WEBVTT - With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:28.724 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.764 --> 0:00:31.164 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and. 0:00:31.124 --> 0:00:33.684 I'm Nate Silver. Stay in the show. Look if it 0:00:33.724 --> 0:00:36.604 looks like I'm taping this in candle lights because all 0:00:36.644 --> 0:00:39.964 the power is out in New York City and around 0:00:39.964 --> 0:00:42.244 the world because of the government shutdown. No, there has 0:00:42.284 --> 0:00:44.164 been a government shut down for more than a week 0:00:44.204 --> 0:00:46.684 now as you're hearing this less than new beecause we're 0:00:46.724 --> 0:00:48.964 taping this. We're going to talk about how it's evolved, 0:00:49.004 --> 0:00:53.324 what the polling says so far, and you know, do 0:00:53.404 --> 0:00:56.844 a check in on which side if either is applying 0:00:56.844 --> 0:00:57.644 the right strategy. 0:00:58.204 --> 0:01:01.604 And after that, we are going to talk about one 0:01:01.684 --> 0:01:05.844 of our pet favorite subjects here at Risky Business, which 0:01:05.884 --> 0:01:10.684 is AI and the release of a new AI video 0:01:10.764 --> 0:01:13.244 generation app from open Ai called. 0:01:13.284 --> 0:01:15.844 Sora Sora Too, Sora Too. 0:01:15.724 --> 0:01:17.884 Sorry, I can I can never get it. N Yes, 0:01:18.724 --> 0:01:21.924 the man the names of open Ai products. But the 0:01:21.964 --> 0:01:27.324 segment will be about broader societal concerns that have to 0:01:27.364 --> 0:01:29.964 go beyond whether it's called Sora or Sora Too. 0:01:30.524 --> 0:01:32.684 How dystopian are We're going to answer that question for 0:01:32.684 --> 0:01:34.804 you on a scale of zero to ten, how far 0:01:34.844 --> 0:01:40.844 are down the lines. Are we to a dystopia? 0:01:42.604 --> 0:01:45.964 But before we dive into AI, let's talk a little 0:01:45.964 --> 0:01:49.604 bit about the government shutdown. So we are recording this 0:01:49.764 --> 0:01:54.044 on Monday, October sixth, you'll be hearing it on Wednesday 0:01:54.084 --> 0:01:57.964 the eighth. On the Sex We're still in a government shutdown. 0:01:58.004 --> 0:02:01.844 And Nate, we know you're an advisor to Polymarket. It 0:02:01.924 --> 0:02:03.924 seems to me that if you look at the odds, 0:02:03.924 --> 0:02:06.684 we will probably still be in a shutdown by the 0:02:06.684 --> 0:02:09.524 time listeners hear this episode on Wednesday. 0:02:09.684 --> 0:02:13.804 Polymarket the prediction, Sorry, poly Market, the prediction market for everyone. 0:02:15.164 --> 0:02:20.764 It's poly October anyway. Yeah, according to Polymarket, there's only 0:02:20.844 --> 0:02:23.484 about a three percent chance that will look foolish by 0:02:23.564 --> 0:02:26.324 having released this episode when the sub shutdowns already resolved. 0:02:26.724 --> 0:02:28.764 In about a seventy five percent chance that it will 0:02:28.764 --> 0:02:31.204 be resolved within a week and a half or later. 0:02:31.804 --> 0:02:35.724 Twenty five percent chance for the longest shutdown in American history. 0:02:36.164 --> 0:02:39.604 So, Nate, I am curious, what is the longest the 0:02:39.644 --> 0:02:41.084 government has ever shut down for? 0:02:41.964 --> 0:02:45.604 It was thirty five days in eighteen twenty nineteen. 0:02:45.884 --> 0:02:48.564 And how did that? How did that play out? Was 0:02:48.604 --> 0:02:54.324 the country experiencing any any really negative consequences. Could we 0:02:54.444 --> 0:02:57.444 feel the shutdown as a nation, because I don't actually 0:02:57.484 --> 0:03:00.044 remember what it felt like, to be perfectly honest. 0:03:00.404 --> 0:03:02.724 Have you noticed any effects of the shutdown so far? 0:03:03.004 --> 0:03:06.284 No, I have not gone. But if I were a 0:03:06.284 --> 0:03:09.244 federal employee, I might write because we know that that if. 0:03:09.204 --> 0:03:12.444 You're a federal employee, then you may get furloughed, you 0:03:12.484 --> 0:03:14.964 may stop getting a paycheck, and if you're not furloaed, 0:03:15.204 --> 0:03:18.804 social Security benefits may be delayed. Right. Staffing at some 0:03:18.884 --> 0:03:23.004 agencies like the National Park Service may be limited mildly 0:03:23.204 --> 0:03:27.484 to severely. You know all you know, you have financial 0:03:27.484 --> 0:03:29.764 sector things about how we're making our treasury payments and 0:03:29.804 --> 0:03:32.284 things like that. Anyway, there's a lot of stuff. It's 0:03:32.364 --> 0:03:36.844 kind of the grab bag. The president has both the 0:03:36.964 --> 0:03:41.484 jury and de facto power to play around with things 0:03:41.964 --> 0:03:44.004 a little bit, right. I Mean, there's some question about 0:03:44.004 --> 0:03:47.164 whether Trump wants to make Democrats feel the pain or 0:03:47.204 --> 0:03:50.204 if rather that would turn around on him. But yeah, 0:03:50.324 --> 0:03:53.524 I mean, let's talk about the reasons why nobody expecting 0:03:53.524 --> 0:03:54.844 a quick resolution. 0:03:54.724 --> 0:03:57.244 Right, Yeah, So there, I mean, there are two main 0:03:57.284 --> 0:04:00.124 things the way that I understand it. Thing number one 0:04:00.164 --> 0:04:04.204 healthcare spending, right and or it cuts to healthcare, and 0:04:04.404 --> 0:04:07.524 the Democrats are standing for them on that this is 0:04:07.564 --> 0:04:11.164 a place where we might get some common ground with Republicans, 0:04:11.204 --> 0:04:14.884 because obviously, if your healthcare premiums are about to get 0:04:14.924 --> 0:04:17.964 twice as expensive, if you're going to lose healthcare coverage, 0:04:17.964 --> 0:04:20.404 et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, you care whether you're 0:04:20.524 --> 0:04:23.884 a Republican or a Democrat. So common ground there potentially. 0:04:24.604 --> 0:04:28.124 And number two, one of the things that the Democrats 0:04:28.204 --> 0:04:31.124 seem to be insisting on is some sort of a 0:04:31.204 --> 0:04:38.364 curb on Donald Trump's ability to limit the appropriations stop 0:04:38.404 --> 0:04:44.324 appropriations that Congress has already appropriated. Sorry, I'm saying appropriations 0:04:44.364 --> 0:04:47.404 way too often that I don't know what other My 0:04:47.564 --> 0:04:50.644 vocabulary in this particular case is limited. So they're trying 0:04:50.684 --> 0:04:54.804 to curb executive power somewhat so that they know that, Okay, 0:04:54.844 --> 0:04:57.124 if we allocate these funds, these funds are actually going 0:04:57.164 --> 0:05:00.524 to be used. We want you know that to be 0:05:00.604 --> 0:05:03.364 the case. We want to reclaim congressional power of the purse. 0:05:03.764 --> 0:05:06.204 Did I kind of summarize it the way that you 0:05:06.244 --> 0:05:08.004 would have Nate or Am I getting it a little 0:05:08.004 --> 0:05:08.404 bit wrong? 0:05:08.524 --> 0:05:12.604 I think you summarize Chuck Schumer spill that, Yeah, look, 0:05:13.164 --> 0:05:17.484 what Democrats with their heart is really into is taking 0:05:17.524 --> 0:05:22.764 a stand against the encroachment of all the authority of Congress, 0:05:22.884 --> 0:05:27.804 really against authoritarianism. Put that in quotes if you want, right. 0:05:27.884 --> 0:05:30.124 But like, if you look at kind of what Democrats 0:05:30.204 --> 0:05:33.004 that are arguing for the shutdown the most really care about, right, 0:05:33.404 --> 0:05:35.684 They're like, yeah, healthcare would be would be nice, right, 0:05:37.444 --> 0:05:40.444 And they are on the right side of public opinion 0:05:40.524 --> 0:05:43.764 on that issue. I mean, these cuts are unpopular or 0:05:43.804 --> 0:05:46.244 failing to extend the subseas, I should say, right to 0:05:46.244 --> 0:05:48.844 the extent that you know, you're almost doing Republicans a 0:05:48.884 --> 0:05:53.044 favor if they agree to amend this. Potentially, Chuck Shumer 0:05:53.044 --> 0:05:56.844 will say, Republicans are refusing to take our input on 0:05:56.964 --> 0:06:01.564 a budget and have this negotiation over healthcare that everyone 0:06:01.604 --> 0:06:07.364 wants to have, right, and therefore the shutdown is their fault. 0:06:07.604 --> 0:06:07.764 Right. 0:06:08.004 --> 0:06:12.604 Whereas like for the past month, everyone's been arguing in 0:06:12.604 --> 0:06:15.684 the New York Times that you know about Democrats shut 0:06:15.724 --> 0:06:18.044 down the government to take a stand against Trump, and 0:06:18.044 --> 0:06:20.684 we're not sure what the stand should be about. And 0:06:20.764 --> 0:06:24.404 Chuck Schumer settled on healthcare eventually, right, But like for 0:06:24.484 --> 0:06:27.444 all types of reasons. I suggested it should be about tariffs. 0:06:27.444 --> 0:06:30.484 I guess anyone else like that idea. Right. Some people 0:06:30.564 --> 0:06:32.844 just think that, hey, we cannot in good conscious vote 0:06:32.844 --> 0:06:35.564 to fund this government. Right. And you've seen some like 0:06:35.604 --> 0:06:38.444 seepe to that message, like Santa Chris Murphy, the santer 0:06:38.444 --> 0:06:41.444 from Connecticut who loves to be an MSNBC. Right, but 0:06:41.484 --> 0:06:43.204 he's saying, yeah, it's not just about health here, let's 0:06:43.204 --> 0:06:45.644 be honest. Right. A lot of the Democratic influencers what 0:06:45.644 --> 0:06:47.604 do you call the murdy media personnelity, are kind of 0:06:47.644 --> 0:06:50.204 saying the same thing and so like, So it's it's 0:06:50.244 --> 0:06:54.804 a it's a hard tight rope, yeah, to walk right, 0:06:55.164 --> 0:06:55.604 it's kind of. 0:06:55.604 --> 0:06:57.884 A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation 0:06:58.004 --> 0:07:00.724 if you think about it. You know, since you referenced 0:07:01.564 --> 0:07:04.364 Chuck Schumer, because you remember, last time we talked about 0:07:04.404 --> 0:07:07.244 the shutdown, it was averted because Schumer decided that it 0:07:07.284 --> 0:07:09.964 was time to you know, compromise a vertist shut down, 0:07:10.244 --> 0:07:13.324 and he got pillaraied for it. His approval ratings were horrific. 0:07:13.364 --> 0:07:15.684 People are like, oh, we can't believe you caved. Now, 0:07:15.804 --> 0:07:18.244 you know, he's like, okay, fine, we're going to stand strong, 0:07:18.284 --> 0:07:21.564 we'll shut down the government, and his approval ratings still suck, right. 0:07:21.644 --> 0:07:23.844 He now he's getting blamed for the fact that the 0:07:23.884 --> 0:07:27.124 government shut down. So it's it is, you know, as 0:07:27.164 --> 0:07:30.884 you say, it's a tight it's a hard tightrope, tight 0:07:30.924 --> 0:07:33.564 tight rope. It's a hard type rope to walk, and 0:07:33.804 --> 0:07:38.284 there seems to be little way to walk it short 0:07:38.444 --> 0:07:42.164 of some of sides that are willing to compromise, and 0:07:42.204 --> 0:07:45.404 that doesn't seem likely in the in the immediate term. 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:47.324 No, I mean, first of all, there's some degree of 0:07:47.364 --> 0:07:49.524 like posturing it. First. I think it was very predictable 0:07:49.524 --> 0:07:51.804 that you'd have at least this amount of shutdown, right, 0:07:53.124 --> 0:07:58.964 you know, poles show that more the public blames Republicans 0:07:58.964 --> 0:08:02.324 and Democrats right now, right, but like, I'm not sure 0:08:02.324 --> 0:08:04.724 that really tells us who's winning the shutdown. Sure, I mean, 0:08:04.764 --> 0:08:06.764 we'll just kind of assume as a default that Republicans 0:08:06.804 --> 0:08:10.444 are more obstructionists, I think think, right, and so like 0:08:10.484 --> 0:08:13.324 Democrats will kind of the they kind of buy about it, 0:08:13.364 --> 0:08:15.484 and they say, oh, we are you know, our hand 0:08:15.564 --> 0:08:17.924 is forced right where it's like, you know, people can 0:08:17.964 --> 0:08:19.684 read the New York Times where you argue about this 0:08:19.804 --> 0:08:23.884 and like your ham was not forced. Now what you 0:08:23.924 --> 0:08:26.164 could say is like, look, you know what, you got 0:08:26.204 --> 0:08:28.884 your majorities in Congress. The majority can change the rules 0:08:28.924 --> 0:08:31.324 that it needs to write. We have so many problems 0:08:31.364 --> 0:08:34.644 with a the budget and b everything that Donald Trump 0:08:34.684 --> 0:08:37.244 is doing that we're not going to fucking support anything 0:08:37.244 --> 0:08:40.124 that Donald Trump does. It requires affirmative Democratic votes, right, 0:08:40.284 --> 0:08:42.804 so go ahead and break the filibuster. You're insincere about 0:08:42.804 --> 0:08:45.204 it anyway, Right, they already keep pairing away at it 0:08:45.564 --> 0:08:48.084 as Democrats have two in some cases. Right, So you 0:08:48.124 --> 0:08:50.364 have the votes, pass your budget, and we'll see you 0:08:50.364 --> 0:08:53.004 at the midterms. But instead there's this like spin that 0:08:53.084 --> 0:08:55.804 like I think is designed to like like designed to 0:08:55.844 --> 0:08:58.404 win this pole question, like the first Washington Post pole 0:08:58.444 --> 0:09:01.764 that comes out says, Okay, who is more blame for 0:09:01.804 --> 0:09:03.564 the shutdown? And just that one question because the other 0:09:03.644 --> 0:09:07.044 questions aren't necessarily so good for Democrats or Republicans, then 0:09:07.084 --> 0:09:09.764 maybe you win that. But like you know, when you're 0:09:09.804 --> 0:09:13.284 in a repeated game to ground this in the show 0:09:13.524 --> 0:09:17.644 a little bit, then credibility matters. I don't mean so 0:09:17.724 --> 0:09:21.084 much with Republicans, right, there's not very much trust there anyway. 0:09:21.084 --> 0:09:23.684 But I mean with I mean with voters, yeah, a 0:09:23.724 --> 0:09:27.044 little bit, right, Whereas if you had owned the shutdown, 0:09:27.044 --> 0:09:29.244 it might have been more unpopular at first. Now look, 0:09:29.404 --> 0:09:32.204 part of it is at Schumer's job is probably a 0:09:32.244 --> 0:09:36.764 fair bit of risk. In fact, a plurality of Democrats 0:09:36.804 --> 0:09:39.964 in a new pupil disapprove of Chuck Schumer have an 0:09:40.004 --> 0:09:43.444 unfavorable view of him. Not a majority, but plurality. You know, 0:09:43.484 --> 0:09:47.084 he is also very much threatened by AOC or other 0:09:47.124 --> 0:09:49.284 primary candidates in twenty twenty eight when he runs in 0:09:49.324 --> 0:09:53.284 I guess three years from now. He's also old as fuck. 0:09:53.324 --> 0:09:54.844 I mean, he's not old as fuck, He's just old, 0:09:55.244 --> 0:09:57.084 not as fuck, just old Nate. 0:09:57.124 --> 0:09:59.004 We have other we have other people for whom we 0:09:59.044 --> 0:10:00.164 should reserve the a s. 0:10:00.204 --> 0:10:04.124 Fuck. Yeah, he's just old. He's just old, not old 0:10:04.164 --> 0:10:09.124 af But like so, he probably wants to like give 0:10:09.244 --> 0:10:12.404 the annoying did I say annoying? He probably wants to give, 0:10:12.444 --> 0:10:18.124 like the partisan Democrats a win. Right that we have 0:10:18.204 --> 0:10:20.724 flexed our power. This keeps the base happy. We've gotten 0:10:20.804 --> 0:10:25.244 some some token or maybe not so token concessions on 0:10:25.284 --> 0:10:28.484 healthcare and things like that. Right, this shows it when 0:10:28.484 --> 0:10:31.924 we stand and fight that we win right, yeah, big 0:10:32.924 --> 0:10:35.964 morale boost. Does it provide much more than morale? I 0:10:35.964 --> 0:10:38.324 don't know. Does it help you win the midterms? I 0:10:38.324 --> 0:10:40.764 don't know. Right, the people that care about this are 0:10:40.804 --> 0:10:43.484 people are gonna vote anyway for the most part. But like, 0:10:43.764 --> 0:10:47.284 but if Schumer blows it, right, if he caves too soon, 0:10:48.404 --> 0:10:51.604 then he's gonna look like he's weak, and then he 0:10:51.684 --> 0:10:53.724 might be out of power. Right. If it goes on 0:10:53.804 --> 0:10:57.204 too long, then A everybody kind of gets more egg 0:10:57.204 --> 0:10:59.244 on their faces. B he loses control of the mestry 0:10:59.284 --> 0:11:01.284 doesn't really have to begin with. And so like, he 0:11:01.284 --> 0:11:05.764 would love to have that that you know early, that 0:11:05.964 --> 0:11:09.644 October tenth to fourteenth window that probably market says one 0:11:09.684 --> 0:11:11.764 and four chance, he would love He would love for 0:11:11.804 --> 0:11:14.484 that window to happen. Right, the more it goes on, 0:11:14.564 --> 0:11:17.204 and the more you already have influential Democrats saying, you know, 0:11:17.484 --> 0:11:19.964 it shouldn't really be about healthcare, come on, right, then 0:11:21.004 --> 0:11:26.404 it becomes this big uncertain morass. And look, you know 0:11:26.844 --> 0:11:30.284 you already have some swing state Democrats who are worried 0:11:30.524 --> 0:11:34.564 about this. Right, John Fetterman is not on board with 0:11:34.604 --> 0:11:38.804 a shutdown center from Wyoming. She's not on board with it. 0:11:38.844 --> 0:11:41.804 Angus King from Maine. Jared Golden is a representative from 0:11:41.844 --> 0:11:45.324 main very in the Trumpy District, Independent minded, right, So, like, 0:11:46.124 --> 0:11:50.364 I don't think Democrats feel like this is gonna be 0:11:50.404 --> 0:11:54.604 a big win for them, right, but like, but you 0:11:54.644 --> 0:11:58.244 know whatever, I mean whatever, have fun, you know, have fun. 0:11:58.364 --> 0:12:00.084 It's kind of it's kind of actually not that high 0:12:00.124 --> 0:12:02.004 stakes compared to a lot of things are going on, 0:12:02.084 --> 0:12:03.444 which is kind of to me why it feels like 0:12:03.444 --> 0:12:07.524 a little bit discordant. But they have to make it, 0:12:07.524 --> 0:12:09.564 they have to make a move, right, and they like, 0:12:09.604 --> 0:12:11.204 they couldn't do nothing or Sumer might lose his job 0:12:11.204 --> 0:12:13.004 if he did nothing right, and they don't really have 0:12:13.044 --> 0:12:15.684 a great hand to play. But Republicans aren't popular either, 0:12:15.764 --> 0:12:19.764 and they're insincere in their own ways, believe me. And 0:12:19.804 --> 0:12:24.204 what Democrats are asking for is fundamentally pretty reasonable. I think, 0:12:24.684 --> 0:12:26.964 uh yeah, so yeah, so there we are. 0:12:27.444 --> 0:12:29.324 Yeah, No, I think I think this is that was 0:12:29.364 --> 0:12:32.084 a good summary. And one other thing that I will 0:12:32.124 --> 0:12:35.844 say is, you know, note the language that you've been using, 0:12:35.884 --> 0:12:38.684 which is also the language that they're using, which is, oh, 0:12:38.724 --> 0:12:40.644 we need to win. You know, we're fighting a war, 0:12:40.684 --> 0:12:42.924 et cetera. So if we couch this back in game 0:12:42.964 --> 0:12:46.564 theoretic terms. You know, they are making this into more, 0:12:47.164 --> 0:12:49.364 you know, of a zero sum contest than it has 0:12:49.444 --> 0:12:52.324 to be. Right, it's like a US versus them, like 0:12:52.404 --> 0:12:55.364 we we need to win, as opposed to Okay, let's 0:12:55.484 --> 0:12:59.604 let's figure out this is just positive some like let's compromise, 0:12:59.804 --> 0:13:03.364 let's let's do what's good for the country. That language 0:13:03.364 --> 0:13:06.404 has largely disappeared right now, even though at the end 0:13:06.404 --> 0:13:08.484 what we will need is some sort of a compromise. 0:13:08.524 --> 0:13:10.804 And as you point out, Nate, some of the things 0:13:10.844 --> 0:13:13.844 like healthcare, those are going to help Republicans as well 0:13:14.524 --> 0:13:19.684 in the midterm elections. If Democrats actually can get that changed, 0:13:20.364 --> 0:13:22.324 it'll help the general public, but it will also help 0:13:22.404 --> 0:13:24.884 Republicans because a lot of people who will otherwise be 0:13:24.964 --> 0:13:28.324 incredibly pissed off will no longer be pissed off. And probably, 0:13:28.364 --> 0:13:30.604 as you say, you know, they're the people who already 0:13:30.604 --> 0:13:32.844 pay attention to this, and then those who don't. I'm 0:13:32.884 --> 0:13:34.564 guessing that a lot of those people who would have 0:13:34.644 --> 0:13:40.204 lost health care coverage if we if nothing was done right, 0:13:40.444 --> 0:13:43.604 won't even realize that this happened, right. They won't even 0:13:43.684 --> 0:13:45.884 realize that there was a change that there was a 0:13:45.924 --> 0:13:48.484 compromise that Democrats had anything to do with it. They'll 0:13:48.524 --> 0:13:50.324 be like, yeah, see, we knew that Trump would never 0:13:50.364 --> 0:13:52.724 take away our health care because if you're not paying 0:13:52.724 --> 0:13:57.004 attention to those kinds of behind the scenes machinations, then 0:13:57.044 --> 0:13:59.324 you might not even you might not even realize that's 0:13:59.324 --> 0:14:03.284 the case. So that'll be a win for Republicans as well, 0:14:03.284 --> 0:14:05.604 as you said. And so I think that it's just 0:14:05.964 --> 0:14:09.844 very interesting to see how, you know, politics has always 0:14:09.844 --> 0:14:12.524 been a fight to some extent, but the extent to 0:14:12.564 --> 0:14:15.924 which the language has become kind of zero sum radicalized 0:14:15.964 --> 0:14:18.804 as opposed to a more you know, we all serve 0:14:18.884 --> 0:14:21.964 the people type of rhetoric, which would be I think 0:14:22.004 --> 0:14:24.884 a little bit more appropriate here, but clearly not the 0:14:24.924 --> 0:14:26.844 stage at which we find ourselves. 0:14:27.084 --> 0:14:30.004 Yeah, so it's not zero someone if you're an incumbent, right, 0:14:30.044 --> 0:14:32.484 because one sure pause block cooming is that people get 0:14:32.524 --> 0:14:36.244 really mad at incumbents in general. And so, you know, unfortunately, 0:14:36.844 --> 0:14:38.484 given the type of incumbents we have, you know, we're 0:14:38.484 --> 0:14:41.964 represented in Congress by this current generation of representatives, and 0:14:42.884 --> 0:14:45.404 if there's a pack book on other houses, then they 0:14:45.524 --> 0:14:48.484 might lose. Where the split between the parties goes right. Yeah, 0:14:49.084 --> 0:14:52.164 but yeah, you know, Poland shows pretty clearly that Democrats 0:14:53.124 --> 0:14:56.884 no longer want compromise with Republicans, right, They want they 0:14:56.964 --> 0:15:00.524 want to fight. You know, I as always am contrarian 0:15:00.604 --> 0:15:02.404 because I thought that the spring was a better time 0:15:02.484 --> 0:15:05.724 to shut down than now. You had Elon Musk as 0:15:05.764 --> 0:15:10.084 a good, good scapegoat. I think I'm more salient scapegoat 0:15:10.084 --> 0:15:15.004 slash you know, relevant excuse because he was fucking with 0:15:15.044 --> 0:15:16.924 the budget, right, and I think they were a little 0:15:16.924 --> 0:15:19.404 slow to move then and now it's like, I mean, 0:15:19.884 --> 0:15:23.604 the fact is that when you're out of shut out 0:15:23.684 --> 0:15:28.084 of Congress, shut out of of the Supreme Court, basically right, 0:15:28.604 --> 0:15:32.964 you're shout out of the presidency. You're even losing control 0:15:33.244 --> 0:15:38.604 over blue academic media institutions that you once controlled. I mean, 0:15:38.644 --> 0:15:43.124 you know, Democrats are are number one very angry, right, 0:15:43.324 --> 0:15:47.364 and number two feel like they need something, anything that 0:15:47.404 --> 0:15:48.444 they can call a win. Yep. 0:15:48.804 --> 0:15:51.844 Yeah, I think that the optics are incredibly important. So yeah, 0:15:51.884 --> 0:15:55.204 let's see what happens. Let's see if Chuck Schumer can 0:15:55.284 --> 0:15:59.404 hit his magic window or not. Holymarket odds are against it, 0:15:58.924 --> 0:16:02.884 but we shall see. On that note, let's take a 0:16:02.924 --> 0:16:05.444 quick break and when we come back, we're going to 0:16:05.444 --> 0:16:10.284 talk about the new open AI release sore or sorry, Nate, 0:16:10.484 --> 0:16:21.924 Sora too. So last week, last Friday, October third, open 0:16:22.044 --> 0:16:26.044 a I released a new app. And even if you're 0:16:26.284 --> 0:16:30.444 you know, not terminally online, unless you're living under a 0:16:30.564 --> 0:16:32.924 rock and you have some form of social media, you 0:16:32.964 --> 0:16:35.764 were probably aware that Soora was released, because I don't 0:16:35.764 --> 0:16:38.684 know about your news feed, Nate, but my newsfeed briefly 0:16:38.724 --> 0:16:43.484 became just like completely Sora with the announcement video, all 0:16:43.524 --> 0:16:47.564 these other videos, just people were just going crazy. So 0:16:47.764 --> 0:16:50.484 for a good twenty four hours, Sora was my newsfeed. 0:16:50.764 --> 0:16:54.204 And this is kind of the next gen video generation 0:16:54.404 --> 0:16:58.804 app that they've been working on. And yeah, it's as 0:16:58.844 --> 0:17:02.484 of now invite only, but man, it's as of now 0:17:02.524 --> 0:17:05.844 still free, even though there are you know, already murmurs 0:17:05.844 --> 0:17:08.124 that it's not going to be for for much longer, 0:17:08.164 --> 0:17:12.324 because Sam Altman said that he wasn't he wasn't prepared 0:17:12.364 --> 0:17:15.004 for how many people would be making those those videos, 0:17:15.244 --> 0:17:19.164 which I've seemed very strange, Like, of course, of course 0:17:19.204 --> 0:17:22.164 you're you should be prepared for the volume that it's 0:17:22.204 --> 0:17:24.764 going to generate at this stage, right, you seem to 0:17:24.764 --> 0:17:27.044 be unprepared every single time you release something new. 0:17:27.124 --> 0:17:31.044 Well, that can be a classic tactics in politics too. Absolutely, 0:17:31.084 --> 0:17:33.284 Oh my god, we have an overflow capacity here at 0:17:33.324 --> 0:17:35.724 this tiny venue that you should pick a bigger venue. Right. Yeah, 0:17:35.724 --> 0:17:39.084 it looks good on TV. Yeah, it generates buzz right yep. 0:17:39.884 --> 0:17:43.604 So yeah, let's let's talk about soa. Let's talk about 0:17:43.964 --> 0:17:47.964 you know, the good, the bad, the ugly. But first, 0:17:48.564 --> 0:17:51.364 just a brief explanation. So, Nate, have you used Sora 0:17:51.484 --> 0:17:52.164 yourself yet? 0:17:52.884 --> 0:17:54.484 I am not. I don't know why I was going 0:17:54.564 --> 0:17:56.524 to use it in preparation for this program. I don't 0:17:56.564 --> 0:18:00.244 have any What would I do with it? Yeah? 0:18:00.284 --> 0:18:01.564 I feel the exactly. 0:18:02.164 --> 0:18:03.844 I mean, it seems it's like, oh, you can generate 0:18:03.844 --> 0:18:05.324 in the image, and it's like, okay, I have a 0:18:05.364 --> 0:18:07.244 good imagination, you know what I mean? Yeah, Like what 0:18:08.084 --> 0:18:09.924 I do with it? Do I feel like the old person? 0:18:10.084 --> 0:18:12.324 I mean no, I mean I actually feel I feel 0:18:12.364 --> 0:18:14.964 the same way, which is that it's using a whole 0:18:15.004 --> 0:18:17.044 lot of capacity for something that I don't know how 0:18:17.124 --> 0:18:19.244 much of this we need. But the idea is that 0:18:19.284 --> 0:18:22.404 you give it a text prompt and then it creates 0:18:22.884 --> 0:18:25.844 a video from it. And the video is when I 0:18:25.844 --> 0:18:28.204 said next, jen A, I really is. It does look 0:18:28.204 --> 0:18:32.164 a lot better than AI generated videos did before. You 0:18:32.364 --> 0:18:37.204 can even upload your own photograph. I would actually urge 0:18:37.244 --> 0:18:39.724 you not to do that because this is more training 0:18:39.804 --> 0:18:43.364 material for the apps and you kind of lose a 0:18:43.364 --> 0:18:45.444 lot of control over it. Anyway, we can, we can 0:18:45.484 --> 0:18:48.884 talk about that. But so you can upload your own image, 0:18:48.924 --> 0:18:52.404 you can use historical figures. People have been making videos 0:18:52.764 --> 0:18:57.524 of MLK. The most famous one that has been circulated 0:18:57.684 --> 0:19:03.724 is sam Altman shoplifting from a target. So yeah, you can. 0:19:04.044 --> 0:19:06.684 You can give it lots of prompts and it spits 0:19:06.724 --> 0:19:09.364 out the output and as of now it is water 0:19:09.524 --> 0:19:13.604 are marked, but the watermarks are already being removed. They're 0:19:13.644 --> 0:19:16.644 not very sticky, it turns out. But yeah, so it's 0:19:16.684 --> 0:19:21.244 this new frontier of video generation. And even though it 0:19:21.284 --> 0:19:24.964 says that they have guardrails about usage, you know, consent, 0:19:25.804 --> 0:19:31.604 celebrity usage, political violence, people have already demonstrated that Zura 0:19:31.764 --> 0:19:39.764 is capable of creating incredibly realistic images of things like protests, 0:19:40.604 --> 0:19:46.804 violence in the streets, you know, things that border closely 0:19:46.844 --> 0:19:50.124 on political violence, which it says it doesn't allow, and 0:19:50.284 --> 0:19:56.124 some experts in video AI generation and detection. So there 0:19:56.164 --> 0:20:00.604 are people who have companies that actually are supposed to, 0:20:00.764 --> 0:20:03.764 you know, be very very very accurate at figuring out 0:20:03.804 --> 0:20:06.804 is a SAI generated or not? Are saying, hey, this 0:20:06.924 --> 0:20:09.244 is really tough, right, Like, some of these are actually 0:20:09.604 --> 0:20:14.564 quite good, and it's becoming very difficult to figure out 0:20:15.204 --> 0:20:17.684 whether or not this is real or not, which is 0:20:17.724 --> 0:20:22.284 scary because once we stop having that capacity, what happens 0:20:22.324 --> 0:20:25.524 with video evidence, right, what happens with deep fakes, what 0:20:25.724 --> 0:20:29.204 happens with kind of the ability to tell what is 0:20:29.324 --> 0:20:33.164 real from what isn't real. We're already We're at the doorstep. 0:20:33.204 --> 0:20:36.004 We're almost there, and I think Sarah will probably take 0:20:36.084 --> 0:20:37.244 us over the doorstep. 0:20:38.284 --> 0:20:41.004 Yeah. Look, you can have a watermark, or you can 0:20:41.044 --> 0:20:44.724 have some type of digital signature embedded, right, or you 0:20:44.724 --> 0:20:47.524 can just say, okay, there are artifacts that suggest that 0:20:47.524 --> 0:20:51.444 this is artificial, right. You know, I suspect we're probably 0:20:52.444 --> 0:20:55.004 a few years away from because there's more going on 0:20:55.124 --> 0:20:57.404 with vision than text, you know what I mean? You know, 0:20:57.764 --> 0:21:00.204 these AI detectors for like college essays I think are 0:21:00.244 --> 0:21:04.564 not very reliable, but like visual artifacts are like harder. 0:21:04.644 --> 0:21:10.044 I believe to entirely eradicate potentially, right, you know, just 0:21:10.244 --> 0:21:12.084 to be able to manipulate photos for a long time. 0:21:12.124 --> 0:21:14.724 I'm not sure it's changed things all all that much. 0:21:14.964 --> 0:21:17.564 I don't know. I mean everyone, like people are always 0:21:17.604 --> 0:21:23.804 like misinformation, this misinformation that, right, Like I think it's important, 0:21:24.244 --> 0:21:27.564 but I think that's something people will adapt to. And 0:21:27.604 --> 0:21:29.604 I don't know. I mean, I'm more interested in, like 0:21:30.284 --> 0:21:34.364 what this tells us about, like what open AI wants 0:21:34.404 --> 0:21:36.804 to be, right, and how will AI become a part 0:21:37.084 --> 0:21:39.844 of our life. I suppose you know, this is not 0:21:41.284 --> 0:21:44.924 what you would call a particularly high brow product, you 0:21:44.964 --> 0:21:45.484 know what I mean? 0:21:45.684 --> 0:21:46.964 No, it is not. 0:21:48.964 --> 0:21:51.644 It's refined and interesting and I'm sure you'll see interesting 0:21:51.804 --> 0:21:54.244 art produced with it, and you know, I say that 0:21:54.324 --> 0:21:57.164 on ironically and things like that, but like this is 0:21:57.444 --> 0:22:03.924 kind of a facebooky product, not to not to demean 0:22:04.164 --> 0:22:09.044 our friends at meta, right, but like this is consumer focused, 0:22:09.884 --> 0:22:15.004 middle brow, right. They seem not to be terribly concerned 0:22:15.004 --> 0:22:20.324 about like you know, the use of copyrighted characters and 0:22:20.604 --> 0:22:22.964 whether that falls under fair use is a legal debate, right, 0:22:24.284 --> 0:22:26.684 But like you know, I think if they were trying 0:22:26.724 --> 0:22:28.484 to go for a more intellectual crowd, they might have 0:22:28.884 --> 0:22:31.724