1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Bramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. Well. 7 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: As I mentioned a little bit bit ago, hurricane watch 8 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: in effect now for Florida, South Florida, the Florida Keys, 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: that whole area, and the best track still has it 10 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: going up the east coast of the state and then 11 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 1: into the Georgia Carolina border area. That obviously has big 12 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: impacts on the people who lived there, but it also 13 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: has a major impact on the agriculture done in these states. 14 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: Hurricane Urma threatening uh one point two billion dollars worth 15 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: of production in Florida tomatoes, oranges, green beans, cucumbers, squash, 16 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: and sugarcane, and just a few moments ago, North Carolina's 17 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: agriculture commissioner put out a statement saying that hurricane could 18 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 1: cause severe economic loss of livestock, poultry, and crops in 19 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: our state. Ala Virga covers agriculture for Bloomberg, he joins 20 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: US now and Alan people tend to forget when we 21 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: look at the hurricane damage. We tend to focus on 22 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: the cities. But this could have an impact on a 23 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: lot of crops that could have an impact on what 24 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: people pay for food. This does have potentially a great 25 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: impact on crop prices and certain very key commodities that 26 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: come out of Florida. You know, Mike, Florida is a 27 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: very unique agricultural state because it's even further south than California, 28 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: and as the number two producer of fresh produce, there 29 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: are certain times of year where Florida is the only 30 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: place in the US that is growing strawberries or peppers 31 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: for example. Of course, it's the major you US orange 32 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: producer um and all of these are very much in 33 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: the direct path of the hurricane. You know, you can't 34 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: move your orange trees, you can't evacuate them to someplace else, 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: and people will lose their homes, people lose their livelihoods, 36 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: and and there's a high likelihood of tragedy this weekend. 37 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: From an agricultural standpoint, what you're looking at our folks 38 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: who are preparing their fields for the winter, crops um 39 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: and possibly not being able to even get a crop 40 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: in this year simply because of the damage they may 41 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: be facing in the next week. Now, orange juice is 42 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 1: the big one that that was the one that the 43 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: headlines immediately came about about orange juice futures jumping um. 44 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: There's a real danger that much of the depending on 45 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: where it hits, I guess uh, much of the crop 46 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: could be lost. Much of the crop could be lost. 47 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: And most of the oranges are grown in the southern 48 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: two thirds of the state once again in the path 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: of the hurricane. Um The eastern part of the state 50 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: has a special concentration of oranges. That is where this 51 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: is being tracked potentially for the storm's greatest interact directly. 52 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 1: One thing where Florida maybe in for a little bit 53 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: of a break is the timing of this hurricane in 54 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: the hurricane season. If this were a little bit later, 55 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: you would see some of these crops the winter crops. Again, 56 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: because Florida has a different growing season, a lot of 57 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: crops aren't in the ground yet, you know, not many 58 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: tomatoes have been planted outside of the Tampa area. Strawberries 59 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: largely have not gone to the ground, and the oranges 60 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: have not grown very much on the tree. Now, of course, 61 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: trees can be taken down by this hurricane, but some 62 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: of these larger groves, especially the trees that are further in, 63 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: may be able to survive this. And and the fruit 64 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:32,679 Speaker 1: that if it were a little bit later in the 65 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: season would be more likely to blow away, might actually 66 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: stay on the trees this time. So you know, I 67 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: was talking to the head of the Florida Tomato Exchange 68 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: down in a locally Florida, down by the Everglades, and 69 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: he was saying, look, there's never a good time for 70 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: a hurricane. Um, but it is a little bit easier 71 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: when it's this part of the season rather than a 72 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: little bit further on. Now, the North Carolina thing that 73 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: came out just a few minutes ago, they gave an 74 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: executive order allowing people you don't have to weigh your vehicle. 75 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: I don't understand all this stuff, but basically what they're 76 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: saying is farmers can harvest as much of their crops 77 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: as possible before the storm hits. It's that time, I guess, 78 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: And how much can they get in? Yeah, And you're 79 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 1: hitting on a key point about again, how the tracking 80 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 1: of the storm is really going to affect the agricultural 81 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: damage because the further north you get from Florida, the 82 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: more your crop mixed changes, and the more you get 83 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: into some different industries. You know, the Carolinas are huge 84 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: and poultry UM. Georgia is very large in in peanuts 85 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: for example, UM a lot of these crops. The further 86 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: north you get, the more you get into traditional growing seasons, 87 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: and that means fall harvests are being actually jeopardized in 88 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: some ways. You could see greater damage to those crops 89 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: further north than you would see in Florida. Now in 90 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: terms of you know, interstate vehicles, you know, there's a 91 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: lot of inspection of vehicles that go on between states 92 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: because states have different food safety rules, and a lot 93 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 1: of those rules have now been suspended basically so that 94 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: if you do have livestock, if you do have a 95 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: way of actually moving your animals, unlike a plant that's 96 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: coming out of the ground, you can move those, you 97 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: have more of an ability to do that. UM harvesting 98 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 1: is going on. You know, Georgia is a major cotton state, 99 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: and so maybe you're going to be harvesting some things 100 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: a little earlier than you would you know that has 101 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: a financial cost as well, because that affects your yield. 102 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: You're better off having some sort of a crop than 103 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: no crop at all. But it's not the way that 104 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: you would have done it otherwise, So there is an 105 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: opportunity cost that's lost there. Uh. Obviously, if the storm 106 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: skirts Florida as bad as it would be going into 107 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: the Carolina Is, it's fewer people affected and fewer big cities, 108 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: is there. I hate to put it this way, but 109 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: a better case not a best case, but a better 110 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: case scenario for the track of the storm In terms 111 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: of agriculture, that is a difficult question to answer because 112 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 1: anybody who gets hit is going to be suffering. Um. 113 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: If from the standpoint of the American grocery shelves, probably 114 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: more damage in Georgia and the Carolina Is it's going 115 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: it's going to be felt more broadly on your grocery 116 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: aisle than Florida, which is very much about fresh produce. 117 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: You get further or south, you get a larger variety 118 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: of both livestock as well as crops. You get a 119 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: more traditional harvest that this hurricane is interfering with that calendar. Um, 120 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: and you would definitely see a more broad based damage 121 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 1: if this storm tracks further north, rather than staying very 122 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: much focused on Florida, where you would see some real 123 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: devastating changes with some crops, but it is limited toward 124 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: fresh produce for certain periods of the year. Let me 125 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: ask you this very quickly, in about thirty seconds, how 126 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: soon does what happens to the crops in the ground 127 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: affect what we pay in the grocery store with gasoline? 128 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: It's almost immediate sure, well and again, and it's going 129 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: to come down to consumer expectations. I mean, you've already 130 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: seen the futures jump. Um. If companies decide to take 131 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: advantage of this by raising some prices, maybe preemptively to 132 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: get some profit in before they have to deal with shortages, um, 133 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: it could be pretty quick. Um. Again, in Florida, you're 134 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 1: probably going to see a little bit tougher effect, maybe 135 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: a few months from now in the winter. Um. If 136 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: it's more North Carolina, if it's something like chicken and broilers, 137 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: you can see a very immediate impact. Well. Um. Deargo 138 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: covers Agriculture for Bloomberg, Thank you very much. As we mentioned, 139 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: IRMA Category five and the National Hurricane Center says it's 140 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: gonna stay that way. Not exactly sure where it hits, 141 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: but all of Florida now the Carolinas being warned be ready. 142 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: We haven't seen the hurricane hit land yet, but there 143 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: are a lot of pictures of damage on the internet, um, 144 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: from Hurricane Irma in Florida and the Carolinas. And I'm 145 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: talking about retail stores. I mean the shelves have been 146 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: stripped bare. Uh and at grocery stores, at do it 147 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: yourself stores. Um, it is that time when everybody goes 148 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: and stocks up. Uh. We're joined now by Craig Johnson, 149 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: the president of Customer Growth Partners, on the impact of 150 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: retail from Harvey and Irma. There's kind of, I guess 151 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: a two part thing to a storm like this. Everybody 152 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: goes and buys everything off the shelves and then the 153 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: stories get wrecked by the hurricane. So on one hand, 154 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: the retailers win, on the other hand, they lose. Yeah, 155 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: well it's it's first of all, we have to say 156 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: how difficult it is, and our thoughts go to the 157 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: many victims of this, either people whose lives were lost 158 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: or you know, or their homes ruined. And so when 159 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: we see, we've been studying this since Hurricane Andrew, which 160 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: is two the last Big Five to hit Florida, and 161 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: typically there's uh in most um disaster events, there's a 162 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 1: prior area, the prior section, and then an ex post 163 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 1: facto now unpredicted events such as earthquakes that like the 164 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: Northquadge earthquake in in the mid nineties in l A 165 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: and like nine eleven, you know, there's no no warning. 166 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: But when there's a widely predicted thing, there's a ton 167 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: of stuff sold. So the generator sets. Chatting with the 168 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: head of Home Depot, Craig Maneriro this morning, that's they're 169 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: they're virtually all gone generator sets for when the power 170 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: goes out. Water was out throughout South Florida yesterday, Gasoline 171 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: states were out, Tap City. Now they're trying to bring 172 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: in some new supplies, but it's very difficult, and especially 173 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: when places like Home Depot and lows are trying to 174 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: preposition supplies but they don't know exactly where the storm goes, 175 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: so they have to kind of spread it out a 176 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: little bit. It's very difficult situation. Yeah, that is one 177 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: thing that I imagine has changed since Andrew, which was 178 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 1: so many years ago that the retailers have gotten better 179 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: at anticipating a what people are going to want to 180 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: buy and be as you mentioned, pre positioning it. Yeah, 181 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: the the the analytics in the industry in terms of 182 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: what's needed when it's needed at such and this is 183 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: everything batteries to flashlight to plywood. You know, plywood is 184 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: literally by definition a before item, right and but uh, 185 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: things like uh batteries and generators you can wait till 186 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: act for the storm to get them, but they may 187 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: well be sold out. But the big retail is, particularly 188 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: places like Costco, Walmart, UH Target. The two home improvement 189 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: players you know, Depo and Lows are much better at this. 190 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: But again, even they they have pretty supple supply change, 191 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: pretty flexible, but they can't. You can't always outrun a 192 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: storm because you don't know where it's going to be. 193 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: How do you get something like uh, plywood or batteries, 194 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: I mean to a place I guess it's just the 195 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: better weather forecasting gives them enough time to what do 196 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: they do? Fly it in from somewhere? Well, no, there's 197 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: let's take just these two. Because you can buy batteries 198 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: a lot of you can buy it at the public 199 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: level of batteries is what I'm talking. Well, now, they're 200 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: typically in distribution centers d c's that are spread out 201 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: in multiple places, you know, across the country or more so, 202 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: I'm depending on the retailer. And so they'll be a 203 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: warehouse in Florida. Maybe it's just to be maybe even 204 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: more than one. It will be other than Georgia. There 205 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: might be Alabama. So the one that's now, let's say 206 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: it's sitting in Orlando, Uh, it will run out of batteries, say, 207 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: and run out of plywood and other stuff. So they 208 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: have to bring it in from the next adjacent one. 209 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: And what you want to make sure you do well, 210 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: you not want you don't want to bring it down 211 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 1: from you know, from from Savannah, because Savannah might be 212 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: next in line to get hit. So you want to 213 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: you know, take it from elsewhere, maybe uh west, you know, 214 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: you know, West Florida, Alabama, and then bring it down there. 215 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: So this is a thing you you basically have logistical 216 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: officers working for you, if you're a big retailer who 217 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: figure these things out. Yes, that's that's exactly right. You 218 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: have all these companies because this is you know, this 219 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: is not the first rodeo on this. So they've gone 220 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 1: through what Houston in its own crazy way, which is 221 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 1: like you know that hit maybe a couple of a 222 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 1: couple weeks ago ago. There was lessons been learned in 223 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: Houston that they are in a real time basis applying 224 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: to whether it's Florida, George or you know, Carolinas, whatever, 225 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: they're applying those lessons of getting stuff, they're getting early. 226 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: And like water. You know, there were fights at Costco 227 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: yesterday morning. Over over the last you know a few 228 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: things about fist fights breaking out in some of the stories. 229 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 1: It was crazy and now it's all gone. Um, water 230 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: is tricky because it's heavier. You know, you can't fly 231 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: it in that easily. Again about thirty seconds left. But 232 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: what about things that aren't critical, you know, like clothing. Um, 233 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: those retailers affected as well, well, they will be affected. 234 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: But typically if someone needs to buyse to a new 235 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: you know, warm weather stuff you know for the fall 236 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: or or or or white sweat, you don't have to 237 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: get it this week. Uh, you can get it, you 238 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: know a week or two after things. You said that, 239 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: and of course you can always order it online. So 240 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: purchases deferred. But not yet. It's not foregone because we 241 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:53,959 Speaker 1: say disasters don't destroy demand, they displace it forward in time, 242 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: backward or online. So in general the retailers won't necessarily 243 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: who's other than damage wise, they'll they'll be a net neutral. 244 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: In fact, that maybe slightly up because people in the 245 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: entire cone will buy generators, even though they may not 246 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: end up needing it. Everybody as a generator in their 247 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: back yard. Greig Johnson, thanks very much for being with 248 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: President of Customer Growth Partners. Interesting story the other day, 249 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: I walked into a whole food store, now that of 250 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: course they were just bought by Amazon, and there was 251 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: a whole cable full of Amazon echoes and dots. There's 252 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: a big sign on the table that said farm Fresh. 253 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: It's not like the frozen or you know, boxed Amazon 254 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: echoes that you get from ordinary retailers. These are farm 255 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: fresh ones. But it's all part of Amazon's massive expansion, 256 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 1: so big that Amazon is now shopping. According to Jeff Bezos, 257 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: they're looking for a new second North American Headquarters dubbed 258 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: h Q two, somewhere in the country in which they 259 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:15,719 Speaker 1: would house fifty thousand people O day is a Bloomberg 260 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: Gadfly columnist. I've never heard of this. I mean, I 261 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: know people have campuses for various reasons one place or 262 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: another around the world, But to have something that you 263 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: would dub a second headquarters and have it be so large, 264 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: this is unusual. Yeah. I mean, I guess Boeing sort 265 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: of has to headquarters a bit in Seattle. They had 266 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: a weird deal because because that's where their manufacturing is 267 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: in Seattle, and everybody would have been really I'll use it. 268 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: I'll just nicely say they would be angry if they 269 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: had moved that away, but they wanted to get their 270 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: executives out of there. But they don't have fifty people 271 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: in Chicago. No, I think that's right, And I mean 272 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: I think we're at the point where Amazon has basically 273 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: outgrown its hometown that as you said, they have, and 274 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: people in Seattle. There's a good deal of anxiety in 275 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: the city of Seattle about Amazon kind of gobbling up 276 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: all the prime real estate. Um that the number of 277 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: employees there has made traffic worse, raised housing prices, right, 278 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: So I can't even imagine doubling the size of Amazon 279 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: in a city like Seattle. So I guess they're looking 280 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: for someplace else to put another Amazon sized company. Where 281 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: would that place be? I think we can safely say 282 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: that the guns the gun fired this morning, and you're 283 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: gonna have every city, any big city and municipality hoping 284 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: that Amazon comes into their backyard and sort of dangling 285 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: tax um tax breaks and other goodies to Jeff Bezos. 286 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: While we were sitting here, the mayor Memphis tweeted that 287 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: they're going to bid for this new Amazon headquarters. So again, 288 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: that's just the first of many, it doesn't I mean, 289 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: they it would seem to me they would need some 290 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: specialization in the city that they would end up. You 291 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: got to have a place where there are tech people, right, yeah, 292 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: I would think so. And you know, Amazon had this 293 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: kind of h eight page brief that kind of lays 294 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: out their criterion. It's basically, they want highly educated workforce. 295 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: They want a relatively large city or that has kind 296 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: of a suburban urban core. They wanted to have a 297 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: quote unquote business friendly climate. So you know, they do 298 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: have some criteria in mind for what they're looking for, 299 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: including having enough, um, kind of talented people. Would you 300 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: think that they would want to move away from the 301 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: West Coast in other words have a second headquarters somewhere 302 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: on the east side of the country. I mean, I'm 303 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 1: guessing a little bit, but I would think, yeah, they 304 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: would want some geographic diversity and whether that means. I've 305 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: heard people this morning talking about Utah, for example, which 306 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: people have dubbed Silicon Slopes, right, the sort of Silicon Valley, 307 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: slightly further east. Um, that obviously gets you a little 308 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: bit out of the Bay Area and Seattle tech hubs, 309 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: but not quite so far away. But again, I imagine 310 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: many cities all over the country. You are going to 311 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: be vying for Amazon this new HQ. Well, what do 312 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: we think Jeff Bezos wants out of this? I mean, 313 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: he you bring fifty jobs somewhere, that's going to transform 314 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 1: where every even if you put it in New York 315 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: eight million people, that's going to be transformative. Does he 316 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 1: want to transform someplace? Does he want to make it 317 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: the next Seattle? And raise some of those questions, Uh, 318 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: do we know what he wants to accomplish here? So 319 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: one thing that's been very interesting to watch is Amazon's 320 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: reaction to I think there's just kind of growing anxiety 321 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: about the impact to the labor economy and the economy 322 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: at large from the transformation of retail from physical in 323 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: some cases mom and pop stores to e commerce controlled 324 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: by a handful of very large companies, primarily Amazon. And 325 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: you know that if you see them reacting here and 326 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 1: there to sort of economic reports about you know, these 327 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: automated package warehouses crushing jobs and Amazon putting retailers out 328 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: of business. And I can imagine that making generating attention 329 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: for a company for adding fifty jobs, for potentially transforming 330 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: the economy of a medium sized or large city by 331 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: adding fifty high paying jobs. That is the kind of 332 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: attention that Amazon wants, not attention for them, you know, 333 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: shutting mom and pop retailers on Main Street very quickly. 334 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: Just thirty seconds left, When do we find out? Uh, 335 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: they're looking to have a city selected soon and they 336 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: want to start building the new headquarters. By this is like, 337 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 1: you know, bidding for the Olympics. I guess I wonder 338 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,040 Speaker 1: who gets the TV rights to all of who's to 339 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: carry the torch exactly year overday from Bloomberg Gadfly. I 340 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 1: heard our next guest to draw a breath when we 341 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: heard Greg read the ten year note yield two point 342 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 1: oh four. Uh Mar mar Lowe is senior global market 343 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: strategist to be in y Melon. Um, what is going 344 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: on now? I mean we were talking about this earlier 345 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: on the show. The FED is in theory going to 346 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: announce that next month it's going to start tapering its 347 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 1: bond purchases. UH, and that should, all things being equal, 348 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 1: push rates higher. UH. Mario drag said today, We're not 349 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: ready to do anything. We're gonna keep buying sixty billion 350 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: euros a month worth of UH securities in Europe, and 351 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: we keep our interest rate at negative forty basis points. 352 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: And everybody wants into the Euro and everybody wants to 353 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 1: do American bonds. Um, what's going on out there? Well, 354 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: you know, I still think that the central banks are 355 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: the most important, UM thing that investors have to consider. 356 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: And you've got these waxing and waning UM on the 357 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: next stage of monetary policy. And UM, there are certain 358 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,199 Speaker 1: aspects that are going on in Europe in terms of 359 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: the fact that they haven't started to reverse their accommodation, 360 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: whereas the Fed and you know, to a certain degreet 361 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: what we saw from the Bank of Canada UH yesterday, 362 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: has started to move in that direction. So UM, the 363 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,959 Speaker 1: next move in terms of how the market looks at 364 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: it is that the ECB has to do something at 365 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: this point, and I think you're starting to see that 366 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: play out in its currency. The FED, however, is a 367 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: few steps ahead, and they've got some challenges to continue 368 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: along the path that day'veum that they've kind of told 369 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 1: the market over the course of the last few quarters. 370 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: So basically it's the old Chuck Prince thing. You gotta 371 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: keep dancing as long as the music is playing. You know. 372 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 1: It's that that's such a such a uh analogy that 373 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 1: has a lot of uh difficult connotations associated with it. 374 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: But you know, we saw again a vixed spike kind 375 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: of around some of the North Korea tensions that developed, 376 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: and you know, once again a collapse around it. There 377 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: still is a lot of liquidity in the market. One 378 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: certainly has to be prepared um to kind of see 379 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 1: these spikes. But you know, so long as that liquidity 380 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 1: is out there, I think that kind of the reach 381 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: for yield and kind of this buoyant type of risk 382 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 1: environment is something that we have to consider, um, tie 383 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: the money, but could the tide go up very quickly 384 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: and leave people as in Warren Buffett's famous analogy not 385 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,199 Speaker 1: wearing their swimming trust. There's there there are a lot 386 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: of UM into relationships in this market that we haven't 387 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: seen since the crisis. You know, whether it's whether it 388 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: comes from UM. These packaged products are out there, the 389 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: e t f s the ability to UM make investments 390 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 1: in sectors that once were tied to more longer term 391 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: type UH type thought processes. UM from the central bank perspective, 392 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 1: they're going to continue to convey that they're going to 393 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: take money out of the system in a very slow manner, 394 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,239 Speaker 1: and for the moment, the market is certainly buying it. 395 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 1: I think was the market prepared for that? I mean, 396 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: or did people start thinking that they were going to 397 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: be UM more hawkish than they have been? Yeah, I 398 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: think I think when we were in the middle of 399 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: the summer, and you know, we can kind of think 400 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: back UM to some of the volatility that Dragging introduced 401 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: when he had his speech and in Portugal, that's certainly 402 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: raised the specter that there was going to be a 403 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: coordinated move around monetary policy, and we kind of saw 404 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: some volatility around that. But lo and behold UM currencies 405 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: and UH inflation and UM the impact that currency has 406 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 1: on your economy, growth, etcetera, etcetera comes into play, and 407 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: it's showing how difficult it is for them to to 408 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: step away. How does that? How did it when when 409 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: you talk to people about what they should be buying, then, um, 410 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 1: how do you incorporate this uh, this x a nation 411 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: for what's going on into your buying suggestions? You know, 412 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,439 Speaker 1: I think I think, um, we have to start looking 413 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more deeply in terms of what sectors, 414 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: what parts of the world would benefit from um, the 415 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 1: fact that it's hard to withdraw a lot of this 416 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: monetary policy stimulus. Emerging markets have had an incredible run. Um. Uh, 417 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 1: they've been the top performer and a lot of different 418 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: asset classes depending on how you um, how you slice it, 419 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 1: that's still a story that we should look at. UM. 420 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: I think it's a story where we have to dissect 421 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: it a little bit more. You know, the easy trade 422 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,720 Speaker 1: is over, you know, do we start looking at industries 423 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: within that? Do we start looking at various rating sectors 424 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: within that sleeve? Um to decide where there might be 425 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, there's no more low hanging fruit. But let's 426 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 1: say you know, a fruit that we could still reach 427 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: without without a ladder. Were you surprised yet, and I'm 428 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: thinking of countries where you you know you could go. 429 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: Were you surprised by Candida yesterday? You know, to a 430 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: certain degree, Um, the fact that they moved, I think 431 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 1: the surprise was that they moved yesterday rather the next month. 432 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: So to a certain degree, that is a little bit 433 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: of surprise in it. But uh, you know, it was 434 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: widely expected, including by myself, that they were going to 435 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: go sometime this year. October seemed like it made more sense, 436 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: um in terms of seeing how the other central banks did. 437 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: But you know it it created a little bit of volatility. 438 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: But overall, um, the move is not a surprise from 439 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: the perspective of are they going to move within uh 440 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: you know, are they going to move this year? Again, 441 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 1: the answer would have been yes for most people. What 442 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: about now are they done? They sounded very devish in 443 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: their statement, Yeah, you know they And again it's it's 444 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 1: the currency thing. This is the challenge with a lot 445 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,400 Speaker 1: of what the central banks are trying to do. It's 446 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 1: it's a it's a very fine line. Um. It does 447 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: come down to the data. They were forced, um to 448 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 1: a certain degree, because they've had some very very strong 449 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 1: data prints. They also have, um, you know, housing concerns 450 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: and real estate price concerns that maybe some of the 451 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: other central banks aren't UM as worried about. Uh they 452 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: those are still issues. UM. But it will be on 453 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: it will it will be reliant on the data and 454 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: it seems firm. So UM, you know, I wouldn't be 455 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: surprised if we see another move from them this year. 456 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: What about other markets that might surprise us? So I 457 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 1: presume you're not expecting much from the Japanese, but any 458 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: any place else around the world that you're watching, you know, 459 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: the Japan, Japan and the yen are always interesting because 460 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 1: of the flight to quality type of aspect that that 461 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,120 Speaker 1: the END has. So we're looking at it from that perspective, 462 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: and it makes it incredibly challenging because you know, whether 463 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: it's a you know, it's a tape bomb that comes 464 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: out of the administration and or you know, real saber 465 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: rattling that comes out of the peninsula, the END is 466 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 1: at the center of that. In terms of what their 467 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: monetary policy can do. They're they're somewhat hamstrong. They they 468 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,120 Speaker 1: own a very large part of the market already. They 469 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: are UM you know, buying pretty much as much as 470 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: they can. Uh. I think that this year, with their 471 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: tenual targeting, they've kind of reduced their purchases. So there's 472 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: a little bit of tapering that's been going on there already. 473 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 1: But their yields are are you know, they don't move 474 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 1: a whole lot kind of given how large of a 475 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 1: buyer the b o J is already at this point. 476 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: You mentioned tape bombs. Uh do you wear a hard 477 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 1: hat to work these days? I mean the way that 478 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: the news flow has been Yeah, I mean, I guess 479 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 1: I'm in the same camp as all of us. Through 480 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: a certain degree, we get immune from it. And again 481 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: the fact that we could, you know, spike the vix 482 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: by somewhere in the range on Monday and kind of 483 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: see a collapse back down to this eleven eleven and 484 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 1: a half era area makes it so that, um, we 485 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: are almost expecting that that's not necessarily um a good 486 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: attitude to have, but it seems that we're always kind 487 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: of looking for it. You do get a little bit 488 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: immune to it. Uh. Interesting question. Stocks keep going up 489 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: and I've only got about fifteen seconds here. Bonds stay 490 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: range bound. The only movement is in currencies. Does that 491 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 1: change anytime soon? Um? You know what, I think, I 492 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: think that that's a pattern that's gonna it's gonna take 493 00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: something to break it. Um And and so far we're 494 00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: still within that. A lot of this this debt ceiling 495 00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: to discussion whether or not the administration can be effective, 496 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: might be a catalyst around that, but so far the 497 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 1: market has been able to overlook it. All right, Thank 498 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: you very much, bar and Lowe Senior Global Market Strategies 499 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,920 Speaker 1: to be and Lion Melon, the man with a hard 500 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: hat on as you gotta work. Tape bombs every day, 501 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: it seems. And we're keeping an eye on obviously IRMA 502 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,679 Speaker 1: for something that could happen, and keeping an eye on 503 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: the White House for anything that could come out these days. 504 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 1: I Michael McKy, this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to 505 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and 506 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast 507 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,360 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at 508 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 1: pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 509 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 510 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.