1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: All right, let's direct to Michael McKee's out there in 7 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: Jackson Hole. Hey, Michael, as we get into FED Chairman 8 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 2: Pal's speech tomorrow, how have expectations been changing. What do 9 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 2: you think is going to drive his commentary tomorrow. 10 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 3: Well, probably people are starting to change their expectations based 11 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 3: on the minutes that were released yesterday of the July 12 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: thirtieth meeting, because it emphasized the fact that almost all 13 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 3: of the members of the Open Market Committee, except for 14 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: Chris Waller and Mickey Bowman, were more focused on inflation 15 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 3: than they were on the labor market. Now, that was 16 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 3: before we got the bad revision to the July payroll report. 17 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 3: But if we get another payroll report that's similar, even 18 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 3: if we're not getting a lot of hiring but the 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 3: unemployment rate stays low, then the focus really does stay 20 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 3: on inflation. So it'll be interesting to see what Powell 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 3: emphasizes tomorrow because today, of course, we got the Walmart 22 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 3: news that was mixed in terms of earnings, but they 23 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 3: did say prices are going up because of tariffs, and 24 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 3: then we saw the Philadelphia Fed Index prices paid rise significantly. 25 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 3: So we are seeing some inflation effects out there in 26 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:38,279 Speaker 3: the economy. And if Powell leans towards inflation, then maybe 27 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 3: the heavy lean in the markets towards the rate cut 28 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: in September backs off a little. 29 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 4: Hey, Mike, as far as what is the market betting 30 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 4: that Powell will say versus in reality what we will 31 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: likely cure him end up saying. 32 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 3: Well, right now, when you look at the WRP function 33 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: on the terminal, you see we're in the eighty percent range. 34 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 3: Eighty and higher. Depending on the headlines of the moment 35 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 3: that people think that the Fed will cut rate wants 36 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: twenty five basis points. The fifty basis points has probably 37 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 3: gone out the window. But as I say, there are 38 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 3: probably going to be some people reconsidering after what we 39 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 3: got yesterday in the minutes, and then of course you 40 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 3: read about the options trade on the fifty basis point cut. 41 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 3: I think if you're holding those options, you're probably sitting 42 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: there thinking now that we're probably they're probably going to 43 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 3: expire without hitting the mark. 44 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 2: Hey, micro starting, we do have some dissent on this FOMC. 45 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: Talk to us about that. Historically, should we care? When 46 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 2: does it become problematic? How should we think about that? 47 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 3: Well, there's a lot going on, it's not necessarily problematic 48 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: for a while. You'd have to have a significant turnover 49 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 3: at the Open Market Committee to have anybody really be concerned. 50 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 3: There is what we've called the Tinfoil Hack conspiracy theory, 51 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 3: but it's a little bit less of that than it 52 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 3: was that because the Board of Governors has the power 53 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 3: over the FED presidents, they can dismiss them at will. 54 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 3: That maybe Trump could take control of the entire FOMC, 55 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 3: But that would be very difficult to do because I 56 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 3: don't think Chris Waller and maybe not Mickey Bowmen would 57 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 3: even go. 58 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 5: Along with that. 59 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 3: So Trump just getting a majority on the board doesn't 60 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 3: mean a significant change in policy. Also, I think our 61 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 3: friends down on Wall Street would have a conniption fit 62 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 3: over something like that, and that might cause the President 63 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 3: to back off. What he may get out of it 64 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 3: is more people on the board who are more inclined 65 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 3: to lower interest rates, but once you get in there, 66 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 3: you are very afraid of inflation, and I think that 67 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 3: culture will hold for a while. 68 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 4: Mike, or there are other members on the board beyond 69 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 4: Mickey and Chris Waller that you think potentially could also 70 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 4: be a descent voter at that's September decision. 71 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 3: I don't think we'll have any other descents unless you 72 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: get a Steve Myron world record confirmation from the Senate 73 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 3: and get him in there by September seventeenth. Pretty much 74 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 3: what we've heard from everybody is even the ones who 75 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 3: are looking to the possibility of September based on the data, 76 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: if the data suggests that there's no cut in the 77 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 3: offing because inflation is rising, those people aren't going to dissent. 78 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 3: They may withhold votes, they may vote with the group, 79 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 3: but anticipate that they will cut rates in the future. 80 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 3: But I don't think we'll get more than two descents 81 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 3: unless Myron is added to the cast. 82 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 2: Mike, what's the latest scuttle butt out there in Jackson 83 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 2: Hall about President Trump's campaign to ask for a Reserve 84 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 2: Governor Lisa Cook? 85 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 3: Well, there's nothing really new. Overnight. Cook put out her 86 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 3: statement at the end of the Day yesterday saying she 87 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 3: will not be bullied into resigning, and she noted that 88 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 3: she is gathering all the documents necessary. So unless the 89 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 3: President tweets something again, we're all keeping our eyes on 90 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 3: his truth social account. It's probably gets moved off to 91 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 3: the side for a while until we get some more information. 92 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 3: The FA director has gone after Senator Adam Schiff and 93 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: the head of the Attorney General for New York State, 94 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 3: Letitia James, and we haven't heard much about that lately. 95 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 3: The things, you know, the charges are out there. The 96 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 3: Justice Department is either looking into them or not. They 97 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 3: don't comment, and until we get something new, it probably fades. 98 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 2: All right, Mike, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate 99 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 2: it out there. Let us know when there's a Tom 100 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 2: Keene citing. That would be a thing to see, a 101 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: psyche to see. Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent 102 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg, whose. 103 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 104 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 105 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, 106 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloombergs up or watch 107 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 108 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 2: Well, let's get the latest what's happening down in Washington 109 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,559 Speaker 2: at DC. And for that we always turned to Wendy Schiller. 110 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 2: She's a professor Brown University. Wendy, it seems like the 111 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 2: White House is turned its attention at least for the 112 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 2: timing over the last couple of days on the Federal 113 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 2: Reserve with some allegations against Governor Lisa cookel what do 114 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 2: you think is going on here? 115 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think this is just part of 116 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 7: Trump's sustained attack on the Federal Reserve and trying to 117 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 7: sort of exert more executive and direct power over the 118 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 7: Federal Reserve. And in some ways for pr purposes, He's 119 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 7: got the advantage because I think most Americans don't know 120 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 7: the structure of the Federal Reserve. They don't know how 121 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 7: it works, they don't know why it exists, they don't 122 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 7: know that it was created by an Act of Congress, 123 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 7: and they don't understand it, and they don't understand why 124 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 7: it is so powerful visa the elected branches of government. 125 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 4: And talk to us about the motivation here, because to 126 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 4: your point, of resignation would create another opening for Trump 127 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 4: to fill the FED board as president because basically piling 128 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 4: on that pressure for the Central Bank to lower rates. 129 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, and it's just curious he's targeting this member and 130 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 7: not any other member. And I think that's sort of 131 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 7: part of the Trump administration strategy. 132 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 8: When they go after people. 133 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 7: They tend to try to pick off the weakest links 134 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 7: in a lot of the organizations that they want to 135 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 7: exert more influence over. You know, he went after Powell, 136 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 7: but it was clear even though he tried that in 137 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 7: general he can't probably can't fire Powell, and that Powell 138 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 7: stood his ground. 139 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 8: But Powell essentially only has a year left. 140 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 7: So I think that's this is part and parcel of 141 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 7: what the Trump agganization does. 142 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 8: And you know, Trump is. 143 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 7: Exercising executive power and people can like it or not 144 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 7: like it. But for twenty twenty five years, Congress has 145 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 7: allowed presidents to do this, Democrat or Republican. It's not 146 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 7: just Trump, it's other presidents as well. So you know, 147 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 7: Congress either has to step up or other branches of 148 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 7: government have to step up and say no, you're you're 149 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 7: overstepping your power. 150 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 8: But so far we haven't seen that. 151 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 2: You know, it leads me to the question I always 152 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 2: ask you, Wendy, and I think we kind of get 153 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 2: the same answer. But is there anybody in Congress that, 154 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,239 Speaker 2: at any point in time cares to stand up against 155 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: President Trump for any of these types of issues? Or 156 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 2: is it just or we passed that well? 157 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 7: I mean, I think if you were, if you're a 158 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 7: remember of Congress and you're in a comment and you're 159 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 7: planning on running for reelection, if you're a Republican, you're 160 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 7: all in on Trump. That's just he's taking over the 161 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 7: Republican parties, and most presidents do try. Obama was a 162 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 7: little bit of an exception. We didn't do as much 163 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 7: in terms of taking over the messaging of the entire 164 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 7: Democratic Party, which is more diverse in general and harder 165 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,719 Speaker 7: to sort of become more uniform. 166 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 8: But Trump has done that. 167 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 7: So you are tagged with Trump, whether you like it 168 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 7: or you're not, as a Republican congressman going to twenty six. 169 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 8: So they're not going to revolt. 170 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 7: But the Democrats have to figure out something other than 171 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 7: we're not Trump because it didn't work for them in 172 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 7: twenty twenty four. And we're going to see in Virginia 173 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 7: and in New Jersey coming up relatively soon. You know 174 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 7: what those meanssages do and how well they play and 175 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 7: if it looks good after November for the Democrats in 176 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 7: those states, and I expect the national Democrats will pick 177 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 7: up on some of that messaging. 178 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 4: So what's the next big thing that you're obviously keeping 179 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 4: a close eye on here when it's related to these 180 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 4: types of issues and how this plays out on a 181 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 4: timetable basis? 182 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 8: Government shutdown? 183 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 7: I mean, you know, I think I said on this show, 184 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 7: you know, the election has already started for twenty twenty six. 185 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 8: We know that with the redistricting efforts. 186 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 7: And by the way, you know mid ten year redustering 187 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 7: is not new and original. A lot of states did 188 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 7: this in the nineteenth century and always bringing up history, 189 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 7: so it's not unprecedented for a state to decide mid 190 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 7: course that they want to redistrict. So we'll see what 191 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 7: the courts do with that, especially the Supreme Court. But 192 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 7: really I'm looking at the budget shutdown about the government, right, 193 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 7: we got to go through this all over again. Do 194 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 7: we appropriate what do the Democrats want, what do the 195 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 7: Republicans want? 196 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 8: You know, what does Trump want? And then the government. 197 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 7: Still has to get US budget done by September thirtieth 198 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 7: October first the fiscal year, and we'll have to see 199 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 7: if they can do it keep the government running. And 200 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,239 Speaker 7: if there's a shutdown fight, then that's when the Democrats 201 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 7: have an opportunity, as Clinton did against Gingridge, to make 202 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 7: their points about the way the Trump administration is operating. 203 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 8: So we'll have to see which side blinks on the shutdown. 204 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 2: Question real quickly. Ukraine Russia, what's the next steps here? 205 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 2: From your perspective, well, I mean, you. 206 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 8: Know, you have to say to yourself. 207 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 7: Trump gave Putin more time to do more damage in Ukraine, 208 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 7: which puts more pressure on Zelenski to give some territory 209 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 7: up for peace. 210 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 8: And that's what Trump did. I don't think it's indefinite. 211 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 7: I don't think Trump will just sit by and wait 212 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 7: indefinitely for Putin to do, you know, destroy the country. 213 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 7: But certainly he gave Putin the opportunity to go in 214 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 7: and keep pounding, and that will continue to exert pressure 215 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 7: on Zelenski if he wants to save Ukrainian lives, And 216 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 7: you know, is there an opening for a compromise. I 217 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 7: think the President is still committed to that he wants 218 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 7: to be the guy who ends this war. 219 00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 2: All right, Wendy, thank you so much. We appreciate that. 220 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 2: Wendy Shoulder for us are at Brown University. Stay with us. 221 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 222 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 223 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 224 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 225 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 226 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 2: Let's check out with the next guest we always love 227 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 2: to speak with to get sense of kind of where 228 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 2: these markets going, where valuation may be, how we should 229 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 2: be thinking about both equities and fixed income market. And 230 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:42,320 Speaker 2: that's Karen Murphy. She's a CIO at Kestra Investment Management. Caro, 231 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 2: we've had just a phenomenally crazy ride so far here 232 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: to date in equities with that twenty percent sell off 233 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 2: in April. Then, boy, that was quick on the way down, 234 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: but it was even quicker on the way back up here. 235 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 2: What are you telling your clients here as they think 236 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 2: about equity markets going forward? 237 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 5: First of all, I. 238 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,719 Speaker 9: Would agree with you that it's been a wild ride 239 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 9: in the markets this year and We've described Q two 240 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 9: as the Rip van Winkle quarter, where if you looked 241 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 9: at your portfolio in the beginning of the quarter and 242 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 9: then went to sleep and woke up at the end 243 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 9: of the quarter and looked at your values, you would 244 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 9: have been like great. 245 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 5: Great, and pat yourself on the back. 246 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 9: But we all know that it didn't feel like that 247 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 9: as we went through it, and interestingly, like after this 248 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 9: massive rally, we have many of the same risks that 249 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 9: we started the year with, namely, you suggested a very 250 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 9: high valuations really concentrated markets. But what we've seen, especially 251 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 9: coming out of second quarter earnings, is that many of 252 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 9: those companies continue to deliver and that's really been able 253 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 9: to fuel this momentum. Now it sort of makes us 254 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 9: a bit more cautious going forward because of the very, 255 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 9: very high expectations in these names, But for now, signs 256 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 9: are looking pretty good. 257 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 5: Pretty good. 258 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, those guidance momentum scores from Bluebird Intelligence for the 259 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 4: current third quarter for companies that are putting out quarterly guidance, 260 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 4: it's a basically the heist in a year and second 261 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 4: highest in a couple of years. There, So that look 262 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 4: a little better than it was coming into this year. 263 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 4: I'm kind of wondering your thoughts on when it comes 264 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 4: to a lot of people arguing about the run we've 265 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 4: seen since April and the mag seven. I mean, you 266 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 4: have stocks like Apple, which is still down close to 267 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 4: ten percent this year, it's obviously little bit more than 268 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 4: thirty percent since those April lows, but you have certain 269 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 4: big names that you weren't necessarily part. 270 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:21,319 Speaker 5: Of all of the rally this year. 271 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 4: I mean, how could people argue about anything being bubbly 272 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 4: when some of these big tech naus weren't necessarily all 273 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 4: a part of that. 274 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think you're right. 275 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 9: The market has distinguished, right, So in some ways we've 276 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 9: seen what we would call an everything rally coming off 277 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 9: the bottom, and that you've had really wide range of 278 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 9: types of stocks that have been rallying. But as you suggested, 279 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 9: some of the big winners of the last couple of 280 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 9: years haven't participated in the same way. 281 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 5: So I think in. 282 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 9: General what you're seeing is the market is reward like 283 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 9: going back taking risk off tarifs aren't going to be 284 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 9: as punitive as we thought. That kind of raises everything. 285 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 9: But then the clear winners are those who are able 286 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 9: to demonstrate a benefit from AI and that's you start 287 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 9: to see some differentiation. 288 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 2: Is it valuation concerned for you here? 289 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, but it has been for a long time 290 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 9: and it doesn't mean that the market's going to turn down. 291 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 5: So what it is is we're constantly looking. 292 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 9: For is there some sign that there's going to be 293 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 9: a chink in the armor of this like forward earnings picture, 294 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 9: and so far the momentum is pretty much up as 295 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 9: those like all that cap X mending that's being put 296 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 9: to work now. As that starts to come do in 297 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 9: the next year or so, I think that's when you 298 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 9: start to have the market take a much harder look 299 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 9: and saying, are we actually getting returns on all this 300 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 9: cap X? But for now, there's so much money going 301 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 9: into this, we need to give it time to actually 302 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 9: show those returns. So I think the market can actually 303 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 9: handle these high valuations for some time. 304 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 2: We are speaking with Kara Murphy, CIO Kestra Investment Management 305 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 2: KRA as a recovering equity analyst. Earnings matter to me, 306 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 2: and I think Corporate America is doing a great job, 307 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: better than expected. Talk to us about kind of what 308 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 2: your takeaway was for second quarter earnings that we just 309 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: finished up and kind of maybe the outlook. 310 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, I am also a recovering equity analyst, so I 311 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 9: know exactly what you're talking about. And they think when 312 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 9: we look at the earnings reports that are coming out 313 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 9: of the second quarter, they're quite different than what we're 314 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 9: hearing on like Main Street, right, So particular, as we 315 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 9: look at the largest companies, we had I think earnings 316 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 9: expectations bottom for the second quarter around five percent. 317 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 5: They came in around twelve percent, so more than. 318 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 9: Double kind of where they had bottomed at the worst 319 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 9: of the tariff fares. And these companies are also doing 320 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 9: it on better revenues, better margins, So we're seeing really 321 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 9: really good reports out of these. But then that stands 322 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 9: and start contrast to some things like we're hearing about, 323 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 9: you know, more cautious consumer spending, more worries about a 324 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 9: title labor market, and of course a housing market that 325 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 9: remains quite frozen, partly because of affordability. 326 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 5: So it's very much a sort of like tale of 327 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 5: two cities. 328 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 9: But if you're a large company today, chances are your 329 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 9: earnings picture looks pretty good. 330 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 4: So, Kara, what companies are you telling investors from a 331 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 4: stockbas is to buy or sell at this point. 332 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 5: So we've been calling twenty twenty five the Year. 333 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 9: Of the diversified portfolio, which is not terribly sexy. But 334 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 9: what we've seen is that for the first time in 335 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 9: quite a while, even with the mag seven doing really 336 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 9: well and having this great rally, owning things outside of 337 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 9: those that area has actually. 338 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 5: Been beneficial to your portfolio. 339 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 9: So, for instance, like non US stocks, it's been years 340 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 9: that the S and P five hundred has sort of 341 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 9: trounced non US stocks. Now so far this year we're 342 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 9: seeing much much better goes outside the US. 343 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 5: And how much is of a week dollar, right? 344 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 4: I was going to say, Also, when you have indexes 345 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 4: like the S and P five hundred coming off of 346 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 4: two back to back years of twenty percent gains, I mean, 347 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 4: even though it's up you know, eight nine percent this year, 348 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 4: is it just kind of just a smaller cooling off 349 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 4: period before potentially more gains from here? 350 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 5: I mean, I think that would be very healthy, right. 351 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 9: We can't put up twenty five percent gains every year, 352 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 9: And even given that, as you suggested, like the returns 353 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 9: that we've had in the S and P five hundred 354 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 9: this year are. 355 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 5: Still pretty good. 356 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 9: But I think what happens is that when you have 357 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 9: a single asset class like the S and P five 358 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 9: hundred doing so well year after year, a lot of 359 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 9: investors then sort of forget that they need to have 360 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 9: exposure elsewhere. And so often when we talk with investors 361 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 9: is like, remember these sort of like long term approaches 362 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 9: to investing where you want to be able to have 363 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 9: exposure some of these areas outside the world. 364 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 2: Fixed income, what's the play here, stick when the belly 365 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: of the treasury curve or takes some. 366 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 5: Credit risk, a little bit of both. 367 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 9: So when we look at, for instance, like high yield, 368 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 9: if you go pretty far out on the credit curve, 369 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,239 Speaker 9: I think there we would have like a little bit 370 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 9: of concern only because you're not being paid to take 371 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 9: that much risk. Right, credit spreads are really really tight. 372 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 9: When we look at corporate credit, that's where we have 373 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 9: some really nice absolute yields. Yes, like you know, spreads 374 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 9: are tight, but it still feels very comfortable, and we 375 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 9: don't see a lot of stress within corporates. So I think, 376 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 9: you know, we're willing to take some credit risk. And 377 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 9: then as you suggested, like staying within the belly of 378 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 9: the curve, so and sort of stay out of some 379 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 9: of the volatility at the very long end of the curve, 380 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 9: and then you can find some really good absolute yields 381 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 9: there as well. 382 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 2: Cara, thanks so much for joining us. We always appreciate 383 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: getting a few minutes of your time. Caraen Murphy. She's 384 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 2: the CIO of Kestra Investment Management, a lot of experience 385 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: in the investment game. We always appreciate talking to Carolyn. 386 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 2: Stay with us. 387 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 388 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 389 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 390 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 391 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 392 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal newspapers. 393 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 2: But Lisa the best, Lisa, what do you have for 394 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 2: us today? 395 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 5: Okay? 396 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 10: This is actually a look into the struggles that older 397 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 10: Americans are having because their savings accounts are starting to deplete. 398 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 10: So they're like, how are are going to make money 399 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 10: when I'm win my eighties? Okay, So Business Insider they 400 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 10: spoke with one couple who are in the eighties. 401 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 2: They say they only have. 402 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 10: About twenty thousand dollars left in their savings. They only 403 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 10: get about two thousand dollars a month in Social Security. 404 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 10: It's not enough to cover expenses. They have a roof 405 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 10: repair that they need. So they've both been looking for work. 406 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 10: You know, the husband is a truck driver, he was 407 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 10: a truck divery. He's eighty two. He can't get hired 408 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 10: for the long haul jobs and no one wants to 409 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 10: hire him for the short haul jobs. And then his 410 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 10: wife is eighty five, so she's having a similar issue 411 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,479 Speaker 10: trying to find work. So basically they spoke with a 412 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 10: whole bunch of older Americans to just say, those who 413 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 10: do find it, it's usually you know, part time, retail, caregiving, 414 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 10: nonprofit roles, and they played just above minimum wage. But 415 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 10: it's like this eye opener into the struggles that older 416 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 10: Americans are having. 417 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: Now, I mean, I know it's gonna be more and 418 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 2: more an issue. Yeah, that's why my personal strategies. I'm 419 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 2: never retiring. 420 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 10: You said, Walmart greater right now, Walmart crea. 421 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 2: I can see that exactly, such a friendly blues collared 422 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 2: shirt on I know, I mean, are awesome. Yeah, you 423 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 2: got it. I think that's going to be the story 424 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 2: for a lot of people going forward. 425 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 10: Going and going back to work. Have you guys heard 426 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 10: of this viral ballpark challenge? It's called nine nine nine. 427 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 2: Okay, I have no idea, Okay, so here we go. 428 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 10: It is eating nine hot dogs drinking nine beers throughout 429 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 10: an entire game, nine innings. 430 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 2: Okay, nine nine nine? 431 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 8: Can you do it? Okay? 432 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 10: This has been around actually, but social media, of course, 433 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 10: brought it back. Some are saying it's going to cost 434 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 10: about two hundred and thirty dollars if you add everything up, 435 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 10: you know, to complete the challenge. But it's even going 436 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 10: into other sports like golf. You can do nine beers, 437 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 10: nine club sandwiches, and nine holes. 438 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 5: Okay? Is that more your gym? 439 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 4: A little bit? 440 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 5: Okay? 441 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 10: But the Wall Street Termalmporter gave it a try. It 442 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 10: was a tough start, but they finished it. They actually 443 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 10: got a good deal. Did you know what city field 444 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 10: You can get hot dogs and beers for five dollars 445 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:58,400 Speaker 10: a pop on Tuesdays? 446 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 5: Yes, yes, I heard about this. 447 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 10: I didn't know that, but apparently this is like the thing, 448 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 10: the nine to nine to nine challenge. So next time 449 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 10: you guys go to the ballpark, get ready and go 450 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 10: an empty stomach. 451 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 2: And the writer says, you know, in the aftermath, I 452 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 2: lost the desire to eat for the next two days. 453 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 8: Wow. 454 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,360 Speaker 5: That that sums it up, okay, and last weight. 455 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 10: So back when I was younger, right, we would go 456 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 10: to the Limelight in the city, was right, and it 457 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 10: turned into a nightclub and it was a rave and 458 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 10: you know, you have a couple of cocktails and you 459 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 10: get home like the wee hours of the morning. 460 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 2: Okay. 461 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 10: But apparently that's a little bit too much for gen 462 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 10: z and millennials, okay, so they can't handle it. So 463 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 10: now business inside are saying they're joined. 464 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 8: This new trend. It's Macha raves. 465 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 10: Okay. So the go it's a sober, you know, daytime 466 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 10: clubbing event. 467 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 2: People are on a caffeine high. That's their high. 468 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 10: Okay, still the best music, right, smoke machines, everything, but 469 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 10: they get to be in bed by ten pm because 470 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 10: the party is from four to eight, so they get 471 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 10: to get up and feel refreshed, no hangover. And there 472 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 10: you go. Try Macha and it's just no terrible for 473 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 10: you are it's it's too bitter. 474 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,719 Speaker 4: I have had sweeter versions of it, and it's I 475 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,719 Speaker 4: like that but I'm all about I have to have 476 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 4: so much sugar with it. Even if I have coffee, 477 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 4: I wouldn't even really consider it coffee because I put 478 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 4: so much like the straw cream, and right, I need 479 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 4: to have something really sweet in there or else I'm 480 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 4: just I'm not into it. 481 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 8: Do you do? Would you go out and do the 482 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 8: late night raves jest? 483 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 5: Or would you? 484 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 8: Are you not the good. 485 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 10: I'm not the gen z Court. 486 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 5: I'm in that generation right before it, so we don't really. 487 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 2: Six floor, right we do? 488 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 10: And you have to do like the dirty one where 489 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 10: you mix the coffee with the macha and it's idea 490 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 10: a matcha machine, a matcha machine. It's on tap. You 491 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 10: just pull it back like you're poring a beer. 492 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 5: And I have seen upstairs on the sixth floor. 493 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, I. 494 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 10: Like different recipes sometimes posted out there. It's I'm telling you, Paul, 495 00:22:57,800 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 10: you've got to. 496 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 2: Try it again, all right, I'm again give it another shot. 497 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 2: That's the Newspapers with Lisa Matteo. 498 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 499 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 500 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on bloomberg dot com, 501 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 502 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 503 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal