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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, good morning chat.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: It's perfect. It's like kind of chilly in the Northeast.

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Speaker 1: I get the layer. I turned on the heat in

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Speaker 1: my office today. I'm looking at these lines and there

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Speaker 1: is an abundance, an abundance of opportunity. Today is our

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Speaker 1: NFL Week six Best Bets episode, where Simon and I

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Speaker 1: narrow down our five picks and the favorites one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Sign up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.

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Speaker 1: We will get into the foxhole. We'll give out our

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Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls bet of the week. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay,

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Speaker 1: the Underdog Round Robin, so much more bets are rolling

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Speaker 1: in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As our

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Speaker 1: volume podcast Boss Colin Cowhard likes to say there's a

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Speaker 1: sea of money out there as a reminder. The Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now

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Speaker 1: new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up

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Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet

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Speaker 1: for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off

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Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right as always

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Speaker 1: on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how

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Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's

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Speaker 1: how influential we are the lines move based on our conversations,

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Speaker 1: and pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon,

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Speaker 1: let's do sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do?

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Speaker 2: All right? Chat? Well, off the top, we're against the

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Speaker 2: pros and a lot of our picks. What could go wrong?

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Speaker 2: They like the Ravens, and I mean, we could dive

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Speaker 2: into that game more. It might be win. They might

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Speaker 2: bullow me out of our Washington love.

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Speaker 1: But I'm hoping they do.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So yeah, it's the Joe public play. We talked

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Speaker 2: about it, but I don't know. I just think the

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Speaker 2: books they've been caught up to those Washington teams the

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Speaker 2: professionals think they have and that this number should be

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. And this Washington team is truly

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Speaker 2: at the peak of their value right now. So again,

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Speaker 2: you just said we're gonna dive into that one, So

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Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to that. We talked about the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: that Broncos game. The Pros they love the Broncos. It's

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Speaker 2: not as split as you think it would be. It's

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Speaker 2: not Pros versus Joe's. It's actually the public and the

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Speaker 2: pros on Denver and a couple of professionals are out

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Speaker 2: there taking this Chargers team. So that feels like it's

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Speaker 2: going to be a couple of pros and the books

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Speaker 2: against mainly the public. Right with that Denver number. Another

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Speaker 2: game we talked about that we love. We knew this

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Speaker 2: was going to be this way. We love the lines.

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Speaker 2: The pros absolutely love this Dallas team, and it reminded

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Speaker 2: me a lot of what we loved about the Rams

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Speaker 2: last week. Right, the Rams got the three and a half,

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Speaker 2: just like this Dallas number did. The professionals came in.

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Speaker 2: I'm obviously heavy with the money, have bet this back

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Speaker 2: down to three at most books. Well, I'll see how

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Speaker 2: you feel about it, chat, I haven't waivered. I still

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Speaker 2: like this matchup for Detroit. I think that what they're

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Speaker 2: betting on is a lot of historical trends and the

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Speaker 2: reason they're back in this Cowboys team they think. I

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Speaker 2: guess that the lines will be sluggish come up a bye,

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Speaker 2: but I'm looking forward for us bricking that one down.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Giants one I talked about that. I

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Speaker 2: love that game. The professionals love that. There there classic

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Speaker 2: spot of you know grab the three and a half

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Speaker 2: now if you want. But I already talked about it.

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Speaker 2: I could see this number going down if Neighbors gets cleared.

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Speaker 2: Hasn't got cleared yet, even though a couple of books

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Speaker 2: are already showing threes. I'm hoping, hoping Neighbors gets cleared today,

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Speaker 2: and that's when I look like a genius for getting

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Speaker 2: this number early. But right now, if you didn't get

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Speaker 2: the three and a half on Tuesday, you could still

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Speaker 2: get it right now. Neighbors has not been cleared, so

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Speaker 2: that number has not moved in the last one A game.

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Speaker 2: Me and you both love the Pros, love the Jets.

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Speaker 2: This is a nice spot the bet the Jets. It's

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Speaker 2: a good value on the number. So I'm sure that's

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Speaker 2: a game we're gonna break down as well. So at

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Speaker 2: the start of it, I was a little nervous because

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Speaker 2: they were on the other side of a lot of

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Speaker 2: our picks. But we came back around there at the end.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see how this week goes for us.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't feel like they are actually And so

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Speaker 1: there's two things we have a preponderance of this week

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Speaker 1: that are all sort of thematic home underdogs. A ton

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Speaker 1: of home underdogs, Evan, I don't know if you know

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Speaker 1: if this is accurate. I heard Stucky say this on

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Speaker 1: the podcast with Chris raibon the Action Network podcast on

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Speaker 1: Thursday Mornings said it might be the most home underdogs

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Speaker 1: in one week in NFL history. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: he got that from you, Evan.

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Speaker 2: Right about in his article, but he did know. It's

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Speaker 2: smooth because there's only nine home dogs now because there

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Speaker 2: was ten, but the Tennessee flipped so favorite, right.

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Speaker 1: And I want to talk about that game. So there

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Speaker 1: was ten, now there's nine. We talk about the public

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Speaker 1: a lot games in which the betting tickets are lopsided

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Speaker 1: for one team. That is a key indicator that the

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Speaker 1: public is on that side. A reminder that this season,

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Speaker 1: the betting public so when fifty one percent or more

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Speaker 1: of the tickets are on one side or the other,

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Speaker 1: they are twenty eight, forty six and two this season.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what ats percenters that is, if someone

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Speaker 1: can throw that in the chat, but it is the

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Speaker 1: worst start for the betting public through four weeks in

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Speaker 1: the past twenty years. And by the way, their best

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Speaker 1: week was last week when they went six and eight

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Speaker 1: and Simon and I happen to suffer the consequences of

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Speaker 1: some of that. So when we talk about betting against

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Speaker 1: the public, it is historically a good idea. It is

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Speaker 1: definitely a good idea. This year, we're going to get

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Speaker 1: into it starting with this very first game. And Simon,

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Speaker 1: Washington and Baltimore. Baltimore is still six and a half.

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Speaker 1: You are, and admittedly on the opposite side of the

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Speaker 1: wise guys on this. You said that on Tuesday when

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Speaker 1: you said you were into this game. This is great.

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Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of the tickets are in Washington, fifty

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Speaker 1: two percent of the money is on Baltimore. It is

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Speaker 1: a one hundred percent pros Joe's split. I have not

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Speaker 1: been able to come around to your side, and we

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Speaker 1: have been looking to sell the Commanders right. How much

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Speaker 1: higher can they fly? How much better can Jayden Daniels

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Speaker 1: really be? Matchup wise? This does play to the raven strengths.

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Speaker 1: They're one of the most efficient early down teams in

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Speaker 1: the league going against one of the worst early down offenses.

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Speaker 1: And we've said this before, like against the Chiefs last

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Speaker 1: season in the title game, which if the Ravens had

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Speaker 1: just run the ball, they would have dominated that game.

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Speaker 1: If they can do that keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Historically,

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Speaker 1: teams covering the spread by five points or more like

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Speaker 1: the Commanders only cover forty three percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's my Raven's take. I know you have

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Speaker 1: Commander's take here, So I don't know if I can

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Speaker 1: help put you over the edge and being bullied.

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Speaker 2: Can't because I got my man Evan here, who's got

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Speaker 2: some amazing numbers. If you look at just teams who

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Speaker 2: were playing on seven days rest or less that played

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Speaker 2: an overtime and now they're playing against a team that

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Speaker 2: hasn't played over time, they are just forty two percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread. Guess who fits that description This Raven's team. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And there's there's a bunch of other stuff that trends

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Speaker 2: a point to this team here and this Commander's team.

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Speaker 2: I think you kneel it though. The fear here is

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Speaker 2: when do we get off this boat? And it was

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Speaker 2: same with last week. It was like I knew that

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Speaker 2: was the right spot to take watching against the Cleveland

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Speaker 2: But me and Chat have done this long enough to

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Speaker 2: know that eventually it's gonna fall off. Like it's just

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Speaker 2: how football is. You just can't be consistently great every

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Speaker 2: week and everything goes so smooth. And what this kid

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Speaker 2: doing is doing right now, Jane Daniels, that we've just

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Speaker 2: you know, I've never seen anything like it with a

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Speaker 2: rookie being so confident that nobody.

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Speaker 1: Has seen anything. It's it's literally precedent setting.

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Speaker 2: So I told you my view of it is pretty simple.

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Speaker 2: These professionals, they've bet ten K against them when they're

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Speaker 2: playing against Arizona. They've done twenty K when it was

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Speaker 2: against Cleveland. Now they're up to thirty K. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're just going to keep up in the bet because

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Speaker 2: they know eventually it's going to hit for him. And

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Speaker 2: I just I don't agree with the logic, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I just I won't take watching on the

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Speaker 2: money line here because we know the Lamar stats against NFC. Right,

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Speaker 2: He's twenty one and one straight up against the NFC.

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Speaker 2: That's a big deal, right, He's historically even if he

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Speaker 2: doesn't cover the big spreads, which me and you always

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Speaker 2: love to fade Lamar in this spot like this is

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Speaker 2: when he does not cover, he does not cover.

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Speaker 1: Then in eighteen is a spread of more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal. Say that number again, seven and eighteen as

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Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite of more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal.

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Speaker 2: So you know we have to do long term. This

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Speaker 2: is a bet you're supposed to make, like this is

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Speaker 2: a bet you're supposed to make on the Commanders because

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Speaker 2: long term it is a winner.

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Speaker 1: Right, But there's so many trends that say long term,

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Speaker 1: this is a bet on the Ravens. There's one thing

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Speaker 1: you said last week that sort of hammered home. Why

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Speaker 1: that gives me a little pause, which is this Ravens

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Speaker 1: defense at the end of the game tends to go

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Speaker 1: soft right when teams have to pass against them. That

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Speaker 1: is their greatest weakness. They are not a good pass

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Speaker 1: defense right now, and Jaden Daniels the opportunity to have

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Speaker 1: to be throwing the ball. If they're down by thirteen points,

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Speaker 1: they're down by twelve points, they're down by ten points,

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Speaker 1: they're down by eight points, down by seven points. All

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, the back door is wide open. And

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Speaker 1: as much as I think the Ravens are the right side,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on this defense against Jayden

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Speaker 1: Daniels at the end of the game where the Commanders

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Speaker 1: can't win, but they can certainly get closer, and nobody's

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Speaker 1: on that team is going to stop playing. That's what

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Speaker 1: worries me. But do I feel good enough about betting

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Speaker 1: on a back door hope? Do you know what I mean? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think we're all just you again. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: we mean you've done this long enough to know that

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Speaker 2: this is just a fishy line. There's a couple of

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Speaker 2: fishy lines this week, and this is one of them

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Speaker 2: where it's like, I don't get why this number is

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Speaker 2: so big. I think they would be getting just as

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Speaker 2: much action on Washington if this was four and a

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Speaker 2: half then they would if it was six and a half.

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Speaker 2: So that's what say. It scared me a little bit

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Speaker 2: is the books are taking a position. Professionals are taking

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Speaker 2: a position with the books long term. That's usually a

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Speaker 2: nice spot to be. So unfortunately it's probably not gonna

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Speaker 2: be one of our five. But I don't know. I'm

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Speaker 2: dug in here on Washington. I do like washing at

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Speaker 2: this number. It's just all the other outside noise and

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Speaker 2: everything else is just giving me a lasitation here because

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Speaker 2: we just know something's off about this number in this line,

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Speaker 2: and to me, it's either the books. You're protecting knowing

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Speaker 2: that if they had made this number shorter, they'd be

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Speaker 2: get a lot more Washington money, and maybe they're taking

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Speaker 2: a position that way. But yeah, this is definitely one

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Speaker 2: of the games that, even if I don't have a

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Speaker 2: lot of money on, it's gonna be one of the

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Speaker 2: center TVs.

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Speaker 1: Simon, we have to do two things on this show today.

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Speaker 1: We have to give people a foxhole and we have

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Speaker 1: to give people our big ball Better the Week presented

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Speaker 1: by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John

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Speaker 1: has the support. Great games start with great underwear. The

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Speaker 1: sign over my shoulder says it all and Tommy John

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Speaker 1: makes the greatest and what we are going to do

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Speaker 1: today right now with our big balls, we are going

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Speaker 1: to tell people to do something that will require support

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Speaker 1: because you and I are both in on the New

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Speaker 1: England Patriots as seven point underdogs at home against the

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans. I like it for the spot, I like

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Speaker 1: it for the matchup, I like it for the number.

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Speaker 1: I like it for the trends. It is our big

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Speaker 1: Balls bet of the Week, Simon. I even check the weather.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be beautiful in New England. Let's roll

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Speaker 1: are you with me?

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Speaker 2: I am Chad, But historically it's not ideal to bet

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Speaker 2: rookies in their first start. But I think from your

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Speaker 2: perspective and my perspective is this is when we want

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Speaker 2: to fade this Houston tea. They're on the road. CJ

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Speaker 2: is a favorite, and not even just a short favorite.

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Speaker 2: He's a seven point favorite in this matchup without Nico

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Speaker 2: Collins and maybe without Joe Mixon once again, And like,

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Speaker 2: to me, that's the big deal here. The fear for

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Speaker 2: us is Newland's offensive line is terrible and they've had

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Speaker 2: some really serious injuries to that that you know that

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Speaker 2: should really benefit this Houston team attacking. But isn't this

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Speaker 2: the quarterback you want behind a bad offensive line? That Broussette,

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Speaker 2: who's a statue back there. You want Drake May who

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Speaker 2: can move and you know, to me, he's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a one or two read and pull the ball down

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Speaker 2: and run the ball, which is honestly what I want

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Speaker 2: with this team right now, New England. So I get

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Speaker 2: people's hesitation here. I looked in our contest before we

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Speaker 2: got on here. It is six and a half. That's

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Speaker 2: obviously a choice will have to make. I mean maybe

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Speaker 2: if we get lucky, it gets seven and a half

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Speaker 2: comes Sunday, if more money comes in on Houston. But

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm not gonna let that scare me off here.

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Speaker 2: I think you're right, like, we have to play this spot,

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Speaker 2: play this number. This isn't that terrible of a matchup

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Speaker 2: for this New England team. The only pause for me,

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Speaker 2: once again is just they lost a lot of guys

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Speaker 2: in the offensive line and that that should benefit this

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Speaker 2: Houston team. But should they be a seven point favorite?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. I don't think Chad thinks that either.

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Speaker 2: I think this is way too much respect for Houston

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Speaker 2: team that this season they're one and four against the spread,

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Speaker 2: like they're a team that the books have no they

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Speaker 2: can prop up and the public will come in heavy

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Speaker 2: on them and that's good for the book. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think we're getting an extra point and a half

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Speaker 2: of value here. Chet's I'll definitely take this number on

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Speaker 2: New England.

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Speaker 1: Well, looks Simon, if you want to fade the public,

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Speaker 1: this is the game to do it, because about ninety

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Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are coming in on Houston. I

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Speaker 1: want to remind people underdogs of six plus points are

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Speaker 1: now eleven or eight straight up in sixteen to two

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread. Do you want to bet

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Speaker 1: a public bet against the public? Sorry, I just got

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Speaker 1: something in my eye. Bet against the public after a

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Speaker 1: bad game, you do sixty one percent against the spread

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Speaker 1: to the team that had just played terribly since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five, that is the New England Patriots. I

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Speaker 1: agree with you. At first, I was a little bit

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Speaker 1: worried about Drake May being the starter but that offensive

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Speaker 1: because it feels like malpractice to put in that guy

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Speaker 1: behind that offensive line, which is terrible. But it's terrible

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Speaker 1: whether the guys are injured or not. And I agree

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Speaker 1: with you. What you're going to get from Drake May

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Speaker 1: is someone who's a really good athlete who's going to

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Speaker 1: be mobile and is going to move, so it actually

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Speaker 1: could counteract the pressure. Don't forget the Texans have the

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Speaker 1: best pressure rate of any defensive line in the NFL

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Speaker 1: and Dneil Hunter has the league best pressure rate of

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Speaker 1: any defensive lineman at twenty nine percent, So it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter how bad this is, it might actually play to

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Speaker 1: their advantage. And you mentioned CJ. CJ on the road

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Speaker 1: this year is just a different player. His ypa yards

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Speaker 1: per attempt and his touchdown rate are both way way down,

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Speaker 1: and now they have no Nico Collins, who has been

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Speaker 1: the best wide receiver in the league. And as you said,

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Speaker 1: Joe Mixon he didn't practice yesterday, so again he's a veteran,

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Speaker 1: but he hasn't played in a few weeks. It's not

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Speaker 1: looking good for him to be at full strength on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: So I feel like this continues to be a good

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Speaker 1: spot and biggest luck rankings gap on the board twenty

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Speaker 1: five places, sixty two percent against the spread. Historically, go Pats, go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both of you, but we both know

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Speaker 2: going into this why we might not cover. It's just

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Speaker 2: because Drake May is a rookie mick in his first start,

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Speaker 2: and he could do some really stupid shit. You know,

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Speaker 2: a little Bernie told me this. This move didn't come

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Speaker 2: from the head coach or the coaching staff. This came

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Speaker 2: from ownership. After watching that Miami game where you know,

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Speaker 2: if it was Drake May, I think they probably would

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Speaker 2: have beat Miami in that game. Brissett just played so

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Speaker 2: bad that I think after watching they just go, we

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Speaker 2: have to make this change. Because I do agree with

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Speaker 2: most people saying that, well, their whole reason for nowt

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Speaker 2: starting was their offensive line. They didn't want to ruin them,

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Speaker 2: right because they had such a bad offensive line. Now

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Speaker 2: the offensive line is even worse now they're playing them.

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Speaker 2: And I just told people it's the ownership. I think

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Speaker 2: they're just sick of watching Brusett and they're just like,

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Speaker 2: you know what, we see three other rookies out there

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Speaker 2: playing really well, winning games. We have to see what

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Speaker 2: we have here in this kid. So I totally understand

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Speaker 2: why they're putting Drake in at this point. I know

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Speaker 2: the fans are like not really understanding what the move is.

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Speaker 2: I think it's just it's watching all these other guys

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Speaker 2: enjoy their new toys and you're just sitting there with

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Speaker 2: Brissette and you're just like, we can't just keep throwing

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Speaker 2: this guy out here. This is just terrible football.

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Speaker 1: You know who doesn't get swayed by public pressure. Good

351
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 1: moment and Simon Hunter, the co host of the Favorites podcast,

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00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 1: which is why even after a not great start to

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Speaker 1: the year, we're undaunted when we put in the New

354
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Speaker 1: England Patriots as our Big Balls Better of the Week

355
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 1: sponsor by Tommy John, which we know makes the most

356
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Speaker 1: comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It truly has changed my life.

357
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Speaker 1: I've never been happier with my undergarments. When you're truly comfortable,

358
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Speaker 1: to Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, this

363
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: next game, I'm so bummed Simon India Tennessee. Tennessee is

364
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 1: now a two and a half point favorite. And on Tuesday,

365
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Speaker 1: we want to put a pin in this one and

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Speaker 1: see what the sharp calls might have to say or

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Speaker 1: how we felt after we dug in a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: And yesterday this line got up to one and a

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Speaker 1: half in the afternoon, and like, I didn't pull the

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Speaker 1: trigger because I kind of want to hear what you

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Speaker 1: had to say about it. But I spent twenty five

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Speaker 1: minutes on the game and I'd fallen I love with

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Speaker 1: the Titans, Oh geezs Home Dogs, and I was ready

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Speaker 1: to blow your mind with why we should do it.

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Speaker 1: And then late yesterday afternoon it had been Tennessee plus

376
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 1: one and a half flipped to minus one. Now it's

377
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Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. I don't know why.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if this is Pittman. I don't know

379
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Speaker 1: if this is because they think Anthony Richardson might play

380
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Speaker 1: Who's Yea better? But I was devastated because I felt

381
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Speaker 1: good about the Titans at plus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Anthony Richardson, And I would be pretty terrified

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Speaker 2: if I was a fan of the Colts and realization

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Speaker 2: that Anthony Richardon is worth three and a half points

385
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Speaker 2: less than Joe Flacco. That is rough, But that's what

386
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Speaker 2: it has to be like to me. There's no other

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Speaker 2: reason for that type of movement, especially where you know,

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Speaker 2: I talked to a book maker yesterday. It's all Colts

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Speaker 2: money right now. So like that was where I was

390
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Speaker 2: gonna come around and be on your Tennessee side of

391
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Speaker 2: It was just like, okay, this this is clearly a

392
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Speaker 2: trap being laid by the books. The professionals came in,

393
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 2: they hit this number, the books moved that with him.

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00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 2: It's still a lot of Colts money. So I don't know, Chef,

395
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Speaker 2: if this got to three three and a half. I'd

396
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 2: really be tempted to come back on the Colts just

397
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Speaker 2: because this Tennessee team and Will Levis is that bad.

398
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Speaker 2: You know, this Colts team as much you want to

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Speaker 2: knock Anthony Richardson that he's not as good as Joe Flackett,

400
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 2: which I agree with. You know, his style of play

401
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 2: in that offense, when they cater around him, it's it's

402
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 2: pretty damn good. Like he threw what the beginning of

403
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: the season, he was winning close, ugly games, and he

404
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 2: was keeping his team in these ugly games. So there

405
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 2: might be a little bit of overreaction too much. I mean,

406
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 2: at what point does the line move too much on

407
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: him coming in? That's what I'll wait on now, because

408
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: I'm with Chad. I didn't understand this line when it opened.

409
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 2: I wanted to be in the Colts. Tennessee was obviously

410
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Speaker 2: the right side. Now it's moved so much. I'll just wait.

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Speaker 2: Hope this gets the three and I'll throw a little

412
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Speaker 2: bit on the Colts here. But I'm happy this one

413
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Speaker 2: won't be in our because I can't imagine me letting

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Speaker 2: Chad talk to Chad talking me into taking Will Loves

415
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Speaker 2: as one of our five here.

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Speaker 1: And dude, my arguments were so good, Like, honest to god,

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Speaker 1: yesterday afternoon I was working on this. It's the game

418
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Speaker 1: I spent the most time on because all of a sudden,

419
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Speaker 1: I was doing the work and looking at the numbers

420
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Speaker 1: and seeing who was going to be playing, and thinking

421
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Speaker 1: about the bye week and thinking about when have the

422
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Speaker 1: cults done well? And why have they done well? And

423
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Speaker 1: what have the circumstances been, all those things that we

424
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Speaker 1: think about, and I'm like, Titans are the side, And

425
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: I was like, so in, I'm kind of glad I

426
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Speaker 1: didn't pull the trigger because now hearing you, I would

427
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: have been more nervous. But I definitely felt like I

428
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: was going to be able to convince you, like I'm

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Speaker 1: on the list. I made my preliminary list yesterday. They

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Speaker 1: were definitely like top six yesterday. The Titans to me

431
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 1: at plus at plus, you know, at a plus number.

432
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,479
Speaker 2: But I read your stat your favorite stat about you know,

433
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 2: a team moving from a dog to a favorite on the.

434
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 1: Line seems to open his underdogs and close as a favorite.

435
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: Historically struggle to cover that number seventy one and one

436
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,479
Speaker 1: hundred against the spreads in twenty nineteen forty two. So

437
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 1: the flip side of this is now all of a

438
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 1: sudden that makes the Colts decide.

439
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's again the hesitation here. I mean, we'll

440
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: talk about there's a couple games this week with the

441
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 2: books are really taking up position on them, but this

442
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 2: is clearly one of them. Like if you look in

443
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: our app right now, it's still all Colts much.

444
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: All cult Yeah, so it's ridiculous.

445
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 2: Be careful out there, people.

446
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Like if there's something something fishy, something fishy,

447
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: you know, something smell right, something to smell right. Arizona

448
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: green Bay, Green Bay still a five point favorite. I

449
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 1: am shocked that there is no conversation about this game

450
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: from professionals there.

451
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: But it's split.

452
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: It's like the line isn't really moving. Like everything I

453
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 1: said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's

454
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me

455
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: lean Packers Cardinals just won their biggest game of the year.

456
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: Like the biggest difference is to me, the Cardinals are

457
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: a very public dog, and that makes me feel better

458
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: about the Packers right now. I don't have it up.

459
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: I lost the tab, but the public number on this

460
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 1: game real quickly I'm getting to it is, you know,

461
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the tickets are on the Cardinals, sixty

462
00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:00,040
Speaker 1: three percent of the money on the Cardinals. So it

463
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: feels like, at least from a public point of view,

464
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 1: they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers

465
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 1: even more.

466
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the professional bits I talk to, it's split

467
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: where the trend betters people who just simply bet trends,

468
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 2: they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of

469
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 2: really good trends to this Cardinals team, and a lot

470
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: of good trends that fade Green Bay in this spot.

471
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 2: But a lot of the professionals I talk do they

472
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: like what we like here with Green Bay kind of

473
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 2: in a nice spot against the Cardinals team that you know,

474
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 2: we expect to have a letdown game. But yeah, after

475
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: reading Evans article, I got a little bit of pushback

476
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: on that Kyler is actually not as bad as you

477
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: think he would be in this spot. Historically, teams actually,

478
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: you know, beating divisional divisional games as a big underdog

479
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 2: actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the

480
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: road back to back weeks. But I don't know, Chad,

481
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: There's something I can't shake here where feels like we're

482
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 2: still getting value. And it's like, what, I still think

483
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: this number should be closer to six and a half seven.

484
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: I still like it. If you still like it, if

485
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 2: you want to put it in as one of our favorites,

486
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like I

487
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: bet this number, I bet Green Bay in this spot.

488
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 2: You know, to me, I get all the drama. They

489
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: have a wide receiver right now. They were still able

490
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 2: to figure out how to move the ball downfield last week,

491
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 2: and if that means getting more touches to their tight end,

492
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 2: Lafloor is happy to do that. Like this man just

493
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: knows how to game plan and just how to attack

494
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 2: defense's weaknesses. So you know where I stand with this

495
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 2: Arizona team. I think they do have a really exciting offense.

496
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 2: I just I just don't think they have the guys

497
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: on defense to get stops like they've just been so bad.

498
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 2: And if, like we talked about last week, the forty

499
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 2: nine ers gonna lose their kicker, that was a totally

500
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: different game. They looked like a totally different team in

501
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: that second half, where you know, we haven't really seen

502
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 2: that from multiple teams that have played Arizona. So yeah,

503
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: this is this is a tough one in your chat.

504
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: It's it is split. I'm trying to find an angle

505
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: on it. That really makes me love this Green Bay team.

506
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, it's just I just

507
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 2: like the number. And that's the toughest part here.

508
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: I know, I can't find I can't find the thing.

509
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: Well, I was hoping edyone would give me some good

510
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 2: news on his trends, but it was all it was

511
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 2: all Arizona, man.

512
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 1: It was all Arizona. And like, look, we go through

513
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 1: a checklist on these things, right. We look for the

514
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,719
Speaker 1: home dogs. We look for games in which we think

515
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 1: the book is going to shade one side or the

516
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: other because of public perception of how a team played

517
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: the week before. The Bengals are a perfect example that

518
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: the car I mean, not the Bengal. The Bengals are

519
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 1: a perfect example. That the Commanders are a perfect example

520
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals are a good example of that. But

521
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: then we're also looking at the matchups and we try

522
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: to glean like which side might have a true edge,

523
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: And then we're looking at the trends and like, nothing

524
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 1: says Packers other than to me, the eye test and

525
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: this team. There are some numbers nothing, but I mean

526
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: nothing overwhelming that says to me one side or the other, this.

527
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 2: Might make you feel better though the Cardinals have allowed

528
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: This is from our guy Evan. The Cardinals have allowed

529
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 2: opposing qbs to complete a combined seventy two point five

530
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: percent of their passes this season. They're allowing eight point

531
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,479
Speaker 2: fourteen yards per attentph, the third highest ranked market in NFL.

532
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 2: Their pass defense is thirtieth and drop back per EPA

533
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 2: and thirty second in drop back success rate. So this

534
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: is really us saying, jordan Love, this is a bet

535
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 2: on you. Like yes, like this is really us betting

536
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 2: on him to really dominate this Cardinals defense that has

537
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: been atrocious against the pass.

538
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: I think you just perfectly captured what I was trying

539
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: to say in numbers when I said this is an

540
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: eye test game. To me, we've been seeing Jordana Love

541
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: get a little bit better and he wasn't preferred against

542
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: the Rams, but he made the throws he needed to make.

543
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: Now we're three weeks back from the injury, we're back

544
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: at home against a defense that you know, if you

545
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: want to compare to the Vikings, who was his first

546
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: game back is one of the best defenses in the

547
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: NFL and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL,

548
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: and Brian Flores. He is not doing that this week

549
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals' offense is turnover prone

550
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: against a very opportunistic Packers defense. So that's why. And

551
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: I think we are getting a little bit of a

552
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: benefit in the number. Will it be on a final five,

553
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: I don't know, because we don't like to put too

554
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: many favorites in, and I do think we both feel

555
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: strongly about Detroit, but it certainly is in the mix.

556
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: For me, we still got to get a foxhole. We

557
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: haven't gotten there yet. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. Look

558
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: to me, this was a pass. The only reason I

559
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: put it in is because now I feel like it's

560
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 1: the Saints or nothing like. This number has moved so

561
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: much because of the Derek Carr injury news. I'm actually

562
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: not that afraid of betting on Spencer Rattler at home

563
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: as a dog or betting against the Bucks. Yeah, you know,

564
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: on the road as now nearly four point favorites, like

565
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: it just feels like too much to me.

566
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: I know, I regret I'm making assignment, says guy. I

567
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 2: as soon as we got done the show, I always

568
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 2: just hammering that two and a half on that Bucks number,

569
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: and I told people I was gonna bet it, they

570
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 2: should bet it just in case Derek Carr was out.

571
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: But you're so right, Like now that it's three and

572
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: a half, I know we're supposed to take this kid

573
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: and this Saints team, but man, like, when you really

574
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: dive into it, like the Saints losing their center, I

575
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: didn't realize how big of a deal was going to

576
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: be for them. I think they're zero and three since

577
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: he's gone out. Yeah, like they just have not been

578
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: the same team since that offensive line got banged up.

579
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: And you know, say what you want about Derek Carr,

580
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: he's one of the best deep throwers of the ball

581
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 2: this season. Like he's been really good attacking deep downfield.

582
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: And that's what their offense is, right, the kind they

583
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: kind of burn you with the run and then they

584
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: hit you into play, actually go deep on you. I

585
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: don't know if I have faith in a rookie to

586
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: come in and run the style of offense. So yeah,

587
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: Chad's right, if you're out there and you want to

588
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 2: take the three and a half. I get it, but

589
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna dig in. I'm gonna take the Bucks here,

590
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: probably still at minus three and a half. I just

591
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: I keep thinking about them trying to run the ball

592
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 2: against Vita today, and it's just I don't know how

593
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,959
Speaker 2: they establish a run with this Saints team. And you know,

594
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: say what you want about this Bucks team coming off

595
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 2: that loss to Atlanta. I feel like they're gonna be

596
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 2: desperate here. And that's really when we've seen the Bucks

597
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: be good when they're really not desperate but a little

598
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 2: bit right, like when they're not counted out. This is

599
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 2: when they're good. So Chad's right. Historically, I don't want

600
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 2: to back the Bucks here. We like them when they're

601
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 2: either a short favorite or a dog, neither of which

602
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 2: they are here. So I'm good with passing on this one.

603
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: But I get where you're coming from saying that it's

604
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: probably the spot to take New Orleans. I just I

605
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 2: can't get there. I just think they're a bad team

606
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: right now.

607
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised to hear you say that. This

608
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 1: feels so chalky of you.

609
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: Chalk wins, baby, not always, but certain spots. But yeah,

610
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I wanted to be on the Saints,

611
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: but I don't think the numbers moved enough for me

612
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: to take them.

613
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 1: God, that's fascinating. All right.

614
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 2: Did you watch Spencer Rattler.

615
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: I watched him in college. I actually there's a.

616
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 2: Reason he was whatever it was, a fifth round pick.

617
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

618
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: Look, I mean I felt like I think back to

619
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: those that year when he was taking over at Oklahoma

620
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: and everyone thought he was win the Heisman. Yeah, and

621
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 1: within four games, Caleb Williams was on the field bringing

622
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,479
Speaker 1: him back against Texas, and all of a sudden, you know,

623
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: he was eighteen months away from winning the Heisman himself

624
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: and then becoming probably will end up being the greatest

625
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 1: quarterback in the history of football, with the most excellent

626
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: franchise at developing quarterbacks in the history of football. So

627
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: I've always felt a little bit bad for Spencer Ratler,

628
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: and I watched a bunch of those South Carolina games,

629
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: and he can sling it, for sure, but he's got

630
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,719
Speaker 1: a little bit of a Taylor Heineke vibe, right like,

631
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: he'll make these plays that will feel great. This is

632
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: what I'm projecting, and then he's going to lose that

633
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: game for us. If we had bet it. You know

634
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: what I mean. Chargers at Denver, this one deserves some conversation.

635
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: I love this game for the Chargers on Tuesday. I

636
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: think you did too. From a ticket and money well.

637
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: Just because we don't understand the line. Yeah, I told

638
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 2: you I had this plane at one and a half.

639
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: It was three. I was like, there's something I'm clearly

640
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 2: missing here with this Chargers team.

641
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: Look, the Broncos are clearly the public dog. They're getting

642
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: about sixty percent of the tickets, and the line has

643
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: moved in their direction. It's gone for three to two

644
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: and a half, which I don't mind. I know that

645
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: taking the Chargers goes against the home division dog trend,

646
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: but there's also I think a sell high trend in

647
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: the Chargers favor, the same one I mentioned with the Commanders.

648
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: These teams that have been covering by more than five

649
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: points per game historically covered a forty three percent rate.

650
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: So like, I like a lot of what I'm seeing

651
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 1: for the Chargers, I do worry where giving them a

652
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 1: little bit too much credit for Joe Alton Rashaun Slater

653
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 1: coming back. We still don't know what's happening with Bosa.

654
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: Denver's run game is actually better than the Chargers. We

655
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: like to think about the Chargers as a run team,

656
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: but their early down success as a run team has

657
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 1: been better against common opponents. Bo Nicks has been a

658
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: better quarterback than Justin Herbert this year. I know that's

659
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: hard to say, but I'm not as all in as

660
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 1: I was on Tuesday.

661
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: Well, just because of what we talked about. Like, I've

662
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 2: talked to a bunch of professionals and they like Denver

663
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 2: as well, and that's I'm with you on that where

664
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: it's like I want to be with you, guys, I

665
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: want to be on Denver. This feels like this is

666
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 2: their smart side, but you have the spidy senses like

667
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 2: I do. There's something off about this number, something very

668
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 2: telling that makes me want to take this Chargers team.

669
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 2: And you know, a couple of books moved them to

670
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: two and a half. I bet it. It's like, Okay,

671
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: now it's under three, I might as well take the

672
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: Chargers here. I thought it would keep going down. Now

673
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 2: most of these books are back up to three. So

674
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: it's a little telling, Like clearly there's professional money out

675
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 2: there that's driving this money. This number back up the three.

676
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 2: Now look at the matchup. I do want to give

677
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 2: a ton of credit to Joe Wall. Like this kid coming,

678
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: I knew he was going to be really good watching

679
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: his tape through the first three weeks before he got hurt.

680
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,919
Speaker 2: He was really good. Like the way he handled Nex

681
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: Crosby as well without help was incredible. Like his one

682
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: on ones against him were so impressive for a first

683
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 2: year starter. To me, the what I think, what I

684
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: thought you thought on Tuesday is this offensive line can

685
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 2: neutralize the strength of Denver right now, which is their

686
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: front seven. Like that to me has been the difference

687
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: this season for den Is how good their front has

688
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: been playing. But you can counter that with a really

689
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 2: good offensive line and a great run blocking scheme, which

690
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 2: we believe the Chargers have here, Chad. So I do

691
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 2: think this is a nice you know, sell high in

692
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 2: the Denvers by low on this Chargers team, And if

693
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 2: it is minus two and a half, maybe I'll be

694
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 2: able to convince you. But I can see it's just

695
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: not one of your favorite bets, which I totally understand.

696
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, this is another favorite just like Green Bay.

697
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: I'm dug in on here.

698
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: Wow, God, that's so fascinating. On Tuesday, on Tuesday, I

699
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,760
Speaker 1: was so dug in on Green Bay and the Chargers,

700
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: and forty eight hours later, I'm wavering because we's been favorites.

701
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 2: We like ben dogs, that's who we are, right.

702
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: But on Twoda and on Tuesday you were sort of

703
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: not as dug in on idea because.

704
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: I didn't get this line at first. I was just like,

705
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 2: what are these guys? Seemed? But again, I've talked to

706
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 2: enough bookmakers professionals, and I see the reasoning behind it,

707
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 2: and sometimes again my model is just going to be wrong,

708
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 2: And that's what I was just. I was like, how's

709
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: my model so off on this one? How's it off

710
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 2: by point and a half? But yeah, my only hesitation

711
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 2: right now is still I don't really have concrete word

712
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 2: on what's going on with Herbert. And I've seen footage

713
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 2: him in practice and moving around. He looks all right,

714
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: but it's like it's practice, right, He's not really being pushed.

715
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 2: So that to me is the hesitation here where it's like,

716
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: would I much rather take Detroit than this number? Hell? Yeah,

717
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 2: Like I know exactly what Detroit is. I know even

718
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: if it's my three and a half, I have more

719
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 2: confidence than that than I do in the two and

720
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: a half Chargers here, So that's my hesitation.

721
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: Here is just the Herbert News interesting. All right, all right, well,

722
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas.

723
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: Let's talk about how this number got up to three

724
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: and a half. This was my exact decision, and I

725
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit.

726
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did

727
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 1: bet at at three. I love it based on all

728
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: the matchups and the fundamentals, especially at the line of scrimmage.

729
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:10,479
Speaker 1: Every advanced metric you can think of, run block, win rate,

730
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: adjusted line yards, whatever crap the geeks are making up

731
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: these days, has the Lions O line top two, top

732
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: three in the NFL, if not first, And every one

733
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: of those metrics has the Cowboys run defense rated as

734
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 1: I think the technical term is trash. So the Lions

735
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,240
Speaker 1: are a more violent team and football is violence.

736
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again the reasoning for the pros, like when

737
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: I was talking, guys, why do you like this Dallas side?

738
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: I just don't think it's smart like they're saying. Dan

739
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 2: Campbell's an't predictable. This This team relies so much, so

740
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: much on their fourth down success rate. That's flukey game

741
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: to game, no way around it. Really, Ultimately that falls

742
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 2: on me. It's my fault. This Cowboys team is at

743
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 2: the lowest point. This is a good Bilo spot. I'm like,

744
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 2: they just won on a you know, a fourth and

745
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 2: four drive against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. So I just

746
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: disagree with a lot of it. And this is a

747
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: number that me and you might be totally wrong on.

748
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 2: We're missing something here, but you know all the historical

749
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 2: data that Detroit hasn't beat Cowboys in Dallas and forever

750
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: and all these different stuff. But it's like, I throw

751
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 2: it out exactly. I just told view it that way.

752
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: So I'm with Chad here, give me the best offensive

753
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: line that's great at run blocking against a suspect defensive

754
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 2: line that doesn't have their best run stopping defender. So

755
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 2: the only thing I can think here, we're gonna get

756
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: burned by a bad golf game because the last time

757
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 2: we saw him he was perfect. I think he was

758
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: eighteen for eighteen in their last win. You know, coming

759
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 2: off of bye week. Does that get in his head?

760
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 2: Does that get in the whole team's head? Right? Do

761
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: they come out sluggish in this game against a team

762
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 2: that technically this is a short rest week, right, they

763
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 2: were running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't

764
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 2: get home till what day morning to let their body

765
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: start healing. It's just everything lines up to love this

766
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm

767
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 2: hoping this is just like Washington Cleveland last week chat,

768
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 2: where the books are dead fucking wrong hanging a three.

769
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: Even if this is minus three and a half in contest,

770
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 2: I feel like we're going to force this one in regardless.

771
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 4: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been

772
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 4: this excited about.

773
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 2: The Lions talk about restoring the roar. Listen to him.

774
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: God, it's so interesting you say that because I don't

775
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: look at Jared Goff as potentially having a down game

776
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,240
Speaker 1: was because he was perfect. I think he was perfect

777
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: within the context of the offense. It's not like he

778
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 1: was thirty five of thirty seven for five hundred yards

779
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: and six touchdowns because they were coming back right Like

780
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 1: he was eighteen of eighteen and played a brilliant game

781
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 1: working off of the game plan. And I think that,

782
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: to me is indicative of what the Lions have done

783
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: on what Ben Johnson has done, what Dan Campbell has

784
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 1: dictated be done as the head coach of that team

785
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: in terms of what their emphasis is going to be

786
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: and honoring the fact that they have the best offensive

787
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 1: line in football and they can control the line of

788
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 1: scrimmage and he wants to be physical. And it's similar

789
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,959
Speaker 1: to me, like the thinking about the Chargers. And that's

790
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 1: why both of these feel strange to me, Like why

791
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: are on other people seeing what I'm seeing? But I'm

792
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: glad you are. That makes me happy you and I

793
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: together like that. All right, So Detroit's in, I mean

794
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: Detroit's in. Yeah, Atlanta, Carolina, here we go. Jesus fucking

795
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: I hate everyone. I hate everyone associated with the Carolina

796
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: Panthers and bookmakers for posting this number. This number is

797
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: at six. I stole some stats. Actually Network has a

798
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 1: weekly passer play column, right, and this was a stat

799
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: in the passer play column this week. Atlanta's three wins

800
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: this season have come by combined nine points, and it's

801
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: possible the Falcons could have and should have lost all

802
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 1: of those games. Week two, game winning two minute drive

803
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: against the Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven

804
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: point six percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining.

805
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:38,320
Speaker 1: Game three, a game winning fifty six yard field goal

806
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 1: after the Saints had an eighty four point five percent

807
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: win probability with forty one seconds left. Week five, over

808
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 1: time win against the Bucks when the Bucks had a

809
00:42:53,560 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: ninety three percent win probability with twenty two seconds left.

810
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: Seriously, Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the

811
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers plus six. You know me, regardless of what's

812
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 2: going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,

813
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,439
Speaker 2: I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Now

814
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 2: I have a stat that might make you feel a

815
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 2: little better from our guy, Evan. All Right, Kirk Cousins

816
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 2: career after a straight up win, He's thirty one forty

817
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: three and two against the spread, so forty two percent

818
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 2: after a straight up win, the second worst mark of

819
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty four QB since two thousand and three,

820
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 2: ahead of only Jay Cutler. Now as a favorite of

821
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 2: four points or more in that spot, Kirk Cousins four

822
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 2: and fourteen against the spread, Like he just he's dog

823
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: shitting this spot historically, and we're getting an inflated line.

824
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 2: There's no one left, Chad, this is it me and

825
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 2: you are it. We're the only people left that are

826
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 2: still betting Carolina this week. And to me, this is

827
00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 2: the exact spot we want to be in, Like Line

828
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 2: is going to struggle with is a team that defensively

829
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 2: has you know they can attack a young quarterback right

830
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: there's to me, their greatest strength right now is their

831
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 2: safety position. Like their safeties might be the best of

832
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 2: football at deceiving quarterbacks, giving them false reads, not letting

833
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: them get moved with the QB's eyes and something like

834
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 2: Amy Dolton can kind of neutralize that he's done and

835
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 2: seen at all, and you know this is historically a

836
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,319
Speaker 2: nice matchup for him. Then you add in fact that

837
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: this is an outdoors game, which historically Kirk is better

838
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 2: indoors than he is outdoors. And you know the fact

839
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: that I'm looking at our action app right now, it's

840
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,399
Speaker 2: less than eight percent of the bests, less than seven

841
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 2: percent of the money right now is on this Panthers team.

842
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 2: How do we not love this team to cover this game?

843
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 2: And just went straight up like, to me, this is

844
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 2: just everything about this game just screams upset and you

845
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: just read it though this Atlanta team has been incredibly

846
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: lucky and fortunate at the end of these games. And

847
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 2: even if we don't win this one outright, I feel

848
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: like we're going to cover it. Like it just feels

849
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 2: like either we're going to back door with Atlanta or

850
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 2: we'll get back door by Atlanta and we'll still cover

851
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 2: this six. So I love this number, the fact that

852
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 2: hasn't budged all week. You know, I was hoping for

853
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 2: a contest. This is gonna get up to six and

854
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 2: a half. I don't know if it's gonna get there.

855
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 2: We might stick five and a half, but I'm okay

856
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 2: with that. I just I love this spot for this

857
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: Carolina team.

858
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: Of the tickets on the Falcons. Like you said, we

859
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,479
Speaker 1: got a team coming off a bad game. We got

860
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 1: dogs of six plus points or more. We got division dogs. Historically,

861
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: this is the only side to play. Here's my challenge

862
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: to you. That's giving me a little pause, and it's

863
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 1: why I couldn't go full throttle on Tuesday. The Panthers

864
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 1: run blocking this season has been outstanding, right up there

865
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 1: with the with the Lions. This sort of amongst the

866
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 1: leave's best. They lost two offensive linemen on Sunday against

867
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 1: the Bears. That was huge for them. It changed the

868
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: scope of that game. And now we've got a team

869
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 1: that can't get any pressure from its defensive line and

870
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: a team that its only advantage was in run blocking,

871
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: and I don't think they'll be as good at run

872
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 1: blocking as they have been this season. I do worry

873
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 1: about their ability to move, and now I worry about

874
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: their ability to put any pressure on Kirk Cousins defensively,

875
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: and Kirk Cousins with a clean plocket, clean pocket, it's

876
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: pretty great. So that's my biggest concern. Like everything you're

877
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: saying is right, but as a matchup, I worry that

878
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: the Panthers will not be able to execute.

879
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 2: No, it's a disagree with you. And they're one and

880
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 2: four against the spread and one and four this season.

881
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 2: They suck. This is a bad team, but this is

882
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 2: this is life beting bad teams. You're just playing the

883
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 2: numbers here. I know it's tough getting this foxhol Chad.

884
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 1: Are we seriously talking about the Panthers and the Patriots

885
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: And with a couple more games to go that are

886
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: so gross when we are having a dreadful season so far,

887
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: Like you gotta be freaking kidding me.

888
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,240
Speaker 2: We're one five and zero week away from being five hundred.

889
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: We're not that bad.

890
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: That's true. That's true, all right, Cincinnati at the New

891
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 1: York Giants. This was your Simon Says, and you were

892
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: spot on. It's definitely trending towards three. It's another home

893
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: underdog playing against a massive public favorite in the angles,

894
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 1: like I don't have the trends here, but I do.

895
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,320
Speaker 1: Clearly the market believes you are. Simon says is accurate,

896
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: and we got to jump on the Giants.

897
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it was really honestly, we talked about it.

898
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: I was just I really thought Neighbors be cleared by now,

899
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 2: and this will move by half a point because to me,

900
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 2: that's what neighbors. Neighbors is worth half a point to

901
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 2: a full point to the spread for this Giants team.

902
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 2: And right now I have a greade at two and

903
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: a half. That's with neighbors in this game. If Neighbors

904
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 2: doesn't play, I'll move this number back up to three.

905
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 2: But I'm still having half a point of a key

906
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 2: number in this matchup against I think we can both

907
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 2: agree on I Cincina defense, that's just fraudulent, Like they

908
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 2: they had to show up in that game, right, They

909
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 2: just had to show up for one or two downs,

910
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 2: and they could not do it against Lamar. And that's

911
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: what I can't shake here. Where I want to be

912
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 2: with Chad. I wanted to be on the Bengals because

913
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 2: I've seen invested in their futures and I'm just like this,

914
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 2: this is a perfect bounce back spot for them in

915
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 2: their primetime game after that brutal loss. But I just

916
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 2: think the Giants are too well coached and they've been

917
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 2: playing too well to just be rolled over here. And

918
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 2: you know, even though I thought this was going to

919
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 2: be more public, I thought more public money would come

920
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 2: on the Giants. Chad just said it like this is

921
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 2: all Bengals money. All the tickets are on the Bengals

922
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: as well. So I would take the three and a

923
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 2: half here and hold and just hope maybe that you know,

924
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 2: Neighbors gets cleared and that would give me even more

925
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: confidence here. But if there is no Neighbors, Dad, I

926
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm going to force us to put

927
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 2: this in as one of our five because it's just

928
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 2: to me that Seattle game that got a little lucky

929
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 2: to win that one without them, right, like a lot

930
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 2: of things broke their way that offensively, Seattle played terrible.

931
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 2: And you know, Daniel Jones had, my mind, the best

932
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,359
Speaker 2: game I've seen him have since his first start ever

933
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 2: against the Bucks, which was like five six years ago.

934
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: So I love this Ghiints team. I love how their

935
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 2: defense matches up against this offense for the Cincinnati as well.

936
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, you can see I really like this spot

937
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 2: for this team. And yeah, it's all about the numbers.

938
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: If this was two and a half, I'd be happy

939
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 2: to play Cincinnati here, it's three and a half, I'm

940
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 2: gonna take the value and play the Giants here.

941
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: Well, look, as having is pointed out, this is the

942
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:55,919
Speaker 1: first weekend where the spreads aren't so so tight, right.

943
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 1: We've got a few games that are six plus points

944
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 1: again the spread, But this has been an historically year

945
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: year for short numbers, and I think heading into the

946
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,240
Speaker 1: week the average spread it was four point two points

947
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 1: per game. Those half points, just on a percentage increase,

948
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 1: mean more when the numbers are shorter, So I get it.

949
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 1: I'm a little anxious about this one for the contest,

950
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,879
Speaker 1: like you said, because the neighbors, we got a lot

951
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 1: of games we can we can throw in there. Last

952
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: game also disgusting Buffalo with the New York Jets. So

953
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: now we know it's not going to be Robert Sala.

954
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 1: He was fired Tuesday morning right before we came on

955
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: the air. We know that there's going to be a

956
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 1: new play caller. We know you want to bet on

957
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: the team that is the that is against the public

958
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 1: after a bad game the Jets. We know we want

959
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 1: to bet on home dogs. We know we wanted to

960
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 1: bet the dead cat bounce one of stuck his favorite trends,

961
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: which is betting on the team that has a brand

962
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: new coach. I'll be honest, this this is a massive

963
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 1: pros Joe's game. Like seventy seven percent of the tickets

964
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 1: on the bills. The money is split but trending in

965
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 1: favor of the Jets, like it'll get to fifty to

966
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 1: fifty pretty soon, So clearly it's a it's a professional game.

967
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 1: It was that two and a half. Has it moved

968
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 1: back to two?

969
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,280
Speaker 2: No, it's still two and a half, so you can get.

970
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: Two and a half. I kind of like this better

971
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: than the Giants and the contest. To be honest, I

972
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: don't know how you.

973
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:37,479
Speaker 2: Okay, I don't I like the Giants better, but that's fair.

974
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 2: Uh just it's the Obviously, the matchup for this Jets

975
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 2: defense is great. They always play Josh Allen really well.

976
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 2: To me, it's all the injuries to this Bills team.

977
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 2: The Bills just have so many injuries to keep players.

978
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 2: You just see last week against Houston had changed their

979
00:51:55,120 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 2: whole team, especially, you know this their offense is just

980
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 2: I don't know what they are yet. And you know,

981
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 2: through five weeks, you know they that they had moments

982
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 2: where Josh Allen looked incredible, right like the MVP we

983
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 2: all know and love, and then you just see the

984
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 2: hits piling up and it's just like they're asking so

985
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 2: much of their superman to do, Like when does this

986
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 2: catch up to him? And this is not a matchup

987
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 2: where you want to all beyond Josh Allen's shoulders, right

988
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: this this Jets defense they tend to turn him over

989
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: and they play him really tough. I mean, even going

990
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 2: back to the last three years when Sala was there,

991
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 2: they played really well. I know he's gone now, but

992
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 2: the scheme's still the same. The guy who's stepping in

993
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 2: there is kind of like not his clone, but basically

994
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 2: the same kind of guy. So yeah, looking at this matchup,

995
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 2: already liked the number. Now you're mixing in what you

996
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 2: just said. They got rid of the head coach, they

997
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 2: made a change offensive coordinator. I think if this hasn't

998
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 2: let a fire under this Jets team's ass, then then

999
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: in their season is over. Like this has to be

1000
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 2: the everything game. They throw it all out there. So

1001
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,360
Speaker 2: even talked about Josh Allen being banged up, right, that

1002
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: was another part of this. So we love, we love

1003
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 2: this number. We love this matchup. Our hardest thing is

1004
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 2: having to wait until Monday to know what our final

1005
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 2: five is, so that that's the only thing I might

1006
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 2: keep this out from being one of our five.

1007
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: But I know that's honestly, I know this sounds stupid,

1008
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 1: but I got to travel on Monday. I like, I

1009
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 1: really won't be able to settle in for the game,

1010
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,160
Speaker 1: Like I don't like when I get I'm traveling to LA.

1011
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can be awake when I

1012
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 1: to watch the end of the game, Like I'm just

1013
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: it's like I don't know if my heart can take it.

1014
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 2: No, it's tough, but yeah, I love this one, and

1015
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 2: I think Chad does too, so uh this is probably

1016
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 2: why this guy end up got on money line round

1017
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:48,879
Speaker 2: robin parlays. But uh yeah, we're literally betting on Josh

1018
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:50,799
Speaker 2: Allen to lose three straight games, which I thought was

1019
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 2: scared than Evan. Nice Nice. Evan told us that actually

1020
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 2: happened last year, So don't be too scared off by

1021
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 2: betting Josh Allen to lose three straight.

1022
00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 1: Games, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1023
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 1: the money line parlay. Well, listen, speaking of our money

1024
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: line parlay. Each week we give out a two team

1025
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:19,360
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay, and bet three six five boosts

1026
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 1: the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend

1027
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: under both game pages. And remember both games are eligible

1028
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:31,399
Speaker 1: for bet three six five's early payout promo, where your

1029
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: money line pick gets marked as a win if they

1030
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 1: take a seventeen point lead even if they lose. So

1031
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:40,799
Speaker 1: if you want to bet this, bettered at bet three

1032
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:45,880
Speaker 1: six five and the boosted money line parlay is a

1033
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: better Panthers Jets, find the boost under either the Panthers

1034
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:59,240
Speaker 1: or Jets game pages on bet three six five. Also

1035
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 1: a favorite contest reminder, Everyone's lowest weekly score in the

1036
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,839
Speaker 1: contest has officially been dropped. The updated total scores are

1037
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 1: now on the leaderboard. We are officially in a race

1038
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:17,439
Speaker 1: for our forty thousand dollars first place prize. Good luck

1039
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 1: to everyone. All right, now we got to get into

1040
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: our money line underdog round Robin.

1041
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay Day.

1042
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:32,880
Speaker 2: There will come.

1043
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:37,760
Speaker 4: Up Payday someday. Someday, there will come up payday. Halla

1044
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,959
Speaker 4: lou Yo wa Payday, tire, I will come up.

1045
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 2: Payday some day.

1046
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 1: Clearly we're gonna have the Panthers and the Jets. We

1047
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 1: should probably put in the Giants.

1048
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 2: Okay, do we go with a pick? Neither of us

1049
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 2: are on, but the public loves in Denver money line.

1050
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,840
Speaker 1: Okay, oh man.

1051
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I really want to go against the Ravens,

1052
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 2: but Lamar just doesn't lose those games. But that's that's

1053
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,560
Speaker 2: a nice value on Washington plus two thirty five.

1054
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you're hesitating because I thought for sure you

1055
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 1: were going to put that in there.

1056
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 2: I would, but Evans trends scare the shit, am. He's

1057
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 2: only lost one game in his career, but again, it

1058
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,719
Speaker 2: was to the NFC East. So maybe, yeah, maybe that's

1059
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 2: his scrypted nit NFC East.

1060
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 1: So now you're reaching deep into the bag of hope

1061
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 1: to try to pull out your favorite get.

1062
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 2: It's a tough week to find dog wins. Honestly, why

1063
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 2: don't we do the Colts? All right?

1064
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 1: Let's do the Colts?

1065
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:37,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right?

1066
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 1: So the money line round robin that is gonna be Panthers, Jets, Giants, Broncos, Colts. Simon,

1067
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 1: you can score letting.

1068
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: Now are we skipping it again?

1069
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 1: No, no, it's in the script. I'm going in order now. First,

1070
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 1: I need your biggest bets.

1071
00:56:56,360 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: Who right now? My biggest bet it's our Detroit Chalk Giants,

1072
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 2: not Chalk Jets, New England, and probably gonna be Green Bay.

1073
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 2: I mean, like right now, my two biggest ones right

1074
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 2: now are the Cowboys, I mean the Lions and the Giants.

1075
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 2: But I can see me adding more to the other

1076
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 2: positions by Sunday.

1077
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 1: It's weird how those could be the exact five we

1078
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 1: end up putting in.

1079
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: It could be terrible for us, It's true.

1080
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: It's just like, if we were to look at it

1081
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: right now, I think it'd be hard to leave New

1082
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 1: England out it'd be hard to leave the Jets out unfortunately.

1083
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 1: Like we both feel really good about Detroit, you know.

1084
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, And.

1085
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,440
Speaker 1: I feel like I convinced you on Green Bay and

1086
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 1: now you've convinced me. Two favorites and three underdogs, like

1087
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 1: very possible, that's where we end up landing. I'm not

1088
00:57:57,800 --> 00:57:59,479
Speaker 1: in a rush to put anything in right now.

1089
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 2: Knows where we leave out. It's definitely gonna win.

1090
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:08,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, So listen, Scoot Roulette, You're three and two this year.

1091
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 1: Somehow I'm on in five? What I think I do

1092
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 1: the math? Unless I did it wrong? Maybe, yeah, you won.

1093
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 2: I'm almost positive you one week one with me?

1094
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: Oh I did all right? All right, great, I'm winning four,

1095
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 1: not you. But you get to choose, Scoot Roulette, because

1096
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:31,520
Speaker 1: you are winning the season long contest.

1097
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 2: All right, I'll be a scumbag. I'll take your pick.

1098
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 2: I'll take De Troit minus three.

1099
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 1: You are a fucker that is ruthless. All right, you

1100
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do. Yeah, at this point, I

1101
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 1: got nothing to lose.

1102
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:49,959
Speaker 2: It's true.

1103
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 1: Give me the Pats plus seven?

1104
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 2: Love it?

1105
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: I mean, why not? Yeah, Scot proud you know what

1106
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 1: he went as Scooch says when all hope is gone,

1107
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 1: all that's left is relief. It's true, and in scuotru

1108
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 1: led I've basically come to that Scooch isn't brought back

1109
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 1: from the old school. Pod Jesus those are.

1110
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: That's high praise, man, I love it.

1111
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 1: All right, we got our last word here with Evan Abrams,

1112
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,959
Speaker 1: the director of research. Tell us something that'll make us happy, Evan,

1113
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 1: the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. All right.

1114
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 3: Well, we're into bye season. So with bye season comes

1115
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 3: me just telling you why Simon's picks are going to

1116
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 3: hit this week. But let's aside from that, let's just

1117
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 3: go with the Lions first. So team's off of bye

1118
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 3: versus a team not, which is very easy. Last twenty years,

1119
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:45,480
Speaker 3: those teams win fifty six point one percent of games.

1120
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 3: Awesome when they're road neutral favorites, that actually goes up

1121
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 3: to seventy percent on the money line. Now that also

1122
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 3: includes the Chargers this week, So a little bit of

1123
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,160
Speaker 3: buye back there in terms of how you guys might feel. Okay,

1124
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 3: one more level it which I think actually Simon brought

1125
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 3: this up earlier when talking about the game. So Dallas

1126
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 3: had that comeback last week and during the fourth quarter

1127
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 3: losing and won outright as underdogs. When those teams are

1128
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 3: dogs again in their next game after that situation, exactly

1129
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 3: as I spoke, thirty one and seventy one straight up,

1130
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: thirty percent forty six fifty six against the spread, forty

1131
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 3: five percent last decade. Just tough to get over that

1132
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 3: and do it again. And then you're talking about short

1133
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 3: week as mentioned, so a few factors would tell you

1134
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 3: to take the Lions. Now, let's talk about the Giants

1135
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 3: and Bengals for a second. So I kind of wanted

1136
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 3: to focus on just Cincinnati in this spot. Lots of scoring,

1137
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 3: high totals, ISH volatility isn't a great thing for predictability

1138
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:46,040
Speaker 3: and covering spread. So Cincinnati right now is the only

1139
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 3: team in the NFL scoring twenty eight plus and allowing

1140
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 3: twenty eight plus. Those teams through five games just thirty

1141
01:00:53,560 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 3: seven and forty eight against the spread forty three percent

1142
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 3: last twenty years. When they're away from home, that falls

1143
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 3: to forty percent against the spread. When those teams are

1144
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 3: under five hundred, that falls to thirty eight percent. So

1145
01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 3: just a good spot for the Giants in that one.

1146
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 3: And then I'll end here this game really wasn't talked

1147
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 3: about a ton. You've got Chad's Bears, you've got the

1148
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 3: Jaguars too, pretty much live in London, so I kind

1149
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 3: of wanted to give a few numbers on that game.

1150
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 3: So Caleb Williams, by my data, will be the sixth

1151
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback to start an international game. They didn't wave

1152
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 3: and want any Oh and to five straight up. Oh

1153
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 3: and to five against the spread for the five lost

1154
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: by fourteen plus points. So a bit of a difficult

1155
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 3: spot in just a blanket term. Then you kind of

1156
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 3: look at Jacksonville's side. Peterson's four and one straight up

1157
01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:37,680
Speaker 3: on neutral sites, obviously winning the Super Bowl, but he's

1158
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 3: three and one with the Eagles and Jags overseas. Jags

1159
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,560
Speaker 3: are actually themselves over five hundred straight up in ATS

1160
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 3: and international games, which I didn't think was actually the

1161
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 3: truth till I looked at it. Trevor Lawrence his fifth

1162
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:53,320
Speaker 3: game overseas, He's three and one straight up at ATS

1163
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:55,920
Speaker 3: against the number, He's actually scoring twenty two points per

1164
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 3: game in those games. I'll go one step further before

1165
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:00,120
Speaker 3: I get out of here. So this is Trevor and

1166
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 3: Doug's fifth international game. It's only Caleb Beniberflus's first. Those

1167
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 3: coaches with two plus game experiences in that international game

1168
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 3: four and one straight up, when the QB also has

1169
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 3: a two plus experience, they're two and oh straight up.

1170
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 3: Very small samples, but probably just tells you what you

1171
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 3: would know anyway, which is experiencing these short week, weird

1172
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 3: overseas when you go games kind of matters.

1173
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 1: That means it's gonna be hard to bet the Bears

1174
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 1: this week.

1175
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what we were saying. You know, you're supposed

1176
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 2: to bet the Jacks here, but it is. It is tough.

1177
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 2: It's a tough one.

1178
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 1: It's a really tough one. As a reminder, the Favorites

1179
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now

1180
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 1: new Bet three six five. Customers get two hundred dollars

1181
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:48,400
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1182
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01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in

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01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

1185
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:01,439
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never

1186
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 1: ordinary at bet three sixty five must be twenty one

1187
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 1: or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1188
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:13,120
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1189
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1190
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:19,680
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditions

1191
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1192
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action Network. You two

1193
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:30,000
Speaker 1: page on Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap

1194
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 1: our NFL week six. Downloadus from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever

1195
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe me us five stars,

1196
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

1197
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:51,600
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1198
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:54,360
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1199
01:03:54,520 --> 01:03:57,160
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1200
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:58,040
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