00:00:00 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Bloomberg Money. 00:00:12 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast. I'm Tom Keen with Scarlett Foo. Join us each week for a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life. On personal finance, on retirement and wealth management. We will explore how people are earning, investing, and building wealth. We are live Fridays at noon Eastern on Bloomberg Television. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen, and is always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We've got a Bloomberg panel, so worthies here to get us start to day. 00:00:46 Speaker 3: David Gura is with us. 00:00:48 Speaker 2: Lots to talk about with him really closer to the election in November, Man Deep saying hasn't slept in the three days. 00:00:55 Speaker 3: He joins us with Bloomberg and tells you two were just together, Yes we were Technology show. 00:01:00 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, thank you, thank you. 00:01:03 Speaker 3: And with us today is Katherine Greyfield. 00:01:05 Speaker 2: Katie Greyfield, expert on ETFs and I got out the surveillance rolodex and the Bloomberg money both on Rolodex, and I said, who knows about Trump accounts? And we had exactly one person within the system. 00:01:18 Speaker 4: Ready to look it. 00:01:20 Speaker 3: Are you going to have a Trump account with a newly issued child? 00:01:23 Speaker 1: I mean it's for children kids born between twenty twenty five and twenty twenty eight, So I'm in the sweet spot here. 00:01:28 Speaker 4: She gets a thousand bucks. Yeah, it's like an extra thousand I would never say. 00:01:31 Speaker 3: No, but critically here grandparents could put money in. 00:01:36 Speaker 1: Yes, but only up to five grand a year a year, yes, but. 00:01:40 Speaker 2: They can do that till the kids eighteen or twenty or that. This is a building account. It goes into ETFs. How big a deal is this. 00:01:47 Speaker 3: For Eric belchuness world. 00:01:49 Speaker 1: I mean he's just been on fire this week, as Scarlett who knows well since we co. 00:01:53 Speaker 5: Anchor ETFIQ with him. 00:01:54 Speaker 1: I mean, it is really interesting that the five initial accounts that were selected were ETFs. There's one default account to start. 00:02:02 Speaker 5: That's the ticker is spy M. It's a State Street S and P five hundred ETF. 00:02:06 Speaker 1: The fee, the annual fee on that account is just two basis points. That's point two percent, and that's pretty much I think why it was chosen. 00:02:16 Speaker 5: It's super cheap, so baby Greyfeld is going to win. 00:02:18 Speaker 2: There you go the ETF market is extraordinary. I mean, it just builds out and builds out. What I think is cool is if the Trump account extends out into the like the Gura offspring, so it goes from one to two years, you know, they build it out of that. 00:02:35 Speaker 6: Well, the industry loves what's happening, and we really see that with State Street and all the other etf issuers as well. Of course, when we talk about ETFs, I want to bring in man deep here, especially with the start of sk Heinex trading, there are a lot of ETFs that are really tied to sk Heinex's performance and memory chip makers as a whole, and this just kind of supercharges that obsession. 00:02:56 Speaker 4: It does. 00:02:56 Speaker 7: And look, we heard quite a few new terms today from the chairman's and of view memory as a service. 00:03:03 Speaker 3: That really caught my attention. 00:03:05 Speaker 7: You know, we talk about memory in the context of a commodity, and you know, with booms and bus he sounded a lot more confident in terms of one he has visibility to this cycle in terms of extending through the end of the decade, and also new things like memory as a service where they're thinking about new business models in terms of kind of just being the memory provider and kind of doing sometime. 00:03:30 Speaker 3: We're just going out to a new high keep talking, man. 00:03:33 Speaker 6: Yes, wait, South Korea is kind of the at the center of the AI trade right now, right, I mean they are really where the market is booming. The South Queen stock market that costs ME is the world's best performing index. There's a lot of retail participation in that market, and that's kind of spilling over to the rest of the world. 00:03:50 Speaker 3: It is. 00:03:51 Speaker 7: And look, when it comes to HPM, you have to look at the exposure. So Skehinex has told us they have fifty seven percent market share, So if that is the hot part of the AI market, then they have a much bigger market share than a Micron, which is being on a tier of you. 00:04:09 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is way too technically. He lost me with the HGM. 00:04:12 Speaker 5: Yeah, all that the two of you. 00:04:13 Speaker 3: I want to talk about this. 00:04:14 Speaker 2: The political shtick of this is we're going to employ America. Do you believe that the Asian manufacturers could come over here and get the quality of employment that they have in Asia? 00:04:25 Speaker 7: I think again, based on the chairman's comments, it sounded like it's going to take a couple of years just to set the initial thirty five billion dollar investment kind of show some reason. 00:04:36 Speaker 3: Answer my question. 00:04:37 Speaker 2: Do we have the bodies, the intellect, the drive to be as quality of employees as we see in Asia. 00:04:43 Speaker 8: No. 00:04:43 Speaker 7: I think we may be better off on the infrastructure side, but in terms of their talent side, there is more work. 00:04:49 Speaker 9: There's a political football, yeah, But I was struck by how agnostic the chairman seemed in talking about this. He said, what's the best talent anywhere? And he's focused here on the US. He seemed gleeful to say there'd been this thirty five billion doll dollar investment, and so there's the prospect for much more investment in the US going forward. Here, we kind of look at that in Jex's position with what we heard from Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary yesterday saying he's kind of tightening the screws on the SSK, Heinez and Samsung as well to do more in the United States. And to me, yes, there's the kind of talent and resources side of this. 00:05:18 Speaker 4: Tom. The other facet here is will that be effective? 00:05:21 Speaker 9: Is he going to be able to is the administration going to be able to get these companies to do more in the US by sheer Will. 00:05:27 Speaker 6: I think that's a really good point, especially because Mandeep this listing is to fund the build out of factories in South Korea. Isn't that going to be a problem David Gerrow for this administration that they're raising money in the US to build more factories in Korea. 00:05:40 Speaker 4: Yes, and they have this, correct me if I'm wrong. 00:05:42 Speaker 9: I think like an eight hundred million dollar commitment to eight hundred million one commitment to do more work in South Korea. I think he was saying this would be kind of complementary to this that he has focused on the US as well. But yeah, that is part and parcel of this. How much of this is going to be raised in the US and stay in the US versus go back? 00:05:56 Speaker 7: When it comes to the factories, you also have to think about what is leading note versus what is you know, technology that is more mature. I doubt they are going to set up their leading note factories, you know, being the first one here in the US to do that. It will be more advanced note like the mature notes. 00:06:13 Speaker 2: What are you looking at Bloomberg this weekend? What are you looking at in Washington? Where sides everyone worried about the Senator. 00:06:21 Speaker 9: Yes, yes, Mitch mcconne's still ailing. We're looking at obviously the conflict in the Middle East. We had the presence today the ceasefire is off formerly but the talks continue. 00:06:30 Speaker 4: What can be accomplished here. 00:06:31 Speaker 9: We have Michael McCall, the Chairman emeritus the House for an Affairs Committee joining us, and the Chief of Naval Operations as well, so get a sentence of how things. 00:06:38 Speaker 3: Are in the control room. 00:06:39 Speaker 2: They have Greyfeld's people saying we haven't spent enough time with Katie, you know save me. 00:06:43 Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, and Katie, I know that you are on top of all the ETFs. There's going to be leverage ets tied to sk Heinex. That is going to be a big deal next week. 00:06:52 Speaker 5: Oh big time. 00:06:52 Speaker 1: I mean you think about all the different issuers trying to get out their products out there, not that sk Heinex the way it trades needs leverage on top of it. But certainly that is the gold rush going on in the ETF industry. 00:07:04 Speaker 5: I will point. 00:07:05 Speaker 1: Out, you know, you think about us appetite for exposure to sk Heinex. We have, you know, one facet to look at that. It's an ETF called d RAM, which we talk about a lot. It launched three months ago. It's already more than twenty billion dollars in assets and shine with Eric Alchunis of course before the show. 00:07:22 Speaker 5: Right it trades about as much as Apple. 00:07:24 Speaker 1: So this is an extremely popular trade right now, and you're seeing that in the retail recailvessors. 00:07:29 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have time to talk to you. I have time to talk to you. I have SpaceX below one forty nine. Is it going to one thirty five? I mean, is it like where we're one ten and we're enjoying sixty and so we're gonna have SpaceX fai. I'm not comparing it to skhinex, but this isn't good right Well. 00:07:48 Speaker 1: I would say that SpaceX I've been thinking about it as a really interesting Petri dish because you have all the index inclusions. 00:07:54 Speaker 5: This is the most the. 00:07:55 Speaker 1: General public has ever cared about index methodology. But you also have the lockup Expert is starting off this month, so it's going to be you know, some really interesting forces all coming together on spacets. I'm not sure if you can say right now it's trading on fundamentals. 00:08:10 Speaker 9: Yes, the Tom King triple leveraged all cash fund made a transition to tea. 00:08:14 Speaker 2: But we did a fifteen percent gross after three percent pre three hundred basis points. 00:08:18 Speaker 3: We came into the twelve percent in that clean. 00:08:21 Speaker 4: Lass quarter put in the Trump accadey it was great. 00:08:22 Speaker 3: Maybe actually we could do that. 00:08:26 Speaker 2: So the three of you, thank you, but particularly to math Saying and honorag Rana and all of our tech people. 00:08:32 Speaker 3: Your leadership on this has just been absolutely. 00:08:34 Speaker 2: A superb Randy Krasner is a math prodigy out of Brown University. He owns a high ground in financial economics in America so good. At a very young age, he became a governor of the Fund Reserve System foundational to the University of Chicago Boost School and particularly their expansion over to your Europe orre thrilled he could join us today. 00:08:58 Speaker 3: Randy, thank you. 00:08:59 Speaker 2: So much for being with us. I'm not going to mince it. It's about inflation. Bring up the chart right now, Randy. I'm glad you're remote because you'd be in. 00:09:07 Speaker 3: Tears if you saw this chart. It's the inflation we're living and the idea here, Thank you. 00:09:12 Speaker 2: John Taylor Stanford is we need two percent inflation. Okay, Well, there's two percent inflation. It's the green line, and the answer is the presidential moving average, four quarter moving average is elevated COVID and all the rest. 00:09:28 Speaker 3: Randy, do you, on a first order basis. 00:09:31 Speaker 2: Have a real conviction we can get back anywhere near two percent inflation? 00:09:38 Speaker 1: Oh? 00:09:38 Speaker 8: I think we can. It's not going to happen in the next quarter. It's not going to happen by the end of the year. But I do think that within let's see a year to eighteen months, we can be pretty close. 00:09:50 Speaker 6: Okay, So when we talk about two percent inflation, the FED focus is on core PC, which backs out food and gas, not the headline inflation number. The new fetcher, Kevin Walsh, prefers Dallas Fed trimmed mean, which moves that takes out the outliers, so kind of like a judge and figure skating you throughout the top score and the bottom score. So my question is, Randy, for consumers, this can feel like a very narrow way of measuring inflation. You remove food, you remove gas, you remove the outliers at both ends. It leaves you something in the middle that doesn't reflect anyone's lived experience. And then making policy based on it. Is this something that can or should be fixed. 00:10:27 Speaker 8: So I always joked that it's only an economists who could think about the consumer basket as excluding anything about eating so you starve stiff, and anything about driving or keeping your house warm or cool. So the reason for doing that is not because of concerned about people, but it's really looking for what is going to be the best metric for seeing where inflation is going, rather than looking at inflation in the rear view mirror, because we're of course always getting data from the past, not from you know, we want to figure out what. 00:11:00 Speaker 10: Start in the future. 00:11:01 Speaker 8: So the idea behind it is the starting in the nineteen seventies was taking up high volatility sectors things like food and energy, because that's a lot of noise. It's not necessarily telling you where things are are going. Trim mean in some sense, it's a version of that, because if you think about what taking out food and energy is, you're just saying, well, we always want to trim out the volatile food and energy sectors because we think of those as outliers. The Dallas FED approach is saying, well, we don't know from month to month what the extreme is going to be, So let's trim those out because if something is moving a lot one month might be coming back the next month. 00:11:40 Speaker 2: Randy, I want to cut to the chase round university tuition since COVID has gone from seventy four thousand their top and ticking it this year at ninety seven thousand. That's what our viewers and personal finance retirement, that's what they feel. And the worry here is a sustained inflation where we don't get legitimate real wage growth. Is that a risk for our savers, our personal finance in America, that we don't get legitimate wage growth. 00:12:12 Speaker 8: That's a real risk, And that's really the key thing, and you really put your finger on it, because the key is how much are people making relative to how much things would cost. So if your wages are going up at ten percent and inflation is five percent, you're feeling pretty good because even though prices are higher, you still have really strong purchasing power. But if it's the opposite, the price has gone up ten percent and your wage's only gone five percent, you're pretty upset because you can barely put food on the table. So that's really the relevant thing. And That's what Kevin is focusing on, because he's saying, well, I'm very optimistic about what AI is going to do increasing productivity and increasing real wages. 00:12:51 Speaker 10: Of course that's a bet, but you know, that's what he's focusing on. 00:12:54 Speaker 3: No, we don't have time for this on Bloomberg Money. 00:12:56 Speaker 2: But I'm just going to say I was blown away by everything about the worst task forces except Krasner's on there. 00:13:02 Speaker 3: Why is Randy Krasner not on the task force? 00:13:06 Speaker 2: You know this, Let's go to right now, Adam Posen and Peter Orzagan maybe my essay of the year, the risk of higher US inflation or Zagon Posen push against hot Siistict Golden Sachs a tighter labor market reflecting the effects of the shifted immigration, monetary policy, looser than commonly appreciated, and inflationary expectations inflation, they would suggest Scarlett is drifting higher. 00:13:33 Speaker 5: Right. 00:13:33 Speaker 6: I mean, what it comes down to, Randy, is that a meaningful segment of the population, the hollowed out middle class young people in particular, they've lost faith in the ability of the FED to do anything on reducing inflation. They've gravitated to things like crypto or prediction markets as a solution. From their point of view, the system is broken and they might as well bet on low probability, high impact outcomes. How problematic is this behavior for the stability of the economy, disability of financial system? 00:14:01 Speaker 8: And you also see with memestocks too, it's another example of people taking the high risk bets and maybe it'll pay off, but it's awfully risky. So I think there is a breakdown of trust, and I think that is a real problem. We saw that because inflation went up so high when the FED was saying transitory transtory transittory as. 00:14:18 Speaker 10: Ination kept spiraling higher and higher. And Kevin Marsh has made it really. 00:14:22 Speaker 8: Clear when asked about these sorts of things that I'm not getting into that game of saying what's transitory or not. What I'm going to do is try to get big picture trends in the economy where broadly is inflation going, what are the key drivers behind inflation, and what is the role of productivity growth. So that's what he's going to try to do to get restore faith in the FED rather than those short term predictions that although the FED is probably the. 00:14:47 Speaker 10: Best predictor of anybody, They're still not very good. 00:14:50 Speaker 2: Grandy your advice here, I think of Booth School in Chicago, Steve Lovett, freakonomics, everything that Becker did, I mean the heritage he of our system economics. Do you have a confidence that we will solve our retirement system the next go around of social security reform and indeed retirement reform? 00:15:14 Speaker 10: I think it'll never be fully solved. 00:15:16 Speaker 8: You know, we had we've had patchworks that come every decade or so when we see that the Soial Security Trust Fund is going to run out of resources, and the most recent reports is it's common pretty soon twenty thirty, twenty thirty two. And so it's really it's it's not purely economics, it's really political economy. 00:15:37 Speaker 10: What will the politicians be willing to do? 00:15:40 Speaker 8: So one of the obvious fixes is to increase retirement age. When this was first implemented by Roosevelt, people's expected lifetime. 00:15:49 Speaker 10: Was much much shorter than it is today. 00:15:51 Speaker 8: Yes, and we've moved things up a little bit, but not nearly as much to reflect much better health outcomes that people have totally and so their whole right of things, it could be done to address that. 00:16:02 Speaker 3: Randy I gotta go. We got to get you in New York. 00:16:04 Speaker 2: Next time for Bloomberg Money, Governor Krasner, Professor Krausner. Of course, always forever with the University of Chicago. 00:16:11 Speaker 3: We're going to. 00:16:12 Speaker 2: Migrate here to the equity Marcus's continued bull market coming up, Cameron Dawson, a new edge ausre What am I going to focus on? Scarlett's got a list of questions. I'm going to focus on my need to rebalance. I'm unbalanced. I'm not to rebalance this, Cameron. Next, it's Bloomberg Money. 00:16:29 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 00:16:37 Speaker 2: On a Friday, Bloomberg Good Money. Tom Keene with Scarlett fu Scarlett Well. 00:16:42 Speaker 6: Sk Heinex the Queen Memory ship maker searching above its offer priced. 00:16:45 Speaker 5: It's the US debut. 00:16:46 Speaker 6: So let's go out to b Tech anchor live at the NASAC and ed you got to speak with the chairman of s k Heinicks. What did you learn from him that's relevant to retail investors looking to thank big on ske Heynicks. 00:16:58 Speaker 11: Three things, big, big investments in the USA are coming. They're committed to thirty five billion, and that number is going to get much, much, much much bigger. This was an ADR listing. That wasn't just about the proceeds. He's coming for the talent chairman Cha. He wants to see American engineers powering their position in the merry market, which is number three. They got fifty seven percent, seven percent market share in high bandwidth memory. That is the chip. The thing that everyone cares about in this AI story right now. The main thing is that the US retail investor is sophisticated and educated about what goes into a server design in the data center. They know how critical that HBM is and that's why sk came knocking at the NASDAK. 00:17:39 Speaker 6: Fantastic, thank you go for that round of s Khinex of course trading in his market debut here in the US at Ludlow b Tech anchor joining us from the NASAC. It is time for banking on books and my book is Strangers, a Memoir of marriage by Belle Burden, first publisher Generary now and it's twelfth printing. 00:17:57 Speaker 5: This is a financial course rate. 00:17:59 Speaker 6: Yes, because Bell Burdon's husband walked out on her and the kids at the start of COVID. She had quit her job to raise the kids, her husband worked and manage of family finances. That was not a good setup for that situation. And there's also this fascinating overlap with privilege and status because she's in New York society. There's trust funds involved. Buthering glare's from Mary Tumban. 00:18:19 Speaker 2: Did Wich stillman define the Upper east Side Lottie world and then she just absolutely nailed it. 00:18:27 Speaker 10: Well. 00:18:27 Speaker 6: This was a fantastic read, and it's so interesting because it's sparked a lot of conversation among people, certainly in New York, you know, because she's a New York society woman. And that gets to what we've done here at Bloomberg Money. The Bloomberg Money team wrote about this book and how it's sparking all these discussions everywhere about marital finance. Nikki Waller leads that coverage for us here at Bloomberg and she joins us now and Nikki, this is something where women are in book clubs, are talking about it, and they are taking more control of their finances and taking a deep dive into financial planning to understand their household finances. 00:19:00 Speaker 12: It's just as you said, people are reading this book as a cautionary tale and a horror story, and they are phoning their financial advisors and saying I need to crack open the books on my finances with my husband or partner. 00:19:13 Speaker 6: And this is the case where women often out earn their husbands or they're at parody, except when they take time off to have kids, and they kind of lose some ground here. So there's this extra urgency and this once there was a stigma about talking about all of this before getting married, but it's not becoming the case anymore. 00:19:30 Speaker 5: It's more practical now, it is. 00:19:32 Speaker 12: Less of a stigma. But even so, the numbers show that a lot of women, close to half are entrusting their husbands with all of the financial decision making. 00:19:41 Speaker 2: Boy read we all have our horror stories and our families of this. I have multiple horror stories of I'm the man, I'm smarter than you are, leaving alone. Just trust me. I'll give you the passwords when I die. That's the status quo. 00:19:55 Speaker 3: Still. 00:19:56 Speaker 12: Yeah, and we have really smart people. I mean, take Bell Burden. She has an ivy lea educated corporate lawyer, and she still hated this over And I think a lot of this talks about comes back to the gendered ways we think about money. That this is men's work, and this is women's work, and it's kind of cool to hear from these women who are cracking the books, and even their husbands are saying, well, finally, there is. 00:20:17 Speaker 6: A broader trend and this is something you guys wrote about too, of young couples signing pre nups, This idea that it's not just men or wealthy the wealthy partner in the group. Everyone is kind of inquiring about this and looking into this to protect whatever assets or liabilities that they come into the marriage with. 00:20:34 Speaker 12: And there are so many reasons for this. People are marrying later in life. They we talk about this all the time. They have more investments, more stockholdings, so it's not like getting married at age twenty or twenty one, and both both partners have very little. People are coming into marriage with their own kind of book of business. 00:20:52 Speaker 5: Frozen eggs also. 00:20:53 Speaker 6: One of the assets that people you know have to kind of delineate student debt. 00:20:57 Speaker 5: In terms of liabilities, these are all things to consider. Pets, social media followers. 00:21:02 Speaker 6: Pets and social media followers is part of your prenup. I bet that came up in the tailor swift Travis Kelsey prenuptial agreement. 00:21:09 Speaker 3: Did you like the wedding? I mean, did you get the pictures? 00:21:12 Speaker 5: I've only seen other people. I thought you went out. There was a limited invite list. 00:21:17 Speaker 3: There's a limited list. We'll have to see. 00:21:19 Speaker 2: We were advantaged because cam Dawson was with us day of the wedding, and she knows every Taylor swift lyric there is to know it, does she, which is almost as good as their equity knowledge here Bloomberg Money, we'd like to talk to people with deep knowledge, what is known as domain knowledge. Cameron Dawson owns absolute high ground on the equity markets. 00:21:38 Speaker 3: At the New Edge. 00:21:40 Speaker 2: Well, I'm thrilled to have a year for a two hour conversation. We're going to squeeze in and next to nothing. Ow bull market? Is this bull market? 00:21:48 Speaker 3: Oh? 00:21:48 Speaker 13: It is certainly a bull market, not just within prices, but certainly within the earnings. And that's why this market has been so powerful and resilient to everything you've thrown at it this year is because, unlike prior times when you've had things like energy shocks and geopolitical crises and you would see earning sestiments get cut, you've seen earning sestments go up twenty percent on a twelve month four basis this year, which is why this market has been able to shake off any kind of negative news. 00:22:16 Speaker 3: On a personal finance basis. 00:22:18 Speaker 2: Are we enjoying it or are we totally on a whack where our allocation should be. 00:22:23 Speaker 13: Well, if you look at the aggregate allocation metrics out of something like in American Association of Individual Investors, what you can see is equity allocations are at all time highs at seventy one percent allocations. So this gets you back to prior highs that we saw in times like twenty twenty one or twenty eighteen. So certainly this looks like an individual or a household area that is all in on equities. You see a very different story when you look at institutions, where institutions are the ones who've been sitting on the sideline. Something like Deutsche Bank's consolidated equity positioning is just in the forty first percentiles. So it's a tale of very different cities. Households are all in, institutions are on the sidelines. 00:23:03 Speaker 6: Interesting dichotomy there. You look at the SMP five hundred, we've had three straight years of double digit gains. The SMP is up about ten and a half percent. Now, when we're in this long running bull market like we have right now, do individual investors tend to turn more conservative, stay with what's worked, you know, buy and hold, or are they more willing to go out on a limb and consider, you know, moving some assets into uncorrelated securities or products, you know, maybe venture into private assets. 00:23:30 Speaker 13: Well, I think there's two different questions there, because the first one is do people start chasing the hot dot when it comes to market leadership. And one of the reasons why the quality anomaly exists, why if you look over the long run, the quality factor has actually added a lot to portfolios from a return basis and not added to risk, is because people do tend to chase the hot dots and markets like this. They want the non profitable tech company, they want this shiny new object. But what you find is that just as fast as those kind of assets go up, you have the same kind of problem where they can have very deep corrections. 00:24:05 Speaker 5: On the other. 00:24:06 Speaker 13: Side, when we think about allocating to private markets, that's where you're looking and saying, look, we've had fifteen years of effectively double the average returns for public markets. So we need to diversify the return streams, diversify the income streams, and you need to look to private markets in order to find those different sources of ways to get to overall portfolio diversification. 00:24:26 Speaker 2: Let's go, comingo Matthey on a Friday. Come, let's go Mathey. Here it is right now. This is one of the most famous money must reads out of the Wall Street Journal years and years ago, two thousand. 00:24:37 Speaker 5: And three, back in the archive. 00:24:38 Speaker 3: Mark Yeah. 00:24:40 Speaker 2: As an extreme example, consider the equity allocation of seventeen ninety three. Today you would be ninety nine percent equities and all stock portfolio over time, much riskier than a classic sixty forty cam Dawson explain the best approach on the X access to proper retirement allocation. 00:25:00 Speaker 13: Well, I think that there has to be a very holistic approach to the entirety of somebody's not. 00:25:05 Speaker 5: Formulate life, not formulaic. 00:25:07 Speaker 13: And I think that this is the big issue within wealth management, is that most people try to make everything. 00:25:12 Speaker 5: Institutional and homogeneous. They try to treat everybody the same. 00:25:16 Speaker 13: But just as we talked about with things like financial planning and well strategy and something like prenups, those considerations have to be reflected in the portfolio. Those liquidity needs have to be reflected in the portfolio. So having the right allocation is not just going on the efficient frontier. It's actually doing the holistic work to understand somebody's complete balance sheet in order to get the mix of assets that allows them to withstand volatility. 00:25:39 Speaker 2: Nicky, help me here with all your experience on this, from John Templeton to William Bernstein to all of rebalancing in the formulate approach. It's the cottage industry of reallocation along the way rebalancing. 00:25:53 Speaker 3: Isn't it. 00:25:54 Speaker 12: Yeah, No one makes money if you just leave everything alone said. 00:25:58 Speaker 5: That's very well said. 00:26:00 Speaker 6: The part out cuts to these the pipart out. 00:26:03 Speaker 3: That's an interest thing, right. 00:26:05 Speaker 12: I mean, one of the most interesting stories we're seeing this morning is that JP Morgan built an AI that can outdo the sixty forty portfolio. 00:26:14 Speaker 5: These are really good points. 00:26:15 Speaker 2: And I guess that way Gabby Santos was on the other day, is she out of a job? Is Gabby Santos out of a job with AI? 00:26:22 Speaker 12: I think Gabby Santos will always have a job. But the ways that people are using AI to trade and beat the formulas we've always had. 00:26:31 Speaker 5: This is something to watch. 00:26:33 Speaker 6: I want to go back to that point, Cam where you talked about tailored portfolios, tailored allocations, and tailored approaches to managing your portfolio. Does that mean things like model portfolios which are kind of cookie cutter don't make sense for wealth investors? 00:26:47 Speaker 13: I think that as somebody's wealth grows, and as they get even more complicated, typically we do see complications or I mean they certainly expand as the amount of assets do grow that we find that we have to tailor different portions of the portfolio to have the right kind of allocation. Because if you have high liquidity means having something that's invested in completely private markets means absolutely no sense. So instead of treating an allocation like going to a big golden corral and putting everything off the menu, you really have to choose the things that are having the right functions for what you need. 00:27:21 Speaker 2: How much of our certitude about this what Nikki Waller deals with every single day. 00:27:26 Speaker 3: The myth that we have. 00:27:28 Speaker 2: The foundations was built on the Great moderation where it was just price up, yield down forever, and then in twenty twenty two, we hit a wall. 00:27:37 Speaker 14: Well, and I think that all of these acid allocations, these mean variance optimizations are all built on one very problematic assumption, which is that you'll have standard normal outcomes that you will have you connect to outcomes. 00:27:51 Speaker 2: Could you see did you cheer up over that standard normal outcomes? 00:27:57 Speaker 3: We're going to go Gaussian in a moment, finish up and save the interview. 00:28:00 Speaker 6: So I guess what it comes down to is any portfolio, especially one tailored for an individual, needs to account for emergency liquidity. Yes, where does that come from? 00:28:08 Speaker 13: Well, I think that it's building out a certain degree of a cash side of portfolios to meet the liquidity needs over a shorter period of time, having an income generation part of the portfolio that has income sources from different sources. So this is not just fixed income bonds generating income. It's looking at something like potentially private credit if you can absorb the ill liquidity there in certain areas to do it carefully, GP stakes and so you have to think about diversification not just within the overall asset class, but what you're trying to achieve by each asset class. 00:28:40 Speaker 2: Was becoming a ballerina years ago. Seriously, you like really good at it? 00:28:44 Speaker 3: Is it expensive? 00:28:45 Speaker 14: Oh? 00:28:45 Speaker 5: Extraordinarily? 00:28:46 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was like stupid expensive. 00:28:48 Speaker 13: I mean my parents told me that they spent all my college money on doing that, so to figure out something else for college. 00:28:53 Speaker 2: That's what we're going to cover next. Thank you, Kim Dawson, Thank you so much for being with us fabuous. I'm going to feature my Twitter feed and LinkedIn and I'm going to be doing this afternoon is off of Ken Dawson's work. It's on rebalancing. Coming up, what are we gonna do on Blueberg running? We're going to talk about youth sports in the expense Soccer, BLA, hockey. 00:29:15 Speaker 5: Niki Waller, did you play sport in your youth poorly? I played softball? She plays off all your parents went money on it? I'm sure. 00:29:21 Speaker 2: Yeah, Lisa Mateo's the whole softball thing as. 00:29:24 Speaker 3: Well as hockey the worst, I think so. 00:29:26 Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, the travel part is a one. 00:29:27 Speaker 3: Youth sports stay with US. 00:29:34 Speaker 6: France winning last night in a World Cup match against Morocco, Spain and Belgium facing off tonight in the quarterfinals. 00:29:40 Speaker 5: Is this all you guys watch at home? Now? 00:29:41 Speaker 3: It's it's like ridiculous when it go away. 00:29:43 Speaker 2: It's changed our lives. It's really enjoyable. I love watching Telemundo to be honest. 00:29:49 Speaker 6: Oh, yes, because it's it's a whole different it's. 00:29:51 Speaker 3: A different culture and energy and that it's just fabulous. 00:29:54 Speaker 5: Were you following to USA is carefully? 00:29:56 Speaker 8: No? 00:29:56 Speaker 6: Well, yeah, I mean after last week, you know, it's a kind of a disappointment. 00:30:00 Speaker 3: Really upset about that many I was not alone on them. 00:30:03 Speaker 5: Yeah. 00:30:04 Speaker 6: Well, the US team's loss of Belgium in the World Cup has revived this growing concern among Americans, which is a rising cost of youth sports. According to one estimate from the Aspen Institute, Family spending on youth sports is up forty six percent over the last five years. Our senior reporter Randall Williams, he covers Business of Sports, has been following the story and he joins us Now and Randall. By some estimates, this is a forty billion dollar plus industry that is funded by private equity, and so no surprise that has become hyper competitive and hyper specialized. 00:30:33 Speaker 11: Yeah. 00:30:34 Speaker 15: I mean, when private equity gets into something, of course, they want to maximize profit, and that's not always a good thing for youth sports. People think of youth sports as the level before college sports, and college sports of course is welcoming private equity as well, but with NIL with a bunch of different mechanisms, it's sort of the amateur level, and I think youth sports isn't meant to be that, but it's becoming that because you can identify talent earlier on, which therefore could lead to brand collaborations and so many other things. Is a huge industry that we're saying private equity get into, get into, and other investors as well. 00:31:05 Speaker 6: How has technology accelerated this Because we talk about private equity getting in, we talked about NIL that those are two distinct things, but technology has made it even more hyper intense. 00:31:16 Speaker 15: Well, it's interesting like when I was growing up, like my dad and my mom would have a film camera that they would shoot it for, but that was just for fun, Like I had my aspirations of going to the NFL ended at fifteen. But now you have people using apps like game Changer, which you can literally just film the entire thing, create a highlight reel for your child, and then email it. 00:31:35 Speaker 4: To scouts themselves. 00:31:36 Speaker 15: And of course the supporters behind an app like game Changer are going to pour money into it, say hey, use our app and then you can go and market yourself. And a lot of times, this nil money that athletes are able to sign earlier and earlier can change a family's life, so the parents are pushing it and having to spend more as well. 00:31:52 Speaker 3: Exactly like you. 00:31:53 Speaker 2: I remember exactly where I was standing when I realized I would not play for the Montreal Canadians. Only the kids today, I'm sorry, name what's that name? Image likeness? You're playing D three if you're lucky. Are we within all the different sports informing the children of how special those people are playing Major D one and pro? 00:32:15 Speaker 3: I don't think so, not anymore. 00:32:16 Speaker 15: And the reason for that is because you know, do you have low level athletes who can make anywhere from fifty to sixty to twenty to thirty to sometimes hundreds of thousand dollars a semester, and so their families are like, listen, you don't have to go to the NFL, the NBA, the MLB, the MLS and so many other leagues anymore. You just have to go and play in college as long as you can, so that you can provide for our family for a four to five year periods and then they go into jobs like us. And so it is a very interesting time in college sports where you have people who want to play for five, six, sometimes seven years in college just so they can make money and name, image and likeness. 00:32:50 Speaker 3: Seven. 00:32:50 Speaker 6: I started off by talking about the World Cup. How has the professionalization of youth sports contributed perhaps to the US not being as well prepared for thing like the World Cup, because that's the criticism, right. 00:33:02 Speaker 15: I think that if you look at Europe, and Europe has these youth camps that you think of Lionel Messi, he was with Barcelona at a very young age and then raised in that system against a lot of top tier competition that doesn't really exist here. Of course we have youth soccer clubs and camps, but it's not to the same level. You've never seen a thirteen or thirteen year old signed to NYCFC. It just doesn't happen the same way. And so because of that, and because of the rise and costs. You think of the travel, you think of the cleats, you think of lodging and tournaments and all of these different fees. You have parents who are like, you know, I think I'm good. You can play a different sport, or you could just go and be an academic scholar. 00:33:40 Speaker 3: Can anybody beat France? 00:33:42 Speaker 15: I think they can. I think Spain can. I think England can. I think Argentina can. But it's going to take you on your best day and you're gonna have to shut down a bunch of different superstars. It's like playing against the Golden State Warriors with Steph Curry and Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. 00:33:55 Speaker 4: They are that level good. 00:33:57 Speaker 5: That was a good way to put it. Who are you rooting for? 00:34:00 Speaker 3: For a good story? 00:34:01 Speaker 15: So of course it's either I'd rather I would like to see a rematch of the twenty twenty two final, which was Argentina and France. That is probably the greatest sporting event that I've ever watched. 00:34:12 Speaker 5: So seeing that we're out of time, we're out of time. 00:34:14 Speaker 3: The control room never talks to me, They only talk to you. Luigi's vicious. 00:34:18 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I want to answer like six more questions. 00:34:21 Speaker 5: We'll get him back on next We'll get him out next week. I'm all right, thanks so much. 00:34:25 Speaker 6: Randon Williams or Bloomberg Business of Sports Senior reporter. 00:34:28 Speaker 3: Bloomberg money. Where we do Shakespeare, We'll do that right now. 00:34:36 Speaker 2: Shakespeare, where the sky meets to see It calls me and no one knows how far it goes. 00:34:42 Speaker 3: It's the wind in my sail on the sea stays behind me. 00:34:45 Speaker 10: This is one they all know. 00:34:46 Speaker 3: If I go, there's just no telling how far. 00:34:49 Speaker 5: This is not Shakespeare, who's bwana? 00:34:50 Speaker 3: Okay, there we. 00:34:51 Speaker 6: Go Shakespeare twenty twenty six. It is truly and it's Friday, so of course we're looking ahead to the weekend into next week. So for that we bring in Bloomberg's This Weekend's anchor, Lisa Mattale. Lisa, all right, Mawana. 00:35:06 Speaker 16: If you're going into the theaters this weekend, it's going to be Mawana. Tom knows of course why this is tough so on my list because Scarlett, I don't know if I have a huge crush on Dwayne the Rod Johnson. 00:35:15 Speaker 5: Oh, that's the reason for it. 00:35:17 Speaker 16: But this is the remake of the twenty sixteen animated film that's done phenomenal. So now they're doing the live action, so now you have the real actors, So you have Dwayne Johnson himself actually out there, so he's out. 00:35:29 Speaker 3: There shown, So it's out there. My Dane is now part of the show. 00:35:35 Speaker 5: It's part of this show. 00:35:37 Speaker 16: The reviews haven't been so great, but that's out there and that's at the box office this weekend for music fanatics. Okay, for those, the Rolling Stones are back there this week. 00:35:48 Speaker 5: They're making music. 00:35:50 Speaker 16: I'm telling you the twenty fifth studio album. 00:35:52 Speaker 5: Foreign Tongues, that's what it's called. 00:35:53 Speaker 16: So it's fourteen tracks, there's twelve original, two covers, and they're they're grouping up with different people. They're in different collaborations. 00:36:01 Speaker 5: One is with Paul McCartney. The last album. 00:36:03 Speaker 16: Released in twenty twenty three. So this is I know Tom's weekend is going to be spent. 00:36:07 Speaker 2: I will put headphones on and I will listen and it will be with immense respect for Charlie Watts. 00:36:13 Speaker 5: How much did album costs these days? 00:36:15 Speaker 10: Now? 00:36:16 Speaker 2: Like I don't know, I was just streaming on title is what I'm going to do. But the answer is how much did it cost to make this? It took them years to put this thing together. Yeah, this was not some rich guys six week project. This is They've really put a lot of effort. 00:36:29 Speaker 6: It had to mend a lot of what else you got say, they're still going, They're still going. 00:36:34 Speaker 16: So I want to go to ECO Data because we have a jam packed calendar coming up. So we start off on Tuesday we have CPI, oh yes, yes, and then on Wednesday we have BBI. So aside from that, then we go into Thursday. Retail sales is a big number, sure, and then Friday we have housing starts building permits. When I was looking at the prior and then what the expectations are, the biggest kind of difference I saw was actually in housing starts. You know, the prior was a dip of about fifty eighteen percent. The forecast is for a horizon about thirteen percent. So that was a difference there. And then I also want to point out this Bank of America survey that talked about how much consumers are spending for June, and they're spending more. 00:37:13 Speaker 5: This is looking at credit card data. This is also looking at prices are higher. 00:37:17 Speaker 16: Well, the reason why is because they're not. The prices aren't higher, but they're spending more because gas is cheaper, right, so they have a little bit more disctionary income. And the World Cup of course June, so they're starting to spend more. 00:37:30 Speaker 2: Yeah, are you doing like ten thousand steps a day now? After Nathan's famous last week you. 00:37:34 Speaker 5: Did see like did you of July? 00:37:37 Speaker 16: You were out in living in Cody Island from Bloomberg this weekend, Yes, I had a tru I did not have any of them because they were in the boiling sun for so long. 00:37:48 Speaker 5: I was like, maybe I shouldn't meet these But it was fun. It was a good experience. 00:37:52 Speaker 16: I'm a Brooklyn girl, so being back, you know, in Cony Island, you're good. 00:37:56 Speaker 5: Was it was just nice. 00:37:56 Speaker 4: It was a good experience. 00:37:58 Speaker 5: What do you have coming up this weekend? I'm we're talking a lot. 00:38:01 Speaker 16: Because all the talk has been about s k HEINEX, so we're tapping into that as at Ludlow is going through the weekend. He's joining us as well, so that'll be a good time. 00:38:11 Speaker 4: On top of that, he's just killed it. 00:38:13 Speaker 2: We make jokes about it, folks, but ed Ludlow's leadership here on all this technology. I'm looking literally right now at these SpaceX. 00:38:21 Speaker 3: Thirty year bond I get killed on it? Are you kidding me? 00:38:24 Speaker 2: It's gone priced down, yield up, and it hasn't found a bid yet it's ugly. That'll be a theme for Ed Ludlow on Bloomberg this weekend. Look for that with David and all this weekend. 00:38:36 Speaker 6: All right, Lisa Mitail, thank you so much, and of course be sure to watch Bloomberg this weekend. Every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seventy in Eastern Time. 00:38:44 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast, bringing you a smart look. 00:38:48 Speaker 3: Three two. 00:38:50 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast, bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom Keen with Scarlet Foo. I watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every Friday at. 00:39:03 Speaker 3: Noon Wall Street Time. 00:39:05 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.