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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 1: Good morning and welcome to Counterpoints. Emily. Really big show today,

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Speaker 1: really big show.

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Speaker 4: Also, we've had nothing but crazy news cycles for the

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Speaker 4: past six plus months. This is one of the craziest

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Speaker 4: news cycles. So many hearings. Yeah, just today, I mean

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Speaker 4: Rubio Pambondi, John Ratcliffe, Chris Right, Sean Duffy, it's just

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Speaker 4: absolutely stuffed. Yesterday with Pete Heigsath. We have the TikTok

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Speaker 4: band covering here on the show. Today, Huge news and

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Speaker 4: you guys at Breaking Points had a great scoop on

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Speaker 4: what's going on with the ceasefire negotiations.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I was just thinking, I really do hope that

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Speaker 5: Sager's alien invasion holds off because I want to see

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Speaker 5: how the next four years plays out.

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Speaker 1: You're curiously, I really am.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you can't read the last page of the

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Speaker 4: book First Life.

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Speaker 5: It's going to be interesting, and I'm curious what would

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Speaker 5: happen in the event of an alien invasion too, obviously,

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Speaker 5: but we can get that later. Like, I want to

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Speaker 5: see this whole thing because to your point, the Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump I was gonna about say the Trump administration, but

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump and his kind of real estate tycoon that

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Speaker 5: he assigned to create a ceasefire deal between Israel and

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Speaker 5: Hamas is on the brink of pulling off. We're going

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Speaker 5: to talk to Jeremy Skahill in just a moment, who's

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Speaker 5: been in contact with a lot of people involved in this,

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Speaker 5: so he's gonna he's gonna break down what the deal

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Speaker 5: actually looks like and how we got to this place.

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Speaker 1: But quite quite incredible. I still stand by my prediction.

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Speaker 5: That is going to drag this all the way out

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Speaker 5: to the nineteenth Yes to ink the like final details.

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Speaker 5: Hope I'm wrong, but overnight, Israel was ramping up air

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Speaker 5: strikes all across Gaza. There was video that emerged from

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Speaker 5: Unicarawi of them blowing up a mosque in northern Gaza yesterday,

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Speaker 5: just kind of because they can. And there's a couple

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Speaker 5: of days left until they signed the thing, but we're

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Speaker 5: getting very close.

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Speaker 4: So we're going to start with that news. We're going

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Speaker 4: to run down the Heggsath hearing from yesterday, do an update.

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Speaker 1: On wild one.

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Speaker 4: It was a wild one, although by Trump era standards

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Speaker 4: you have sort of medium medium insanity. We'll do an

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Speaker 4: update on a crazy story about landlords in the Los

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Speaker 4: Angeles area. We'll talk about the migration from TikTok to

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Speaker 4: Red Note. And we actually have a Prince, professor of

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Speaker 4: astrophysics joining the show today to talk about how Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump could potentially set us so up for a Nobel Peace.

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Speaker 1: Prize reado Peace Prizes.

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Speaker 5: He wrote this essay for Fox News before Trump kind

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Speaker 5: of slammed a ceasefire on Israel, which, frankly, in another

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Speaker 5: kind of world, could generate a Nobel Peace Prize for

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Speaker 5: an American president. Donald Trump has a steeper hill to

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Speaker 5: climb to win that prize because he's Donald Trump, and

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Speaker 5: it's ludicrous to consider him getting a Nobel Peace Prize.

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Speaker 5: But he lays out, you know how, over the next

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Speaker 5: four years he's actually set up to resolve three major

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Speaker 5: sources of conflict and could legitimately deserve if he pulled

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Speaker 5: that off, three Nobel Peace prizes.

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Speaker 4: And potentially take us a little bit further from the brink,

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Speaker 4: to the extent that we possibly can be of.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to pull back from the brank free.

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Speaker 4: Yeses Iranian president is giving interviews to American media and

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Speaker 4: VC News in particular, so we will have updates on

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Speaker 4: all of that. As a reminder, Breakingpoints dot com that's

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Speaker 4: where you can get a premium subscription and Ryan, if

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Speaker 4: you can't get a premium.

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Speaker 5: Subcurity like and subscribe, you tell your friends share it.

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Speaker 5: It helps you flip it and put it on social

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Speaker 5: because we don't really do that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true. Shout out to Hull. Yes, I'm told

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Speaker 4: we have Jeremy scahe you're calling it dropsite on the

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Speaker 4: line here to help us break down the huge news

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Speaker 4: about there.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring Jeremy in. Jeremy, how you doing.

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Speaker 6: All right? You know, pins and needles, hoping that this

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Speaker 6: goes through.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's actually let's start back in May to

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Speaker 5: bring people up to up to speed here.

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Speaker 1: So May May of twenty twenty four, that was the.

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Speaker 5: Maybe the first time since the November twenty twenty three

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Speaker 5: exchange of prisoners between Israel and Masha there was that

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Speaker 5: one week ceasefire. What happens in what happens in May

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Speaker 5: and what has what has kind of changed since then

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Speaker 5: that got us to this place.

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Speaker 6: Well, in May, Joe Biden comes out publicly and says

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Speaker 6: that he's reached what he called the monumental point in

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Speaker 6: the seasfire negotiation and that he has gotten assurances from

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Speaker 6: Is that they'll move forward with a deal and the

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Speaker 6: basic outlines of it are almost identical to what is

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Speaker 6: now being negotiated. That's the first thing that should should

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Speaker 6: just be put on the table they move forward. Then

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Speaker 6: they get the United Nations Security Council to officially endorse

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Speaker 6: this what they called the Biden Framework, But actually many

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Speaker 6: of the tenets of it came from this sort of

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Speaker 6: backdoor discussions between Anthony blinkln Brett McGirk, Bill Burns, the

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Speaker 6: director of the CIA, and the Israelis to make sure

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Speaker 6: that when Biden goes out and says, hey, this thing

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Speaker 6: is monumental, that it wasn't going to like blow up

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Speaker 6: in the White House's face. Well, lo and behold. Then

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Speaker 6: Hamas is presented with these terms. There's the back and

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Speaker 6: forth that always happens in these which is at the

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Speaker 6: technical level. So when you hear people saying, oh, Israel

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Speaker 6: accepted this or Hamas accepted this, what they're talking about

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Speaker 6: usually is they've accepted the broad framework. And then where

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Speaker 6: the real sort of problems start to occur, as when

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Speaker 6: you start talking about technical details. For instance, you know,

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Speaker 6: as of this morning, there were still there was still

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Speaker 6: back and forth going on in Doha over a number

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Speaker 6: of technical issues. The Israelis didn't provide maps to the

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Speaker 6: Palestinian side showing where their forces would be withdrawn from

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Speaker 6: and where they would be repositioned. And the Palestinians are

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Speaker 6: concerned that if they leave any vagueness, the Israelis are

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Speaker 6: going to exploit it. So I just give that as

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Speaker 6: like one example. So you have technical issues, and all

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Speaker 6: indications are that these issues right now are being resolved,

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Speaker 6: but going back to over the summer, they then get

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Speaker 6: to that phase of it where you normally would be

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Speaker 6: discussing like implementation, and then the Israelis start to put

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Speaker 6: in what Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad negotiators said totally

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Speaker 6: new terms that had to do with the Israelis wanting

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Speaker 6: to remain in Rafa, to keep control of the Philadelphi corridor,

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Speaker 6: to keep control of the net Serene corridor. So Hamas

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Speaker 6: is saying, wait, wait a minute, we agreed to what

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Speaker 6: Biden said was a monumental framework that the United Nations endorse.

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Speaker 6: We now need more time, and then they start the narrative, Oh,

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Speaker 6: Hamas refuses to accept the deal. Well, then what happens

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Speaker 6: is you have this back and forth where the Americans

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Speaker 6: come back to the Arab mediators who say to Hamas, listen,

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Speaker 6: would you accept this phrasing in the deal that the

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Speaker 6: Americans have said Israel will accept if you guys do.

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Speaker 6: Hamas then deliberates on it, and then on July second,

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Speaker 6: Hamas officially informs the mediators from Qatar and Egypt, yes,

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Speaker 6: we will accept the American amended ceasefire proposal. The Americans

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Speaker 6: then go back to Israel and Nenya, who says no, no, no,

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Speaker 6: no no. The circumstances have changed, and then what happens

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Speaker 6: is you have this string of assassinations where Israel assassinates

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Speaker 6: Ismail Hania, the top negotiator for Hamas, and they do

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Speaker 6: it in Tehran at a guesthouse that's controlled by the

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Speaker 6: most elite military force in Iran. You then have the

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Speaker 6: the pager bomb plum, the pager bomb plot in Lebanon,

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Speaker 6: the wiping out of not only the senior echelons of

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Speaker 6: Hesbalab but also Hassan Nosrela. Then you have the bombings

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Speaker 6: of Iran, the Iranians attacking Israel, the fall of the

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Speaker 6: regime in Syria, which Netanyahu took credit for. And so

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Speaker 6: basically what happened then Ryan last summer was that Biden

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Speaker 6: goes out in front of the world. He says, hey,

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Speaker 6: we're on the brink of something here. The Israelis just

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Speaker 6: shove it in his face, turn around and then escalate

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Speaker 6: the war even further, and Biden rewards them, not punishes them,

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Speaker 6: rewards them by showering billions of dollars more in US

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Speaker 6: weapons on them and then openly endorsing the Israelis setting

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Speaker 6: fire to the Middle East. And basically there's been no

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Speaker 6: discussion of a ceasefire since then until Donald Trump. First

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Speaker 6: of all, he campaigns, you know, sort of to the

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Speaker 6: left of Kamala Harris in some ways on this issue.

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Speaker 6: It was a little bit contradictory because on the one hand,

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Speaker 6: you have you know, Trump saying there's never been a

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Speaker 6: more pro Israel president or candidate in American history, and

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Speaker 6: he wants Netanyahu to finish the job. On the other hand,

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Speaker 6: he does what the Democrats were doing. He goes and

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Speaker 6: he meets with a ton of Arab political and religious

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Speaker 6: and civic leaders, including in Michigan where you had this

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Speaker 6: uncommitted movement where many logical Democratic voters were begging the

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Speaker 6: Harris campaign to pay attention to them, and many many

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Speaker 6: Arabs in the United States felt like they were just

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Speaker 6: being kind of spat upon by the Democrats. And so

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Speaker 6: whatever you think about Donald Trump's efforts, there was an

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Speaker 6: actual effort there. Trump then wins the election and he

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Speaker 6: starts saying things like there's going to be hell to

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Speaker 6: pay if there's not a deal. Now, much of the

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Speaker 6: reporting on that was you know, sort of spun as

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Speaker 6: he's threatening Hamas that some you know, unknown horror is

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Speaker 6: going to you know, befall Hamas. First of all, what

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Speaker 6: worse could possibly happen to the Palestinian people of Gaza

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Speaker 6: right now? I mean, this is a way of letting

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden off the hook because this has been a

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Speaker 6: scorched earth genocide. But if you really paid attention, what

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Speaker 6: Trump was doing was saying not just to Hamas, this

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Speaker 6: needs to get done, but also to Israel. And you know,

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Speaker 6: there's a lot of people make fun of the people

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Speaker 6: that Trump chooses for his positions, but you know, Trump

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Speaker 6: is choosing people that he believes can quote unquote make

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Speaker 6: a deal. So he taps Steve Whitkoff to be his

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Speaker 6: Special Envoy to the Middle East, who is kind of

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Speaker 6: a fellow real estate tycoon. And you know, by all accounts,

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Speaker 6: what has occurred is that for his own reasons, Trump

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Speaker 6: has made it very clear to the Israelis that a

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Speaker 6: deal needs to be done in time for his inauguration.

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Speaker 6: We can talk about what Trump's motivations might be here,

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Speaker 6: but Trump is showing that the power of the office

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Speaker 6: of the Presidency is vast, and it exposes the fact

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Speaker 6: that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris systematically refused to ever

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Speaker 6: take any actions, and there are many they could have

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Speaker 6: taken to force a c fire. The US has enormous

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Speaker 6: power and influence over Israel, and Joe Biden partially for

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Speaker 6: his own ideological support of Israel and partially because these

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Speaker 6: guys just got rickrolled by Netanyahu just never did it

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Speaker 6: bed rolled.

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Speaker 4: So let's put up a one because this obviously brings

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Speaker 4: us to today. Israel and Hamas agree in principle as

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Speaker 4: CBS News puts it to ceasefire and hostage deal. You

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Speaker 4: guys reported that at drop site as well, and this

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Speaker 4: is what we're here to talk about. But if we

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Speaker 4: move on to a two Reuters flashes out some of

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Speaker 4: the bullet points of the ceasefire deal in ways that

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Speaker 4: I know Jeremy and Ryan both can help us break

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Speaker 4: down a little bit troop withdrawal, increased aid, future governance

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Speaker 4: of Gaza. So what can both of you hostage return

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Speaker 4: obviously as part of that. So what can both of

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Speaker 4: you tell us about for what's actually part of this

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Speaker 4: tug of war? What's on the table right now? And

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Speaker 4: how could it go wrong in the same way that Jeremy,

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Speaker 4: we saw it, as you mentioned, go wrong back in

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Speaker 4: the summer.

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Speaker 6: So you know, this is structured as a three phase deal.

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Speaker 6: Each of the phases are envisioned to be forty two days.

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Speaker 6: The first phase of this emily would be the exchange

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Speaker 6: of thirty three captives and hostages held in Gaza right

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Speaker 6: now that are categorized as being in humanitarian releases. So

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Speaker 6: this would be anyone under the age of nineteen, including

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Speaker 6: you know, there are a couple of very small children

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Speaker 6: that are still being held in Gaza, and we understand

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Speaker 6: that the first three hostages that would be released in

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Speaker 6: this exchange of captives would be the members of the

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Speaker 6: Bebas family. People may remember that there was a nine

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Speaker 6: month old baby, Kafir Bebas, who was taken from the

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Speaker 6: kibbutz of near Oz on October seventh, along with his

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Speaker 6: brother Ariel and the mother and father. And so the

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Speaker 6: mother and those two children are widely believed to be

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Speaker 6: the first three people that are going to be handed over.

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Speaker 6: And then they've created a mathematical formula for each Israeli civilian,

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Speaker 6: a certain number of Palestinian prisoners or captives are going

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Speaker 6: to be released. You know, Israel still holding several hundred

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Speaker 6: children minors in their custody. You know, we talk a

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Speaker 6: lot about Israeli hostages. There are Palestinian hostages, you know,

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Speaker 6: in the dozens and hundreds being held by Israel right now.

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Speaker 6: Also there are going to be There are five female

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Speaker 6: Israeli soldiers that are being held in Gaza, and the

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Speaker 6: numbers start to increase in terms of the number of

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Speaker 6: Palestinians that will be freed from Israeli prisons in return

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Speaker 6: for any military figures. So the first round would include

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Speaker 6: only these five female Israeli hostages or prisoners, and then

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Speaker 6: you have also older people or sick people. This first

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Speaker 6: phase would have what's called the temporary cessation of hostilities,

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Speaker 6: meaning that there would be a ceasing of fire, but

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Speaker 6: this is not a permanent ceasefire. And two weeks into

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Speaker 6: this exchange where you would have a sort of in phases,

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Speaker 6: Israelis and internationals being held in Gaza being released and

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Speaker 6: then Palestinians being released as well. Two weeks into it,

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Speaker 6: you then start to have discussions about the mechanism for

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Speaker 6: implementing the second phase, and the second phase would start

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Speaker 6: to increase the number of captives that are exchanged between

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Speaker 6: the two sides. And it's in this phase where the

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Speaker 6: draft agreement calls for an actual ceasefire and the withdrawal

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Speaker 6: of Israeli forces. In that first phase, you'll start to

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Speaker 6: have some pullback of the Israelis. There is still debate

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Speaker 6: over kind of what kind of buffer zone is going

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Speaker 6: to exist. The Israeli game, though, seems to be and

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Speaker 6: this is certainly what people like Ben Gavie and Smotrich

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Speaker 6: are openly saying, but it's also quite mainstream, is that

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Speaker 6: the Israelis are approaching this from let's just view this

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Speaker 6: as we're making a deal over phase one. Yes, Trump

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Speaker 6: is telling us we need to have this more comprehensive agreement,

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Speaker 6: but wink, wink, nod, nod. We know that it's very

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Speaker 6: easy to say Humas violated this and we're back into

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Speaker 6: the game. So the Palestinian negotiators I'm dealing with, they're

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Speaker 6: very well aware of this, and this is part of

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Speaker 6: why they're insisting on like really exact maps from the Israelis,

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Speaker 6: really exact timeline, so that they can go back to

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Speaker 6: the mediators and say, you know, this is a violation

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Speaker 6: by Israel. And then the final phase has to do

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Speaker 6: with reconstruction and who would govern Gaza. But a lot

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Speaker 6: of people aren't even so focused on that right now.

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Speaker 6: You know, for Palestinian people of Gaza, they need this

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Speaker 6: to stop. And you know, we know that at least

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Speaker 6: forty six thousand Palestinians have been killed. Those numbers are

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Speaker 6: almost certainly a massive undercount, so you know, people are desperate.

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Speaker 6: We're hearing this from our reporters on the ground inside

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Speaker 6: of Gaza. It's a horror show that's happening. And Israel

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Speaker 6: has a long history of really intensifying the attacks against

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Speaker 6: Gaza before any kind of a deal is made. So

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Speaker 6: that's sort of where things stand right now. But I

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Speaker 6: don't think we can understate the role that Donald Trump's

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Speaker 6: posture has played in the timing of this.

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Speaker 4: It's it is.

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Speaker 6: If this gets pulled off, the timing will be almost

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Speaker 6: entirely a result not of Joe Biden's supposed tireless work

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Speaker 6: around the clock, but of Donald Trump basically saying it

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Speaker 6: is over. And you know, maybe it's over for a

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Speaker 6: few weeks, but you know it's going to be over

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Speaker 6: at some point for some period of time, and it's

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Speaker 6: largely going to because of Trump's intervention.

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Speaker 1: And you don't have to take that from us.

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Speaker 5: You can take that from Israeli media and Israeli politicians,

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Speaker 5: and to you to your point about Ben Gavie, we

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Speaker 5: could put up a three here. There is this remarkable

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Speaker 5: moment where on Monday the was Anthony Blanken was giving

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Speaker 5: a speech saying that we're all just sitting around here

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Speaker 5: waiting for Hamas to accept the deal. After Hamas had

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Speaker 5: publicly accepted the basically accepted the framework. Meanwhile, I've got

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Speaker 5: Ben Gavere here, who on in a post and also

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Speaker 5: in a speech that he posts to Twitter, said very

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Speaker 5: openly and it admitted that over the past year and

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Speaker 5: a half he and his political forces had scuttled, you know,

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Speaker 5: many many hostage deals by using their political power to

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Speaker 5: block those deals. It was kind of a remarkable split

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Speaker 5: screen where you have Blincoln just you can't tell if

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Speaker 5: he's just a kind of confused old man with dementia

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Speaker 5: who's just kind of repeating what he's been saying. You know,

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Speaker 5: historically it was never true before when he was saying

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Speaker 5: it as you laid out, but it was so flagrantly

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Speaker 5: a lie on Monday when you to have the entire

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Speaker 5: Israeli media on the right and people like Ben Gavern's

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Speaker 5: Mochriz saying this is a horrible deal. It's being forced

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Speaker 5: on us, while at the same time Blincoln saying it's

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Speaker 5: a Hamas that won't take the deal.

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Speaker 1: What do you draw, how.

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Speaker 5: Would you characterize the as kind of Israeli media response

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Speaker 5: and what conclusions can you draw?

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Speaker 4: And before Germany you answer that, Let's roll this clip

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Speaker 4: of blinken.

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Speaker 1: This is a yes, people can hear what he says.

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Speaker 7: We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new

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Speaker 7: militants as it is lost. That is a recipe for

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Speaker 7: an enduring insurgency and perpetual war. The longer the war

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Speaker 7: goes on, the worse the Umani Tran situation gets in.

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Speaker 5: Gozen, right, and there's blink and saying that they have

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Speaker 5: not accomplished anything.

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Speaker 8: Go ahead, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 6: Mean, first just to take you know what Blincoln just

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Speaker 6: said there, and then I'll trust the ben Gever part

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Speaker 6: of this. You know, this is counterinsurgency, you know history

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Speaker 6: one oh one. I mean, if you put people in

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Speaker 6: an open air prison camp, if you deprive them of

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Speaker 6: the right to nonviolent resistance, if you deprive them of

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Speaker 6: food and put them on a calorie restricted diet, which

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Speaker 6: the Israelis have done. If you dehumanize them, kill their parents,

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Speaker 6: repeatedly tell them that there's no such thing as a Palestinian,

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Speaker 6: you're going to leave the only option available to people

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Speaker 6: who believe in fighting for their dignity to take up

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Speaker 6: arms against their occupier or the colonial power that's invading them. So,

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Speaker 6: you know, we could have told Anthony blinkn that this

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Speaker 6: would happen on October sixth if they don't stop this

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Speaker 6: policy that you're going and it's and by the way,

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Speaker 6: it's not just that people are like joining Hamas. What

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Speaker 6: we're talking about here is people deciding that they're going

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Speaker 6: to be part of the armed resistance against what they

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Speaker 6: put what they very clearly view as a brutal, gratuitous

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Speaker 6: colonial occupying power backed by the United States and other

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Speaker 6: major Western powers. So you know, Anthony Blinkin is going

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Speaker 6: to be like for years to come, waking up in

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Speaker 6: the morning going to his mirror and saying it's up

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Speaker 6: to Hamas. Now, I mean, he's got some weird tick

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Speaker 6: where he's just constantly lying about that dimension of this.

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Speaker 6: And we could talk about, you know, blinkn A as

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Speaker 6: a kind of neo Kissinger at some point. But to

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Speaker 6: get back to Ben Gavier, you know, part of this

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Speaker 6: is true that the fact that Netyahu's political stability depended

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Speaker 6: on building this coalition with Benavier and Smotrich. But in

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Speaker 6: recent weeks and months, he's he's been able to broaden

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Speaker 6: his coalition out a little bit, so he doesn't actually

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Speaker 6: need their votes in order to get this thing through.

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Speaker 6: And I think part of this plays to net Yahu's

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Speaker 6: favor to sort of, you know, have these guys on

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Speaker 6: his right flank making this kind of noise. I mean,

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Speaker 6: net and Yahu is the one that sabotaged the deal,

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Speaker 6: not Bengavier. And it wasn't only because Smotrich and Ben

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Speaker 6: Gavier were there. It was because Netanyaho knew he had

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Speaker 6: the political support and it wasn't going to harm him

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Speaker 6: politically to keep sabotaging these deals. But now you have

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Speaker 6: a different equation where he doesn't so much need these

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Speaker 6: guys and you know, Trump and company. I think part

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Speaker 6: of this for net Yahoo is he's hoping that by

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Speaker 6: working with Trump that Trump is going to help him

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Speaker 6: politically as well. It's not entirely about the Gaza deal.

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Speaker 6: You know, there are questions about what have Trump people

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Speaker 6: offered net Yahu in response. Certainly one of the big

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Speaker 6: prizes would be normalization with Saudi Arabia. That would be

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Speaker 6: a huge victory for net Nyahu, especially if it doesn't

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Speaker 6: include a very clear establishment of a Palestinian state. There's

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Speaker 6: the you know, belligerence towards Iran and the potential to

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Speaker 6: start striking Iranian nuclear sites or you know, down the

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Speaker 6: line to try to enact regime change. Trump has been

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Speaker 6: giving indications that may that may not be the full

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Speaker 6: direction that he wants to go in, but let's just

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Speaker 6: say it's out there. Annexation of the West Bank, these

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Speaker 6: are all things that potentially are on the table. But

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Speaker 6: net Yahoo primarily is concerned with Net Nyahu. Let's let's

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Speaker 6: you know, keep that very clear. And I think that

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Speaker 6: part of what's happening here is that there is some

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Speaker 6: behind the scenes maneuvering between Netanyahu's camp and Trump's camp

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Speaker 6: to look at how can Net Nyaho's neck be saved

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Speaker 6: politically as part of this apparent capitulation on the Gaza ceasefire.

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Speaker 8: Terms.

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Speaker 4: When reports that won't help we can put a five

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Speaker 4: up include this one about Steve Whitcoff basically calling now,

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Speaker 4: who's bluff about Chabot. I think this was from Haretz,

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Speaker 4: and it makes me think, Jeremy that the clip of

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Speaker 4: Ben Gavie, we already talked about instances like this. You know,

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Speaker 4: a week from now, Donald Trump will be the president

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Speaker 4: of the United States, and I can only think that,

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Speaker 4: unlike with Biden and Blanken, that telegraphing from people like

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Speaker 4: Ben Gavier will infuriate a potential Trump administration.

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Speaker 5: Going yeah, and before you answer, I just wanted to

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Speaker 5: read for people what I think is an interesting the

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Speaker 5: kind of choice that people in Washington would mock Trump

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Speaker 5: for but clearly panned out for him.

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Speaker 1: And this is from Haretz.

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Speaker 5: They write Witcoff and this is Witkoff is the guy

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Speaker 5: who uh you know, called up whose aides and we're

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Speaker 5: going to meet on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Aids are like, well, you know that's the Sabbath. Can't

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Speaker 1: really bb can't really meet.

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Speaker 5: And Witkoff knows that who's secular, doesn't doesn't care about

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Speaker 5: He's like, don't get me this crap. We're meeting on Saturday,

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Speaker 5: and they meet on Saturday that gives him the kind

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Speaker 5: of dominance in the meeting, and he steam rolls Nan

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Speaker 5: Yah who, how Retz writes, Witcoff is a Jewish real

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Speaker 5: estate investor and developer who is close to Trump. He

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Speaker 5: doesn't have the background of the kind of people who

435
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 5: usually filled diplomatic roles. Quote wick Coough isn't a diplomat,

436
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 5: He doesn't talk like a diplomat. He has no interest

437
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 5: in diplomatic manners and diplomatic protocols, says a senior Israeli

438
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 5: diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. He's a businessman

439
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 5: who wants to reach a deal quickly and charges ahead

440
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 5: unusually aggressively. So that kind of appointment is the kind

441
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 5: that gets mocked here in DC. But that does seem

442
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 5: like the kind of guy you want to send into

443
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 5: the meeting and tell Nen Yaho, what part of this

444
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 5: don't you understand?

445
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 4: Well, there's a difference between Rex Tillerson and Steve Whitcoffe's exactly, yes, trying.

446
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 6: To right so, and I mean the Rex Tillerson analogy,

447
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 6: it's a really it's actually a really good one because

448
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 6: you know Tillerson, and I think we're going to see

449
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 6: some of this with like with little Marco Rubio as well,

450
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 6: go down where you know the people that end up

451
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 6: in Trump's orbit that have been part of the machine

452
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 6: or part of kind of the you know, the the

453
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 6: elite inner circle, they always have kind of a split

454
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 6: loyalty from Trump's perspective. They're not just loyal to Trump,

455
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,959
Speaker 6: they also are thinking about sort of the bigger picture

456
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 6: of the American empire and American institution. And so, you know,

457
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 6: when Trump has like kind of his own people there,

458
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 6: on the one hand, it causes like, you know, sort

459
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 6: of the apocalypse has come to town among the blob.

460
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 6: But on the other hand, I think if you're someone

461
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 6: like Yahoo and you've got like, you know, Steve Whitcoff,

462
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 6: someone none of these people had ever heard of before

463
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 6: coming in, but you know he's there for Trump, it's

464
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 6: like you're talking to Trump. Whereas if you have like

465
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 6: an Anthony Blinkn there, you can manage Anthony blink and

466
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 6: you can spin Antony Blink and you can make an

467
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 6: absolute fool of Anthony Blinkn. But in this case, it's

468
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 6: like Trump kind of mafia style. It's like, this is

469
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 6: my consiglieri that you're going to be talking to, and

470
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 6: if you what you say to him, you say to me,

471
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 6: that can be very effective. Whatever we think about it,

472
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 6: whatever norms it breaks, it can be very effective. I

473
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 6: do want a caution here, one note of caution. While

474
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 6: I do think that, you know, there are truths to

475
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 6: all of this, and I've also heard it from the

476
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 6: Palestinian side that they're saying, like, you know, somehow Trump's

477
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 6: people have gotten like issue X to be a non

478
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 6: issue now. So, like I've heard, tangible results have been

479
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 6: achieved because of the shift in tactics. That's real. But

480
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 6: I also think that net and Yahoo and some of

481
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 6: his people might be playing up some of this for

482
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 6: their own reasons. It sends some of the fire toward Trump,

483
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 6: who's enormously popular in Israel. This is by no means

484
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,239
Speaker 6: going to damage Trump's standing in Israel, no matter how

485
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 6: many commentators whine about it on TV. So I would

486
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 6: just be careful. I wouldn't over sell the idea that

487
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 6: like Trump's people really put Netanyahu in a corner. I

488
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 6: think there's truth to it, and I've heard it also

489
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 6: from the Palestinian side, But I do think that there

490
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 6: is some spin at play here because it in a

491
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 6: way it does benefit Netnyaho and I think met Yahoo's

492
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 6: probas at the end of the day is his own

493
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 6: political and personal fate more than it is anything about Israel.

494
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 6: And in that way, he and Trump have some great similarities.

495
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 4: And Trump reposted that wild Jeffrey Sachs critique of Netna

496
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 4: who on truth Social at the.

497
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: End of the day as well.

498
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 6: You know, if you talk to Palestinians too, they many

499
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 6: Palestinians who follow this stuff closely are aware also of

500
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 6: a variety of things that happened during Trump's first term

501
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 6: where Trump genuinely, for instance, seemed to like Mahmud debas.

502
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 6: You know, Trump really seemed to be interested in some

503
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 6: form of a deal that would lead to Palestinian statehood,

504
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 6: something that Netnyaho would never even consider under Joe Biden.

505
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 6: You know, so there there are wild cards here, and

506
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 6: you know, again we've talked about this on the show before.

507
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 6: Trump at the end of the day, he's not like

508
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 6: a normal, ordinary person, but he is not a creature

509
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 6: of the Washington swamp, and that can be dangerous in

510
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 6: some ways, but it also has its benefits. He really

511
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 6: really doesn't care about what the Henry Kissingers of the world,

512
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 6: or Anthony Blinkn's of the world for that matter, believe

513
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 6: should be the norm of America's standing in the world.

514
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 6: It cuts both ways, but in this case, it could

515
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 6: at least give some relief to the Palestinians of Gaza

516
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 6: who are suffering under an unconscionable genocide that Joe Biden

517
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 6: could have ended long ago.

518
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 5: And there's also been reporting over the last year that

519
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 5: Miriam Addelson, Sheldon Adelson's widow, I guess, offered something like

520
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 5: one hundred million dollars a Trump's campaign, basically in exchange

521
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 5: for a direct quid pro quo of allowing Israel to

522
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 5: annex the West Bank. Talk a little bit about what's

523
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 5: going on in the West Bank the last few days,

524
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 5: and what do you think the price might be for

525
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 5: the West Bank to get this ceasefire.

526
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,959
Speaker 4: And let's also note Miriam Maidelson is just announced yesterday

527
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 4: co hosting an inaugural ball with Mark Zuckerberg on Trump's behalf.

528
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 4: Still very much just.

529
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 6: Wild bedfellows are emerging in this whole thing, whole other discussion. Look,

530
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 6: it's a it's an incendiary situation right now in the

531
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 6: West Bank. I mean we had just last night the

532
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 6: Israelis did air strikes in Janine, killing you know a

533
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 6: number of people. The Palestinian Authority itself, which is viewed

534
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 6: by many Palestinians as kind of an extension or an

535
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 6: agent of the Israeli occupation, has been waging paramilitary campaign

536
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 6: to go after armed resistance factions right before the Israelis

537
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 6: actually did this book there.

538
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 5: People should read, by the way, Marian Barguti's piece and

539
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 5: drop site on the ground reporting about this PA led

540
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 5: assault on fighters, and yeah it was.

541
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 6: I mean, it's the it's the most you know, significant

542
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 6: military operation that the Palestinian authority has done under the

543
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 6: areas of its nominal control in recent memory. And you know,

544
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 6: people in the West Bank, I think are are now

545
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 6: living in a state of incredible uncertainty. You and and Dane.

546
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 6: You have new you know, really empowered, violent extremist settlers

547
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 6: that are attacking Palestinians, stealing Palestinian land. They're being backed

548
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 6: by the official forces of the Israeli state. You have

549
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 6: net Nyahu and his government moving forward with trying to

550
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 6: annex further territory, build more settlements. You then have the

551
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 6: Palestinian Authority engaging in its paramilitary operations inside of the

552
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 6: West Bank, and now Israel once again bombing in the

553
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 6: in the West Bank. If there's a Gaza ceasefire deal, Uh,

554
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 6: then I think you're going to see and I'm hearing

555
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 6: this from Palestinians on the ground and intensification of Israeli

556
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 6: operations in the West Bank itself. So, you know, the

557
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 6: even even though we may get a break from some

558
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 6: of this, the overarching reality is that this is unresolved

559
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 6: and the Palestinians as a people are remain very much

560
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 6: in danger. I also think though, that it is evidence

561
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 6: that if the Palestinians had not resisted Israel, they would

562
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 6: have been erased a long time ago. And you know,

563
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 6: Hamas certainly is going to have to answer its own

564
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 6: questions from its own people about decisions that it made

565
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 6: over the course of the past fifteen and sixteen months.

566
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, this is not

567
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 6: a total victory for NETANYAHUU the likes of which he

568
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 6: claimed he was going to get. This deal doesn't say

569
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 6: Hamas is gone. This deal doesn't say Hamas is not

570
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 6: allowed to participate in politics. And Anthony Blincoln put a

571
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 6: very fine point on it. Even in a discombobulated way,

572
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,719
Speaker 6: resistance is growing in Gaza and the West Bank. It's

573
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 6: not being stamped out. You can't kill your way to victory.

574
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 6: This was what Bush and Cheney thought they could do

575
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 6: with their you know, neo con wars that many Democrats back.

576
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 6: It just history just shows it never works. Look at Afghanistan, Jeremy.

577
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 4: I was going to say the same thing. Blincoln's point

578
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 4: is actually so self defeating if you're considered it in

579
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 4: that context. And before we let you go, I just

580
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 4: want to get your reaction to some of these mounting criticisms.

581
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 4: I mean, they've been there all along, but especially pitched

582
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 4: right now from hostage families. So this is a six.

583
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: We can put this up. It's a vo so you'll

584
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 4: see on video hostage families as really hostage families saying

585
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 4: that they have received threats or families of the kidnapped

586
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 4: have received threats that their loved ones would not appear

587
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 4: on the returney list if they continued to make noise,

588
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 4: and some of the families back down because they felt threatened.

589
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 4: That's the translation. And if we move on to a seven,

590
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,719
Speaker 4: you can actually see more of this. This is from

591
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 4: we are all hostages, who says net and Yah Who's

592
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 4: coalition members attack hostage families on a weekly basis because

593
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 4: they despise them. Jeremy, what are the politics or how

594
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 4: do these politics influence net Yahoo in the days ahead?

595
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 6: I mean, this is an utterly sickening dynamic. I mean,

596
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 6: look at the way that the families of the Israelis

597
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 6: being held in Gaza have been treated. Throughout the course

598
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 6: of the past fifteen months. Net Yahu and his supporters

599
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 6: in the government have used the fact that there are

600
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 6: Israeli captives hostages in Gaza as a major political cudgel

601
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 6: to defend Israel's genocide, and yet at every turn when

602
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 6: they could have returned them, I mean, how is it

603
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 6: that they have not made a deal to get some

604
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 6: of the elderly people out or children. You know, and

605
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 6: I've been very clear from the beginning, no one ever

606
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 6: should be taking children captive hostage, harming them in any way.

607
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 6: Those people should have been released long ago, and yes,

608
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 6: Hamas should answer questions for that, but also Israel is

609
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 6: the main reason why they haven't been released, and those

610
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 6: families deserve the support of the world when they're saying

611
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 6: do anything to get our loved ones out of there,

612
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 6: because at the under other end of that that do

613
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 6: anything means stop killing the children and the elderly and

614
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 6: the sick of Gaza as well. I mean they've been

615
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 6: used as a political football and to be told, if

616
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 6: you don't shut up, we're going to push your family

617
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 6: members further down the list and into the second phase

618
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 6: or the third phase of this. I mean, this is

619
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 6: just morally reprehensible behavior and.

620
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 5: Unfortunately not shocking. It's hostage taking. It's literally hostage taking.

621
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 5: To say that we will keep your family member held

622
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 5: hostage unless you do x is That is hostage taking,

623
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 5: even if you're outsourcing the hostage taking in that situation.

624
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 6: It's also Israel's policy on Palestinians in general, which is,

625
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 6: if you don't bend the knee and agree to subjugation

626
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 6: and colonialism and to live as a second or third

627
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 6: class citizen, if we even allow you to live, then

628
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 6: you're going to be subjected to economic, military, and political

629
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 6: warfare as long as you walk this earth. It's a

630
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 6: microcosm of that broader mentality that leads to things like

631
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 6: a war of annihilation against an overwhelmingly civilian population of Gaza.

632
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, and last question for you from your source is

633
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 5: when are they expecting? When can when can we expect

634
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 5: a kind of final announcement here.

635
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 6: You know, Ryan, I I'd be an idiot if I

636
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 6: answered that question, because you know, when you when you well,

637
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 6: I will. I will give you guys one vignette. You know.

638
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 6: A few days ago, I was talking to a negotiator

639
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 6: from the Palestinian resistance. We we all say Hamas, but

640
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 6: there's multiple groups that are involved with the negotiation. It's

641
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 6: not just Thamas. And they said that they they had

642
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 6: to affirm in no uncertain terms to the mediators that

643
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 6: there would be no leaks about this.

644
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 4: You know.

645
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 6: They they also want this deal to go through, you know.

646
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 6: So I had indications, Oh, it's it looks like it's

647
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 6: going to be you know today, But then you have

648
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 6: these hiccups happen with technical discussions. So I think there's

649
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 6: a high likelihood that it's going to happen before Trump's inauguration.

650
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 6: But the devil is in the details, and net Yahoo

651
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 6: has been known to pull eleventh hour tricks. So you know,

652
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 6: I'm I'm not so naive as to say, oh, Ryan, well,

653
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 6: my sources are telling me today. It all depends on

654
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 6: what happens with these remaining technical discussions. But there are

655
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 6: indications that it should happen before Trump's inauguration.

656
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 5: All right, So up next, we're going to talk about

657
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 5: a new survey out that shows that among the people

658
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 5: who voted for Biden in twenty twenty and then did

659
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 5: not vote for Kamala Harris in twenty twenty four, Kamala,

660
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 5: refusing to break with Biden on Gaza is cited as

661
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 5: their number one reason they.

662
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: Decided not to vote. We'll talk about that in a second.

663
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 5: From twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, Democrats saw a

664
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 5: staggering drop off and support at the presidential level, with

665
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 5: some nineteen million people who voted for Joe Biden staying

666
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 5: home or not mailing in.

667
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 1: Their ballots in twenty twenty four.

668
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 5: A new survey conducted by YouGov suggests Biden's support for

669
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 5: Israel's unrelenting assault on Gaza played a surprisingly large role

670
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 5: in the decision making of those previous Biden supporters who

671
00:35:55,640 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 5: didn't vote. The top reason those non voters cited above

672
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 5: the economy at twenty four percent an immigration at eleven percent,

673
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 5: was Gaza, which a full twenty nine percent cited as

674
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 5: the top reason they didn't cast a vote.

675
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four.

676
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 5: Looking narrowly at states that swung from Biden in twenty

677
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 5: twenty to Trump in twenty twenty four, the number is smaller,

678
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 5: but in those states, twenty percent still cited.

679
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: Gaza as the reason they didn't vote.

680
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 5: Again, the poll was paid for it by the Institute

681
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 5: for Middle East Understanding, which has been an outspoken critic

682
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 5: of Israel's assault on Gaza now before firmly demonstrating that

683
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 5: Gaza costs Democrats the election. A handful of caveats are important,

684
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 5: So even if October seventh and the resulting genocide had

685
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 5: never happened, it's fair to assume some number of those

686
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 5: non voters still would not have voted and would have

687
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 5: cited a different top reason for not voting. Citing a

688
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 5: top reason for not voting is different than it being

689
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 5: the only reason that you didn't vote. And because the

690
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 5: turnout drop off was smaller or in swing states, Gaza

691
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 5: may not have been decisive on its own. Whenever surveys

692
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 5: confirm views we already hold, or tell us things we

693
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 5: want to be true, it's worth approaching their findings with

694
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 5: increased skepticism. Still, even the most biased pole can only

695
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 5: manufacture so much of a response. Even if the true

696
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 5: numbers aren't as stark as this survey found, the direction

697
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 5: that it points in is clear. Biden's ruthless support for

698
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 5: Israel's genocide and the refusal of Harris to break with

699
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 5: him hurt her among voters who stayed home. A previous

700
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 5: survey taken during the election by Yugov and similarly sponsored

701
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 5: by IMEU, found strong evidence that nominee Kamala Harris would

702
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 5: be significantly boosted by breaking with Biden on Gaza and

703
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 5: applying real pressure on Israel.

704
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 1: Harris chose not to do so.

705
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 5: Breaking with Biden on Gaza could have had a knock

706
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 5: on effects elsewhere. As Harris never successfully answered a question

707
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 5: that dogged her throughout her campaign, what would she have

708
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 5: done diff differently than Biden or what would she do

709
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 5: differently than Biden in the future, Harris eventually settled on

710
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 5: the unsatisfying answerence. My presidency will not be a continuation

711
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 5: of Joe Biden's presidency. And like every new and like

712
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 5: every new president comes into office, I'll bring my life

713
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 5: experiences something like that.

714
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: You know, I'm my name's Kamala Harris. I'm not Joe Biden.

715
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 5: Now in one emblematic response, she has a debate for instance,

716
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 5: check this one out.

717
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 9: Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly

718
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 9: not Donald Trump. And what I do offer is a

719
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 9: new generation of leadership for our country, one who believes

720
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 9: in what is possible, one who brings a sense of

721
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 9: optimism about what we can do instead of always disparaging

722
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 9: the American people. I believe in what we can do

723
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 9: to strengthen our small businesses, which is why I have

724
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 9: a plan. Let's talk about our plans.

725
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:59,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so that's not an answer.

726
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,919
Speaker 5: But breaking with Biden on Gaza, of course, that risk

727
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 5: losing voters who supported his policy, but a close look

728
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 5: at this survey shows that the risk was low compared

729
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 5: to the reward from breaking with him. Voters who were

730
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 5: with Biden in twenty twenty and stuck with Harris in

731
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 5: twenty twenty four were asked if breaking with him on

732
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 5: Gaza would make them more or less enthusiastic about voting

733
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 5: for Harris, and by a thirty five to five percent margin,

734
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 5: they said breaking with him would have made them more

735
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 5: enthusiastic to vote for Kamala Harris, with the remainder saying

736
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 5: it would have made no difference. Non voters said that

737
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 5: if she had broken with Biden on Gaza, they'd have

738
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 5: been more likely to vote for her by a thirty

739
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 5: six to ten margin. Meanwhile, Democrat's unshakable commitment to the

740
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 5: war also blended with concerns that the party was not

741
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 5: focused on issues that mattered to Americans, as I argued previously.

742
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 5: The survey, meanwhile, showed that the issue was most salient

743
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 5: among whitef voters, thirty four percent of which said it

744
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 5: was the top reason they didn't vote for Harris and

745
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 5: Hispanic voters at twenty seven percent, while less so with

746
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 5: black voters at just nine percent. And so emily like

747
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 5: like I was saying, you always have to take polls

748
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 5: like this with the grain of salt, and you can

749
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 5: prime a poll. You can you know, if you're asking

750
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 5: questions about Gaza, then maybe Gaza rises a little bit

751
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 5: in your mind. If Gaza happens to be in the

752
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:32,439
Speaker 5: news when you pick up the phone, Poultures have found

753
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 5: that that heavily influences how much you know, how much

754
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 5: it comes up in an answer. If the news is

755
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 5: talking about the deficit constantly, you call somebody up and

756
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 5: ask them if they're concerned about the deficits, They're like, yeah,

757
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 5: but there's if.

758
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 1: The deficits not in the news, then it completely vanishes.

759
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: From I ask on.

760
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 4: October eighth about the deficit, you'll probably get different.

761
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 1: Yes.

762
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 5: So all that said, you can't manufacture a number that

763
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 5: high if there isn't something.

764
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 1: Real underneath it.

765
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 5: Totally, and I do think that it blended more generally

766
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 5: with the problems that Democrats had. If you lose that

767
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:17,879
Speaker 5: many voters nineteen million, and a third of them say

768
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 5: that the top reason that they didn't vote for you

769
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 5: was the way that you were because you didn't break

770
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 5: with Biden on Gaza. That's millions of people. Not every

771
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 5: single one of them votes for you, but if some do,

772
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 5: that matters.

773
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 4: Yeah. It reminds me of our DNC coverage actually, sort

774
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 4: of walking through the protests. It was smaller. The protests,

775
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 4: the demonstrations that the DNC were smaller than a lot

776
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 4: of people expected, and the media kind of used that

777
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 4: as an opportunity to brush aside that narrative. But actually,

778
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 4: this was always going to be a marginal election. It

779
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 4: was always going to be an election that came down

780
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 4: to just a little sliver of a percentage in Michigan, Wisconsin,

781
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,800
Speaker 4: places like that. So it doesn't matter that the protest

782
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 4: is smaller than people expected if it represents a small

783
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 4: but significant chunk of the broader public. Like we were

784
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 4: saying that this was going to be significant for a

785
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 4: long time. And I wonder, Ryan, when you look at

786
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 4: those numbers, you see perhaps something specifically about college kids,

787
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 4: you know, Michigan, Michigan.

788
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, and we can put some We'll write about this

789
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 5: at drop site and put the link and the poll

790
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 5: in there. Yes, young people, certainly, it's not like you

791
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 5: can see the numbers like like for young people, it's

792
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 5: the it's a higher concern than it is for older people.

793
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 4: Well, I'm going to say something. It's going to sound

794
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 4: maybe a little crass, but I think for if you,

795
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 4: if you're picking up on the vibes on TikTok and

796
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 4: other places, over the course of the last you know,

797
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 4: six months plus, it wasn't cool to like go out

798
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 4: and vote Kamala Harris and put your eye voted sticker

799
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 4: on if you were on a campus, it was kind

800
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 4: of cringe because specifically because of this issue, because Democrats

801
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 4: lost so much just moral credibility, I think with a

802
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 4: lot of young people because of this.

803
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 5: Issue, right, And so I think that's a good way

804
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 5: of putting it. So in everybody probably experiences this in

805
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 5: their own life. And actually, if you're watching the show,

806
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 5: you might be the person in your social circle or

807
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 5: maybe several you in your social circle watch this show

808
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 5: and talk about it then you and then you talk

809
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 5: about what you what you watched here and what you

810
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 5: read elsewhere to your friends. And so your friends then

811
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 5: are kind of on the on the outer rung there,

812
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,240
Speaker 5: they're they're getting informed by you, and we are informing

813
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 5: you like that that that's kind of the direction that

814
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 5: it goes.

815
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 1: And so while you might love.

816
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 5: What Lena Khan is doing, or you might love what

817
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 5: the NLRB is doing for workers around the country, you're

818
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 5: less likely to share that with your friends if at

819
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 5: the same time they're facilitating a genocide.

820
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 1: So you know what I'm not.

821
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 5: I'm not I'm glad that Lena Khan's doing good stuff,

822
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 5: but I'm not going knocking on doors telling people about

823
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 5: it while they're doing this other evil thing. And so

824
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 5: I think you're right that it became particularly on social media,

825
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 5: whereas everybody's getting their news. Yeah, it just it became

826
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 5: very uncool and unpleasant to like say nice things about

827
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 5: people who were doing this blanket evil thing.

828
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 4: I think that's exactly right, Like it literally fell out

829
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 4: of fashion. And I don't mean that again in a

830
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: pejorative sense, like politics for a lot of people, like

831
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 4: if you're if you're looking at popular culture and it

832
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 4: just sort of like osmosis creeps into our world. It

833
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 4: just the vibes were sucked out of the Democratic Party

834
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 4: with young people because of this.

835
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, And what worked for Biden in twenty twenty two

836
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 5: on that level was that dark Brandon meme.

837
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, even though he was old, Like people say like, oh,

838
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 4: Biden's so elderly, Nancy Pelosi so elderly, how could young

839
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 4: people ever vote for them? It's like young people love

840
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders. Yeah, love Bernie said Donald Trump just significantly

841
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 4: improved a share of the youth vote. He's also old.

842
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, And think about why dark Brandon worked for that

843
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 5: to land and for people to be able to say,

844
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 5: Joe Biden is cool because you know, Lena Khan is cool.

845
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 5: Because then all RP is cool because he got out

846
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 5: of Afghanistan. What people had to do is flip his

847
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 5: entire identity and creating new identity for him.

848
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:12,760
Speaker 4: It was ironic.

849
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's like, okay, yeah, we acknowledge that Joe Biden sucks.

850
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 5: We don't support Joe Biden. We support Dark Brand, his

851
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 5: alter ego, his alter ego who is doing these cool things.

852
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 5: And we're like, all right, you know what, we can't

853
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 5: get much in the US. We'll take that that works

854
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 5: for us. And it legitimately helped to boost the vibes

855
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 5: and it worked. You're not doing a Dark Brand and

856
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 5: meme with the lasers coming out of the eyes when

857
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 5: he's vaporizing children on a daily basis, or with Kamala Harris.

858
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: You can't keep Brat sticking right Like Bratt stuck for

859
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 4: a few weeks, and then after it it just became impossible.

860
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 4: It became extremely cringe because I think young people were

861
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 4: so and if you're not on tech talk, I'm not

862
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 4: on TikTok. Honestly, I try to pay his attention as

863
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 4: much attention.

864
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: As I catch joined. Just the other day, I saw

865
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: it if I could get in right before they ban it.

866
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 4: Amazing stuff coming out of Ryan's learning process, which he's

867
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 4: broadcasting on access. He's like, try and step by step

868
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 4: through TikTok. It's great, but if you're if you were

869
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 4: paying attention to that, it was so so clear. And

870
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: this is again why a lot of Hawks want to

871
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: just ban TikTok, because the propaganda was not working on

872
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 4: this particular issue, like this was a huge top line

873
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 4: problem for young people towards the Biden administration that Kamala

874
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 4: Harris represented.

875
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, it just so it's not it's not Gaza alone,

876
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 5: but Gaza prevented Harris from getting any any momentum with

877
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 5: people who would have then been interested in talking about

878
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 5: the other things. Meanwhile, she wouldn't even support Lena Khan.

879
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 5: She wouldn't even publicly come out and say that she

880
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 5: would reappoint Lena.

881
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 4: Con Now, she'd send Mark Cuban out to say that

882
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 4: they're not going to yes.

883
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 1: So you know, maybe it was you know, maybe she

884
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:01,760
Speaker 1: never had a shot.

885
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:05,479
Speaker 4: But I don't know. Well yet, you you crunched some numbers.

886
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,479
Speaker 4: People can go back and look in twenty twenty about

887
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 4: Joe Biden, who I think is actually a weaker candidate

888
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 4: in some levels than Kamala Harris, and how young voters

889
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:15,919
Speaker 4: in Pennsylvania probably put him over the edge.

890
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's real, absolutely.

891
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,760
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to Pete Heigsath's wild confirmation

892
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 4: hearing yesterday. Ryan, you said that it was a wild one.

893
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 4: I said it was sort of, by trump Ara standards,

894
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 4: a medium one, which is still pretty wild.

895
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: The sex and the partying and the and the like.

896
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 4: Drag Queen's drunk senators. So this is like Stefan like this.

897
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 4: The Heike Seth hearing had everything it very much did.

898
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 4: All right, Well, let's take a look here at the

899
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 4: opening statement that Pete Heikesseth came out with when he

900
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 4: was speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, and

901
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 4: it went for almost four and a half hours. It

902
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 4: was really long. They did not go to a second

903
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,919
Speaker 4: round of questioning, interestingly enough, but it was over four hours,

904
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 4: so there was plenty of time to question Pete Heiseth.

905
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 4: Here's how he started though, this is be one.

906
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 10: Thank you for figuratively and literally having my back.

907
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:12,879
Speaker 6: You are a missus.

908
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 1: Not only that, you are a perfect fine.

909
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 10: I want to thank the authorities for the swift reaction

910
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 10: to that outburst, right, and.

911
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 4: Said that was a democratic senator while our mics are

912
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 4: off from the back of the room. If you were

913
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 4: listening to this and didn't.

914
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: Basically that was a democratic senator.

915
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 4: It was actually like an old ponytail haired hippie. But

916
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 4: you know, same thing actually in some cases. But anyway,

917
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 4: so that's what happened. There were three disruptions. That disruptions.

918
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 4: I think like during his opening statement, it got off

919
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 4: to a rocky start. He was able to finish. And

920
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 4: let's just run through some of the most contentious exchanges.

921
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 4: Let's go here to Senator Tim kra Tim Kaine, who

922
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 4: of the many people that brought up, predictably the character

923
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 4: questions related to Pete Heike Seth, reports about infidelity, reports

924
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 4: about assault, reports about intoxication at work. Tim Kaine had

925
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 4: the most explosive exchange with Pete Heigsas. So let's roll this.

926
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 11: That occurred in Monterey, California in October twenty seventeen. At

927
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 11: that time, you were still married to your second wife, correct,

928
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 11: I believe so, and you had just fathered a child

929
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 11: by a woman who would later become your third wife.

930
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 10: Correct, Senator. I was falsely charged, fully investigated, and completely cleared.

931
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 11: So you think you are completely cleared because you committed

932
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 11: no crime. That's your definition of cleared. You had just

933
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 11: fathered a child two months before by a woman that

934
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 11: was not your wife. I am shocked that you would

935
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 11: stand here and say you are completely cleared. Can you

936
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 11: so casually cheat on a second wife and cheat on

937
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 11: the mother of a child that had been born two

938
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 11: months before and you tell us you are completely cleared?

939
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 8: How is that a complete clear?

940
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 4: And it actually even got I think that kept going.

941
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 4: The level of intensity with Tim Kine kept going.

942
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 5: Later he's like, we have it on the record source

943
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 5: who says that, like you got wasted as a strip

944
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 5: club and tried to get up on stage and danced

945
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 5: with the dancers, had a sexual harassment claim file against you.

946
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 5: Shouldn't that be disqualifying? Like the charge that the dude

947
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 5: is a dog? I think sticks like the guy's dog.

948
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 4: So let's go then to senator.

949
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 1: Questions whether it's how relevant that is?

950
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:37,439
Speaker 12: Yeah?

951
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 4: Well, and the question of whether it's sticks actually, I

952
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 4: think is a really important one because here comes Senator

953
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 4: Mark Wayne Mullen, Republican of Oklahoma, who went in on

954
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,280
Speaker 4: Tim Kaine the rest of the dogs.

955
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 13: But you so quickly forget about that and then Senator

956
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 13: Kane or I guess I better use the senator for

957
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 13: Virginius starts bringing up the fact that what if you

958
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 13: showed up drunk to your job? How many Senators have

959
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 13: showed up drunk to vote at night? Have any of

960
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 13: you guys asked them to step down and resign for

961
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 13: their job? And don't tell me you haven't seen it,

962
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 13: because I know you have. And then how many senators

963
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 13: do you know have got a divorce before cheating on

964
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 13: their wives? Did you ask them to step down?

965
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 4: No?

966
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 13: But it's for show, you guys, make sure you make

967
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 13: a big show and point out the hypocrisy because a

968
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 13: man's made a mistake and you want to sit there

969
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 13: and say that he's not qualified.

970
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 6: Give me a joke.

971
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 13: It is so ridiculous that you guys hold yourself as

972
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 13: this higher standard and you forget you got a big

973
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:46,280
Speaker 13: plank in your eye. We've all made mistakes. I've made mistakes,

974
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 13: and Jennifer, thank you for loving him through that mistake,

975
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 13: because the only reason why I'm here and not in

976
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 13: prison is because my wife loved me too. I have changed,

977
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 13: but I'm not perfect. But I found somebody that thought

978
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 13: I was perfect, and for whatever reason you love Pete

979
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 13: And I don't know why.

980
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 4: Many such cases it's true, but this is true. So

981
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 4: my take on this is actually that this is why

982
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:17,319
Speaker 4: the charges that Pete Hegseth was a dog seemed very

983
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 4: obviously to be correct, do not stick, because that's going

984
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 4: to be bouncing around the internet. And Mark Wayne Mullen,

985
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:28,280
Speaker 4: regardless of whatever his motivations are there former MMA fighter,

986
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 4: by the way, he is absolutely correct that it looks

987
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 4: awfully ridiculous for any member of the Senate to get

988
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 4: all sanctimonious about people showing up drunk to work and

989
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 4: cheating on their spouses.

990
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 5: It does, though Exist's dog behavior is zero point one

991
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 5: percent level like yeah, as Kane laid out, you know,

992
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 5: fathering a kid, oh yeah, cheating on your wife, having

993
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 5: a you know, father and child and then cheating on

994
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 5: that person.

995
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 4: But Congress getting a Congress is generally like in that

996
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 4: one percent maybe zero point one percent, but Congress does

997
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 4: occupy a slice there anyway. All that is to say,

998
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 4: I actually read a peace about this, yestuy, because and

999
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 4: we'll see this more and more like I actually think

1000
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 4: there are very serious questions about whether Pete Heike Seth,

1001
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 4: even if you share his ideology as worldview, like, is

1002
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 4: there a better person than Pete HeiG Seth to be

1003
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 4: this nominee? I think you know, that's a serious conversation

1004
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 4: to be had on the right.

1005
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 5: Right, because this derailed for the most part, any kind

1006
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 5: of sophisticated conversation about what the US but the Pentagon's

1007
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:34,240
Speaker 5: role is in the world.

1008
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, they were those serious questions were drowned out for

1009
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 4: doug less serious ones. So yeah, ish, but even that,

1010
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 4: I think again, it was this breathless defense of the

1011
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 4: Pentagon as an institution, even if it didn't even if

1012
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 4: they didn't mean it to come across that way, with

1013
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 4: some of them obviously did. But even if they didn't

1014
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 4: mean it to come across that way, it came across

1015
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 4: as like a defense of the status quo, which is

1016
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 4: really toned off right now. And even and if people

1017
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 4: are concerned about Hegsath, they're willing to err on the

1018
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 4: side of the disruptor instead of the side of the

1019
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 4: status quo. So let's take a look here at Duckworth.

1020
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 4: Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, a veteran herself, questioning Pete Hegseath.

1021
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 14: What is the highest level of international negotiations that you

1022
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 14: have engaged in that you have led in, because the

1023
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 14: Secrety Defense does lead international security negotiations. There are three

1024
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,520
Speaker 14: main ones that the Secretary of Defense leads and signs.

1025
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 14: Can you name at least one of them?

1026
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: Could you repeat the question, Senata, sure, what is.

1027
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:35,879
Speaker 14: The highest level of international security agreement that you have led?

1028
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 14: And can you name some that the Secretary Defense would lead?

1029
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:40,879
Speaker 14: There are three main ones.

1030
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 10: You have not been involved in international security arrangements because

1031
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 10: I have not been in government other than serving in

1032
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 10: the military, so my job has been you name one

1033
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 10: of the three main ones that the talking about defense arrangements,

1034
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 10: I mean NATO might be one of one that you're

1035
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 10: referring to.

1036
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 14: Stay as the Forces Agreement would be one of them.

1037
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 10: Or Status of Forces agreement. I've been a part of

1038
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,240
Speaker 10: teaching about Status of Forces agreement, but you don't remember

1039
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:05,880
Speaker 10: to mention it.

1040
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:10,800
Speaker 14: You're not qualified, mister heck Seth. You're not qualified. You

1041
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 14: talk about repairing our defense industrial complex, you're not qualified

1042
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,280
Speaker 14: to that. You could do the acquisition and cross servicing agreements,

1043
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 14: which essentially are security agreements. You can't even mention that.

1044
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 5: She also had a brutal exchange where she asked him

1045
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 5: to name any of the countries in the Asian who

1046
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 5: were in the like Southeast Asian Trade Compact, Trade and

1047
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 5: Military Compact, and he was like, Australia, Japan. It's like, no,

1048
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 5: that's that's East Asia and Australia's different continent. I'm talking

1049
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 5: about Southeast Asia.

1050
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 4: That's an economic alliance, right, it.

1051
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 1: Is, it had, but the Pentagon is involved in it.

1052
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 5: And if you like, if you're involved in this stuff,

1053
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 5: that comes up a lot. It was kind of surprising

1054
00:55:57,680 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 5: that what they used to do with conformation hearings.

1055
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: Is they would murder board people like you were.

1056
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 5: You were stuck in a room for like eighteen hours

1057
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 5: for like weeks on end with these people kind of grilling,

1058
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:13,720
Speaker 5: and you had notes to take home and study and memorize.

1059
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: And doesn't mean that you got better.

1060
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 5: Nominees as a result of that, just because they did

1061
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 5: a crash course and memorized you know, the tens on countries.

1062
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 5: But it is kind of odd that you wouldn't do

1063
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,719
Speaker 5: the basic stuff there Now me, I think, you know,

1064
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 5: the more incompetent the head of the Defense department is,

1065
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,320
Speaker 5: then the more likely it is to like run the

1066
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 5: American war machine into the ground the better. So you

1067
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 5: got a guy who is drunk by noon and like

1068
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 5: doesn't really kind of know the basics of this. Now,

1069
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 5: from the other perspective, the status quo also prefers somebody

1070
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 5: who doesn't know.

1071
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 1: What they're doing.

1072
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 5: They want to manipulate it because they think they can

1073
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:04,440
Speaker 5: then run them right over right.

1074
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 4: And I think that Hegseth is right on that line

1075
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 4: for them of somebody who's easily treated as a puppet

1076
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 4: and manipulated, and somebody who may not know the ins

1077
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 4: and out of the outside the pentagon, but will hire

1078
00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 4: the people who do and who actually do want to

1079
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 4: disrupt the status quot And I think maybe part of

1080
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 4: this is their suessing that out. Let's take a listen

1081
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 4: to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and then we will hear a

1082
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 4: little bit from Tom Cotton. Here's Senator Jill Brand.

1083
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 10: Standards have been changed inside infantry training units, ranger school,

1084
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 10: infantry battalions to ensure the community.

1085
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 15: For example, please give me an example.

1086
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:44,440
Speaker 10: I get you're making these quotas to have a certain

1087
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 10: number of female infantry officers or infustry enlisted, and that

1088
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 10: disparages those women.

1089
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 15: Commanders do not have to be quota for the infantry.

1090
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 15: Commanders do not have to have a quota for women

1091
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 15: in the infantry.

1092
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 4: That does not exist.

1093
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 15: It does not exist. And your stay statements are creating

1094
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 15: the impression that these exist because they do not. There

1095
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 15: are not quotas. We want the most lethal force. But

1096
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 15: I'm telling you, having been here for fifteen years listening

1097
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 15: to testimony about men and women in combat and the

1098
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 15: type of operations that were successful in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

1099
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 15: Women were essential for many of those units. When ranger

1100
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 15: units went in to find where are the terrorists hiding

1101
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 15: in Afghanistan or in Iraq, if they had a woman

1102
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 15: in the unit, they could go in talk to the

1103
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 15: women in a village, say where are the terrorists hiding,

1104
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 15: where are the weapons hiding, and get crucial information to

1105
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 15: make sure that we can win that battle. So, just

1106
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 15: you cannot denigrate women in general, and your statements do

1107
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 15: that we don't want women in the military, especially in combat.

1108
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 15: What a terrible statement. So please do not deny that

1109
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 15: you've made those statements.

1110
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 4: You have, so I definitely enjoyed the memes. Ryan one

1111
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 4: in particular that clips together, I might get you in

1112
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 4: trouble with us. On the clip together, all the Senate

1113
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 4: dem women on the committee yelling at him and said

1114
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 4: this is actually worse than combat, because they really were

1115
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 4: yelling at him specifically on this line about women serving.

1116
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,680
Speaker 5: And he's moved off a lot of his more extent positions,

1117
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 5: which initially were no women at all. I don't how

1118
00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:20,520
Speaker 5: would you characterize his previous positions when it came to

1119
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 5: women's He.

1120
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 4: Literally said on Sean Ryan quote, I'm straight up saying

1121
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 4: that women shouldn't be able to serve in combat. And

1122
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 4: that's what Elizabeth Warren said, I've never seen a you know,

1123
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,920
Speaker 4: a conversion. What did she say, a confirmation conversion something

1124
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 4: like that. She also had a moment where she was

1125
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 4: questioning him about whether he would hold to the standard

1126
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 4: he demands generals should be helped to, which is that

1127
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 4: you don't leave the Pentagon and then go work for

1128
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 4: I think it's defense contractors was the specific thing they

1129
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 4: were talking about for ten years, and he was like,

1130
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 4: I'm not a general. So there were some exchanges. I

1131
00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 4: thought he and people were laughing at that. I think

1132
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 4: there were some exchanges that were better for him actually

1133
00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 4: than obviously others.

1134
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 5: Nice if he would agree to it, Oh my gosh, yeah,

1135
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 5: but he wouldn't agree to it. No, he just said,

1136
01:00:03,600 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 5: I'm not in general, I men go back to Fox

1137
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 5: and make a lot of money.

1138
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, and so maybe that's I don't know. But

1139
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 4: he had some moments actually where I think, even to

1140
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 4: the questioning from Duckworth, I didn't think he handled it

1141
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 4: that poorly. I don't think he handled Tim Kaine's questioning

1142
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:22,240
Speaker 4: that poorly. I don't think he handled Gilibrands questioning that poorly.

1143
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 4: Whether those are legitimate issues is different than whether he

1144
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 4: sounded all right. I don't think he flamed out, And

1145
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 4: we've seen that already in senators like Joni Ernz coming

1146
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 4: out and saying, you know, if he had flamed out,

1147
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:37,439
Speaker 4: there would be hesitation, more hesitation right now, at least

1148
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:40,920
Speaker 4: projected publicly like well, I'm gonna have to talk to

1149
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 4: him about X, Y and Z, like dub Fisher told

1150
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:46,000
Speaker 4: him he might want to go study up on this nuclear.

1151
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 1: Triad thing kind of important. Yeah, well, it's to your point.

1152
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 4: About how it used to be done in a way

1153
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 4: that's behind closed doors, more substantive than the four hours

1154
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 4: of theater that you get on television. Christian Gilbren, I

1155
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 4: think is a great example of how you're getting some

1156
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 4: theater on television, and so is Tom Cotton. Let's roll

1157
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 4: b six here of just some of the Republican questioning

1158
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 4: of Pete Haig Seth.

1159
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:09,480
Speaker 16: I want to give you a chance to respond to

1160
01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 16: what they said about you. I think the first one

1161
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 16: accused you of being a Christian Zionist. I'm not really

1162
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 16: sure why that is a bad thing. I'm a Christian,

1163
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 16: I'm a Zionist. Zionism is that the Jewish people deserve

1164
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 16: a homeland in the ancient Holy Land where they've lived

1165
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 16: since the dawn of history. Do you consider yourself a

1166
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 16: Christian Zionist.

1167
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:31,920
Speaker 1: Senator, I support.

1168
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 10: I am a Christian, and I robustly support the state

1169
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:38,800
Speaker 10: of Israel and it's existential defense and the way America

1170
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 10: comes alongside them.

1171
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:40,800
Speaker 1: Is there great thank you?

1172
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 16: Because another protester, and I think this one was a

1173
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 16: member of Code Pain, which by the way, is a

1174
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 16: Chinese communist front group these days, said that you support

1175
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 16: Israel's war in Gaza. I support Israel's existential war in Gaza.

1176
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:58,440
Speaker 16: I assume, like me and President Trump, you support that

1177
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 16: war as well, don't you, Senator I do.

1178
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:05,200
Speaker 10: I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.

1179
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,600
Speaker 4: So that's Tom Cotton and Pete Haig Seth. There's a

1180
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 4: lot of Mark wain Mullen was a good example to

1181
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 4: the sort of dramatic pumping him up. Did you catch

1182
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 4: Senator Tim Sheehy of Montana literally asking how many push

1183
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 4: ups can you do?

1184
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:19,440
Speaker 8: Oh?

1185
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 1: No, I missed. I saw him ask how many genders

1186
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 1: are there?

1187
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 7: Yeah?

1188
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 1: And then he told his classic she he joke.

1189
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,479
Speaker 4: Yes, Senator she Yeah, I mean always a winner.

1190
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: Can you imagine being his staff? So sick of that?

1191
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 1: Like you hear that joke right ten times a day?

1192
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 10: Yeah.

1193
01:02:36,280 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 4: So anyway, I think you know, he'll probably survive this

1194
01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 4: confirmation battle. He was probably always going to survive the

1195
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:45,560
Speaker 4: confirmation battle. But if he had really flamed out yesterday,

1196
01:02:45,680 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 4: there would have been Gates level, not quite Gates level,

1197
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:53,439
Speaker 4: but Gates type hesitation from people like Jenny Earnster, people

1198
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 4: indeed like Roger Wicker, and that we're not we're not

1199
01:02:56,840 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 4: seeing that reaction. They eventually would have been pushed by

1200
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:02,360
Speaker 4: Trump to come, but we're just not seeing that type

1201
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 4: of reaction. So I think he'll survive this one, right.

1202
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: He probably will.

1203
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 5: And I think if if he represented a more fundamental

1204
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:14,280
Speaker 5: threat to the establishment at the Pentagon, the establishment of

1205
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 5: the Pentagon is very well represented on the Senate Armed

1206
01:03:16,880 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 5: Services Committee, and you would have seen much more hostility

1207
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 5: to him from Republicans because there is a kind of

1208
01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 5: uniparty when it comes to support for the Pentagon in

1209
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 5: the military industrial complex. So, y'all do what you want.

1210
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 5: But you know, if I were running MAGA, I think

1211
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 5: I would want a guy that was a bit more

1212
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 5: of a bureaucratic killer and had more of an instinct

1213
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 5: and understanding for how you're going to actually do this.

1214
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 1: This feels like a guy who was it was.

1215
01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 5: He was as shocked as the rest of the world

1216
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 5: was when Trump picked him to be Pentagon secretary.

1217
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:58,520
Speaker 1: He's like, whoa does he does he know what this

1218
01:03:58,720 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 1: confirmation hearing is going to be?

1219
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 8: Like yeah, yeah.

1220
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 1: Trump's like, I don't care, you know, yeah, picking mac Gates.

1221
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 4: I just think, honestly, for the most of the public,

1222
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 4: and there's been like a lot of handbringing in circles

1223
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:14,320
Speaker 4: like the Atlantic about him not agreeing to stand by

1224
01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 4: the Geneva Conventions. It just reminds me of all of

1225
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 4: the moral panic over Trump and NATO, right, like, it's,

1226
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 4: oh my, how dare this is beyond the palins. It

1227
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 4: was beyond the pale in Washington. But when the rest

1228
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 4: of the country sees you fuming over someone's skepticism about

1229
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 4: NATO or the Geneva Conventions, you're the one who's on

1230
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 4: the like on the political end of that like pr

1231
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 4: end of that, you're the one who looks like you're

1232
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 4: out of touch.

1233
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:41,920
Speaker 5: And I would say, from a separate perspective there for

1234
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 5: a different perspective there. So this was an exchange Angus

1235
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 5: King had with Hagseeth where he said, would you respect

1236
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:51,320
Speaker 5: the Geneva Convention's ban on torture? And he said, I'm

1237
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 5: not going to let the you know, international community tell

1238
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:57,480
Speaker 5: me what to do. And you know, whenever I see

1239
01:04:57,560 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 5: somebody who says that they won't con the Geneva Conventions

1240
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 5: on torture, I'm going to go right for those pearls.

1241
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 5: But then immediately I'm like, wait a minute, this is

1242
01:05:06,320 --> 01:05:08,720
Speaker 5: the same Democrats, and this is the same Atlantic Monthly

1243
01:05:09,760 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 5: that wants to sanction the UN for trying to prosecute

1244
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 5: war crimes in Gaza.

1245
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 1: You want to destroy the ICJ. You want to destroy

1246
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 1: the ICC.

1247
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 5: Because it is following the law and indicting Yah and

1248
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 5: have Galant for their crimes against humanity.

1249
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: And then you want to hold up the Geneva Conventions.

1250
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 4: That's the point.

1251
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 1: Then I'm like, get out of here. I see.

1252
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 5: But I can clutch my pearls because I support the

1253
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,800
Speaker 5: ic C and the ICJ and the Geneva Conventions. You

1254
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 5: can called consistency. You can consistently, can clutch my pearls.

1255
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:49,240
Speaker 4: Senate Dems on Armed Services cannot.

1256
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, all right.

1257
01:05:53,640 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 4: Let's move on to some of this. This is an

1258
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 4: awful story out of Los Angeles. We're gonna roll right

1259
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 4: here into some reports that we're getting from what we're about,

1260
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 4: I should say landlords in the LA area as the

1261
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 4: community continues to be on edge and devastated by wildfire.

1262
01:06:12,040 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 4: So this is as more perfect Union puts a celebrity realturgy.

1263
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:18,640
Speaker 4: It's an Oppenheim of selling sunset. He's talking a little

1264
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 4: bit about price gouging here. Let's roll a clip.

1265
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 17: This is something that I want to discuss because I

1266
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 17: think it should be exposed. But we're having landlords taking

1267
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 17: advantage of the situation.

1268
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 8: I had a client.

1269
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 17: We sent him to a house that was asking thirteen

1270
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 17: thousand dollars a month. He offered twenty thousand dollars a month,

1271
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:38,520
Speaker 17: and he offered to pay six months upfront, and the

1272
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,120
Speaker 17: landlord said, no, I want twenty three thousand dollars a month.

1273
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 17: You know, there are price gouging logs in California. They're

1274
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:46,480
Speaker 17: just being ignored right now. And this isn't the time

1275
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 17: to be taking advantage of situations. And it's also illegal

1276
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:51,800
Speaker 17: to take advantage of a natural disaster.

1277
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 4: So do you think that landlords might be not just

1278
01:06:54,640 --> 01:06:57,360
Speaker 4: profiting during this emergency but actually breaking the law?

1279
01:06:58,160 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 1: Absolutely they are. I mean he starts till last night.

1280
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 17: You cannot charge more than ten percent above mark, you know,

1281
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 17: pre disaster market rates.

1282
01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 4: All right, So let's actually take a look at this

1283
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:12,160
Speaker 4: Google docs spreadsheet. This is the next element. Put it

1284
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 4: up on the screen tracking. So this is a spreadsheet

1285
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:18,480
Speaker 4: of landlord's price gadging rent during the LA fires. Just

1286
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 4: post on access and if you go and click on it, the.

1287
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:23,120
Speaker 1: Rents republic before and now in the public now, and

1288
01:07:23,160 --> 01:07:25,320
Speaker 1: you can see the doubling.

1289
01:07:25,040 --> 01:07:28,880
Speaker 4: And worse yeah, And jud Legom actually went through and

1290
01:07:29,240 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 4: put some of these from Zillow on three this. Yeah,

1291
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:36,959
Speaker 4: this is c three jued Legom is pulling out things

1292
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:41,120
Speaker 4: on zillo. You can compare this, it's publicly accessible information,

1293
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 4: absolutely against the lawine.

1294
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so a couple couple of things here.

1295
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 5: And I'm sure people will have a fun debate about

1296
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 5: this down in the comments section. But to me, I

1297
01:07:55,200 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 5: get a little frustrated whenever the public is I did

1298
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:06,200
Speaker 5: for socialism and government regulation only when there's a crisis. Like,

1299
01:08:06,360 --> 01:08:09,920
Speaker 5: if you're against this, then you need to join me

1300
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:15,800
Speaker 5: in being for tough rent control and being for enormous

1301
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 5: investments in public housing and not not not the kind

1302
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:24,120
Speaker 5: of public housing that is completely restricted, but public investments

1303
01:08:24,320 --> 01:08:29,680
Speaker 5: in housing for people, and along with real curbs on

1304
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:33,120
Speaker 5: turning housing into just a free flowing commodity.

1305
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 1: Like you can't. To me, you can't have it both ways.

1306
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 5: You want the market when everything's cool, but then the

1307
01:08:41,280 --> 01:08:44,600
Speaker 5: second things go sideways, you're like, oh wait, there's this

1308
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 5: long in the books here, and like, I mean, maybe

1309
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:50,000
Speaker 5: you can't have it both ways because you will have

1310
01:08:50,080 --> 01:08:52,000
Speaker 5: a lot of politicians who are willing to crack down

1311
01:08:52,040 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 5: on this, But I'm saying, if you like this idea

1312
01:08:56,200 --> 01:08:59,640
Speaker 5: that greed should not dictate everything, then come on over

1313
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,680
Speaker 5: to this side here and let's try to live that

1314
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 5: all the time.

1315
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, but see on the other side of that, literally,

1316
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 4: on the right side of that, I don't mean the

1317
01:09:09,320 --> 01:09:10,679
Speaker 4: correct side, but on the right side.

1318
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:11,519
Speaker 1: Of that, the wrong side of that.

1319
01:09:12,280 --> 01:09:14,960
Speaker 4: I don't really think the government, Like I don't also

1320
01:09:15,040 --> 01:09:17,479
Speaker 4: trust the government to be dictating these prices either, I

1321
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 4: don't feeling right.

1322
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:20,479
Speaker 5: That's what they're saying here is that there ought to

1323
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:22,400
Speaker 5: be a law or there is a law there is

1324
01:09:22,560 --> 01:09:24,720
Speaker 5: that's going to come in and the government is going

1325
01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 5: to tell them, you know what, they what they can

1326
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:31,320
Speaker 5: charge in these in these moments. And I'm cool with that,

1327
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:33,880
Speaker 5: but I'm my point is that you're saying that should

1328
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:34,680
Speaker 5: be the case all the time.

1329
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:37,280
Speaker 4: So the law, according to legum is that you can't

1330
01:09:37,360 --> 01:09:39,599
Speaker 4: increase rental prices by more than ten percent for thirty

1331
01:09:39,680 --> 01:09:42,439
Speaker 4: days after a state of emergency is declared. You're saying

1332
01:09:42,479 --> 01:09:44,560
Speaker 4: this should apply not just in a state of emergency,

1333
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 4: that it just but that's I guess that's a separate arge.

1334
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:50,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, because the free market in real estates such as

1335
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 5: as it is, you know, controlled by these landlords, has

1336
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 5: created an emergency where people can't afford housing around the country.

1337
01:09:57,520 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 4: I am not a necessarily like gimbi person, but they

1338
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:03,160
Speaker 4: would say that it also.

1339
01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:06,599
Speaker 1: Was sure for more building shure, yeah, build more too.

1340
01:10:06,720 --> 01:10:08,880
Speaker 4: So okay, so this is a happy medium. But Leham

1341
01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:10,599
Speaker 4: found this was up on the screen for a while.

1342
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:13,800
Speaker 4: But he found a five bedroom house in Manhattan Beach

1343
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:17,200
Speaker 4: that was like eight it was eighty seven to fifty

1344
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:20,080
Speaker 4: per month on December thirty first, and you can see

1345
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:24,240
Speaker 4: on Zillo that is now going for nineteen seven hundred

1346
01:10:24,240 --> 01:10:26,559
Speaker 4: and fifty a month, and that's one hundred and twenty

1347
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:29,400
Speaker 4: five percent increase, so clearly against the law.

1348
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:34,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know this, it reminds me of that

1349
01:10:35,240 --> 01:10:39,480
Speaker 5: very viral post by the grandson of one of Hollywood's

1350
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 5: founders where he posted does anybody have contact info for

1351
01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 5: private firefighters?

1352
01:10:47,160 --> 01:10:50,640
Speaker 1: Do you remember seeing that? He eventually he deleted it.

1353
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:58,519
Speaker 5: But it is this idea that you know, everything belongs

1354
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:02,559
Speaker 5: to the highest bidder. Yeah, yeah, which maybe is fair

1355
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 5: in a world where people amass their money in some

1356
01:11:05,320 --> 01:11:08,000
Speaker 5: type of a fair way. This is the This is

1357
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 5: like a third generation Hollywood guy who's just living off

1358
01:11:10,400 --> 01:11:11,920
Speaker 5: of his grandfather's hard work.

1359
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:13,799
Speaker 1: And what was so perfect about that story.

1360
01:11:14,040 --> 01:11:16,800
Speaker 5: I forget that, I forget who the grandfather was, but

1361
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:21,759
Speaker 5: the grandfather was known as somebody who came up from nothing,

1362
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:26,920
Speaker 5: worked alongside all of his other workers, was well liked

1363
01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:29,640
Speaker 5: by those kinds of people as very very classic up

1364
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:33,240
Speaker 5: from your bootstraps and first generation wealth thing down to

1365
01:11:33,360 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 5: two generations later, guy's never done anything but has a

1366
01:11:38,560 --> 01:11:43,519
Speaker 5: huge bank account and wants to hire private firemen to

1367
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:44,320
Speaker 5: come to his house.

1368
01:11:45,040 --> 01:11:48,679
Speaker 4: My soft theory is that you will always see price

1369
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:51,680
Speaker 4: gauging people attempting to take advantage of horrible situations. We've

1370
01:11:51,680 --> 01:11:53,120
Speaker 4: seen it many times in the past. We've seen it

1371
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:55,519
Speaker 4: really bad in the past, and Gilded Age and all

1372
01:11:55,560 --> 01:11:57,880
Speaker 4: of that feels like we've returned to. But I also

1373
01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:00,640
Speaker 4: think right now it's somehow worse. There's a level of

1374
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:04,320
Speaker 4: shamelessness that exists right now. And just going through that

1375
01:12:04,400 --> 01:12:06,760
Speaker 4: spreadsheet and looking at all of the l's people are

1376
01:12:06,840 --> 01:12:09,800
Speaker 4: quite literally posting to zilla like I mean, I didn't

1377
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:12,479
Speaker 4: know it was against the law to have such That's

1378
01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:14,080
Speaker 4: what it suggests to me is people don't even know

1379
01:12:14,160 --> 01:12:16,920
Speaker 4: that it's illegal. But like you should just morally be

1380
01:12:17,000 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 4: disgusted with yourself, and we should have a society where

1381
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:23,960
Speaker 4: people are horrified at the prospect of publicly lit alone

1382
01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 4: privately posting shit like that.

1383
01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:30,400
Speaker 5: And what's incredible is that some of those houses that

1384
01:12:30,520 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 5: they're doubling the price of are going to burn down.

1385
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:38,559
Speaker 5: Like this fire is still raging the two biggest ones,

1386
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:42,439
Speaker 5: pal Says and Eton, and the latest reporting has eighteen

1387
01:12:42,520 --> 01:12:46,719
Speaker 5: percent and thirty five percent contained, respectively, with the Santa

1388
01:12:46,760 --> 01:12:51,280
Speaker 5: Ana winds still ripping through this dry area. We're not

1389
01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 5: this is this is not remotely over and I think

1390
01:12:54,160 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 5: that's one of the things that is most defensive to

1391
01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:59,479
Speaker 5: people that you have people, you know, capitalizing on this

1392
01:13:00,520 --> 01:13:03,639
Speaker 5: before the city is even remotely out of danger.

1393
01:13:04,360 --> 01:13:07,320
Speaker 4: The latest update on the death toll, according to the

1394
01:13:07,360 --> 01:13:09,920
Speaker 4: medical examiners within the last six hours or so, is

1395
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:13,080
Speaker 4: that they've not been twenty five fire related deaths and

1396
01:13:13,320 --> 01:13:18,120
Speaker 4: the extreme fire danger remains high right now. So we

1397
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:20,639
Speaker 4: think we've seen the worst of it, but it's still

1398
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:21,679
Speaker 4: incredibly vulnerable.

1399
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:23,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's absolutely brutal.

1400
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:27,799
Speaker 5: With just four days until the TikTok ban is officially

1401
01:13:27,880 --> 01:13:31,439
Speaker 5: supposed to take effect, if the Supreme Court doesn't grant

1402
01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:35,599
Speaker 5: some stay of execution to the Chinese company or run app.

1403
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 5: Millions and millions of people when you can put this

1404
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 5: element up on the screen here in America are flocking

1405
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:47,640
Speaker 5: over to Red Note and what's including me. I'm over on,

1406
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:49,639
Speaker 5: I'm over on Red Note and people are like, what's

1407
01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:50,719
Speaker 5: ther it's your handle.

1408
01:13:50,800 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you got on TikTok and then immediately got

1409
01:13:53,280 --> 01:13:53,880
Speaker 4: on Red Note too.

1410
01:13:53,920 --> 01:13:55,240
Speaker 1: I got a Red Note before TikTok.

1411
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:57,280
Speaker 4: I think, wow, that's so perfect.

1412
01:13:57,520 --> 01:14:00,240
Speaker 5: So I'm not even a refugee. I think my just

1413
01:14:00,280 --> 01:14:02,519
Speaker 5: search Ryan grim on there. Maybe I don't know.

1414
01:14:03,800 --> 01:14:05,800
Speaker 1: I haven't posted anything on Red Note, but Red Note

1415
01:14:05,840 --> 01:14:06,960
Speaker 1: is actually kind of cool. But here.

1416
01:14:07,080 --> 01:14:12,040
Speaker 5: But what's amazing about this kind of own goal from

1417
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 5: the US is that TikTok is owned by Byte Dance,

1418
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:21,080
Speaker 5: which is Chinese. You know, uh company h Red Note

1419
01:14:21,680 --> 01:14:24,080
Speaker 5: is owned by the Chinese government. There's not even not

1420
01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:27,439
Speaker 5: even a layer right between between there.

1421
01:14:27,479 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 7: Now.

1422
01:14:28,280 --> 01:14:30,920
Speaker 5: Uh, it is the number one app in the store

1423
01:14:31,120 --> 01:14:33,639
Speaker 5: right now. I think lemon eight, which is also owned

1424
01:14:33,680 --> 01:14:35,200
Speaker 5: by Byte Dance, is number two.

1425
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:36,120
Speaker 1: Now.

1426
01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:41,160
Speaker 5: According to the law that bans TikTok, both Red Note

1427
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:44,280
Speaker 5: and Bite and Lemonade would also be banned, you know,

1428
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:47,400
Speaker 5: like because it says basically, if there's X number of

1429
01:14:47,520 --> 01:14:48,560
Speaker 5: million users.

1430
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 1: And it's a Chinese app, it's banned.

1431
01:14:51,400 --> 01:14:55,720
Speaker 5: So it's yeah, you're out of the frying pan into

1432
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:59,000
Speaker 5: the fryar, Like you're still kind of kind of get screwed.

1433
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:03,280
Speaker 5: But it's amazing to watch what's unfolding over there. You

1434
01:15:03,320 --> 01:15:06,880
Speaker 5: can put up this second element up there. The cultural

1435
01:15:06,920 --> 01:15:10,320
Speaker 5: exchanges between the Americans and Chinese are just absolutely delightful.

1436
01:15:10,640 --> 01:15:12,320
Speaker 1: This one has been going viral.

1437
01:15:13,800 --> 01:15:16,920
Speaker 5: Chinese user telling the Americans, look, you guys don't need

1438
01:15:16,960 --> 01:15:20,360
Speaker 5: a new app. You guys need a revolution. And you

1439
01:15:20,400 --> 01:15:21,880
Speaker 5: can go back and be like, all, hey, we'll get

1440
01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:24,600
Speaker 5: a revolution. But it's so by the way, it's so

1441
01:15:24,720 --> 01:15:27,360
Speaker 5: easy to get banned from Red Note. So you're having

1442
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:28,440
Speaker 5: a bunch of Chinese.

1443
01:15:28,160 --> 01:15:30,920
Speaker 4: Because what kind of revolution would you like us to have, sir?

1444
01:15:31,160 --> 01:15:34,040
Speaker 5: The censorship on Red Note is much more severe than

1445
01:15:34,520 --> 01:15:37,320
Speaker 5: on TikTok or American apps, so.

1446
01:15:37,720 --> 01:15:40,639
Speaker 4: Well, so Dan is Chinese, they're probably both equally censored

1447
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 4: and Red Note.

1448
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:45,120
Speaker 5: So you've got a bunch of Chinese users like basically

1449
01:15:45,640 --> 01:15:48,640
Speaker 5: giving cheat codes to the Americans, like here are the

1450
01:15:48,720 --> 01:15:52,479
Speaker 5: things you can't do if you want to knock at

1451
01:15:52,520 --> 01:15:56,600
Speaker 5: band anyway, So you're you're not on red note, not on.

1452
01:15:56,720 --> 01:15:59,880
Speaker 4: Red note, but you know who's all over red note

1453
01:16:00,040 --> 01:16:04,120
Speaker 4: can put up the next element. Luigi. Luigi is beloved

1454
01:16:04,200 --> 01:16:06,200
Speaker 4: on red note, according to people who have been Have

1455
01:16:06,280 --> 01:16:07,200
Speaker 4: you seen this, Ryan.

1456
01:16:07,320 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 5: Yes, I saw somebody say like, well, you know, why

1457
01:16:12,040 --> 01:16:14,479
Speaker 5: do you why the Chinese users love, you know, support

1458
01:16:14,520 --> 01:16:15,160
Speaker 5: Luigi so much?

1459
01:16:15,160 --> 01:16:18,120
Speaker 1: And somebody somebody said something like, that's the next element.

1460
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:22,320
Speaker 5: You know, he who carries the water for the community

1461
01:16:22,400 --> 01:16:26,879
Speaker 5: must be supported or something like that. That's delightful.

1462
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:28,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the next element. We can put it

1463
01:16:28,640 --> 01:16:33,320
Speaker 4: off on the screen. It's someone on ex posting screenshots

1464
01:16:33,400 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 4: of the Luigi love on red notes saying red note

1465
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:38,280
Speaker 4: is effing insane.

1466
01:16:39,439 --> 01:16:41,519
Speaker 5: Oh there is the person who carries firewood for the

1467
01:16:41,640 --> 01:16:44,599
Speaker 5: masses should not be left to freeze in the wind

1468
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:45,400
Speaker 5: and snow.

1469
01:16:46,160 --> 01:16:48,080
Speaker 1: That's much better than the one I said.

1470
01:16:48,479 --> 01:16:51,000
Speaker 4: And meanwhile, here's the next element as well. You had

1471
01:16:51,080 --> 01:16:55,400
Speaker 4: mister Beast yesterday pretty openly, actually this was later on

1472
01:16:56,320 --> 01:16:59,400
Speaker 4: Monday night, pretty openly saying okay, I'll find fine, I'll

1473
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:01,639
Speaker 4: buy TikTok so it doesn't get banned, and Ironically, I've

1474
01:17:01,640 --> 01:17:03,479
Speaker 4: had so many billionaires reach out to me since I

1475
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,320
Speaker 4: tweeted this. Let's see if we can pull it off.

1476
01:17:05,680 --> 01:17:10,120
Speaker 4: He posted, that's mister Beek saying that, as reports in

1477
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:13,439
Speaker 4: the New York Times and other places yesterday said Elon

1478
01:17:13,560 --> 01:17:17,519
Speaker 4: Musk was being considered by Chinese officials, this is who

1479
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:21,000
Speaker 4: the New York Times sourced their report to for purchasing

1480
01:17:22,160 --> 01:17:25,000
Speaker 4: TikTok in the United States head of the band. Which

1481
01:17:25,080 --> 01:17:27,120
Speaker 4: is interesting because to the extent that I have seen,

1482
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:32,479
Speaker 4: we haven't seen that floated in American media. So TikTok

1483
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:37,160
Speaker 4: totally denied that. But TikTok itself is mostly separate from China.

1484
01:17:38,040 --> 01:17:42,160
Speaker 4: The sort of allegation is that TikTok is based here

1485
01:17:42,360 --> 01:17:46,360
Speaker 4: in the US. But the allegation is accurate that Bitedance,

1486
01:17:46,479 --> 01:17:48,720
Speaker 4: while it's the parent company, does still have access to

1487
01:17:48,800 --> 01:17:52,360
Speaker 4: all of the data because of the way the Chinese

1488
01:17:52,400 --> 01:17:56,040
Speaker 4: government controls corporations that they would have to hand over

1489
01:17:56,200 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 4: data if the Chinese government asked that. There are many

1490
01:17:59,600 --> 01:18:02,360
Speaker 4: members actually have the Chinese Communist Party who work for

1491
01:18:02,640 --> 01:18:05,639
Speaker 4: byte Dance and byte Dance Beijing headquarters. Forbes has covered

1492
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:08,760
Speaker 4: this really extensively that there has been intentional censorship of

1493
01:18:08,880 --> 01:18:13,719
Speaker 4: journalists from byte Dance's headquarters, censorship of different political topics

1494
01:18:13,760 --> 01:18:16,360
Speaker 4: from the same places like those are all pretty well

1495
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:19,760
Speaker 4: fleshed out by reporting in Forbes and elsewhere. But it

1496
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 4: is true that there's at least a little bit of

1497
01:18:24,880 --> 01:18:28,439
Speaker 4: a firewall between the US operations are of TikTok, which

1498
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 4: is literally based here, and byte Dance, which operates the

1499
01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:34,559
Speaker 4: Chinese version of TikTok, and Lemonade, which is also apparently

1500
01:18:34,640 --> 01:18:37,760
Speaker 4: gaining in popularity. That does make it different than Red Note.

1501
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:40,760
Speaker 4: Red Note is, to your point, more heavily censored than

1502
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:43,559
Speaker 4: the US version of TikTok. I think what hawks would say,

1503
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:45,519
Speaker 4: and I probably agree with this point, is that the

1504
01:18:45,560 --> 01:18:50,719
Speaker 4: potential for censorship on TikTok by China does still exist.

1505
01:18:51,520 --> 01:18:55,800
Speaker 5: And yeah, and it's I think it's more about the

1506
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:59,960
Speaker 5: national security apparatus and the US concerned totally that China

1507
01:19:00,120 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 5: can get to push the algorithm around.

1508
01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:05,280
Speaker 4: They're jealous of that control. They want it for themselves.

1509
01:19:05,439 --> 01:19:07,919
Speaker 4: And also Facebook and acts and YouTube.

1510
01:19:08,000 --> 01:19:12,680
Speaker 5: Yes, and it's so hard for American policymakers to just

1511
01:19:12,800 --> 01:19:16,720
Speaker 5: think that, for instance, young people don't like the genocide

1512
01:19:16,720 --> 01:19:19,000
Speaker 5: in Gaza. They have to be like, well, they don't

1513
01:19:19,040 --> 01:19:22,600
Speaker 5: like the genocide in Gaza because this Chinese app is

1514
01:19:22,680 --> 01:19:25,800
Speaker 5: tricking them, or the Chinese app, this Chinese app is

1515
01:19:25,920 --> 01:19:31,000
Speaker 5: letting people see what's going on in Gaza, which you know,

1516
01:19:31,040 --> 01:19:34,599
Speaker 5: they kind of under pressure, you know, moved moved away from,

1517
01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 5: you know, showed they can be pushed around just like

1518
01:19:37,360 --> 01:19:41,479
Speaker 5: us big tech firms can be Elon. Musk, let's be clear,

1519
01:19:42,320 --> 01:19:45,200
Speaker 5: has enormous investments in China. Yes, so the idea that

1520
01:19:45,600 --> 01:19:49,320
Speaker 5: selling it to him does anything about Chinese control about

1521
01:19:49,400 --> 01:19:52,400
Speaker 5: over the app is kind of ridiculous. And also you

1522
01:19:52,400 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 5: would hope that FTC would be like, wait a minute,

1523
01:19:55,800 --> 01:19:57,559
Speaker 5: you can't own both Twitter and TikTok.

1524
01:19:58,680 --> 01:19:59,240
Speaker 1: That's crazy.

1525
01:19:59,640 --> 01:20:04,840
Speaker 4: Yes, you would think it's like completely to your point,

1526
01:20:04,960 --> 01:20:09,280
Speaker 4: like the Starlink operations in Ukraine, actually in Israel and Gaza,

1527
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:13,439
Speaker 4: he's involved significantly as a defense tractor, but also as

1528
01:20:13,439 --> 01:20:15,840
Speaker 4: the owner of Starlink in conflicts around the world. There's

1529
01:20:15,840 --> 01:20:20,720
Speaker 4: also SpaceX. I mean, it's just to applaud this from

1530
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:24,800
Speaker 4: populist right wing perspective is completely bananas and act like

1531
01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:27,640
Speaker 4: this is a power that should exist. And I mean

1532
01:20:27,720 --> 01:20:29,439
Speaker 4: even X, I think is too much power.

1533
01:20:29,560 --> 01:20:31,479
Speaker 1: For one billionaire to own shore.

1534
01:20:32,000 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 4: So yeah, well, definitely agree on that, but it's to

1535
01:20:35,640 --> 01:20:37,639
Speaker 4: an extent. I mean, I was thinking about this today.

1536
01:20:38,000 --> 01:20:40,719
Speaker 4: It's this red note stuff. The memes are really funny.

1537
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:45,680
Speaker 4: But whether or not we agree with the policies of

1538
01:20:46,080 --> 01:20:50,720
Speaker 4: the Military Industrial Complex and the Pentagon, we could not

1539
01:20:51,080 --> 01:20:54,200
Speaker 4: in the distant future find ourselves in the situation where

1540
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:57,639
Speaker 4: China is literally trying to kill American soldiers and vice versa.

1541
01:20:58,320 --> 01:21:01,240
Speaker 4: And this will get a lot that's funny at that point.

1542
01:21:01,520 --> 01:21:04,200
Speaker 5: Yes, but I would hope that culture exchanges like this

1543
01:21:04,320 --> 01:21:09,240
Speaker 5: would make a war less likely as the working people

1544
01:21:09,280 --> 01:21:11,280
Speaker 5: in the United States realize they have more in common

1545
01:21:11,320 --> 01:21:13,040
Speaker 5: with the working people in China than they do with

1546
01:21:13,160 --> 01:21:18,800
Speaker 5: their billionaire owners. As Mac pointed out on Twitter, I

1547
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:21,120
Speaker 5: think that the culture exchange is great. And you know,

1548
01:21:21,600 --> 01:21:26,120
Speaker 5: there has been this interesting this is the Well's there's

1549
01:21:26,120 --> 01:21:26,800
Speaker 5: the blue ging theory.

1550
01:21:26,840 --> 01:21:27,360
Speaker 1: But also.

1551
01:21:28,880 --> 01:21:31,280
Speaker 5: Because of the way that China has its firewalled internet,

1552
01:21:33,240 --> 01:21:35,200
Speaker 5: the rest of the Internet, the US kind of run

1553
01:21:35,240 --> 01:21:38,439
Speaker 5: Internet has existed for the most part without the billion

1554
01:21:38,479 --> 01:21:41,160
Speaker 5: plus people in China, Like there hasn't been a whole

1555
01:21:41,200 --> 01:21:43,360
Speaker 5: lot of of exchange there.

1556
01:21:43,479 --> 01:21:45,240
Speaker 4: That's true, and.

1557
01:21:45,360 --> 01:21:48,280
Speaker 5: I've heard people say that it's good that that's not

1558
01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:52,439
Speaker 5: the case, because if it was, every single thing on

1559
01:21:52,560 --> 01:21:57,360
Speaker 5: the Internet would devolve in including like the comment section

1560
01:21:57,479 --> 01:21:59,880
Speaker 5: in this video, would devolve into just flame wars in

1561
01:22:00,080 --> 01:22:05,160
Speaker 5: the posts between Indian and Chinese people, and which is

1562
01:22:05,240 --> 01:22:09,719
Speaker 5: completely dominate, wash wash everything else away. But otherwise people

1563
01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:14,400
Speaker 5: are I think loving having these exchanges with regular Chinese people.

1564
01:22:15,320 --> 01:22:16,639
Speaker 4: Well, I was gonna say, to the extent.

1565
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:21,240
Speaker 5: The like, you've had Americans helping Chinese people with their

1566
01:22:21,240 --> 01:22:24,240
Speaker 5: English homework, and if you can sigh up Americans into

1567
01:22:24,320 --> 01:22:25,960
Speaker 5: doing homework, that's a win.

1568
01:22:26,360 --> 01:22:29,840
Speaker 4: Well, to the extent that governments, which we know for

1569
01:22:29,920 --> 01:22:32,680
Speaker 4: a fact, exerted control over x over the course of

1570
01:22:32,720 --> 01:22:36,920
Speaker 4: the pandemic Google as well, to the extent that the

1571
01:22:36,960 --> 01:22:40,240
Speaker 4: two governments don't, you know, try to escalate rather than

1572
01:22:40,280 --> 01:22:43,160
Speaker 4: diffuse tensions via these apps. They don't use them as

1573
01:22:43,200 --> 01:22:47,200
Speaker 4: propaganda channels to sort of pump up hostilities. Then I think,

1574
01:22:47,439 --> 01:22:49,920
Speaker 4: you know, diffusing tension. I'm all for diffusing tension with

1575
01:22:50,000 --> 01:22:54,120
Speaker 4: cultural exchange. I'm just highly skeptical that these are channels

1576
01:22:54,240 --> 01:22:56,599
Speaker 4: to do that, given how much control our governments will

1577
01:22:56,680 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 4: exert do exert over them, and in the case of TikTok,

1578
01:23:00,240 --> 01:23:04,040
Speaker 4: Elon Musk is perhaps the best friend of the incoming president.

1579
01:23:04,439 --> 01:23:08,320
Speaker 4: He's and Chairman She yes, this is in a unique position,

1580
01:23:08,920 --> 01:23:10,840
Speaker 4: which again we could be looking at ten twenty one

1581
01:23:10,920 --> 01:23:14,559
Speaker 4: hundred years from now and saying, wow, that was really helpful.

1582
01:23:14,960 --> 01:23:19,960
Speaker 4: That really spared us some unnecessary conflict, but very much

1583
01:23:20,080 --> 01:23:20,919
Speaker 4: yet to be determined.

1584
01:23:21,880 --> 01:23:26,640
Speaker 5: Ultimately a complete and total humiliation for Silicon Valley that

1585
01:23:27,720 --> 01:23:31,080
Speaker 5: Americans being told that they're going to lose access to

1586
01:23:31,160 --> 01:23:36,320
Speaker 5: TikTok are not flocking to Instagram or Threads or Facebook

1587
01:23:36,479 --> 01:23:41,400
Speaker 5: or whatever other bile that Silicon Valley has puked up

1588
01:23:41,439 --> 01:23:43,240
Speaker 5: over the last ten to fifteen years.

1589
01:23:43,240 --> 01:23:45,800
Speaker 1: And they're like, what else has Chairman she got going

1590
01:23:45,880 --> 01:23:46,160
Speaker 1: for us?

1591
01:23:46,360 --> 01:23:47,080
Speaker 4: Let's take a look.

1592
01:23:47,160 --> 01:23:50,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're learning like Mandarin and how to type in

1593
01:23:51,040 --> 01:23:53,000
Speaker 5: Chinese characters because it's easier to use the app that

1594
01:23:53,080 --> 01:23:55,280
Speaker 5: way that you love to see.

1595
01:23:55,560 --> 01:23:57,519
Speaker 4: We'll see where it goes, all right, This is actually

1596
01:23:57,520 --> 01:24:00,479
Speaker 4: great lead into our next block, Ryan about how Donald

1597
01:24:00,520 --> 01:24:03,640
Speaker 4: Trump could potentially in the strangest way possible. It's sort

1598
01:24:03,640 --> 01:24:05,560
Speaker 4: of the theme of today's show that all of the

1599
01:24:05,800 --> 01:24:09,519
Speaker 4: unorthodox either baggage or advantages Donald Trump comes into office

1600
01:24:09,600 --> 01:24:13,040
Speaker 4: with could potentially lead us on a path towards peace

1601
01:24:13,120 --> 01:24:14,960
Speaker 4: because he's not stuck in the kind of Cold War

1602
01:24:15,080 --> 01:24:19,840
Speaker 4: inertia that most official Washington is. So let's go ahead

1603
01:24:19,960 --> 01:24:20,760
Speaker 4: and have that debate.

1604
01:24:21,360 --> 01:24:25,719
Speaker 5: Princeton astrophysicist Robert Gottson has floated the idea that Trump

1605
01:24:25,760 --> 01:24:27,320
Speaker 5: could actually get three Nobel Prizes.

1606
01:24:27,479 --> 01:24:28,080
Speaker 4: We'll see.

1607
01:24:30,760 --> 01:24:34,320
Speaker 5: Incoming President Donald Trump seems on the brink of inking

1608
01:24:34,520 --> 01:24:41,080
Speaker 5: a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas could be Nobel

1609
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:47,639
Speaker 5: Peace Prize worthy, according to Professor Robert Golston, astrophysicists at

1610
01:24:47,920 --> 01:24:52,880
Speaker 5: Princeton University, who earlier this week float had a really

1611
01:24:52,920 --> 01:24:56,760
Speaker 5: provocative and fascinating column and over at Fox News called

1612
01:24:56,800 --> 01:24:58,400
Speaker 5: we can put this element up the screen here called

1613
01:24:58,680 --> 01:25:01,280
Speaker 5: how Donald Trump can make his and when three.

1614
01:25:01,880 --> 01:25:02,880
Speaker 1: Nobel Peace Prizes?

1615
01:25:02,920 --> 01:25:06,240
Speaker 5: And now, to be clear, Professor Golson was not saying

1616
01:25:06,320 --> 01:25:11,439
Speaker 5: that simply getting a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel would

1617
01:25:11,479 --> 01:25:12,960
Speaker 5: make him eligible for that peace prize.

1618
01:25:13,360 --> 01:25:14,920
Speaker 1: There's more that he would have to do on that.

1619
01:25:15,680 --> 01:25:19,639
Speaker 5: But I think it's interesting to walk through the three

1620
01:25:19,840 --> 01:25:24,439
Speaker 5: different Nobel peace prizes that you believe he could actually

1621
01:25:24,560 --> 01:25:28,120
Speaker 5: legitimately be in line for because of the historical conditions

1622
01:25:28,160 --> 01:25:30,880
Speaker 5: in which he's coming into office, and also the through

1623
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:34,040
Speaker 5: line between all three of them. So let's start with

1624
01:25:34,600 --> 01:25:36,320
Speaker 5: the one in the Mid East, since that's the one

1625
01:25:36,360 --> 01:25:41,919
Speaker 5: that approximately is going on right now. Were you surprised

1626
01:25:42,240 --> 01:25:44,040
Speaker 5: that he was able to get this breakthrough over the

1627
01:25:44,120 --> 01:25:47,680
Speaker 5: last couple of days, and then what steps have to

1628
01:25:47,760 --> 01:25:51,640
Speaker 5: happen after this to make it enduring enough for the

1629
01:25:51,920 --> 01:25:55,320
Speaker 5: Nobel Committee to say, you know what, this guy who

1630
01:25:55,520 --> 01:25:59,120
Speaker 5: they probably all despise, you know, just from a cultural perspective,

1631
01:25:59,640 --> 01:26:02,240
Speaker 5: deserve nerves a Nobel Peace Prize.

1632
01:26:03,840 --> 01:26:09,640
Speaker 8: Well, so all indications are that President elect Trump, I

1633
01:26:09,680 --> 01:26:13,439
Speaker 8: guess we should say in this context put some pressure

1634
01:26:14,000 --> 01:26:16,719
Speaker 8: on Netanyahu to agree to some of the last bits

1635
01:26:16,760 --> 01:26:21,960
Speaker 8: of this deal. And you know, his I think general

1636
01:26:22,040 --> 01:26:26,840
Speaker 8: philosophy is peace through strength, and you know, his claim

1637
01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:30,400
Speaker 8: that all hell will pay seems to have, so to speak,

1638
01:26:30,439 --> 01:26:33,439
Speaker 8: paid off. But if you but you know, there's two

1639
01:26:33,520 --> 01:26:36,120
Speaker 8: more stages in this deal that's going to have to

1640
01:26:36,200 --> 01:26:38,760
Speaker 8: be gone through. Well, let's let's hope by the time

1641
01:26:38,840 --> 01:26:42,720
Speaker 8: this is broadcast the first stage has been signed off,

1642
01:26:43,240 --> 01:26:46,360
Speaker 8: so there's more to be done. And then ultimately the

1643
01:26:46,520 --> 01:26:50,679
Speaker 8: real big issue is the situation in Iran. That Iran

1644
01:26:50,880 --> 01:26:54,760
Speaker 8: is right on the brink of nuclear weapons, so we

1645
01:26:54,960 --> 01:27:00,280
Speaker 8: need a new comprehensive deal that pulls I Ran back

1646
01:27:00,320 --> 01:27:04,280
Speaker 8: from the brink, which we think we could do. I

1647
01:27:04,360 --> 01:27:09,320
Speaker 8: think we could do if we make an arrangement with

1648
01:27:09,479 --> 01:27:14,280
Speaker 8: them where they can make enriched uranium for their reactors.

1649
01:27:15,479 --> 01:27:20,040
Speaker 8: But they never go above say four or five percent enrichment,

1650
01:27:20,479 --> 01:27:24,519
Speaker 8: so it's just not usable for a bomb that puts

1651
01:27:24,680 --> 01:27:28,400
Speaker 8: them in a situation where they get what they've explicitly

1652
01:27:28,439 --> 01:27:31,599
Speaker 8: said they wanted and they don't get what they had

1653
01:27:31,720 --> 01:27:35,320
Speaker 8: said they don't want, which is a bomb. We can

1654
01:27:35,520 --> 01:27:38,040
Speaker 8: put verification measures in I've actually done some of the

1655
01:27:38,120 --> 01:27:42,639
Speaker 8: research on this me and many others, But you can

1656
01:27:42,960 --> 01:27:46,800
Speaker 8: put verification measures in place to be sure that they're

1657
01:27:47,080 --> 01:27:54,599
Speaker 8: just making uranium for their reactors. Then you say, what's

1658
01:27:54,680 --> 01:27:58,800
Speaker 8: the deal on the other side, And it's clear that

1659
01:27:58,880 --> 01:28:01,600
Speaker 8: if we're going to move forward these Abraham Accords, we

1660
01:28:01,720 --> 01:28:07,479
Speaker 8: need to have a plan for a demilitarized Palestinian state.

1661
01:28:08,640 --> 01:28:11,160
Speaker 8: But that has to go through stages, and that has

1662
01:28:11,240 --> 01:28:16,800
Speaker 8: to get strong verification, strong controls it that it stays demilitarized,

1663
01:28:17,439 --> 01:28:19,880
Speaker 8: and that would be a deal that would settle the

1664
01:28:19,960 --> 01:28:22,759
Speaker 8: Middle East. You wouldn't have the threat of the Iranian

1665
01:28:22,840 --> 01:28:27,440
Speaker 8: nuclear weapons, and you wouldn't have this continuous problem. Hamas

1666
01:28:27,720 --> 01:28:31,479
Speaker 8: you know, wanted to take over all of Israel, and

1667
01:28:31,800 --> 01:28:33,920
Speaker 8: some of the right wingers in Israel would like to

1668
01:28:34,320 --> 01:28:38,840
Speaker 8: expel the Arabs, and so you know, nobody's going to

1669
01:28:38,880 --> 01:28:42,880
Speaker 8: get everything they want. But we could have a situation

1670
01:28:43,479 --> 01:28:47,200
Speaker 8: where maybe even Iran joins the Abraham Accords. This I

1671
01:28:47,280 --> 01:28:49,360
Speaker 8: think gets gets President Trump a.

1672
01:28:49,439 --> 01:28:51,800
Speaker 5: Nobel prized But before you go to that, just just

1673
01:28:51,880 --> 01:28:54,519
Speaker 5: want to be clear to the audience that just kind

1674
01:28:54,520 --> 01:28:57,759
Speaker 5: of not like a random scientist putting out political ideas.

1675
01:28:57,800 --> 01:28:59,640
Speaker 5: Like your entire career has been in the in the

1676
01:28:59,680 --> 01:29:03,600
Speaker 5: field to kind of nuclear policy and nuclear proliferation, and

1677
01:29:03,680 --> 01:29:06,080
Speaker 5: so you and like you were saying, you've done a

1678
01:29:06,080 --> 01:29:09,360
Speaker 5: lot of the research on how it is now possible

1679
01:29:09,520 --> 01:29:14,519
Speaker 5: for countries to verify in a serious way, you know what,

1680
01:29:15,840 --> 01:29:20,240
Speaker 5: whether other countries are living up to the deals that

1681
01:29:20,360 --> 01:29:24,920
Speaker 5: they strike without also then giving away nuclear information back

1682
01:29:25,000 --> 01:29:27,560
Speaker 5: to their adversaries.

1683
01:29:27,560 --> 01:29:30,080
Speaker 1: And that is a through line for all three of these.

1684
01:29:30,160 --> 01:29:31,360
Speaker 1: But go ahead, you were.

1685
01:29:31,320 --> 01:29:33,880
Speaker 4: Saying, professor, Yeah, just in the last twenty four hours,

1686
01:29:33,960 --> 01:29:37,639
Speaker 4: we have actually an interview with the President of Iran

1687
01:29:37,960 --> 01:29:40,519
Speaker 4: and Lester Holt on NBC Nightly News. We have a

1688
01:29:40,680 --> 01:29:43,280
Speaker 4: clip of that we want to roll. Now, let's go

1689
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:44,280
Speaker 4: ahead and play this.

1690
01:29:44,720 --> 01:29:49,920
Speaker 18: One potential threat to diplomacy could be seen as what

1691
01:29:50,040 --> 01:29:54,479
Speaker 18: the US believes or the Iran's plan to assassinate Donald Trump.

1692
01:29:55,320 --> 01:29:57,360
Speaker 18: Was there such a plan, Jami?

1693
01:29:59,800 --> 01:30:03,719
Speaker 12: The assassinations and acts of terror that we see happening

1694
01:30:04,439 --> 01:30:09,200
Speaker 12: in Europe and elsewhere, can we see the footsteps of

1695
01:30:09,479 --> 01:30:13,479
Speaker 12: Iranian nationals or other foreign nationals? Have there been any

1696
01:30:13,960 --> 01:30:16,040
Speaker 12: links between those terrorist assassinations?

1697
01:30:16,080 --> 01:30:16,400
Speaker 8: Anyone?

1698
01:30:16,479 --> 01:30:21,759
Speaker 12: Everyone has never been in pursuit of assassination.

1699
01:30:21,400 --> 01:30:22,280
Speaker 1: And acts of terror.

1700
01:30:23,000 --> 01:30:26,000
Speaker 18: You're saying there was never an Iranian plot to kill

1701
01:30:26,040 --> 01:30:26,639
Speaker 18: Donald Trump.

1702
01:30:29,040 --> 01:30:30,000
Speaker 12: Never, by no means.

1703
01:30:30,479 --> 01:30:32,360
Speaker 18: Are you willing to promise that there will be no

1704
01:30:32,479 --> 01:30:35,200
Speaker 18: attempt on the life of Donald Trump ever.

1705
01:30:35,160 --> 01:30:38,400
Speaker 12: Since the beginning? We never intended to do.

1706
01:30:38,479 --> 01:30:42,040
Speaker 4: That, Okay, So the most persuasive Yes, he promised to

1707
01:30:42,160 --> 01:30:46,600
Speaker 4: lesteral So, professor, Obviously, I.

1708
01:30:46,640 --> 01:30:49,479
Speaker 8: Will promise I have technology or we in the United

1709
01:30:49,520 --> 01:30:52,600
Speaker 8: States have technology to assure that they won't do that.

1710
01:30:52,960 --> 01:30:56,280
Speaker 4: Right, So it's it would be enormously provocative for him

1711
01:30:56,280 --> 01:30:58,360
Speaker 4: to go and ABC Nightly News and just say hell, yeah,

1712
01:30:58,400 --> 01:31:01,040
Speaker 4: we want to kill the guy. That would be absurd

1713
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:04,120
Speaker 4: and never happen. On the other hand, Donald Trump doesn't

1714
01:31:04,160 --> 01:31:06,519
Speaker 4: want to look like he's making a deal with people

1715
01:31:06,640 --> 01:31:09,759
Speaker 4: who want to kill him. And when I think about

1716
01:31:09,800 --> 01:31:11,760
Speaker 4: the way Donald Trump approaches some of this, even just

1717
01:31:11,800 --> 01:31:15,200
Speaker 4: seeing how the ceasefire negotiations are transpiring right now, he

1718
01:31:15,360 --> 01:31:17,920
Speaker 4: doesn't want to be humiliated. He doesn't want America to

1719
01:31:17,960 --> 01:31:20,960
Speaker 4: be humiliated. He doesn't want to be personally humiliated. Could

1720
01:31:21,000 --> 01:31:23,439
Speaker 4: you talk to us just a little bit about even

1721
01:31:23,600 --> 01:31:28,679
Speaker 4: the psychology or the politics of a negotiation with Donald Trump,

1722
01:31:29,560 --> 01:31:33,320
Speaker 4: you know, when whether it's Iran or Israel a Gaza

1723
01:31:33,520 --> 01:31:36,479
Speaker 4: on these three potential Nobel Peace prizes, which we also

1724
01:31:36,600 --> 01:31:41,080
Speaker 4: psychologically know would be very appealing to him. Indeed, what

1725
01:31:42,320 --> 01:31:45,599
Speaker 4: is the leverage if you're Iran? What is the leverage

1726
01:31:45,840 --> 01:31:47,200
Speaker 4: if you're on the other side of the table from

1727
01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:49,280
Speaker 4: Donald Trump in any of these three scenarios.

1728
01:31:50,320 --> 01:31:53,000
Speaker 8: Well, I think right now Ron is at a low

1729
01:31:53,080 --> 01:31:56,599
Speaker 8: point in its strength and its influence in that area,

1730
01:31:57,479 --> 01:32:00,719
Speaker 8: you know, with what happened with Hesbola, what happened with Hamas,

1731
01:32:01,439 --> 01:32:05,920
Speaker 8: what will probably eventually happen with the huties He's the

1732
01:32:06,000 --> 01:32:10,560
Speaker 8: Iranians are facing a situation where they are weak and

1733
01:32:11,080 --> 01:32:17,240
Speaker 8: Donald Trump has an air force that can destroy their

1734
01:32:17,360 --> 01:32:23,200
Speaker 8: nuclear program. That's my sense is that Donald Trump likes

1735
01:32:23,240 --> 01:32:26,920
Speaker 8: to negotiate from strength, and he likes to actually, in

1736
01:32:27,000 --> 01:32:29,240
Speaker 8: a way not make clear what he's doing, which is

1737
01:32:29,280 --> 01:32:32,479
Speaker 8: an interesting approach and seems to have worked, right we

1738
01:32:32,680 --> 01:32:37,400
Speaker 8: at least hopefully seem support with the Israelis and Hamas.

1739
01:32:39,240 --> 01:32:41,479
Speaker 8: So I think it puts him in a not bad

1740
01:32:41,600 --> 01:32:45,960
Speaker 8: position to say, you know, here's a deal that gets

1741
01:32:46,040 --> 01:32:49,000
Speaker 8: you what you want and prevents you from getting a

1742
01:32:49,080 --> 01:32:51,680
Speaker 8: bomb which you said you don't want, and if you

1743
01:32:51,720 --> 01:32:53,080
Speaker 8: don't take it, they'll be hell to pay.

1744
01:32:54,320 --> 01:32:55,120
Speaker 1: And so let's go to this.

1745
01:32:55,479 --> 01:32:58,280
Speaker 5: Let's go to the second one then, which actually, which

1746
01:32:58,280 --> 01:33:00,840
Speaker 5: one would you call a second you know, Europe or

1747
01:33:00,880 --> 01:33:03,439
Speaker 5: the comprehensive of you. I'd say Europe is kind of

1748
01:33:04,120 --> 01:33:05,519
Speaker 5: makes makes the most sense to talk.

1749
01:33:05,360 --> 01:33:07,880
Speaker 8: About next, Yeah, I think. So then we go to

1750
01:33:07,920 --> 01:33:09,479
Speaker 8: the biggest picture. Yeah, that makes sense.

1751
01:33:10,360 --> 01:33:13,559
Speaker 5: So where do you see the possibility of a Nobel

1752
01:33:13,600 --> 01:33:16,519
Speaker 5: Peace Prize in Europe and Ukraine?

1753
01:33:16,920 --> 01:33:20,240
Speaker 8: Well, obviously there's been horrible death going on in Ukraine,

1754
01:33:21,280 --> 01:33:26,160
Speaker 8: actually on both sides, and it's crazy. Where it comes

1755
01:33:26,240 --> 01:33:31,920
Speaker 8: from ultimately is that if Ukraine were to join NATO

1756
01:33:33,120 --> 01:33:38,639
Speaker 8: and NATO where to station missiles in Ukraine, then there'd

1757
01:33:38,680 --> 01:33:43,599
Speaker 8: be a situation where Ukraine or NATO from Ukraine could

1758
01:33:44,280 --> 01:33:47,799
Speaker 8: mount a decapitating they call it nuclear strike on Moscow

1759
01:33:48,200 --> 01:33:51,720
Speaker 8: and just take out Moscow's leadership with a missile that

1760
01:33:51,760 --> 01:33:54,840
Speaker 8: would take less than ten minutes to arrive.

1761
01:33:56,200 --> 01:33:58,000
Speaker 1: And do they not have that? Does NATO not have

1762
01:33:58,120 --> 01:33:59,799
Speaker 1: that capacity currently?

1763
01:34:01,960 --> 01:34:04,599
Speaker 8: Well, it's an interesting story, but yes, at this point

1764
01:34:04,680 --> 01:34:08,000
Speaker 8: we do not. It's got to be a much more,

1765
01:34:08,280 --> 01:34:13,519
Speaker 8: much longer distance attack so that there is a chance

1766
01:34:13,680 --> 01:34:16,679
Speaker 8: for decision making in Moscow, for people to get into

1767
01:34:16,720 --> 01:34:21,200
Speaker 8: a protected position, stuff like that, so that currently we

1768
01:34:21,320 --> 01:34:27,120
Speaker 8: don't have that decapitating strike, that very quick decapitating strike capability.

1769
01:34:27,960 --> 01:34:33,200
Speaker 8: But if nuclear missiles got located in Ukraine then that

1770
01:34:33,320 --> 01:34:35,920
Speaker 8: would be a big problem. I mean, that was the

1771
01:34:36,040 --> 01:34:38,760
Speaker 8: sort of there was a whole lot of dressing around this.

1772
01:34:39,000 --> 01:34:42,880
Speaker 8: You know, Ukraine has historical ties to Russian so farth

1773
01:34:43,000 --> 01:34:46,160
Speaker 8: and so on. But the strategic issue is really the

1774
01:34:46,280 --> 01:34:49,880
Speaker 8: expansion of NATO, and the problem with the expansion of

1775
01:34:50,000 --> 01:34:54,640
Speaker 8: NATO if they can put missiles in Europe is this

1776
01:34:55,000 --> 01:34:59,120
Speaker 8: decapitating strike, and there isn't an equivalent thing that Russia

1777
01:34:59,160 --> 01:35:03,400
Speaker 8: can do to us, so there's no balance there. So

1778
01:35:03,560 --> 01:35:07,879
Speaker 8: the smart thing to do at this point, in my opinion,

1779
01:35:08,320 --> 01:35:11,679
Speaker 8: is to make a deal where there are no US

1780
01:35:12,080 --> 01:35:16,679
Speaker 8: or Russian missiles anywhere between Iceland on the one hand,

1781
01:35:16,880 --> 01:35:19,200
Speaker 8: and the Ural Mountains which are far to the east

1782
01:35:19,320 --> 01:35:23,439
Speaker 8: of Moscow, so that if there are no nuclear weapons

1783
01:35:23,520 --> 01:35:26,720
Speaker 8: in that area, you lose the whole hair trigger situation

1784
01:35:27,600 --> 01:35:33,519
Speaker 8: of sudden strikes, and you also lose this problem of Ukraine. Now,

1785
01:35:34,200 --> 01:35:40,559
Speaker 8: the problem in Ukraine loses its strategic salience, and you've

1786
01:35:40,600 --> 01:35:45,040
Speaker 8: got a possibility again, I think probably arguing from a

1787
01:35:45,120 --> 01:35:49,840
Speaker 8: position of strength. You know, I sense that Donald Trump

1788
01:35:49,920 --> 01:35:53,000
Speaker 8: doesn't like to say, you know, I'll put NATO troops

1789
01:35:53,040 --> 01:35:59,200
Speaker 8: into the Ukraine, be specific. But there's a situation on

1790
01:35:59,240 --> 01:36:02,000
Speaker 8: the battlefield that maybe a deal could be made, but

1791
01:36:02,120 --> 01:36:03,559
Speaker 8: it needs that broader context.

1792
01:36:04,960 --> 01:36:07,760
Speaker 5: And so then the third Nobel Piece prize you talked

1793
01:36:07,760 --> 01:36:10,640
Speaker 5: about is something that you don't hear talked about in

1794
01:36:10,720 --> 01:36:15,839
Speaker 5: the news, which is a more global nuclear treaty between

1795
01:36:16,720 --> 01:36:20,200
Speaker 5: the three major nuclear powers China, Russia.

1796
01:36:19,840 --> 01:36:20,599
Speaker 1: And the United States.

1797
01:36:20,680 --> 01:36:24,760
Speaker 5: Can you talk a little bit about the technical innovations

1798
01:36:25,600 --> 01:36:27,800
Speaker 5: that have led us to a place where some of

1799
01:36:27,880 --> 01:36:31,920
Speaker 5: the previous agreements are either obsolete or actually dangerous at

1800
01:36:31,920 --> 01:36:32,360
Speaker 5: this moment.

1801
01:36:33,960 --> 01:36:39,559
Speaker 8: Well, yeah, sure. What's happened is that we are pushing

1802
01:36:39,720 --> 01:36:48,479
Speaker 8: forward with missile defenses that mostly scientists think can't really

1803
01:36:48,720 --> 01:36:54,360
Speaker 8: stop an attack from Russia or China. We have forty

1804
01:36:54,400 --> 01:36:58,599
Speaker 8: four missiles, and they have hundreds and hundreds of missiles,

1805
01:36:59,040 --> 01:37:03,479
Speaker 8: so there's no way that we can stop even a

1806
01:37:03,600 --> 01:37:07,679
Speaker 8: large fraction of them, even with a miraculously good missile defense.

1807
01:37:09,000 --> 01:37:12,519
Speaker 8: But we do need those missile defenses to be sure

1808
01:37:12,680 --> 01:37:15,920
Speaker 8: that if a rogue state like North Korea or god forbid,

1809
01:37:16,000 --> 01:37:19,240
Speaker 8: Iran gets a nuclear weapon, that they can't attack us.

1810
01:37:20,080 --> 01:37:24,640
Speaker 8: So we need to make an arrangement where we can

1811
01:37:24,880 --> 01:37:28,439
Speaker 8: verifiably show that we have a certain number of launchers

1812
01:37:28,520 --> 01:37:32,320
Speaker 8: that can that can take out icbm's intercontinental ballistic missiles,

1813
01:37:33,080 --> 01:37:36,800
Speaker 8: so that that you don't need these crazy responses that

1814
01:37:37,040 --> 01:37:39,360
Speaker 8: the Russians and the Chinese are coming up with. The

1815
01:37:39,439 --> 01:37:43,439
Speaker 8: Russians are coming up with nuclear powered cruise missiles that

1816
01:37:43,560 --> 01:37:46,360
Speaker 8: can go around over the South Pole and attack us,

1817
01:37:46,479 --> 01:37:51,240
Speaker 8: and with this gigantic torpedo that can run across the

1818
01:37:51,320 --> 01:37:56,880
Speaker 8: ocean and destroy a city like Washington. So you need

1819
01:37:57,120 --> 01:37:58,439
Speaker 8: you need so make just.

1820
01:37:58,560 --> 01:38:00,240
Speaker 1: On that point, so we would not be able to

1821
01:38:00,280 --> 01:38:01,200
Speaker 1: detect it underwater.

1822
01:38:01,360 --> 01:38:06,760
Speaker 8: Is that the Well, that's a that's the sort of question.

1823
01:38:06,840 --> 01:38:08,559
Speaker 8: If I answered it, you know, you'd have to shoot

1824
01:38:08,560 --> 01:38:10,280
Speaker 8: me or shoot myself or something.

1825
01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:13,840
Speaker 1: Maybe we don't want to, but that's the but that's

1826
01:38:13,880 --> 01:38:14,360
Speaker 1: the idea.

1827
01:38:15,280 --> 01:38:17,800
Speaker 8: Well, now, the idea would be that they have they

1828
01:38:17,880 --> 01:38:21,880
Speaker 8: have submarines. These are these are very big torpedoes, and

1829
01:38:22,080 --> 01:38:24,519
Speaker 8: there would have to be an inspection protocol just the

1830
01:38:24,560 --> 01:38:26,599
Speaker 8: way they'd have to be an inspection protocol to show

1831
01:38:26,640 --> 01:38:30,080
Speaker 8: that we didn't have too many launchers. And in that

1832
01:38:30,280 --> 01:38:33,880
Speaker 8: situation you can get to a point where you could

1833
01:38:33,960 --> 01:38:37,840
Speaker 8: start bringing down some of the some of the things

1834
01:38:37,880 --> 01:38:43,240
Speaker 8: that are already there. We currently have about four hundred

1835
01:38:43,320 --> 01:38:47,400
Speaker 8: missiles on hair trigger alert in silos that you can

1836
01:38:47,520 --> 01:38:51,000
Speaker 8: find on Google Maps, and that the Russians obviously can

1837
01:38:51,040 --> 01:38:54,759
Speaker 8: find on Google Maps. The Chinese have are now building

1838
01:38:54,880 --> 01:38:58,480
Speaker 8: up a similar capability. The Russians have about the same capability.

1839
01:38:58,960 --> 01:39:02,720
Speaker 8: And these are just crazy items because you have very

1840
01:39:02,760 --> 01:39:05,640
Speaker 8: little time to decide to use them. And then you

1841
01:39:05,840 --> 01:39:08,640
Speaker 8: also worry that if you're a significant part of your

1842
01:39:08,760 --> 01:39:13,599
Speaker 8: arsenal is vulnerable, then you're more worried about a first strike,

1843
01:39:14,080 --> 01:39:16,160
Speaker 8: and the rut and the Chinese could be more worried

1844
01:39:16,160 --> 01:39:19,439
Speaker 8: about a first strike, and so then that puts everything

1845
01:39:20,240 --> 01:39:24,679
Speaker 8: right on a hair trigger. And these are warfighting things.

1846
01:39:24,760 --> 01:39:26,240
Speaker 8: You're going to have to use them as soon as

1847
01:39:26,240 --> 01:39:30,160
Speaker 8: a war starts, otherwise they'll get destroyed. So there's a

1848
01:39:30,280 --> 01:39:32,599
Speaker 8: deal that could be made that pretty quickly that would

1849
01:39:32,640 --> 01:39:36,840
Speaker 8: bring down about four hundred warheads from both sides. And

1850
01:39:37,479 --> 01:39:40,639
Speaker 8: then it's an interesting thing if you have three countries competing,

1851
01:39:41,880 --> 01:39:44,160
Speaker 8: and I think it's a good idea for us to

1852
01:39:45,439 --> 01:39:49,439
Speaker 8: try to decouple Russia and Moscow, Russia and China as

1853
01:39:49,479 --> 01:39:52,200
Speaker 8: best we can. Then you have a situation where if

1854
01:39:52,240 --> 01:39:55,080
Speaker 8: I take away one warhead and the deal is that

1855
01:39:55,640 --> 01:39:59,360
Speaker 8: each of China and Russia takes away a warhead, that's

1856
01:39:59,360 --> 01:40:01,519
Speaker 8: a pretty good deal. I've got two less facing me

1857
01:40:01,680 --> 01:40:04,360
Speaker 8: for one that I've got less that I've shot off.

1858
01:40:04,880 --> 01:40:08,040
Speaker 8: So I think there's a possibility if you really work

1859
01:40:08,160 --> 01:40:11,360
Speaker 8: on it, and if you look at the sort of

1860
01:40:11,479 --> 01:40:14,439
Speaker 8: root cause problem of these missile defenses that they worry

1861
01:40:14,560 --> 01:40:19,320
Speaker 8: might work and we worry won't work, there's a way

1862
01:40:19,360 --> 01:40:21,799
Speaker 8: to get down to much lower numbers with both sides.

1863
01:40:22,280 --> 01:40:26,360
Speaker 4: And let's talk about China because and I Ran and

1864
01:40:26,439 --> 01:40:29,240
Speaker 4: I were just discussing how we could look back one

1865
01:40:29,280 --> 01:40:31,400
Speaker 4: hundred years from now and as gross as the conflict

1866
01:40:31,439 --> 01:40:35,000
Speaker 4: of interest between Elon Musk Tesla and the Chinese government

1867
01:40:35,400 --> 01:40:39,800
Speaker 4: looks right now and could bear some really toxic fruit,

1868
01:40:40,280 --> 01:40:42,160
Speaker 4: it's possible that you look back one hundred years from

1869
01:40:42,160 --> 01:40:45,360
Speaker 4: now and say this was a huge contributor to diffusing

1870
01:40:45,600 --> 01:40:50,800
Speaker 4: tensions and spared conflict and was helpful and negotiating with

1871
01:40:50,880 --> 01:40:53,240
Speaker 4: the Chinese government. So talk a little bit about why

1872
01:40:53,240 --> 01:40:56,000
Speaker 4: you see this as an especially right moment when it

1873
01:40:56,080 --> 01:40:58,760
Speaker 4: comes to China as well. Well.

1874
01:40:58,840 --> 01:41:01,760
Speaker 8: I think the the story is China is just now

1875
01:41:01,920 --> 01:41:06,160
Speaker 8: doing a build up. If we don't do a build up,

1876
01:41:06,280 --> 01:41:09,439
Speaker 8: it'll save us about a trillion dollars, which is a

1877
01:41:09,560 --> 01:41:13,439
Speaker 8: noticeable amount of money and part of Donald Trump's goals,

1878
01:41:14,560 --> 01:41:16,080
Speaker 8: And it would also save them a lot of them.

1879
01:41:16,240 --> 01:41:20,240
Speaker 5: Did you hear that Elon Musk one trillion dollars here?

1880
01:41:20,320 --> 01:41:21,960
Speaker 5: It is so you can go after medicate all you want.

1881
01:41:21,960 --> 01:41:23,320
Speaker 5: You're not gonna find a trillion dollars.

1882
01:41:23,600 --> 01:41:27,000
Speaker 1: Go ahead, So if you.

1883
01:41:27,040 --> 01:41:31,400
Speaker 8: Can if you can cut back this huge expansion in

1884
01:41:31,439 --> 01:41:34,719
Speaker 8: particularly these missiles I was telling you about. We're planning

1885
01:41:34,800 --> 01:41:38,360
Speaker 8: on renewing all of them, were basically replacing all of

1886
01:41:38,400 --> 01:41:42,720
Speaker 8: them and their control structures and everything. If you could,

1887
01:41:42,880 --> 01:41:47,160
Speaker 8: if you could back down on that stuff, it would

1888
01:41:47,400 --> 01:41:49,120
Speaker 8: reduce the tensions with China.

1889
01:41:49,760 --> 01:41:49,920
Speaker 4: Now.

1890
01:41:50,040 --> 01:41:52,760
Speaker 8: I think you have to be worried about Taiwan, of course,

1891
01:41:52,840 --> 01:41:56,599
Speaker 8: so you need to have ships that can help defend Taiwan.

1892
01:41:57,640 --> 01:42:00,400
Speaker 8: But you could put this back on the track that

1893
01:42:00,479 --> 01:42:02,600
Speaker 8: we were on before. You know, it seems to me

1894
01:42:02,640 --> 01:42:04,599
Speaker 8: a lot of the inflation we've had is because we're

1895
01:42:04,640 --> 01:42:08,800
Speaker 8: not getting the achieved things from China. So there there's

1896
01:42:08,840 --> 01:42:12,599
Speaker 8: a there's a complicated situation there that could be diffused.

1897
01:42:12,680 --> 01:42:14,840
Speaker 8: I think one thing we have to recognize is their

1898
01:42:14,880 --> 01:42:17,720
Speaker 8: economy is about the same size as ours, and so

1899
01:42:18,400 --> 01:42:20,679
Speaker 8: sort of trying to make them be a third class

1900
01:42:20,800 --> 01:42:24,000
Speaker 8: a second class player is not not practical.

1901
01:42:24,479 --> 01:42:24,640
Speaker 7: You know.

1902
01:42:25,479 --> 01:42:26,120
Speaker 1: It's interesting.

1903
01:42:26,920 --> 01:42:29,479
Speaker 5: One of the reasons that is taken as kind of

1904
01:42:29,520 --> 01:42:34,280
Speaker 5: the conventional wisdom for why the Soviet Union imploded was

1905
01:42:34,360 --> 01:42:38,559
Speaker 5: that they tried to keep up this arms race with us,

1906
01:42:39,400 --> 01:42:42,360
Speaker 5: and because we had a bigger and faster growing economy.

1907
01:42:42,439 --> 01:42:47,799
Speaker 5: They they increasingly ate into you know, their domestic capacity

1908
01:42:47,960 --> 01:42:52,320
Speaker 5: to grow their economy and distribute the the goodies to

1909
01:42:53,320 --> 01:42:58,160
Speaker 5: the Soviet people and helped lead to collapse. You know,

1910
01:42:58,280 --> 01:43:02,519
Speaker 5: if the Chinese economy is growing, you know, significantly faster

1911
01:43:02,640 --> 01:43:07,759
Speaker 5: than ours, and we are spending a trillion plus dollars putting,

1912
01:43:08,479 --> 01:43:10,280
Speaker 5: you know, building things that we hope we're never going

1913
01:43:10,360 --> 01:43:14,280
Speaker 5: to use that at best, building things that we never use.

1914
01:43:14,479 --> 01:43:17,919
Speaker 5: At worst, building building things that we use and destroy ourselves.

1915
01:43:18,320 --> 01:43:20,280
Speaker 5: So just you know, siphoning money out of the economy

1916
01:43:20,479 --> 01:43:24,080
Speaker 5: and it going to nothing other than you know, boosting

1917
01:43:24,160 --> 01:43:28,599
Speaker 5: kind of Northern Virginia real estate prices. Do we face

1918
01:43:28,640 --> 01:43:30,400
Speaker 5: some of the same risk as the Soviet Union that

1919
01:43:30,600 --> 01:43:34,840
Speaker 5: that in this blind competition with China, If they grow

1920
01:43:34,920 --> 01:43:38,799
Speaker 5: faster than us and we continue to spend a trillion

1921
01:43:39,600 --> 01:43:45,840
Speaker 5: dollars on this nuclear capacity, could that end up kind

1922
01:43:45,840 --> 01:43:46,640
Speaker 5: of bankrupting us?

1923
01:43:48,880 --> 01:43:51,439
Speaker 8: Well, I don't think we're in quite the situation of

1924
01:43:51,520 --> 01:43:55,439
Speaker 8: course that Russia was in the you know, people were

1925
01:43:55,479 --> 01:43:59,519
Speaker 8: saying they were spending eight percent of their GDP on defense.

1926
01:43:59,680 --> 01:44:02,599
Speaker 8: It was crazy. But but of course they weren't spending

1927
01:44:02,720 --> 01:44:03,360
Speaker 8: much more than we.

1928
01:44:04,000 --> 01:44:07,800
Speaker 1: Right at we're at what we're at? Five percent? I

1929
01:44:07,840 --> 01:44:10,640
Speaker 1: don't know, people could google that. It's a lot though, right,

1930
01:44:10,720 --> 01:44:13,400
Speaker 1: I mean, if we have a fourteen to fifteen what's.

1931
01:44:13,240 --> 01:44:16,280
Speaker 5: Our GDP, something like fifteen trillion, we're up to eighteen now,

1932
01:44:17,479 --> 01:44:19,120
Speaker 5: and he's going to google this chicking.

1933
01:44:19,000 --> 01:44:21,400
Speaker 8: Out, yeah, and it's the better and our defense budget

1934
01:44:21,479 --> 01:44:22,120
Speaker 8: is the better part of.

1935
01:44:22,120 --> 01:44:23,920
Speaker 4: A trillion though twenty seven trillion.

1936
01:44:24,000 --> 01:44:27,160
Speaker 5: Oh, we're at twenty seven trillion now, Okay, so one

1937
01:44:29,200 --> 01:44:31,640
Speaker 5: percent anyway, got so?

1938
01:44:31,920 --> 01:44:34,200
Speaker 8: So I mean we're not in the situation that we

1939
01:44:34,360 --> 01:44:39,160
Speaker 8: have a non functioning economy and we're we've got a

1940
01:44:39,240 --> 01:44:42,400
Speaker 8: population that's a third the size of the other guy. Oh,

1941
01:44:42,439 --> 01:44:44,560
Speaker 8: I guess you know, actually our population is quite a

1942
01:44:44,600 --> 01:44:49,400
Speaker 8: bit lower our but our GDP is way higher than Russias.

1943
01:44:50,160 --> 01:44:52,760
Speaker 8: So people used to say Russia is spending much more

1944
01:44:52,920 --> 01:44:56,120
Speaker 8: fraction of their economy on weapons, but in fact they were,

1945
01:44:56,400 --> 01:44:59,080
Speaker 8: you know, that a much smaller economy. So I don't

1946
01:44:59,240 --> 01:45:02,360
Speaker 8: quite see, you know, maybe if you talk one hundred years,

1947
01:45:02,520 --> 01:45:04,439
Speaker 8: it's a different story. And I don't see in the

1948
01:45:04,520 --> 01:45:09,479
Speaker 8: next decade or two that will get bankrupted. It's just

1949
01:45:09,640 --> 01:45:13,519
Speaker 8: that the national debt is a big problem and it's

1950
01:45:13,760 --> 01:45:15,960
Speaker 8: certainly going to hurt us to spend this money.

1951
01:45:16,160 --> 01:45:18,160
Speaker 4: Q four, by the way, has our GDP at twenty

1952
01:45:18,320 --> 01:45:19,240
Speaker 4: nine trillion.

1953
01:45:19,640 --> 01:45:21,240
Speaker 1: Okay, well there we go. I'll be yeah.

1954
01:45:21,240 --> 01:45:22,800
Speaker 5: I don't mean the next ten years. You know, China

1955
01:45:22,880 --> 01:45:27,160
Speaker 5: thinks in terms of fifteen one hundred years. They're happy

1956
01:45:27,200 --> 01:45:27,840
Speaker 5: to wait us out.

1957
01:45:28,000 --> 01:45:32,240
Speaker 8: Oh yeah, Well, certainly you want to get this path.

1958
01:45:32,400 --> 01:45:35,000
Speaker 8: You want to get this on a path towards eventually

1959
01:45:35,040 --> 01:45:40,960
Speaker 8: eliminating nuclear weapons. Ronald Reagan even said that, so you

1960
01:45:41,360 --> 01:45:44,679
Speaker 8: want to get to that place, and going up isn't

1961
01:45:44,760 --> 01:45:47,559
Speaker 8: necessarily the right way to get to go to eventually

1962
01:45:47,600 --> 01:45:48,080
Speaker 8: come down.

1963
01:45:48,560 --> 01:45:48,760
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1964
01:45:48,760 --> 01:45:51,120
Speaker 5: And the last point, I think the thing that makes

1965
01:45:51,200 --> 01:45:54,840
Speaker 5: your case more plausible is that you pointed out in

1966
01:45:54,880 --> 01:45:58,439
Speaker 5: your piece. Donald Trump hasn't cared about a whole lot

1967
01:45:58,560 --> 01:46:01,360
Speaker 5: consistently throughout his life. But one of the things he

1968
01:46:01,520 --> 01:46:05,400
Speaker 5: has cared about curiously has been nuclear war.

1969
01:46:05,479 --> 01:46:07,160
Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit about that?

1970
01:46:08,840 --> 01:46:13,560
Speaker 8: Well, so Rag, I shouldn't say Reagan. It's true of

1971
01:46:13,640 --> 01:46:18,080
Speaker 8: Reagan too in a way, but Donald Trump has spoken

1972
01:46:18,840 --> 01:46:24,320
Speaker 8: from his first apparently it was a Playboy interview where else. Yeah, well,

1973
01:46:24,400 --> 01:46:28,360
Speaker 8: you know, they talked about other things too, but he

1974
01:46:28,840 --> 01:46:34,599
Speaker 8: focused on the fact that the nuclear situation is really

1975
01:46:34,680 --> 01:46:37,360
Speaker 8: really dangerous, and he used the metaphor that it's like

1976
01:46:37,479 --> 01:46:40,599
Speaker 8: being ignorant of the fact that you could get sick,

1977
01:46:41,920 --> 01:46:43,960
Speaker 8: and so you don't even pay any attention to your

1978
01:46:44,000 --> 01:46:46,800
Speaker 8: health and then you get sick and you're surprised by it.

1979
01:46:47,920 --> 01:46:51,880
Speaker 8: You shouldn't be in that situation with nuclear weapons, and

1980
01:46:52,960 --> 01:46:56,200
Speaker 8: he has repeated that. It's clear that it's something that

1981
01:46:56,320 --> 01:46:58,280
Speaker 8: is a high priority to him, and it is certainly

1982
01:46:58,320 --> 01:47:01,280
Speaker 8: a high priority to the Nobel commit So if they could,

1983
01:47:01,560 --> 01:47:05,960
Speaker 8: if there's going to have to be some sweet talking

1984
01:47:06,080 --> 01:47:09,400
Speaker 8: to get China to the table, clearly they have to

1985
01:47:09,439 --> 01:47:13,120
Speaker 8: be brought to the table as an equal because they

1986
01:47:13,200 --> 01:47:15,519
Speaker 8: have the capability to build up to being an equal

1987
01:47:16,320 --> 01:47:18,120
Speaker 8: and they're sort of on that path, and they have

1988
01:47:18,160 --> 01:47:21,680
Speaker 8: an economy that's like ours, not like Russias. So I

1989
01:47:21,920 --> 01:47:24,880
Speaker 8: think you need you need to have a situation where

1990
01:47:25,320 --> 01:47:27,640
Speaker 8: all three of you are kind of sitting on the

1991
01:47:27,680 --> 01:47:30,040
Speaker 8: same side of the table trying to solve this problem

1992
01:47:30,360 --> 01:47:33,840
Speaker 8: that you're all threatening each other, that that's going to

1993
01:47:33,920 --> 01:47:36,360
Speaker 8: then put you on this path, so that out in

1994
01:47:36,439 --> 01:47:39,240
Speaker 8: the long term, frankly, out in the long term, there

1995
01:47:39,320 --> 01:47:42,719
Speaker 8: is a long term, right, Yeah, we use all these weapons.

1996
01:47:42,760 --> 01:47:44,720
Speaker 8: There is no long term. There's one hundred years from

1997
01:47:44,760 --> 01:47:47,280
Speaker 8: now where there's any civilizations to speak of.

1998
01:47:47,439 --> 01:47:50,680
Speaker 5: Left right, So Israel, Palestine and Iran deal in the

1999
01:47:50,800 --> 01:47:52,679
Speaker 5: Ukraine War and then World Peace.

2000
01:47:53,200 --> 01:47:54,360
Speaker 1: I'd give them those nobels.

2001
01:47:54,760 --> 01:47:55,080
Speaker 4: There you go.

2002
01:47:56,280 --> 01:47:58,080
Speaker 8: They may be a shamed that they didn't give Ronald

2003
01:47:58,120 --> 01:47:59,840
Speaker 8: Reagan the Nobel Prize when they gave it a go

2004
01:48:00,080 --> 01:48:01,920
Speaker 8: the job, So maybe they'll pay attention.

2005
01:48:02,160 --> 01:48:02,920
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right.

2006
01:48:03,040 --> 01:48:06,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it will be like a makeup call from the reps.

2007
01:48:07,400 --> 01:48:10,000
Speaker 4: Thank you so much, professor. This is fascinating. We really

2008
01:48:10,000 --> 01:48:10,840
Speaker 4: appreciate you coming on.

2009
01:48:11,880 --> 01:48:12,040
Speaker 10: Right.

2010
01:48:12,360 --> 01:48:13,439
Speaker 8: I enjoyed it very much.

2011
01:48:13,760 --> 01:48:15,000
Speaker 1: Well, that's fascinating to talk through.

2012
01:48:15,040 --> 01:48:18,400
Speaker 5: And I hope that you know, Trump does have, even

2013
01:48:18,400 --> 01:48:21,960
Speaker 5: though he pretends he doesn't, an interest in validation from

2014
01:48:22,000 --> 01:48:25,920
Speaker 5: those types of people. And absolutely somebody can float in

2015
01:48:25,960 --> 01:48:29,960
Speaker 5: front of him that look, these accolades are available to

2016
01:48:30,040 --> 01:48:33,639
Speaker 5: you if you do these things. I think he already

2017
01:48:33,720 --> 01:48:38,240
Speaker 5: leans in that direction. He loves you know, the art

2018
01:48:38,280 --> 01:48:42,000
Speaker 5: of the deal. What what what bigger deal you get

2019
01:48:42,040 --> 01:48:49,920
Speaker 5: than ending you know, the ceasefire, Ukraine Iran deal and

2020
01:48:50,000 --> 01:48:52,439
Speaker 5: then a nuclear treaty between Russia China and the US.

2021
01:48:52,479 --> 01:48:54,200
Speaker 1: I mean, somebody should do it. He's not Trump.

2022
01:48:54,479 --> 01:48:56,640
Speaker 4: And he's also so completely right about Reagan. Something that

2023
01:48:56,680 --> 01:48:59,600
Speaker 4: gets completely forgotten about Reagan is that he disrupted the

2024
01:48:59,640 --> 01:49:01,880
Speaker 4: Cold War inertia that we were in the nineteen eighties,

2025
01:49:02,000 --> 01:49:04,280
Speaker 4: although I think rhetorically it was a little bit different,

2026
01:49:04,320 --> 01:49:07,639
Speaker 4: but just by his negotiations back channel, if you read

2027
01:49:07,680 --> 01:49:12,920
Speaker 4: his diary with Soviets, he immediately was shocked into realizing

2028
01:49:12,960 --> 01:49:16,400
Speaker 4: how dire the situation was, how dramatic the situation was,

2029
01:49:16,600 --> 01:49:20,559
Speaker 4: and started to talk less like a Cold warrior from

2030
01:49:20,640 --> 01:49:24,000
Speaker 4: the nineteen sixties and started to make inroads. And I

2031
01:49:24,080 --> 01:49:27,040
Speaker 4: think Trump, in an interesting way, is like that level

2032
01:49:27,120 --> 01:49:31,920
Speaker 4: of unorthodox on a bigger scale. He doesn't feel beholden

2033
01:49:31,960 --> 01:49:34,320
Speaker 4: to the Cold War inertia. He never has. He doesn't

2034
01:49:34,760 --> 01:49:38,080
Speaker 4: play by those rules. He actually despises that status quo.

2035
01:49:38,280 --> 01:49:40,720
Speaker 4: So there's some real potential here. It just speaks to

2036
01:49:40,920 --> 01:49:45,800
Speaker 4: how easily we lose sight of nuclear politics that this

2037
01:49:45,920 --> 01:49:48,599
Speaker 4: gets tossed to the side. And this isn't a bigger conversation.

2038
01:49:49,240 --> 01:49:51,800
Speaker 5: And speaking of which, and we didn't get yes a

2039
01:49:51,960 --> 01:49:53,280
Speaker 5: chance to talk about this in the show where there

2040
01:49:53,320 --> 01:49:57,839
Speaker 5: was interesting news yesterday from the Biden administration, which announced

2041
01:49:57,960 --> 01:50:02,439
Speaker 5: that it was taking Cuba off of the State Sponsor

2042
01:50:02,600 --> 01:50:06,760
Speaker 5: of Terrorism list. We've covered this before, and it'll be

2043
01:50:06,760 --> 01:50:09,040
Speaker 5: interesting to see how the Trump administration responds to this.

2044
01:50:10,120 --> 01:50:12,120
Speaker 1: Obama normalized relations with Cuba.

2045
01:50:13,720 --> 01:50:16,400
Speaker 5: Trump then came in at the very end of his

2046
01:50:16,560 --> 01:50:19,519
Speaker 5: term put Cuba on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list,

2047
01:50:19,960 --> 01:50:23,280
Speaker 5: which is a more effective and more devious kind of embargo,

2048
01:50:23,520 --> 01:50:28,120
Speaker 5: because what it does is it says that what it

2049
01:50:28,160 --> 01:50:30,960
Speaker 5: does is it blocks companies from around the world from

2050
01:50:31,040 --> 01:50:34,280
Speaker 5: doing any business with Cuban companies. It's really insidious, and

2051
01:50:34,320 --> 01:50:35,280
Speaker 5: the US will say.

2052
01:50:35,439 --> 01:50:38,400
Speaker 1: Not that the fully happens, but yeah, although so, we

2053
01:50:38,479 --> 01:50:38,600
Speaker 1: have a.

2054
01:50:38,760 --> 01:50:41,559
Speaker 5: Great piece I can put it in the note down

2055
01:50:41,600 --> 01:50:44,760
Speaker 5: here from Ed Augustine, a reporter who writes for US

2056
01:50:44,920 --> 01:50:47,400
Speaker 5: from down in Havana, who've talked to a bunch of

2057
01:50:47,479 --> 01:50:50,360
Speaker 5: Cuban businesses right after they got put on that list.

2058
01:50:50,880 --> 01:50:55,880
Speaker 5: European banks, European companies just stopped. They'd say, look, the

2059
01:50:56,040 --> 01:50:56,799
Speaker 5: US says.

2060
01:50:56,680 --> 01:50:57,400
Speaker 1: Maybe we can do this.

2061
01:50:57,520 --> 01:51:00,160
Speaker 5: Our lawyers aren't sure. It's just you're not a big

2062
01:51:00,240 --> 01:51:02,960
Speaker 5: enough market. It's just easier for us to say, you

2063
01:51:03,000 --> 01:51:05,880
Speaker 5: know what, we don't do business in Cuba anymore, and

2064
01:51:06,000 --> 01:51:09,960
Speaker 5: if you're an island that hurts. It was expected, and

2065
01:51:10,240 --> 01:51:14,600
Speaker 5: Biden was pressured to and Biden campaign saying that he

2066
01:51:14,640 --> 01:51:18,400
Speaker 5: thought what Trump did was wrong. Biden was expected to

2067
01:51:18,439 --> 01:51:20,040
Speaker 5: come in and take Cuba off the state sponsor of

2068
01:51:20,160 --> 01:51:24,479
Speaker 5: Terrorism list immediately. Instead, he did it yesterday, and he

2069
01:51:24,560 --> 01:51:27,680
Speaker 5: did it after something like a third of the population

2070
01:51:28,720 --> 01:51:32,400
Speaker 5: has left Cuba. Enormous numbers of those, by the way,

2071
01:51:32,880 --> 01:51:37,880
Speaker 5: flew to Nicaragua then came up to the US border.

2072
01:51:38,320 --> 01:51:40,040
Speaker 1: Chris sparking, is this migration crisis.

2073
01:51:40,280 --> 01:51:43,639
Speaker 5: We were talking to somebody in Cuba a couple months

2074
01:51:43,640 --> 01:51:46,280
Speaker 5: ago who she's in her twenties, and she said, I

2075
01:51:46,360 --> 01:51:48,920
Speaker 5: don't have a single friend left in Cuba. They have

2076
01:51:49,160 --> 01:51:53,599
Speaker 5: all left, and it was because Biden took four years

2077
01:51:53,680 --> 01:51:59,439
Speaker 5: to take them off of this list. Why people people

2078
01:51:59,479 --> 01:52:03,960
Speaker 5: have lost significant amounts of weight, like the like absolute misery,

2079
01:52:04,960 --> 01:52:09,160
Speaker 5: you know, island wide blackouts like what he put people

2080
01:52:09,240 --> 01:52:12,080
Speaker 5: on Cuba through for four years to then at the

2081
01:52:12,240 --> 01:52:16,040
Speaker 5: very end, so in never mind, it's just.

2082
01:52:17,600 --> 01:52:18,200
Speaker 1: Infuriating.

2083
01:52:18,720 --> 01:52:21,320
Speaker 4: So you will see how Trump panels the Secretary of

2084
01:52:21,320 --> 01:52:24,760
Speaker 4: Saint Marco Rubio obviously as hardcore. Yes, because to the

2085
01:52:24,800 --> 01:52:26,839
Speaker 4: point that Trump is stuck in the Cold War inertia.

2086
01:52:26,920 --> 01:52:32,040
Speaker 4: It's on issues that his his sort of people in

2087
01:52:32,840 --> 01:52:37,120
Speaker 4: the cabinet and even middle range folks dictate the policy.

2088
01:52:37,439 --> 01:52:40,439
Speaker 4: Trump sort of exports that our outsources like, it's not

2089
01:52:40,560 --> 01:52:44,360
Speaker 4: his top concern, so he lets little Marco handle Venezuela

2090
01:52:44,680 --> 01:52:46,719
Speaker 4: Cuba in Central America.

2091
01:52:46,880 --> 01:52:47,800
Speaker 1: You'll see if he does or not.

2092
01:52:48,000 --> 01:52:48,200
Speaker 8: Yeah.

2093
01:52:48,439 --> 01:52:50,760
Speaker 4: Right, But to the point that Professor Goldsen is making,

2094
01:52:51,360 --> 01:52:53,439
Speaker 4: there's an argument to be made of Donald Trump that

2095
01:52:53,800 --> 01:52:59,080
Speaker 4: breaking that pattern could it could actually really help his image,

2096
01:52:59,640 --> 01:53:02,840
Speaker 4: historic player's legacy, I guess going forward, So we'll see.

2097
01:53:02,960 --> 01:53:04,439
Speaker 5: But yeah, but the fact that hit the very end

2098
01:53:04,479 --> 01:53:07,040
Speaker 5: of his term, he threw Cuba too the bus last

2099
01:53:07,080 --> 01:53:09,280
Speaker 5: time doesn't really bode well this time.

2100
01:53:09,560 --> 01:53:09,760
Speaker 8: Yeah.

2101
01:53:09,840 --> 01:53:12,439
Speaker 5: The fact that he named Marco Rubio secretary's day doesn't

2102
01:53:12,560 --> 01:53:13,280
Speaker 5: bode well either.

2103
01:53:14,160 --> 01:53:15,040
Speaker 1: Those we'll see.

2104
01:53:15,560 --> 01:53:18,280
Speaker 4: Reporting right now. Marco Rubi is literally about to begin

2105
01:53:18,360 --> 01:53:21,080
Speaker 4: his confirmation hearing as we are recording this, and the

2106
01:53:21,160 --> 01:53:23,160
Speaker 4: report is that he is coming out swinging against the

2107
01:53:23,200 --> 01:53:24,400
Speaker 4: foreign policy consensus.

2108
01:53:24,479 --> 01:53:25,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't after the globalists.

2109
01:53:26,040 --> 01:53:28,519
Speaker 4: And it sounds like it's at least rhetorically a very

2110
01:53:28,600 --> 01:53:29,839
Speaker 4: populist opening statement.

2111
01:53:30,000 --> 01:53:31,960
Speaker 1: And that again Brake part had it last night. I

2112
01:53:32,000 --> 01:53:32,840
Speaker 1: think I saw you sharing it.

2113
01:53:32,960 --> 01:53:34,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right, Mappa Will got it. So it doesn't

2114
01:53:34,840 --> 01:53:37,720
Speaker 4: mean that's going to translate into policy, but it's an

2115
01:53:37,760 --> 01:53:40,640
Speaker 4: interesting start, so we'll certainly be following it throughout the

2116
01:53:41,400 --> 01:53:44,000
Speaker 4: entire ride. We'll be here. You can go to Breakingpoints

2117
01:53:44,040 --> 01:53:46,000
Speaker 4: dot com for a premium subscription if you want to

2118
01:53:46,360 --> 01:53:48,360
Speaker 4: be here for the ride with us, and make sure

2119
01:53:48,400 --> 01:53:50,200
Speaker 4: if you If you can't, if you can't subscribe, make

2120
01:53:50,200 --> 01:53:53,400
Speaker 4: sure to like and subscribe here. If you can't subscribe premium,

2121
01:53:53,720 --> 01:53:55,320
Speaker 4: make sure to like and subscribe here on the channel.

2122
01:53:55,479 --> 01:53:58,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, do that sounds great? All right, see y'all.

2123
01:54:01,960 --> 01:54:02,920
Speaker 14: Only few