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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our week thirteen, Thursday NFL episode we are

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Speaker 1: flying through this season. This is the episode where we

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Speaker 1: get feedback from the wise guys who listened to the show.

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Speaker 1: Simon was already previewing some of that for me before

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Speaker 1: we came out in the air. We will make our

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Speaker 1: survivor pick and build our money line Underdog Round Robin.

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Speaker 1: We will give out our Foxhole bet and our Big

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Speaker 1: Balls bet of the Week. We will also narrow down

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Speaker 1: our picks for the free to play Favorite Podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as

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Speaker 1: Colin Cowhard, our old buddy likes to say, there's a

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Speaker 1: sea money out.

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Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: Follow along with our official bets, you can check them

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Speaker 1: out on the contest website Favorites dot Action Network dot

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Speaker 1: com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you

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Speaker 1: can also track all the bets. Simon and I lock

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Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. It's time to bring in my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my capadre, my b ff. I will be

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Speaker 1: hugging him all day long on Sunday at our live

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Speaker 1: event Professional Better Simon Hunter Heado, soymen.

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Speaker 3: Hello Chet. Sometimes when you say my name, I hear

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Speaker 3: I just hear the Saturday Night Saturday Night Live skit

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Speaker 3: like hello, my name is Simon. That's where it comes from.

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Speaker 3: It is. It's funny every time you do it, pops

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Speaker 3: in my head.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly. It's like the most British name. My name

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Speaker 1: is Soymon. That's an old that's an old Mike Meyer

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Speaker 1: skid for those and he's uh, Simon, I like drawrings.

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Speaker 3: Hello, my name is Simon to do jewelry.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Sign before we get to

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Speaker 1: sharp calls. I want to remind people this is the

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Speaker 1: last chance to RSVP for the Favorites Live show December

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Speaker 1: third at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Beautiful Hoboken,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey. Enjoy the late afternoon games, then see us

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Speaker 1: record our Sunday recap show live and in person at

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Speaker 1: seven point thirty right before Sunday Night football Prizes, drinks,

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Speaker 1: warm embraces from Me and Simon, so much more, just

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Speaker 1: RSVP using the link in the episode description. I think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have to set a line on how long

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Speaker 1: after the show ends before Chad skidaddles and goes to bed. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I'm going with that because that'll be a long day

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Speaker 1: for us. Yeah, really long day, because We're gonna do

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Speaker 1: Convince Me live in the studio that morning, also presented

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Speaker 1: by BED three sixty five. I'm gonna get up very

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Speaker 1: early in Connecticut, take the train in, and then we

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Speaker 1: got a whole day of watching games. You're gonna be

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Speaker 1: drinking because we're gonna be watching the Eagles and the Niners,

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be stressful for both of us. And

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Speaker 1: then we got to do a show. I'm gonna be pooped.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be.

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Speaker 3: Fun for me. I got a client dinner Saturday night,

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Speaker 3: meeting with some big Times, taking me some nice steak dinner.

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Speaker 3: Wake up, go to breakfast, maybe with Chad. We'll see.

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Speaker 3: Then go do the show, do our live show, and

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Speaker 3: then I have another party. Think our live show int

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Speaker 3: at nine point thirty. Will take a cab or whatever

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Speaker 3: back to New York at ten and I have to

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Speaker 3: go to a party that started at like nine o'clock

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Speaker 3: that ends at one.

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Speaker 1: So what are you talking about? A party? A party?

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Speaker 3: I have friends outside of you chat you'd be shocked

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Speaker 3: to know. You'd be shocked to know this. But I'm

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Speaker 3: not much of a club scene guy. But what am

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Speaker 3: I doing here? It's like, how am I not going

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Speaker 3: to go out and party on a Sunday night. You

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Speaker 3: only live once, so it's gonna be a long day,

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Speaker 3: a lot, a lot of booze, and so I don't

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Speaker 3: know if people. People are telling me they're gonna keep me

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Speaker 3: shots at our event. I don't know if I can

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Speaker 3: do with people. I'm not much of a drinker, but

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Speaker 3: if you want to buy me a beer, I won't

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Speaker 3: say not. I'll drink a beer.

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Speaker 1: All right. Well, listen, Week thirteen kickoff is approaching. I

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Speaker 1: can't wait to see everybody. We've got opportunities all over

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Speaker 1: the board. No more dailly dallying. It's time for.

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Speaker 2: Sharp calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range.

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Speaker 4: Somebody saying, I'll start with just the ones I'm split

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Speaker 4: on and games I reevaluated just because I'm hearing from

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Speaker 4: other guys about it and obviously weigh their opinions heavily.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the Houston Texans in Denver. I liked Denver.

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Speaker 3: I thought I was getting a good number. The pros

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Speaker 3: like Houston. Man, they like Houston even at minus three

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Speaker 3: and a half. So interesting game there. Yeah, I thought

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Speaker 3: Denver's gonna be one of my bigger bets of the week.

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Speaker 3: The boys. They like Houston. They think they're being undervalue here,

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Speaker 3: so of course this game's gonna land right on three

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Speaker 3: and them. I feel like an idiot for not betting

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Speaker 3: this one, but for sure I'll take what they're saying.

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Speaker 3: I'll stay away from it from now. Another game is

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Speaker 3: split on that. I really like Tennessee Titans. Talked to

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Speaker 3: a couple of pros they like the Colts in this spot.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I think I feel like they're

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Speaker 3: putting too much on Minshew and not not drinking the

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Speaker 3: Verbel koolid enough. Like Raybel just gets disrespected all the time,

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Speaker 3: and this just feels like a disrespected Rabel spot where

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Speaker 3: he's still a dog.

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Speaker 1: You and I will talk about this more because I'm

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Speaker 1: with you. Fucking love the Titans here.

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Speaker 3: Me too, love the Titans. A couple guys like the Saints.

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Speaker 3: I can't get there. I just I don't care if

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Speaker 3: their car is acting super tough in the media room.

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Speaker 3: The dude's terrible in the reds He's just horrible. And

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Speaker 3: there's gonna be points in this game, So you know,

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Speaker 3: this could be the classic Taysom Hill game. Where somehow

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Speaker 3: he shows up and he's the reason this game is close.

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Speaker 3: But my minus four still, how do you not take Detroit? Now?

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Speaker 3: It makes sense why it stayed at four to four

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Speaker 3: and a half because the pros are the ones coming

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Speaker 3: in hitting this down. They like the Saints, they like

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Speaker 3: him at home in this spot. Unless Detroit's broken and

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Speaker 3: Golf is broken, this number does not make sense to me.

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Speaker 3: And I feel like they're betting on Golf being broken

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Speaker 3: because he's had two back to back really bad performances

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Speaker 3: and he's kind of reverted back to those old ways

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Speaker 3: of not taking what the defense gives him. He's trying

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Speaker 3: to force in passes and it's not working. Like he's

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Speaker 3: turning over the ball. I mean, back to back games,

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Speaker 3: multiple turnovers. That's the old Golf. Another team they like Panthers.

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Speaker 3: You're never going to talk me into it, so I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna waste my breath on it. I'm with you, this

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Speaker 3: is this is the one Chad wants to get to.

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Speaker 3: A couple pros calling up and joked about what Chad

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Speaker 3: knew and asked me what Chad knows about Cleveland? Because

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Speaker 3: Chad was so animated and was so confident taking Cleveland

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Speaker 3: just two days ago, and now we're getting worded that's

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacco is going to be the starting quarterback. Amazing

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Speaker 3: stat from Evan Joe Flacco one and ten straight up

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Speaker 3: and his last eleven starts pretty incredible. I think they're

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Speaker 3: with Chad, but they're kind of It was kind of

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Speaker 3: more like a jokie call where it's like, who is

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Speaker 3: betting Cleveland this week other than their professionals, right, Like

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Speaker 3: who is going to be betting Cleveland? My pushback is,

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Speaker 3: how do you make a number on this when it's

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacco? Like, who has the right number for this

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Speaker 3: game when it's Joe Flacco? Vegas thinks they do. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they hung this number early, and they've hung it all

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Speaker 3: week and they've been taking money all week. I went

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Speaker 3: in and bet on the Rams, no limit, like they

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Speaker 3: took them money, which made me even more scared and

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Speaker 3: more confident, right because it was like, what you're okay

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Speaker 3: with taking these bets on the Rams at this number?

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Speaker 3: So weird? That number is not Budge, But the pros

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Speaker 3: that they agree with Chad. They think Cleveland's the sharp side.

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Speaker 3: They see this game ended on a three. It feels risky,

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Speaker 3: but once again, that's that's like betting on Joe flaccom

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Speaker 3: Me and Chad had been there many of times, and

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Speaker 3: it looks like we're back in twenty twenty three. Been

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Speaker 3: on Flaco for the last one or I guess two

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Speaker 3: the last ones real quick, Green Bay. They love the bet.

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Speaker 3: They thought, like Chad, I think you brought up that

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Speaker 3: I should have made that. My Simon says, had multiple

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Speaker 3: pro say why didn't you make it that your bet?

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Speaker 3: Like that's that was never going to stay at six

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Speaker 3: and a half. Some books might still the six and

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Speaker 3: a half. I'm seeing most books now at six, so.

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Speaker 1: I don't see it anywhere it's been. It's been locked

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Speaker 1: at six for more than twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: And this to me is the definition of pros rustows.

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Speaker 3: All the teasers, the money line parlays. So say, I've

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Speaker 3: talked to five different book makers now that I'm home,

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Speaker 3: which is I've missed so much going from the books,

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Speaker 3: just talking to people being in the books. All the teasers,

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Speaker 3: every teaser they've gotten so far, say three team teaser,

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Speaker 3: two team teasers. It's all Chiefs, Chargers and cowboys. They

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Speaker 3: can't stop getting all these teasers. So, I mean, last

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Speaker 3: week they had the biggest break they could get with

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Speaker 3: Detroit losing and that early slate, and that destroyed so

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Speaker 3: many teasers. They could get it this Thursday if somehow

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys don't cover a three and a half. Three

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Speaker 3: numbers so pretty interesting. So many people are all in

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Speaker 3: on this Chiefs team just after one good game. Really,

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Speaker 3: I honestly thought the Packers would be a public dog

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Speaker 3: just because they played so well in a standalone game

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Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving. Interesting that they don't. They don't buy it.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's on the Chiefs, even though this number keeps dropping

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Speaker 3: and the last one mean chedd are gonna talk a

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Speaker 3: bunch about the pros. People already know the pros. They

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Speaker 3: love the forty nine ers. They've moved the number. It's

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Speaker 3: up to three. I don't know a single pro that's

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Speaker 3: taken the three. They've all taken in the one, the two,

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Speaker 3: and the two and a half. None of them are

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Speaker 3: touching the three. I've heard some buyback on the three.

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Speaker 3: If you got the forty nine ers at minus one,

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Speaker 3: if you got them the plus one, you got a

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Speaker 3: great middle opportunity here. So if you've been waiting to

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Speaker 3: know what the pros have been doing in this game.

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Speaker 3: I think ninety percent got a good number on the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers and they're just gonna hold on it,

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Speaker 3: and I believe the public at this point. To me, again,

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Speaker 3: I have no idea what the public will do with this.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna end up taking the Eagles. And

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Speaker 3: as an Eagles fan, if this doesn't go below two

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Speaker 3: and a half, it feels like we're dead. Like it

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Speaker 3: feels like as an egles better in a backer, like

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Speaker 3: the books know something here. They don't move five points

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Speaker 3: without professional money and not set people up. So everyone

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Speaker 3: out there, if you're just you know, an average better

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Speaker 3: and you're like, how is a team with one loss

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Speaker 3: at home that's only lost one game in two years

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Speaker 3: at home a three point underdog? The books they know

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Speaker 3: what they're doing. They're trying to set people up here.

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Speaker 3: But I'm still not gonna let it scare me off.

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Speaker 1: Chat.

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Speaker 3: If it's three three and a half in our contest,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be hard for me to pass on that

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Speaker 3: number because Lane Johnson, like, I've talked to multiple people

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Speaker 3: and they say he's gonna play, and that's a big

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Speaker 3: deal to me. Like that to me, once he gets cleared,

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Speaker 3: I could see this number move off the three. I

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Speaker 3: could see it move half a point to two and

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Speaker 3: a half and close the two and a half comes Sunday.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll go against my brethren because again, I

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Speaker 3: might know a handful of pros that've taken the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: but it's only a plus three and it's mainly just

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Speaker 3: to kind of get the middle position. It's really not

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Speaker 3: confidently betting this Eagles team.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, that's been kind. That's been the line of

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Speaker 1: demarcation here. Yeah, totally all right, this is this is good.

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Speaker 1: We got a lot of stuff to dig in on

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Speaker 1: because I have so many thoughts on these games and

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Speaker 1: what the sharps are saying and what you're saying, and

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Speaker 1: how we're gonna end up to five and that San

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Speaker 1: Francisco Philly game is the most exciting game we've had

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Speaker 1: all year. As a reminder, catch every episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For I was enjoying on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. I mean, we got a

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Speaker 1: narrow down our picks and our games and get to

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Speaker 1: the fox hole and the big balls and survivor and etc.

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Speaker 1: At this point, I've made fewer bets during the week

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Speaker 1: than I have all year because these lines haven't moved

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Speaker 1: very much other than that Eagles Niners game. And I

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Speaker 1: cannot believe we're gonna have to sweat that game with

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Speaker 1: a group of our hundreds of our closest friends on

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Speaker 1: Saturday afternoon on Sunday afternoon, and then we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to go right into the podcast afterwards. So first game up, Detroit,

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Speaker 1: four point favorites. You like this a lot. Early in

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Speaker 1: the week, you were getting nervous that it wasn't moving

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Speaker 1: off of four. You didn't understand why it wasn't moving

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Speaker 1: off of four. It went to four and a half,

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Speaker 1: went immediately back down to four. Not surprising that it

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved more and sooner. Detroit is the total bets

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Speaker 1: on Detroit eight. That's the highest for any team this season. No,

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Speaker 1: eighty two percent is the highest for any team this season.

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Speaker 1: Detroit is at eighty six percent as of Wednesday night.

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Speaker 1: So we're looking at a scenario where we've got eighty

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Speaker 1: percent or more on the road favorite, which tends to

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Speaker 1: be a good spot for the Dogs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, almost every almost every time, this is like the

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Speaker 3: time to take the dog. So yeah, it makes you

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Speaker 3: nervous where It's like I wanted to put this at

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Speaker 3: one our five and maybe I'll just avoid it just

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Speaker 3: because I know that the Pros got a bunch of

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Speaker 3: guys I talk to. They love the Saints at four

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Speaker 3: to four and a half, and they're happy to back

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Speaker 3: this defense at home here, and I just I'm just

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Speaker 3: not seeing it, Like I can't see the reason to

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Speaker 3: take the Saints here just because offensively, I think Detroit

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Speaker 3: is so far ahead of them, even if Detroit's defense

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Speaker 3: is terrible. And yes, this could be a great get

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Speaker 3: right spot for Derek Carr and this offense because they

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Speaker 3: got the talent. I mean we talk all the time,

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Speaker 3: like between the twenties, they can move the ball up

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Speaker 3: and down the field. They got Kamara alve it like

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Speaker 3: they have all these great weapons. But I can't. I

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Speaker 3: can't get there.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 3: It's just I had this number way bigger, and you

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Speaker 3: know this is maybe I'm just misreading this game and

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Speaker 3: I haven't adjusted enough to Detroit because maybe I overrated

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Speaker 3: Detroit this point. And I talked early in the season,

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Speaker 3: I moved them whatever a couple of weeks ago, I

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Speaker 3: moved them above the Cowboys and probably should adjust it. Right,

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys are clearly a better team than them, more

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Speaker 3: complete team, just because defensively they can get stops where

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Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like Detroit's defense can get the stops

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Speaker 3: right now, like their secondary is really suspect. And last

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Speaker 3: year they fired their dB coach and it flipped their

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Speaker 3: whole season, like all of a sudden, their defense completely

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Speaker 3: changed after firing, and I think what they went nine

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Speaker 3: to one down the stretch something crazy like that. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: then the season. I was surprised they didn't fire the

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Speaker 3: dB coach after that Green Bay game, like I thought

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Speaker 3: they were going to make some type of move because

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Speaker 3: it's getting away from him here right like, and then this,

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Speaker 3: if they lose this game, that one seed is totally

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Speaker 3: gone like that that that is totally gone here And

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Speaker 3: this would be the biggest one of the season for

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Speaker 3: the Saints, just because just like me, everyone's pounce once

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Speaker 3: for a loss. So a game I really don't know

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Speaker 3: what to deal with, because like I want to take Detroit.

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Speaker 3: My model says take Detroit. But the pros and even

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Speaker 3: Chad just talked about this Situationally, I usually love taking

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Speaker 3: dogs here in this spot, so might end up just

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Speaker 3: avoiding this one altogether.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's also interesting to me beyond the defensive issues.

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Speaker 1: I just think strategically the game plan for Dan Campbell, who,

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Speaker 1: for all his risk taking and decision making, he's very

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Speaker 1: strategic about his risk taking and very conservative for lack

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Speaker 1: of a better term about his risk taking. He doesn't win.

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Speaker 1: The percentages are to his advantage, and he's just willing

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Speaker 1: to do it every time.

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Speaker 3: Every week it's different and you don't know what it's

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Speaker 3: going to take.

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Speaker 1: Do not ever feel bad about a win, man.

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Speaker 3: They're too hard to come by, and we will accept it.

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Speaker 1: He is an analytically minded coach, but I think he

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Speaker 1: also is a brilliant football coach, and he knows his

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Speaker 1: quarterback has been struggling and making a lot of mistakes,

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Speaker 1: and that they have a powerhouse offensive line, they have

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Speaker 1: a powerhouse, dynamic rhythm in Brews backfield, and this is

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Speaker 1: an opportunity for him to run the ball down the

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Speaker 1: throat of a defense that is not very good in

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Speaker 1: this situation. So it just might be a close game

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Speaker 1: by virtual of the fact that they're going to have

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Speaker 1: a conservative play calling strategy by running the ball a lot.

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Speaker 1: I think Detroit's going to win the game. I think

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Speaker 1: they're a much better team. I don't think we want

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Speaker 1: to back New Orleans in any scenario. So it's Detroit

340
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Speaker 1: or nothing. And it's just a question of do we

341
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Speaker 1: feel good about the number and what if someone know

342
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Speaker 1: that we're not thinking about, which probably takes it off

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Speaker 1: the list because it makes us nervous.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's just it. I no longer see that

345
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Speaker 3: being as the favorite we will take in the contest,

346
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Speaker 3: like there's other favorites. Like I'd even rather take the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers at two and a half than take

348
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Speaker 3: this Detroit team, because at least with the forty nine ers,

349
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Speaker 3: it's like they're playing their best football right now, like

350
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Speaker 3: Detroit they're not.

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Speaker 1: So look, we're gonna talk about the Niners because I'm

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Speaker 1: in love with this team, and I'm in love with

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Speaker 1: this side. Up to three at the two and a half,

354
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Speaker 1: and so we're gonna we're gonna have to get there.

355
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Speaker 1: But I want to save that Atlanta at the New

356
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Speaker 1: York Jets. So this number was at three, it got

357
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Speaker 1: down to two and a half. It's gone back and forth,

358
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Speaker 1: and I still feel like the Jets are the right

359
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 1: side here. I'm surprised there wasn't a conversation and sharp

360
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,880
Speaker 1: calls about the Jets a little.

361
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Speaker 3: Bit, but no one's putting big money on it because

362
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 3: I think everyone has the same view as me. Is

363
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Speaker 3: the fear is this team as quick like that's the

364
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 3: fear and the big motivator though, is Rogers came back,

365
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Speaker 3: and I'm hoping that might be the spark they needed,

366
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 3: right seeing him back out there, because that's why I

367
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Speaker 3: think he came back, Like I assumed he was probably

368
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Speaker 3: gonna come back in another week or two, but he

369
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Speaker 3: just moved it up because they see it's slipping away.

370
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Speaker 3: Like everyone anyone that's played football or watches football, he

371
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Speaker 3: kind of consensed these things with teams. And the Jets

372
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 3: are four and seven that game. I mean that they

373
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Speaker 3: were in it, they should have probably beat Miami or

374
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Speaker 3: at least made it more competitive. But you throw a

375
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Speaker 3: ninety nine yard hell Mary picked six that just totally

376
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,760
Speaker 3: sucked the air out of that team, Like you got

377
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Speaker 3: the turnover, you had to pick six, and then you

378
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Speaker 3: have your own pick six. Just devastating to them. So

379
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 3: look at this one chat. I'm right there with you.

380
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,199
Speaker 3: It's like, I love the Jets. We're going to Atlanta

381
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 3: outdoors after a huge divisional win at home, Like, how

382
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 3: do we not take the Jets in the spot?

383
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,640
Speaker 1: How do we know? I was just simon, we have

384
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Speaker 1: to do what we know is right. Big balls though

385
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Speaker 1: even yes, it's that or fossil.

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Speaker 3: Let's make it. No, this is definitely big balls.

387
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Speaker 1: This takes balls, big ball better the week Ne York Jets.

388
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: Here we go. We have to yeah, we have to.

389
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Speaker 1: Let me give you three stats from Evan. The Falcons

390
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 1: four twelve and one against spread after a win under

391
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith. Owing for this season Arthur Smith the last

392
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 1: twenty years, Evan, is this profitability or is this connected

393
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 1: to the statue just gave me? Can you tell me

394
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: in the chat? Profit Okay, the last twenty years, he

395
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: ranks one hundred and thirty fifth out of one hundred

396
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 1: and forty three coaches in terms of profitability, dead to

397
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 1: last of the forty nine coaches since he was hired

398
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Okay, number one, Number two teams

399
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: to lose by twenty fours or more of the previous week.

400
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 1: The Jets facing a team who didn't the Falcons sixty

401
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. Those three teams

402
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 1: were bet we already like one of them Washington, We're

403
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: going to take the other one New York Jets. The

404
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: third is Arizona, which I might want to. I might

405
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 1: want to. I might want to try to convince you

406
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 1: on Arizona. But so the Jets like we're doing the

407
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 1: right thing.

408
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 3: Again, I have no read on their quarterback position, but

409
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: just looking at both teams, neither team as a quarterback

410
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 3: really right. So it's like we're kind of betting on

411
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 3: the skill.

412
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Speaker 1: Give me the better defense at home outside.

413
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Speaker 3: That's a big thing to me. It's you're going a

414
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 3: good defense at home in a game that again Rogers

415
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 3: is back this week. They know that if they don't

416
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 3: win this one, basically the season is over. So I'm

417
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 3: happy to take the Jets you in the spot.

418
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 1: One more thing, I think the total in this is

419
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: like thirty three thirty four totals of thirty seven or

420
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: less or now twenty two four and one to the under.

421
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty, uh thirty eight or less thirty two

422
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,679
Speaker 1: to eleven and one to the under. So I might

423
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 1: want to bet the under in this one too. Yeah,

424
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: India Tennessee. Oh my god, I can't believe we love

425
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: the Jets and we're going to make him one of

426
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: our five. Here's what I would say, though, Matt Mitchell, Simon,

427
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 1: can I get a reading on this? This line's at

428
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Speaker 1: two and a half. I think it's very possible it

429
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: goes back up to three. Can we say that this

430
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: is our big balls, but we'd like to take it

431
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: at three if it gets back to three. Can I

432
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: get a judgment on that? Not how it works, big dog,

433
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 1: not how it works, Matt Mitchell.

434
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, right now it's it's minus one twenty minus two

435
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 3: and a half Atlanta on bet three six five. So yeah,

436
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 3: like we're right there for the three, but technically, Chad,

437
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 3: it is two and a half.

438
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: Brother, Well, I just want every want to know. I'm

439
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,239
Speaker 1: waiting until it gets back to three to officially bet. I. Well,

440
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: let you know it's not gonna matter. Matt Mitchell is

441
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: such a dick sometimes, even Indianapolis at Tennessee, you and

442
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: I love the Titans here. As of Tuesday, this was

443
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets since the pod has been reported.

444
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor will be out. I'm actually surprised that the

445
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 1: number hasn't moved because it was at one and a

446
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: half one and really hasn't moved off. For that, I

447
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 1: don't know why anyone likes the culture.

448
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: That's good for us though, because if it flipped to

449
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 3: them being a favorite chat we would have getten scared

450
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 3: off because we hate that stat about dogs favorites. Yeah,

451
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the action apper. Now only one book

452
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 3: hasn't at minus one and a half. The rest is

453
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: that minus one, So this is gonna easily flip. Nothing

454
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 3: changed for me. We always played Tennessee in this spot,

455
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 3: we live and die with it. We're fading a backup

456
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: quarterback on the road against a Rabel led defense. How

457
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 3: can we not take this like it's just you're a

458
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 3: fan of this show, you live and die with us.

459
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 3: This is it's just like us take in Pittsburgh just

460
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 3: about every week. It's like you got to ride with

461
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: these certain picks. And we don't always back Tennessee blindly.

462
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,479
Speaker 3: Especially this year. We've done really well buying in on them,

463
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 3: then fading them, buying in on them and then fading them,

464
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: And to me, this is a byspot. So I'm right

465
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 3: there with you, Chad. Like Levis versus banged up Colts secondary,

466
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 3: I think he could have an actually big game, Like

467
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 3: this is a good match up for him passing wise,

468
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: So as long as we're not getting some tsunami terrible

469
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 3: weather actually, and that might even help us even more.

470
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 3: Was gonna say more, But the only thing that may

471
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: gives me any type of policy here is Chad knows.

472
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: I just I had zero faith right now this guy

473
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 3: Will Levis. But it's it's more bet On Varibel and

474
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,239
Speaker 3: this defense at home catching points against a team that

475
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 3: they've been great, the Colts this year. I mean incredible

476
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 3: to be six and five with the backup quarterback, you know,

477
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: forst year head coach. But these are the kind of

478
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 3: spots that these teams just don't win. Like if they

479
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 3: win this game, then congrats to the Colts, like they're

480
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 3: probably going to be that seventh seed the playoffs. This

481
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 3: is usually a scheduled loss, so not shocking. The public

482
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 3: is all over the Colts here in the pros they

483
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 3: like Tennessee or so Pros vs. Shows game. We're going

484
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: to back the Pros here every time.

485
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: Two stats that I'm stealing from Chris Raybund, who also

486
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: talked about this on the Sunday six Pack with Stuckey

487
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: who Tennessee. He like Tennessee weeks one through six with

488
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: defensive tackle Grover Stewart in the lineup for the Colts.

489
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 3: I love and death research from Chris. This is amazing.

490
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: He's the fucking best fourteenth in EPA without Grover Stewart,

491
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: who's been out of the lineup because of a PUD

492
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 1: suspension thirty first. Meanwhile, Tennessee's run defense number two according

493
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: to DVA, So there is an opportunity here, Like you

494
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: just said, take the ball out of Levis's hands, give

495
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: it to Derrick Henry, make it a shorter game.

496
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: And that's what they did last week against Carolina. They're like, well,

497
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 3: let Carolina make mistakes. We'll just play our game of

498
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 3: giving the ball to Derek and on the law the

499
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 3: three downs, that's when we'll have will throw, but we

500
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 3: won't make him the focal point. And liked I just

501
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 3: said it right there. Like Tennessee's run defense, they are

502
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 3: really good. Their past defense is terrible.

503
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons is just a baller.

504
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, so take away, make make Minshew beat you. I

505
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 3: mean I am more than happy to make Minshew have

506
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 3: to throw the ball on the road outdoors. So I'm

507
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 3: right there with you, Chad. Just we loved that and

508
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 3: seeing the spot, and that gives me a little bit more.

509
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: Confident in it all right right now, the quarterbacks were

510
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: betting on Tim Boyle and Will Levis moving on Miami

511
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: at Washington. This was Simon says Washington plus nine and

512
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: a half. I'm a little worried about this one, only

513
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: because it's becoming a public dog in the same way

514
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: we were on the Raiders last week and it was

515
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,880
Speaker 1: a public dog, and you know, Sam Howell is having

516
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: one of those blow them up kind of years. I

517
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 1: do think that the Commander's offense is good and they've

518
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 1: got opportunities to score, but their defense is so bad

519
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,719
Speaker 1: that it's gonna They're gonna have to score every time

520
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: they have the ball in order to keep up with

521
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. So I'm a little I bet it. I'm

522
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: a little antsy about it.

523
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're literally the worst defense against balls that travel

524
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 3: more than twenty yards downfield. And what does Miami want

525
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 3: to do? They want to push the ball downfield to

526
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 3: They're really fast receivers, so your balls make sense, chat,

527
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 3: but it's make you feel little better. Supposed get some

528
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: bad weather, some wind, some rain in Washington for this game, hopefully,

529
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: I like it. Yeah, that that helps us. I'm now

530
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 3: looking at one of the more public books out there

531
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: that give out their numbers. They have eighty percent of

532
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 3: the bets seventy nine percent of the money right now

533
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 3: in Miami.

534
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: So oh that's good.

535
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: Right, So that's It's definitely depends on the books you're

536
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 3: looking at it. I like checking the most public book

537
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: because it really is a great Again, this book takes

538
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: zero professional money. All they're taking is public money. So

539
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: it's nice to see that it's eighty eighty pretty much

540
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: on Miami here. But yeah, the reason we're taking commanders

541
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 3: is just the offense. Like in what I would expect

542
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 3: to be a back and forth game, I think the

543
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 3: offensive Washington stay in it. And just looking at this

544
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: matchup defensively, people are going to be like, well, look

545
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 3: how different Miami's been since, you know, Jalen Ramsey came back,

546
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: which is true, Like if you just go and watch

547
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 3: their defense and how they play, right when he came back,

548
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 3: they basically made him half the field, right, they did

549
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 3: the Rebus treatment. They're like, you know what, Ramsey half

550
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 3: this field, jurors will let Howard and whoever else work

551
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 3: on the other side of you. And you know, somehow

552
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 3: it's been working. And when I went back and looked

553
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 3: about why it's been working, let's have a little peak here.

554
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 3: They played the Eagles and they lost seventeen thirty one,

555
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: and Ramsey came back the next week, right, I think

556
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 3: they went to Germany played the Patriots. I'm pretty sure

557
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 3: that's what happened, right, They won thirty one seventy oh. No,

558
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: Then they played the Chiefs in Jerremany. Sorry, they beat

559
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 3: the Chiefs fourteen twenty one, had their bye week, then

560
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 3: they played the Vegas and the Jets. So in their

561
00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:01,120
Speaker 3: last four games, they played mac Jones terrible. They lost

562
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: them a homes by seven points. You know, can't fault

563
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 3: them for that. Then they beat Aidan O'Connell twenty to thirteen,

564
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 3: and then they beat the Jets thirty four to thirteen.

565
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: It's like they really haven't faced a good quarterback, right,

566
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,959
Speaker 3: they kind of When they have played good quarterbacks, these

567
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 3: good quarterbacks tend to play well against them. So I

568
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 3: don't know how good Sam. How is I know he's

569
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 3: not worse than Aid O'Connell and these other guys. They've

570
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 3: kind of beat here these last couple of weeks. So

571
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 3: we'll see Miami's defense. People say they've improved. This is

572
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 3: a good test, Like Eric Lenamy runs an incredible offense.

573
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 3: Sam Houise played really well on the offense. We'll see

574
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 3: which one breaks first. But yeah, if we wake up Sunday,

575
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: Chain and you're just like, I can't do it. I

576
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: can't put Washington in, I'm not going to fight. You're

577
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: on it, but I'm in on it. I've taken the

578
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 3: number like most I was hoping I was going to

579
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: get to ten. I just knew him back in my

580
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 3: mind that was never really going to get there. And yeah,

581
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: now that we've seen some pros come in on Miami,

582
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 3: this could get ten by Sunday. If you want to

583
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: keep waiting, you can. I just thought all the pros

584
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 3: coming on this number just because we're getting a Miami

585
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: team that's a little overrated outdoors on the road in

586
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 3: bad weather. I'm shocked this number has gone up.

587
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: By the way, Washington another one of those teams big

588
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: loss the week before facing the team that didn't sixty

589
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. Arizona Washington Jets

590
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: Big Home Dogs are on a run right now, home

591
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: dogs of seven or more since twenty twenty, covering about

592
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 1: I'd say close to sixty percent against the spread out

593
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: of one hundred games. They are fifty nine wins and

594
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: twenty one to nine and one against the spread since

595
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: the start of the year, since the start of last year,

596
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: So percentages are on our side.

597
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, we usually so, like, yeah, long term, this spot's

598
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 3: been good to us people.

599
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: So right now New Jersey, New York Jets, Tennessee, Washington,

600
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: and I don't know, for some reason, we.

601
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 3: Gotta find a favorite brother fin of favorite.

602
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get there. The last game we

603
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: want to talk about before we get to the game

604
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: that we want to talk about, Kansas City at Green Bay.

605
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you talked a little bit about it. But

606
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: what's worrying me is this is becoming one of those

607
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: games where all the wise guys love Green Bay because

608
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: they think they're seeing something in Jordan Love. You did

609
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: your favorite film room about Jordan Love and his performance

610
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: and progression EPA per play, expected points per play, amongst

611
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: QBS since week seven, Jordan Love is ninth, Mahomes is tenth.

612
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: Jordan Love ranks inside the top five of EPA success

613
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: rate since week nine, top five offensive line and every metric.

614
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: The Packers right now, the Chiefs unders are eleven or

615
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: zero this season in the second half. So like, this

616
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: is not a team score a lot of points. It's

617
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: not a team overachieving on offense. Again, it's a Green

618
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: Bay team that is starting to play a lot better.

619
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: So you know, reasons why everyone loves green Bay and

620
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: why we're probably going to put him in the contest.

621
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I push it back against people keep saying

622
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: that the Chiefs maybe they figured out God are right,

623
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 3: was It's always tough to judges teams after they played

624
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: divisional games, right, because you know, maybe Mahomes just has

625
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 3: their number, right, the Raiders' number, and maybe just has

626
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 3: the Chargers number. And if you go look at their

627
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 3: schedule this year, when they played the Chargers October twenty second,

628
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: they won thirty one seventeen. I remember everyone's kept saying, well,

629
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: it looks like Mahomes figured out the offense again, right,

630
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: He's kind of got his groove back. The next week

631
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 3: they put up nine points against Denver, so again all

632
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 3: the questions came back. The following week, they got totally

633
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: shut out in the second half against Miami. They won

634
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: twenty one to fourteen, and then they played the Eagles,

635
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 3: and then they just again played Vegas. They put up

636
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 3: thirty one again, so it's like, did they figure it

637
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 3: out offensively or did they just play against a divisional

638
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 3: opponent again, So I'm trying to not overreact to it

639
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: where I'm with people where it's like, this does feel

640
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: like the public, not public, but the pro's dog of

641
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 3: the week, Like every probably talk dude, like Chad just

642
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 3: said they like Green Bay. Here. I didn't hear a

643
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 3: single guy say he's on the Chiefs. But when I

644
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 3: went to the books and made bets, I told you

645
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: had every guy I talked to, all the bookmakers, it's

646
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 3: all Chiefs money. On teasers, parlays, moneyline parlays, it's all

647
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: Chiefs money. So there's always one of these games every

648
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: week that just gets broken up. I don't know if

649
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: I'll be this one, but I feel confident that if

650
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 3: the Chiefs do win, it won't be by more than

651
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: six points. So like I do think six such a

652
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 3: key number. It sucks if you miss the six and

653
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 3: a half, but I would grab the six, like you're

654
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 3: not missing any real value. I still think that's such

655
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 3: a key number. So yeah, we've seen it this year.

656
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 3: This this Chiefs team doesn't have the weapon that can

657
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 3: blow teams out with right. I mean, I'm looking at

658
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: their schedule right now. They have one really big blowout

659
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: win and that was again it's the Bears in Week

660
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 3: three they won forty one to ten. It's just the

661
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 3: rest of their games for the most part, have been

662
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 3: really close this year. So that biggest game, Man, we

663
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: were in it that whole game and then.

664
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: It just kind of fell freaking game.

665
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 3: I don't see green Bay having that same kind of

666
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 3: falling apart in this game. Like it feels like green

667
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: Bay the way they've been playing, how they're playing down

668
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: the stretch here, they've just been getting better every week.

669
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, it could. I apologize at a time people

670
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 3: if this doesn't hit for us just because we are

671
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: buying a little high on green Bay here, Like I'm

672
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 3: not gonna lie to you. It's we're back in a

673
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: team here that, like Chad just said, they're they're a

674
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 3: favorite of everyone like we got them plus seven Sunday night.

675
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: They've moved down to six now here on Thursday. So

676
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: clearly the pros have been hitting this one. But I

677
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: still think we're getting good value, and it's just if

678
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 3: we can get six and a half in the contest.

679
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: I just don't know how we don't play it. It's

680
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 3: just such a key number and a matchup where I

681
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 3: just see it being a close game.

682
00:33:56,440 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: The I didn't see Evan stat because I was looking

683
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: for a different one.

684
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: Mahomes losses. Sorry, Ten of mahomes twelve losses as the

685
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 3: start of twenty twenty one are outside the division, so

686
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 3: not a shock.

687
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: Well, I wanted to make a point about what you

688
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: just said about sort of lack of big plays and

689
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: targets for Mahomes. Anthony Dubundo, one of our writers, does

690
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: a great column every week sort of and identifying pass

691
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: lean pick for every game on the NFL slate. He

692
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: had this stat. He's also betting the Packers and also

693
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: targeting the second half under for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes

694
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 1: dropped back thirty one times against the Raiders, only four

695
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: targets to non Rashi Rice wideouts. It's all about backs

696
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: and tight ends, and we lost that game because the

697
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: Raiders were passive, not because Kansas City had any great

698
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: sort of offensive breakthrough. I thought that was a really

699
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 1: good stat from from Anthony. So yeah, we'll be on

700
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: We'll be on Green Bay. So right now, right now,

701
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: there's two games that I think I still want to

702
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 1: talk about Jets Tennessee, Green Bay Washington. I want to

703
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: convince you of Arizona. I think it's the wise guy play.

704
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 1: We got two games that are sort of blinking bright

705
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: red in the luck rankings, with both which you and

706
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 1: I both love. One of them is Arizona. And I

707
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 1: feel like the market is so overvaluing the Steelers because

708
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: they had one good offensive game against a team that

709
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: is in turmoil, and all of a sudden, this line

710
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: exploded by more than two points from the look ahead

711
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: from three to five and a half. It feels like

712
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Tomlin as a favorite of

713
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: more than a field goals just thirty seven percent in

714
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: his career. It's the luck rankings dogs off the loss

715
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: of twenty or more sixty percent covered the next week.

716
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 1: It just feels like we're missing an opportunity here.

717
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I told you. My pushback in my fear is

718
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 3: just they can't stop the run, the Cardinals and Pittsburgh.

719
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 3: The only thing they can do well is run the

720
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 3: ball like they have a two really dominant, two headed back.

721
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 3: So the bros are with you, I tell you that much.

722
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: Like I talked to a couple of guys. They liked

723
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 3: the Cardinals too, but it's just not one of their

724
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 3: bigger bets. It's like they're kind of playing the spot

725
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,879
Speaker 3: like you just talked about, but they're betting with zero

726
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 3: confidence or like the argument again is you're taking a

727
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 3: little Kyler Murray out on the outside in the cold.

728
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 3: Probably not the best spot to take this kid who's

729
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 3: just not played well in these kind of positions. So

730
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 3: I don't know. I view it as you're right, this

731
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 3: number fields inflated. It's the same reason I took Arizona

732
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago against Houston. It was like the

733
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 3: number felt too big. Probably one of my luckiest bets

734
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 3: of the year. I think it literally landed on five.

735
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: So it did. Can we hit? Should we? I mean

736
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,040
Speaker 3: play the odds chat and do it again? Where this

737
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 3: game is going to land on five? Because that's what

738
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 3: the book's telling you right now, like the money was

739
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 3: pouring in on Pittsburgh at six, moved down to five

740
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 3: and a half and the first line move yes, So

741
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: pretty telling the books here. They're not scared of Pittsburgh money.

742
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 3: They're happy to take it right now. They are with

743
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: you in alignment. They like the Cardinals here too. So

744
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,760
Speaker 3: you can't get me there right now, Chad, but maybe

745
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: three days from now I could be talked into it.

746
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 3: I just I want the six and a half on

747
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. That's my biggest thing. It's like if it's

748
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 3: six and a half in contest, I like it a

749
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 3: five and a half. It just makes me a little

750
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 3: uneasy just because I just don't really trust this team

751
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 3: here outdoors, and as the weeks have gone on, I've

752
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 3: had less and less confidence in their coaching staff as well,

753
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: Like they just I don't think they've made great adjustments. Defensively,

754
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 3: they have not made good adjustments, and then you just

755
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 3: go through it. It's like maybe they just don't have

756
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 3: the dogs, Like maybe they don't have the talent that

757
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: team to really stay in these games. So this is

758
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 3: definitely a spot where you're just playing the numbers and

759
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 3: fading Tomlin as a big favorite. So I totally ge

760
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 3: where you're coming from these kind of spots.

761
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 1: Well, look Sunday afternoon, Sunday, Sunday midday, after the show,

762
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 1: when we finalize our picks, we'll be together. Maybe we

763
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: can go get an espresso over at Italy next to

764
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,840
Speaker 1: the office and you know, fire up the laptop and

765
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: we'll put on our picks together. All right, last game

766
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: to talk about if we need a favorite, We're going

767
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: to get the forty nine ers at minus two and

768
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 1: a half in this contest. This is the biggest luck

769
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 1: rankings game on the board, biggest discrepancy between luck and unly.

770
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 3: Yes.

771
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 1: So here's a couple other things. I was listening to

772
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: Chris Long's green Light podcast right. He made a really

773
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: good point. He was talking about the Eagles and they

774
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: were on the plate on the field for ninety five

775
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: plays the other day in the rain. It was a

776
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: war of a game. Fletcher Cox banged up, Jordan Davis

777
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: banged up. We think Alane Johnson is going to play.

778
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 1: Even if he does, he'll be banged up. You need

779
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: every hour you can get, this was interesting to me.

780
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: Every hour you can get to recover. Meanwhile, everything the

781
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: forty nineers like to attack is where the Eagles are

782
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: weakest defensively, meaning in the middle of the field. Right

783
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: the one place they haven't overinvested is linebacker. That's what

784
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers like to do. We just did

785
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: the film room breakdown of Deebo Samuel and what he

786
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 1: can do and how Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel together.

787
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 1: This team is eight and zero when they play together,

788
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: winning by twenty one points. And while the Eagles just

789
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,760
Speaker 1: came off the battlefield against the Bills in a physical

790
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 1: game in the rain, the Niners are as healthy as

791
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: they've ever been and haven't played in ten days.

792
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest thing right there is what

793
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 3: you just said. It's the like they gave extended rest

794
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 3: plaint against a team that you just said. They played

795
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 3: an incredible amount of snaps on defense against a very

796
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 3: physical team in the Bills, Like that was a really

797
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 3: tough game. And yeah, this is a blind spot for me.

798
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 3: If if I didn't have so many pros calling me

799
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: up and telling me I have to take the two

800
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 3: and a half, I easily would have taken the Eagles

801
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: in our contest. But yeah, it seems like this is

802
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,439
Speaker 3: the pro spot take the forty nine ers. They're gonna

803
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 3: win this game. I gotta get over it.

804
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 1: I never see you as a biased better when it

805
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 1: comes to the Eagles. You're a professional. You don't let

806
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: your emotion out.

807
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 3: I honestly prefer to fade the Eagles because then I

808
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 3: can't lose where it's like like that the dream scenario,

809
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 3: the Eagles win and I win my bet, Like that's

810
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: what I live for. You will that never catch me

811
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 3: being biased. I'm all about the money, not about the Eagles.

812
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: We need we owe a foxhole. Is it green Bay?

813
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 1: Is it Tennessee?

814
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's do Green Bay because we've talked so much

815
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 3: about that, Like I probably should have made my assignment, says, well,

816
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 3: let's make our foxhold at six foxhoil Greenen Bay. You

817
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy.

818
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

819
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:52,439
Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.

820
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 1: We're in the fox Bay Packers at plus six.

821
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: You have no interest in Houston at minus three and

822
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 3: a half.

823
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: I think it's the right side stuck you all over Houston.

824
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 1: He just thinks like you're getting peak Denver because Denver's

825
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 1: been winning so much because of turnover luck. Yeah at

826
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 1: three and a half, I don't love the number, all.

827
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: Right, that makes sense you have. I have no real

828
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 3: feeling either, Like I wanted to take Denver, got talked

829
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 3: out of it. No real feel on it. So yeah,

830
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 3: I'm cool with thats on that one.

831
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: And then the other one we were skipping over is Cleveland,

832
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: which as soon as I made it my executive decision,

833
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: I wanted to walk it back. I'm sticking with it

834
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 1: because it's too great. Yeah, but like it made me

835
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: nervous from the second I said it, even though the

836
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: number has moved in the direction of Cleveland.

837
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 3: The line opened two and a half minus two and

838
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 3: a half Rams, and it's only moved a point after

839
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 3: that incredible win they had against Arizona, and now we

840
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 3: know for fact it's Joe Flacco and Miles Garrett as

841
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 3: a bumped shoulder. So I have no idea what this

842
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 3: line is. People like to me, it's all screaming rams,

843
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 3: But the books they think they know something. They think

844
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: this is going to land on three. That is one

845
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 3: of the more bizarre lines of the week. That that number.

846
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: There, Noman is show. That's what they say.

847
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 3: It's true.

848
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: Milman is sharp. By the way, I didn't mention because

849
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: we have a live event on Sunday night and we

850
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: will be watching at least some of the Packers Chiefs

851
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: game with our friends at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead

852
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 1: in Hoboken. Please rsvp bet three six ' five. Our

853
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:26,760
Speaker 1: sponsor is boosting a same game parlay for the Sunday

854
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: night game. That parlay is Kansas City money Line Travis Kelcey.

855
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: Anytime touchdown mahomes over twenty five rush yards that's boosted

856
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,879
Speaker 1: to plus four hundreds. So if you have bet three

857
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: sixty five, go to the Kansas City Green Bay matchup,

858
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: then the bet boost section and this boosted parlay is

859
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 1: at the top if you want to tail along with

860
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: us Simon. This holiday season is about more than just

861
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869
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Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?

883
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: Game Time?

884
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Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love Game

885
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Speaker 1: game Time app right now. From my house here in Connecticut,

890
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 1: I can get into the Brooklyn net Basketball. That's right,

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00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:38,200
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892
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,960
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895
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Speaker 1: lowes price guaranteed. All right by now you know, we

898
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: track our official content picks in the Action Contest picks

899
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 1: in the Action app under the Phase five account. Again,

900
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 1: if you want to see the unofficial picks we enter

901
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: on Thursday, go to the contest website Favorites dot Action

902
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: Network dot com and search the faves five that's us.

903
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 1: Before we get to our money line Underdog round Robin,

904
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 1: reminder that the Week thirteen contest tiebreaker is total passing

905
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: yards on Monday Night Football are predictive analyst Billy Ward

906
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link

907
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 1: to that article can be found in the episode's description.

908
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, good

909
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: luck everybody, Money Line, Underdog Round Robin Simon.

910
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 3: My dog likes your dog.

911
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:46,919
Speaker 2: Your dog likes mot Dog.

912
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: Jets Yeah, Titans, Yep, Eagles Nah, Saints Nah, Washington.

913
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, we got, we got. I do the dead cat

914
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 3: bounce the cat.

915
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 1: Bounce Carolina Yeah, Denver.

916
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's pretty good too.

917
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, New Jet, New York Jets, Tennessee, Titans, Washington, Carolina, Denver. Simon,

918
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: I want you to make Little Caesars, which is the

919
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 1: official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day.

920
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 1: The holiday season has finally arrived. Simon. If I wrapped

921
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: up a Little Caesars pizza, could I put it under

922
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 1: your tree?

923
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 3: That would mean so much to me.

924
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: Chad order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour

925
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: before NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.

926
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings

927
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, I just invented this motto. Tell me

928
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 1: what you think if pizza gives you the Kringle Tingles

929
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: give Little Caesars a jingle jingle. However you order your pizza,

930
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 1: you win. And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenience

931
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: delivery or our in store pizzaa porter will pickup. So

932
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: grab some friends and friends and enjoy a few slices

933
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,439
Speaker 1: during the game. When you say it means so much

934
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 1: to me, I bet just that just kills me. Do

935
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 1: you have that.

936
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 3: Planned p You're off the top of the head.

937
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: It just came you. That's so funny. Who's going to be.

938
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 5: I'm a survivor the Survivor pool pick of the week, So.

939
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: I'm down to two contests and one of them is

940
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,479
Speaker 3: one of the biggest in the nation. There's only eighty

941
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 3: people left. I will not say the name was said contest,

942
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 3: but most people know. And we are fighting because it's

943
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 3: not just me, and it's me and like three other guys,

944
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,839
Speaker 3: and we are fighting over who we're going to pick

945
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 3: this week because it's a week of you've got to

946
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 3: use these ugly teams and it's a good week to

947
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 3: do it. So Pittsburgh's got candidate. No one's used Pittsburgh.

948
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 3: They have a good spot. We just talked about Tampa

949
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:00,240
Speaker 3: technically have a good spot. They're playing against Carolina here.

950
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 3: I've been fading Carolina. It's been really good to me

951
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 3: and Sir Roverpool. And then the last one is the

952
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 3: Rams because you don't know what else you're gonna use

953
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 3: the Rams if you look at their upcoming schedule. Really

954
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 3: tough week, Chad, So I'm probably gonna have splitting like

955
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 3: I did last week, just to try to play it

956
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 3: safe and maximize my chances of winning at this point.

957
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: So I'll do the Rams for one and then I'll

958
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 3: do Pittsburgh for the other one. So Tomlin's not great

959
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 3: at covering in this spots, but I do feel like

960
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 3: he usually wins in these kind of spots. Win this game, bro,

961
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 3: Win this game straight up, totally get if you're scared

962
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,479
Speaker 3: off of it. I feel so bad for you because

963
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 3: it's so tough to make that decision. But if I

964
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 3: had to pick the one I feel the best about

965
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 3: and value wise, I'll do the Rams.

966
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 1: Remind me at this point your biggest bets of the week.

967
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 3: Well, I'm about to spend about one hundred K buying

968
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 3: out my Eagles position, which is gonna be a fucking

969
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 3: fun day. So I'll be doing a lot of that today,

970
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 3: which is gonna suck. Tennessee. Washington was Denver by again

971
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 3: buying out of my Denver position, which is fucking sucks.

972
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 3: The Ram Green Bay buy kickoff. It's probably gonna be

973
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 3: the Jets. Like Chad's right on it with the three.

974
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 3: You got to make these bets here on the Jets.

975
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 3: So yeah, right now, I don't have a lot on

976
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 3: the Jets, but I can tell you by Sunday this

977
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,399
Speaker 3: is gonna be one of my five bigger bets.

978
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 1: Chad's on it. You know why, Sharp Chad Sharp, foxhol

979
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 1: Green Bay plus six big balls, Jets plus two and

980
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,720
Speaker 1: a half exec Decision, Cleveland plus three and a half,

981
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: Simon says Washington plus nine and a half. As a reminder,

982
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: the favorites is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet

983
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get

984
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 1: more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every day

985
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 1: they power up the odds one hundreds of bets to

986
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: give you a chance to win more. Bet three six

987
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Speaker 1: five boosts specific markets, your winnings and even parlays. They

988
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: don't stop there, keep an eye for their biggest and

989
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: best odds with the incredible super boost. Check out the

990
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 1: boosts and see why it's never ordinary at bet three

991
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: six five. Must be twenty one or older and present

992
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and

993
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

994
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in iowhare terms, conditioners restrictions

995
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: apply all right, before we get out of here, Action

996
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, who gives us all

997
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 1: the great stats, he is going to tell us why

998
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: all the bets we've made are such a good idea.

999
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 5: Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.

1000
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.

1001
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 2: Well, what's going on?

1002
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:26,280
Speaker 3: Fellas?

1003
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 2: So Joe Flacco is one and no, I'm kidding Weather

1004
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 2: and Wind. I feel like we start there right December.

1005
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,760
Speaker 2: We're here, We're going to get it. So Indie Tennessee

1006
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati Jacksonville look like they're the closest win games

1007
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: right now. Actually, Indie Tennessee up to ten mile an

1008
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 2: hour wins, which seventeen and five and one to the

1009
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 2: under seventeen to five and one this year and one

1010
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 2: oh nine fifty five and one last three years, so

1011
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,240
Speaker 2: crazy wind usually goes under. In terms of cold games,

1012
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 2: ca c Green Bay about thirty degrees, so is Pittsburgh,

1013
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 2: New England, and then rain. You guys talked about it.

1014
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 2: Philly and Washington actually looked like they both could get

1015
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 2: some showers, So watch out there now. Unders feel like

1016
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 2: every show I do, I have to talk about this

1017
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 2: because it's literally got to the point where it's insane.

1018
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,879
Speaker 2: Standalone games thirty four and thirteen to the under, night

1019
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 2: games twenty nine and nine now Sunday Night Football and

1020
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,240
Speaker 2: Monday Night Football just feels made up at this point.

1021
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: Twenty three and three to the under this year, forty

1022
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 2: nine to seventeen last two years, but listen, cash in

1023
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:28,800
Speaker 2: fifteen straight and thirty two and three to the under

1024
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 2: last thirty five games just stupid. At this point, you're

1025
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,240
Speaker 2: gonna like this one, guys. Word of caution for Philly,

1026
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: So Eagles and Bills went to overtime last week. Teams

1027
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 2: coming off OT one twenty five one fifty seven straight

1028
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 2: up one thirty one fifty and two against the spread

1029
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: last decade under also good in those games. But here's

1030
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 2: a great one. You actually talked about it a few

1031
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,439
Speaker 2: minutes ago when you talked about plays off of overtime games, well,

1032
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 2: teams coming off ot where opponent ran ninety plus plays

1033
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 2: six and twelve straight up since two thousand small sample size,

1034
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 2: but doesn't happen often. Last one dead cat bounce. We

1035
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 2: love it on the show. Let's do it one more time.

1036
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 2: Thirty six teams have fired their coach in the regular

1037
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 2: season since two thousand and three, seventeen and nineteen straight

1038
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,640
Speaker 2: up in their next game. But twenty and sixteen against

1039
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 2: the spread, and you're gonna say to yourself, kind of

1040
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 2: a small margin, right, fifty five point six percent, But

1041
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 2: if you look at it those teams thirty seven percent,

1042
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:25,399
Speaker 2: ats margin prior to the coaching can change. So maybe

1043
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 2: a little bit of Carolina this week we're going to see.

1044
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 1: By the way, that was amazing context because as soon

1045
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,760
Speaker 1: as you said twenty and sixteen, I'm thinking to myself,

1046
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: I don't give a fuck about that. That means nothing.

1047
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 1: That was great. Evan, Here's the question for both of you,

1048
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 1: because Evan is practically a professional vetter in his own right,

1049
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: at what point do we feel like we start fading

1050
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: that under trend, Because like part of me hasn't been

1051
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: betting it because I'm like, well, this is the week

1052
00:52:59,080 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 1: it's going to end.

1053
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:00,399
Speaker 3: Yep.

1054
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: I mean I got asked this on GDD Green Dyed

1055
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 2: Daily of the show We Do Want every Day Listen.

1056
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 2: I think the problem is this the total, the average

1057
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 2: total in all these games. It's the lowest it's been

1058
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 2: in like ten or fifteen years. So books actually know

1059
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 2: this is happening. They're actually making these totals lower and

1060
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 2: it is still going under. Like that stat earlier on

1061
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 2: the thirty seven and thirty eights being like twenty two

1062
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 2: and four seen back to me is kind of the

1063
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 2: answer for I just had to stay away from me,

1064
00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 2: like I'm not even touching this anymore because I feel

1065
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 2: like I have to see like an uptick before I'm

1066
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 2: willing to invest. Now, if you're gonna go get a

1067
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 2: gate game to game and look at like you know

1068
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 2: your projections and this and that, like I get it,

1069
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 2: but just blindly doing it, I just can't.

1070
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, make fuck it, Yeah they can make the adjustment,

1071
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: doesn't matter. I've already bought the boat and I caught

1072
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 3: a prime time under on the back of it, Like

1073
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 3: they've already paid me out. So if you've rided this

1074
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: bravery train since week one when Evan gave us had

1075
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 3: an amazing stat and even last year we bet it

1076
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 3: all last year. It's just every year people are like,

1077
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 3: are they gonna catch up to it? And yeah, they

1078
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: might catch up to it. Like Evan said, they've been

1079
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 3: dropping the totals, but then we have a twelve ten

1080
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 3: game on Monday Night against the Vikings and Bears. It's

1081
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 3: like it doesn't matter. For some reason. These teams just

1082
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 3: are getting tight in these primetime games and they're kicking

1083
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:17,399
Speaker 3: threes instead of getting sevens. And we've had the most

1084
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 3: insane luck ever on these unders this season. So yes,

1085
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:24,360
Speaker 3: if you missed the party, don't start betting the unders

1086
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 3: now you've missed it. Someone like me, I'm gonna keep

1087
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 3: betting it. But yeah, like the last two weeks, I've

1088
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 3: definitely lowered the amount of been put on these unders.

1089
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 3: And of course I think it's what Evan. They've they've

1090
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 3: had two overs the last two weeks. It's just been

1091
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 3: four unders, so I keep thinking it's gonna catch up

1092
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 3: and the books will catch up to it, but they

1093
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: haven't yet. But totally agreement where it's like, next year,

1094
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 3: don't miss the boat start week one with us bet

1095
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 3: these prime time unders. It's a long term winner, Evan,

1096
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 3: give us the stats. Long term it wins just because

1097
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 3: the books will always inflate these prime time games. So

1098
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 3: totally agreement with Evan. They've caught up to it. They

1099
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 3: know what's happening, they know guys like me have been

1100
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,000
Speaker 3: taking advantage of it. They don't know what to do.

1101
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: They can't make it. They can't keep making it so

1102
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 3: low because eventually they will get caught by the professional.

1103
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 3: So they're in a tough spot here. But lucky for them,

1104
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 3: even this past week, the public was betting the overs.

1105
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 3: Like the Vikings Bear game, most of the money was

1106
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 3: on the over chad, so they don't really need to

1107
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 3: do much. Luckily for them, the public just likes to

1108
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 3: bet these overs. So historical year, crazy year, most properly

1109
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 3: year of my life betting these unders. And I'm not

1110
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 3: gonna stop. I'm gonna keep ryan at just I'm going

1111
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 3: to lower my limit size on these games instead of

1112
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 3: betting so big on it.

1113
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 1: Well, look look at the Bengals Jaguars. That total was

1114
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:42,400
Speaker 1: it thirty eight and a half? Got that down to

1115
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 1: thirty eight some places have it back at thirty eight

1116
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 1: and a half and thirty nine now, right, so you

1117
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 1: know it's getting bet up. I love that stat. Also

1118
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 1: about the under thirty eight and under thirty seven. This week,

1119
00:55:52,920 --> 00:56:01,320
Speaker 1: there are three games that are so far under thirty eight. Panthers, Bucks, Jags, Bengals,

1120
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: and I think Falcons Jets are the three that are under.

1121
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 1: So keep an eye out for that.

1122
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 3: Patriots, like all these games, Patriots, Chargers games, all these games,

1123
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 3: it's like, how do you not take the unders? I

1124
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 3: know it's tough, but it's like I see these teams

1125
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 3: settling for threes and not getting sevens like all those

1126
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 3: games you just mentioned. So that's nkey.

1127
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 2: Most field goals made per team and in NFL history

1128
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: this year.

1129
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 3: So wow, people just sell.

1130
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 1: All right, here's a wrap up Foxhole, green Bay plus

1131
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 1: six Big Balls, Jets plus two and a half exec Decision,

1132
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland plus three and a half, Simon says, Washington plus

1133
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Reminder of the round robin New

1134
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos.

1135
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 1: For now, if we had to put in the five

1136
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 1: that we're going to do and Simon and I will

1137
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 1: talk after this show. The faves five For now, I

1138
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 1: think it's going to be Jets depending on the numbers

1139
00:56:53,719 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: in the contest Jets Tennessee, Green Bay, Washington, Niners with

1140
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:03,439
Speaker 1: an outside shop for Arizona. If the number is six

1141
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 1: and a half, sign up by right.

1142
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 3: Simon sounds right, brother.

1143
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 1: Before we sign off, reminder, Simon and I will be

1144
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: back with our Week thirteen recap episode live from New

1145
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 1: Jersey on the Action Network YouTube page this Sunday, December third,

1146
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 1: seven thirty pm. If you want to join us our

1147
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 1: SVP using the link in the episode description, download us

1148
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

1149
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 1: use five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a

1150
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 1: gift until Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern. Love You.

1151
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1152
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help us

1153
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,760
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