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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just mop that action.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go. We're throwing in so spect.

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Speaker 3: I'm saying it's a.

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Speaker 4: Cash touch time.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible being bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 4: If you want to fall.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 2: I am filling in for Brendan Gladjean. This week, brend

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Speaker 2: New is off getting married congratulations again at a destination

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Speaker 2: wedding at beautiful Aqueduct Race Track in Queens, New York.

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Speaker 2: Everybody here at the Action Network wish is the happy couple.

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Speaker 2: All the best. But today we've got your NFL Best

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Speaker 2: Bets from the one and only Brandon Anderson for NFL

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Speaker 2: Week four. As a reminder, you've all of Brandon's picks

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Speaker 2: in the free award winning Action Network app, including any

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Speaker 2: Futures Awards bets with all of his articles everything Brandon

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Speaker 2: does in the Action Network app. But without further ado,

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Speaker 2: let's get into some Week four best bets now, Brandon

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Speaker 2: your kitchen sink week Last week went pretty darn well,

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Speaker 2: talk to me about it.

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Speaker 4: What's up?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a good week. We'll get in the

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Speaker 1: Kitchen Sink and some of the follow from there. We

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Speaker 1: were fourteen and four and picks in the app last

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Speaker 1: week twelve units up almost eighty eight percent ROI on

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Speaker 1: the week, thankfully because avn't it did not.

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Speaker 3: Go so well the first couple of weeks here.

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Speaker 1: So on the season, now on this podcast we are

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Speaker 1: about five point two units to the good sixteen percent ROI.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have some swings. It takes some long shots.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna have some ups and down. So we'll get

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Speaker 1: to somewhere long shots today, but kitchen sank all is

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Speaker 1: a favorite of mine.

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Speaker 3: In week three, Yeah, and now.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get into some picks here. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: get your first pick and obviously we're gonna be talking

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Speaker 2: about maybe a team that potentially doesn't never win you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So last week on here we did the kitchen We

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Speaker 1: did the own two teams or was nine and I

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Speaker 1: kind of rank them on from one to nine. Who

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Speaker 1: fits the trend best on the Kitchen Sink trends. I

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Speaker 1: know your articles up each week with all the various

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Speaker 1: trends and everything. Top five Kitchen Sink teams by How

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Speaker 1: I rated them, Rams, Ravens, Giants, Colts, Panthers, All five

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Speaker 1: of them covered, all five to one outright on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: It was a big Sunday for underdogs. It's been just

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Speaker 1: a big year for underdogs. Sunday alone, Kitchen sing teams

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Speaker 1: were six and one against the spread and straight up

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Speaker 1: we had double digit wins by six and a half,

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Speaker 1: six and a half and seven and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: So that's a spot I'm kind of looking at here

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Speaker 1: because with all those teams winning, we are now down

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Speaker 1: to only three teams left without a win, and we

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Speaker 1: will be betting two of those teams today. And on

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Speaker 1: the other side of things, only five teams left are undefeated.

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Speaker 1: Chief Spills, no surprises there, Seahawks, Viking Steelers, perhaps a

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Speaker 1: bit more surprising. Have an article up at Action talking

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Speaker 1: about what are the futures look like for those teams?

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Speaker 1: Are you set for the playoffs that you know? Are

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Speaker 1: we fading how to do that week to week? So today,

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Speaker 1: as we're betting for Week four, definitely looking at some

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Speaker 1: of these winless teams.

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Speaker 2: Well. Number one on the list is a winless team.

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Speaker 2: Tell me what you're looking at. It's a divisional matchup.

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Speaker 1: This is your best gat. I'm gonna go to Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: I guess we're going to Houston on this one. Give

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Speaker 1: me the Jaguars plus six and a half in Houston.

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Speaker 1: I think, first and foremost is a great BILO spot

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Speaker 1: for Jacksonville in a division game, and it's a good

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Speaker 1: spot against what I think is like overrated Texans team.

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Speaker 1: This is a team that I think got hyped up

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Speaker 1: all off season. We're all excited. They got the new additions.

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Speaker 1: They bring in mixing, they bring in digs, lots of

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Speaker 1: new defenders. They haven't really lived up to the hype

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Speaker 1: so far. And first of all division underdogs of six

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Speaker 1: and a half for more of the first five weeks

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Speaker 1: eighty eight, fifty eight and two against the spread sixty percent,

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Speaker 1: so just right there alone. Whoever the teams are, we

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Speaker 1: know early in the season to not get too confident

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Speaker 1: in one of these big division favorites. Texans offense by

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Speaker 1: dv away. Now DVOA only means so much three weeks in,

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Speaker 1: but they're twenty sixth in DVOA, their bottom coord of

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Speaker 1: the league in running and passing.

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Speaker 3: CJ. Stroud.

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Speaker 1: I talked about him my quarterback rankings coming to this season.

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Speaker 1: I think we crowned him as this elite quarterback. So

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Speaker 1: far he has not lived up to it. He is

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Speaker 1: twenty eighth in success rate in the NFL and on

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Speaker 1: negative play rate from Patent Analytics negative play meaning sac

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Speaker 1: interception or fumble.

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Speaker 3: CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud is having a negative play thirteen point five percent

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Speaker 1: of his dropbacks. That ranks second to last in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Only Scaler Thompson has a worse rating in that one.

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Speaker 3: It's not a name you want to be associated with.

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Speaker 3: So CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud is where I'm looking on the matchup here. There's

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Speaker 1: a really key matchup. We all watch the Jaguars and

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Speaker 1: Monday night we watched the Bills Monday night, right, the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars were just kind of present. They were watching the

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Speaker 1: Bills put up points on them. New defensive coordinator Ryan

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Speaker 1: Nielsen plays the number one most man coverage in the

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Speaker 1: NFL over fifty percent by far the most. Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: on Monday Night, as we saw, carves up man. He

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Speaker 1: has since twenty twenty on early downs forty two touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: only four interceptions versus man, twenty seven touchdowns, twenty nine

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Speaker 1: receptions against zone oops. Probably should have played some zone

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Speaker 1: against Josh Allen. They didn't. This is what Ryan Nielsen does.

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Speaker 1: He plays man all right? Well, now, CJ Stroud, how's he?

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Speaker 4: You do?

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Speaker 3: Ce Stroud is the opposite CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud last year as a rookie against zone number one

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Speaker 1: in QBR eighty ninth percentile PFF grade against man. What

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Speaker 1: he's facing here twenty seventh in QBR seventeenth percentile PFF grade.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's a matchup look that you like here.

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Speaker 1: And then just looking at blind trends on teams in

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Speaker 1: a spot like this, road teams after feeling to cover

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Speaker 1: by twenty four more sixty two percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: That's a Jacksonville spot. Winless teams against a not undefeated

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Speaker 1: winning team from week four on sixty two ats this

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Speaker 1: trend after trend end we've done on this podcast for

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Speaker 1: a few weeks. These six and six and a half

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Speaker 1: point road underdogs another spot here there. So I am

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Speaker 1: taking Jacksonville plus six.

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Speaker 3: And a half.

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Speaker 1: But as I want to do, I got a little

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Speaker 1: escalator for us, you know how we get in these

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Speaker 1: upsets for the season, Trevor Lawrence. As you have pointed

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Speaker 1: out repeatedly in your article, Davin has not won a

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Speaker 1: game since Thanksgiving. He is on an eight game losing streak. However,

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Speaker 1: six of the last nine Jaguars wins last season were

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Speaker 1: by double digits, and if you look in his career,

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Speaker 1: eleven out of twenty Lawrence wins in.

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Speaker 3: His career by double digits.

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Speaker 1: Average margin victory is almost twelve points a game, and

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Speaker 1: six of nine Texans losses since the Star last season

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Speaker 1: by double digits. Those six losses by an average of

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Speaker 1: nineteen points a game. So we're doing it. We gotta

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Speaker 1: do it. Sprinkle the Jaguars to win by ten minus

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Speaker 1: nine and a half alternate line plus eight thirty. Nobody

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Speaker 1: sees it coming. We're seeing it coming. We're going Jaguars

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half. But play for that ten

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Speaker 1: point win as well.

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Speaker 2: God, I love it. And the one thing I will

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Speaker 2: say about the number before we move on to your

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Speaker 2: next pick, Brandon, look ahead was three and a half.

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Speaker 2: You're getting six and a half and nothing really changed.

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Speaker 2: So you're getting some free points in a divisional matchup. No,

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Speaker 2: I can't hate it all right, let's move on to

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Speaker 2: the next pick. This one's an awesome game. It's an

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Speaker 2: awesome game because you've got just a guy going back

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Speaker 2: to a place that he can he can just oh,

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Speaker 2: he could just take it all over. So it is

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Speaker 2: Bengals Panthers. What do you like here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the Andy Dollon revenge game. Right.

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Speaker 1: So we're all excited about seeing this week. And I

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Speaker 1: think you just you talked a little bit ago about

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Speaker 1: the free points on the line. I think we're getting

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Speaker 1: some free points on this line too. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to take the Bengals on the road the oh and

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Speaker 1: three Bengals minus the four.

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Speaker 3: I think this line is a.

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Speaker 1: Ridiculous overreaction to last week's results. We saw the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: That wasn't a kitchen sink game. That was like a

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Speaker 1: franchise kitchen sink game. That was we're on the brink

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Speaker 1: against the woebegone Raiders. We gotta solve it, and boy,

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Speaker 1: they did give them credit. We talked about on the

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Speaker 1: Tuesday roundtable. I think that was a little bit more

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Speaker 1: about the Raiders. Personally, I think the Raiders are in

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Speaker 1: big trouble the Bengals. We watched Monday night dropped to

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Speaker 1: zero to three. They lose to Washington. They can't stop

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Speaker 1: a nose. Please, everyone leaves them for dead. All right, Well,

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Speaker 1: this game was minus seven and a half on Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: so we're really moving this a field goal now because

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Speaker 1: we saw Andy Dalton get in the throwback machine. If

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Speaker 1: you zoom out, look at this year compared to last year. Again,

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Speaker 1: DVA only so much this time of year, but it's

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Speaker 1: gonna crazy. Last year for the season, Panthers DVA and

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Speaker 1: offense thirty first, twenty fifth on defense so far this

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Speaker 1: year thirty first on offense, twenty first on defense, same

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Speaker 1: old Panthers. Bengals last year eleventh on offense, twenty third

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Speaker 1: by defense.

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Speaker 3: Guess what.

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Speaker 1: The defense still isn't very good, twenty fourth. The offense

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Speaker 1: is fifth. They're owing three but a top five offense

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Speaker 1: so far. And if you think of what you saw

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Speaker 1: on Monday night, there's plenty of Bengals scoring points. Also,

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Speaker 1: they the offense did their job. They seem to make

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Speaker 1: some defensive stops. So in this matchup Bengals often, I

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Speaker 1: think he's going to score. The Panthers defense is not good.

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Speaker 1: No Derek Brown, that alone, I think is a enough mismatch,

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Speaker 1: but there's a chance the Andy Dalton thing was kind

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Speaker 1: of like a one time thing.

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Speaker 3: There's no Adam Thielen.

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Speaker 1: He's out now, and I think it's a spot for

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Speaker 1: lou Henrumo to get right maybe against Andy Dalton a

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Speaker 1: little bit.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it goes that way.

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Speaker 1: Even if not, I think the Bengals scoring enough to

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Speaker 1: get over the number here. Joe Burrow fourteen seven to

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Speaker 1: one ats after a loss, including seventy nine percent on

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Speaker 1: the road there, so we like the spot for him.

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Speaker 1: I know he's owing three, but he did cover in

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Speaker 1: that spot in Kansas City and probably should have got

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Speaker 1: the win there. So give me the Bengals minus four.

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Speaker 1: Just an overreaction here.

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Speaker 2: All right, for the second straight game. You're getting the

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Speaker 2: best of the number, something we like to see for

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Speaker 2: this third pick. Not all it kind of brought my

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Speaker 2: interest a little bit because you don't all the time

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Speaker 2: pick anytime touchdown bet. But we're gonna look in the

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Speaker 2: afternoon slate here Arizona, Washington. What are you looking for?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna play their rookie.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Marvin Harrison Junior to scoring anytime

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Speaker 1: touchdown plus one twenty five, and I like what you

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Speaker 1: said because that's sort of the path that got me here.

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Speaker 1: You're right, I don't play touchdowns too often. Usually I

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Speaker 1: play them if I had to rule out my other

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Speaker 1: versions of the game. So where I started here. As

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Speaker 1: I looked long and hard at the over, I almost

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Speaker 1: took this on the hot read. I almost took the

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Speaker 1: over on the look ahead. It's fifty and a half.

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Speaker 1: Fifty one is a key number. We're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: lot of points here. Like the Commander's defense is the

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Speaker 1: worst in the league by DVA. Cardinals defense was my

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Speaker 1: worst team defensively by my rankings coming into the season.

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Speaker 1: Both offenses our top ten so far. Right now, Jane

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Speaker 1: Daniels is cooking. He's the Rookie of the Year favorite.

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Speaker 1: Washington has scored every drive two straight games. Seems pretty good.

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Speaker 1: I think we get a lot of points here. Fifty

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Speaker 1: is a lot. It's really hard to go over on fifty.

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Speaker 1: It's just hard to get there. I looked at it.

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Speaker 1: But sometimes there's other ways you can play an over

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Speaker 1: and guess what if we're gonna get to fifty points,

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Speaker 1: some dudes are gonna find the end zone. And I

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Speaker 1: think Marvin Harrison is some dudes. This was what we

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Speaker 1: did Monday night. I looked at that game Washington Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: I looked at an over would have been a fine.

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Speaker 1: We went way over them are on Monday. But I

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Speaker 1: like Jamar Chase, thought he was a good angle. And

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Speaker 1: we've been playing stud receivers against Washington. Here are the

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Speaker 1: numbers for the season. Jamar Chase six catches, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighteen yards, two scores, got the job done. Malik

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Speaker 1: Neighbors the game before ten for one hundred and twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: He found the end zone against Tampa. Mike Evans sixty

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Speaker 1: one and two scores, Chris Godwin eighty three in a score.

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Speaker 1: Those four dudes, like the four great receivers so far

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Speaker 1: against Washington, are averaging seven and a half catches, one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards and one and a half touchdowns a game.

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Speaker 1: So Marvin Harrison Junior, remember week one long ago?

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Speaker 3: Oh, No, one catch four yards, He's a buss. He

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Speaker 3: can't even run down the field.

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Speaker 1: Turns out since then, nine catches, one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 1: four yards, three touchdowns, turns out he's okay. He's got

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Speaker 1: three of Arizona's five receiving touchdowns. This is a thing

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Speaker 1: that he's been good at at college as well. He

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Speaker 1: was top five back to back years in the nation

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Speaker 1: and receiving touchdowns. He actually had at least one score

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Speaker 1: ten of his last eleven games in school, and now

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Speaker 1: here he is two of his last three in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So I like the touchdown plus one twenty five. It's

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Speaker 1: kind of my way of playing over here, but without

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Speaker 1: having to take on the leverage of the over And

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Speaker 1: he did have two touchdowns two weeks ago. We saw

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Speaker 1: that in the first quarter. He had two touchdowns four

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Speaker 1: times his last year in school. We already saw Chase

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Speaker 1: score twice on Washington. We saw Evans score twice on Washington.

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Speaker 1: Gotta do it plus nine to fifty. Sprinkle a little

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Speaker 1: bit on the two touchdowns for Harrison, but most of

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Speaker 1: the bet here on just the anytime touchdown one time. Finally,

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Speaker 1: end zone, mister Harrison plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Well, if Washington doesn't punt again in this game, you

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Speaker 2: should get enough possessions for it to work. The other

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Speaker 2: one here is the totals up five points from the

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Speaker 2: look ahead, So you're getting a good number on like

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Speaker 2: you said, a high scoring game was forty five and

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Speaker 2: a half, now fifty and a half, So I like it.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's go to your last pick here in

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Speaker 2: the first section. Now, you were buying a wide receiver

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Speaker 2: in your previous pick. In this one, you're looking at

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Speaker 2: a game that's now down three points on the total,

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Speaker 2: and you're looking to fade a wide receiver. Talk to

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Speaker 2: me about it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take an under here on Garrett Wilson,

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Speaker 1: a guy who I like quite a bit, a guy

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Speaker 1: who have a bet on just a small play for

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Speaker 1: offensive player of the year. It's not looking great so

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Speaker 1: far because the Jets are having a hard time offensively.

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Speaker 1: So let me ruind a little bit. Jets Broncos totals

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Speaker 1: below forty. I think we're looking at likely an ugly game.

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Speaker 1: Both teams tend to be run heavy. I wish the

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Speaker 1: Jets would figure out how to let their guy here

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Speaker 1: and Rodgers throw the ball, but they just love to

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Speaker 1: hand the ball off on first and second down.

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Speaker 3: I think this is one of those games.

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Speaker 1: Where it's like, uh oh, I thought we were just

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Speaker 1: ending the fourth quarter here on red zone, but this

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Speaker 1: game's already wrapping up. Jets Broncos is done twenty to seventeen, right,

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Speaker 1: like something like that. So I do like the Jets

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Speaker 1: here and now if I don't need the points. So

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Speaker 1: I was like, okay, what's the script here? Well, the

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Speaker 1: Jets offensively, so far as we've watched them, they're playing

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Speaker 1: all right. I think Aaron Rodgers looks pretty good personally.

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Speaker 1: The problem that they have is Mike Williams has not

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Speaker 1: been healthy and they just don't have a lot of weapons.

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Speaker 1: They got Garrett Wilson, and then we got Allen Lazard

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Speaker 1: or we got like whatever, one of Aaron Rodgers' friends.

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Speaker 1: He has around to throw the ball to well. Against

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Speaker 1: Denver in particular, I think that could be a problem.

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Speaker 1: Denver's got Patrick's retain, who is one of the best

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Speaker 1: cornerbacks in the league and one of the few that

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Speaker 1: still shadows opponents. So so far he's based off against

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Speaker 1: these three guys, and here's the results. DK metcalf with

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Speaker 1: certain on him three catches twenty nine yards, only four targets.

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Speaker 1: Even George Pickens' next game two catches twenty nine yards,

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Speaker 1: four targets, Mike Evans two catches seventeen yards on three targets.

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Speaker 1: They're not even getting targeted. They're getting like a one

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Speaker 1: target per quarter on average. Those three guys are two

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Speaker 1: point three catches for twenty five yards. So I am

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Speaker 1: taking Garrett Wilson on the under. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: I said this at the top. That's my fault. Garrett

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Speaker 1: Wilson under fifty six and a half receiving yards and

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Speaker 1: it seems like a low number. I just think it's

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Speaker 1: not quite low enough. If you look at Wilson so far,

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Speaker 1: he does have two games at fifty seven and sixty.

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Speaker 1: He has a thirty three. We're averaging fifty yards a game.

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Speaker 1: He's getting some of the target looks, but he's also

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Speaker 1: not getting big catches. He only has four double digit

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Speaker 1: yard catches for the season, only one more than sixteen.

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Speaker 1: That was a twenty six yarder. So I think I

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00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:47,840
Speaker 1: need volume to hit an over here. You probably need

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Speaker 1: maybe six seven eight catches. He's not really been getting that,

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Speaker 1: and Certain has not been allowing that either. So if

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Speaker 1: I'm denver, I think that I can keep this thing close.

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Speaker 1: I can stick Certain on game here Wilson, have him

343
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Speaker 1: follow around the field for's the justin be mean with

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Speaker 1: Alan Lazard and Conklin and whatever. Other dudes they've found

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Speaker 1: out there.

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Speaker 3: I think they will.

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Speaker 1: I like the Jets and Teezer spot this week, but

348
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Speaker 1: I like your Wilson to go under the fifty six

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yrons.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, total below forty in the middle of some tough matchups.

351
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Speaker 2: Just went through New England. Now you've got Denver, then

352
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Speaker 2: you can have Minnesota and the Blitz next week. So

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Speaker 2: completely understood. Like the pick.

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Speaker 5: If you've ever thought about becoming an Action Pro subscriber,

355
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00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,560
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361
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362
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 5: Kerner's NFL anytime touchdown and first touchdown projections are part

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Speaker 5: or follow the link in this episode's description.

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00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 2: Let's talk some long shots now, so you're gonna give

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Speaker 2: me three picks. We'll go one by one here. Please

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Speaker 2: have a little bit of juice to them, a little

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Speaker 2: bit of you know, a skin in the game. So

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Speaker 2: first one here, you're gonna be talking about Sunday night football.

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Speaker 2: Talk to me what you like in this Ravens Bills game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love this game. So here, let me give

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Speaker 1: you the peck and I'll lay out the case for us.

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Speaker 1: This is the same game parlay, and you're gonna have

378
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Speaker 1: to get creative're gonna have to look on like the

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Speaker 1: alternate lines at your boock. We're gonna do a first half,

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Speaker 1: second half same game parlay. So I want the Ravens

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Speaker 1: in the first half and taking an alternate line Ravens

382
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, so Baltimore gets up. But

383
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Speaker 1: then I want the Bills minus the same three and

384
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,399
Speaker 1: a half in the second and half. I'm gonna put

385
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Speaker 1: those two together. It's a plus four to twenty five.

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Speaker 1: So here's the case. This game is awesome. This game

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Speaker 1: is gonna be so much fun. Like the whole waiting

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Speaker 1: all day for Sunday night is actually this game. This

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Speaker 1: is the one that we're doing waiting all day for.

390
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: These are number one and number two on offensive. Dvoa

391
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 1: Bill's our first Raven second. They're both top ten on defense.

392
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Speaker 1: We actually haven't really gotten to see much Lamar against

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Speaker 1: Josh at their current levels. We only really have one

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Speaker 1: meeting with them. Playing like MVP type guys. I will

395
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: say I looked a lot at rushing numbers here. I

396
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Speaker 1: like rushing overs for both quarterbacks in a big game

397
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Speaker 1: that their coaches tend to like take the gloves off

398
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 1: and just go for the kill. So I like Lamar

399
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 1: over nine half attempts. I like the script for the game,

400
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 1: narrative wise, and That's where I'm looking at this. I

401
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 1: don't want to predict a winner here. I'm not really

402
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 1: sure who wins this game, to be honest, but here's

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Speaker 1: what I do know, and I know you know this happened.

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00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson in the first half sixty five percent against

405
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,719
Speaker 1: the spread for his career. It's been a little more

406
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 1: up and down more recently, but two out of three

407
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: for a career pretty good Allen in the second half,

408
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Speaker 1: exact same thing. Sixty five percent ats for him in

409
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 1: his career. So what do we see with Baltimore every

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Speaker 1: week when you watch they come out, they look good,

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Speaker 1: they build a lead, and then they hold on for

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Speaker 1: dear life and try to get over the line and

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Speaker 1: sometimes don't like the Raiders at the end of the game.

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Speaker 3: So that's the narrative we're building.

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Speaker 1: The narrative play is a Ravens lead early, minus three

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Speaker 1: and a half in the first half, so I gotta

417
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Speaker 1: be up by four, Maybe get a touchdown, get Justin

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00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 1: Tucker out of here, no field goals anymore, Just give

419
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Speaker 1: in the end zone, get Dereck Henry in there or something.

420
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Speaker 1: And then here's where I think this matters for a

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Speaker 1: lot of teams. If you get up a bunch, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna stay up a bunch. And now I don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: want the other team in the second half. I think

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Speaker 1: actually books are tweeting this as negative correlation. I think

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Speaker 1: for this game is positive correlation. If the Ravens get up,

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Speaker 1: I want the Bills. I think the Bills are going

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Speaker 1: to keep this game close. In fact, I think the

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00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 1: Bills are a great teaser leg. This week, they're plus

429
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: two and a half. Tease that to eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Bill have not lost by more than one score

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Speaker 1: in forty four regular season games. The last time they

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Speaker 1: did it and involved Frank Reich and Carson Wentz on

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Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts. That's how long ago. So I knowed

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Speaker 1: the Bills keep it close, Ravens take a lead, as

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Speaker 1: they do. The Bills push back the second half as

436
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 1: they do. I don't really care what happens after that.

437
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: Just keep it close and do your thing back then

438
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 1: narrative Ravens first half, Bill second half both minus three

439
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 1: and a half, plus four to twenty five on the

440
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: same game parlay.

441
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, this is King first half versus

442
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,719
Speaker 2: King second half. This is a complete narrative play, all

443
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: narrative street, everything stays straight. You'll when you're back. Congratulations.

444
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 2: All right, next one divisional matchup this week. Now you've

445
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 2: got King of the underdogs. Who's a favorite. So you've

446
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,119
Speaker 2: got the Packers at home favorites. What do you like

447
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 2: in that one?

448
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 4: So?

449
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 1: Look, I'm a Vikings fan, and I struggle picking Vikings games,

450
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 1: but I started this one all week. The line just

451
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 1: feels off to me. I just think that the Packers

452
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 1: are the better team. We all thought so a month ago,

453
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: and now it's minus two and a half, basically calling

454
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,399
Speaker 1: this a coin flip game factory in home field. So

455
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 1: I couldn't get there in the minus two and a half.

456
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: It's three at some books now. I definitely don't want

457
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 1: the key number. So if I'm there and I like

458
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 1: a team, I look for an alternate angle. So here's

459
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: the angle. I'm gonna take the Packers, but I'm gonna

460
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: betray my own team. I'm taking the Packers minus nine

461
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 1: and a half. Packers to win by double digits. It's

462
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: plus three hundred. So here's the case. They are Green

463
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 1: Bay number three in offensive DVOA, despite two of three

464
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 1: games with Malik Willis, who we did not think was

465
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 1: a quarterback two weeks ago. One game played an ice

466
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: rink in Brazil. There's still that good. Their top seven

467
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 1: rushing and passing, and while that happened, Jeff Hafley, the

468
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: new defensive coordinator, quietly coming around there.

469
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 3: They are top twelve defensively as well.

470
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: Just had a really nice game there for the Vikings,

471
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: obviously number one defense, they've been awesome so far, but

472
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: they've been awesome against Daniel Jones and then back to

473
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 1: back Shanahan offensives, which are more creative, aggressive play callers

474
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: like McDonald, like brand Flores. Those of the guys having successes,

475
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: especially two weeks in a row, get a lot of

476
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: practice in against that style of offense. Jordan Love, I

477
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: think he's back for this game. Obviously, I do not

478
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 1: want this pick if Love ends up not playing. But

479
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: Jordan Love last season rank number two against the Blitz

480
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 1: on PFF grades. He had twelve touchdowns only one reception.

481
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: Jordan Love I'm rating as an elite quarterback, and he

482
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: also is playing behind what has been the number two

483
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: pass block in the NFL so far from PFF.

484
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 3: So if you bring all the pressure and.

485
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: You don't get there or you get close, but you

486
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: have an elite quarterback that can pick you apart, not

487
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 1: a system that's supposed to just take what's there suddenly

488
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,679
Speaker 1: that can go very poorly, and it can go the

489
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: other way in a hurry. I think the Packers the

490
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: last two weeks had the biggest two weeks of the season.

491
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: We said that Sunday night. The Vikings too have not

492
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: played from behind all season. That's good, right, that's great.

493
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 3: We want you.

494
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 1: If you don't play from a hand all season, you're

495
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 1: gonna win a lot of games. It turns out last

496
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: week we saw with the Saints what happened when you're

497
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: a front runner but aren't front running anymore. Did not

498
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: go well. They were off script. It didn't go well

499
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 1: for Derek Carr. We haven't seen yet what happens when

500
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: Minnesota plays a close game. What happens when Sam Darnold

501
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 1: is behind and has to throw from me. He's not

502
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: been good outdoors in his career. What happens to Brian

503
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 1: Flores when he can't just blitz pass rushers all game

504
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: because you're playing an elite quarterback they can handle it,

505
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: or because you're behind right now and they man want

506
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 1: to run the ball, or that sort of thing. So

507
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota the belief in this team because they

508
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: haven't trailed yet, like we need. We haven't seen the

509
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: real version of the vikings. We need to see them

510
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: any game like this. And then here's where I get

511
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,239
Speaker 1: to the aut line. And I got a couple other

512
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: kind of various ways to play Green Bay here. So

513
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 1: these teams have split the last four years. Obviously, you

514
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: play in the division twice a year. It's split the

515
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: series all four years, but five games in a row

516
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 1: are double digit games between these teams. It's a close series,

517
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 1: but the games haven't been close. Usually one team gets

518
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: ahead and wins relatively easily. So if I'm gonna play,

519
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 1: make it worthwhile, Packers double digits plus three hundred. If

520
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: you like a side here and you want to do

521
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: the futures route, Packers are plus three forty in the division.

522
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: They win this game with those Malik Willis wins. There's

523
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: something looking pretty good in the division. Obviously the Lions

524
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 1: are in play there as well. But then one other

525
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: future I played this in the app. This week's hopefully

526
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: you tailed. I think Jordan Love.

527
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 3: MVP is still is still available.

528
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,959
Speaker 1: I think Malik Willis with the assist, got a couple wins.

529
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 1: QB wins our thing. You gotta win the game. You

530
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: got the Packers some wins. Jordan Love is sixty to

531
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 1: one to an MVP.

532
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 3: I think, who's.

533
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: Gonna remember in that September he didn't play games. We're

534
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: gonna remember the moments that are coming up. Still, I

535
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: think Love still has a shot in MVP race. That

536
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: looks like Alan and not a lot of other guys

537
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: so far. So I'm gonna sprinkle some of those futures.

538
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sprinkle Packers, Mainstein and a half plus three

539
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 1: hundred just kind of give me a few different ways

540
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: to see what happens here. If the Packers really look

541
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: as good as they are, I think the Packers are

542
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: a quiet Super Bowl contender right now.

543
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 4: Yeah.

544
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 2: If Love doesn't miss any more games and the Packers

545
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: end the season on a really hot streak and do

546
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: really well, we'll have no memory of the fact that

547
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 2: Malik Willis was in these two starts. We'll just give

548
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 2: them to Love and have you know, the Packers are

549
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 2: the great record. All right. We've got one more long

550
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 2: shot for you. This is longer than the other one.

551
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 2: We give you a four to one. We give you

552
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 2: a three to one. Then you told you sixty to one.

553
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: Now we got something a little bit longer than that

554
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 2: what he got.

555
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, just real quick, Darius Robinson for Defensive Rookie of

556
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: the Year. It's eighty to one out there one book.

557
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 1: Hopefully you followed in the app. We got this at

558
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 1: one fifty to one. There, make sure that you get

559
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: the pro subscription, get those notifications on the case. Is

560
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 1: he's a first round pass rusher that fits the bill.

561
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: This is a wide open race. No rookie has more

562
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: than one sacker interception except a twenty six year old

563
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: rookie from the Birmingham Stallions.

564
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 3: In the UFL.

565
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: So I can't tell you much about Darius Robinson except

566
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: the Cardinals badly need dudes to pass rus bj Olargi,

567
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: o Jalari is out, Justin Jones is out.

568
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 3: They need guys.

569
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: Why is Robinson's out solo? He hasn't played yet. He's

570
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: eligibly come off of ir next week. I think these

571
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: odds shift that way. Just take a sprinkle. See about

572
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: a guy that can fit the profile here long term?

573
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think what Brandon's telling you is just take

574
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: a few stabs right now. So anyone in that like

575
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 2: high zone, someone's gonna get a bunch of saxon and

576
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: probably take a lead. So, uh, throw a few stabs

577
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 2: out there before the weekend. All right, look aheadline, we're

578
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: looking to week five, But talk to me about what

579
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: your look ahead was for week four and what we

580
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 2: can be betting right now.

581
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 3: Looking ahead, let's look Ahead, Just give it a shot.

582
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 2: How about next week?

583
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 3: I got my mindset, got my mindset. Yeah.

584
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: So week four we did the under. We did another

585
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin the road under Steelers Colts. So hopefully we

586
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: get that under this week and other one of those

587
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: ugliest Steelers games.

588
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 3: For next week. I have to do it to my Vikings.

589
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick against my Vikings twice on the same podcast,

590
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 1: and I'm going with the Jets money line. It so

591
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: our first international game in London Sunday morning, Aaron Rodgers

592
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: against the Vikings. Boy, don't I know watching that one

593
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: Jets money line minus one oh four. So again, look

594
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: Ahead is about line movement. That's the play here. The

595
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: Jets are big favorites home against the Broncos bo Nicks.

596
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: On the road, you like the Jets to take care

597
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 1: of business. They're the Vikings are road underdogs. They haven't

598
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: trailed yet. What's it look like when they're not front runners?

599
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: What if they lose that Packers game. I think this

600
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: line effectively prices a coin flip right now. The Jets

601
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 1: are favorite or underdogs depending on the book you look

602
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: at by like a point either way.

603
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 3: I think they end up favorites.

604
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: I think that's the direction this line is going to

605
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: move based on the games we're going to see this weekend.

606
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 1: So Aaron Rodgers fourteen and seven straight up against the

607
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: Vikings as a favorite in his career International games. Throw

608
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: the Jaguars out their home in London, right they They're

609
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: their own thing outside of those favorites. Just win twenty

610
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 1: four to nine against the spread favorites and international games

611
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: not counting the Jaguars, including they've won ten of their

612
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: last eleven. Aaron Rodgers looks pretty good. You shook off

613
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: the ross and the Jets quietly are kind of shaping

614
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: their defense stop compared to what looked awful the first week.

615
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: Rineso's offense I think is the clear weeklink of the

616
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 1: four units in this game. And so I'm just gonna

617
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: take the money line. I think we're basically getting a

618
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: coin flip here that'll end up not price to the

619
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: coin flip by the time we get there. So get

620
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: ahead of where I think the line moves. Jets minus

621
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: one oh four on the money line. Let's play international

622
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: ball Sunday morning.

623
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: Well after the Garrett Wilson struggles against the Broncos this

624
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: week and they'll rebound and look great against the Vikings.

625
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 2: Right all right, Brandon, thank you, that's going to do it.

626
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 2: Here for the Action Network podcast for our Week four

627
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: best Bets in the NFL episode. Don't forget to download

628
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: the free, award winning Action Network app to see more

629
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 2: from Brandon Anderson and all of our Action Network contributors.

630
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: Plus you can track your own picks. Check out the

631
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 2: Action Network Discord server to chop it up with experts

632
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: and fellow gamblers during these games. There's a link in

633
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: the description of this podcast. Be sure to check out

634
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: our Week four betting preview episode was Stucky and raybund Out.

635
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,479
Speaker 2: Now we will be back next week with more best bets.

636
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening, and good luck with all your

637
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 2: bets this weekend.

638
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: Enjoy.

639
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

640
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

641
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler