1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway, Tracy Medals. 4 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 3: That's it. 5 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: That's that's that's it. It's the title. 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 4: No, there's a lot happening in the metals space. So 7 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 4: we have gold above five five hundred announce, which is 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 4: a record. We have silver above one hundred and twenty 9 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 4: dollars announce, also a record, and now we have copper 10 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 4: at over fourteen four hundred dollars a ton. 11 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is something that's super interesting to me, 12 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 2: and I think it is a very important to mention, 13 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: which is that copper is the ultimate industrial metal, right, 14 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 2: and for you know, doctor Copper tells us about the 15 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 2: common probably a little overstated its reputation by just the 16 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 2: ultimate industrial metal. Gold is the ultimate medal with no 17 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 2: industrial uses, right, It's primarily a store of value, a 18 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: sort of a form of money that's existing SAE for 19 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: thousands of years. And then silver is a little bit 20 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: in the middle, more of a safe haven. But we 21 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 2: know it has it's used in solar it's used in photography, 22 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: not that that really exists anymore. But you know what 23 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: I'm saying. So it's like it's interesting to see, like, 24 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: why are they all flying at the exact same time. 25 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was going to say the exact same thing. 26 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:33,919 Speaker 4: So each of these medals historically would tell you something 27 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: very specific about the state of the economy. And copper 28 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: certainly would be screaming people are bullish on economic growth. Silver, 29 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 4: you know, something kind of in the middle. And gold. 30 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 4: Gold soaring is something that you traditionally associate with stress points, 31 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 4: either in the financial system or the broader global economy. 32 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 4: And yet here we are. 33 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all happening in once and like you know, 34 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: you know, you could say, like, oh, dollar debasement, right, 35 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: and we know the dollar has been week against other currencies. 36 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: It's not like inflation is measured, you know, is like 37 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 2: raging hot. So it's not just a simple story of 38 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 2: like the dollar becoming worthless. So the you know, the 39 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: denominator whatever going up or whatever the other way around is, 40 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 2: et cetera. There's something going on with metals. Maybe they're 41 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: just the new memestocks, et cetera. But we have to 42 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 2: dig in. 43 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, let's do it all right, Well, I have. 44 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: To say we really do have the perfect guest on 45 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,919 Speaker 2: the perfect day. Again. We're recording this the morning of 46 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 2: January twenty ninth. We're going to try and get it 47 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: out asap. But there's headline Copper surging ten percent, unbelievable 48 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 2: headlines We've had them on multiple times in the past. 49 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 2: A believer in super cycles, a vindicated man in many 50 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 2: respects with many of his calls, who's like Goldman a 51 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: long time. We're going to be speaking with the one 52 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: and only Jeff Curry, who is now a partner at 53 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 2: Carlisle Nose Commodities, as well as anyone else we talked to. So, Jeff, 54 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 2: thank you so much for coming back on the Oud 55 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 2: Laws podcast. 56 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 3: Great well, thank you having me. Commodities are up and 57 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: back in favor. It was a rough last couple of years, 58 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: to say the least. 59 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 4: What do we should just ask? Is this going to 60 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 4: be the peak? 61 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: Is this the peak? Did we is? 62 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 3: Uh? 63 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the question? Is this the peak? 64 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 4: You're back on? Everyone's going to ask, is this the did. 65 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 2: Odd Laws get the peak? Because they called? They ring 66 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: Jeff Curry? So let's just get this out. 67 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 3: Of the way. By the way, I love that we're 68 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 3: in the foothills of the Himalayas right now. So we're 69 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 3: not even close to the real mountain peaks. 70 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 4: Yeah really yes, Okay, So I'm going to ask the 71 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 4: obvious question, which we alluded to in the intro, but 72 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 4: why are all three of these things moving in the 73 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 4: same direction all at once? 74 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 3: When you look at the commodity complex, you take anything 75 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 3: that has an atomic number to it, that's in the 76 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 3: periodic table, it's going up right now. Even nicol and 77 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 3: zinc have joined the party. If it is a molecule 78 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 3: and it has a carbon in it, a carbon hydrogen, 79 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 3: a CCH in it, it's been struck. So that includes 80 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 3: hydrocarbons as well as carbon hydrates like corn wheat and 81 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 3: so forth. So that space, the molecules have been struggling. 82 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 3: Yet you have the things that are primarily critical minerals, 83 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: things that are in the periodic table. The atomic number 84 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 3: have all done well, and the fundamentals and copper are 85 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 3: not that much tighter than what you have in oil. 86 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,799 Speaker 3: So what's going on in the metal space is hoarding 87 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 3: given the concerns over having availability of these critical minerals, 88 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 3: And you throw out the idea of debasement, and I 89 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 3: want to throw in three other d's d dollarization and 90 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 3: diversity to your debasement. So debasement, de dollarization, and diversity 91 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: is what's driving all of these different metals. And when 92 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 3: we think about the de dollarization, and that goes back 93 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: to twenty twenty two, when the US and Europeans froze 94 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 3: the central bank assets of Russia, every emerging market goes uh, oh, 95 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 3: I don't want to be owning any dollar denominated assets 96 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 3: because look what happens through the Russians. And as a result, 97 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,119 Speaker 3: they're movement as fast as they can out of dollar 98 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: assets into assets that cannot be seized and precious metals 99 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 3: and metals are part of that. And then when you 100 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: have the geopolitical risk as high as they are right 101 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 3: now on a global basis, whether it was US cutting 102 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 3: off Venezuelan oil supply to China, India and Europe, or 103 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: it was the Chinese cutting off critical mineral supply to 104 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 3: the US and its allies, or it's Russia cutting off 105 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 3: supplies and natural gas, it's a dangerous time to be 106 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 3: dependent upon foreign commodity supply and as a result, we 107 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 3: have stockpiling and everybody talks about the squeeze in silver, 108 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 3: running it up to one hundred and twenty dollars an ounce. 109 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 3: The reality is this is a squeeze by the population 110 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 3: of the people in China. You know, they're hoarding the 111 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 3: silver over concerns around export controls and things of that nature. 112 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 4: So you mentioned China just then, and this is exactly 113 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 4: what we wanted to ask you about, which is, if 114 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 4: you've stripped out what's going on in China, how much 115 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 4: of the rally would disappear in something like gold. 116 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 3: I mean, the vast majority of it is not just China, 117 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 3: but emerging market central bank buying basically reduced their holdings 118 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 3: of Western bonds that can be frozen, similar to what 119 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 3: happened with the Russian So you know, do not underestimate 120 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 3: the impact that China's had. In fact, if anything, China 121 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 3: and the other emerging markets have squeezed other participants in 122 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 3: the gold market out. And do you still have a 123 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 3: long ways to go? I like to point out that 124 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 3: in nineteen seventy, when Nixon took the US off the 125 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 3: gold standard, central bank reserves and gold stood at around 126 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: forty percent. Last time I calculated late day in the 127 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 3: last year. Wasn't that twenty seven to twenty eight percent, 128 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 3: but the run up in the last couple of days 129 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 3: could be as high as thirty by now. But I 130 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 3: think the key message is there's still a lot more 131 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 3: buying by essential banks who diversify themselves out of dollars. 132 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 2: I'm still a little bit confused. What is it about 133 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: silver particularly that's so desirable right now from the population 134 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: in China, Because just let's talk about hoarding and some 135 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: of these issues. It's totally understandable why China wants to 136 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 2: hold certain strategic assets, right It wants to accumulate a 137 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 2: lot of oil in part because of defense purposes, because 138 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 2: in the event of a war for whatever reason, they 139 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 2: may get shot out of oil, so they need a lot. 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 2: What is it about silver in the population context that 141 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 2: makes it so desirable? And by the way, I'm looking 142 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: at a chart is from two days ago. But the 143 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: Shanghai silver premium buyers in China panng more than five 144 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 2: dollars an ounce versus everyone else in the rest of 145 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 2: the world. But explain what is it this driving this 146 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 2: purchase from the public in China. 147 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 3: Okay, first, let's talk about its role as a critical manalk. 148 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 3: It goes into the production solar PV and that makes it, 149 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: as you pointed out the beginning, fifty percent an industrial 150 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: metal and then fifty percent of a store value like gold. 151 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 3: So the fact that it has these dual uses, it's 152 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 3: a critical mineral and important to the electrification process on 153 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 3: a global base. Remember, it's a superconductor. Actually, let me 154 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 3: go back to answer your question. Tracy said, what do gold, silver, 155 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 3: and copper all have in common? They're superconductors. I know 156 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 3: people say, well, Jeff, copper isn't exactly a definition of 157 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 3: a superconductor. It's not as strong as silver and gold, 158 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 3: but it sits up there in that electrification process. And 159 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 3: so when we think about silver, it's critical for the 160 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 3: industrial base of China given the importance of solar panels 161 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 3: as a part of the industrial manufacturing process in China. 162 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 3: So you know, when if you're the PBOC or somebody 163 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 3: like that, you're going to be very focused on making 164 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 3: sure there's adequate silver supplies inside of China. So the 165 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 3: fact that it also then has the store of value 166 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 3: like gold and accessible by many parts of the population. 167 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 3: Because even at one hundred one hundred dollars an hour, 168 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty dollars an ounce as wherever this morning, 169 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 3: it still makes it a much more affordable a store 170 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 3: of value. So I think that two key points for 171 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:25,199 Speaker 3: China and why silver is so important is its role 172 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 3: as a critical mineral and as a superconductor. And given 173 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 3: the importance of solar panels and other types of renewable 174 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 3: investments to the Chinese industrial base, having a secure supply 175 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 3: of silver is absolutely critical to the Chinese economy. Second 176 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 3: of all, is when you look at the price of silver, 177 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 3: even at one hundred and twenty dollars an ounce, it 178 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 3: is still very affordable to many of the population as 179 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 3: a store of value similar to gold. And also given 180 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 3: the recent price trends, people feel comfortable in holding it. 181 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 3: So it has those two components that make it critical 182 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 3: to the Chinese economy. 183 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,319 Speaker 4: Some people would say that, like, all right, you can 184 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 4: look at all these things surging and tell a story 185 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 4: about debasement and electrification and what the future world is 186 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 4: going to look like. Some other people would say, well, 187 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 4: you could tell an even simpler story, which is that 188 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 4: one of these markets is wrong. Right, So maybe copper 189 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 4: sees economic growth going to the moon, although it seems 190 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 4: kind of unlikely to me, maybe silver is somewhere in between. 191 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 4: Maybe gold is wrong about the debasement thesis. Whatever, how 192 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 4: do we know that We're just not seeing investors get 193 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 4: this one wrong. People are just going from a mentoreame. 194 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: Clanification of pressures of metal. 195 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 3: Well, I do think when we talk about a commodity 196 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 3: supercycle the s words, which by the way, is nothing 197 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 3: other than a commodity capac cycle or a big global 198 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 3: capac cycle, and we're seeing that, you know, whether it's 199 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 3: an investment in defend, investment into AI data centers. The 200 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 3: list goes on. This is a world scale capex boom 201 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 3: we're now entering. And that typically is when you see 202 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 3: the big commodity supercycles. One in the seventies, one in 203 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 3: the two thousands, and where I mean, just take the 204 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 3: defense spending in Europe alone, it's likely to be nine 205 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 3: trillion euros over the next decade. To put that in perspective, 206 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 3: the Chinese boom in the two thousands was ten trillion 207 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 3: US today it's about fifteen. So even just Europe on 208 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 3: a loan, we haven't even factored in data centers in AI. 209 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 3: So when that occurs, typically what we see is a 210 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: repricing and rerating towards asset heavy industries in commodities, or 211 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 3: another way to think about it as short duration. Strangely 212 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 3: is when interest rates are low, everybody thinks, oh, you 213 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 3: would be doing capex cycles. No, you do them when 214 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 3: their interest rates are high. Because the interest rates are high, 215 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 3: they're telling you you need to put money into the ground. 216 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 3: And so we're moving into to one of these repricing 217 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 3: towards asset heavy industries, which is why it will ultimately 218 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 3: be sustainable across the entire commodity complex. And I just 219 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 3: want to take a step back and talk about these 220 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 3: repricings because in my career, I've lived through two. The 221 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 3: first one was in that call it two through like 222 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 3: four time period, and that's what we coined the term 223 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 3: revenge of the old economy. Old economy is asset heavy, 224 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 3: New economy is asset light. And that asset light in 225 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 3: the late nineties two thousands was really about the scalability 226 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 3: of software. You don't need to have put a lot 227 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 3: of money into the ground to be able to create growth, 228 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,479 Speaker 3: and that was the whole asset light model. But eventually 229 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 3: we ran out of all of these heavy industries that 230 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 3: you need to make the investments in and then China 231 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 3: came on the scene and became clear we need to 232 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 3: make those investments. And that happened over that decade. But 233 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 3: that repricing, rerating was a violent process as you moved 234 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 3: out of new economy or into the old economy. The 235 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 3: next time we saw that was in fourteen fifteen, where 236 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 3: we moved out of the old economy and into the 237 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 3: new economy. Why because it was clear China was at 238 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 3: the end of the track. And if you remember that 239 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 3: time period we go through there, the euro went from 240 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 3: like one point fourd to parody in the course of 241 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 3: like eighteen months. I remember the period oil was coming 242 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: down seven dollars a barrel, like every other day, everybody, 243 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 3: what's going on? What's going on? I want to make 244 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 3: a point here to get to your point about why 245 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 3: is this sustainable across all these commodities. And when we 246 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 3: look at I'm going to take a like a private 247 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 3: equity pitch book in twenty twelve of a Canadian oil asset. 248 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 3: They value the asset at one hundred and ten dollars 249 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 3: of barrel. The IRR of that asset that this oil 250 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 3: field was twenty five percent at one hundred and ten. 251 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 3: Now fast forward to twenty sixteen, after the macro repricing, 252 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 3: oil was sitting around forty dollars a barrel. Now, let's 253 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 3: go reprice the IRR of that asset. What do you 254 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 3: think it is immediate responsibles? He would go, oh, it 255 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 3: was negative. Rr. No, it was around eighteen nineteen percent. 256 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 3: It didn't come down much. Why is because the Canadian 257 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,479 Speaker 3: dollar reprice, so wages went down, you had a repricing 258 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 3: of the cost of capital, you had a repricing of copper, 259 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 3: iron ore. They all came down, and so your cost 260 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 3: bass came down, such as the IRR was far more 261 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: stable over that repricing. And that's ultimately what we're starting 262 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 3: to see happen across this space right now. And I 263 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 3: believe we're in one of these repricings. We're going to 264 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 3: move back into the asset heavy space. I want to 265 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 3: make one last point before moving on this. During this 266 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 3: it's going to make this one really different from ones 267 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 3: in the past. Is I want to go back to 268 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 3: the nineteen sixties because it's similar to today. And that was that, 269 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 3: at least in the modern data the first big commodity supercycle, 270 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 3: the asset light space back in the sixties was companies 271 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 3: like Coca Cola. In fact, all the nifty to fifty 272 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 3: were brands. What do brands have similar to Let's say Microsoft, 273 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 3: infinitely scalable at zero marginal cost. And so Coca Cola 274 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 3: was the world's darling right now, and all of the 275 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 3: big commodity producers, the miners, the oil companies were at 276 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 3: the bottom. And then you had the Arab oil embargo 277 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 3: create that catalyst to reprice. Now what happened here is 278 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 3: that that's different today. So you think about that asset 279 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 3: light space was Coca Cola, and then in two thousand 280 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 3: it was Microsoft, and today it is Google and the hyperscalers. 281 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 3: Now here's where it gets really different in the power 282 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 3: what's going to happen now is the asset light space 283 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 3: is getting into the asset heavy space, i e. These 284 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 3: hyperscalers are putting steel into the ground. And by the way, 285 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 3: you're no longer a asset light infinitely scalable software company, 286 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 3: You're a you're an oil company, you are a commodity producer, 287 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 3: You're multiple is going to get rerated. And so what 288 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 3: we have is the asset light space this time is 289 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 3: moving into the asset heavy space and putting steel in 290 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 3: the ground. So this is going to be a real 291 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 3: violent transitions. To ask about copper and silver and the 292 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 3: rest of these things. What are the restrictions on their 293 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 3: big CAPEX budgets? Is the availability of transformers? What are 294 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 3: transformers big chunks of copper? And so we have a 295 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 3: difference in this cycle than once in the past is 296 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 3: the asset light space is colliding in the physical space 297 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 3: at the exact same time, which is what I thind 298 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 3: to think that this repricing is going to be more violent, 299 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 3: more sustainable, and what you're going to see, and it 300 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 3: goes to a simple point that I observed in the 301 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 3: two thousands was when oil first went out because oh 302 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 3: it's a bunch of investors buying oil, it sits at 303 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 3: sixty dollars a barrel, that supernatural returns. No, you actually 304 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 3: had capital rotate out of the asset light space and 305 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 3: into the oil space during four to five such as 306 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 3: the cost basis actually rose and there was no supernatural return. 307 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 3: So go, Tracy back to your point, how sustainable is this? Well, 308 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 3: what we're seeing is all the capital flowing into this 309 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 3: asset heavy space and it's going to build the ground 310 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 3: underneath these prices and support them from a relative cost basis. 311 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 3: And so when we think about fourteen thousand dollars a 312 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 3: ton comper, doesn't mean these guys are earning supernatural returns 313 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 3: because we see so much capital movements in the space. 314 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 2: I absolutely love that comparison of the software companies to 315 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 2: the Coca Colas and this idea that there are certain 316 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 2: business models that can scale incredibly with very little physical needs. 317 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 2: And the way you framed that I thought was very 318 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 2: helpful to understand. And we've certainly talked a lot on 319 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,400 Speaker 2: the podcast about the hyperscaler is getting into the real 320 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 2: business of things and you know, going up the chain 321 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 2: and in some cases getting getting into the power production, 322 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 2: investing in their own nuclear plants and hiring power traders. 323 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: So all of this feels very real. Let's just like 324 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 2: you say we're in a super cycle, you say we're 325 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 2: at the foothills of the Himalayas. What is history or 326 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 2: your work say about how big and how far this 327 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 2: can go? 328 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, historically these cycles last summer around twelve years. 329 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 3: The one in the seventies did, the one in the 330 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 3: two thousands did one of the seventies from sixty eight 331 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 3: to nineteen eighty, the one in the two thousands, from 332 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 3: essentially two thousand and two to twenty and fourteen. A 333 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 3: lot of people say, oh, the world's different today than 334 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 3: in those other points. Time Putting steel in the ground 335 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 3: still takes about the same amount of time, technology or 336 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,159 Speaker 3: no technology. I like to point out, where do you 337 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 3: get the twelve years you know, were the first three years, 338 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 3: or getting people to believe it before they start to 339 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 3: really invest earnestly. And I would say this one started 340 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty and so the fact that we lost 341 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 3: two years in twenty three and twenty five, whether it 342 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 3: was copper oil and part of the reason for that 343 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 3: was the rally and prices was so steep after that 344 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 3: Russian Ukrainian invasion. The policy response globally was incredibly swift. 345 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 3: I want to point out that policy response in twenty 346 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 3: two and twenty three was not so much the rise 347 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 3: in interest rates but the creation of supply. And I 348 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 3: say that is because you had inflation come down everywhere 349 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 3: in the world in a synchronous manner, and it did 350 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 3: it against record commodity demand and really strong GDP growth 351 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 3: in the United States wasn't I tell you, it simply 352 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 3: could not have been interest rates in the demand side. 353 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 3: It had to come from a supply side. Where did 354 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 3: they get new supply? Russia, Iran, Venezuela, you know, some 355 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 3: of the issues that are faceing to say. They got 356 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 3: it through increased immigration on the labor side. There was 357 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,479 Speaker 3: a lot of ways they created supply all over the 358 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 3: world to be able to deal with that. Now the 359 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 3: point this time around, and everybody's bought into this oil 360 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 3: supply lot, we don't have a problem is that those 361 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 3: easy fixes are not going to be available next time around. 362 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 3: So this one's going to take longer than normal. But 363 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 3: I also want to go why I'm comfortable with this 364 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 3: being a supercycle is all of these things are all 365 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 3: policy driven. The one in the seventies was due to 366 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 3: the lbj's War on poverty, the big defense spending sound familiar, 367 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 3: and then you had the air of oil embargo. If 368 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 3: you look at what happened in the two thousands, it 369 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 3: was the decision to admit China, the wto a policy decision. 370 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 3: Here the policy decisions is the war on free trade, 371 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: and it's not just the US doing everybody's doing it. 372 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 3: You know, curtailing commodity supply around the world. In fact 373 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 3: that the three points we laid out in twenty twenty, 374 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 3: in fact, it was on this show we laid them out. 375 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 3: There's still very much valid today. And they were all 376 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 3: policy decisions. One was deglobalization, the war on free trade. 377 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 3: I mean, if anything, it's been turbo charged now from 378 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 3: five years ago. And when we think about it, it's 379 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 3: all policy decisions. It's not just inside the United States 380 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 3: where we're seeing this. You know, the Chinese cutting critical 381 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 3: mineral supply. You know, Europeans focused on, you know, protecting themselves, 382 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 3: defense spending. The list goes on. Let's go to the 383 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 3: second one at the time, decarbonization or electrification. And I 384 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 3: know a lot of people are going to look at, oh, well, 385 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,959 Speaker 3: didn't the US backtrack on that with it, you know, 386 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 3: the recent political shifts. The answer is absolutely not. The 387 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: rest of the world is doubling down on electrification. For 388 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 3: both when we think about the electrification of the world, 389 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 3: where it wasn't decarbonization was not the motivator today, it 390 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 3: wasn't then. And then going back in time, why do 391 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 3: I say that, why did China build cutting edge technologies 392 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 3: and nuclear power, solar wind batteries and the rest of it. 393 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 3: They did it for energy security. Kind of goes into 394 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 3: the deglobalization point. They want their own secure energy supply. 395 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 3: In fact, Carter coined the term energy transition and want 396 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 3: to transition out of oil into renewables in nineteen seventy seven, 397 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 3: not because they wanted to save the world, but because 398 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 3: of energy security. One last point on this is France 399 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 3: lowest carbon footprint in the world. It didn't get there 400 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 3: because it wanted to save the planet. It got there 401 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 3: because it wanted nuclear power. So it was Charles de 402 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 3: gaull decision to rid itself of the oil trade. So 403 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 3: this story, regardless of what's going on in the political pushback, 404 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 3: and I don't think green was ever probably the right 405 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 3: way to phrase this. It's renewable, it's a secure source, 406 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 3: nuclear powers, a secure source, throw data centers AI all 407 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 3: on top of it. It's turbocharged. From the last time 408 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 3: we talked about and then finally the third point was 409 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: redistribution of the war on income inequality kate with the 410 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 3: k economy. This is alive and kicking. 411 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 4: Wait say more about that last point. 412 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 3: Well, when we think about commodities, and actually, Tracy, i've 413 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 3: seen you even make this point that I made back 414 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 3: five years ago, was that when you see inflation and 415 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,880 Speaker 3: you see commodity demand, it has to be coming from 416 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 3: the low income groups. This is the point that people 417 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 3: get backwards. Inflation is bad for the high income groups. 418 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 3: And the reason why is because the low. 419 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 4: This was a great call that you made, by the way, Yeah. 420 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 3: And the low income groups are the ones that actually 421 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 3: think about this. In corn, a high income person will 422 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 3: consume the same amount of corn at any point in time. 423 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 3: The marginal demand has to come from the low income groups. 424 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 3: And so when you give them money like fiscal transfers 425 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 3: and you know, to keep the masses happy in certain situations, 426 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 3: what are they going to do. They're going to spend it. 427 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 3: They're going to spend it on commodities and physical goods, 428 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 3: and that ends up creating that inflation, and then the 429 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 3: high income people suffer because the the response by policymakers 430 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 3: to the higher rates is wealth comes down. And another 431 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 3: way to think about all inflation is as a wealth 432 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 3: transfer between the high income groups and the low income groups, 433 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 3: and then they go out and spend it. And so 434 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 3: when we think about the demand here is that third one, 435 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 3: which is this war on that income inequality is just 436 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 3: going to demand more and more types of transfers to 437 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 3: the lower income groups to be able to deal with 438 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 3: the silvil unrest. And it's alive and kick in everywhere 439 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 3: in the world right now. And so I would assume 440 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 3: you know that, you know, if you liked any of 441 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 3: these three stories back in twenty twenty, you got to 442 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 3: love them today. 443 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 4: Just going back to the supersycle thesis and the role 444 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 4: of policy, how do we know that the importance of 445 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 4: a lot of these metals, the strategic importance, How do 446 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,160 Speaker 4: we know that that won't end up increasing supply faster 447 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 4: than we expect? You know, part of the story, especially 448 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 4: in copper, is that it's not that many people are 449 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 4: pulling it out of the ground anymore. It takes forever 450 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 4: to get a new mind started. How do we know 451 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 4: that government aren't just going to make it easier to 452 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,360 Speaker 4: get this stuff? And so you'll see a supply response 453 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 4: faster than perhaps you saw previously. 454 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 3: Let's go back to my point. You know these are 455 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 3: twelve years cycles. It's just putting steel in the ground 456 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 3: takes a long time. Even if you got rid of 457 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 3: all of the bureaucracy and red tape. It's going to 458 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 3: take time. But let's go to the critical minerals. Why 459 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 3: does China dominate these They did it because the Soviets 460 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 3: and the Americans didn't want to touch the downstream processes 461 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 3: because of not in my backyard, for nimby reasons. I 462 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 3: mean even the Soviets. I mean remind I say the Soviets, 463 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 3: because this decision was made in the seventies. Remember when 464 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 3: the EPA, the super fun sites and all of that. 465 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 3: The Americans and the Soviets used to do this, they 466 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 3: quit doing it and farmed it out to the Chinese 467 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: because they didn't like doing it in their backyards. There's 468 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,239 Speaker 3: are really highly toxic processes, and so if you're going 469 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 3: to onshore them and bring them back, you've got to 470 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 3: figure out technology used to do this in a way 471 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 3: that's going to deal with those nimby problems that people 472 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 3: didn't want to deal with fifty years ago. So it's 473 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 3: going to be very time consuming. There's ways to get 474 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 3: around it. But you know, whether if I heard you know, 475 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 3: you can build these facilities on army land in the 476 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 3: United States. You don't get any of the bureaucracy around 477 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 3: environmental problems. But even so the last thing, you know, 478 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 3: this stuff you did. You know, if you didn't like 479 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 3: it in the seventies, you're still not going to like 480 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 3: it today. So it's not something that can be resolved overnight. 481 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 3: It's going to take a long time. It's going to 482 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 3: take an enormous amount of capital, new technologies created, re 483 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 3: routing supply chains around the world. That's why I say, then, 484 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 3: where is just the tip of the iceberg on what 485 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 3: needs to be done here, which is why I think 486 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 3: is going to go on, you know, for at least 487 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 3: another decade. And one last point about the super cycle 488 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 3: the seventies and the one in the in the two thousands, 489 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 3: they were sequences of price spikes. They weren't a steady 490 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 3: upward trend. You had one in seventy three, another one 491 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 3: in seventy seven, seventy eight, and another one in eighty. 492 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,120 Speaker 3: In the two thousands, you have one in four oh five, 493 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 3: another one in eight, and then the final finale in eleven, 494 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 3: late ten and eleven it was with Libya and then 495 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 3: copper top eleven thousand. So everybody thinks they're like the 496 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 3: steady upward trend in prices and assets the realities there 497 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,120 Speaker 3: sequence of price bikes, and this one will be more 498 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 3: bubbly in nature. I like to say it's a bubbling 499 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 3: cauldron of supply and demand imbalances. And part of this 500 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 3: is because of what happened with the surge in investment 501 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 3: around let's call it the green investment around net zero 502 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 3: twenty fifty. I like to say that that investment occurred 503 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 3: from around twenty fifteen through about twenty one twenty two. 504 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 3: It created an environment where you have lots of let's say, 505 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 3: renewable win in places like Germany or Spain, but you 506 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 3: don't have the batteries, the grid and the rest of it. 507 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 3: So while that creates is these pockets where you can 508 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 3: see big shifts where you have negative prices of power 509 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 3: at some point explosive prices on their side. So the 510 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 3: one thing about this time around, it's going to create 511 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 3: much higher levels of volatility across the commodity space. Like silver, 512 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 3: you can see you get into these pockets were it'll 513 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,199 Speaker 3: go up and down. And you know whether it was 514 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 3: California power in the two thousands, and that my cycle, 515 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,919 Speaker 3: which sure reminds me what silver's doing today, is you 516 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 3: end up with an environment in which the volatility gets higher. 517 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 3: The volatility then scares investors away. The lack of investment 518 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 3: then reinforces the higher volatility. And I think that that dynamic, 519 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 3: in this bubbling cauldron of supply and demand imbalances is 520 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 3: just going to be that much more vicious this time 521 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 3: around than in the past. 522 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 2: Jeff, you're my favorite person to talk to about commodities. 523 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 2: But my second favorite person to talk to about commodities 524 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 2: is the uber driver that I had in twenty twenty two, 525 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 2: who when he was dropping me off at Bloomberg and 526 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 2: I mentioned this on a previous episode, He's like, Oh, 527 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: I have a thesis. I'm really long silver because it 528 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 2: has all these industrial uses. But silver is frequently mined 529 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 2: as a byproduct of copper production, and there isn't a 530 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 2: lot of new copper production happening at this current state. Therefore, 531 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 2: we're not going to see a big supply response be 532 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 2: elicited on the silver side, and so you're going to 533 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: get this mega squeeze. So here's my second favorite one 534 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 2: that was twenty twenty two, now in January twenty twenty six. 535 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 2: I mean, clearly the price is right, but this phenomenon 536 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 2: as he described it. Does that sound pretty accurate to you? 537 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 3: Absolutely? I mean with all of these by the way 538 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 3: that you can get the supply, it's not a scarcity 539 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 3: of the commodities, whether if it's critical mental even compar 540 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 3: it's like, it's the access. It is the political access 541 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 3: to where the resources. But more importantly, it's the willingness 542 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 3: of capital to provide the money. I like to say, 543 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 3: it's not about the supply and demand of the molecules, 544 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 3: or of the metric tons or the bushels. It's about 545 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 3: the supply and demand of the capital used to create 546 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 3: the production. Therein lies the core problem. And the capital 547 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,959 Speaker 3: has not moved in. So Tracy back your point, how 548 00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 3: long is it go? We haven't even moved the capitol 549 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 3: in yet. The capital is still sitting in the new 550 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 3: economy or asset light world. And the returns. You know, 551 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 3: by the way I've asked people, I go like this 552 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 3: is in like twenty three twenty four, I go, hey, 553 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 3: why don't you want to put money into these this space? 554 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 3: The answer was, Jeff, I agree with your story. The 555 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 3: problem is the tech space is providing such real good 556 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 3: returns that if I am underweight the space. I got 557 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 3: a problem, and I'd rather be putting the money into 558 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 3: what's out before me. That was a case in twenty three, 559 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 3: twenty four, twenty five. 560 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 2: Just to be clear, since the last time we talked 561 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 2: to there has not been a ton of activity in 562 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 2: terms of let's actually start digging. 563 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 3: No, because the pullback in late twenty two and early 564 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 3: twenty three was so vicious across this entire space that 565 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 3: the money they looked at it go I got beaten up. 566 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 3: You know, Curry, you told me to go in back 567 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 3: in twenty and twenty one work for about a year 568 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 3: and a half. I got absolutely cremated on the backside. 569 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 3: I'm not going to do that again. And so they 570 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 3: got beaten up over that time period. Their willingness to 571 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 3: go back in and believe the story is not that high. 572 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 3: They're going to have to see it. And now that's 573 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 3: moved so quick, so fast like it did in twenty two, 574 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 3: that they're going to look at it and go, oh, 575 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 3: I missed it. And I think, you know, it's like 576 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 3: Tracy's point is how much further this go? How sustainable 577 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 3: is it? And I think the key point there is 578 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 3: it's that volatility is discouraging them. And that's why I 579 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 3: tend to think what is going to force the money 580 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 3: into the space is you're going to have to have 581 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 3: the returns in the asset light tech or whatever you 582 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 3: want to call it. World get to a point that 583 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 3: they're going looking at the old economy going I'm willing 584 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 3: to take that risk and go in it because that's 585 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,480 Speaker 3: the only place that has returned. And when they do that, 586 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 3: that's when you're going to end up seeing the rotation. 587 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 3: And I also want to go back to a point 588 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 3: here is the market is so severely underweight all of 589 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 3: this stuff because it's been so hated for so long 590 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 3: that when the. 591 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 4: Money rotates, anti goldbug. 592 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 3: But when the money rotates, it's going to be playing ketchup. 593 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:05,720 Speaker 3: Whether if it's you know, the two and a half 594 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 3: percent waiting of energy in the S and P five 595 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,520 Speaker 3: hundred versus what a seven or eight percent waiting on 596 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,200 Speaker 3: revenues the market cap is too small, and what if 597 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 3: it's in metals and mining and critical money. These things 598 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 3: are just so tiny. It's like I was talking the 599 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 3: other day. You take FCX and let's see ivanhoe mines 600 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 3: and some of the other smaller copper producers, So what 601 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 3: is their market cap is is all together two hundred 602 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:34,479 Speaker 3: billion versus Navidia at four and a half trillion. Now, 603 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you take that money out there, 604 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:37,640 Speaker 3: and that has to go chase the space, and so 605 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 3: you're asking how high can it go? You can go 606 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 3: really high because you're talking about moving trillions of dollars 607 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 3: out of asset light into asset heavy when nothing's been 608 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 3: here for over a decade. 609 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 4: Jeff, very very quickly. Are there any risks to the 610 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 4: structural supercycle thesis? Is there any indicator that you're watching 611 00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 4: to suggest that, Okay, maybe it's not going to happen, 612 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 4: or maybe it's not going to happen at the moment 613 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 4: that you're currently predicting. 614 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 3: I first want to talk about the difference between equities 615 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 3: and commodities. Commodities are driven by the real physical supply 616 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:17,480 Speaker 3: and demand, and equities and financial markets are driven by expectations. 617 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 3: Expectations can or cannot happen. Trying to figure out what 618 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:22,960 Speaker 3: the next person is going to do and what they're 619 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 3: going to buy actually can be modeled and thought through, 620 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 3: but it's less predictable long term supply and demand balances 621 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 3: and commodities. You know, when you have a problem a way, 622 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 3: people don't push back. I mean when I think I 623 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 3: said on the last time here, copper is the best 624 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 3: trade I've seen in terms of fundamentals. Stan Druck of 625 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 3: Miller recently he made the same comment that hey it's tight, 626 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 3: Yeah it's really tight, but it may not work today, tomorrow, 627 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 3: the next day. I know if I sit on the 628 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 3: position and hold it long enough, eventually you'll get to 629 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 3: that point where it does pay out. Because you know 630 00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 3: the physical supply and demand, the rubber meets the road 631 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 3: and you see the rise of prices. Now the question 632 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 3: is can you stay liquid long enough before that event occurs. So, 633 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 3: first of all, the reason why I'm so confident in 634 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 3: these stories is the forward on these markets are incredibly unbalanced, 635 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 3: whether if it is in copper, you know, the industrial metals, 636 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 3: you know, the critical minerals, oil, all of them are 637 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,080 Speaker 3: really imbalanced. Because so that's the thesis why my confidence. Now, 638 00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 3: what is the near term risk. It's not that you 639 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 3: know that you're gonna because we're going to electrify the world. 640 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,960 Speaker 3: You don't have enough copper to electrify the world. The 641 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 3: risk is like the demand for in housing demand in 642 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 3: China collapses, but that happened in twenty three and twenty four, 643 00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 3: so you've already paid the price on that one. So 644 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 3: when I think about these risks that you're talking about, 645 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,719 Speaker 3: they might come from the demand side, because you cannot 646 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,000 Speaker 3: create supply from thin air, so it has to be 647 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 3: demand coming down. But that demand coming down just ultimately 648 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,800 Speaker 3: delays how long it'll take before you run into the province. 649 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,720 Speaker 3: The main reason why copper didn't perform in that twenty 650 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:06,000 Speaker 3: three twenty four timeframe is we underestimated the severity of 651 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,840 Speaker 3: the property contraction in China, and part of that was 652 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 3: the high interest rates. West forced the Chinese to keep 653 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 3: interest rates too high because they had to prevent capital outflow, 654 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 3: and as a result, it really hurt that property sector. 655 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,800 Speaker 3: So that would be you know, it's different than the 656 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 3: financial markets because the expectations can change on a moment 657 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 3: and they're hard to forecast. Bottom line, you need this investment. 658 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 2: Jeff Curry, perfect guest, Perfect day. Thank you so much 659 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:34,400 Speaker 2: for coming back on outline. 660 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 3: Great, thank you for having me. It's quite enjoyable, truly. 661 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 4: The perfect guests. Congrats on all your structural thess that 662 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 4: seem to be playing out great. 663 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,040 Speaker 3: Take care of y'all. 664 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 2: I love that. 665 00:35:58,280 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 3: I think just the best. 666 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 2: She's so good. 667 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 4: I'm so glad we could get him on today. In particular, 668 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,360 Speaker 4: I should just mention we're recording on January twenty ninth. 669 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,799 Speaker 4: The price of is going up so quickly. Who knows 670 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 4: what it's going to be tomorrow. 671 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,279 Speaker 2: I think the most. I mean, there are so many 672 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 2: powerful ideas and compelling notions. To my mind, one of 673 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 2: the strongest ideas that I think is sort of under 674 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,480 Speaker 2: discussed in the debate is the intersection of the commodity 675 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 2: rally and the war on free trade. Right, and you know, 676 00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 2: we look at things they're getting a little bit more 677 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,240 Speaker 2: expensive here, people sort of look like it's the terms 678 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 2: being passed through, et cetera. But this deeper dynamic that 679 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,959 Speaker 2: if you don't have a world of sort of relatively 680 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 2: open trade, then that forces everyone to stockpile, and that 681 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,799 Speaker 2: forces everyone to build their own version, and that'll I'm 682 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,560 Speaker 2: going to build a chip plant here, and I'm going 683 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 2: to build a chip plant there, and I'm going to 684 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,319 Speaker 2: build a chip plant there. Because we're also worried you 685 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,759 Speaker 2: have that duplication. That's the war on free trade that 686 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,360 Speaker 2: whether it's public or private, forces all of this commodity 687 00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:59,240 Speaker 2: intensive spending. 688 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,399 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to say, is it's good to hold 689 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 4: gold and silver coins in? Well, the problem is it 690 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,319 Speaker 4: feels good. It feels good. But well, that's the thing. 691 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 4: I don't even know how to sell. Like I would 692 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 4: have to carry a bunch of gold coins through New 693 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 4: York and find a dealer or something. 694 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 2: You know what, We need to take another trip through 695 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,879 Speaker 2: the diamond diustry. There are plenty of signs on their 696 00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:24,919 Speaker 2: windows we buy gold and so forth. 697 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,760 Speaker 4: Well, I would actually do an episode on buying physical gold. 698 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,240 Speaker 2: Let's do an episode on selling physical Yeah, yeah, how. 699 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,759 Speaker 4: Do you actually do that? Are there certain ways to 700 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 4: do it that are better than others and all of that? Yeah, 701 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 4: totally do that. 702 00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:40,399 Speaker 2: Let's do it. It sounds like you're great. 703 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 4: I have a silver bar somewhere too. I need to 704 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,359 Speaker 4: find that. I like, I'm going to bring it in 705 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,720 Speaker 4: and use it as a paperweight just to annoy you. 706 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 2: Well, I have my I have my what's it called 707 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 2: not the what's that metal? 708 00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 4: That metal that you are obsessed with? 709 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 2: And now you forgot I shouldn't have asked if that's 710 00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,320 Speaker 2: my one. That's my main exposure to hard ass. It's 711 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,399 Speaker 2: that tungsten cube. That's that copweight. I think so. I mean, 712 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,480 Speaker 2: he said every element in the He said, the story 713 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,920 Speaker 2: is that if it's an element in the periodic table, 714 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,800 Speaker 2: it's gone up in price. And I actually think tungsten 715 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 2: has gone up quite a bit in that price. But 716 00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 2: I didn't exactly buy in size. I think my cube 717 00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 2: cross about three hundred dollars, just something like that. 718 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,359 Speaker 4: But okay, shall we leave it there. 719 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:22,080 Speaker 2: Let's leave it there. 720 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,239 Speaker 4: This has been another episode of the Adlots podcast. I'm 721 00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,280 Speaker 4: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 722 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,680 Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 723 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 2: Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand Dashel Bennett 724 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 2: at Dashbot and kel Brooks at Keil Brooks. For more 725 00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,040 Speaker 2: odd Laws content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots. 726 00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,280 Speaker 2: Were have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes 727 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,360 Speaker 2: and you can shed about all of these topics twenty 728 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 2: four to seven in our discord discord dot gg slash. 729 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,839 Speaker 4: Odlines and if you enjoy Oddlots, if you like it 730 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 4: when we talk about commodities. Then please leave us a 731 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,920 Speaker 4: positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if 732 00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,560 Speaker 4: you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all 733 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 4: of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to 734 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 4: do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and 735 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,880 Speaker 4: follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.