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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing into spectacular. I'm sitting it to cash touch.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 5: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate cabin you want to pull.

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Speaker 5: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL Fantasy Flex episode

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Speaker 3: of the award winning Action Network podcast, presented by Bett MGM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the show. I'm Matthew Freeman

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Speaker 3: and the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and here

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Speaker 3: with me are Sean Corner and Chris Raymond. Sean is

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics. Chris is a

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Speaker 3: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network. And there

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Speaker 3: are two of the best fantasy football rankers in the world.

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Speaker 3: This episode, we are highlighting the players at the top

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Speaker 3: of our week ten rankings in our Fantasy tool at

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. We were discussing the guys who are

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Speaker 3: high and low on and looking at how they do

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Speaker 3: in our Fantasy Labs models and we're speculating on some

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Speaker 3: player props. And joining us for his first time on

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Speaker 3: the show is Ben Gretch, who each week writes the

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Speaker 3: excellent Stealing Signals newsletter, which you can subscribe to via

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Speaker 3: his sub stack. Ben, how's it going.

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Speaker 5: It's going good. Glad to be here with you.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 5: Start getting out early.

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Speaker 6: I write Signals every week on Mondays and Tuesdays, which

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Speaker 6: is a big review column, so I'm not usually looking

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Speaker 6: ahead this early in the week, but it's exciting to

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Speaker 6: get an early jump on it.

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Speaker 3: can join for free every week. Click on the link

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Speaker 3: in the episode description to join Ben. Let's talk about

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Speaker 3: the quarterbacks at the top of the rankings. We have

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Speaker 3: as our top three Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: Do you see it any differently at the top of

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Speaker 3: the board.

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Speaker 4: No, No.

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Speaker 6: I think this week kind of starts and maybe not ends,

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Speaker 6: but certainly starts with that Buffalo at Arizona matchup.

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Speaker 5: You know, we have Josh Allen, we have Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 6: We have two teams that run ten personnel four wide

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Speaker 6: receiver sets more than any other team in teams in

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Speaker 6: the league they run. They've both run over one hundred

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Speaker 6: plays about twenty percent of their snaps at a ten

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Speaker 6: personnel There's only one other team over twenty plays all season.

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Speaker 5: It's Stampa Bay at fifty.

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Speaker 6: So these guys are way out and above in ten

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Speaker 6: personnel usage and four wide usage in general. We know

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Speaker 6: Buffalo loves to pass heavy on early downs. The passover

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Speaker 6: expectations very high. Arizona plays very fast. They're not necessarily

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Speaker 6: a pass heavy over expectation team, but they're going to

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Speaker 6: play fast. So this is a game that you got

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Speaker 6: to love both quarterbacks. You gotta love the total, the

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Speaker 6: atmosphere in the game entirely, all right.

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Speaker 3: So you have those three guys at the top of

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Speaker 3: the board. Are there some quarterbacks in particular that you

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Speaker 3: think you might be high on relative to expectations or

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Speaker 3: relative to what might be consensus across the industry as

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Speaker 3: we move into the week.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I start and end right now with

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Speaker 6: these elite quarterbacks. One that I'm a little bit higher

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Speaker 6: on right now is Lamar Jackson, And it's a matter

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Speaker 6: of expectation. I think if you are still expecting Lamar

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Speaker 6: Jackson to be a top two quarterback like he was

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Speaker 6: draft season, then you're probably missing the boat here. I

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Speaker 6: don't think he's even in the top tier or particularly

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Speaker 6: close to it right now. But he has only played

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Speaker 6: two games that have finished within fourteen points all season.

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Speaker 6: The Ravens have been a part of a bunch of blowouts.

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Speaker 6: Last week, they had the long defensive touchdown that helped

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Speaker 6: them sort of coast to a win.

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Speaker 5: The Colts weren't doing a whole lot.

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Speaker 6: I think as we get a little bit more variants

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Speaker 6: in their outcomes, and if the Patriots can at least

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Speaker 6: make this a little bit competitive in Foxborough.

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Speaker 5: We will see more aggressiveness from Lamar.

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Speaker 6: Now they've been a lot less aggressive this year, but

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Speaker 6: those two games that have been reasonably close, he's had

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Speaker 6: two of his better games of the entire season. So

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Speaker 6: that is something that I'm keeping an eye on. But yeah,

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Speaker 6: for the most part, I'm leaning to Kyler Russ Allen.

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Speaker 6: You know, Aaron Rodgers has a very high team total.

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Speaker 5: The guys that have been productive, right, so this is good.

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Speaker 3: We're going to be, I think, on opposite sides here

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Speaker 3: a little bit because I'm I mean, you know, a

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Speaker 3: lot of respect for Lamar, but I'm low on Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson this week. And but I think we're actually pretty

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Speaker 3: aligned on where we see him as just I have

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Speaker 3: him at number seven. I think there might be some

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Speaker 3: people who have him in the top five this week,

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Speaker 3: and I just I can't go there given the excellent

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Speaker 3: matchups that some of these other quarterbacks have. And I'm

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Speaker 3: going to say literally the same thing about Lamar this

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Speaker 3: week that I said last week and the week before

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Speaker 3: that He's just not as dynamic as a runner this

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Speaker 3: year as he was last year, and he hasn't progressed

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Speaker 3: as a passer. And then that offense is playing slower

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Speaker 3: and they're scoring fewer touchdowns overall. I mean, Ben as

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Speaker 3: you put it, you know, people who are thinking of

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Speaker 3: Lamar as a locked in top two guy, they're going

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Speaker 3: to be disappointed. I'm kind of looking at him in

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Speaker 3: that way and taking the negative approach of he's not

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Speaker 3: a top two guy. He's probably not a top five guy.

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Speaker 3: So he's someone I am relatively low on this week,

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Speaker 3: but you are relatively high on him. It will be

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Speaker 3: interesting to see how this shakes out. Sean. I'm going

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Speaker 3: to give you the first bite of the juicy juicy

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Speaker 3: apple here. Who are you relatively high on? So I'm

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Speaker 3: pretty high on Jared Goff this week. He opens my

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Speaker 3: Week ten projections as my QB seven.

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Speaker 7: You know, he's coming off that brutal four turnover game

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Speaker 7: at Miami that was before thereby, but I see him

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Speaker 7: bouncing back in a big way against Seattle. You know

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Speaker 7: that they've allowed the most fantasy points against opposing quarterbacks.

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Speaker 7: The total for this game, I believe it's the highest

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Speaker 7: of the week at fifty five and a half. So

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Speaker 7: this is likely going to be a shootout. And one

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Speaker 7: of the downsides of GoF is his passing touchdowns are

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Speaker 7: pretty low, but this week I think the scoring environment

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Speaker 7: sets up for a two to three touchdown game. And

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Speaker 7: plus it's super easy to stack him with either Robert Woods,

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Speaker 7: Cooper Cup or both. You know, those guys are a

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Speaker 7: target funnel, so he's easily stackable in GPPs and the

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Speaker 7: other guy. It's pretty obvious. But Josh Allen at QB two,

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Speaker 7: I just think he's back to being you know, the

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Speaker 7: sky high ceiling Josh Allen. I think, you know, with

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Speaker 7: John Brown out the past few games, that could have

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Speaker 7: been why he tended to struggle a bit. But John

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Speaker 7: Brown looks fully healthy again, and no coincidence. We saw

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Speaker 7: a massive from Josh Allen been alluded to earlier. But this,

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Speaker 7: this Buffalo Arizona game is you know, death has Heaven,

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Speaker 7: So I'll be stacking this game heavily and having a

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Speaker 7: ton of Josh all I think we're back to having

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Speaker 7: him being, you know, just elite sealing Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: All Right, Raybond, who are you relatively high on?

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Speaker 4: Two guys? Jake Luton, you know for the Jags making

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Speaker 4: another star here. This game is like a fourteen point

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Speaker 4: spread in favor of the Packers. So you're going to

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Speaker 4: get some play from behind from Luton. He was willing

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Speaker 4: to throw the ball down the field in his first

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Speaker 4: start average depth of target of eight point five, and

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Speaker 4: that's a lot better than Gardner Minshew, who was thrown

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Speaker 4: underneath a lot more so. I think even if it

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Speaker 4: comes kind of in a little bit in garbage time,

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Speaker 4: Wutan could be valuable, especially in tournaments. At sixty four

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Speaker 4: hundred and then Drew Brees, I think a lot of

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Speaker 4: people are going to go to Jared Goff in that

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Speaker 4: Seattle Rams game at sixty five hundred on DraftKings, I

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Speaker 4: actually have Breeze ranked the head of golf right now

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Speaker 4: as my QB seven, and I think he's going to

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Speaker 4: be a lot lower owned than GoF. And this San

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Speaker 4: Francisco defense really not quite the same. You know, we

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Speaker 4: saw Aaron Rodgers kind of torch it up. I know

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Speaker 4: Sherman will be back, but Breeze at home. The implied

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Speaker 4: point total is over thirty right now. I think that's

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Speaker 4: a really good pivot off of GoF.

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Speaker 3: All right, a guy I'm high on and Ben you

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Speaker 3: mentioned him earlier, Aaron Rodgers. I have him ranked number

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Speaker 3: two overall. He has that you know, thirty three point total,

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Speaker 3: imply total highest on the slate he historically crushes at home,

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Speaker 3: especially as a favorite. He's playing at a near MVP level,

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Speaker 3: and the Jags have one of the league's worst pass defenses.

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Speaker 3: On top of that, Alan Lizard looks like this might

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Speaker 3: be the week that he finally returns, and the Packers

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Speaker 3: have three extra days to prepare because they played on

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night football. So everything just seems to align for

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Speaker 3: a smash spot right here. From Aaron Rodgers, Ben I

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Speaker 3: mentioned that I am low on Lamar Jackson, who is

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Speaker 3: someone you are low on.

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Speaker 6: A couple of guys here that I kind of just

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Speaker 6: want to talk about as guys that I really like

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Speaker 6: long term, but I am not probably going to use

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Speaker 6: a lot of this week. But again, it kind of

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Speaker 6: comes down to expectations. I think both the rookies, Justin

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Speaker 6: Herbert and Joe Burrow are guys that we should be

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Speaker 6: expecting to have huge second half and guys that we

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Speaker 6: want to be long on down the stretch. But both

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Speaker 6: are in kind of tough spots this week. Herbert's traveling

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Speaker 6: to Miami, traveling, you know, obviously west to east. I

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Speaker 6: believe that's in the later time block, so you know

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Speaker 6: he doesn't have the early body clock game, but it's still,

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Speaker 6: you know, a long travel week, not a great setup

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Speaker 6: on the road, and Burrows is even tougher at Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 6: So those are two guys and I'm probably not going

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Speaker 6: to be using a lot this week.

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Speaker 5: But are two guys that I absolutely love, you know

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Speaker 5: the rest of the way.

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Speaker 3: Sean, who are you low on?

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Speaker 7: So Ryan Tannehill plays Thursday night, so this is more

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Speaker 7: of a season long low on kind of guy. But

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Speaker 7: I have him ranked as my QB nineteen, So you know,

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Speaker 7: if you have him and you lean on him as

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Speaker 7: your QB one.

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Speaker 2: I would look for a one week rental. Can't play

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Speaker 2: him against the Colts.

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Speaker 7: You know, they've allowed the fewest points against opposing qbs,

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Speaker 7: and Tannehill's been struggling in the past couple of games,

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Speaker 7: specifically win under pressure, so I'll be fading him this weekend,

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Speaker 7: you know, season long leagues. And then the other guy

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Speaker 7: is Aaron Rodgers, and I agree with everything you said

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Speaker 7: f himant I view get Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 2: This price is for cash games.

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Speaker 7: He's probably worth every single penny because he probably has

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Speaker 7: the highest floor this week, but you know, I think

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Speaker 7: they're up to fourteen point favorites now, so I think

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Speaker 7: his ceiling might be capped against the Jaguars. I just

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Speaker 7: don't see him going completely bonkers. So I would say,

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Speaker 7: if if you're going to take a guy in this

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Speaker 7: price range for GPPs, I would lean on Kyler Murray

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Speaker 7: or Josh Allen.

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Speaker 2: I just think their ceilings are much much higher. But again,

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Speaker 2: you know, I love Aaron Rodgers this week.

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Speaker 7: I think he's a great cash game play, but you know,

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Speaker 7: for seven and one hundred for GPPs, it's a little

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Speaker 7: bit too pricey for me.

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Speaker 3: Ray On, who are you fading?

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Speaker 4: So Teddy Bridgewater going against Tampa Bay. You know, we

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Speaker 4: saw Drew Brees rip up Tampa Bay's defense last week

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Speaker 4: somewhat unexpected, you know, and Teddy had a pretty good

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Speaker 4: game against k C, So I think people may be

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Speaker 4: kind of on him in what somewhat of a high

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Speaker 4: total game. But I think that Tampa Bay is going

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Speaker 4: to come on a lot more focused this week after

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Speaker 4: really kind of sleepwalking through two straight primetime games. You know,

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Speaker 4: everyone's kind of talking about them. Bruce arians has called

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Speaker 4: out both sides of the ball, so I think this

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Speaker 4: will be a tough matchup for Teddy Bridgewater going again,

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Speaker 4: still one of the best defenses in the week, so

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Speaker 4: I have him outside the top twelve this week.

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Speaker 3: Okay, it is a time for I don't know if

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Speaker 3: i'd say everyone's favorite part of the show, but certainly

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Speaker 3: the part of the show that I look forward to,

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Speaker 3: and that is telling Sean that he is wrong. Sean,

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Speaker 3: give us the first quarterback prop. And by the way,

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Speaker 3: people should check out the Fantasy Labs player proptal, where

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Speaker 3: the props with the bet quality of ten have a

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Speaker 3: sixty percent win rate over the past two years, and

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Speaker 3: when player props are posted on Friday and Saturday, you

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Speaker 3: can bet them at bet MGM. Sean give us the

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Speaker 3: quarterback prop.

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Speaker 7: Well, you guys talked about him quite a bit earlier,

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Speaker 7: but I really want to nail down his passing our projection,

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Speaker 7: and that's Lamar Jackson. You know, he's only top two

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Speaker 7: hundred yards three times this year, so he's pretty reminiscent

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Speaker 7: of twenty eighteen Lamar Jackson, not twenty nineteen. So curious

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Speaker 7: to hear where you guys are on him earlier in

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Speaker 7: the week. But I have his over under right now

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Speaker 7: at two hundred and seven and a half passing yards,

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Speaker 7: are you guys above or blow that?

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Speaker 3: Okay, Sean, I'm just going to say my projection is

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Speaker 3: over at two hundred and twelve. But I know you

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Speaker 3: want me to take over. I'm going to take the

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Speaker 3: under here.

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Speaker 7: I'm not trying a trick I'm trying to get my

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Speaker 7: projection right, so there's there's no trickery afoot here.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Well, I have it projected at two hundred and twelve.

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Speaker 3: That's more the mean versus the median. So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to I'm going to take under here.

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Speaker 4: I will go over. I have it at two eighteen.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Joe Flacco just threw for two hundred and

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Speaker 4: sixty two yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots. I'm

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Speaker 4: not super concerned about the you know, the matchup. I

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Speaker 4: think the combined passing yard probably I think is interesting

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Speaker 4: because you have Cam Newton on the other side. He

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Speaker 4: also doesn't throw from many yards, so I think that's interesting.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm going over. I'm bound betting on some

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Speaker 4: regression for Lamar. As they get kind of comfortable with

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Speaker 4: you know, they're playing DuVernay more, They're probably will probably

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Speaker 4: work Dez in a little more West snaps for boy King,

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Speaker 4: which is probably a good thing at this point. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: taking it over.

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Speaker 5: I'll take that over too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I like a lot of what Raybond said, and I

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Speaker 6: think New England will play a little bit better this

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Speaker 6: week at home than then what we saw from them

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Speaker 6: against the Jets on Monday night and keep it at

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Speaker 6: least a little bit competitive.

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Speaker 5: I also think the Ravens want to get that passing

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Speaker 5: game kind of.

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Speaker 6: Figured out a little bit, so they've been kind of

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Speaker 6: pushing the ball down the field, not connecting as much

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Speaker 6: as you'd like to see.

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Speaker 5: I think they can hit on a couple of big ones.

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Speaker 3: One thing I would add here is there is the

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Speaker 3: possibility of Stefan Gilmour returning in this game. He's been

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Speaker 3: absent in the past two games, so that might change

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Speaker 3: things just a little bit if he's able to return.

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Speaker 8: And now back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about the running backs. Been the guys at

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Speaker 3: the top of our rankings right now we have Dalvin Cook,

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Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds. How do you see the top

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Speaker 3: of the running back position this week?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Cook and Kamara definitely belong.

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Speaker 6: And obviously if Christian McCaffrey's healthy and good to go,

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Speaker 6: I mean, for me, it would be a pretty clear

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Speaker 6: top three, which would include McCaffrey. He returned to a

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Speaker 6: pretty significant, you know, share of the work, caught a

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Speaker 6: bunch of passes. He's obviously banged up. We don't know

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Speaker 6: if he's going to play or not. And then the

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Speaker 6: other guy, I think I might take over Edmunds if

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Speaker 6: McCaffrey is out. As Aaron Jones, we talked about the

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Speaker 6: fourteen point home favorite line for Green Bay. Jones played

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Speaker 6: plenty when he came back this week. I think he's

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Speaker 6: you know, certainly looked healthy enough, and that was on

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Speaker 6: Thursday night. He's got ten days to get to get

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Speaker 6: right since you know, from that point forward, got to

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Speaker 6: really like him at home against the Jacksonville Rundy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, been really good point about McCaffrey. People should be

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Speaker 3: sure to monitor his injury status as we progress throughout

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Speaker 3: the week. If he ends up being healthy, if he

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Speaker 3: practices in full on Friday, say, then I imagine he

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Speaker 3: will be in our top three by the time we

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Speaker 3: adjust our rankings. And yeah, Aaron Jones certainly in the

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Speaker 3: top five for us. Who besides Aaron Jones and some

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Speaker 3: of the guys you mentioned there, are you relatively high

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Speaker 3: on do you think next to the consensus, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 6: Mean Edvands is another one that you got to love.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned he played ninety six percent of the snaps.

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Speaker 6: Just a monster role. But beyond sort of these top guys.

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Speaker 6: I'm really hoping we finally get Duke Johnson, you know,

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Speaker 6: in this workhorse role. We've talked about it for you know,

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Speaker 6: it feels like two decades. He actually pretty much played

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Speaker 6: like a workhorse this week. David Johnson went out early,

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Speaker 6: only played eleven percent of the snaps, and Duke was

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Speaker 6: in there for eighty one percent of the snaps. He

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Speaker 6: caught I believe it was four passes. He got a

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Speaker 6: one yard touchdown run. So he was, you know, being

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Speaker 6: used in all the different phases of the game that

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Speaker 6: you like to see. And now you have this hide

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Speaker 6: total spot at Cleveland revenge game narrative. You gotta love

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Speaker 6: Duke Johnson if he gets the chance to start, if

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Speaker 6: David Johnson can't come back from that concussion.

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Speaker 5: And then it was stealing signals. I'm kind of digging into, you.

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Speaker 6: Know a lot of the deeper trends, a couple of

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Speaker 6: kind of stealing signals the guys this week to.

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Speaker 5: Watch well, well really one.

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Speaker 6: The other one's kind of kind of a long a

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Speaker 6: long shot, but it would not surprise me if DeAndre

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Speaker 6: Washington played the full Gaskin role in his first game

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Speaker 6: with the Dolphins. It was pretty surprising to see Silvan Achmed,

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Speaker 6: a rookie UDFA, lead the team in snaps. They just

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Speaker 6: do not seem to like Jordan Howard at all. We've

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Speaker 6: kind of got that impression all season. They didn't use

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Speaker 6: Patrick Laird very much. And I suspect if Washington is

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Speaker 6: you know, he wasn't able to be activated last week

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Speaker 6: because of the COVID protocols. If he's able to be

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Speaker 6: activated this week, I suspect that it might mean that

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Speaker 6: Achmed is deactivated. You got to keep an eye on

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Speaker 6: Matt Brita as well, who had a hamstring injury. But

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Speaker 6: if Brita's not healthy, or even if he's you know, starting,

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Speaker 6: but it seems like he's gonna still be in kind

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Speaker 6: of a limited role. It would not be all surprising

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Speaker 6: to see Washington in his first game with Miami playing

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Speaker 6: over fifty percent of the snap So that's one that

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Speaker 6: I'm monitoring the practice reports throughout the week. He could

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Speaker 6: be kind of a cheap DFS guy. And then the

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Speaker 6: other one that I threw out there was Ryan Nall.

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Speaker 6: We don't know what's gonna happen with David Montgomery's concussion

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Speaker 6: as well, but after he left, Ryan Nall kind of

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Speaker 6: played as the running back.

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Speaker 5: And earlier in the year.

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Speaker 6: Tary Cohen went down, Cordero Patterson's package didn't really expand

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Speaker 6: they just gave David Montgomery all those snaps. It seems

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Speaker 6: like he's sort of just a you know, the gadget player.

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Speaker 6: They're not necessarily going to expand him. So there's a

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Speaker 6: possibility that we get Ryan Nall mint priced as you know,

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Speaker 6: a home actually home dog against Minnesota, but a reasonable

402
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Speaker 6: play at such a cheap price, who probably could catch

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Speaker 6: them passes. He caught four passes late this past week.

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Speaker 3: I love both of those calls, Washington especially, but I mean, Noal,

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Speaker 3: I mean, anytime you talk to me about a fullback

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Speaker 3: who has the opportunity of playing some running back and

407
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Speaker 3: a guy who produced in college, like actually had legit

408
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Speaker 3: running back production in college, and as you say, he

409
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Speaker 3: taught passes in the fourth quarter there and was actually

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Speaker 3: a pretty decent receiving back in college. So I think

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00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 3: has a better skill set than people would anticipate for

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Speaker 3: someone who now is you know, quote unquote just a fullback.

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Speaker 3: He's someone who actually is intriguing and you know, we

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Speaker 3: just we have no idea how that role is going

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Speaker 3: to play out, So there's some potential there, Ravon, I'm

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Speaker 3: kicking it to you first for running backs, who do

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Speaker 3: you like?

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Speaker 4: Well, First of all, I think at the top of

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Speaker 4: the board, you're getting Aaron Jones ten eleven k cheaper

420
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Speaker 4: than Camara and nineteen k cheaper than Christian McCaffrey against

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Speaker 4: that Jaggs run defense. Jones very well could be the

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Speaker 4: number one running back on the slate this week. So

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Speaker 4: I love him on the high end and on the

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Speaker 4: low end. This is another one that's kind of in

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Speaker 4: the vein of you know what Ben was talking about

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Speaker 4: in that Chargers Miami game on the Miami side, but

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Speaker 4: on the Chargers side, depending on you know, the status

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Speaker 4: of Justin Jackson, in the status of Troy Mayne, Pope,

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Speaker 4: we might get a Kaylin revenge game he played over

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Speaker 4: Joshua Kelly. They seem to kind of want to leave

431
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Speaker 4: Joshua Kelly in this like certain role that you know,

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Speaker 4: it's like thirty to forty percent of the of the

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Speaker 4: work and you know whoever's in there is going to

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Speaker 4: split the rest of it. So if those two guys

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Speaker 4: are out fully behind this bolage a revenge game in Miami.

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Speaker 3: Guys, if Duke Johnson goes off in a revenge game

437
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 3: and Calen Belage goes off in a revenge game in

438
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 3: the same week, I'm just I'm going to be very satisfied.

439
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 4: Hey, don't don't forget the did J D McKissick revenge

440
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 4: game Washington in Detroit, Oh.

441
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: I didn't even think of that.

442
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 4: So we got three and they're all priced back to back.

443
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 4: They're all literally fifty to fifty forty nine. We could

444
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 4: get all three in running back, running back flix.

445
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 3: This is this is too good, Sean, Who are you

446
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 3: high on?

447
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 7: So I'm going back to the Chase Edmunds Well this week,

448
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 7: I'm sure a lot of people are. But you know

449
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 7: last week he was he was pretty chocky, and he underperformed,

450
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 7: I would say, despite seeing twenty five carries. So you

451
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 7: know he's going to see a massive workload again. And

452
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 7: you know he ran around on seventy five percent dropbacks,

453
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 7: which was actually a little bit higher than I was

454
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 7: even projecting, So I mean, he has massive, massive ceiling

455
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 7: at this kind of usage. So I'm going to stick

456
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 7: with him this week and hopefully people jump off the

457
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 7: train a little.

458
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: Bit too early here. But the other guy is jadmmckissick.

459
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 7: And you know, I get to add in that hashtag

460
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 7: revenge game narrative as well, so thanks Raybon. But you know,

461
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 7: he ran around on seventy six percent of the dropbacks,

462
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 7: saw thirteen targets, nine receptions. I don't exactly expect that

463
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 7: kind of production again this week, but you know, Alex

464
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 7: Smith loves dumping it off to him, and this was

465
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 7: clear when Alex Smith came in. I believe his Week five,

466
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 7: I mean JD McKissick was targeted five times and he

467
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 7: was responsible for twenty seven of Alex Smith's thirty seven

468
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 7: passing yards.

469
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: So he loves dumping it off to j D McKissick.

470
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 7: So I think this could be a trend we see

471
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 7: going forward with Alex Smith under center, and you know,

472
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 7: with Alex Smith under center going for I think it's

473
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 7: you know, slam duck right now that he's going to

474
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 7: come back play the year. But you know, we should

475
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 7: see a similar game script this week, so I don't

476
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 7: see any reason why mcizick won't be heavily used in

477
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 7: the passing game. So I love him on a full

478
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 7: PPR side like DK at forty nine hundred.

479
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 3: Bucks, McKissick about to get that Jamal Charles passing game usage.

480
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 3: It's going to be something to behold. And Sean, I'm

481
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 3: with you on Edmunds. I have him ranked number one,

482
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 3: which I mean honestly might might be. I mean, I'll

483
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 3: say it's aggressive. I know it feels aggressive, but given

484
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 3: the usage he had last week and the fact that

485
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: their home favorites, it's a high scoring game, a high total,

486
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 3: and that matchup going against the Bills defense that literally

487
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 3: is dead last in PFF for rungrade. If we see

488
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 3: Edmunds get something close to the usage that he got

489
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 3: last week, I mean, I think he could totally smash

490
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: because he really is the only back there that they

491
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 3: are going with. I mean, you could see how Aaron

492
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 3: Jones easily ends up as the number one back on

493
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 3: the slate. That's I mean, you know something that you

494
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 3: could see happening. But at the same time, you have

495
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 3: Jamal Williams there, who could steal some of those carries

496
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 3: in a blowout game. If there's a blowout, I mean,

497
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 3: I think it's Chase Edmonds is the guy who massively benefits.

498
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 3: So I am very high on him this week, Ben,

499
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 3: who is someone that you are low on?

500
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 5: I'll take James Robinson. Love him. He's been fantastic, you know,

501
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 5: in any kind of season long. You know sense that

502
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 5: he was.

503
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 6: Basically free this offseason and then certainly been great for

504
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 6: DFS as well. But we didn't see him catch pass

505
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 6: last week.

506
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 5: He did get targeted twice, but you know, Rayvon hit

507
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 5: on it.

508
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 6: Jake Luton was throwing downfield a lot more at eight

509
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 6: point five yard average throw depth, and then Minsh has

510
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 6: been about a yard lower all season and particularly loves

511
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 6: to just kind of dump it off in those late

512
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 6: game situations. What's interesting with Robinson is he's been racking

513
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 6: up quite a bit of catches for a guy who's

514
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 6: actually not running a ton of routes as a percentage

515
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 6: of dropbacks most of the time, and I think a

516
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,239
Speaker 6: lot of that had to do with these dumpoffs late

517
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 6: game situations. And then in Week seven, his his routes

518
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 6: jumped way up to sixty nine percent of dropbacks with

519
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 6: Chris Thompson out, but Thompson came back last week, Robinson's

520
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 6: routes for dropback drop back down to fifty one percent. Still,

521
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 6: you know, a solid share for a number one running back,

522
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 6: but certainly not the high number that we've been seeing.

523
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 6: And now with Luton in a quarterback and you talk about, okay,

524
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 6: he's a he's a two touchdown roade dog, So the

525
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 6: rushing opportunity might not be where where we're hoping it

526
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 6: to be. I just don't really love the whole scenario

527
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 6: for him.

528
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: Ray Bond, who are you low on.

529
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 4: Going with the San Francisco Backs this week? That's kind

530
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 4: of a hard batfield to determine on a week two

531
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 4: week basis. Jared McKinnon played ahead of Jamichael Hasty last week,

532
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 4: but this Saints defense is up to number four in

533
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: run defense DVOA.

534
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:52,679
Speaker 5: You know, we saw the.

535
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 4: Bucks essentially have to abandon the run game completely against

536
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 4: them last week, and they are ten point favorites in

537
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 4: this one. And you know, it's just so hard to

538
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 4: predict what's going to happen in Shanahan's backfield. One week,

539
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 4: it's McKinnon one week, it's hasty. Next time, McKinnon's like

540
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: got tired legs. So I think that's just going to

541
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 4: be a risky situation all season, maybe even you know,

542
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 4: most are comes back, so it's just going to be

543
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 4: really tough to figure out. So I'm off the singer ran.

544
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 3: Back Sean, who do you dislike?

545
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 6: Well?

546
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 7: I dislike Devin Singletary this weekend sort of going forward,

547
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 7: he's my running back thirty one, so you know, he's

548
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 7: outside of the RB two value and more of a

549
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 7: flex start decision where I'm leaning towards this set in

550
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 7: all formats. I mean, he hit rock bottom last week.

551
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 7: He saw two carries for one yard. Zach Moss seems

552
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 7: to be taking over more of the early down work,

553
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 7: and you know Singletary he's been getting it a bit

554
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 7: more of the passing down work. But you know, forty

555
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 7: eight percent routes run per drop back with Josh Allen's

556
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 7: QB is you know, two to three catches a week

557
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 7: kind of production you're going to get. He's not really

558
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 7: going to see goal line work between Zach Moss and

559
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 7: Josh Allen. He's sort of the third wheel in that regard.

560
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 7: So you know, going forward, Devin sing Military's value has

561
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 7: you know, fallen significantly over the past couple of weeks.

562
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 7: And the other guys, you know, I'm not low on

563
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 7: them because I love the matchup and I love them

564
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 7: literally is Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. I mean, they're

565
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 7: both six to eight hundred this week, and you know,

566
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 7: I just think when they're both active, it really.

567
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: Lowers their floor end ceiling. So it's hard to really

568
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:23,719
Speaker 2: pick one.

569
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 7: You know, I'm expecting Nick Chubb to return this week

570
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 7: if for some reason he's out again, Kareem Hunt will

571
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 7: be you know, a free square against this Texans defense.

572
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 7: But just with them both active, it's hard to trust

573
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 7: either one. Despite that, you know, dream matchup this week

574
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 7: against the Texans, and.

575
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: One guy I am low on, and I want to

576
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 3: contextualize it a little bit is James Connor. I have

577
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: him at number ten, so it's not as if I'm

578
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 3: really all that low on him. But thinking if Roethlisberger

579
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 3: is out because of the knee or because of the

580
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 3: COVID situation, I think it will be a tough a

581
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: tough game for Connor. I think there will be fewer

582
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: touchdown opportunities we kind of saw that Pittsburgh offense last

583
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,479
Speaker 3: year when it was shackled to a quarterback other than

584
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: Ben Roethlisberger, and it just wasn't. It wasn't a situation

585
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 3: that overall was positive for really anyone in the offense.

586
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 3: So if in fact, we do see Ben Roethlisberger out

587
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 3: this week, you know, there kind of might be this

588
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 3: narrative of, Hey, there're gonna be more more carries for

589
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 3: James Connor, and that actually might end up being the case.

590
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: But I think we've kind of seen that story play

591
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: out recently with Ezekiel Elliott, where a quarterback is out

592
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 3: and it looks like, okay, let's pivot to the running

593
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 3: back and that just ends up not being something that's fruitful.

594
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: I could see that with James Connor, so something something

595
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 3: just to keep in mind. I still like him, but

596
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 3: more as a low end running back one instead of

597
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 3: what I think will probably be more of a consensucy

598
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 3: like mid range RB one ranking for him. Sean give

599
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 3: us the running back player prop.

600
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 7: So I love this one because a guilty pleasure of

601
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 7: mine is projecting running backs that are just going ballistic.

602
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 7: If you recall, you know, during the playoffs last year,

603
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 7: I think it was. We were debating Derek Henry's prop

604
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 7: at being like one twenty to one thirty rushing yards.

605
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 7: So this week we're going Dalvin Cook, who's coming off

606
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 7: one hundred and sixty three yard and now a two

607
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 7: hundred and six yard rushing game. So I don't even

608
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 7: know if I could set this line high enough, but

609
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 7: I'll try. Fortunately, he's playing the Bears, who might be

610
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 7: able to slow him down. But I have his rushing

611
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 7: projection right now at ninety six and a half.

612
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 3: I will take the under. I have it at ninety

613
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: four and a half, so we're very close.

614
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: I'll go under as well.

615
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 6: I'm always going to be the guy that fades rushing efficiency,

616
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 6: especially long runs. He's hit on some big ones. Delvin

617
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 6: Cook is so good at football though, it's really hard

618
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 6: to take the under on anything.

619
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 4: With this guy. I have it at ninety eight, so

620
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 4: Friedman's two yards out there up two yards over. But hey, man,

621
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 4: like this is one of those games where you don't

622
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 4: expect it to get away from Minnesota. On the other side,

623
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 4: like you don't expect Chicago to put up a ton

624
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 4: of points, which a lot of teams have actually done

625
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 4: on Minnesota uncharacteristically, you know, for them. But when that's

626
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 4: the case, they run even more. And so I think,

627
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 4: you know, Cook, maybe he's not quite as efficient, but

628
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 4: I actually think he could be above you know, his

629
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 4: his cat right, he could be in that same range

630
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,479
Speaker 4: that he's been in the last two weeks where he's

631
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 4: averaged twenty six carries. Like, I think he could get

632
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 4: there again just because of the game script. Chicago's not

633
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 4: going to you know, run away with the game.

634
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 3: All right, Let's look at these wide receivers and been

635
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 3: the guys we have at the top of our rankings,

636
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 3: Davante Adams, Stefan Diggs, Tyler Lockett, I think you can

637
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: make a case for a few other guys who could

638
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: be in the top three. How do you see the

639
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: top of the board this week?

640
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 5: The guy that I really want to drill into is

641
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 5: Michael Thomas.

642
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 6: He had a pretty easy five for fifty one game

643
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 6: in a game that there that breeze spread it around

644
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 6: at a pretty historic right there, you know, talking. I

645
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 6: thought over the broadcast that, however, many different guys caught pass.

646
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 6: I think he ended up breaking an NFL record or something.

647
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 6: But like everybody, the water boy caught a pass and

648
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 6: they absolutely dominated. They took the air out of the

649
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 6: ball a little bit. Now they get San Francisco at home,

650
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 6: it's a good week to be on New Orleans. You

651
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 6: know some of their key pieces. You know, somebody mentioned

652
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 6: Breeze a little bit earlier as a solid play. Thomas

653
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 6: is now going up against this defense that just had

654
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 6: ten catches put on them by Devonte Adams, twelve by

655
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 6: DK Metcalf the week before fourteen by DeAndre Hopkins back

656
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 6: in Week one. They've given up double digit catches to

657
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 6: a lot of these elite number one type receivers. Just

658
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 6: sort of a reminder on Michael Thomas's upside. Like he

659
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 6: didn't play a ton of Week seventeen last year, he

660
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 6: had not a great wildcard game, but prior to that,

661
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 6: through Week sixteen of last season, he closed the season

662
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 6: with at least eight catches in one hundred yards in

663
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 6: eight of nine games tds and six of them. You know,

664
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 6: if you're looking at like DK scoring particularly, it is

665
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 6: just crazy how how quickly he can get up there

666
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 6: and scoring. When he can catch eight to ten balls

667
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 6: and hit that one hundred yard bonus, he can hit

668
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 6: twenty five points easily, without even scoring a touchdown, and

669
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 6: then if you add in one two touchdowns on top

670
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 6: of that, he can completely break a slate. So I'm

671
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 6: certainly going to have Michael Thomas exposure this week.

672
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: Anyone who's a little bit lower down that you think

673
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: you were, you will still be relatively high on this week.

674
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 4: Yeah.

675
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 6: Jarvis Landry in that high total game we talked about

676
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 6: against Houston, he had forty four percent of the targets

677
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 6: in that Week eight win game before the bye, I

678
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 6: think it was eleven targets. They you know, it wasn't

679
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 6: a great atmosphere for passing. He had a touchdown overturned

680
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 6: on like a kind of a diving play. But with

681
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 6: a little Beckham out, there's a lot of opportunity in

682
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 6: the Cleveland pass offense. This looks like a game where

683
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 6: they will throw a little bit more than they usually do,

684
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 6: and I expect Landry to get back to being sort

685
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 6: of this high target guy that we've seen in his past.

686
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 6: He's a really good like season long by low right

687
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 6: now where there was a lot of focus on Rashard

688
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 6: Higgins and some other guys after Beckham went down. Richie

689
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 6: James had this monster Thursday night game. Now we have

690
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 6: Kendrick Born back on the COVID list, we might get

691
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 6: Deebo Samuel back, we will get Brandon Ayuk back for

692
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 6: San Francisco, but they still don't have Kittle. They still

693
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 6: have a huge target vacuum, and Deebo, even when he's

694
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 6: been healthy, has basically been playing a bit role. I

695
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 6: mean they've been almost all of his touches have been

696
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 6: on these jet motion TIT passes and not at one

697
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 6: hundred percent. I don't think he's somebody that's going to

698
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 6: really affect the downfield passing target shares. That's where Richie

699
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 6: James was really good this past week. If he's in

700
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 6: that Kendrick Born role, that third wide receiver role, even

701
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 6: with Deebo in the lineup, I think he's a really good,

702
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 6: cheap kind of punt DFS option and we can go

703
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 6: back to that well after he put up over thirty points,

704
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 6: really good correlation played with Michael Thomas two or Kamara,

705
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 6: you know, I like getting into that game that way.

706
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 6: And then another one is DJ Shark. We just talked

707
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 6: about again the downfield passing from Lowton. It's not a

708
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 6: great matchup necessarily, but he locked onto Chark. We saw

709
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 6: a top five var yards figure from Shark this week.

710
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,239
Speaker 6: That's a huge key to his potential to put up

711
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 6: these splash weeks. The area ards that downfield passing matchup

712
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 6: not being great.

713
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 5: I still like Shark. I'm still you know, bullish on

714
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 5: chart going for because of the quarterback switch.

715
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: Been on Twitter after Richie James went off and de

716
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: weighted on Thursday Night Football. You know, I started doing

717
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 3: some research and posting some things on Twitter, and I'm

718
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: I'm sort of joking when I say this, but I'm

719
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 3: sort of serious, you know, based on what Richie James

720
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: did in college, and also I mean I don't want

721
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 3: to count like high school numbers or anything, but you know,

722
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: sort of like the type of player that he is,

723
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 3: and you can see that in his college numbers, his

724
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 3: type of production. Uh, based on his athletic testing and

725
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 3: then analyzing his NFL production. He doesn't have much of

726
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,719
Speaker 3: it yet, but he's been pretty efficient when he's been

727
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 3: getting his opportunities.

728
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 7: Uh.

729
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 3: And he's a pretty good return man.

730
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 7: You know.

731
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: You put all of those things together and I would

732
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: say that he has maybe a two percent chance of

733
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: turning into a low key version of awesome Antonio Brown.

734
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 3: Do you think that that two percent number is too

735
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 3: high or too low?

736
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 5: I think probably too.

737
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 9: That was building to a crescendo and ending on Antonio

738
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 9: Brown was pretty fantastic. I don't know if you know

739
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 9: one out of fifty times Ritchie James is going to

740
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 9: have Antonio Brown type ceiling. But I certainly think everything

741
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 9: you just said is a reason to be bullish on

742
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:22,720
Speaker 9: James going forward.

743
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 3: Okay, Sean, who are you relatively high on?

744
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 7: I'm pretty high on kJ Hammler this week for GPPs.

745
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 7: He's thirty eight hundred. This week he faces the Raiders,

746
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 7: and it does look like he's starting a breakout now

747
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 7: that he's healthy. You know, he flashed a lot of

748
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 7: his potential last week with his six catches for seventy

749
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 7: five yards and even got to carry for fifteen saw

750
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 7: ten targets. I think Drew Locke has also looked pretty

751
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 7: good that the past two games. Is confidence looks like

752
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 7: it's there, So I kind of want to buy a

753
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 7: low on kJ Hamler before that the inevitable really big

754
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 7: breakout game. So I think he's worth a flyer at

755
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 7: thirty hundred. Like I said, against this easy matchup against

756
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 7: the Raiders. And the other guy I mentioned him earlier

757
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 7: is John Brown. You know he's he's back in the

758
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 7: wide receiver three discussion, certainly in play in GPPs at

759
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 7: fifty three hundred. He finally appears to be healthy again.

760
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 7: He saw ten targets last week, got eight catches for

761
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 7: nine nine yards. You know, he's a sneaky stack with

762
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 7: Josh Allen. Obviously Alan and Diggs is the way to go.

763
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 7: But you know, if you want to be a little

764
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 7: bit concroering, you can stack Alan with John Brown. And

765
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 7: you know this is a hashtag revenge game at Arizona,

766
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 7: so a nice little bonus there.

767
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, I love Brown this week.

768
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: I love the call on kJ Hamler. Fantastic matchup against

769
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 3: slot cornerback LaMarcus Joiner for the Raiders, who just allows

770
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 3: seemingly every target in his direction to be completed. Chris,

771
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 3: who are you relatively high on?

772
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: So?

773
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 4: I like Jerry Judy again this week in that same game.

774
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 4: I like Handler too, But Judy has been, you know,

775
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 4: really establishing a rapport with Drew Locke, you know, double

776
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 4: digit targets in back to back games, first hundred yard

777
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,240
Speaker 4: game last week, and he's still pretty cheap at fifty

778
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 4: six hundred on draftings, so I think he's going to

779
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 4: he might be the talk this week, So we'll see

780
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 4: how that goes. But I think, you know, every every

781
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: reason to be in lineups this week is in cash

782
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 4: and then going down a list. I think an interesting

783
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 4: kind of tournament player, a guy that if you need

784
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 4: some upside in your fantasy lineups. Jalen Rager, you know,

785
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 4: forty two hundred, a guy that you know came back

786
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 4: ran about seventy percent of the routes last week. But

787
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 4: who's that was his first game back from injury. When

788
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 4: he played his second straight game earlier in the year.

789
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 4: It's the only time he's done that. He was up

790
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 4: to eighty four percent of the routes, and you would

791
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 4: expect that because he's the outside guy. Ward is the

792
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 4: slot guy, and you're going against the Giants. The Giants

793
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 4: have had issues all season long at that number two

794
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 4: corner spot. Ryan Lewis they benched.

795
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 3: I think it was.

796
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 4: Isaac Yetomer. I don't even know how to pronounce his name,

797
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 4: but they've had a involving door at number two. And

798
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 4: Bradbury's playing well, you know, so he'll probably be on

799
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 4: fold them. So really like Jalen Rager is kind of

800
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 4: a sneaky tournament play this week.

801
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 3: All right, ray Bon, to your point on Jerry Judy,

802
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 3: he's really progressed in the last couple of weeks and

803
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 3: it's coincided with them moving him out of the slot

804
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 3: and into the perimeter. And it's sort of like what

805
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 3: we saw out of Justin Jefferson in week three when

806
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: he moved from the slot to the perimeter. It's just

807
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 3: really opened up Judy's game and he's being targeted much

808
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 3: more aggressively now, which is awesome. And in fact that

809
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 3: connection is actually to the point where Jerry Judy is

810
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 3: now number eight overall in air yards and yards after

811
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: the catch combined on a per game basis, And like

812
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 3: that's up there with like guys who are at the

813
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 3: top of the league, you know, like Devonte Adams, DK Metcalf,

814
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Kill, Stefan Diggs. Those are

815
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 3: the top six. So like this is a metric that

816
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: like actually kind of has some forward looking significance. If

817
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: a guy is popping in this, like the odds are

818
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 3: pretty good that he's going to end up putting up

819
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 3: some fantasy points. So Jerry Judy, I'm with you there.

820
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 3: He really is intriguing this week. Another guy that I

821
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 3: like quite a bit is Terry McLaurin, who's number three

822
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: on that list of air yards and yards after the

823
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: catch combined that Detroit pass defense is simply not good.

824
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 3: McLaurin is just a total dominator in terms of the

825
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 3: way that he's being used in that Washington offense. And

826
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 3: I honestly don't think I might be wrong about this,

827
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 3: but I don't think that the switch from Kyle Allen

828
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: to Alex Smith is going to be that big of

829
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 3: a hindrance. It might be something that helps him a

830
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 3: little bit. Maybe he has a quarterback who's a little

831
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 3: more accurate and getting the ball to him. But I mean,

832
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 3: I just I think that McLaurin is basically quarterback proof

833
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 3: at this point, in the way that DeAndre Hopkins for

834
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 3: years was quarterback proof unless he had some one incredibly

835
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 3: bad throwing to him in Houston. McLaurin just seems so

836
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 3: talented that I think the quarterback almost doesn't matter. So

837
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: McLaurin is a guy I like quite a bit. Ben,

838
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: I fear that you are going to come in and

839
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 3: be like, you know what, one guy I am low

840
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 3: on is Terry McLaurin, and let me tell you why.

841
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 3: But who are you low on this week?

842
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 6: No, definitely not low on him, but I it is.

843
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 6: It's a very qualified one. This is a guy I'm

844
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 6: going to play in DFS. I'm going to start everywhere

845
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 6: that I have him. Obviously, he's one of our top

846
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 6: guys for the entire week, but I do think I'm

847
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 6: a little bit lower than where I expect DeAndre Hopkins'

848
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 6: ownership to wind up. It's sort of some of it

849
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 6: is going to be a numbers game because I want

850
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 6: to have exposure to Michael Thomas. I want to have

851
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 6: exposure to several of these other top receivers we talked about.

852
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 6: But even when I'm game stacking this game, I think

853
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 6: I prefer Diggs on the other side. It's not necessarily

854
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 6: a knock on Hopkins, but I think his production has

855
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 6: been a little bit, a little bit up and down.

856
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 6: We have Kirk coming back. This past week, you know,

857
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 6: was obviously Hopkins' worst game against Dallas. He had a

858
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 6: long catch and run late that helped him wind up

859
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 6: with a two for seventy three line, but it was

860
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 6: looking like a down game. He's had a couple of

861
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 6: these games where the Arizona offense is resembling more closely

862
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 6: kind of what some of us thought coming in, which

863
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,359
Speaker 6: was a more spread offense, that the target share would

864
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 6: be more spread out. And again with Kirk playing well

865
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 6: lately and coming on, I'm just and then also you know,

866
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 6: I'm high on Chase Edmonds this week, taking up a

867
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 6: large share of their offensive production. It's just sort of

868
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 6: a thing where I wind up a little lower on Hopkins.

869
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 6: I'm not happy about it. I'm probably gonna get burned.

870
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 3: Well, Ben, I don't know if this is a good

871
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 3: or bad It's probably a bad time, let's be honest.

872
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: But I'm right there with you. Hopkins is the guy

873
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 3: that I was gonna highlight. I have him ranked number

874
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 3: eleven in our rankings, and as you say, his volume

875
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 3: has tailed off since Christian Kirk returned in Week four.

876
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: He has a tough matchup against t Davis White, who

877
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 3: has struggled a little bit this year, but I think

878
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 3: it's still one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

879
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 3: And we saw last week with Xavion Howard, who is

880
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 3: being used for the most part in shadow coverage on

881
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins. We saw Kyler Murray exhibit the willingness to

882
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: kind of take what the defense would give him and

883
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 3: put the ball elsewhere. And if White is able to

884
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 3: do a good enough of a job against Hopkins, I

885
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,240
Speaker 3: think we could see again a similar situation where Kyler

886
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 3: Murray just takes what the defense gives him, doesn't force

887
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 3: it to DeAndre Hopkins, and goes elsewhere. I still think

888
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 3: of him as a wide receiver one. You know, he's

889
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 3: still in the top twelve, but more of a lower

890
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 3: end wide receiver one as opposed to, you know, the

891
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 3: top five guy that he typically is. Sean. Who are

892
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 3: you low on?

893
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: I'm actually low on Michael Thomas. He's my wide receiver eleven.

894
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 7: So obviously he's a must start in season long leagues,

895
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 7: but at seventy four hundred, I just can't get there

896
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 7: in dfs.

897
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: You know, the Saints made it a point to spread

898
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 2: it or round last week.

899
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 7: I think they had what twelve different pass catchers, So

900
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 7: that's that's a problem for a guy like Thomas who

901
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 7: kind of relies on volume. He's never been a huge

902
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 7: touchdown guy. You know, compared to you know, his massive

903
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 7: volume or yards per catch, So that's a big concern

904
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 7: for me. They're favored by about ten points this week,

905
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 7: so I just don't see them giving Thomas a ton

906
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,919
Speaker 7: of targets here, So it's going to be another week

907
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 7: for me to get him, you know, inside my top five,

908
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 7: I think, and the other guy in low on is

909
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 7: Travis Folgum. He definitely deserves to be, you know, once

910
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 7: his top target going forward. I just think that you know,

911
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 7: Dallas Godder and Jalen Reagor returned for the bye, they

912
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 7: probably weren't.

913
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 2: One hundred percent healthy.

914
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 7: They should be much better coming out of the by,

915
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 7: and then we might be getting el Sean Jeffrey this week.

916
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 7: I think I've said that every week so far, but

917
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 7: I think when he returns that that's just going to

918
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 7: a lower Fulghum's target share just a bit, and I

919
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 7: think he's been relying on that, you know, to be

920
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 7: a wide receiver two, but I think going forward he's

921
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 7: going to be more of a low and wide receiver two,

922
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 7: wide receiver three once all these pass catchers get healthy.

923
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 3: Raymond, who are.

924
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 5: You lo on?

925
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 4: Darius Slayton. Slayton is a guy who is going to

926
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 4: get blanketed by Darius Slay in this Philly game. Philly

927
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 4: allowing thirty six point nine schedule adjusted yards per game

928
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 4: to wide receiver ones not ideal. And then another guy

929
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 4: is Henry Ruggs, the third just not getting the targets

930
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 4: that we need him to get. And Denver has actually

931
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 4: been pretty good. You know, we'll see if they get

932
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 4: their cornerbacks healthy. But I just don't see Derek Carr

933
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 4: kind of testing his defense down the field when he's

934
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 4: having success underneath the guys like Waller and Nolson Aguilar.

935
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 4: So Henry Ruggs, even though he's running a good amount

936
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 4: of routes, just I don't think he's usable right now.

937
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 3: All right, Sean, give us the prop.

938
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 2: I'm going with Cooper Cup receiving yards.

939
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:47,959
Speaker 7: He's a guy where you know, he's my wide receiver

940
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 7: eight right now, and I'm worried that the next projection

941
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 7: sweep I do, he'll be my top five. So I

942
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 7: need you guys to kind of temper my expectations here.

943
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 7: But I have his overrunner at seventy three and a

944
00:43:58,480 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 7: half for sevny yards.

945
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: The problem is that I have Cooper Cup as my

946
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 3: number two wide receiver. Oh okay, so which is not

947
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 3: going to help Yeah, I'm not. I'm not going to

948
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 3: help you temper your expectations. But he's got like a

949
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: twenty six percent target chair and you know it's it's

950
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 3: a game that's probably going to be high scoring. He

951
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 3: could be going against the number three cornerback, number three

952
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 3: slot cornerback. Let me rephrase that for the Seahawks. So

953
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,320
Speaker 3: it could be like one of the best matchups that

954
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 3: any wide receiver has on the slate. And he had

955
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 3: twenty one targets the week the week before the bye.

956
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 3: So yeah, I will I will take the over there. Unfortunately,

957
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 3: because I know I'm being very fishy here, but man,

958
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 3: that that twenty six percent market share and the matchup

959
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 3: just it really pushes the projection for me.

960
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:52,720
Speaker 2: I agree, I agree.

961
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 6: I don't think you're being fishy at all. I think

962
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 6: it's an easy over. I mean, the Seattle for the

963
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,919
Speaker 6: season is such a fantastic match for receivers, and there's

964
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 6: a bunch of reasons for that. But it's going to continue.

965
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 6: They are passing with intent. I talked about the early

966
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 6: down pass right over expectation stat earlier. That is such

967
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 6: an important stat for the teams that are willing to,

968
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 6: you know, throw the ball. Obviously they're passing with intent,

969
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 6: but that leads to not just like more efficiency because

970
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 6: passing is more efficient, it leads to more plays because

971
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 6: in completion stop the clock. It leads to more fantasy

972
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 6: production for the whole offense across the board. And then

973
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 6: Seattle also can't stop anything. So you know, we know

974
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 6: this about Seattle, but I love and then you're talking

975
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,800
Speaker 6: about third, third string slot cornerback. I mean, come on,

976
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 6: you gotta love the over.

977
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I agree, I'm going over for all the reasons.

978
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 4: Ben and Friedman just mentioned ninety seven percent of the

979
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 4: routes two three games ago, and then ninety one, then

980
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 4: ninety eight. Everyone was kind of concerned about Tyler Higbee

981
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 4: and his role, but Cooper cup is running the most

982
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: routes on the team now. He's up to ninety two

983
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,919
Speaker 4: percent for this season. Only one time in the last

984
00:45:56,000 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 4: six games was he under ninety one percent of the

985
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 4: routes per drop back. So he's going to be in

986
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 4: the game. And I have Jared Goff projected for about

987
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 4: about one and a half attempts more than he usually

988
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 4: throws just because the Seattle defense has been kind of forcing.

989
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 4: You know, they play a shootout style, so they're forcing

990
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 4: teams to pass more and that's where they're vulnerable. They're

991
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 4: really going to run defense is Seattle, So I doubt

992
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 4: McVeigh is going to try to like go crazy with

993
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: the run game in this one, which is what they've

994
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: been doing. So there's actually potential for even more because

995
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 4: the Rams haven't been passing much. Aside from that, that

996
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 4: last game.

997
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 2: Top five Here we Come, you guys didn't help. He's

998
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 2: going there.

999
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, but I think you know he's coming off to

1000
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 7: that twenty target game. But he had the buy in between,

1001
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 7: so hopefully that limits the amount of point chasers that

1002
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 7: would be correct in chasing the points here. But yeah,

1003
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 7: hopefully his ownership isn't too ridiculous because he did have

1004
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 7: that buy to kind of you know, have people cool

1005
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 7: off on him a bit.

1006
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sean, sometimes we'll have three people go against you

1007
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 3: and you're totally fine with that position. Is that a

1008
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 3: situation like now, what do you feel like now like

1009
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: it was a line that was too low?

1010
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 7: This helps, honestly, this helps me be a little bit

1011
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 7: more confident moving him inside my top five.

1012
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 2: I don't think, where'd you having number two? No, I

1013
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 2: don't think. I don't think he'll be that high, but

1014
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 2: he'll be. He'll be in the top five after this.

1015
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 3: I'm him six.

1016
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 4: I have him six, so I still have five guys

1017
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 4: ahead of him. But you know, just kind of when

1018
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 4: you put his routes run together against the rest of

1019
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 4: his teammates, because remember, you're he's only really competing with

1020
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 4: like Robert Woods, like the rest of these guys aren't

1021
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:25,240
Speaker 4: getting heavy we targeted.

1022
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 10: So I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast.

1023
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 10: I want to make sure you know about the Locked

1024
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 10: On podcast network. Locked on as a daily podcast on

1025
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 10: your favorite team.

1026
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,919
Speaker 5: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

1027
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 5: on of the Dallas marriage Can everybody sh the Lockdown

1028
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 5: Lakers podcast?

1029
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:40,560
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1030
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 10: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

1031
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,120
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1032
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,000
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1033
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:53,480
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1034
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about these tight ends. And uh,

1035
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 3: I feel like by week ten every year, you know,

1036
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: there's this statement of like, oh, tied end, it's it's

1037
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 3: a real wasteland, but it really is a wasteland. You

1038
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 3: have Darren Waller at the top of the rankings, and

1039
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 3: then after that, I think you can make a case

1040
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 3: for like ten different guys to be in the top three.

1041
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,479
Speaker 3: But then we have a Waller uh, and then Hunter

1042
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: Henry and T J. Hawkinson.

1043
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 4: Uh.

1044
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 3: I mean really, how do you how do you see

1045
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 3: the top three at the position this week?

1046
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1047
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 6: I mean with Kelsey out, I think those guys and

1048
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 6: then you could probably make a case for Noah Fan

1049
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 6: as well. But the one that I'm that I'm going

1050
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 6: to be, you know, have in my top three is

1051
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 6: Dallas Goddard. I mean I think probably have him second.

1052
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 6: I'm just really bullish on him right now. You know,

1053
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 6: we know that Foldham has been very good and Ragger's

1054
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,280
Speaker 6: back as well, but I just have to believe that Goddard,

1055
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,439
Speaker 6: you know, with Earth's out, is going to be seeing

1056
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 6: a pretty significant target share. I feel like he's got

1057
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 6: one of the stronger floors at a wasteland position. Like

1058
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 6: you said, you know, Hawkinson, Fant those guys I love

1059
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 6: long term, We're just not seeing them consistently produced in

1060
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 6: a way that makes you know, me feel comfortable about their.

1061
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,439
Speaker 5: Floor at all. And then you know Henry is seeing

1062
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 5: the volume.

1063
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 6: But also not necessarily consistently producing a lot of these

1064
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 6: guys are.

1065
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 5: Tough to trust. Goddard, you know, for me, it's kind

1066
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 5: of a gut feeling.

1067
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 6: I don't really have like a big reason for it

1068
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 6: because he's been out for a while, but feels like

1069
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 6: he's the safest.

1070
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 3: All right, Ravon, I'm kicking it to you first. For

1071
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 3: tight ends, who do you like?

1072
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 4: Well, I'm sure Sean's gonna hate this, but going back

1073
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,720
Speaker 4: to Evan Ingram, It's Freeman mentioned it. It's a wasteland anyway.

1074
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 4: But look at this matchup versus Washington, number thirty two

1075
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 4: in DVOA against tight ends, most schedule adjusted yards per

1076
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 4: game allowed to tight ends seventy two point two per

1077
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 4: Football Outsiders, and Evan Ingram still running between you know,

1078
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 4: seventy and ninety seventy seven in ninety five percent of

1079
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 4: the routes in every game. You know he should be

1080
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 4: around eighty at least. So I have him as a

1081
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:07,839
Speaker 4: top ten tight end.

1082
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 5: He's burned me before.

1083
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, there's not much

1084
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,400
Speaker 4: to speak of, and he has just just a ridiculous matchup.

1085
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, he has to be in the top ten just

1086
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: based on how much he's being targeted. But it's amazing

1087
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 3: that a guy who is being used like this is

1088
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 3: still underwhelming so much on a per target basis. I mean,

1089
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 3: he's got what was it like, five point two yards

1090
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: per target this year. I mean, given how talented he is,

1091
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 3: that number just feels like an abomination. But I mean

1092
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,720
Speaker 3: nine ten to ten targets over his past three weeks,

1093
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 3: Like that guy has to be locked into the top ten. Sean,

1094
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: who are you relatively high on?

1095
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: Yeah? So this week that tight ends really interesting.

1096
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 7: You know, it's Waller number one and that's wide open

1097
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 7: for number two, and it's kind of embarrassing that Mark

1098
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 7: Andrews isn't even an option. He should be the number

1099
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 7: two tight end here, but he's basically Darren Fells without

1100
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:00,320
Speaker 7: the touchdowns now, so can't can't do that. But I

1101
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 7: love the call by Ben. I think Dallas Goddard definitely

1102
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 7: has top three upside this week. You know, he returned

1103
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 7: before thereby he was a little bit rusty, but he

1104
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 7: did run a route on seventy four percent of the

1105
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 7: routes per dropback. I think, you know, he's gonna come

1106
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 7: out of the buy pretty much one hundred percent. So

1107
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 7: with zach Ertz still out, you know, sign me up

1108
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 7: for Dallas Goddard, especially at forty two hundred. I think

1109
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 7: he has legit top three upside this week, and I

1110
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 7: want to be on him before you know, he's back

1111
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 7: on everyone's radar as opposed to after, So I'll have

1112
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:30,799
Speaker 7: a ton of Goddard this week.

1113
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:33,720
Speaker 3: I like the cases that you guys made for Goddard,

1114
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 3: and you know, thinking about this, realizing I'm probably a

1115
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 3: little bit too low on him, I will I will

1116
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 3: need to adjust him back up my rankings. The guy

1117
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,760
Speaker 3: I have at number two is Gronk, which just feels

1118
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:48,479
Speaker 3: so dirty, but he has his sixteen percent target share

1119
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:52,760
Speaker 3: since week three and that's that's been pretty consistent throughout

1120
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 3: that sample. No Kelsey, no Kittle, Fant is banged up.

1121
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 3: You know, John new Smith has volume issues. Although like

1122
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 3: he seemingly scores a touchdown every week, I don't think

1123
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 3: that that's the kind of thing that is necessarily projectable.

1124
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 3: So you know, in a landscape where everything is dead,

1125
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 3: Gronk somehow is number two here for me, Ben, anyone

1126
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 3: else at the position that you are relatively high on,

1127
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 3: and then also tell us who you might be low on.

1128
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, I got two more guys that I like. One

1129
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 6: is Austin Hooper, who he was pretty you know, I

1130
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 6: don't know what the right word is, but gross. In

1131
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 6: his first few games with Cleveland he just wasn't seeing targets.

1132
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:38,399
Speaker 5: But he had a three game stretch with a twenty

1133
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 5: six percent target share five catches each week before he

1134
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 5: got hurt.

1135
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 6: And now I think he's going to be back right

1136
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:48,280
Speaker 6: coming out of the by available targets again. Odell Beckham

1137
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 6: very similar to the Landry point. I really like Hooper

1138
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 6: to be better than what we've seen so far going forward.

1139
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:55,919
Speaker 6: And then Eric Ebron's the other one. He's running routes

1140
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 6: on at least eighty two percent of dropbacks for three

1141
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 6: straight weeks, solid production all three games. He hadn't hit

1142
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 6: eighty percent in any of the first five games. Steelers

1143
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 6: are doing some weird stuff here where they've started to

1144
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 6: run a decent chunk of no back sets, which is

1145
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 6: kind of hurt James Connor. I'm a little bit more

1146
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 6: down on Connor. They're using Ray Ray McLoud more they're

1147
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 6: doing four receivers and Eric Ebron, but it's definitely helped

1148
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 6: Ebron as well be out in routes a ton, even

1149
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 6: with all the receivers they have there. So he's a

1150
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 6: guy that I think he can be higher on as

1151
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 6: well that is going to be further down the list

1152
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 6: and is at least someone to have a little exposure

1153
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 6: to in DFS that there's at least some positive trends.

1154
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 6: There's not a lot of tight ends that we have

1155
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 6: positive stuff for the guy. I'm down on Freeman. This

1156
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 6: is the other one where or I'm going away from

1157
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 6: you or against you. It's Gronk. He ran a season

1158
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 6: low forty four percent routes per drop back. Now, obviously

1159
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 6: they got smashed, but they went with a lot more

1160
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 6: four wide receiver sets. Antonio Brown immediately was almost a

1161
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 6: full time player, ran routes on eighty percent drop backs,

1162
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 6: and then they continue to still mix in Scottie Miller

1163
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 6: and use some four receiver sets which cut into Gronk's role.

1164
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 6: Was season low routes percentage for him by a decent chunk,

1165
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 6: and especially since Week three where he really started to

1166
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 6: be up over sixty percent of the routes every week.

1167
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 6: He was at forty four percent this past week. Season

1168
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 6: lowe snaps and there's just so many options now with

1169
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 6: Antonio Brown there and actually having a stable looking like

1170
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 6: he's gonna have a stable role. He played a ton

1171
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 6: of snaps and ran a ton of routes. It's I

1172
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 6: think it's gonna be tough for Gronk to continue that

1173
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:22,919
Speaker 6: target share.

1174
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 3: That's fair, And to be honest, I really don't even care,

1175
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 3: like because there's a case to be made that Gronk

1176
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 3: could be tenth this landscape of two to ten. It's

1177
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 3: almost interchangeable. I think it's fair. Chris, who are you.

1178
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 4: Low on Gared Cook? Jared Cook with Michael Thomas back,

1179
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,720
Speaker 4: with Emmanuel Sanders back, and trey Quan Smith still playing,

1180
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:46,760
Speaker 4: you know, running all most of the routes at wide receiver,

1181
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 4: Jared Cook is it's just going to be hard for

1182
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 4: him to get enough targets to hit if he doesn't

1183
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 4: score a touchdown. Last week, he ran a second to

1184
00:54:57,640 --> 00:54:59,799
Speaker 4: the lowest amount of routes per drop back, just fifty

1185
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 4: four percent. You had Adam Troutman running thirty percent, you

1186
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:06,879
Speaker 4: had Josh Hill twenty seven percent, and you just kind

1187
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 4: of don't know with Sean Payton how that's always going

1188
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 4: to shake out. But Jared Cook really hasn't been a

1189
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,839
Speaker 4: high volume route runner all year. He's kind of been

1190
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 4: stuck in that fifty to seventy percent range all year.

1191
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 4: And now you have Thomas who's just such a target

1192
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 4: hog when he's fully healthy, he can you know, get

1193
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 4: twenty five to thirty percent targets per route run. And

1194
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 4: then you have Kamara the same thing. That just doesn't

1195
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 4: leave enough for Cook, who could be the you know,

1196
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 4: conceivably the fifth option, even depending on you know, trey

1197
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 4: Quan Smith. So low on Jered Cook this.

1198
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 3: Week, Sean, who are you low on?

1199
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 7: I'm low on Gronk as well, And basically every point

1200
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 7: been made I was going to make. But yeah, the

1201
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,239
Speaker 7: routes run per dropback dipping the forty four percent is concerning, but.

1202
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 2: It certainly could be due to the blowout. They seems

1203
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 2: like the.

1204
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,479
Speaker 7: Bucks abandoned their offense pretty much in the second quarter,

1205
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 7: so that could play into that. But you know, with

1206
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 7: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown all active in

1207
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 7: hell right now, it does cut into his target share,

1208
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 7: you know, which makes Gronk a touchdown or a bus

1209
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 7: kind of guy, and he certainly does have the touchdown

1210
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:09,800
Speaker 7: upside every week, so he's just more of a you know,

1211
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 7: high risker type of tight end. So I have him

1212
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 7: all the way down at tight end eleven. But like

1213
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,439
Speaker 7: you said, three minutes wide open, just the slightest change

1214
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 7: that any projection can send a guy up or down

1215
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 7: five slots. So by the end of the week we'll see,

1216
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 7: but just Gronk's target share is definitely gonna take a

1217
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 7: hit going forward.

1218
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,800
Speaker 3: Lesson learned. I need to adjust him down. You're smart,

1219
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:31,360
Speaker 3: I'm not. You're good looking. I'm not the guy that

1220
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 3: I am low on. And by the way, this is

1221
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 3: the guy that I sort of blame this entire week on.

1222
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 3: It's Mark Andrews, because normally in a week like this,

1223
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 3: you at least have like two guys that you can

1224
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 3: cling to, not like one guy, and then just a

1225
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 3: whole bunch of trash like this should be the week

1226
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 3: where Mark Andrews is the clear number two, And the

1227
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 3: fact that he's not really infuriates me, especially because he

1228
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 3: was so good in college, so good as a rookie,

1229
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 3: and so good last year and then he the two

1230
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 3: touchdowns in Week one, It's like, what happened? This guy's

1231
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 3: not getting the yards, he's not getting the touchdowns. The

1232
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 3: Ravens are playing slower, they're not throwing at a high rate.

1233
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 3: There are fewer touchdown opportunities for the entire offense, and

1234
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 3: that trickles down to Andrews. And you know that Petriots

1235
00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 3: defense is not what it has been in previous years,

1236
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 3: but they are still notoriously tough against tight ends, Like

1237
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 3: that's the one area where their defense is still incredibly robust,

1238
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 3: and so on top of everything else that is specific

1239
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: to the Ravens, he has a tough matchup and maybe

1240
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 3: that doesn't really matter all that much because he's still

1241
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 3: going to be one of the most heavily targeted players

1242
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 3: within his offense, but it is in something that certainly

1243
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 3: helps him within this tight end landscape. Andrews I have

1244
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 3: at number six, which is a far cry from the

1245
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 3: number two ranking that he should have if everything we're

1246
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 3: going as it should be. Sean give us the tight

1247
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 3: end prop so.

1248
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 7: I don't think we mentioned this guy, but he's emerged

1249
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 7: the rebel to be my tight end too, So I

1250
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 7: need some help with this projection. And that's Noah Fant.

1251
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:09,120
Speaker 7: You know, albert O is out for the season, so

1252
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 7: no Fant should dominate these tight end snaps going forward.

1253
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 7: But he's been a little banged up himself, so curious

1254
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 7: to hear you guys have him projected at I have

1255
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 7: his overrunner right now at forty nine and a half

1256
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 7: re senior yards.

1257
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 3: I'll take the under. I have it around forty two

1258
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 3: and a half, and a lot of it simply does

1259
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 3: have to do with the fact that he's banged up,

1260
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 3: and so I think we'll see fewer targets. He saw

1261
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 3: fewer targets last week. Is they've kind of shifted more

1262
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 3: towards a wide receiver attack with Judy and then with

1263
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 3: the return of Tim Patrick and the development of kJ Hammler,

1264
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:47,439
Speaker 3: so I think they will focus Although I think really

1265
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 3: might be the most talented of all of those guys,

1266
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 3: I think they're just going to focus more on the

1267
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 3: wide receivers because I do think that he is pretty

1268
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 3: banged up.

1269
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll take the under two for a lot of

1270
00:58:57,480 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 5: the reasons, Freeman said.

1271
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 6: Each of the of Judy hand I learned Patrick last

1272
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 6: week at least nine targets and ninety six are yards, Judy.

1273
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 2: Had a lot more.

1274
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 6: So you have these three receivers that are all really involved,

1275
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 6: whether it's fam being banged up or not. I mean,

1276
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 6: he only had three catches last week in a game

1277
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 6: where the passing volume in the offense was was really spiked.

1278
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 6: I don't expect it to be as spike this week

1279
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 6: at at Las Vegas, although it is, you know, a

1280
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 6: reasonably high total, but it's not going to be like

1281
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:22,920
Speaker 6: the Atlanta game where they were chasing points and scored

1282
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 6: three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. So if he only

1283
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 6: had three catches and three targets in that environment, he's

1284
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 6: not a guy I really want to be on any

1285
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 6: overs right now.

1286
00:59:32,640 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 4: I agree. I have him about three yards lower at

1287
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 4: forty six, and I actually am projecting a little bit

1288
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 4: of a bump in routes run to about seventy eight percent.

1289
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 4: His season average is seventy one percent, and that's because

1290
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 4: you have really no one behind him but Nick Venette

1291
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 4: as of now. So I think the tight ends are

1292
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:50,800
Speaker 4: still going to end up running you know, ninety to

1293
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 4: ninety five percent in the route. So I do expect

1294
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 4: a bump, but have him at four point two catches

1295
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 4: for forty six yards and my five great if I

1296
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 4: lower him, that's you know.

1297
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 2: TJ. Howkinson is my tight end too, which I don't love.

1298
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 7: If Kenny Golladay is coming back, so I don't know,

1299
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 7: I'll probably just end up with Dallas Godder at number two.

1300
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 2: He's my guy. I'm gonna stick with him.

1301
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 7: But yeah, it's it's it's kind of a nightmare of

1302
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 7: projecting tight end this week because it's scary no matter

1303
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:20,000
Speaker 7: who you have ranked number two this week.

1304
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 3: All right, So Ben, give us a little info on

1305
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 3: the newsletter. You said that you normally work on it

1306
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 3: on on Mondays and Tuesdays. Give us some some tasty

1307
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 3: little nuggets.

1308
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm writing it.

1309
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 6: I wrote the Thursday Night Football and Early Games newsletter yesterday.

1310
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 6: The late Sunday Games and Sunday Football and Monday Football

1311
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 6: will go out later today.

1312
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 5: We hit on a lot of the guys.

1313
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 6: I mean that that definitely informs my takes for anytime

1314
01:00:49,280 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 6: I want shows like this. But you know, Richie James

1315
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 6: a guy that I'm still high on. You guys talked

1316
01:00:53,560 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 6: about Jady McKissick. His snapshare out of the biros to

1317
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 6: eighty three percent, even though Gibson snapshare stayed reasonably similar,

1318
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 6: So it was actually McKissick playing a lot more out

1319
01:01:03,800 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 6: of the slot and out wide. It was the most

1320
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 6: snaps he had outside the backfield in a game all season.

1321
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 5: Definitely like his you know PPR potential.

1322
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 6: Not a lot of touchdown equity with him obviously only

1323
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 6: has one touch inside of ten yard line all season,

1324
01:01:17,360 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 6: but certainly a guy that it can keep adding catches.

1325
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 6: We talked about Duke Johnson, We talked about DJ Chark

1326
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 6: with Jake Luton, Jerry Judy, we just talked about you know,

1327
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 6: He's his role has continued to spike, and his weighted

1328
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,680
Speaker 6: opportunity rating as whopper that the Josh Hermsmar talks about

1329
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 6: has been over point seventy five for two weeks in

1330
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 6: a row, which is very strong. So yeah, a lot

1331
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 6: of the things we already hit on today, But yeah,

1332
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 6: I mean there's there's always a lot of little little

1333
01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 6: trends like that to uncover. I talk about him every

1334
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 6: week in the newsletter. You can find it out Bengretch

1335
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 6: dot substack dot com. Going through the signals and the

1336
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 6: noise and the things that you should you pay attention

1337
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 6: to each week.

1338
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 3: All Right, everyone. Be sure to follow Ben on Twitter

1339
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 3: at yards Progress. You can follow Sean, Chris and me

1340
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 3: in the Action Network app at the Underscore. Odds maker

1341
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 3: Chris Raven and Matt f. The Oracle use the app

1342
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 3: to get real time odds and track your bets for free.

1343
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 3: Please subscribe to and rate and review the show, and

1344
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 3: listen and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1345
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 5: We're finished talking