WEBVTT - Why Consensus Matters

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Alice Rivlin was

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<v Speaker 1>involved in national economics and social policy making for nearly

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<v Speaker 1>six decades. She was in the administrations of Presidents Lyndon

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson and Bill Clinton. Founding director of the CBO. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about the Congressional Budget Office, vice Chair of the FED,

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<v Speaker 1>and so much more. And Tim, she started writing a

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<v Speaker 1>book that was then finished by her son and daughter

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<v Speaker 1>in law. Yeah, she sadly passed away back in twenty nineteen,

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<v Speaker 1>but her son and daughter in law ended up finishing

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<v Speaker 1>the book we're talking about. Sherry Rivlin and Alan Rivlin.

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<v Speaker 1>Alan joins us right now. He's CEO of Zen Political Research,

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<v Speaker 1>also the co author of Divided We Fall? Why can

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<v Speaker 1>Census Matters? By Alice Rivlin. He joins us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Washington, d c Allan, good to have you

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<v Speaker 1>with us. How are you? It's great to be with you. Tim. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>before I get to the content of the book, can

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<v Speaker 1>you just talk process here, because it's not every day

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<v Speaker 1>that you speak to somebody. Hugh ended up essentially picking

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<v Speaker 1>up the mantle and kind of finishing a book after

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<v Speaker 1>his mother passes away. So take us into how you

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<v Speaker 1>did it in the book writing process that you did

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<v Speaker 1>with your mother and your wife. Um. Well, Alice was

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<v Speaker 1>just very concerned about the state of the economy, but

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<v Speaker 1>especially the state of politics when she passed away in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine, and everyone who knows her knows how focused

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<v Speaker 1>she was on sounding a warning that she put in

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<v Speaker 1>the book. But she ran out of time, and so

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<v Speaker 1>Sherry and I finished the book for her. It took

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<v Speaker 1>us three years, and the world kept changing while we

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<v Speaker 1>were writing it, but it kept changing in ways that

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<v Speaker 1>are bad for America, bad for the world, but made

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<v Speaker 1>the topics we were writing on much more relevant. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's what's kind of fascinating, right, I Mean, this book

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<v Speaker 1>is so timely considering the division that we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>the country and how it was right really written initially

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<v Speaker 1>before the January six insurrection and siege on the US capital.

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<v Speaker 1>Um So tell us about how that evolution of this

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<v Speaker 1>three years. As you said, the world kept changing, how

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<v Speaker 1>that impacted, um what you wanted to include in the

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<v Speaker 1>book while also staying true to your mom exactly. So,

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<v Speaker 1>so we were also writing it with an editor but

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<v Speaker 1>also Brookings Institution scholars UH telling us we needed to

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<v Speaker 1>keep the book relevant, but we didn't want to change

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<v Speaker 1>Alice's book. So we put a forward and an afterward

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of walk people into our process and how

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<v Speaker 1>the world was changing and how it was making the

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<v Speaker 1>book more relevant. But but from chapter one to chapter eleven,

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<v Speaker 1>there's nothing in there that happened after twenty nineteen. We

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<v Speaker 1>save all that for the forward and afterward. Hey, I'm wondering, Alan,

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<v Speaker 1>if you think that Alice would be optimistic or pessimistic

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<v Speaker 1>today both, she'd be worried, she'd be optimistic. She'd be

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<v Speaker 1>UM focused on where we can go from here. They

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<v Speaker 1>are two big things that are going on right now.

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<v Speaker 1>One is the debt and deficit issue UM. The markets

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<v Speaker 1>down again today, and everybody's focused on monetary policy. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But our fiscal policy and monetary policy are out of whack.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think we've given up on fiscal policy, by

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<v Speaker 1>which I mean the size of the deficit and the

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<v Speaker 1>mounting debt UM, so we don't even talk about anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>We we look to the Fed UH to to tighten

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<v Speaker 1>things and get control of inflation. UM. As she want

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<v Speaker 1>would want to be focusing on the deficit. She'd be

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<v Speaker 1>pretty concerned because our politics is broken. She was on

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<v Speaker 1>the deficit reduction commissions, really, both of them, the rivelin

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<v Speaker 1>DOMENICI uh, that's what we call it in our family.

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<v Speaker 1>Other people call it the demenicci Rivlin and then also

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<v Speaker 1>the Simpson Bold and the experts knew how to fix

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<v Speaker 1>our are our deficit and debt in a balanced way

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<v Speaker 1>that would would spread of pain, so there wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>too much pain. Um, but the politicians couldn't get there,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're no closer now. And if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the way things may be headed in the next election,

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<v Speaker 1>we may be headed for divided government and a rerun

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<v Speaker 1>of through world. Well, you know, it's fascinating. I think

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<v Speaker 1>about early on in my coverage of business news in

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<v Speaker 1>the financial markets, we talked about the debt non stop,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, the concerns of it, you know, ballooning

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<v Speaker 1>out of control, and we're way above the level ever

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<v Speaker 1>talk about that. We don't really anymore, and so it's

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting. Shouldn't say never, But it's not something that

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<v Speaker 1>you here dominate the way it used to, and not

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<v Speaker 1>in the political you know way that it was before Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what would you know in terms of the division that

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing, certainly politically, in any effort to move

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<v Speaker 1>forward on major and major initiatives. How does she weigh

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<v Speaker 1>in and how would she see some kind of solution

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<v Speaker 1>for today? Well, know, you asked about would she'd be optimistic?

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<v Speaker 1>And it has to be said that bipartisan cooperation had

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty good year over the past twelve months. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that. But yeah, Piden and McConnell and and

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<v Speaker 1>Pelosi and Schumer that they were able to get a

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<v Speaker 1>whole lot of legislation passed, So it's not completely hopeless.

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<v Speaker 1>In the book, we say by partisanship happens all the time,

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<v Speaker 1>much more than people think, because the press is much

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<v Speaker 1>more interested in covering the conflict than the cooperation. Much

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<v Speaker 1>more than people think, but less than we need because

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<v Speaker 1>there are an awful lot of problems, like the debt

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<v Speaker 1>but also immigration. I mean, she has a long list

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<v Speaker 1>of issues that are sort of the opportunity cost of

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<v Speaker 1>not coming together to solve our problems. Um, so we

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<v Speaker 1>got a lot done. We got the infrastructure bill passed,

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<v Speaker 1>We got a lot done, but we need to get

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<v Speaker 1>a whole lot more done to make the public feel like, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>this democracy is we're saving because it gets things done

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<v Speaker 1>for people. You know, we're a business show and a

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<v Speaker 1>business network, of course, And I'm wondering if you think

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<v Speaker 1>that the financial markets have the wrong incentives when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to the stuff, because you often hear the familiar

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<v Speaker 1>refrain of oh, well, grid luck is good, right, the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that if in a divided house, or uh, in

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<v Speaker 1>a divided administration, then not too much will happen, so

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<v Speaker 1>it's good for financial markets. Um, where do you come

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<v Speaker 1>down on that? Well, first of all, you said, no,

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<v Speaker 1>I spend all day long with Bloomberg, so I am

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<v Speaker 1>very comfortable speaking the language that you have. But I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that it's not just the markets have become

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<v Speaker 1>anti government and and it's good when Congress goes away.

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<v Speaker 1>The whole country has losing faith in all of the

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<v Speaker 1>institutions that the president, Congress, the courts, are military, the

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<v Speaker 1>religious institutions. Were just a world that has two little

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<v Speaker 1>faith and a whole lot of people that are being

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<v Speaker 1>very hard to do things for us and to solve problem.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't do it enough, but they do do it

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<v Speaker 1>much more than we give them credit for. So in

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<v Speaker 1>that sense, I think we need to have more faith

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<v Speaker 1>in ourselves as a nation and of voters. Uh, we

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<v Speaker 1>can govern ourselves. We can elect the right people, we

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<v Speaker 1>can hold accountable. All Right, we're gonna we're gonna leave

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<v Speaker 1>it on that note. Allen, really great to check in

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<v Speaker 1>with you. Really appreciate it. Thanks for spending all day

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<v Speaker 1>with us too. Appreciate that favorite show, Better People Were

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week. That's all we're gonna say, Alan Rivlin, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. Chief Executive Officers and Political Research Divided

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<v Speaker 1>We Fall, Why Consensus Matters? By Alice Rivlin. Um. She

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<v Speaker 1>wrote it, as he said, The bulk of the book

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<v Speaker 1>is what she wrote, but Sherry Rivlin and Allen Rivelin

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<v Speaker 1>also helping put it together and get it out. There's

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<v Speaker 1>just an incredible name, right Vice Chair the Federal Reserve

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<v Speaker 1>of MacArthur Genius Grant recipient. Um, I mean, the list

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<v Speaker 1>goes on