1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. 6 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're with us. 7 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 3: We have a lot to cover, and I guess we 8 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 3: can begin with some pretty simple questions like will the 9 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 3: government shut down at the end of this week. It's 10 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 3: unclear if anybody really knows the answer to that, but 11 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 3: we're coming off a busy weekend with a lot of 12 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 3: talk and in fact a piece of legislation that was 13 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 3: dropped on Saturday from the new Speaker of the House. 14 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 2: There's your laddered CR. 15 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 3: Everybody, I don't have canned applause, And we talked about 16 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 3: the laddered CR. It would have some agencies going out 17 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 3: of business or running out of money at different times 18 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 3: than others. Turns out it's not that complicated. As a 19 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 3: matter of fact, there'd be two dates on this, one 20 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 3: in January, the other in February, and it's looking like 21 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 3: without the steep cuts without some of the so called 22 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 3: poison pills, the asylum law changes that were in original 23 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 3: proposals that some conservatives were pushing for, that this might 24 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 3: actually get enough votes to pass. And we know there's 25 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 3: a continuing resolution coming in from the Senate, so dare 26 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 3: to dream maybe the government doesn't shut down this weekend, 27 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 3: maybe it doesn't shut down at all this year. That's 28 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 3: where we start our conversation with Congresswoman Chrissy hulihand the 29 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 3: Democrat from Pennsylvania is back with us, just back in Washington. 30 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: I understand moments ago, Congresswoman, welcome back to the party. 31 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: It's great to see you and thank you for joining us. 32 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: What do you think about this piece of legislation? Is 33 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 3: this something that Democrats would consider voting for? 34 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: So let's back all the way up to what we're 35 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 4: trying to all collectively accomplish it, at least I hope 36 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 4: we are. We're trying to get all of the regular 37 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 4: order appropriations packages through. That has been a very unseerious 38 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 4: process on behalf of both. 39 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 5: The last Speaker and this Speaker. 40 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: But because we can't get those appropriations packages through, we're 41 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 4: in a condition where we will possibly shut down the 42 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 4: government and what the Democrats have been asking for all 43 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 4: along is to work together, to work bipartisanally and across 44 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 4: the aisle on first the appropriations package, because that's what 45 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 4: it's really all about. And second, if we can't get 46 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 4: there on the CR. So what we're looking for is 47 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 4: what's called a clean CR. To your point, I think 48 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 4: in the an introductory remarks, something that doesn't have a 49 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 4: lot of the poison pills in it that we've seen 50 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 4: in every single appropriations bill to date, and so it 51 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 4: looks like a relatively reasonable request. Your question about the 52 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 4: lattering is something that does concern me to some degree 53 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 4: because I think it sets a precedent that we're going 54 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 4: to sort of piecemeal parts of the appropriation or the 55 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 4: budgetary process. This could splinter into a CR for every 56 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 4: one of the different appropriations bills, perceivably or in the future, 57 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 4: and that's really concerning because that basically derails what should 58 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 4: be the regular process to begin with, and it becomes 59 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 4: a constant CR, which is really concerning. 60 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 3: Nice I had a nightmare at congressman. I was watching 61 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 3: CNN and there were twelve countdown clocks all staring. 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 2: At me at once. 63 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: But it turns out it's not actually what we're talking about. 64 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 3: In this we got details for the sake of our 65 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 3: listeners and viewers. You would see expirations for agriculture, Energy 66 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 3: and Water, Military Construction, VA, and Transportation HUD. Those are 67 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: your four bills on the nineteenth of January. The eight 68 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 3: remaining bills spending bills would expire at the beginning of February. 69 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 3: Thirty two page bill taken up by Rules Committee this afternoon. 70 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 3: It looks like there will be a vote tomorrow, Congresswoman, 71 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 3: Is that what you're hearing, because from what we see here, 72 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 3: the Speaker will need Democrats to pass this. 73 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 5: So I haven't yet heard. 74 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 4: Are you saying that it did pass the Rules committee, 75 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: because that would be news to me. 76 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 5: Is that news? 77 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: No, not at all. 78 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 3: I understand that Rules will be taking it up this afternoon, 79 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 3: But if are you hearing that it will be on 80 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: the floor tomorrow and that it will require Democrats. 81 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 4: That's part of the magic, right, First and foremost, it 82 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: has to pass rules, and then when it gets to 83 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 4: the floor, it has to pass another request to pass 84 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 4: the rule on the floor for the whole body, and 85 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: that requires that a majority of us say that we're 86 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 4: ready to vote on this, so two things have to 87 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 4: happen before we even have the possibility of voting on 88 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 4: this cr together as. 89 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 5: A whole body. 90 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 4: And Congress is sort of a wild ride lately, and 91 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,799 Speaker 4: that's not always a given. And in fact, we've seen rules 92 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 4: go down at least once or twice that I can 93 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 4: remember in the last six or seven months, so nothing 94 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 4: is a given. 95 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 2: Would you vote against it if it hit the floor? 96 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 4: So I don't know yet is the answer to that. 97 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 4: I feel as though it's a relatively speaking, earnest effort. 98 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 4: I do worry about the precedent that it sets in 99 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 4: terms of the splintering of to your point, the twelve 100 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 4: different or fourteen different countdown clocks. I am frustrated that 101 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 4: we're at this place, and really frustrated that we don't 102 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 4: seem to be able to get along with one another 103 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 4: of off the aisle, but also within the Republican Party itself. 104 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 4: And so it's just high weirdness, as my father used 105 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 4: to say in hig dysfunction right now, and I'm hoping 106 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 4: we do the right thing for the American people as 107 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 4: quickly as possible. 108 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 2: High weirdness. 109 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 3: Congresswoman, can I tell you how refreshing it is to 110 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 3: hear that I don't know? Is that not my favorite answer? Look, 111 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 3: we all really appreciate your honesty, because I know that 112 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 3: this hasn't been fully baked. Has the Democratic leadership? Is 113 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 3: Hakeem Jeffrey's wait in on this or is that the 114 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: next step for you? 115 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 4: No, to my knowledge, right now, he has not weighed 116 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 4: on it. They have not weighed in on it. I'll 117 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 4: be interested to see what they say. That being said, 118 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 4: I think each one of us has to kind of 119 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 4: make our own choices, you know, in this Congress, and 120 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 4: I think it remains to be seeing what this particular 121 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 4: effort will look like once it comes out of rules 122 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 4: or once it goes through you know, it's initial votes, 123 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 4: or any of those other processes. 124 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 5: And so I do have to say, I don't know. 125 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 5: I think it's the appropriate answer right now. 126 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 4: But Congress has this pot this ability to sort of 127 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 4: move at lightning speed or at glacial speed, and I 128 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 4: hope that lightning speed effective lightning speed will be that 129 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 4: choice this time. 130 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 3: Well, let's say we pass a cr By the grace 131 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 3: of God, the government doesn't shut down, then it's the 132 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 3: matter of dealing with the supplemental budget request that came 133 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 3: from the White House many weeks ago. Now Congress so 134 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: many you don't need me to tell you. Money for Israel, 135 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 3: money for Ukraine. They were packaged with Taiwan and border security. 136 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 3: The first thing the new Speaker did was strip apart 137 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 3: or bifer Kate, to use his word, the funding for Israel. 138 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,720 Speaker 2: How many weeks can this go on for? Because this is. 139 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,919 Speaker 3: Clearly delaying things, whether it's the right way to go 140 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: or not. How many weeks do we have before this 141 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 3: becomes an urgent matter in both Israel and Ukraine. 142 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 4: Not many, is the answer to that question. You know, 143 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 4: several is I think probably the best estimate. And I 144 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 4: agree that it is disappointing that the cr did not 145 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 4: include any supplemental funding, and I very much believe that 146 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 4: the supplemental funding should be all inclusive all of the 147 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 4: things that President Biden has asked for Ukraine, the border, 148 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 4: making sure Israel is protected, a lot of the emergency 149 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 4: funding as well, and I feel as though that's something 150 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 4: that really is pressing right now. But to answer your question, 151 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 4: my impression is within the next several weeks we really 152 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 4: need to move forward on that. And if you look 153 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 4: at where the votes are. We have the votes on 154 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 4: the House side. Certainly somewhere on the order of three 155 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 4: hundred or so of US I believe would vote for 156 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 4: that sort of a package. What we don't have is 157 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 4: necessarily getting through rules and then getting it for a 158 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 4: final vote on the floor. 159 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 3: Well, you, I'm sure have a unique view, being on 160 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 3: the Armed Services and Intelligence committees. I know these are 161 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 3: two very different scenarios here, and maybe we should strip 162 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 3: them apart or remove them for the sake of this conversation. 163 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 3: When it comes to Israel, do you have a sense 164 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 3: of how important US funding is for this war effort? 165 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 3: A lot of folks thought there'd be a pronounced ground 166 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 3: invasion underway, maybe two or three fronts opening, and that 167 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 3: has not happened. So how much does Israel need and 168 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: when does it need it? 169 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 4: So I think that they actually are relatively speaking connected, 170 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 4: both Israel and Ukraine, and frankly, what would possibly happen 171 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 4: in Taiwan and in the Indo Pacific region. 172 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 5: These are all threats. 173 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 4: To democracies, These are all threats to our national security 174 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 4: and to global security and peace. I believe that Israel, 175 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 4: as well as Ukraine and Frankly, Taiwan as well need support, 176 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 4: American support, and I believe that they are being used 177 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 4: effectively whatever it is that they're asking for. I hope 178 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 4: that we have the opportunity to send them. And I 179 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 4: don't think that we necessarily would see the urgent or 180 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 4: chronic need immediately, but rather over, as I mentioned, over 181 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 4: weeks and months, and so it's very important that we 182 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 4: get the pipeline primed and can keep the pipeline crime 183 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 4: for Ukraine in the next weeks. 184 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 3: It seems like Ukraine might be bumping up against a 185 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 3: need more urgently than Israel when it comes to actual hardware, 186 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 3: when it comes to money. I know you want to 187 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 3: address these in the same breath, Congresswoman, and I appreciate 188 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 3: the effort behind that, But when it comes to the 189 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 3: actual money and hardware, do you worry more about Ukraine 190 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 3: being forgotten here? 191 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 5: Yeah? I have to be very blunt, I do. 192 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 4: And that's part of the reason why when I was 193 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 4: approached by Israel and the embassy, they're asking if I 194 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 4: would support the supplemental for Israel, I responded that certainly 195 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 4: I was in favor of doing that, but that I 196 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 4: hadn't ask as well for them to ask of us, 197 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 4: which was these things are connected. I need to make 198 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 4: sure that we're connecting those two ideas. And as I 199 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 4: mentioned Taiwan as well as our own security at our 200 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,359 Speaker 4: own borders as well, I believe them to be fundamentally 201 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 4: and integral to one another. And so I feel like 202 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 4: it's probably more acute right now in Ukraine in terms 203 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 4: of the compare and contrast with Israel and Ukraine. But 204 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 4: that doesn't mean that we don't need to be moving 205 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 4: forward with expedients. I mean, look, how long it takes 206 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 4: us to get things done. We can't afford a whole 207 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 4: lot more time on any of these issues. 208 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 3: We're spending time with Congresswoman Christy who the hand of Pennsylvania. 209 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 3: We're talking about funding for two hot wars underway, but 210 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 3: of course government funding with regard to the continuing resolution 211 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 3: that we started our conversation about Congresswoman impacts money for 212 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 3: veterans as well. And it's not lost on me how 213 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 3: you spent your weekend as the nation observed Veterans Day. 214 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: You helped to award a purple heart to a Vietnam 215 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 3: veteran who was shot in the head, not once, but twice. 216 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 3: And has quite a remarkable American story to tell, and 217 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 3: I wonder if you could talk to us about that 218 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 3: before you sure. 219 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 4: I mean, this is sort of the cyclicality and the 220 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 4: wonder and tragedy of the world. My dad was born 221 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 4: in nineteen forty two in Leviv, so in Ukraine what 222 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:51,079 Speaker 4: was Poland now Ukraine. He survived because of the grace 223 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 4: and goodness of American soldiers, amongst others. He served in 224 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 4: Vietnam in the late sixties early seventies. This gentleman also 225 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 4: served in the sixty seven and timeframe, which interestingly enough, 226 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 4: is the year I was born. 227 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 5: So we're in this sort. 228 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 4: Of timeline of the American contribution to world order and 229 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 4: stability and world peace and the sacrifice that individual people 230 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 4: such as he have given for their nation. He got 231 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 4: shot not once but twice in two separate instances in 232 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 4: the head, and this is just something that went for 233 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 4: fifty six years without him being acknowledged and honored. It 234 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 4: was my privilege to be able to give the Purple 235 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 4: Heart to him, and frankly to his family as well, 236 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 4: who are just as instrumental as making sure he was 237 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 4: getting recognized for this. 238 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 3: We were of course talking about Air Force veteran Andrew Lipper, 239 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 3: who helped to secure the award my staff. Yes, I'm 240 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 3: looking at a photograph here Congressman as he's watching you 241 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 3: pin the medal on Army veteran Robert Fields. It's a 242 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 3: pretty remarkable story and it's one I'm glad. 243 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 2: That you could share. Thank you for a Congresswoman. 244 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: Thank you, Congresswoman Christy Houlihan, the Democrat from Pennsylvania with 245 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 3: us representing the sixth districts Here on Bloomberg Sound On, 246 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington as we assemble our panel 247 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 3: with Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno. 248 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 2: Happy Monday, guys. 249 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: Great to see both of you, hear Jeanie, what's your 250 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 3: thought from the Democratic view here? Christy Julihan isn't sure 251 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 3: what she wants to do. What should Democrats do when 252 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 3: that CR hits the floor, because it looks like they 253 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 3: will be needed to pass it. 254 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I. 255 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 7: Was so impressed by what she had to say. The 256 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,559 Speaker 7: reality is she's right, it is a clean CR. There 257 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 7: is there are no poison pills in there. It is 258 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 7: something that Democrats should take seriously. There is of course 259 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 7: always going to be reason that you feel a bit concerned, 260 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 7: and she is every right the latter component of this, 261 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 7: and of course the lack of the supplemental but beyond that, 262 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 7: I think it is something Democrats should take seriously. You know, 263 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 7: I agree with her that the lattered approach is a 264 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 7: bit problematic perhaps going forward, but in a negotiation you're 265 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 7: not going to get everything you want. And the fact 266 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 7: that they put forward a clean cr this is a 267 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 7: serious proposal that Democrats need to take seriously. And I 268 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 7: think the question is if Democrats go along with Mike Johnson, 269 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 7: is he going to have even more trouble on his 270 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 7: right going forward? I think as we look at what 271 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 7: Moodies did on Friday or set on Friday, rather, it 272 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 7: is critically important we avoid a shutdown. That is what 273 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 7: everybody wants, and we have absolutely a bill here that 274 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 7: can be worked on with both sides to ensure that 275 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,359 Speaker 7: for all of our economic security. 276 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,439 Speaker 3: Well, I want to get into the Moody stuff a 277 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 3: little bit later on with both of you. Rick, in 278 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 3: our moment that we have left, you believe the conventional 279 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 3: wisdom that odds are looking better that we will avoid 280 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 3: a shutdown. 281 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. 282 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 8: Why Representative Hulahan isn't doing handsprings over this deal. First 283 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 8: of all, the most important thing the Democrats has been 284 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 8: that the second tranch of this layered cr is the 285 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 8: defense side, and normally defense has always done first taken 286 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 8: away their domestic spending. 287 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 3: Well, let's get into the fine print with Rick and Jeanie. 288 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 3: Straight Ahead. Our signature panel is with us on the 289 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 3: fastest show in politics, and we've got campaign news to 290 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 3: talk about. As the Republican fields loses another it's all 291 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 3: straight ahead on sound Off. 292 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. 293 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 294 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 295 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 296 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 297 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 298 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 3: And if you were listening to our conversation with Congresswoman 299 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 3: Chrissy Hoolihan, she said just a moment ago that she 300 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 3: does not know what to do when it comes to 301 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 3: voting on this, and we'll see what happens in rules later, 302 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 3: but we are definitely realizing the uncertainty here. At the 303 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 3: same time, odds seemed to be improving as the Senate 304 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 3: does its work with these two crs could come together 305 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 3: into something real by the end of the week. 306 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 2: Let's see what Mick thinks. 307 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 3: We do this conversation every week around this time, every Monday, 308 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 3: certainly with Mick mulvaney, the former OMB Director. I just 309 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 3: like putting that first co founder of the Freedom Caucus, 310 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: former acting chief of staff in the Trump White House. 311 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 2: Mick, it's great to have you. Do you think we 312 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 2: avoid the shutdown? 313 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 6: Joe Happy Monday? 314 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you. 315 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 6: You know. Listen Washington, Yeah, exactly, you can hear my voice. 316 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 6: Washington is sort of it's a subjective kind of place, right, 317 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 6: and there's a lot of good news. There's a lot 318 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 6: of good chatter. I was in the I was in 319 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 6: the Capitol Hill Club last week, hung out at dinner. 320 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 6: There were a couple of folks and the tension in 321 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 6: the building. For those of you who don't know, except 322 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 6: that you listens who don't, Republican dining club. The Democrats 323 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 6: have a club that Republicans have a club. So I 324 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 6: go there, have dinner, and attention was was the likes 325 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 6: of which I've not seen before. Joe. It was just 326 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 6: that the building felt tense and well, I hear a 327 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 6: lot of good things come atter Washington. I also get 328 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 6: the feeling there's not a lot of good will built 329 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 6: up amongst the members right now. It's not an every 330 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 6: person for himself type of situation, but it's close. So 331 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 6: when you hear people say I don't know how I'm 332 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 6: going to vote on this, which is what you just 333 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 6: mentioned with the congresswoman, Yes, I get that sense. A 334 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 6: lot of people are in that vote that they don't 335 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 6: know how they're going to vote. They're going to vote 336 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 6: whatever they think is best for their particular seat. And 337 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 6: if that means the government shutdown, shut down, and then 338 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 6: that's what happens. If it means they vote to keep 339 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 6: the government open, that's what happened. No, there's no team 340 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 6: mentality right now amongst the Republicans, if that makes any sense. 341 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's incredible. 342 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 3: What do you make of the products that Speaker Johnson 343 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 3: decided to go with here, no so called poison pills. 344 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 2: You don't have the steep cuts. 345 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 3: I guess Chip roy already doesn't like this, and there 346 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 3: are several members who say that they will vote against 347 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 3: this Republican members, so Democrats will be required. Was that 348 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 3: the most effective path for the speaker to take? 349 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, which is the most effective path for Kevin McCarthy. No, 350 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 6: And that's talked about this a couple of times, which is, 351 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 6: you know, the real precedent that got set with McCarthy. 352 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 6: One of several precedents was that if a speaker brings 353 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 6: a bipartisan spending bill to the floor to keep the 354 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 6: government open, is that mean the speaker's term is over? 355 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 6: Certainly McCarthy had a lot of a lot of animosity 356 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 6: directed towards him by some members, but he also had 357 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 6: a lot of good will built up. I don't know 358 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 6: where Mike Johnson is on that, And I don't know 359 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 6: if bringing a bill that Democrats like automatically make him 360 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 6: look bad in the eyes of a bunch of Republicans, 361 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 6: And I just I don't get a sense that will 362 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 6: making this up as we go along as analysis. I 363 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 6: heard the other day a sports analogy which I don't like, 364 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 6: but it's sort of like putting in your four string 365 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 6: quarterback in the middle of late in the game. And 366 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:01,919 Speaker 6: not only is it not the person who's practiced with 367 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 6: the first team, it's something that not a lot of 368 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 6: people know, they're not familiar with. And that's where we 369 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 6: are with the Republicans in the House. Again, I hate 370 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 6: sports analogies, but that one seemed to strike home. 371 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of like that one too. 372 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 3: But boy, I guess I'm curious your thoughts on a 373 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 3: on an individual who is framed as an extremist, someone 374 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 3: who is going to side with the right flank, would 375 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 3: would read the Bible before he made a decision, And 376 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 3: this sounds like a like a pretty mild approach for 377 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 3: someone who you would describe that way. 378 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 2: What do you make of this? What does it tell 379 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 2: us about Mike Johnson? 380 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:37,880 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I don't and I know you don't 381 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,919 Speaker 6: intend that, but I don't. I don't equate reading the 382 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 6: Bible before you go do stuff as being you know, extreme, 383 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 6: or or be a hardcore conservative and so forth. But 384 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 6: that's not your question. The question is this maybe what 385 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 6: we expected from this this this you know, this more 386 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 6: conservative speaker, I don't know. And maybe he got there 387 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 6: and realized that the only way you can fund the 388 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 6: government is on a bipartisan basis. Again, you and I've 389 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 6: talked about that for months. Any spending bill, any spending 390 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 6: bill that is going to pass the Congress, has to 391 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 6: be by parts is because of the nature of the Senate. 392 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 6: And I can't get over the number of Republicans in 393 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 6: the House who just don't get that. And maybe Mike 394 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 6: is just now figuring it out that he cannot pass 395 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 6: a bill by himself, and that's a tough tough spot 396 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 6: to be. But listen, I give him. I'll give him 397 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 6: credit for creativity that you know, the two step the 398 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 6: ladder approach. I thought, very creative. Never heard of that before. 399 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 6: It sounds like it's getting at least some attention from 400 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 6: all sorts of folks, So I give I give him 401 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 6: credit for them. 402 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 3: Last question, the supplemental requests for Israel for Ukraine? 403 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 2: Do those both wait until next year? 404 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 6: I can't imagine the Israel thing waiting until next year. 405 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 6: There's just too much support for it. I agree with 406 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 6: what the Republicans in the House trying to do in 407 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 6: terms of splitting off Ukraine and Israel, because there is 408 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 6: no reason for them to go together. There's nothing nothing 409 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 6: about the since of the matter. There's nothing about the 410 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 6: politics of the matter that there's no reason for them 411 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 6: to go together other than I think the administration feels 412 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 6: like it's the last time they will get any money 413 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 6: from Ukraine, so they're trying to marry it to Israel. 414 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 6: They're trying to ask for a bunch I mean, sixty 415 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 6: billion dollars, so they can't spend that in a year 416 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 6: or two. We spent sixty billion on super soilm sandy, 417 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 6: and I don't think all that money is even spent yet. Anyway, 418 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 6: I do think Israel will pass, but I don't think 419 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 6: it'll be married in the Ukraine. Ukraine is gonna be tough, 420 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 6: but it will pass as well. Ukraine money might have 421 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 6: to wait till next year. 422 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 3: Nick Malvany, great to have you back. Happy Monday. To 423 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 3: your point, Mick, we'll see where we are next Monday. 424 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 3: Are we open or are we closed? Mick Malvaney joins 425 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 3: us every Monday here Unsound on and we'll find out 426 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 3: as we reassemble the panel for their take on what 427 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 3: we just heard. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. Rick, what 428 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 3: do you think about Israel and Ukraine. There is a 429 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 3: thought that this is the last train leaving the station 430 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 3: before the end of the year in this continuing resolution? 431 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 2: What do you see not here in Rick? 432 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 3: If that's me or not sure, I think there'll be 433 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 3: enormous pressure or Israel to fund this week, you know, 434 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 3: or right after the CR You're gonna have one hundred 435 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 3: thousand supporters of Israel come to Washington, DC tomorrow, shut 436 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 3: the town down. 437 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 8: They're all going to be seeing their members and talking 438 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 8: about this. So I think that the pressure campaign is 439 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:35,239 Speaker 8: just starting. And I can't imagine these these Republicans and 440 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,879 Speaker 8: Democrats getting out of town without showing some support for Israel. 441 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 2: Okay, I gotta tell you, Genie. 442 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 3: We showed this map last week of the potential windfall 443 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 3: for states that are home to companies like artsy X, 444 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 3: like Raytheon, like Lockheed Martin, like Northrop Grumming. We're a 445 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 3: lot of this. If not the bulk of this sixty 446 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 3: bill for Ukraine would be going. Are more lawmakers going 447 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 3: to warm up to that? We're showing it now for 448 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 3: our viewers on YouTube. Does this become something that Republicans 449 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 3: can warm up to when that is the pitch? 450 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 7: I think so. And in your conversation with the representative, 451 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 7: she just said, and we know this that there is 452 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 7: widespread bipartisan support for this. Yes, there are people on 453 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 7: both sides, on the right and the left, particularly in 454 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 7: the House, who will not support it, but a number 455 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 7: over three hundred these days in the House is pretty 456 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 7: darn good. So I think you know your point about 457 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 7: the economics of this is critical. We're going to see 458 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 7: the meeting with Biden and jijin Ping. I mean, all 459 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 7: of these things go together, and this is a case 460 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 7: that's got to be made and I made, and I 461 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 7: think it will pass. But I do think they have 462 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 7: to do it sooner rather than later, which is a 463 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 7: concern about the fact that it's not included in this 464 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 7: build of right the Speaker has put forward. But of course, 465 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 7: you know you can't get everything in one bill, and 466 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 7: so they're going to have to do it as a 467 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 7: supplemental Rick, you know. 468 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 2: The power of branding and politics. 469 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 3: Why not come back around with a supplemental request for 470 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 3: America's defense industrial base about sixty billion dollars. 471 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 8: Well, I would have thought even more compelling was the 472 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 8: pitch that the Biden administration did do, which is, let's 473 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 8: support the democracies around the world, including our own I 474 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 8: do think what unlocked how much Ukraine money. What unlocks 475 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 8: the Ukraine money is is border security money. And nobody 476 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,400 Speaker 8: needs that border security plan funded more. 477 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 2: Than Joe Biden. 478 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 8: If he has any chance of winning reelection, He's got 479 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 8: to do something proactive about border security. It can't just be, 480 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 8: you know, to pay people who are processing immigrants coming 481 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 8: into the country. It's got to be about security. And 482 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 8: I think if the Senate can give him something like that, 483 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 8: there could be a grand bargain over the end of 484 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 8: the year. 485 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 3: Jennie, if only got thirty seconds to news, is that 486 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 3: the way this sends border security unlocks Ukraine funding. 487 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 7: I think so. And you heard the rhetoric when we 488 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 7: may talk about it Donald Trump over the weekend. They 489 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 7: are playing hard and Trump's team on the issue of 490 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 7: immigration and security. Biden has a perfect, perfect run here 491 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 7: to try to get the upper hand on that, or 492 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 7: at least a hand, and he desperately needs that as 493 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 7: he goes into this election. So it is almost a 494 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 7: gift to Joe Biden if they can couple this and 495 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 7: get all four of those things at once in a supplemental. 496 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 3: Great great conversation. Thanks to Rick, Thanks to Jeanie. Thanks 497 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 3: to Mick Mulvaney and Congresswoman hul Hand, we covered some ground. 498 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 499 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 500 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 501 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 502 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: You made it the Monday, so did Kaylee Lynes. Nice 503 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 2: to see you. 504 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 3: Likewise, we're counting down to a government shut down. We've 505 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 3: got what five days to make this work. 506 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: Yep. 507 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: We've got another candidate out of. 508 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 3: The race in the Republican field, the race for president, 509 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 3: and we're talking about neither right now because we have breaking. 510 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 2: News the other branch of government. Amazing to me, Yes, absolutely, 511 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 2: we do have three. 512 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 9: I might forget Legislative, Executive, and it's the judicial branch 513 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 9: making news. 514 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 2: That well, yes it is, Kayle Lyins. 515 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 3: I wonder sometimes when you hear us talk about the 516 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 3: White House, Senate House, how many people think those are 517 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 3: the three? And I hope I never hear the answer 518 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 3: to that, because we're talking about the Code of Conduct ethics, 519 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 3: and you think about the work that Pro Publica has 520 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 3: done that has led to an extreme level of doubt, 521 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 3: lack of confidence in the institution here based on these 522 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 3: yachting trips and the fishing trips and everything that certain 523 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 3: justices were taking. 524 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 2: Apparently the Court has its own answer. 525 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 9: Yeah, the Supreme Court today adopting a code of conduct, 526 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,400 Speaker 9: a binding code of conduct for the first time, Joe, 527 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 9: we mad all of these ethics controversies the Court has 528 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:03,959 Speaker 9: been facing. Of course, what you were referring to a 529 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 9: series of ProPublica of reports, specifically around Justice Clarence Thomas 530 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 9: and his relationship with billionaire Harlan Crowe, raised a lot 531 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 9: of concerns on Capitol Hill. Of course, the Senate Judiciary 532 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 9: Committee had been trying to get many of these individuals 533 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 9: to testify before them, but even some of the Court 534 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 9: justices themselves had been suggesting that a code of ethics 535 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 9: was needed, and that seems to be what the Court 536 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 9: has adopted today. 537 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 3: Well, as a matter of fact, I'll sneak up on 538 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 3: you with that. Alena Kagan was talking about this in August. 539 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 3: She was one of a couple of justices, to your point, 540 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 3: who had opened the door to this to at least 541 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 3: give us a sense that they were talking amongst themselves 542 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 3: not just waiting, for instance, for the Judiciary Committee to 543 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 3: do something, because they've been talking about it too. 544 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 2: Here's Justice Kagan. 545 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:48,639 Speaker 10: You know, we could decide to adopt a code of 546 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:56,159 Speaker 10: conduct of our own that either follows or decides in 547 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,880 Speaker 10: certain instances not to follow the standard code of conduct. 548 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 10: That would remove this question of what can Congress do, 549 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 10: or at least, you know, it would put it in 550 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 10: a different light if Congress continued to act. And you know, look, 551 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 10: it's not a secret for me to say. You know, 552 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 10: there's been that you know, we have been discussing this issue. 553 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 3: And that was in August. Fast forward a few months. 554 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,719 Speaker 3: This is real, yeah, Kaylie. The headlines that are crossing 555 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 3: the terminal also indicating that the code largely codifies existing principles. 556 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 2: So we need to learn more here. 557 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 9: Yeah, and of course we'll bring more details to our 558 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 9: listeners and viewers as we get it. But it seems 559 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 9: what the argument had been jo was that there were 560 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 9: certain practices that justices were supposed to follow, even if 561 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 9: it wasn't necessarily codified in a binding format or may 562 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:47,920 Speaker 9: be binding anything. 563 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 3: Right that was taking So now there'll be repercussions for 564 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 3: following these rules. 565 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 2: Maybe some enforcement here. 566 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 3: You could call it pretty remarkable breaking news. Find more 567 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 3: on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Right now, 568 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 3: the Supreme Court announcing its own code of conduct that 569 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 3: it apparently has already adopted. 570 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 2: We'll see how this works out. 571 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,199 Speaker 3: Greg's store is the best Supreme Court reporter in the country. 572 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 3: He's with us here at Bloomberg, and I'm sure is 573 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 3: chasing this down right now. We'll have a lot more 574 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: free as we make our way through it. I wonder 575 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 3: what Kyle thinks about this, because I think she just 576 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 3: made the point too. Congress off the hook again. He 577 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 3: joins us from Sabato's Crystal Ball, where he's managing editor 578 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 3: at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle, good 579 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 3: to see if thanks for joining Kaylee and myself here. 580 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,719 Speaker 3: This is just one last thing that the Congress has 581 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 3: to worry about, now, isn't it. 582 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:36,239 Speaker 5: Well. 583 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 11: I think also it's kind of hard for I mean, 584 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 11: I'm no expert in this, but I'm just shooting shooting 585 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 11: from the hip here. But you know, there are some 586 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 11: question as to how how well Congress could sort of 587 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 11: regulate the conduct of Supreme Court justices, and like with 588 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 11: anything else, like, what what would the penalties be for 589 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 11: actually breaking this code, because sort of impeachment, you really 590 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 11: can't get rid of someone on the court. So I'd 591 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 11: be curious to see, like what what this actually says 592 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 11: and whether there's some sort of like internal enforcement metric 593 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 11: for it. But you know, I think part of what 594 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 11: probably has happened here is that, you know, these these 595 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 11: Court justices are you know, that there's not a whole 596 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,959 Speaker 11: lot of accountability once they actually be you know, are 597 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 11: sworn into office and they have got lifetime appointments, and 598 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 11: so it could be hard even if there are you know, 599 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 11: stricter or more codified rules, it can be harder to 600 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 11: actually to actually figure out where to enforce those against 601 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 11: the against the justices. 602 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, and Kyle Joe mentioned it at the top that 603 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 9: the trust in the Court as an institution is really 604 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 9: low right now, in part because of these ethics concerns, 605 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 9: which clearly they're trying to address, but also in part 606 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 9: because of the way that this Supreme Court in particular 607 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 9: has ruled. We've seen the ramifications of specifically the Dobbs decision, 608 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 9: the overturning of Roe v. Waight in election after election, 609 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 9: including most recently last week, and I just wonder how 610 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 9: much you really do expect that to continue to be 611 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 9: a driving force going into twenty twenty four. 612 00:29:58,600 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 5: Yeah. 613 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 11: Look, I think that the Court has been kind of partisanized, 614 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 11: just like a lot of other things in American life. 615 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 11: And of course, these Supreme Court vacancies are these these 616 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 11: prizes for the party to parties to cash in on. 617 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 11: You know, just so happened that that trumpack got three vacancies. 618 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 11: You know, Biden's only had one so far. And you know, 619 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 11: it's it's sort of like a lot of it can 620 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 11: just be random, you know, depending on if someone someone 621 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 11: lives or dies or decides to retire at a specific time. 622 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 11: But clearly the the Dobb's decision was unpopular. 623 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: Uh. 624 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 11: And when abortion has been on the ballot in various states, 625 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 11: be it red states, purple states, and blue states, it's 626 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 11: done well since the Dobbs decision, and at least on 627 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 11: that issue, you expect Democrats to have an advantage going forward. 628 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 11: It's just a question of, you know, how important overall 629 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 11: it is. But of course it's going to be a 630 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 11: topic of the presidential election and a whole lot of 631 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 11: races for all starts offices. 632 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 2: Next year, I'm. 633 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 3: Spending time with Kyle Condicatet Sabato's Crystal Ball at the 634 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 3: University of Virginia Center for Politics. Been looking forward to 635 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 3: talking to you about this stack data research out today. 636 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 2: Kyle. 637 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 3: I don't know if you've had a chance to look 638 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 3: at it, but it's taking the view of the Electoral 639 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 3: College in projecting winners and losers in the presidential race. 640 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 3: It's making state by state projections using national data. So 641 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 3: I realized some folks have a little bit of trouble 642 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 3: with this, and we're a year out. All of that said, 643 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 3: you put this together, it's the same states we've been 644 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 3: talking about for some time here in the same states 645 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 3: that we were looking at in our own polling here 646 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This says Trump 647 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 3: flips them all, might even pick up Nevada thanks to 648 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 3: third party candidates and beats Joe Biden in the Electoral 649 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 3: College by two ninety two to two forty six. Are 650 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 3: you rolling your eyes as I'm talking to you a 651 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 3: year out here, or are you looking closely at this 652 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 3: as an important marker with a year to voting. 653 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 11: Mega projections and doing polls. You know, I think it's 654 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 11: I think it's too early for that. I will say 655 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 11: the numbers have been pretty bad for Joe Biden and 656 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 11: all sorts of different metrics of this this fall. You know, 657 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 11: there have been a number of polls from from Bloomberg, 658 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 11: from the New York Times, from other places that show 659 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 11: Biden in a fairly weak position and a potential rematch 660 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 11: with Donald Trump. I do think part of what's going 661 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 11: on here is that while both Biden and Trump clearly 662 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 11: have warts and clearly have favorability problems, I think Biden's 663 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 11: problems are sort of more front of mind, in part 664 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 11: because he's the incumbent, in part because he's in the 665 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 11: news more that Donald Trump. There are probably a time 666 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 11: when Donald Trump's warts become clear, but you know, obviously 667 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 11: if he's if he's renominated, My only expectation is I'm 668 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 11: thinking that we should have another closeer competitive presidential election, 669 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 11: just like we've had really for the most part since 670 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 11: two thousand. 671 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 2: Sounds like a big grain of. 672 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 4: Salt on that one. 673 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 9: Huh, Yeah, that would be my take as well, Joe. 674 00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 9: As we think about what the contours of the twenty 675 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 9: twenty four primary race, though, ar Kyle, because of course 676 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 9: we have to get through that verse before we can 677 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 9: get to a general and we do have news on 678 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 9: that front in that the Republican field has gotten smaller. 679 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 9: Tim Scott, the Senator from South Carolina, has dropped out. 680 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 9: Where do those would be Scott voters vote go Does 681 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 9: all of that go to former President Trump? Or could 682 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 9: that be a boon to another South Carolinian? 683 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 11: You know, look, I mean Scott was not polling particularly high, 684 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 11: particularly in national surveys. He did have some kind of 685 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 11: mid single digit support in Iowa high to minted single 686 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 11: digit support in South Carolina. You might expect that that. 687 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 11: You know, Nikki Haley is the only South Carolinian left 688 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 11: in the race. Maybe she benefits more in that specific 689 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 11: state from Tim Scott getting out. But you know, we're 690 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 11: still at a point where where Donald Trump is over 691 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 11: fifty percent nationally in polls, and he's close to fifty percent, 692 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 11: if not surpassing fifty percent in some of the. 693 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 5: Key early states. 694 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 11: So even if you add up all the opposition and 695 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,960 Speaker 11: everyone who wasn't voting for Trump was voting for a 696 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 11: single alternative, Trump might still be in these states. So 697 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 11: you know, Trump's got to fall off some more. I 698 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 11: will say that, you know, for people who don't want 699 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 11: Trump to be the no nominee, they should want more 700 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,239 Speaker 11: winnowing of the field. And so Scott getting out I 701 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,799 Speaker 11: think is probably good if you're a non Trump Republican 702 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,919 Speaker 11: because at least that frees up some portion of the vote. 703 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,600 Speaker 11: Although it's also not clear that all of those Tim 704 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 11: Scott voters would go somewhere out or we'd go, you know, 705 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 11: we go to someone else as opposed to vote to Trump. 706 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,399 Speaker 11: You know, maybe it ends up being splintered a little bit, 707 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 11: but you know, you've still got you know, a number 708 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 11: of other candidates in the race, although you know, even 709 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 11: at the debate last week there were only five people 710 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,760 Speaker 11: on stage. Of course one of them is gone. Of course, 711 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 11: you know Donald Trump was not on that stage. So 712 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 11: long way to go still from the non Trump Republicans, 713 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 11: but at least some of these other candidates are dropping out, 714 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 11: which I think should be good from their perspective. 715 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,359 Speaker 3: Speaking of dropping out, Rick Davis was just suggesting last hour, 716 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 3: Kyle on this program that run de Santis may not 717 00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 3: make it to Iowa or New Hampshire. And when you 718 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,399 Speaker 3: look in I don't mean to dwell on the stack 719 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 3: data here. He's the one guy Joe Biden can beat, 720 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 3: and it's overwhelming. Biden beats DeSantis three fifty nine to 721 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 3: one seventy nine in the electoral College. You know, Kaylee 722 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,799 Speaker 3: just framed her question around Nicki Haley. I don't hear 723 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 3: anybody talking about the next surge or a path to 724 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 3: anything for Ron DeSantis. 725 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:21,200 Speaker 2: How about you. 726 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,640 Speaker 11: Well, look, I still think if Trump were to collapse, 727 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 11: and I don't know what exactly would make that happen 728 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 11: at this point, if we haven't seen it already, I 729 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 11: kind of still think DeSantis is better equipped to pick 730 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:36,360 Speaker 11: up more of Trump's support than Haley is, mostly because DeSantis, 731 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,280 Speaker 11: I think his positioned to the right of Nicki Haley, 732 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 11: he still shows up as sort of a more popular 733 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,239 Speaker 11: second choice vote amongst you know, amongst people who say they' 734 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 11: supporting Trump in the primary. But I will say, you know, 735 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 11: I mean, DeSantis has had some money problems, you know that, 736 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,239 Speaker 11: you know, hypothetically could be something to drove him from 737 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 11: the race, although you know, again he is bolstered a 738 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,000 Speaker 11: little bit by by the field getting a little bit 739 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 11: a little bit smaller. Here, I also don't really believe 740 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 11: that the Santists would ultimately be a dramatically weaker presidential 741 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,839 Speaker 11: nominee than Donald Trump. I think it's possible that that 742 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,000 Speaker 11: there are people who say they support Trump now who 743 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 11: maybe say they don't support the Santists, but that they 744 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 11: would come come around in the end. You know, my 745 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 11: guess is maybe there won't be that big of a difference, 746 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,839 Speaker 11: you know, between the two, you know, when it's all 747 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 11: said and done. So that that I that I questioned 748 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 11: a little bit. Polls have been kind of back and 749 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,719 Speaker 11: forth on that, but you know, you got to you 750 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,959 Speaker 11: got to remember, there's a whole campaign to go after 751 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,319 Speaker 11: you get general election nominees. There's a consolidation period, there 752 00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,200 Speaker 11: are conventions, there's a campaign to run. You know, there 753 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,319 Speaker 11: probably wouldn't be as dramatic a differences among these candidates 754 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 11: when it all, when it's all said and done, as 755 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 11: opposed to what things may suggest right now. 756 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,319 Speaker 9: Well, and again, the way things are looking right now, 757 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,080 Speaker 9: we do have two presumptive nominees on both the Republican 758 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,440 Speaker 9: and Democratic side. Into the point Show was making for 759 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 9: all the talk before really just more recent history. It 760 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 9: was the idea that Trump was the only Republican that 761 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 9: Biden could beat. It seems like that narrative is kind 762 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 9: of shifting in a material way. If you're the Biden campaign, 763 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:06,959 Speaker 9: what are you looking at here? Where are you trying 764 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,239 Speaker 9: to focus and what what do you think is within 765 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 9: their power to change? 766 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 11: And I think they need to, you know, continue to 767 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 11: try to address people's conservatives with Joe Biden. Be it 768 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 11: his age, and again it's not like he's going to 769 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 11: get any younger, but maybe there are things that they 770 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,400 Speaker 11: can they can do in that regard and try to 771 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,279 Speaker 11: highlight what they think are some of the positive things 772 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,959 Speaker 11: they're doing. You know, there is a real disconnect. People 773 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 11: think the economy is terrible, and you could point to 774 00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 11: some numbers and say that it's not. But you know, 775 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,000 Speaker 11: I do wonder this sort of focus on quote unquote 776 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,839 Speaker 11: Bidenomics and trying to paint a rosy picture of that. 777 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,480 Speaker 11: There's been some kind of anecdotal evidence that that maybe 778 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,680 Speaker 11: is turning people off, that people just don't feel that way. 779 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,479 Speaker 11: So you know, there's and you know, in the midst 780 00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 11: of a campaign, there there's only so much that the 781 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 11: campaigns themselves can control. And I think one thing that 782 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 11: is really important for Biden is he needs to have 783 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,960 Speaker 11: a weak opponent, and Trump may or may not end 784 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:00,640 Speaker 11: up being that. You know, I have the time if 785 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 11: he gets nominated and what not. Work there's some other Republican. 786 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,800 Speaker 3: He's the managing editor at Savageo's Crystal Ball at the 787 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 3: University of Virginia Center for Politics. 788 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,240 Speaker 2: Kyle Condick, Kyle, thanks. 789 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,760 Speaker 3: For always being a reliable voice for us here at Bloomberg. 790 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 3: We look forward to the next conversation here. 791 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 792 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 793 00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 794 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 3: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 795 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:33,200 Speaker 3: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.