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Speaker 1: It's that time, time, time, time, Luck and Load. Michael

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Speaker 1: Vari Show is on the air.

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Speaker 2: Baseball legend Pete Rose has passed away. Rose was one

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Speaker 2: of the greatest hitters in baseball history and holds a

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Speaker 2: Major League Baseball record for all time hits.

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Speaker 3: But Pete Rose never made.

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Speaker 2: It into the Baseball Hall of Fame because he was

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Speaker 2: banned for life for betting on games while manager of

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Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Reds. Rose later admitted to betting on his

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Speaker 2: own team's games, but said he never threw a game

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Speaker 2: and never bet against his own team. Rose played in

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Speaker 2: the majors for twenty four years. Pete Rose was eighty

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Speaker 2: three years old.

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Speaker 4: And here comes the Ain't attraction and they're on their feet.

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Speaker 4: Rose walking toward the play the most famous number fourteen

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Speaker 4: in a history of this game, and trying to make

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Speaker 4: history right here in.

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Speaker 3: The first inning tonight.

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Speaker 4: He levels about a couple of times, shall kicks and

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Speaker 4: he fires Rose White Class death number forty one ninety two.

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Speaker 4: They live drives single into left center field, a clean base.

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Speaker 4: Enter is pandemonium. I'm here at Riverfront Stadiu. The fire

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Speaker 4: works exploding over a head. The six and eighty dugout

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Speaker 4: has emptied. Lea Blas continues unabated, Rose completely encircled by

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Speaker 4: his teammates at first page Joe. Quite an emotional scene.

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Speaker 4: Here's the ballpark.

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Speaker 5: Well, at least the stupid lifetime band can be over now.

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Speaker 3: Because Pete Rose is no more.

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Speaker 5: And his body of work deserves to be honored in

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Speaker 5: the Hall of Fame. He played the game as well

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Speaker 5: as anyone ever played the game. He's arguably the greatest

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Speaker 5: player of all time. He's got some statistics to back

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Speaker 5: it up. Hits games played, seventeen time All Star, five

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Speaker 5: position goal glove, five position All Star, two goal gloves.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 5: First base, third base, second base, left field, right field,

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Speaker 5: that level of flexibility, versatility. Yeah, he made a mistake

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Speaker 5: and he more than paid for it. He more than

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Speaker 5: paid for it. If every single person that's passed judgment

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Speaker 5: on him within professional baseball can honestly look themselves in

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Speaker 5: the mirror and say that was fair, and if everything

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Speaker 5: they had ever done was laid bare, if they'd still

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Speaker 5: be in the position they are. Remember when Don Sterling

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Speaker 5: was a story, the owner of the Clippers, Don Sterling,

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Speaker 5: he was riding high, he had it all and then boom,

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Speaker 5: that woman recorded the things he said about he didn't

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Speaker 5: want his mistress to sleep with the black basketball players

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Speaker 5: on his team.

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Speaker 3: Because they'd have big winners.

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Speaker 5: Remember that, and then all I mean he had to

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Speaker 5: dump the team and brought shame on his family, the

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Speaker 5: whole deal overnight.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of people I believe in punishment.

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Speaker 3: I do. I think that's fair.

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Speaker 5: But I also believe sometimes you've got to be man

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Speaker 5: enough to stand up and say, you know what, I'm

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Speaker 5: going to be the person that tells you if Pete

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Speaker 5: paid and more than enough, Pete gave a lot to

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Speaker 5: the game, he can't have gambling. And so today, throughout

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Speaker 5: the course of the day and into the night, and

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Speaker 5: for many days to come, sports shows across the country

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Speaker 5: on television and radio will debate the legacy of Pete

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Speaker 5: Rose and the fact that he gambled on baseball, and

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Speaker 5: the number one sponsor for every one of those shows.

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Speaker 3: Will be gambling sites.

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Speaker 5: Oh the hypocrisy, Oh the irony, Oh the irony of

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Speaker 5: it all.

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Speaker 3: What a day.

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Speaker 5: We've got a lot to talk about attacks on Israel.

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Speaker 5: As you know, we don't do hardly ever live news

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Speaker 5: coverage Hannity does. It's a different show. Hannity does a

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Speaker 5: show where he will blow through commercials and he will

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Speaker 5: focus on news of the day.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 5: It makes program directors crazy because they still think we're

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Speaker 5: in the news business.

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Speaker 3: We're not. We're in the opinion business.

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Speaker 5: And I don't offer opinions on things as they're happening

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Speaker 5: because often I don't have all the facts.

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Speaker 3: I'm trusting someone else.

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Speaker 5: So in time, we will address these attacks on Israel

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Speaker 5: by Iran. We will address a number of things related

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Speaker 5: to that. Just know that the world is in peril,

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Speaker 5: and the world, not just America, needs Donald Trump to

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Speaker 5: be our president right now because a strong America makes

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Speaker 5: for a more secure world. A strong America does not

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Speaker 5: mean the Bush family America. It does not mean the

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Speaker 5: warmongering of the Democrats America.

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Speaker 3: Nor does it mean a week.

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Speaker 5: America that invites rogue nations to do what Iran is

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Speaker 5: currently doing. We need an America with a strong president

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Speaker 5: who is not eager to go to war, but understands

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Speaker 5: the bullies of the world. They told us Trump would

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Speaker 5: take us into World War three. He didn't. In fact,

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Speaker 5: he made us safer. He got us out of Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: But even even bumbling Biden had to bungle that as well,

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Speaker 5: although we now know that it was Kamala Harris, she

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Speaker 5: was the last one in the room. So now we've

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Speaker 5: got the longshoreman on strike, which means the supply chain

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Speaker 5: is going to be disrupted, which means your life, every

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Speaker 5: single person's life is going to be disrupted as a

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Speaker 5: result of this, and it's going to get worse and

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Speaker 5: worse the longer this goes. So with all of these

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Speaker 5: things going on in the world, let's check in on

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Speaker 5: what Donald Trump is doing on the night of this

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Speaker 5: the vice presidential debate versus what the president. Remember Joe

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Speaker 5: Biden still our president, and Kamala Harris, who will be

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Speaker 5: president before the election, who wants to be president. Let's

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Speaker 5: compare and contrast what they're all doing. Scott Jennings, a

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Speaker 5: reasonable voice on CNN.

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Speaker 6: I think the optics of this over the weekend for

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Speaker 6: Biden Harris have been pretty poor. In North Carolina is underwater.

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Speaker 6: These people are devastated and struggling. But you've got Biden

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Speaker 6: at the beach and then saying, what do you want

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Speaker 6: from me? I got on the phone while I was

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Speaker 6: at the beach, and you've got Harris out raising money

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Speaker 6: on the campaign and then taking a photo on a plane.

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Speaker 3: I remember George W.

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Speaker 6: Bush was pilloried for having a photo taken from Air

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Speaker 6: Force one.

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Speaker 3: She's got a photo on a plane and.

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Speaker 6: The airphones don't appear to be connected to the phone,

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Speaker 6: and the paper looks like it's blank, so it looked

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Speaker 6: like a stage sort of thing.

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Speaker 3: I thought the optics for them were very bad. That's

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Speaker 3: exactly right. The nation and the world is watching.

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Speaker 5: The world is watching when Zelensky comes to American soil

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Speaker 5: and Biden and Harris fly him to Pennsylvania to campaign

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Speaker 5: for them and then hand him eight billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: The world is watching.

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Speaker 5: While several of our states and many of our people,

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Speaker 5: their lives have been destroyed, many of their lives have

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Speaker 5: been lost, and our government opens up our checkbook, our checkbook,

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Speaker 5: that's our money, and hands it to foreign countries as

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Speaker 5: our people are dying, As our people are dying. Biden

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Speaker 5: tried to shut down Starling, took him away from the

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Speaker 5: US government, and now FEMA has had to use Starling,

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Speaker 5: and Elon said, here helps the people. Biden is such

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Speaker 5: a fool, and so is Kamala Harris. We got a

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Speaker 5: great show for you to know.

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden became mentally impaired with Michael Berry. Tamala was

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Speaker 3: born that way.

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Speaker 5: You run leading air raids over Israel. The destruction of

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Speaker 5: Israel is the only thing that unites the Arab world.

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Speaker 5: It's a really sad, sad situation. The American left will

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Speaker 5: try to make excuses for this, but the reality is,

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Speaker 5: you can wipe Israel off the map, you can wipe

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Speaker 5: America off the map, you can wipe Western civilization off

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Speaker 5: the map. The people of the Middle East would find

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Speaker 5: something else to be angry about.

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Speaker 3: Because.

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Speaker 5: The cult that has taken hold is an angry, vicious, bitter,

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Speaker 5: vengeful cult. The cruelty and brutality to women is not

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Speaker 5: our fault. We didn't choose that. And too many Americans

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Speaker 5: have this false relativism and this naive embrace that everyone

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Speaker 5: in the world is just like we are. They're not

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Speaker 5: many cultures in the world, and cultures change over time. Cultures,

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Speaker 5: as with nations, as with the followers of religions, change

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Speaker 5: over time. And we are in a very very dark time.

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Speaker 3: For the Middle East.

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Speaker 5: When you look at the fall of Iran in seventy

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Speaker 5: nine and the resulting horror from Comani to today and

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Speaker 5: the fundamentalism of that country and how that has affected

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Speaker 5: not just the region but the world. By the way,

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Speaker 5: there are still seven Americans being held hostage. In six days,

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Speaker 5: they would have been held hostage for a year. Seven

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Speaker 5: Americans still being held hostage by Hamas Hamas Hezbollah directly funded,

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Speaker 5: organized and run by Iran.

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Speaker 3: It is their terror arm it is a terror state.

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Speaker 5: And yet Obama and now Biden Harris have made sure

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Speaker 5: they have the money to do everything they want to

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Speaker 5: do to terrorize Israelis and Americans. And make no mistake,

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Speaker 5: it's Americans as well. It is Americans as well. Let's

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Speaker 5: turn our attention to the longshoreman strike. Yes, the vice

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Speaker 5: presidential debate will be tonight, that will be the focus

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Speaker 5: of much of our show tomorrow, So I don't see

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Speaker 5: a need to talk much about it tonight.

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Speaker 3: And I think.

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Speaker 5: That this long shoreman strike, if this drags on, pretends

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Speaker 5: to be.

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Speaker 3: A lot bigger deal than perhaps is.

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Speaker 5: It's getting the attention of You're talking about ports from

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Speaker 5: Maine to Texas being shut down, and you're talking about

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Speaker 5: a cost estimated to be four to four and a

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Speaker 5: half billion dollars a day.

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Speaker 3: The longshoreman union wants.

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Speaker 5: They want to be paid more, a lot more, and

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Speaker 5: they don't want automation. They don't want cranes, gates, trucks.

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Speaker 5: They want everything to be done by hand. How do

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Speaker 5: you think that's going to turn out? So first time

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Speaker 5: the union's been on strike since nineteen seventy seven.

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Speaker 3: All this is going on.

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Speaker 5: Forty five thousand workers from three dozen ports, a potential

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Speaker 5: cost approaching five billion dollars a day, eighty five thousand

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Speaker 5: ISLA union members, and the Secretary of Commerce for Joe

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Speaker 5: Biden says, yeah, I don't really care.

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Speaker 6: Where have you been kind of focused on hearing on

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Speaker 6: what would happen if the strikers, let's say longer than

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Speaker 6: a week.

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Speaker 3: Again, I have not been very focused on that. Now.

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Speaker 5: Harold Daggett, who is the president of the Longshortman's Union, Harold.

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Speaker 3: Daggett had some things to say.

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Speaker 5: He's basically threatening you, America that unless they get paid

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Speaker 5: a whole lot more money and you refuse to use automation,

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Speaker 5: which the rest of the world is doing. He don't

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Speaker 5: want these computers and cell phones. He don't want automation

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Speaker 5: to replace human being. Do you know why they want

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Speaker 5: automation to replace human beings. Because you go on strike,

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Speaker 5: because you sexually harassed, because they get in fights, because

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Speaker 5: they sue you.

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Speaker 3: The trend is toward automation.

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Speaker 5: You can't bully people into not automating while you're sitting

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Speaker 5: on your cell phone, while you're driving in your car.

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Speaker 5: Everything you do is automation that replaces something else. You

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Speaker 5: can be mad about that, and you can be like

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Speaker 5: me and be luddite, but the reality is you're going

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Speaker 5: to lose that war. Now, with all that in mind,

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Speaker 5: listen to the president of the union, who was handpicked

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Speaker 5: by the mob.

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Speaker 3: I'm told, but.

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Speaker 7: Today's world, it's changing into the future.

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Speaker 3: They're not making millions no more.

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Speaker 7: They're making billions, and they're spending it fast as they

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Speaker 7: make it. I want a piece of half of my men,

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Speaker 7: because when they made their most money was during COVIC,

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Speaker 7: when my men had to go to work on those

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Speaker 7: piers every single day, when everybody stayed home and went

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Speaker 7: to work, not my men.

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Speaker 3: They died out there with the virus. We all got

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Speaker 3: sick with the virus.

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Speaker 7: We kept them going from Canada to main A, Texas,

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Speaker 7: Great Legs, Puerto Rico. Now the Bahamas, everybody went to

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Speaker 7: work during COVID, nobody stayed home. Well, I want to

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Speaker 7: be compensated for that. Now, I'm not asking for the world.

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Speaker 7: They know what I want. They know what they want,

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Speaker 7: and if they don't, no, then I have to go

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Speaker 7: into the streets and we have to fight for what

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Speaker 7: we rightfully deserve.

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Speaker 3: These people today don't know what the shrike is.

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Speaker 7: Right when my men hit the streets from Maine to Texas,

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Speaker 7: every single port a lockdown.

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Speaker 3: You know what's going to happen, I'll tell you.

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Speaker 7: First week, be all over the news every nine boom boom.

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Speaker 7: Second week, guys who sell cars can't sell cars because

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Speaker 7: the cars ain't coming in off the ships. They get

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Speaker 7: laid off. Third week, malls are closing down. They can't

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Speaker 7: get the goods from China. They can't sell clothes. They

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Speaker 7: can't do this. Everything in the United States comes on

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Speaker 7: a ship. They go out of business. Construction workers get

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Speaker 7: laid off because the materials aren't coming in.

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Speaker 3: The steel's not coming in, the lumber's not coming in.

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Speaker 3: They lose their job.

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Speaker 7: Everybody's hating the long Showman now because now they realize

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Speaker 7: how important our jobs are. Now I have the president

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Speaker 7: screaming at me. I'm putting a TAF Holly on you

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Speaker 7: go ahead. Taf Holly means I have to go back

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Speaker 7: to work for ninety days after cool you off.

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Speaker 3: Period.

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Speaker 7: Do you think when I go back for ninety days,

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Speaker 7: those men are going to go to work on that pier.

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Speaker 7: It's going to cost the money, the company's money to

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Speaker 7: pay their salaries. Well, they go one from thirty moves

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Speaker 7: an now maybe they eight. They're gonna be like this,

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Speaker 7: who's gonna win here? In the long run, You're better

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Speaker 7: off sitting down and let's get a contract and let's

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Speaker 7: move on with this world. And could today's world. I'll

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Speaker 7: cripple you. I will cripple you. And you have no

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Speaker 7: idea what that means. Nobody does. I support workers.

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Speaker 5: Being safe in their workplace, being paid what they're promised,

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Speaker 5: not what they threaten.

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Speaker 3: I do.

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Speaker 5: I don't support threats on the American people. I know

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Speaker 5: some people do. I know for some people, especially from

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Speaker 5: union families. I've got friends and they think this is

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Speaker 5: cool and it's tough and mafia and not me.

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Speaker 3: I don't go for that. You do to be great.

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Speaker 3: We'll have a logistics expert named Ross Kennedy on this

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Speaker 3: moment to talk about it.

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Speaker 5: Just scene scared to death of you, and they remain

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Speaker 5: scared to death of Michael Show.

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Speaker 3: You're not going anywhere even if Trump does, You're not.

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Speaker 5: Since we're talking about ports, and since we're talking about

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Speaker 5: logistics and the supply chain and things that we never

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Speaker 5: talk about until they go down and then you get

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Speaker 5: a long shoreman's strike and now you can't get the

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Speaker 5: products you need to do business to survive.

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Speaker 3: Ross Kennedy is the founder of.

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Speaker 5: Fortis Analysis, a US based logistics and supply chain advisory team,

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Speaker 5: and as good an expert as you're going to find

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Speaker 5: on the subject.

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Speaker 3: Ross, thanks for making time for us. Really appreciated.

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Speaker 8: Michael, Thank you, sir.

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Speaker 5: So I know you're a busy man today because in

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Speaker 5: talking to my friend Jessic Kelly, he had said, make

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Speaker 5: sure you get Ross on because I'm talking to him

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Speaker 5: as well. Let's talk about what happens short term and

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Speaker 5: long term with this long shoreman's strike and how this

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Speaker 5: affects the average person.

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, so you know, most people have any extent are

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Speaker 8: aware at all of what a long shortman is, what

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Speaker 8: supports really do the function in our economy, because the

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Speaker 8: United States is heavily consumptive economy, we import a lot

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Speaker 8: more than we export in terms of physical things. You know,

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Speaker 8: we import components, auto parts, uh, you know, commercial goods

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Speaker 8: for the shelves. We import a lot more food than

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Speaker 8: people realize. We export big heavy things, you know that

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Speaker 8: the energy products and food and minerals and large equipment.

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Speaker 8: The because that balance has weighted so heavily towards containerized goods,

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Speaker 8: which is the primary mode of transportation that the longshore

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Speaker 8: and uh, you know strike impacts at the ports. There

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Speaker 8: it radiates up, down and outwards, you know, for the

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Speaker 8: US economy. And this specific situation is very I would

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Speaker 8: use the word interesting from an academic standpoint. However, interesting

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Speaker 8: in this case means it is a loaded situation. Big picture,

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Speaker 8: a lot of pain, right, so big picture. The longshoreman

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Speaker 8: strikes with the International Longshoreman's Association. They are one of

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Speaker 8: two longshoreman union that represents the workers that work inside

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Speaker 8: of ports. You know, the historical term of longshoreman continues

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Speaker 8: to apply.

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Speaker 3: The roles are different.

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Speaker 8: But about forty percent of the ports in the US,

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Speaker 8: you know, stretching from there's actually some ports on the

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Speaker 8: Great Lakes, you know, the Chicago Cleveland that are impacted

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Speaker 8: by this, But generally speaking, you're talking about the primary

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Speaker 8: ocean ports that kind of run the eastern seaboard of

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Speaker 8: the US down to Florida and then the Gulf Coast

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Speaker 8: seaboard over to Houston.

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Speaker 3: About thirty five.

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Speaker 8: Ports are are going to be heavily impacted by this.

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Speaker 8: And what has happened right now is out of twelve

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Speaker 8: oh one an agreement between the US Maritime Association, which

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Speaker 8: represents it's the collective bargaining body of the ports terminals

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Speaker 8: operators and the ship owners or the shipping companies Mayor's

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Speaker 8: MSc know being some big famous ones as well as

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Speaker 8: the Chinese company Costco are kind of in this multi

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Speaker 8: year gridlock with the with the Ila long shortman it's

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Speaker 8: about forty five thousand of their eighty thousand employees are

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Speaker 8: impacted by the striking decision over really two things, wages

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Speaker 8: and automation. The longshoremen are paid about thirty to forty

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Speaker 8: percent less on the East Coast and Golf Coast than

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Speaker 8: their counterparts and the ILWU out on the West Coast

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Speaker 8: and up in Canada, and so wages is number one.

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Speaker 8: You know, they haven't had a pay increase in about

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Speaker 8: a decade.

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Speaker 3: You know, effectively, what thing what it is? Are we

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Speaker 3: what are we talking about? Average?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, average salary for the forty five thousand workers is

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Speaker 8: about eighty one thousand. It's about one hundred and seventeen

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Speaker 8: thousand for the long shoreman out on the West coast.

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Speaker 8: That's not including things like overtime benefits, very substantial pensions.

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Speaker 8: But about eighty to eighty one thousand is the average wage.

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Speaker 8: Highest salary within you know, within the organizations, can be

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Speaker 8: the president Howard Daggett, who is He's at about seven

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Speaker 8: to a little over seven hundred thousand, but the ground

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Speaker 8: the docks is doing eighty eighty one one hundred thousand,

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Speaker 8: depending on seniority.

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Speaker 3: So wages is the first issue.

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Speaker 8: Number two is and it's really the existential sticking point

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Speaker 8: because the USMAX the ship owners imports, would you know,

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Speaker 8: pretty happily bend on wages if that was the only issue.

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Speaker 8: Is this issue of automation imports, meaning utilizing automated machine

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Speaker 8: or remotely operated cranes to stow and destow the vessels,

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Speaker 8: using automated trolleys to move containers around on the port,

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Speaker 8: automated equipment to do stacking of the containers and positioning.

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Speaker 8: All of those are things that are currently done manually

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Speaker 8: at most ports by humans within the isla's footprint. The

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Speaker 8: port of Norfolk stands out as an interesting example. Its

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Speaker 8: largest container terminal VI or actually it's the ig and

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Speaker 8: AW Virginia International Gateway, is a semi automated port, meaning

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Speaker 8: some of the work done inside the port facility is

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Speaker 8: actually already automated. And what we've seen in Norfolk is

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Speaker 8: a substantial increase in efficiency, reduction in costs to the

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Speaker 8: downstream individual, the import of the exporter that's actually paying

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Speaker 8: the bill for all of this, relative to a lot

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Speaker 8: of the other ports, where everything is still human human operated,

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Speaker 8: and automation is existential as a threat.

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Speaker 3: To the longshoreman.

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Speaker 8: You're talking about eighty thousand members who their one value

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Speaker 8: to US logistics and supply chains at the ports is

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Speaker 8: the human ability to move a container piece of cargo

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Speaker 8: around in time and space. Most major ports in the world,

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Speaker 8: number of the terminals in Qingdao, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzen

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Speaker 8: in China, Jakarta and Indonesia, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp in Europe,

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Speaker 8: a lot of these ports have gone fully automated or

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Speaker 8: semi automated at bare minimum, and they are far more efficient.

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Speaker 8: And so the narrative works against the longshoreman of hey,

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Speaker 8: we want to do good for the economy, keep American

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Speaker 8: workers employed. In this particular case, because of the complexity

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Speaker 8: of handling very large, heavy things, the machines tend to

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Speaker 8: do it better. So that's the real sticking point here

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Speaker 8: for the Union is it's that if they've bend it

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Speaker 8: all in automation, then you're talking about a very short

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Speaker 8: lifespan relative to the one hundred and thirty year existence

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Speaker 8: of the organization.

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Speaker 3: But ross is that realistic?

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Speaker 5: I mean, I mean, could the horse buggy operator really

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Speaker 5: say we're not going to run the horse buggies.

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Speaker 3: If y'all are going to buy cars.

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Speaker 5: The cars are coming, right, automation's coming, electricity was coming,

400
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Speaker 5: computers were coming. Realistically saying we demand that we get

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Speaker 5: to work and perform these tasks rather than automation.

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Speaker 3: And to prove that we get to do it, we're

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Speaker 3: going to not do it.

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Speaker 5: I just think that this is I think it's just

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Speaker 5: sisiphy and task you're pushing this thing up here. It's coming,

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00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 5: automation's coming, cost savings are coming more. With Bross Kennedy,

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Speaker 5: he is our global shipping expert.

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Speaker 3: With the long shoreman striker products, we are going to supporter.

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Speaker 3: We've been to supporter. You haven't been ship with the

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Speaker 3: modicle Varia, and I haven't been to Europe.

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Speaker 5: Ross Kennedy is an expert in supply chains and in

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Speaker 5: shipping and in logistics. With the longshoreman's strike, he is

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Speaker 5: our guest to talk about what this means for the workers,

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Speaker 5: the companies that hire them, and at the end of

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Speaker 5: the day, this is going to affect every single American.

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Speaker 5: It's one of the few things that does even more

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Speaker 5: than an air traffic controller strike, because not everybody flies.

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Speaker 5: Everybody uses products that travel internationally. And that's not just

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Speaker 5: the Chinese products coming in here. That's our products being

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Speaker 5: exported out of there as well. You were talking about

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Speaker 5: the international companies that control a lot of the trade

422
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Speaker 5: that's bringing in products that be European or Asian, and

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Speaker 5: they have embraced automation at their other ports and they're

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Speaker 5: simply not going to pay Americans what they considered to

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Speaker 5: be wages that could be wiped out because they don't

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Speaker 5: feel like they need to, and the American consumer would

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Speaker 5: pay more as a result of it. And maybe some

428
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Speaker 5: people say, hey, I'll pay more for the product so

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Speaker 5: the longshoremen can make their wages.

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Speaker 3: But I think they're lying.

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Speaker 5: I think most people buy cheap Chinese products no matter

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Speaker 5: what they say. And walmart't proved that people weren't willing

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Speaker 5: to live up to what they promised. But let's talk

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Speaker 5: about who who those players are on that side of

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Speaker 5: this transaction ross.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely so, as far as the you know, American

437
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 8: interfaces if you will, and an international logistics movement or

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Speaker 8: supply chain, you know what we call the shipment life cycle.

439
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 8: Your railroads are are US or Canadian owns. You have

440
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Speaker 8: two Class one carriers out of Canada, one of which

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Speaker 8: has actually merged with an American carrier in last year.

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Speaker 8: But you're talking about North American companies that they you know, they.

443
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:08,959
Speaker 3: Employ people here, they do all of that.

444
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 8: You also have all of the many, many, many American

445
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 8: owned and operated drage companies, strage just being the industry

446
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 8: term of art for trucking a container rather than you know,

447
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 8: a fifty three foot drive hand or something, but the

448
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 8: vast majority of shipowners and the vast majority of terminals

449
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 8: that actually you know, receive the.

450
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 3: Cargo in prep it for movement.

451
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 8: Basically everything at the water's edge is ultimately a foreign

452
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 8: company or a country that is the beneficiary of that.

453
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 8: Drilling down the impact of these relatively uncharitable entities that

454
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 8: really are jockeying for control over what they perceived to

455
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 8: be the future of maritime commerce in the US. Everything

456
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 8: is said, Michael, ninety percent of everything moves on water,

457
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 8: both legal goods and illegal goods. The impact to the

458
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 8: average American consumer, particularly those who work for manufacturers that

459
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 8: source their components overseas, when when it comes down to it,

460
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 8: it's anywhere from one to five billion dollars per day

461
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 8: impact to the US economy from this particular strike. If

462
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 8: both unions had been on strike at the same time,

463
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 8: you would be talking about a complete shutdown of the

464
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 8: American economy. The nature though, because it's this very interconnected,

465
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 8: difficult way of moving things to and from the rest

466
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 8: of the world, a day will take a week to

467
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 8: recover normal operational throughput for the ports. A seven days

468
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 8: strike would take about three months. It's an exponential thing.

469
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 8: That was why in the early days of COVID, I

470
00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 8: was one of the few voices you know, talking to

471
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 8: the Trump administration directly saying, Hey, the first thing you

472
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 8: need to do is ease the bottleneck, ease the constraints,

473
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 8: and build some excess flex into the system so that

474
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 8: the ports don't get congested because they can't really hold

475
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 8: a lot and there's not a lot of places for those

476
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 8: containers to go when the ships aren't turning and they're

477
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 8: sitting out in the water. As we famously saw during

478
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 8: the peak of the COVID supply chain disruption, over one

479
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 8: hundred ships at anchor off the west coast of the US.

480
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 8: All of this is a compounding effect that downstream of

481
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 8: that are American employees and consumers. If you work at

482
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 8: an auto manufacturer, if you work for an energy company,

483
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 8: if you work for a power utility, if you work

484
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 8: for a food manufacturer, anything that relies on machines, equipment, parts,

485
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 8: or components that come from overseas, there is a long

486
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 8: tail on this for that business that employs these American workers.

487
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 8: During COVID, hundreds of commpanies went out of business that

488
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 8: were in some way pretty tidally locked to global supply

489
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 8: chain and global logistics sourcing operations, and of those that

490
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 8: didn't go out of business, the rest were either merged

491
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 8: or acquired for a dime or a quarter on the

492
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 8: dollar the value of the company because they didn't have

493
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 8: the cash flow to absorb such a supply chain crunch.

494
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 8: And there's very few options. If you're fortunate enough to

495
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 8: need components that can be packaged up relatively small and

496
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 8: put on air freight, you're still paying anywhere from five

497
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 8: to ten x on a per kilogram of weight basis

498
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 8: of that thing to be flown via air versus brought

499
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 8: in a container.

500
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: Well, it's incredible.

501
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 5: I've watched these things on YouTube, and I think this

502
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 5: is one of those that YouTube has been really good

503
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 5: at is taking smart guys like you and giving you

504
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 5: a platform where you can explain things to us folks

505
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 5: that are not experts in whatever your area is, whether

506
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 5: it's engines or aviation, or bitcoin or crypto or in

507
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 5: this case, international shipping. Is fascinating to me to see

508
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 5: the many hands and now clause that touch a product

509
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 5: from the time it starts as a raw material to

510
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 5: the time it ends up on my table or in

511
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 5: my bathroom.

512
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 3: It's really fascinating.

513
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 5: I mean it's staggering to me and you can't imagine

514
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 5: how many people do that. Let me ask you, because

515
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 5: I have two minutes left, I want to make sure

516
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 5: we get to this. How does this thing play out?

517
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 5: Ross Kennedy. I think what's.

518
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 8: Most likely to happen is that you're going to see

519
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 8: a resolution that everybody is unhappy with. And I've heard

520
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 8: it paraphrase that that's the definition of a good compromise,

521
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 8: is that everybody walks away with an agreement that makes

522
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 8: them unhappy. In this particular case, I'm fairly confident the

523
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 8: longshom and will get everything they want on the wages.

524
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 8: They will have to bend a little bit on the

525
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 8: issue of automation, because the long this goes on, the

526
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 8: more likely the public is to blame the long short

527
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 8: because it's easier to personify an attack on us, you know,

528
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 8: a group of people versus a group of companies. The

529
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 8: likeliest output from the automation side is is that there

530
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 8: will be a phased in, stepped in approach to automation. Okay,

531
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 8: over five years, you know, we'll bring these components in

532
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 8: over ten years, we'll bring these components in.

533
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 3: First ride of refusal.

534
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 8: Goes to training and employment of our people to remotely

535
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 8: operate and maintain these pieces of equipment, and anybody else

536
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 8: who can't get on board with that gets a super

537
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 8: fat buyout.

538
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: I think that's.

539
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 8: What's most likely to happen, is going to be very

540
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 8: large lucrative payouts for the members that are impacted by

541
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 8: automation in five or ten years, and not in exchange

542
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 8: for higher wages and more secure benefits. Now, that's probably

543
00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 8: what's likely to happen. The one dog not barking in

544
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 8: most circles is the invocation of path partly, which was

545
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 8: last used by President Reagan to force the air traffic

546
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 8: controllers back to work for eighty days so that a

547
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 8: negotiation could be agreed upon. But that requires some strength

548
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 8: of character for a chief executive of the country to

549
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 8: invoke that. I certainly don't see the expertise or commitment

550
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 8: to understanding this issue amongst anybody who are the key

551
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 8: stakeholders in this administration for the effort. So it will

552
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 8: be worked out. It will take a few more days,

553
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 8: I think, But what's likely to happen is is, yes,

554
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 8: they will get their longsterom will get their wage increases,

555
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 8: they will get significant buyouts and early retirement, and you'll

556
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 8: see additional automation begin implement in the next five years

557
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 8: or so. In the impacted ports,