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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from the test throwing out so spect I'm saying

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Speaker 2: it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: All we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 1: and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM. I'm Jill Glad. I'm joined with

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams each and every week use our research director

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Speaker 1: here at the Action Network, and we're going to dive

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Speaker 1: into all the crazy Sunday NFL action. For week nine,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about Sunday Night Football. Brandon Henderson is

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Speaker 1: going to have some hot reads later in the show.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Everson from Vegas Insider, he'll give us an update

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Speaker 1: on the sports books in Vegas and how they fared

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Speaker 1: this NFL Sunday. But before we talk about Sunday, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Monday Night football. Evan, let's talk about Chargers Jets.

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Speaker 1: Chargers around three and a half point favorites with an

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Speaker 1: over under a thirty nine and a half and they're.

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Speaker 2: On the road.

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest, Evan, I know this is going to

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Speaker 1: sound crazy, but I kind of like the Jets in

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Speaker 1: this spot as a home dog ag and everything that

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Speaker 1: we've seen from them offensively makes me kind of cringe.

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Speaker 1: But their past defense and their defense in general is

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Speaker 1: really why I get a little bit excited why I

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Speaker 1: think maybe they can keep it close, especially at that

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Speaker 1: three and a half where we have that extra hook

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Speaker 1: there for the field goal. But their past defense, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're six of the DVAWA, their first in pressure rate

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Speaker 1: at twenty nine point two percent in the NFL, and

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Speaker 1: thirty first in blitzing as well, which I think is

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Speaker 1: important to note because Herbert has historically carved up the

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Speaker 1: blitz in his career and I think the Jets they're

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Speaker 1: going to want to get in his face, but they

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Speaker 1: could sit back and coverage. That's kind of why for me.

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Speaker 1: From a betting standpoint, if I was going to betting aside,

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Speaker 1: i'd be looking at the Jets three and a half.

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Speaker 1: How I feel about the total, But from a touchdown

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Speaker 1: score perspective, I think Gerald Everett is probably a guy

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Speaker 1: we want to look for around plus three thirty. I

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Speaker 1: know people will probably say, what about Donald Parm. I

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Speaker 1: think Jerald Everett he snaps Pam more often than not.

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Speaker 1: We can get into that debate. But also another one

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Speaker 1: is justin Herbert interception around plus one twenty five. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I talk about the plus money interceptions pretty much exclusively

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Speaker 1: on social media about how much they're hitting this year.

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Speaker 1: But again right now, as I just mentioned, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: get in Herbert's face. He's gonna throw it a lot

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Speaker 1: in this game. Which is why I like Jerald Everett

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Speaker 1: in this spot because he had a touchdown in back

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Speaker 1: to back games leading into this game, and the Jets

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Speaker 1: haven't really been great versus tight ends this year. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: four touchdowns allowed to tight ends twenty seventh the dvo

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Speaker 1: way to the position. So Herbert I int and Gerald

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Speaker 1: Everett for a touchdown around plus three thirty is how

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Speaker 1: I like Monday Night football. Evan, please tell us what

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Speaker 1: do you like for this game?

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Speaker 2: There's actually a lot to breakdown here. Sometimes we talk

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Speaker 2: about the Monday Night football game is really not a

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Speaker 2: ton I think there's a bunch here, so not a

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Speaker 2: lot of market movement. It's been three and a half

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Speaker 2: and thirty nine and a half for a while. But

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Speaker 2: as we just watched Sunday Night football primetime unders is

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Speaker 2: something we'll talk about a little bit. But twenty one

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Speaker 2: and seven for the season, so that'll be a bit

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Speaker 2: of a storyline here. But also nine and one unders

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Speaker 2: on Monday Night football this year and Monday Night Football

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Speaker 2: unders fifty four to twenty eight and one since twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 2: so pretty decent margin. So quickly to touchdown scores for

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Speaker 2: a second, it's funny. We don't usually share notes, which

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Speaker 2: kind of you know, makes this fun. You say Everett,

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Speaker 2: I have parn Ham written down. He's my man.

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Speaker 1: And again it's one of those things that if I

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Speaker 1: bet Everett is going to score, so again I would

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Speaker 1: rather at least one of us hit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he's my guy. But you know, three tar

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Speaker 2: three plus targets three straight, you know, five last game.

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Speaker 2: I'm a fan. I like him, So that was my

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Speaker 2: either way, I was interested in the tight end. But

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Speaker 2: the other trend that's interesting here is obviously with Herbert.

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Speaker 2: This one's actually kind of crazy. So in night games,

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Speaker 2: twelve and three first half against the spread, three eleven

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Speaker 2: and one second half against the spread, so it's been

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Speaker 2: virtually a lock to have that first half second half

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Speaker 2: split with him. Actually in most games if you look

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Speaker 2: at the numbers, but in night games, it's actually very

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Speaker 2: much exaggerated. Listen the numbers say the Jets. I like

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Speaker 2: the Jets as well. Jets have won a few in

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Speaker 2: a row, and all their wins have required a fourth

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Speaker 2: quarter comeback from Zach Wilson. I feel like, as I

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Speaker 2: keep betting the Jets, it's asking, you know, for things

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Speaker 2: to keep coming true that I feel like will show

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Speaker 2: up as an l at some point soon.

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Speaker 1: But I do like mental health correct.

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Speaker 2: But I do feel like the number is right, So

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Speaker 2: that is the handicap currently.

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Speaker 1: No, I love that too. And again, I think the

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Speaker 1: other thing about this Chargers team is we know that

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Speaker 1: they the way that they finish games is never usually clean.

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Speaker 1: Sure you know that. So again, maybe even a double

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Speaker 1: result where you take Chargers first half money line and

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Speaker 1: then you take the Jets on the second half money line, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that might be the way to go. And even for interceptions,

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Speaker 1: one thing we're gonna hear from Brandon Erson here in

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Speaker 1: a little bit up for his hot red, but he's

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Speaker 1: actually laddering justin Herbert interception props. In this game, he's

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Speaker 1: taken one and two at plus six fifty. So again,

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Speaker 1: it's good to see that we're on the same mindset,

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Speaker 1: that we're all kind of coming to the same conclusion.

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Speaker 1: So that's Chargers Jets. Let's move to Sunday. Now, four

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Speaker 1: teams on by this week, the Broncos, the Lions, the Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers. Now before we talk about Sunday

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Speaker 1: Night Football, favorites go eleven and two straight up, nine

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Speaker 1: and four against the spread. Favorites now twenty three and

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Speaker 1: six straight up over the last two weeks. Even home

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Speaker 1: favorites home teams nine and three straight up, seven and

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Speaker 1: five against the spread. Home is over five hundred straight

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Speaker 1: up over the last five weeks. But Evan, please break

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Speaker 1: down the unders that continue to half in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely nuts ten and three so far in Week nine

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Speaker 2: entering Monday Night Football, that would mean eighty two fifty

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Speaker 2: two and one. So it's thirty games above five hundred

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Speaker 2: so far this season now right now, since about nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety which is a wildcard air which I'll refer to

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Speaker 2: a lot. It's in a battle with nineteen ninety one

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Speaker 2: for you know, best, second best, So you'll hear that

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Speaker 2: a lot from me, I think the interesting thing if

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Speaker 2: you dig a little bit of deeper second half unders

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Speaker 2: eighty one fifty three in one this season, and even

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Speaker 2: if you look last two years two thirty two, one,

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Speaker 2: seventy five and twelve, so pretty decent gap about sixty

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Speaker 2: games over the last two seasons eleven and two today

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Speaker 2: second half unders. So I really feel like first half

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Speaker 2: have been about even and second half you've seen some

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Speaker 2: clamp down, some lack of scoring, and about same percentage

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Speaker 2: full game in second half, which I find interesting.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting with the with the first half under trend

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Speaker 1: and the second half under trend that you're bringing up

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Speaker 1: here is that right now we're seeing teams like they

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Speaker 1: come off strong. We're going to talk about Sunday night

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Speaker 1: football in a second. We saw three touchdowns in the

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Speaker 1: opening five drives. We didn't really see much scoring for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the game. And again Bengals now probably

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Speaker 1: a little bit more of a public team. How did

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Speaker 1: the public do today?

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Speaker 3: Even?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, eight and five straight up and against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Nothing to write home about, but definitely a decent day.

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Speaker 2: But then you look for the season, seventy two fifty

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Speaker 2: three and five up about twelve hundred dollars for the

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Speaker 2: year on one hundred dollars wager. Now just for some context,

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Speaker 2: which kind of shows you how, you know, just unbelievable

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Speaker 2: it's been for the year that twelve hundred dollars profit

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Speaker 2: on that one hundred dollars bet for the public. If

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Speaker 2: you've bet every game this year, almost double second best

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Speaker 2: through nine weeks, second best for the public through this

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Speaker 2: through nine weeks, about six hundred dollars. Right now for

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Speaker 2: this year, we're at twelve hundred bucks. So it's been

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Speaker 2: a wild ride so far. And you know you're usually

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Speaker 2: about two three games over five hundred every week. Crazy stuff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so really at this point, the unders are just

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Speaker 1: too undeniable at this stage, like you almost have to

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Speaker 1: now consider it. I mean, even for Monday Night Football,

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Speaker 1: you know, the total was around forty and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing it at thirty nine and a half. Public

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Speaker 1: is still starting to bet the unders too, seeing those

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Speaker 1: trends happening. And one of the games that win under

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Speaker 1: was Bill's Bengals, which had a total of fifty and

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Speaker 1: a half and the Bengals win twenty four to eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Bengals do cover his home favorites is two and a half.

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Speaker 1: But again these primetime unders continue to come through. But

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Speaker 1: if you had just watched the first half, you would

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Speaker 1: have thought this game for sure was going over fifty

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Speaker 1: and a half. Because again, Joe Burrow, what we've been

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Speaker 1: talking about over the last couple of weeks, since this

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Speaker 1: Cardinals game and then against the Niners, he just continues

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Speaker 1: to build them what we've seen, and now the Bengals

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Speaker 1: are kind of a team that nobody really wants to

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Speaker 1: face them the AFC.

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Speaker 2: It's actually kind of fun, right, like the NFL rollercoaster

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Speaker 2: when you've done this for this many years and you

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Speaker 2: keep watching it year over year. Bengals start out as

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Speaker 2: a completely different team, and now you watch what ten touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: two picks, four game winning streak covered all four games.

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Speaker 2: Bengals just looked like a completely different squad. Burrows running

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Speaker 2: around as calf feels fine. Just a different team. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you want to talk like nuts and bolts from

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Speaker 2: like a betting perspective, Tonight that Buffalo challenge where they

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Speaker 2: lost the time out, you know probably could have you know,

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Speaker 2: wrote a few tweaks in the fourth quarter, possibly could

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Speaker 2: have done a few things there and then Obviously, the

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Speaker 2: injury to Micah Hyde was pretty bad when they were

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Speaker 2: trying to get the ball back, especially when you don't

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Speaker 2: have White. You know, Milano just too much to overcome,

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Speaker 2: you know, from Buffalo's side. A crazy stat and I

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Speaker 2: honestly still don't believe this is true, but I've checked

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Speaker 2: it now twice. So the Bills have now lost five

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Speaker 2: consecutive games against the spread. So not only is that

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Speaker 2: the longest streak for Josh Allen in his career at Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: but the Bills actually haven't done that as a franchise,

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Speaker 2: five straight losses against the spread since nineteen seventy six.

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Speaker 2: So four times happened, a lot never happened five. But

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Speaker 2: it's a bad skid right now for Buffalo and not great.

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Speaker 2: You face Denver next week at home on Monday Night Football,

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Speaker 2: then you're home against the Jets. You assume it's a

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Speaker 2: good bounce back, but tough. Oh.

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Speaker 1: The rest of their schedule is a gauntlet, man. They've

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Speaker 1: got the Broncos, Jets, then the Eagles and the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: and then the Cowboys and then the Chargers, and then

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Speaker 1: they ended off divisional games with the Patriots and the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, not an easy stretch for them here coming

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Speaker 1: up to make it even to the playoffs in the

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Speaker 1: AFC let alone, whether or not they could win the

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Speaker 1: AFC East. But again another interception from Josh Allen too.

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Speaker 1: That's the ninth of the year, so that's time for

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Speaker 1: the league league with Jimmy g I honestly think, man,

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Speaker 1: one of the first things that came to my mind

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Speaker 1: when I saw this game. Man, the refs were really

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Speaker 1: on one in this game, like that taunting call on

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen when when he's running for that touchdown, like

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Speaker 1: we see Tyreek Hill do the peace sign all the time,

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Speaker 1: but because he pointed the finger out him, oh, we

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Speaker 1: got to call fifteen. And then they call an intentional

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Speaker 1: grounding on him again at the end of the first half.

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Speaker 1: I thought that was just disgraceful. And then of course

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Speaker 1: you get Terry McCauley on the call. God forbid, he'll disagree,

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Speaker 1: you know, with the referees. It just it drives me crazy.

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Speaker 1: Those segments just obviously, I think have to be banned

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Speaker 1: for most primetime games. These former refs who come in

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Speaker 1: and basically just double down on what the ref did

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Speaker 1: on the field. Yeah, but there was just some costly

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Speaker 1: stuff in the second half of the bank for the Bills.

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Speaker 1: And we've talked about this now for a couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: where that urgency doesn't seem to kick in until it

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Speaker 1: almost is too late, you know. I mean Kincaid had

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Speaker 1: that costly turnover at the ten, you know. So it's

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Speaker 1: it's tough watch here for the Bills. I'm not ready

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Speaker 1: to count them out or anything like that, because again,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen and quarterbacks, they you know, that's the type

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Speaker 1: of thing that you want. But again, the injuries are

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Speaker 1: starting to pile up on that defense, They're continuing to

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Speaker 1: make mistakes, and again the schedule coming up, it definitely

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Speaker 1: seems like it's going to be a wildcard stretch. Now

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills. I want to talk about Cowboys Eagles.

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Speaker 1: So Cowboys lose in heartbreaking fashion. Now I'm going to

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Speaker 1: talk right now as a biased Cowboys fan, But really

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Speaker 1: what I'm trying to do is lend you to the

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Speaker 1: years of what the POB would be as a Cowboys

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Speaker 1: better because the Cowboys blew this game over and over again.

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Speaker 1: They had plenty of chances. Just pretend again that I'm

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Speaker 1: a plus three Cowboys better here in this spot because

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Speaker 1: they had first and five from the ten yard line

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Speaker 1: with thirty seconds to go, they can't convert. Dak then

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Speaker 1: goes out of bounds on the two point conversion. That

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Speaker 1: is called good on the field, but steps out of

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Speaker 1: bounds would have made it twenty eight to twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Instead it's twenty eight to twenty three. So now the

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Speaker 1: cover is out of the way, like there's no way

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Speaker 1: that you're gonna at least get a push in this spot.

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Speaker 1: And it just blows my mind that the Cowboys could

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Speaker 1: not put this into the end zone with so many

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Speaker 1: chances in the fourth quarter. And now Jalen Hurts is

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Speaker 1: sixteen six and one against the spread at home with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles as a starter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the cover probably came down to that play,

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Speaker 2: but a lot happened in the game. Listen, both teams

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Speaker 2: played really well. Dak played well, Hurts played well. The

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Speaker 2: one thing I'll say about Hurts, and I think we've

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Speaker 2: now seen this two or three straight weeks, he looks hurt,

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Speaker 2: like he's hobbling around a lot. He's finishing all the games.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you look at the numbers, everything looks pretty good, right,

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Speaker 2: like if you weren't watching the games, there'd be nothing

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Speaker 2: to worry about. But he just doesn't seem like the

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Speaker 2: same player. I'd have to check. I didn't even check

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Speaker 2: his rushing stats from today, but it just seems like

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Speaker 2: he's hobbling around there out there. So obviously great that

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Speaker 2: they have a bye, but holy mackerel, there's and we've

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Speaker 2: talked about this. Their schedule coming up Casey, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas,

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Speaker 2: Seattle just pretty brutal. So rest up and hopefully we see,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe a different Hurts with a bit of

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Speaker 2: a hopp in his step, you know, basically from what

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Speaker 2: we've seen today. Though Cowboys have been great off a loss,

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Speaker 2: not so great after not you know, without it. So

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Speaker 2: six and zero against the spread off a loss, last

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Speaker 2: two seasons, five and nine now against the spread when

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Speaker 2: they're off a win. So just been kind of a

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Speaker 2: roller coaster. And that's what you've got with McCarthy especially.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that situation I fought I find too evan

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Speaker 1: with this Cowboys team. If they don't get like a lead,

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Speaker 1: or at least a big lead, or if they're not

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Speaker 1: ahead of the count in a sense, like basically the

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Speaker 1: Eagles were rarely in third and long or like second

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Speaker 1: and fifteen where the Eagle or the Cowboy pressure can

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Speaker 1: then move in on them. Instead, they're always in third

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Speaker 1: and short, you know, second and two kind of thing,

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Speaker 1: and they're just able to convert. And you know, that

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Speaker 1: was kind of one of the things that I was

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Speaker 1: expecting with this Cowboys team, is that if they can't

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Speaker 1: get pressure, their defense can get exposed. And you know

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Speaker 1: that passing defense has just not been the same without

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Speaker 1: Treyvon Diggs. Stefan Gilmore can do the best he can,

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Speaker 1: but again, there's not much you could do when you

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Speaker 1: have Devonte Smith and aj Brown just kind of running

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Speaker 1: it down your throat. But I was actually really surprised

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Speaker 1: with even though the Eagles have a direct weakness over

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Speaker 1: the middle because their ranked last and DVOWA versus tight

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Speaker 1: ends this year. You know, they gave up that early

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Speaker 1: touchdown to Jake Ferguson, and then of course the screw

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Speaker 1: maker touchdown that looked like a touchdown initially, but obviously

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Speaker 1: his knee is down just before the line. So again

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Speaker 1: a late fourth and one that just doesn't convert. So

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Speaker 1: there was just a lot of I don't want to

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Speaker 1: call it bad luck because I feel like the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: create their own bad luck. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: it definitely felt like a game that the Cowboys gave

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Speaker 1: away that they could have won in this spot. So

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Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see if the Eagles, if they're

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Speaker 1: able to get through that schedule the next time they

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Speaker 1: play in late December in Dallas, if they're even gonna

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Speaker 1: be fielding a whole team, because they might have the

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Speaker 1: NFC at least the NFC East Division locked up. They've

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Speaker 1: got a two game lead right now, but the NFC

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Speaker 1: Conference as well looking pretty solid in that spot. Buccaneers Texans.

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Speaker 1: So Texans win thirty nine to thirty seven. Total goes

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Speaker 1: over and the Texans do not cover, though, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about this. There's a lot to cover with

331
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Speaker 1: this game. The total does go over forty and a half,

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Speaker 1: but this game is about c J. Stroud.

333
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Speaker 2: So c J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud is now four to one against the spread as

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Speaker 1: an underdog and zero and three against the spread as

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Speaker 1: a favorite. So again keep that in mind because when

337
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Speaker 1: he's gonna be an underdog, I'm going to want to

338
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Speaker 1: bet him because he was on real in this game.

339
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Speaker 1: Four hundred and seventy passing yards, five touchdowns, rookie record

340
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Speaker 1: for passing yards in a game. And I think the

341
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Speaker 1: most wild thing about this game was that there was

342
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Speaker 1: no kicker for the Texans in the entire second half,

343
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Speaker 1: and so every time that they scored a touchdown, they

344
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Speaker 1: had to either go for two or then you saw

345
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Speaker 1: dari ugban Wale kick the field goal. He's the first

346
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Speaker 1: string running back, first dog kicker with a field goal

347
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Speaker 1: in an NFL game since two thousand and four.

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Speaker 2: I was trying to think between this game and the

349
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Speaker 2: next game we're going to talk about after this, which

350
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Speaker 2: is Vikings Falcons, which one had like more lunacy to

351
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Speaker 2: it basically, because both these games just really just had everything.

352
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Speaker 2: But I think having Dara kick really made this you know,

353
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Speaker 2: took this game over the edge. Yeah, I think absolutely.

354
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Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing about this game though, is

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Speaker 2: probably Stroud, right and his performance for the season. Fourteen touchdowns, now,

356
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Speaker 2: one interception. I want this up. I looked this up.

357
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Speaker 2: So fourteen touchdowns, he's got twenty two, one hundred passing

358
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Speaker 2: yards through eight starts all time. That's Stroud, Mahomes and Herbert.

359
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Speaker 2: It's not a bad list. That's you know, pretty impressive,

360
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Speaker 2: and you talked about some of his accomplishments as well,

361
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Speaker 2: with the rookie passing game record, I mean unreal and

362
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Speaker 2: that one interception. I mean, I don't mean to be mean,

363
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Speaker 2: and you know I might have saved this for later,

364
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 2: but brace Young had three picks just today. Strouds thrown

365
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Speaker 2: one all year. I mean that is I mean, this

366
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Speaker 2: kid has been unreal and really put the Texans in

367
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Speaker 2: a position to win every week. I mean they have

368
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Speaker 2: four wins already, right, they've had four. You know, four

369
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Speaker 2: has been there Max, I think over the last three

370
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Speaker 2: or four years.

371
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Speaker 1: And they're very, very live in that AFC South Division.

372
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Speaker 1: Because you've heard me flip flop on Jacksonville probably a

373
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Speaker 1: couple of times already this season. I'm still not a

374
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Speaker 1: full believer in them, but yeah, this game again, I

375
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Speaker 1: just want to issue condolences to anybody who did have

376
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Speaker 1: Texans minus two and a half because that that feels

377
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Speaker 1: like a bad beat. Like you don't go into a

378
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Speaker 1: game thinking that the team that you're backing their kickers

379
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 1: all of a sudden just not going to play in

380
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 1: the second half, and that not only that, that you

381
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 1: might still get a kick from another random running back

382
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: and then just they had it and then they kneeled.

383
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 1: They scored that touchdown the goal ahead, and then c J.

384
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Speaker 1: Stroud kneels. So I think that was the other thing too,

385
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: is I think people were maybe hoping or you know,

386
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 1: in that spot. But yeah, I think at this stage too,

387
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:27,920
Speaker 1: I don't think there's much of a debate. I don't

388
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 1: even know if he has to play another game for

389
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 1: me to say that, I think CJ. Stroud is the

390
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: offensive rookie of the year. I think you could just

391
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 1: give it to him. Now. Sure, you could say maybe

392
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: Bejon has a great second half, or you know, you

393
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 1: could say that Will Levis all of a sudden gets hot,

394
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 1: But right now, CJ. Stroud, I mean, I don't think

395
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: it's really that hard of the debate to say that

396
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: he's a top ten quarterback in the NFL. Right now.

397
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 2: I thought I saw him, you know, maus five hundred

398
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 2: range to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year in

399
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 2: terms of odds, but that could change. But yeah, I agree.

400
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 2: I don't know if anyone, I mean, based off the

401
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 2: numbers we just discussed, I'm not sure anyone is in

402
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,199
Speaker 2: his clubhouse right now. Not to pour a little bit

403
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 2: of more salt on the wound, but this fun stat

404
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 2: that I looked up, which is just points to the

405
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 2: fact that the Texans won but didn't cover teams with

406
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: five plus passing touchdowns in a game two and one,

407
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 2: two and thirteen straight up ninety three, sixteen and six

408
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,959
Speaker 2: against the spread last twenty years, eighty five percent cover eight. Obviously,

409
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: the Texans don't cover the spread today, So kind of

410
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 2: just a tough one at the end there, but pretty crazy.

411
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't. Obviously it's easy for me to say

412
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: after the fact of a I don't worry about it,

413
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,360
Speaker 1: but I think you'll have plenty more opportunities to bet

414
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 1: on Stroud here coming up this season in some very

415
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 1: actionable spots Vikings Falcons, This one again a wild ending

416
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: Vikings win thirty one to twenty eight total does go over.

417
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: The Falcons is three and a half point home favorites

418
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 1: lose outright, and the over under at thirty seven and

419
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: a half easily goes over. And you could think most

420
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 1: of it to Josh Dobbs, who I think deserves a medal,

421
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 1: like he's a hero man coming in on five day notice.

422
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 1: And you know when we talked about the Cardinals at

423
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: all for the first few weeks and talk about how

424
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: they were frisky, they were frisky because of Josh Dobbs

425
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: and because of his scrambling ability. Like he won them

426
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 1: this game today with his legs. Scores the game winning

427
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: touchdown with twenty seconds to go for a pass to

428
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 1: Brandon Powell, and he ran one in just a possession. Earlier,

429
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: the Falcons one in seven ats this year, Man, five

430
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 1: and fifteen ats in the last twenty games. I've got

431
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 1: some thoughts on Arthur Smith, But what did you think

432
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: of this game?

433
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 2: Man? There's actually a lot to unpack here. So from

434
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: the Vikings point of view, clap like, I think it's

435
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: it's actually worth at clapping like thinking about the performance. Right,

436
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 2: So twenty five of thirty when you look at both

437
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 2: quarterbacks combined, two seventeen two passing touchdowns, no interceptions, I mean,

438
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: and if you look on the ground, two nine to

439
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 2: seventy seven in a touchdown, Uh, pretty impressive. So I mean,

440
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: even staying in this game and doing what they had

441
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 2: to do between the two of them, really really well done.

442
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: Now when you think about Dobbs having to teach his

443
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 2: offensive line cadence and like trying to figure that out

444
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: kind of on the fly, and the insane some of

445
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 2: them absolutely insane. Now, I will say this now, there

446
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: might be something to this if Dobbs keeps the starting

447
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: role going forward. But we did see like a bit

448
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: of a momentum, a bit of an initial jump with

449
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: the Cardinals with Dobbs in the lineup, and then all

450
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: of a sudden, the roller coaster came back down. So

451
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 2: I'm trying to figure out. You know, Minnesota plays New

452
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: Orleans this week, then they go to Denver on Sunday

453
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 2: night football. Well, we're gonna have to see how this

454
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 2: Minnesota team. I mean, right now, I believe are they are?

455
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 2: They over five, over five hundred. They might be five

456
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 2: hundred right now. They're five and four, so over five

457
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: hundred on a run. They honestly could be in the

458
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,719
Speaker 2: wildcard hunt or they are right now. So I'm just worried.

459
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: And they actually might be a good fade in my opinion,

460
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 2: if Dobbs continued to do what he did in Arizona

461
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: after a start or too.

462
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: So we'll see, yeah, and it should be it should

463
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: be interesting too. How how sportsbooks price him because and

464
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: the Vikings because you know you've got Justin Jefferson coming

465
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: back here soon as well. That's gonna be another weapon

466
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: for them. Jordan Addison still looks fantastic. This is a

467
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: team that is very much in a position to make

468
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: a wildcard push in the NFC, because I'll be honest,

469
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: after you get passed the two or three teams in

470
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: the NFC, it starts to become very mid as you go,

471
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: and it gets even worse once you get passed probably

472
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: the fifth team in the NFC. All Right, I gotta

473
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: I got a bone to pick here because all right,

474
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: so before we start, you be Robinson in fantasy I do.

475
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: Actually, so I'm in one fantasy league. I have Bjon

476
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: Robinson and it is what it is. It's life, all right.

477
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna say it for you. And again I

478
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: don't really like calling for people's jobs, but sure, Arthur Smith,

479
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: I think needs to be fired.

480
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like how.

481
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: You're using b Jon Robinson is roster malpractice at this point,

482
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,959
Speaker 1: Like how do you get three goal line appearances? Bijon

483
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 1: doesn't get a carry or target? Now tyler Ow's year scored,

484
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: but you're seeing John Hu Smith draws. I just cannot

485
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: get it out of my head that you have now

486
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: Taylor Heinike in a quarterback. You solved, in my opinion,

487
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: your quarterback issue, even though Heinike didn't look great today,

488
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: but much better than what Richard was putting out there

489
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: on the field. And then you spend an eighth pick

490
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 1: on Bjon Robinson and then you're still handing it off

491
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 1: to Cardero Patterson and Tyler Now's year. I just don't

492
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: get it. And if I spent the first round pick

493
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 1: on be Jean Robinson in fantasy, which I'm assuming you did,

494
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: I would be livid right now about this.

495
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 2: My thing is this as well. You look at some

496
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: of these stats. So Atlanta two and sixteen against a

497
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 2: first half spread in the last eighteen games. Okay, that's

498
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 2: just one. The one that's even worse, in my opinion,

499
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,719
Speaker 2: he's six and fifteen against the spread at home. Arthur Smith, Like,

500
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: it's just you get to a point where you start

501
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: to figure out that he has all this talent around him,

502
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: right Like, if you started to give this amount of

503
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: talent on offense and they upgraded their defense in the offseason,

504
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 2: they just can't win these games. Sometimes it's kind of embarrassing.

505
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: So I mean, going forward, They're at Arizona next week.

506
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 2: I'm not even sure I want to mess with that game,

507
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: just because I'm not even sure what I'm getting on

508
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 2: either side. And then I'm relying on Atlanta as a favorite.

509
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 2: It's just not pretty well.

510
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,479
Speaker 1: If it's up to me, I'd be giving Josh Dobbs

511
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: NFC Player of the Week for sure. More you saw there,

512
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: So that's all I really got to say. I'm hoping

513
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: Josh Dobbs and the Vikings can kind of continue this momentum.

514
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: It was a great feel good story, but I'm I'm

515
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 1: tired of watching the Falcons. I'm tired of watching this

516
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith show. And I think if you have a

517
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: Bjon Robinson Rookie of the Year ticket, like we just

518
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: talked about CJ. Stroud, I'm not saying to tear it up,

519
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: but it's pretty much there at this stage. The Action

520
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: Network podcast is presented by bet MGM used bonus code

521
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522
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523
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Speaker 1: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

524
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

525
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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

526
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Now it's time

527
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

528
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: what do you have us looking for for early Week ten? Lines?

529
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: BO sevent day on ice rights, ice cream, pusu A

530
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 2: Radars nineteen seven nineteen hoil sol Traight.

531
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 4: All right, let's do the Week ten hot read. Second

532
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 4: half of the season. We're two and oh today we

533
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 4: got that Chiefs win this morning. Hit the Thursday night

534
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,159
Speaker 4: under hot read is now eleven and five on the season.

535
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 4: We're gonna go back to where we hit last week

536
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 4: on the Thursday under to the Steelers. I don't take

537
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 4: the Steelers minus two and a half against the Packers

538
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 4: this week back to the well mice two and a

539
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 4: half Steelers are at home. That basically is pricing these

540
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 4: teams as equals on a neutro field. I don't buy it.

541
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: There's gonna be a time to fade Pittsburgh that we

542
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 4: all know they're not as good as their five and

543
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 4: three record, but this is not that time. The Steelers

544
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 4: are better than the Packers. Neither offense is good. We

545
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 4: know that Packers, though twenty points, are below in six

546
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 4: straight games now since that opener against the Bears when

547
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 4: they kind of threw us off the scent right, seventeen

548
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 4: and a half points a game. Since that opener, they

549
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 4: beat the Rams. Hooray, they beat Brett Rippen. It was

550
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 4: ten to three with nine minutes left in that game.

551
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 4: Like you're playing a backup quarterback and a bad defense

552
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 4: and you have ten points. Doesn't really say a whole

553
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 4: lot for the Packers. Green Bay actually entered this weekend

554
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 4: thirty first in DVA defensively and overall over the last month.

555
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 4: So this is not a hot team. They kind of

556
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 4: looked the part today. They just happened to play at

557
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: backup quarterback.

558
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh.

559
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 4: Weirdly enough, though, it doesn't feel like it entered the

560
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 4: weekend top six offense and defense and overall by DVA

561
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 4: over the last month. I don't understand it either. I

562
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 4: don't know what's happening, But we do know one thing.

563
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 4: The defense is good, right, we know Pittsburgh's defense is good.

564
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 4: That's the one sure thing on the field, especially against

565
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: Jordan Love on the road. Pittsburgh always plays better at home.

566
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 4: The numbers are much better home here, So I like

567
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: the Steelers. Packers defense is beatable. They're rough against wide

568
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 4: receiver ones, so I think George Pickens is in for

569
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 4: a big day. That's like the one thing the Steelers

570
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 4: offense does well. Pittsburgh is the better team. So I

571
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 4: would put this easily above the key number. I have

572
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 4: it at least at Pittsburgh minus four. We're gonna minus

573
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 4: two and a half here. Grab that before the key

574
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 4: number if you can, and another one right on the

575
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 4: cusp of a key number. I know it's not gonna

576
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 4: feel great after we watched today, but give me the

577
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: Seahawks minus five and a half home against the Commanders. Look,

578
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 4: they can't overreact, right, You can't overreact to the blowout

579
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 4: loss the Seattle had today to Baltimore. We kind of

580
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,719
Speaker 4: saw it coming. It's a bad matchup, and the Ravens

581
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 4: are just really good. The Seahawks are not at that level,

582
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 4: but they're still way better than the Commanders. The Commanders

583
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 4: they're four and five. Now, this is a team I

584
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 4: want to fade. This is a great spot for them.

585
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 4: They basically played the Patriots even today. They went on

586
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 4: laid downs and they kind of survived at the end

587
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 4: of the game. It's not that exciting a result. So

588
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 4: neither a team really had a great weekend. But don't

589
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 4: forget what happened during the week. Washington traded away both

590
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 4: of their elite pass rushers, so we know what direction

591
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 4: they're heading. Seattle traded for a great pass rusher, Leonard Williams,

592
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 4: So this is a team that's gonna win in the trenches.

593
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 4: I think both ways. Seattle's line can win against Washington

594
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 4: missing their guys now, and Seattle pass rush is gonna

595
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 4: get home. They're gonna sack Sam Howell. We know that

596
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 4: he eats sacks week after a week. Washington just not

597
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 4: very good. Their bottom ten offense and defense by DVAA.

598
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 4: Seattle is a top ten team. Well they were coming

599
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 4: to Sunday. They won't be after what Baltimore just did.

600
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 4: But they're a good team. They're top half of the

601
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 4: league on offense and defense and special teams. Washington has

602
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 4: been the worst defense in football over the last month,

603
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 4: and honestly I think this could be a get right

604
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 4: spot for Seattle. Shane Waldron's offense has been really good

605
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 4: this season. Washington's corners are beatable, and now you got

606
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 4: to face DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jackson Smith and Jigba.

607
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 4: Really Seattle's move the ball pretty well. The one thing

608
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 4: they've struggled with is in those key moments third down,

609
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 4: red zone. Those are kind of random overtime, and this

610
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 4: could be the sort of game where they convert a

611
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 4: couple of those, they get right, put up a big number,

612
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 4: and they might do to Washington what just happened to

613
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 4: them today by Baltimore. So I think this could get

614
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 4: away from Washington. All about one of their losses have

615
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: failed to cover this number, all about one of Seattle's

616
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: wins have covered this number. And then a couple of

617
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 4: trends for you here. You know we all have the

618
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 4: trends Pete Carroll after a loss forty seven, twenty nine

619
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 4: and four against the spread sixty two percent, and you're

620
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: gonna love this one. Teams like Seattle that have won

621
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 4: at least sixty percent of their games after a twenty

622
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 4: point or more loss sixty eight percent against the spread,

623
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 4: and if you narrow that just to week ten to fifteen.

624
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: So who are the teams we know are good guys.

625
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 4: We know Seattle is good, we know they're playing good football.

626
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 4: They just didn't today. Teams with a sixty plus win

627
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 4: percentage after twenty point loss just in those week ten

628
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 4: to fifteen thirty nine and six against the spread in

629
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 4: the last couple decades, eighty seven percent rate. See how's

630
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 4: going to add to that number? So I think there's

631
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 4: blow up potential here. I want to grab this before

632
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,959
Speaker 4: the key number six minus five and a half if

633
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 4: you can, and I think honestly this should be above seven.

634
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: I'll probably play some alternates as well and look for

635
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 4: a possible blowout here. So Seattle Seahawks minus five and

636
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 4: a half, Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half. That

637
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 4: is your Week ten hot read. Thank you, Brandon.

638
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: All Right, Evan, let's move now to Dolphins Chiefs first

639
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: game in Frankfurt in Germany and a game that we

640
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: expected probably some offensive fireworks, but the Chiefs win twenty

641
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: one to fourteen, and the Dolphins don't really hold up

642
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: their end of the bargain on this side, and the

643
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: total goes under fifty the Chiefs win as minus one

644
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, And we talk about this

645
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: a lot on the pod, but Patrick Mahomes, this is

646
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: the sweet spot for him when he's favored by three

647
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: or less or eve he's an underdog nineteen six and

648
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: one against the spread. You don't get it very often,

649
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: but when you see it in the spot, it's almost

650
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: a hammer play. And now the Dolphins, we've talked about

651
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: this before, about them whether or not how they do

652
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 1: against teams that are good, how they're doing against teams

653
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: against bad teams. Since twenty twenty one, the Dolphins are

654
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: four and eleven straight up versus teams above five hundred,

655
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: and they're sixteen to seven straight up versus teams below

656
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: five hundred. So I think it's pretty clear now since

657
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: the start of twenty one that the Dolphins just are

658
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: not in that tier yet.

659
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: Just crazy to follow up on that point, that last

660
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: point you made. Since the Dolphins' last win against a

661
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 2: team over five hundred, which is the Bills, I believe

662
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 2: in Week three last year, only one other team doesn't

663
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: have a win against an over five hundred opponent. That

664
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: would be the Bears, who are zero to nine straight

665
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: up now the dollars zero to seven, So yeah, it's

666
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: been a decent bad run, but I think we should

667
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 2: start this. This game to me unfortunate a bit to

668
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: be at nine thirty in the morning, because probably was

669
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 2: the game of the day in a sense, because even

670
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: if you look before kickoff, and I'm not sure you

671
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 2: noticed this, but at a few books, Miami did close

672
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 2: as a favorite, so there was some very very tool them. Yeah,

673
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 2: there was some heavy, heavy Dolphins money that came in late.

674
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 2: And then I don't know if you noticed, but twenty

675
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:38,720
Speaker 2: one nothing Chiefs was the halftime score. So the Chiefs

676
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 2: showing up on Friday, Miami being there on Tuesday, which

677
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: even me myself puts some stock into looks like absolutely

678
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 2: meant nothing. So good to know that you know that

679
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 2: that isn't you know? And even Andy Reid had discussed

680
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: in his press conferences that that was something that you know,

681
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: he had done in the past and it had worked

682
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 2: for him, so that worked. But to me, the interesting

683
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: thing and kind of the way to explain what I've

684
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 2: seen from Kansas City, which is actually kind of funny.

685
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 2: I feel like they have a lot of New England

686
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 2: in them, Like if you look at the box score today,

687
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 2: nine people had a reception, eleven targets, good defense, they

688
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: haven't missed a kick all year, extra points or field goals.

689
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: All feels like New England. Just a little bit of

690
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 2: like the way that Belichick had won those games, Like

691
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: the good defense. It's an odd comparison, but I felt

692
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 2: it when I watched Mahomes just try to figure it

693
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 2: out and their defense kind of hold on. Also, it

694
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: was kind of funny that they beat another good as

695
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 2: East team, So but just a comparison, I looked at.

696
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think you got to give credit to

697
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: Miami's defense because even though they did kind of give

698
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: up those early scores, if you look at the box score,

699
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: I mean they helped Mahomes below two hundred yards passing.

700
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: He had a fumble, and really this has been the

701
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: trend for Patrick Mahomes all year. His accuracy is but

702
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: his passing stats across the board are all down yards

703
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 1: per game, passing touchdowns. But we've talked about this with

704
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: a lot of teams. They don't come out with urgency

705
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: in the first half and two and the Dolphins play

706
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: with no urgency and they were held scoreless in the

707
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: first time in the Mike McDaniel era, they haven't never

708
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 1: been held scoreless in the first half, so I thought

709
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: that was really got to give credit to that Chiefs defense,

710
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: and I mean the Dolphins, they were getting some luck

711
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 1: in the second half. They got two fumbles, there's a

712
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 1: pretty questionable personal foul call that led to a touchdown

713
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: as well. But now the Dolphins coming back home next week,

714
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 1: got to get right spot versus the Raiders. And I

715
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: mean if Aidan O'Connell and that Raiders team is coming

716
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 1: into Miami, I would be shocked if this line closes

717
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: below seventeen by the time we get to kickoff, just

718
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: because of what we've seen from the Dolphins at home.

719
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 1: And you know they're averaging over like thirty five points

720
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: per home game at this stage, right, So in this

721
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 1: Raiders team, yes, they beat up on the Giants, talk

722
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: about that game later, but nothing really impressive about this

723
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: Raiders team. And again, uh, they would be right now,

724
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: I believe at five hundred. So it should be interesting

725
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 1: actually with that, how the Dolphins do against teams that

726
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: are above five hundred to blow five hundred.

727
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the other thing that stinks for Miami

728
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: and I think this is what makes it probably even

729
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 2: a better spot in that home spot, and obviously going

730
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 2: to be a really large spread they're gonna have, like

731
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: all this time, they're gonna have a buy. It's a

732
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 2: lot of time to wait too so but awful loss,

733
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be a good one. They'll probably come

734
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: out really hot.

735
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Chiefs look pretty solid right now, the

736
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: fact that they're they're coming back home, but they got

737
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 1: to buy and then they got the Eagles coming to

738
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: Arrowhead and week eleven and the remainder of their schedule

739
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 1: isn't too tough, so very much in the driver's seat

740
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: to get the one seed in the AFC at this stage.

741
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: Seahawks Ravens lamar again with another win over the NFC.

742
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: The Ravens win thirty three. The Ravens do covers five

743
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, but the total does go

744
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: under a forty four and a half. But I wanted

745
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: to talk more about that NFC record because that's two

746
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 1: games in a row now where we've seen this kind

747
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: of touted NFC team like the Lions. Seahawks were getting

748
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 1: some late love as well. They just could throw out

749
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: a complete dud in Baltimore.

750
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: Baltimore looks ridiculously dominant. I think they're the team right

751
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 2: now based off of how their offense is playing. Then

752
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 2: you might say has the most complete package, especially with

753
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 2: Tucker as well. So that's level one for me. When

754
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: you go back to the NFC, note, they do play

755
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 2: the Rams week fourteen at home, and then they're at

756
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: San Francisco in Week six game. So either way, even

757
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: if they say they lost both of those games or

758
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 2: they went one and one, I think it's actually a

759
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 2: pretty decent advantage. Even with the two weeks to prep

760
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,800
Speaker 2: for Baltimore in a super Bowl against but probably potentially

761
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 2: a team that hasn't faced them this year. So I

762
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 2: do think there probably is something to that to having

763
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 2: to prepare for Lamar. I will say this, Baltimore has one,

764
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 2: I guess the four in a row, but looking at

765
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: the schedule ahead ain't easy. And I'll just rattle off

766
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 2: some teams here, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chargers, Rams, Jaguars, Niners, Dolphins, Steelers,

767
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 2: no cupcakes there, So I mean it's so you know,

768
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: it's also crazy. And one other note I was going

769
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 2: to add here, Baltimore at home. You know we've been

770
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 2: talking about Cleveland's defense. Baltimore at home, their defense, it's

771
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 2: been ridiculously dominant. Listen to these home numbers allowed for

772
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 2: the three six sixteen twenty two is minshew, but nine

773
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: sixteen nine three that's at home this year in last year,

774
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 2: so crazy dominant.

775
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: But I do think though, with the Browns and Bengals

776
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: on deck, especially with how they've looked, they're kind of

777
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: in a spot right now where if they go to

778
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: and Ono in those games, they could probably have the

779
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: AFC North locked up before December, right And the one

780
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: thing I will say, I just want to say this

781
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 1: about the Seahawks. I know the box score won't say it,

782
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 1: but I feel the Seahawks defense they played well. They

783
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: just got zero support from their offense. Like Geno Smith

784
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: kind of cost them the game. Interception and a fumble

785
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: both were in Ravens territory. Both put the Ravens in

786
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 1: short field positions as well, like later on in the game.

787
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 1: I will say the one positive note though, for I

788
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: wanted to mention about the Ravens and why you knew

789
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: that it was all clicking on all cylinders. Odell Beckham Junior.

790
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 1: It was his birthday today and he caught a touchdown

791
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: on his birthday, So for all those people who like

792
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: to play those trends of betting on a touchdown score

793
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 1: when it's his birthday, Odell Beckham I actually mentioned that

794
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 1: on the Best Bets on Thursday, so I'm hoping that

795
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: somebody might have tailed that one as well. Bears Saints

796
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 1: Saints win twenty four to seventeen. Saints do not cover

797
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: as ten and a half point favorites, but the total

798
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 1: does go under of forty two and a half, just

799
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: barely two. Now the Bears again, it's a fun ride

800
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: with Tyson beageing and this first half he looked pretty good,

801
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: but he turned into a pumpkin in the second half,

802
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,959
Speaker 1: had three receptions and a fumble. And the Bears, whether

803
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: it's Justin Fields or Tyson basion, they're one and eight

804
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: straight up in their last nine row games and two

805
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 1: and twelve strip up in their last fourteen road games overall.

806
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, if you were one of the three people

807
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 2: who had the Bears here, Chicago didn't score, maybe yeah,

808
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 2: Chicago didn't score in the fourth quarter and covered the spread.

809
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 2: They also lost the turnover battle five nothing and still

810
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 2: covered the spread. I looked at on teams to lose

811
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 2: the turnover battle five nothing, twelve and two, nineteen and

812
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,280
Speaker 2: one against the spread since nineteen ninety during today twelve

813
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 2: two hundred and nineteen and one. So the Bears would

814
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: be the thirteenth win there. It just they didn't deserve

815
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,439
Speaker 2: it all the turnovers and they got there. And that's

816
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,760
Speaker 2: just because on the other side of the ball, Derek

817
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 2: Carr and they just Derek Carr and Dennis Allen is

818
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 2: the perfect recipe for not covering an eight and a

819
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 2: half point spread. And that's kind of what you got here.

820
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: And this was a Taysom Hill game too, like he

821
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: did it all fair enough. If anything, it was one

822
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: of those times where I kind of wondered, you remember

823
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago before Derek Carr and when

824
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: Drew Brees got hurt and Taysom Hill was kind of

825
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: the quarterback for a little while, and how that offense looked.

826
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 1: That's when they were clicking. Today. He did it all.

827
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 1: You had a passing touchdown, receiving touchdown, he was converting

828
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: some big third downs running the ball. So that's one

829
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: of the things about the Saints that I always wonder

830
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 1: is if they ever just figure it out where they're like, oh,

831
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: we should actually use Taysom Hill way more. They'll be

832
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,320
Speaker 1: way more explosive and dynamic. But they just I don't know,

833
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 1: they're allergic to good decisions. I mean, obviously they signed

834
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So what do you got to say there?

835
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's run through some of these games now,

836
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: Cardinals Browns Browns went twenty seven to nothing. The underhits

837
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: very easily. Browns do covers thirteen and a half point favorites.

838
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 1: And another week and another game evan where the Cardinals

839
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: get no public support eight straight games now where the

840
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: public is on the other side as far as tickets

841
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: and handle go as far as betting. But this was

842
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 1: just another step in the Cardinals tank job. They tried

843
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: to kind of woo us in maybe saying that Kyler

844
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: Murray was potentially gonna play. Instead we get Clayton Tone

845
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: who's completely out of tune, two interceptions, fumble, It was grow.

846
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: They didn't get past midfield until the third quarter. It

847
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 1: was awful football from the Cardinals. And yeah, we don't

848
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: have to talk much more about that game, but yeah,

849
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 1: the Browns defense came to play, came back after two

850
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 1: straight games, had given up close to almost seventy points

851
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: Rams Packers. Packers win twenty to three. Total goes under,

852
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 1: but the Packers do cover as three point favorites. Evan,

853
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: this shock me. Jordan Love had never closed as a

854
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: favorite in his career, and he wins the first one

855
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: quite easily. You know, and Brett Rippion, we just talked

856
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 1: about Clayton Tune him and Brett Rippion and basically going

857
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: for worst quarterback of the day. The Frozen Pizza Championship

858
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: Belt is what I was calling it here. I don't

859
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 1: really think we need to talk too much about this game.

860
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 1: Packers do win, and the Rams continue to trend downward.

861
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: Colts Panthers. Colts win twenty seven to thirteen. Total, does

862
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: go under forty five and a half, and the Colts

863
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 1: do cover as one and a half point favorites. Now,

864
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 1: Nick Giffen is somebody that I talked to quite often,

865
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: and I felt really bad for him today because this

866
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 1: was a really bad beat under. Twenty one and a

867
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: half is what he had for the first half, and

868
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 1: it was a late pick six from Young to give

869
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 1: the Colts to the twenty to three lead. And honestly,

870
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 1: the game felt over by that point. There was three

871
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,479
Speaker 1: interceptions from Bryce Young by the end of the game,

872
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 1: just a horrible rookie game. He had two pick sixes

873
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: in the game as well, which essentially was the difference

874
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 1: in the loss. Let's talk about Giants Raiders though, because

875
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 1: this is a little bit of a feel good story,

876
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 1: and we'll end it on Commander's Patriots. But Giants Raiders.

877
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 1: Raiders win thirty to six. Total does go under of

878
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half. But Antonio Pierce, first coach,

879
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: gets the win teams after coach getting fired. It's just

880
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 1: one of those kind of feel good stories, especially when

881
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: he's here. But some of the rumblings of him bringing

882
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 1: up in the locker room, now I don't know how

883
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: much is true, but there's this story about in the

884
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 1: locker room that he was bringing up the win over

885
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: the Patriots in front of Josh McDaniels and they got

886
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 1: into it. Now, obviously it just sounds like almost like

887
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: an onion article that somebody probably wrote, but I wanted

888
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 1: to believe it. And Antonio Pierce gets his first win

889
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 1: as a head coach. But I think the bad news

890
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: obviously for the Giants. Daniel Jones towards ACL is a

891
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 1: non contact injury. He's gonna be able for this season.

892
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 1: And it was just a horrible train wreck for the

893
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: Giants at quarterback with Tommy DeVito, two picks, a fumble.

894
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: Really just a season from hell for the for the Giants.

895
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, Giants are gonna have to find a new quarterback

896
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: at least to add to the roster. Tyrad's gonna probably

897
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 2: need it a week or two. Jones done, So that's

898
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 2: a situation there. The interesting thing with Pierce obviously beating

899
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 2: his old team in the Giants today since two thousand

900
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 2: and three fired head coaches next week, that team twenty

901
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: and sixteen against the spread, So actually a little bit

902
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 2: of an advantage. And here's a new one for you. Now.

903
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 2: Obviously Daniel Jones probably gone for a little while, but

904
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 2: for a while there Daniel Jones kind of being the

905
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 2: new Kirk Cousins. He is now, so Daniel Jones pretty

906
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: decent quarterback in that one PM slot after one PM,

907
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 2: So in that four and night game situation. Five and

908
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: twenty one straight up for Daniel Jones in his career.

909
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 2: The Giants since twenty seventeen are now eight and thirty

910
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 2: nine straight up in games played after that one PM window,

911
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 2: so they just haven't showed up in primetime. It's been

912
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 2: pretty ugly.

913
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:20,399
Speaker 1: Wow, that win over the Vikings in the playoffs now

914
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: feels like a lifetime ago. Yeah, yeah, all right, let's

915
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: end it off with this one man Commander's Patriots. Commanders

916
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: went twenty to seventeen. Patriots lose this two and a

917
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 1: half point favorites or Commander's cover as two and a

918
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: half point underdogs, depending on your POV, and the total

919
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 1: goes under forty and a half. Now, if you had

920
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 1: only watched a segment of this game in the second quarter,

921
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,720
Speaker 1: you saw everything the Pats did offensively today. They scored

922
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 1: two touchdowns in a minute and thirty four seconds of

923
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: gameplay in the second quarter, and that was pretty much

924
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 1: most of what they did today. And I felt like

925
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 1: the Commanders should have won this game pretty easily. Sam

926
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 1: Hall had an interception in the end zone and then

927
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: another fumble trying to run ball in scoring territory. He's

928
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 1: just been awful. But again, it's better than I guess

929
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 1: Clayton tune. But Mac Jones throws a game ending interception.

930
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 1: Should it have ended any other way?

931
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, when you look at it from New

932
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 2: England's point of view, they now have to go to Germany.

933
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: I kind of wish they faced is send him to Germany.

934
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 2: Send him Germany, is right. I kind of wish they

935
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: faced a different opponent than Indy, because who the heck

936
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 2: knows what you're gonna get with Indy and Gardner Minshew.

937
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 2: Probably a very lunatic type game where lots of points

938
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 2: are most likely scored. I guess the good thing about

939
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: today Ron Rivera goes to now three and zero straight

940
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 2: up and against the spread against Bill Belichick. So a

941
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 2: fun sense of domination there.

942
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 1: Let's just end it on that, and let's check in

943
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 1: now with Patrick Everson with Vegas Insider to see how

944
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 1: sportsbooks fired in Vegas for Week nine. Thanks Logiale.

945
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 3: Good to join you on the Action Network again with

946
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 3: this NFL Week nine just about to conclude, So let's

947
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 3: talk a little bit about how NFL Week nine has

948
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: gone for the betters and how it's gone for the sportsbooks.

949
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 3: I talked to an odds maker a little bit earlier

950
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 3: out of Las Vegas who said the public definitely had

951
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 3: a good day today and a good weekend overall. Really

952
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 3: speaking to college football as well. He noted that the

953
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 3: books had been on a good run in the NFL

954
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 3: for really the last three weeks, but they lost a

955
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 3: lot of it back this week, he said. And I

956
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 3: also talked to Scott Shelton behind the counter for bet

957
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 3: MGM Nevada. He said they actually did a little better

958
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 3: Sunday than Saturday, but they traded money back and forth

959
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 3: a good bit.

960
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 2: He said.

961
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,160
Speaker 3: It started good with the Europe game due to a

962
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: very large exotic wager he didn't say exactly what it

963
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 3: was on an alternate total that the book won. And

964
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 3: then with the Vikings beating the Falcons outright that ended

965
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 3: up being a pretty big decision too, but they gave

966
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 3: a good chump back. They had a really significant six

967
00:49:56,920 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 3: figure play bet MGM did in Vegas on money line,

968
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 3: a money line parlay that tied the Browns in the

969
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 3: early games to the Eagles in the late games, and

970
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 3: they both got there. So that was a pretty big payout.

971
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 3: But just kind of a back and forth day for betemgam,

972
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 3: at least in Nevada. And again another odds maker elsewhere

973
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 3: told me that it was a good day for the public.

974
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 3: Looking ahead to the Monday night game. I think it's

975
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 3: just interesting what's going on with BETEMGM. This could change

976
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 3: a lot on Monday. This is when most most of

977
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:28,720
Speaker 3: the money is going to come in closer to kickoff,

978
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 3: in the hour two three hours leading up to kickoff,

979
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 3: especially that last hour. But this is a game where

980
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 3: the Chargers open minus one and a half at the

981
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 3: Jets up to minus three and a half, and earlier Sunday,

982
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 3: betam Jams sent across some information on the game that

983
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 3: showed points spread betting ticket count ninety percent of tickets

984
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 3: on the Chargers on the road, seventy two percent of

985
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 3: money on the spread on the Jets. So a really

986
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 3: wide dichotomy between where the ticket count is going and

987
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:01,320
Speaker 3: where the spread money is going. And granted spread money,

988
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,399
Speaker 3: you could have one bet two bets that are substantial

989
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: size that can really skew that, So that might be

990
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 3: part of what's going on here. But still it's rather

991
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 3: interesting that you've got ninety percent of tickets on the

992
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:14,320
Speaker 3: Chargers on the spread and seventy two percent of money

993
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 3: on the Jets on the spread. Looking ahead to next

994
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 3: week to week ten, obviously the odds are already on

995
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 3: the board and getting some attention, and I talked with

996
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 3: a Vegas odds maker on Sunday night about this, and

997
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 3: the game that stands out the most is definitely the

998
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers Jags. Both teams are coming off buys.

999
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 3: The Niners are zero and three straight up and against

1000
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 3: the spread in their last three, while the Jags have

1001
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 3: won five in a row and they covered in all

1002
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 3: five of those games. Still, the Niners going on the

1003
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 3: road all the way to the East Coast open at

1004
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,280
Speaker 3: minus three even money. No movement on that at the moment,

1005
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 3: And what the odds maker says is, look, the Niners

1006
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:49,800
Speaker 3: are still a very.

1007
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 1: Good power rated team.

1008
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,359
Speaker 3: They're power rating hasn't suffered too much, even though they're

1009
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 3: in a little bit of a rut lately. And he

1010
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 3: also noted that sometimes sharp betters like to go against

1011
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 3: West Coast teams when they've got to go all the

1012
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 3: way to the East coast, But since the Niners are

1013
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 3: coming off a bye, he said that negates that a

1014
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 3: little bit. You got the Detroit Lions also coming off

1015
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 3: of bye. They're going to travel to face Los Angeles Chargers.

1016
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 3: The Chargers still have to play in the Week nine

1017
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 3: Monday night game at New York against the Jets, as

1018
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,880
Speaker 3: I alluded to a bit ago, and so you've got

1019
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: the Lions off a bye, plenty rested, and the Chargers

1020
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 3: on a short week on the East Coast now have

1021
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 3: to travel back home after they play the Jets. So

1022
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,959
Speaker 3: it's a bit of an unusual situation. And the odds

1023
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 3: maker said he opened this game pick and the Lions

1024
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 3: went to minus one pretty quickly and then onto minus

1025
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 3: one and a half. So Lions a short road favorite

1026
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. And then you got this Giants Cowboys game.

1027
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones just can't buy a break, comes back from injury,

1028
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 3: and it sounds like he's got a pretty significant knee injury.

1029
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 3: Dallas was minus ten on the look aheadline in this

1030
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:55,240
Speaker 3: game against the Giants Giants Cowboys look Ahead opens, Dallas

1031
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 3: minus ten comes off the board for the weekend, goes

1032
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: back up on Sunday night at Dallas is fifteen basically

1033
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 3: reopens already up a point. It went to fifteen and

1034
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 3: a half pretty quickly, and then sixteen shortly after. So

1035
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 3: Dallas it's just a huge favorite.

1036
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: And what the.

1037
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 3: Oddsmaker said is, look, it's you know, it sounds strange

1038
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 3: that Daniel Jones might be worth a touchdown to the spread,

1039
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 3: but it's kind of that combination. It's not just losing

1040
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, it's who's behind Daniel Jones. And Tommy DeVito

1041
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 3: is right now who's behind Daniel Jones. So that's why

1042
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: that's such significant jump.

1043
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 1: So there I have it.

1044
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 3: There is You know, we got to look at how

1045
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 3: things went in week nine for the books at least

1046
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 3: to this point, and a little look ahead to the

1047
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 3: Monday Nighter and of course week ten.

1048
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,320
Speaker 1: Great to be on. We'll see you next week. Thank you, Patrick,

1049
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 1: and thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast

1050
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 1: presented by Bet MGM. Enjoy Monday Night Football and keep

1051
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 1: an eye over all of o NFL Week ten podcasts

1052
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 1: right here on the Action Network.

1053
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1054
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1055
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler