1
00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,840
Speaker 1: dot Com the radio plus Globile lapp and on your radio.

3
00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,440
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg business flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.

4
00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:16,239
Speaker 1: Charlie held out the down in SMP both lower, NEZ

5
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 1: SNAK is higher up four tens of one percent. We've

6
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,800
Speaker 1: got the tenure down eleven thirty seconds. That yield one

7
00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,360
Speaker 1: point four nine percent gold up to sixty ounce. The

8
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,760
Speaker 1: thirteen fifty five a game there are two tens of

9
00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,640
Speaker 1: one percent. Stocks of being a move to lower via

10
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 1: a route in energy producers. Crude oil plunging through forty

11
00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,640
Speaker 1: of barrel for the first time since April. Crude is

12
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,440
Speaker 1: now down four percent at thirty nine ninety two, a

13
00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,920
Speaker 1: drop right now of a dollar sixty eight a barrel

14
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:48,320
Speaker 1: on West Texas Intermediate SMP down three to one seventy

15
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,519
Speaker 1: had dropped there of two tens of one percent. The

16
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,240
Speaker 1: down down thirty nine points, have got there of two

17
00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,040
Speaker 1: tens of one percent. NAZ stack up nineteen a gain

18
00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,120
Speaker 1: of four tens of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett, and

19
00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 1: that's a bad business flash. This is taking stock with

20
00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. The Institute

21
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,880
Speaker 1: for Supply Management the US factory sector de'ccelerating modestly in

22
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 1: July but posting a fifth consecutive month of growth. What

23
00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,320
Speaker 1: does this all mean? Well, that's why we have Brad Holcombe.

24
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 1: He is the chairman of the Institute for Supply Management

25
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,280
Speaker 1: and he joins us from Tempe, Arizona. Brad, thanks very

26
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,040
Speaker 1: much for being with us. Tell us about new orders

27
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,160
Speaker 1: and production. They're both growing, aren't they? Well, they are,

28
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,839
Speaker 1: and as you mentioned, the p m I is off

29
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,919
Speaker 1: just over a half a point, but still pretty consistent

30
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,199
Speaker 1: with what we've seen for the fast few months. New

31
00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,400
Speaker 1: orders is leading the way at fifty six point nine

32
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 1: is down a tenth of a point, still a very

33
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:57,120
Speaker 1: strong number, supported by a number of our our largest industries.

34
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 1: And production is up seven intensive a point. Uh to

35
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,120
Speaker 1: not only keep up with new orders, but it also

36
00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,360
Speaker 1: had the opportunity to work into the backlog of orders,

37
00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 1: which is down four and a half percentage points to

38
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 1: forty eight this month. Well, Brad, you know, bottom line,

39
00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,600
Speaker 1: as long as the Purchasing Managers Institute that you at

40
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,440
Speaker 1: the Institute for Supply Management produced is above fifty, It

41
00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,400
Speaker 1: signals expansion. And I'm on my Bloomberg now and I'm

42
00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 1: you know, scrolling back and scrolling back. I mean, we

43
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,200
Speaker 1: haven't been below fifty probably since the the final months

44
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,520
Speaker 1: of the Great Recession. And even with the components that,

45
00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 1: you know, it's really hard to nickpicky, get nickpicky, except

46
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,800
Speaker 1: maybe for you know, the employment component felt just below

47
00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,560
Speaker 1: fifty because production stayed strong, new orders eased off a bit,

48
00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,079
Speaker 1: but still well above fifty. Do you see any sign

49
00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,360
Speaker 1: of a real cooling off here? No, I really don't,

50
00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: you know, And I really appreciate your comments, because it's

51
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,520
Speaker 1: hard to take issue with with the number set today.

52
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 1: It looks a lot like last month, quite frankly, and

53
00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 1: as I said, the continuation of the trend for the

54
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,960
Speaker 1: last five to seven months on the employment one, you know,

55
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,840
Speaker 1: we expected to hang around fifty for the rest of

56
00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 1: the year, to end up with zero employment growth between

57
00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,320
Speaker 1: now and the end of the year. It's just the

58
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,920
Speaker 1: way the planning has gone. So there's nothing here that

59
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:31,720
Speaker 1: surprises me this month, and it's it all feels pretty consistent,

60
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 1: as I said, with the trend set up this this

61
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 1: year earlier. Brad does this seem consistent with the most

62
00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 1: recent GDP report of one growth. Actually, we would have

63
00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 1: you know, correlated and predicted higher between two and a

64
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:56,280
Speaker 1: half percent if we average January through July, and even

65
00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:01,040
Speaker 1: three based on the July number. So the rest of

66
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,120
Speaker 1: the economy sort of you know, flanged up with us,

67
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,920
Speaker 1: we'd be at higher numbers. Well, this is a very

68
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,520
Speaker 1: important question Pin puts on the table, because what we've

69
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,000
Speaker 1: gotten that GDP report is that the U S economy,

70
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,760
Speaker 1: especially after all the revisions going back to is now

71
00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 1: growing at a one percent year over year rate. It

72
00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,000
Speaker 1: is steadily decelerated, even as your I S M index

73
00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,839
Speaker 1: has held up. Does that mean I S index is

74
00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 1: no longer a good indicator for the broad economy or

75
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 1: is it simply that it's just a good indicator for

76
00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,159
Speaker 1: the part of the economy it makes up, which is

77
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 1: factories manufacturing. Well, that's particularly a good indicator of the

78
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,640
Speaker 1: manufacturing sector. But also, you know, in a couple of

79
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:45,000
Speaker 1: days we'll all see the non manufacturing report, and then

80
00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 1: together we represent the entire GDP from our perspective, and

81
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:56,160
Speaker 1: that is about seven professionals sitting in plants and and

82
00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:00,599
Speaker 1: service companies across the company telling us actually what it

83
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,560
Speaker 1: looks like from inside the government numbers. You know, I'm

84
00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 1: not familiar with the process the revised from time to time.

85
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,919
Speaker 1: We rarely have ever do that. So this is is,

86
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,559
Speaker 1: you know, his real data race based on a pretty

87
00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,440
Speaker 1: broad survey, Bradam money, If you could tell us what

88
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:23,080
Speaker 1: some of the respondents have said to you, particularly if

89
00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 1: you'd like to begin with the plastics and rubber products,

90
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:31,120
Speaker 1: they seem to be a bit more optimistic. That's a

91
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,320
Speaker 1: plastic guests, plastic and rubber products industry. One of the

92
00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,919
Speaker 1: comments was, seems to be a bit more optimistic in

93
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:44,279
Speaker 1: the markets, but US presidential race might dampen the mood.

94
00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 1: Um personally, I don't necessarily agree with that. I think

95
00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,840
Speaker 1: we've all factored that in. It is what it is.

96
00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 1: It's going to be one or the other, you know,

97
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,640
Speaker 1: and we'll see later on what that means. Brad. Going

98
00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:04,400
Speaker 1: back again to the g P report, almost everything was negative. Um.

99
00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:08,320
Speaker 1: Certainly any kind of construction, any kind of private investment

100
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,880
Speaker 1: was down. Another reason why it's kind of interesting and

101
00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 1: surprising maybe to see factories holding up so well, But

102
00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:19,200
Speaker 1: exports were also a small positive contributor. What which which

103
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:23,600
Speaker 1: companies that you survey who's doing well. On the exports side,

104
00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:30,840
Speaker 1: exports is finished goods, um, so it covers you know,

105
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 1: as pretty broad and let me just turn to that

106
00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:38,520
Speaker 1: particular page. But again, exports is UH is finished goods,

107
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:43,880
Speaker 1: whereas imports as raw materials. And in terms of what's uh,

108
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:49,800
Speaker 1: what's going and growing, paper products, computer and electronic products,

109
00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 1: fabricated metal products, food, beverage and tobacco, and transportation equipment

110
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 1: as well as chemical products are on that list of

111
00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:03,159
Speaker 1: growing in that category, Pratt just quickly. Commodities moving higher

112
00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,599
Speaker 1: in price include copper that should be good for the

113
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 1: industrial sector. Now well, yes, um, you know copper is

114
00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,240
Speaker 1: actually on both lists up in price and down and

115
00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,480
Speaker 1: price as indicated by different respondents. It could be a

116
00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,920
Speaker 1: timing issue, but generally speaking, the medals are going up

117
00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,080
Speaker 1: in this time frame, all right, Brad Hope, and thank

118
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 1: you so very much for joining us. From the Institute

119
00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:34,480
Speaker 1: for Supply Management putting on its Purchasers Purchasing Managers Index.

120
00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,680
Speaker 1: It's basically an index of manufacturing growing for the fifth

121
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:47,080
Speaker 1: straight month but decelerating. This is Bloomberg coming up on

122
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 1: taking stock. A look at Cantel Medical corp On the

123
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 1: future plans for the company as a new CEO takes

124
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:55,240
Speaker 1: over