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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.
Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. Stocks are higher, little changed after the
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred index captit's longest stretch of monthly advances
Speaker 1: since two thousand fourteen. IF begins the new trading month
Speaker 1: with an update. SMP five hundred index now at two
Speaker 1: thousand ninety nine, advancing two points, up one tenth of
Speaker 1: one percent down. Industrials up nine a gain of point
Speaker 1: one percent. Naz stack up three points, a gain of
Speaker 1: point one percent. Ten yere yield one point eight four percent.
Speaker 1: Gold down to forty bence to twelve fifteen, a drop
Speaker 1: of two tenths of one percent. Crude oil up eleven
Speaker 1: cents one for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude.
Speaker 1: Again there of two tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett.
Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg Business Flash, pelle It. Thank you so
Speaker 1: very much. It's time now for the e t F Report,
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Speaker 1: access the opportunities. For our e t F report, we
Speaker 1: turn to our own Catherine Cowtery. Crude oil has wrapped
Speaker 1: up its longest run of monthly games in five years,
Speaker 1: advancing for four straight months. Oil has surged more than
Speaker 1: eighty five percent since touching a twelve year low in February.
Speaker 1: Yet investors in oil ets haven't seen the same returns.
Speaker 1: Here's Bloomberg Intelligence sandialist Eric beltunis, We've been talking for
Speaker 1: the last two years about all the flows that have
Speaker 1: gone into oil ETFs. For the past years, it added up.
Speaker 1: It's about twenty six billion dollars of people trying to
Speaker 1: call a bottom and oil well, obviously oil is rebounding
Speaker 1: this year. You know, the lottery ticket has come in.
Speaker 1: But unfortunately a lot of the e t f s
Speaker 1: that were being used to try to play the rebound
Speaker 1: in oil have lagged. Spot Boltunist uses the United States
Speaker 1: Oil Fund e t F for USO as an example.
Speaker 1: It's up nine percent so far this here less than
Speaker 1: half they gain a spot oil. The reason is because
Speaker 1: US it doesn't track spot oil or a barrel oil
Speaker 1: tracts futures and you have to maintain a position, and
Speaker 1: there's role costs. We get into the weeds here, but
Speaker 1: it's a complicated situation and those roll costs corroded over time.
Speaker 1: And that's your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Cowdery. You're
Speaker 1: listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Kind of mixed day if you look
Speaker 1: at the economy and the big reports out today. Auto
Speaker 1: sales looking not so hot if you're a big three
Speaker 1: auto maker, but US manufacturing looking like maybe it's not
Speaker 1: doing so badly in May after he got the I
Speaker 1: s MS Manufacturing survey. So where are are the markets going?
Speaker 1: And where should we all be putting our money? That's
Speaker 1: we're gonna ask our next guests. Scott Colier. He is
Speaker 1: chief Executive Officer, CEO, Chief Investment Officer and c i
Speaker 1: O an advisor's asset management more than sixteen billion dollars
Speaker 1: of assets under management, usually in Colorado Springs, Colorado, but
Speaker 1: he is here in our New York studio today, home
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg eleven. So welcome, Thank you. So what is
Speaker 1: your sense right now, Scott of the stock market. A
Speaker 1: lot of people are worried about valuations stretched, earnings have
Speaker 1: been weak, and they don't look like they're gonna get
Speaker 1: a lot stronger at time when sure you can buy stocks,
Speaker 1: but you have to buy them individually and very carefully.
Speaker 1: What's your view. I think my view would be more
Speaker 1: traditionally that the more people worried, the better I probably
Speaker 1: liked the market. I tend to be a little bit
Speaker 1: on the value side of things. Maybe I think consensus
Speaker 1: might be a bit uh a bit off here. If
Speaker 1: you look, I think at thirty thousand foot view, the
Speaker 1: environment is very good for earnings to grow in the future.
Speaker 1: We had a bit of a dollar headwind last year.
Speaker 1: We don't have that this year. Actually, I think that
Speaker 1: becomes a little bit of a tailwind. I think the consumer,
Speaker 1: if you look at them, they may have not bought
Speaker 1: as many cars in April, but they're still buying cars
Speaker 1: at close to a record rate. Housing market looks to
Speaker 1: be picking up, consumer credit is growing. I think we
Speaker 1: have a very healthy consumer. They're about us GDP. I'm
Speaker 1: very comfortable, probably where the markets are. And I think
Speaker 1: that that so many people are worried, it makes me
Speaker 1: actually feel better about it. Is the FED on your
Speaker 1: radar screen or would you just say, Hey, they can
Speaker 1: even raise rates two more times this year, doesn't make
Speaker 1: any difference. Well, I wish they the FED was more
Speaker 1: on my my radar screen than they are. I think
Speaker 1: if they were threatening to to raise rates for times
Speaker 1: a year, that would be better for us. That would
Speaker 1: mean that we would have actually upward pressure on earnings,
Speaker 1: we would have upward pressure on wages, and it would
Speaker 1: give them a reason to worry about slowing us down.
Speaker 1: Right now, they're still worried about speeding us up. So
Speaker 1: we're just kind of trudging along. And I think the
Speaker 1: FED is going to I don't think they're gonna do
Speaker 1: anything to upset the apple cart. Maybe one raise this year,
Speaker 1: but quite frankly bases points. I don't think anybody cares. Now.
Speaker 1: You said you look for value and one of the
Speaker 1: sectors that you are in favor of right now is energy.
Speaker 1: Is that because you say it's so beaten up and
Speaker 1: the bottom is in now is it time to buy? Well,
Speaker 1: it's not a timing call so much as what we've
Speaker 1: done is we've destroyed all the investment to find more
Speaker 1: of the stuff that we're depleting on a daily basis.
Speaker 1: So what we're not doing is we've we've laid all
Speaker 1: of our rigs down. We're not looking for anymore. So
Speaker 1: quite frankly, if you have any growth in demand, which
Speaker 1: we're actually seeing growth in global demand, we're not finding anymore.
Speaker 1: We're actually sowing the seeds for the for the next
Speaker 1: upward push in oil prices. Do I think the bottom
Speaker 1: was put in? I tend to think it's put in,
Speaker 1: not because we hit twenty six dollars. I'm not an
Speaker 1: expert in the oil industry, but what I do see
Speaker 1: or term structures that are going from a sharp contango
Speaker 1: which you're you're bidding for storage, to more of a
Speaker 1: well supplied market, but a more balanced market. So uh,
Speaker 1: I think the concern even that OPEC meeting is going
Speaker 1: to have tomorrow. They're not meeting because they don't know
Speaker 1: each other and they want to get to know each other.
Speaker 1: They're meeting because they're all concerned that they want to
Speaker 1: support higher prices. You like industrials and manufacturing, Why I do,
Speaker 1: because they do well when we have economic growth, and
Speaker 1: I think the the environment in the United States as
Speaker 1: well as Europe and in Asia is very friendly to
Speaker 1: economic growth at this point in time. Financials banks, big banks,
Speaker 1: medium sized banks, regionals what well. I think regionals are
Speaker 1: better than big banks. Big banks are quite frankly, quite overregulated,
Speaker 1: and they you know, they don't have really the earnings
Speaker 1: power they used to their more of a financial utility.
Speaker 1: So if you're talking about financials in the United States,
Speaker 1: I would pick the regionals over over the large banks.
Speaker 1: Precious metals gold different precious metal silver. Thus are they
Speaker 1: They've actually done quite well after a very long bear market,
Speaker 1: so maybe four or five years. They Commodities really have
Speaker 1: been the worst performer if you look at the the
Speaker 1: chart of best performing parts of the market, and worst
Speaker 1: performing commodities have been on the absolute bottom for the
Speaker 1: last four years. Commodities do well when we see growth,
Speaker 1: When you see growth and demand, they tend to do well.
Speaker 1: Gold and silver may have a different they may they're
Speaker 1: almost treated as a different class than than commodities, even
Speaker 1: though I would argue they've all pretty much bottomed together.
Speaker 1: Gold is is also a currency, and it's a currency
Speaker 1: that's universal and when we see central banks buying them
Speaker 1: in huge amounts like we do now, everybody's trying to
Speaker 1: weaken their own currency. What do you think I think
Speaker 1: gold might not be a bad place to go alright,
Speaker 1: Scott call, of course, as I said, you're CEO and
Speaker 1: Advisor's asset management, You're based in Colorado Springs, and you
Speaker 1: have a very global outlook. You have a global overallocation. China, Japan, Europe,
Speaker 1: emerging markets. Let's start with Japan. I'm really focused on
Speaker 1: them today. You know, the Prime Minister decided he you know,
Speaker 1: he put up a lot of red flags. And yes,
Speaker 1: they're not going to raise their consumption tax. They've done
Speaker 1: that in the past a couple of times and pushed
Speaker 1: their economy into recessions. But you like Japan. Why Japan
Speaker 1: is is a great amount of value. But they've been
Speaker 1: a great amount of value for quite some time, very
Speaker 1: cash rich companies that trade in in Tokyo, and they
Speaker 1: trade it at very low multiple. So to the extent
Speaker 1: that abeonomics could produce any type of growth whatsoever, we
Speaker 1: think there's a tremendous amount of value in the knee King.
Speaker 1: And do you think that's gonna happen. Is it gonna
Speaker 1: produce ground? Well, I do believe that they will keep
Speaker 1: trying until they get it. One of the you know,
Speaker 1: if you're talking about delaying the consumption tax by two years,
Speaker 1: that is only one step that they've they've taken. Obviously
Speaker 1: they are they were kind of the first to go
Speaker 1: into the negative interest rate area after after the ECB
Speaker 1: tried it. I'm not really sure that that's going to
Speaker 1: produce growth. But once again, if you're a business person globally,
Speaker 1: there has never been a more easy um environment for
Speaker 1: you to try to grow business. Okay, let's hit on
Speaker 1: a couple more of these real quick. Here. You like
Speaker 1: China and how would you invest there? How do you
Speaker 1: invest there? Well, I'm not I'm not quite uh brave
Speaker 1: enough to to wade into the red chips, so we
Speaker 1: would stay in the hangs saying that, you know, this
Speaker 1: is the Hong Kong market. These are the shares that
Speaker 1: are are legally tradeable outside of outside of China. They
Speaker 1: tend to be the biggest of the blue chips, and
Speaker 1: I think I would stay uh in that area if
Speaker 1: I were going to try to trade China. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: see your emerging market picks. You've got Latin America, Russia,
Speaker 1: and India, Latin America broadly Mexico. Yeah, so well, Mexico
Speaker 1: is a is a good example. But you always you
Speaker 1: tend to buy Latin America and emerging markets when they
Speaker 1: look the worst. But I would tell you that there
Speaker 1: is something going on in in in Latin America where
Speaker 1: we're having a change in governments. We've had a change
Speaker 1: in the Argentine government. We're now having a change in
Speaker 1: the Brazilian in government. The president has been impeached and
Speaker 1: she is now out for six months trying to defend herself.
Speaker 1: But also in Bolivia, they refuse to UH to rewrite
Speaker 1: their constitution to allow for a third UH term of presidency.
Speaker 1: And you're also seeing what you know, Venezuela follow apart
Speaker 1: right in front of us. So I would suggest to
Speaker 1: you that the new governments are more pro business. This
Speaker 1: is the time you tend to want to buy those markets.
Speaker 1: We expect an upturning global growth and I think they
Speaker 1: benefit from that. Ten or fifteen seconds, do you like Russia, well,
Speaker 1: liking Russia or not liking Russia. I think Russia, Russia's
Speaker 1: economy is very much tied to commodity. So if I
Speaker 1: like the commodity story, I tend to like the future
Speaker 1: of Russia. There's more political risk there, but I would
Speaker 1: suggest to you that you're probably being paid well to
Speaker 1: take the risk you like investing in rusting. I thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Scott called. Great to have you on
Speaker 1: the show today. Thank you. CEO Advisor's Asset Management. Colorado
Speaker 1: Springs is his bass season our New York studio today.
Speaker 1: I'm Kathleen Hayes. This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Yeah,