WEBVTT - Is the Singularity Coming? 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.240 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:14.840 Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to another episode of 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:17.000 Forward Thinking, the podcast that looks at the future and 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:21.480 says one singular sensation. I'm Jonathan Strickland, I'm Lauren Pola, 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.840 and I'm Joe McCormick. So, you, guys, how is it 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:30.760 possible that we've gone this long with a forward thinking 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:36.440 futuristic podcast and not really touched upon the singularity. I 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.560 mean we we've joked about it a couple of times, 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:43.200 were slacking. They say it's near. Well, yeah, depending upon 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:47.280 whom you ask, it's gonna be um like any day now. 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:51.479 So we thought it's high time we actually take a 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:54.440 look at the singularity, talk about what is this idea 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:58.160 of the singularity, What does it mean? What do people 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:00.920 who are super duper small aren't have to say about 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:03.520 it on one side or the other, And kind of, 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.479 I guess, ultimately kind of give our own opinions about 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:11.280 what we think. Keeping in mind that we are not 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:14.480 futurists in the strictest sense of the word. This is 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.720 more about how we kind of feel about things because 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:22.839 we're not computer scientists. Were futuri ins or future ologists 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:27.640 is what we are future rangers. So um, yeah, so 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:30.200 let's let's get started. Let's let's talk about what the 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:32.360 singularity is. So, what the heck is it? You know? 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.880 I think in the popular consciousness when you mentioned the singularity, 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:38.480 they're aware that it has something to do with technology 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:41.000 and something to do with the future. But other than that, 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.920 it's just kind of this vague mental piece of stock 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.560 art where there's some wavy lines and a picture of 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:50.720 like a brain and some electricity. Right, yeah, maybe maybe 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:55.080 brains suddenly going up into disappearing into ones and zeros 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.560 and joining a giant cloud of them or something. Yeah. 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:01.920 So I think the general understanding of it is fairly vague, 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.280 and so I'd like to narrow that down and focus 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.520 it on what does this mean in the most basic 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:10.840 technological sense, And what I'd say is that it's usually 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:15.919 used to mean a time when humans develop superhuman intelligence 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:20.600 through some means, whether by creating artificial intelligence or by 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:24.359 amplifying their own intelligence, or somehow or other stumbling on 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.959 an intelligence greater than that of what humans are normally capable. 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:32.720 And often they also go further into saying that in 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:37.359 this world where we have developed superhuman intelligence. We will 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.399 we we in the present right now, will be unable 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:42.800 to kind of predict what that future is going to 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.880 look like because we won't even be able to recognize it. Yeah, 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.640 by our very nature, by our limited human intelligence, we 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.079 cannot conceive of what that future will be. It's impossible. 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:56.160 It's beyond our our what our limitations are are around us. 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.680 The idea also tends to involve not just a stasis, 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:03.720 like we reach a point of plateau of very high intelligence, 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:07.160 but it involves this idea of a vast acceleration in 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:12.120 learning and improvement, right, so educational specotification, Yeah, or a 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:16.200 Moore's law that applies directly to how smart we are, 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.400 so that we're constantly getting smarter than we were earlier. 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:21.520 And it just keeps except that instead of Moore's law, 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:24.040 which is steady you have you know, you have this 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:27.000 this uh, this doubling growth, but it's a steady doubling 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:30.720 growth in the singularity, and at least some versions of it, 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.960 it's an exponential or or lager eithmic growth to the 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.080 point where, uh, you know, it's you're not only getting smarter, 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.680 but you're getting smarter faster, right, and in that sense, 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.880 it's sort of a double impossibility for us to understand 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.720 what it will be like. It's not only smarter than 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:49.640 we can imagine now, but it's getting smarter faster than 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:54.320 we can imagine now. Right, So, there are generally speaking 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:59.120 four different agreed upon ways that this singularity could come about. 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:03.240 These are are proposed by a science fiction writer and 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:07.920 mathematician and mathematician Verne Buddy Verne, I don't I don't 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.720 actually know Verner of into it anyway. He's a he's 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:14.680 got this idea. He had this idea where he kind 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.960 of proposed four ways that we could reach this superhuman 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.320 intelligent future. And these are four pathways that are not 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:26.279 necessarily completely um isolated from each other or compartmentalized. We 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:30.400 may see some weird um combination of different paths that 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:33.520 lead us to this, assuming that the singularity is indeed 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:35.880 something we are going to hit at some point time 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.360 or another. Okay, what are they? So you've got superhuman 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:41.760 intelligent machines. This is the artificial intelligence route. I think 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.840 this is like the most classic sense that people would 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.760 imagine the most it's just saying, like developing computers that 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:52.520 are beyond human capabilities. Yeah, the idea of being that 0:04:52.560 --> 0:04:54.960 you would be able to build a computer so sophisticated 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:57.600 that it could design the next generation of computers much 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.520 better than any human could, and that next generation of 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:03.719 computers could design the next generation of computers better than 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.440 the predecessor could, and so on and so forth, and 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.560 then creating a level way beyond anything that we can 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:12.680 even understand. Right, and faster too, so that you know, 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.080 the time between generations gets to a point where there's 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:18.080 no longer you can no longer say this is generation one, 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.640 this is generation too. They'll just be meaningless to ask 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:25.000 the question because it's constantly changing. Yeah, That rapid optimization 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:29.800 is often called the intelligence explosion. Yes, uh. And so 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:33.960 next we have the idea about computer networks themselves gaining 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:37.760 some form of sentience or intelligence. Now, this is one 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:41.599 that I've heard a few different philosophers and computer scientists 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:44.559 talk about the kind of idea that with any uh, 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.920 network of information exchanging nodes that's complex enough, you could 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:52.719 have consciousness arise. So, in other words, if you had 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:58.479 enough information exchanging nodes in a complex enough system, then 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:01.360 it would end up mirroring what our brains do with 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:06.279 our neural pathways. And because uh, in the argument of 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:10.680 these people, consciousness is itself a manifestation of these physical 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:14.400 connections that our brain emergent manifestation, Yes, that that would 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:18.320 in fact emerge in these synthetic networks. One of the 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.200 things here would be to consider whether or not a 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.720 system like this could have executive control of some kind. 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:28.360 Like if you imagine the Internet today as a brain, 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.640 well that is a brain or a mind, whatever you 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:34.919 want to call it, that is both has more intellectual 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.920 capability and has more knowledge than any other thing that exists, 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:43.000 but it has no executive at the top of it. 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:47.560 There's nobody controlling the Internet. To say, now, think about this, well, 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.880 if you consider that the Internet is a crazy cat lady, 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.880 it makes perfect sense. It's the question of whether a 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.640 flock of birds really knows where it's going, or just 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.920 if each individual bird is uh doing what it does. 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:00.880 Are a school of fish, this kind of thing where 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:05.119 you see these behaviors that are are fascinating, uh, and 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.400 on the surface they start to really perplex people. It's 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:10.200 what you have to really dig down to understand how 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.240 they work. Well, next, we've got the idea of computers 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:16.200 and humans getting all buddy buddy. Okay, so this is 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:18.840 this is also ties into the stock art, right, it's 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.120 like a human brain with like a computer chip on 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.560 it and electricity shooting now a giant wind up key 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:27.400 sticking out of the humans back come from a different 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:30.160 school than you guys, So uh yeah, this is the 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.960 idea that we have computer and human intelligence merging into 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:38.800 some form of new entity. So a lot of not all, 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:43.120 but a lot of the singularity models that will talk 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:47.239 about include this idea of trans humanism, where humans evolve 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.840 beyond what we are now. We become a new species, 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:54.400 either because we've merged with machines in this way where 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.920 where we've incorporated machine intelligence into our human intelligence in 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:01.000 a in a very organic way. I guess it's kind 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:02.840 of weird to say organic, but that's kind of what 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.440 they're talking about. Or we create something that's uh like 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:10.760 a superhuman intelligent machine that then changes us so that 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:13.440 we're no longer human in the way we would think 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.559 of now. And in that way, it's easy to see 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:19.400 how some of these different pathways could overlap. Like first, 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.920 you design say just a classical AI, like a super 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:26.280 intelligent machine that's a computer, but that machine that's a 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.240 computer tells you exactly how to modify your body with 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:33.160 cybernetics that allow you to go in this hybrid state 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:36.480 to the singularity exactly. And this this is also the 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:38.600 option I think where a lot of nanobots tend to 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:40.760 come in our good old buddies nano bots. Yeah, the 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.959 idea of like, uh, sort of fortifying your body. I'll 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:45.680 make sure you have your vitamins, your minerals in your 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:51.200 nanobots because the nanobots will continuously upgrade you. That isn't 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:53.480 one of those popular ideas in science fiction. It's also 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:55.720 one that you know, we've talked a little bit about 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.160 nanotechnology in the past. We'll talk a lot more about 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:02.400 it in future episodes, but it's complicated stuff. Question, all 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.160 these involved computers. Is there a way we could achieve 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:09.600 super intelligence without computer? This is the Frankenstein method. So yes, 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:14.280 through through pure application of medicine and science, we can 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.280 create a superhuman. This is starting to sound a little 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.840 scary in a way, but yeah, we're telling bioengineering as 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.319 opposed to the rest of them. It's sky nets was 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.880 totally fine with you. Look, this one is scary. I'd 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:28.200 like to say that I, for one, welcome our robot overlords, 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.480 and I'm okay with them, all right. I have always 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:37.880 treated my room bow with respect. This is just as 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.880 a recorded account of my philosophy. M That's all I'm 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.800 gonna say now. So, the bioengineering approach is the idea 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.640 that we find out ways to maybe genetically modify humans. 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:52.880 It involves changing us on a biological level, where we 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:56.920 attain this sort of superhuman intelligence through that pathway, as 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:01.280 opposed through some form of machine intelligence. Okay, so before 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:05.000 this was a cliche on the internet, what was it? 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:08.840 Where did this idea come from? Well, you know, it's 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.520 it's an old idea like we've had. We've had people 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:16.040 talking about machines giving us the capability to to think 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:20.040 better for more than a century. So if you go 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:22.160 all the way back to the Industrial Revolution, there were 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.600 people who were saying, as machines were becoming more important 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:28.880 in human activities, they were saying, look, this is allowing 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.600 us to extend our ability to do to complete tasks, 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:36.080 and just imagine a time where those tasks aren't just 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:40.800 physical but also mental. And so it was pretty early 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.320 on that people were starting to have the very seeds 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.760 of this idea. It wasn't so formalized as the idea 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.480 of a singularity that would come later, but it was 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.360 already starting to kind of trickle into the minds of 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:55.160 people at the time. The actual term singularity, as it 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.800 relates to a point beyond which humanity as we know 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.560 it will change um was coined a nineteen fifty eight 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:04.199 by John von Neuman. Okay, oh, that's kind of interesting, 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.480 like a singularity as in like a black hole, or 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.680 as in like at the beginning of the universe, like 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.439 you can't point right right. That's that's where. Yeah, I'm 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.880 just thankful they didn't call it event horizon that that 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.440 shows that movies had enough references on the show. So 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:23.719 but yeah, so singularity as a point that we are 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:27.160 not able to see beyond simply because it's it's beyond 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:29.760 what we are able to conceive of. You don't get 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:34.040 into technological singularity until about thirty years later, and that's 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.360 when our our good buddy Verne came up with this idea. 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:42.160 He wrote an essay for Omni magazine, and he predicted 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.640 we would quote unquote soon create superhuman intelligences that would 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.920 transform our world in ways we can't anticipate because again, 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:56.400 we have human intelligence. So if you're talking superhuman by definition, 0:11:56.480 --> 0:12:01.080 we cannot conceive of that. It's it's beyond our ken. Okay, 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:04.320 where does Ray come in? Oh, you're talking Kurtswhile great 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.480 kurts Will. I mean, he's the big name in the singularity, 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.480 at least as far as I can tell. He When 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.680 you say singularity, who do you think of? Kurtswild, Like 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.120 to the point that a lot of people on some 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.600 futurists on the Internet are kind of derisive and go like, 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.360 you know, other people aside from Ray Kurtzwile are working 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.200 in this field, Thank you very much. Churtswild published a 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.840 very popular book about it in two thousand five. He 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.040 wrote The Singularity is New, or rather he got it published, 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:33.400 and that book was extremely popular. It it really brought 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.680 this idea of the singularity beyond a kind of niche audience. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.320 I mean, uh, my dad subscribed to Omni magazine, but 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.439 I'm not sure that that many other people outside of 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:48.640 the science fiction world really read that much of Omni. 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.520 So suddenly getting this into more of a kind of 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:57.240 a mainstream mindset made the whole concept explode. Yeah, this 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:01.240 took this weird nerd concept and in and had TV 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:05.360 interviews and stuff about it. He's also so charismatic. Yeah, yeah, 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.600 he's I mean, he travels the world giving talks about, 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:11.880 you know, futurism as well as other topics. And of 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:15.200 course he's had his own incredible career. I've talked about 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.520 him in the past on another show. We do text stuff, 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.280 and Kurt Swile has had a very long career in 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:25.080 uh everything from voice recognition to computer AI and it's 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.960 pretty cool stuff. So when he talked, people listened. And 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:32.200 his prediction, which as far as I know, he has 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:36.319 not amended any time recently, was that we would have 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:41.079 the singularity by twenty five. So, in other words, when 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.480 the year gets here, we will reach a time and 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:49.199 human history where it will no longer be something we recognize. Yeah. 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.559 The unfortunate thing about predictions and dates in the future 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.560 is you can't really know whether they're right until you 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.480 get there. And that's a long way off, isn't it. 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:02.240 That's deep Joe, Yes, that is true. Both of those 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:04.760 things you said are true. Uh. Yeah. He actually also 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.800 said that we would have computers that are as intelligent 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:13.640 as humans. As to me, that's that's a really tricky prediction, because, 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.080 of course, you can argue that there are many ways 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:20.160 that computers are much better at performing certain types of 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.800 tasks than humans are. I mean, it's it's undeniable. Yeah, 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:28.800 Like sorting through an incredibly long list incredibly quickly. Computers 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.640 tend to be much better than people are sequencing a genome. Yeah. 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.680 There are other things that humans are great at that 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.400 computers are not so great at, like natural language. Natural 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.360 language is a great example, or just being able to see. 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.240 Like if I show you a cup and I teach 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.840 you what a cup is, and then I show you 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:52.680 a totally different cup, that's not that's not the same design. 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.000 It's different colors, different shape, different size. You still know 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.120 what a cup is? You still oh, that's a cup. 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.920 Computers don't necessarily know that. You have to really start 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.520 building in this software. It doesn't matter how powerful the 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:07.120 computer is unless the software itself is able to also 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.200 give the computer that that processing ability. Right. This is 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.480 actually one reason that scientists and engineers are trying to 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:17.360 teach computers to work like brains in terms of the 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.440 hardware itself, because you can take a normal computer and 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.680 with good facial recognition software. Like the computer being taught 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.760 how to recognize faces and what faces are. It can 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:29.240 sort of, it can do a good job. It can 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.920 look at your face and say okay, but that's after 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.000 you've taught it. What's a lot harder is to release 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.360 a normal computer onto the Internet and say, learn what 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.200 these images are. I'm not giving you any help, right, 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.320 Associations which are something that that humans do very naturally, 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:48.320 are not something it's you have to program that, and 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:52.520 programming that is one of the more difficult tasks. Very 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.040 even even if you build the structure, it takes a 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:56.960 lot of time. This is why you know, we've talked 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.320 about the semantic web and this idea of meta data 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:01.720 and tagging this data and building ontologies. I mean, these 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:04.480 are very important so that a computer can understand how 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.680 to navigate a world that we can navigate naturally. YEA. 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.880 So even though we have agreement that computers are good 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:15.160 at some things and that humans are better at other things, 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:18.920 the thought of the people who who propose this technological 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.200 singularity is that computers are rapidly going to catch up 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:26.240 to the areas where humans are better at at those tasks, 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.440 and they're still going to be much better at the 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:31.160 other task that computers are already ideally suited to. Yeah, 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.000 perhaps the the things that the computers are good at 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.960 will allow them to rapidly become better at the things 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.840 they're not good at. Sure, but not everyone agrees with 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.280 the idea of the singularity. No, that We've got actually 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:47.960 a bunch of people on on both sides of the issue, right, right, 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.320 Let's talk about some of these main figures in in 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.080 sort of singularity thought or singularity studies and what they've 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.680 had to say about this idea because it's actually somewhat 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.960 controversial these days. So we've got Kurtswile we've already mentioned him, 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.560 he's probably one of the most visible UH thinkers and 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.760 speakers about the singularity. Yeah, and we should make clear 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.679 when we talk about these people that being sort of 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:14.720 on the pro singularity side doesn't necessarily mean you think 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:16.600 it's a good thing. Oh right. A lot of these 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.320 people actually think that it will be very negative and 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:22.760 are looking at ways of mitigating that potential. Yeah, right, 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.119 But we're talking about people who sort of think that 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.160 it's gonna happen, and think that it's going to happen 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:32.160 pretty soon, like within our lifetimes, or if not our lifetimes, 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.439 the next generation's lifetime. Okay, what about Hans Hans more 0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:38.560 of It. Well, Hans more of Ek is a Carnegie 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:41.639 Mellon Robotics Institute adjunct professor used to be anyway, and 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.639 uh he says, of course that the mind is the 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:50.240 product of physical processes in the brain. So uh, you 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.959 know this is this is again something that's argued among 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:58.679 philosophers and uh neuro specialists as well. But his his 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:03.480 premise is that if you have enough power, enough computing power, 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:07.480 and enough sophistication with software, that you would be able 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.160 to replicate what happens in our our brains and thus 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.000 give rise to a synthetic mind. Okay, this would sort 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.800 of make sense if you're saying that you're starting position 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.360 is that the brain doesn't have anything magic in it, 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:23.439 then why should it be that difficult to replicate what 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.240 it does or even do better? And on one level, 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.040 a lot of people say, yeah, that makes sense, but 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.720 but on another level, you may be trivializing exactly how 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:38.240 complicated the brain and neurological processes actually are. Well, that's 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:41.560 exactly why it seems like there might be something magic 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:44.480 in the brain. Right, imagine that there's not something magic 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:48.520 in it. Well, it's so complex physically that it seems 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:51.159 to lots of people like there is. Well, it's just 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.000 like just like the idea of any technology sophistical enough 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.880 will appear as magic. Exactly, same sort of thing here, 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:01.520 any science that's complex enough and really really and that's 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.760 sort of a testament to the fact that the brain 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:06.960 may be a lot harder to replicate than we're giving 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.359 it credit for. Right, And it's and it's really big. 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.879 I mean, don't don't let the relatively small sides of 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:14.120 our skulls fool you. There's a lot going on in there. Yeah, 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:17.080 when you're looking at how many neurons the typical brain has, 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.400 how many neural pathways, the fact that neural pathways will 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:23.439 form and then start to kind of every time you 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.240 think back on that memory, the same sort of pathway 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.600 starts lighting up, and then sometimes the pathway changes a 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:32.320 little bit, which means that our memories are not entirely reliable, 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:37.560 something that a lot of people depend heavily upon, Like lawyers, Um, So, 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:40.200 I mean, it's it's true, it's true. So, but it's 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:42.639 it's an incredibly complex system, and it works in a 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:47.120 very different way than your classic computer system. Now, one 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:49.679 thing I want to say in defensive this idea is 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:53.240 that even if the brain is very complex, if we 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.280 can simulate the brain, I can't really see any reason 0:19:56.320 --> 0:20:00.520 why a machine shouldn't go way beyond the brain. Yes, 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:03.920 the brain is limited by all kinds of external factors 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:05.960 like you know, the size of the head when you 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:08.960 need to give birth and things like that, and competing 0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.880 with other organs for developing resources. I think a lot 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:18.080 of objections to this are not based on it's impossible. 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:21.240 I think most people who object to the idea of 0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:24.200 of simulating the brain aren't saying this is something that's 0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:26.439 never going to happen. They're saying this is something that 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:28.680 if it happens, it's going to happen a really long 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:33.520 time from now. Yeah, the more optimistic neuroscience people that 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:36.840 I've seen talk about this have estimated at least a 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:40.560 hundred years, like absolutely crazy, minimum of I don't even 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:43.520 understand what's happening anymore, is a hundred years. Because if 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:45.479 you even look at IBM S Watson, which is one 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:48.720 of the great examples of artificial intelligence, that we can 0:20:48.720 --> 0:20:51.280 talk about today. You know, that's the IBM computer that 0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:55.040 went on Jeopardy defeated the two former Jeopardy champions. Seem 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:58.000 to be really, really smart. It was relying on thousands 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.120 of processors running at an incre dorble speed in order 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:04.280 for it to even compete at that level. And it 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:07.639 was it was a fairly specific, uh kind of task. 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.719 I mean, yeah, you had you had the wonderful idea 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.280 of this is going to encompass all human knowledge because 0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:15.800 you never know what the the categories are going to be. 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.760 But it still was specifically to compete at Jeopardy, not 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:23.600 to hold a conversation and try and pass the Turing 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.040 test for example. Um, if for us to have a 0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.879 fully functioning mind, not just a brain, but a mind, 0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:33.040 and looks like it's going to have to be even 0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:36.159 more complicated than what Watson was. And it's not just 0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:38.200 the hardware that we have to worry about again, it's 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:41.960 the software. If the software isn't sophisticate enough in uh, 0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:45.399 in the job of simulating the pathways that are in 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:50.000 the brain, you can't really hope to simulate an organic mind. 0:21:50.080 --> 0:21:52.040 You might be able to come across and create some 0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.159 other form of mind that we have never encountered. I mean, 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:58.159 that's still a possibility, and it's it's fascinating and scary 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:00.280 all at the same time. But it's not going to 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:02.480 be the same as an organic mind unless you're able 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:07.479 to really create an insanely sophisticated piece of software running 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:12.520 on an equally insane sophisticated piece of hardware. So anyway, 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.800 that's my own personal objection. So I think you already 0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:18.720 see where my mind goes. But next we have a 0:22:18.880 --> 0:22:20.920 we have Verned again. We have our science fiction author 0:22:20.920 --> 0:22:24.399 and mathematician um and he said that he would be 0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:29.240 surprised if the Singularity doesn't show its head around twenty thirty. 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:33.240 So he's even more aggressive in his timeline than Kurtswile is. 0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:36.000 That is sixteen years away. It's hard to imagine it 0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:38.639 was only a couple of years ago that someone talked 0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.160 to him and asked him again, like do you want 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:42.840 to revise that? And he says, I stand by it. 0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:45.840