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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Freeman, matt fd Oracle. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by betmgim, where

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Speaker 1: you can get a risk free bet up two thousand

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros with your first deposit. All right, here with

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Speaker 1: me to talk NFL Week fifteen market movement, empower ratings

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Speaker 1: as well as Thursday Night football between the forty nine

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Speaker 1: Ers and Seahawks. It's lucky timing, it just worked out

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Speaker 1: that way. Here with me is noted Seahawks fan Ben

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Speaker 1: Baldwin who contributes to The Athletic and he runs the

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Speaker 1: aptly named Ben Baldwin fourth Down Decision Bots on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: as well as the NFL Faster Database and the great

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Speaker 1: stats website RBSDM dot com aka RBS Don't Matter. Ben.

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Speaker 1: How's this season going for you?

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Speaker 2: Pretty good? Seahawks are right as terrible as I thought.

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Speaker 2: Although the recent trend isn't great, at least they're entertaining,

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Speaker 2: so from that perspective, I can't complain too much. And

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Speaker 2: it's just I love the NFL and it's great to

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Speaker 2: be here in season with the playoffs coming up. So

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Speaker 2: it's a good time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean the Seahawks not as bad as I

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Speaker 1: would have expected at the beginning of the year, where

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Speaker 1: I very cleanly had them ranked in my bottom three,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, for a stretch of the year

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Speaker 1: they looked pretty good. Disappointed however in week fourteen, and

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Speaker 1: we will certainly get into that. So, you know, Ben,

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Speaker 1: you do a lot in the sports analytics space. I'm wondering, like,

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Speaker 1: kind of the background, how did you get into this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So my background and training was in economics, So

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Speaker 2: for my day job, I basically used data to do

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Speaker 2: research and write research papers and stuff. And then a

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Speaker 2: while back, in my free time, I watched a lot

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Speaker 2: of football and at the time, this was maybe like

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Speaker 2: five to seven years ago, there wasn't as much like

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Speaker 2: numbers based approach to looking at the NFL. And that's

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Speaker 2: kind of how I got into it, where I found

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Speaker 2: I played data and started playing around with it, and

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Speaker 2: at the time, there wasn't like this big explosion of

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Speaker 2: other people doing that, so I think it was easier

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Speaker 2: to stand out at the time than it would be

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Speaker 2: now perhaps, And it kind of grew from there where

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Speaker 2: now there's yeah, the fourth down bot in the website

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Speaker 2: and this other stuff that I think people have found useful,

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Speaker 2: which is fun to see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the fourth down bot fantastic for a few reasons. One,

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Speaker 1: it's great to consult it in real time and just

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Speaker 1: to have confirmed some recency buy or not recency buyas

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Speaker 1: but confirmation bias the idiocy of what we see on

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Speaker 1: a daily basis in the NFL with the decisions that

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Speaker 1: different coaches are making. Can you talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about the fourth down pot and everyone should definitely go

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Speaker 1: check it out. I feel like it's one of those

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Speaker 1: like must to have open while you're watching football games,

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Speaker 1: especially later in the games. But like, what are what

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Speaker 1: are some of the biggest decisions that have have popped

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Speaker 1: up this year that that stood out on the fourth

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Speaker 1: down pot? Is like, man, I cannot believe, or maybe

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Speaker 1: I can believe they made that decision, but this really

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Speaker 1: confirms the stupidity of what I just saw. Yeah, when you.

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Speaker 2: Talk about fourth decisions this year, you have to start

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Speaker 2: with that Denver Week one trying a sixty four yard

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Speaker 2: field goal or whatever it was in Seattle instead of

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Speaker 2: going for fourth and five. And yeah, we've learned since

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Speaker 2: then that the Broncos offense is not very good, so

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Speaker 2: maybe they wouldn't have converted anyway. But if you're trying

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Speaker 2: for the longest field goal in the NFL history outside

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Speaker 2: of Sea Level and Seattle, then it's probably not a

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Speaker 2: good idea. I think the other one that did out

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Speaker 2: a lot was I think it was like Week three

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Speaker 2: or something when the Chargers put the Chiefs and both

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Speaker 2: of those teams had so many short gardage like fourth

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Speaker 2: and one, fourth and two situations, and both of them

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Speaker 2: just kept punting back and forth to each other even

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Speaker 2: though their offense were doing really good, and there's no

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Speaker 2: reason to not expect to be able to convert those

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Speaker 2: at a high rate. So that those are the two games.

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Speaker 2: Of course, prime ten games are the ones that stick

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Speaker 2: in our mindset, and those were Those are the two

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Speaker 2: that have stuck in my mind so far, although I'm

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Speaker 2: sure there'll be others, especially in the playoffs pretty soon.

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Speaker 1: All Right, well, you know this is the power rating

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Speaker 1: show in the market movement show, and so you know

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Speaker 1: the two teams at the top of basically whether you're

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Speaker 1: looking at at actual power ratings or you know, market

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Speaker 1: based power ratings. And by the way, I think you

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Speaker 1: put out market based power ratings each week, kind of

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Speaker 1: looking at Okay, here are the Vegas lines for this

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Speaker 1: week and next week, and so you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: triangulating all all the different spreads and totals. Here are

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Speaker 1: the market based power ratings. So everyone wants to check

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Speaker 1: that out on Twitter, but you know, whether you're consulting

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Speaker 1: what I would say, like sharp power ratings or just

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Speaker 1: kind of general Hey, you know, here's you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: a square, but here's what I'm thinking about these teams

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Speaker 1: one through thirty two. The teams at the top are

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Speaker 1: Kansas City in Buffalo, and I'm wondering how it is

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Speaker 1: that you stack those two teams in particular. I'm still

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Speaker 1: higher on the Chiefs than the Bills at this point,

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Speaker 1: but I think a lot of sharp people do prefer

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Speaker 1: the bills. How do you kind of distinguish between those two?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think them being pretty close right now is right.

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Speaker 2: And this has flipped. If you'd asked me like a

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Speaker 2: month ago or so, I would have had the bills

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Speaker 2: a lot higher. But they, like they have not played

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Speaker 2: as well recently. The Josh Allen heard his elbow, Von

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Speaker 2: they lost Von Miller. They've kind of come back down

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Speaker 2: to earth where earlier in the season they were just

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Speaker 2: crushing everybody they played, and that's not really the case anymore.

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Speaker 2: So I would put them in a tier by themselves together,

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Speaker 2: and then it's kind of the next group after that,

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Speaker 2: and I would guess at this point whoever was the

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Speaker 2: home team would be favored if those two teams put

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Speaker 2: each other.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And by the way, speaking of the Bills, here

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Speaker 1: comes the plug. We're giving away a free signed Isaiah

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Speaker 1: McKenzie Buffalo Bill's mini helmet from Pristine Auction. If you

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Speaker 1: want a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel right now com below on the video

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Speaker 1: and we will announce a winner on the channel in

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Speaker 1: a future episode. So turned on those notifications, all right.

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Speaker 1: Based on what we saw this past week, the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers have moved up a lot for me. And

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Speaker 1: this was probably because I wouldn't say I overestimated the

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Speaker 1: impact of Jimmy Garoppolo in that offense, but I've had

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Speaker 1: a pretty healthy respect for what Garoppolo has done within

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Speaker 1: the confines of the Shanahan offense and the half decade

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Speaker 1: that he's been here. I don't think Garoppolo is an

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Speaker 1: elite passer, a top tier quarterback, but within the scheme,

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Speaker 1: and given that he knows it so well. Through his

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Speaker 1: tenure there, he's been, you know, like in terms of

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Speaker 1: the completion percentage over expectation and epa composite metric that

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Speaker 1: you have at your website, he's been a top five quarterback.

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Speaker 1: And so I imagined that the drop from Garoppolo to

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Speaker 1: mister irrelevant third string rookie quarterback would be pretty significant,

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Speaker 1: and at least based on what we've seen in like

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Speaker 1: a game and a half of action. Now the drop

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Speaker 1: hasn't been as big as I would have anticipated, and

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Speaker 1: so I have moved the forty nine ers pretty considerably

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Speaker 1: back up to where I have them now as the

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Speaker 1: number six team in my power rankings, and so they

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Speaker 1: are the team that has moved up the most over

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Speaker 1: the past week, and then also the Chargers, the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: and the Rams. Any thoughts on those teams specify the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely agree on the forty nine Ers. I think

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Speaker 2: that was perhaps the biggest question going into this weekend,

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Speaker 2: is how their offense would look without Jimmy Garoppolo and

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Speaker 2: with a full game, knowing that it was that Jimmy

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Speaker 2: g was not going to be the starter, and I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure how more convincingly they could have answered that question.

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Speaker 2: And and now, yeah, it makes sense to have them

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Speaker 2: as not in that top group of teams with the

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Speaker 2: Bill's Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, but kind of in that next

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Speaker 2: year after that, which is kind of where they were

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Speaker 2: before almost. But yeah, they're certainly not a team that

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Speaker 2: we can write out as right off is not having

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Speaker 2: any chance in the NFC, although isn't It didn't brock

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Speaker 2: pretty get injured, So if he doesn't play on Thursday,

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Speaker 2: that some of this conversation might have to shift to

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Speaker 2: what we think they would be with another quarterback. So

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Speaker 2: that's that's kind of the caveat behind all this too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm saying all this under the assumption that party

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Speaker 1: will play, but I guess we can't take that at

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Speaker 1: face value. There the Chargers, that was a really good

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Speaker 1: win over the Dolphins here, and they did it with

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Speaker 1: a number of key players missing on defense, and so that,

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Speaker 1: you know, it was all the more encouraging. Any thoughts

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Speaker 1: on what we saw out of the Chargers this past weekend, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: It was definitely encouraging. They were not expected to win

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Speaker 2: that game, even though they were at home and it

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Speaker 2: was a very convincing victory. The final score made it

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Speaker 2: look closer than it probably was, and the Dolphins are

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Speaker 2: helped a lot by that weird Tygreek Hill play in

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Speaker 2: the first half. But we've seen the Charges offense be

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Speaker 2: really good in the past last year, and they do

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Speaker 2: have some players like eventually Joey Wilson is going to

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Speaker 2: come back. Eventually they will get other guys back and

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Speaker 2: if they can seek into the playoffs. Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of other good AFC teams, but I wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: super excited to play them if they were my playoff one,

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Speaker 2: especially the Chiefs because for some reason, the Chargers just

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Speaker 2: always played really well against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: So two teams that have moved up in your estimation

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Speaker 1: we have the Bengals and the Jaguars. Can you talk

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Speaker 1: about what you saw out of them, because obviously both

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Speaker 1: of them had very good wins this past weekend. Kind

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Speaker 1: of where are you where are you tearing them now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So I think the Bengals are pretty close to

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Speaker 2: us good as the Eagles and Cowboys, So that's they're

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Speaker 2: not the Bills and Chiefs. Those are the two best teams.

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Speaker 2: I think everyone would probably agree on that. But I

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Speaker 2: think after that, the Bengals have to be taken seriously

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Speaker 2: as in that next group of teams. And I think,

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Speaker 2: like last year, I was pretty skeptical in the Bengals

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Speaker 2: for a lot of the season. A lot of their

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Speaker 2: offense was due to explosive plays and like their efficiency

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Speaker 2: metrics weren't that good, and like all the nerds said

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Speaker 2: this throughout all of the last season, and then they

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Speaker 2: made us all look very dumb because they ended up

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Speaker 2: winning the conference and going to the super Bowl. But

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Speaker 2: I think they're a much better team they are last year.

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Speaker 2: And as funny as this is to say about a

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Speaker 2: team that won their conference last year, I think they are.

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Speaker 2: They've shown themselves to be kind of in that next

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Speaker 2: group of teams after the top team, and I wrote

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Speaker 2: them as a riser, and yes, there they're whatever. The

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Speaker 2: Browns was impressive, but I'm kind of also to a

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Speaker 2: little extent lumping in their prior week, which which was

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Speaker 2: their win over the Chiefs. So in the last two weeks,

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Speaker 2: I think like my view on them has increased a lot,

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Speaker 2: both because of the Browns game but also the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: game is pressed on my went right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I have the Chiefs and the Bills kind

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Speaker 1: of in a tier, but I don't have the Eagles

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Speaker 1: all that far below them. And then I have the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: and then I have the Bengals. And there's a chance

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Speaker 1: that I am not high enough on the Bengals that

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Speaker 1: I should have them a little bit closer to the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys than I do. I have the Bengals right now

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Speaker 1: five points better than an average team on a neutral field.

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Speaker 1: I have the Cowboys six points better. And I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: as you say, like, we've seen some impressive displays from

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Speaker 1: the Bengals and their offense and the way that they're

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Speaker 1: generating points feels more sustainable this year than what we

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Speaker 1: saw last year. Last year it felt like they were

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Speaker 1: punching above their weight class, and then this year it

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Speaker 1: feels like they've grown into the weight class and it's

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Speaker 1: it's a little more sustainable. So the Jags, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they feel not exactly like the Bengals last year, but

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Speaker 1: they feel like a team that is starting to take

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Speaker 1: those steps forward where they have a second year quarterback

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Speaker 1: who is starting to mature. They've put pieces around him

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Speaker 1: you can see it all starting to come together, and

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Speaker 1: you know, they had a pretty impressive performance against a

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Speaker 1: tough Titans team. Now the Titans very injured on defense,

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Speaker 1: so you kind of have to adjust for that a

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Speaker 1: little bit calibrate, But still an impressive win by the Jags.

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Speaker 1: What are you thinking?

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Speaker 2: They're yeah, and that's a team that has just owned

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars over the years, and they they got to

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Speaker 2: win over the Titans, and they bounced back from what

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Speaker 2: was a nightglare game against the Lions the week before.

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Speaker 2: I put the Jaguars here because I think they're an

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Speaker 2: interesting team and that a lot of the advanced measures

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Speaker 2: really liked them for a lot of this season. Their

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Speaker 2: points differential is pretty good, their performance on early downs,

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Speaker 2: all this other stuff. So in my head I kind

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Speaker 2: of had them as like a sneaky team that is

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Speaker 2: probably better than we thought. And then, of course, two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, they just got drilled by the Lions. So

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Speaker 2: then after that I was like, Okay, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: give up on the Jaguars for this season. They'll get

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Speaker 2: their high draft pick and come back next year. But

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Speaker 2: now they come back and have a very impressive game

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Speaker 2: against the Titans, and now I'm very interested to see

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Speaker 2: how this game against the Cowboys goes is this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we will definitely touch on that game in

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So a team that I've moved down

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Speaker 1: the board based on what we saw last week and

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Speaker 1: really also the week prior, the Browns Now, I would

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Speaker 1: say I was maybe on the more optimistic side of

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Speaker 1: what we would have expected out of that offense with

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Speaker 1: the insertion of Deshaun Watson, and so maybe I'm sort

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Speaker 1: of adjusting back to where I maybe should have been,

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Speaker 1: but it has not been good. I think even if

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Speaker 1: you were just sort of like a neutral in terms

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Speaker 1: of where you would assume this offense to be, you

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Speaker 1: probably would be adjusting down based on what we've seen.

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Speaker 1: But this Browns team offensively does not look good, and

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Speaker 1: they've had defensive problems for the entire season. So I've

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Speaker 1: adjusted them. Let me see a point one point two

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Speaker 1: five points from last week to this week downwards, and

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Speaker 1: then also the Buccaneers and the Raiders. I mean, I've

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Speaker 1: just been I've been too high on the Buccaneers. I'm

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Speaker 1: probably still too high on the Buccaneers, but I mean,

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Speaker 1: what happened to them in San Francisco was just absolutely embarrassing,

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Speaker 1: and they just each week seem to incur more and

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Speaker 1: more injuries on the defense. And then the Raiders, I mean,

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Speaker 1: come on the Rams, Baker Mayfield with like two days

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Speaker 1: on the team, like just got the playbook and you lost,

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Speaker 1: and that's not even taking into account a month before

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Speaker 1: you lost to Jeff Saturday, like fresh out of ESPN.

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Speaker 1: I just I can't do it, you know. I multiple

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Speaker 1: times I've said I can't bet on the Raiders anymore

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Speaker 1: this year, Like if my number shows value all the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: I'm not buying it. And I just can't bet it.

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Speaker 1: And I'm there once again. And so those are the

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Speaker 1: three teams that I've downgraded the most, the Browns, the Buccaneers,

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Speaker 1: and the Raiders. Any thoughts on those teams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm one hundred percent with you on the Browns,

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Speaker 2: especially where I am shocked at how bad their offense

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Speaker 2: has been. Their offense was really good, but Jacoby Brissett

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Speaker 2: and yeah, the last time we saw it, Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 2: play in twenty twenty. Their team wasn't good, but he

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Speaker 2: was great. Their passing offense was great. It was just

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Speaker 2: everything around them that was not good, So you'd expect

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Speaker 2: to drop him into your team with a really good

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Speaker 2: offensive line Amari Cooper, David and Jocus back now and

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Speaker 2: they have weapons offensive line and a play caller who's

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Speaker 2: been getting the most out of Jacoby Brisett, and their

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Speaker 2: offense is just fallen flat on their face for two

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Speaker 2: games in a row. So I think this is really surprising,

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Speaker 2: and it kind of reminds me of not to make

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Speaker 2: everything about the Seahawks, but the Broncos had kind of

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Speaker 2: a decent passing offense last year with Teddy Bridgewater, and

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Speaker 2: everyone was like, Okay, they have this passing offense is

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Speaker 2: pretty good, and they're going to take Russell Wilson and

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Speaker 2: put him in there, and now it's going to be

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Speaker 2: even better. And that's very much not been the case

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Speaker 2: with the Broncos, and now with the Browns we're kind

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Speaker 2: of seeing it again. And I have no explanation for

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Speaker 2: why this might be with Watson because he's he's not old,

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Speaker 2: he's not injured. Maybe he's just rusty. But I would

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Speaker 2: be very concerned if are a Browns fan or someone

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Speaker 2: running the team, given their investment in him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, Any thoughts on the Buccaneers or the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Uh, yeah, I agree that we can. The Buccaneers might

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs, but I would not be super scared

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Speaker 2: of them if I if I were an NFC playoff team,

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Speaker 2: And like, it's weird because on paper, they have receivers.

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Speaker 2: Their offensive line has had injuries and problems, but it's

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Speaker 2: not the worst group in the world, and they still

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Speaker 2: have Tom Brady's who. You would think that eventually they're

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Speaker 2: going to put it together. They're going to put it together,

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Speaker 2: and it just has not happened for them, and given

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Speaker 2: that it's been so long, it kind of seems unlikely

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Speaker 2: to think that it will be at some point. And then, yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Raiders are well, I just saw them beat the

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Speaker 2: Seahawks and Seattle which is another story, but yeah, that

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Speaker 2: RAN's game was kind of embarrassing for that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean with the Buccaneers, it feels like the

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Speaker 1: main problem is the play calling, you know, the play

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Speaker 1: calling or sequencing. They have an offensive coordinator who doesn't

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Speaker 1: know what EPA stands for, you know, Like I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure there are a lot of people in the

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Speaker 1: NFL who don't know what EPA is, but I feel

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Speaker 1: like that's just a sign and symbol of the issues

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Speaker 1: facing that offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they are determined to run the ball on first

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Speaker 2: and ten, especially and their run game. It's one thing

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Speaker 2: to run the ball if you're not terrible at it.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, they have a decent pass game, they have

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Speaker 2: a terrible run game, and they just insist on running

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Speaker 2: the ball, running the wall, running the ball, and it's

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Speaker 2: just not it has not served them well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So a team that you have moved

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Speaker 1: down the board since last week, the Vikings who just

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Speaker 1: got salacked by the Lions. And I mean the thing is, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, the line moved towards moved towards the lines,

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Speaker 1: you know, like the Betty market got it right on

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Speaker 1: this one, where the lines opened as as underdogs, they

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Speaker 1: closed as his favorites. You know, the casual football fan

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Speaker 1: might have looked at the win loss records of these

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Speaker 1: two teams and said, like, hey, like, what's going on?

355
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Speaker 1: Vegas is setting a trap for us? Uh? And no,

356
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Speaker 1: the Lions just went out there and took care of

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Speaker 1: business and looked pretty good doing it. And the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: on the other hand, didn't really look that good while

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Speaker 1: they were getting their butts kicked. What do you see

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Speaker 1: with the Vikings here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Vikings have been a weird team because, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they keep winning games, but their point differential has been bad.

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Speaker 2: They've they've gotten pretty fortunate in a lot of their

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Speaker 2: close games. If I were a Vikings fan, what I

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Speaker 2: would have been telling myself all this time is that, Okay,

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Speaker 2: this is all true, but her cousins hasn't been playing

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Speaker 2: that well, so maybe he'll start playing better and then

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Speaker 2: the team will actually be one of the top teams.

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Speaker 2: And yesterday he did play better. Their passing offense was

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Speaker 2: amazing and their defense was just so bad that it

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Speaker 2: didn't matter. So again, we're getting so late into the

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Speaker 2: season that I think it's reasonable to wonder whether they're

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Speaker 2: going to put it together, And that lost yesterday probably

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Speaker 2: knocked them out of a realistic chance of getting the

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Speaker 2: number one seed. And it's pretty hard to see them

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Speaker 2: winning three games in a row against NFC teams to

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Speaker 2: actually win the conference.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the market movement part of

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Speaker 1: the show, and a number of games we could touch on.

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Speaker 1: We will definitely look at Thursday night football San Francisco

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Speaker 1: at Seattle. We'll do that at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: One game I want to touch on here, and we

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Speaker 1: mentioned it earlier the Jags hosting the Cowboys. Now in

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Speaker 1: the off season, this number was three to three and

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Speaker 1: a half, and the look ahead market on Thursday this

386
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 1: was six and a half. And then we saw the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys play, you know, barely beat the Texans. Definitely did

388
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Speaker 1: not cover as big favorites against the lowly Texans. Who

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Speaker 1: are you know, if not the worst team in the league,

390
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Speaker 1: certainly bottom three front runners for the number one pick.

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Speaker 1: And we also saw what the Jags did against the Titans,

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Speaker 1: and so this number reopened at I believe five and

393
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,919
Speaker 1: a half and it has moved to five, and so

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Speaker 1: you know, there are reasons to be interested in what

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Speaker 1: the Jags are doing here. By the way, I'm pulling

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Speaker 1: this number from bet MGM reminder, you can get that

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00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 1: risk free bet of up to one thousand dollars with

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00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 1: the promo code betting Pros with the first deposit. Any

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Speaker 1: thoughts on the market movement here in this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it makes total sense, given you don't

401
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Speaker 2: want to react to when one game from any team.

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Speaker 2: But given what we saw from the Jaguars and given

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Speaker 2: what we saw from the Cowboys, it's not out of

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00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 2: the question that this is going to be a close

405
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 2: game on Sunday, and given us the case, something close

406
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Speaker 2: to seven probably felt like a bit much. And I

407
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Speaker 2: also think the movement from before the season is interesting,

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Speaker 2: where we've seen the Cowboys be a lot better than

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Speaker 2: expected and the Jaguars are probably about what we what

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Speaker 2: we would have expected. But then, yeah, then there's this

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Speaker 2: past week weekend we have to take an account.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this has already gone to four and

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Speaker 1: a half now at Caesars and fan duel, and it

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Speaker 1: would not surprise me if it continued to move in

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Speaker 1: that direction. The Cowboys without right tackle Terrence Steel, who

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Speaker 1: has a torn acl and I believe also mcl so

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Speaker 1: he's out for the year, So there's some uncertainty about

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Speaker 1: what they're going to do with the right tackle position.

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Speaker 1: They are already without two starting cornerbacks, and Trevon Diggs

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Speaker 1: has a thumb injury that he's dealing with, and so

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Speaker 1: even if you assume he's playing, he's not going to

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Speaker 1: be a full health and there's a chance he might

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Speaker 1: not be playing. And so you have a Cowboys pass offense,

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Speaker 1: our pass defense, which you know can be prone to

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Speaker 1: allowing big performances now operating at far less than full capacity,

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Speaker 1: going against a pass offense in the Jags which is

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Speaker 1: starting to come along. So certainly some line movement there

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Speaker 1: I could see. I could see this continuing to move

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Speaker 1: towards the Jags as we get closer to kickoff another

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Speaker 1: game here. We talked about these two teams earlier, the

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Speaker 1: Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I mean, this

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Speaker 1: has been a total flip. In the offseason. You had

433
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: this number for the Bengals plus three, plus three and

434
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: a half, and it has totally flipped. It was minus

435
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: two and a half for the Bengals on the Thursday

436
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 1: look aheadline and it reopened on Sunday at three and

437
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 1: a half. And honestly, given that it's already plus three

438
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 1: and at like where does where does Buccaneers money come in?

439
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 1: If there's even Buccaneers money in the market, Like, who

440
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: is desirous to be betting on the Buccaneers at this

441
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 1: point given what we've seen out of them, like one

442
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the league against the spread,

443
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: and then especially just even like worst teams against against

444
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 1: expectations like general football expectations and so this numbers three

445
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 1: and a half. I haven't seen it move to for

446
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: any sports book, but it would not surprise me if

447
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 1: this line started to move. What are your thoughts here

448
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 1: on this line?

449
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would not feel good taking taking the Buccaneers

450
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: and yeah, they've just been such a disaster. And yeah,

451
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting the flip and the line and

452
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 2: that the Bengals made the Super Bowl last year but

453
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 2: weren't probably weren't expected to be that good this year,

454
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 2: but actually have proven to, as we talked about earlier,

455
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 2: be a much better team than perhaps been expected. And

456
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: we've seen the exact opposite for Tampa Bay. So I

457
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: think that the flip from preseason is appropriate. And yeah,

458
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know what the Buccaneers are going

459
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: to do here going for they just have not good

460
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 2: for a long time.

461
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 1: What is the line that it would have to be

462
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: to make you think, Okay, now I'm betting on the

463
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: Buccaneers seven? You know, like what is you know, like,

464
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: where where is the number?

465
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: Yeah? And actually feel good about it? So I so

466
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: I should say this. I'm on a betting pod here,

467
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: but I'm not a sports better. I think there's a

468
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 2: lot of very useful information in betting markets, which is

469
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 2: why I paid attention to them. But no, nobody should

470
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: care about my betting advice in and of itself. But

471
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 2: that said, yeah, I would. I would never if it

472
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: was less than like four and a half. For sure,

473
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 2: I would not feel good betting on Tampa Bay in

474
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: the situation.

475
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's yeah, we're not We're not near the number yet.

476
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: One one game that you wanted to talk about here,

477
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: and it's you know, it's intriguing because we just saw

478
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,959
Speaker 1: these two teams play each other two weeks ago. You

479
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: have the Washington Commanders hosting the New York Giants. The

480
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: Commanders coming off of the buy this in the off

481
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: season market was three three and a half going towards

482
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: the Commanders, and the look ahead market on Thursday was four.

483
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: Now it is four and a half. And this game

484
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: has been moved to the primetime game here on Sunday

485
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: Night Football. I mean, given that we just saw these

486
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 1: two teams play two weeks ago and it was, you know,

487
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:23,479
Speaker 1: a weird performance that ended in a tie, how are

488
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: you evaluating these teams and thinking about this line here?

489
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 2: Yeah? I had at this game because I thought the

490
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: line movement was interesting because I'm not sure what we like.

491
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: The Giants got killed by the Eagles yesterday, but I'm

492
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: not sure that's exactly surprising. So given that they just

493
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: tied and neither of these teams are that great, I

494
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: think it's interesting that it has moved so hard towards Washington,

495
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 2: who I think is a better team, But I don't

496
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: know if they're four and a half points as a

497
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: home team better than the Giants.

498
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like this is the combination of the

499
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 1: market thinking the Commanders are a little bit better, you know,

500
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: maybe significantly better, but then home field advantage and the

501
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 1: buye the combination of those two things together. But you know,

502
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: I think coming off of the buy, home field advantage

503
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: means a little bit less, and in division home field

504
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: advantage doesn't mean as much as it normally does. And so, yeah,

505
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 1: I know that there are some sharp people who do

506
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: like the Commanders in the spot. I'm on the other

507
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 1: side of it. I prefer the Giants, But yeah, this

508
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: number might be about right, And I think if it

509
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 1: had to go one direction or the other, it's not

510
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: going to go in the favor of the Giants. I

511
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: think it would continue to move towards the Commanders here. Okay,

512
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: one more game that I want to call attention to.

513
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: We mentioned the Rams earlier, and I mentioned how, you know,

514
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: obviously they crushed me on Thursday Night Football last week,

515
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 1: and now we've got them playing on Monday Night Football.

516
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: So even though they're going against the Packers, who are

517
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 1: you know, having full rest off of the bye, the

518
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: Rams are getting sort of like a super mini buy

519
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: from Thursday to Monday night football. And with Baker Mayfield

520
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 1: presumably starting in that game, that extra time I think

521
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 1: means more than it normally would for a quarterback because

522
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: he's just learning the playbook, acclimating to the offense. But

523
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: you know, Aaron Rodgers at home, he's been great historically

524
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: as a favorite. You know, it's not always the case.

525
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: In fact, it's usually not the case that quarterbacks outperform

526
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 1: expectations as favorites, but Aaron Rodgers historically does. And Aaron

527
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: Rodgers off of a bye has historically been good. So

528
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: you're putting all that together in this situation, and the

529
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 1: line movement is just hilarious. I Mean, these are two

530
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: teams the NFL schedule makers had to feel so pleased

531
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: with themselves months ago when they said, you know what

532
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're gonna put these two teams facing

533
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: each other week fifteen, Monday Night football. It's gonna be

534
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 1: like a musty game. Might be one of the games

535
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: of the year, like it could be a preview of

536
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 1: two teams in the NFC Championship game. And I mean, obviously,

537
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: both of these teams have underwhelmed the expectations that people

538
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: had for them. In the preseason market. This was a

539
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 1: pick them, This game was a pick them. And now

540
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: even with the Packers underperforming expectations in the look ahead market,

541
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: this was nine. And then the Rams went out and

542
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 1: beat the Raiders and it moved to seven and a

543
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: half in the look ahead. It opened yesterday yesterday Sunday

544
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: at eight and is now it's seven and a half.

545
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: I gotta say, I like the Packers here, but it

546
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 1: does feel a little bit disgusting to be laying this

547
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 1: big of a number against any team, but this big

548
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: of a number with the Packers here, who have underwhelmed.

549
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on this game in particular and these

550
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: two teams.

551
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is interesting how how the fortunes of these

552
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 2: teams have shifted since last year. Last year they had

553
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: they also played each other very late in the season

554
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 2: and it was a great game. And I'm sure, like

555
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 2: you said, schedule makers were anticipating something similar this year

556
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: and it just hasn't panned up. Yeah, it does feel

557
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 2: like a lot of points for the Packers to be getting,

558
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 2: and they played a lot of bad teams without covering

559
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 2: or even winning, although they have been a little bit

560
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: better recently and they've had their buy and they're at home,

561
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 2: and you could definitely talk yourself into Baker Mayfield struggling

562
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 2: in this environment and having an avalanche of the Packers

563
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 2: just blowing them out. And I don't think that would

564
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: surprise anybody. And I'm sure that's partially why this line

565
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: is so how even though the Packers have not been

566
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 2: blowing teams up recently.

567
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to Thursday night football here. Forty

568
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: nine ers on the road at the Seahawks. Forty nine

569
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: ers favored by three and a half, the over under

570
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: of forty three and a half. Now, man, I gotta

571
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 1: say this has been a weird evaluation because I you know,

572
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: I last week was looking at this number in the

573
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: look ahead market and it was one and a half,

574
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: and I was thinking, okay, brock party, no, you know,

575
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: like mister irrelevant, No, I'm not buying it. And you

576
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: have the Seahawks hosting the Panthers last week, and I

577
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: thought the Seahawks were going to take care of business

578
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: and that this number might have a chance of moving

579
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: to three towards towards the Seahawks. And boy was I

580
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: wrong there. But man, I you know, I locked this

581
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: in a one and a half. By the way, here

582
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: comes the plug, a horrible bet that I made plus

583
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: one and a half on the Seahawks and it's already

584
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: three and a half now. But I bet this in

585
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: the look Ahead market plus one and a half, and

586
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: I logged it in the Betting pros app where you

587
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: can sync up with sportsbooks, get free betting advice and picks,

588
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: and track different experts in your own bets, and you

589
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: can set alerts. We monitor all the major sportsbooks, so

590
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: when one of them has a line move that hits

591
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: a threshold you've set, you get an alert that tells you

592
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: where to make the bet at the book that provides

593
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: the most value. Download the app today in the Apple

594
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: or Google place where Okay, this game. I honestly do

595
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 1: not know what to make of it, because I've adjusted

596
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: to try to account for the fact that I was

597
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: way too low on Rock Party, and I've adjusted that

598
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: I was maybe too enthusiastic about the Seahawks, who I

599
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: think have really found something with Geno Smith. That said,

600
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: I'm still not anywhere close to this number three and

601
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 1: a half. I have this projected at two point twenty five,

602
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: and I don't know. I feel like maybe I'm just

603
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: being too optimistic here on the Seahawks, but I see

604
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: value in the Seahawks here. I don't know you know

605
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: you as the person who loves and hates the Seahawks.

606
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on this matchup here?

607
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 2: So I can start with the pestimistic side, which is

608
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: I think most of the time in the NFL, defense

609
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 2: doesn't move the needle a ton, But if there is

610
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: an if there are a handful of defenses that matter

611
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 2: this year, I think the forty nine Ers defense is

612
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: one of them. And we've seen them shut down the

613
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 2: Dolphins shut down the Buccaneers, for whatever that's worth. And

614
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: last time these two teams played, the Seahawks did not

615
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 2: score an offensive point, So there's one path that this

616
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: game takes where the forty nine Ers defense dominates and

617
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: the Seahawks just cannot do anything on offense. And I

618
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: think this is more likely than I would have thought,

619
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: like a month ago or something, But the Seahawks offense

620
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 2: has just not been the same offense that it was

621
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 2: the first five weeks of the season or so, where

622
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 2: they they've struggled even against the Rams backups and the Panthers,

623
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: and they just haven't been as explosive. So as from

624
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 2: a Seax fan perspective, I think that's reason number one

625
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: that this game worries me. And then reason number two

626
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: is the Seahawks defense just cannot stop anybody on the ground.

627
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 2: The Raiders ran for a billion yards and Josh Jacobs

628
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: had forty Fantasy points or whatever, and then even the

629
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: Rams had a decent run game, and then of course

630
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: the Panthers yesterday barely needed to throw the ball because

631
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: the Seahawks can't stop their run game. And if there's

632
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: a team whose run game you might be scared of,

633
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,719
Speaker 2: it would be the forty nine Ers against the Seahawks,

634
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 2: I think, and the forty Niners haven't always had a

635
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: dominant run game despite Shanahan's reputation, But given how poor

636
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: the Seahawks have been at stopping their run, I think

637
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: that is going to be a serious challenge for them

638
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: as well. The one glimmer of hope I guess for

639
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 2: the Seahawks is that the status of Perty is in question.

640
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 2: So if it really is their four string quarterback, then

641
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: that's when you would think that the Seahawks would have

642
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: the most chance to win this game. But otherwise, I

643
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: think it's just a bad matchup for a Seahawks team

644
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: that has not been playing that well recently.

645
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: What do you see as the kind of stepping outside

646
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: having a little more of a macro conversation here, but

647
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: the long term for Seattle and so you know, there's

648
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: the possibility of resigning Gino Smith. They have these first

649
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: round draft picks coming to them, and you know that

650
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 1: those can be some pretty good picks. With how poorly

651
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 1: the Broncos have played this year. They had a good draft.

652
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: You know, got to two tackles for the offensive line,

653
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: starting to rebuild the defense. They've got some pieces there.

654
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: So what do you see as the future?

655
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think the big question is what they're

656
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 2: going to do at quarterback, and that that's kind of

657
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: question a before all other questions, and then the other

658
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: dominoes would fall into place from that. It kind of

659
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 2: sounds like, if we believe the sources of rumors or whatever,

660
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: that their their goal is to resign Geno Smith, which

661
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 2: I would have been one thousand percent on board with

662
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: maybe a month or two ago, but his his play

663
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: and the overall play of the offense just haven't been

664
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 2: as high where I don't think it's a no brainer

665
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: anymore to want to sign them to a market level

666
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: deal when you do have what is right now the

667
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 2: number two pick in the draft in a draft where

668
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: there are quarterback prospects, just given the advantage of having

669
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: a quarterback in the rookie contract and all the costings

670
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 2: for that. But I'm not running the Seahawks. They never

671
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 2: do what I want them to do anyway, So I'm

672
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: just gonna assume that they will resign Geno Smith, and

673
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: then they have something like four picks in the top

674
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: forty or something like that with their pick and the

675
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 2: broadcast pick not top forty. It depends on where their

676
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 2: own pick bench is this season, but four very high picks,

677
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: and I'm assuming they will spend most of that on

678
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 2: improving the defense, because the defense has just been for

679
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: the most part of this season very bad. And I'm

680
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 2: sure that's killing Pete Carroll inside because his background as

681
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 2: a defensive back and defensive coordinator and that's his baby,

682
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 2: and I'm sure he wants his defense to be good,

683
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 2: and if it takes pouring a bunch of resources into

684
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: the defense over the off season, then I'm guessing that's

685
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 2: what he's going to be.

686
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 1: All right, Ben, awesome stuff. Thanks for joining us. Tell

687
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 1: the people where to fall hell you on social and

688
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 1: where to find your work.

689
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: Yep, I'm on Twitter at Ben b Baldwin and links

690
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: to everything else on there too.

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00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: Thanks for having us, all right, he's been Baldwin. I'm

692
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: Matthew Freeman, Matt f the Oracle. Check out Betting Pros

693
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros for all of my work best best

694
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings and more.

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00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for this week fifteen Market

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00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: Movement Empower Ratings edition of the Betting Pros Pot. If

697
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: you'd like the show, please rate interview on your favorite

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00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 1: podcast app. Thanks for tuning in, Good luck and see

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00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: you next episode,