November last

727
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: year he had a touchdown interception ratio of ten to

728
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 2: two in the month of November. He is fantastic. He

729
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 2: showed up last week and you know, gave Cincinnati a

730
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 2: real scare. Cincinnati is able to pull away there at

731
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: the end of the game because of a Holton Naylor's

732
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: pick six, but you know, the Pirates, I think that

733
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 2: there are going to be in trouble in this game.

734
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: SMU is going to get back on the track. There

735
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 2: are things with their passing success rate and passing exposiveness.

736
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: They're going to be able to expose the ECU defense,

737
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: but who can't expose the ECU defense or outside the

738
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: top one hundred and almost everything. So I am looking.

739
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: I mean, I power rate it right on the numbers.

740
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: So I would like to get SMU at minus twenty

741
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: and a half. So I'll sit and watch that. But

742
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 2: there's just a monster Havoc discrepancy here. SMU is eleventh

743
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: in the nation and havoc ECUs ninety fifth and havoc allowed.

744
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: They have a problem with ball protection as every Pirates

745
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: game I've watched the last couple of years as ball

746
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: protections ECUSMU.

747
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: Does that SMU go over for tenth straight game this.

748
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: Year, Absolutely right, It's it's the secret.

749
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: We're back on a secret, the best kept secret in

750
00:31:58,800 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 3: college football.

751
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: SMU has the seeker.

752
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: They called me the secer. What I love is that

753
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: you and I are going to be looking during spring

754
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,959
Speaker 2: practice next year about who's got the seeker on their

755
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: field for the spring game. So UKN Cincinnati, Yeah, I

756
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: just slacked. I admit I might have had a bloody

757
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 2: Mary this morning and I just started looking at the

758
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 2: board and I thought, man, Cincinnati's box scorers have looked

759
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: really shitty the past few weeks. Let's do a deep

760
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 2: dive and see what's going on. They gave up six

761
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty eight to ECU. They were outgained by Tulsa,

762
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 2: outgained by Houston, outgained by Central Florida, and through those games,

763
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: the Bearcats were plus ten and net turnovers with Tulsa, Houston,

764
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: and UCF. And I mean Cincinnati is just barely getting by.

765
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 2: The record is not indicative of how they've done their

766
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: past few games. They've been lucky to win a lot

767
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 2: of these games. It's been based on turnovers, but the

768
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,239
Speaker 2: defense has given it up to everybody. Their offense has

769
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: not been as efficient, has been as effective. So I

770
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: look at this number and I make it what thirty So,

771
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 2: I mean, thirty five is a little much. So that

772
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: would turn me on to take in Yukon anyways. But

773
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 2: then I started looking at Yukon's and we've said this before.

774
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: While I've liked Yukon to cover a couple numbers, especially

775
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 2: against Houston, you know there's sixteenth in rush explosiveness, and

776
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: Cincinnati is seventy fifth and allow and opponents rush explosiveness,

777
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: so you know they're allowing big plays on the ground.

778
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: I think Yukon can at least cover the number well.

779
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 2: From what I'm reading from Cincinnati's box scores the last

780
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: few weeks, they are due for an eye popping loss.

781
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: I mean something that's just like whoa where did that

782
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: come from? Cincinnati's right there, there is a thirty five

783
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 2: and a half here in town being offered by CG

784
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 2: and that happens to me where I'm staying this week.

785
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 2: So you're going to see a thirty five and a

786
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: half come through the pipe? Heree a little bit.

787
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: I mean I can see your case for an upset coment.

788
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's this week, especially after surviving

789
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: last week. I think you'll get them at least more

790
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: focused from the get go. But it is interesting. I mean,

791
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 1: that was the thing that popped out to me. So

792
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: I agree with you, the glaudy numbers that ACU put

793
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: up against since he last week. All right, so let's

794
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: move on to the ACC. Let me give my you know,

795
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: square take of the weekend. You know, the first thing

796
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: I saw when Clemson was rated fifth in the College

797
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: for a playoff. Is an article about Dabbo's response to it.

798
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 1: He actually thought it was at seven thirty PM, but

799
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: it was at nine, so he missed it live because

800
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: he was eating cake with his grandma or his mom's

801
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: birthday or someone his mom or his grandma, I forget.

802
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: But then he was getting text, he said. The only

803
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: reason he found he was getting text from you know,

804
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: his players saying like, guess up the bus, let's go fifth.

805
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: What is this? So my square take of the weekend is, Look,

806
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: I've been on CLEMBS. I was on Clemson against BC.

807
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: They're starting to wake up, They're starting to hear the disrespect,

808
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: and you're seeing the Clemson that we thought we'd see

809
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: from the beginning of the year. This is a spot

810
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: where you think they'd want to come out and say hello, everybody,

811
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 1: we're still here, and then go out there and just

812
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 1: absolutely blow a bad NC State team out of the water.

813
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: The number doesn't have that much value, So that's why

814
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: it's my square take of the weekend. Any thoughts in

815
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: that game.

816
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no value in this number, whatsoever.

817
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 3: I mean.

818
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 2: I the national narrative now is Clemson is going to

819
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 2: be pissed it's going to blow NC State out. I'm like, listen, okay, well,

820
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 2: we make the game twenty eight and a half, so

821
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: thirty two is a little much. And even seventeen and

822
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: a half for the first half, I mean that's a lot.

823
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: But the first half is where the work is going

824
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: to be done. Trevor's Lawrence is going to come in,

825
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: get his one hundred and seventy five yards, his three

826
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 2: tds and no I INT's. But really, for me, this

827
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: game is about NC State being one hundred and tenth

828
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 2: and rushing explosiveness allowed. That points to me saying Travis

829
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: etn is going to have a huge game. I want

830
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on the run pass ratio and

831
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: how far Trevor Lawrence is actually throwing down the field

832
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: and if he's hitting guys on the run, because the

833
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: big knock on him at the beginning of the year

834
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: is that he was just throwing it up on the sidelines,

835
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: letting t Higgins, letting Justin Ross go up and get it.

836
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 2: He wasn't getting in sync with guys. Pay attention to

837
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: the Clemson film. If Trevor is hitting guys forty yards

838
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: down the field and they're in sync. This Clemson team

839
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: is going to be a play on team for the

840
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 2: rest of the season. I just want to make sure

841
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: all those kinks are worked out. I'm not going to

842
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: buy it this week. It's a little expensive at seventeen

843
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 2: and a half in the first half, little expensive at

844
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 2: thirty two. But if I can see Trevor hitting guys,

845
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: not just in Spain, but if he's not just throwing

846
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: it up and letting it be in tipballed, I'll lost

847
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 2: Stanford last year. If he's hitting guys on the run.

848
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: That this is a team I'm gonna back the rest

849
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: of the year.

850
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: Every week. I agree with you. I think the sharp

851
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: way to play that square take is played the under

852
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 1: in the game. You know this MC State team stinks

853
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: by the way they scored. I mean, this is a

854
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: team you saw Syracuse against BC get absolutely trucked and

855
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: by the way, BC ran for four hundred and sixty yards.

856
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: Very good rushing offense on NC State. So I agree

857
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 1: that Syracuse can just run all over them, which will

858
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: keep the clock moving, even though they might just be chunks.

859
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: But this is an NC State team scored sixteen points

860
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: at home or Syracuse. They are not good. And look,

861
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: they scored ten points last Weekend's wake Forest. I think

862
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 1: this Clemson d comes out fired up, they get shut out.

863
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: Maybe it's like forty five seven, you know, and the

864
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 1: totals down to fifty four thirty eight seven, forty one seven.

865
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 1: Maybe Clemson post a shutout because they easily could do

866
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: it if they wont.

867
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: I think it. Maybe I should take an NC State

868
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 2: team total under. But then I thought about Walford scoring

869
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 2: some points last week.

870
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough in a good spot. Right, you have

871
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 1: Miami coming off of Florida State and Louisville bye. Is

872
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: it worth buying Louisville it's under seven?

873
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 2: I mean it's a perfect spot. I haven't bought into

874
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: this game, but I mean Sadderfield's getting a week off.

875
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: If you look into his history, how good he's been

876
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: off of a bye week. What is a team's record?

877
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: Miami played so well last week, they played so good

878
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 2: last week their in state rival fired their coach. Now

879
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: what is the all time against spread record for a

880
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 2: team the week after they make their their rival fire

881
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 2: their own coach. So you can't imagine that you know

882
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: Miami's is up for this game, or you know that this.

883
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just a spot Louisville falls really nice

884
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 2: into on the schedule. If Miami's defense is still, you know,

885
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 2: extremely up for the task as far as passing success rate,

886
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 2: rushing success rate, then they should shut Louisville down. But

887
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 2: I mean, if Miami's defense is dragging just a little

888
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: bit that what they are in usual weeks, Louisvill's gonna

889
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 2: have a chance to score here. Cover the number.

890
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, anything Duke. Notre Dame, which is a game that

891
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: is happening that no one is talking about. Notre Name

892
00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 1: obviously survived Virginia Tech. I don't know how last week

893
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: at home they're laying eight in doorm anything there, Yeah,

894
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:04,959
Speaker 1: I think.

895
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: We're supposed to play Duke here. You look at the

896
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: box score from that game last week, and Virginia Tech

897
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 2: had had every reason to probably upset that game, and

898
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 2: they were a seventeen point dog. Duke's got an extremely

899
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: good opponent passing success rate, So defensively, they're twenty seventh

900
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 2: in the nation at stopping the pass, which is going

901
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 2: to play into what they've been able to do against

902
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 2: Ian Book. Duke is you know, rigked right up there

903
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,359
Speaker 2: in the top forty and Havoc and Havoc allowed. They

904
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: don't beat themselves. It's just a trade of a cutcliff team.

905
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 2: So you know, I think eight is probably too many

906
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: points and definitely worth of play. But we'll see how

907
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: far the steams because it was seven for the longest

908
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: time and it got up to eight, and if it

909
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: wants to go up to nine and a half, I'll

910
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 2: certainly let it before I play the Blue Devils.

911
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we got tricked on this Notre Dame defense,

912
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: which lost a lot. You know when they you know,

913
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: they when they beat Georgia, when excuse me, when they

914
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 1: covered against Georgia lost by six. I think it was

915
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: more of a sleepy conservative Georgia than the Notre Dame defense,

916
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: which I was ready to credit and say, look look

917
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: what they did against the run. Because in the next

918
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: week they give up twenty you know, they beat Virginia,

919
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: but Virginia two fumbles. That game should have been a

920
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 1: lot closer. They be bowling Green fifty two. Nothing. Who

921
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 1: cares the weekendter that they should have lost a USC

922
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: at home. They gave up twenty seven points and you

923
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: know to a freshman quarterback, that's thrown over, and then

924
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: they give up forty five to Michigan, and then you know,

925
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: they give up all those yards and should have lost

926
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 1: a VA Tech. So this defense I think is not

927
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: as good as I was ready to credit after all

928
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: the losses that they had after last year. All right,

929
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: let's move on to the Big twelve, which, if you're

930
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 1: a bookie or a sportsbook manager out there, you're probably

931
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: going to be keeping a close eye on the Big

932
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: twelve this week outside of the two major games, because

933
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 1: there's gonna be I think some lopside it splits here.

934
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: Baylor minus two and a half at TCU. Baylor's eight

935
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: to zero against four and four TCU at home. Baylor's

936
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 1: number twelve in the country. Now, TCU has quarterback questions.

937
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,399
Speaker 1: I think Dunnan's going to go, but they've lost two

938
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 1: other quarterbacks, so that's a tough game. The cap TIC's

939
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: been a tough team to figure out. You also have

940
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 1: texasank seven at home against Kansas State. Kansas State's on fire,

941
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 1: obviously off that upset against Oklahoma. They beat TCU, and

942
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 1: last week they dominated Kansas. Texas should be getting a

943
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: little healthier here, which should help, especially in the defensive

944
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: side of the ball and in the backfield. I think

945
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 1: that they can move the ball on the ground against

946
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 1: his kansastate team, hit some big plays. I think it's

947
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 1: a good spot to back Texas in a herman spot

948
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 1: as a favorite. They're kind of like a dog as

949
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 1: a favorite here. It's very odd, but I'm sure books

950
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: are actually going to be Texas. This line got steamed

951
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: up to seven, which I missed. I'm hoping to get

952
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: under seven again. Then you have Oklahoma, a two touchdown

953
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: favorite against Iowa State. I'm sure you'll get an angry

954
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 1: Oklahoma team off of a bye, Lincoln Riley two weeks

955
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: to prepare. But Matt Campbell his team, you know, also

956
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 1: off of a bye. They are coming off a bad

957
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 1: loss as well. He's been a great against the spread

958
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: in his career. I mean, sixteen and a half percent

959
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 1: ROI He's fifty three to thirty five and three against

960
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: the spread sixty percent. Talk to me about these Big

961
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 1: twelve games.

962
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love these games, and I've got to play

963
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: in almost all of them, and some of them just

964
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,240
Speaker 2: waiting on. Especially with TCU. It's a game time decision

965
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 2: for Max Duggan. I mean, I hear that he is

966
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 2: going to play, but still with a broken finger on

967
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: the throwing hand. And there's things about that. You know,

968
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 2: that Baylor game against West Virginia. There's nothing that West

969
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: Virginia did that actually impressed me or anything that I

970
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: took away from Baylor, and I'm thinking, well, I need

971
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 2: a downgrade Baylor. I mean, the Mountaineers had a ninety

972
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: five yard kickoff return and they had another TD from

973
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 2: an explosive play at eighty two yards.

974
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: That's it.

975
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 2: That's the only offense they had. I mean, it was

976
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 2: really the Baylor offense not able to you know, put

977
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 2: up their lion's share of the points. The Baylor defense

978
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 2: did everything that game. West Virginia made it to Baylor

979
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: territory just three times, the no points. I mean, Baylor

980
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 2: shut them down from a defensive perspective. TCU had four

981
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 2: turnovers against Oklahoma State. So, like we said, you mentioned

982
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 2: their quarterbacks being hurt. Max Dogan's got a broken finger

983
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: on his throwing hand, Michael Collins has got some I

984
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: think some internal injuries going on, and Alex Dealton transferred

985
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: out of the program just as fast as he transferred

986
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: into the program. So I definitely don't want to lay

987
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 2: into TCU considering the fourth string quarterback might be taking snaps,

988
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: you know, if Dougan can't go, So I'm waiting on

989
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 2: this one. But if Max is under center for the

990
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,280
Speaker 2: horn Frogs, then I am going to play on TCU

991
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 2: this week. As far as Iowa State and Oklahoma goes,

992
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 2: I think the numbers just a tad too high. I

993
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 2: think anything under fourteen maybe is a light play on Oklahoma.

994
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 2: Anything over which it is right now as we're recording,

995
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: is a play on Iowa State. Matt Campbell has kept

996
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 2: this game the last three years. It's the Oklahoma's never

997
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 2: won by more than ten points, so Iowa State's done

998
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 2: a really good job at keeping this close. Oklahoma's one

999
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty ninth in the country an opponent rush explosiveness,

1000
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 2: but that's just not Iowa State's game anymore. David Montgomery's

1001
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: not there. They're ninety fifth offensively and explosive rush. So

1002
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 2: as much as I'd like to call for an upset

1003
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 2: with Iowa State, I just can't do it. I don't

1004
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: think they have the horsepower to get it done. And

1005
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 2: you know, don't know if Brock Purty is going to

1006
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,479
Speaker 2: be thrown all over the yard. Now Texas Kansas State.

1007
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 2: Probably my most favorite play of the week Rairi skuys

1008
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 2: are line and hut deep in the high I thinks

1009
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: it's hopped on Texas early. I would still play Texas

1010
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,720
Speaker 2: at minus seven. There are things that I am seeing

1011
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 2: with a regard to Kansas State being one hundred and

1012
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 2: nineteenth and opponent rush explissiveness going up against Sam Elliger,

1013
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 2: who's had two weeks to prepare for this game. Texas

1014
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 2: is second in the nation. And first downs they're third

1015
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 2: in the nation. And third down conversions. I mean, that's

1016
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: all it's going to be. It's going to be Texas

1017
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 2: first downs, third down conversions on the ground running all

1018
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: over Kansas State. And Kansas State, I mean, they're just

1019
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 2: not a good team that they don't know how to

1020
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 2: trail by fourteen and get back in the game, right.

1021
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: I mean some of these other games, the thing against Oklahoma,

1022
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 2: there was you know, some miscues there by Oklahoma, and

1023
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 2: I think Kansas just had a thirty five percent post

1024
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: game win expectancy, so you could say there was probably

1025
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of luck involved in that. And I

1026
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 2: think Kansas has just run their course I mean, they

1027
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: had two huge games with their new offensive coordinator. Once

1028
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: you've got all his plays, the Jayhawks plays on tape,

1029
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 2: I think Kansas State was able. That's a good coach,

1030
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 2: Chris Cleman. But I just think this is a huge

1031
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 2: spot for Texas. I think they just run off the

1032
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 2: score here. It's my favorite play the week is Texas. Yeah.

1033
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: In Texas's secondary they're getting a couple guys back and

1034
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: really important guys, and like that's where they've been really vulnerable.

1035
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:57,760
Speaker 1: They've been one of the worst pasts eves in the country,

1036
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: not just Power five, and that's not Kansas State's game

1037
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 1: at all. I agree with you on Texas. All right,

1038
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Big Ten, and I

1039
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: am kind of regretting it because it means I have

1040
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: to talk about Northwestern, who I played already and you

1041
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: played already, Cats, Cats, Purdue. This they're gonna be win

1042
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: there's gonna be high wins here. It's gonna be cold

1043
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 1: noon kick in Evanston. Northwestern's offense is horrendous. I think

1044
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: they are bottom five in the country now. It's really bad.

1045
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 1: Their defense is really good, so the top twenty defense

1046
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: still in my book, and Perdue is down to their

1047
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: fourth fourth string quarterback. And if there's one thing Purdue

1048
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: can't do on offense, it is run the ball. They

1049
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: cannot run the ball worth a lick. They average two

1050
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 1: point six yards per carry. You know, the only two

1051
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 1: teams that average fewer Old Dominion and my favorite team, Akron.

1052
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 1: That's it. And now they're down to their fourth string

1053
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: quarterback and win. I don't know how they really score

1054
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 1: any touchdowns. Northwestern not the best unit on the field

1055
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: by far. With their defense, They're finally not playing an offense. It's,

1056
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 1: you know, just explosive that's going to eventually break a

1057
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 1: couple of plays. I think Northwestern finally gets another win here.

1058
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: Do you agree there? Yeah?

1059
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 2: I completely agree. I Power rated this game minus three.

1060
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: So I was sitting around on Monday at Northwestern plus one,

1061
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: and I said, I can't believe I'm taking Northwestern a

1062
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 2: team that is I think, had what six I don't

1063
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 2: want to six touchdowns all year. I mean it's I

1064
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 2: was reading what they're I was getting deep into the

1065
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,760
Speaker 2: special teams because I think special teams plays a really

1066
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 2: big role in this game, especially from a field position perspective.

1067
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 2: Purdue's had some monster problems with punting specifically. You know,

1068
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 2: Brom came out after the Nebraska's game and said, you know,

1069
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 2: we got lucky. Nebraska should have blocked some punts. Nebraska

1070
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 2: should have did this on special teams. Should have you know,

1071
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 2: should have won that game. It just plays into more

1072
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 2: corn Husker narrative that they they're finding new ways to

1073
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 2: lose games. But Purdue and Brom, I mean, he kind

1074
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,399
Speaker 2: of admitted after the game, like, you know that we

1075
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 2: have some serious miscues on special teams, and I think

1076
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 2: Northwestern's going to take complete advantage of that. Do I

1077
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 2: like them at two and a half or three? Probably not.

1078
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: I probably play the money line. I'm not sure I

1079
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 2: want to be laying points with Northwestern. It is the side,

1080
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 2: and it's the side that I'm on. But I think

1081
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 2: field position is a big deal. I think the rushing

1082
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 2: defense is a big deal. And produce starting this walk

1083
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 2: on kid at eight and O'Connell I think his name

1084
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 2: is so I mean, just Northwestern gets off the schneid here,

1085
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 2: Purdue's going to get their seventh loss and that's going

1086
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 2: to be the end of their bowl hopes. And then

1087
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: you know, Purdue's going to be a play on team

1088
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 2: next year. They are going to be a win total

1089
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 2: over You'll see next spring, all right.

1090
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: And then elsewhere in the Big Ten. We already talked

1091
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 1: about the big game in the Big Ten, but we

1092
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: also have another game involving two ranked teams Iowa Wisconsin.

1093
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's a nine and a half point favor with a

1094
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 1: total of thirty eight and a half Big Ten football

1095
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen. Also, you have Michigan State, a fourteen

1096
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite over Illinois. Pretty sure the

1097
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 1: books are going to need Michigan State there. I wanted

1098
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 1: to play bat Michigan State, and now it's over two

1099
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 1: touchdowns and they're missing some offensive players. It's bad. Any

1100
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,080
Speaker 1: thoughts on? And then Ohio States a forty two and

1101
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 1: a half point favorite at home against Maryland in a

1102
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 1: conference game. That's amazing, but I can't I think the

1103
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: line spot on.

1104
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, there's not gonna be a play for me

1105
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 2: on any of these. You know, I think Iowa Wisconsin

1106
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: is done correctly. I do like Wisconsin to win this game.

1107
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 2: You know, Iowa their problem is is they just they're

1108
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 2: so offensively inept and they're just so old school thinking

1109
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 2: that I don't. I think when they get behind they

1110
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 2: have a problem coming back, right. I mean, they just

1111
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,760
Speaker 2: don't have the type of game plan to ever be trailing.

1112
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 2: And I think Jonathan Taylor is going to have his way.

1113
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 2: He's gonna have plenty of successful runs here. Whether they

1114
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 2: cover the nine and a half or not, I don't know.

1115
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 2: The total is so low. It's a stay away game

1116
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 2: for me. Also, stay away from Michigan State. I don't

1117
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 2: know how with this offense you lay that much. And

1118
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 2: it's so funny to think about Illinois because a few

1119
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 2: weeks ago I was laying Illinois and week after week

1120
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 2: after week and getting yelled at like you can't play Illinois,

1121
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 2: And then here we are, They're one of the hottest

1122
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,439
Speaker 2: dogs of the weekend. But I think Michigan State finds

1123
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:49,839
Speaker 2: a way, at least from the way that I'm reading

1124
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: the market, They're going to find a way to blow

1125
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 2: out Illinois.

1126
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean, but this Iowa team against Wisconsin,

1127
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 1: this is the type of offensive Wisconsin could shut down.

1128
00:47:58,320 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 1: Remember earlier in the year they were just shutting every

1129
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: one out. This is the exact type of offense that

1130
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: they can completely shut down and potentially shut out. All right,

1131
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 1: let's move on to Conference USA one team. I think

1132
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,240
Speaker 1: you have to look at a Southern Miss. They're laying

1133
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 1: seven against your UAB Blazers, but you know Southern Miss

1134
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 1: is coming off of oh By. UAB played better than

1135
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 1: the box score indicated, and their quarterback, I believe, is

1136
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 1: questionable this week. Tyler Johnson got hurt last week. But

1137
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: if you look at who UAB has defeated this year, Rice, Utsa,

1138
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 1: O du what are those the three of the bottom

1139
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: five teams in the country. Before that, they lost to

1140
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky. Before that, they beat South Alabama. Before that,

1141
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 1: they wanted Acron and they get up twenty points to

1142
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: Acron somehow, and then they started the year with the

1143
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 1: win over Alabama State. I mean, come on, this UAB

1144
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 1: team has done nothing. We talk about Alabama and Minnesota schedule.

1145
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: This schedule is a clown show. So I think you

1146
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 1: gotta look at Southern Miss. But you want to you're

1147
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: interested in UABU Southern Miss as well? Right, what you

1148
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: got there?

1149
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I took you a B on open

1150
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 2: at seven. The thing got I thought I was getting great?

1151
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: Are gonna have great closing line value in the is

1152
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 2: people are looking at that thirty to zero lead on

1153
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 2: Tennessee and thinking, oh, UAB is a fraud. Well, yeah,

1154
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 2: I know. Their schedule is straight to schedules, one hundred

1155
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 2: and thirtyeighth of the nation. It's really bad. I understand that,

1156
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 2: But I don't think I can contractually can talk bad

1157
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 2: about Bill Clark and the UAB Blazers after everything they've

1158
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: they've done for us here on the podcast. But you know,

1159
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 2: I mean that thirty zero lead by Tennessee that was

1160
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 2: you know, there was three turnovers by UAB I think

1161
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 2: in the first quarter that got them behind. So you

1162
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: know what's what's Southern miss good at their passing success

1163
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 2: rate of twenty second their eleventh and explosiveness. UAB is

1164
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 2: fifth in the nation opponent passing success so they're really

1165
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 2: good at shutting teams passing game down. And you can't

1166
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,760
Speaker 2: have an explosive pass unless you have a successful pass.

1167
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 2: So I liked UAB at seven, but man, this number

1168
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: is all over the place. Got all the way down

1169
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 2: to four and a half, and then Southern mismoney came

1170
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 2: in hard and it's pushed all the way back up

1171
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,959
Speaker 2: to seven. Within the matter of like what the last

1172
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: twelve hours. So you know, the market's all over the place,

1173
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 2: everywhere between seven and four and a half. I'm gonna

1174
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 2: sit on my UAB plus seven. I don't think I'm

1175
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,720
Speaker 2: gonna buy out of it. I still trust this team,

1176
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: although what the market is telling me, I might be

1177
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 2: on the wrong side here.

1178
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: Anything on LA Tech North Texas.

1179
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 2: Wanted to say L Tech that Skip Holtz is going

1180
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:10,319
Speaker 2: to out coach Seth Latrell. I generally in the past.

1181
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 2: I think he has covered against Latrell and beaten North

1182
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 2: Texas every year. But there are some things with the

1183
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: l Tech passing defense I think Mason Fine is going

1184
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 2: to be able to take advantage of. So I do

1185
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: kind of like North Texas and the Me and Green here.

1186
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 1: Something's not right with North Texas and L TeX's the

1187
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: quietest seven to one team in the country. They are

1188
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 1: seven to one. They're five and a half point favorites

1189
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: there down in the we now down in rustin where

1190
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:36,760
Speaker 1: weird things happen. All right, let's move on to the

1191
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: section of the show that I've been dreading because we

1192
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: have to talk to the mass army and this is

1193
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: all the independence. I still can't figure out which side

1194
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: or which total I'm going with here. This game is

1195
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: still consuming my thoughts. It's that thirty five ish now

1196
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 1: the over under is sixty two, so Army is a

1197
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 1: thirty five point favorite at home. Anytime you have a

1198
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: double digit service academy double digit favorite service academy, I

1199
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 1: always look at a dog and then thirty five. I mean,

1200
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: you're talking about like thirty eight. Double digit Service academies

1201
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 1: are like forty percent against the spread historically even you know,

1202
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: since like two thousand and three four five, if you

1203
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:13,919
Speaker 1: go back to NXTS ninety even worse. It's the higher

1204
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: you go and the spread the sample size gets more,

1205
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 1: but the worse the results get. But then I have

1206
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: this UMass team who is an absolute dumpster fire. I mean,

1207
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: this team is so bad it is hard to put

1208
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: into words. I mean, I think they're like the maybe

1209
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 1: the two hundred and twentieth best team in the country

1210
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 1: when you include you know, FCS, NFBS teams, it's really bad.

1211
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 1: I mean Army. The only comparison I have is Army

1212
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: played Morgan State. They were laying forty five to Morgan State.

1213
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 1: U Mass might be as bad as Morgan State. I'm serious.

1214
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: But Army only won that game by thirty one. So

1215
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 1: you know, everything inside of me says, I have to

1216
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 1: take thirty five with a dog playing against an option team,

1217
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 1: a triple option service academy. But I just everything I've

1218
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 1: seen with this UMass team is it's bad. So I

1219
00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: think what I'm gonna do is potentially way to bet UMass.

1220
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 1: Second half. An Army is just really bleeding the clock out.

1221
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 1: Hopefully they have a big lead, they bring in some

1222
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: backups on defense, U mess gets some garbage points. An

1223
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: Army's been textbook all year in the way that you

1224
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 1: play them, and against Morgan State, Morgan State is one

1225
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in all of college football. Morgan

1226
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: State was up fourteen to seven at the end of

1227
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 1: the first quarter. Morgan State, I mean, this is a

1228
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 1: morgan State team. I've said Morgan State so many times

1229
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 1: in this bucket. Morgan State last week lost forty eight

1230
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 1: nothing to Norfolk State, and then in the opening game.

1231
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 1: You want to know, bet Morgan State is bow bowling

1232
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 1: Green beat them forty six to three in the opener

1233
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 1: forty six to three. So I mean, just laying this

1234
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 1: many points with Army is dumb. I will have more

1235
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: on this game, probably write it up, but I'm thinking

1236
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 1: second half as of right now.

1237
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 2: U Mass one hundred and thirtieth and defensively in line

1238
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 2: yards one hundred and thirtieth and stuff rate one hundred

1239
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 2: and twenty sixth and sacrate one hundred and eighteenth in opportunity.

1240
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,240
Speaker 2: The reason why I think um Mass ranks thirty yards.

1241
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 1: Rush before you ADJU just like that. They're playing against

1242
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,240
Speaker 1: teams that just start running dies when they're up fifty.

1243
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 2: U Mass, I think is ranked one hundred and thirtieth

1244
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 2: because there's only one hundred and thirty teams. I imagine

1245
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: if there was one hundred and sixty six teams, they'd

1246
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 2: be ranked one hundred and sixty six. There's not a

1247
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 2: spreadsheet in the world or an equation that can figure

1248
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:11,280
Speaker 2: out this damn game.

1249
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 1: Model breakers both these teams. Let's anything on liberty. We

1250
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:15,840
Speaker 1: got to get our shout out for our Liberty boys.

1251
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:17,320
Speaker 1: Any liberty BYU.

1252
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 2: I don't want any part of liberty here. Liberty's trench

1253
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 2: was pushed on both sides of the ball by Rutgers.

1254
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,800
Speaker 2: BYU has the Romney Boys, the Romney passing, Romney catching,

1255
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 2: you know, so I think BYU is going to be

1256
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 2: able to eat them up in the trench, considering what

1257
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 2: BYU is faced earlier this year, the number of opponents

1258
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 2: they've had. I think Liberty is just going to be

1259
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:36,760
Speaker 2: outmam in the trench.

1260
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Third straight road game also for Liberty, and this

1261
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,919
Speaker 1: is in altitude. All right, let's move on to the MAC.

1262
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 1: And look, I didn't bet any MAC games this week.

1263
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: During the week because I needed a break from the conference.

1264
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,399
Speaker 1: I couldn't figure out and it's been so unpredictable. There's

1265
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 1: no MAC games this weekend, Praise the Lord. Although we

1266
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 1: have Accrin on Tuesday trying to become the first team

1267
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 1: to avoid starting the season zero to ten against the spread.

1268
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: But there's no games this weekend. But I did want

1269
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,439
Speaker 1: to say, you know, no unpredictable the MAC is miad

1270
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 1: Ohio is going to go to the conference championship. I mean, what, yeah, unbelievable.

1271
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to that mount I'm not

1272
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 1: dedicating any more time to the MAC because there's no

1273
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: games on Saturday. That's all they deserve. All right, Let's

1274
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:17,760
Speaker 1: move on to the mountain. West Air Force New Mexico

1275
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: was moved due to the death of the New Mexico,

1276
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: the Lobol, the defensive tackle, rest in peace, and this

1277
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: right decision there, so that one's moved, I think to

1278
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks from now. But the game that

1279
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 1: i'm there's two games that really caught my eye. Here

1280
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: Wyoming Boise. They're off a bye, but Seawn Chambers their quarterback.

1281
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: They're running quarterback. They can't throw the ball is out now.

1282
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: Tyler Vanderbal who's been awful, he's more of a pocket passer.

1283
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 1: He's going to try to throw the ball. Boise got

1284
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: Bachmeyer back. I think a game under his belt. I

1285
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 1: think the defense will show up here. This has Boise

1286
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:50,479
Speaker 1: truck to me written all over it. And then later

1287
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 1: a night, Hawaii laying eight at home against San Jose State.

1288
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 1: This could spell trouble for San Jose State's secondary, but

1289
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: Santase State has been a covering machine. But Hawaii should

1290
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: throw all over the many thoughts on either one of

1291
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 1: those games.

1292
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Wyoming, you know, we wonder how Wyoming has been

1293
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 2: able to stay in these games. I mean, they're just

1294
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 2: their numbers are just atrocious. But what people don't realize

1295
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: is their havoc on both sides. Of the ball is

1296
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 2: what has been a deciding factor for them, and a

1297
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,720
Speaker 2: lot of these games, they're twenty first and defensive havoc,

1298
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: they're fourth and havoc allowed. Wyoming has only allowed twenty

1299
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:23,280
Speaker 2: eight tackles for loss. Nobody's getting into the Cowboys backfield whatsoever.

1300
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 2: So you know we're going to stick in another quarterback.

1301
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 2: See how that goes. But over fourteen points, even with

1302
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 2: the offensive line, I know it's a new quarterback. I

1303
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 2: think I think the spread is adjusting itself for that.

1304
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 2: I'm not trying to talk myself into a Wyoming but

1305
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 2: I think above fourteen, I'm gonna have to start considering

1306
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 2: them Hawaii, San Jose State. This total is seventy seven.

1307
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: I mean my projection is like, it's just shy of sixty.

1308
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 2: I mean I went into the numbers and I really

1309
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 2: tried to make a case. And this is I think

1310
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:51,920
Speaker 2: the Dick Tomy Inaugural Trophy Award games since he coached

1311
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 2: for both programs. I went into the numbers. I tried

1312
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 2: to make a case for the under but it's just

1313
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 2: so atrocious. What the past explosive desnumbers are for both teams.

1314
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:02,240
Speaker 2: I would not be shocked I think they can't.

1315
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 1: Run the ball. Also, they're worse. They're just gonna throw

1316
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:04,399
Speaker 1: it all game.

1317
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 2: That's right. We're just going out there and we're throwing

1318
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 2: it over the middle. We're gonna go thirty yards down

1319
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 2: the field on every single down. So even though my

1320
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 2: number says this should be an undergame, I can't find

1321
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 2: anyway either of these teams are getting stopp They're not

1322
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 2: getting stopped on third down, they're not getting stopped on

1323
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 2: first down, they're not getting stopped on any passing play.

1324
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 2: So I'm not saying advocated go out there and take

1325
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 2: an over seventy seven. That's a ridiculous number. Maybe take

1326
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 2: over first half, or maybe play it live and get

1327
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 2: less than So I don't know, but I can't. I

1328
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 2: can't suggest an under, and it's such a huge, outrageous number.

1329
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 1: YEP, I completely agree with you there. All right, let's

1330
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 1: move on quickly to the SEC as far as twenty

1331
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 1: six and a half pint favorite against Vanderbilt at noon.

1332
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 1: By the way, that game is oddly close some years,

1333
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: but vander goes down to what their third or four

1334
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 1: string quarterback bad for Vandy. Arkansas one point favorite at

1335
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: home against Western Kentucky. I feel we're going to see

1336
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 1: that later. I'll hold off on that. We already talked

1337
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 1: about LSU Bama Ole Miss twenty eight and a half

1338
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 1: point favorites against eight in New Mexico's date dumpster Fire.

1339
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:03,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't see much Kentucky a one point

1340
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 1: favorite at home against Tennessee, a hit one game year.

1341
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,839
Speaker 1: Anything you want to talk about in then SEC I'm going.

1342
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 2: To punt on the Tennessee UK's talk. I got an

1343
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 2: article out on the Action Network. You guys can go

1344
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 2: read about what I think about Lynn Bowden Junior and

1345
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee in this game about how that's going to go.

1346
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,440
Speaker 2: Arkansas Western Kentucky. Let me just throw it out there

1347
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 2: on a neutral site, Arkansas would be an underdog to

1348
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky. It's one of the most amazing things. Ty

1349
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 2: Story comes back for Western Kentucky. You would think Arkansas's

1350
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: defense would know Tay Story, the quarterback for Western Kentucky,

1351
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: really well since he was Arkansas's quarterback last year. But

1352
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 2: John Chavis in this defense has not been able to

1353
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 2: stop anything. So I expect Western Kentucky to be able

1354
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: to get something through the air, something on the ground,

1355
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 2: Arkansas's defense maybe worse than the nation. And then on

1356
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, we're playing kJ Jefferson.

1357
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 2: This is one of the highly rankedual threat quarterbacks we have.

1358
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 2: That's great, and he was able to move the ball

1359
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 2: last week in some garbage time Againssissippi State. But Western

1360
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: Kentucky can stop things on the ground like they're really

1361
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 2: good at defending. They were great against a triple option

1362
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 2: earlier this year. So I don't think that, you know,

1363
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 2: the defense is not I would say legit. But from

1364
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 2: a group of five standpoint, Western Kentucky has a pretty

1365
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 2: good defense. The fan base is controlling Chad Morris's actions

1366
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 2: now now that we're not Bowl eligible, and the crowd

1367
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 2: is desperate for some kJ Jefferson. So I think you know,

1368
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,919
Speaker 2: Argiza's defense can't stop. It can't stop anything. Take Western

1369
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 2: Kentucky here and the under and the under.

1370
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 1: All right, and before we go to three and out,

1371
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:24,479
Speaker 1: let's touch on the sun Belt. Give me one little

1372
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 1: tidbit people should keep in mind for the sun Belt.

1373
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, take youlm. They're gonna be able to control the

1374
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 2: clock with the groundbrush. I know I said this last week.

1375
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 2: They got up fourteen zero and then they just got

1376
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 2: blown out by Arkansas State. Georgia State's very one dimensional.

1377
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: ULM can do something about that. I like you ELM

1378
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 2: to control the game on the ground. Take them out

1379
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 2: straight up.

1380
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 1: All right, before we get out of here, let's go

1381
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:45,360
Speaker 1: three and out.

1382
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1383
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: Let's talk Friday night lights. Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes,

1384
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 1: full hearts. Hey, let's go play some football. This Tolson

1385
00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 1: team every week they get three extra points just because

1386
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:02,439
Speaker 1: you're Tulsa and there's value on them as a dog,

1387
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: and they usually cover or they just not cover in

1388
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 1: excruciating fashion. See Oklahoma State or last week Aainst. Tulane

1389
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 1: in a game they really should have covered. Both those games.

1390
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 1: They're catching seventeen against Central Florida. That line looks like

1391
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: it's already risen to seventy, looks like it might tick

1392
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 1: up maybe to seventeen and a half. I'm sure you'll

1393
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 1: get that at some point. Everyone and their mother will

1394
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 1: be on UCF. And we also have Washington, tough team

1395
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 1: to figure out this year. They're five and four. They're

1396
00:59:28,640 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 1: ten and a half point favorites at Oregon State over

1397
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 1: under sixty five you like anything on Friday night.

1398
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm going to play in both games.

1399
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 2: I like the Tulsa side, especially if it gets a

1400
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half. I did like the under I

1401
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 2: wrote it up yesterday and the Unders already kicked down

1402
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 2: a sixty nine and a half. Historically, this has been

1403
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 2: a huge challenge for Central Florida in this game. The

1404
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 2: Knights have beaten Tulsa just once in their past seven tries.

1405
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 2: I think it's a problem with a three three five

1406
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: defense that the Golden Hurricanes are able to play. I

1407
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 2: think that this is just going to be a spot

1408
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 2: for Tulsa their motivation. Though they're now eligible anymore, they

1409
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 2: have enough losses where they're going to be counted out,

1410
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 2: so I think that needs to be taken into account.

1411
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 2: But I am going to be playing Tulsa and then

1412
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 2: Washington and Oregon State. I just feel like, you know,

1413
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,480
Speaker 2: Oregon State has finally been able to break through. They

1414
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 2: got some conference wins, they're rolling. There's a tough place

1415
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 2: to play in Corvallis. We'll see if Washington can pick

1416
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 2: themselves up off the mat after they have really nothing

1417
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 2: to play for. But the Beavers are outside the top

1418
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten in opponent rush and pass explosiveness.

1419
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 2: I mean, Jacob Easton should have some success in a

1420
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 2: rebound game off of a Utah loss. I mean, if

1421
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 2: they have any dignity and they play anywhere near their talent,

1422
01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 2: they should beat and cover Oregon State on the road.

1423
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 2: I know our projection makes this about minus eight point

1424
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 2: five with a total of fifty four. But I'm going

1425
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: to be looking to play a little bit of Washington

1426
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:45,520
Speaker 2: here and you know, possibly play and under you know,

1427
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:46,920
Speaker 2: once we get to a key number.

1428
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: And let's go second down and talk favorite overdog.

1429
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 2: It's called the overdog parlay.

1430
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:53,439
Speaker 1: Where are you going here?

1431
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 2: Put in Texas in every single thing that I can

1432
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 2: side money line doesn't matter Texas.

1433
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 1: Just to be funny, because I haven't finished up my

1434
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: entire card yet, I'll say my favorite favorite of the

1435
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 1: week so far is Northwestern two point favorite. It's the

1436
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 1: only game I bet so far on Saturday, so it

1437
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 1: has to be my favorite favorite as of now. All right,

1438
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, on third down, let's

1439
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 1: do our money line underdog parlay.

1440
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1441
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. I already said mine. Look,

1442
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 1: I think it's a there's a lot of different variables

1443
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:32,520
Speaker 1: in this game that people are trying to guess at.

1444
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 1: So I think that the player, if you want to

1445
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 1: play it is you know, if you want to play

1446
01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 1: LSU and it doesn't go over seven, is the LSU

1447
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 1: money line. You know, if two is banged up and

1448
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 1: if this you know, Alabama defense gets exploited and it doesn't.

1449
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 1: You know, they're not as good as they usually are

1450
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 1: and we've seen in the past because they haven't played anybody.

1451
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna throw LSU in there with all the

1452
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 1: variants that I'm expecting, with so many variables that we're

1453
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 1: all trying to guess at.

1454
01:01:57,880 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Western and I like it.

1455
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Western Kentucky. I know that's not

1456
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 2: that big of an underdog, but hey, this is a

1457
01:02:03,800 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: huge spot for ty Story their quarterback to come in.

1458
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 2: But Arkansas's defense, like I said, can't stop anybody. And

1459
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 2: then go and look at Arkansas in the red zone

1460
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty first in the nation and scoring

1461
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 2: percentage one hundred and ninth and TD scoring percentage. Western

1462
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: Kentucky's like top twenty in opponent red zone scoring percentage.

1463
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 2: There's going to be a lot. Arkansas may be able

1464
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 2: to move the ball with grand Baby, and they may

1465
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:25,480
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball with kJ Jefferson, but

1466
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 2: they don't know what the hell they're doing once they

1467
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 2: get to the twenty yard line Western Kentucky for me.

1468
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 1: There you have it. Thanks for listening, Thanks for joining me, Colin,

1469
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 1: and thanks again to Brody Miller. Don't forget about the

1470
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:39,200
Speaker 1: voicemails this weekend. Call you know, scream, cry yell five

1471
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: seven five six five five yeo six sixty four. You'll

1472
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 1: find that number on my Twitter. We'll catch you all

1473
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 1: Saturday morning on the Live show. Thanks for listening, good

1474
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 1: luck this weekend, and we'll catch you all later. Cheers,

1475
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 1: peace out,