WEBVTT - Super Micro Auditor EY Resigns, Citing ‘Integrity’ Concerns

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business.

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<v Speaker 1>Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got to check out the worst performer in the

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<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred, and that would be super

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<v Speaker 2>Micro Computer shares absolutely cratering after Ernst and Young resigned

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<v Speaker 2>as the auditor ceting concerns about the company's governance and transparency.

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<v Speaker 2>We got with us Caroline Hye. She's co host of

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV eleven Wall Street Time each day.

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<v Speaker 2>She joins us here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. Bailey

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<v Speaker 2>Lipschultz also with us. He's Bloomberg News equities reporter. He

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<v Speaker 2>joins us from our Chicago bureau. Caroline, I want to

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<v Speaker 2>start with you because I want to remind everyone, or

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<v Speaker 2>I want you to remind everyone how we got here

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<v Speaker 2>today with super Micro, because it's not the first time

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<v Speaker 2>that smci's accounting practices have been under scrutiny.

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<v Speaker 3>No, that was in twenty twenty. In fact, if you

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<v Speaker 3>look back as to when the last time the shares

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<v Speaker 3>fell as much as they have today, well that was

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<v Speaker 3>back in twenty eighteen, when a Business Week report was

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<v Speaker 3>out that they'd been had seen their motherboards and their

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<v Speaker 3>servers hacked by the Chinese. They're not unaccustomed to controversy,

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<v Speaker 3>shall we say. But twenty twenty was when they actually

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<v Speaker 3>paid a fine seventeen million dollar penalty to end the

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<v Speaker 3>investigation of the SEC into concerns about accounting. At that point,

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<v Speaker 3>it was alleged that they'd been basically seeing their revenue

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<v Speaker 3>come in faster than naturally it had been. Now we

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<v Speaker 3>fast forward, and now it seems to be that we

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<v Speaker 3>go back two months in August, we get the Hindenburg

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<v Speaker 3>report that is citing in particular an ex employee who

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<v Speaker 3>worries about accounting. Again, Hindenburg puts out a short report

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<v Speaker 3>saying that we're worried about the accounting red flags. They

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<v Speaker 3>call it the stock tumbles. Then we get a DOJ

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<v Speaker 3>reports of a DOJ investigation into all of this. And

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<v Speaker 3>now finally Ey not wanting their name to be associated

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<v Speaker 3>with these financial reports. I mean, that is the last

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<v Speaker 3>thing you ever want to hear about an accounting firm

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<v Speaker 3>involved in a company that you have, Chaz and.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, pretty us stunning culmination of that timeline here. Shares

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<v Speaker 4>currently down about thirty two percent right now.

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<v Speaker 5>And Billy Lipschel's cone in on the.

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<v Speaker 4>Fact that Nate Anderson, of course of Hindenburn Research, he

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<v Speaker 4>must be having a pretty good day today.

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<v Speaker 2>He must be having a good day, Kitty.

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<v Speaker 6>He's having really a good few years, depending what timeframe

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<v Speaker 6>you want to use, whether you go back to the

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<v Speaker 6>Nicola fraud that he called out or a number of

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<v Speaker 6>his other big time hits. When you look at the

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<v Speaker 6>report from Hindenburg really kind of laying out those red

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<v Speaker 6>flags to Caro's point, But the big thing is that

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<v Speaker 6>was the day before they delayed their ten K filing,

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<v Speaker 6>So it has been a flurry of issues for the company.

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<v Speaker 6>And I know this is a name that Hindenburger in

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<v Speaker 6>a number of other investors both on the long end

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<v Speaker 6>short side, have been keeping a close eye on. Again,

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<v Speaker 6>just given the ascent, the rapid ascent that we saw

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<v Speaker 6>over the last few years and what we've seen really

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<v Speaker 6>play out even back since March when it hit its

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<v Speaker 6>all time high, baily.

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<v Speaker 2>Hard to answer counterfactule here, But you know, Katie and

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<v Speaker 2>I were kind of talking about this ahead of the

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<v Speaker 2>interview when we were preparing for this, in the idea

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<v Speaker 2>that shorts certainly play an important role here, even though

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<v Speaker 2>they're heavily criticized. Do you think we'd be talking about

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<v Speaker 2>this or do you think Ey would have resigned today

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<v Speaker 2>had that Hindenberg report not come out?

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<v Speaker 6>I think it's impossible to note tim But when you

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<v Speaker 6>look at it just chronologically, Hindenberger report comes out, the

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<v Speaker 6>next day, they come back and say, all right, we're

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<v Speaker 6>going to delay our filings because we need a little

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<v Speaker 6>bit more time to go through them.

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<v Speaker 2>Fast forward a month to Caro's point.

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<v Speaker 6>Then you have the reports of the DOJ in query

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<v Speaker 6>and investigation, and now ultimately Ey resigning, and you look

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<v Speaker 6>at the letter that Ey wrote. Whether or not Hindenburg

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<v Speaker 6>kick started this, I think can be debated, But if

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<v Speaker 6>you look at the kind of outlay and how those

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<v Speaker 6>events have played out, whether it was a short report

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<v Speaker 6>or whether this would have eventually gotten out, it does

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<v Speaker 6>seem at least on the margin to point towards Nate

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<v Speaker 6>Anderson's we're actually kickstarting what we've seen play out.

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<v Speaker 2>Carolyn, remind us where SMCI is in the chip ecosystem here,

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<v Speaker 2>because I mean, whenever talk about these companies, I feel

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<v Speaker 2>like I need some sort of like whiteboard that where

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<v Speaker 2>they play me both is TSMC.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, just think of them as encapsulating in video. They

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<v Speaker 3>basically take the Invidia chips, they circulate them in metal,

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<v Speaker 3>and they help install your server into your data center.

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<v Speaker 3>So ultimately a lot of companies and clients go to

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<v Speaker 3>a super Micro rather than directly to an Nvidia to

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<v Speaker 3>get all of their computes sorted out. They're in the

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<v Speaker 3>same lane as Dell. And that is why we're seeing

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<v Speaker 3>Dell shoot higher today because analysts saying that this is

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<v Speaker 3>their moment to take market share from the likes of

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<v Speaker 3>super Micro. And to Bailey's point, this is why it

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<v Speaker 3>hit an all time high earlier this year. This is

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<v Speaker 3>why we saw the shares at one point up fourfold

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<v Speaker 3>because they were integral to this whole AI Darling, Searge

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<v Speaker 3>and now well we're only up about what's I think,

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<v Speaker 3>sixteen percent year to date if you're looking at it,

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<v Speaker 3>and ultimately, with to see them trying to fight against

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<v Speaker 3>this narrative, we've got to go and make clear that

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<v Speaker 3>the company is saying it doesn't expect the issues will

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<v Speaker 3>lead to a revision and previously issued financials, and they

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<v Speaker 3>have begun to look for another auditor. But the share

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<v Speaker 3>price tells at all. And if you're looking at certain things,

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<v Speaker 3>we're down thirty two percent, with the lowest since January

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<v Speaker 3>the eighteenth of twenty twenty fourth who basically erased all

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<v Speaker 3>of this ye's games.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, big time and great point on Dell. You take

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<v Speaker 4>a look at shares right now, up about seven point

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<v Speaker 4>seven percent, and Bailly, you think about, of course, this

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<v Speaker 4>enormous I'm not gonna call it a bubble, but all

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<v Speaker 4>of this enthusiasm around some of these AI names, obviously

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<v Speaker 4>that's CATENIV for some of these short sellers. I want

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<v Speaker 4>to talk a little bit about Luhman because we're talking

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<v Speaker 4>about this great year that Nate Anderson is having over

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<v Speaker 4>at Hindenburg Research.

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<v Speaker 5>Then you think about Luhman.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course you had who was It was Caersdale who

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<v Speaker 4>took a short position in Luhmen a couple months ago.

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<v Speaker 4>And Luhman has really defied that. They just signed another

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<v Speaker 4>partnership today with AWS. The shares have done incredible over

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<v Speaker 4>the past couple months. So even if you have some

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<v Speaker 4>of these big run ups, I guess it just speaks

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<v Speaker 4>to how difficult a business short selling is.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, Katie.

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<v Speaker 6>But the one thing to keep in mind, and this

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<v Speaker 6>is kind of the hot debate around short sellers, is

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<v Speaker 6>we don't know when these active as short sellers actually

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<v Speaker 6>cover their positions, and we don't know whether they're taking

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<v Speaker 6>out and betting against the company via put options and

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<v Speaker 6>set about right shorting the stocks.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's hard to be.

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<v Speaker 6>Able to say whether or not, even with a super

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<v Speaker 6>micrown mind, Handenberg actually maximized their potential return because for

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<v Speaker 6>all intentsive purposes, they could have covered immediately after and

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<v Speaker 6>that would not be disclosed. But to your point with Luman,

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<v Speaker 6>with a company like Symbotic, with all of these other

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<v Speaker 6>AI flavors, if you will, that have drawn the ire

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<v Speaker 6>of short sellers, whether they're quiet investors betting against a company,

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<v Speaker 6>or activists who come out with these lengthy reports with

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<v Speaker 6>a number of allegations, it does speak back to to

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<v Speaker 6>your point, the difficulty for the long term short seller

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<v Speaker 6>to be successful, because if you go back just a

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<v Speaker 6>little while ago, you look at a company like Herbal Life,

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<v Speaker 6>that actman versus Icon narrative and how that played out,

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<v Speaker 6>and you kind of can ascribe that, at least at

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<v Speaker 6>some level to a number of these other companies that

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<v Speaker 6>have drawn scrutiny of those activists.

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<v Speaker 3>Someone's shorlting this stock, though it's twenty percent of the

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<v Speaker 3>outside float, is currently shulted. Someone out there is still

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<v Speaker 3>wedding against it head.

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<v Speaker 4>And they're probably feeling pretty good today. It is a

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<v Speaker 4>good reminder though that who knows, of course, is Hindenberg.

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<v Speaker 5>Is still in this stock.

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<v Speaker 4>But Carolin, when it comes to super Micro, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>as you mentioned, this timeline of these sort of accounting

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<v Speaker 4>questions goes back to at least twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 5>What is next for this story? What should we keep

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<v Speaker 5>an eye on from here?

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<v Speaker 4>Because I don't know, you think about the reputational damage

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<v Speaker 4>that this company is going.

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<v Speaker 5>Through right now, it seems like a rocky road ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>November fifth, same day as then, is when they're coming

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<v Speaker 3>out with an updated business report. So ultimately it can't

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<v Speaker 3>be their financials because they're delaying their financials, but they

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<v Speaker 3>are going to come to the market to their investors

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<v Speaker 3>and give an update on November the fifth, So all

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<v Speaker 3>eyes on that, all eyes on whether they get another accountant.

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<v Speaker 5>They're trying to bury that news with the election.

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<v Speaker 3>Would you dare say such thing, Katie?

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<v Speaker 2>I know, let's not forget that this company was added

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<v Speaker 2>to the S and P five hundred this year, so

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<v Speaker 2>you know, which is a very prestigious thing, and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it gets into it.

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<v Speaker 3>Was delisted previously, so that on its old accounting issues.

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<v Speaker 3>And actually that is something that's being brought up again

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<v Speaker 3>by analysts. I think Wujinhome over Bloomberg Intelligence is saying, look,

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<v Speaker 3>they need to focus on great corporate governance. We may

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<v Speaker 3>require a leadership change. And they're also saying, look, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>we will start to see an issue of delisting once again.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what I'm wondering if those folks over at S

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<v Speaker 2>and P are having like second guesses about adding it

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<v Speaker 2>to the S.

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<v Speaker 5>And P three nineteen billion dollar valuation.

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<v Speaker 2>Still even after today. Yeah, all right, a big thank

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<v Speaker 2>you to Caroline Hydeen Bailey Lipsheltz.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio and tele.

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<v Speaker 2>It is Bloomberg Business Week. That's Katie greifeld in for

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<v Speaker 2>Carol Nasser this afternoon. As we mentioned earlier, as slew

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<v Speaker 2>of economic data today showed that the economy expanded at

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<v Speaker 2>a robust pace in the third quarter. Inflation adjusted GDP

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<v Speaker 2>increased at a two point eight percent annualized rate. A

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<v Speaker 2>big part of that has to do with small business.

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<v Speaker 2>The US Chamber of Commerce reminding us that small businesses

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<v Speaker 2>are responsible for employing close to half of the workers

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<v Speaker 2>in the US and they represent more than forty percent

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<v Speaker 2>of GDP. Needless to say, super important to our economy.

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<v Speaker 2>For a temperature check of small business, we welcome back

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<v Speaker 2>Sharon Miller. She's president and co head of Business Banking

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<v Speaker 2>at Bank of America. She joins us from San Antonio.

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<v Speaker 2>Always good to check in with you, Sharon. You guys

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<v Speaker 2>do this report over at Bank of America about small business.

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<v Speaker 2>You get into the demographic details of how small business

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<v Speaker 2>owners are feeling, how they're doing, what they see coming

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<v Speaker 2>up ahead. Looking through the data, seems to me people

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<v Speaker 2>are pretty optimistic right now.

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<v Speaker 7>They are mean, they did maintain a very positive outlook.

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, as we surveyed the clients, seventy eight percent

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<v Speaker 7>told us that they expect their revenue to increase over

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<v Speaker 7>the next twelve months. So to me, that is a

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<v Speaker 7>good sign and there is a positive sentiment out there.

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<v Speaker 4>And Sharon I also thought it was interesting that, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>within this positive sentiment you think about what is still

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<v Speaker 4>an issue, and topics such as inflation, such as supply

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<v Speaker 4>chain issues come up, and especially with supply chain chains.

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<v Speaker 4>We still talk about inflation all the time, but supply

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<v Speaker 4>chain issues. It's a good reminder that a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>small business owners are still struggling with that.

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<v Speaker 7>They are I mean, inflation does remain the number one

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<v Speaker 7>concern in our survey of small business owners at baut

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<v Speaker 7>nine and ten told us that they saw inflation as

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<v Speaker 7>an issue for their business. Your right, supply chain does

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<v Speaker 7>pop up there, although it has gone down in the

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<v Speaker 7>list of concerns, but there are still concerns around supply chain.

0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.960
<v Speaker 7>And I'd also say to the political environment that came

0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.440
<v Speaker 7>in number two, which makes sense. We're in the middle

0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.440
<v Speaker 7>of an election year, and in fact, next week, you know,

0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.200
<v Speaker 7>we will know the election results and so from there

0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:11.760
<v Speaker 7>we normally see this. I mean, we've been doing this

0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:16.240
<v Speaker 7>survey over ten years and every election cycle there seems

0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:19.480
<v Speaker 7>to be you know, concern and then post that regardless

0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:23.040
<v Speaker 7>of who wins, there's certainty and people seem to move

0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:24.080
<v Speaker 7>on with their business.

0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:29.200
<v Speaker 2>So I mentioned that there's really interesting demographic information in

0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.920
<v Speaker 2>the survey. You guys break it down. You look at

0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.360
<v Speaker 2>Black and Latino business owners, you look at women business owners.

0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.160
<v Speaker 2>How do business owners vary based on their demographic data.

0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:43.960
<v Speaker 7>Well, I mean when we talk about women business owners,

0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.800
<v Speaker 7>for example, I mean they are implementing expansion strategies at

0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.080
<v Speaker 7>a high rate, with sixty five percent focusing on growing

0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:55.640
<v Speaker 7>their customer base. When you talk about Hispanic Latino business owners,

0:11:55.679 --> 0:12:00.640
<v Speaker 7>their confidence in the economy despite labor shortages, encourage to

0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:05.040
<v Speaker 7>obtain funding. In fact, ninety four percent of Hispanic Latinos

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 7>survey respondents told us that they expect to obtain funding

0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 7>for their business to grow. And so, you know, there

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:15.440
<v Speaker 7>are some differences, but certainly there's definitely some optimism out there,

0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:21.240
<v Speaker 7>especially in Hispanic Latino communities and also Black African American communities.

0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.400
<v Speaker 4>And there's also optimism in local economies. One of the

0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.680
<v Speaker 4>takeaways that I found interesting was that sixty six percent

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 4>that their local economy will improve, compared to sixty percent

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.679
<v Speaker 4>believing that the national economy will improve. Those numbers are

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 4>fairly close sixty six to sixty percent, but still an

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.600
<v Speaker 4>interesting difference there it is.

0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.319
<v Speaker 7>And I think, you know, as you think about smaller businesses,

0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.120
<v Speaker 7>and I heard as we let into this segment, just

0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:50.040
<v Speaker 7>thinking about how important small business is to the US economy.

0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.840
<v Speaker 7>But generally speaking, I mean, small businesses are in our

0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.840
<v Speaker 7>local communities and so you know, they're very close to

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.760
<v Speaker 7>their local communities. I think it's important that we support

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:02.360
<v Speaker 7>small businesses. And when you think about, you know, what

0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.360
<v Speaker 7>they have more control over. I do think that we

0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:09.840
<v Speaker 7>tend to see more optimism in local economies and in

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 7>their own ability to grow their business than maybe that

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 7>they think about the national or the worldwide landscape.

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.600
<v Speaker 4>And Sharon put some of these numbers into historical context

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 4>for us, like you said, you know, you've been doing

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.439
<v Speaker 4>the survey for about ten years. Now, how do the

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 4>numbers this year compared to the past several years.

0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 7>Well, we've seen, you know, I think that the revenue expectations,

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 7>I mean, business owners in general are more optimistic, and

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.560
<v Speaker 7>this year we did find a slight uptick as you

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:43.040
<v Speaker 7>think about their plans for hiring. In fact, over half

0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 7>plan to hire over the next twelve months, which is

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 7>an increase. Despite labor shortages, despite finding the right skilled labor,

0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:54.200
<v Speaker 7>people are still hiring for their business. They are expanding

0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 7>and those numbers have increased, and so you know, we

0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 7>have seen an uptick in the optimism of business owners

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 7>and I do think that this year's report is really

0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 7>a good sign for the next twelve months to come.

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 2>Sharon Miller, President, co head of Business Banking at Bank

0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 2>of America, joining us from San Antonio. A lot of

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:16.320
<v Speaker 2>optimism coming out of that survey.

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 4>A lot of optimism. Yeah, definitely interesting to hear about

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 4>some of the nitty gritty, especially I really love the

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.320
<v Speaker 4>point on the local economy versus the national economy.

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Can't Us

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 1>on Apple car Play and and brout Auto with a

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app or want us Live on YouTube?

0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, full disclosure. People who know me, you know I

0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 2>ride bikes a lot.

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 5>You certainly do.

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:47.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm a big swift too. Zwift is well known among

0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 2>cyclists as a way to train or compete when it's

0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 2>too cold or rainy to go on your bike outside,

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 2>or if you want to get a quick workout. In

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.960
<v Speaker 2>the Appcnnect, cyclists riding their bikes inside to real time

0:14:57.080 --> 0:14:59.880
<v Speaker 2>races and virtual worlds through a mobile device, a computer

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.320
<v Speaker 2>or an Apple TV. Think about it like kind of

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 2>like gaming with your bike. The company is raised six

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 2>hundred and twenty million dollars from backers including KKR, Premiere Holdings,

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 2>Amazon's Alexa Fund, and more, giving it a market value

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 2>of more than a billion dollars. We've got with us

0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 2>Eric min the co founder and CEO of Swift. He

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 2>joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Welcome,

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 2>How are you?

0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 8>Yeah?

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 2>Good, thank you for having me. Good to have you back.

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 2>A lot has happened since you last joined us on Bloomberg, Katie.

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you saw this, we got to

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 2>do this virtual ride together.

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 5>No, I remember it well. It was pretty cool. Yeah,

0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 5>I thought you were going to wear the outfit.

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm not wearing.

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 5>You got your helmet over there.

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.520
<v Speaker 2>I got to helmet here. Don't need that for Swift.

0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:42.280
<v Speaker 2>But there's a lot has happened. There was a there

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 2>was a round of layoffs earlier this year a big

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.360
<v Speaker 2>hardware pivot, but I think you being back as sole

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 2>CEO of the company is sort of among the biggest news.

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:53.840
<v Speaker 2>Give us an update. How's the business going.

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 8>The business is doing really well. I mean it's it's

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 8>it's doing better than we expected. We've had some change

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 8>earlier this year and we've pivoted, and really the focus

0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.120
<v Speaker 8>for the business has been really around like what can

0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 8>we do to supercharge our community, I think, which is

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 8>the most valuable asset that we have. So we are

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 8>a leaner team and we're finding that we're moving faster.

0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 8>Of course we're doing less, but we're you know, we

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.640
<v Speaker 8>get to focus on the things that I think we'll

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.240
<v Speaker 8>really move the needle for us. So the business is

0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.840
<v Speaker 8>doing great, and you know, we launched new hardware this

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:36.680
<v Speaker 8>year and it's it's surprisingly doing very very well, and

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.600
<v Speaker 8>you know, over the next few months is really the

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 8>height of our season.

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.200
<v Speaker 2>I do want to explain to people who might not

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 2>know what Swift is. When Eric says new hardware, we're

0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 2>talking about an actual like bike that Zwift has released.

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 2>It's called the Swift Ride smart bike, and typically the

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 2>way that people use Swift as they hook up their

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.000
<v Speaker 2>own bike to what's called a virtual or what's called

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 2>a trainer, and one that can be hooked up to

0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 2>a virtual world using Bluetooth or another type of connection.

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:09.560
<v Speaker 2>So instead of using or you're using a you're still

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 2>using a trainer with the smart bike. But what's the

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 2>idea behind a thirteen hundred dollars bike?

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I mean the price point is an important one.

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.760
<v Speaker 8>It's probably less than half or third of what you

0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.119
<v Speaker 8>would typically pay for a smart bike, So we've i

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:28.919
<v Speaker 8>think innovated on price. We've also developed and designed it

0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.119
<v Speaker 8>in a way that you can leverage existing hardwad that

0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.880
<v Speaker 8>you've already invested in. So what you have is essentially

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:38.199
<v Speaker 8>a bike frame that slides onto a trainer that you

0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.159
<v Speaker 8>probably already purchased. The other piece of innovation that we

0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.840
<v Speaker 8>pushed about a year ago is what we call the ziftcog.

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:50.240
<v Speaker 8>And you know, for non cyclis, it's very complicated to understand,

0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.199
<v Speaker 8>like what kind of gears you need to put on

0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 8>these trainers.

0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:55.400
<v Speaker 2>We got rid of all that.

0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.439
<v Speaker 8>With a single cog, and then what we layered on

0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 8>top of that is a a little device that can

0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 8>control and create the gears virtually. And you know, Our

0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.880
<v Speaker 8>goal is to of course bring down the cost of

0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.199
<v Speaker 8>the hardware to get onto is with, but also just

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.680
<v Speaker 8>to simplify the onborne experience, and that is how we

0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:20.160
<v Speaker 8>open up the market. All our studies have suggested that

0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.600
<v Speaker 8>those are the two drivers for holding us back from

0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 8>growing even more.

0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.000
<v Speaker 4>Well, let's talk a little bit more about your business.

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.119
<v Speaker 4>I assume you make money off of a subscription based

0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 4>sort of membership. There Where are you when it comes

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:35.879
<v Speaker 4>to membership. I think the last time you guys spoke,

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.040
<v Speaker 4>you said around a million members. How has that number changed?

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:43.160
<v Speaker 8>We're over a million. I think the pandemic that wonders

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.400
<v Speaker 8>for us. It also had it was a double edged

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.240
<v Speaker 8>sword because you know, of course, like many companies, we

0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:52.360
<v Speaker 8>thought the growth would continue forever. But what we're finding

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:56.160
<v Speaker 8>today is that it's these these are we're growing. We're

0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 8>certainly growing on a number of different levels, both revenue

0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:03.679
<v Speaker 8>and and subscribers. But I think, you know, to double

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 8>your business like we did during the pandemic is just

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.160
<v Speaker 8>an unrealistic expectation. So we've adjusted our business to that.

0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 2>One thing that you've also done within the last year

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 2>is actually increased prices. I believe since the first time

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 2>since twenty seventeen, So for years it costs about fifteen

0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.080
<v Speaker 2>bucks a month. Now it's twenty dollars per month. If

0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:27.120
<v Speaker 2>not an annual membership, that's a monthly membership. How did

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:28.960
<v Speaker 2>members respond? What has churn been like?

0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:32.160
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, I don't think anyone likes price increases,

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.639
<v Speaker 8>let's be honest, right, But I think I certainly we

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.280
<v Speaker 8>feel very good about it. The value that we offer

0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:42.720
<v Speaker 8>to our community at twenty dollars a month and two

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:46.399
<v Speaker 8>hundred for the year, is is really good value given

0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:48.199
<v Speaker 8>you know, all the other products that are out there

0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 8>and the experiences that we offer. But you know, look,

0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.960
<v Speaker 8>things have gotten more expensive since since twenty seventeen. We've

0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:00.680
<v Speaker 8>not raised the prices, and I remember reading from community

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:04.200
<v Speaker 8>members saying, hey, you should have just increased prices incrementally. Well,

0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 8>we would have actually collected more revenues had you done that.

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:10.639
<v Speaker 8>But we felt that the timing was right for us

0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:15.119
<v Speaker 8>to increase the price. And I think the customers have

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:16.760
<v Speaker 8>largely voted with their wallets.

0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:18.720
<v Speaker 2>Any more price shikes on the horizon.

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 8>Look, you know, things, I would never say that there

0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:27.639
<v Speaker 8>will never be future price hikes, you know, I think

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.680
<v Speaker 8>the five dollars move on a relative basis is big.

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.399
<v Speaker 8>If we do have future price PRIs I think we

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.240
<v Speaker 8>should do it more incrementally, like I see from Netflix

0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:37.200
<v Speaker 8>almost every year.

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:40.160
<v Speaker 4>Well, i'd love to talk about, you know what went

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:44.200
<v Speaker 4>into that, Like Tim mentioned first price sikes since twenty seventeen,

0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:46.440
<v Speaker 4>what did that decision.

0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:46.679
<v Speaker 5>Try look like?

0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:50.040
<v Speaker 4>Because you think about everything that's happened since twenty seventeen,

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.240
<v Speaker 4>it's exhausting and it's been a really strange economic moment.

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:59.639
<v Speaker 8>Well, we delayed and delayed our price increase, and I

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:02.479
<v Speaker 8>we've done this twice before. Every time we've done a

0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:05.840
<v Speaker 8>price increase. The you know how we feel about it

0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:09.640
<v Speaker 8>is we should have done it much earlier. And you know, look,

0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 8>things do get more expensive. Our costs have gone up,

0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:15.480
<v Speaker 8>and we haven't passed that on to our customers. The

0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:19.240
<v Speaker 8>product is vastly improved since twenty seventeen, So we feel

0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:21.320
<v Speaker 8>really good about it and we stand behind it when

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 8>we you know, we were committed to making that change.

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's actually one thing that I that I haven't

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:28.960
<v Speaker 2>talked about the heads of display the world. There's been

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.240
<v Speaker 2>a lot of changes to the gaming environment since I

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:35.320
<v Speaker 2>started swifting, which was during the pandemic. Personally, I don't

0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:37.800
<v Speaker 2>see myself. That's the main way I actually ride and

0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 2>get exercised because I have two little kids and going

0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:42.159
<v Speaker 2>on a five hour bike ride on a Saturday like

0:21:42.200 --> 0:21:42.720
<v Speaker 2>I used to do.

0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 5>Your wife isn't into that.

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:47.040
<v Speaker 2>She's just not feasible right now. So swift is where

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:49.680
<v Speaker 2>I do it. You run a lot here I do.

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:54.000
<v Speaker 2>Are you a Strava person? No, okay, that's interesting, she's

0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:54.919
<v Speaker 2>a garment person.

0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:57.320
<v Speaker 5>I feel like I killed a line of questioning. You

0:21:57.320 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 5>were about to go.

0:21:58.000 --> 0:21:59.880
<v Speaker 2>That's fine, I'm going to turn this way. I'll talk

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:03.119
<v Speaker 2>about it. You did. One thing I noticed recently with

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:07.800
<v Speaker 2>Strava is that an AI sort of integration that they're

0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:12.280
<v Speaker 2>experimenting with. How are you using AI? You recently launched

0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 2>for me recently virtual Ride Partners, which I find a

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:17.840
<v Speaker 2>really helpful thing for me. So this is like a

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:22.280
<v Speaker 2>pacer that will kind of go at a specific speed

0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:24.879
<v Speaker 2>that you can keep up with, and it's really helpful

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:28.879
<v Speaker 2>for training and for riding. How are you thinking about AI?

0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:34.719
<v Speaker 8>So we already use AI in our engineering development, so

0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 8>that's already been happening. I think in terms of how

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 8>we can expose these types of technology for consumer related features.

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.600
<v Speaker 8>We're absolutely thinking about that, and the two obvious places

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 8>will be the conversational you know AI experience that you know,

0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:54.919
<v Speaker 8>for example, Strava is doing, and I think that's going

0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:58.480
<v Speaker 8>to be table stakes for many many products. You know,

0:22:58.560 --> 0:23:01.640
<v Speaker 8>it's not going to be something you know, so innovative,

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:05.320
<v Speaker 8>we have to offer it. And I think the other

0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:09.159
<v Speaker 8>opportunity for us and others is just using machine learning

0:23:09.200 --> 0:23:12.800
<v Speaker 8>to to figure out exactly what to offer in terms

0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:16.640
<v Speaker 8>of content and when and with whom. That I think

0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:18.080
<v Speaker 8>is the next innovation.

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 2>That's more like an Instagram timeline approach, where it like

0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:23.159
<v Speaker 2>serves you what you think you are yes.

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:25.720
<v Speaker 8>Yes, yes, And I think you know it can factor

0:23:25.800 --> 0:23:29.400
<v Speaker 8>into you know, your usage behavior, who your friends are,

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:32.679
<v Speaker 8>when you know, what kind of events you like, what

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:35.440
<v Speaker 8>kind of fitness you have today, and we can serve

0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:37.480
<v Speaker 8>up the right content at the right time. I think

0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:42.320
<v Speaker 8>that that is innovation that no one has really you know,

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 8>produced yet, but that's an exciting opportunity for us.

0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 4>What about AI and coaching, I asked, because I think

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:54.040
<v Speaker 4>about myself, you know, my world revolves around me, and

0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:56.439
<v Speaker 4>the thing that I miss about college is having a

0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:58.119
<v Speaker 4>coach and I was part of a running club, but

0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:01.520
<v Speaker 4>it was just too much, so I sort of like

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:03.520
<v Speaker 4>making up my own training plans. I could see a

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 4>lot of value in having an AI coach be able

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:09.480
<v Speaker 4>to see your stats, see what you're doing, and suggest workouts.

0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 8>Let's face it, if you can afford it, you'd rather

0:24:11.680 --> 0:24:14.520
<v Speaker 8>have a human coach right right, because they will motivate

0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:16.960
<v Speaker 8>you more than any any tool that you have in

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:18.800
<v Speaker 8>front of you. But I think the two pieces that

0:24:18.840 --> 0:24:21.679
<v Speaker 8>I just mentioned to you, which is like a conversation

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:25.040
<v Speaker 8>about how you did with your workout, and then the

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:28.600
<v Speaker 8>AI to tell you exactly what you should recommend next,

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 8>those two pieces should in theory represent you know, a

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:36.320
<v Speaker 8>replacement for an expensive coach, and that I think is

0:24:36.320 --> 0:24:40.439
<v Speaker 8>a solution for you know, the ninety five percent of

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:44.400
<v Speaker 8>the customer base. Yeah, the five percent should and will

0:24:44.440 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 8>continue to invest in, you know, human coaches.

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:49.720
<v Speaker 2>Two hundred to two hundred and fifty dollars three hundred

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 2>dollars a month more by the way, for a coach,

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:55.359
<v Speaker 2>a coach that you've never met. And just like puts,

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:56.520
<v Speaker 2>you know thatts in.

0:24:56.520 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 4>Swift and so I mean I just I you know,

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:00.840
<v Speaker 4>I'm not like I'm not going to the Olympics.

0:25:01.119 --> 0:25:02.480
<v Speaker 2>You did go to the Olympics.

0:25:02.080 --> 0:25:02.720
<v Speaker 5>There, I did not.

0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:06.000
<v Speaker 4>I didn't compete at I'm devastated to say. It feels

0:25:06.000 --> 0:25:09.080
<v Speaker 4>like a steep bill for my ambitions.

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:13.520
<v Speaker 2>Eric, I'm wondering about competition here because you guys were

0:25:14.160 --> 0:25:16.440
<v Speaker 2>pretty much the only game in town for a while

0:25:16.600 --> 0:25:19.680
<v Speaker 2>with what you did. At least Copy Trainer was around before.

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:23.240
<v Speaker 2>But just this week, Training Peaks bought Indie Vello and

0:25:23.280 --> 0:25:26.080
<v Speaker 2>now they have Training Peaks Virtual. I remember before I

0:25:26.200 --> 0:25:28.680
<v Speaker 2>joined Strava, I used Training Peaks and I quit Training

0:25:28.680 --> 0:25:31.359
<v Speaker 2>Peaks during the pandemic to go to Swift excuse me,

0:25:31.400 --> 0:25:36.080
<v Speaker 2>not Strava. How are you thinking about competition right now.

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:40.919
<v Speaker 8>Well, we have a lot of competition. It's not surprising

0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:46.119
<v Speaker 8>and we've had it all along. I think the Training

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 8>Peaks and indievelop makes absolute sense for Training Peaks. I mean,

0:25:50.560 --> 0:25:54.639
<v Speaker 8>we are partners with many different training platforms that are

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:57.840
<v Speaker 8>out there. We launched something called the Training API, and

0:25:57.960 --> 0:26:03.560
<v Speaker 8>we've onboarded multiple training apps. So we continue to will

0:26:03.600 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 8>continue to be a platform where coaches and these coaching

0:26:08.400 --> 0:26:13.480
<v Speaker 8>apps can push activities and event you know, activities where

0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:16.240
<v Speaker 8>you can actually do the event on swift, so that

0:26:16.280 --> 0:26:20.080
<v Speaker 8>won't change. It'll be really and I don't know the

0:26:20.119 --> 0:26:23.280
<v Speaker 8>strategy behind training peaks and what they'll do with in

0:26:23.359 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 8>development doesn't really change what we need to focus on

0:26:26.760 --> 0:26:30.880
<v Speaker 8>and our focus is really to do everything to continue

0:26:30.920 --> 0:26:34.639
<v Speaker 8>to add value and features for a community. That's really

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:36.280
<v Speaker 8>the important asset that we have.

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:39.000
<v Speaker 4>Wellt's talk a little bit more about the future. This

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 4>is something I love to ask private companies. Are you

0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:45.639
<v Speaker 4>thinking about IPO? Would you be open to either acquiring

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 4>a business or being acquired? What are you thinking about

0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:48.800
<v Speaker 4>along those lines?

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:54.400
<v Speaker 8>I think we should always look at opportunities to acquire merge.

0:26:55.160 --> 0:26:57.600
<v Speaker 8>Those are opportunities we should be looking at all the time.

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:01.880
<v Speaker 8>In terms of you know, you know, what is our

0:27:02.440 --> 0:27:05.679
<v Speaker 8>end goal in terms of like a liquidity event, I

0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 8>think that just will take some time. But I think

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:11.960
<v Speaker 8>we all have aspirations of being a public listic company.

0:27:12.280 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 8>Whether that happens you know, in three years or five years,

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:18.159
<v Speaker 8>I don't know whether you know, we do that alone

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:20.760
<v Speaker 8>or we do it with with others. You know, these

0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:23.440
<v Speaker 8>are all I think things time will only tell and

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:29.280
<v Speaker 8>how that unfolds. But absolutely our board, my co founders,

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 8>my management team, and investors have big aspirations for this business,

0:27:34.560 --> 0:27:38.240
<v Speaker 8>so that hasn't changed. It's just timing, is everything right.

0:27:38.600 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 2>I mentioned that you raised more than six hundred million

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:44.240
<v Speaker 2>dollars since inception. Last time you and I spoke, you

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 2>said you didn't need to raise money in the near future. Yeah,

0:27:47.359 --> 0:27:49.399
<v Speaker 2>how's the cash balance looking right now?

0:27:49.400 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 8>We're very fortunate. We we we didn't spend all that capital,

0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:59.000
<v Speaker 8>so we have a pretty strong balance sheet. I don't

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:01.920
<v Speaker 8>think we need to raise any more capital. That's helpful,

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 8>and that gives us ever ever, I just don't yeah ever,

0:28:06.920 --> 0:28:09.879
<v Speaker 8>which is great. It gives us a lot of optionality.

0:28:11.160 --> 0:28:13.520
<v Speaker 8>But you know, look, having just a lot of cash

0:28:13.520 --> 0:28:16.600
<v Speaker 8>doesn't help either. We need to deploy it and smartly,

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:20.360
<v Speaker 8>and we need to think of how we can leverage

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:22.240
<v Speaker 8>that to build a business.

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:25.280
<v Speaker 2>Last question, how do you you know the cycling business?

0:28:25.320 --> 0:28:27.720
<v Speaker 2>There's a ceiling there. There are only so many people

0:28:28.320 --> 0:28:31.439
<v Speaker 2>who want to be riding bikes in their basement. How

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:32.480
<v Speaker 2>do you get people like Katie?

0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:35.960
<v Speaker 8>Well, first you have to get rid of the basement

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:38.880
<v Speaker 8>or the garage thing. And that's why we launched the ride.

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:43.720
<v Speaker 8>It's beautiful, it's in white. We deliberately picked white instead

0:28:43.760 --> 0:28:47.640
<v Speaker 8>of black because in our testing it resonated really well

0:28:47.680 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 8>with the with women.

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:49.280
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting.

0:28:49.360 --> 0:28:53.240
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, and I think you know, we're not just going

0:28:53.240 --> 0:28:57.280
<v Speaker 8>after cyclists. We're going after people who want to exercise

0:28:57.480 --> 0:29:01.000
<v Speaker 8>and who want to get fit and cycling the indoor

0:29:01.000 --> 0:29:03.239
<v Speaker 8>bike and cycling in general happens to be just a

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:05.880
<v Speaker 8>great activity. You can do it for a long time.

0:29:05.920 --> 0:29:09.120
<v Speaker 8>It's low impact, and you have access with your hands,

0:29:09.120 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 8>and you can get engaged with an experience like Swift,

0:29:12.240 --> 0:29:15.360
<v Speaker 8>So it's not just for cyclist. We hope that the

0:29:15.400 --> 0:29:17.719
<v Speaker 8>bike really opens up the addressable.

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:20.320
<v Speaker 2>Market for us. Eric Min always good to see you.

0:29:20.440 --> 0:29:21.800
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, thank you for coming.

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:23.760
<v Speaker 2>By when you're in New York. Really appreciated. Eric Min

0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 2>is the co founder and CEO of Swift. He joins

0:29:26.480 --> 0:29:31.200
<v Speaker 2>us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. All right, Well,

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.320
<v Speaker 2>one person who didn't expect to be talking to the

0:29:34.360 --> 0:29:37.200
<v Speaker 2>CEO of Swift when she came on our program today

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:40.120
<v Speaker 2>is Amanda Robello. She's head of Extrackers Sales over at

0:29:40.240 --> 0:29:43.360
<v Speaker 2>US on Shores over at DWS Group. She normally focuses

0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 2>on China, but I found out from Eric that you're

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 2>actually a swifter too.

0:29:47.240 --> 0:29:48.600
<v Speaker 9>I'm gonna convert Katie.

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, yeah, it's for women as well.

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:55.080
<v Speaker 9>It's fantastic and I definitely had some really wonderful experiences

0:29:55.120 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 9>during the pandemic. I was already into cycling. It helped

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:00.240
<v Speaker 9>me train for a ride from London to Paris when

0:30:00.280 --> 0:30:02.760
<v Speaker 9>I was sure shut time. So yeah, I'm all for it.

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:03.960
<v Speaker 5>That is so cool.

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:05.960
<v Speaker 2>You never know who you're going to meet in the

0:30:06.000 --> 0:30:06.720
<v Speaker 2>green room, you.

0:30:06.640 --> 0:30:10.680
<v Speaker 5>Never know, the interactive broker studio, you never know.

0:30:10.760 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 2>You never know. Amanda, Let's talk a little bit about

0:30:13.880 --> 0:30:16.120
<v Speaker 2>what's going on in China. You were on with us,

0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:19.080
<v Speaker 2>or I should say with Carol and Barry at future

0:30:19.120 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 2>Proof back in September, and a lot has changed in

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:27.200
<v Speaker 2>terms of how investors are thinking about China, how the

0:30:27.280 --> 0:30:31.520
<v Speaker 2>Chinese government is using stimulus money or not using stimulus

0:30:31.600 --> 0:30:34.200
<v Speaker 2>money to stimulate different parts of the economy. What's your

0:30:34.280 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 2>view on investing in China right now.

0:30:36.360 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, it's incredible the tailwinds that we've seen in China

0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:41.080
<v Speaker 9>over the past couple of weeks. So we've actually been

0:30:41.160 --> 0:30:44.280
<v Speaker 9>very fortunate to see one point six billion dollars worth

0:30:44.280 --> 0:30:46.640
<v Speaker 9>of AUM go into our asher ETF It's kind of

0:30:46.640 --> 0:30:49.440
<v Speaker 9>a price discovery tool in the market for lack of

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:52.920
<v Speaker 9>like a decent future basically. But what's interesting is that

0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:56.520
<v Speaker 9>we haven't just seen fast money you go into the ETF.

0:30:57.280 --> 0:30:59.640
<v Speaker 9>Really it's down to the fact that you know, I

0:30:59.640 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 9>think in the year we did see some of the

0:31:01.800 --> 0:31:07.080
<v Speaker 9>wire houses, for example, maybe neutralize their bullish tone on China.

0:31:07.840 --> 0:31:10.240
<v Speaker 9>The Chinese government has been very aware and has continued,

0:31:10.240 --> 0:31:12.720
<v Speaker 9>you know, over the past decade with things like the

0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:16.920
<v Speaker 9>Connect program to while it doesn't really need foreign investment,

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:19.240
<v Speaker 9>you know, to try and stimulate that a little bit more.

0:31:19.640 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 9>And so in light of the fact that they have

0:31:21.400 --> 0:31:27.000
<v Speaker 9>been like outflows internationally for internationally from Chinese equities, you know,

0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:30.160
<v Speaker 9>very aware of maybe some of the cynicisms that they

0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 9>have been amongst Western investors in China. We all know

0:31:34.560 --> 0:31:37.640
<v Speaker 9>that the GDP growth rate had beforehand been six point

0:31:37.680 --> 0:31:40.920
<v Speaker 9>five percent. That was reduced down to five percent, and

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:43.840
<v Speaker 9>there were some concerns about whether the five percent was achievable.

0:31:44.440 --> 0:31:46.960
<v Speaker 9>So these stimulus measures are very much about confirming to

0:31:47.080 --> 0:31:50.360
<v Speaker 9>the market that that is feasible. That started off about

0:31:50.360 --> 0:31:52.520
<v Speaker 9>three weeks ago at the you know, prior to the

0:31:52.520 --> 0:31:57.720
<v Speaker 9>Golden Week where we had cuts on the reserve requirement

0:31:57.920 --> 0:32:01.120
<v Speaker 9>ratio and then also the seven days repo rate as well.

0:32:01.400 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 9>And so what that did was that freed up about

0:32:03.400 --> 0:32:07.160
<v Speaker 9>one trillion new one of bank capital. What's been really

0:32:07.200 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 9>interesting is that that's not just been about corporate lending

0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:12.760
<v Speaker 9>for example, or you know, commercial real estate lending. It's

0:32:12.800 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 9>also trickled down to the retail market. And so what

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:17.880
<v Speaker 9>you've seen then is that mortgage rates ended up being

0:32:17.920 --> 0:32:21.640
<v Speaker 9>cut typically by around fifty basis points or so, and

0:32:21.680 --> 0:32:23.920
<v Speaker 9>that had freed up about one hundred and fifty billion

0:32:24.000 --> 0:32:27.120
<v Speaker 9>U one for the retail investor ultimately spend.

0:32:27.360 --> 0:32:29.760
<v Speaker 4>So, well, let's talk a little bit about China in

0:32:29.800 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 4>the context of the US election.

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, just six days away.

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:34.920
<v Speaker 2>Uh, the countdown.

0:32:35.480 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 5>I know, I've been counting down since like forty seven days.

0:32:38.760 --> 0:32:43.040
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, for some reason, this week just seems really long.

0:32:43.240 --> 0:32:43.600
<v Speaker 6>It does.

0:32:44.480 --> 0:32:45.240
<v Speaker 9>It's only Wednesday.

0:32:46.640 --> 0:32:50.840
<v Speaker 4>It does feel like a long week. Next week is

0:32:50.880 --> 0:32:52.480
<v Speaker 4>going to feel long as well. And you think about,

0:32:52.560 --> 0:32:57.040
<v Speaker 4>of course, these two parties. It's pretty you know, across

0:32:57.080 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 4>the aisle, this sort of haarkish tone on China, and

0:33:00.480 --> 0:33:03.640
<v Speaker 4>from the perspective of the Western investor coming into the

0:33:03.680 --> 0:33:06.160
<v Speaker 4>Chinese market, I wonder how that factors in.

0:33:06.440 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, it's super interesting because you know, especially always in

0:33:09.080 --> 0:33:11.120
<v Speaker 9>these weeks in the run up to election, you start

0:33:11.160 --> 0:33:14.320
<v Speaker 9>to see these kind of dichotomized views basically. And what's

0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 9>been really interesting about China. You would think, you know,

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:19.560
<v Speaker 9>if we were speaking six months ago, that you know,

0:33:20.000 --> 0:33:23.040
<v Speaker 9>being long China might be a more pro Harris kind

0:33:23.040 --> 0:33:27.080
<v Speaker 9>of stance, and then you know, being short China would

0:33:27.080 --> 0:33:30.480
<v Speaker 9>be more a pro Trump stance. But in reality, actually

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:32.400
<v Speaker 9>we've not seen too much wavering in terms of those

0:33:32.400 --> 0:33:35.680
<v Speaker 9>flows that we've been seeing, which which is surprising. Touchwood

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:37.680
<v Speaker 9>that continues over the next few days. But I think

0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:39.520
<v Speaker 9>that even you know, Trump came out with this comment

0:33:39.600 --> 0:33:43.120
<v Speaker 9>about you know that she respects him because he knows

0:33:43.120 --> 0:33:45.080
<v Speaker 9>he's crazy kind of right, So either way, it was

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:48.040
<v Speaker 9>like a positive tone really on China, his words, not yours.

0:33:48.080 --> 0:33:53.040
<v Speaker 2>Yes, Yeah, So I was thinking about this recently because

0:33:53.640 --> 0:33:58.440
<v Speaker 2>Elon Musk has turned into this figure in the Republican Party,

0:33:58.640 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 2>especially over the last few weeks. Yeah, giving so much

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:06.040
<v Speaker 2>money to the Superpack doing the sweepstakes in Pennsylvania, and

0:34:06.120 --> 0:34:10.040
<v Speaker 2>he has a unique relationship with China because of Tesla's

0:34:10.080 --> 0:34:14.239
<v Speaker 2>operations in China. Yeah, and I find that sort of

0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:16.680
<v Speaker 2>adding to the story of him and Trump being kind

0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:21.600
<v Speaker 2>of strange bedfellows because Elon has to stay on China's

0:34:21.640 --> 0:34:24.200
<v Speaker 2>good side, and I'm wondering if having him as a

0:34:24.280 --> 0:34:29.560
<v Speaker 2>voice close to the former president and perhaps future president

0:34:30.320 --> 0:34:32.400
<v Speaker 2>might be a bullish sign for China.

0:34:32.760 --> 0:34:36.560
<v Speaker 9>I think that what Mask kind of understands is that,

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.400
<v Speaker 9>you know, in the past year, basically we've seen like

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:42.480
<v Speaker 9>sanctions not just from the US but also from Europe

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.560
<v Speaker 9>as well in terms of Chinese goods, and so most

0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:50.400
<v Speaker 9>likely understands that if China's antagonized, there could be like

0:34:50.480 --> 0:34:54.160
<v Speaker 9>further sanctions on like selling US evs into China, which

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:56.800
<v Speaker 9>is still a big market. Right. We talk about declining population,

0:34:57.200 --> 0:34:59.560
<v Speaker 9>but it's still over a billion, right, still three times

0:34:59.600 --> 0:35:02.200
<v Speaker 9>bigger than in the US. That's still a lot of

0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:05.919
<v Speaker 9>consumers that you know are a target market. I think

0:35:06.000 --> 0:35:09.359
<v Speaker 9>then perhaps supplicate this a little bit. We do have

0:35:09.520 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 9>like some conversations with clients about thinking about DMX China.

0:35:14.239 --> 0:35:16.880
<v Speaker 9>We've been speaking a lot about EMX China, and so

0:35:17.480 --> 0:35:19.919
<v Speaker 9>we are very aware of the fact that a lot

0:35:19.960 --> 0:35:23.200
<v Speaker 9>of US equity names, a lot of DEVELOPM market global

0:35:23.520 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 9>equity names have this intrinsic link to revenues from China too,

0:35:28.480 --> 0:35:31.160
<v Speaker 9>you know, supply chains from China which Musk is reliant on.

0:35:31.560 --> 0:35:33.680
<v Speaker 9>And so if you do have this very strong view

0:35:33.719 --> 0:35:36.320
<v Speaker 9>tim of like, you know what, if the pipe gets

0:35:36.480 --> 0:35:40.400
<v Speaker 9>cut right, then CRTC is probably our best solution for that.

0:35:41.120 --> 0:35:43.000
<v Speaker 4>When it comes to investing in China though, you know,

0:35:43.000 --> 0:35:46.160
<v Speaker 4>I think about twenty twenty two and the narrative there

0:35:46.280 --> 0:35:48.480
<v Speaker 4>was that you were going to have this fantastic reopening

0:35:48.520 --> 0:35:51.160
<v Speaker 4>in China. It's going to lift their markets, their risk assets.

0:35:51.440 --> 0:35:53.200
<v Speaker 4>It did not turn out that way. You take a

0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.960
<v Speaker 4>look at what the CSI three hundred did in twenty

0:35:56.000 --> 0:35:59.600
<v Speaker 4>twenty two, down nearly twenty eight percent, down down another

0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:03.799
<v Speaker 4>fourteen teen percent in twenty twenty three, and I just

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:07.640
<v Speaker 4>when it comes to investors, do they feel burned by

0:36:07.640 --> 0:36:10.319
<v Speaker 4>that experience? Do they feel shy about that experience because

0:36:10.360 --> 0:36:13.600
<v Speaker 4>you just saw a massive inflows into Chinese ETFs that year,

0:36:13.640 --> 0:36:15.960
<v Speaker 4>and then it took a long time to see the

0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:18.680
<v Speaker 4>flows start coming in in this current episode of optimism.

0:36:18.840 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, that's absolutely a fair comment. We did see short

0:36:21.640 --> 0:36:25.160
<v Speaker 9>positions earlier on in the year, but what's been fantastic

0:36:25.200 --> 0:36:27.560
<v Speaker 9>to see is that actually the CSI three hundred year

0:36:27.600 --> 0:36:31.480
<v Speaker 9>to date is up fifteen percent, and actually from the

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:35.440
<v Speaker 9>lows of February it's up thirty percent. So we do

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:38.200
<v Speaker 9>see that the market is having conviction in the Chinese

0:36:38.239 --> 0:36:40.800
<v Speaker 9>economy again, at least bringing it back to a neutral

0:36:40.840 --> 0:36:42.600
<v Speaker 9>position rather than an overweight position.

0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:45.879
<v Speaker 4>And just quickly here, we don't have much time left,

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:47.200
<v Speaker 4>but I do want to broaden out. I do want

0:36:47.239 --> 0:36:48.839
<v Speaker 4>to talk a little bit about the bond market because

0:36:48.840 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 4>I'm taking a look at your notes. You make the

0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:54.960
<v Speaker 4>case for high yield bond. What is the case for

0:36:55.040 --> 0:36:55.960
<v Speaker 4>high yield bonds?

0:36:56.080 --> 0:36:59.279
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so we know that the FOMC is meeting next week,

0:36:59.320 --> 0:37:01.520
<v Speaker 9>we will have an invasion of what's going to happen

0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:05.239
<v Speaker 9>in the direction of travel five percent, That kind of

0:37:05.239 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 9>five handle became like, you know, the norm for us

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:10.120
<v Speaker 9>for a little while, right in terms of yield in

0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:14.160
<v Speaker 9>portfolios just from having a cash allocation, and so clearly

0:37:14.200 --> 0:37:17.200
<v Speaker 9>that's not you know, reliable anymore. And so what we

0:37:17.320 --> 0:37:20.440
<v Speaker 9>see with investors on the insurance side, on the pension

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:23.400
<v Speaker 9>fund side in particular where there's liability management to consider,

0:37:23.640 --> 0:37:27.840
<v Speaker 9>but also within retail searching for income is moving down

0:37:28.320 --> 0:37:31.239
<v Speaker 9>the credit spectrum and we do actually think that high

0:37:31.320 --> 0:37:34.600
<v Speaker 9>quality high yield makes sense just in light of the

0:37:34.600 --> 0:37:37.480
<v Speaker 9>fact that you've basically seen a harving of default rates

0:37:37.719 --> 0:37:39.200
<v Speaker 9>over the last eighteen months.

0:37:39.400 --> 0:37:43.160
<v Speaker 5>High quality, high yield, It's no naximorantem.

0:37:42.360 --> 0:37:45.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I'll take it. There you go, Amanda Rabello, thanks

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:46.920
<v Speaker 2>for stopping by, Thank you for having me. Good to

0:37:46.920 --> 0:37:49.440
<v Speaker 2>see you. Amanda's head of X Trackers Sales US on

0:37:49.480 --> 0:37:52.319
<v Speaker 2>shore over at DWS Groups. She joins us here in

0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:54.640
<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio.

0:37:55.200 --> 0:38:00.120
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