WEBVTT - Day One from Schwab Impact in Philadelphia

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's actually though about Kibe, Jim King, did you know that?

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<v Speaker 3>I did not know that?

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<v Speaker 2>All right, we'll talk about that. We know that today.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a gift go to Schwab because this is where

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<v Speaker 2>we find ourselves at Impact twenty twenty three. There's so

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<v Speaker 2>much going on, a good reason why investors are made

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<v Speaker 2>that something hasn't broken in the economy yet. Because the

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<v Speaker 2>last time US government bond yields climb so far, so fast,

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<v Speaker 2>the nation plunged into back to back recessions. So that

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<v Speaker 2>is part of kind of our backdrop. Let's get to

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<v Speaker 2>it though. We are here at Philadelphia, at the Philadelphia

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<v Speaker 2>Convention Center, at Schwab Impact twenty twenty three and with

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<v Speaker 2>us as Rick Worcester, he's president of Charles Schwab. I

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<v Speaker 2>want to say thank you for joining us, but thank

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<v Speaker 2>you for having us.

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<v Speaker 4>We thank you for having me on.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so delightful to be here it's great to have

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<v Speaker 2>you here in a day where I kind of laugh

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<v Speaker 2>with you. It's a shame nothing is going on, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's a really interesting environment geopolitically. Obviously we're you know,

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<v Speaker 2>front and center watching what's going on around the world,

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<v Speaker 2>but also within the investment environment, how do you make

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<v Speaker 2>sense you and your team back at schwab about kind

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<v Speaker 2>of how to prioritize what investors are going to care

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<v Speaker 2>most about and what's going to impact your world specifically.

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<v Speaker 5>Sure, well, Sutinly, when we think about the global events,

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<v Speaker 5>the first thing I think about is the human suffering

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<v Speaker 5>and the difficulties that a lot of people have had

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<v Speaker 5>to endure recently. From a market standpoint, we want that

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<v Speaker 5>volatility can be challenging to clients, and one of the

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<v Speaker 5>things that we say in an environment like this is

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<v Speaker 5>seek out an advisor. And we're sitting here, of course,

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<v Speaker 5>at our thirty third annual Impact Conference for advisors, and

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<v Speaker 5>they help clients thrive through environments like this. So it's

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<v Speaker 5>a challenging environment for the world. Certainly, it creates uncertainty

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<v Speaker 5>and some volatility, but I think advisors can help a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of our clients through periods like this.

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<v Speaker 3>What are you hearing from advisors right now about the

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<v Speaker 3>questions that their clients have. I mean, we're not only

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<v Speaker 3>in a challenging world for financial markets, but we're in

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<v Speaker 3>a challenging world for advisors. They're robo advisors. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>Schwab has its own robo advisor, its rob intelligence portfolio.

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<v Speaker 3>What are you hearing from these people whose businesses are

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<v Speaker 3>being challenged right now?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the thing I would say about the advisor market

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<v Speaker 5>is that there's a bull market for advice more and

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<v Speaker 5>more clients because of everything that's going on in the world,

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<v Speaker 5>because of what's happening in markets, because people are trying

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<v Speaker 5>to integrate markets into taxes and their trusts or states

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<v Speaker 5>passing wealth along.

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<v Speaker 4>There is a bull market for help and guidance.

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<v Speaker 5>And so it's a market in which advisors are thriving

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<v Speaker 5>and the area is really growing.

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<v Speaker 2>Rick, what's the most interesting demographic in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>investing public right now for you guys, Well, to me.

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<v Speaker 5>It's got to be the base boomers. The baby boomers

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<v Speaker 5>have amassed a lot of wealth and more and more

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<v Speaker 5>retiring every day, and they want that help and guidance

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<v Speaker 5>to help them get through retirement and navigate all the

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<v Speaker 5>things in front of them. So to me, that's the

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<v Speaker 5>most interesting demographic. But at SCHWAB, we want to meet

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<v Speaker 5>the needs of every demographic, whether it's a young investor,

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<v Speaker 5>a baby boomer. We need to be exceptional at meeting

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<v Speaker 5>the needs of all of those different demographics.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's kind of interesting, right for like a younger investor.

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<v Speaker 2>We talk a lot about. We had a guest on

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<v Speaker 2>this past week of just you know, trying to assess

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<v Speaker 2>are we in a recession? And you know, while technically

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<v Speaker 2>the numbers that we've got growth in the US, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>strong consumer spending numbers, still, retail sales.

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<v Speaker 3>Numbers, employment is strong.

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<v Speaker 2>Employment is strong. Having said that, she said, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm coming from Wisconsin again, somebody who manages money. She said, Yep,

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<v Speaker 2>they're working, but folks can't buy a home because they

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<v Speaker 2>can't afford it with the mortgage rates. They've got one

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<v Speaker 2>thousand dollars a month car payments, So they in essence

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<v Speaker 2>feel like it's a recession for them. So I'm just

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<v Speaker 2>curious from your people who want to invest with you

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<v Speaker 2>guys and work on your platforms, you know, what is

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<v Speaker 2>it that they're doing looking to save money concerned principle,

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<v Speaker 2>or be more aggressive in this environment because they see

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<v Speaker 2>some opportunities amid the volatility.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, first, the first part of the question, there's no

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<v Speaker 5>question this environment has been difficult for investors and difficult

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<v Speaker 5>for people trying to live in the world. There's been

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of inflation the uh you know, the FED

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<v Speaker 5>has raised interest rates dramatically and quickly, but that was

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<v Speaker 5>after letting inflation run a little bit, and so it

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<v Speaker 5>has squeezed individuals. At the same time, markets are not

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<v Speaker 5>that far away, particularly the S and P or the

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<v Speaker 5>NASTAC not far away from all time highs. So there

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<v Speaker 5>is a lot of wealth being created along the way.

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<v Speaker 5>And from our perspective, we're here to solve to serve

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<v Speaker 5>all investors. Our goal is to help clients navigate their

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<v Speaker 5>financial life, to make them better off and help them

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<v Speaker 5>get to where they want to be.

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<v Speaker 2>But do they want to be more conservative in this invironment? Like,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just curious in an environment where we talk. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>a money market pays you, you know what everybody keeps.

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<v Speaker 3>Saying more than five percent?

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<v Speaker 2>Why not put it there right without the risk. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>just curious what you're seeing in terms of those trends.

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<v Speaker 5>I would say that the call volumes on our fixed

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<v Speaker 5>income line have gone up ten times what they were

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<v Speaker 5>about eighteen months ago. So there's no question that there's

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of interest in yield right now. And why

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<v Speaker 5>not you get a two and a half percent real

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<v Speaker 5>yield on the twenty year now on I think you

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<v Speaker 5>have to go back quite a while before that was

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<v Speaker 5>the case.

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<v Speaker 3>Kind of folts perfectly into my next question, which is

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<v Speaker 3>about the business and about cash in the business. Schwab

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<v Speaker 3>recently reported earnings deposits down twenty eight percent in the

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<v Speaker 3>third quarter, was better than analysts forecast, still though a

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<v Speaker 3>drop of more than two hundred and eighty four billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>How much money do you see staying in the schwap

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<v Speaker 3>ecosystem right now, even if you know cash sleep is occurring,

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<v Speaker 3>but people can get you know, more than five percent

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<v Speaker 3>in money markets.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, what I would say is we want clients to

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<v Speaker 5>do the right thing for them and their situation. We

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<v Speaker 5>bring all you know, the clients leave cash in their accounts,

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<v Speaker 5>We leave it there until we know what they want

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<v Speaker 5>to do with it, and so they make a decision

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<v Speaker 5>that they want more yield, they should go and do that.

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<v Speaker 5>So the money leaving our bank, it's staying at Schwab,

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<v Speaker 5>it's going and buying government bonds, or it's going into

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<v Speaker 5>a money market fund. But that money is staying at Schwab,

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<v Speaker 5>and it's going to places where it can earn a

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<v Speaker 5>higher yield.

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<v Speaker 3>Then why were deposits down so much if it's staying

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<v Speaker 3>at Schwab.

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<v Speaker 5>Because it's coming out of our bank and finding its

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<v Speaker 5>way into higher yielding money market funds or fixingcome investments.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's exactly what we would want for clients. It's

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<v Speaker 5>not the best thing for our profits, but we want

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<v Speaker 5>the best thing that's for our clients. And so that

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<v Speaker 5>money movement is healthy for our clients.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, banking key to revenue. Right, we know that right

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<v Speaker 2>from the last earnings report, is money still continuing to

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<v Speaker 2>come out of that unit?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, what I would say is that if you think

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<v Speaker 5>about what's happening clients are looking at. You know, if

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<v Speaker 5>you went back to when interest rates were quite low,

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<v Speaker 5>they would have a lot of cash in their portfolios

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<v Speaker 5>and they would say, there's no need to move this cash.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm just going to leave it here. It's going to

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<v Speaker 5>earn zero here, It's going to earn zer anywhere else.

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<v Speaker 5>As the FED has lifted interest rates and yields are

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<v Speaker 5>now more attractive, people have looked at their balances and said, well, gosh,

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<v Speaker 5>why would I leave it here earning earning less unless

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<v Speaker 5>they needed to transact or they know they're going to

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<v Speaker 5>spend it on something. But for the portion of their

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<v Speaker 5>cash that they know is longer term cash, they can

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<v Speaker 5>get better, they can get more yield somewhere else. So

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<v Speaker 5>it's moved. And I would just wrap up by saying

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<v Speaker 5>we think a lot of the movements occurred because that

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<v Speaker 5>yield's been high for a while, so people have made

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<v Speaker 5>that transition, and we're starting to see a strong deceleration

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<v Speaker 5>of the pace of cash realignment.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's still coming out, but at a slower pace,

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<v Speaker 2>much slower pace.

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<v Speaker 5>And in fact, last month was the first month where

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<v Speaker 5>in our bank sweep we saw a positive growth in

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<v Speaker 5>bank some more money coming into the bank than leaving

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<v Speaker 5>the bank for the first time in a while. So

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<v Speaker 5>from a business standpoint, that's positive. But again, what we

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<v Speaker 5>want is clients to find the right investment for them.

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<v Speaker 2>Does it make you nervous though? As we get ready

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<v Speaker 2>for a GDP report, that's backward looking. Mind you another

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<v Speaker 2>read on inflation that in terms of what that could

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<v Speaker 2>mean for monetary policy, we do think we're getting close

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<v Speaker 2>to our peeking rates. But nonetheless, whether again and if

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<v Speaker 2>we see signs of inflation, if we see more signs

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<v Speaker 2>of growth, whether or not that that means ultimately you're

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<v Speaker 2>going to see more money coming out because the money

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<v Speaker 2>markets just kind of get more and more attractive.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it could be we're back in one of these

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<v Speaker 5>cycles where where bad news is good news. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>I feel like we might be back in that because

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<v Speaker 5>good news may lead to the higher rate environment. That

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<v Speaker 5>could be you know, it could hurt the economy certainly.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So what about creating new products that help people

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<v Speaker 3>keep their cash at SCHWAB. I'm wondering, if there are

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<v Speaker 3>so many high yield accounts available at other financial institutions

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<v Speaker 3>right now, what are the conversations happening behind the scenes

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<v Speaker 3>about creating those sorts of products at Schwab.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, what I would say is, we have all kinds

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<v Speaker 5>of cash products for clients, and we're not having an

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<v Speaker 5>issue with cash leaving the firm. We've we've brought in

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<v Speaker 5>over two hundred billion dollars of net new assets to

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<v Speaker 5>the firm, and a lot of it has found its

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<v Speaker 5>way into fixed income or money funds. The issue is

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<v Speaker 5>just where they're saving it, but it's not leaving the firm.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think there's no better place and no broader

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<v Speaker 5>array of fixed income and money fund ones than we

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<v Speaker 5>have at Schwab. So that, certainly, we always want to

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<v Speaker 5>bring out new and relevant products, but we're doing a

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<v Speaker 5>really nice job today of keeping those clients here at Schwab.

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<v Speaker 2>Impacts the top line growth.

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<v Speaker 4>We've been happy when.

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<v Speaker 2>This five percent rate environment is over.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I don't have two and a half percent.

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<v Speaker 5>Really, I feel like, you know that's not a bad

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<v Speaker 5>deal for savers and investors.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to ask you about your tenures so far. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>you came in around twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. I'm just

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<v Speaker 2>thinking about kind of where the world was at that point.

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<v Speaker 2>Not too shabby, right, and then all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 2>we move into a FED starts to raise rates, the

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<v Speaker 2>pandemic hits. It's a whole other world, right, the FED

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<v Speaker 2>cuts dramatically, we have the economy, everything just shuts down,

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<v Speaker 2>and then we see markets bounce back in a big way.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, how do you think about kind of our

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<v Speaker 2>visibility going forward in terms of the market environment. Do

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<v Speaker 2>we really have a good grasp or is it hard

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<v Speaker 2>to considering that trajectory and trying to figure out kind

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<v Speaker 2>of what happens after a pandemic and all of the

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<v Speaker 2>stimulus and crazy activity that went on.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, we've certainly seen a lot in the last five

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<v Speaker 5>or six years, haven't we. Yeah, you know, a pandemic

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<v Speaker 5>timing was good, Yeah, all kinds of different market environments.

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<v Speaker 3>You know.

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<v Speaker 5>Our advice to clients at Schwab is to is to

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<v Speaker 5>come up with a plan, stick to that plan, and

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<v Speaker 5>if you need to help, seek the help of an

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<v Speaker 5>advisor who can help guide you through it.

0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:16.320
<v Speaker 4>But it's we believe it's.

0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:19.280
<v Speaker 5>Hard to time the markets and and outthink you know

0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:19.960
<v Speaker 5>what's going to happen.

0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:21.800
<v Speaker 4>Are we going to be in a recession? Not in recession?

0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.400
<v Speaker 5>Of course, we have an opinion on those things, but

0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:26.440
<v Speaker 5>we're not always right, and we want investors to stay

0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:28.240
<v Speaker 5>the course, have a plan, stick to it, and work

0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:29.920
<v Speaker 5>with an advisor if that makes sense for them.

0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.560
<v Speaker 3>What's your opinion on where we're going on the on

0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:33.120
<v Speaker 3>the markets?

0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.560
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean I think at some point monetary policy

0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:37.800
<v Speaker 5>has to lead to a more restrictive economy.

0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:41.160
<v Speaker 2>But US recession or soft landing.

0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:42.559
<v Speaker 5>I am not an economist. I'm not going to make

0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:44.960
<v Speaker 5>that call. But you know, listen to Liz Anne Saunders

0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:46.880
<v Speaker 5>or Jeff clientob they do a really nice job of

0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:49.840
<v Speaker 5>calling the markets and and and the economy.

0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:51.719
<v Speaker 2>As someone who manages though it is very part of

0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:53.760
<v Speaker 2>the c suite right here, who covers you know and

0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.760
<v Speaker 2>runs this company. What's top of mind for you guys,

0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.320
<v Speaker 2>whether it's employees, whether it's cost cutting, what is it

0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:00.520
<v Speaker 2>to me?

0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:04.679
<v Speaker 5>It's opportunity. We have so much opportunity to delight our

0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:07.000
<v Speaker 5>clients and make them better off in their financial life.

0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.360
<v Speaker 5>But what I worry about at night is are we

0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.280
<v Speaker 5>doing enough? And are we doing it fast enough? I

0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.120
<v Speaker 5>just think we are blessed to have thirty five million

0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:16.560
<v Speaker 5>clients that we serve on a daily basis, and I

0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:18.640
<v Speaker 5>want to make sure we do everything in our power

0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:20.080
<v Speaker 5>to make them as well off.

0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:20.520
<v Speaker 4>As they can be.

0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:24.000
<v Speaker 3>Can you talk a little bit about customer service? I

0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.800
<v Speaker 3>have full disclosure. I'm a Schwab client, so I've.

0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.000
<v Speaker 4>Experienced thank you for your business.

0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.840
<v Speaker 3>And one thing that is notable it's like to me,

0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.240
<v Speaker 3>it's like Carol, when we talk about American Express, you

0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:35.680
<v Speaker 3>call Schwab in the person answers, you call American Express

0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.560
<v Speaker 3>and a person answers. Can you talk about the investments

0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.640
<v Speaker 3>that you make in customer service so people have those

0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:42.280
<v Speaker 3>interactions just in the last minute that we have.

0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, client service is critical to us.

0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.640
<v Speaker 5>It's one of the things that really differentiates Schwab from

0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:51.079
<v Speaker 5>some of our Vermar competitors. We've answered the phone this year,

0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.679
<v Speaker 5>on average in less than thirty seconds. I can't get

0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:55.800
<v Speaker 5>anyone to pick up my phone call in thirty seconds,

0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 5>certainly not my teenage daughter, so we ext her.

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we make it.

0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.560
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's really important to us that we answer the phones,

0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:06.760
<v Speaker 5>that we're there for the clients and that we're delivering

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.559
<v Speaker 5>what they need. We are a client focused business. We

0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.720
<v Speaker 5>only succeed when our clients.

0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:13.800
<v Speaker 2>Succeed, So no worry about AI taking over.

0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.800
<v Speaker 5>Hey, it's going to be really helpful to all those

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.560
<v Speaker 5>people answering the phones. I think they're going to make

0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:19.640
<v Speaker 5>them more efficient. They're going to help them get an

0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.120
<v Speaker 5>answer to the exist as an assist. They're going to help

0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:24.160
<v Speaker 5>you get an answer more quickly. They're going to help

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 5>you get a better answer, but they'll be in the background,

0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 5>supporting that person you're.

0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.600
<v Speaker 2>Talking to, all right, love to hear that rather than

0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.679
<v Speaker 2>taking over. Rick, thank you so much, really appreciate it.

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:33.640
<v Speaker 4>Thanks for having me on.

0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Thank you for having us, Rick Wurster. He's a president

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:39.040
<v Speaker 2>of course of Charles Schwab onside EDH Schwab Impact. We're

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.840
<v Speaker 2>just getting started though. On this Wednesday, Carol Master along

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:45.200
<v Speaker 2>with Tim Stenewick, and you're listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week.

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.079
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.559
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, hard radio app and the Bloomberg Business app,

0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.079
<v Speaker 1>or one just live on YouTube.

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.559
<v Speaker 3>Well. One of the most read on the Bloomberg Terminal

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 3>over earlier this week all about the challenges that active

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.120
<v Speaker 3>asset managers are facing Carol even Matt Levine wrote about

0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.120
<v Speaker 3>this in his column on Monday. Across the one hundred

0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:20.679
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollar asset management industry, money managers have been confronted

0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.079
<v Speaker 3>by a tectonic shift when it comes to investor appetite.

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.040
<v Speaker 3>They're looking for cheaper, passive strategies at least heard this

0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 3>before right over the last decade.

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, and now they're facing something even more dire. The

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.640
<v Speaker 2>unprecedented run of bull markets may be a thing of

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:34.880
<v Speaker 2>the past. We've got a good guest to get into

0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:36.960
<v Speaker 2>all of this, who actually is going to talk about

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 2>how maybe people want simple investing, which I find really fascinating.

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.440
<v Speaker 2>Joe Grogan. He has head of distribution over at Wisdom Tree.

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.520
<v Speaker 2>He works with some of the largest custodial platforms that

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 2>are out there. He's here on site with us in Philadelphia.

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 2>Wisdom Tree, by the way, it's an asset management firm.

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 2>You know who they are. They offer up a lot

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 2>of ETFs and are among those financial firms filing for

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 2>a spot bitcoin ETF, which I'm really interested.

0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.080
<v Speaker 3>We'll spend the whole We'll spend the whole interview talking

0:13:59.080 --> 0:13:59.680
<v Speaker 3>about bitcoin.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 2>You know how many people come up to you and

0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:02.800
<v Speaker 2>be like, let's talk about that bitcoiny TAF.

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 6>Well, first of all, thank you very much for having

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 6>You're welcome. It happens quite a bit. It happens at

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 6>the booth, that happens pretty much everywhere we go. And

0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:12.839
<v Speaker 6>the same answer right now, we really can't speak to.

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 2>That, is there is there interest a little bit?

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 3>Is there a well, talk to me about interest around

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 3>the product. Speak about that. I mean, have you ever

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 3>launched a product that has had this much attention, this

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 3>much interest.

0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 6>It's certainly overwhelming, for sure, the amount of interest that

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 6>gets for whatever reason that may be, it's out there.

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:33.200
<v Speaker 6>It's it's pretty amazing. It's a lot of interest. Maybe

0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.240
<v Speaker 6>not that much of an appetite that we've seen in

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 6>the US, but there's certainly appetite in Europe and Canada.

0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 6>We've seen it. You know, we have a few in Europe.

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:44.760
<v Speaker 6>But as far as the launching the one in the

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.640
<v Speaker 6>US goes, I leave that with our lawyers and our

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 6>church General Council until we get through the SEC.

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 2>Can we just say, though, is it going to be

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:54.040
<v Speaker 2>like cannabis? And they overseight like, is it going to

0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 2>be every like? Is it something? Or do you feel

0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 2>like there's a lot of attention now to try and

0:14:58.280 --> 0:14:59.200
<v Speaker 2>kind of figure this one out.

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 6>You've seen a lot of attention, especially with the rise

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 6>in the last you know, week or two. I mean,

0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 6>it's been amazing to see a meteoric rise in crypto

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 6>and what does that mean for the average investor. I

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 6>mean to your original comment about simplicity, how do you

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 6>make that simple?

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, that's why I'm trying to get my head around

0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 2>those two things.

0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely.

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 2>And you know, we talked to a lot of folks

0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 2>in the digital world, if you will, Bitcoin world, crypto world,

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 2>and they're like, you know, it's so pure in all

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 2>those things, but it's complicated.

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:26.120
<v Speaker 6>It's extremely complicated.

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.240
<v Speaker 3>You don't have your cold storage all set up.

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 7>I do not.

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 2>So that's so tell me this, you know, interest and

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:36.400
<v Speaker 2>desire for things more simplistic. Yeah, and then you have this.

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 6>Well, let's put crypto aside and talk about simplicity and

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 6>what that means. I mean, we're seeing this huge shift

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 6>towards simplicity away from the real complex type of investment strategies.

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 6>And I think the biggest reason behind that is the

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 6>average consumer or the investor. They can't understand these products,

0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 6>they can't manage them, So how are they going to

0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 6>actually try to understand them, work with them and put

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 6>them into portfolios? You know? So as we go to

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.200
<v Speaker 6>a simpler process, a simpler type of formula, it doesn't

0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:05.600
<v Speaker 6>mean we're losing sophistication.

0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 2>Well, that's what I want to ask what do you mean?

0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:08.880
<v Speaker 2>They want a simpler like, what is it? Are you

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:11.280
<v Speaker 2>talking about the process itself or the investment itself?

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:13.640
<v Speaker 6>You know, it's more the investment itself, okay, right. They

0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:16.680
<v Speaker 6>want to understand the underlying investment, how it works. You know,

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 6>back in the days, over the last few years, we've

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 6>seen a lot of option based strategies, a lot of

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 6>derivative tape strategies, very complicated, very tough to understand. If

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:27.720
<v Speaker 6>the market goes up, these go down. How does that work?

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.720
<v Speaker 6>Now it's really well, what about the traditional stock and

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 6>bond portfolios? What about these portfolios that we can better understand?

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:33.960
<v Speaker 2>That's what people want.

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 6>Well, they're looking for that. They're looking for the quality

0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.640
<v Speaker 6>type investments. We're seeing a big shift of quality in

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.160
<v Speaker 6>our in our business. That's what they're looking for.

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.359
<v Speaker 3>If people don't understand something, does it belong in their portfolio?

0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 6>That's a great question.

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:50.880
<v Speaker 3>I know what Warren Buffet would say, Yeah, it's a.

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 2>Great Lynch would have said it right decades ago.

0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:54.920
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely, Peter Lynch, I used to work in fidelity for

0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 6>quite a while, and yeah, you know he always said,

0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:58.120
<v Speaker 6>if you can go into a store and you see

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.120
<v Speaker 6>buyers buying those products. That's problem be the investment you want.

0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 6>That's simple of a philosophy.

0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:05.359
<v Speaker 2>All right, So where does that go then? If we

0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 2>get a little bit more simpler, plain vanilla, what does

0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:08.400
<v Speaker 2>it mean?

0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.280
<v Speaker 6>Well, I think you're going to see people, you know,

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.480
<v Speaker 6>having the core part of their portfolio really based around

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 6>a real simpler type investment style, and then they'll take

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:19.720
<v Speaker 6>a smaller percentage and maybe go to the alternative side,

0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.439
<v Speaker 6>or go to the crypto side or something of that nature.

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 2>Well, this is what's interesting too, because I think about

0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:25.879
<v Speaker 2>you know, Tim and I've been at Milk in the

0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:27.920
<v Speaker 2>last couple of years, and it's just it's all about

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:29.000
<v Speaker 2>private markets.

0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:31.240
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, private markets and private chats.

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 2>Private eat That's okay, that's really well said. But I mean,

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 2>I guess it's simpler. It's just lending right outside the

0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.520
<v Speaker 2>kind of traditional infrastructure. Is that part of the simpler

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:42.520
<v Speaker 2>investing demand?

0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:44.800
<v Speaker 6>Well, you're also talking about a very high net worth

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.840
<v Speaker 6>you know demographic over there, yep, So they do have

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 6>access to those portfolios. Your general population generally doesn't have access.

0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.240
<v Speaker 2>But should they and their demand?

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.119
<v Speaker 6>Do you think this should be a democracy democratization of

0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.480
<v Speaker 6>certain products and I think should brought down to the

0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.119
<v Speaker 6>lower level, of course, and I think that's what wisdom

0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:04.640
<v Speaker 6>Tree is very good at is trying to provide access

0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.679
<v Speaker 6>to different types of asset classes, benchmarks, et cetera in

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:08.640
<v Speaker 6>a simplified way.

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.200
<v Speaker 3>So talk to us about model portfolios getting a ton

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 3>of attention right now, yep. Well, first of all, explain

0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:16.639
<v Speaker 3>what they are to people who might not be familiar

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 3>with model portfolios.

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.240
<v Speaker 6>Model portfolios are there's not an advisor out there that

0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.919
<v Speaker 6>doesn't run a model portfolio for the clients. You know,

0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:26.480
<v Speaker 6>a person may be invested with an advisor and they're

0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.360
<v Speaker 6>going to be in a model portfolio. It's scalable, it's efficient,

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.120
<v Speaker 6>but also it's risk mitigating. So and what I mean

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.679
<v Speaker 6>by that is the advisor, whether they do it themselves

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.639
<v Speaker 6>outsource that they would look at investing in sixty percent

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 6>equities forty percent bonds, and of that mix they might

0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:46.160
<v Speaker 6>be you know, some growth equities, value equities, but really

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.720
<v Speaker 6>they build a portfolio that can withstand different cycles. We're

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.320
<v Speaker 6>seeing a pretty ugly market today, and I can guarantee

0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 6>you if you are just holding a singular stock versus

0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.360
<v Speaker 6>a model, the model at fare better today. So it's

0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.320
<v Speaker 6>just more risk standpoint. Now, great, if that model was

0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 6>just all hyper growth securities whatever and not really true

0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:07.359
<v Speaker 6>diverse flid model, they might have difficulty.

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 2>I do wonder about, like how much you know in

0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.440
<v Speaker 2>a zero rate environment for so long, everybody got a

0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 2>little bit lazy, right, And also, you know this idea

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 2>of you know, principal preservation kind of went away because

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:18.520
<v Speaker 2>you just didn't need to think about it. It's a

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 2>different environment.

0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:21.840
<v Speaker 6>Anybody could have made money in the last ten years.

0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:23.080
<v Speaker 6>If you didn't make money in the market in the

0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 6>last ten years, you did something wrong, real wrong, right

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.680
<v Speaker 6>Right nowadays where you've seen fixed actually fixed income actually

0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:31.359
<v Speaker 6>provide a return. I saw a study today that said

0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 6>cash has the best return of the last twelve to

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.920
<v Speaker 6>eighteen months. So that's a much different dynamic than say

0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:40.120
<v Speaker 6>ten years ago or two years ago, whereas just all

0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 6>growth funds all the way right now, like, if you're

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:46.119
<v Speaker 6>not invested in very ultra short term fixed income or

0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 6>cash products to balance everything else off, you probably have

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:50.280
<v Speaker 6>a negative portfolio.

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:53.440
<v Speaker 3>What's the biggest question you're hearing from your clients right now?

0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:54.520
<v Speaker 6>What do I do?

0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:58.199
<v Speaker 3>What are you saying? What do you like? What do

0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:00.320
<v Speaker 3>I do, or like, what do you what do you

0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 3>actually do?

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:01.320
<v Speaker 4>Exactly?

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:02.200
<v Speaker 3>It is?

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:05.399
<v Speaker 6>What are you doing listen the investment? Like our advisors,

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 6>I mean, you know, they have limited access to certain things.

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 6>They're too busy managing their relationships and helping their own

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.720
<v Speaker 6>company grow to really get a deep look at the market,

0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 6>so they rely on us, Whereas we have a group

0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.960
<v Speaker 6>of thirty individuals that in our research department that all

0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:21.840
<v Speaker 6>they do is watch the markets and try to understand

0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:25.880
<v Speaker 6>how can we better place our investors our advisors into

0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.000
<v Speaker 6>products that will stand the test of time.

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.200
<v Speaker 2>What's the time that you refer to though in past

0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:34.000
<v Speaker 2>history that's similar to this cycle? Or is there nothing

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:35.960
<v Speaker 2>to go back to? Because I feel like anybody who's

0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:38.320
<v Speaker 2>seen a lot of cycles is a lot more sanguine

0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:40.119
<v Speaker 2>about kind of where we are today?

0:20:40.440 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 6>Are you saying that I.

0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:44.080
<v Speaker 7>Have?

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 2>But I do think it gives you some perspective. We've

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.560
<v Speaker 2>got about thirty seconds back. But I do think about

0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:52.760
<v Speaker 2>how you lean on anything that we've gone through.

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:54.960
<v Speaker 6>The you know, the last three to five years is

0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 6>much different than anything we've ever seen. Everything went up

0:20:58.080 --> 0:20:59.959
<v Speaker 6>and much different. You really have to take a lot

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:02.240
<v Speaker 6>on the term perspective to understand what the market cycles

0:21:02.280 --> 0:21:04.760
<v Speaker 6>go through, because this has it's been a fictitious market

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:07.480
<v Speaker 6>cycle last five eight years. So if you go back

0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:09.199
<v Speaker 6>further the night, you'll get a better understanding of what

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.679
<v Speaker 6>market cycles should look like. What's normal.

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:13.040
<v Speaker 2>Is there one that you refer back to?

0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 6>Not really. It depends on the ass healthful, It depends

0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:18.320
<v Speaker 6>on the asset class. If it's pixing, come but it's it,

0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:20.640
<v Speaker 6>go back ten years. If it's growth, go back five.

0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.679
<v Speaker 2>More optimistic, more pessimistic. Right now in terms of the investment,

0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 2>Alec just got about.

0:21:24.359 --> 0:21:25.760
<v Speaker 6>Fifteen cautiously optimistic.

0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:29.480
<v Speaker 2>That's not a ques. That's not an answer. This was fun.

0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:32.440
<v Speaker 2>Thank you very much, really yeah so much.

0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:35.040
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so good to see you. Thank you so much.

0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:37.879
<v Speaker 3>Joe Grogan is head of distribution at wisterm Tree. He's

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 3>with us here at Schwab Impact in Philadelphia.

0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:44.320
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:55.040
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:21:55.480 --> 0:22:05.600
<v Speaker 1>just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:12.840
<v Speaker 2>We are in Philadelphia. It's SHWAB Inpact twenty twenty three,

0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 2>and got to say, I feel like we have the

0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:17.639
<v Speaker 2>perfect guest because we have talked so much about the

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:19.919
<v Speaker 2>fixed income world and it's a tricky one with us.

0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.720
<v Speaker 2>Is Kathy Jones, Managing director and chief Fixed in comestrateg

0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:25.239
<v Speaker 2>just at Schwab Center for Financial Research on site with

0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:29.160
<v Speaker 2>us here at the SHWAB Impact Conference. Are you really

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:31.240
<v Speaker 2>popular at that conference?

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 3>She's like, finally my time has come. It's been ten

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:37.960
<v Speaker 3>years of zero interest rates and now everyone wants to

0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:39.200
<v Speaker 3>talk about yields.

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 7>Everyone wants to talk about yields.

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:44.240
<v Speaker 8>I don't know if that makes me popular, but yeah,

0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:47.920
<v Speaker 8>there's a renewed interest in fixed income these days, which

0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 8>is pretty you know, it's pretty fun.

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 3>Is that an understatement of renewed interest?

0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:51.840
<v Speaker 7>Yeah?

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:54.160
<v Speaker 3>I mean, at least in our own programming, Carol, it's

0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:56.840
<v Speaker 3>like much more than a reneude interest. Every day on

0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 3>our planning call, WET, we're saying our first guests needs

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:00.960
<v Speaker 3>to be about ra We need to have someone on

0:23:01.040 --> 0:23:02.359
<v Speaker 3>to talk about rates. And there's a reason.

0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:07.399
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, you know, we've had huge volatility, not only in

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 8>the rate of change, in the increase in rates, but

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:13.080
<v Speaker 8>the level has gone up to you know, a level

0:23:13.080 --> 0:23:16.159
<v Speaker 8>we haven't seen in well over a decade. And I

0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:19.560
<v Speaker 8>think it has taken most people by surprise in both ways,

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.359
<v Speaker 8>that the rate of change was so rapid and that

0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:25.320
<v Speaker 8>the level is so high and staying so high. So

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:28.600
<v Speaker 8>it's really just sort of changed the landscape very very quickly.

0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:33.440
<v Speaker 8>And this last leg up since say September, has been,

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:35.920
<v Speaker 8>you know, quite a big shock to the market.

0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:38.320
<v Speaker 2>Kathy, I feel like people are also increasingly talking about

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 2>it. It's not just about yield, it's also about price, and

0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:42.440
<v Speaker 2>I just wonder how that's kind of making it a

0:23:42.480 --> 0:23:43.440
<v Speaker 2>little bit more interesting.

0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:48.400
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, I think that that's a little bit misplaced.

0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 8>So when you look at bonds, if you know, if

0:23:51.359 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 8>you hold a maturity, you're going to get your principle

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:54.679
<v Speaker 8>back at power plus your interest.

0:23:54.760 --> 0:23:56.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it might take twenty eight years, but.

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.480
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, you shouldn't probably worry about price, probably

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:02.680
<v Speaker 8>shouldn't buy thirty year bonds, right, and most people don't.

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 8>I mean, let's face it, that's not usually the time

0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 8>horizon most people invest in. So I think what you

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:09.440
<v Speaker 8>need to look at when you look at bonds is

0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:13.480
<v Speaker 8>a total return, and that's the income that you receive

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:16.159
<v Speaker 8>plus or minus the price change over a period of time.

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 8>And that's where the narrative gets kind of thrown off

0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:23.240
<v Speaker 8>with people talking about, oh, my goodness, it's forty percent.

0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:26.520
<v Speaker 7>Decline or something. Right, you know, the AAG is down

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:28.520
<v Speaker 7>two and a half percent this year. It was down

0:24:28.560 --> 0:24:31.440
<v Speaker 7>thirteen last year, which was a terrible year, but.

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:33.720
<v Speaker 8>Down two and a half percent. I mean stocks do

0:24:33.800 --> 0:24:36.960
<v Speaker 8>that in ten minutes sometimes, right, So you know, it's

0:24:37.000 --> 0:24:40.560
<v Speaker 8>a whole different asset class that way. And I think

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.640
<v Speaker 8>focusing on the price decline unless your mark to market,

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:47.959
<v Speaker 8>you're some institution that you know for whom that's leveraged,

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 8>and that's important, right, It's not really something you should

0:24:50.720 --> 0:24:51.800
<v Speaker 8>probably spend a lot of time on.

0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 3>You said, last year was it bad year for bonds.

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:56.399
<v Speaker 3>So is this year, and so was the year before

0:24:56.800 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 3>last year. So this could be the third year in

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:01.760
<v Speaker 3>a row that bonds have just performed very poorly. What

0:25:01.800 --> 0:25:03.040
<v Speaker 3>does twenty four look like for you?

0:25:04.400 --> 0:25:06.520
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, we're starting to work on our twenty

0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:08.719
<v Speaker 8>twenty four outlook and it's challenging.

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:11.600
<v Speaker 7>It is always challenging, but this year is particularly challenging,

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:15.000
<v Speaker 7>and I think so our base case is that the

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:16.440
<v Speaker 7>economy does slow down.

0:25:16.480 --> 0:25:18.360
<v Speaker 8>We have a bump here in the third quarter, but

0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:21.159
<v Speaker 8>the relation continues to fall, which it has been falling,

0:25:21.440 --> 0:25:23.879
<v Speaker 8>that the FED is pretty much done in hiking rates

0:25:23.920 --> 0:25:27.880
<v Speaker 8>because of those factors slower growth, less inflation, and that

0:25:27.960 --> 0:25:31.119
<v Speaker 8>bond deals start to come down. Maybe the FED cuts

0:25:31.119 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 8>a couple of times in mid to late twenty twenty four.

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:36.440
<v Speaker 7>You know, longer term yealds start to fall.

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:39.440
<v Speaker 8>We're not looking for a return to very low yields,

0:25:39.480 --> 0:25:44.000
<v Speaker 8>but certainly a positive retail next year. And you know,

0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:46.159
<v Speaker 8>we've seen a lot of opportunity.

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:46.640
<v Speaker 7>In in that now.

0:25:46.800 --> 0:25:49.800
<v Speaker 8>We've been running scenarios, so part of what I'm doing

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:53.679
<v Speaker 8>here at Impact is showing different scenarios so that advisors

0:25:53.720 --> 0:25:56.960
<v Speaker 8>can kind of plan around that. But the good news is,

0:25:57.440 --> 0:26:00.000
<v Speaker 8>you know, a one to five year bond ladder, even

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:03.240
<v Speaker 8>one to ten year bond letter under most circumstances, should

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 8>have a positive return.

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:06.520
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting you talk about scenarios because I feel like

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:08.840
<v Speaker 2>I hear that increasingly that there's I think even J.

0:26:08.960 --> 0:26:12.080
<v Speaker 2>Powell can see that there's a lot of different scenarios

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 2>ahead of us, which makes it very hard for anyone

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:17.760
<v Speaker 2>who has to make calls or make projections or outlooks

0:26:18.200 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 2>at this point. What's you think the riskiest kind of

0:26:22.880 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 2>outlook from here? Is it recession? Hard recession?

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 8>Well for the bond market, no, right, that's right. If

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:33.000
<v Speaker 8>you're in high quality bonds, your fire session will be fine,

0:26:33.000 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 8>will be a place to hide. I think the riskiest

0:26:36.119 --> 0:26:39.280
<v Speaker 8>would be if we were to see you know, more inflation,

0:26:39.480 --> 0:26:42.640
<v Speaker 8>some sort of inflation shock, whether it's oil prices or

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:47.320
<v Speaker 8>something that happens, you know, exogynous to the underlying economy

0:26:47.359 --> 0:26:50.840
<v Speaker 8>that the FED can't handle. Then you know, you could

0:26:50.880 --> 0:26:54.159
<v Speaker 8>you could have real dispersion in terms of performance, and

0:26:54.640 --> 0:26:56.360
<v Speaker 8>it'd be easy to be in the wrong place.

0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:56.880
<v Speaker 7>At the wrong time.

0:26:58.080 --> 0:26:59.520
<v Speaker 3>You know. There was a guest on Bloomberg TV a

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:02.520
<v Speaker 3>little early today who referenced the lack of foreign buyers

0:27:02.560 --> 0:27:05.720
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to US treasuries, How concerning should we

0:27:06.080 --> 0:27:07.399
<v Speaker 3>how concerned should we be about that?

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 8>I will push back on that notion. You know, I

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 8>follow the data pretty closely. It's not the data is

0:27:14.040 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 8>not smooth, and you have to look in very different places.

0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.879
<v Speaker 8>But on the Bloomberg terminal, when you look at the

0:27:19.920 --> 0:27:20.880
<v Speaker 8>TICK data, say, for.

0:27:20.920 --> 0:27:22.640
<v Speaker 7>China, they are buying bonds.

0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:26.360
<v Speaker 8>When you look at the total holdings foreign investors, it's

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 8>still it's still very steady. So some of the decline

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:33.800
<v Speaker 8>in so called purchasing is because it's marked to market.

0:27:33.880 --> 0:27:36.440
<v Speaker 8>The price is as you mentioned, the price is down.

0:27:36.520 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 8>It's looking like they're selling or they're not buying, but

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:44.080
<v Speaker 8>actually they're just holding. So I will push back against

0:27:44.080 --> 0:27:44.679
<v Speaker 8>that idea.

0:27:44.880 --> 0:27:47.200
<v Speaker 2>But what is it more problematic that the VET isn't

0:27:47.200 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 2>buying and that we're also a lot of new issuance

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 2>coming into the market, probably more coming.

0:27:51.720 --> 0:27:54.280
<v Speaker 8>That's a bigger dynamic, right, because we've lost the price

0:27:54.320 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 8>incentive buyer and we have a lot more issuance. Again,

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:05.080
<v Speaker 8>on supply historically not a big concern when I have

0:28:05.160 --> 0:28:09.119
<v Speaker 8>spent many decades trying to find a correlation statistically between

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:14.159
<v Speaker 8>supply and yield, and I can tell you there's nothing reable.

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:16.240
<v Speaker 7>No, seriously, seriously.

0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:17.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean that's important.

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:19.399
<v Speaker 7>I've been doing this since the late seventies. Yeah, and

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 7>I have tried to do this.

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:22.840
<v Speaker 8>I've been sitting on trading desks where you know, it's

0:28:22.880 --> 0:28:24.280
<v Speaker 8>always like, oh, we auction's coming.

0:28:24.280 --> 0:28:25.880
<v Speaker 7>We got to back up. This has got to happen,

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:27.920
<v Speaker 7>that's gonna happen. It's kind of fifty to fifty.

0:28:28.080 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 2>That's interesting because it's such a big part of the

0:28:29.560 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 2>narrative right now, I know, so what is the important narrative?

0:28:32.359 --> 0:28:35.240
<v Speaker 2>I listen. Our last guest was kind of laughing at

0:28:35.240 --> 0:28:37.360
<v Speaker 2>me because I said something about having lived through many

0:28:37.359 --> 0:28:39.320
<v Speaker 2>different market cycles. It's like, are you telling me I'm old?

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:41.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm like no, but I just feel like there is

0:28:41.360 --> 0:28:44.560
<v Speaker 2>something to having seen none. Every market cycle is the same,

0:28:44.760 --> 0:28:47.760
<v Speaker 2>no doubt about it. This one's a crazy one coming

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:49.880
<v Speaker 2>off the pandemic and everything that went along with it.

0:28:50.000 --> 0:28:51.720
<v Speaker 2>But is there a market cycle that you kind of

0:28:51.800 --> 0:28:54.920
<v Speaker 2>lean on to say, maybe this helps me understand a

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:56.640
<v Speaker 2>little bit about where we are, or you can tell

0:28:56.640 --> 0:28:57.000
<v Speaker 2>me no.

0:28:57.600 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, Well, you know, part of what I'm talking about

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:01.360
<v Speaker 8>tomorrow my session is how.

0:29:01.280 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 7>Different this cycle is from most.

0:29:04.120 --> 0:29:06.560
<v Speaker 8>It reminds me a little bit more, you know, in

0:29:06.640 --> 0:29:09.640
<v Speaker 8>some ways of the nineties when green Span doubled the

0:29:09.640 --> 0:29:12.120
<v Speaker 8>FED funds rate in a year from three to six percent,

0:29:13.120 --> 0:29:16.680
<v Speaker 8>but inflation was pretty quiet at that stage.

0:29:16.320 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 7>Of the game. That wasn't as volatile as it is now.

0:29:18.520 --> 0:29:22.400
<v Speaker 8>So this is more like a combination of other cycles,

0:29:22.440 --> 0:29:24.280
<v Speaker 8>but it's not the same.

0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:27.920
<v Speaker 3>I'm still trying to get out from you what twenty

0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:30.080
<v Speaker 3>four looks like in what longer term looks.

0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 2>Like, because you know you've started like working.

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:34.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, like what are the things, what are the things

0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:37.040
<v Speaker 3>that you're taking into account right now? What are you

0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 3>what's going into that worksheet that that you're working up

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:42.960
<v Speaker 3>right now for your outlook.

0:29:43.200 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 8>So the three major drivers of bond yields tend to

0:29:46.240 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 8>be FED policy, economic growth, and inflation. I feel like

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:55.720
<v Speaker 8>all those are working in a positive direction. Next year

0:29:56.040 --> 0:29:59.360
<v Speaker 8>a FED policy it's either higher for longer from here

0:29:59.560 --> 0:30:02.680
<v Speaker 8>or it's you know, down a little bit, So that

0:30:02.760 --> 0:30:05.840
<v Speaker 8>should work, like someone, thank you, been a lot of talking.

0:30:07.880 --> 0:30:11.680
<v Speaker 8>And then the second one, inflation is coming down. When

0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 8>you look at the core PCE, it's down quite a

0:30:14.800 --> 0:30:16.840
<v Speaker 8>bit on a three month rate of change basis, and

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:18.320
<v Speaker 8>all the inflation.

0:30:18.040 --> 0:30:20.320
<v Speaker 7>Charts are you know, turning over.

0:30:20.880 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 8>And then you know we have economic growth and that's

0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:26.920
<v Speaker 8>been the surprise. The third quarter bomp of growth has

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:29.200
<v Speaker 8>been I think the thing that threw everybody off.

0:30:29.480 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 3>So that given what you just said, would you say

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:34.959
<v Speaker 3>that yields have peaked the cycle?

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:37.680
<v Speaker 2>Give her a longer questions, so she can here, would.

0:30:37.440 --> 0:30:39.880
<v Speaker 3>You, well, why don't why don't we talk a little

0:30:39.880 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 3>bit about that everyone everyone's always told me to ask

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:47.840
<v Speaker 3>shorter questions. Everything that Kathy just told us. You know,

0:30:48.320 --> 0:30:50.080
<v Speaker 3>things are moving in the right direction. Would you say

0:30:50.080 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 3>that yields have peaked in this cycle?

0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:52.720
<v Speaker 7>You know, I.

0:30:52.680 --> 0:30:56.160
<v Speaker 8>Believed it before and they went back up. So I'm

0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:58.800
<v Speaker 8>a little I'm a little gun shy to make that call.

0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:03.320
<v Speaker 8>The way the market's behaving, it doesn't act like the

0:31:03.400 --> 0:31:07.480
<v Speaker 8>peak is in okay, And that's more and more sort

0:31:07.520 --> 0:31:10.920
<v Speaker 8>of a technical not a fundamental point of view. There's

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:13.800
<v Speaker 8>just it goes up too easily. There's like an air

0:31:13.880 --> 0:31:15.800
<v Speaker 8>pocket whenever yields go up.

0:31:15.920 --> 0:31:17.719
<v Speaker 2>So have you ruled out six percent?

0:31:18.120 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 3>Yes?

0:31:19.440 --> 0:31:21.240
<v Speaker 8>I don't have well, I have six percent of the

0:31:21.920 --> 0:31:24.600
<v Speaker 8>I oh no, I have six percent FED funds in

0:31:24.640 --> 0:31:28.600
<v Speaker 8>one of my scenarios. But the tenure doesn't get there

0:31:28.640 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 8>because then you reinvert, you know, really invert.

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:33.440
<v Speaker 7>The curve if the FED goes to six percent.

0:31:33.760 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 3>So I want to make sure I heard that right.

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:37.920
<v Speaker 3>You don't you don't see this cycle six percent on

0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 3>the tenure?

0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I don't.

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 8>I don't have it built in because you think about

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:47.600
<v Speaker 8>all the tightening that has happened, not here alone.

0:31:47.040 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 7>But all over the world.

0:31:48.400 --> 0:31:50.840
<v Speaker 8>We have, you know, Germany's in recession, we have a

0:31:50.880 --> 0:31:54.920
<v Speaker 8>slow down, China is still struggling with this debt overload.

0:31:55.880 --> 0:31:59.240
<v Speaker 8>You ask yourself, where is the growth and inflation going

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 8>to come from with all the tightening and financial conditions

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:03.880
<v Speaker 8>that's taken place.

0:32:03.960 --> 0:32:05.680
<v Speaker 7>That would get us to six percent.

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:10.520
<v Speaker 8>We'd have to have a pretty robust kind of surprise

0:32:10.880 --> 0:32:14.440
<v Speaker 8>or some external shock that was so huge, and.

0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:15.520
<v Speaker 2>I just see price it.

0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:18.640
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, but even oil price, I mean, it's a tax, right,

0:32:18.800 --> 0:32:22.400
<v Speaker 8>so even an oil price shock probably wouldn't do it.

0:32:22.520 --> 0:32:27.480
<v Speaker 2>I think us getting into military conflicts increasingly.

0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:27.400
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I me.

0:32:27.520 --> 0:32:32.440
<v Speaker 8>Or you could you can construct the nineteen forties fifties

0:32:32.560 --> 0:32:34.160
<v Speaker 8>kind of scenario if you want to.

0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:38.000
<v Speaker 2>That's the second time, yeah, in a week that we've

0:32:38.040 --> 0:32:39.400
<v Speaker 2>had people make references.

0:32:39.440 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, yeah, I mean that would be the scenario I think,

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:46.680
<v Speaker 8>But that also involved the treasury owning, you know, owning bond,

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 8>buying bonds, and holding down yields to finance the expenditures.

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:54.880
<v Speaker 8>So I'm not sure that would get us a six percent.

0:32:56.120 --> 0:32:59.640
<v Speaker 8>So it's it's hard. It's hard to really construct that scenario,

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:03.200
<v Speaker 8>but it's in kind of our our worst cases. The

0:33:03.520 --> 0:33:08.120
<v Speaker 8>FED gets to six percent, but the yield curve inverts.

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:08.800
<v Speaker 7>More when that happens.

0:33:08.880 --> 0:33:10.200
<v Speaker 3>What about a recession.

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 8>Call, Yeah, you know, it's it's a it's a tough again.

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:16.120
<v Speaker 8>Another one of those tough calls is the cycles so

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:20.400
<v Speaker 8>strange compared to what we've seen in the past. But

0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:23.320
<v Speaker 8>you know, there's a there's certainly a risk of recession,

0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 8>particularly the tighter things are for the longer and you know.

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:29.320
<v Speaker 7>You are steeing stress.

0:33:30.040 --> 0:33:30.200
<v Speaker 3>You know.

0:33:30.240 --> 0:33:32.040
<v Speaker 8>One of the things I like to do is read

0:33:32.200 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 8>the comments in the regional FED reports. Yah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

0:33:37.040 --> 0:33:40.480
<v Speaker 8>just amazing Bige Book and the Beige Book. But the

0:33:40.560 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 8>regional comments in the regionals are just in Dallas particularly,

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:44.840
<v Speaker 8>they're very spicy.

0:33:45.000 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:33:45.600 --> 0:33:47.520
<v Speaker 9>You get a lot of great comments out.

0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:50.240
<v Speaker 7>Of there, Kathy. Yeah, this is what I do in

0:33:50.280 --> 0:33:51.680
<v Speaker 7>my free times. I we love it.

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:55.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. But but what what you're well, what do you get?

0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 7>Yeah? Yeah.

0:33:56.040 --> 0:33:58.680
<v Speaker 8>Instead of inflation being the big concern, which it was

0:33:58.800 --> 0:34:01.360
<v Speaker 8>six to twelve months ago, well now it's a slowdown.

0:34:01.400 --> 0:34:04.640
<v Speaker 8>It's commercial real estate, it's the auto sector and the

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:09.239
<v Speaker 8>difficulty of borrowers to get financing it's companies worrying about

0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:12.359
<v Speaker 8>small companies worrying about their finance costs. So there's been

0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:14.960
<v Speaker 8>a real shift in tone, and I think that that's

0:34:15.040 --> 0:34:16.880
<v Speaker 8>telling you that the rate hikes are fighting.

0:34:17.040 --> 0:34:18.960
<v Speaker 3>But we're not seeing that play out yet in the

0:34:19.000 --> 0:34:19.600
<v Speaker 3>labor market.

0:34:20.080 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 2>No, we're not.

0:34:20.719 --> 0:34:24.919
<v Speaker 8>Which again, very strange cycle that way. Normally you would

0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:27.760
<v Speaker 8>by now have seen more softness in the labor market.

0:34:28.520 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 7>This cycle has been different.

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:32.840
<v Speaker 2>You can go anywhere in the fixed income world. What

0:34:32.880 --> 0:34:37.080
<v Speaker 2>do you like where in the world, Well, that's you know,

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:41.000
<v Speaker 2>from when we're off air, No, but I mean municipals, corporates.

0:34:41.200 --> 0:34:43.399
<v Speaker 2>But we talk so much, of course about the treasury curve,

0:34:43.440 --> 0:34:45.279
<v Speaker 2>as we should, But where would you go or where

0:34:45.280 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 2>do you see the best opportunities?

0:34:46.680 --> 0:34:49.840
<v Speaker 8>So we like a mix of high credit quality bonds.

0:34:49.840 --> 0:34:54.560
<v Speaker 8>It's treasuries, government backed security, some mbs, investment grade corporates,

0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:57.200
<v Speaker 8>investment grade communis. And you're talking about putting the other

0:34:57.280 --> 0:35:00.239
<v Speaker 8>portfolio with the duration of maybe five or six that

0:35:00.320 --> 0:35:02.680
<v Speaker 8>you're getting five and a half six percent returns.

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 7>That's not a bad thing.

0:35:04.120 --> 0:35:05.080
<v Speaker 2>Where don't you want to be?

0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:05.560
<v Speaker 9>Right now?

0:35:05.719 --> 0:35:07.880
<v Speaker 7>High yield I'm bang loans.

0:35:08.640 --> 0:35:14.359
<v Speaker 2>Interesting bank loans to smaller credit risks, too much credit risk.

0:35:14.440 --> 0:35:15.560
<v Speaker 2>All right, we gotta leave it there.

0:35:15.600 --> 0:35:17.840
<v Speaker 3>What hey, we're getting some breaking news.

0:35:17.960 --> 0:35:18.719
<v Speaker 2>Meta earning me.

0:35:18.719 --> 0:35:19.520
<v Speaker 3>Meta earnings are.

0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:21.560
<v Speaker 2>Out, Sharing Jones, Thank you so much.

0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Kathy, Meta platform seeing shares of fourth quarter

0:35:24.239 --> 0:35:27.760
<v Speaker 3>revenue coming in within estimates thirty six point five billion

0:35:27.760 --> 0:35:30.879
<v Speaker 3>to forty billion dollars. Meta shares down as much as

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:33.799
<v Speaker 3>four percent ahead of earnings, but going up now, Carol,

0:35:33.840 --> 0:35:35.160
<v Speaker 3>about three person two and a half percent.

0:35:35.280 --> 0:35:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and this is all you know already after our

0:35:37.040 --> 0:35:40.120
<v Speaker 2>four percent decline in today's regular session. So we're seeing

0:35:40.120 --> 0:35:44.239
<v Speaker 2>definitely what medicines higher infrastructure related costs next year twenty

0:35:44.320 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 2>twenty four total expenses of about ninety four to ninety

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:50.520
<v Speaker 2>nine billion. The estimate was for ninety six point five

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:52.200
<v Speaker 2>to three.

0:35:52.520 --> 0:35:56.120
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:35:56.120 --> 0:35:59.719
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg,

0:36:00.360 --> 0:36:03.640
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:36:03.719 --> 0:36:06.840
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:10.080
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:36:14.120 --> 0:36:16.920
<v Speaker 2>We are at Schwab Impact twenty twenty three, and you

0:36:17.000 --> 0:36:20.280
<v Speaker 2>just look around us and there are just lots of exhibits,

0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:21.560
<v Speaker 2>lots of booths.

0:36:21.719 --> 0:36:22.759
<v Speaker 3>Lots of advisors.

0:36:22.880 --> 0:36:25.400
<v Speaker 2>Lots of advisors, that's what I would say, who are

0:36:25.440 --> 0:36:27.880
<v Speaker 2>figuring out how to maybe do what they do in

0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:29.359
<v Speaker 2>a smarter way, more efficient way.

0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:31.239
<v Speaker 3>I've never been around more advisors in my life.

0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:31.480
<v Speaker 4>Here.

0:36:31.719 --> 0:36:32.600
<v Speaker 7>Do you feel well advised?

0:36:32.600 --> 0:36:34.239
<v Speaker 3>I was advised on the way to the bathroom, and

0:36:34.280 --> 0:36:36.080
<v Speaker 3>I was advised on the way back from the bathroom.

0:36:36.440 --> 0:36:37.719
<v Speaker 7>And what were you told?

0:36:38.040 --> 0:36:40.239
<v Speaker 3>Oh, you know they have solutions for where you to

0:36:40.280 --> 0:36:40.920
<v Speaker 3>put your money.

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:43.520
<v Speaker 2>Well, listen, we have a great guest with us right now,

0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:46.239
<v Speaker 2>Jelina Kursh, she's managing director, head of Client Experience for

0:36:46.239 --> 0:36:48.960
<v Speaker 2>Schwab Advisor Services here with us on site at the

0:36:48.960 --> 0:36:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Schwab Impact Conference. You know, for those folks, first of all, welcome, welcome,

0:36:53.040 --> 0:36:55.520
<v Speaker 2>thank you, and thank you because, as we said earlier,

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:58.640
<v Speaker 2>thank you for having us. You know, people might not

0:36:58.719 --> 0:37:03.160
<v Speaker 2>be familiar with this side of the business. Just for

0:37:03.280 --> 0:37:05.640
<v Speaker 2>those who are listening and watching right now, what this

0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:06.360
<v Speaker 2>is all about.

0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:10.080
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, this premiere event for us is just it's like

0:37:10.120 --> 0:37:14.239
<v Speaker 10>a homecoming because we have fifteen thousand independent advisors who

0:37:14.360 --> 0:37:17.600
<v Speaker 10>are all about being fiduciaries to their clients. So they've

0:37:17.600 --> 0:37:20.040
<v Speaker 10>got the best interests of their clients in heart. It's

0:37:20.080 --> 0:37:24.040
<v Speaker 10>not about conflict with product and placement and how much

0:37:24.120 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 10>they can make. It's really about how they can support

0:37:26.360 --> 0:37:29.680
<v Speaker 10>their clients and their goals. And it's really well aligned

0:37:29.680 --> 0:37:31.880
<v Speaker 10>with us as a company and our corporate values.

0:37:31.960 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 3>But I think what might be challenging for somebody who

0:37:33.560 --> 0:37:36.160
<v Speaker 3>doesn't follow the industry or follow Schwab closely, as they

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:38.040
<v Speaker 3>say to themselves, wait a second, I can go into

0:37:38.080 --> 0:37:40.399
<v Speaker 3>a Charles Schwab anywhere in the US, or I can

0:37:40.960 --> 0:37:43.880
<v Speaker 3>call Charles Schwab and I can have an advisor available

0:37:43.920 --> 0:37:48.399
<v Speaker 3>to me. Yet you also support advisors who ostensibly look

0:37:48.480 --> 0:37:50.240
<v Speaker 3>like competitors to your own advisors.

0:37:50.280 --> 0:37:52.799
<v Speaker 9>You're nodding, Yeah, it's definitely true.

0:37:52.840 --> 0:37:55.880
<v Speaker 10>There is a wide spectrum of needs from across the

0:37:56.040 --> 0:37:58.239
<v Speaker 10>entire client base. So for a lot of clients, they

0:37:58.280 --> 0:38:00.000
<v Speaker 10>want to be able to go into a local branch

0:38:00.080 --> 0:38:02.239
<v Speaker 10>as you cite, but sometimes they also want to have

0:38:02.239 --> 0:38:04.960
<v Speaker 10>a deep relationship with somebody that's local in their community

0:38:05.320 --> 0:38:07.480
<v Speaker 10>that is also independent business owner.

0:38:07.760 --> 0:38:10.080
<v Speaker 3>So how does that person who's an independent business owner

0:38:10.120 --> 0:38:13.120
<v Speaker 3>who is local in someone's community use Charles Schwab services

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:14.440
<v Speaker 3>so we act.

0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 10>As their custodian, so they place their assets with us

0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:22.160
<v Speaker 10>to create a safe, secure haven for their business to transact.

0:38:22.200 --> 0:38:25.480
<v Speaker 10>So any kind of operational needs that they have, product

0:38:25.520 --> 0:38:28.400
<v Speaker 10>needs that they might have, we can support those seamlessly

0:38:28.440 --> 0:38:30.120
<v Speaker 10>for them, which allows them to run a much more

0:38:30.200 --> 0:38:31.080
<v Speaker 10>scalable practice.

0:38:31.120 --> 0:38:33.920
<v Speaker 2>So tap into what they are wanting more and more

0:38:34.040 --> 0:38:35.879
<v Speaker 2>in terms of being able to do their business maybe

0:38:35.880 --> 0:38:39.480
<v Speaker 2>more efficiently, more productively. A number one and best in

0:38:39.560 --> 0:38:40.640
<v Speaker 2>terms of for their clients.

0:38:40.680 --> 0:38:43.200
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, absolutely, so the number one thing we hear each

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:45.879
<v Speaker 10>year we do a benchmarking study. Perhaps you heard about

0:38:45.880 --> 0:38:48.160
<v Speaker 10>it or read about it, but we have thousands of

0:38:48.200 --> 0:38:50.920
<v Speaker 10>advisors who participate. The number one thing that they told

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:54.520
<v Speaker 10>us that they want this year was help creating a

0:38:54.560 --> 0:38:58.479
<v Speaker 10>more streamlined digital process flow in their back office because again,

0:38:58.560 --> 0:39:01.239
<v Speaker 10>scale is king for them and as they're growing this

0:39:01.960 --> 0:39:05.240
<v Speaker 10>part of the industry that's just growing part of financial services,

0:39:05.280 --> 0:39:09.040
<v Speaker 10>so they really need help and support creating process automation

0:39:09.480 --> 0:39:11.880
<v Speaker 10>so they can spend time serving their clients. Right, nobody

0:39:11.880 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 10>wants to be spending time on paperwork when you could

0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:16.320
<v Speaker 10>be talking in relationship with a client.

0:39:16.400 --> 0:39:18.759
<v Speaker 2>Back office not super sexy, but it's got to get done. No,

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:20.840
<v Speaker 2>I know, I think about it like all the times,

0:39:20.840 --> 0:39:22.640
<v Speaker 2>but it's got to get done. And if you can

0:39:22.640 --> 0:39:24.480
<v Speaker 2>spend so much money, so much time on it, and

0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:26.879
<v Speaker 2>then you're kind of distracted, if you will, from really

0:39:26.920 --> 0:39:28.360
<v Speaker 2>the core of the business is what you're supposed to

0:39:28.400 --> 0:39:28.560
<v Speaker 2>be doing.

0:39:28.800 --> 0:39:30.000
<v Speaker 9>It's got to get done accurately.

0:39:30.200 --> 0:39:32.920
<v Speaker 10>And really, I think the safety and security of our

0:39:32.960 --> 0:39:36.400
<v Speaker 10>brand is a halo for advisors. They trust the brand

0:39:36.440 --> 0:39:39.160
<v Speaker 10>and so therefore their clients feel good about placing their

0:39:39.160 --> 0:39:40.920
<v Speaker 10>assets and custody. They know we're going to look out

0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:42.400
<v Speaker 10>for both the advisor and their clients.

0:39:42.520 --> 0:39:44.240
<v Speaker 3>How sticky is the custodial business.

0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:45.120
<v Speaker 9>It's very sticky.

0:39:45.320 --> 0:39:48.160
<v Speaker 3>I would imagine big piles of money do not like

0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:50.399
<v Speaker 3>to be moved from place to place well and.

0:39:50.440 --> 0:39:53.239
<v Speaker 9>Back to the back office stuff, which isn't sexy. It's hard.

0:39:53.320 --> 0:39:55.880
<v Speaker 10>It's hard to lift an entire piece of your business

0:39:55.880 --> 0:39:59.399
<v Speaker 10>and shift to a different custodian our business model. We're

0:39:59.440 --> 0:40:02.080
<v Speaker 10>working though, really try to make that more seamless in

0:40:02.200 --> 0:40:05.560
<v Speaker 10>terms of digital onboarding, digital account all of those things

0:40:05.560 --> 0:40:07.400
<v Speaker 10>so that it's easy.

0:40:07.680 --> 0:40:09.759
<v Speaker 3>But it is a double edged sword for you, because

0:40:10.000 --> 0:40:13.520
<v Speaker 3>you know you want people to choose you as a custodian,

0:40:14.040 --> 0:40:16.399
<v Speaker 3>but you want the people who have you to stick

0:40:16.440 --> 0:40:18.000
<v Speaker 3>with you as a custodian. So how do you make

0:40:18.040 --> 0:40:21.040
<v Speaker 3>it easy to have somebody who might use a different

0:40:21.040 --> 0:40:23.239
<v Speaker 3>custodian right now come over and say, okay, we want

0:40:23.239 --> 0:40:23.760
<v Speaker 3>to use Schwab.

0:40:24.040 --> 0:40:28.239
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so we have an entire onboarding department, if you will,

0:40:28.280 --> 0:40:31.840
<v Speaker 10>that will actually be hands on feeds on the ground,

0:40:32.040 --> 0:40:33.640
<v Speaker 10>like lifting out the business for you.

0:40:33.719 --> 0:40:37.160
<v Speaker 9>So that it's a lot more easy. It still is

0:40:37.200 --> 0:40:37.840
<v Speaker 9>a lot of work.

0:40:37.880 --> 0:40:40.560
<v Speaker 10>I mean, certainly we're hearing from a lot of advisors

0:40:40.560 --> 0:40:43.320
<v Speaker 10>who were part of the integration, the TDA integration.

0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:46.240
<v Speaker 9>That's a move right and it represents some.

0:40:46.120 --> 0:40:49.160
<v Speaker 10>Additional work for them, But I think the resources we

0:40:49.200 --> 0:40:51.839
<v Speaker 10>can bring to bear actually help make that smoother when

0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:53.120
<v Speaker 10>you're trying to lift out more well.

0:40:53.520 --> 0:40:56.960
<v Speaker 2>Speaking of that of that integration with td Marriagtreate late

0:40:57.600 --> 0:41:00.439
<v Speaker 2>the back office, like, is all of that done? Yeah,

0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:01.440
<v Speaker 2>and you guys are.

0:41:01.360 --> 0:41:04.920
<v Speaker 10>Like one hundred percent on good accuracy all the assets

0:41:04.960 --> 0:41:06.080
<v Speaker 10>case they were supposed to do.

0:41:06.200 --> 0:41:07.759
<v Speaker 9>So that's a win for us.

0:41:07.840 --> 0:41:10.480
<v Speaker 3>What about on the on the consumer facing side, is

0:41:10.760 --> 0:41:12.160
<v Speaker 3>that transition totally done?

0:41:12.280 --> 0:41:14.680
<v Speaker 10>Not one hundred percent of the way they are probably

0:41:14.680 --> 0:41:17.040
<v Speaker 10>about seventy five eighty percent. There are some of their

0:41:17.080 --> 0:41:19.640
<v Speaker 10>active trader population who are big users of Think or

0:41:19.640 --> 0:41:22.480
<v Speaker 10>Swim that'll be migrating in the first quarter of next year.

0:41:22.520 --> 0:41:25.880
<v Speaker 2>What was the trickiest part from your perspective of that integration.

0:41:26.239 --> 0:41:28.480
<v Speaker 10>I think the trickiest part for us was just making

0:41:28.520 --> 0:41:31.640
<v Speaker 10>sure that all of these things were going to flow over.

0:41:31.840 --> 0:41:34.239
<v Speaker 10>There's a lot of technical data that you have to

0:41:34.280 --> 0:41:37.080
<v Speaker 10>think about implementation lights, and when you think about the advisors,

0:41:37.360 --> 0:41:40.360
<v Speaker 10>they're using third parts. They have a data ecosystem that

0:41:40.400 --> 0:41:42.840
<v Speaker 10>has to be maintained. So it wasn't just about books

0:41:42.840 --> 0:41:45.640
<v Speaker 10>and records and asset transfer. It's about ensuring that the

0:41:45.719 --> 0:41:48.400
<v Speaker 10>data that they're used to getting every single day comes

0:41:48.400 --> 0:41:49.960
<v Speaker 10>to them when they expect it, so that they can

0:41:50.040 --> 0:41:53.240
<v Speaker 10>run their businesses, rebalance portfolios, and do all of the things.

0:41:53.120 --> 0:41:54.080
<v Speaker 9>That advisors are doing.

0:41:54.120 --> 0:41:56.520
<v Speaker 2>A few hiccups, sure, a few hiccups.

0:41:56.560 --> 0:41:58.840
<v Speaker 10>Definitely a few hiccups. And I think a lot of

0:41:58.840 --> 0:42:02.240
<v Speaker 10>it is experience. People get used to using a certain platform,

0:42:02.760 --> 0:42:06.240
<v Speaker 10>and when you move that and shift that, it's changed management.

0:42:06.400 --> 0:42:08.480
<v Speaker 2>I wonder too, And I was thinking about our earlier

0:42:08.520 --> 0:42:13.520
<v Speaker 2>conversation when we took with Rick Rick Wurster, and we

0:42:13.600 --> 0:42:15.200
<v Speaker 2>brought it up with a couple of our different guests

0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:17.640
<v Speaker 2>about AI. How does that help with the back office?

0:42:17.680 --> 0:42:19.080
<v Speaker 9>Does it?

0:42:18.719 --> 0:42:20.279
<v Speaker 7>It? Does? It does.

0:42:20.360 --> 0:42:22.440
<v Speaker 9>Although I would say it's early days for us. I

0:42:22.440 --> 0:42:23.080
<v Speaker 9>think it.

0:42:23.120 --> 0:42:25.640
<v Speaker 10>We're being very careful just because there's a lot of

0:42:25.680 --> 0:42:28.560
<v Speaker 10>regulatory scrutiny on how we as a broker dealer are

0:42:28.600 --> 0:42:31.680
<v Speaker 10>implementing that, and we have to be careful and walk before.

0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:32.000
<v Speaker 2>We run there.

0:42:32.440 --> 0:42:34.480
<v Speaker 3>What are some I mean, we have thirty seconds left,

0:42:34.480 --> 0:42:38.799
<v Speaker 3>but give us some ideas of give me an idea though,

0:42:38.800 --> 0:42:39.759
<v Speaker 3>how you can implementn AI.

0:42:39.960 --> 0:42:43.200
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so we're actually going to start internally knowledge management,

0:42:43.280 --> 0:42:45.880
<v Speaker 10>really putting knowledge in the hands of our service professionals

0:42:45.920 --> 0:42:47.920
<v Speaker 10>who have to know a lot about a lot.

0:42:49.239 --> 0:42:51.120
<v Speaker 2>I was just curious about, you know, our audience. It's

0:42:51.120 --> 0:42:53.920
<v Speaker 2>a smarting audience, an investor audience. What do you think

0:42:53.960 --> 0:42:55.920
<v Speaker 2>in twenty five seconds what they should know about what

0:42:55.960 --> 0:42:56.480
<v Speaker 2>you're doing.

0:42:56.840 --> 0:42:58.680
<v Speaker 10>I think they should know that we're here to support

0:42:58.760 --> 0:43:00.800
<v Speaker 10>the way that they want to personalize for their clients.

0:43:00.800 --> 0:43:04.200
<v Speaker 10>At scale, it's the balance between digital and people one

0:43:04.360 --> 0:43:05.280
<v Speaker 10>or the other alone.

0:43:05.320 --> 0:43:06.279
<v Speaker 9>It's not going to get it done.

0:43:06.400 --> 0:43:08.240
<v Speaker 10>You've got to harness it and you've got to deliver

0:43:08.360 --> 0:43:10.040
<v Speaker 10>on that and still make it feel personal.

0:43:10.200 --> 0:43:13.319
<v Speaker 2>All right. We've always talked about like individualized service, right

0:43:13.360 --> 0:43:16.719
<v Speaker 2>and understanding them. Juliana, thank you so much, Really appreciate it.

0:43:16.800 --> 0:43:19.680
<v Speaker 2>Juliana Kuerr. She's managing director, head of Client Experience. I

0:43:19.680 --> 0:43:23.000
<v Speaker 2>bet that keeps her pretty busy at Schwab Advisor Services.

0:43:23.080 --> 0:43:25.879
<v Speaker 2>Right on site with us at Schwab Impact twenty twenty three.

0:43:26.080 --> 0:43:31.360
<v Speaker 2>This is Blueberg Radio. I'm brother Mark, a.

0:43:33.480 --> 0:43:35.920
<v Speaker 7>Journal radio. How about you let me drive?

0:43:36.200 --> 0:43:40.399
<v Speaker 11>Oh no, no, no, no, please, Dug, honey please, I'll

0:43:40.440 --> 0:43:41.560
<v Speaker 11>do the riding gravel.

0:43:42.120 --> 0:43:43.480
<v Speaker 6>Let's mate, I want to try it.

0:43:45.760 --> 0:43:46.600
<v Speaker 7>It's a good question.

0:43:50.440 --> 0:43:53.360
<v Speaker 4>This is the drive to the Globe dot com for me.

0:43:53.440 --> 0:43:55.040
<v Speaker 4>I think we'll buy around yell it.

0:43:55.120 --> 0:43:56.840
<v Speaker 1>On on Bloomberg Radio.

0:43:58.360 --> 0:44:00.479
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, we've got just under a teen minutes

0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:03.120
<v Speaker 2>left in today's trading session, and we've got a day

0:44:03.239 --> 0:44:06.279
<v Speaker 2>another day where we've got stocks down, yields up, and

0:44:06.400 --> 0:44:08.879
<v Speaker 2>with us here on site at Schwab Impact twenty twenty

0:44:08.920 --> 0:44:11.840
<v Speaker 2>three is Ben Kirby in the Flesh, co head of

0:44:11.960 --> 0:44:15.920
<v Speaker 2>investments and portfolio manager at Thornberg Investment Management. They've got

0:44:16.000 --> 0:44:18.440
<v Speaker 2>some forty one billion in assets under management. And as

0:44:18.520 --> 0:44:21.160
<v Speaker 2>we said here, how are you welcome?

0:44:21.280 --> 0:44:24.800
<v Speaker 11>Welcome great. It's a great event, meeting lots of clients,

0:44:24.880 --> 0:44:25.880
<v Speaker 11>lots of great presentations.

0:44:25.920 --> 0:44:27.439
<v Speaker 2>What do you get when you come to an event

0:44:27.560 --> 0:44:28.919
<v Speaker 2>like this, You know, mostly it's.

0:44:28.840 --> 0:44:31.360
<v Speaker 11>A chance to talk to our clients to sort of

0:44:31.400 --> 0:44:33.839
<v Speaker 11>hear what they're thinking. It's interesting. A lot of people

0:44:33.920 --> 0:44:37.959
<v Speaker 11>are pretty bearish, pretty cautious we see in the market today.

0:44:38.040 --> 0:44:40.080
<v Speaker 11>But you know, cash is yielding five and so people

0:44:40.120 --> 0:44:42.239
<v Speaker 11>are pretty interested in putting money in cash.

0:44:42.680 --> 0:44:44.399
<v Speaker 2>Pretty bariss to the point where you say, oh, maybe

0:44:44.400 --> 0:44:47.080
<v Speaker 2>it's a contrarian call, or is it pretty barss that

0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:50.359
<v Speaker 2>maybe things are turning for the worst.

0:44:50.480 --> 0:44:52.680
<v Speaker 11>I just think, yeah, I think I think we see

0:44:53.080 --> 0:44:55.040
<v Speaker 11>we see the economy slowing. A lot of people see

0:44:55.040 --> 0:44:58.440
<v Speaker 11>the economy slowing. But also just cash at five percent

0:44:58.600 --> 0:45:01.200
<v Speaker 11>is attractive to people, you know, maybe more than being bearish.

0:45:01.280 --> 0:45:03.839
<v Speaker 11>It's it's hey, if I can if I can clip

0:45:03.920 --> 0:45:07.120
<v Speaker 11>five percent for a medium term, Uh, you know, maybe

0:45:07.200 --> 0:45:07.759
<v Speaker 11>that's the thing to do.

0:45:07.960 --> 0:45:10.080
<v Speaker 3>What is the term that people are are bearish on?

0:45:11.680 --> 0:45:12.799
<v Speaker 3>Is it the near term?

0:45:14.080 --> 0:45:15.560
<v Speaker 4>So recession risk?

0:45:15.640 --> 0:45:18.200
<v Speaker 11>I think I mean increasingly people are thinking, you know,

0:45:18.280 --> 0:45:21.800
<v Speaker 11>odds of recession are are are falling, so you know,

0:45:21.960 --> 0:45:24.440
<v Speaker 11>soft landing is still is still sort of something that

0:45:24.560 --> 0:45:28.279
<v Speaker 11>people are hopeful for. However, when you look at economists

0:45:28.280 --> 0:45:30.480
<v Speaker 11>and and sort of when you look at many of

0:45:30.560 --> 0:45:35.000
<v Speaker 11>the leading indicators, whether it's the leading indicator index, global

0:45:35.040 --> 0:45:37.799
<v Speaker 11>short rates, you know, Senior Loan Officer survey, all these

0:45:38.239 --> 0:45:44.560
<v Speaker 11>indicators that historically drive recessions and predict recessions, this will

0:45:44.560 --> 0:45:46.719
<v Speaker 11>be the first time ever that, like all of these

0:45:46.800 --> 0:45:49.120
<v Speaker 11>things are predicted predicting a recession, we don't get one. So,

0:45:49.640 --> 0:45:51.080
<v Speaker 11>you know, I still think the odds, you know, we

0:45:51.160 --> 0:45:54.239
<v Speaker 11>think in probabilities, not sort of. Yes, No, odds are

0:45:54.280 --> 0:45:56.600
<v Speaker 11>probably still higher over the next twelve months than over

0:45:56.680 --> 0:45:59.080
<v Speaker 11>a typical twelve months, right, So I think that people

0:45:59.080 --> 0:46:01.560
<v Speaker 11>are looking at that and looking at market. It's pretty expensive,

0:46:02.200 --> 0:46:05.520
<v Speaker 11>and they're saying, you know what, geopolitical risks, all these things,

0:46:05.880 --> 0:46:08.200
<v Speaker 11>maybe it's best to just kind of sit on the sidelines.

0:46:08.280 --> 0:46:10.440
<v Speaker 2>Ben Kirby, when you're back home in Santa Fe, what

0:46:10.600 --> 0:46:13.359
<v Speaker 2>do people most often talk about and do you see

0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:14.800
<v Speaker 2>signs of recession around you?

0:46:15.440 --> 0:46:18.040
<v Speaker 3>Probably Hatch Chilis's people.

0:46:18.400 --> 0:46:20.160
<v Speaker 2>I always ask him about Julia Roberts. But we're not

0:46:20.200 --> 0:46:20.640
<v Speaker 2>going to go there.

0:46:20.760 --> 0:46:21.680
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, one percent.

0:46:21.800 --> 0:46:23.719
<v Speaker 11>So look, uh, Santa Fe is a bit of an

0:46:23.760 --> 0:46:26.200
<v Speaker 11>unusual microcosm. This is you know, it is not a

0:46:26.320 --> 0:46:29.000
<v Speaker 11>financial hub. The restaurants are still busy.

0:46:29.080 --> 0:46:31.200
<v Speaker 3>People are still you know, buying art. People are buying art.

0:46:31.239 --> 0:46:33.120
<v Speaker 2>People are buying art like crazy, right, so, you know

0:46:33.200 --> 0:46:35.439
<v Speaker 2>we is it tourism or regular.

0:46:35.360 --> 0:46:37.759
<v Speaker 11>It is it is mostly tourism. So you know, Santa

0:46:37.800 --> 0:46:39.560
<v Speaker 11>Fe is seventy five thousand people, but we get a

0:46:39.640 --> 0:46:43.000
<v Speaker 11>million tourists a year, so that's an interesting microcosm.

0:46:43.080 --> 0:46:44.680
<v Speaker 4>People are still traveling, right, So I.

0:46:44.719 --> 0:46:49.520
<v Speaker 11>Think we've seen that people spent on goods in COVID,

0:46:49.560 --> 0:46:52.920
<v Speaker 11>and they're spending on experiences after COVID. Santa Fe is

0:46:52.920 --> 0:46:56.200
<v Speaker 11>a beneficiary of people traveling to a unique city, spending

0:46:56.280 --> 0:46:59.080
<v Speaker 11>some money, eating some great food, and then flying back home.

0:46:59.200 --> 0:47:02.200
<v Speaker 3>Do you see that? Does it? Anecdotally and based on

0:47:02.239 --> 0:47:05.279
<v Speaker 3>the people you speak to, the people who you live with,

0:47:05.440 --> 0:47:08.520
<v Speaker 3>I mean, are is this happening to the same extent

0:47:08.560 --> 0:47:11.400
<v Speaker 3>that it happened a year ago? Are people still spending

0:47:11.440 --> 0:47:12.120
<v Speaker 3>money like they were?

0:47:13.160 --> 0:47:15.359
<v Speaker 11>I think the high end consumer is still doing great.

0:47:15.760 --> 0:47:18.520
<v Speaker 3>I hear that a lot, Yeah, we do hear that

0:47:18.560 --> 0:47:19.120
<v Speaker 3>a lot. Yeah.

0:47:19.200 --> 0:47:21.680
<v Speaker 2>No, no, right, it's not everybody's enjoying.

0:47:21.800 --> 0:47:24.600
<v Speaker 3>And but you know, all one million people who visit

0:47:24.680 --> 0:47:26.200
<v Speaker 3>Santa Fe are not high end consumers.

0:47:26.560 --> 0:47:28.799
<v Speaker 11>I think the ones who are spending the most are

0:47:28.920 --> 0:47:30.799
<v Speaker 11>pretty high in consumers. I mean, if you've ever gone

0:47:30.800 --> 0:47:34.120
<v Speaker 11>our shopping in Santa Fe, it's it's pretty significantly price.

0:47:34.280 --> 0:47:36.080
<v Speaker 3>You don't have to buy something if you go our

0:47:36.160 --> 0:47:37.880
<v Speaker 3>toppy you can just look as well, which is what

0:47:37.920 --> 0:47:38.759
<v Speaker 3>I've done in Santa Fe.

0:47:39.040 --> 0:47:40.799
<v Speaker 11>But you know, on the other side, what we're seeing

0:47:40.880 --> 0:47:44.719
<v Speaker 11>is delinquencies or increasing among you know, lower income cohorts,

0:47:45.239 --> 0:47:47.759
<v Speaker 11>those that excess savings that we got from the from

0:47:47.800 --> 0:47:51.239
<v Speaker 11>the fiscal stimulus in COVID, there's still excess savings at

0:47:51.239 --> 0:47:53.600
<v Speaker 11>the high end. At the low end, it's pretty much

0:47:53.680 --> 0:47:56.640
<v Speaker 11>been spent and now people are trying to rack up

0:47:56.680 --> 0:47:57.040
<v Speaker 11>more depth.

0:47:57.120 --> 0:47:58.680
<v Speaker 2>You know, looking at some of your funds that you

0:47:58.760 --> 0:48:03.759
<v Speaker 2>are involved in managing, Thornberg Investment Income Builder Fund consistently

0:48:03.800 --> 0:48:06.080
<v Speaker 2>one of the top performing funds in its category. You've

0:48:06.120 --> 0:48:10.440
<v Speaker 2>got Thornberg Summit Fund also a now performer. I am

0:48:10.600 --> 0:48:15.560
<v Speaker 2>curious in terms of strategy, what's working. So I know,

0:48:15.640 --> 0:48:18.120
<v Speaker 2>different funds different I got it, but give us some

0:48:18.239 --> 0:48:19.879
<v Speaker 2>ideas of some of the strategies that are working.

0:48:19.920 --> 0:48:23.719
<v Speaker 11>So overall Thornberg we have we have eighty percent of

0:48:23.760 --> 0:48:25.919
<v Speaker 11>our assets through in four and five star funds, which

0:48:26.000 --> 0:48:29.839
<v Speaker 11>is really phenomenal. Sort of overall, you know, contribution front

0:48:29.840 --> 0:48:34.239
<v Speaker 11>from those portfolios. What's working this year? Income Builder is

0:48:34.280 --> 0:48:37.799
<v Speaker 11>working really well because even though we've we've talked about

0:48:37.800 --> 0:48:40.040
<v Speaker 11>the Magnificent seven and you know, those seven stocks driving

0:48:40.040 --> 0:48:44.279
<v Speaker 11>the entire market, actually our portfolio is up for the year.

0:48:44.680 --> 0:48:46.960
<v Speaker 11>You know, many DIFFERENTI paying stocks are down. Our portfolio

0:48:47.040 --> 0:48:50.759
<v Speaker 11>is still performed very strongly. And you know, I think

0:48:50.800 --> 0:48:53.720
<v Speaker 11>the fixed income is getting the most flows within our business.

0:48:53.840 --> 0:48:57.120
<v Speaker 11>Right So we have a Thornberg Strategic Income portfolio, which

0:48:57.160 --> 0:49:01.200
<v Speaker 11>is a multisector Bond yield to is about seven and

0:49:01.239 --> 0:49:03.600
<v Speaker 11>a half percent on that portfolio. So the argument is,

0:49:04.040 --> 0:49:06.360
<v Speaker 11>you get cash a five percent and that's great, but

0:49:06.520 --> 0:49:09.839
<v Speaker 11>duration is zero, it's gonna it's you know, it's it's

0:49:09.880 --> 0:49:12.319
<v Speaker 11>gonna have that aspect to it. Or you get seven

0:49:12.320 --> 0:49:15.520
<v Speaker 11>and a half percent in our strategic income portfolio with

0:49:15.640 --> 0:49:17.920
<v Speaker 11>duration of about three and a half four years. So

0:49:18.080 --> 0:49:20.200
<v Speaker 11>if we do go into recession or slow down, that

0:49:20.360 --> 0:49:22.319
<v Speaker 11>duration will be helpful. So I think that we're seeing

0:49:22.920 --> 0:49:26.600
<v Speaker 11>a lot of in uh interest in that portfolio, a

0:49:26.640 --> 0:49:29.480
<v Speaker 11>lot of flows, and it really makes a lot of sense.

0:49:29.320 --> 0:49:30.040
<v Speaker 2>For the market right now.

0:49:30.160 --> 0:49:31.560
<v Speaker 3>Were you not seeing flows.

0:49:32.080 --> 0:49:37.200
<v Speaker 11>We're not seeing nearly as many flows in active US equities.

0:49:37.800 --> 0:49:39.960
<v Speaker 11>I think that's true for the industry. You know that's

0:49:40.000 --> 0:49:41.960
<v Speaker 11>turned significantly passive.

0:49:42.280 --> 0:49:44.160
<v Speaker 2>Is that a mistake though, because we I'm trying to

0:49:44.160 --> 0:49:45.440
<v Speaker 2>think who was on, whether it was one of our

0:49:45.480 --> 0:49:48.080
<v Speaker 2>in house analysts or somebody who just again the focus

0:49:48.160 --> 0:49:51.919
<v Speaker 2>is so much on the outperformers, but so much whether

0:49:51.960 --> 0:49:53.720
<v Speaker 2>it's of the S and P five hundred or below

0:49:54.120 --> 0:49:56.440
<v Speaker 2>one hundred day two hundred day moving averages that haven't

0:49:56.520 --> 0:49:59.719
<v Speaker 2>really performed. And is that a mistake that if you

0:49:59.800 --> 0:50:02.879
<v Speaker 2>are actively managing you could really find some great opportunities.

0:50:03.200 --> 0:50:04.400
<v Speaker 11>I think it's a great opportunity.

0:50:04.440 --> 0:50:08.160
<v Speaker 2>So that was an assist, say thank you, that was

0:50:08.239 --> 0:50:08.640
<v Speaker 2>a setup.

0:50:09.480 --> 0:50:10.000
<v Speaker 7>It wasn't.

0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:10.560
<v Speaker 3>It wasn't.

0:50:10.640 --> 0:50:14.160
<v Speaker 11>So Look, the equal weight SMP is much more reasonably

0:50:14.280 --> 0:50:17.440
<v Speaker 11>value than the market CAPU weighted SMP. And also, if

0:50:17.440 --> 0:50:19.520
<v Speaker 11>you want to look at the evaluation of growth versus value,

0:50:20.520 --> 0:50:24.280
<v Speaker 11>that's at kind of all time historically interesting levels today.

0:50:24.360 --> 0:50:27.640
<v Speaker 11>So you know, if you do have an active portfolio.

0:50:28.080 --> 0:50:30.279
<v Speaker 11>You can pick individual securities. You don't have to be

0:50:30.760 --> 0:50:33.840
<v Speaker 11>crowding into the same seven to ten or twenty names.

0:50:34.680 --> 0:50:37.040
<v Speaker 11>There are a lot of a lot of stones turnover.

0:50:37.719 --> 0:50:43.239
<v Speaker 2>Where would you crowd into within that name sector spaces

0:50:43.800 --> 0:50:44.800
<v Speaker 2>that you think are interesting?

0:50:44.920 --> 0:50:47.160
<v Speaker 11>So I would, I would expand outside the US. Honestly,

0:50:47.800 --> 0:50:50.959
<v Speaker 11>I think I think the US market is expensive, even

0:50:51.040 --> 0:50:55.080
<v Speaker 11>on an equal weighted basis versus Europe, for example, where

0:50:55.120 --> 0:50:57.799
<v Speaker 11>you can buy a lot of really great companies at

0:50:57.920 --> 0:51:00.279
<v Speaker 11>seven times earnings, eight times earnings, you know, to ten

0:51:00.360 --> 0:51:04.440
<v Speaker 11>times joinings, and in the US it's twenty. So Europe

0:51:04.480 --> 0:51:07.960
<v Speaker 11>it's been a discount for a long time, it's a

0:51:08.080 --> 0:51:11.000
<v Speaker 11>bigger discount today. We think it's a really attractive opportunity.

0:51:11.280 --> 0:51:15.120
<v Speaker 11>And then dividend paying stocks more broadly, at a time

0:51:15.160 --> 0:51:17.919
<v Speaker 11>when we're in an interest rate normalization and the cost

0:51:17.960 --> 0:51:20.120
<v Speaker 11>of capital is going to be higher, we think that

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<v Speaker 11>will favor those big dominant companies that generate cash flow

0:51:25.200 --> 0:51:29.320
<v Speaker 11>as opposed to those earlier stage companies that need to

0:51:29.880 --> 0:51:31.720
<v Speaker 11>issue debt in equity to fund their business.

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<v Speaker 2>Sorry, I cut you.

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<v Speaker 3>That's okay, that's okay, Ben Kirby, great to catch up

0:51:36.440 --> 0:51:38.319
<v Speaker 3>with you. Co head of Investments in portfolio manager at

0:51:38.320 --> 0:51:41.400
<v Speaker 3>Thurnburg Investment Management. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. This

0:51:41.840 --> 0:51:42.680
<v Speaker 3>is Bloomberg Radio.

0:51:45.080 --> 0:51:48.880
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. I'll a little Apple,

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