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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to another

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Speaker 1: episode of The Buck Sexton Show, The Deep Dives the

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Speaker 1: long Form. Appreciate all the comments you have about this

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Speaker 1: format and how you're enjoying it. And it's great for

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Speaker 1: me too, because now I get to sit and really

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Speaker 1: enjoy the brilliance and the insights of so many guests

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Speaker 1: without a commercial break jumping in from radio and limited

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Speaker 1: to eight to ten minutes at a time. We got

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Speaker 1: plenty of time with our folks, and we're gonna need

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Speaker 1: it this week for sure. Today we've got our friend

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Speaker 1: Bridge Kolby with us. He has a principle at the

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Speaker 1: Marathon Initiative. He served as the lead official in the

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Speaker 1: development of the twenty eighteen Natural Defense Strategy, which shifted

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Speaker 1: the Pentagon's focus to China, and is the author of

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Speaker 1: a fantastic book, Strategy of Denial American Defense in an

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Speaker 1: Age of Great Power Conflict. Walster Journal said one of

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Speaker 1: the top ten books of twenty twenty one. Mister Bridge

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Speaker 1: ol Be, who I have also known fun fact because

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Speaker 1: we didn't get talk with this in radio. Bridge and

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Speaker 1: I used to do uh shots of quervox at the

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Speaker 1: same bars in DC back when I was a cub

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Speaker 1: CIA analyst and Bridge was, where were you in Yale

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Speaker 1: law school at the time. You're doing something something like that.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, so something, uh, you know, one job

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Speaker 1: or another. But gosh, you've you've you've you've sold us

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Speaker 1: out here back So I know now people know Bridge

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Speaker 1: and I go go way back. We're talking like we're

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Speaker 1: like twenty years and now then we're kind of old.

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Speaker 1: We're kind o looking good. I feel like we're looking

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Speaker 1: at our end could be worse, right, Yeah, Look, let's

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Speaker 1: be honest. We kind of look like racquetball buddies or something.

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Speaker 1: So you know, it makes sense that we go way

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Speaker 1: back here. You know we were we were doubles partners

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Speaker 1: on the grass sports. So Bridge, we're going to turn out.

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Speaker 1: We'll go back to some fun stuff toward the end here.

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Speaker 1: But I gotta start with this. Um. Look, I never

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Speaker 1: want to make uh, I don't. I'm not trying to

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Speaker 1: make analysts fight with other analysts about these issues, did

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Speaker 1: you he the I think Peter Zihon on the Rogan.

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Speaker 1: By any chance, you know this guy who went on Rogan,

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Speaker 1: I can give you a summary of what he says

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Speaker 1: because he was a much sense but yeah, yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: So it's basically China's gonna collapse. Ideeah, China's gonna collapse.

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Speaker 1: China's super weak. China imports all like not all, but

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Speaker 1: you know, basically all of its food inputs politically so

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Speaker 1: sclerotic that she can't get anything done. The population bomb

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Speaker 1: is going to be there, undoing, and it's all gonna

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Speaker 1: fall apart within the next ten years in China. That's

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Speaker 1: the basic thesis. I just want to give that to

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Speaker 1: you to give your sense of because this guy's gotten

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Speaker 1: a lot of obviously Rogan podcast is huge lot of

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Speaker 1: attention for this. What do you think. I mean, Look,

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Speaker 1: he could be right, but I think the job of

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Speaker 1: our strategy, I mean, calling yourself a strategist a little ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, if you'll bear with me for a second,

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Speaker 1: the job of the strategist is to figure out what's

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Speaker 1: in the best interests of the country. And Peter Zihon

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Speaker 1: could be right. Personally am skeptical, but again I could

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Speaker 1: be wrong, but I think we need to cover or

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Speaker 1: prepare for the downside risk. And you know, if he's

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Speaker 1: right and we've prepared as if the Chinese are not

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Speaker 1: going to fall apart, well, then we'll have probably spent

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Speaker 1: too much money and maybe been a little more regressive

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Speaker 1: than we might have needed to have been. But if

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Speaker 1: he's wrong and we took his advice and we assumed

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Speaker 1: that that was going to happen, then we're in a

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Speaker 1: world of hurt. So I just I don't I honestly,

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Speaker 1: that's that argument is not because okay, so like it's

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Speaker 1: like if there was another China out there, Let's say

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Speaker 1: there was a USSR, you know, nineteen fifty, so like,

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Speaker 1: at least allegedly we thought at the time of peer economy,

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Speaker 1: let's say there were two of them, and so there

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Speaker 1: was like a real choice about whether or not you

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Speaker 1: could focus on them. But Rush is one tenth the

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Speaker 1: economic size of China. So it's like, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: we'll just cover down on that risk and if he's right, great,

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Speaker 1: you know, if the chemo works or whatever, great, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's that's not the best analogy, but that's you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean, so that's the basic way. Now, if we're

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Speaker 1: going to be a little bit lean, a little bit

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Speaker 1: farther forward. And again I don't think we need to

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Speaker 1: on this point. I mean, I'll tell you. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: a lot of the numbers people who have to make

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Speaker 1: money for a living still putting money into China. Right.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's patriotic, but I'm saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're probably not stupid. And not just Americans. You know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in Japan and Europe and so forward.

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Speaker 1: So I think by the way where people put their

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Speaker 1: money is always such an important indicator. I think it's

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Speaker 1: one of the one of the best arguments when people

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Speaker 1: talk about climate change. You know, I'm down here in

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Speaker 1: Miami and I keep saying, if I went up somebody said, look,

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Speaker 1: you know, you're on a thirty year mortgage right now.

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Speaker 1: You just bought this house on the beach, but I'm

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Speaker 1: going to take it off your hands at half price

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Speaker 1: because climate change. You know, listen to Al Gore the

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama's house in Martha's Viney. Yeah, now, Martha's video.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gave me a big break on

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Speaker 1: that one either. They'll laugh in my face. So we

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Speaker 1: all know what the reality is with that one. I

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Speaker 1: think the money going into China is still an important

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Speaker 1: indicator though to that end, but there does seem to

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Speaker 1: be this. It's interesting to me. I remember back in

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Speaker 1: the nineties early nineties, really it was Japan is going

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Speaker 1: to take over the world, and specifically Japan was going

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Speaker 1: to buy America, as in own our corporations, own our

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Speaker 1: real estate, our land, our food supply. And then we realize, oh,

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Speaker 1: wait a second, Japan actually has huge demographic issues and

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Speaker 1: is going to go into a long period of economic

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Speaker 1: stagnation and real decline. I wonder how we look at

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Speaker 1: this then, and how we can textualize where we are

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Speaker 1: visa v. China. Because I just brought up Peter Zihad,

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Speaker 1: and look, I'm gonna give the guy credit for it

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Speaker 1: is very interesting, covers a lot of ground. You know,

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Speaker 1: speaks eloquently, so I don't I'm not criticizing him. I

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Speaker 1: just think it's interesting to hear. I want more really

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Speaker 1: smart people and people like you, people who focus on

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Speaker 1: these issues, to be sharing the different perspectives and ideas

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Speaker 1: on this, and sometimes that means disagreeing publicly, so we

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Speaker 1: can get closer to what the most likely reality is

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Speaker 1: the most likely truth that we face. Gordon Chang another

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Speaker 1: good friend of mine. I'm sure you know Gordon, and

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Speaker 1: I've known Gordon for over a decade now. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he kind of smiles about it. But he wrote a book,

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Speaker 1: I think, in the Early Truth thus Becoming Collapse, the

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Speaker 1: becoming Collapse of China, and we've been I mean, and

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Speaker 1: Gordon is super knowledgeable on China talking about it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he just you know, you want you want to talk

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Speaker 1: about den Chaoping, and you want to talk about you know,

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Speaker 1: uh Maoist Industrial Revolution and all these things. And he's

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Speaker 1: an encyclopedia. But China hasn't collapsed and it's been like

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Speaker 1: twenty years since he wrote the book something like that.

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Speaker 1: So what is it with Why why is there this

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Speaker 1: China's about a collapse? China is about to collapse when China,

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Speaker 1: for thirty years now overall, has just gotten a whole

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Speaker 1: lot wealthier and more influential, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: It seems like there's a dissonance. Yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think let me answer the Japan thing first. If they

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Speaker 1: if they conk out where Japan has has sort of flattened, plateaued,

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Speaker 1: and their debates about where the Japanese actually are. I

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Speaker 1: think they'd be like two or three times the size

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Speaker 1: of the American economy, so that that shouldn't give us

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Speaker 1: too much comfort. I mean, bear in mind that Japan

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Speaker 1: was you know, I guess about half today maybe a

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Speaker 1: third of our population. So I mean it's just a

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Speaker 1: different order man, too. China's one and four billion people. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's declining, but there's still a lot of people, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, a lot more than we have. So I

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Speaker 1: think that's we shouldn't take too much, too much a

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Speaker 1: comfort from the japan example in that respect. I mean,

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Speaker 1: why do people do it? I mean it's like the

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Speaker 1: people who predicted the ten of the last whatever, three

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Speaker 1: recessions or something like that, right. I mean it doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean they're wrong, right, But I mean the market analogy

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Speaker 1: is not a bad one actually here, because timing is

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Speaker 1: really important. You know, for instance, if we go drill

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Speaker 1: down onto the Taiwan issue, if we're ready for a

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Speaker 1: Taiwan fight in twenty thirty five and the Chinese are

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Speaker 1: ready in twenty thirty doesn't matter, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's I mean I worry that it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of wish fulfillment, not wish is too strong.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to say that about these guys,

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Speaker 1: but I mean it's a little bit, you know, And

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Speaker 1: there's also I will say, how you look at it.

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Speaker 1: Look at if you're trying to make an important analytical

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Speaker 1: point and maybe get you know, hit that bull's eye

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Speaker 1: in terms of like, let's say a really you know,

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Speaker 1: counter market beat. That's one thing. But if you're if

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Speaker 1: you're dealing with the American you know, the fate of

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Speaker 1: the American Republic, I think you should prepare more for

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of less risky is sort of bet

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Speaker 1: So the question that I'm gonna post to Bridge here

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Speaker 1: in a second is what does a Chinese invasion of

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Speaker 1: Taiwan look like and what happens? Which is really important.

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Speaker 1: People are gonna want to hear about that. But I

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Speaker 1: want to step back from it for a second because

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Speaker 1: I mentioned Bridge and I go way back to the

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Speaker 1: Georgetown drinking days of our early twenties. I don't have

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Speaker 1: any photos unfortunately of it, but if I did, you

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Speaker 1: know what I would do with I would I would

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Speaker 1: put them on legacy box. I would send them in

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Speaker 1: on legacy box because then I could. I could digitize

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Speaker 1: them and text in the bridge and say, my god,

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Speaker 1: look at your haircut, look at mine. It's been twenty years.

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Speaker 1: But see, that's the fun thing about Legacy Box. They

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Speaker 1: can take old photos, video, super eight film, VHS tapes

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Speaker 1: and they can transfer it into digital format. So then

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Speaker 1: it's safe forever. Because by the way photos, old videotape

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Speaker 1: so well, how do you even play that? And it

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Speaker 1: degrades over time. So now is the time to transfer

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Speaker 1: all your old media into new media, digital media, so

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Speaker 1: it's safe, you can keep it and you can share

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Speaker 1: it for many, many years to come. So I've done

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Speaker 1: this before and it is such an easy process. They

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Speaker 1: send you a box in the mail, you fill it

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Speaker 1: with your stuff, your VHS tape, super eight film, whatever

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Speaker 1: you got, and then they hand transfer all of it

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Speaker 1: into digital media, so things like a link in the

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Speaker 1: cloud or even a thumb drive. They send it right

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Speaker 1: back to you with all of your original media too,

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Speaker 1: so you keep all that as well. It's great. You

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Speaker 1: gotta get started in this, it's a great project. At

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, go to legacybox dot com

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Speaker 1: slash buck to take advantage of this great discount offer

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Speaker 1: because we're getting you fantastic pricing right now, legacybox dot

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Speaker 1: com slash buck. That's legacybox dot com slash buck. And

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Speaker 1: you're gonna love your legacy box stuff now that you've

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Speaker 1: got this all squared away. Bridge, What happens if child

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Speaker 1: I just at the broadest level, top down and drill

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Speaker 1: down on however you want. We wake up, we get

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Speaker 1: we get word that China has invaded Taiwan. What does

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Speaker 1: that look like and what happens? I think, just to

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Speaker 1: be really straight, I think it is a massive attack

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Speaker 1: on Taiwan and probably at this point an attack on

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Speaker 1: US and probably Japanese and maybe Australian forces at least

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Speaker 1: in the region. And here's why. And I think you

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Speaker 1: can see an illustration of why that makes sense relatively speaking,

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Speaker 1: based on the Ukraine experience, which is the real lesson

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine for Hijinping is not don't try. But if

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Speaker 1: you're going to try, don't mess around, you know, and

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Speaker 1: you could use you could use a more barnyard epithet

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Speaker 1: if you wanted. I mean, that's really what what it

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Speaker 1: is is, leave nothing to chance. If you were thinking

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Speaker 1: of sending two missiles, send six if you were thinking

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Speaker 1: somebody was going to defect, kill him. And that's especially

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Speaker 1: the case when you're dealing with something like an amphibious invasion.

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Speaker 1: If you're crossing a land border in a flat territory,

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Speaker 1: you can creep across, maybe come back, you know, go back,

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Speaker 1: go back. That's that's not the case with an amphibious invasion.

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Speaker 1: If you're gonna do it, you gotta go in. You

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Speaker 1: gotta go in big. And I think the Chinese are

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Speaker 1: if they haven't already understood that, I think they're going

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Speaker 1: to understand. And this is why I'm less worried about

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Speaker 1: things like a blockade or a seizure of the offshore islands.

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Speaker 1: I think what they're going to do, and they think

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Speaker 1: the Americans are going to come in at this point,

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Speaker 1: So that means get your blow in early and effectively.

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Speaker 1: And that's something like in effect a Japanese attack in

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Speaker 1: December and January forty one, forty two, But that could

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Speaker 1: be more effective and more lasting than the Japanese attack.

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Speaker 1: Was how do we stack up versus Chinese Chinese military

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Speaker 1: capabilities in that theed or in this circumstance, as in,

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Speaker 1: you know, do what are our trump cards? Or what

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Speaker 1: are our advantages and what are theirs? Where are the

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Speaker 1: areas where we've never had to handle their capabilities in

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Speaker 1: a certain realm, or certainly never come up against anything

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Speaker 1: quite like it, and therefore we could face the unexpected. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think, I mean, in a sense, this is the

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Speaker 1: trillion dollar question, and I think the bottom line would

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Speaker 1: be that it is very competitive, and it's trending in

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Speaker 1: a bad direction, at least in this decade. That's part

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Speaker 1: of the reasons why I'm so concerned about, say twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty seven or a little after or maybe a little before,

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Speaker 1: is because there's reason to think that that might be

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Speaker 1: their optimal time to move. So if you look at

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Speaker 1: back why wars have happened, they've often happened because an

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Speaker 1: aggressor said I may not be perfectly ready, but I'm

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Speaker 1: never going to be ready, or relative to the enemy,

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Speaker 1: then I will be right now. So, for instance, in the

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Speaker 1: the nineteen thirty nine the German High command was reluctant

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Speaker 1: to go to war, but Hitler said, look, we're readier

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Speaker 1: than the Allies and they're rearming, so this is our

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Speaker 1: best chance. So what are the fundamental advantages? I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of technology going on. I'd say what

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Speaker 1: you'd say on that is it's become a lot more competitive.

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Speaker 1: The Chinese appeared to have potentially moved ahead in some areas,

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Speaker 1: like maybe hypersonics. There's concern about some elements of artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 1: I think when you really boil it down, our advantages

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Speaker 1: they have to attack across eighty to one hundred miles

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Speaker 1: of water, which is difficult, very difficult again, and subordinate

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Speaker 1: country effectively that doesn't want to be subordinate, and their

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Speaker 1: advantages they're one hundred miles and were five thousand miles.

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Speaker 1: You know, we got a lot of force in Japan,

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Speaker 1: but the Western Pacific is a maritime theater, so it

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Speaker 1: cuts both ways. Our wheelhouse, traditionally as a military power

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Speaker 1: of the last hundred years has been air, space, naval technology.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look back Britain, I mean democracies,

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Speaker 1: commercial republics like ours. We don't like to throw people

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Speaker 1: into the meek grinder. What we're better at is high

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Speaker 1: capital intensive things like that. Chinese continental power willing to

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Speaker 1: throw a lot of people into the meek grinder necessary,

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Speaker 1: and I'm pretty confident that Chijinping would as well, and

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Speaker 1: that's their advantage, but they're also catching up in a

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Speaker 1: lot of technology areas, and they have the advantage of position,

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Speaker 1: and as the aggressor, they may have the advantage of surprise.

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Speaker 1: That's a big factor is whether we'll be able to detect. Now,

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Speaker 1: we'll probably be able to see a lot of things

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Speaker 1: that Chinese are doing, but we won't necessarily be able

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Speaker 1: to discern that that's clearly an indicator of an attack.

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Speaker 1: How do we go up against them right now to

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Speaker 1: the degree that we can discern this air to eric

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Speaker 1: Because one thing that everybody that I know who's been

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Speaker 1: in theater, even whether it was a civilian analyst like

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Speaker 1: me in a rock and Afghanistan, I could see this.

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Speaker 1: But talking to friends of mine who are who are frontline,

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Speaker 1: who who were soldiers, door kickers, special operations and all arrest,

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Speaker 1: a total air superiority in theater is something that I

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Speaker 1: think we have come to take for granted. The Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: have found out, unfortunately the hard way, that when you

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Speaker 1: don't have that, you've got some very big problems. How

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Speaker 1: do we stack up against the Chinese in an air

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Speaker 1: to air fight. That's a great question. I certainly don't

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Speaker 1: think we're gonna be able to have air dominance as

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Speaker 1: we've become accustomed to. And that's one of the things

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Speaker 1: actually in the strategy. Back when I was in the Pentagon,

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Speaker 1: they really tried to shift away from as a kind

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Speaker 1: of cultural shift from you know, when you served in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, and I briefly as well for the

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Speaker 1: State Department, that you know, there was total military dominance.

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Speaker 1: There was no quiet the Tally Bond or the Iraqi

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Speaker 1: insurgents right then. They weren't going to shoot down our

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Speaker 1: Sea one thirty with an F eighteen or something that

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Speaker 1: wasn't happening. They't have artillery basically, you know, maybe here

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Speaker 1: and there, but you know, I mean effectively right, totally

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Speaker 1: different situation. And the Chinese are going to be probably

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Speaker 1: attacking in space. They have air to air interceptors, they're

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Speaker 1: building stealth fighters, they're building nuclear powered submarines. The list

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Speaker 1: goes on. They got missiles. I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be narrower. So what the smartest kind of military analysts

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Speaker 1: and senior officers talk about is creating sort of openings

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Speaker 1: of opportunity. And this is where really focusing on what

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Speaker 1: we need to do is so important. A lot of

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Speaker 1: this is going to be about killing their invasion fleet

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Speaker 1: and their air or model that's delivering and sustaining forces

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Speaker 1: on island. We're never gonna it's never gonna be in

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty five. We're going to march into Berlin or

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Speaker 1: Tokyo Saiale in Tokyo Bay. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: defeat of the invasion short of total victory, but that's

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Speaker 1: going to be enough. But I think the people that

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Speaker 1: I talk to are the people who talk to the

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Speaker 1: people who are really out there at the tip of

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Speaker 1: the spear. They don't take our superiority for granted, and

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Speaker 1: that's really important. I think that's one thing I really

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Speaker 1: makes me uncomfortable is when some of our senior political

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Speaker 1: or military figures, Hey, we never nobody can can compete

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Speaker 1: with us, And it's like, wait a minute, that's not

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Speaker 1: that doesn't that's not the kind of added should we need.

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Speaker 1: We need people who take nothing for granted, because that's

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Speaker 1: you know, and even if even if man for man,

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Speaker 1: woman whatever, woman for woman, that we may be better,

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Speaker 1: they got position numbers, they're probably willing to lose more people.

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Speaker 1: So we really can't take anything for granted. How did

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Speaker 1: the Taiwanese defense forces stack up in this situation? And

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Speaker 1: is there a whole lot more we could be or

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Speaker 1: should be doing for them to make Taiwan you know,

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Speaker 1: the porcupine so to speak, that China is not going

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Speaker 1: to want to handle. That is another critical question in fact,

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Speaker 1: that Taiwanese forces resolve and capability might be the biggest

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Speaker 1: X factor we face because look, it's a lot of

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Speaker 1: this is going to be in the sea and air

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Speaker 1: and space, but at the end of the day, the

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Speaker 1: Chinese is going to be trying to land a lot

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Speaker 1: of forces on the island and defeat the Taiwanese ground

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Speaker 1: for the taime when he's military, but particularly ground forces,

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Speaker 1: and how tough they are, how willing they are to

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Speaker 1: fight that is, and how skilled they are is a

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Speaker 1: critical question. We've been pushing them for a while to

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Speaker 1: shift towards what you could call asymmetric defense, basically designed

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Speaker 1: to an invasion, and their former Chief of Defense, Admiral Lishiman,

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Speaker 1: has written a very good book, I think thus far

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Speaker 1: only in Chinese arguing for this. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: resistance throughout the Taiwani system. These moves. Actually, I think

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Speaker 1: the political leadership is pretty supportive. But that's a big

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Speaker 1: questions when I'm trying to get a better sense of

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Speaker 1: But if they're not willing to fight hard and skillfully,

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Speaker 1: this whole thing may just be untenable. Yeah, what about

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Speaker 1: the US response, as in, will there definitely be one?

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Speaker 1: Do you think that there's a real chance that let's

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Speaker 1: say this, Let's say it's go time for the Chinese

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Speaker 1: Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army right in five years,

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Speaker 1: and they go for it. Whoever the administration is at

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Speaker 1: that point. Let's just assume it's an American president. We

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Speaker 1: don't know who it is. Is there a chance that

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Speaker 1: they just go You know what, Taiwan, we wish you

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Speaker 1: the best. There is a chance, and that worries me

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Speaker 1: not begain I think we've talked about this, I mean

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Speaker 1: stepping back. You know, I was against the Iraq War,

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Speaker 1: against the intervention in Syria, I was against the long

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Speaker 1: nation building mission in Afghanistan. I'm worried about escalation in

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Speaker 1: the context of Ukraine, so I'm not I'm not looking

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Speaker 1: for an excuse to intervene. So I totally get that.

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Speaker 1: In fact, in a sense, that's kind of where my

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Speaker 1: gut sympathy is. But here's the reality. I mean, China

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Speaker 1: is a superpower and if it's looking to dominate Asia

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Speaker 1: and from there become globally pre eminent and impose itself

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Speaker 1: on our way of life. And I think Americans really

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Speaker 1: understand that Taiwan matters a lot for that because if

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Speaker 1: we especially if we just back down, what are you know,

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Speaker 1: it's human nature. What are people going to say, Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to stick my neck out because the

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Speaker 1: Americans are gonna let me go. They're going to come

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Speaker 1: up with another excuse to say, why you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: the Philippines or I'm Vietnam. Why they got to cut

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Speaker 1: me off? And then after that, you know they're going

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Speaker 1: to isolate South Korea and Japan and you know, it

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Speaker 1: sounds like the Domino theory and they got us into Vietnam.

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Speaker 1: And I'm always conscious of that. But the Domino theory

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Speaker 1: as a kernel of truth, which is like, you need

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Speaker 1: to know whether you can trust somebody if you're going

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Speaker 1: to stick your neck out, and that's really critical, and

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Speaker 1: what I fear is that somebody would make that decision

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Speaker 1: and then the situation we get so much worse because

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Speaker 1: a lot of our allies or partners would cut a

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Speaker 1: deal with China, but we'd still be stuck because we

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Speaker 1: can't let them run the world, right, we can't let

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Speaker 1: them run our own. You get run the Asian economy

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Speaker 1: and then dominate us, but then we'd be in a

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Speaker 1: far worse position. So my view is laser focus on

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Speaker 1: this and don't leave anything to chance. I mean, one

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Speaker 1: of the things that I really don't like about what

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Speaker 1: I think the administration is doing is they're kind of

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Speaker 1: cutting it close. It's too cute. Yeah, we're focusing on Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: but you know we're also going to walk and choogum

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Speaker 1: at the same time and do Ukraine and not raise

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Speaker 1: defense spending and all that. And it's like, no, no, no no,

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Speaker 1: don't screw around. Don't get close to fifty percent, because

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Speaker 1: then the Chinese are more likely to do it, and

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Speaker 1: we're more likely to lose. Better to be at seventy

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Speaker 1: five percent because we can't get to one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: certainty seventy five eight and then the Chinese won't do it,

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Speaker 1: and then we won't have to make this decision. But

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Speaker 1: I think the real and just one last point. The

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Speaker 1: other thing is if we screw around and equivocate. Hey,

426
00:20:04,297 --> 00:20:06,577
Speaker 1: you know, let's wait a week or two weeks. It'll

427
00:20:06,617 --> 00:20:09,377
Speaker 1: be disastrous. So we've got to be like all in

428
00:20:10,057 --> 00:20:12,217
Speaker 1: from the beginning. And he makes a huge military difference.

429
00:20:12,297 --> 00:20:14,497
Speaker 1: So that's like, I just think we've got to be

430
00:20:14,577 --> 00:20:16,977
Speaker 1: clear in our own mind. And if we're clear, and

431
00:20:17,057 --> 00:20:19,577
Speaker 1: if we're capable, I think the Chinese will decide not

432
00:20:19,777 --> 00:20:21,857
Speaker 1: to do it. Because Mazadon wanted to take over Taie one,

433
00:20:21,897 --> 00:20:23,417
Speaker 1: but we never did it. He was like the evilest

434
00:20:23,457 --> 00:20:25,057
Speaker 1: guy who ever lived, but one of them, and he

435
00:20:25,177 --> 00:20:26,857
Speaker 1: decided not to do it because he knew he would fail.

436
00:20:28,417 --> 00:20:32,937
Speaker 1: So is there a risk of immediate escalation against not

437
00:20:33,057 --> 00:20:36,617
Speaker 1: just the US force that would be responding to a

438
00:20:36,857 --> 00:20:39,457
Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Do you think they could go

439
00:20:39,777 --> 00:20:43,137
Speaker 1: after us elsewhere? I mean any things. Obviously, we have

440
00:20:43,217 --> 00:20:46,537
Speaker 1: bases in the Pacific Theater, Hawaii's out there. It's a

441
00:20:47,057 --> 00:20:50,017
Speaker 1: major concentration of US military force, but it's a small

442
00:20:50,097 --> 00:20:51,537
Speaker 1: island chain in the middle of the Pacific. I mean,

443
00:20:51,577 --> 00:20:54,257
Speaker 1: do you think that that escalation is something to be

444
00:20:54,297 --> 00:20:57,417
Speaker 1: concerned about or would China limit itself to Well, if

445
00:20:57,457 --> 00:20:59,097
Speaker 1: you come into the you know, if you come into

446
00:20:59,137 --> 00:21:01,297
Speaker 1: the Taiwan Straits, it's fair game. But other than that,

447
00:21:01,377 --> 00:21:04,937
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna leave it there absolutely risk. I mean,

448
00:21:04,977 --> 00:21:06,577
Speaker 1: I think at this point, given that they expect that

449
00:21:06,617 --> 00:21:09,017
Speaker 1: Americans probably come in, then they probably attack throughout the

450
00:21:09,057 --> 00:21:12,857
Speaker 1: Western Pacific, including against Japan, probably Guam other places. And

451
00:21:12,937 --> 00:21:15,417
Speaker 1: I think there's a real possibility, in fact probability, that

452
00:21:15,457 --> 00:21:18,057
Speaker 1: they would do some attacks on the homeland of some kind.

453
00:21:18,577 --> 00:21:21,617
Speaker 1: Now I think those are likely to be probably matching

454
00:21:21,737 --> 00:21:24,057
Speaker 1: to what we would do in attacks on the Chinese mainland,

455
00:21:24,057 --> 00:21:26,817
Speaker 1: which would be necessary to be successful in my assessment,

456
00:21:26,977 --> 00:21:30,177
Speaker 1: So attacks on military targets, I mean military forces from

457
00:21:30,177 --> 00:21:32,497
Speaker 1: the United States would be operating from probably Hawaii or

458
00:21:32,497 --> 00:21:35,297
Speaker 1: would be supported from critical parts. And of course the

459
00:21:35,417 --> 00:21:38,057
Speaker 1: Chinese have nuclear weapons. But the reality, unfortunately is that

460
00:21:38,137 --> 00:21:39,937
Speaker 1: a homeland is not a sanctuary. And I don't think

461
00:21:39,977 --> 00:21:42,937
Speaker 1: the Chinese are crazy, so we have ways of deterring

462
00:21:42,977 --> 00:21:45,337
Speaker 1: them from doing things that would be really bloody minded.

463
00:21:45,617 --> 00:21:48,057
Speaker 1: But again, nobody knows how a warlike that would go,

464
00:21:48,377 --> 00:21:51,857
Speaker 1: so I'm not confident about it. I'm not sanguine, but

465
00:21:52,017 --> 00:21:54,417
Speaker 1: I think there are ways of fighting, and that's actually

466
00:21:54,417 --> 00:21:55,737
Speaker 1: a big part of what I tried to argue in

467
00:21:55,777 --> 00:21:57,697
Speaker 1: the books, I think, as you know, is how do

468
00:21:57,777 --> 00:22:00,297
Speaker 1: we manage escalation as context so we don't get in

469
00:22:00,377 --> 00:22:04,257
Speaker 1: a place where were our strategy is insane. We would

470
00:22:04,257 --> 00:22:08,217
Speaker 1: be stupid to follow through on it because that's not credible,

471
00:22:08,217 --> 00:22:09,857
Speaker 1: and if we got to that point, we shouldn't do

472
00:22:09,937 --> 00:22:12,417
Speaker 1: it if it's crazy. How much could we count on

473
00:22:12,857 --> 00:22:18,857
Speaker 1: the literal states Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, you know,

474
00:22:18,937 --> 00:22:22,217
Speaker 1: go go down the list right to be a meaningful

475
00:22:23,977 --> 00:22:27,497
Speaker 1: of meaningful assistance and perhaps even direct combatants in this

476
00:22:28,097 --> 00:22:31,977
Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan war gaming we're talking about. I

477
00:22:32,057 --> 00:22:34,937
Speaker 1: think it depends. I think Australia we could count on

478
00:22:34,977 --> 00:22:38,257
Speaker 1: a lot, probably, although they're far away so limited impact.

479
00:22:38,417 --> 00:22:42,017
Speaker 1: But Japan increasingly, I think the Japanese have been very

480
00:22:42,097 --> 00:22:43,977
Speaker 1: vocal over the last couple of years that they regard

481
00:22:44,377 --> 00:22:47,817
Speaker 1: Taiwan as directly connected to their own security and independence,

482
00:22:47,817 --> 00:22:49,777
Speaker 1: and I think they're right. I mean, it's if you

483
00:22:50,097 --> 00:22:51,937
Speaker 1: you know, in a way Taiwan is part of the

484
00:22:52,017 --> 00:22:55,297
Speaker 1: Japanese archipelago. I mean the Sankakus, which they're neuralgic about,

485
00:22:55,337 --> 00:22:58,617
Speaker 1: are within I believe, within visual range of Taiwan. So

486
00:22:59,217 --> 00:23:02,417
Speaker 1: if Taiwan falls, the Japanese are in huge trouble. Now,

487
00:23:02,577 --> 00:23:04,737
Speaker 1: the South Koreans, I think, are moving in the right

488
00:23:04,777 --> 00:23:07,217
Speaker 1: direction to the Union government. They've got their handsful with

489
00:23:07,257 --> 00:23:09,937
Speaker 1: North Korea. So I think militarily probably be more about

490
00:23:10,137 --> 00:23:13,097
Speaker 1: access and political support. Philippines would be very important. I

491
00:23:13,137 --> 00:23:15,697
Speaker 1: think the new government under President Marcos is an improvement.

492
00:23:16,657 --> 00:23:21,577
Speaker 1: A lot of that's about the ability to use Philippine territory, access, etc. Again,

493
00:23:21,817 --> 00:23:23,857
Speaker 1: I mean, look, and I think the Ukraine War again

494
00:23:23,897 --> 00:23:26,457
Speaker 1: as an example here, people love a winner. If we're

495
00:23:26,497 --> 00:23:29,177
Speaker 1: doing well, people are probably going to be more likely

496
00:23:29,257 --> 00:23:31,297
Speaker 1: to kind of take some risk and if they can,

497
00:23:31,417 --> 00:23:34,137
Speaker 1: if they can be confidents, if we're getting our tails kicked,

498
00:23:35,097 --> 00:23:37,337
Speaker 1: people might cut a deal, you know. And you know,

499
00:23:37,377 --> 00:23:39,457
Speaker 1: Thailand has been an ally of the United States for decades,

500
00:23:39,497 --> 00:23:41,617
Speaker 1: but in World War Two Thailand signed over to the

501
00:23:41,737 --> 00:23:43,817
Speaker 1: Japanese really quickly and let them through to attack the

502
00:23:44,057 --> 00:23:48,217
Speaker 1: British Burmans Malaya. So I mean, people are gonna go

503
00:23:48,377 --> 00:23:50,297
Speaker 1: where the wind blows a little bit. So that's that's

504
00:23:50,337 --> 00:23:52,977
Speaker 1: why it's important that we'd be prepared. Now back to

505
00:23:53,097 --> 00:23:56,457
Speaker 1: the internal dynamics in China for a moment here and

506
00:23:56,617 --> 00:23:59,737
Speaker 1: the coming collapse of China that's been coming for a

507
00:23:59,857 --> 00:24:02,297
Speaker 1: very long time to depending on which enels you talk to,

508
00:24:03,457 --> 00:24:06,417
Speaker 1: is there. So, So here's what I wanted to pose

509
00:24:06,457 --> 00:24:09,337
Speaker 1: to you. Really there there was. I think it's fair

510
00:24:09,377 --> 00:24:11,897
Speaker 1: to say a bypart is in consensus what's starting back,

511
00:24:11,977 --> 00:24:14,057
Speaker 1: and maybe you could roughly put it at the eighties,

512
00:24:14,177 --> 00:24:16,697
Speaker 1: maybe some a little sooner sooner, a little after that.

513
00:24:17,657 --> 00:24:19,737
Speaker 1: If we do a lot of trade with China, we

514
00:24:19,817 --> 00:24:21,657
Speaker 1: helped China get a whole lot wealthier. We get China

515
00:24:21,657 --> 00:24:25,617
Speaker 1: in the wto that the political system there will liberalize

516
00:24:25,657 --> 00:24:28,417
Speaker 1: and improve over time, and that they'll be, you know,

517
00:24:28,577 --> 00:24:31,337
Speaker 1: more like a Western European power and less like a

518
00:24:31,817 --> 00:24:37,297
Speaker 1: despotic totalitarian communist state that's very aggressive. I think that

519
00:24:37,497 --> 00:24:40,577
Speaker 1: has not been true. That's kind of obvious at this point, right,

520
00:24:40,617 --> 00:24:42,377
Speaker 1: I think we could all agree on that. So that

521
00:24:42,537 --> 00:24:45,297
Speaker 1: was a misperception that persisted for a very long time.

522
00:24:45,377 --> 00:24:48,977
Speaker 1: We've allowed our near we basically paid our near pier

523
00:24:49,057 --> 00:24:51,497
Speaker 1: competitor to become what it is, right or I should say,

524
00:24:51,537 --> 00:24:54,377
Speaker 1: you know, the Indians make when we criticize them as hey,

525
00:24:54,457 --> 00:24:56,897
Speaker 1: you guys built up the Chinese, don't don't criticize us. Yeah,

526
00:24:56,897 --> 00:24:59,337
Speaker 1: and now we're looking to the Indians and saying, hey,

527
00:24:59,417 --> 00:25:01,217
Speaker 1: can you guys kind of help keep China and it's

528
00:25:01,297 --> 00:25:03,897
Speaker 1: box And they're you know, they got their own problems, right.

529
00:25:03,897 --> 00:25:05,937
Speaker 1: I mean, it's still doing at the Pakistan issue. So

530
00:25:07,737 --> 00:25:11,537
Speaker 1: what is what can be done to internally? Is there

531
00:25:11,537 --> 00:25:13,857
Speaker 1: anything can be done to internally make things better so

532
00:25:14,017 --> 00:25:18,377
Speaker 1: that instead of could we win a short term conflict

533
00:25:18,417 --> 00:25:21,217
Speaker 1: with China to defend Taiwan? Would we even get into

534
00:25:21,257 --> 00:25:23,697
Speaker 1: that conflict that area? Would you've already gone into It's

535
00:25:24,097 --> 00:25:26,337
Speaker 1: China doesn't want to do that anymore, you know. Is

536
00:25:26,497 --> 00:25:30,497
Speaker 1: that even something we could we could realistically hope and

537
00:25:30,817 --> 00:25:34,697
Speaker 1: or push for. I don't think so. Again, it's possible,

538
00:25:34,977 --> 00:25:37,857
Speaker 1: but I mean there was a book by a Sky

539
00:25:37,977 --> 00:25:42,257
Speaker 1: New Yorker guy uh on China called The Age of Ambition,

540
00:25:42,297 --> 00:25:44,217
Speaker 1: and it got its something. I didn't actually read the

541
00:25:44,257 --> 00:25:50,537
Speaker 1: whole book, but yeah, I know, but the point was

542
00:25:50,697 --> 00:25:54,217
Speaker 1: that that it describes something more fundamental about human nature,

543
00:25:54,657 --> 00:25:57,257
Speaker 1: which is like that Chinese are super powerful now and

544
00:25:57,297 --> 00:25:59,417
Speaker 1: they expect to be. You know, what you hear from

545
00:25:59,417 --> 00:26:01,657
Speaker 1: the Asian other Asian countries is they're like, you're a

546
00:26:01,737 --> 00:26:05,217
Speaker 1: small country behave accordingly, you know, listen to number one.

547
00:26:05,257 --> 00:26:07,857
Speaker 1: We expect to be treated as a superpower essentially, So

548
00:26:07,977 --> 00:26:09,697
Speaker 1: I don't see that going away, And it's not really

549
00:26:09,697 --> 00:26:11,697
Speaker 1: I mean, we'll talk about the Marxist Leninism in and

550
00:26:11,857 --> 00:26:14,697
Speaker 1: that is important, but it's not. I don't think it's

551
00:26:14,697 --> 00:26:17,897
Speaker 1: actually the primary driver of why China is so dangerous.

552
00:26:18,057 --> 00:26:21,657
Speaker 1: I think it's more ambition, aggressiveness, expansive, you know, as

553
00:26:21,697 --> 00:26:23,857
Speaker 1: people get stronger, and if they don't face checkman, it's

554
00:26:23,897 --> 00:26:26,057
Speaker 1: the core of the American system. If they don't face

555
00:26:26,177 --> 00:26:30,097
Speaker 1: checks and balances, then they are more likely to transgress

556
00:26:30,217 --> 00:26:32,177
Speaker 1: others interests. What I would One thing I want to

557
00:26:32,177 --> 00:26:35,577
Speaker 1: point out is that there you're you're you're pointing to

558
00:26:35,737 --> 00:26:37,537
Speaker 1: something that was very real. People like to deny it now,

559
00:26:37,577 --> 00:26:41,177
Speaker 1: but it was obviously there, which was, you know, by

560
00:26:41,217 --> 00:26:43,977
Speaker 1: trading with them, we will make them democratic, right. But

561
00:26:44,097 --> 00:26:46,817
Speaker 1: there was a second part of that, which is which

562
00:26:46,977 --> 00:26:50,057
Speaker 1: was even if they don't change, we will still be

563
00:26:50,177 --> 00:26:52,337
Speaker 1: able to outcompete them. And I think this is really

564
00:26:52,417 --> 00:26:55,217
Speaker 1: important point from a kind of new right perspective. I

565
00:26:55,297 --> 00:26:57,177
Speaker 1: think both of you know, both of us have similar

566
00:26:57,257 --> 00:26:59,777
Speaker 1: kind of views on this, which is that was the

567
00:26:59,897 --> 00:27:02,137
Speaker 1: almost the more important part of the argument was like,

568
00:27:02,737 --> 00:27:04,617
Speaker 1: even if we let them into the WTO and we

569
00:27:04,737 --> 00:27:06,777
Speaker 1: let them take advantage of us, it doesn't matter because

570
00:27:06,817 --> 00:27:09,537
Speaker 1: our you know, our perfect free market system is so good.

571
00:27:09,697 --> 00:27:12,897
Speaker 1: Outcome them in that and they'll just make our stuff disproved, right,

572
00:27:12,977 --> 00:27:15,057
Speaker 1: They'll just make our stuff for Walmart, and you know

573
00:27:15,137 --> 00:27:17,377
Speaker 1: they can they can keep just exactly and in our

574
00:27:17,777 --> 00:27:20,057
Speaker 1: systems more competitive, so it'll be more efficient. It's like no,

575
00:27:20,457 --> 00:27:22,897
Speaker 1: And I think this is where the industrial policy stuff,

576
00:27:23,097 --> 00:27:25,817
Speaker 1: whether one thinks industrial policy or government involved in the

577
00:27:25,897 --> 00:27:29,617
Speaker 1: economy is abstractly necessary. We don't live in the abstract world.

578
00:27:29,617 --> 00:27:31,537
Speaker 1: We will live in a world where the largest economy

579
00:27:31,577 --> 00:27:34,777
Speaker 1: in the world in PPP terms is doing industrial policy

580
00:27:34,817 --> 00:27:37,457
Speaker 1: on a massive scale. So it's like that's the world

581
00:27:37,497 --> 00:27:41,577
Speaker 1: that we live in. And in terms of I mean,

582
00:27:41,937 --> 00:27:44,937
Speaker 1: you know, the actual because I don't think it's so

583
00:27:45,017 --> 00:27:47,777
Speaker 1: interesting if you go in and dive a little bit

584
00:27:47,857 --> 00:27:52,257
Speaker 1: into um North Korean ideology. I think there's some interesting

585
00:27:52,377 --> 00:27:57,337
Speaker 1: comparison people make with with with North Korean ideology obviously

586
00:27:57,537 --> 00:28:01,657
Speaker 1: very heavily borrows from Stalinist Stalinist Soviet Union, but also

587
00:28:01,857 --> 00:28:07,137
Speaker 1: borrows very heavily from uh, from imperial Japan and some

588
00:28:07,297 --> 00:28:12,657
Speaker 1: of the racial religious uh, you know, ultra nationalism. I mean,

589
00:28:12,777 --> 00:28:15,177
Speaker 1: you know North Korea. It's not it's not like Marx

590
00:28:15,217 --> 00:28:17,057
Speaker 1: came up with this and like, yeah, we're gonna try that, right,

591
00:28:17,097 --> 00:28:20,537
Speaker 1: There's there's some different China is even more different in

592
00:28:20,657 --> 00:28:24,897
Speaker 1: his sense because you have the trappings of a communist regime.

593
00:28:25,017 --> 00:28:27,857
Speaker 1: You have what like hundreds, maybe up to a thousand

594
00:28:27,897 --> 00:28:31,217
Speaker 1: people in China other than than She who make any

595
00:28:31,297 --> 00:28:34,097
Speaker 1: decisions of any real importance within the party right regionally.

596
00:28:34,297 --> 00:28:36,257
Speaker 1: I mean it's not it's a pretty small group of

597
00:28:36,337 --> 00:28:39,457
Speaker 1: people overall, who, as I understand it, are making most

598
00:28:39,537 --> 00:28:42,257
Speaker 1: of the major calls for within the Communist Party. And she,

599
00:28:42,417 --> 00:28:44,377
Speaker 1: of course sits atop the whole thing, as as the

600
00:28:44,937 --> 00:28:47,337
Speaker 1: you know, the dictator. But is a is it like

601
00:28:47,457 --> 00:28:52,577
Speaker 1: a mercantilist authoritarian society and what because it's people are like, oh,

602
00:28:52,657 --> 00:28:57,977
Speaker 1: communist China, yes, technically, but obviously also not technically. There

603
00:28:57,977 --> 00:29:00,817
Speaker 1: are billionaires walking around Beijing and Shanghai who are like, yeah,

604
00:29:00,857 --> 00:29:05,417
Speaker 1: call me a COMMI exactly with with entrepreneurial apps and

605
00:29:05,497 --> 00:29:08,257
Speaker 1: so forth, and fight sharing apps and stuff. I mean, look,

606
00:29:08,337 --> 00:29:11,377
Speaker 1: the Marchtist Leninism element is real. I actually think Shijen

607
00:29:11,457 --> 00:29:15,377
Speaker 1: Ping himself thinks he's thinks of himself as a dedicated

608
00:29:15,817 --> 00:29:18,737
Speaker 1: Marxist Lenises in some way. But remember his central project

609
00:29:18,857 --> 00:29:21,577
Speaker 1: is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It's not

610
00:29:21,777 --> 00:29:26,057
Speaker 1: workers of the World Unite. It's essentially a nationalistic project.

611
00:29:26,137 --> 00:29:30,137
Speaker 1: And nationalism is an incredibly powerful force. I mean, to

612
00:29:30,297 --> 00:29:32,657
Speaker 1: be fair, I usually think that we just call nationalism

613
00:29:32,737 --> 00:29:34,537
Speaker 1: patriotism when we don't like it. So it's like the

614
00:29:34,657 --> 00:29:39,097
Speaker 1: Chinese are super super patriotic. I mean not every Chinese obviously,

615
00:29:39,417 --> 00:29:41,617
Speaker 1: but it's you know, and that's another thing, is you

616
00:29:41,697 --> 00:29:44,897
Speaker 1: know in Asia, you know today, I mean still so

617
00:29:45,057 --> 00:29:47,777
Speaker 1: much where a lot of our mental models are refracted

618
00:29:47,817 --> 00:29:51,177
Speaker 1: through Europe and there's this post whatever rules based international

619
00:29:51,297 --> 00:29:54,777
Speaker 1: order blah blah blah. But like in Asia, nationalism is

620
00:29:54,777 --> 00:29:56,937
Speaker 1: a good thing because nationalism was what allowed them to

621
00:29:57,017 --> 00:30:00,017
Speaker 1: eject the Europeans who exploited them for several hundred years,

622
00:30:00,217 --> 00:30:03,297
Speaker 1: and it allows nations to be strong and pursue their interests.

623
00:30:03,417 --> 00:30:06,417
Speaker 1: The Indians are nationalists, Japanese were nationalists kind of, but

624
00:30:06,457 --> 00:30:09,417
Speaker 1: the Koreans are definitely. Both Koreans the South Koreans too.

625
00:30:09,417 --> 00:30:12,777
Speaker 1: They're very nationalistic Vietnamese. They kicked us out the French,

626
00:30:13,097 --> 00:30:15,537
Speaker 1: you know, etc. So it's like, I don't to me

627
00:30:15,697 --> 00:30:19,577
Speaker 1: that that's sort of it's not inherently a bad thing

628
00:30:19,777 --> 00:30:22,457
Speaker 1: Chinese nationalism or patriotism, but we can't let it run

629
00:30:22,777 --> 00:30:25,017
Speaker 1: rough shot. Something else. I want to ask you one

630
00:30:25,057 --> 00:30:27,577
Speaker 1: thing I know from one of the things I learned

631
00:30:27,737 --> 00:30:30,057
Speaker 1: in the CIA was super effective, especially when you have

632
00:30:30,177 --> 00:30:33,657
Speaker 1: to be moving around to whatever the issue is, right,

633
00:30:33,697 --> 00:30:36,137
Speaker 1: this is the thing you become inherently kind of a generalist. People.

634
00:30:36,137 --> 00:30:38,057
Speaker 1: Look why I did a rock and then Afghanistan. Yeah,

635
00:30:38,097 --> 00:30:41,697
Speaker 1: because skill set for one. Obama administration comes in after Bush.

636
00:30:41,737 --> 00:30:43,897
Speaker 1: It was all a rock, they moved Afghanistan. And so

637
00:30:44,057 --> 00:30:46,417
Speaker 1: you can't know everything. So you got to know the

638
00:30:46,577 --> 00:30:50,017
Speaker 1: people who know. Right, if you can discern who actually knows,

639
00:30:50,417 --> 00:30:52,337
Speaker 1: like you land on the ground in cobble or whatever,

640
00:30:52,457 --> 00:30:54,177
Speaker 1: you figure out pretty quickly who knows what the heck

641
00:30:54,217 --> 00:30:57,377
Speaker 1: they're talking about, and you can piece it together. It's

642
00:30:57,417 --> 00:30:59,497
Speaker 1: kind of like the allegory of the cave, right, Like

643
00:30:59,617 --> 00:31:01,217
Speaker 1: you just you don't have to see it, you just

644
00:31:01,337 --> 00:31:03,817
Speaker 1: have to know who can see it on the wall

645
00:31:04,217 --> 00:31:08,257
Speaker 1: and on Russia. The people that I know who understand

646
00:31:08,297 --> 00:31:11,897
Speaker 1: that country as as object matter experts have been kind

647
00:31:11,897 --> 00:31:14,937
Speaker 1: of banging this drum for years that we're always told that,

648
00:31:15,097 --> 00:31:18,617
Speaker 1: especially for the last whatever to six years, Putin's so

649
00:31:18,817 --> 00:31:24,057
Speaker 1: evil dictator. Everyone hates him. He's hanging you know, well,

650
00:31:24,097 --> 00:31:25,577
Speaker 1: he's not hanging on by a thread. But you know,

651
00:31:25,617 --> 00:31:27,017
Speaker 1: if they could, they get rid of him in a second.

652
00:31:27,017 --> 00:31:29,617
Speaker 1: And it's like, well, actually, whether it's fair to think

653
00:31:29,657 --> 00:31:31,737
Speaker 1: this way or not, the Russian people in the post

654
00:31:31,817 --> 00:31:36,017
Speaker 1: Soviet collapse were completely humiliated through the nineties and the

655
00:31:36,217 --> 00:31:40,857
Speaker 1: creation of a Russian middle class of sorts and certainly

656
00:31:40,897 --> 00:31:43,697
Speaker 1: of a Russian elite that pads a lot of pockets

657
00:31:43,737 --> 00:31:45,657
Speaker 1: and pays a lot of bribes, but even more so,

658
00:31:45,897 --> 00:31:49,737
Speaker 1: just more general economic product has all occurred under Vladimir

659
00:31:49,777 --> 00:31:53,577
Speaker 1: Putin's watch, and in essence, there's a very much a

660
00:31:53,657 --> 00:31:57,537
Speaker 1: quid pro quo constituency of everyday Russians who are like, no,

661
00:31:57,617 --> 00:31:59,897
Speaker 1: we actually like Putin. Now. That might have changed a

662
00:31:59,937 --> 00:32:02,897
Speaker 1: bit in the Ukraine era, but that's a reality that

663
00:32:02,977 --> 00:32:04,937
Speaker 1: people that I know who know Russia say never gets

664
00:32:04,937 --> 00:32:06,657
Speaker 1: talked about. You know, it's just, oh, he's bad, he's

665
00:32:06,697 --> 00:32:08,857
Speaker 1: a dictator. He stole the twenty sixteen election for Trump,

666
00:32:08,937 --> 00:32:11,817
Speaker 1: Like there's a very caricature of him. Yeah he's a

667
00:32:11,857 --> 00:32:13,977
Speaker 1: bad guy. Yeah he's done terrible things, of course, But

668
00:32:14,057 --> 00:32:16,417
Speaker 1: if you want understand internally, I bring it up because

669
00:32:16,577 --> 00:32:19,777
Speaker 1: in the context of China, I was in Beijing in

670
00:32:19,817 --> 00:32:22,377
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. I was in Beijing. I was doing a

671
00:32:22,617 --> 00:32:26,977
Speaker 1: you know, economic kind of economic chunket for for a

672
00:32:27,097 --> 00:32:29,457
Speaker 1: financial firm, and I went to China. I went to

673
00:32:29,537 --> 00:32:31,657
Speaker 1: Beijing and Shanghai. And one thing that came across very

674
00:32:31,697 --> 00:32:34,657
Speaker 1: clearly from discussions with some to the degree that they

675
00:32:34,657 --> 00:32:36,777
Speaker 1: were willing to talk to us openly and honestly, is

676
00:32:36,817 --> 00:32:40,057
Speaker 1: they the Chinese economy has been a miracle. Like we

677
00:32:40,217 --> 00:32:44,937
Speaker 1: think of China as a totalitarian society that doesn't allow

678
00:32:44,977 --> 00:32:47,217
Speaker 1: free speech, which is all true, and the weakers and

679
00:32:47,297 --> 00:32:50,417
Speaker 1: the terrible things, but they've also brought hundreds of millions

680
00:32:50,457 --> 00:32:54,537
Speaker 1: of people out of agrarian subsistence poverty, you know, gradian

681
00:32:54,537 --> 00:32:59,457
Speaker 1: subsistence living and poverty, dire poverty, and so like. There

682
00:32:59,537 --> 00:33:03,257
Speaker 1: there's actually more support for the Communist Party as it

683
00:33:03,497 --> 00:33:06,617
Speaker 1: is than the West often realizes, just because of the

684
00:33:06,697 --> 00:33:09,737
Speaker 1: economic benefits. Like how do you how do you view that?

685
00:33:10,057 --> 00:33:11,617
Speaker 1: I know it's different than the Russian context, but I

686
00:33:11,657 --> 00:33:13,737
Speaker 1: see some similarity. But I think I did an analogy,

687
00:33:13,737 --> 00:33:15,297
Speaker 1: and I mean, I think this gets to something. I

688
00:33:15,377 --> 00:33:17,257
Speaker 1: mean just I've been kind of feeling this recently. I mean,

689
00:33:17,337 --> 00:33:20,417
Speaker 1: like so much of the discourse on foreign policy is

690
00:33:20,457 --> 00:33:22,937
Speaker 1: like it's all about a morality tale and it's like

691
00:33:23,377 --> 00:33:25,577
Speaker 1: I sometimes wonder, like am I on crazy pills? Because

692
00:33:25,617 --> 00:33:28,857
Speaker 1: like my view is, I'm looking at this and trying

693
00:33:28,897 --> 00:33:31,577
Speaker 1: to figure out what's in the best long term enlightened

694
00:33:31,737 --> 00:33:33,537
Speaker 1: interests of the American people. Like I don't mean to

695
00:33:33,577 --> 00:33:36,417
Speaker 1: be moralistic or whatever about it. I'm saying that's just

696
00:33:36,497 --> 00:33:39,297
Speaker 1: like my frame. So if you're going to advance the

697
00:33:39,337 --> 00:33:41,457
Speaker 1: interest to the American people, like if you're in let's

698
00:33:41,457 --> 00:33:45,057
Speaker 1: say we were the trustee of the the defund of

699
00:33:45,217 --> 00:33:49,417
Speaker 1: the American people, you wouldn't trust an investor who was like,

700
00:33:49,897 --> 00:33:51,497
Speaker 1: oh my gosh, you know we're going to get off

701
00:33:51,577 --> 00:33:53,857
Speaker 1: like a natural gas in like the next five years.

702
00:33:53,897 --> 00:33:56,857
Speaker 1: Like you'd want somebody who actually could ensure that you

703
00:33:57,137 --> 00:33:59,017
Speaker 1: sustain the money so that kids could go to college

704
00:33:59,017 --> 00:34:01,097
Speaker 1: and whatever, and Gramma could retire and so forth. Right,

705
00:34:01,497 --> 00:34:03,497
Speaker 1: So the way you're looking at and the way I

706
00:34:03,577 --> 00:34:06,617
Speaker 1: look at Russia and China is like, well what is there?

707
00:34:06,857 --> 00:34:09,497
Speaker 1: And you know what, ideally how can you make it

708
00:34:09,697 --> 00:34:12,257
Speaker 1: the best? But but ultimately, like you have to accurately

709
00:34:12,297 --> 00:34:15,777
Speaker 1: assess the environment and you were intelligence officer like in

710
00:34:16,017 --> 00:34:19,297
Speaker 1: order to make good policy decisions and so like Putin

711
00:34:19,617 --> 00:34:23,377
Speaker 1: has become a sort of um like like a stock

712
00:34:23,497 --> 00:34:25,617
Speaker 1: character like Paradise loss kind of thing. If we're going

713
00:34:25,657 --> 00:34:27,857
Speaker 1: on the literary route, you know, with Plato and stuff,

714
00:34:27,977 --> 00:34:31,937
Speaker 1: I mean like a morality play like almost, and it's like, well,

715
00:34:32,257 --> 00:34:34,777
Speaker 1: Putin's an evil guy, has done evil things, like no question.

716
00:34:35,257 --> 00:34:38,657
Speaker 1: But your point about the Russians is you know my understanding,

717
00:34:38,737 --> 00:34:40,817
Speaker 1: and I don't improve this. I hope Russia becomes a

718
00:34:40,857 --> 00:34:43,577
Speaker 1: democracy and all that, but like they regard the nineties

719
00:34:43,577 --> 00:34:47,017
Speaker 1: as an epic disaster and whether they like Putin or whatever,

720
00:34:47,337 --> 00:34:50,257
Speaker 1: Russian political culture and humiliating by the way, which to

721
00:34:50,297 --> 00:34:53,457
Speaker 1: the Russian mindset was it even you know they can

722
00:34:53,817 --> 00:34:56,497
Speaker 1: it's worse. I was told this by a Polish friend

723
00:34:56,537 --> 00:34:59,137
Speaker 1: of mine, and I think it was so astute. She

724
00:34:59,217 --> 00:35:00,817
Speaker 1: said to me. One she says, buck, and we're talking

725
00:35:00,857 --> 00:35:03,697
Speaker 1: about Putisdugas buck, would you have to stand is that

726
00:35:03,857 --> 00:35:07,897
Speaker 1: nothing brings the Russians together like suffering. But they're very

727
00:35:08,057 --> 00:35:12,097
Speaker 1: but they're very proud, exactly proud. They've sacrificed a lot.

728
00:35:12,217 --> 00:35:15,337
Speaker 1: That's right, so that they will sacrifice I make it worthwhile,

729
00:35:15,657 --> 00:35:18,457
Speaker 1: that's right. They will sacrifice the right. But if you humiliate,

730
00:35:18,457 --> 00:35:20,937
Speaker 1: you know, but but humiliation to their sense of honor,

731
00:35:21,417 --> 00:35:23,817
Speaker 1: that is, that is the thing that they cannot abide,

732
00:35:24,617 --> 00:35:27,617
Speaker 1: right exactly, and that that's my impression. I'm not a Russian,

733
00:35:27,657 --> 00:35:29,817
Speaker 1: but I mean the interesting thing is the Poles, for instance,

734
00:35:29,897 --> 00:35:32,897
Speaker 1: my general impression, who hate the Russians and are against

735
00:35:32,897 --> 00:35:35,617
Speaker 1: the invasion, they understanding, they're they're they're not. They don't

736
00:35:35,617 --> 00:35:37,977
Speaker 1: have any delusions about the Russians. It's not a surprise

737
00:35:38,057 --> 00:35:39,617
Speaker 1: that the friend who was telling you that as a Pole,

738
00:35:39,777 --> 00:35:41,497
Speaker 1: because they don't they don't have like this idea that

739
00:35:41,537 --> 00:35:43,617
Speaker 1: the Russians are suddenly going to turn over a new

740
00:35:43,697 --> 00:35:45,737
Speaker 1: leaf and become a bunch of flower children. Now on

741
00:35:45,817 --> 00:35:48,177
Speaker 1: the Chinese. I think the point also is just like

742
00:35:48,257 --> 00:35:50,297
Speaker 1: think of the mental map, like you know, people like

743
00:35:50,497 --> 00:35:52,097
Speaker 1: us who grew up I mean my you know, my

744
00:35:52,177 --> 00:35:55,097
Speaker 1: parents with the college whatever, like you know, it was

745
00:35:55,617 --> 00:35:58,857
Speaker 1: some there was the Vietnam and Watergate, but like, come on,

746
00:35:59,217 --> 00:36:03,497
Speaker 1: if you're Chinese and you're in your forties, that means

747
00:36:03,577 --> 00:36:08,657
Speaker 1: your parents went through the uh, the Cultural Revolution, which

748
00:36:08,777 --> 00:36:13,137
Speaker 1: was I mean really insane. I mean mass starvation and

749
00:36:13,537 --> 00:36:16,577
Speaker 1: struggle sessions in public. I think she's paying in their

750
00:36:16,617 --> 00:36:22,217
Speaker 1: own she's in paying himself. Praise mother, I mean family, yep, yeah,

751
00:36:22,577 --> 00:36:25,777
Speaker 1: and so and your parents impossibly you excuse me, your

752
00:36:25,777 --> 00:36:28,777
Speaker 1: grandparents and possibly your parents were there for the Great

753
00:36:28,857 --> 00:36:30,697
Speaker 1: Lead Forward, which in which more people died I think

754
00:36:31,137 --> 00:36:33,217
Speaker 1: than any other event in human history. It's up there

755
00:36:33,577 --> 00:36:36,377
Speaker 1: the civil the Civil War, and Japanese occupation, which any

756
00:36:36,497 --> 00:36:40,537
Speaker 1: one of these is way beyond the conception of Americans

757
00:36:40,937 --> 00:36:42,817
Speaker 1: as to the amount of suffering. You go back into

758
00:36:42,817 --> 00:36:45,457
Speaker 1: the ninth century, go Box, to rebellion, the typing, So

759
00:36:45,537 --> 00:36:49,657
Speaker 1: it's like, this is the scale of disaster and suffering

760
00:36:50,017 --> 00:36:53,777
Speaker 1: is totally different. And they also are very proud, right,

761
00:36:53,897 --> 00:36:56,817
Speaker 1: I mean, they considered themselves traditionally called the Middle Kingdom.

762
00:36:56,857 --> 00:36:58,377
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a little bit of fortune cookie

763
00:36:58,577 --> 00:37:01,377
Speaker 1: analysis on my part, but I think it's fundamentally true,

764
00:37:01,777 --> 00:37:04,177
Speaker 1: which is that they expect to be respected and they

765
00:37:04,257 --> 00:37:05,897
Speaker 1: feel like they put up with a lot. So the

766
00:37:05,977 --> 00:37:08,337
Speaker 1: notion that I mean, there are people in China, I'm

767
00:37:08,377 --> 00:37:10,337
Speaker 1: sure who want to live in a democracy, but the

768
00:37:10,457 --> 00:37:13,017
Speaker 1: question is do they have the power, do they have

769
00:37:13,137 --> 00:37:14,857
Speaker 1: the courage? And what I mean to say that in

770
00:37:14,937 --> 00:37:17,577
Speaker 1: a moralistic way, like I don't I mean the people,

771
00:37:17,577 --> 00:37:21,017
Speaker 1: for instance, who protested against the COVID stuff, who knows

772
00:37:21,097 --> 00:37:23,377
Speaker 1: what happened to them? And to throw your life away

773
00:37:23,417 --> 00:37:26,177
Speaker 1: in futility is I mean, that's a lot. But I

774
00:37:26,257 --> 00:37:27,697
Speaker 1: think you're right. I mean, this is the way we

775
00:37:27,777 --> 00:37:29,417
Speaker 1: need to look at them, and then we need to

776
00:37:29,497 --> 00:37:32,577
Speaker 1: try to push them in the direction. That's that's that's

777
00:37:32,657 --> 00:37:36,217
Speaker 1: most most practical. And in the fact that the fact

778
00:37:36,257 --> 00:37:41,577
Speaker 1: that the premier of China, Shijunping, was denounced by his

779
00:37:41,697 --> 00:37:44,697
Speaker 1: own mother as part of the culture revolution struggle sessions

780
00:37:44,697 --> 00:37:48,137
Speaker 1: we're talking about, and his half sister was essentially persecuted

781
00:37:48,217 --> 00:37:52,537
Speaker 1: to death by mobs saying that she was disloyal, and

782
00:37:52,657 --> 00:37:55,297
Speaker 1: she lived in a cave for a while to try

783
00:37:55,337 --> 00:38:00,537
Speaker 1: to flee, Yeah, try to flee the Maoist revolution. I

784
00:38:00,617 --> 00:38:03,417
Speaker 1: mean literally, this guy lived in a cave to avoid

785
00:38:03,537 --> 00:38:06,577
Speaker 1: further persecution and murder of his own family by the

786
00:38:06,657 --> 00:38:09,177
Speaker 1: communist system that he now leads. I mean, so you

787
00:38:09,297 --> 00:38:11,257
Speaker 1: try to get into this ecology a little bit of

788
00:38:11,417 --> 00:38:13,817
Speaker 1: the people that are making the decisions here, and that's

789
00:38:14,017 --> 00:38:16,177
Speaker 1: just on this. I was looking into this, and I mean,

790
00:38:16,257 --> 00:38:18,537
Speaker 1: this is deeply rooted in the Leninist party system. And

791
00:38:18,577 --> 00:38:20,737
Speaker 1: by the way, the Nationalists also had this element. I mean,

792
00:38:20,777 --> 00:38:24,057
Speaker 1: the amount of suffering and sacrifice and brutality that's just

793
00:38:24,217 --> 00:38:26,137
Speaker 1: built in. That's like in the warp and woof of

794
00:38:26,177 --> 00:38:28,217
Speaker 1: the political culture there. There's an expression. I used to

795
00:38:28,217 --> 00:38:30,457
Speaker 1: go to China and people would say, there's an anaconda

796
00:38:30,497 --> 00:38:33,017
Speaker 1: wrapped around every chandelier in these nice rooms, that there's

797
00:38:33,057 --> 00:38:37,217
Speaker 1: this like looming menace and potential for violence and death

798
00:38:37,297 --> 00:38:40,377
Speaker 1: that we just we just discount. Thank God for our

799
00:38:40,497 --> 00:38:42,337
Speaker 1: for our own fortune. But that's the kind of thing

800
00:38:42,377 --> 00:38:46,377
Speaker 1: we're dealing with. I mean, the the Holidamor, which I

801
00:38:46,457 --> 00:38:48,857
Speaker 1: think now gets people just have done a lot more

802
00:38:49,017 --> 00:38:52,657
Speaker 1: Ukraine thinking and research for obvious reasons, so people know

803
00:38:52,697 --> 00:38:57,417
Speaker 1: more about the Holidomore, the four starvation of millions of

804
00:38:57,817 --> 00:39:01,937
Speaker 1: Ukrainians by the Soviets and what happened there, but it's

805
00:39:01,977 --> 00:39:05,257
Speaker 1: still not known, not that well known, I think relative

806
00:39:05,337 --> 00:39:08,897
Speaker 1: to the level of atrocity in the twentieth century. But

807
00:39:09,097 --> 00:39:12,897
Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party and the mass starvation and the

808
00:39:13,017 --> 00:39:17,257
Speaker 1: Great Famine which occurred to your point within memory of

809
00:39:17,457 --> 00:39:20,537
Speaker 1: grandparents of people right now, right, I mean you could

810
00:39:20,537 --> 00:39:23,817
Speaker 1: have been of a generation where your parents, um, you know,

811
00:39:24,177 --> 00:39:27,697
Speaker 1: rather our our grandparents geration, I mean our grandparents, your

812
00:39:27,857 --> 00:39:31,977
Speaker 1: parents would have been alive children, right right. So yeah,

813
00:39:32,497 --> 00:39:37,017
Speaker 1: so that just shows how recent this was and how

814
00:39:37,337 --> 00:39:40,417
Speaker 1: tens of millions of people died. Tens of millions of

815
00:39:40,497 --> 00:39:43,577
Speaker 1: people died. I think the I mean the estimate about

816
00:39:43,617 --> 00:39:46,177
Speaker 1: twenty I think twenty to forty is usually what they say,

817
00:39:46,337 --> 00:39:49,137
Speaker 1: right exactly, Yeah, I mean, but yeah, and that's only

818
00:39:49,177 --> 00:39:51,177
Speaker 1: one event. I mean the Civil War, and I mean

819
00:39:51,337 --> 00:39:53,897
Speaker 1: and the Civil War. I threw this example on the Twitter.

820
00:39:54,217 --> 00:39:58,337
Speaker 1: But like the PLA, the Communist Party army, while they

821
00:39:58,337 --> 00:39:59,737
Speaker 1: were towards the end of the Civil War, there's a

822
00:39:59,817 --> 00:40:04,177
Speaker 1: nationalist I mean, they really fought hard. But the Communist

823
00:40:04,297 --> 00:40:08,337
Speaker 1: army besieged an important city in Manchuria, and they said

824
00:40:08,537 --> 00:40:13,097
Speaker 1: we will let nationalist soldiers out surrender basically, but not civilians.

825
00:40:13,137 --> 00:40:15,257
Speaker 1: Even if civilians wanted to get out, they're not allowed

826
00:40:15,257 --> 00:40:18,097
Speaker 1: out because it put more pressure on the food situation

827
00:40:18,217 --> 00:40:20,257
Speaker 1: inside the city. So you know, hundreds, I don't know,

828
00:40:20,337 --> 00:40:23,537
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of maybe over one hundred thousand civilians died.

829
00:40:23,617 --> 00:40:28,617
Speaker 1: And that's just one particularly famous incident. There's a tragedy

830
00:40:28,697 --> 00:40:31,417
Speaker 1: to it, too deep Listen to the whole propaganda campaign.

831
00:40:31,737 --> 00:40:33,297
Speaker 1: It's amaze by the way people go back and look

832
00:40:33,297 --> 00:40:35,097
Speaker 1: at some of this stuff and you realize that this

833
00:40:35,217 --> 00:40:36,897
Speaker 1: is in the middle of the twentieth century. This is

834
00:40:36,937 --> 00:40:39,417
Speaker 1: not a long long time ago. I think. Wasn't there

835
00:40:39,457 --> 00:40:42,377
Speaker 1: the sparrows campaign where they convinced people that the grain

836
00:40:42,497 --> 00:40:46,777
Speaker 1: shortage there was an acute grain shortage because the sparrows

837
00:40:46,977 --> 00:40:50,297
Speaker 1: were eating too much grain. And so they went out

838
00:40:50,337 --> 00:40:52,577
Speaker 1: and started they started telling villagers to go kill the

839
00:40:52,657 --> 00:40:55,177
Speaker 1: sparrows because you know, these little birds that were all

840
00:40:55,217 --> 00:40:57,697
Speaker 1: over the place. And then they actually, I believe that

841
00:40:57,857 --> 00:40:59,657
Speaker 1: at least this is maybe this is something of a

842
00:40:59,817 --> 00:41:02,297
Speaker 1: of a you know, urban legend at this point. But

843
00:41:02,417 --> 00:41:05,457
Speaker 1: then they they killed a lot of these birds, and

844
00:41:05,657 --> 00:41:09,297
Speaker 1: then there was locusts or some other invasive species that

845
00:41:09,497 --> 00:41:12,537
Speaker 1: made it even worse than a point being they created

846
00:41:12,697 --> 00:41:15,697
Speaker 1: all kinds of new ways to make a miserable situation

847
00:41:15,737 --> 00:41:18,257
Speaker 1: even more miserable, and there was never any none of them.

848
00:41:18,337 --> 00:41:22,537
Speaker 1: Was there no political accountability for this. They're still in charge,

849
00:41:22,697 --> 00:41:25,497
Speaker 1: I mean effectively the same. The system is still in charge.

850
00:41:25,537 --> 00:41:28,457
Speaker 1: And so we're dealing with just a much wealthier version

851
00:41:28,817 --> 00:41:32,577
Speaker 1: of a system that presided over catastrophe, mass starvation, and

852
00:41:33,257 --> 00:41:37,497
Speaker 1: repression on a scale that reaches the worst depths of

853
00:41:37,537 --> 00:41:40,177
Speaker 1: what we saw through in the twentieth century. And now

854
00:41:40,257 --> 00:41:42,337
Speaker 1: we have Chijanping and they've got nukes and they want

855
00:41:42,337 --> 00:41:44,937
Speaker 1: to go after Taiwan. So it feels like a rough situation.

856
00:41:45,137 --> 00:41:52,417
Speaker 1: What is your what's the most positive view of how

857
00:41:52,577 --> 00:41:54,777
Speaker 1: this is going to play out between US and China,

858
00:41:54,937 --> 00:41:57,697
Speaker 1: say over the next five to ten years, Like, what's

859
00:41:57,737 --> 00:42:01,297
Speaker 1: the we get it right and handle them in a

860
00:42:01,417 --> 00:42:04,817
Speaker 1: way that shows some dexterity on the US and an

861
00:42:04,857 --> 00:42:08,297
Speaker 1: allied part so that it may not sound like it,

862
00:42:08,377 --> 00:42:10,737
Speaker 1: but in a way I'm kind of optimistic relative to

863
00:42:10,857 --> 00:42:13,137
Speaker 1: some people on the China issue because I think a

864
00:42:13,217 --> 00:42:15,257
Speaker 1: lot of this just boils down to the military balance,

865
00:42:15,897 --> 00:42:18,217
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of talk and there's sort of

866
00:42:18,257 --> 00:42:21,137
Speaker 1: the sophisticated fancy views like this is as much an

867
00:42:21,177 --> 00:42:24,537
Speaker 1: economic and ideological and societal competition in YadA, YadA, YadA.

868
00:42:24,697 --> 00:42:26,977
Speaker 1: I actually don't think that's really true. I think what

869
00:42:27,097 --> 00:42:29,577
Speaker 1: we're seeing is the United States itself, but many other

870
00:42:29,617 --> 00:42:32,257
Speaker 1: countries diversifying away from China. I think we're going to

871
00:42:32,337 --> 00:42:35,017
Speaker 1: continue trading with China, but people now know, Hey, I

872
00:42:35,057 --> 00:42:37,257
Speaker 1: don't want to have all my set amnifin or ibuprofen

873
00:42:37,337 --> 00:42:40,137
Speaker 1: or penicillan made in China, right, So that's that's gonna

874
00:42:40,137 --> 00:42:41,857
Speaker 1: take place, right, and the Chinese are going to have

875
00:42:41,937 --> 00:42:44,537
Speaker 1: difficulty using their economic leverage or they don't have any

876
00:42:44,577 --> 00:42:47,257
Speaker 1: soft power. Nobody wants to like turn into the society, right,

877
00:42:47,617 --> 00:42:52,137
Speaker 1: so like they don't, they're gonna find it difficult to say, hey, Taiwan,

878
00:42:52,737 --> 00:42:55,337
Speaker 1: give up and fall under our shadow, or else we're

879
00:42:55,337 --> 00:42:58,417
Speaker 1: gonna cut off you know, your iPhones, like it doesn't work,

880
00:42:58,497 --> 00:43:00,457
Speaker 1: and they've tried it. They're trying in Australia. It's not working.

881
00:43:00,577 --> 00:43:02,617
Speaker 1: So that's actually that makes me more sanguine. That's partially

882
00:43:02,657 --> 00:43:04,537
Speaker 1: our own experience. I mean, you saw this when you're

883
00:43:04,577 --> 00:43:06,897
Speaker 1: in the government. Our sanctions don't work that well. I

884
00:43:06,937 --> 00:43:08,817
Speaker 1: mean they're not even working that well against the Russians

885
00:43:08,897 --> 00:43:13,257
Speaker 1: right now, find is a talking point for diplomacy, so

886
00:43:13,457 --> 00:43:17,257
Speaker 1: it doesn't look toothless. Basically, that's generally what in class.

887
00:43:17,537 --> 00:43:20,057
Speaker 1: It's what they understand. It's it's easy to use. The

888
00:43:20,137 --> 00:43:22,497
Speaker 1: Congress can pass it. What that means though, is the

889
00:43:22,577 --> 00:43:26,857
Speaker 1: military piece. They war and aggression can work though war

890
00:43:27,017 --> 00:43:30,337
Speaker 1: can pay. I mean, the reason California and Texas and

891
00:43:30,417 --> 00:43:33,097
Speaker 1: the southwestern states are American is because of a successful

892
00:43:33,137 --> 00:43:36,337
Speaker 1: aggressive war. Right, so that can work. But if we

893
00:43:36,497 --> 00:43:39,937
Speaker 1: get that right, I actually think will be okay because

894
00:43:39,977 --> 00:43:41,817
Speaker 1: the Chinese then will have an incentive. As much as

895
00:43:41,817 --> 00:43:43,737
Speaker 1: they would love to dominate the world, they're not going

896
00:43:43,777 --> 00:43:45,337
Speaker 1: to have a plausible route to do it, and they'll

897
00:43:45,337 --> 00:43:47,297
Speaker 1: be forced to deal. And I do like to keep

898
00:43:47,297 --> 00:43:51,057
Speaker 1: it simple stupid, you know. Yeah, there has been a recognition.

899
00:43:51,497 --> 00:43:52,977
Speaker 1: One of the things I always say that Trump does

900
00:43:52,977 --> 00:43:55,697
Speaker 1: not getting nearly enough credit for is that with very

901
00:43:55,737 --> 00:43:59,737
Speaker 1: few exceptions, I knew a few super trade policy nerds

902
00:43:59,977 --> 00:44:02,937
Speaker 1: who even early in the Trump administration, you know, outside

903
00:44:02,977 --> 00:44:05,977
Speaker 1: of the administration, but people just out there we're saying, no,

904
00:44:06,137 --> 00:44:08,377
Speaker 1: he's actually right about the China thing, like we have

905
00:44:08,497 --> 00:44:10,697
Speaker 1: to do something. We're just in a one way hundred

906
00:44:10,737 --> 00:44:12,737
Speaker 1: years that's going to be the thing, you know, China,

907
00:44:12,857 --> 00:44:15,777
Speaker 1: and you had to call it out in an adversarial

908
00:44:15,817 --> 00:44:18,577
Speaker 1: way because otherwise it was just fluff and it was

909
00:44:18,857 --> 00:44:20,617
Speaker 1: a one way trade war already. You know, you could

910
00:44:20,657 --> 00:44:23,417
Speaker 1: either recognize what was going on, or you could just

911
00:44:23,537 --> 00:44:25,097
Speaker 1: keep saying, no, we don't want to rock the boat.

912
00:44:25,097 --> 00:44:26,817
Speaker 1: It's like they're rocking the boat all over the place.

913
00:44:26,857 --> 00:44:32,057
Speaker 1: So Trump, for his all of his pugnacious uh inclinations,

914
00:44:32,697 --> 00:44:34,737
Speaker 1: was I think spot on on that. And you know

915
00:44:34,857 --> 00:44:38,337
Speaker 1: this because the Biden administration has basically continued and with

916
00:44:38,457 --> 00:44:40,937
Speaker 1: the with the Trump policies with regard to China, and

917
00:44:41,097 --> 00:44:43,737
Speaker 1: he did that over the Oh, trade wars lead to

918
00:44:43,777 --> 00:44:45,457
Speaker 1: real wars. A lot of people on the right were

919
00:44:45,657 --> 00:44:48,017
Speaker 1: very oh my gosh, he's he's amaniac on this. Yey.

920
00:44:48,017 --> 00:44:49,777
Speaker 1: He was totally right on that. But I think it's

921
00:44:49,777 --> 00:44:52,777
Speaker 1: also forced a I mean, and I want to ask you,

922
00:44:52,817 --> 00:44:55,217
Speaker 1: do you think we've reached the point of enough of

923
00:44:55,257 --> 00:45:01,537
Speaker 1: an understanding that domestic industry, especially for things like silicon chips,

924
00:45:01,737 --> 00:45:04,537
Speaker 1: things that we need, you know, um, that we have

925
00:45:04,657 --> 00:45:07,777
Speaker 1: to have it here, actually that outsourcing production to a

926
00:45:08,297 --> 00:45:11,777
Speaker 1: more developing economy to the degree that if they shut

927
00:45:11,817 --> 00:45:16,097
Speaker 1: off their supply, We're screwed. That's not a good plan. Well,

928
00:45:16,137 --> 00:45:18,497
Speaker 1: I hope. So, I mean again, then that gets back

929
00:45:18,497 --> 00:45:20,977
Speaker 1: to that can we outcompete China if they're doing, as

930
00:45:21,017 --> 00:45:23,137
Speaker 1: you say, one way trade war. I think that's exactly right.

931
00:45:23,297 --> 00:45:25,497
Speaker 1: So no, I mean, I think we can maintain summer

932
00:45:25,537 --> 00:45:28,057
Speaker 1: lines there, but I think we should totally come bring

933
00:45:28,377 --> 00:45:30,417
Speaker 1: stuff back home. I think some of it is going

934
00:45:30,497 --> 00:45:32,857
Speaker 1: to these supply chains, from what I can tell, are

935
00:45:32,897 --> 00:45:34,937
Speaker 1: so complex. We're not going to bring the whole thing back,

936
00:45:35,297 --> 00:45:37,097
Speaker 1: but it's more a matter of degree. We're going to

937
00:45:37,177 --> 00:45:39,337
Speaker 1: bring more stuff back. And that's good for I think

938
00:45:39,377 --> 00:45:41,817
Speaker 1: the kind of objectives that many across the political spectrum.

939
00:45:41,857 --> 00:45:43,257
Speaker 1: I mean, people like us I think on the right,

940
00:45:43,297 --> 00:45:45,017
Speaker 1: but you know the Rokannas of the world that Matt

941
00:45:45,057 --> 00:45:47,257
Speaker 1: Stoller's on the left also want people to have good

942
00:45:47,337 --> 00:45:49,017
Speaker 1: jobs and be able to support families and all that

943
00:45:49,097 --> 00:45:50,977
Speaker 1: war and cast all that kind of thing. So that's good.

944
00:45:51,137 --> 00:45:54,057
Speaker 1: The other thing that is really necessary in this front is,

945
00:45:54,137 --> 00:45:56,017
Speaker 1: if I'm right, that you really got to get the

946
00:45:56,057 --> 00:45:57,937
Speaker 1: military balance right. And by the way, that's another area

947
00:45:57,977 --> 00:46:00,457
Speaker 1: where the Bide administration has been continuing. The Trump administration

948
00:46:00,577 --> 00:46:02,217
Speaker 1: and I have to admit in some ways they're doing

949
00:46:02,257 --> 00:46:03,777
Speaker 1: a better job. I mean, I kind of hate to

950
00:46:03,817 --> 00:46:06,217
Speaker 1: admit it. But in terms of actually implementing that they're

951
00:46:06,257 --> 00:46:07,937
Speaker 1: carrying it forward, they're not going as fast as I

952
00:46:07,937 --> 00:46:10,817
Speaker 1: would want and with the urgent see in focus that

953
00:46:10,857 --> 00:46:12,777
Speaker 1: I would want. But I can't deny that they actually

954
00:46:12,777 --> 00:46:15,057
Speaker 1: are moving forward. What I would say is we need

955
00:46:15,137 --> 00:46:18,697
Speaker 1: a defense industrial base that can produce at scale and quickly.

956
00:46:18,737 --> 00:46:20,617
Speaker 1: We don't have it, and that's got to be at

957
00:46:20,657 --> 00:46:23,337
Speaker 1: home or in really trusted places, you know, I mean

958
00:46:23,377 --> 00:46:26,577
Speaker 1: Australia or Canada or whatever. By the way, I just

959
00:46:26,737 --> 00:46:28,217
Speaker 1: wanted to look it up because I was trying to

960
00:46:28,217 --> 00:46:29,897
Speaker 1: remember the name because I thought that would that would

961
00:46:29,937 --> 00:46:33,057
Speaker 1: trigger more remembrance of us. Yes, it was. It was

962
00:46:33,297 --> 00:46:36,377
Speaker 1: great lead Forward, so not really Cultural Revolution era. Great

963
00:46:36,417 --> 00:46:39,377
Speaker 1: lead forward, though. There was the four Pests campaign and

964
00:46:39,497 --> 00:46:44,737
Speaker 1: there are these unbelievable posters that that existed in Maoist

965
00:46:44,817 --> 00:46:49,457
Speaker 1: China of the menace of the sparrow. It was sparrows, mosquitos,

966
00:46:50,177 --> 00:46:54,977
Speaker 1: rats and flies. And so they actually decided to and

967
00:46:55,097 --> 00:46:57,337
Speaker 1: this is because obviously the grain harvests were way down.

968
00:46:57,337 --> 00:46:58,897
Speaker 1: They didn't have enough food for everybody. So this is

969
00:46:58,977 --> 00:47:02,257
Speaker 1: leading into the Great Famine. They decided to go on

970
00:47:02,337 --> 00:47:05,737
Speaker 1: this mass extermination campaign of the Eurasian tree sparrow, which is,

971
00:47:05,777 --> 00:47:08,217
Speaker 1: you know, like pigeons and sparrows in America, very very

972
00:47:08,217 --> 00:47:11,137
Speaker 1: common at China, and they killed so many of the

973
00:47:11,177 --> 00:47:14,417
Speaker 1: sparrows that the locust population boomed and they had locust plates.

974
00:47:14,537 --> 00:47:18,057
Speaker 1: This actually happened, so that gives you a sense of it.

975
00:47:18,257 --> 00:47:21,577
Speaker 1: It's kind of yeah, it's it's the maoist Chinese version

976
00:47:21,657 --> 00:47:24,497
Speaker 1: of you. You know this book. I mean, I was

977
00:47:24,497 --> 00:47:26,337
Speaker 1: gonna say it's academic, but you know, that's that's your

978
00:47:26,377 --> 00:47:29,337
Speaker 1: wheelhouse of seeing. Like a state by the guy at Yale,

979
00:47:29,417 --> 00:47:32,777
Speaker 1: where he just goes through it's very dry, but he

980
00:47:32,897 --> 00:47:37,297
Speaker 1: goes through these different occasions where you get historically, these

981
00:47:37,377 --> 00:47:39,577
Speaker 1: world class experts to just come up with a plan

982
00:47:39,737 --> 00:47:43,257
Speaker 1: to like completely revolutionized, not in the crazy way we

983
00:47:43,337 --> 00:47:44,977
Speaker 1: saw in the Soviet Union in China where it was

984
00:47:44,977 --> 00:47:48,697
Speaker 1: absolute catastrophe, because by the way, those weren't experts, you know,

985
00:47:48,777 --> 00:47:52,337
Speaker 1: these are these were the thuggish commissars who who couldn't add,

986
00:47:52,377 --> 00:47:53,817
Speaker 1: who are like, yeah, let's just like melt all the

987
00:47:53,857 --> 00:47:57,817
Speaker 1: plowshares um. But in the case of German one of

988
00:47:57,857 --> 00:48:00,337
Speaker 1: the one of the case studies is German forestry. And

989
00:48:00,457 --> 00:48:02,577
Speaker 1: I think the way I know this is super This

990
00:48:02,657 --> 00:48:04,537
Speaker 1: is where we get to the sexy stuff on this podcast,

991
00:48:04,577 --> 00:48:08,137
Speaker 1: wherever it's like, yeah, sign you up. German forestry in

992
00:48:08,297 --> 00:48:10,977
Speaker 1: I think it was the mid nineteenth cent tree and

993
00:48:11,497 --> 00:48:14,817
Speaker 1: they they decided they had this whole campaign, you know,

994
00:48:14,937 --> 00:48:18,217
Speaker 1: across you know, the German States, but this idea caught

995
00:48:18,257 --> 00:48:20,337
Speaker 1: hold in Germany of you need to plant one kind

996
00:48:20,377 --> 00:48:24,337
Speaker 1: of tree symmetrically in rows in a way that will

997
00:48:24,417 --> 00:48:26,897
Speaker 1: increase the yield, and you know, and this is basically

998
00:48:27,217 --> 00:48:30,857
Speaker 1: mathematize and systematize the planting of trees. And they had

999
00:48:30,897 --> 00:48:33,297
Speaker 1: this whole thing, and what they didn't realize is that

1000
00:48:33,537 --> 00:48:35,497
Speaker 1: made them if you get one kind of pest for

1001
00:48:35,577 --> 00:48:38,617
Speaker 1: that tree, you are screwed. If you don't have underbrush,

1002
00:48:38,857 --> 00:48:40,817
Speaker 1: if you don't have you know, you don't have the

1003
00:48:40,897 --> 00:48:43,537
Speaker 1: other plant. Anyway. It was a total and utter disaster.

1004
00:48:44,017 --> 00:48:47,497
Speaker 1: And the smartest people in forest stry management in the

1005
00:48:47,537 --> 00:48:49,217
Speaker 1: world at that time thought this is gonna be a

1006
00:48:49,297 --> 00:48:51,377
Speaker 1: great idea. So that's what that book goes into, which

1007
00:48:51,377 --> 00:48:53,057
Speaker 1: I always thought was so interesting to be Oh, the maoist.

1008
00:48:53,977 --> 00:48:57,297
Speaker 1: Some of the maoist propaganda posers about the Sparrows military.

1009
00:48:57,337 --> 00:48:59,057
Speaker 1: I want to go back to US military for a second.

1010
00:49:00,937 --> 00:49:04,097
Speaker 1: What are what do we need to do differently than

1011
00:49:04,137 --> 00:49:06,577
Speaker 1: what is being done right now to prepare for the

1012
00:49:06,697 --> 00:49:08,857
Speaker 1: next one? I mean, the biggest cliche we're talking about

1013
00:49:08,897 --> 00:49:14,137
Speaker 1: military strategy. You know, whether you're from from Clouds Wits

1014
00:49:14,177 --> 00:49:16,617
Speaker 1: the Mike Tyson, everybody has a plan until they're punched

1015
00:49:16,617 --> 00:49:18,297
Speaker 1: in the face, right. I mean, the biggest cliche I

1016
00:49:18,377 --> 00:49:20,937
Speaker 1: think of all is you know, everyone's always preparing to

1017
00:49:20,977 --> 00:49:23,897
Speaker 1: fight the last war. So we know we're not going

1018
00:49:23,977 --> 00:49:27,297
Speaker 1: to be doing low intensity counterinsurgency operations as the primary

1019
00:49:27,537 --> 00:49:31,177
Speaker 1: US national security focus for the next twenty years. We

1020
00:49:31,257 --> 00:49:32,977
Speaker 1: just because we're not going to do it right, That's

1021
00:49:32,977 --> 00:49:34,857
Speaker 1: just not how we might pay somebody else to do it.

1022
00:49:35,097 --> 00:49:37,177
Speaker 1: We might. Yeah, I certainly hope that that's actually a

1023
00:49:37,217 --> 00:49:39,337
Speaker 1: better that's a better way of putting it. What do

1024
00:49:39,417 --> 00:49:42,257
Speaker 1: we need to do to prepare for the actual situations

1025
00:49:42,297 --> 00:49:44,897
Speaker 1: we're seeing? For example, I mean Russia Ukraine. The possibility

1026
00:49:44,897 --> 00:49:47,817
Speaker 1: of that spiraling is I think low, but it is

1027
00:49:47,897 --> 00:49:50,057
Speaker 1: it does exist. What do we need to do differently

1028
00:49:50,097 --> 00:49:54,457
Speaker 1: from military preparedness standpoint? So I actually think we're not

1029
00:49:54,577 --> 00:49:56,817
Speaker 1: preparing for the last war. We're preparing for what we

1030
00:49:56,937 --> 00:49:59,417
Speaker 1: think the next war will be. I mean, and we

1031
00:49:59,577 --> 00:50:01,657
Speaker 1: in the in the Trump administration, we shifted the focus

1032
00:50:01,737 --> 00:50:03,977
Speaker 1: to China and more folks on Taiwan, and they've carried

1033
00:50:03,977 --> 00:50:06,817
Speaker 1: that forward and in a lot of ways intensified it

1034
00:50:06,937 --> 00:50:10,697
Speaker 1: under this administration. So, um, there is a lot bureaucracy

1035
00:50:10,777 --> 00:50:12,977
Speaker 1: and tail inershia blah blah blah. That's all what I

1036
00:50:13,017 --> 00:50:15,457
Speaker 1: would say. The bottom line is is I think it's

1037
00:50:15,457 --> 00:50:18,857
Speaker 1: a matter of scale and urgency. So here's the analogy

1038
00:50:18,937 --> 00:50:22,057
Speaker 1: that I use. You know, you've gotten a diagnosis from

1039
00:50:22,097 --> 00:50:24,537
Speaker 1: your doctor that you're acute heart disease and you need

1040
00:50:24,577 --> 00:50:27,217
Speaker 1: to lose a lot of weight and otherwise you're you know,

1041
00:50:27,297 --> 00:50:30,497
Speaker 1: you're you're potentially going to croak, and we are you know,

1042
00:50:30,577 --> 00:50:33,177
Speaker 1: you basically have said I'm going to do the diet.

1043
00:50:33,417 --> 00:50:35,577
Speaker 1: I'm doing a diet. I cut out, you know, my

1044
00:50:35,857 --> 00:50:39,297
Speaker 1: dessert after lunch, but I'm still having some icecream after dinner.

1045
00:50:39,337 --> 00:50:40,937
Speaker 1: And I'm meaning the French friends and it's like this

1046
00:50:41,057 --> 00:50:44,097
Speaker 1: sounds like my diet, by the way, butever, well, I mean,

1047
00:50:44,137 --> 00:50:45,697
Speaker 1: that's the thing I actually been thinking about it, because

1048
00:50:45,697 --> 00:50:47,697
Speaker 1: it's like I'm trying to think of the theory of change,

1049
00:50:47,697 --> 00:50:50,577
Speaker 1: because fundamentally like getting back to that fifty percent or

1050
00:50:50,617 --> 00:50:53,417
Speaker 1: forty five percent. Like there is a war game that

1051
00:50:53,617 --> 00:50:55,337
Speaker 1: was done that got a lot of press recently by

1052
00:50:55,377 --> 00:50:57,337
Speaker 1: the Center First Strategic International Studies, and I had some

1053
00:50:57,417 --> 00:50:59,777
Speaker 1: problems with it. I think it was too confident in

1054
00:50:59,857 --> 00:51:02,777
Speaker 1: our ability. Mostly classified wargaming by their own emission is

1055
00:51:02,857 --> 00:51:06,017
Speaker 1: more is more pessimistic. But you know, even they in

1056
00:51:06,097 --> 00:51:08,697
Speaker 1: this optimistics that it would be an absolute slug fest.

1057
00:51:08,737 --> 00:51:11,777
Speaker 1: We'd lose more people and things then we've lost since

1058
00:51:12,137 --> 00:51:14,417
Speaker 1: since World War Two. And so my feeling is like, well,

1059
00:51:14,457 --> 00:51:16,417
Speaker 1: why are we even getting close to that? Why are

1060
00:51:16,457 --> 00:51:18,617
Speaker 1: we even why are we even getting close to that point?

1061
00:51:18,937 --> 00:51:21,377
Speaker 1: And people say, you know, for our defense industrial base

1062
00:51:21,457 --> 00:51:24,537
Speaker 1: is too slow, or we can't you know, reduce forces

1063
00:51:24,577 --> 00:51:26,497
Speaker 1: in Europe while the Ukraine War, we can't reduce force

1064
00:51:26,537 --> 00:51:27,857
Speaker 1: in the Sime Common It's like, well, wait, isn't this

1065
00:51:27,937 --> 00:51:31,417
Speaker 1: our priority? You know, the the the the Chinese are

1066
00:51:31,417 --> 00:51:33,297
Speaker 1: the one who are the heart attack. These other things

1067
00:51:33,337 --> 00:51:35,897
Speaker 1: are like you know, stub toe or I mean worse

1068
00:51:35,937 --> 00:51:38,577
Speaker 1: than that. Maybe they're a broken bone, but that's the

1069
00:51:38,657 --> 00:51:40,377
Speaker 1: problem that we have to fix and if there's something,

1070
00:51:40,457 --> 00:51:42,817
Speaker 1: if there's a problem with fixing it, if there's a

1071
00:51:42,897 --> 00:51:45,737
Speaker 1: fundamental issue, for instance, the defense industrial base, we need

1072
00:51:45,737 --> 00:51:48,617
Speaker 1: to produce more ammunitions. It's obvious. So the administration is saying, Okay,

1073
00:51:48,617 --> 00:51:51,577
Speaker 1: we're going to authorize the defense primes to get multiyear contracts. Oh,

1074
00:51:51,617 --> 00:51:54,697
Speaker 1: that's probably part of it, but obviously the whole model

1075
00:51:54,777 --> 00:51:57,177
Speaker 1: is insufficient. If this is where we are now, so

1076
00:51:57,337 --> 00:52:00,057
Speaker 1: why doesn't the President get on national television and say

1077
00:52:00,057 --> 00:52:01,577
Speaker 1: here's what we need? And I'm another sign these are

1078
00:52:01,577 --> 00:52:03,897
Speaker 1: the executive words. He's willing to do it over Ukraine.

1079
00:52:04,337 --> 00:52:06,337
Speaker 1: You know, our congressional leadership, a lot of them are

1080
00:52:06,377 --> 00:52:08,177
Speaker 1: willing to do over Ukraine. Why don't we do it

1081
00:52:08,257 --> 00:52:10,937
Speaker 1: over over China? That's so much more important. So that

1082
00:52:11,177 --> 00:52:12,857
Speaker 1: is the kind of that I think is the It's

1083
00:52:12,897 --> 00:52:16,577
Speaker 1: not that we're doing the wrong things. You know the specifics,

1084
00:52:16,937 --> 00:52:18,777
Speaker 1: and I mean, you can argue, but nobody really knows

1085
00:52:18,857 --> 00:52:20,697
Speaker 1: how a war like that would what the You know,

1086
00:52:20,777 --> 00:52:23,937
Speaker 1: we probably we need more anti ship missiles, that's an obvious.

1087
00:52:24,097 --> 00:52:27,377
Speaker 1: We need more targeting apparatus, space and air breeding, et cetera. Yes,

1088
00:52:27,457 --> 00:52:31,097
Speaker 1: we know that but but that's not solved in micro movements.

1089
00:52:31,177 --> 00:52:33,097
Speaker 1: We've made the kind of movements we can. We now

1090
00:52:33,217 --> 00:52:36,377
Speaker 1: need to have fundamental muscle movements, and that requires political will.

1091
00:52:36,897 --> 00:52:40,377
Speaker 1: What worries you, and maybe this would be or you know,

1092
00:52:40,897 --> 00:52:42,617
Speaker 1: when we're wrapping up here with you in a couple

1093
00:52:42,657 --> 00:52:46,617
Speaker 1: of minutes, but what worries you such that if you

1094
00:52:46,737 --> 00:52:53,057
Speaker 1: had the attention of the Biden apparatus, right, so Joe Biden,

1095
00:52:53,097 --> 00:52:54,857
Speaker 1: but really also the people around him who are making

1096
00:52:55,057 --> 00:52:57,897
Speaker 1: more of the national security decisions. However that shakes out

1097
00:52:58,777 --> 00:53:03,457
Speaker 1: not China, Russia, Ukraine or military preparedness. We've talked about that,

1098
00:53:03,497 --> 00:53:05,137
Speaker 1: but if if they if there was something else that

1099
00:53:05,177 --> 00:53:08,577
Speaker 1: you're gonna say, you really need to pay attention to.

1100
00:53:09,057 --> 00:53:11,297
Speaker 1: And this is about what's for the country. This isn't

1101
00:53:11,377 --> 00:53:13,977
Speaker 1: some you know, partisan shot in the ribs when old

1102
00:53:14,057 --> 00:53:16,897
Speaker 1: man Joe's not paying attention. Is there anything that comes

1103
00:53:16,937 --> 00:53:18,617
Speaker 1: to mind for you? Is there anything where you're like,

1104
00:53:19,097 --> 00:53:22,737
Speaker 1: I worry about what can happen or what will happen

1105
00:53:22,777 --> 00:53:26,137
Speaker 1: in this area, on this issue or in this realm.

1106
00:53:26,337 --> 00:53:28,417
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the you know, the biggest ones we've

1107
00:53:28,417 --> 00:53:31,377
Speaker 1: already hit China, Russia, Ukraine and I think just general

1108
00:53:31,417 --> 00:53:33,337
Speaker 1: military preparatness. But is there anything you know or are

1109
00:53:33,377 --> 00:53:37,377
Speaker 1: you worried about something happening with Iran going nuclear? You

1110
00:53:37,457 --> 00:53:39,737
Speaker 1: worried about the cartels and what it could mean just

1111
00:53:39,857 --> 00:53:42,297
Speaker 1: for you know, destabilization along the border. I mean, you

1112
00:53:42,617 --> 00:53:44,977
Speaker 1: tell me, but is there anything what would you be like? Guys,

1113
00:53:45,057 --> 00:53:46,537
Speaker 1: we need we need to spend some time on this.

1114
00:53:47,177 --> 00:53:49,097
Speaker 1: I look at power, so there's nothing in the same

1115
00:53:49,257 --> 00:53:50,897
Speaker 1: order of magnitude, and I mean, you know, I don't

1116
00:53:50,897 --> 00:53:53,377
Speaker 1: want another pandemic obviously, things like that. I mean, look,

1117
00:53:53,417 --> 00:53:56,737
Speaker 1: I think the immigration issue and the potential for cartels,

1118
00:53:56,737 --> 00:53:58,457
Speaker 1: I don't think it's I don't know why we would

1119
00:53:58,497 --> 00:54:01,057
Speaker 1: just rule out the potential to use I don't know

1120
00:54:01,137 --> 00:54:02,977
Speaker 1: why we would just rule out the potential to use

1121
00:54:03,097 --> 00:54:06,137
Speaker 1: military force under any circumstances. I'm not saying we should,

1122
00:54:06,417 --> 00:54:08,377
Speaker 1: but I think it's worth considering. I mean, that's a

1123
00:54:08,537 --> 00:54:11,537
Speaker 1: huge harm to the American people, and that seems that something,

1124
00:54:11,697 --> 00:54:14,097
Speaker 1: and I don't think this administration has been good on it.

1125
00:54:14,737 --> 00:54:17,897
Speaker 1: Within the security realm, I think the one that's probably

1126
00:54:17,897 --> 00:54:19,657
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's possible the Israelis will go

1127
00:54:19,697 --> 00:54:21,737
Speaker 1: after the Iranian program in the near term. I think

1128
00:54:21,777 --> 00:54:24,177
Speaker 1: there's ways to handle that, particularly by supporting the Israelis

1129
00:54:24,217 --> 00:54:27,057
Speaker 1: and the and the you know, the Abraham Accords crowd.

1130
00:54:27,177 --> 00:54:31,937
Speaker 1: I think the North Korea situation is really, um, it's

1131
00:54:32,057 --> 00:54:34,537
Speaker 1: untenable to keep going like it is, because they're going

1132
00:54:34,577 --> 00:54:37,697
Speaker 1: to develop the ability to get out beyond our missile defenses,

1133
00:54:37,737 --> 00:54:39,937
Speaker 1: which don't work well enough to keep up with them.

1134
00:54:40,377 --> 00:54:44,257
Speaker 1: And they're they're pretty crazy, and the South Koreans are

1135
00:54:44,297 --> 00:54:46,577
Speaker 1: making noises, and I think we need to have a

1136
00:54:46,657 --> 00:54:48,977
Speaker 1: kind of a rethink of what that is. I think

1137
00:54:49,097 --> 00:54:51,377
Speaker 1: I think there are I think there are things that

1138
00:54:51,457 --> 00:54:54,457
Speaker 1: we could do. You know, um, I mean I don't

1139
00:54:54,537 --> 00:54:56,297
Speaker 1: like I'll put I'll put it to you bluntly. I

1140
00:54:56,337 --> 00:54:58,137
Speaker 1: don't think at the end of the day, we don't

1141
00:54:58,177 --> 00:55:01,017
Speaker 1: want proliferation to our allies. But that is not the

1142
00:55:01,137 --> 00:55:03,697
Speaker 1: worst thing. It's not as bad as a North Korean

1143
00:55:03,737 --> 00:55:05,857
Speaker 1: nuclear attack on the American homeland. It's not as bad

1144
00:55:05,977 --> 00:55:08,897
Speaker 1: as breaking our alliance with South Korea. So you know,

1145
00:55:08,977 --> 00:55:10,617
Speaker 1: we need to put we need to have like a

1146
00:55:10,697 --> 00:55:13,817
Speaker 1: fundamental rethink of our situation North Korea. And at the

1147
00:55:13,897 --> 00:55:15,177
Speaker 1: end of the day, Look, he's your point about the

1148
00:55:15,217 --> 00:55:19,897
Speaker 1: North Koreans. The Juteche model is basically in super independence nationalism.

1149
00:55:20,097 --> 00:55:22,177
Speaker 1: Well that applies to China. Actually I didn't know this

1150
00:55:22,297 --> 00:55:25,297
Speaker 1: until recently, but the North Korean's kicked out the Chinese

1151
00:55:25,377 --> 00:55:27,697
Speaker 1: in the late fifties from North Korea after the Chinese

1152
00:55:27,737 --> 00:55:30,137
Speaker 1: had intervened and saved North Korea from the US and

1153
00:55:30,177 --> 00:55:33,097
Speaker 1: the South Koreans and the UN forces. So I'm not

1154
00:55:33,257 --> 00:55:36,097
Speaker 1: I'm not optimistic about North Korea, but I don't think

1155
00:55:36,137 --> 00:55:39,657
Speaker 1: we can continue going along the same trajectory that we've

1156
00:55:39,657 --> 00:55:43,337
Speaker 1: been going on. And Bridge Kolby, Sir, phenomenal as always,

1157
00:55:43,337 --> 00:55:47,297
Speaker 1: so appreciative you joining me here on the Buck Sexton Show.

1158
00:55:47,897 --> 00:55:50,657
Speaker 1: Your book is great where thank you very much. Tell

1159
00:55:50,697 --> 00:55:52,977
Speaker 1: people the book where can they go get it? Great?

1160
00:55:53,177 --> 00:55:55,217
Speaker 1: I really delight to be with you, Buck. The book

1161
00:55:55,297 --> 00:55:57,337
Speaker 1: is The Strategy of Denial, American Defense and Age of

1162
00:55:57,377 --> 00:55:59,457
Speaker 1: Great Power Conflict that you can find it on Amazon,

1163
00:55:59,537 --> 00:56:02,737
Speaker 1: the Yale University website. And I'm on Twitter at Elbridge

1164
00:56:02,777 --> 00:56:05,857
Speaker 1: Colby and you know, look forward to hearing from any

1165
00:56:05,857 --> 00:56:07,697
Speaker 1: of the listeners who want to follow up. Yeah, please

1166
00:56:07,737 --> 00:56:11,017
Speaker 1: to tweet tweet questions and thoughts to Bridge and my friend.

1167
00:56:11,337 --> 00:56:13,377
Speaker 1: It's been twenty years here we are. It's good to

1168
00:56:13,417 --> 00:56:16,377
Speaker 1: talk to you. Thanks for being here, you two. Thanks man,