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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. Growing we're sitting up the

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Speaker 2: cash totop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 4: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate kabary.

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Speaker 2: You wanna puck.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome to another edition of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. Week seventeen NFL Betting Preview. I am

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Speaker 3: your host, Chris Raybond, and on today's show, we'll be

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Speaker 3: breaking down our top six spread bets of week seventeen

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Speaker 3: and the Sunday six pack, and also giving you our

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Speaker 3: favorite total bet, teaser bet, moneyline, parlay pick and survivor

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Speaker 3: pool pick if you have an still be alive in

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Speaker 3: those formats. No Thursday Night Football this week, So we'll

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Speaker 3: jump right in to the six pack. But before we

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Speaker 3: get into that, just a reminder to download the free

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Speaker 3: Action Network app for real time odds, box scores and

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Speaker 3: the capability to track every bet that you make. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's get right into it. Our Sunday six.

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Speaker 2: Pack Thursday for Action.

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Speaker 4: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, I am joined as always by the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister of degenerate Nation. I got stucky stuck. Happy holidays.

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Speaker 3: How is your week sixteen and what you got going

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Speaker 3: on for the holidays?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Happy holidays everyone. I just got back from Cleveland,

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Speaker 2: so I actually had a second I had a second

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Speaker 2: losing weekend in the NFL. I think I had one

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Speaker 2: in the first fourteen weeks and two in the last two.

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Speaker 2: So it's time to pick it up here, humble brag

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Speaker 2: and And I just got back from Cleveland, and I

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Speaker 2: went there to see how Ravens clinch the one seed

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Speaker 2: on the Browns. I would bet them again. I mean

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Speaker 2: incompetence and the difference in how well those teams are

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Speaker 2: coaches crazy. But look, it's only a third time all

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Speaker 2: year the Ravens have been held scoreless in the first quarter,

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Speaker 2: and that's what you have to do. And then you

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Speaker 2: just can't be dumb like the Browns. But they were

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Speaker 2: in that game. It's going to help some of these

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Speaker 2: teams that have seen the Ravens twice. We'll get into

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Speaker 2: that later. There's gonna be some games on the board

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Speaker 2: that you're like, oh, but there's also a lot of

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Speaker 2: other games that bring in some new fascinating angles for

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Speaker 2: Week seventeen, which we'll get into here shortly.

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Speaker 3: As far as the spreads, I gotta say, I know

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Speaker 3: you didn't like I think it was what last week

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Speaker 3: or the week before the card like, I don't love

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Speaker 3: this one. I like the totals a lot more. We

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Speaker 3: are tied up, by the way in our little contest

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Speaker 3: forty eight. All that means we're forty eight to eighty

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Speaker 3: through sixteen weeks. That's pretty good hit rate for both

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Speaker 3: of us. So, yeah, you got first pick. Let's get

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Speaker 3: into it.

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Speaker 2: What did I say at the beginning of the year

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Speaker 2: and throughout the year, I want three points a week,

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Speaker 2: so my goal was forty eight. Here we are, but

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Speaker 2: we're tied. So this will We're gonna come up with

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Speaker 2: our format for the playoffs. This isn't the final week,

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Speaker 2: but it's gonna be going into a puz. It's gonna

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Speaker 2: be a close race no matter what. It's been awesome

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Speaker 2: so far. Let's keep up this rate for my first pick.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a piece out on this on the

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Speaker 2: Action ork dot Com action app. I'm gonna have examples

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Speaker 2: of this going back twenty years. It's something that I've

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Speaker 2: tracked manually for twenty years, and then I had to

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Speaker 2: go back manually and track it further back ten more years.

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Speaker 2: Because what I'm talking about here is teams that have

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Speaker 2: nothing to play for in Week seventeen playing against teams

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Speaker 2: that have to win to get in. And if you

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Speaker 2: go back Week sixteen and seventeen the past thirty years,

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Speaker 2: and there's no way to do this in a database.

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Speaker 2: You can't say, all right, does this team what is

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Speaker 2: it a must win? You have to go back and

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Speaker 2: then look at the playoffs standings that year, and once

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Speaker 2: you get into the actual process of doing it each year,

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Speaker 2: you can just update a database, which I do, but

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Speaker 2: I had to go back in like the nineties and

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Speaker 2: was reading newspaper snippets and seeing tibreaker scenarios, and it's

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Speaker 2: a lot harder to do Now. Now you have articles

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Speaker 2: like on actionework dot Com and ESPN, you can find

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Speaker 2: for two thousand and five one that'll just say Week

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Speaker 2: seventeen playoff scenarios, But like nineteen ninety eight it was

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Speaker 2: it's not that easy to find anyway. You go back

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Speaker 2: just the two thousand and three teams that are playing

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Speaker 2: for nothing in Week seventeen are twenty one and thirteen

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Speaker 2: against the spread against teams that are playing a must

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Speaker 2: win scenario to get in their playoffs. Now, not must

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Speaker 2: win to improve their seeding, not win to you know,

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Speaker 2: improve their division.

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Speaker 4: They either could or will drop out of the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: You know. So some of the games that qualify this weekend.

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Speaker 2: The Cowboys, they lose, they're out. The Eagles, if they lose,

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Speaker 2: they potentially could be out. You know, you have the

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Speaker 2: Steelers and the Titans. Those are your four and the

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Speaker 2: Raiders also qualify as well. Those are the five teams

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Speaker 2: that need to win and if they don't win, they

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Speaker 2: need help, right so they're in must win playoff to

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Speaker 2: get into the playoff scenarios. Focus just on favorites of

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Speaker 2: more than a field goal, the teams that must win

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Speaker 2: against he's playing for nothing over that same timeframe seven

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Speaker 2: and nineteen against the spread. That's twenty seven percent. Now,

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Speaker 2: if you're not into that big sample size, you can

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Speaker 2: go back with that, and these are just week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: You can go back week sixteen and week seventeen. In

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Speaker 2: this scenario, back to nineteen ninety and the teams that

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Speaker 2: are playing for nothing right around sixty sixty one percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread. Why is that, Well, number one, the

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Speaker 2: line is and it's not always, but it's generally going

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Speaker 2: to be inflated in the market because every single person says,

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Speaker 2: this team has to win, and they're playing the shitty

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Speaker 2: team that's playing for nothing, so you have a lot

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Speaker 2: more money coming into this team. Also, a team that

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Speaker 2: has playing for nothing is not a playoff team. Probably

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Speaker 2: a bad team probably started trending in the wrong direction

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Speaker 2: towards the end of the season. Well, now you know,

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Speaker 2: and that might have that's some of that could be motivational.

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Speaker 2: And but weeks now you get a week seventeen game

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Speaker 2: against the team that you can keep out of the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, you're okay, let's we care again.

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Speaker 4: This is basically your super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: You can also play a lot looser, whereas these teams

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Speaker 2: that are playing to get intend to play tight not

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Speaker 2: to lose. They're like, hey, we're the better team, and

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Speaker 2: you see them come out and they get ultra conservative

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Speaker 2: and tight, whereas you see these other teams they'll take

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Speaker 2: more shots and they'll just play a loose to Brandon

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Speaker 2: Football throw out, new looks new wrinkles like the hasn't seen.

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Speaker 2: They just say, look, this is our super Bowl this season.

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Speaker 2: There's no other tape, doesn't matter what else happens this year.

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Speaker 2: So there's many reasons why it happens. Most importantly, it's

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Speaker 2: because the lines inflated, because everyone in the NFL market says,

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Speaker 2: why am I going to bet the Texans playing for

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Speaker 2: nothing against the Titans who need to play to get in.

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Speaker 2: Last year Week seventeen, Raven's playing the Browns, need to

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Speaker 2: win to get in at home, lank six went by two, three,

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Speaker 2: two or three. Heers playing the Bengals laying fourteen and

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Speaker 2: a half at home. You need to win to get

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Speaker 2: in one by two, you know. So there's countless examples

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Speaker 2: of third string quarterbacks beating on teams that are dead,

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Speaker 2: ruining seasons. You see it every single year. It's one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite parts about betting Week seventeen with that

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Speaker 2: of mine, that's going to be one of my main

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Speaker 2: trend for this podcast on my part. So with that

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Speaker 2: in mind, my first pick is the Giants plus four

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Speaker 2: and a half at home. I make this around three,

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Speaker 2: so I think you'll get an extra point and a

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Speaker 2: half or so I'm waiting to see if I can

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Speaker 2: get a five, seeing where this market goes. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this line was what nine a couple weeks ago in

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Speaker 2: Philly when Eli Manning's first start, and you know, take

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Speaker 2: some home field and other situational factors, this lunch should

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Speaker 2: be a right around three. Well, what you have to

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Speaker 2: keep in mind is in that game, zach Ertz dominated, dominated,

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns, was dominant.

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Speaker 4: They are probably going to be without him. They signed Richard.

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Speaker 2: Rodgers off, you know, which means that they're worried about

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Speaker 2: him playing. They still this Eagles team I didn't learn

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Speaker 2: much about. They still can't cover downfield and apparently Dak

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Speaker 2: shoulder was hurved. Becau Dallas didn't try to throw down

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Speaker 2: field for some reason. I don't know why. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming that's the reason why. But their corners are

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Speaker 2: still vulnerable. They still have no weapons on the outside.

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Speaker 2: This is the Giant Super Bowl Division rival up in

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Speaker 2: New York. Knock Philly out. I mean, you're this is

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Speaker 2: a team that just look, the Eagles beat the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: No one wanted a part of the Eagles last week.

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Speaker 2: Now everyone wants a part of the Eagles this week.

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Speaker 2: This is still the same Eagles team that lost to

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins, that needed to come back and win in

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Speaker 2: overtime at home against the Giants. This team is not

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Speaker 2: that good people. They don't have weapons on the outside.

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Speaker 2: It's mainly their defense. It's like their trenches and you know,

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Speaker 2: not that they don't have ERTs their best player on offense.

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Speaker 2: So the four and a half is too many here.

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Speaker 2: I think the Giants win this game, to be honest,

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Speaker 2: and it'll come down to the Cowboys are gonna steak

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Speaker 2: into the playoff.

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Speaker 4: That's you're fitting into the nfcas By the way, I mean, you.

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Speaker 3: Just made me want to change one of my picks

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Speaker 3: because that's a really good point. And yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: the Giants have receivers to actually exploit, you know, down

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Speaker 3: the field. I mean they have Shepherd Tate uh and Swayton.

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Speaker 3: I know he was kind of in and out of

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Speaker 3: that game last week, but I think he's he should

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Speaker 3: be fine. Latimer obviously stepped up. But the Giants have

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Speaker 3: some guys, you know, when they're healthy at receiver, even

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Speaker 3: without Evan Ingram uh that's a pretty good trio of

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Speaker 3: receivers and a pretty productive fourth receiver uh In Latimer.

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Speaker 4: So, yeah, two bomb touchdowns the first time they played

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Speaker 4: in Philly, right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and then he had he he had like two

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Speaker 3: targets and no catch his last game. But he I

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Speaker 3: think he spent this portion of that game on the

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Speaker 3: sideline and he was back in weight and they targeted him,

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Speaker 3: I think on the play or two before they won

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Speaker 3: the game to h to Kyden Smith with the touchdown.

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Speaker 3: So he should be fine and he's yeah, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: be the key for them. But I think people underestimate,

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Speaker 3: you know, a guy like Sterling Shepherd, who everyone's kind

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Speaker 3: of you know, joking on the Giants. Ah, you got

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Speaker 3: like three thought receivers. Well, you know, Shepherd's been playing

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Speaker 3: on the outside a lot more and playing well. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm with you. I think it's gonna be a tough

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Speaker 3: game for the Eagles, and they keep losing key guys

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Speaker 3: on offense, and at some point you just have to wonder,

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Speaker 3: you know, and it's already pretty much caught up for them.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they have no explosiveness. They're lucky that a

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Speaker 3: guy like Greg Ward, you know, has been able to

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Speaker 3: step up and give them four or five catches and

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Speaker 3: take you know, seven eight targets a game and make them,

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Speaker 3: you know, weak average productiveness, or they would kind of

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Speaker 3: be sunk. They're lucky they have a number two tight

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Speaker 3: end that's as good as most teams Number one in

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Speaker 3: Dallas Goddard, or they'd really be sunk. So yeah, look,

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Speaker 3: by the.

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Speaker 2: Way, if you're looking into NFL futures and we talk

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Speaker 2: about them, I don't believe in this Eagles secondary, which

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Speaker 2: is ultimately what I think will be their downfall. But

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Speaker 2: they have the offensive line, they have the defensive line,

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Speaker 2: they had the quarterback, the tight end. Sanders is coming along,

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Speaker 2: and if you believe in them based on matchups, to

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Speaker 2: get to the second round, and and then you get

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Speaker 2: the Shawn Jackson potentially back. Wad is one of those

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Speaker 2: guys on the defensive in the AFC. But getting a

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Speaker 2: player back of DeShawn Jackson's caliber, and it's not that

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Speaker 2: he's the best receiver in the NFL, it's how important

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Speaker 2: he would be to opening up everything else in that

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Speaker 2: offense and giving them a deep threat. But they don't

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Speaker 2: have that right now. It's vertically challenged, but it's some

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Speaker 2: to think about. I mean, it's going to be their

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Speaker 2: second playoff game. They have to get there. They'd have

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Speaker 2: to win this weekend too to get in. But if

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Speaker 2: they get in and they win a game and then

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Speaker 2: get him back and he comes in and he's able

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Speaker 2: to open up their passing game vertically, which will open

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Speaker 2: it up underneath and to those tight ends, it's an

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Speaker 2: interesting addition. But right now that offense is just it is.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to watch, and that didn't nothing about last

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Speaker 2: week change my mind in that sense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a struggle for the Eagles, all right.

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Speaker 3: For my first pick, I am going with the New

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Speaker 3: York Jets. They're one and a half point underdogs against

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Speaker 3: the Bills, team that's locked in to the five seed.

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Speaker 3: Looks like they're going to play their starters for some

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Speaker 3: undet amount of time. This is a game number one.

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Speaker 3: It's not really a road game for the Jets, so

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Speaker 3: I don't think you have to necessarily knock off the

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Speaker 3: max for home field advantage here, so you're still getting

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Speaker 3: a point and a half, you know, in a low

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Speaker 3: scoring game. The total in this game is hovering around

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Speaker 3: thirty six thirty seven. This is a game where if

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Speaker 3: the Bills are playing their starters for three quarters or

258
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Speaker 3: a half in a low scoring game like this, I

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Speaker 3: think anything can happen. I think it kind of turns

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Speaker 3: into one of those games like last week with Jet Steelers.

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Speaker 3: Granted the Jets were at home for that one, but

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Speaker 3: Jets still have a decently good run defense, even with

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Speaker 3: some injuries and.

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Speaker 2: Adam which is big.

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Speaker 3: You saw, yeah, right right, so you know, you know

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Speaker 3: they have some key guys back on defense, a defense

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Speaker 3: that was it was improving over the second half. Granted

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Speaker 3: they had a couple of you know, they got blown

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Speaker 3: out by Baltimore, but a defense that wasn't proving got

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Speaker 3: a little better in the secondary when some guys got

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Speaker 3: benched and whatnot, Tremaine Johnson being at the top of

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Speaker 3: that list. So I like the Jets in this spot

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Speaker 3: is short dogs. I think that they can. They have

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Speaker 3: a really solid chance of winning a close, wow scoring

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Speaker 3: game against Buffalo. Le'Veon Bell should get going. The Bills

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Speaker 3: have been with a weaker on run defense. We'll see

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Speaker 3: who they rest, if they rest anyone like Edmunds or

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Speaker 3: somebody like that. Obviously that would be big if they rested.

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Speaker 3: If Tradavius White was out for any portion of that

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Speaker 3: game for the purposes of Robbie Anderson to get going,

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Speaker 3: who's really come on lately as well. And then Jamison

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Speaker 3: Crowder was a guy who had what was it seventeen

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Speaker 3: catches or something like that in the first matchup, so

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Speaker 3: one point loss for the Jets I believe it was

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Speaker 3: in that first game or so. This is one where, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just think the Jets should be able to keep

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Speaker 3: it close. And it's kind of a coin flip game

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Speaker 3: given the uncertainty. Bills opened as four and a half

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Speaker 3: point favorite, so the line went down, so I probably

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Speaker 3: anticipated and closing it like Bills by one. So happy

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Speaker 3: to get it here at point and a half. Again,

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Speaker 3: don't love the slate in general, but I do think

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Speaker 3: this is more of a coin flip and people realize.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you have a big motivational mismatch here.

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Speaker 2: It's a team, you know, that's a Jets team that's

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Speaker 2: playing their division rival was a playoff team ten and

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Speaker 2: five who came back and beat them in week one.

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Speaker 2: You heard some interviews about a lot of the players

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Speaker 2: mentioning that, including Jamal Adams. Well, whereas Buffalo they have

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Speaker 2: no care for this game at all and they're pretty

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Speaker 2: much in the AFC it's Ravens locked at one. If

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Speaker 2: the Patriots win against the Dolphins, which you can presume

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Speaker 2: at home, they're number two, the Chiefs win, you know,

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Speaker 2: they played the Chargers, which is not as safe as

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Speaker 2: Patriots over Dolphins, but pretty safe to assume they're the three.

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Speaker 2: And that means that Texans would be the four. So

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Speaker 2: the Bills can really sit here this week and say

308
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Speaker 2: it was a pretty good shot. We're going to play

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Speaker 2: the Texans next week, so let's spend some time looking

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Speaker 2: at some Texans film and game planning for that game

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Speaker 2: instead of worrying about this meaningless Jets game. Sean McDermott,

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Speaker 2: you know, and that staff, they're intelligent and a very

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Speaker 2: good staff that I trust that they would do that.

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Speaker 2: And they've come out and said our all of our

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Speaker 2: starters are going to play, including Josh Allen, but they're

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Speaker 2: going to come out at some point so where no

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Speaker 2: matter what, that will help the Jets.

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Speaker 4: What I'm hoping for here, I don't know if I

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Speaker 4: would if I'm necessarily.

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Speaker 2: Going to get in pregame, but if I don't, I

321
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Speaker 2: am hoping that the Bills, you know, Josh Allen, they

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Speaker 2: get the ball and they go down and they go

323
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Speaker 2: up seven to nothing, and I know that eventually their

324
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Speaker 2: starters are going to come out and I can grab

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Speaker 2: them live all right. For my second pick, I am

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Speaker 2: going with the Houston Texans. Now, this is a pregame podcast.

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Speaker 2: We're Tony our best bets that we like pregame. I

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Speaker 2: grabbed this plus six when it came out and it

329
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Speaker 2: was announced that Texans were going to play their starters,

330
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Speaker 2: it came down to about three and a half. Now

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Speaker 2: I grabed six. I still like it at three and

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Speaker 2: a half. Taking three and a half here for the contest.

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Speaker 2: And if you go back, a lot of people are saying,

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Speaker 2: why does Bill O'Brien, And I'm not a fan of

335
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Speaker 2: their stat but why does he say? Why are they

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Speaker 2: going to play their starters? Well, number one, you have

337
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 2: to at least play them to start because the seating

338
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,120
Speaker 2: is still in flux, if you know. And this is

339
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Speaker 2: this is why the scheduling is so awful. This way,

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Speaker 2: if the Chiefs were to lose, but the Chiefs play

341
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Speaker 2: at one and they play at four, so there's a

342
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Speaker 2: chance that if the Chiefs lose at one, then the

343
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Speaker 2: Texans are playing for the three seed and the importance

344
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Speaker 2: of the three seed is that you avoid the Ravens

345
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Speaker 2: until potentially the AFC Championship game, and the Texans can

346
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Speaker 2: play you know, a Patriots team in the divisional round

347
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Speaker 2: that they beat handily instead of a raven scene that

348
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 2: beat them. I don't know, forty five something around that,

349
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Speaker 2: So that would be an incentive. So they would play,

350
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Speaker 2: and they would play. Their starter is probably the entire

351
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Speaker 2: game if that happens. If the Chiefs lose. Now the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs don't, I still trust that O'Brien will start as starters.

353
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Speaker 2: The reason of that. He's a Belichick guy, so he's

354
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Speaker 2: from the Belichick tree, and Belichick doesn't believe in resting

355
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Speaker 2: starters week seventeen, even when they have everything locked up.

356
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Speaker 2: But he's done that in the past. Now, you know,

357
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Speaker 2: if it's back and forth, I could see O'Brien trying

358
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Speaker 2: to play to win. I don't agree with it, especially

359
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Speaker 2: with Watson banged up. You know, he's his ankle isn't

360
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 2: great right now, and your offensive line has questions, so

361
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Speaker 2: I'm getting out of your healthal But that's not his philosophy.

362
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Speaker 2: That's why he came out and said it's more of

363
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Speaker 2: a Belichick thing that he's emulating. So but if I do,

364
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Speaker 2: if they do get a big lead, I might take

365
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Speaker 2: a piece of this off in the anticipation that the

366
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Speaker 2: starters probably will come out, especially at the Chiefs one

367
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Speaker 2: at one o'clock. So these are some things to consider.

368
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Speaker 2: But you know, the Texans, they were plus three at

369
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Speaker 2: you know, they were plus three at Tennessee through the week.

370
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Speaker 4: Now you're catching them over a field goal at home and.

371
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Speaker 2: All the pressures on Tennessee. It's winning in and we

372
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Speaker 2: see it every single year. Winning in teams just come

373
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Speaker 2: out and flop. And one thing that just to point out,

374
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Speaker 2: there's you know, I'm going to have this in our

375
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 2: rite up. This this special team's advantage in this game

376
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: is pretty shocking and it cost the Titans the game

377
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Speaker 2: against Houston. They lost by a field goal. They had

378
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Speaker 2: a field goal blocked. They're special teams. If you just

379
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,720
Speaker 2: look Deboad, the Titans are like twenty eighth, they're trending down,

380
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Speaker 2: they're on their fourth kicker, fourth kicker, they're eight of

381
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Speaker 2: twenty two from field goals in the year.

382
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Speaker 3: Like I have like like so I have a model,

383
00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 3: you know, obviously doing fantasy for kickers, and it essentially

384
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Speaker 3: looks at like what a kicker's expected production would be

385
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,159
Speaker 3: versus what his actual production would be and gives kind

386
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 3: of a number like one, like a ninety two is

387
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,000
Speaker 3: is like about even, and then like you know, over

388
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 3: ninety two into the hundreds. You know, essentially you multiply

389
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,480
Speaker 3: his expected points by that. And and the Titans kicker,

390
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 3: every kicker they've had, has been like the lowest one

391
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,640
Speaker 3: in my model, like down into like the seventies. So essentially,

392
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 3: like however, many field goals plus extra points you're expecting

393
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 3: to score, and that's with you know, in fantasy you

394
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,200
Speaker 3: get added points for like you know, forty yard fifty

395
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 3: yard field goals. They still get in the seventies like

396
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,479
Speaker 3: percentage wise of those points. So they're like, it's just

397
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 3: they're bad.

398
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Speaker 2: But give me the Texans catch it over a field

399
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 2: goal here, and I also love a shot to maybe

400
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 2: buy that out of this if.

401
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,080
Speaker 4: The Texans do get a lead. So give me the

402
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 4: Texans it over a field goal.

403
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 3: It's it's the right play on paper. It does make

404
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 3: me kind of nervous, just because Bill Ryan's teams sometimes

405
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,160
Speaker 3: don't even show up when they have a full motivation

406
00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:01,200
Speaker 3: show up when they don't, right, Yes, all right, So

407
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Speaker 3: for my second pick, I guess it is a team

408
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:05,879
Speaker 3: that has nothing to play for against a team that

409
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 3: does have something to play for. They are a favorite

410
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,679
Speaker 3: though so not quite adhering to your Egles trend, but

411
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 3: going Broncos three and a half favorites over the open

412
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 3: Raiders here.

413
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 4: If they win, the Raiders have a shot there the playoffs.

414
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Speaker 2: If O'Brien does start as starters and the Ravens beat

415
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,920
Speaker 2: the Steelers, which could happen, we'll get to that game

416
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: and the Raiders win and the Colts beat the Jags.

417
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 2: None of that is crazy. The Raiders are in the playoffs,

418
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 2: so they are playing. This is a must win for them,

419
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: So this game does fit the criteria.

420
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Speaker 3: Right and yeah, and so first of all, it's like

421
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Speaker 3: the Raiders beat the Chargers in La big whooped dee doo?

422
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 3: Who doesn't like? Who doesn't? You can never trust the

423
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,400
Speaker 3: Chargers as a teaser when they're a favorite. It's all

424
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Speaker 3: like I'm waiting for your Philip Rivers underdog teaser piece today,

425
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 3: you know, fading the Raiders coming off this win that

426
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 3: was not as surprising as many maybe people think it was.

427
00:18:56,080 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 3: If you fade John Gruden historically versus the sub five

428
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 3: hundred team going back to two thousand and three, you

429
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 3: are twenty seven and nineteen and two against the spread.

430
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Speaker 3: That's fifty nine percent. If you fade the Raiders on

431
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Speaker 3: the road under John Gruden, you're ten and five against

432
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 3: the spread, you know, and these these new iteration of Raiders,

433
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 3: so since he started coaching them last year. And that's

434
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,960
Speaker 3: even with the cover against the Chargers last week, so

435
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 3: still failing to cover in two out of every three.

436
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,400
Speaker 3: If you fade Gruden after a win all time going

437
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,159
Speaker 3: back to two thousand and three in our database, you

438
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 3: are sixty five percent against the spread. And then, of course,

439
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, you have all kind of the factors

440
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 3: working in your favor, with Broncos really having to play for,

441
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 3: the Raiders having everything to play for. They you know, now, Gruden,

442
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,119
Speaker 3: it looked like Josh Jacobs was definitely going to play.

443
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 3: Now they're saying, you know, maybe maybe now we're not

444
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: gonna rush him back. We're gonna play with the best

445
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 3: guys we have. So I don't know if he had

446
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 3: a setback or if that's just you know, them Gruden

447
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 3: being coy or what. But that's also something to my

448
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 3: But uh, you know, I like the Broncos on this one.

449
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 3: I think it's tough to come into Mile High. Wait

450
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 3: in the year, you're you're a team that plays in Cali. Uh,

451
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 3: you know, you're kind of you know, you just picked

452
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 3: up a win against another team that plays in Cali.

453
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 3: Now you're going into Mile High. Totally different kind of game.

454
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 3: Physical Broncos team, team that knows that you have something

455
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 3: at stake, a team that you beat earlier in the

456
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 3: year to start the year that kind of left you

457
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 3: off on like a sour a sour note to start

458
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: the year. So revenge game aspect for the Broncos usually

459
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: like to target the team that didn't cover in the

460
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 3: first meeting in these divisional games as well. So a

461
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 3: lot of factors in favor of the Broncos, and I

462
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 3: just think they're a better team at this point. I

463
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 3: think the Raiders have kind of been out playing there,

464
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: you know, what their true talent level is all season.

465
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: That was the case. I remember earlier at one point

466
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 3: they had a winning record and a negative point differential,

467
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: which is kind of indicative of a team that's doing that.

468
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 3: But right now Bronco's playing solid football with Drew Rock.

469
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 3: You know, he hasn't been horrible. Their defense is still good.

470
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 3: This Raider defense is not good, so I don't think

471
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 3: they'll be They're the kind of team that really can

472
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 3: take advantage of a rookie quarterback and his experience because

473
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 3: they don't get a lot of pressure, and so he's

474
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 3: gonna be able to kind of complete the complete balls

475
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 3: to the Sutton Sean Hamilton that finally showing some life

476
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: after he was just invisible all year. Was supposed to

477
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 3: be a good player for the Broncos, but just invisible

478
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: through two quarterbacks Flacko and Allen now starting to show

479
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,360
Speaker 3: some life. So I think the Bronx will be able

480
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 3: to move the football. On one side, I think the

481
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 3: Raiders will struggle a little bit against that defense and

482
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 3: struggle with the just being on the road. In my

483
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,360
Speaker 3: high So give me the Broncos three and a half

484
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: point favorites.

485
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is still a It's still an

486
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: Oaklan team that went to the Jets and lost thirty

487
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 2: four to three. You know, it's still an Okle team

488
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,239
Speaker 2: that lost forty to nine to the Chiefs forty two

489
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 2: to twenty one to the Titans, blew a lead to

490
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: the Jags. I mean, this is what they've been doing

491
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: at home. Something else to keep in mind is, not

492
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 2: only do you have you know, the Jacobs in and

493
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 2: that's their offense. Their defensive sticks and everyone knows that

494
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: their defense is terrible. Their offense was doing some really

495
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 2: good things that it all started with a really healthy Jacobs.

496
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 2: But now you not only have a fully healthy Jacobs,

497
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 2: you lost Trent Brown, you know, Richie was hurt. So

498
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 2: that offensive line, which was also the key piece of

499
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 2: the offense, it was basically just pound Jacobs set up

500
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: some play actions, some short passes. With a really good

501
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 2: offensive line, you could be an efficient offense that way

502
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 2: when you have a star back. But that's not all

503
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: there now. So yeah, I agree for this contest, you

504
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: get three and a half. It doesn't matter if you

505
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 2: have three. But I'm waiting on three for anyone out there,

506
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 2: so I should probably get a three because again, this

507
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 2: is a situation where as the week goes on, you

508
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 2: start to hear this. You know, these old Raiders can

509
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: get the playoffs of win and you're going to probably

510
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 2: see a lot more Raiders money than Broncos. Money and

511
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: that three should pop eventually, like this line should be

512
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:51,959
Speaker 2: four and a half or five five and a half.

513
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: And now it's just coming down because of who needs

514
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: to win, and then you get three, all of a sudden,

515
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: you're getting two points of value. I'm going to keep

516
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 2: this simple for my last pick. I'm betting this is

517
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: really on a gut. So he took the Broncos, So

518
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 2: I do like that one. I'll get in later to

519
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 2: I don't like the Redskins, who do qualify, but I'm

520
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 2: for this part. My last pick, I'm going with the Bengals.

521
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 2: And again for this contest, it doesn't when we do this,

522
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 2: it doesn't. Pushes don't count as wins, and it's the

523
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: only thing that matter. So I'm taking Bengals plus two

524
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 2: and a half. Now it's it's about to go to three.

525
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: It'll go to three. The whole world will be on

526
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 2: the Browns. And this is basically just a play on

527
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: what I've seen, what I've heard, and I just can't

528
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 2: envision the Browns showing up here. This is a team

529
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 2: that was in turnoe on the locker room. You see

530
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 2: them arguing, and I believe in them to put it

531
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 2: together for a game at home, in your home season

532
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: finale against the best team in the NFL against the Ravens. Well,

533
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 2: and they stilled a shot at the playoffs, like they

534
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 2: could have been the Raiders if they just beat the

535
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: Ravens and all those other things happened, the Browns would

536
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 2: have went to the playoffs by just beating the Bengals here.

537
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 2: But they pulled the Browns. But I think Kitchens is done.

538
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 2: He's lost it. He's lost the locker room. And they're

539
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,719
Speaker 2: going too since there's gonna be seven to the tickets

540
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 2: are like twenty one dollars on stuff hump, there's gonna

541
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: be seventeen people here, and you know, I just think

542
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 2: that they're going to see them come out as flat

543
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: as you'd ever seen an NFL team. I think the

544
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 2: Bengals are little undervalue of the market because they went

545
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 2: through a stretch with Ryan Finley as their quarterback for

546
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 2: three or four games they average eleven points per game.

547
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 2: You know, since then, they've gotten you know, healthier at

548
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: tight end, they've gotten ross back, and then the big

549
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: one is Dalton, who could just throw it at least

550
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: downfield a little bit with Finley couldn't do so since

551
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: they were ravaging about eleven points per game with Finley,

552
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: you know, since Dalton's come back, they're averaging around twenty

553
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 2: two to twenty three points per game. They should be

554
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 2: able to run on the Browns. The Browns run defense,

555
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 2: I mean it really misses their defensive ends in general.

556
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 2: But the Browns run defense is horrid. I mean it

557
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 2: is beyond bad. And Mixing went for twenty three for

558
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 2: four catches for forty yards in the first meeting. The

559
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: Bengals just handed it off and ran for six yards

560
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: of carry. In the first meeting. They ended off thirty

561
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 2: two times right for one hundred and eighty yards. The

562
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: Browns also their backs should also have some success, by

563
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 2: the way, but I think the Bengals be able to

564
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: run it. They'll be able to and I'm just in

565
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: the Browns run defenses so bad, so I think the

566
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 2: Bengals abble moving on the ground. Daldon hit some plays,

567
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 2: but this is mainly I don't think the Browns show

568
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 2: up at all. Don't get off the bus in which

569
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 2: should be a just absolutely horrid environment. If you're at

570
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 2: that game, you couldn't pay me to go to that

571
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 2: game at this point. Bet against the Browns. It seems

572
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 2: it's like it's the play. It's always seems to be

573
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 2: the play. And I agree, I don't know what the

574
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 2: Browns motivations are. I mean, maybe there's some individual incentives there,

575
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: but that doesn't really help, you know, the team cohesion.

576
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 2: So h and then you have, you know, we know,

577
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 2: help a play call the hard play call either.

578
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we know guys like you know, oh, guy

579
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 3: like going to Beckham's not one hundred percent, you know

580
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 3: what I mean. So it's tough Nick Chubbs seeing what's

581
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 3: work in the passing game.

582
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 2: It's just I could see Beckham getting benched by Kitchens

583
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: after like arguing with them in the first quarter, like

584
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 2: stuff like that, Like they're arguing. People are arguing with

585
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: each other in this game in the first quarter. It's

586
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: just there's gonna be penalties galore. It's gonna be a disaster.

587
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 1: After evaluating millions some data in lead blanked and high

588
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 1: le gamble troying two thousands run vs. Cincinnati by two

589
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: one hundred points, fire worthless.

590
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: Let's see. So yeah, my third one, I don't know.

591
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: I go back and forth. I was thinking of going

592
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: with the Redskins. I took the the the Bucks, so

593
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: I'll stick with them in our in our draft, they

594
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 3: are it looks like a pick them right now. Falcons

595
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 3: coming in here again and this didn't work last week,

596
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: kind of fading the Falcons. But I just I just

597
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 3: think these teams are still pretty much even we match

598
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: at this point. Falcons going on the road, Matt Ryan

599
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: uh In that offense not quite as efficient in you know,

600
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 3: non dome settings, so they'll be outside in the outdoors

601
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: granted pretty probably good weather, but you know, just not

602
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 3: as effective at this point. They're just really jamming the

603
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: ball into Julio. Eventually, this is gonna get predictable. And

604
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 3: the Bucks have been playing better on the outside at

605
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 3: corner and we you know we've seen that with with

606
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 3: Deed and Carlton Davis h offering, you know, a step

607
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 3: up from what it was earlier in the year when

608
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 3: you know, Hard Graves was mixing in and all that.

609
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 3: So like the Bucks in a game that I think

610
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 3: it's more two teams pretty evenly matched. I know the

611
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 3: Bucks are without some weapons, but I think these two

612
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: teams are for the most part at this point in

613
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: the year that the Falcons missing Ridley and you know

614
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 3: whatnot evenly matched teams. Falcons on the road, give me

615
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: the Bucks here, Jameis Winston, giveth Jameis Winston take it away.

616
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 3: But I mean he's still you know, going out there

617
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: and throwing for three thirty with all these backups. So

618
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: you know, it's kind of in a similar situation to

619
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 3: the Falcons where they might get their yards by throwing

620
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 3: twenty times to Julio Jones. Jameis Winston was spread it

621
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 3: around to to Prashad and Watson and Howard and all

622
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 3: these guys, but the results is the same. Matt Ryan

623
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: hasn't been the most careful with the ball for most

624
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 3: of the season either. And again, I just I think

625
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: the Bucks defense is little better than people think. You know,

626
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: Houston had had some struggles last week, and a lot

627
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: of people didn't expect them to have, you know, struggle

628
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 3: against this defense. So you know, top two run, top

629
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 3: top run defense, and then that's that's gonna be key

630
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 3: because Freeman for the Falcons, Devonte Freeman has been really

631
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 3: stepping up of light in the pass game, but the

632
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 3: Bucks are also number two DVOA on defending running back passes,

633
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 3: which you know, if you win at Freeman a little

634
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 3: bit in the run game and the pass game. You

635
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: made the offense really one dimensional with with Julio Christian

636
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: Blake their other receiver. He has run. I believe it's

637
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 3: seventy four routes over the last three games have been

638
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: targeted once. So you're gonna kind of force the Falcons

639
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 3: to do some things either they don't want to do,

640
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 3: or you're gonna make a pretty one dimensional on the

641
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: road team that's underperformed all year. Dan Quinn probably his

642
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: last game, give me the Bucks here.

643
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

644
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 3: I think I disagree.

645
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 2: I still going to take into this game. I actually

646
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: do think it's worth an underlook because what you said

647
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 2: is right, and I've liked Bucks overs this year. But

648
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: in the last couple of weeks without Godwin and without Evan,

649
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 2: their offense obviously isn't the same. They're still gonna chuck

650
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: it a round, but they're playing, you know, a little slower.

651
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: And the thing is that their defense is trending in

652
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: the right direction. The Falcons defense is trending in the

653
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 2: right direction, you know. And the Falcons don't have Ridley

654
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 2: and they obviously lost to new earlier this year, So

655
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: I think both defenses, and you're right, Ryan last week

656
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: had I think one or two picks because he was

657
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: forcing it in a double coverage against you know, just

658
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: trying to get the ball to Julio Jones. But then

659
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: I look at it and the Falcons defense. It has

660
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: to be said, and I didn't think there. I was like,

661
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: maybe there's something to this over the year, But apparently

662
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: there is because once Quinn gave up play calling duties

663
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 2: as defensive coordinator, so they had they played eight games

664
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: before the bye, and they allowed two hundred and fifty

665
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 2: points before the buy. In those eight games, it's about

666
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: thirty two points per game. In the seven games since

667
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: they've allowed one hundred and twenty seven, it's about eighteen.

668
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: They've been a top five scoring defense, top five third

669
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: down defense. And look, they played the Saints twice. You know,

670
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: they played the forty nine ers. They played this Bucks offense.

671
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 2: When health the Bucks the only team that's blown them out.

672
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 2: They started one and seven. They're five and two since

673
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 2: to buy, so they have a little bit of revenge

674
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 2: from that Bucks game. Have put up thirty five in

675
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: that game. Godwin went bonkers, so obviously you don't have

676
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: him now, but it took them some time, I think

677
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: to figure out some things. I both could you know,

678
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: both the defenses are trending up. Their strength is in

679
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 2: the front seven, you know, so let's call it a wash.

680
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 2: And then do I say, you know, do I trust

681
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:28,959
Speaker 2: Julio Hooper and Freeman or And then I look at

682
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: the Bucks and I say, oh, man, I don't know.

683
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: So that's that's like I know, James gonna spread around.

684
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 2: But just having those three pretty reliable options. And what

685
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: you said about the Bucks matching up with Freeman is right,

686
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 2: and their their front.

687
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 4: Seven is solid. But that's that is my concern at

688
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 4: the end of the day.

689
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 2: But I don't hate it.

690
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 3: This should be Bucks minus three, maybe Bucks minus two

691
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: getting a pick. So give me the Bucks. And again

692
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: you know, and went in doubt. Hey, dan Quinn, that's

693
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 3: that's one of my firdo, all right. So that does

694
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 3: it for our Sunday six pack. Stuck going with the

695
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: Giants plus four and a half, the Texans plus three

696
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 3: and a half, and the Cincinnati Bengals plus two and

697
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: a half. I'm going with the Jets plus one and

698
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 3: a half, the Broncos minus three and a half, and

699
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,479
Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Bucks as a pick against the Atlanta Falcons. Now,

700
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: let's get into our favorite total of the week.

701
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: Stuck.

702
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 3: You started us off with the six packs, all jump

703
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: right into the total. Got a little off brand with

704
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: the Broncos in that last segment, going right back on brand,

705
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 3: I mean, can you guess what the total I am

706
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: picking this league?

707
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: It was the Ravens under or the Jets under.

708
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: Obviously the Ravens under. It's not because of the Ravens.

709
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: It's the Steelers. The Steelers unders seven in the row. Now, yeah,

710
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: I think it's seven games straight. They've hit the under.

711
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 3: The Steelers, who are top four defense, going against a

712
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 3: Ravens team that looks like they're going to sit Lamar Jackson.

713
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: Not only will Maar Jackson, but mark Ingram, who's in

714
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,239
Speaker 3: the top five in touchdowns from scrimmage this year, has

715
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: fifteen touchdowns. So you're essentially removing who is the best

716
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 3: offensive weapons in the National Football League this year.

717
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: You know, arguably the best guard in the NFL.

718
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 3: Right, So, like, the biggest risk in this game is,

719
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: and that's always a risk you're willing to take when

720
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 3: you're betting unders in these kind of games, is you know,

721
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 3: defensive production kind of getting out of hand a little

722
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: bit or setting up short fields for the offenses and whatnot,

723
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,719
Speaker 3: which could happen. But you also have the Steelers who

724
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: wanted the quarterback that they're going to start, Devilon Hodges.

725
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 3: They don't. They wanted to bench him for quarterbacks that

726
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 3: they already benched and Mason Rudolph who got hurt. So

727
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: now they're talking about Paxton Winch will be the backup,

728
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: but Hodges will be on a short leave, so leash

729
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: excuse me, so we could see some of Wnch. So

730
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: this is just a mess of offense for both of

731
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 3: these teams. And it's no wonder that the Steelers have

732
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 3: been hitting the under then, uh, you know, mention this

733
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: on the pod I think it was last week, mentioned

734
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 3: it in the in the early write up for the

735
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: games we better early on Action Network dot com. But

736
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: the Mike tom Win has the most profitable coach when

737
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: the steen when his team goes on the road in

738
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: our entire bet Labs database dating back to twenty oh three,

739
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 3: over one hundred and twenty coaches included in that database.

740
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 3: The Tomlin road under sixty one and forty two seven

741
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 3: and oer this season, fifty nine percent hit rate all time.

742
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: That's you know, that kind of goes into the kind

743
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: of games that he plays. It kind of goes into

744
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 3: he's gonna get him, He's going to get him fired up. Hey,

745
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 3: we need to make the playoffs. Division rival played him

746
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 3: close last time. Not as on the spread as some people.

747
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 3: Some people like the spread in this game. I think

748
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 3: it could go either way, but don't see how these

749
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 3: teams score enough points to hit this total at at

750
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: thirty eight. And I like it especially it's it's still

751
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 3: floating thirty eight, thirty eight and a half. Just in

752
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 3: general all time dating back to two thousand and three,

753
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 3: the Mike Tom win over regardless of venue, home, road, whatever,

754
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 3: coming off win loss when the total is thirty eight

755
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 3: or more is ninety nine seventy and one. That is

756
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: a fifty nine percent hit rate as well. If you

757
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: bet on every one of those, you would have a

758
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 3: fifteen percent ROI, which is pretty solid. So did bang

759
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 3: An these Steelers unders all year? See no reason to

760
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 3: stop now, Yeah, I can't disagree with you. By the way,

761
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 3: I think the Ravens are still going to win this game.

762
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 3: It fits into that scenario. Now, the reason I didn't bet.

763
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 3: I'm waiting to see if this gets the three. If not,

764
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 3: I'm going to tease it. It's a teaser for the

765
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 3: teaser segment. But yeah, I agree it should be low scoring.

766
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 3: The only thing that could go wrong is, you know,

767
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: the Ravens are gonna They're just gonna run the ball,

768
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: and their defense is still you know, Brandon Williams is playing,

769
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 3: hurts a little bit in the run deep, but it's

770
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 3: not like the Steelers can really run the ball. I

771
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 3: was banged up again, but every time he plays a game,

772
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 3: he's one game totter and.

773
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: Will Fuller like, it's just they can only play one

774
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 2: game at a time, one game a month. One. Yeah,

775
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: you know, Earl Thomas isn't playing. But it's not like

776
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 2: the the the Steelers can throw it deep. So the

777
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 2: only concern, you know, is if turnovers. I don't know

778
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: if RG three, if they're just gonna go out there

779
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: and let him chuck. I assume they're just gonna run.

780
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 2: But if the Ravens decide to sit their corners, I

781
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: don't think they are. I think hardball is pretty candid

782
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 2: with who they are and aren't sitting. But if Harball says, Look,

783
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: Jimmy Smith's made of glass weekend. Our defense is all

784
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: based on our corner. So we're sitting Smith, Peters and Humphrey.

785
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 2: If that happens, I don't even know if the Steelers

786
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 2: can still throw in their backup the Ravens backupporters. But

787
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 2: the Ravens backup counters are bad. It's why their defense

788
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: sucked the first four weeks of the year. But yeah,

789
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a game where the Ravens just

790
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: want to sit run it. I think the Ravens defense

791
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 2: will be fired up. They want to, you know, end

792
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: the Steelers season. The crowd will be well, this is

793
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 2: a team that's won eleven games in a row, so

794
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 2: they don't want to end that. I think they're gonna

795
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 2: be motivated to win, even though they have their backups in.

796
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: This line is crazy. It was already at three. People. Listen,

797
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: the line was at three because everyone knew the Ravens

798
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 2: were going to rest their starters and that's where those

799
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 2: lines should be. Well, now it's the Steelers need to

800
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: win and they're playing the backups. Now you could get

801
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 2: Ravens plus three here. That's what I mean. Ravens are

802
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: gonna win by three in a Tucker Field goal.

803
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 3: You know, it's funny, this kind of goes into isn't

804
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 3: John isn't Harbor the most profitable preseason coach as well?

805
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 4: And this is like the same type of the great depth.

806
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, like you think they're you think, oh, they're out there,

807
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: down and out there, they're definitely gonna lose. They're they're

808
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: sitting their starters, and it's like this team will still

809
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 3: play to win, and there's still a deep team and

810
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, they still have good special teams, which

811
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 3: in a game like this could move large. So I

812
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 3: don't think that the Steelers are gonna come out and

813
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 3: try to throw the ball downfield. You mentioned the teams

814
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: are going to play conservative in this kind of situation.

815
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 3: They don't want to have Duck Hodges that quarterback. They

816
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 3: made that pretty clear last week. So I don't think

817
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 3: they come out and just start chucking it down the fields.

818
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 3: It's James Washington, you know, just even if the Ravens

819
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 3: a arresting people. So yeah, I like the under. It's

820
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: thirty eight right now, got it at thirty eight and

821
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: a half. I think it's a play. It's a great

822
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 3: play at thirty eight or higher.

823
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,919
Speaker 2: So all right, I'm going to for my total something

824
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: already mentioned and teased, and it was the Bucks Falcons

825
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 2: under I think that the Falcons offense is a little

826
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 2: easier to game plan for with basically just targeting Julio

827
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 2: Jones thirty times a game and there's really no one

828
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: else you have to worry about. The Bucks are smart

829
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: enough to do that, and you saw the Bucks do

830
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: that last week with Hopkins when Stills went out and

831
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: all it was left it was it was Hopkins and

832
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: then their return man who that Yeah, yeah, DeAndre Carter,

833
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 2: that's there was basically that's basically it. Who was a

834
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: sub I think a substitute teacher two years ago, I believe.

835
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 2: I've read that recently making like one hundred and fifty

836
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: dollars a day, So good for him. He's been okay

837
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: as a returnament too, But that was it. So like

838
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: they're they I think that they're capable. They've had some

839
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 2: issues on the back end, but they've been better. As

840
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 2: you said, they got rid of some guys and then

841
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 2: their villains have been playing a lot better. Actually, I'm

842
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: a big fan of Dean from Auburn, so I think

843
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 2: that they could slow down that passing attack, and the

844
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: same with the Falcons, like it's just you know, it's

845
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: there's there's no godwin, there's no evans. They're not gonna

846
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball. Neither team's gonna be

847
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 2: able to run the ball. So I think it's late

848
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: season divisional under. Both teams are playing for nothing, so

849
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: there's a chance. Also, you just come out and one

850
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 2: of these teams just gets drilled and they are flat

851
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 2: from the start. So give me the Falcons bucks under

852
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 2: forty eight.

853
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 3: It's gonna be a weird game, however you look at it.

854
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 3: So I don't hate that pick at all.

855
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 2: I think I mean outdoors sto, this isn't in the Dome.

856
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure Windy, when you combine that win trend

857
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 3: of ten miles per hour plus which already hits out

858
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 3: a fifty six percent equipped with the divisional under trend,

859
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure the hit rate is something absurd. Our guy,

860
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 3: I think it's Mike Randall wrote it up because he's

861
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 3: taken the Chiefs under as well for that same reason.

862
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 3: So I think it's some absurd hit rate like in

863
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 3: the seventies or eighties, for like Windy divisional games late

864
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 3: in the year, so it's probably going to be an

865
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 3: ugly game one way or another. So yeah, let's go

866
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 3: now to our favorite teaser of the week.

867
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

868
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 3: We're going to start this off with You're pick stuck.

869
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 3: And before we do that, I know one of the

870
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: teams are teasing is a team that going is going

871
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 3: against the team that we're going to dedicate the coaches

872
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 3: pep talk to this week again by popular demand, the

873
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 3: coaches pep Talk from the nineteen ninety four film Blue Chips.

874
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: No again, So we got to dedicate.

875
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: This one to the Steelers. Here from Coach Bell in

876
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 3: the nineteen ninety four film Blue Chips. All Right, boys,

877
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 3: we got a job to do now.

878
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 2: Goddamn it.

879
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 3: We're not going out there to make a good show

880
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 3: or just put up a good fight. We're going out

881
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 3: there to be the best goddamn team in the country.

882
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 2: Right now.

883
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 3: Let me tell you something, boys, you may not know this,

884
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 3: but I know it. There is the talent in this.

885
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: Room to do just that.

886
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 5: I'll tell them exactly what we're gonna do. I'll give

887
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 5: them our offense. I'll give them our defense, because it's

888
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 5: not what you do. Goddamn it, it's how you do it.

889
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 5: And we're gonna go nose to nose with him, and

890
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 5: you're gonna play better than you ever dreamed of, because

891
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 5: god damn it, that's what I demand of you.

892
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 3: All right, sex, So yeah, tell us why you're teasing

893
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 3: the Ravens and who else you got here?

894
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 2: Unreal? I mean, I thought the Ravens gonna be Ravens

895
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 2: and the pep talk is for the Ravens game and

896
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 2: it's not the wire this week. Don't worry people, The

897
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 2: Ravens will be playing the playoffs. I will make sure

898
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: that we have some good wire clips.

899
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 3: Swear the twice we will beat you longer and older?

900
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 5: Do you beat your long because you do not yet

901
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 5: to win for we do.

902
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean I alread explained it like I

903
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 2: think the rage would be three point favors year with

904
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 2: everyone sitting And now this line's crossed the two, you're

905
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 2: getting two and a half. You can tease it now

906
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: up across the seven true wong teaser now crossing three, four,

907
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 2: six seven, no brainer. In a low scoring game that

908
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 2: are presumably a low scoring game where the total is

909
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 2: at thirty eight, it's making that tease even more valuable.

910
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 2: And then I'll use kind of the same logic with

911
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 2: the Jets teasing them up over a touchdown in uh,

912
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: presumably a low scoring game. This so it was a

913
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: thirty six and a half where the Bills will eventually

914
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: pull their starters playing for nothing, I think the Jets

915
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: will be the more motivated team. Uh, so give me

916
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: the Jets Ravens teaser.

917
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 3: Yeah. I like the Jets as well, teasing them. You know,

918
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: I picked them in the six pack. I think that

919
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 3: they are a good teas as well. If you're not

920
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 3: quite sure how they're gonna come out, you know, as

921
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 3: far as covering the short spread, you can tease them

922
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 3: up to seven and a half. I think that's a

923
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 3: pretty solid bet there with the Bills potentially rest and

924
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 3: their starters for you know, a decent portion of the game,

925
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 3: because I don't see why they would leave them in

926
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 3: you know, more than a couple series to kind of

927
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 3: get them, you know, get them some work and get

928
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 3: to keep them in rhythm and then teasing. And this

929
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 3: worked out last week as well, teasing the Chiefs down.

930
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 3: So you know, I know it's always dangerous to go

931
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 3: against rivers and the Chargers, you know in these teases here.

932
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 3: But Chiefs defense been playing really well. That's something that

933
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 3: we haven't always seen in the past this year, very

934
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 3: good pass defense and you have that, you have Philip Rivers,

935
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 3: and listen, I think this is a game. It's week seventeen.

936
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 3: We've been hearing the whispers all year about Rivers, you know,

937
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 3: uncertain future. This could be a game where where Tyrod

938
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 3: Taylor gets some get some run. I could see them

939
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: pulling Rivers. I could see Rivers turning the ball over,

940
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 3: especially if the Chiefs get out to a lead and

941
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 3: the Chargers are in comeback mode. So like the Chiefs

942
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 3: teasing them down from eight and a half to two

943
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 3: and a half. I think they win by at least

944
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 3: a field goal. But they have the potential to pull

945
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: off the Charges as well, though that usually doesn't happen

946
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 3: when Rivers is on the road. But like the spot

947
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs, So going Chiefs jets here for my teeth.

948
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 2: Yep, that's true. Wong with the Chiefs too, So don't

949
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 2: hate it all.

950
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 3: Right, let's get into our underdog money line parlot.

951
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

952
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay.

953
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 2: I'm going back to the City that Never sleeps. I

954
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: already talked about it earlier. It fits my criteria. I

955
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 2: think the line is too high, so there's some value here.

956
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 2: The Eagles still have all the problems they've had before.

957
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,439
Speaker 2: This is the Giant Super Bowl, and I can even

958
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 2: envision Eli coming in for some random reason, could be

959
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 2: a Jones concussion, a Jones pick. Eli comes in and

960
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 2: goes sales off into the sunset with a game winning

961
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 2: touchdown drive to eliminate the Eagles from postseasons. Can touch

962
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 2: and assuming the win, because again in the NFC East,

963
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: you don't have to win games. They both Eagles could

964
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 2: lose and then the Cowboys, Crews and Eagles still get

965
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 2: to the playoffs. But I like the Giants here. I

966
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 2: think they win.

967
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 3: You know what, you know, I was going to go

968
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 3: with the Chicago Bears for some of the same reasons,

969
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 3: but why not, Let's just go to the Jets. Let's

970
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 3: just try to double up on Yeah, let's do it,

971
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 3: because I mean I like the Jets. I'm taking them

972
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 3: plus one point five, which means, I, you know, think

973
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 3: they have a pretty good shot at winning the football game.

974
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 3: And they actually have better moneyline odds than the Bears,

975
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 3: who are one point underdogs, and essentially even money on

976
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: the on the money lines, you got the Giants that

977
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: should pay out around five to one. You can go

978
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 3: to Action network dot com slash betting hyphen calculators to

979
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 3: calculate all types of parlay bets and expected value on

980
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 3: all your different kind of bets, so hopefully we can

981
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: double up on this New York, New York love, get

982
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 3: it right. Let's get into the best of the rest,

983
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 3: which are the games that didn't make it into any

984
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 3: other segment. Let's start off the seven and eight Bears

985
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 3: going to Minnesota to take on the ten and five Vikings.

986
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 3: The Vikings are one point favorites, eighty one percent of

987
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 3: the bets seventy three percent of the money on the

988
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings here stuck. Any thoughts on this one.

989
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 2: I can't believe I had backed Mitch Bortles against the

990
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 2: revenge ball and I had to do it once I

991
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 2: got the seven sent by numbers, and I can't believe

992
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 2: I did it. I'm still shook after Sunday night, after

993
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,399
Speaker 2: that line got the seven, and I know the whole

994
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 2: world was on the Chiefs and and books needed more

995
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: money on the Chiefs. They knew, I mean they knew

996
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 2: they needed some money on the Bears. They knew that.

997
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 2: You know, Sharper people would take it at seven and

998
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 2: I fell into the hole. But anyway, I can't back

999
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 2: Mitch Portles here. I can't bet this Bears team. I mean,

1000
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 2: you want to sum up with the Bears team? Is

1001
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 2: this twenty nineteen Bears team fourth and twenty fourth. The

1002
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 2: end of that game, they throw it, they check it

1003
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 2: down for five Mitch Portles checks it down for five yards,

1004
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 2: and they had one guy who ran aro out longer

1005
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:58,240
Speaker 2: than it's fifteen yards. It's just sad. But the Vikings,

1006
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: look they're playing for nothing. They're locked. I have nothing

1007
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 2: to play for it the last week. They also have

1008
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 2: some injuries, so you're not gonna see Cook play. You're

1009
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 2: not gonna see Madison play. You might not see feel

1010
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 2: And play. Kendricks on the defensive side is not gonna play.

1011
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sean mannon and

1012
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 2: Cousins doesn't play. And you also have a very conservative coach.

1013
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: I mean, the Vikings, I kind of lean to the

1014
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 2: under here. I just got to see who's out on

1015
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 2: that Vikings defense. But I mean, at the end of

1016
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 2: the day, you're also still playing Mitch Bortle's in that

1017
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 2: awful Bears offense. But the Vikings should come out here

1018
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,879
Speaker 2: and just run it with your boy who did nothing

1019
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 2: last week. My girl was so excited about him, Boon.

1020
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 2: It's just Sean Manning versus Mitch Bortles Week seventeen in

1021
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 2: a meaningless game. Yeah.

1022
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: So the home under under Mike Zimmer for the the

1023
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: Vikings twenty nine and eighteen. Then you have Mitch Trubisky

1024
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 3: in games with a total of forty four. Last the

1025
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 3: under is twenty two to ten, eight and four this season,

1026
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 3: Mitch Trubisky as a road underdog, and there's still an

1027
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 3: underdog as we record this nine and two towards the under.

1028
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 3: So a lot of trends kind of pointing where you're under.

1029
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 3: That's the play I would I would make it.

1030
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and let me we're recording this on Christmas Eve

1031
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,879
Speaker 2: because we love what we do. It's actually Christmas Day now, Yeah,

1032
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 2: Christmas two in the morning, so that's the time. Listen,

1033
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: that's the timing right now. And football doesn't sleep like

1034
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 2: my family and other my girl sonding like you have

1035
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: to work to them, like yeah, it's like still a

1036
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: regular football weekend, and like tomorrow is gonna be practice

1037
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 2: and you'll get updates on what the Vikings will do.

1038
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 2: So the latest update was from this afternoon on Christmas Eve,

1039
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 2: where it said the Vikings you know, may rest certain players,

1040
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 2: which means they will and you know that they're going

1041
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 2: to rest Cook and the ones that are banged up.

1042
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 2: Bike Simmer hasn't made a decision yet. That will probably

1043
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 2: come tomorrow and or Thursday, so keep an eye out there.

1044
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,800
Speaker 2: That's why the line jipped. And you can assume that

1045
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 2: I think they're going to set a bunch, but you

1046
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: know they could. They might start cousins at a couple

1047
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 2: of the receivers for a couple of drives and then

1048
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 2: pull them. That's why the sign is one, you're not

1049
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 2: going to get a max effort for the biking.

1050
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 3: Oh No, we're getting We're getting some c. J. Hamm

1051
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 3: at halfback in this one. We're getting some Tyler what's

1052
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: his name, Tyler conklin at, We're getting all of it.

1053
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 3: We're getting some Alexander Hollins. It wide out quand treadwell.

1054
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 4: With the Obisa Johnson, He's gonna get like thirty targets.

1055
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 3: Or it's gonna be b C. Johnson and with Kuwan

1056
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: treadwill like beat a coverage bus to to screw the

1057
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 3: the the under or something under. Yeah, it'll be It'll

1058
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 3: be brutal AFC South. We have a matchup between the

1059
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 3: seven and eight Indianapolis Colts and they five and ten

1060
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags getting three and a half points, seventy

1061
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: eight percent of the bets eighty five percent of the

1062
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 3: money on the Colts. The total is forty three with

1063
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 3: fifty six percent of the bets but only forty seven

1064
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 3: percent of the money on the over stuck.

1065
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 2: What are we doing with this one?

1066
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 4: I think, I mean Colts Jags. I have absolutely nothing

1067
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:40,399
Speaker 4: for this game.

1068
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say that I've written out

1069
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 2: is the Colts did come out and just wax the

1070
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: Panthers thirty eight six last week. They have a good staff, right,

1071
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 2: I trust their staff. It's not the most talented team,

1072
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: but that was the week after they were eliminated. So

1073
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: if I'm picking a team that I think is going

1074
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: to show up here in this awful dead flat spot,

1075
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 2: it's the Colts against the Jags team, that's just they

1076
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: had one miracle win and to come back win against

1077
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 2: the Raiders. Other than that, they just get getting their

1078
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 2: doors blown off every single week. You know. So, But

1079
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: at my laying three and a half with the Colts

1080
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 2: on the road here, probably not. You know, if you

1081
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 2: got it early with the Colts, probably a good bet.

1082
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 2: Now it's a complete pass for me. But the Jags,

1083
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 2: they don't show up Colts. That is run right down

1084
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 2: their throat all game.

1085
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 3: They have.

1086
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: Their run defenses is bad, Their linebackers are bad. They

1087
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 2: have so many injuries on that defense. Their offense is

1088
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: not bad. I mean, it's just a bad team. It's

1089
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 2: a game of two bad teams. This is what I

1090
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 2: was mentioning earlier in the podcast. You're going to these

1091
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 2: week seventeen games that you just go, oh, this is

1092
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: one of them.

1093
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 3: Well I got some.

1094
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 2: It's not.

1095
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I agree with you on the game. That's

1096
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 3: pretty much how I see playing out. Colts should be

1097
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 3: able to run. But I do have something on the total.

1098
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 3: Remember that in twenty fifteen they moved the extra point back.

1099
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 3: When you see a total of forty three, I just

1100
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 3: kind of a feush reference. The books really kind of

1101
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: want you to take the They want you to take

1102
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 3: the over. They set it at forty three, it probably

1103
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: should be lower than forty three. If they set it

1104
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 3: up forty four, then okay, then it's a little more

1105
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 3: you know, in play to go every way. But at

1106
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 3: forty three, the books are usually inflating it. Here under

1107
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 3: forty three. Since twenty fifteen, forty four and twenty two

1108
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 3: sixty six point seven percent thirty percent ROI covering by

1109
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: an average of three point five per game. So when

1110
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 3: you see these forty three is are usually just inflated

1111
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 3: numbers that really probably should be forty one.

1112
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 2: Forty three is a new key number like it used

1113
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 2: to be forty four, but now once because there's more

1114
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 2: missed extra points. That's why forty three is now much

1115
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: more important since twenty fifteen, and why you're bringing that

1116
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 2: number up.

1117
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 3: Let's get into our next matchup, which is the three

1118
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 3: and twelve Washington Redskins, seven and eight Dallas Cowboys. You

1119
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 3: talked about it stuck Cowboys laying eleven sixty four percent

1120
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: of the bet sixty five percent of the money on

1121
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 3: the Redskins. The total forty four and a half with

1122
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 3: sixty eight percent of the bets and eighty three percent

1123
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 3: of the money. I mean, over, how do you feel

1124
00:49:58,200 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 3: about this? And why don't you like the Redskins?

1125
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I was all set to go with

1126
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 2: the Redskins. This is the my spot, and especially with

1127
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,759
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, a team you know, a big home favor too.

1128
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,399
Speaker 2: And where's this locker room? Is garried on his way

1129
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 2: out after last weekend's lacks of days ago effort. But

1130
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 2: there's a reason why I can't play this. A Number one,

1131
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 2: if even if we look at the Redskins offensive side,

1132
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 2: they have interest in the offensive line on the outside

1133
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 2: of receiver. Now, I mean, Geist is out. Their offense

1134
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 2: is not healthy, and you know, now you're down the

1135
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,240
Speaker 2: case keen. The Haskins is out. That's just the office

1136
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: side of the ball. But let's talk about the defense.

1137
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: And the reason I can't play this is because the Cowboys,

1138
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 2: at the end of the day still have three really

1139
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 2: good receiver and the best offense the NFL by some measures.

1140
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 2: They have three really good receivers and they have a

1141
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 2: quarterback that maybe is a little limited in how far

1142
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 2: you can throw it down the field, but he should

1143
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 2: be able to play complete pitch and catch maybe outs,

1144
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 2: little drags, just pitch a catch all down the fount

1145
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,399
Speaker 2: Here's why the Skins are now down to their ninth

1146
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 2: and tenth quarterbacks cornerbacks from the beginning of the year.

1147
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 2: You have Dunbar and he was their best quarter by far.

1148
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 2: Danny Johnson just want to on IR yesterday Christmas Eve.

1149
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 2: Jimmy Mooreland, the rookie out of JAMU just went to IR. Recently,

1150
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 2: Stroman and DRC who are on the depth chart at

1151
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 2: the beginning of the year, they went to IR. Fabian

1152
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 2: More now he's hurt. And then you have Josh Norman,

1153
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 2: who's just a healthy scratch because they don't want to

1154
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 2: pay him his incentives. Even though he's the second highest

1155
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 2: ped corner in the league. He doesn't play. Even though

1156
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 2: there's eight corners that are hurt. So it's just a disaster.

1157
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 2: It's now. They projected starting corners this week are Aaron Colvin,

1158
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 2: he was released by the Texans earlier this year, Cody

1159
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 2: Sends the Ball he was released by the Broncos early

1160
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 2: this year and he signed last week. And Cavon Webster.

1161
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 2: He did make the final cuts on the Saints was

1162
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 2: signed last week. That's two guys they signed off the

1163
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: streets last week starting and then they just signed two

1164
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,959
Speaker 2: undrafted players Breon Borders indeed, delaying off the practice squad

1165
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 2: from the Jags, who they say are going to get

1166
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 2: playing time. Just a disaster at corner. You know, the

1167
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 2: Atlantic Collins, who isn't known for coverage. He's dealing with

1168
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 2: an achilles injury. Monte Nicholson is not a great free state.

1169
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 2: So I just don't know how the Cowboys just played

1170
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 2: pitch a catch all the way on the field against

1171
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 2: these corners who not only off the streets under after guys,

1172
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 2: they haven't played together, they have no they don't, let

1173
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 2: mean they've what they're a week or two. So it

1174
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: is just a nightmare situation at corner. And if you

1175
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,720
Speaker 2: want evidence, because these were the guys that were playing

1176
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 2: last week. Daniel Jones last week twenty eight or forty

1177
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 2: two for three hundred and fifty two yards, five touchdowns,

1178
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: no picks. So that's what Danny Dives did against the Redskins. Now,

1179
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 2: the Giants have some good receivers. Daniel Jones has shown,

1180
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 2: you know, some good things, but Dak Prescott and those

1181
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 2: receivers are much better. This is also indoors in Dallas,

1182
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 2: not outside in Washington. I mean, this could get really ugly.

1183
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 2: Amari Cooper could have eighteen catches for ninety four years, it.

1184
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: Doesn't matter after the fantasy season is over. And he

1185
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 3: screwed everybody over pretty much down in every playoff game.

1186
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:54,239
Speaker 3: So but yeah, I agree. Clinton Dunbar was number one

1187
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 3: in Pro Football focuses cornerback grade, and.

1188
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 2: Their offense is all banged up too. At receiver of

1189
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,399
Speaker 2: an offensive line is coming on though.

1190
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: I like Steven Simms him McLaren ar.

1191
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 4: I guess who wasn't a practice today, McLaurin.

1192
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 2: So he's it's.

1193
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 3: Christmas regardless Christmas. I want them to practice practice.

1194
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: Mclark got hurt through. Mclark got hurt though last week, right, Yeah?

1195
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 1: Is he?

1196
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 3: I don't think he's out though, is he?

1197
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 2: Yeah he's not. He's not ruled out yet. But he

1198
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 2: wasn't a practice at all today, and he he went

1199
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:22,879
Speaker 2: down on Sunday. I'm just saying it's something to watch,

1200
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 2: you know.

1201
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 3: I mean, no, because no way do I want really

1202
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 3: the over might hit in this game just based on

1203
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:29,839
Speaker 3: all of these things. I think because Keenum. I mean,

1204
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 3: I think, yeah for the nasks, just in the way

1205
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 3: that they can play with Keenum person, I agree.

1206
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 2: So but anyway, I agree, But there's just I just

1207
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 2: can't trust this Redskins defense.

1208
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 3: All right, Let's move on the twelve and three Saints

1209
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 3: going to Carolina to take on these five and ten Panthers,

1210
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 3: starting rookie Will Greer for a second career start. Saints

1211
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 3: thirteen point favorites, getting seventy six percent of the bets

1212
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 3: and eighty four percent of the dollars wagered. The total

1213
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: is forty seven. Could be some weather issues in Carolina,

1214
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 3: maybe some win, maybe some rain. Seventy one percent of

1215
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:04,320
Speaker 3: the bets, eighty eight percent of the money on the underyear.

1216
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on this one stuff?

1217
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Panthers are dead. Will Griers looked

1218
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 2: awful last week. He was lowest rated quarterback in preseason.

1219
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 2: Can't back him here. But I mean Carolina, so coaching

1220
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 2: change doesn't matter. This team's been just getting drilled in December.

1221
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: I mean, they lost to the Skins at home, then

1222
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 2: they lost by twenty to the Falcons. They did lose

1223
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 2: by six to the Seahawks, that's only because that's the rule.

1224
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 2: If the Seaalks win, they have to win one possion.

1225
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 2: They were upyree the Seals wire by three touchdowns in

1226
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 2: that game and faint Yeah they lost then thirty eight

1227
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: six that the Colts. This team's dead. Wilgrist stinks. This

1228
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: passing gave stinks. Their run defense stinks. The Saints should

1229
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 2: go out here and get the win. The line's probably

1230
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 2: a little inflated. I'm not going to lay thirteen here.

1231
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,720
Speaker 2: It is amazing that the Saints could win thirteen games

1232
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 2: and get the three seed, and we'll be hosting the

1233
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 2: Vikings by preparing for them right now. If the Packers

1234
00:54:55,880 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 2: and the forty nine ers both win and and you

1235
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 2: know it's it's bad because they say it's thirteen wins

1236
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: and you're not gonna get a buye. It's only happened

1237
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 2: one other time since two thousand and that ded to

1238
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 2: twenty eleven Saints, which might have been one of the

1239
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 2: best offenses of this century. And they're one of only

1240
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 2: two teams average six point nine yards per player more

1241
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 2: since two thousand and They went. They ended up winning

1242
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 2: their wildcard round, went Division round, played to forty nine

1243
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 2: ers Alex Smith and then a thriller. They lost thirty

1244
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,479
Speaker 2: six thirty two. They took the lead on a seventy

1245
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: yard Jimmy Graam touchdown pass after Alex Smith took the

1246
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 2: lead for the Niners on this huge run, and then

1247
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 2: Vernon Davis caught a touchdown pass and the final seconds

1248
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:36,959
Speaker 2: of the States went bye bye and the deep NFC.

1249
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 2: It's brutal if you don't get a bye, and they

1250
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 2: might not at thirteen to three, they're underdogs for it

1251
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 2: to happen. I can't back the Panthers, but I can't

1252
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 2: lay thirteen here. It's just a little inflated. So it's

1253
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 2: a complete passwory. But will rereer and this team is

1254
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 2: just bad right now.

1255
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know the Saints, I mean they have

1256
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 3: to play the Vikings. It just it has to happen.

1257
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 2: So yep.

1258
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, actually the exactly the way that Fate planned it.

1259
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 3: Let's go to those Packers. They are twelve and three.

1260
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 3: They are going to Detroit to play the three and

1261
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,720
Speaker 3: eleven three to eleven and one, excuse me, Detroit Lions.

1262
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,400
Speaker 3: Packers are laying twelve and a half fifty one percent

1263
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 3: of the bet sixty three percent of the money on

1264
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,399
Speaker 3: the lines, the total at forty three, with fifty three

1265
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:20,839
Speaker 3: percent of the bets seventy one percent of the money

1266
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 3: on the over.

1267
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I mean this is I think this is

1268
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:29,280
Speaker 2: identical to the last game we just mentioned that Lions

1269
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: are kind of a mess right now, down to their

1270
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 2: third string quarterback. Just like the Panthers playing for nothing

1271
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 2: against the Packers team playing for seating on the road,

1272
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: you can't back. I can't back the home team here,

1273
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: but because the line's a little inflated, so but I

1274
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 2: can't back through it.

1275
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 4: So this is an easy pass for me as well.

1276
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: I will say. I mean, look, the Packers also in

1277
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 2: a short week, if they're a big win inflated line,

1278
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 2: I just you know, if you have to play this,

1279
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 2: you got to take the points, especially if it gets

1280
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 2: a thirteen or fourteen. It's ugly. But I will say

1281
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 2: the Packers, they completely shut down the Vikings last week.

1282
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 2: And I know Cook didn't play, but Kenny Clark, who's

1283
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 2: getting himself paid over the past month, has been playing

1284
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 2: like a man possessed and he's now healthy and he's

1285
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 2: actually starting to they abuse Garrett Briberry, their center. He's

1286
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 2: actually starting to cause some push in the center in

1287
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 2: the middle of that green Bay defense, which they didn't

1288
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 2: have earlier in the season. Something to keep an eye on,

1289
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 2: but this is probably a pass. The line is is

1290
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 2: a little inflated, but tough, tough game to get involved in.

1291
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 2: I think if you green Bay ass motivation by the

1292
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 2: way they win, get a bye, and they win, Seattle wins,

1293
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 2: get the one seed, that's nuts.

1294
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 3: I think. I think the play probably the more I

1295
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 3: think about it, is the under because you think that

1296
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 3: Detroit is this bad defense and they are bad defense.

1297
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 3: But Packers Jamal Williams banged up. I could see them

1298
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:51,919
Speaker 3: kind of, you know, doing what they normally do, which

1299
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 3: is get out to a lead and kind of slow

1300
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 3: play the game. Play it really conservative. You don't want

1301
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 3: to get Rogers hurt. You don't want to get any

1302
00:57:57,480 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 3: you know, you don't want to get Jones hurt. You

1303
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 3: don't want to get if Williams is even back, you

1304
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 3: don't want to get him hurt. So, uh, this is

1305
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 3: a game where I think the Packers would kind of,

1306
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 3: you know, try to just get out.

1307
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 2: Just get out to get out of dodge of all

1308
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 2: win and.

1309
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 3: If the line is inflated, yeah, it's it's you know

1310
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 3: that essentially helps the under because it's just you know,

1311
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 3: the Packers probably not winning on at you know, on

1312
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 3: median by as big of a margin as the line implies.

1313
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, I under is the play. Now, let's go

1314
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:24,919
Speaker 3: to the Niners twelve and three at Seattle, eleven and four,

1315
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 3: Seahawks getting three points, Niners getting seventy eight percent of

1316
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:31,919
Speaker 3: the bets, eighty three percent of the money, the total

1317
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 3: at forty seven, fifty three percent of the bet, sixty

1318
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 3: three percent of the dollars on the over.

1319
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Kyle Shanning, I can't call running fourth

1320
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 2: to once another. Niners have to win this game to

1321
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 2: get the one seed. If not and the Packers win,

1322
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers are on the road, had to

1323
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: start the playoffs next weekend, either in Dallas or in Philly.

1324
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 2: So I mean this game to suth. Look, there's I

1325
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,439
Speaker 2: don't know who's playing running back, Marshawn.

1326
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 3: Lynch and Robert Turbin will join rookie Travis Homer in

1327
00:58:58,520 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 3: the back from Travis Homer.

1328
00:58:59,720 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 2: Yes, that's what they're gonna be lying on this week,

1329
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 2: because Lynch, I think they won for the playoffs. But

1330
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 2: my dad is to be ready. He was just he

1331
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:05,720
Speaker 2: was like handing out shots in the parking lot at

1332
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 2: the Raiders game of the weeks.

1333
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 3: That's how we play a normal he'd like run our

1334
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 3: test Henny a halftime good to go.

1335
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:13,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess yeah. I mean, they maybe

1336
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 2: don't use him this week. But look they lost, I mean,

1337
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 2: losing Chris Carson hurts. I mean, they were just so

1338
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 2: banged up at running back. They lost Melvin Gordon. I mean,

1339
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: and this team's we've called him. You know, they've been

1340
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 2: fraudulent all year long, and it showed last week. The

1341
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 2: biggest difference here is, you know, look it's Russell Wilson

1342
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:33,400
Speaker 2: at night in primetime at home. They're gonna have a shot,

1343
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,480
Speaker 2: and he's gonna give them a shot. But the biggest

1344
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: difference between this time and the time that they played

1345
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 2: last when the Seahawks beat the forty nine ers in

1346
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 2: overtime in San fran earlier this year, is that George

1347
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 2: Kittle is playing. And if you want to look at

1348
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 2: the weakness one of the weaknesses of many of the

1349
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 2: Seattle defense, it is number one against the run and

1350
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: number two over the middle of the field, which is

1351
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,360
Speaker 2: where Kittle lives. And look, if you look at the

1352
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, they're rush their rush offense. Let's just

1353
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 2: look at it from yards per play. They're averaging four

1354
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 2: point six yards per carry. It's ninth in the NFL.

1355
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 2: It's pretty good, top ten, but without Kittle. Two games

1356
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 2: without Kittle, one of them was against the Seahawks. But

1357
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 2: in those two games, and one of them was against

1358
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, not necessarily the best run defenses in the NFL.

1359
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 2: Without Kittle those two games, forty six carries for one

1360
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty one yards. That's two point six yards

1361
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 2: per carry. With Kittle four twenty eight for twenty fifty

1362
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 2: six four point eight that'd be top five in the NFL.

1363
01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 2: And Seattle's allowing four point eight yards per care that's

1364
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in the NFL. And no matter what advanced

1365
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 2: metric you look at, they're not great against the run.

1366
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 2: They also don't get a lot of pressure. But with Kittle,

1367
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 2: not only is he a great run blocker, he also

1368
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 2: demands the attention of your linebackers and your safeties, and

1369
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 2: you can't uses you can't dedicate as much attention to

1370
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 2: the run. So the forty nine ers should have a

1371
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 2: lot more success running the ball, and I don't know

1372
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 2: how good the Seahawks run defense is going to be.

1373
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 2: And that is the weakness of the forty nine ers defense.

1374
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,560
Speaker 2: It's not a glaring weakness, but they're so solid gets

1375
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 2: the pass because they get so much pressure and their

1376
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 2: secondary is solid and now healthy and they can just

1377
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 2: sit back. They don't blitz. They don't blitz, and they're

1378
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 2: one of the lowest blitzing teams in the NFL, and

1379
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 2: they're the highest pressure rate teams the NFL. Really helps

1380
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:14,480
Speaker 2: the secondary out that's pretty talented as well. So I

1381
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 2: think the forty nin Ers are the better team. They'll

1382
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball, I think a lot

1383
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 2: more successfully than the Seahawks end than the forty nine

1384
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 2: Ers did in the first meeting. I think that will

1385
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 2: ultimately be the difference. The wildcard is Russell Wilson magic,

1386
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:28,720
Speaker 2: but I think the forty nine ers find a way.

1387
01:01:29,040 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 3: Yeah. And speaking of Kittle, as we've done the past

1388
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 3: few weeks, we are running a new Fade Revel promotion

1389
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: with our friends at Points Bet Sportsbook. This week, our

1390
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 3: colleague Darren Revel is taking George Kittle over seventy and

1391
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards and points bet is boosting the

1392
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:49,439
Speaker 3: under seventy and a half to plus one hundred from

1393
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 3: minus one point fifteen. Personally, I think Darren is on

1394
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:54,960
Speaker 3: the right side. The Seahawks according to our friends at

1395
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 3: Football Outsiders giving up sixty seven point eight schedule adjusted

1396
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 3: yards per game two tight ends. That is the third

1397
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 3: most in the league. And we know George Kittle is

1398
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 3: one of the best tight ends in the league. But

1399
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 3: always fun to fade our guy Darren Ravel. Maybe make

1400
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:12,640
Speaker 3: him get think.

1401
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 2: We could just lose by like a half a point

1402
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 2: in like crazy fashion. It's it's pretty wild, So you know, if.

1403
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 3: You're interested in fading Revel, just follow the link in

1404
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 3: the episode description for more details. Let's get into the

1405
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 3: last game, and the forty nine Ers Seahawks is Sunday

1406
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 3: night football, but just save the Arizona Rams game four

1407
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 3: last because we don't actually have a line on it. Cardinals,

1408
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 3: of course five nine and one coming into this one

1409
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 3: against the eight and seven Rams eliminated from playoff contention,

1410
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 3: but we don't know if Kyra Murray is going to

1411
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,400
Speaker 3: go any thoughts on what you'd make the line stuck

1412
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 3: if Murray's in or Murray's out, or anything that could

1413
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 3: potentially help people that want to bet this one later

1414
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 3: in the week.

1415
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want to short some people. I will

1416
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 2: just say Pats a minus fifteen and a half against

1417
01:02:57,720 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. Also, I don't think we covered that one.

1418
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 2: Oh yeah there. Look, the Pats are playing to secure

1419
01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:07,480
Speaker 2: a two seed and a buye, which is so important

1420
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 2: for them. They need a buy They need to work

1421
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 2: out some kinks. They have their own problems. They don't

1422
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 2: want to be trying to play three games to get

1423
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl. I think they come out and

1424
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 2: drill the Dolphins. It's an awful matchup for the Dolphins.

1425
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 2: Dolphins can't run the ball. It's patrick That offense has

1426
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 2: been passing it. Well, well, you can't pass it against

1427
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 2: the Patriots, and the Dolphins are the worst defense in

1428
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 2: the NFL. I think the Pats come out of here

1429
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 2: focused and drill them. I mean, the first game was

1430
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 2: forty three to nothing in Miami. I don't know if

1431
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 2: it'll get that bad, but I'm thinking about laying the

1432
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 2: fifteen and a half. In regards to the Arizona La Ga,

1433
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't there's so many things to consider here.

1434
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 2: With Murray, I think Ramsey's also sitting for the Rams

1435
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 2: with an injury, so I don't know. I mean, I

1436
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 2: would probably make it around seven, which is where I

1437
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 2: think it will probably, I mean without Murray, maybe tennish,

1438
01:03:57,640 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be between seven and ten.

1439
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 2: Huntley came in last week, which didn't help my over

1440
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 2: bet in that game. I mean, they were, they had

1441
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 2: a lead, and they were playing to win. He was

1442
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 2: four of nine for forty nine yards. I imagine that

1443
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 2: they're going to try and you know, they can be

1444
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 2: able to run the ball much against the Rams. But

1445
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:18,600
Speaker 2: if Ramsey's out, I mean Hunley, I'll trust him to

1446
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:21,320
Speaker 2: throw the ball. And you know, if Hill and Ramsey

1447
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 2: are out, that's where you would be able to attack

1448
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 2: this Rams defense. And I don't know if Hunley can

1449
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 2: Ury could, So I think that the difference between the

1450
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 2: two in this game might be more substantial than some

1451
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 2: other games, but probably a clear stay away from me

1452
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 2: if unless the line is wildly off from where I

1453
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,480
Speaker 2: have it. But I got to take more into Huntley

1454
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 2: and who's who's in and who's out for the RAMS defense,

1455
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 2: because that will ultimately I think make the difference.

1456
01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's not a game that I think most

1457
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 3: people were too excited about anyway. So let's uh, let's

1458
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 3: wrap it up with our Survivor Pick of the week.

1459
01:04:57,520 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 3: One pick.

1460
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:01,360
Speaker 2: Chance to advance.

1461
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:07,320
Speaker 3: Survivor somehow managed to survive for sixteen weeks. I don't

1462
01:05:07,320 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 3: know how. I took the Broncos last week, coumbled a

1463
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:11,120
Speaker 3: little bit early on in that game, but ended up

1464
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:11,880
Speaker 3: beating the Lions.

1465
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:12,760
Speaker 6: This week.

1466
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 3: I would go, and we don't know the Lion in

1467
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 3: this game, but that doesn't matter for Survivor. Congrats. If

1468
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:22,120
Speaker 3: you're still alive in your Survivor pool, go to Rams here.

1469
01:05:22,480 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 3: You know Kyler Murray banged ut. Who knows what's gonna happen.

1470
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 3: Loved this matchup for the Rams. The Cardinals really don't

1471
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 3: get that much pressure. It's the home game for golf,

1472
01:05:33,640 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 3: a lot more comfortable there. Tyler Higgley's playing at an

1473
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 3: elite level right now at tight end, and of course

1474
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:39,919
Speaker 3: the Cardinals.

1475
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 2: Are the that's bad news. That's for the Cargos.

1476
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 3: Best matchup you can possibly have if you're an opposing

1477
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 3: offense for tight end. So this is a spot where

1478
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 3: the Rams came out and I think they won thirty

1479
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 3: four to seven on the road. I don't think that's

1480
01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 3: a coincidence. I think this is just a good matchup

1481
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 3: for the Rams. Lost season for them unfortunately not making

1482
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 3: it back to the playoffs to defend that Super Bowl

1483
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 3: tight you know nfcitle, But I think they comfortably handle

1484
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:06,320
Speaker 3: business even if Kaiwer does end up playing. So that's

1485
01:06:06,360 --> 01:06:08,200
Speaker 3: who I go and see if we can go seventeen

1486
01:06:08,240 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 3: to know here stuck any other picks if you didn't have,

1487
01:06:11,480 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 3: if you can't choose the Rams here, who are you

1488
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:14,400
Speaker 3: going with?

1489
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 2: Well? I mean you got to figure that most people

1490
01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:19,880
Speaker 2: have used most of the you know, good teams, and

1491
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 2: the problem with the week seventeen is you also have

1492
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:24,440
Speaker 2: some good teams that some decent teams that are not trying.

1493
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:27,880
Speaker 2: So you know a team that you definitely or probably

1494
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:30,360
Speaker 2: haven't used yet there's you might have used them once

1495
01:06:30,400 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 2: because they only have one win. But if you're still

1496
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 2: alive here, you probably haven't used the Bengals. And if

1497
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:38,600
Speaker 2: you're out of other teams, look at the Bengals. I

1498
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 2: don't think the Browns show up.

1499
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:41,480
Speaker 3: I mean, go out in style. If you're gonna go out,

1500
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 3: if you made it this far, but that wraps it

1501
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 3: up for another edition of the Action Network podcast, Week

1502
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:52,320
Speaker 3: seventeen NFL Betting. Addition, be sure to follow Stucky on

1503
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:55,000
Speaker 3: Twitter at Stucky two and me at Chris Raybond. You

1504
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:57,960
Speaker 3: can also follow us by the same handles on the

1505
01:06:58,040 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 3: Action Network app. You can see all our bets, you

1506
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 3: can track your own, so go download the app if

1507
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 3: you don't all ready have it for live odds, in

1508
01:07:07,440 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 3: game win probabilities, and again the ability to track every

1509
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 3: bet that you make. It's been a good year.

1510
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:16,320
Speaker 4: It's twenty twenty for playoff talk.

1511
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 3: We'll be back in twenty twenty. We'll be back next week.

1512
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:21,160
Speaker 3: We'll be talking the playoffs. We'll be talking all the trends.

1513
01:07:21,200 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 3: We'll keep our little contest going. Happy Holidays. We appreciate

1514
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:27,720
Speaker 3: you for if you are a longtime listener, for sticking

1515
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:30,440
Speaker 3: with us all season. If you're a new listener, keep

1516
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:32,880
Speaker 3: listening again. We'll be back for the playoffs to break

1517
01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 3: down these matchups a lot more in depth because we'll

1518
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:36,880
Speaker 3: have more time to spend on each one. Good luck,

1519
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:38,920
Speaker 3: Happy holidays, Let's get this money.

1520
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 2: Happy to hear, go back up, Go Raders.

1521
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:54,520
Speaker 7: Merrick ray Man shouted treatment nine. Merrick bet should it?

1522
01:07:54,680 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 2: Treatment brought me and down on the ring for Christmas.

1523
01:08:03,160 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 6: You feel like I'm in the or die. I'm feel

1524
01:08:10,400 --> 01:08:13,920
Speaker 6: mighty mind yo. I got muted on.

1525
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 2: My ready jourd. We're finished talking