1
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

2
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,920
Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and on your radio.

3
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:14,480
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.

4
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,400
Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. Stocks are higher, little changed after the

5
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,680
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred index captit's longest stretch of monthly advances

6
00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,880
Speaker 1: since two thousand fourteen. IF begins the new trading month

7
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,320
Speaker 1: with an update. SMP five hundred index now at two

8
00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,839
Speaker 1: thousand ninety nine, advancing two points, up one tenth of

9
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,360
Speaker 1: one percent down. Industrials up nine a gain of point

10
00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,280
Speaker 1: one percent. Naz stack up three points, a gain of

11
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:43,280
Speaker 1: point one percent. Ten yere yield one point eight four percent.

12
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,520
Speaker 1: Gold down to forty bence to twelve fifteen, a drop

13
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 1: of two tenths of one percent. Crude oil up eleven

14
00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,760
Speaker 1: cents one for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude.

15
00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,560
Speaker 1: Again there of two tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett.

16
00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg Business Flash, pelle It. Thank you so

17
00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,000
Speaker 1: very much. It's time now for the e t F Report,

18
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,160
Speaker 1: brought to you by Van Eck Vectors. E t F

19
00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,800
Speaker 1: S expect more from your muni's target taxes and income

20
00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,520
Speaker 1: by maturity and credit quality, all with lows cost e

21
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,120
Speaker 1: t f s. Visit vanek dot com slash Muni Vanek

22
00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,000
Speaker 1: access the opportunities. For our e t F report, we

23
00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,000
Speaker 1: turn to our own Catherine Cowtery. Crude oil has wrapped

24
00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 1: up its longest run of monthly games in five years,

25
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: advancing for four straight months. Oil has surged more than

26
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 1: eighty five percent since touching a twelve year low in February.

27
00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,480
Speaker 1: Yet investors in oil ets haven't seen the same returns.

28
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:40,160
Speaker 1: Here's Bloomberg Intelligence sandialist Eric beltunis, We've been talking for

29
00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:41,800
Speaker 1: the last two years about all the flows that have

30
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,959
Speaker 1: gone into oil ETFs. For the past years, it added up.

31
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,200
Speaker 1: It's about twenty six billion dollars of people trying to

32
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 1: call a bottom and oil well, obviously oil is rebounding

33
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,480
Speaker 1: this year. You know, the lottery ticket has come in.

34
00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 1: But unfortunately a lot of the e t f s

35
00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 1: that were being used to try to play the rebound

36
00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 1: in oil have lagged. Spot Boltunist uses the United States

37
00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,880
Speaker 1: Oil Fund e t F for USO as an example.

38
00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,400
Speaker 1: It's up nine percent so far this here less than

39
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,880
Speaker 1: half they gain a spot oil. The reason is because

40
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,160
Speaker 1: US it doesn't track spot oil or a barrel oil

41
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,880
Speaker 1: tracts futures and you have to maintain a position, and

42
00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,200
Speaker 1: there's role costs. We get into the weeds here, but

43
00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:19,919
Speaker 1: it's a complicated situation and those roll costs corroded over time.

44
00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 1: And that's your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Cowdery. You're

45
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,799
Speaker 1: listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox

46
00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,240
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Kind of mixed day if you look

47
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,320
Speaker 1: at the economy and the big reports out today. Auto

48
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,960
Speaker 1: sales looking not so hot if you're a big three

49
00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,600
Speaker 1: auto maker, but US manufacturing looking like maybe it's not

50
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,320
Speaker 1: doing so badly in May after he got the I

51
00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:48,919
Speaker 1: s MS Manufacturing survey. So where are are the markets going?

52
00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:50,800
Speaker 1: And where should we all be putting our money? That's

53
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,360
Speaker 1: we're gonna ask our next guests. Scott Colier. He is

54
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,440
Speaker 1: chief Executive Officer, CEO, Chief Investment Officer and c i

55
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,480
Speaker 1: O an advisor's asset management more than sixteen billion dollars

56
00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,560
Speaker 1: of assets under management, usually in Colorado Springs, Colorado, but

57
00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,160
Speaker 1: he is here in our New York studio today, home

58
00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,280
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg eleven. So welcome, Thank you. So what is

59
00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,080
Speaker 1: your sense right now, Scott of the stock market. A

60
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:22,360
Speaker 1: lot of people are worried about valuations stretched, earnings have

61
00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: been weak, and they don't look like they're gonna get

62
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,360
Speaker 1: a lot stronger at time when sure you can buy stocks,

63
00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,960
Speaker 1: but you have to buy them individually and very carefully.

64
00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,240
Speaker 1: What's your view. I think my view would be more

65
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,160
Speaker 1: traditionally that the more people worried, the better I probably

66
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: liked the market. I tend to be a little bit

67
00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 1: on the value side of things. Maybe I think consensus

68
00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,240
Speaker 1: might be a bit uh a bit off here. If

69
00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 1: you look, I think at thirty thousand foot view, the

70
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,440
Speaker 1: environment is very good for earnings to grow in the future.

71
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,920
Speaker 1: We had a bit of a dollar headwind last year.

72
00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,560
Speaker 1: We don't have that this year. Actually, I think that

73
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,240
Speaker 1: becomes a little bit of a tailwind. I think the consumer,

74
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,000
Speaker 1: if you look at them, they may have not bought

75
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 1: as many cars in April, but they're still buying cars

76
00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,640
Speaker 1: at close to a record rate. Housing market looks to

77
00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 1: be picking up, consumer credit is growing. I think we

78
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,240
Speaker 1: have a very healthy consumer. They're about us GDP. I'm

79
00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,840
Speaker 1: very comfortable, probably where the markets are. And I think

80
00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,359
Speaker 1: that that so many people are worried, it makes me

81
00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,560
Speaker 1: actually feel better about it. Is the FED on your

82
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 1: radar screen or would you just say, Hey, they can

83
00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,240
Speaker 1: even raise rates two more times this year, doesn't make

84
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,960
Speaker 1: any difference. Well, I wish they the FED was more

85
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,360
Speaker 1: on my my radar screen than they are. I think

86
00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,000
Speaker 1: if they were threatening to to raise rates for times

87
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,240
Speaker 1: a year, that would be better for us. That would

88
00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,760
Speaker 1: mean that we would have actually upward pressure on earnings,

89
00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,760
Speaker 1: we would have upward pressure on wages, and it would

90
00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 1: give them a reason to worry about slowing us down.

91
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,640
Speaker 1: Right now, they're still worried about speeding us up. So

92
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 1: we're just kind of trudging along. And I think the

93
00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,000
Speaker 1: FED is going to I don't think they're gonna do

94
00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,120
Speaker 1: anything to upset the apple cart. Maybe one raise this year,

95
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,920
Speaker 1: but quite frankly bases points. I don't think anybody cares. Now.

96
00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,560
Speaker 1: You said you look for value and one of the

97
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:10,240
Speaker 1: sectors that you are in favor of right now is energy.

98
00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,680
Speaker 1: Is that because you say it's so beaten up and

99
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,720
Speaker 1: the bottom is in now is it time to buy? Well,

100
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 1: it's not a timing call so much as what we've

101
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,360
Speaker 1: done is we've destroyed all the investment to find more

102
00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,240
Speaker 1: of the stuff that we're depleting on a daily basis.

103
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,600
Speaker 1: So what we're not doing is we've we've laid all

104
00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,960
Speaker 1: of our rigs down. We're not looking for anymore. So

105
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,480
Speaker 1: quite frankly, if you have any growth in demand, which

106
00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,839
Speaker 1: we're actually seeing growth in global demand, we're not finding anymore.

107
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,760
Speaker 1: We're actually sowing the seeds for the for the next

108
00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,919
Speaker 1: upward push in oil prices. Do I think the bottom

109
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:44,880
Speaker 1: was put in? I tend to think it's put in,

110
00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,920
Speaker 1: not because we hit twenty six dollars. I'm not an

111
00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 1: expert in the oil industry, but what I do see

112
00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,760
Speaker 1: or term structures that are going from a sharp contango

113
00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,000
Speaker 1: which you're you're bidding for storage, to more of a

114
00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,680
Speaker 1: well supplied market, but a more balanced market. So uh,

115
00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,800
Speaker 1: I think the concern even that OPEC meeting is going

116
00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 1: to have tomorrow. They're not meeting because they don't know

117
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 1: each other and they want to get to know each other.

118
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,839
Speaker 1: They're meeting because they're all concerned that they want to

119
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,040
Speaker 1: support higher prices. You like industrials and manufacturing, Why I do,

120
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,680
Speaker 1: because they do well when we have economic growth, and

121
00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,000
Speaker 1: I think the the environment in the United States as

122
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,279
Speaker 1: well as Europe and in Asia is very friendly to

123
00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:26,600
Speaker 1: economic growth at this point in time. Financials banks, big banks,

124
00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,360
Speaker 1: medium sized banks, regionals what well. I think regionals are

125
00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,480
Speaker 1: better than big banks. Big banks are quite frankly, quite overregulated,

126
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 1: and they you know, they don't have really the earnings

127
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,640
Speaker 1: power they used to their more of a financial utility.

128
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: So if you're talking about financials in the United States,

129
00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,000
Speaker 1: I would pick the regionals over over the large banks.

130
00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:50,279
Speaker 1: Precious metals gold different precious metal silver. Thus are they

131
00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,040
Speaker 1: They've actually done quite well after a very long bear market,

132
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,240
Speaker 1: so maybe four or five years. They Commodities really have

133
00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,120
Speaker 1: been the worst performer if you look at the the

134
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,080
Speaker 1: chart of best performing parts of the market, and worst

135
00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,880
Speaker 1: performing commodities have been on the absolute bottom for the

136
00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,440
Speaker 1: last four years. Commodities do well when we see growth,

137
00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,560
Speaker 1: When you see growth and demand, they tend to do well.

138
00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 1: Gold and silver may have a different they may they're

139
00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 1: almost treated as a different class than than commodities, even

140
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,160
Speaker 1: though I would argue they've all pretty much bottomed together.

141
00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,520
Speaker 1: Gold is is also a currency, and it's a currency

142
00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,800
Speaker 1: that's universal and when we see central banks buying them

143
00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,960
Speaker 1: in huge amounts like we do now, everybody's trying to

144
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 1: weaken their own currency. What do you think I think

145
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,120
Speaker 1: gold might not be a bad place to go alright,

146
00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:39,080
Speaker 1: Scott call, of course, as I said, you're CEO and

147
00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:41,760
Speaker 1: Advisor's asset management, You're based in Colorado Springs, and you

148
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:47,119
Speaker 1: have a very global outlook. You have a global overallocation. China, Japan, Europe,

149
00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 1: emerging markets. Let's start with Japan. I'm really focused on

150
00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,360
Speaker 1: them today. You know, the Prime Minister decided he you know,

151
00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,200
Speaker 1: he put up a lot of red flags. And yes,

152
00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 1: they're not going to raise their consumption tax. They've done

153
00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 1: that in the past a couple of times and pushed

154
00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:08,760
Speaker 1: their economy into recessions. But you like Japan. Why Japan

155
00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:13,760
Speaker 1: is is a great amount of value. But they've been

156
00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,200
Speaker 1: a great amount of value for quite some time, very

157
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,280
Speaker 1: cash rich companies that trade in in Tokyo, and they

158
00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,920
Speaker 1: trade it at very low multiple. So to the extent

159
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,720
Speaker 1: that abeonomics could produce any type of growth whatsoever, we

160
00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,800
Speaker 1: think there's a tremendous amount of value in the knee King.

161
00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: And do you think that's gonna happen. Is it gonna

162
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,120
Speaker 1: produce ground? Well, I do believe that they will keep

163
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 1: trying until they get it. One of the you know,

164
00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,440
Speaker 1: if you're talking about delaying the consumption tax by two years,

165
00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,959
Speaker 1: that is only one step that they've they've taken. Obviously

166
00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,040
Speaker 1: they are they were kind of the first to go

167
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,199
Speaker 1: into the negative interest rate area after after the ECB

168
00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,439
Speaker 1: tried it. I'm not really sure that that's going to

169
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:58,120
Speaker 1: produce growth. But once again, if you're a business person globally,

170
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,280
Speaker 1: there has never been a more easy um environment for

171
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 1: you to try to grow business. Okay, let's hit on

172
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: a couple more of these real quick. Here. You like

173
00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,120
Speaker 1: China and how would you invest there? How do you

174
00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:14,800
Speaker 1: invest there? Well, I'm not I'm not quite uh brave

175
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 1: enough to to wade into the red chips, so we

176
00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,120
Speaker 1: would stay in the hangs saying that, you know, this

177
00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 1: is the Hong Kong market. These are the shares that

178
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,600
Speaker 1: are are legally tradeable outside of outside of China. They

179
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 1: tend to be the biggest of the blue chips, and

180
00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,520
Speaker 1: I think I would stay uh in that area if

181
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 1: I were going to try to trade China. Okay, let's

182
00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,320
Speaker 1: see your emerging market picks. You've got Latin America, Russia,

183
00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,760
Speaker 1: and India, Latin America broadly Mexico. Yeah, so well, Mexico

184
00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,520
Speaker 1: is a is a good example. But you always you

185
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: tend to buy Latin America and emerging markets when they

186
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:50,600
Speaker 1: look the worst. But I would tell you that there

187
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:54,200
Speaker 1: is something going on in in in Latin America where

188
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,680
Speaker 1: we're having a change in governments. We've had a change

189
00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,400
Speaker 1: in the Argentine government. We're now having a change in

190
00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,679
Speaker 1: the Brazilian in government. The president has been impeached and

191
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,000
Speaker 1: she is now out for six months trying to defend herself.

192
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:12,160
Speaker 1: But also in Bolivia, they refuse to UH to rewrite

193
00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:17,200
Speaker 1: their constitution to allow for a third UH term of presidency.

194
00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,840
Speaker 1: And you're also seeing what you know, Venezuela follow apart

195
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,640
Speaker 1: right in front of us. So I would suggest to

196
00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,040
Speaker 1: you that the new governments are more pro business. This

197
00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,600
Speaker 1: is the time you tend to want to buy those markets.

198
00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,320
Speaker 1: We expect an upturning global growth and I think they

199
00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:36,080
Speaker 1: benefit from that. Ten or fifteen seconds, do you like Russia, well,

200
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,920
Speaker 1: liking Russia or not liking Russia. I think Russia, Russia's

201
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,080
Speaker 1: economy is very much tied to commodity. So if I

202
00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,920
Speaker 1: like the commodity story, I tend to like the future

203
00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,640
Speaker 1: of Russia. There's more political risk there, but I would

204
00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:52,800
Speaker 1: suggest to you that you're probably being paid well to

205
00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,480
Speaker 1: take the risk you like investing in rusting. I thank

206
00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 1: you so much. Scott called. Great to have you on

207
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 1: the show today. Thank you. CEO Advisor's Asset Management. Colorado

208
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,720
Speaker 1: Springs is his bass season our New York studio today.

209
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:12,960
Speaker 1: I'm Kathleen Hayes. This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Yeah,