1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Alice Rivlin was 3 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: involved in national economics and social policy making for nearly 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: six decades. She was in the administrations of Presidents Lyndon 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Johnson and Bill Clinton. Founding director of the CBO. We're 6 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: talking about the Congressional Budget Office, vice Chair of the FED, 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: and so much more. And Tim, she started writing a 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: book that was then finished by her son and daughter 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: in law. Yeah, she sadly passed away back in twenty nineteen, 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: but her son and daughter in law ended up finishing 11 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: the book we're talking about. Sherry Rivlin and Alan Rivlin. 12 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: Alan joins us right now. He's CEO of Zen Political Research, 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: also the co author of Divided We Fall? Why can 14 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: Census Matters? By Alice Rivlin. He joins us on the 15 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: phone from Washington, d c Allan, good to have you 16 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: with us. How are you? It's great to be with you. Tim. Well, 17 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: before I get to the content of the book, can 18 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: you just talk process here, because it's not every day 19 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: that you speak to somebody. Hugh ended up essentially picking 20 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: up the mantle and kind of finishing a book after 21 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: his mother passes away. So take us into how you 22 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: did it in the book writing process that you did 23 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: with your mother and your wife. Um. Well, Alice was 24 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: just very concerned about the state of the economy, but 25 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: especially the state of politics when she passed away in 26 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: twenty nine, and everyone who knows her knows how focused 27 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 1: she was on sounding a warning that she put in 28 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 1: the book. But she ran out of time, and so 29 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: Sherry and I finished the book for her. It took 30 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: us three years, and the world kept changing while we 31 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: were writing it, but it kept changing in ways that 32 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: are bad for America, bad for the world, but made 33 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: the topics we were writing on much more relevant. And 34 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: that's what's kind of fascinating, right, I Mean, this book 35 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: is so timely considering the division that we've seen in 36 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: the country and how it was right really written initially 37 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: before the January six insurrection and siege on the US capital. 38 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: Um So tell us about how that evolution of this 39 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: three years. As you said, the world kept changing, how 40 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: that impacted, um what you wanted to include in the 41 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: book while also staying true to your mom exactly. So, 42 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: so we were also writing it with an editor but 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: also Brookings Institution scholars UH telling us we needed to 44 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: keep the book relevant, but we didn't want to change 45 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 1: Alice's book. So we put a forward and an afterward 46 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: to sort of walk people into our process and how 47 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: the world was changing and how it was making the 48 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: book more relevant. But but from chapter one to chapter eleven, 49 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: there's nothing in there that happened after twenty nineteen. We 50 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: save all that for the forward and afterward. Hey, I'm wondering, Alan, 51 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: if you think that Alice would be optimistic or pessimistic 52 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: today both, she'd be worried, she'd be optimistic. She'd be 53 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: UM focused on where we can go from here. They 54 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: are two big things that are going on right now. 55 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: One is the debt and deficit issue UM. The markets 56 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: down again today, and everybody's focused on monetary policy. UM. 57 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: But our fiscal policy and monetary policy are out of whack. 58 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: And I think we've given up on fiscal policy, by 59 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: which I mean the size of the deficit and the 60 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: mounting debt UM, so we don't even talk about anymore. 61 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: We we look to the Fed UH to to tighten 62 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: things and get control of inflation. UM. As she want 63 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: would want to be focusing on the deficit. She'd be 64 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: pretty concerned because our politics is broken. She was on 65 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: the deficit reduction commissions, really, both of them, the rivelin 66 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: DOMENICI uh, that's what we call it in our family. 67 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: Other people call it the demenicci Rivlin and then also 68 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: the Simpson Bold and the experts knew how to fix 69 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: our are our deficit and debt in a balanced way 70 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: that would would spread of pain, so there wouldn't be 71 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: too much pain. Um, but the politicians couldn't get there, 72 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: and they're no closer now. And if you look at 73 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: the way things may be headed in the next election, 74 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: we may be headed for divided government and a rerun 75 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: of through world. Well, you know, it's fascinating. I think 76 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: about early on in my coverage of business news in 77 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: the financial markets, we talked about the debt non stop, 78 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: and you know, the concerns of it, you know, ballooning 79 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: out of control, and we're way above the level ever 80 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,039 Speaker 1: talk about that. We don't really anymore, and so it's 81 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: really interesting. Shouldn't say never, But it's not something that 82 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: you here dominate the way it used to, and not 83 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: in the political you know way that it was before Um, 84 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: what would you know in terms of the division that 85 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: we are seeing, certainly politically, in any effort to move 86 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 1: forward on major and major initiatives. How does she weigh 87 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: in and how would she see some kind of solution 88 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: for today? Well, know, you asked about would she'd be optimistic? 89 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: And it has to be said that bipartisan cooperation had 90 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: a pretty good year over the past twelve months. Uh, 91 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: you know that. But yeah, Piden and McConnell and and 92 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: Pelosi and Schumer that they were able to get a 93 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: whole lot of legislation passed, So it's not completely hopeless. 94 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: In the book, we say by partisanship happens all the time, 95 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: much more than people think, because the press is much 96 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: more interested in covering the conflict than the cooperation. Much 97 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: more than people think, but less than we need because 98 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: there are an awful lot of problems, like the debt 99 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: but also immigration. I mean, she has a long list 100 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: of issues that are sort of the opportunity cost of 101 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: not coming together to solve our problems. Um, so we 102 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: got a lot done. We got the infrastructure bill passed, 103 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: We got a lot done, but we need to get 104 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: a whole lot more done to make the public feel like, uh, 105 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: this democracy is we're saving because it gets things done 106 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: for people. You know, we're a business show and a 107 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: business network, of course, And I'm wondering if you think 108 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: that the financial markets have the wrong incentives when it 109 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: comes to the stuff, because you often hear the familiar 110 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: refrain of oh, well, grid luck is good, right, the 111 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: idea that if in a divided house, or uh, in 112 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: a divided administration, then not too much will happen, so 113 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: it's good for financial markets. Um, where do you come 114 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: down on that? Well, first of all, you said, no, 115 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: I spend all day long with Bloomberg, so I am 116 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: very comfortable speaking the language that you have. But I 117 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: do think that it's not just the markets have become 118 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: anti government and and it's good when Congress goes away. 119 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: The whole country has losing faith in all of the 120 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: institutions that the president, Congress, the courts, are military, the 121 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: religious institutions. Were just a world that has two little 122 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: faith and a whole lot of people that are being 123 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,239 Speaker 1: very hard to do things for us and to solve problem. 124 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: They don't do it enough, but they do do it 125 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: much more than we give them credit for. So in 126 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: that sense, I think we need to have more faith 127 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: in ourselves as a nation and of voters. Uh, we 128 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: can govern ourselves. We can elect the right people, we 129 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: can hold accountable. All Right, we're gonna we're gonna leave 130 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: it on that note. Allen, really great to check in 131 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: with you. Really appreciate it. Thanks for spending all day 132 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: with us too. Appreciate that favorite show, Better People Were 133 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: Business Week. That's all we're gonna say, Alan Rivlin, thank 134 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: you so much. Chief Executive Officers and Political Research Divided 135 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: We Fall, Why Consensus Matters? By Alice Rivlin. Um. She 136 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: wrote it, as he said, The bulk of the book 137 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: is what she wrote, but Sherry Rivlin and Allen Rivelin 138 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: also helping put it together and get it out. There's 139 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: just an incredible name, right Vice Chair the Federal Reserve 140 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: of MacArthur Genius Grant recipient. Um, I mean, the list 141 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: goes on