1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: read enough. 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet. 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time. 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind? Good buddy, and. 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 4: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most. 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 5: Nobody picks them. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying. 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 4: The one. It's left too, the wide eyed. 14 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: Drilled bibus. 15 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happens? 16 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast 17 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeba. Joining 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: me will be my friends and co hosts, Anthony Debundo 19 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: and BJ Cunningham. But before I bring in those two 20 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: handsome lads, a reminder that wonder Goal is proudly presented 21 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code Action to get BET three 23 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 1: six five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. 25 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 1: You must be twenty one or older. The offer is 26 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, the United States. 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: And if you think you have a gambling problem, please 28 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:37,199 Speaker 1: call or text twenty eight hundred gambler Anthony and BJ. 29 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: We are. 30 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: Getting down to the nitty gritty the penultimate weekend of 31 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: Thank YOUSI, Thank goodness is right. Yeah, we're we're there, 32 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: but there's still a lot to a lot to settle, 33 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: most notably at the bottom of the table. But we'll 34 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: start at the top, and we'll start with Man City 35 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: with a chance to clinch their third straight title. What 36 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: is it five and six years for them and their 37 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: minus four hundred at home to Chelsea, Frank Lampard's Chelsea, 38 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 1: Mariso Pocertino's Chelsea. Whose Chelsea is at these days? I 39 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: don't know. The jaw is plus five fifty here on 40 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: the three way line. Thanks for thanks about three six 41 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: five for these odds and all the odds we will 42 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: reference tonight. This has been an exercise of kind of 43 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: brought up a couple of times then as we've gotten 44 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,119 Speaker 1: down the stretch, just to kind of illustrate how it's 45 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: so hard to really you have like a really clean 46 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: grasp of how a season's gonna unfold. And if I 47 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: showed you City minus four hundred at home to Chelsea 48 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: in the second to last weekend of this season, what 49 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: you have thought if I showed you this on August first, 50 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: Chelsea just resting everybody? They did? They have a game 51 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: like the next day what was going on? And it's 52 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: been weirder than that, honestly. But I mean you can't. 53 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: I don't see how you can lay the number with 54 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: City here. I mean, if you want to go ahead 55 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: and bet them like minus three and a half, you 56 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: think that they'll just tear apart Chelsea go right ahead, 57 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: But I don't know, feels a little let downy Chelsea 58 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: are up and at him all of a sudden under 59 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: Frank and he's had some success against Pep, most notably 60 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: in his time at Everdon. Anyways, pretty excited to meet 61 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: anybody out there who's betting Chelsea here, BJ What about you? 62 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 5: Yeah? 63 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 4: No, if anything could be both teams to score no 64 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 4: for me, that would probably be it. I mean the 65 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 4: thing about it is is, I mean Chelsea, I have 66 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 4: no idea if they care or not, Like I have 67 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 4: no idea. 68 00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 5: Their heads are aunt. 69 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: It's really funny though to see the head lines of 70 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 4: being like poach, Tino is going to do a big 71 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 4: summer rebuild in the transfer market after Chelsea just spent 72 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 4: six hundred million dollars on new players. But it's specifically 73 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: for this match. I mean Real Madrid could not play. 74 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 4: I mean, I mean credit to you, Anthony, You're right, 75 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 4: Real Madrid could not play out of the back today 76 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 4: against Manchester City. I mean City had twelve high turnovers 77 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 4: and just pinned them in the entire time. So what 78 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 4: is Chelsea gonna do, especially since they don't have a 79 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 4: number nine right now? They can actually they can throw 80 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 4: the ball into play in transition. 81 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 5: So it's a pass for me. 82 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's very hard once we get later 83 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 4: in the season to muster up the courage to even 84 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 4: make a bet, like, you know, both teams to score, 85 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 4: both team to score no on a team that. 86 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 5: Just doesn't care. It's very, very difficult. So I'll probably 87 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 5: end up just passing. 88 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: Maybe they will care, though maybe they will, I don't know. 89 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 4: And that's the thing is we don't know. That's the problem. 90 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but you know, look they're on a two 91 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: match on beaten streak. Frank Lampard's Chelsea coming off of 92 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: a very gutsy to two draw against nodding Forest. It 93 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: followed that following up a three to one win against Bournemouth. 94 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: Like the thing is that they couldn't. They're like there 95 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: was still a respectable defensive outfit, Like they could, they can. 96 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 1: They're ceiling in this match is like grinding out one 97 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: one nill I think. And just those first like what 98 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: twenty five thirty minutes that Everton put together before City scored, 99 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 1: just doing that tripling it, you know, doing it for 100 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: ninety minutes. It's it's a long shot. That's why they're 101 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: eight to one. Like you said, you have no idea 102 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: if they care. This match is on Sunday too, and 103 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: I think that it kind of matters what Arsenal do. 104 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 1: And I think, so that's kind of what I'm looking 105 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: at here right Arsenal plays Forest twelve thirty on Saturday. 106 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: If Arsenal lose, If Arsenal lose, it's over. It's over. 107 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: Like yep, I. 108 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: Think what is if if Arsenal. 109 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 2: Already over, if Arsenal draw, it's over to Yeah exactly, 110 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 2: so I mean not technically because a goal difference, but. 111 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 5: Yeah, Deserbi killed it. It's over. 112 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: But well it was killed. 113 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: You get the gist of it. It's not it's not 114 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: it's not a it died at anfield that for being honest, No, 115 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: it died when they got out played week one by 116 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, but still one very luckily. 117 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 2: For regression ever said exactly that moment. 118 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that if if Arsenal don't win 119 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 1: that match, and they're a big favorite to do so, 120 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 1: but we'll talk about that in a little bit with 121 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: a couple of us might think for us or sneaky, 122 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: then I think Chelsea becomes pretty appetizing as a bet, 123 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: like and I don't know how quickly it'll adjust, just 124 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: because I City might be out celebrating, like they could 125 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: be celebrating the title on Saturday night. So keep keep 126 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: that in mind. If if for score a goal, I 127 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: think you should just lash a bet on the Chelsea 128 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: money line, Like if they score a goal to go 129 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: ahead in that Arsenal game, Anthony, what do you think? O? 130 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: Look, I don't think Chelsea are going to have much 131 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 2: of a chance to win this match. I think that 132 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 2: City will probably have their way with Chelsea's defense. But 133 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: I'm surprised at how low. Chelsea's odds to score were. 134 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: I know Everton was at home, but like Everton was 135 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: just minus one ten to score created over one and 136 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: a half. XG took six shots from inside the City 137 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: six yard box into match and somehow did not score. Look, 138 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: City just turned in. Bja mentioned the twelve high turnovers. 139 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 2: They poured everything on the field today in that pressing display. 140 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: And we've seen this now back to back weeks where 141 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 2: after a really big midweek match, City rotates on the 142 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 2: weekend a little bit, doesn't have quite the same intensity, 143 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 2: doesn't look quite as dominant. It's very hard to keep 144 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: up the level play they had today. And look, I 145 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 2: know PJNI had City and whatever, but that level of 146 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: dominance the whole world just watched. I don't expect them 147 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 2: to replicate that level of intensity again. And Chelsea's better 148 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 2: at playing out from the back than Real Madrid is. 149 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: It's just something I think they would be more successful with. 150 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: So it would be team total over both teams to score. 151 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: For me, I'm waiting until we see more on Saturday, 152 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: because I agree with Michael that if Forrest does win 153 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 2: or get a result, becomes more of a party atmosphere 154 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: for Saturday, for. 155 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: Say, I think Andrea Bocelli will come out exactly and 156 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 1: I think. 157 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 2: You know, this becomes essentially a dead rubber and that 158 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 2: increases the goals. I think you'll actually see the market 159 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: respond to that this total will go up. If Forrest 160 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 2: were to pull it off on Saturday. I'm not saying 161 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 2: they will, but they could. And from a matchup perspective, 162 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 2: I mean, this is a Chelsea team that's now scored 163 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 2: six goals in the last three games, so it's not 164 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: like they've quit quit. You know, they're they're they're given 165 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 2: the effort. I know, you know, they played Bournemouth, they 166 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 2: played not Eam Forrest. Those are two of the four 167 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 2: worst defenses in the league. City is the best. But 168 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 2: you know minus one ten is the lowest I've seen 169 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: on BTTs there. That's about what I projected at. But again, 170 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: like I said, given the you know regression coming for 171 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 2: both sides here, I think there's a chance of a 172 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: somewhat rotated City and Chelsea have nothing to lose here, 173 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 2: so why not go for it? 174 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: Play spoiler, Yeah, place spoiler for. 175 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:33,959 Speaker 5: Their fellow London club. 176 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 2: Yeah, this just screams like two two three one to City. 177 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: To me, all right, let's talk about that Forest Arsenal game. 178 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: It's taking place at the city ground. Forest plus four 179 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: seventy five Arsenal minus one seventy five the draw plus 180 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: three twenty BJ. I'll flip it to you right away. 181 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: But I I'm I think Forrest is actually no the 182 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: right side here. But I know you're gonna disagree here. 183 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: But he was a little lame ducky. 184 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 4: I mean yes in theory, but you know, Arsenal technically 185 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 4: when the match kicks offs will still be alive for 186 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 4: the Premier League titles, so it still will matter to them. 187 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 4: And listen, I mean, Arsenal outside of Manchester City has 188 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 4: been one of the best teams in the Premier League 189 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 4: at breaking down low blocks this season against Bournemouth, Nottingham, Forrest, Brentford, Tottenham, 190 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 4: west Ham and Fulham essentially teams that play low blocks 191 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 4: and like to play in transition. Arsenal is averaging two 192 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 4: point zero five expected goals per match. And you know 193 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 4: it's something that we've talked about a lot. But what 194 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,319 Speaker 4: Arsenal's able to do in their build up play by 195 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,440 Speaker 4: invertings in chenko in the middle of the pitch, they're 196 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 4: able to build up in a three two five shape, 197 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 4: compress the back line, create overloads. It's something that you 198 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 4: saw Liverpool do to Nottingham Forest and they created close 199 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 4: to three expected goal, three expected goals and scored three times. 200 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 4: And I mean, listen, we're Arsenal ran into problems against Brighton. 201 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: Is Brighton just they bullied them and build up play 202 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 4: like they man mark pressed them and ar was not 203 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 4: able to play out through that. Nottingham Forrest is not 204 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 4: going to do that to Arsenal. They're going to sit back. 205 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 4: They are dead last and passed per defensive action, they're 206 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 4: dead last and opponent build up completion percentage allowed and 207 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 4: second to last and high turnovers and their defensive results 208 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 4: have been bad overall for the season. But when you 209 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 4: have playing a team like Arsenal the way that they 210 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 4: can break down low blocks, it gets really bad. So 211 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 4: this season against City, Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Newcastle and United, 212 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 4: Nottingham Forrest has allowed twenty six point four expected goals 213 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 4: in those eleven matches. So I think this is a 214 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 4: fantastic matchup for Arsenal. I get the spot. Like I know, 215 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 4: Nottingham Forrest has had decent results against Big six clubs 216 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 4: at the city ground. But I mean the matchup is 217 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 4: terrible for them, trying to keep this Arsenal offense out 218 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 4: with a very poor low block like we've seen all season. 219 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 5: So like Arsenal minus one, can. 220 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: You can you stop our man? Tiwo? Can anybody snap them? 221 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 2: Red hot tai Wo? 222 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 1: Yeah? And I don't think anybody could stap them. 223 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 5: He wishes he was still at Yon Villain. 224 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: Well, he had to. He had to go to clear 225 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 2: the way for Shiraldo Becker. 226 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 5: That's true. 227 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: Uh, Champions League Anthony, where where are we going to 228 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: find you for this one? I feel like I feel 229 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: like the tricky trees they're calling your name here. 230 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 2: They are not at the current number, but I am close. 231 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,199 Speaker 2: Uh you know, I think if I can get the 232 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 2: goal in a quarter, I will take forrest. I'm not 233 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 2: going to force a play just to have a play. 234 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 2: But I don't know how it's a good spot for Arsenal. 235 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 2: I think like this is the dream crusher in a way. 236 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 2: And when you when you talk about uh, situations like 237 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 2: the match after your your title dream dies, you have 238 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 2: to go on the road against a desperate relegation team 239 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 2: from a narrative standpoint. I don't like the spot for Arsenal. 240 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure that the number is good enough right. 241 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: I bet not even Forest plus one at home against 242 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: Chelsea in December, I bet United plus one at home. 243 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 2: I bet Forest plus one at home against United a 244 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. Now it's Arsenal. So we keep 245 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: going up the ladder on the power rankings, on how 246 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: I have to bet these teams plus one against UH 247 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: or for you know, Forest plus one against Team X. 248 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: And so I really don't want to pay the tax here, 249 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 2: which I think you're getting a little bit of on 250 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,439 Speaker 2: the number because of the spot for Arsenal. So I'm 251 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 2: going to be a stay away here, but it would 252 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 2: be forced and nothing for me if you if you 253 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 2: really want action on this match. I think the trees 254 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 2: don't match up well either disrupt Arsenal's build up enough. 255 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 2: I just think it's kind of tricky. But again that 256 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 2: Arsenal defense continues to lead goals, and their performances away 257 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: from home and at home really have been so bad 258 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: defensively in the last two months that it's hard to 259 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: trust them laying big spreads. 260 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: They've won twice in what their last seven games, and 261 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: the quality of competition is I would say a little lacking. 262 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: Pretty pretty fortunate win against Newcastle. Only game where they 263 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 2: were truly dominant. 264 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: Uhla the Chelsea game. Yeah, and like you've given up. 265 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: They gave up two to Liverpool, two to West hamp 266 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: three to Southampton Florida City. I'll see clean sheet against Newcastle. 267 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: That's three to Brighton. 268 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 2: Newcastle with the post twice in that game and create 269 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 2: over one and a half XG. Like it was not 270 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: a comprehensive Arsenal win. This is the point, Like the 271 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 2: defense it's been, it's been really bad and it's interesting. 272 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:15,959 Speaker 2: I should give credit. I'm gonna find out who said 273 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,439 Speaker 2: it and come back to it. But somebody on Arsenal 274 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 2: Twitter that does a lot of analytics stuff basically did 275 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 2: the chart of like what happened to Arsenal because obviously 276 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: the defense is worse. Well, they're allowing about the same 277 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 2: number of final third entries, they're allowing about the same 278 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 2: amount of pass completions, but it's been box entries and 279 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 2: then just not being as efficient at defending the actual 280 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: penalty area. And it's something I've said earlier in the year, 281 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 2: which is like they're not going to keep up this 282 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 2: rate of defending their penalty area. They're allowing enough into 283 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: their box that the goals are going to start coming. 284 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 2: And they lose Saliba and I think his his loss 285 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 2: has really hurt. And now they lose Zinchenko for the 286 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: year too. So like there's a lot of holes in 287 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: this back line that make me think maybe we should 288 00:14:58,560 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 2: just bet the over. 289 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: Forced For me, I just don't think Arsenal's no, no, 290 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: it's not just a spot like they just they've been scary. 291 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: They've they've looked like they've looked a little like Tottenham 292 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: Hotspur has for patches this season. Let's talk about Spurs 293 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: minus won twenty odds on favorites against Brentford, the Bees 294 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: sitting around plus three thirty actually plus three hundred, the 295 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: draws plus two ninety. I've been Tony. That situation has 296 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: seemingly been finalized. Tony is suspended until January twenty twenty 297 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: four for breaching FA regulations about betting. Still like I 298 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: think year it's it's got to be Brentford or nothing 299 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: of the spot, Like Spurs are maddening, maddeningly consistent. It's 300 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: I mean, we've been trying to tell anent toy off 301 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: season that this team hasn't been good, but he just 302 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: kept fighting back on it, and I. 303 00:15:59,320 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 5: Know he wouldn't. 304 00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: Like they just wouldn't listen to us. They just would 305 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: not trying to tell us that they were just because 306 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: they were last year. And they'll turn the corner in 307 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: the corner, They'll turn the corner. 308 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 5: Everything will be fine. 309 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: I'll tell you. I did say they're more likely to 310 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 2: finish eighth and fourth, and they are in a tie 311 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 2: for seventh. 312 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: They are. They've got one win, four losses and a draw, 313 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: and they're last six matches. I feel like there's just 314 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: no pattern to how their games play out either. They 315 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: seem very I mean in part of it obviously is 316 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: turnover with man and gerial stuff, and I think that 317 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a transition in the squad, 318 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: and I just find that to be right for the 319 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: picking against a team like Brentford, which everybody they have 320 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: their game script every game and they play to It's 321 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: it's what makes them so dangerous in these spots against 322 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: bigger clubs. So, believe it or not, I'm on the 323 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: bees BJ. What about you? 324 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm passing you know, this is about the same 325 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 4: number that we saw Tottenham against Crystal Palace two weeks ago, 326 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 4: and you know Toddam created one expected goal, won the 327 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 4: match one nothing. So it basically has to be your 328 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 4: perception of what you think Brentford is without Ivan Tooni. 329 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 4: If they are similar to Crystal Palace and without Ivan Tooni, 330 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 4: I don't think Brentford is a significantly better team than 331 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,239 Speaker 4: Crystal Palace at this point in the season. So I 332 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 4: have this number projected right on around where it is. 333 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 4: Like you said, Michael, the form for Totten, it's just 334 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 4: so weird back and forth. So there's just a lot 335 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 4: going on here that's you know, makes me very uncomfortable 336 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 4: to bet either side. 337 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 5: So I think this is an easy pass. 338 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: All right, Tony, what do you got not the under. 339 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: Tottenham played a really poor game against Villa. They continuously 340 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 2: tried to get Son and behind and he was offside 341 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 2: every single time. They played a midfield that was pretty 342 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 2: lack luster in terms of pressing ability, in terms of 343 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 2: passing ability, and they really were outplayed for like sixty minutes. 344 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 2: They brought on Basuma. Assuma is a much better presser. 345 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 2: They instantly got better with him out there, but like 346 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 2: the passing is just bad and Brentford's not going to 347 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: play that same high line that's gonna let them get 348 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 2: people in behind. So I really think Tottham struggles to 349 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 2: break down Brentford here. I think it's going to be 350 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 2: a very ugly game. The Bees counter attack is certainly 351 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 2: blunted without Tony. I know that, you know, I like 352 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 2: Lisa and Wayne has been fine, but he you know, 353 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 2: he's he's a goal every other game striker and just 354 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 2: taking him out is a significant loss. Brentford's biggest advantages 355 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 2: have been set pieces. That's where Tottenham's good, so I 356 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: think they kind of cancel each other out in that way. 357 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 2: I like the under If you go back to remember 358 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: they played on Boxing Day, Brentford went up to nil. 359 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 2: It was a really ugly match where Spurs could not 360 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 2: build out from the back at all, and Brentford actually 361 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 2: did some more pressing in that and then Spurs kind 362 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 2: of went more direct and kind of solved the problem. 363 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: I think Brentford will not be near is aggressive you're 364 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 2: away from home. I know there's the beach risk because 365 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 2: like Brentford's kind of done now, But I like the 366 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 2: under a two and three quarters. It's close to three. 367 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait a little bit to see if we 368 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 2: get maybe a little market movement and i can get 369 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 2: the three minus one three five. But I'm okay with 370 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: two point seventy five minus one oh five. I think 371 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: that's awfully high. I would have this close to two and. 372 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: A half, all right. Bournemouth next, they're plus four seventy 373 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: five at home hosting United minus two hundred on the 374 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: road to draw is plus three seventy five Bournemous on 375 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: the beach. United plenty to play for in this race 376 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: for the top four. That's got pretty interesting. Newcastle and 377 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: United on sixty six points. Newcastle please on Thursday. Liverpool 378 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: sixty five points and if you want to throw up 379 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: Brentford in there, go right ahead there at fifty eight 380 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: and would need a miracle. But excuse me, Brighton big, 381 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: all of us are kind of an agreement here that 382 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 1: there is a you know, you just kind of referenced 383 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: the beach tax, Anthony, and you meant it the other 384 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 1: way like or you're afraid of a team on the beach, 385 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: and I think that we're going to play into a 386 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: team like the must win tax here on United, which 387 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: looks a little short at minus two hundred against Bournemouth, 388 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 1: so I think I'll be on the cherries. They've been dangerous. 389 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 1: I don't think a team like this is a threat 390 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 1: to be on the beach because, like you know, they 391 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: this has been a hugely successful season for them back 392 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: in the Premier League, defying the odds. And it's Manchester United, 393 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,439 Speaker 1: so you're never going to be on the beach when 394 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 1: you're hosting United. I like the money line looks like 395 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: all three of us are in agreement on what side, 396 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: but you two, of course, will be playing a little safer. 397 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 2: Anthony Well last home match of the year too. Yeah, 398 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 2: and it's against man United, so like you do, expect 399 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 2: it a good effort, good showing they're gonna give it 400 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 2: a go. United did get Rashford back in training, so 401 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 2: that's notable. But you know this comes down to the number. 402 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 2: For me, I only have them favored by about three 403 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 2: quarters of a goal, so I'm going to take the 404 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 2: full goal. I also don't hate playing the plus a 405 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 2: half because it is the kind of game where if 406 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 2: Bournemouth falls behind and United's able to get in their 407 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 2: transition ways, they can kind of you know, get at 408 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 2: Bournemuth in transition, which is where United is of course 409 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 2: at their best as always, but from a matchup perspective, 410 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 2: Cherry's attacks just been really good. And there's a lot 411 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 2: of pressure on United to win this match, and teams 412 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 2: tend to struggle under that kind of pressure on the road. 413 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the Cherries at home. Mostly 414 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 2: just the numbers play for me. 415 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, jump on in. 416 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, So this, I mean, Anthony's dead on. I 417 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 4: mean this is just must win tax inflated United, I 418 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 4: mean bourne myth. Since we got back from the World Cup. 419 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 4: Their offense has obviously been much better since January transfer windows, 420 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,360 Speaker 4: since they retooled their attacks some money. Last seventeen matches, 421 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 4: they've created twenty three point two expected goals and they've 422 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 4: only scored nineteen of those, so they've actually underperformed in 423 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 4: that expected goals total. Is actually top ten in the 424 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 4: Premier League over that timeframe. And I think, you know, 425 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 4: this is something I've obviously said, but I think they've 426 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 4: kind of taken the blueprint that's made Brentford so successful. 427 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 4: It's just putting a big time emphasis on those transitional opportunities, 428 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 4: creating big scoring chances, not getting a lot of shots, 429 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 4: but also being incredibly efficient on set pieces. I mean Bournemouth, 430 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 4: they're top three an xte per set piece this season, 431 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 4: which is very impressive. Now, the defense overall has been 432 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 4: bad all season long, but they've been running. 433 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 5: Pretty bad lately. 434 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 4: They've conceded ten goals in their last six matches, off 435 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 4: to six point seven expected, and they're probably going to 436 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 4: sit back. They're probably not going to press United and 437 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 4: build up play, which would be a mistake I think, 438 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 4: because that's how teams. 439 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 5: Have given United a lot of trouble. 440 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 4: But Anthony mentioned if Rashford is out, I mean, Anthony's 441 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 4: been hit the nail on the head for weeks now 442 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 4: that the United attack has just so reliant on him 443 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,399 Speaker 4: and without him, it's it's troublesome of how United is 444 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 4: gonna break down a team that's gonna sit ten guys 445 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 4: behind the ball and really defend their penalty area very 446 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 4: very well. 447 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 5: So yeah, I agree with that, Athony. 448 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 4: I have United at minus one thirty six, so I 449 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 4: like Brentford or Brentford Bourne myth plus one at plus 450 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 4: one ten. 451 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, Anthony's been increasing his production you know, his shots 452 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 2: are up, his exg's up. It's not just long prayers. 453 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 2: He's also assisting more so, I've been impressed by Anthony 454 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 2: kind of settling in improving and really saving United at 455 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: times because Rashford has missed more matches the second half 456 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 2: and they've really made up for it. But yeah, it's 457 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 2: born with here. I really can't get anywhere near the number. 458 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 4: And one more thing to add United nineteenth and final 459 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 4: third penalty box conversion rate allowed. So that usually is 460 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 4: significant for teams, not only for teams like United who 461 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 4: control a lot of possession. A lot of those chances 462 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,719 Speaker 4: are come in transition, so uh, kind of concerning when 463 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 4: you're facing a team that basically creates only in transition. 464 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: Ball him in Palace in a beach ball. 465 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 5: I'll read up these need I need this. I need 466 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 5: this one. Yeah, I need I need, I need palace. 467 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 5: This is the one we have. 468 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 2: What over forty five and a half on p forty 469 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 2: six and a half. 470 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 5: I need this one really badly. I don't get it. 471 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 4: It's it's done, which you know, which would be mean 472 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 4: because you know Roy and by the way, I don't 473 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 4: know if you saw Michael. They're talking about stending Roy 474 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 4: one more year. 475 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, why not? He's a we haven't really seen what 476 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: he's got yet. I would say, right, Roy exactly like 477 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: you know, you don't you don't wanna, you don't wanna 478 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: be unsure and regret not giving him uh a fair 479 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: shake of it. Let's say, so bring back Roy this. 480 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 5: You know what this is like. 481 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 4: I mean, this is clearly like a situation where you've 482 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,199 Speaker 4: been in a relationship with somebody, you break up, you 483 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 4: go your separate ways for about two or three years, 484 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 4: and then you know what, you reconnect and everything's good 485 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 4: for like a couple of months and you say, you 486 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 4: know what, let's get together just for a little while longer. 487 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 4: You know it was so good, and then you know 488 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 4: that's when things kind. 489 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 5: Of fall fall apart. 490 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: But you know what, God love them. 491 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 5: It's Palace's mistake to make. 492 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: Bullem's plus one forty five, Palas plus one ninety and 493 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 1: the draw plus two forty. I know you two will 494 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: be sweating Palace and Rudiferum, but none of us have 495 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: anything betting wise for this one. So we can move 496 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: to Liverpool and Villa the Reds minus two twenty three 497 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: hosting Uniamris Villa plus five twenty five. The draw is 498 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,120 Speaker 1: plus four hundred. Liverpool's come alive down the stretch here. 499 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 1: They also announced that this will be I believe the 500 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: last home match for James Milner, Roberto Fermino, Naby Kaita, 501 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: Alex Oxley Chamberlain. I think I think that's it. And 502 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: they've kind of been just better defensively lately. I mean 503 00:25:54,600 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: you look at their XG against numbers since getting an 504 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: April they they've just started to trend up in the 505 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: right direction. They've obviously won a bushel of games in 506 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: a row, up to seven on the spin. And we 507 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 1: know what this Villa, this Villa team is all about. Antony, 508 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 1: you're the only one with the play here. But I 509 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 1: would have you would have thought, like like four or 510 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: five weeks ago, I probably would have had the circle 511 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 1: as a Villa spot. But it does seem like Liverpool 512 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: is rolling and I'll focus my attention on a couple 513 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: other underdogs. 514 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've had to bump Liverpool's defense because this tactical 515 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 2: change with Alexander Arnold is really working. Credit to Jurgen 516 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 2: Klop he's a pretty smart guy. He's a he's an 517 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 2: excellent manager. He knows how to get the best out 518 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 2: of his players at all times most times. And you know, 519 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 2: the decision to move Trenton to midfield has improved their 520 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 2: ball retention rate, so when they lose possession, their ability 521 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: to win it back before getting transitioned and getting destroyed. 522 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 2: It's improved because you know, when you have less from 523 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,679 Speaker 2: Fabinho and Thiago and you need to cover for them 524 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 2: while putting a younger guy who isn't a great defender 525 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 2: but can run a little and do some defensive work 526 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 2: in the middle, and of course everybody knows how good 527 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: trending is going forward, it's put him in a more 528 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 2: advantageous space to be a productive attacker. Now I played Villa. 529 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 2: Now remember the first meeting between these two teams, Villa 530 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 2: was plus one at home. Now they're plus one at anfield, 531 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 2: which is kind of a point of how much the 532 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 2: market has risen on this Villa team. They played a 533 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 2: super high line, they were very committed to playing out 534 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 2: from the back and it was a disaster. I mean, 535 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 2: they conceded a ton of chances to Liverpool. They created 536 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 2: some of their own. There were chances at both ends, 537 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 2: for sure, but they were really struggling to play out 538 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 2: from pressure and Nunez was in behind seemingly every three minutes, 539 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 2: and so I think it's gonna be a big problem 540 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 2: because they tried the same thing aast Tottenham last week 541 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 2: at Spurs or at home against Spurs, and I just 542 00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 2: talked about this earlier, but like Tottenham was so cool 543 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 2: on like three separate occasions, and Toddham does not have 544 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 2: the midfield quality and the passing ability that Liverpool has. 545 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 2: So I took Liverpool first half money line. I think 546 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 2: they come out and buzz saw them at home and 547 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 2: I took some team total over two and a half 548 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 2: plus one fifty. Villa kind of needs to go for it. 549 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,239 Speaker 2: I mean, there's not really any reason to not. And 550 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 2: so I think as they try to continue to play 551 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 2: off in the back and get themselves back into this game, 552 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 2: it will only open up opportunities for Liverpool to get 553 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 2: out and transition, to run and to dice this team. 554 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,440 Speaker 2: And it's one of the worst I think stylistic matchups 555 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 2: for Liverpool or for Villa on the road here. So 556 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Reds. It'll be a one 557 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 2: nil game on a late winner now, But I think 558 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 2: Liverpool scores early. You know, Villa, I think we'll get 559 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 2: on the board here, but I think it's like a 560 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 2: three to one Liverpool home win and they move closer 561 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 2: to seventy one, which is the magic number that I 562 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: think might be enough to get Champions League in next season. 563 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 2: It's gonna be really tight. Liverpool's like plus one twenty 564 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 2: at most shops at top four, which is a little 565 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 2: low like it should be. It should be like one 566 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 2: sixty one seventy. But yeah, they're sitting at like thirty 567 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 2: thirty five percent right now, maybe closer forty, with a 568 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 2: chance to get into that top four. I think they're 569 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 2: gonna win their last two games and then will United. 570 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: It and they're gonna be Southampton. I like their. 571 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 2: Chances against Southampton. Yeah, okay, although I probably bet, probably 572 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 2: bet Southampton in that kid. 573 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 3: Hey, this is Action Network audio director Matt Mitchell inviting 574 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 3: you to head into the sports betting summer with new 575 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 3: gear that's built to last, and our folks at Shady Rays, 576 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 3: friends of the podcast, they have you covered from the 577 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 3: sun to the slopes to out at sea with their 578 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 3: premium polarized shades. 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I just feel like they've just never 604 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: beat them. And boy is this one horrifying because of 605 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: the number, Like this is a type of game where 606 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: as an Everden fan, you'd think, oh, wow, like we're 607 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: favorites on the road. We should I should feel pretty 608 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: good about this. But as somebody who has been doing this, 609 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 1: which is you know, covering soccer betting markets for way 610 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: too long, now, I know why the number looks like 611 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: it does, and I know that it is a you 612 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 1: know you're paying at tax, But Anthony, you're not afraid 613 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: of it. You're not afraid to get there. 614 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 2: And Everdon Yeah, I really can't play everything I want to. 615 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 2: I like the spot, I like the matchup, but the 616 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 2: number sucks. I mean, pick them on the road at Wolves, 617 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: you're paying a huge tax here. 618 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: I think they are real Madrid, like exactly Madrid, Real 619 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 1: Madrid plus one seventy in the spot. 620 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, well they're they're on the beach now. But I 621 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 2: think this is just the classic example of like, if 622 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 2: Wolves go up early, could be a good opportunity to 623 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 2: hop in live on Everton on like a live money 624 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 2: line type situation, because you do see that as games 625 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 2: go on, you know, variants will get even bigger because 626 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 2: teams will will have to go for it. But this 627 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 2: is the god's example of like, oh, we want to 628 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 2: all bet Everton, but like so does the whole world 629 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 2: market knows it, So there's no real edge. 630 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,719 Speaker 4: By the way, Real Madrid technically on the beach, but 631 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 4: not really because Athletico is two points behind them and 632 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 4: they would not. 633 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 5: Want them to finish ahead of them. Anthony spikee Beach, 634 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 5: I think. 635 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 2: You know, Wolves do a lot of defensive possession. Everton's 636 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: done a good job of breaking that up and so 637 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 2: that would be an interesting kind of contrast for styles. 638 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 4: But wait from yeah, well that's what Wolves wants you 639 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 4: to do, Like they want you to press and get 640 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 4: forward so they can play in behind and they can 641 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 4: do their combination passing and. 642 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 5: Get it out wide. 643 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 4: So like stylistically, it's actually for a team like Everton 644 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 4: who is not that great at counter pressing or pressing 645 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 4: high like a team in the top six would be. 646 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 4: It's actually kind of a terrible matchup. So I mean, 647 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 4: if this thing gets steamed where I'm getting Wolves like 648 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 4: pick them at like plus one twenty, I may have 649 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,560 Speaker 4: to stare at that for a little bit. But I 650 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 4: mean they look like they did not care against United, 651 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:30,479 Speaker 4: so we'll see. 652 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 1: And the other thing to keep in mind to here 653 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: is wh didn't you know Dominic Calvert Lewin picked up 654 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: a little bit of a knock against Man City, so 655 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: we'll see. Yeah, his iron Man streak is coming to 656 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: an end. 657 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 4: It looks like he'll bet him for gold We'll bet 658 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 4: him for Golden Boot next year. 659 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 5: Maybe he'll play for more than ten matches. 660 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, and the championship he's going to be eyes 661 00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 1: on to win it. Uh And Vitally Mikhlenko he's a doubt, 662 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 1: which means that we could see another center back play 663 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,759 Speaker 1: left back. But at least here, I mean it's up 664 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: and at it. Anyways, Yeah, I think that the number 665 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,359 Speaker 1: is just wait crazy, But I'm not betting Wolves here either. 666 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 1: Another relegation threatned team leads they're traveling to west Ham 667 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: to take on the Hammers, who are plus one thirty 668 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: seven and on the beach leads plus one ninety. The 669 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 1: draw is plus two fifty. I think the number on 670 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,959 Speaker 1: leads is a little short too. Like I, this west 671 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: Ham team is they're good, like they're just good. We 672 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 1: say it every week they've won, they've lost four or five, 673 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: but they are good like I It's it just is 674 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,000 Speaker 1: what it is with them. They and I don't trust 675 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: Sam Allerdyce to be able to break this team down. 676 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: So pretty easy pass like between Fulham and Crystal Palace 677 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,719 Speaker 1: and this one I felt like the easiest ones on 678 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,840 Speaker 1: the board, So I'll be out of here. But becha, 679 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 1: you're actually willing. 680 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 4: To light Yeah, I mean technically obviously, goal differential is 681 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 4: like substantial, so it's not gonna happen like west Ham 682 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,239 Speaker 4: six points from the drop zone with two to play, 683 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,320 Speaker 4: so yeah, they are safe. 684 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 5: But I mean this is just must win tax. 685 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,880 Speaker 4: With a very very short number on a good west 686 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 4: Ham team against the Leeds. I mean, let's give you know, 687 00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 4: let's give our guy Jesse Marsh some credit. You know, 688 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,400 Speaker 4: I've been the leader in the charge to say that 689 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 4: he was unfairly fired and that he should never have 690 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 4: deserved to lose his job. Since they fired him, Leeds 691 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,240 Speaker 4: has allowed two point zero one x G per match. 692 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 4: Under March they only allowed one point six y three. 693 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 4: So credit to Jesse Marsh and his great defensive tactics 694 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 4: at Leeds at being better than the combination of caretaker 695 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:56,880 Speaker 4: managers having Grassia and Sam Allardice and listen, the spot 696 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 4: here is terrible for west Ham, but the matchup is 697 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,840 Speaker 4: perfect for them because cause the pressure is gonna be 698 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 4: on leads. 699 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 5: They're gonna have to be aggressive. They're gonna have to 700 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 5: try to push forward an attack. 701 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 4: Because they have two matches left in the season and 702 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 4: then one point, honestly at this point is not good enough. 703 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 4: They need all three points so west Ham can sit 704 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:13,600 Speaker 4: back in their low block and they can just play 705 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 4: in transition where they've been most effective. So and west 706 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,000 Speaker 4: Ham this season, we know they've under achieved, but against 707 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 4: the bottom half of the table they have a plus 708 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 4: nine point five expectable differend They've been very good against 709 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 4: bad competitions. So Hammer's pick minus one forty. 710 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 5: I'll probably wait till match time. 711 00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,399 Speaker 4: If you follow me in the action work cap, it'll 712 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,560 Speaker 4: probably sometime on Sunday. I want to make sure that 713 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 4: you know soycheck rise Poketa. All of the really good 714 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 4: west Ham players are actually playing in this match. It's 715 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 4: obviously depending on what happens with their Europea Conference League 716 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 4: tie with Al Kamar on Thursday, if they get through 717 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 4: that or not. So it's kind of wait and see 718 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 4: if we get a good Hammer's line up. If we don't, 719 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 4: I'll just pass and move on. But yeah, the numbers 720 00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 4: way too much must win tax for leads making a 721 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,120 Speaker 4: good number here on west Ham. 722 00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the thing for me. It's the matchup potential 723 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,839 Speaker 2: because they play Alkmar Thursday win especially. I think they 724 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,960 Speaker 2: rest everybody like there's no reason to go for it. 725 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 2: And we saw them put out a very bad, very 726 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 2: very bad team on Sunday against Brentford and look awful, 727 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 2: got played off the park and so that potential just 728 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,799 Speaker 2: makes it very hard to price west Ham. I just 729 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:22,919 Speaker 2: can't do it, So I'll pass. 730 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 1: Southampton officially been relegated. They now travel see you. 731 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 2: Twenty goals they lost to goalkeeping this year. Twenty goals. 732 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:32,360 Speaker 2: I've never seen that. 733 00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,480 Speaker 1: And then yeah, you know what's crazy is we were 734 00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,319 Speaker 1: talking so much about Danny Ward at the beginning of 735 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: the season. Yeah, the Bazooon was. 736 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 4: Just they just never benched him. And that's the thing 737 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,720 Speaker 4: is like Leicester benched Danny Ward. They went for Iverson 738 00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,480 Speaker 4: and they just said enough is enough. But apparently Southampton 739 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 4: just you know, still believe in the young talent they 740 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,759 Speaker 4: spent fifteen million dollars on. So we'll see what he 741 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 4: does in the Championship. But yeah, I mean, what was 742 00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,320 Speaker 4: the last time Southampton's been the Premier League for ten years? 743 00:37:59,320 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 1: Now? 744 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:00,480 Speaker 5: Close to that. 745 00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 4: So we'll be seeing some new blood here coming up 746 00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 4: because there's the potential that or I guess there's potential 747 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 4: at all three of the promoted teams last year we'll survive. 748 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:13,359 Speaker 5: So we'll see. 749 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,360 Speaker 2: Probably will yeah, probably will Coventry and Luton in the 750 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 2: Oh my gosh. 751 00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 4: Gluten is in dirty old Luton's in that match. 752 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 1: A friend of mine was at the riverside for Comentries 753 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:28,760 Speaker 1: when he's a Comentry supporter. 754 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 4: So that's mid brow, honestly, very sad, like they were 755 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:33,520 Speaker 4: going to be a really fun front. 756 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,839 Speaker 2: Sixteen point six goals is the number of goals that 757 00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,799 Speaker 2: Gavin Bazooknu cost Southampton in that that. 758 00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,880 Speaker 4: Is so we kept saying this and this is funny 759 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,200 Speaker 4: because if you go back to later podcasts, I think 760 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 4: I said maybe like seven times that if he does this, 761 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,560 Speaker 4: he will be historically the worst goalkeeper in Premier League history, 762 00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,240 Speaker 4: and you'd think he'd regress towards me. No, he actually 763 00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 4: was the worst goalkeeper in history. 764 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,160 Speaker 5: So it happened. So what are you gonna do? 765 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,480 Speaker 1: They tell you what you can they're gonna do. They're 766 00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,440 Speaker 1: gonna play Brighton. They're gonna be twelve to one underdog. 767 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,040 Speaker 1: Brighton's minus five hundred and the draw is six to one. 768 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 1: Did you ever think we'd see the day Brighton minus 769 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 1: five hundred with a non with not Grand Potter in charge, 770 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 1: and you presume a playing for Tottenham like Troussard is gone, 771 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,320 Speaker 1: Mopie is gone, Oh pie is you know they're building 772 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:26,080 Speaker 1: him a statue. 773 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:31,120 Speaker 4: Ben White is gone like gosh and Waypoo's gone? 774 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 2: Like how can you not? 775 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,799 Speaker 1: How can you not? I know, how can you not 776 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 1: bet Southampton at this number? No? 777 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:39,320 Speaker 2: Thanks pass? 778 00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:41,920 Speaker 5: This is why? Yeah, I mean this is an easy. 779 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:42,640 Speaker 1: Past twelve to one. 780 00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,640 Speaker 2: I mean, what is south not even like the last 781 00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:46,440 Speaker 2: home match where you can be like, oh, I mean. 782 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 5: Here's here's what here's the case. 783 00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:57,160 Speaker 4: Is what happened to Brighton against Nottingham Forrest and against 784 00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,120 Speaker 4: what was the other team today, Everton never too and 785 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:04,759 Speaker 4: was a team of this style like Southampton that you 786 00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 4: know will play deeper and then just try to, you know, 787 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,640 Speaker 4: win a couple high turnovers and get going in transition. 788 00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 4: Like that's the recipe to beat Brighton and Everton and 789 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,680 Speaker 4: Nottingham Forest have shown that. But you actually have to 790 00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,239 Speaker 4: be good defensively in your low block to actually keep 791 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 4: writing out. So yeah, I mean, if you're gonna do 792 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 4: anything like maybe a Southampton reverse run line, it would 793 00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,160 Speaker 4: be nice if you can find that. I don't know 794 00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,520 Speaker 4: if the book's even going to offer that, but yeah, 795 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,960 Speaker 4: just chase something big on Southampton would be my recommendation. 796 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,160 Speaker 2: I mean, McCarthy's a goal now, I think, but yeah, awful, 797 00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,839 Speaker 2: he's been off just in time. He's been awful as well, so. 798 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,240 Speaker 1: They could use your man, Fraser Foster. 799 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,439 Speaker 2: I mean, he would be in goal for anybody either. 800 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,080 Speaker 2: He was so I mean he cost me the under 801 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,960 Speaker 2: in the Spurs match. He took him like eight minutes 802 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 2: to realize that the free kick was going to his 803 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,960 Speaker 2: left and then he couldn't get there right. 804 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,279 Speaker 1: Uh, let's just move on Monday night football. It'll be 805 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 1: interesting spot here for Leicester because if there's ever a 806 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,280 Speaker 1: time to not want to be playing Monday night football, 807 00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,919 Speaker 1: it'd probably be this one. When you're in the thick 808 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 1: of the relegations. Bite. Obviously, they're nineteenth. They are on 809 00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,000 Speaker 1: thirty points, one point behind Leads who are in eighteenth, 810 00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:21,480 Speaker 1: two points behind Everton and four points adrift of Nottingham Forced. 811 00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,040 Speaker 1: All these teams have two matches to go, So Leicester's 812 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:30,759 Speaker 1: gonna watch Forced play Arsenal. They'll watch Everton and Wolves, 813 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 1: they'll see Leeds and west Ham. They'll they could be 814 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 1: they could be toast if they lose this match to Newcastle. 815 00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:44,319 Speaker 1: But I guess you can flip in and say, oh, well, 816 00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,160 Speaker 1: that's good because at least they'll know if they, you know, 817 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,960 Speaker 1: need a win or whatever, or if other teams have 818 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,440 Speaker 1: lost and they have got a chance. But all that 819 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 1: aside Newcastle's battling for top four. They might as two 820 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 1: seventy five Leicester plus six fifty the draws plus four 821 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,480 Speaker 1: to fifty. And I don't unders I can't see a 822 00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:08,319 Speaker 1: way that Lester doesn't give up a ton here. The 823 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,960 Speaker 1: only thing that I they have going for them is 824 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:16,479 Speaker 1: that Newcastle is playing a midweek game and it gets 825 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:20,640 Speaker 1: Brighton so and I mean that's at home, so it's 826 00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:25,040 Speaker 1: not like they're traveling from the South Coast up to Newcastle. 827 00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 1: This is back to back home game. So you'd like 828 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,440 Speaker 1: to make a case for a team battling for relegation 829 00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,600 Speaker 1: at this kind of number, or battling off relegation this 830 00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,440 Speaker 1: kind of but I just can't do it, Bej, what 831 00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:40,880 Speaker 1: about you? 832 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:43,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is an easy pass for me. 833 00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,600 Speaker 4: You know, I was looking at the total, but it's inflated, 834 00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,359 Speaker 4: so there's nothing I can really do here. It's I mean, 835 00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,880 Speaker 4: it's a terrible matchup for Lester, you know, trying a 836 00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:52,320 Speaker 4: team that wants to play out of the back, a 837 00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,839 Speaker 4: team that needs to build up, that really isn't a 838 00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,520 Speaker 4: transitional type team going against the Newcastle press that can 839 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 4: just bully you and set those dusting traps and really 840 00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:04,440 Speaker 4: cause a lot of havocs. So you know, I project 841 00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,680 Speaker 4: Newcastle right around where they are for this match. 842 00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's I think this is just a very very 843 00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,319 Speaker 5: easy pass. 844 00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,600 Speaker 4: For not only you know, with an inflated total, and 845 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 4: after Lester's performance against Liverpool on Monday. 846 00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,040 Speaker 5: I just I don't. I mean you can kind of 847 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:22,880 Speaker 5: just see it on their. 848 00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:26,399 Speaker 4: Faces that they kind of know what's coming because their 849 00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:30,120 Speaker 4: scheduled to finish is very very difficult, So easy pass 850 00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:30,400 Speaker 4: for me. 851 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,360 Speaker 1: You know what's funny here is that if let's just 852 00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,520 Speaker 1: say the results go against Leicester over the. 853 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,960 Speaker 4: If ever Everton wins, they're done. 854 00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,160 Speaker 1: Will need a win, right like they need to win. 855 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:47,120 Speaker 1: And this team already plays suicide ball and they they 856 00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:55,680 Speaker 1: even do more more chaotic. So it's yeah, it's sad 857 00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,600 Speaker 1: like seeing the one of the you know, the the 858 00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,680 Speaker 1: last team not in the Big Sex to win the 859 00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,919 Speaker 1: Premier League title finally leaving them promarily giving. 860 00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:04,319 Speaker 5: It's sad. 861 00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,200 Speaker 4: They're gonna gonna be a huge I mean, the amount 862 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,560 Speaker 4: of offloads from Leicester this this summer are gonna be crazy. 863 00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:13,839 Speaker 5: Let them go down the championship. 864 00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:16,319 Speaker 4: Be interesting to see where Tilamn's and Madison end up. 865 00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it is said, you're. 866 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:26,160 Speaker 2: You're right, losing losing Ianacho is important. I think they 867 00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,000 Speaker 2: lost him. He didn't play against Liverpool. 868 00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,439 Speaker 1: I think losing losing might end up being what cost 869 00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,000 Speaker 1: him it. If you think you know what I. 870 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,640 Speaker 2: Know, Yeah, they be not firing Rogers early enough. 871 00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I. 872 00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,319 Speaker 2: Mean they're they're certainly more talented than eighteenth. I mean 873 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,280 Speaker 2: we all had them bottom half. But like we were 874 00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:46,439 Speaker 2: we were saying, I don't think any of us thought 875 00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,440 Speaker 2: like relegation. Maybe they'd start in that way, but then 876 00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,120 Speaker 2: they would fire Rogers sooner. 877 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:51,879 Speaker 1: Uh. 878 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,040 Speaker 2: They have improved their attacking output, but I don't really 879 00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:54,360 Speaker 2: buy it. 880 00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:55,160 Speaker 1: Uh. 881 00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,040 Speaker 2: I'm kind of skeptical of it because now you know, 882 00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:01,400 Speaker 2: they had those matches against Wolves and and uh and Everton, 883 00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,120 Speaker 2: where like they had all of the good attackers on 884 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:05,880 Speaker 2: the pitch at the same time, and like Jimmy Vardi 885 00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,440 Speaker 2: had like his Swan song. But and then they went 886 00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,200 Speaker 2: down three nail in the first half of Fulham and 887 00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,120 Speaker 2: it's like, okay, we kind of just through shit at 888 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,000 Speaker 2: the wall. But I'm not really buying this attack being 889 00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:21,160 Speaker 2: any good. So, and that's against the Newcastle defense that's 890 00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,640 Speaker 2: still very good in themselves. At Newcastle, I'd be tempted 891 00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:26,759 Speaker 2: to look at up both teams to score. 892 00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,440 Speaker 4: No, here, I'd be tempted to look at a Jamis 893 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:32,960 Speaker 4: golden boot and the champion. 894 00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's done. 895 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,160 Speaker 1: Speaking of the championship before we move on to Bundesliga's 896 00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 1: Ashley Barnes has left Burnley for North City. So thank 897 00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,520 Speaker 1: you for everything, Ashley. It's gonna be weird to not 898 00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:53,000 Speaker 1: see you play for Burnley. Okay, Bunliga, Anthony, great call 899 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,960 Speaker 1: in my uh blod black last week almost got that one. 900 00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:57,319 Speaker 1: What do you have for us here? 901 00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,279 Speaker 2: We were down four nil. It was actually quite a 902 00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,680 Speaker 2: dramatic finish. I don't know if any of my they 903 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,560 Speaker 2: went down four to nil inside a half hour thirty 904 00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,879 Speaker 2: five minutes. So I turned it off and I got 905 00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:09,359 Speaker 2: the goal alert. It was four to one. I said, 906 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,240 Speaker 2: you know what, let me put this on. We score 907 00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,600 Speaker 2: again to make it four two. We hit the post 908 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,600 Speaker 2: to make it four to three. I'm like, all right, 909 00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,719 Speaker 2: push whatever. Don't really deserve to win nine to one. 910 00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:23,080 Speaker 2: Never had a chance in hell. Four to two, they 911 00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,200 Speaker 2: commit a foul as time expires, like ninety fourth minute. 912 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:27,680 Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, they're gonna to take the free kick. 913 00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,320 Speaker 2: Royce hits the free kick right at the goalie Olschevsky 914 00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,040 Speaker 2: drops it raina tap in five to two plus two 915 00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:36,120 Speaker 2: loses one of my bigger bets of the month. So 916 00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,440 Speaker 2: that was not fun. The Foals are still dead to 917 00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 2: me and I may they may get relegated next year 918 00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:46,880 Speaker 2: and I wouldn't even care. What. Yeah, there's gonna be 919 00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,400 Speaker 2: a big problem with this team, I think come next season. 920 00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:53,960 Speaker 2: We'll discuss that in August. But they're losing a lot 921 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:58,960 Speaker 2: of talent this summer. But I am excited for this weekend. 922 00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,920 Speaker 2: I mean, we're essentially just the title. Byron could slip 923 00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 2: up against Colon in the last weekend. I'm skeptical of 924 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,680 Speaker 2: that mattering. Long's kind of beached at this point. But 925 00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:15,400 Speaker 2: Byron against RBI Leipzig, Dortmann goes to Osburg. The Byron 926 00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,960 Speaker 2: wins this, I think it's it. If they drop points, 927 00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,080 Speaker 2: then Dortmann needs two wins in the final two weeks 928 00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,560 Speaker 2: to do it and pull it off the seemingly impossible. 929 00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:29,759 Speaker 2: Now Leipzig is not going to just roll over and 930 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:35,400 Speaker 2: hand them the title. I was not impressed by Leipzig's 931 00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,920 Speaker 2: performance against Verte Bremen last weekend. They are definitely feeling 932 00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,080 Speaker 2: the pressure themselves and trying to compete for this top 933 00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,200 Speaker 2: four spot, but they need the points. They can clinch 934 00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:49,880 Speaker 2: top four with a victory, or really with one victory 935 00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,759 Speaker 2: in their last two matches. They would clinch top four, 936 00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,600 Speaker 2: so they play Shock at home the last week. They 937 00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,400 Speaker 2: also have the Cup final coming ups. But this is 938 00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,759 Speaker 2: a big match for Leipzig. I think they're a little 939 00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,759 Speaker 2: bit undervalued by I like the under more. Leipzig did 940 00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,839 Speaker 2: a really, really good, impressive job in the last meeting 941 00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:10,080 Speaker 2: between these two teams of keeping Byron out of transition. 942 00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,000 Speaker 2: If you remember, you go back to the first match 943 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,800 Speaker 2: they played earlier in the season, different manager, different approach. 944 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,640 Speaker 2: They were much more chaotic and it played right into 945 00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:24,439 Speaker 2: Byron's hands and they got pantsed in those moments and 946 00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,200 Speaker 2: it was not competitive whatsoever. They lost five to three. 947 00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:31,759 Speaker 2: Score kind of flattered them in a way. Now, the 948 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:35,480 Speaker 2: second meeting, once Rosa came in and Roses had a 949 00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:38,640 Speaker 2: lot of success against Byron in the past. He held 950 00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,600 Speaker 2: them to about one expected goal in a one to 951 00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,200 Speaker 2: one draw. It was one of the better performances coming 952 00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,480 Speaker 2: off the World Cup. Yes, but I think you have 953 00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,480 Speaker 2: to look at Leipsig plus one and the under here 954 00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,120 Speaker 2: in that one. I think you're paying the tax on 955 00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:52,839 Speaker 2: Byron for sure. 956 00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:53,520 Speaker 1: B J. 957 00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Liipsig plus one in this matchup. I 958 00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,640 Speaker 4: think it's actually a good one for the you know, 959 00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,320 Speaker 4: what Anthony outlined is that you know, in the meeting 960 00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,839 Speaker 4: right after we came out of the World Cup, they 961 00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,920 Speaker 4: kept Byron out of transition. They let them have the 962 00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,040 Speaker 4: ball over sixty percent of the time, and Byron didn't 963 00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,000 Speaker 4: really create much against them, Like it was a very 964 00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:18,239 Speaker 4: very good performance. They Byron only had one shot with 965 00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,239 Speaker 4: the next year rating over point one. And listen, I mean, 966 00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,000 Speaker 4: Marco Rosa has done an incredible job at arby liipstick 967 00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:24,440 Speaker 4: this season. 968 00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:25,680 Speaker 5: Since he took over. They have a. 969 00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,080 Speaker 4: Plus one point one point one non penalty expected gold 970 00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 4: deferential per ninety minutes. They're allowing point eight one non 971 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,320 Speaker 4: penalty expectables for ninety under him. So this is a 972 00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,280 Speaker 4: very very good defense that we've seen many times, especially 973 00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,799 Speaker 4: you know, I know they conceded seven to Manchester City 974 00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:40,920 Speaker 4: or whatever it was, but like they've been good when 975 00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:45,080 Speaker 4: they've had to face better attacks. And for Byron, I 976 00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:47,839 Speaker 4: mean it's a different approach from Tucchell, Like it's much 977 00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,400 Speaker 4: more possession oriented, a lot more build up play, not 978 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:54,520 Speaker 4: so much in transition. And what Tucchell is having problems 979 00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,759 Speaker 4: with is he doesn't really he doesn't have a true 980 00:49:57,840 --> 00:49:59,719 Speaker 4: number nine that he can play up top and something 981 00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,040 Speaker 4: at the obviously mentioned many times in this podcast, but 982 00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,759 Speaker 4: Chipo Motang's hurt. So you know, in the in the 983 00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:10,040 Speaker 4: loss to Minds, he tried to play Mueller and Mane 984 00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:12,840 Speaker 4: up to as a front two. I mean they created 985 00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:14,880 Speaker 4: decent number of chances, but you know, it's something that 986 00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:17,839 Speaker 4: then the next match he plays Mane up top. Then 987 00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,120 Speaker 4: after that, last two matches he's played Gnarbi up top. 988 00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:24,320 Speaker 4: Like It's just there's so much tactically going differently for 989 00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,799 Speaker 4: for Byron here and Tuccil also is trying to find 990 00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,640 Speaker 4: the right build up structure for for Byron to you know. 991 00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:31,960 Speaker 5: Get back to what Byron was. 992 00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:35,720 Speaker 4: And the expected goals numbers are still fine, but facing 993 00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:37,600 Speaker 4: a team like Leipzig that can defend the way that 994 00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,200 Speaker 4: they do and how good they are in transition, it's 995 00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:43,080 Speaker 4: a great matchup here for Leipzig. So, I mean, I 996 00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,200 Speaker 4: only have Byron projected at minus one thirty one, so 997 00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,000 Speaker 4: Leipzig plus one at even money for a team that 998 00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:54,719 Speaker 4: really has only been you know, point three or excuse me, 999 00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:59,880 Speaker 4: point five expected goals worse than Byron this season, it's 1000 00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:02,360 Speaker 4: it's a pretty decent number here on Leipzig. 1001 00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:08,600 Speaker 1: Okay, La Liga not as exciting as Bundesliga, but that's 1002 00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,439 Speaker 1: where we're going next. Anthony, what do you got Yeah? 1003 00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:16,560 Speaker 2: I like Gerona pick him at home against Viial. Viril 1004 00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:20,279 Speaker 2: had a rousing home win against bill Bao last week 1005 00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,800 Speaker 2: in a very even back and forth contest that was 1006 00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,880 Speaker 2: wide open. Since Setiena has come in, they have not 1007 00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,040 Speaker 2: been a very good defensive team, and I think Unai 1008 00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:32,239 Speaker 2: has done it again because really since he's come in, 1009 00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:37,640 Speaker 2: they are an average team in Spain defensively and look 1010 00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:42,640 Speaker 2: actually below average twelfth now in La Liga since setien 1011 00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:46,400 Speaker 2: came in for Emery, and I really don't like the 1012 00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:50,040 Speaker 2: matchup against a Gerona attack led by Tati Castianos that 1013 00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,560 Speaker 2: has in the upper half, and you know, both teams 1014 00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,840 Speaker 2: here are still going for a chance at Europe. Viial 1015 00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,640 Speaker 2: has an outside shot at catching Sosiadad. They're likely headed 1016 00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:03,759 Speaker 2: to their own league, and then Girona is looking like 1017 00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,880 Speaker 2: a conference league birth if they can hold off build 1018 00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,560 Speaker 2: out as soon as Sevilla. There's a chasing pack behind them, 1019 00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,799 Speaker 2: so this is a desperation home spot for them, and 1020 00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:13,759 Speaker 2: at home as a dog, I don't really see that 1021 00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,319 Speaker 2: much of a difference between these two teams in the 1022 00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,959 Speaker 2: last in the set ten minutes only. These two teams 1023 00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:21,920 Speaker 2: are like four goals apart over the course of about 1024 00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,840 Speaker 2: fifteen matches, so there's not a huge gap here. I 1025 00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:30,520 Speaker 2: will take the dog at home Dno Bett, What. 1026 00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:31,720 Speaker 1: About you, Bjay Yeah. 1027 00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,680 Speaker 4: I like a little relegation six pointer on Friday afternoon. 1028 00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:39,080 Speaker 4: Cadiz and Real Valid Lead. If it weren't for LJA 1029 00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,240 Speaker 4: and Almeria, these would be the two worst defenses in Spain. 1030 00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:44,080 Speaker 4: Both of them are allowing over one point six expected 1031 00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,840 Speaker 4: goals per ninety minutes and neither is showing many signs 1032 00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,520 Speaker 4: of getting better. I mean Valid A Lead has been 1033 00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:53,360 Speaker 4: especially bad. They've conceded twenty point seven expected goals in 1034 00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,200 Speaker 4: their last nine matches, and these two teams set up 1035 00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:00,000 Speaker 4: very very similarly in how they actually have success offense. 1036 00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,840 Speaker 4: Like Valid, the Lead has played five different formations in 1037 00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,040 Speaker 4: the last six matches and all of them are basically 1038 00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,160 Speaker 4: designed to just attack in wide areas. They for the season, 1039 00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,640 Speaker 4: they have the third lowest percentage of their attacks going 1040 00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:15,040 Speaker 4: through the middle of the pitch, so Bad Lead naturally 1041 00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,719 Speaker 4: is ninth and completing crosses in the penalty area, while 1042 00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,719 Speaker 4: Cadiz has allowed the second most into their penalty area. 1043 00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:25,360 Speaker 4: Cadiz is just your typical bottom half of the table 1044 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,600 Speaker 4: La Lega team where it's just four to four to 1045 00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:30,080 Speaker 4: two defensive block look to play in transition, get the 1046 00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:33,480 Speaker 4: ball out wide swinging crosses, which they are top seven 1047 00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,640 Speaker 4: in swinging crosses in the penalty area, while valid the 1048 00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,560 Speaker 4: lead is thirteenth in defending them and Cadiz, I mean 1049 00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,080 Speaker 4: they've been one of They've been one of the worst 1050 00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,319 Speaker 4: offenses in La Leaga all season long, but they've run 1051 00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:44,760 Speaker 4: cold lately, you know, do for a little positive aggression. 1052 00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:46,080 Speaker 5: Three goals in. 1053 00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,680 Speaker 4: Their last six matches off of six expected. So with 1054 00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:52,680 Speaker 4: two teams attacking in wide areas primarily playing in transition, 1055 00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,160 Speaker 4: can't really defend either of those things either. I think 1056 00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:57,440 Speaker 4: it's going to create a very back and forth encounter. 1057 00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,719 Speaker 4: So like over two goals or two and a half 1058 00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:01,680 Speaker 4: goals at plus. 1059 00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:05,799 Speaker 1: One twenty Syria, Ah, BJ, and I mean set it 1060 00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:06,360 Speaker 1: and forget it. 1061 00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:08,040 Speaker 2: Just said BJ, How are you betting this? 1062 00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:09,320 Speaker 5: Wow? 1063 00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:10,160 Speaker 2: Yeah? 1064 00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,600 Speaker 4: You see the two teams that are playing this smash Anthony. 1065 00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:16,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, but you're laying a goal with Roma, who is yeah, against. 1066 00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:17,400 Speaker 5: The worst team in Italy. 1067 00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:17,840 Speaker 2: Yeah. 1068 00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:21,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm laying the goal Roma minus one against Salernitana, 1069 00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:25,200 Speaker 4: so I get the biggest underperformer against the biggest overperformer, Like, 1070 00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,120 Speaker 4: come on, this is perfect and like Roma no, I know, 1071 00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,160 Speaker 4: Joseph says he doesn't care, like that they weren't going 1072 00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,000 Speaker 4: to get top four, but like they're still battling for 1073 00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:33,719 Speaker 4: a Europa League spot, like it is a very. 1074 00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,520 Speaker 2: They're battling for the Europa League. 1075 00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:39,080 Speaker 4: I know, but they need to qualify for the Europa 1076 00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:44,120 Speaker 4: League next season. Anthony okay, gosh against the bottom half 1077 00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:46,439 Speaker 4: of the table this season, Roma plus one point one 1078 00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:49,120 Speaker 4: expected gold differential per ninety minutes, only allowing points seven 1079 00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,319 Speaker 4: to seven expected goals per ninety minutes. And that's because 1080 00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,000 Speaker 4: we've said it so many times. They are the best 1081 00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:59,680 Speaker 4: team in Europe at defending their penalty area and they're 1082 00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:03,160 Speaker 4: also very good at defending and transition, having good defensive structure. 1083 00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,359 Speaker 4: It's a staple under Josie Mourinho and Salernitana. I know 1084 00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:08,839 Speaker 4: they own me. I know Ochoa owns me. But they 1085 00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:12,719 Speaker 4: have the worst expected goldifferential in Syria A and it's 1086 00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:15,239 Speaker 4: a defense that doesn't provide much resistance coming into the 1087 00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,760 Speaker 4: final third, which is good for Roma, who's been bottom 1088 00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,840 Speaker 4: half of Syria A in terms of their build up 1089 00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:22,160 Speaker 4: play and playing through pressure twelfth in offensive pass per 1090 00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:25,000 Speaker 4: defensive action. Salini Town is also one of the worst 1091 00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,320 Speaker 4: set piece defenses in Syria A, which is a big 1092 00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,840 Speaker 4: no no against a team like Roma managed by the 1093 00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:35,760 Speaker 4: great Jose Mourinho. So with Roma still battling for Europa 1094 00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:39,879 Speaker 4: League spot, Anthony, they will care about this match and 1095 00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:43,839 Speaker 4: this line is far too short. So give me Jose 1096 00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,799 Speaker 4: Mourini and Roma minus one at minus. 1097 00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:48,560 Speaker 1: One thirty, Anthony, I don't know how you can follow 1098 00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:49,000 Speaker 1: that one up. 1099 00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:54,920 Speaker 2: I can, honestly, I'm truly stunned. Lazio and Nesse are 1100 00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,239 Speaker 2: within about eight goals of each other this season in 1101 00:55:57,280 --> 00:55:59,720 Speaker 2: terms of XG difference. I know Lazio has done this forever. 1102 00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:02,160 Speaker 2: I need to ask people that are smarter than me 1103 00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,680 Speaker 2: to figure out what the hell Latsia is doing. It's 1104 00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,880 Speaker 2: been able to do this for so long because it 1105 00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:10,800 Speaker 2: truly is incredible. They have a plus five XG difference 1106 00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:15,880 Speaker 2: plus twenty six actual. They've just been remarkable. They go 1107 00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,000 Speaker 2: on the road, though, to d essay pressure spot on 1108 00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:22,840 Speaker 2: the road, Esse has been about as average you're going 1109 00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:26,440 Speaker 2: to get in Syria. But they are good at playing 1110 00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:31,120 Speaker 2: through pressure and I've been impressed by their their their 1111 00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,200 Speaker 2: pace on the outside especially, so I'm gonna go with 1112 00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,279 Speaker 2: them at home. I project this pretty close to a 1113 00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:38,279 Speaker 2: coin flip, and so the fact that I get to 1114 00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:39,400 Speaker 2: plus a half, I'm gonna take it. 1115 00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,280 Speaker 1: Okay, Beja, you're the only one with anything in league. 1116 00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:47,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, real quick here, Claremont Foot plus a half against Breast. 1117 00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:51,959 Speaker 4: Breast needs this win to secure their spot in league 1118 00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:54,120 Speaker 4: on next season while Claremont Foot is on the beach. 1119 00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,560 Speaker 4: But and listen, I crapped on this Claremont Foot team 1120 00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,680 Speaker 4: at the beginning of the season. Credit our credits due 1121 00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:03,200 Speaker 4: since we came out of the World Cup plus zero 1122 00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:07,480 Speaker 4: point six non penalty expected go differential Breast over that 1123 00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,839 Speaker 4: same time frame minus eleven. Clearmont Foot also number one 1124 00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:16,439 Speaker 4: in France in final third to box entry conversion rate allow, 1125 00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:20,000 Speaker 4: which usually signifies a team that is at least decent 1126 00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:23,400 Speaker 4: in defending a transition where that's basically where Breast needs 1127 00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:27,080 Speaker 4: to get all of their attacking outputs. So I have 1128 00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:28,800 Speaker 4: this match projected pretty close to a pick them, So 1129 00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:30,800 Speaker 4: you're just getting a lot of must win tacks on breast, 1130 00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,240 Speaker 4: So I like Clearmont foot plus a half at minus 1131 00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:34,080 Speaker 4: one thirty five. 1132 00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:40,480 Speaker 1: Okay, onto our underdog parlay so close last last week we. 1133 00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:44,919 Speaker 4: Got one of the four Champions League Sandwich spots. 1134 00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:47,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, we were close. 1135 00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:52,760 Speaker 2: Fortunately Glodbach, Everton and Spurs. What they were outscored by 1136 00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:56,280 Speaker 2: a combined seven goals I think seven goals, Yeah, which 1137 00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:57,000 Speaker 2: means we're due. 1138 00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, where we are to go the other way and 1139 00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:01,600 Speaker 1: we'll go with you first BJ. 1140 00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:02,400 Speaker 2: Yeah. 1141 00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:09,200 Speaker 4: How about a nice little hangover championship hangover bet against 1142 00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:14,000 Speaker 4: Barcelona who has one La Liga associate AD plus three 1143 00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:18,800 Speaker 4: thirty really, you know, even if Barcelona cared about this match. 1144 00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:22,080 Speaker 4: Obviously the number is very short because Barcelona has one 1145 00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,480 Speaker 4: La Liga. But I'm expecting them probably to rest a few, 1146 00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,280 Speaker 4: quite a few guys and Associated as a team that 1147 00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:30,960 Speaker 4: is very good at disrupting build up play. They're near 1148 00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:33,000 Speaker 4: the top of La Liga and pass the per defensive 1149 00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:36,360 Speaker 4: action opponent build up completion percentage allowed and high turnovers, 1150 00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,160 Speaker 4: which is something you have to do if you want 1151 00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:41,080 Speaker 4: to beat Barcelona. So we may see a rotated squad 1152 00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:44,680 Speaker 4: from Barcelona. Associated needs this match because they are five 1153 00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:46,880 Speaker 4: points clear of top four with four to play, so 1154 00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:50,560 Speaker 4: a point here, even three points would be absolutely vital 1155 00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,240 Speaker 4: to them to get into the Champions League. So associate 1156 00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:57,040 Speaker 4: ad plus three thirty for a nice championship hangover from Barcelona. 1157 00:58:57,240 --> 00:59:02,440 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Notdingham forced their plus fifty hosting 1158 00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,880 Speaker 1: Bjay's Arsenal. This is a lot to do with the spot. 1159 00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,120 Speaker 1: Arsenal just had their hearts crushed in a three nil 1160 00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:13,720 Speaker 1: loss to Brighton last weekend. Title race basically decided, but 1161 00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:17,120 Speaker 1: it's also about the form of Arsenal. Three draws, two 1162 00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:22,320 Speaker 1: losses and two wins in their last seven matches, and 1163 00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:26,280 Speaker 1: in those seven matches they played Liverpool, west Ham, Southampton City, Chelsea, 1164 00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:31,920 Speaker 1: Newcastle United and Brighton. Not exactly the hardest run of 1165 00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,640 Speaker 1: matches there. Gave up three to Southampton, gave up two 1166 00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:38,320 Speaker 1: to west Ham, two to Liverpool, four to City and 1167 00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:42,560 Speaker 1: three to Brighton's defense has been trending down since the 1168 00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:45,400 Speaker 1: World Cup and it's bottomed out lately, so I think 1169 00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:49,120 Speaker 1: Forrest can give them some trouble here and look it 1170 00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:53,000 Speaker 1: must win spot here for the tricky trees battling relegation. 1171 00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,760 Speaker 1: They'll be up for it. They've pulled some stunning results 1172 00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,760 Speaker 1: already the season, So give me Steve Cooper and Forrest 1173 00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:03,080 Speaker 1: at four fifty. It's my favorite underdog. Anthony. 1174 01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:06,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna take Utonesse three to one at home 1175 01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:11,320 Speaker 2: against Lazziolatzio. Coming off they draw with Letcha and a 1176 01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,280 Speaker 2: two nail defeat at Milan where they were the worst 1177 01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:18,040 Speaker 2: the clearly worst team in both games. You know they've 1178 01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:21,960 Speaker 2: outrun this regression forever seemingly. They have only one one 1179 01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:24,959 Speaker 2: of their last five, though, and I think they're gonna 1180 01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,960 Speaker 2: be the biggest Fadue candidate next season. They're one of 1181 01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:30,360 Speaker 2: the oldest teams in Italy. Could be potentially running out 1182 01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,240 Speaker 2: of gas here as well. I like Udinesse at home 1183 01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:35,640 Speaker 2: in a must win Lozzio spot. You're paying the tax 1184 01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:40,479 Speaker 2: and they lose this, then it gets interesting for top four. 1185 01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:44,439 Speaker 2: If BJ's Roma or Melon could get a win this weekend, 1186 01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:46,120 Speaker 2: they still have three matches to go in Italy. They're 1187 01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,080 Speaker 2: gonna have the extra week as well. 1188 01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,480 Speaker 1: So pretty short part lay for US here. Ninety four 1189 01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:54,560 Speaker 1: to one if those three teams come through feels good. 1190 01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:56,400 Speaker 1: I will say this, I feel like we're gonna hit 1191 01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:00,600 Speaker 1: either this week or in the finale next weekkend. We'll 1192 01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:02,480 Speaker 1: see which one, Michael. 1193 01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:04,520 Speaker 4: Though, even if we do one hundred more episodes, we're 1194 01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:05,800 Speaker 4: still probably in the black. 1195 01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:08,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's the good news. 1196 01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:09,000 Speaker 1: That's the beauty of it. 1197 01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:10,320 Speaker 5: That beauty of this. 1198 01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:11,960 Speaker 4: Is like people are like, man, man, you just can't 1199 01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:13,400 Speaker 4: hit one of these parlays. Well, we hit the two 1200 01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:16,400 Speaker 4: hundred to one. So we talk about. 1201 01:01:17,080 --> 01:01:20,600 Speaker 2: Five dollars every week full disclosure, So you know, I'm 1202 01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:24,040 Speaker 2: not putting you know, coffee money, coffee a week on it, 1203 01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:26,440 Speaker 2: and if you win, you have you know, ninety four coffees. 1204 01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:31,200 Speaker 2: I don't even drink coffee, so really it's just all 1205 01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:31,880 Speaker 2: banks profit. 1206 01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:35,840 Speaker 1: He's an Apple Apple truice guy. All right, onto our 1207 01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,880 Speaker 1: best bets for the Premier League this weekend, Bjay, we 1208 01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:39,480 Speaker 1: can go with you. 1209 01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:43,160 Speaker 4: Arsenal minus one minus one twenty on the road against 1210 01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:47,520 Speaker 4: Nottingham Forrest. Really, you know, Arsenal's title hopes are probably over, 1211 01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:50,600 Speaker 4: but coming into this match they will still at least 1212 01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:52,840 Speaker 4: be alive for the Premier League title and the matchup 1213 01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:54,240 Speaker 4: is really good for them. They've been one of the 1214 01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,600 Speaker 4: best teams in the Premier League get breaking down low 1215 01:01:56,640 --> 01:02:00,200 Speaker 4: blocks this season. Two point zero six expect goals tiny 1216 01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:04,720 Speaker 4: minutes against teams that typically play low blocks, and for 1217 01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:06,800 Speaker 4: a team like Nottingham Forrest that is not going to 1218 01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:09,280 Speaker 4: try to come out and disrupt Arsenal's build up play, 1219 01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:12,200 Speaker 4: it makes it very, very difficult when Arsenal's compressing five 1220 01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:14,240 Speaker 4: guys on Nottingham Forrest's back line and they're gonna have 1221 01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:17,040 Speaker 4: to defend all of Arsenal's attackers in and around the 1222 01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,080 Speaker 4: penalty area. So I think this is a decent spot 1223 01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,240 Speaker 4: here for Arsenal. They have gone through some injuries, but 1224 01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:25,600 Speaker 4: Nottingham Forest has been really bad against some of the 1225 01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:28,200 Speaker 4: better offenses in the Premier League, allowing twenty six expected 1226 01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,400 Speaker 4: goals in eleven matches against the top six offenses. 1227 01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:33,520 Speaker 5: So like Arsenal minus one and minus one. 1228 01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,320 Speaker 1: Twenty, we're gonna go with Brentford. They have three to one. 1229 01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:39,160 Speaker 1: They're taking on Tottenham Hotspur, and if you look at 1230 01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:41,560 Speaker 1: these two teams, I think that one you just have 1231 01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:43,640 Speaker 1: not been able to figure out all season. They haven't 1232 01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:45,880 Speaker 1: been able to figure themselves out all season. That is 1233 01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:49,760 Speaker 1: Tottenham results all over the place. The defense has struggled 1234 01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:54,439 Speaker 1: mightily since the beginning of April, and this Brentford team. 1235 01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:57,160 Speaker 1: They punch up better than anyone. Say it all the 1236 01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,480 Speaker 1: time every week, even without Ivan Tony. I think that 1237 01:02:59,560 --> 01:03:04,040 Speaker 1: this beast team taking out a vulnerable Spurs team on 1238 01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:06,520 Speaker 1: the road is still fine. So I'll take my bees 1239 01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:11,000 Speaker 1: baby plus three hundred, Anthony, you can bring us home please, Yeah. 1240 01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:13,880 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Liverpool first half money line Liverpool team 1241 01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,160 Speaker 2: total over two and a half plus one fifty. We'll 1242 01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:20,560 Speaker 2: make each a half unit for the tracking purposes. I 1243 01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:22,600 Speaker 2: like this matchup for Liverpool. I think they're gonna get 1244 01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:24,960 Speaker 2: a ton of chances in behind Villa's defense. They're going 1245 01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:27,120 Speaker 2: to create a bunch of high turnovers at anfield, They're 1246 01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:29,880 Speaker 2: gonna apply a ton of pressure and I am willing 1247 01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:32,439 Speaker 2: to think that this Villa team and this magical run 1248 01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:34,640 Speaker 2: they've been on, which included a ton of winning, has 1249 01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:37,160 Speaker 2: them playing way over their skis. We're at the all 1250 01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:40,280 Speaker 2: time market high rating on Villa right now, and there's 1251 01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:41,880 Speaker 2: only one place to go from there. 1252 01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:44,560 Speaker 1: There is only one place to go from here, and 1253 01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,560 Speaker 1: that is to our Premier League season finale, which will 1254 01:03:47,560 --> 01:03:50,240 Speaker 1: take place a week from now, and then we'll do 1255 01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:55,640 Speaker 1: a Champions League Final preview. Istanbul, we told you guys city, 1256 01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:57,360 Speaker 1: just lay it, just lay. 1257 01:03:57,160 --> 01:04:02,720 Speaker 2: It, Michael. Finally we finally real Madrid. 1258 01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:05,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, there's a lot of long shots that that 1259 01:04:05,400 --> 01:04:06,240 Speaker 4: died along the way. 1260 01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:09,439 Speaker 5: Yes, it was very unexciting change. 1261 01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:11,240 Speaker 2: You also have well that's not your we have a 1262 01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:14,120 Speaker 2: Champions League preview, but we're also going to do Europa 1263 01:04:14,200 --> 01:04:17,600 Speaker 2: League Final is the Conference League is June seven. If 1264 01:04:17,600 --> 01:04:19,880 Speaker 2: we've got the f A Cup, the DFB Pocal so 1265 01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:22,160 Speaker 2: you know, we've got like three episodes left to go 1266 01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:23,000 Speaker 2: this season. 1267 01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:27,400 Speaker 4: And then stay tuned. Women's World Cup starts July twentieth 1268 01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:28,680 Speaker 4: and we'll be covering that. 1269 01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:32,200 Speaker 1: So and as someone who watches a lot of the 1270 01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:36,200 Speaker 1: Australian Football League, the AFL, been some wild stuff going 1271 01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:39,520 Speaker 1: on down there, with the decision about the Tasmanian Stadium 1272 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,760 Speaker 1: to try to get the expansion team there and the 1273 01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:45,720 Speaker 1: political backlash about building the stadium. I'm I'm kind of 1274 01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:49,560 Speaker 1: used to watching sports at those on Australian times, so 1275 01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:50,520 Speaker 1: I'm good for. 1276 01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:52,160 Speaker 2: Us. 1277 01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:53,680 Speaker 5: The Open is always great every single year. 1278 01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:55,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we'll be we'll be in great for him 1279 01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:59,560 Speaker 1: for the Women's World Cup. But for now we'll just 1280 01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:04,200 Speaker 1: keep chugging along on what has seemedly been an endless 1281 01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,680 Speaker 1: soccer season. I guess that's what happens when you throw 1282 01:05:06,680 --> 01:05:09,200 Speaker 1: a World Cup in the middle of it. For BJ Cunningham, 1283 01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:11,640 Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo, Michael Leibap. Thanks again to our sponsors. Been 1284 01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:13,760 Speaker 1: through six five. This has been wonderful. See you again 1285 01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:18,320 Speaker 1: next week. 1286 01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:24,920 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1287 01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:27,720 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1288 01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:30,880 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler