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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, It's bowl season.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: It's the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: College Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part two. I'm stucky in

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Speaker 2: joining me, as always is Colin Wilson. Twelve bowls to

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Speaker 2: get to today. We will cover everything from the Bulk

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Speaker 2: over Tone Bowl through the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, twelve of them,

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Speaker 2: and then, for what it's worth, we'll have week Part

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Speaker 2: three and Part four out next Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Colin,

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Speaker 2: you're still trying to get over the Old Dominion meltdown.

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Speaker 1: I have PTSD, my friend, Old Dominion twenty eight zero.

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Speaker 1: It's like an Atlanta Falcons England Patriots Super Bowl game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what Ricky Ronnie's doing. I felt so

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Speaker 1: comfortable in my handicap of rush explosives. I have so

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Speaker 1: much PTSD in bowl season? Now, how many MAC teams

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Speaker 1: without quarterbacks are going to cover? Like you and I

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Speaker 1: and for everybody that's listening, like we just got news,

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Speaker 1: like it's circulating. It's not official, like Frank Harris could

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Speaker 1: be sitting out, like if Cole Kramer can get thirty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars to play one Bowl game from Minnesota for

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Speaker 1: his wedding, which you know he refutes. Now, can somebody

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Speaker 1: get a wire a check to Frank Harris please? Anyways

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Speaker 1: that I can't wait to attack these bulls. But man,

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Speaker 1: it's been a lot of fun in one week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, bullseason is becoming pretty ridiculous with these early season

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Speaker 2: bowl I mean, we still could have up to twenty

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Speaker 2: six backup or third string quarterbacks starting in these bowl games,

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Speaker 2: and then you have all the guys in the transfer portal,

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Speaker 2: you have no idea who's going to play until the

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Speaker 2: day of. It's pretty ridiculous. I hate it in a

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Speaker 2: way because I just love I love I've always loved

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Speaker 2: ball season for handicap in the matchups, and a lot

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Speaker 2: of it now is just becoming not just news finding

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Speaker 2: out who's starting and who's going to be quarterbacks. So

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Speaker 2: fortunately the later season bowls will be less of that,

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Speaker 2: but we're gonna have a ton of that. I think

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Speaker 2: we're gonna have twelve of the twenty four quarterbacks or backups,

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Speaker 2: so the twelve bowls we're gonna cover. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of uncertainty. If you're listening to those things could change.

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Speaker 1: Give me to the playoff where the handicap matters, you know,

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Speaker 1: can just give me to the playoff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's uh, let's get right into it. Let's start

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Speaker 2: off with the book over Tone Bowl the roofclaim dot

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Speaker 2: Com book over Tone Bowl, Miss Cherry, Miss Cherry Bundy

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Speaker 2: as well. I think book over the roof Claimer roof Claim.

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Speaker 2: I think this probably would be for like storm, so

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Speaker 2: makes sense to Florida. This guy we played Thursday, December

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Speaker 2: twenty first, eight pm Eastern on ESPN between South Florida

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Speaker 2: and Syracuse. Syracuse is a two and a half to

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Speaker 2: three point favorite, hero Under down to fifty six and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's worth noting that South Florida is fast.

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Speaker 2: They play fast. Syracuse used to be fast, but they've

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Speaker 2: played slow the past two seasons. The big question here is, well, first,

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Speaker 2: I should have matched the coaching changes. Dino Babers was fired.

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Speaker 2: You'll have Campanelli that will serve as an interim head coach.

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Speaker 2: Syracuse is a couple of defenders in the transfer portal.

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Speaker 2: They're starting edge. Leon Lowry will be out a couple

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Speaker 2: guys in the secondary, but they haven't played in a

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Speaker 2: few weeks. The biggest news here is the is Garrett Trader,

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Speaker 2: he had surgery, will not play in the bowl game.

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Speaker 2: Syracuse's backup quarterback, Carlos del Rio Wilson, also won't play

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Speaker 2: in the bowl game. So that leads a major question

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Speaker 2: mark when you break this game down, because you could

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Speaker 2: see on the depth chart red shirt freshman Braden Davis,

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Speaker 2: who only played fifty snaps or so this year, he's

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Speaker 2: listed as the starter. However, there's a chance that they

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Speaker 2: could go with Dan Vaalarie, their tight end who just

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Speaker 2: runs wildcat and throws like one yard passes. Because anytime

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Speaker 2: they used him like they in the in the wild

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Speaker 2: cut package, you know, sometimes for a whole games, he

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Speaker 2: was never listed as the starter at quarterback. It's also

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Speaker 2: where that in the USF defense is much better against

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Speaker 2: the run. So whoever starts at quarterback here and how

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Speaker 2: Syracuse decides to play this I think goes a long way.

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Speaker 2: And determining how this plays out, I think USF will care,

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Speaker 2: you know, so getting the six wins is important for them.

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Speaker 2: They definitely will be motivated playing in Florida. Syracuse with

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Speaker 2: the coaching changes a little more questionable. What do you

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Speaker 2: see here between USF and Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: You know, Garret Strader sitting out of this ball means

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Speaker 1: that Syracuse' entire offense is now based around Leaquents Allen,

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Speaker 1: and we have to find a way to get him

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Speaker 1: the ball. The problem is is almost all of the

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Speaker 1: stats that Syracuse has put up this season from our

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Speaker 1: offensive rush perspective, most of it all came off of

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Speaker 1: Garrett Strader's legs. But you know, Laquinn Allen over three

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Speaker 1: yards after contact. You know him and Schrader had created

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Speaker 1: eighty missed tackles. So they were a huge duo in

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Speaker 1: the zone Reid option. And what were you gonna do

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Speaker 1: a quarterback anyway? I mean, Carlos del Rio one big

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Speaker 1: time throw, five turnover worthy plays, just horrible passing numbers horrible.

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Speaker 1: So I think it makes sense that Dan Valari is

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Speaker 1: gonna come in here, run a little wildcat, run a

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Speaker 1: little read. I think. You know, but you are attacking

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Speaker 1: the best part of the South Florida defense, and you know,

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Speaker 1: with USF on the offensive side, which this number, it's

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Speaker 1: quite interesting. You watch the market, right, we get announcement

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Speaker 1: the Garrett Trader's out, we go down as far as

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Speaker 1: one and a half in some shops, rips right back

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Speaker 1: up to three. There's a couple three and a halfs

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Speaker 1: out there right now. So we're living in a world

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Speaker 1: where Garrett Trader meant nothing to the spread whatsoever. I

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Speaker 1: think that's a strong buy signal, I would think on Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: But the best part of the Syracuse d was average

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Speaker 1: top twenty per PFF. So when you look at quarterback

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Speaker 1: Byron Brown for South Florida, you know he listed twenty

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Speaker 1: three touchdowns and eleven interceptions, but that's not really what's

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Speaker 1: been going on with him. Twenty one big time throws,

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Speaker 1: twenty five turnover worthy plays. Syracuse runs a three three

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Speaker 1: to five defense to implement forty percent man coverage or

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Speaker 1: quarters or Cover one when they do go zone, and

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Speaker 1: Brown was average against man coverage, but he was terrible

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Speaker 1: against Cover one. So I expect there to be lenny

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Speaker 1: and turnovers here from South Florida side too. It's not like, hey,

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Speaker 1: Garrett Trader's out, South Florida is gonna win this game

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Speaker 1: and Brown gets in trouble with pressure. He has tripled

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Speaker 1: the turnover worthy plays probably with Syracuse one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth and pass rush. They lost their edge in

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Speaker 1: the portal Leon Lowry, so I'm not sure if they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to get to Brown. Total opened up

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Speaker 1: fifty seven half, it blew through a key of fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: It finally touched resistance at sixty two.

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Speaker 2: I would think this could be some win too, is

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Speaker 2: something to note.

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Speaker 1: And with Dan Vlari run quarterback, running wildcat and zone read,

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Speaker 1: that's a complete undergame. That number sunk down. I see

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Speaker 1: what fifty seven and a half fifty six and a half

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Speaker 1: out there, That's exactly where I would put the game

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Speaker 1: if Garrett Trader was in here. I was looking at

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Speaker 1: an under already on this one. So if we get

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Speaker 1: confirmation that Dan Lauri is going to be running quarterback

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna run all zone read, they're going to

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Speaker 1: have success doing that. It's kind of a stalemate here,

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Speaker 1: right And then Byron Brown is i mean, their own

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Speaker 1: worst enemy on for South Florida on defense. So I

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Speaker 1: think an under is a play here, especially if they're

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Speaker 1: going to go all zone read here in the wake

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Speaker 1: of Garrett Trader not playing.

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Speaker 2: All right, that's been put to a game where I

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Speaker 2: don't think you're going to recommend the under, and that's

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Speaker 2: on Friday night in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl.

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Speaker 2: This game will be played in Tampa on Friday night,

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Speaker 2: six thirty Eastern on ESPN. Weather looks pretty good between

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech and UCF. UCF four and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorite here over under totals off the sixty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half player news to note Tech transfer portal, starting

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Speaker 2: edge Kyle Kernard, starting cornerback Keenan Johnson, UCF transfer portal.

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Speaker 2: They're starting cornerback Corey Thornton, and then they've had they

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Speaker 2: had a couple secondary injuries to Wilson and Marshall late

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Speaker 2: in the season that are worth monitoring. If you look at,

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Speaker 2: you know, just these teams from a metrics standpoint side

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Speaker 2: by side, a lot of red on the defense, I would,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just it's it's hard for me to

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Speaker 2: imagine either defense really slowing down the other opponent offense.

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Speaker 2: This should be one of the more and look, there's

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Speaker 2: no it looks like both offenses will be close to

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Speaker 2: full strength. I think that both teams, you know, UCF

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Speaker 2: playing in Florida, Georgia Tech has been a you know

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Speaker 2: perennial Bowl player of late both six and six. I

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Speaker 2: think they'll be excited to play in this game. So

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Speaker 2: this could be one of the more exciting watches where

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Speaker 2: I think we have a good idea of who's going

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Speaker 2: to play, at least as of now. At four and

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Speaker 2: a half, I would lean Georgia Tech. I think this

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Speaker 2: is just a back and forth game. Profiles is like

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Speaker 2: who's the last with the ball? I know you like

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Speaker 2: the over, so many value there at sixty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half, I.

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Speaker 1: Think so, I mean it kind of got deflated. I

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Speaker 1: took sixty four and a half in the app. I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty heavily invested on the over, and I'm not coming

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Speaker 1: back on it. I'm not gonna play it live either.

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Speaker 1: It there you really of all the balls we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about, I don't think you can find a

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Speaker 1: larger discrepancy than what these offenses do on the ground

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Speaker 1: versus what the defenses are able to stop on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Now you mentioned the portal, they're the two names that

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Speaker 1: you mentioned. UCF Corey Thornton had nine PBUs three interceptions

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Speaker 1: his way. He was twenty ninth individually and passes defense.

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Speaker 1: That's a huge loss for UCF. You go to the

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Speaker 1: Georgia Tech side edge Kyle Carnard. You mentioned his twenty

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Speaker 1: one pressures. That's nearly double of anybody else on the team.

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Speaker 1: So Georgia Tech lost like any relevancy they have in

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Speaker 1: creating pressure against John Rey's plumb lee. But this game's

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Speaker 1: going to come down to the run. I mean, Haines

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Speaker 1: King seven or twenty nine yards on the season rushing

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Speaker 1: four hundred and sixty three of those from designed. The

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Speaker 1: rest all come through scramble. How Buster Faulkner is still

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Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech, I don't know. This guy should be

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Speaker 1: probably a bigger program calling plays. And then I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know the defenses. You see F one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth in defensive rushing success rate. They're also one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fourth and allowing explosives. Look out for

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Speaker 1: running back Jamal Hayes. He had seventeen explosive runs this season.

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Speaker 1: If I was playing props, I would definitely be looking

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Speaker 1: at him getting over. Also, UCF, you guys know I

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Speaker 1: love talking run concepts. Central Florida cannot defend outside zone

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Speaker 1: or counter run concepts. And that's all the Georgia Tech

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Speaker 1: runs when you go to the Central Florida side, they

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Speaker 1: run even more than Georgia Tech does. Heavier run package

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Speaker 1: with quarterback John Reys, plumb Lee running back RJ. Harvey

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Speaker 1: who had twenty three explosive runs this season. They run

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Speaker 1: all inside zone. They pivot to counter ten percent of

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Speaker 1: the time. Georgia Tech is a trocious against inside zone.

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Speaker 1: They cannot devent any rush package that UCF is going

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Speaker 1: to be putting out there. So I can't stress enough.

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Speaker 1: These two teams are about twenty five seconds per play,

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Speaker 1: not slow, not extremely fast, but not slow whatsoever. There

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Speaker 1: are major advantages in quality drives, finishing drives, and most

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Speaker 1: of all explosives. UCF I lean to because they have

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Speaker 1: an edge and pass explosives as to where UCF is

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Speaker 1: actually good in the secondary and defending and dropping enough

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Speaker 1: guys back in coverage to prevent explosives. And they're pretty

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Speaker 1: good at allowing broken tackle. So that was the small

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Speaker 1: edge that led me to taking UCF.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you without Thornton, if Wilson and Marshall

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Speaker 2: don't play, that could change too true.

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Speaker 1: Let's circle back to the main point. I don't think

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Speaker 1: I'm invested in enough on the over and I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure what number I should stop investing, but I mean,

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Speaker 1: who's playing defense here? Nobody?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't buy a sixty eight or above, but

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Speaker 2: it's either over or nothing even after the move All right,

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Speaker 2: before we move on to saay Colin Bowl season is great,

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Speaker 2: but there's one thing these Bowl teams are missing this

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to Saturday. We'll kick things off

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Speaker 2: at well. We have a pair of games at noon.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with Troy and Duke in the Birmingham Bowl,

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Speaker 2: the seventy six Birmingham Bowls. I think as a truck

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Speaker 2: stop seventy six. This is guy on. We played in Birmingham, Alabama,

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Speaker 2: not too far from Troy. Whether it looks pretty good.

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Speaker 2: Troy's a seven and a half point favorite over Duke.

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Speaker 2: There is a lot of news here to get through

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Speaker 2: over under. By the way, cross forty five is down,

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Speaker 2: totals down to forty four and a half. Troy. They're

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Speaker 2: head coach John Sumrall. He agreed to take the open

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Speaker 2: head coach job at Tulane. Their defensive coordinator, Greg Gosparata

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Speaker 2: will serve as the interim coach. For what it's worth.

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Speaker 2: If he didn't see the news, Notre Dame off its

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Speaker 2: coordinator Gerard Parker will take her a full time following

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Speaker 2: the bowl game news. Player news for Troy not much.

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Speaker 2: They're one of the best linebackers Jaden McDonald. He is

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Speaker 2: in the transfer portal, but nothing else really from a

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Speaker 2: personnel perspective as of right now for the Trojans. Duke

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Speaker 2: also major coaching changes. Mike Elko left for Texas A

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Speaker 2: and m associated head coach Trooper Taylor wh serve as

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Speaker 2: the interim I don't know Kevin Johns. He didn't he

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Speaker 2: might end up at Notre Dame, but he's still at

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Speaker 2: Duke technically, so I think he's still going to be

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Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator as of now, but he could get coached.

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Speaker 2: I would think maybe Duke is you have like kind

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Speaker 2: of the full circle your draw Parker going to Troy,

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Speaker 2: he's playing Duke. Kevin Johnson could go join Riley Leonard

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Speaker 2: at Notre Dame. The biggest personal news is with Dukes.

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Speaker 2: He had starting quarterback Riley Leonard he transferred to Duke.

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Speaker 2: I'd expect Grayson Loftus to start, who played in seven games.

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Speaker 2: Starting running back Jordan Waters in the portals. Jack Moore

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Speaker 2: their other running back. He went in the portal, came

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Speaker 2: out starting quarnerback Brandon Johnson in the portal, starting edge

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Speaker 2: r j Obin portal. I believe he's going to Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame starting to d lynman aneas Peebles quartal. That's two

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Speaker 2: of their best d linemen. I also would expect Dwayne

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Speaker 2: Carter to opt out at some point. He had took

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Speaker 2: a Senior Bowl invite. Their best linebacker also in the portal.

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Speaker 2: And then they're starting safety and kick returner Jalen Stinson.

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Speaker 2: He's practicing but in the portal, so who knows. They're

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Speaker 2: starting center Scott Elliott didn't play in the final few games.

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Speaker 2: And then you also there's the others. Starting safety Terry Moore,

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Speaker 2: he got hurt late in the season. Haven't seen an

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Speaker 2: update on him. And they're starting left tackle Graham Barton.

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Speaker 2: He accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl and will

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Speaker 2: not play in the Bawl. A lot of news so

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Speaker 2: Duke I mean, could be down eleven twelve starters on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the ball, and their head coach they

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Speaker 2: have to question motivation here. I think that's you know,

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Speaker 2: all of these opt outs are pretty fairly priced into

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Speaker 2: the line. Duke, you can just have success with short passing,

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Speaker 2: and you know with elchos D they don't give up

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Speaker 2: a lot of explosive plays. That's something Troy can have

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Speaker 2: a lot of success doing. And it's just tough for

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Speaker 2: me with all of these opt outs and Duke down

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Speaker 2: to its backup quarterback, to see them consistently moving the

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Speaker 2: ball against Troy. I would lean Troy. It's tough to

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Speaker 2: lay over a touchdown out that the line has moved.

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Speaker 2: But it's Troy or nothing here for me. What do

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Speaker 2: you see in the seventy six bermihadble.

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Speaker 1: What you said is where I kind of fell on this,

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Speaker 1: which is I don't think I can lay seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. I mean Grayson Loftas takes over his starting

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Speaker 1: duties in Week ten against pitt. He has an eighty

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Speaker 1: three TD to I T ratio and an even better

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Speaker 1: nine to three big time throw turnover worthy play. He

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Speaker 1: hasn't been bad now. He doesn't run like Riley Leonard.

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Speaker 1: Of course not many people do. He's only had seven

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Speaker 1: scrambles for thirty three yards. I think it's what's interesting

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Speaker 1: is that he had sixteen targets to Jordan Moore and

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Speaker 1: the finale against pitt So that's definitely something that you

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Speaker 1: want to keep your eye on there. It seems like

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Speaker 1: he's made his decision on where the go to guy

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Speaker 1: is going to be. The last two games of the year,

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Speaker 1: offense went heavy pass over rush, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: the thing when you think of Mike Elko's offense that

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Speaker 1: he's had, They've always been above fifty six percent rush

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Speaker 1: rate and the pass has just been something that they

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Speaker 1: do in passing downs. That completely changed in the in

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Speaker 1: the last two games of the season. Now, Troy has

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Speaker 1: been excellent on cover three, quarters cover one, and Troy

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Speaker 1: has big advantages in third down defense. So it's not

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Speaker 1: like I'm making a case here the duke is you know,

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Speaker 1: can easily cover this game, but it's a different duke team.

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Speaker 1: I think what you're looking at from season long sissistics,

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Speaker 1: this duke team really likes to pass. Now, this quarterback

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Speaker 1: doesn't make a lot of mistakes and Grayson loftis, but

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Speaker 1: he doesn't run. Now. Troy, on the other side, their

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Speaker 1: offense is ultra relying on explosives. Their top thirty five

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Speaker 1: in EPA. They're mid FBS and success rate. I mean

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Speaker 1: they have to have explosives to get themselves into scoring position,

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Speaker 1: and that Duke four two five defense prides themselves on

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Speaker 1: not allowing explosives, but they did fall about fiftieth defensive

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Speaker 1: run and pass EPA. They're above national average and success

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Speaker 1: rate with man blocking concepts. That's Troy on offense. They're

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Speaker 1: just explosive with inside zone. Duke cannot defend inside zone.

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Speaker 1: So Troy is going to have explosives here on the ground.

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Speaker 2: And they're without probably their three best defensive linemen and

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Speaker 2: best linebacker.

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Speaker 1: Yes, all that being said, the side I'm probably not

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Speaker 1: going to get involved with. I would take Duke at

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Speaker 1: seven a half, but I'm probably not going to get

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Speaker 1: involved pregame the over I want. Troy is going to

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Speaker 1: hit explosives here. They're going to get multiple scoring opportunities.

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Speaker 1: But look at the last two games of Duke. They

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Speaker 1: love to throw. If you look at Duke's pace the

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Speaker 1: final two games, twenty six seconds per play against North

358
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Speaker 1: Carolina twenty two seconds per play against Virginia and twenty

359
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: seven seconds per play against pitt. All of them had

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Speaker 1: heavy pass tendencies. All of them are faster than the

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Speaker 1: season long average of twenty eight seconds per play. So

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Speaker 1: whatever's going on with the offensive play calling, they're faster

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Speaker 1: and they throw more. The number is really in a

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Speaker 1: dead zone for the total key numbers here, forty one

365
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Speaker 1: forty five. We kind of been hanging on forty four

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Speaker 1: and a half, drastically down from the fifty one and

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Speaker 1: a half. I would have projected this in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the season, but stuck. There could be more opt

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Speaker 1: outs or coaching news that could drive this down. I'm

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Speaker 1: content with sitting back until Saturday and then taking it over.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the over here Saturday morning about

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Speaker 1: nine o'clock.

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Speaker 2: One other thing that I didn't note is Jalen Calhoun

374
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Speaker 2: hit the portal for Duke their best receiver or he

375
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Speaker 2: opted out for the NFL Draft, So that was I mean,

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Speaker 2: there was just a ton of news here.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen targets to Jordan Moore from Grayson LOFTUS, that is

378
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 1: his guy. You can find wide receiver props. That's that's

379
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Speaker 1: a heck of a play on Duke.

380
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the other game at

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Speaker 2: noon on Saturday, and it's the Chamellea Bowl Moon Eastern

382
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Speaker 2: Saturday on ESPN in Montgomery, Alabama, between Arkansas State and

383
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois. Arkansas State tw and a half point Favorituary

384
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 2: over Under fifty three and a half. I don't think

385
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 2: there's a sponsor to this bowl. Just the Alabama State Flower.

386
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Speaker 2: I don't. I think this used to be the TATS Act.

387
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't. I don't see a sponsor

388
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Speaker 2: to this bowl. Maybe we'll sponsor this bowl next year.

389
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Speaker 2: News for this game. Arkansas State starting linebacker Javonte Mackie

390
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: committed to Memphis. He's their best linebacker. Their defensive lineman

391
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 2: Kayden lewis kind of a depth guy that plays played,

392
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Speaker 2: you know, close to two and fifty steps. He's not

393
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: on the Bowl depth chart. There's stud center Jacob Buyer,

394
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Speaker 2: he missed the finale after surgery, but looks like he

395
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: might return for the Bowl. And their running back Sack

396
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: Boss also missed the regular season finale with an injury.

397
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Speaker 2: Worth keeping an eye on. Northern Illinois. Their news starting

398
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: center Pete Niger. He's a good one. He committed to Louisville.

399
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 2: He's not going to play safety. Devin Lafayette reduced playing

400
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 2: time late the season. He's in the portal. A couple

401
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 2: other guys, George Gumms their edge. He's probably the only

402
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 2: other meaningful guy. Trayvon Rudolph their stard return return man receiver.

403
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 2: He entered the portal and then Withdrew, so I would

404
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 2: expect him to play. He's massive because they've had some

405
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Speaker 2: other injuries at wide receiver. I you know it's I

406
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Speaker 2: will say this is it's an interesting handicap. The first

407
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Speaker 2: thing I want to ask is like does the sun

408
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Speaker 2: Belt suck? I thought the sun Belt was much better,

409
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 2: but you know, it's a small sample size. But look

410
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Speaker 2: what we've seen out of the Sun Belt so far.

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Speaker 2: The teams in the sunblt that have played bowls. Louisiana yikes,

412
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 2: not a good effort. Georgia Southern Super yikes, Old Dominion

413
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: not being able to beat the Western Kentucky third Serggers

414
00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,880
Speaker 2: from up twenty eight to nothing, and then app State

415
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 2: so none of them covered. I own four against the

416
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 2: spread and the only one that won was apt State.

417
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Speaker 2: But they didn't cover, so not a good look. And

418
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Speaker 2: when you reach ball season, you have these teams and

419
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Speaker 2: you're power rating them within their conference, and you know

420
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Speaker 2: nine nine ten games are within the context of their conference.

421
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Speaker 2: But there can be some discrepancy when you know, you

422
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Speaker 2: get out of conference in bol season and you know

423
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Speaker 2: these teams are improving and it might have more to

424
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 2: do with the quality or lack thereof of the conference

425
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Speaker 2: that are playing in.

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Speaker 1: But then you have as like Texas, Texas State, b Baylor,

427
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Speaker 1: and people get the perception right at the conference.

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00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so only four games but not you know, you're

429
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: not going to get a huge sample size. There are

430
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 2: twelve Sun Belt teams in bowls. But as you know,

431
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 2: as far as the first four concern pretty concerning with

432
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: Arkansas State, I will say that you know, when I

433
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: look at this game, you can't really Northern Illinois had.

434
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: Now they do play in the MAC. It was a

435
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: pretty easy schedule of closing pass offenses. But their pass

436
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 2: defense was great this year time fifteen pass success rate

437
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: defense one of the surprise units in the MAC and

438
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: across the country in my opinion. But you can run

439
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: it on them. But arc State not really a great

440
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: rushing team one hundred and twenty sixty pa per rush,

441
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifth rush success rate. The wa that

442
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 2: Illinois is slow, which is worth noting. Arkansas State will

443
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: play faster. I kind of like the over here. I'm

444
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: a little worried about how Northern Illinois plays. But just

445
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 2: when I look at this, I think both offensive profiles

446
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: are a bit suppressed because if you Arkansas State, how

447
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 2: they started the year was like horrendous. They I mean,

448
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 2: you have Butcher Jones was crying on the sidelines, and

449
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 2: then they found their quarterback in Rainer, and their offense

450
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: really took off from there. Across the board, Northern Illinois

451
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 2: also started really slow their first four games. Their offense

452
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: looked horrendous. They basically named an offensive assistant the de

453
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 2: facto offensive coordinator, and he took over play calling duties

454
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 2: and the offensive coordinator was basically demoted, and their offense

455
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 2: kind of took off from there. With Rudolph back, that's massive. Yeah,

456
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 2: the Arkansas State defense is not any good. I think

457
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: this has the potential to turn into a shootout. I

458
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 2: would look over here. Arkansas State's tough team to crack.

459
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: They have some pretty wild results. What do you see here.

460
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: There's a couple of things that have me on Arkansas State,

461
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 1: and I mean, I have to block out what's been

462
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 1: going on with the sun Belt. But let's start off

463
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 1: with Northern Illinois and what they've got going on in

464
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 1: the portal. Northern Illinois center Pete, Yeah, in the portal.

465
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: After seven hundred and seventy two snaps at center, that's

466
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: a pretty big position to lose when you look at

467
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: what's behind him and who's played there. And I'm sorry

468
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: if I mess his name of Logan Zeeschernitz. He had

469
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 1: fifty three snaps at right guard and left guard, and

470
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 1: he's the one that's going to play center here for

471
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: the first time this season. Now. I don't know what

472
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: his career was before Northern Illinois, if he has any

473
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 1: time at center, but to me, that is a massive

474
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: part of the handicap on the Northern Illinois offense, especially

475
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: when you consider that you know, Rocky Lombardi is just

476
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,199
Speaker 1: a turnover worthy play machine. You know they're and they

477
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: played one hundred and thirty first strength of schedule. They're

478
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred pass explosive success rate in

479
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: passing downs. I mean, we can make a case that

480
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: they're going to get points up. They've done it before,

481
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: They've surprised us in certain spots. But the fact that

482
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 1: you know they've got a guy playing center that's never

483
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: played center, at least on the college level, that really

484
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: kind of sent up a flag for me. Now on

485
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, like I know the

486
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: overall numbers in Arkansas you mentioned, I mean this is

487
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: like this is like a dirt cutter at Boise State

488
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 1: all over again, like they just had this mid season

489
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: renaissance and then it all worked out for him. I mean,

490
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: Arkansas State scored seventy seven points on Texas State in

491
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: week thirteen Week twelve, so I mean they can put

492
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 1: points up. So you start with Jalen Rainer in the

493
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: rush running a heavy amount of inside zone was Zach

494
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 1: Wallace Jaquez Cross North Illinois is not good against inside

495
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: zone forty four percent success rate. The strength of then,

496
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: I U is the pass defense and preventing explosives. In

497
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: Arkansas State, I think is just gonna be able to

498
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: run them now, whether it's fast and there's tempo, and

499
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: I don't know about how quickly they're going to score totals,

500
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: you know, I think low enough to be pretty right

501
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: for a taking here. But I also like Arkansas State

502
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 1: for Butch Jones five and one against the spread and

503
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: bowl games. Arkansas State has a much more likely chance

504
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: of creating methodical drives, setting up scoring opportunities on the

505
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: ground with Rainer using that inside zone that NIU can't defend.

506
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: And I just get back to it that Northern Illinois

507
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: offense with a new center bothers me, I would say

508
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: I've taken Arkansas State. I would still take him at three.

509
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 1: I've got a power raid at five. I would take

510
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: it up to five.

511
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: Yes, Certace, but he's been around for a while. I meant,

512
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 2: I think he started getting back in twenty nineteen. He

513
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 2: was touched up with injuries this year, but he's only

514
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: ever played guard. I think he might have played some tackle.

515
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, that could end up being a major factor

516
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 2: in this game.

517
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: For you offensive lineman out there. I mean, there are

518
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: some offenses where the centate or is the captain they

519
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: call out the blockings games for everybody else, So it's

520
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: a it's a huge adjustment in Thomas Hammock's offense. Remember

521
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 1: Thomas Hammock, old running back coach. He has a center

522
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: call the plays out of the line, so that all

523
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: of that just sent up a flag for me with

524
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois.

525
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to mid afternoon on Saturday,

526
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: three thirty Eastern Navy Sea to the Lockheed Martin Armed

527
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas between James Madison and

528
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: Air Force. James Madison one and a half point favorite

529
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: here over under forty one and a half lot of

530
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: news here good.

531
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: I put this game down twice. I started writing the script, handicapping.

532
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: I must have put it down twice. I'll let you

533
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: go because these defensive parts for James Madison, I'm just

534
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: driving crazy. Yeah.

535
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 2: Well, first, their head coach Kurt Signetti, he won't coach.

536
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: He took the head coaching job in Indiana. Offensive coordinator

537
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 2: Mike Shanahan, defensive coordinator Bryant Haynes, and quarterbacks coach t

538
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 2: know Sinceri are also leaving with Signetti to Indiana. Offensive

539
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: line coach Roblowski will serve as the acting head coach

540
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: for the James Madison's first ever bowl game. So with

541
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 2: only four coaches not leaving for Indiana, they hired five

542
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: temporary coaches to get through the bowl game. I imagine

543
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 2: that they're motivated as their first ever bowl game, they

544
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:23,719
Speaker 2: weren't even supposed to get one. Get to one an

545
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: air force also is a service academy. They're going to

546
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: be motivated. They're always motivated. It's one of the reasons

547
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 2: why service academies historically history of bowls seventy percent against

548
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 2: the spread. You can do much worse things of your

549
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: money than backing a service academy. But the James Madison

550
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 2: transfer bortal starting quarterback, Jordan mclough, starting linebacker, Jalen Walker,

551
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: starting linebacker Aden Fisher, starting defensive lineman Mikael Kamara, starting

552
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: defensive lineman James Carpenter, starting cornerback Chaunce Logan, one of

553
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 2: their depth linebackers Trus Jones. On the other side of

554
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 2: the ball, starting running back Lawton starting left tackle Tyler Stevens,

555
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: wide receiver Elijah Saraki. And then you know you have

556
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: their defensive end who's going to play in the NFL,

557
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: Jalen Green, he's hurt. Their other starting left tackle, tych

558
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: On why Wyatt. He was lost for the season, which

559
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: caused the offensive in Week nine cause off it's line

560
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 2: to reshuffle. They moved they then moved Stevens out of

561
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: the left tackle. He's in the portal. But you're talking

562
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 2: about and this James Madison defense, one of the best

563
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: run defenses in the country. But you're talking about, you know,

564
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 2: three linebackers, three of their best defensive linemen, their starting

565
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: corner all in the portal. Now reports are saying that

566
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: they might play still in this game, and like McLeod

567
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: is still going to play, I don't know that could change,

568
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 2: and who knows who's actually going to play with Air Force.

569
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: They're starting running back John Lee Eldridge hit the portal,

570
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 2: a defensive end Caden Bloom. Also, we don't know who's

571
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: gonna be quarterback for them, and you can never trust

572
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 2: what Troy Calhoun says. But is Zach Larry are going

573
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: to be back? He said he might, and that would

574
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: be important if he's healthy. The offense really falls off

575
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: a cliff without him. They're also they're starting cornerback Jerome Galliard.

576
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 2: He missed the final four games with an injury. They're

577
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 2: starting spur linebacker hasn't played since Week seven. Wide receivers

578
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: Daan Kidneman and Jared Roseness they could also be back

579
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: for the Bowl. So yeah, this is a really tough handicap.

580
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 2: Who's gonna play for Jamu? Because if Jamu was at

581
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: full strength and then air Force didn't have Larrier, I

582
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: know Jami would match the motivation of air Force. Also,

583
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: if everyone plays, that signifies that they do care and

584
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 2: they can shut down this air Force rush attack. But

585
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: if they're missing all these pieces, like going back to

586
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 2: Duke Duke's defense, they have some NFL guys up front,

587
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: but this is Duke's. The depth is just not there,

588
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: so and you're dropping off to freshman sophomores. This isn't

589
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: like Georgia or Alabama. Same thing with James Madison. Like

590
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: the depth, it's a pretty big drop off if you're

591
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: going to be down all of these guys. So I

592
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 2: don't know who's gonna be the quarterback for air Force.

593
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 2: I don't know who's playing for James Madison. I assume

594
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: both teams are going to be motivated. But then all

595
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 2: of a sudden, if James Madison has everyone set out,

596
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: you know, and their coach isn't there and they're down

597
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 2: to temporary coaches, that could be a sign that maybe

598
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: they don't really care. So as at an underdog with

599
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: the Service Academy right now, I had a bet it,

600
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to wait till closer to kick. I would

601
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: just take the Air Force in the points. But this

602
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 2: is an impossible game to handicap.

603
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: I started deep diving into this and really came into

604
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: like a process flow decision tree. Whether James Madison has

605
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: some of their star defensive players or not. I would

606
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 1: expect the players that are on the field are going

607
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: to put in a Max Effart because they're interim for

608
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: this coach Damien Robluski, He's going to be on the staff.

609
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: Head coach Bob Chezley's going to retain him and keep

610
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 1: him on. So you would think the players playing for

611
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 1: him or you know, if you want playing time next year,

612
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: you should probably show up here.

613
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 2: But and it's their first ever Bowl, and you know

614
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 2: air Force was just in this Bowl last year.

615
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: They smacked what Baylor around last year, Uh in a

616
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: game A lot of people like Baylor because of what

617
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: they had on the defensive line, and so you know

618
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: Air Force is going to show up here. I believe

619
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: a reddit right. Service Academies have won four in a

620
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: row in the Armed Forces Bowl, So it's something that

621
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: you know they take extremely serious, you know. And Troy

622
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: Callhoun's eight and five against the spread and bowls UH

623
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: and air Force himself has won four straight. And I

624
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: think the decision tree that I talked about, how you're

625
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: going to make a bet here the defense of James

626
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: Madison is missing the key players on the interior linebacker

627
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: Trus Jones, edge McHale Kamara, defensive defensive interior James Carpenter,

628
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: and defensive end Jalen Green with injury could be NFL.

629
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: Then this is an air Force bet. Now if those

630
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: key players are on the rush defense for JMU and

631
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 1: they're playing, to me, this isn't under all the way.

632
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, that's it.

633
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: That's the decision tree. Mark those names on defense and

634
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: then make a when you find out if they're playing

635
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: or not, that's your bet.

636
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, this is gonna be a gaming waitful a tip,

637
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 2: but yeah, everything was everyone was in on James Madison,

638
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: then they could slow down and especially if Larrier didn't play,

639
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: this would be under all the way clock speeding throughout. UH.

640
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the famous Idaho Potato Bowl the

641
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 2: same time as Jamie Air Force between Georgia State and

642
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: Utah State. Utah State two and a half point favorite

643
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 2: here total sitting at sixty one and a half. The

644
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: game been in Boise, Idaho, which is I would assume

645
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: is a advantage for Utah State. Mountain West team used

646
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: to the cold a lot more than Georgia State because

647
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 2: you could get we could get snow here. It will

648
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 2: definitely be cold, I think, but the location and weather

649
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: definitely favors Utah State. Is a matchup of two six

650
00:33:53,880 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: and six teams. Georgia State also much more impactful. Transfer

651
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: Portal names their stud starting running back Marcus Carroll portal

652
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 2: huge loss. He committed to Missouri. His backup Casey Adams Portal.

653
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 2: Their top receiver, Robert Lewis portal committed to Auburn. Those

654
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 2: are big losses. Also, there's studs starting right tackle Montageous

655
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: Cunningham portal committed to Va Tech, so all of them

656
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: will be out. They're starting cornerback Brown also committed to

657
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 2: Boston College, so you know, and then Utah State they

658
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 2: they're starting safety Devin Dies pretty good, he's in the portal.

659
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: Other than that, you know, one of their starting cornerbacks

660
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 2: didn't play in the finale, Dickerson and it looks like

661
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 2: they'll turn but they don't have much news other than

662
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: that looks like they'll turn to Levi Williams in as

663
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 2: the starter at quarterback. As Cooper Agostin McKay hill said,

664
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 2: are both still hurt? What it's both Leeby Williams will

665
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 2: forego his last year of eligibility and he's going to

666
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,959
Speaker 2: try to join the Navy Seals, which is pretty cool.

667
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 2: Famous Idahoe tatable. I remember I drew through Idaho this

668
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: summ whereas I was in Yellowstone going down to Jackson Hole,

669
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: who drove through Idaho and there was the big potato

670
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:16,280
Speaker 2: seed silos. You're chudren through Idaho.

671
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, my sons and I rafted up there.

672
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 2: There's like these There was the I forget what town

673
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: I drove through, but it was like the potato seed

674
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 2: capital of the world. But there's just huge silos of

675
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: potato seeds. Anyway, random thought of the day. When I

676
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: look at this game, both teams want to run it.

677
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: Georgia State not that officient but very explosive. But now

678
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: you're down your two backs and your best offensive lineman.

679
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,959
Speaker 2: That's gonna hurt because this Utah State rundy is horrendous

680
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 2: and like I said, they're also down their top wide receiver,

681
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 2: so can they exploit the Utah State Rundy still is

682
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: the major question. It's Granger and who else the Georgia runs.

683
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 2: Georgia State Rundy has been good, but the secondary is

684
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: horrendous and without their best cornerback. I think all the

685
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 2: intangibles here favor Utah State, and for what it's worth,

686
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: Levi Williams, we'll get the start. He was the Potato

687
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: Bowl MVP in twenty twenty one with Wyoming. It's Wyoming transfer.

688
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: Hopefully that works out a little better for him than

689
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 2: it did Davis Brinn, who was making his return to

690
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 2: a Bowl as a former MVP with another team. What

691
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 2: do you see here in the famous Idaho Potato Bowl?

692
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: We have to ask the all important question, why does

693
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: spuddy Buddy wear gloves? How did he get those on?

694
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: Why does he need them? Listen, I think you laid

695
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 1: it out perfectly about why we're going to bet Utah State.

696
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: Whether it's Levi Williams, Cooper Lagaz or McKay Hillstead, you

697
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: know all of them are going. They all have a

698
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: chance to impress Blake Anderson before the Spencer Beatrice Era

699
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: begins and logan are you ready for that? So listen

700
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: the past. Explosiveness is the best weapon for Utah State here.

701
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: You know they severely struggle in quality drives and finishing drives.

702
00:36:58,719 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: The only way they make it down and get in

703
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 1: the scoring position is big pass explosives. Georgia State shows

704
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: cover one and quarters a lot, but they have a

705
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: coverage grade of one hundred and twenty ninth. And this

706
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: season I talked a lot about on target allowed. On

707
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: target is do you let your wide receivers get the

708
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: ball in stride and run down the field. Yeah, Well,

709
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 1: Georgia State's defense is one hundred and twenty fifth in

710
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 1: on target allowed and now they're using losing brekeiast Brown

711
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 1: that you mentioned three PBUs on the season, he was

712
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,919
Speaker 1: targeted forty nine times at cornerback. So a really big

713
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 1: loss of an experience category for them. You look at

714
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: the wide receiver court Micah Davis Jalen Royals, They're both

715
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: over two yards per route run. That means they're explosive.

716
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: Terrell Vaughn four hundred fifty five snaps from the slot.

717
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: He only had two drops on one hundred and fourteen targets,

718
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: thirty four first downs. He is a chain moving machine

719
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 1: out of the slot. There's just too many weapons here

720
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: on this Utah State offense, no matter who the quarterback is.

721
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 1: And you've already mentioned on the other side of the ball,

722
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: let me ask you a question, stuck, Where did Marcus

723
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: Carroll go in the transfer port.

724
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: Missouri?

725
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, drink is cooking and we'll talk about that next year.

726
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 1: But Marcus Carroll was this entire offense. I mean, they

727
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 1: Georgia State relied on rush explosives more than anything else

728
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 1: in their advanced stats. Ninth in the nation rush EPA.

729
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: Who's up k Z Adams thirty six rushing attempts.

730
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 2: He's in the portal now too, though, Oh well, I

731
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 2: guess it doesn't matter that he only had one point

732
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 2: four yards after contact.

733
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 1: He was only created four miss tackles. They have nobody,

734
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: there's nobody.

735
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 2: He might still play it, but he's in the portal too,

736
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 2: so like they could be down to third and four

737
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: string guys if he plays. I don't not sure if

738
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 2: it helps now.

739
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: You know, as I say all this, it's not like

740
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: Utah State is squeaky clean. You know, get this win here,

741
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,439
Speaker 1: I mean there's still some troubled waters here. One hundred

742
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 1: and seventeenth in defensive finishing drives for Utah State, there

743
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 1: are one hundred and thirty second in the nation. And penalties,

744
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: Utah State can take themselves out of this game. When

745
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 1: you bet them, you're essentially playing a game of poker

746
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: and the casino and the casino's raking on that pot

747
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 1: all the time. Maybe a live here. Georgia State and

748
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: head coach Seawn Elliott, they finished dead last in the

749
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: middle eight. Now I do have money down on Utah State,

750
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 1: but Shawn Elliott being dead last in the middle eight,

751
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: I mean when you see stats like that, I mean

752
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: you have to take advantage of guys that do not

753
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 1: know how to work the clock before and after half.

754
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: So you know, I'm going to take Uta State based

755
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: on the explosives. The team does way too much to

756
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: hurt itself from penalties and red zone efficiency. So I

757
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: think Georgia State is something. If it steams the three

758
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 1: and a half four, I'd be inclined. I don't know

759
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: what how the Sun Belt's doing if I want to

760
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 1: get behind that, but Utah State, by no means should

761
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 1: be over three. But it is a play under three.

762
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I'll be on Utah State in some

763
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: form or fashion. It's also gonna keep in mind, like

764
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 2: all the intentionals that the Georgia State more impactful transfer

765
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 2: the way Utah State got to a bowl, I think

766
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: that they'll be motivated here. Pretty exciting. I think they

767
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 2: got there with an overtime win. You know, Logan's just

768
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 2: three hundred miles from Boise. They are more comfortable in

769
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: the elements. And you know what Georgia is. What twenty

770
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,959
Speaker 2: five hundred miles away? This will field like a home

771
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 2: game looked to Utah State, you could get snow.

772
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: And let me ask you a question, and don't don't

773
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 1: look it up. How many of the six wins that

774
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: Utah State has, how many of them are bowl teams?

775
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 2: I know the answer zero, Yeah, the.

776
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: Answer zero, But yeah, the answer zero. Uta State didn't

777
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: beat anybody that's going to a bowl game. I'm just

778
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: I thought it'd be interesting to note I'm going to

779
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: back a team with my own money that didn't beat

780
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: a single ball team all year. So here we go.

781
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 2: Well, that is a good transition into our next bowl.

782
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 2: Get to prime time on Saturday, seven pm. Eastern in Mobile,

783
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 2: Alabama in the sixty eight Ventures Bowl. What is sixty

784
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: eight Ventures?

785
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 1: Sixty eight Ventures an Alabama based company involved in Gulf

786
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: Coast development, investment and construction. I would have gone with

787
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: like a movie theater. I had no clue what it was.

788
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 2: I had no idea South Alabama home talk about home

789
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: field event, so I play on their home field and

790
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: Mobile against Eastern Michigan. Michigan, you could make a case

791
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: is the worst Bowl team in the history of Bowls.

792
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: I mean, this team, it is sad that they got

793
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 2: into a bowl. They are seventeen point underdogs here over

794
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: under forty six and a half. Here's who Eastern Michigan

795
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 2: beat this year.

796
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:24,959
Speaker 1: Zero. Yeah, the answer is zero.

797
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 2: Go ahead U Mass on the last second touchdown at

798
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 2: home Howard ball State, before Ball State was even playing well,

799
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 2: Kent State Akron in double overtime, and Buffalo that's it.

800
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: Those are their wins. This team is bad. They they're

801
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: starting quarterback Austin Smith, who's also bad as somehow in

802
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 2: the portal. I mean, I don't think he's gonna play

803
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: it once again looks looks by D three teams. If not,

804
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be like Udengwu, who would start. He's

805
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: more of a runner. He played thret one snap, so

806
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: he just basically just comes in and runs into walls.

807
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 2: Maybe co see Cameron McCoy as well. Their starting edge

808
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 2: Michael Coleman out committed to Sincy. Starting defensive lineman Alex Merritt,

809
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: he's in the portal. They're starting offensive guard Zach Conti

810
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: out committed the Southern miss their tight end, Andres Pasky

811
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 2: committed to Arkansas and he goes big, big splash there

812
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: getting the Eastern Michigan tight end. As far as South

813
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 2: Alabama's concerned, they do have a couple notable absences. Their

814
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,959
Speaker 2: top wide receiver, Colin Lacy, he's good. He had ninety

815
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: one catches over thirteen hundred plus yards. Portal their quarter,

816
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: and you know they're starting running back la Damian Webb.

817
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 2: He has a toe injury. He'll be out. Expect McReynolds,

818
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 2: who got ninety nine snaps to get to start in

819
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 2: Kenroll Bullock who should be back from injury. He had

820
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:46,919
Speaker 2: two hundred snaps. They should share duties there. They're starting

821
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: left tackle Jordan Davis also missed a finale with an injury.

822
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 2: The quarterback situation is still up in the air. I

823
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 2: would assume Carter Bradley's okay, their starter, but he's dealing

824
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 2: with a knee injury. He's been splitting reps in Bowl

825
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 2: practices with both freshman g Lopez and senior Desmond Trotter.

826
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: You know, when I look at this game, so South,

827
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: if you look at South Alabama this year, yeah, they're

828
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 2: at least they're playing at home because there was a

829
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: disappointing year for them based on when Now they're playing

830
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 2: like an impoverished Eastern Michigan team, So I would be

831
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: worried about their motivation. But you know, they're playing at home,

832
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 2: So I think that these are two six and six teams.

833
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 2: I think that they'll care here. I have no idea

834
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 2: how East of Michigan's gonna move the ball. So the

835
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,919
Speaker 2: South Alabama the biggest weakness on the team by far

836
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 2: is their cornerbacks. Fletcher and Robinson on the outside have

837
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 2: just been bad. But East Michigan can't throw the ball.

838
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 2: And now you're down to your backup quarterback, you're not

839
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 2: gonna run on South Alabama. I don't know how East

840
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: Michigan moves the ball. Chris Creighton. These teams are't gonna

841
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 2: beat themselves, so the special teams are gonna be buttoned up.

842
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be penalized, right, so they'll play like

843
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: a clean game here.

844
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: They're excellent tackling.

845
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's tough because it's like you have this

846
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 2: really bad team in a bowl, but they're going to

847
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: actually probably play clean. I just don't know Eastern Michigan scores.

848
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan's secondaries but pretty good. They give up explosive

849
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 2: past plays, but their their secondary their corners have been

850
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 2: much better than anticipated. I would I want to lay it,

851
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 2: but I don't. I don't think I can lay seventeen

852
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: with South Alabama, but I would lean that way. Eastern

853
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: Michigan's really bad, and I would lean to the under

854
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 2: as well. I just don't know Eastern Michigan scores. What

855
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 2: do you see here?

856
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, here's what Eastern Michigan has going for it.

857
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 1: Sixteenth in tackle grading per PFF, thirty second broken tackles allowed,

858
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 1: that helps trim some explosives. Twenty fourth in special teams.

859
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 1: Outside of that, I don't have anything.

860
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: From you from a usually don't get penalized a lot

861
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: That's about it.

862
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 1: Right, and then they and they're you know, they're low

863
00:44:55,520 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: on penalties. I can't make a case for how they're

864
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 1: going to score points, but I'm going to tell you

865
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 1: that I'm taking the last Eastern Michigan number on the board.

866
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 1: And listen, I mean you mentioned that the players that

867
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 1: are out for South Alabama, this is not a clean,

868
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: sweep offensive attack that we think is going to be there.

869
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, quarterback Carter Bradley remains the best,

870
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 1: but I mean it's two skilled position players. Web and

871
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: Lacy are out. Like you mentioned, you know, wide receiver

872
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 1: Jamal Pritchett is up next. In the past game, he

873
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 1: had three hundred and twenty snaps, is wide out ninety

874
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: in the slot. I mean he had two yards per

875
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 1: route run. But that's it. Next up from a running

876
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,760
Speaker 1: back perspectives.

877
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 2: Go to Louisville. So he already committed, so he's not

878
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 2: going to play.

879
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And so I mean they're thin. I mean

880
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: they have Jamal Pritchett at wide receiver, that's it. And

881
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: then running back wise, Ken troll Bullock is up next.

882
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,879
Speaker 1: He's got a pretty high elusive grade, but he didn't

883
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: generate nearly half the explosives of misstackles only about forty

884
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: percent of the snaps that Web got. So, you know,

885
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: the Eastern Michigan defense much better in standard down against

886
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 1: the pass South Alabama eleventh and standard downs EPA, Eastern

887
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: Michigan tenth and allowing explosives in standard downs. So at

888
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 1: least in standard downs, Eastern Michigan, whether they're showing a

889
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: two man front and dropping nine, they just do not

890
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 1: allow any explosives in standard downs whatsoever. Now, passing downs

891
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:19,720
Speaker 1: is where there's an issue for the Eastern Michigan defense.

892
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: But like I said, Web and Lacy, they accounted for

893
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: fifty seven touches on third down, Bullock and Pritchett, who

894
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: are going to play thirty two. So there is a

895
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: lot of inexperience here on third downs about who the

896
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,919
Speaker 1: skilled position players are going to be. There's a lot

897
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,879
Speaker 1: of inexperience when South Alabama gets into scoring position, and

898
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 1: you know, South Alabama was pretty elite and scoring eighteenth

899
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: and finishing drive sixth in red zone TD rate, but

900
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: you've lost the two weapons that have the most third

901
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: down in red zone touches by far, So a little

902
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 1: bit of a learning experience there. I think it's actually good.

903
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 1: The quarterback Austin Smith is not playing here. He fumbled

904
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: the ball seven times this season in rush attempts. I

905
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: mean it's pretty bad. You know, at least Ike Adungwa,

906
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 1: can you know, protect the ball. We haven't seen a

907
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: rash of fumbles there. He can't throw whatsoever. He doesn't

908
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 1: really have a lot of elusive in his run game.

909
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: If this game is played during the regular season, I

910
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:18,240
Speaker 1: would project this South Alabama minus thirteen and a half.

911
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 1: SP plus would have projected at minus fifteen. The market,

912
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: as Stucky and I are talking, is seventeen. I don't think.

913
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 1: I don't see anything happening except this number steaming period.

914
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 1: And if there's buyback on Eastern Michigan, it's for no

915
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: reason because of their players. And I don't think it's

916
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 1: any reason cause South Alabama's best players are already sitting out.

917
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: So if there's steam above seventeen seventeen and a half,

918
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 1: you get me interested any I'm just gonna let it

919
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 1: go thirty minutes for kick Eastern Michigan. I'll take one.

920
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: I'll take one bet, thank you. Yeah, it's just too high.

921
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't le it this is a team I

922
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:55,839
Speaker 2: wanted to fade bad, but I.

923
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: Do, I do? Do you agree in the under Oh

924
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: yeah yeah? I mean, how's Easter Michigan scoring at all?

925
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 2: The East Michigan scoring. They'll be methodical, and then you

926
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 2: can run on Eastern Michigan, which might be just South

927
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 2: Alabama's path here because they're just small up front, which

928
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 2: will keep the clock going. And then eastn Michigan will

929
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 2: clean up, will tackle well, will prevent explosives. You know,

930
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 2: they'll they'll punt well, they won't get penalties.

931
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: South Alabama's not as good as they as good as

932
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 1: what the numbers said, because they lost their best weapons.

933
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's move on. Let's stay Prime time Saturday,

934
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 2: the Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, Nevada, between Utah and Northwestern.

935
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 1: I don't I saw do you take Northwestern?

936
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 2: What do you?

937
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: What are you un about?

938
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 2: No, I'm trying to decide that if there's going to

939
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 2: be a home field, like if Utah fans would actually

940
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 2: travel for a bowl game at Northwestern because it is

941
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 2: an excuse.

942
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: But they played an allegion twice in the Pac twelve Championship.

943
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 1: I mean, this is just you know, or would you

944
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 1: travel back to it for a third time in this

945
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:53,479
Speaker 1: Bowl game.

946
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, there'll be some, but not I don't think huge.

947
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 2: Utah six and a half to seven point favorite here

948
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:06,359
Speaker 2: in the SRS distribution Las Vegas Bowl total forty one

949
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 2: and a half. What let's SRS distribution fastest growing network

950
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 2: of independent roofing and building supply distributors.

951
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 1: Why can't we get back to drinks and lawnmowers like

952
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 1: we are?

953
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 2: We have a boring slate of sponsors this episode, Utah

954
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 2: a lot of news here transfer portal Nate Johnson, quarterback

955
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 2: Bryce and Barnes, he will play in the Bowl, Their

956
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 2: Mikey Matthews, their receiver, their cornerback Broughton. He's listed on

957
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 2: the depth chart though he's in the portal, so I

958
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 2: think he'll play. And then their injuries, and they also

959
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 2: have a bunch of opt outs. They're starting safety col

960
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 2: Bishop Out, starting safety Zioni Vaki, also part time running

961
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 2: back stunt Out. Both declared same with one of the

962
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 2: best receivers male injury wise, their stud defensive lineman Jonah Ellis.

963
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 2: He's out for the year with an injury, and they

964
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 2: lost two important defensive starters earlier in the season in

965
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 2: Lander Barton and one of their edge rushers for no. So,

966
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:09,720
Speaker 2: Utah missing a lot of guys here. Northwestern pretty clean.

967
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 2: You know the Northwestern is gonna care Indram coach named

968
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 2: head coach. They were not expected to get to a bowl.

969
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 2: They will be excited to be here. So I give

970
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 2: them major motivation. As Kyle Whittingham a lot of respect.

971
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 2: He's a ton of success in bowls. I'm assuming a

972
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,799
Speaker 2: lot of his guys ready, but Utah's missing a lot

973
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: of key guys and just they played in the State

974
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 2: of Usually for Pac twelve championships. They were they played

975
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 2: Penn State in the Rose Bowl last year. Now you're

976
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,240
Speaker 2: playing Northwestern in the Las Vegas Bowl in the stadium again,

977
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: A motivation might be tough to get everyone fired up.

978
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: As much as respect as I have for Whittingham, uh

979
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 2: at seven or better. It's all Northwestern here, all the intangibles,

980
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: and Utah is just not look, I mean, missing both

981
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 2: their starting safeties, some guys up front. This offense isn't

982
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 2: very Northwestern. I think has a really good shot of

983
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 2: winning this game. Gotta take them catch a seven plus.

984
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:09,919
Speaker 2: What do you see here?

985
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 1: Kencioni Vaki play all twenty two positions.

986
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 2: We'll find out he's not playing. You opted out, that's right.

987
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 1: Well, you know it's funny though, Bryson Barnes is on

988
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,399
Speaker 1: the actual like physical sheet depth chart, but you're saying

989
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:22,359
Speaker 1: he's not gonna play either.

990
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 2: No, no, he's playing. So it looks like Barnes is

991
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 2: gonna play. I just looked at the depth chart an

992
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 2: hour ago. Barnes is gonna play. Broughton, one of their

993
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:37,839
Speaker 2: corners is gonna play, but ellis Bishop, they're stud other

994
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 2: safety and Vaki in vle there. They all opted out

995
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 2: and they're not on the depth chart, so they won't play.

996
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I think what led me to Northwestern was

997
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 1: not just a motivation factor, but I mean, this is

998
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 1: a rock fight. These are just two teams that want

999
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: to stand in the fifty yard line to punch each

1000
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: other in the face. Ah having And it's funny because

1001
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: they're both flipped on what they do on offense. Right

1002
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 1: Utah is sixteenth and creating a quality drive. They can

1003
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 1: find a way to move the chains and get down

1004
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 1: the field methodically, but they're one hundred and tenth in

1005
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: finishing drives. They've had issues getting points up on the

1006
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 1: board all season. You know, ja Quentin Jackson should be

1007
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: healthy here. He's kind of been a monster and northwesterns

1008
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: d had a very low thirty five percent success rate

1009
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,240
Speaker 1: against inside zone. So if ja Quentin Jackson is healthy

1010
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: and going here, that's good for you.

1011
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 2: That's the one thing I'm worried about is is you

1012
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 2: talk and you top bully them in the treches.

1013
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: Right, because there's nothing in the coverage looks that tell

1014
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 1: me that Bryson Barnes has any kind of advantage over Northwestern,

1015
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 1: which is one of the few teams that plays a

1016
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: heavy amount of cover too. So that'll be a new

1017
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 1: look here for Bryson Barnes. But when I go to

1018
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, you know, I mentioned

1019
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 1: that Utah can get down the field methodically, but they

1020
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: just they just crawl into a hole when you get

1021
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 1: it into a scoring position. That's the exact opposite of

1022
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: the Northwestern Pretty amazing split here, one hundred and eighteenth

1023
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 1: in quality. Drives can't move the chains, can't build a

1024
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 1: methodical can't have a ten play drive twenty sixth. Then

1025
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 1: offensive finishing drives when they get into scoring position, they

1026
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 1: are absolutely money. They've just had only thirty four trips

1027
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 1: into the red zone. They're ranked twenty eighth in red

1028
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 1: zone efficiency. Now, quarterback Ben Bryant, he finished ten to twelve,

1029
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 1: big time throw the turnover worth he plays, he's not

1030
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: going to get. You know, he's going to be fine

1031
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 1: against the cover one and the Cover three. He's horrible

1032
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: against quarters, but he's not going to see that here.

1033
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 1: Utah d plays all cover one, two, and three. So

1034
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,319
Speaker 1: I think Northwestern is going to produce four scoring opportunities.

1035
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 1: They've been elite in the red zone. They've been elite

1036
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: and finishing drives. So I think it's going to be enough.

1037
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 1: In a rock fight, like I said, standing at the

1038
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 1: fifty yard line bunching each other in the face, I

1039
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:52,360
Speaker 1: would definitely want seven. But you know something's going on

1040
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 1: with Utah here. Whittingham is nine and six against the

1041
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: spread and bowl games. That's great and from you know,

1042
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 1: you stand back ten feet and you look at it

1043
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: and you think Kyle Whittingham was great game manager, coach,

1044
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: and big spots. They've lost four bowls in a row. Now,

1045
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 1: they won two PAC twelve titles in this building, but

1046
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 1: they've lost four bowls in a row. For some reason

1047
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 1: Utah has not been able to bring it when it

1048
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,800
Speaker 1: comes to Bowl season, and you know, not sure what

1049
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 1: the conundrum is there, but I agree with you. I

1050
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: was on it early. I would still play it. I'd

1051
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: still even play it at six and a half. I

1052
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: think Northwestern is live in a game. That might be

1053
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 1: pretty boring, but you know, exciting to me.

1054
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the easy post Hawaii

1055
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 2: Bowl shipping company sponsoring the Hawaii bu Come on, we

1056
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: can get more excited than that. Saturday, ten thirty pm

1057
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 2: Eastern on ESPN between Coastal Carolina and San Jose State

1058
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 2: in Honolulu. San Jose State ten ten and a half

1059
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: point favorite, are of under fifty two and a half.

1060
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:59,760
Speaker 2: A lot of news here. Grayson McCall Santase State's quarterback.

1061
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:03,919
Speaker 2: He committed Dency State. I doubt while play. Jared Guest

1062
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 2: also in the portal. It's gonna be Ethan Vasco who

1063
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 2: gets to start. He had two hundred and thirty three

1064
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: snaps this year. They're starting wide receiver Jared Brown. He's

1065
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 2: in the portal, might play. Running back. CJ. Beasley in

1066
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 2: the portal, might play starting linebacker J. T. Kill Him,

1067
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 2: might play So Tim Beck came out today and said

1068
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 2: he's still compiling who's gonna play. So some guys are

1069
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 2: gonna play there in the portal, some guys are not

1070
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 2: kind of important. They're starting nickel back one palms the

1071
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 2: final two games of the injury as well. San Jase

1072
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 2: State they're start starting left tackle Fernando Carmona. He's really

1073
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 2: good portal, he won't play.

1074
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 1: And they're Arkansas.

1075
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Arkansas. That was a good get and better than

1076
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 2: the Eastern Michigan tight end. And then this starting they're

1077
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:47,800
Speaker 2: starting tight end Dominic Mazzotti also in the portal.

1078
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: When I you know, did you see where he went?

1079
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 2: Mazzai, I I can't remember the top of my head.

1080
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 2: Oh did he Yeah? You mass crazy going all the

1081
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 2: way across the country. So when I look at this game,

1082
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 2: Ethan Vasco, when he played, he played well and he

1083
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 2: can run it, and that's the biggest weakness of the

1084
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 2: San Jose State defense. I also, I think, so I

1085
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: like Coast, I want them, I want them. It looks

1086
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 2: like it's gonna come down so much at the betist now,

1087
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: but I think Vasco will be able to run it

1088
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 2: on this team. And then just from a motivation standpoint.

1089
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 2: Santase State really finished the season strong, but they thought

1090
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 2: that they should be in the Mountain West comp in

1091
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 2: the Mountain West Championship. They were just in Hawaii a

1092
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,960
Speaker 2: month ago because this really exciting to them to play

1093
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina and everything I've read, like

1094
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 2: you're going across the country from you know, Conway, South

1095
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,320
Speaker 2: Carolina to Hawaii. A lot of these kids will be

1096
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: the only time they ever go to Hawaii in their life.

1097
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:54,240
Speaker 2: Santa Set was just there, and I think with Vasco

1098
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:56,319
Speaker 2: and if a couple of these other guys that are

1099
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:58,359
Speaker 2: in the portal play, and that signifies to me like

1100
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 2: even those guys in the portal are still to play

1101
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,799
Speaker 2: in the Bowl, Like there was even rooms McCall might

1102
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:05,280
Speaker 2: even play. So I think I think Coastal cares here.

1103
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 2: I think that Vasco was good when he was in.

1104
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 2: He'll be able to run it and you can run

1105
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 2: it on this San Jose State t I know, the

1106
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 2: Coastal d is trash in the San Jose State back

1107
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:22,040
Speaker 2: what's his name should have a lot of success here.

1108
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 2: But hey, miss new left tackle, your tight end running

1109
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,479
Speaker 2: dog catching double digits in Hawaii. I like the chance.

1110
00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:32,919
Speaker 1: I do too. I'm a little bit torn on when

1111
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 1: do we buy this right because obviously I wont eleven

1112
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: and I can see that there's a couple of books

1113
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 1: that as you and I are recording, dip down to

1114
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 1: nine and a half. But do we finally find out

1115
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 1: who's making this twelve hour, one shot flight to Hawaii

1116
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: and maybe we get another boost in the in the

1117
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: points spread. I don't know, but you're right, Ethan Vasco

1118
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 1: to get He's going to get the start he's played

1119
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: in five games. He started Week ten, eleven and thirteen

1120
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 1: three to three, big time throws, the turnover worth he plays,

1121
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 1: and I think the problem is he completed just three

1122
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 1: passes of seventeen attempts with a pressured pocket. The good

1123
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:07,880
Speaker 1: news is San Jose State has one of the lowest

1124
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 1: blitz numbers in all of college football twenty six percent.

1125
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:15,479
Speaker 1: They have average success in creating pressure with that low

1126
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 1: twenty six percent blitz, and they're forty eighth and pass

1127
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 1: rush grading per PFF. That's all great news for Ethan

1128
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 1: Vasco because his biggest problem is hands in his face.

1129
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 1: Vasco thirty four to thirty eight rushing attempts were designed runs.

1130
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 1: He averages about eight yards of carry on the season

1131
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: with just a single fumble. That is something you really important.

1132
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 1: I you're gonna fill in for Grace and McCall, you

1133
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:37,920
Speaker 1: need to be able to run, and he can. San

1134
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 1: Jose State is not good at stopping inside zone forty

1135
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: percent success rate. There is a path for Coastal to

1136
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 1: move the chains and score here.

1137
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 2: Now.

1138
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 1: San Jose State Chavon Cordero, he is not a designed

1139
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 1: run quarterback. He's a scramble quarterback. He always has been.

1140
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 1: They have explosive backs and running back Curry Robinson, Quayley Connelly.

1141
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 1: They each are at least four point two yards after contact.

1142
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 1: Inside zone is a big stre length for San Jose

1143
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 1: State and Coastal was one hundred and thirteenth and defending

1144
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 1: the run and they have average success rate against inside zone.

1145
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 1: So San Jose State is going to be able to

1146
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 1: move the ball here. And there's sixth in rush explosives.

1147
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 1: Coastal does have a solid tackling fundamentals. There's sixteenth and

1148
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: broken tackles allowed. I love that stat because when explosive

1149
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 1: ground offenses get out in space, you have to have

1150
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 1: a defense that just needs one guy to make the tackle.

1151
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:30,280
Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina has that, so you know, both teams heavy

1152
00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 1: rush EPA advantages. I project the total fifty one and

1153
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 1: a half. I prefer the over. It's kind of in

1154
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: a dead zone right now, but like we said, you know,

1155
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: Coastal here is the play. I would love to get eleven.

1156
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 1: I'm just I don't know should we let the list.

1157
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 1: Are you going to buy it now or a?

1158
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, we would buy it now because I think that

1159
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 2: that's my This team might be probably leak might could

1160
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 2: be leaks about some of the Coastal guys that are playing.

1161
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 1: I think I'll join you. I'll buy it now. So

1162
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 1: for everybody out there, it's it's ten and a half. Uh,

1163
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to put it in now. I would I mean,

1164
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 1: I would still buy it down to anything above seventeen.

1165
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 2: Ten ten. I would look for ten, try to get

1166
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 2: ten obviously, But yeah, I think I think they're live

1167
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 2: here too.

1168
01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 1: Why not every other double digit dog is Well, it's.

1169
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 2: A third string quarterback, and the third string quarterbacks all

1170
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 2: they this just.

1171
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 1: Fits the system, right, Can we get this into action labs?

1172
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, third string quarterback, I'm in let's move on to Tuesday,

1173
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,920
Speaker 2: December twenty sixth. Monday will be an NFL day, not

1174
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 2: be early holidays, and Merry Christmas to everybody. Say travels

1175
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 2: if you're headed anywhere. Tuesday, December twenty sixth, two pm

1176
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: Eastern Tuesday afternoon the Quick Lame Bowl. This is ugly

1177
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: between Bowling Green and Minnesota. Is the Quick Clay Bowl.

1178
01:00:44,080 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 2: That's not oil change right yeah, Tire and Auto Center

1179
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 2: in Detroit Ford Field. No weather to worry about here

1180
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 2: despite that. In a fast track total thirty nine and

1181
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 2: a half, Minnesota three and a half point favorite here.

1182
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 2: Bowling Green portal news Jalen Husky their first team all

1183
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 2: Mac corner. One of their other corners Dayshawn Jones, and

1184
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:05,120
Speaker 2: they're starting safety Trent Sims, he just hasn't played since

1185
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:07,120
Speaker 2: Week ten. And then the running back to Ron Heath.

1186
01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 2: He's in the portal. He's importance. He's their leading receiver too,

1187
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 2: So we'll see. I don't think Husky probably won't play,

1188
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 2: but we'll see who else does. For Minnesota. I assume

1189
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 2: Nuban their star safety. It could be a first rounder.

1190
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 2: He's going to opt out, and I haven't seen anything officially,

1191
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 2: but I would not count on him, Revin Brevin span Ford.

1192
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 2: He could also that he's a tight end. He accepted

1193
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 2: a Senior Bowl invite. The biggest news for Minnesota is

1194
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 2: their quarterback situation. Ethan kallak Manus hit the portal, so

1195
01:01:37,000 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 2: did one of their backups dru Viato, which means Cole

1196
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: Kramer was the only one left. He has six snaps

1197
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 2: this year. He didn't want to play, so they had

1198
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 2: to pay him thirty thousand dollars. They got him in

1199
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 2: an I ole money and then he said I'll play

1200
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 2: and it's going to pay for my wedding. So he's playing.

1201
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 2: That does not signify that Minnesota really cares about this game.

1202
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:54,800
Speaker 2: He's a six year senior and he had to be

1203
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 2: paid to play in this game in his last football game.

1204
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: Hamstring coming, yeah, uh, first drive.

1205
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 2: I don't even know who the backup would be, some

1206
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 2: walk on. I assume this game is ugly. Fleck's been

1207
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:14,040
Speaker 2: good in bowls. I'm not laying three and a half

1208
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:20,320
Speaker 2: of Minnesota. Minnesota and seven. Now. I will say Minnesota

1209
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 2: want to just plays so slow, run it, hand it off.

1210
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,080
Speaker 2: We'll see who's available in their backfield, which is double.

1211
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:31,120
Speaker 2: Some injuries and Zach Evans hitt the portal and you

1212
01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 2: can run it on Bowling Green. So like they they'll

1213
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 2: have they'll probably have some just like well, I don't

1214
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 2: know if they'll London points, but they'll be This clock

1215
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 2: will be moving. Minnesota will just be running it as

1216
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 2: a snail so low though in Ford Field for a bowl,

1217
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 2: I can't go under. I got what do you got here?

1218
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:51,439
Speaker 2: I got nothing as of now.

1219
01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 1: Well, you know how I sometimes like to uh smoke

1220
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:57,760
Speaker 1: black tar heroin and bet over is on Iowa and

1221
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,520
Speaker 1: Service Academy football games. No way in hell I would

1222
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:03,400
Speaker 1: bett over here. Let me just put you to rest.

1223
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 1: No way I would bett it over here. Whatsoever? Boy

1224
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 1: Taran Keith being gone from this game means Terran Stewart

1225
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: he's not gonna play either. He broke his foot in

1226
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 1: Week ten against ball State. Now he's confirmed. Terran Stuit's

1227
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 1: confirmed he's gonna play back for Bowling Green next year,

1228
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: but there's no word of his foot, which was completely broken.

1229
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 1: If he's gonna play here, I doubt it now. For Minnesota,

1230
01:03:26,120 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: one positive here is that their havoc allowed can combat

1231
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 1: the aggressiveness of the Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green has

1232
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,920
Speaker 1: been excellent at three three five, their thirteenth in coverage

1233
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:38,680
Speaker 1: per PFF grading. They primarily play quarters and cover three.

1234
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 1: There's not gonna be any explosives in this game. Zero.

1235
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 1: I mean, Minnesota doesn't produce them, they don't allow them.

1236
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:48,080
Speaker 1: Bowling Green doesn't produce them, they don't allow him. Kul

1237
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 1: Kramer is not throwing for any explosives. Minnesota is one

1238
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six in rush EPA, and they lost

1239
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 1: their two best running back. The biggest edge in this

1240
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 1: game is special teams. And this is the thing, like

1241
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 1: everything is so bad and red and the stats and

1242
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 1: so a nept offensively, the only edge in this game

1243
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 1: is special teams. Bowling Green one hundred and twenty fifth

1244
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:15,240
Speaker 1: per SP plus Minnesota's nineteenth. To me that that was

1245
01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 1: the deciding factor in taking Minnesota and the Bullpools straight

1246
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,439
Speaker 1: up for a win. I project the game at five,

1247
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 1: so there's really no value in the spread. I project

1248
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 1: the total thirty seven and a half. There's really no

1249
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 1: value in the total. I even went as far like

1250
01:04:27,480 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 1: I was dying to bet this game. Can I go

1251
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 1: look at previous host Christmas Day games that kick off

1252
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 1: eleven noon, Like even back to what the Saint Pete

1253
01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Bowl. I remember that one. Like I couldn't find

1254
01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:44,880
Speaker 1: a good solid footing for an under or a first

1255
01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 1: half under. So everything is there, not even I mean,

1256
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 1: I'm not even sure you're gonna lie.

1257
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 2: I bet this.

1258
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:53,200
Speaker 1: Both teams are over thirty seconds per play. I just bet.

1259
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:56,680
Speaker 1: Just throw a little bit of money, couch change, chapoli, guac,

1260
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:58,760
Speaker 1: whatever you got. There's a little bit of money on

1261
01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: the under, so you have something you wake up post

1262
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 1: Christmas and play with all your new toys at Santa brought.

1263
01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 1: I don't know that it's the only play you can make.

1264
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 1: But Minnesota has the advantage in special teams. That's the team.

1265
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 1: If you had to make a bet in this game,

1266
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 1: or pick them in a pool and you get to

1267
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:13,280
Speaker 1: pick them late, I would pick I would take Minnesota.

1268
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had to make one bet, it would

1269
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 2: be the under. But a fast track bowling Green's best

1270
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 2: corners out. I assume Minnesota's best safeties out. It's a

1271
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 2: bowl game. Old totals under forty five gone over like

1272
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 2: sixty eight percent historically.

1273
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,440
Speaker 1: I forgot to mention a lot of the Minnesota defensive

1274
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 1: players cut an interview within the last four to eight hours.

1275
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:37,440
Speaker 1: They're really heartbroken that Joe Rossi left defensive coordinator. Joe

1276
01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: Rossi's gone, he's at Michigan State. They're really not happy.

1277
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 1: Do they show up? So there's something there too, Like

1278
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot going on here, but between players

1279
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:50,959
Speaker 1: and coaches and mixed emotions and feelings and guy trying

1280
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:52,920
Speaker 1: to get married but he's being paid thirty thousand to

1281
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 1: come play.

1282
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:58,480
Speaker 2: I just man, yeah, it's that's it's an he'll be one,

1283
01:05:58,800 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 2: all right. Let's move on to later on Tuesday afternoon.

1284
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:05,200
Speaker 2: The serve pro first respondable. If you look, if you

1285
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:08,240
Speaker 2: weren't excited about that game, at least you have Texas

1286
01:06:08,240 --> 01:06:11,000
Speaker 2: State Rice Texas State games. They are at least pretty wild,

1287
01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:15,080
Speaker 2: so'll be played in Dallas, Texas. Texas State's a five

1288
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite over under fifty eight and

1289
01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 2: a half. Big news here for Rice doesn't really have

1290
01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:23,840
Speaker 2: anyone in the portal. Getting six and six important for

1291
01:06:23,880 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 2: them playing in Dallas. They should care. Texas State surprise.

1292
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:30,040
Speaker 2: I think both of these teams should care, and they

1293
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:33,440
Speaker 2: should have close to their full rosters at least. But

1294
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 2: Rice doesn't have quarterback JT Daniels who had to medically retire,

1295
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 2: which means aj Paget will most likely start. You could

1296
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 2: get some reps from the who is their Jenkins their

1297
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:51,320
Speaker 2: third string as well Texas State Rice. Texas State is

1298
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 2: a wild team to try and handicap. They have some

1299
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 2: crazy results. We talked about the seventy seven to thirty

1300
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 2: one win over Texas State. They beat South Alabama fifty

1301
01:07:02,440 --> 01:07:05,480
Speaker 2: two to forty four to close out the regular season.

1302
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 2: What do you see here between Texas State and Rice

1303
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:13,600
Speaker 2: with another backup quarterback?

1304
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 1: I do like Texas State here. TJ. Finley made an

1305
01:07:15,800 --> 01:07:19,800
Speaker 1: announcement that his future. His decision on his future will

1306
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:22,240
Speaker 1: be made after the bowl game. Now hopefully that doesn't

1307
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:24,479
Speaker 1: change he gets an agent and changes his mind. Who knows,

1308
01:07:24,520 --> 01:07:27,000
Speaker 1: but he had a great TD to I int ratio

1309
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 1: this year twenty four to nine. The biggest factor for

1310
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:35,280
Speaker 1: Texas State is slot wide receiver Joey Hobert most targets

1311
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 1: ninety one and by far the most explosive on this

1312
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:42,080
Speaker 1: team two point sixty yards per route run. Now, left guard.

1313
01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 2: Missed the finale. For what it's worth, Yeah.

1314
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll see if he's healthy here, But that

1315
01:07:46,400 --> 01:07:51,320
Speaker 1: would that would certainly, you know, put a little damper

1316
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 1: on the explosiveness that Texas State has now. Also keep

1317
01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:56,520
Speaker 1: an eye on left guard Dorian Strawn an injury watch.

1318
01:07:57,400 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 1: There are two other linemen that had significant snaps of gards,

1319
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 1: so I'm not as worried about the offensive line now.

1320
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:05,840
Speaker 1: Offensive you know, for Texas State fifty five percent run

1321
01:08:06,200 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 1: very successful in standardowns, fifteenth in success rate, and it's

1322
01:08:09,280 --> 01:08:13,640
Speaker 1: really all Ismail Mahati. Ten tds on the season, three

1323
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 1: point six yards after contact, thirty eight runs of at

1324
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:21,000
Speaker 1: least ten yards. He is a rocket version, a living

1325
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:24,719
Speaker 1: version of a rush explosive. Texas State uses heavy inside

1326
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:28,799
Speaker 1: zone high success rate. They create explosives on fifteen percent

1327
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 1: of attempts at inside zone. Rice is fantastic against inside

1328
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,680
Speaker 1: zone sixty percent success rate in stopping it, and they

1329
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 1: only allow explosives in five percent of attempts. So if

1330
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:43,160
Speaker 1: Rice is good at stopping Mehiti from creating explosives, this

1331
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:45,719
Speaker 1: comes down to TJ Finly throwing, which I go back

1332
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:49,519
Speaker 1: Joey Hobert most targets on the team for Texas State,

1333
01:08:50,120 --> 01:08:54,840
Speaker 1: most explosive player is very important that he plays because

1334
01:08:54,920 --> 01:08:57,040
Speaker 1: Rice is going to be able to stop the Texas

1335
01:08:57,080 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 1: State rush. Now, Finley was above average success rate against quarters,

1336
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:03,799
Speaker 1: which is what Rice uses. This makes you know, Hobart

1337
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 1: even more important than the slot because if you know

1338
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:07,840
Speaker 1: anything about quarters, a little bit of man at the front.

1339
01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 1: They play zone in the back, try to confuse you,

1340
01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:11,360
Speaker 1: but you can get it on an underneath route. So

1341
01:09:11,720 --> 01:09:14,320
Speaker 1: I can't even talk about how important you know, Joey

1342
01:09:14,320 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 1: Hobert is to this Texas State offense. Now, when you

1343
01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: go to the other side, AJ Pageant just he doesn't

1344
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:23,920
Speaker 1: have any explosiveness to his running, to his throwing very

1345
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:26,200
Speaker 1: poor in his final two games, look at who Rice

1346
01:09:26,240 --> 01:09:31,760
Speaker 1: played Charlotte, Florida Atlantic AJ Pageant had one big time

1347
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:35,240
Speaker 1: throw and six turnover worthy plays. He was got awful

1348
01:09:35,240 --> 01:09:37,920
Speaker 1: against two teams at any way close to snipping Bowl games.

1349
01:09:38,680 --> 01:09:41,960
Speaker 1: Owl's passing game really struggled against cover one. Texas State

1350
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 1: veers between cover one cover three. Havoc is a huge

1351
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:48,120
Speaker 1: issue here for the offense. They're outside the top one

1352
01:09:48,200 --> 01:09:50,519
Speaker 1: hundred and havoc aloud. And this is why I put

1353
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:52,640
Speaker 1: money down. I have put it in the app for

1354
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:56,840
Speaker 1: Texas State. Havoc allowed is a consistent issue with Rice

1355
01:09:57,240 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 1: they're outside the top one hundred. Texas State is to

1356
01:10:00,240 --> 01:10:03,160
Speaker 1: twenty and creating defensive havoc. I was kind of shocked.

1357
01:10:03,200 --> 01:10:05,920
Speaker 1: The Texas State's defense is the reason that I made

1358
01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:08,640
Speaker 1: this bet. Florida Atlantic. Think about this last game that

1359
01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 1: the Owls, the Owls Rice Owls had against Florida Atlantic.

1360
01:10:12,520 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 1: Florida Landek generated fifteen pressures and eleven quarterback hurries in

1361
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 1: the season finale against AJ Paget. Texas State is fifteenth

1362
01:10:20,360 --> 01:10:23,200
Speaker 1: and pass rush top thirty and cumulative pressures on the season.

1363
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:26,640
Speaker 1: Texas State's to play based on the defense alone. If

1364
01:10:26,720 --> 01:10:29,800
Speaker 1: Joey Hobert plays, it makes them more explosive. I would

1365
01:10:29,840 --> 01:10:32,280
Speaker 1: feel even more comfortable with my bet. But based on

1366
01:10:32,320 --> 01:10:34,400
Speaker 1: the defense and havoc and getting in the backfield and

1367
01:10:34,400 --> 01:10:36,679
Speaker 1: how bad AJ Pageant has been his final two games,

1368
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 1: this is Texas State for me.

1369
01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:40,960
Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to the final bowl of

1370
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 2: the show, and it's the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Those two

1371
01:10:44,000 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 2: bowls didn't excite you, I wouldn't blame you, but this

1372
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:48,840
Speaker 2: one should be at least an exciting watch. Between Kansas

1373
01:10:48,880 --> 01:10:53,639
Speaker 2: and UNLV nine pm Eastern on ESPN Tuesday Night in Phoenix,

1374
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:57,400
Speaker 2: Arizona Kansas twelve and a half point favorite total sixty

1375
01:10:57,560 --> 01:11:01,000
Speaker 2: four and a half. Kansas couple offensive line injuries to

1376
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:03,519
Speaker 2: monitor with Cable doing four who were banged up in

1377
01:11:03,520 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 2: the finale, D line engage keys and wide receiver Tanaka

1378
01:11:06,920 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 2: Scott and not a huge loss of They hit the

1379
01:11:08,400 --> 01:11:12,600
Speaker 2: portal UNLV one of their depth backs, Cordy Rees and

1380
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:16,200
Speaker 2: the portal starting safety Cameron Jenkins portal and then they're

1381
01:11:16,240 --> 01:11:18,320
Speaker 2: starting state other starting safety jet E lad he didn't

1382
01:11:18,320 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 2: play in the conference championship game. I and if there

1383
01:11:23,680 --> 01:11:26,040
Speaker 2: was rumors around Jordan Maiva hitting the portal, I don't

1384
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 2: I think that that was just around the VYU BYU

1385
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:33,559
Speaker 2: backup quarterback having the same last name. So yeah, kind

1386
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:38,639
Speaker 2: of messy U n LV offense month to prepare Kansas offense. Also,

1387
01:11:38,720 --> 01:11:40,640
Speaker 2: they don't have their offensive coordinator. How big of an

1388
01:11:40,680 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 2: issue is that? What do you see here between Kansas

1389
01:11:42,680 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: and I'm.

1390
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:46,120
Speaker 1: Not sure it's that big of a point that everybody's

1391
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:50,719
Speaker 1: making now. Is Andy kotal Nicky an unbelievable offensive coordinator? Yes?

1392
01:11:50,840 --> 01:11:53,920
Speaker 1: Is Penn State gonna benefit? Well, yeah, if James Franklin

1393
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 1: allows him to cook. Yeah, but they went.

1394
01:11:57,040 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 2: Much Wait until the previous before we even go there.

1395
01:12:01,680 --> 01:12:03,160
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, let's get into Tom Allen as

1396
01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 1: a defensive coordinator. So Lance Leipold went out and got

1397
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 1: Jeff Grimes immediately from BYU. Jeff Grimes one of the

1398
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:13,679
Speaker 1: most respected offensive coordinators in the game, former offensive line

1399
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:16,720
Speaker 1: coach at LSU OC at Baylor when they were good.

1400
01:12:17,120 --> 01:12:20,240
Speaker 1: Now at BYU, lance Leipold went and got him and

1401
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:23,920
Speaker 1: told everybody he's going to have his hand in the bowl.

1402
01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 1: Prep our system, our structure, our signals, our lingo, none

1403
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:32,240
Speaker 1: of it changes. Jeff Grimes knows it all. It's the

1404
01:12:32,240 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 1: same as what Andyktalnikki used. So to me, that's a

1405
01:12:35,840 --> 01:12:38,519
Speaker 1: really big leg up for the Kansas offense. The fact

1406
01:12:38,560 --> 01:12:40,800
Speaker 1: that you lost one of the best, that maybe the best,

1407
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:44,600
Speaker 1: hottest offensive coordinator in the market and you're able to

1408
01:12:44,640 --> 01:12:47,439
Speaker 1: replace him with such an established one and not change anything.

1409
01:12:47,960 --> 01:12:50,760
Speaker 1: It's a big It's a big boost for Kansas. So

1410
01:12:51,080 --> 01:12:53,120
Speaker 1: there's gonna be heavy rush both these teams. I'm going

1411
01:12:53,160 --> 01:12:55,519
Speaker 1: to say this and pick the team. Well, I'll spoil it.

1412
01:12:55,600 --> 01:13:01,160
Speaker 1: The answers both heavy rush, heavy rush, sixty percent, multiple personnel,

1413
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:05,840
Speaker 1: heavy prestat motion. That's this game. That both offenses are

1414
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:09,040
Speaker 1: going to do it, which defense can stop it? Neither,

1415
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:13,679
Speaker 1: So I mean UNLV rush EPA eight, Kansas one hundred

1416
01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 1: and ninth and defending it Kansas thirty seventh and rush

1417
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:20,320
Speaker 1: EPA twelfth and pass EPA even Jason Beans, they're creating explosives.

1418
01:13:21,040 --> 01:13:24,000
Speaker 1: UNLV is one hundred and twenty seventh and defensive pass EPA.

1419
01:13:24,120 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 1: So where you know, un LV can attack on the ground.

1420
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: The reason I like Kansas in this game, which I'm

1421
01:13:30,640 --> 01:13:32,640
Speaker 1: not betting pre game, I'm gonna bet it live. But

1422
01:13:33,080 --> 01:13:36,000
Speaker 1: the reason why Kansas wins this game is because they

1423
01:13:36,000 --> 01:13:38,360
Speaker 1: have two areas of explosiveness. They can go ground and

1424
01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:41,479
Speaker 1: pass you. UNLV really only has it on the ground.

1425
01:13:42,280 --> 01:13:46,800
Speaker 1: So the under I'm still I'm still researching on the

1426
01:13:46,800 --> 01:13:49,640
Speaker 1: total because if Grimes wants to keep the pace the

1427
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 1: codal Nikki had, which was twenty nine point five seconds

1428
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:56,240
Speaker 1: per play, which is ultimately pretty slow. People think Kansas

1429
01:13:56,280 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 1: is fast, They're actually not. They're just more explosive. Grimes

1430
01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:01,760
Speaker 1: decides he wants to sit on the ball with a

1431
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:04,920
Speaker 1: two score lead, this thing can go under, but I

1432
01:14:05,000 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 1: might take a first st half over. This should be

1433
01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:13,520
Speaker 1: fireworks all the way explosives everywhere. But from a side perspective,

1434
01:14:13,560 --> 01:14:15,960
Speaker 1: I project the game thirteen, so there's just really nothing there.

1435
01:14:15,960 --> 01:14:17,280
Speaker 1: I mean, at fourteen, I take you, and I'll be

1436
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:21,839
Speaker 1: at eleven I take Kansas. But ultimately, you know, Merry Christmas, everybody.

1437
01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:24,640
Speaker 1: This is a perfect night game to sit back or

1438
01:14:24,720 --> 01:14:26,800
Speaker 1: a cocktail, get a Scotch with a single cube, and

1439
01:14:26,960 --> 01:14:28,759
Speaker 1: live bet that shit out of this game.

1440
01:14:29,640 --> 01:14:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, this would be a great live betting game. Pregame

1441
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:33,760
Speaker 2: at twelve and I'd lean you LV, just because I

1442
01:14:33,800 --> 01:14:36,599
Speaker 2: don't think I think that they can keep up. I'll

1443
01:14:36,600 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 2: either defet's gonna give any stops. So yeah, in a

1444
01:14:40,040 --> 01:14:41,960
Speaker 2: bowl game, catch a double ditch with an offensive I

1445
01:14:42,000 --> 01:14:44,479
Speaker 2: think can move the ball. That's the side that I

1446
01:14:44,520 --> 01:14:47,600
Speaker 2: would lean to. All right, those are twelve Bowls and

1447
01:14:47,680 --> 01:14:51,240
Speaker 2: Bowl Betting Preview Part two. As I mentioned before, both

1448
01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 2: Betting previ Part three will be out next Tuesday, and

1449
01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:58,519
Speaker 2: then Part four will be out on Thursday. Before we

1450
01:14:58,520 --> 01:15:00,320
Speaker 2: get out here, though, let's go now.

1451
01:15:02,560 --> 01:15:04,719
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1452
01:15:05,640 --> 01:15:07,719
Speaker 2: All right, Let's make this pretty simple. Let's do favorite

1453
01:15:07,880 --> 01:15:11,519
Speaker 2: side of the slate that we covered, favorite total, and

1454
01:15:11,560 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 2: then throw out any any money lined Doll. I'll kick

1455
01:15:15,640 --> 01:15:17,800
Speaker 2: things off. Let's start with the first down. Let's go

1456
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:21,360
Speaker 2: favorite side. I'm gonna go Coastal Carolina plus ten and

1457
01:15:21,400 --> 01:15:24,120
Speaker 2: a half against San Jose State. I think they'll be

1458
01:15:24,160 --> 01:15:26,280
Speaker 2: excited to be here. Not sure on San Jose State,

1459
01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:29,080
Speaker 2: who does have a couple of key opt outs. Santa

1460
01:15:29,120 --> 01:15:30,800
Speaker 2: se State was just in Hawaii, thought they should be

1461
01:15:30,800 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 2: in the Mountain Wets Championship. And I think, let's say

1462
01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:36,639
Speaker 2: we're continuing with a third string quarterback trend with Ethan

1463
01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:39,519
Speaker 2: Basco look good when he played, and Coastal Carolina should

1464
01:15:39,520 --> 01:15:40,760
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball against the San Jose

1465
01:15:40,880 --> 01:15:43,840
Speaker 2: State rundy running dog catching double digits in a bowl game,

1466
01:15:44,200 --> 01:15:45,760
Speaker 2: and I think that they'll be excited to be there.

1467
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:47,280
Speaker 2: I think a few of these guys that are in

1468
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:49,920
Speaker 2: the transfer port will play as well. So give me

1469
01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:53,080
Speaker 2: the chance catching ten and a half to going through

1470
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:57,320
Speaker 2: the other bowls really quickly before you go the other

1471
01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 2: sides that I would have considered, I like some Utah State,

1472
01:16:04,439 --> 01:16:11,759
Speaker 2: Air Force, Northwestern, and Yeah, those are the other sides

1473
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:15,160
Speaker 2: that I would have considered for this vote. I'll go

1474
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:17,639
Speaker 2: my favorite side, Coastal Carolina. How about you favorite side.

1475
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:19,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Coastal Carolina, but I'm gonna pivot. I'll

1476
01:16:19,680 --> 01:16:22,120
Speaker 1: go Texas State, and I cannot believe the defense is

1477
01:16:22,160 --> 01:16:24,680
Speaker 1: what made me jump on this. I figured it'd be

1478
01:16:25,200 --> 01:16:27,360
Speaker 1: the Texas State offense, which when we find out what

1479
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:29,839
Speaker 1: wide receiver Joey Hobart's going to do, that will determine

1480
01:16:29,840 --> 01:16:34,240
Speaker 1: whether Texas State is extremely impotent and explosive or if

1481
01:16:34,240 --> 01:16:37,599
Speaker 1: they're just moderately. The defense is what really makes this here.

1482
01:16:38,040 --> 01:16:41,439
Speaker 1: Rice has had issues protecting their quarterback all season long.

1483
01:16:41,479 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 1: I mean JT. Daniels has medically retired. AJ Pageant had

1484
01:16:45,320 --> 01:16:48,720
Speaker 1: fifteen pressures in eleven quarterback hurries against Florida Atlantic to

1485
01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:51,760
Speaker 1: close the season. Texas State is one of the best

1486
01:16:51,840 --> 01:16:54,160
Speaker 1: havoc makers in all of the nation, and they are

1487
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:56,720
Speaker 1: going to be all over that Rice offensive line. Then

1488
01:16:56,800 --> 01:16:58,639
Speaker 1: you throw in the fact that the Texas State offense

1489
01:16:58,680 --> 01:17:01,240
Speaker 1: has it all from a success rate from an EPA perspective,

1490
01:17:02,040 --> 01:17:03,280
Speaker 1: I like this number on the bobs.

1491
01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:06,840
Speaker 2: Good stuff there. Let's go to a second down our

1492
01:17:06,840 --> 01:17:12,240
Speaker 2: favorite total. I'm gonna go Eastern Michigan South Alabama under

1493
01:17:13,600 --> 01:17:16,000
Speaker 2: I look, this East of Michigan team is not gonna

1494
01:17:16,000 --> 01:17:19,479
Speaker 2: beat itself. It's gonna prevent exposed as tackle wells we

1495
01:17:19,520 --> 01:17:21,759
Speaker 2: talked about, And I just don't see how the offense

1496
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:25,120
Speaker 2: can have any success backup quarterback here, they can't really

1497
01:17:25,120 --> 01:17:26,799
Speaker 2: throw the ball, and that's how you have to attack

1498
01:17:26,840 --> 01:17:29,360
Speaker 2: the South Alabama defense. You have to attack through outside corners.

1499
01:17:29,520 --> 01:17:32,160
Speaker 2: East of Michigan is simply not capable of doing so.

1500
01:17:33,240 --> 01:17:36,960
Speaker 2: I just don't see how any sort of sustained success.

1501
01:17:37,240 --> 01:17:40,439
Speaker 2: So give me the under between South Alabama and Eastern Michigan.

1502
01:17:40,439 --> 01:17:41,760
Speaker 2: How about you? Where you going favorite Total?

1503
01:17:42,120 --> 01:17:45,040
Speaker 1: I'm going Georgia Tech UCF over. We're getting a primetime

1504
01:17:45,080 --> 01:17:47,760
Speaker 1: game on a Friday night, UCF pretty clear. I mean

1505
01:17:47,800 --> 01:17:49,800
Speaker 1: the bounce house is just essentially gonna move a couple

1506
01:17:49,800 --> 01:17:52,439
Speaker 1: about an hour down down the road. There are some

1507
01:17:52,479 --> 01:17:55,720
Speaker 1: defensive portal names here to Corey Thornton is out for

1508
01:17:55,840 --> 01:17:59,200
Speaker 1: UCF nine PBUs on the air. Georgia Tech is not

1509
01:17:59,240 --> 01:18:01,240
Speaker 1: going to be without edge Kyle Cannard, who led the

1510
01:18:01,240 --> 01:18:05,360
Speaker 1: team in pressures. But if you could diagram the two

1511
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:09,280
Speaker 1: most rush explosives offenses going up against the two worst

1512
01:18:09,360 --> 01:18:13,200
Speaker 1: rush defending teams, it would be this Georgia Tech and

1513
01:18:13,240 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 1: Central Florida. There are massive advantages for Haines King on

1514
01:18:16,280 --> 01:18:19,599
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech running his inside outside zone reed, same thing

1515
01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:21,960
Speaker 1: for John Rees plumbling on the other side for Central Florida.

1516
01:18:22,360 --> 01:18:25,680
Speaker 1: This game should be a consistent highlight reel that may

1517
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:27,559
Speaker 1: take about three to four minutes on Sports Center to

1518
01:18:27,560 --> 01:18:29,080
Speaker 1: get through. There's going to be so many of them,

1519
01:18:29,120 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 1: so give me the over. I'd caution maybe at sixty nine.

1520
01:18:33,920 --> 01:18:36,479
Speaker 1: It's already up to sixty seven, but there's no defense

1521
01:18:36,479 --> 01:18:37,919
Speaker 1: it's going to be playing this game whatsoever.

1522
01:18:38,360 --> 01:18:40,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be one of the more exciting watches

1523
01:18:41,680 --> 01:18:44,880
Speaker 2: of bowl season. And then, lastly, let's go with a

1524
01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 2: moneyline dog shot. I'll throw out Northwestern. I think Northwestern

1525
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:52,960
Speaker 2: really cares about this game. You talk he opt outs

1526
01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:55,559
Speaker 2: playing in Vegas again. I know witting him is great,

1527
01:18:55,640 --> 01:18:58,680
Speaker 2: but that offense is just so underwhelming. I worry a

1528
01:18:58,680 --> 01:19:00,960
Speaker 2: little bit about the trenches. But this game should be

1529
01:19:01,000 --> 01:19:05,400
Speaker 2: lower scoring, higher variance makes for a good moneyline pop

1530
01:19:05,680 --> 01:19:08,640
Speaker 2: giving Northwestern, which should be super excited to play in

1531
01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:11,880
Speaker 2: this game and now playing for their interim turned full

1532
01:19:11,920 --> 01:19:15,599
Speaker 2: time head coach. Let's go with the ex Pats Cats

1533
01:19:18,680 --> 01:19:20,240
Speaker 2: have aut your money on dog you want to throw out?

1534
01:19:21,280 --> 01:19:23,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would have been mine. Northes would have been mine.

1535
01:19:23,360 --> 01:19:25,160
Speaker 1: That's all right, let's go ahead and pivot over. I

1536
01:19:25,200 --> 01:19:26,920
Speaker 1: do like Duke. I think seven and a half is

1537
01:19:26,960 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 1: way too many and Grayson Loftus has not been bad

1538
01:19:29,400 --> 01:19:33,200
Speaker 1: at quarterback whatsoever. Troy. You know they've lost some of

1539
01:19:33,200 --> 01:19:35,639
Speaker 1: their best explosive They're not a methodical team. They rely

1540
01:19:35,720 --> 01:19:38,439
Speaker 1: on explosives. And the Duke defense is you know, the

1541
01:19:38,479 --> 01:19:40,240
Speaker 1: four to two five. I know Mike Elco has left.

1542
01:19:40,280 --> 01:19:43,080
Speaker 1: I know a laundry list of players have left. But

1543
01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half is simply too many points. And

1544
01:19:46,240 --> 01:19:48,400
Speaker 1: I think you know, Duke does not beat themselves. And

1545
01:19:48,400 --> 01:19:51,439
Speaker 1: Grayson Loftis has been better than advertised, although he doesn't run.

1546
01:19:52,240 --> 01:19:54,720
Speaker 1: This is a much faster Duke team. This is a

1547
01:19:54,800 --> 01:19:57,839
Speaker 1: Duke team that now passes more than it runs, especially

1548
01:19:57,840 --> 01:19:59,760
Speaker 1: over the last two games, especially with pace that could

1549
01:19:59,760 --> 01:20:02,400
Speaker 1: catch Troy off guard. A team that relies on explosives,

1550
01:20:02,400 --> 01:20:04,040
Speaker 1: if they don't get them, they could be in trouble.

1551
01:20:04,800 --> 01:20:07,000
Speaker 1: I do like Northwestern, but let's pivot. We'll take Duke

1552
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:08,120
Speaker 1: is my money line dog.

1553
01:20:09,240 --> 01:20:12,080
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us twelve bowls. I'm

1554
01:20:12,080 --> 01:20:16,240
Speaker 2: a little under ninety minutes to help you get prepared

1555
01:20:16,400 --> 01:20:21,639
Speaker 2: for bold betting season. It's crazy out there. Just accept

1556
01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:24,840
Speaker 2: that you're gonna have to deal with some bad beats. Well,

1557
01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:27,360
Speaker 2: I'd promise someone on Twitter we'll talk about bad beats.

1558
01:20:27,560 --> 01:20:30,080
Speaker 2: Come with three three bad beats for next podcast. We'll

1559
01:20:30,120 --> 01:20:33,719
Speaker 2: cover them in part three. They don't think your worst

1560
01:20:33,760 --> 01:20:36,040
Speaker 2: of all time, just funny ones or ones that you

1561
01:20:36,080 --> 01:20:38,160
Speaker 2: want to Relif you're gonna have some bad beats, you're

1562
01:20:38,160 --> 01:20:40,439
Speaker 2: gonna get portaled in some games. It's just the way

1563
01:20:40,479 --> 01:20:43,200
Speaker 2: it is. Hopefully you end up on more of those

1564
01:20:44,080 --> 01:20:46,560
Speaker 2: to your side than not. Sometimes that's just how the

1565
01:20:46,600 --> 01:20:50,639
Speaker 2: cookie crumbles onto the next bowl. As always, thanks for listening,

1566
01:20:50,720 --> 01:20:52,639
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining me. As always, context to our producer

1567
01:20:52,640 --> 01:20:54,680
Speaker 2: on the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of

1568
01:20:54,680 --> 01:20:56,400
Speaker 2: you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe,

1569
01:20:56,439 --> 01:20:59,120
Speaker 2: subscribe to a friend, tod enemy watch on YouTube, subscribe,

1570
01:20:59,240 --> 01:21:02,160
Speaker 2: hit that like button. At least five star review. I'll

1571
01:21:02,200 --> 01:21:04,320
Speaker 2: do a do a bunch of giveaways at some point

1572
01:21:04,320 --> 01:21:06,400
Speaker 2: either part three or four. You can say, whatever is

1573
01:21:06,439 --> 01:21:07,800
Speaker 2: the a five star review? Do this really help us out?

1574
01:21:07,840 --> 01:21:10,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you this weekend for

1575
01:21:10,960 --> 01:21:14,799
Speaker 2: BBOC Live and then next Tuesday for bull Betting Preview

1576
01:21:14,800 --> 01:21:17,320
Speaker 2: Part three. Good luck, but I'll have your waders. Cheers,

1577
01:21:17,560 --> 01:21:18,120
Speaker 2: peace out.

1578
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:22,160
Speaker 1: It's the most squammer time.

1579
01:21:22,920 --> 01:21:25,799
Speaker 3: It's the most squad time.

1580
01:21:26,520 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 2: Call the mole.

1581
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:43,280
Speaker 3: Squammer Time Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1582
01:21:43,680 --> 01:21:46,519
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1583
01:21:46,800 --> 01:21:49,400
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1584
01:21:49,520 --> 01:21:50,320
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler