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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. It's bowl season.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to stays the bold. My TV gets

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Speaker 2: to me the best college games you've ever seen. There's

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Speaker 2: things like bold that you'll like to see.

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Speaker 1: Tails sweeping quarterbacks, of throwing the head, coaches screening, Lady

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Speaker 1: wise Man two original Fans, Football Beast, It's.

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Speaker 2: The best week. Chap one Boy and the kick is

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Speaker 2: black the college Football World standard. Oh my goodness, he's.

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Speaker 1: Stumbled the football.

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Speaker 2: The lateral turn, the corner of the job. Don't you

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Speaker 2: be la table off the fail to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the sage of the dog in the fight, it's.

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Speaker 2: The sage of the fight in the What's up the

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Speaker 2: general Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the College Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part one.

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Speaker 2: I'm stuck in with me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Just to remind everyone once again, as I just said,

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Speaker 2: this is part one, we will have three more of

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Speaker 2: these before the National title Game. Part two will release

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Speaker 2: next Monday, December twentieth, will be covering games through Christmas.

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Speaker 2: Part three will release on the following Monday, December twenty seventh,

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Speaker 2: covering games through December thirtieth, and then Part four we'll

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Speaker 2: release on Thursday, December thirtieth, covering Year's Eve, New Year's Day, buls,

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Speaker 2: and the College Football Playoff. What we will get to

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Speaker 2: today are the nine bowl games of this weekend. Two

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Speaker 2: on Friday, six on Saturday, and one on Monday. It

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Speaker 2: is the most beautiful time of the area, ready to

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Speaker 2: rock and roll.

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Speaker 1: Con it's eating season, like we uh, We've got coaches

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Speaker 1: all over the place. We've got I don't know how

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Speaker 1: the NFL's got so much COVID out this weekend. We

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Speaker 1: haven't had any bull COVID hit as yet. I think

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Speaker 1: that's one thing I'm kind of been happy about, at

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Speaker 1: least so far as of this recording. But there's plenty

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Speaker 1: of movement. Lane Kiffin was right. We are in the

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Speaker 1: free agency era of college football. The whole landscape has changed.

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Speaker 2: Yep. It certainly as it's wild out there and that

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Speaker 2: that'll leave me in before we get to the games.

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Speaker 2: I have an article out there on bowl betting tips,

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Speaker 2: just to highlight them quickly because we're going to get

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Speaker 2: to a lot of this stuff, nose plaguing and coaching.

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Speaker 2: I have a file up there. I'm constantly refreshing. This

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Speaker 2: year is crazy with that transfer portal, the coaching carousel,

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Speaker 2: opt outs for the draft, injuries, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: You got to know who's in there. Motivation matters. That's

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Speaker 2: half the battle. And capping Bowl games. It's more art

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Speaker 2: than science. But a couple of tips service academies. We'll

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Speaker 2: talk about that a lot of covered seventy percent of

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Speaker 2: the time. They're always going to show seventy cent of

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Speaker 2: the time. Last forty years, teams with very poor records

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Speaker 2: the year before usually a good bet. Teams that won

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Speaker 2: zero to three games the previous year twenty seven to

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Speaker 2: nine against the spread. Over the past six years, teams

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Speaker 2: that just get to five hundred or are five hundred

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Speaker 2: generally seem to have a little bit more motivation to

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Speaker 2: have a winning season. They're about sixty five percent as

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Speaker 2: an underdog when they won their final game to get

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Speaker 2: to six wins against teams that obviously aren't haven't. Coaching

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Speaker 2: matters too. You see that teams that have a coaching

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Speaker 2: edge and experience have covered historically better than when they

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Speaker 2: have that coaching experience edge, And I think that speaks

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Speaker 2: to you know, learning, all right, how do I handle

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Speaker 2: the bowl preparation and avoiding the distractions and timing everything right.

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Speaker 2: Respect the market. You know, a lot of people out

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Speaker 2: there know more than you, I and everyone here. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of information that gets leaked out and it

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Speaker 2: doesn't come public. Look at the pit line, for example,

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Speaker 2: suggesting Kenny Pickett's gonna sit even though we haven't received

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Speaker 2: any information. Location know where the balls are played, right,

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Speaker 2: you can Is there a regional advantage for travel or fans?

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Speaker 2: Is there weather to look out for? It's the team

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Speaker 2: familiar with that venue, shop hero out and as always,

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Speaker 2: get the best number double digit dogs they have more

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Speaker 2: bite and bowl season on the money line in particular,

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Speaker 2: ball underdogs between ten and twenty points have won out

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Speaker 2: right about twenty six percent of the time over the

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Speaker 2: past fifteen years. In the regular season, that's about fifteen

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Speaker 2: percent of the time. That's mainly because you have double

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Speaker 2: dig your favorites that sometimes you just don't show up.

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Speaker 2: Remember the balls or exhibitions. So if plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half take the plus one and a half, don't

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Speaker 2: go money line. Minus one and a half might want

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Speaker 2: to take the money line because teams I just go

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Speaker 2: for two at the end instead of wanting a tie

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Speaker 2: and good overtime. I like the monitor early conference results.

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Speaker 2: So if a team, you know, the ACC for example,

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Speaker 2: is getting crushed, maybe I had that whole conference overrated, underrated,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. And you have to do some adjustments. And

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Speaker 2: then the final one is understand your risk a version level.

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Speaker 2: We're probably gonna have COVID coming. It's impacting every other sport.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't think why would it not impact college football.

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Speaker 2: If you want to bet some of these games early

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Speaker 2: in front of some of the moves, or if you

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Speaker 2: have a strong opinion, you might the market might move

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Speaker 2: against you, and you might you know, there might be

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Speaker 2: COVID the day of the bowl game, and then you

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Speaker 2: might get screwed. You might also benefit from it. If

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Speaker 2: you're okay with that risk, then go ahead and bet,

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Speaker 2: and if not, you might want to have to wait

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Speaker 2: till game day, but you're probably not going to get

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Speaker 2: out of the market if you do that. So those

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Speaker 2: are some of the tips that I have for betting goals.

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Speaker 2: I have a piece out there on Action network dot

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Speaker 2: com and the Action Network Gap. Anything you want to

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Speaker 2: add great building box.

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Speaker 1: I think a couple other things I would throw in

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Speaker 1: is does the team know the site? Do they have

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Speaker 1: a regional advantage? Toledo just played in the Bahamas Bowl

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Speaker 1: three years ago, So for the upperclassmen on this team

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Speaker 1: and for some of this coaching staff, they know how

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Speaker 1: to get into town, they know exactly where they're staying.

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Speaker 1: This is routine. I would call that a massive upgrade

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Speaker 1: for Toledo for knowing the park. Another thing I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: fall too much down the path of interim coaches not

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Speaker 1: being interested or interim coaches. I'm really thinking of LSU

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Speaker 1: like everybody is still playing for a job. These players

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Speaker 1: are playing for in a nil deals. These coaches are

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Speaker 1: playing for spots on the staff or maybe another staff somewhere.

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Speaker 1: So it's not like everybody is mailing it. There are

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Speaker 1: certain instances where you can question it, Like Joe Morihaed's

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Speaker 1: calling plays for Oregon, but he's already got a job

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Speaker 1: at Akron. There's a lot of that going around here.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about a couple games tonight where

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Speaker 1: everybody's already got a new job, but they're still calling

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Speaker 1: this game. And I think there's a lot of rumors

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Speaker 1: floating around about a lot of the bull games. You

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Speaker 1: and I are going to talk about there's players in

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Speaker 1: the portal that are playing in these bowl games, and

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Speaker 1: that just at first of all, I didn't even know

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Speaker 1: that was possible. I know you can lose your scholarship

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Speaker 1: if you enter the portal, but playing in a bowl

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Speaker 1: while in the portal is a brand new aspect. Something

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Speaker 1: to watch out for it.

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Speaker 2: But Stuck.

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Speaker 1: He's right. Also, with the conferences, each season, there's always

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Speaker 1: a conference that ends up getting beat by everybody else. Now,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people used to point every season and say,

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Speaker 1: the MAC is the team that always gets beaten. The Bulls.

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Speaker 1: They don't have it, they don't have the athletes, they

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Speaker 1: don't listen, odds makers adjust numbers. And in the lastlast

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Speaker 1: two seasons, the MAC has a winning record against the

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Speaker 1: spread over bowl games. So there's just a conference that

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Speaker 1: is not going to stack up against the others. And

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Speaker 1: once you see that out of two or three and

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Speaker 1: you see some familiar head to heads get together, Stock's right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's gonna be one we're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: pick on weekend and week out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the MAC narrative. I was on board of that

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Speaker 2: early mid thirteen twenty fourteen I mean they would never cover,

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Speaker 2: and they're thirty one forty three and four, just forty

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Speaker 2: two percent against the spread of bolsince two thousand and five,

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Speaker 2: filmily covered by an average about four points per game.

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Speaker 2: But since twenty fifteen they're seventeen fifteen and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread fifty three percent. And there's six two and

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Speaker 2: one against the spread over the past two seasons. So

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Speaker 2: don't get wrapped up in some of the older narratives.

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Speaker 2: All right, enough of the general stuff and let's dive

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Speaker 2: into these games. Can we get serious? Now? We have

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Speaker 2: nine to get to. Let's start on Friday with the

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Speaker 2: Bahamas Bowl in Nasal, noon Eastern on the ESPN. What

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Speaker 2: better way to get started than a new Eastern kick

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Speaker 2: between six and six Middle Tennessee and seven and five Toledo.

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Speaker 2: The Rockets are ten point favorites here over under fifty.

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Speaker 2: Some of these games I don't have really strong feelings

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Speaker 2: for that. We'll get to. This is one I do.

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Speaker 2: I also wrote this up. You can be able to

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Speaker 2: find it on actionwk dot com in the Action Network gap. Look.

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Speaker 2: Some of the trends suggests, you know, Middle Tennessee say

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Speaker 2: they got to six wins, they overperformed, they might be

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Speaker 2: a good underdog to back. Also, favorites, double digit favorites

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Speaker 2: perform worse the earlier the bowl is, and that I

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Speaker 2: think speaks to sometimes motivation. Right, some of these bigger

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Speaker 2: favorites there tend to be good teams that may be

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Speaker 2: underperform now they're in a bad bowl. But I don't

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Speaker 2: think that's the case here for Toledo. I think Toledo

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Speaker 2: does care. They haven't won a bowl since twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 2: they didn't go to a bowl last year. I think

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Speaker 2: that these seniors show that they care towards the end

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Speaker 2: of the year, especially in that Acro game, and they

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Speaker 2: started playing well, So I think that they will care here.

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Speaker 2: And Middle Tennessee obviously cares. So I don't think there's

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Speaker 2: any motivational edge either way. But when I look at

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Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee State, you hear they beat Modmouth, Yukon, Southern Miss,

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Speaker 2: Florida International, and Florida Atlantic. Right, those are an FCS

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Speaker 2: team and then.

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Speaker 1: Four two quarterbacks, like only two of those teams had quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Ten and thirty eight those FBS teams won. They're one

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Speaker 2: good winner for a bowl team is Marshall. But in

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Speaker 2: that game, Marshall turned it over six times and Middle

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Speaker 2: Tennessee only turned it over twice. Well, that's a trend

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Speaker 2: for Middle Tennessee. They are number one in the nation

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Speaker 2: in takeaways, number one in interceptions, and they recovered fifteen

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Speaker 2: of twenty opponent fumbles. They also had a FBS high

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Speaker 2: ten return touchdowns on the season. So this is a

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Speaker 2: defense that was fortunate all year long against pretty bad competition.

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Speaker 2: The defense is the strength of the team, particularly the secondary.

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Speaker 2: They have pretty good corners, the good safety and red

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Speaker 2: blanket ship safeties don't give up too many explosive places

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Speaker 2: they can be pushed around on the run game. The

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Speaker 2: offense is brutal, absolutely brutal. They cannot run the ball.

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Speaker 2: They're down to the third and fourth string quarterbacks. They

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Speaker 2: have their starter get hurt, their second string retired from football,

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Speaker 2: their third string got benched in the last game in

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Speaker 2: a comeback win against Florida Atlantic. So I don't know

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Speaker 2: who they're gonna go with here. But the offense is

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Speaker 2: not good. They have a pretty bounced receiving core, but

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Speaker 2: they're going against the Toledo defense that is excellent. I've

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Speaker 2: raped about it all year long, right in the top

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Speaker 2: twenty five and passing and rushed success. Right, there's really

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Speaker 2: no weaknesses on this Toledo defense. So when I look

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Speaker 2: at this game, I say, okay, number to the Bahamas.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be some wind. And by the way, Toledo

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Speaker 2: the fewest turnovers in the nation, so they don't turn

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Speaker 2: the ball over at all. They are a run first team.

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Speaker 2: With Kobac, they've been playing a lot better towards end

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Speaker 2: of the year after they made the switch to Finn,

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Speaker 2: their mobile freshman quarterback. They should have some success running

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Speaker 2: the ball here. I don't think that Middle Tennessee State

219
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Speaker 2: is going to be able to throw on this Toledo

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Speaker 2: secondary with this wind. It's like, all right, give me

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Speaker 2: the clearly superior rush offense in Toledo, the clearly superior

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Speaker 2: rush defense in Toledo, and I think this is just

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Speaker 2: too much of a step up in class for Middle Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I think Toledo cares. I'd make this line over two touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: I'd like the under down to fifty and I like

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Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee anything up to ten. Obviously, if you can

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Speaker 2: get below ten, that's preferable. What say you, Well, that's

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Speaker 2: what we have to do.

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Speaker 1: With these bowl games is we can't come out and

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Speaker 1: say and we can't. I think if you're gonna listen

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Speaker 1: to a podcast and you're gonna get content about how

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Speaker 1: to bet a bowl game, you need to set boundaries

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Speaker 1: because by the time you listen to this, maybe it's

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Speaker 1: three hours, maybe it's the night before the game, and

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Speaker 1: maybe you've got us all cued up. And I think

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Speaker 1: we need to set limits as to how far you

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Speaker 1: would buy it to because these bowl game spreads, they

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Speaker 1: just they get wild. And you can see with this

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Speaker 1: spread as we're recording this, all the ten and a

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Speaker 1: half's got chipped away. And that makes me wonder if

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Speaker 1: everybody that was buying Toledo at minus seven on open

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Speaker 1: like I was, if they're like, Okay, well now it's

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Speaker 1: time to cover it up. And that's just how we

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Speaker 1: play the game. We play the hedge game. So let's

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Speaker 1: see where this number goes. I know that I personally

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Speaker 1: make it twelve. I know Spplus makes at thirteen. I

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Speaker 1: know Stuck's got it up there too, So you know,

248
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Speaker 1: for me, I'm in the same boat with you with Toledo.

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Speaker 1: There's familiarity here with Toledo. Like I said, they lost

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Speaker 1: to FIU in this same place. They know how to

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Speaker 1: travel here for the upper classmen, and even if the

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Speaker 1: players weren't on the current roster, this Toledo team is

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Speaker 1: great away from home. They covered all but one game

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Speaker 1: on the road this season. The quand fin has made

255
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Speaker 1: all the difference in taking over starting duties in Game

256
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Speaker 1: seven against Central Michigan. Middleton Tennessee outside the top one

257
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Speaker 1: hundred and stuff rate in line yards, meaning every Toledo

258
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Speaker 1: rushing attempt it's four yards. It could be more, but

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Speaker 1: they're going to control the trench all game. As for

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Speaker 1: the offense, the Blue for the Blue Raiders, I don't

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Speaker 1: know fourth quarterback on the season. The offensive numbers have

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Speaker 1: been really bad for Middle Tennessee. There's no statistical advantages

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Speaker 1: on offense. I would take Toledo up through my power

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Speaker 1: number of twelve. It's not key, so maybe thirteen. But

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Speaker 1: like I said, it's getting snap back at ten and

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Speaker 1: a half, so we'll see where this number goes. Stucks right,

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Speaker 1: you get a nine and a half, take it. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be sharp money, it's really supporting it.

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Speaker 1: It's really just people that are covering up their initial bets.

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Speaker 1: Now that limits are starting to get higher. Right now,

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Speaker 1: as far as the wind goes, there's been heavier wind

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Speaker 1: at this bowl before. There's twelve to fourteen minie hour

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Speaker 1: wins and it's.

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Speaker 2: All blowing through one end zone.

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Speaker 1: There have been other years at this bowl where it's

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Speaker 1: been thirty mile an hour Gus crossfield orientation. What happens

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Speaker 1: is during the Bahamas Bowl is there seems to be

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Speaker 1: some sort of wind steam under every single season. But

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Speaker 1: I think we've seen this total drop there just an

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Speaker 1: amazing amount of points. When people hear about the wind,

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Speaker 1: now it's going to be double digits, but it's all

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Speaker 1: in one direction so far from what we see from

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Speaker 1: the forecast. So if we can get it down to

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Speaker 1: forty nine or forty eight, then you know, I think

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Speaker 1: you're taking an under to that point. But that's it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think for any reason you would want to

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Speaker 1: think that Middle Tennessee is going to score enough to

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Speaker 1: get an over here, So be cognizant of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it must just Middle Tennessee turnover luck continues. I

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Speaker 2: just don't see their offense doing much of anything come

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Speaker 2: of the point home even further Toledo, one of their

292
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Speaker 2: biggest weaknesses is their pass protection on passing downs and

293
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Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee can'ket after the quarterback. So I just think

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Speaker 2: that's a really good matchup across the board. This Toledo

295
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Speaker 2: running game and the Toledo defense overall are the stars

296
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Speaker 2: of the show in a game that I think both

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Speaker 2: teams will care. All right, let's move on to the

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Speaker 2: other game on Friday, and that is the Cure Bowl

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Speaker 2: in Orlando, Florida, six thirty eastern on ESPN two between

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Speaker 2: nine and four in Northern Illinois and ten and two

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Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina over under sixty three and a half. Look,

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Speaker 2: do I need to go into another ran on Northern

303
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Speaker 2: Illinois the biggest fraud in the bowls? I think they

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Speaker 2: went seven to two and one possession games they won,

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Speaker 2: I think four by two or less. They were outscored

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Speaker 2: in conference negative net yards per play, I mean in

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Speaker 2: conference too, even if you remove the Michigan game, just

308
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Speaker 2: fortunate year long. I mean twenty two of twenty six

309
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Speaker 2: on fourth downs led nation at eighty four percent. That's

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Speaker 2: not I mean, that's an astonishing number. How about their

311
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Speaker 2: opponents eleven for twenty eight top twenty five and all

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Speaker 2: these games are one possession. It's really insane. That defense

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Speaker 2: is maybe the worst of all any Bowl team. It's

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Speaker 2: a bottom ten defense across the board any metric that

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Speaker 2: you look look at. It looks like Grayson McCall is

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Speaker 2: going to play. He's hinted that he might transfer, but

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Speaker 2: I assume that he's going to play here. I think

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Speaker 2: motivation is equal. Northern Illinois will obviously care after an

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Speaker 2: awful year, really exceeded expectations. It's been a magical year.

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Speaker 2: Thomas Hammock has done a great job with that really

321
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Speaker 2: young roster, one of the youngest in all of FBS.

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Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina is back at the same Bowl for a

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Speaker 2: second straight year, but they lost it last year and

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Speaker 2: that was their first ball ever, so they're looking for

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Speaker 2: their program's first ever bowl victory. So again, double did

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Speaker 2: your favorite early on the Bold season. But I don't

327
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Speaker 2: think that this is one where you think that they

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Speaker 2: might not care. You know, when I look at this game,

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Speaker 2: I just say to myself, all right, the Northern Illinois

330
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Speaker 2: defense is horrendous. The Coastal Carolina defense is not great.

331
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Speaker 2: The Northern Illinois offense is pretty good, but the Coastal

332
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Speaker 2: Carolina offense with Grayson McCall as elite, and I mean

333
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Speaker 2: they can run the ball. It will. They have many

334
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Speaker 2: backs that can just shred on the ground. McCall is,

335
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Speaker 2: you know, from EPA perspective, was the best quarterback in

336
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Speaker 2: the country from a passing efficiency perspective. I don't see

337
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Speaker 2: how Northern Illinois gets any stops any maybe. I mean

338
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Speaker 2: they have to forget hope Coastal gets in the fourth

339
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 2: and ones and then their voodoo comes into play. So

340
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Speaker 2: I make this line just like the previous game we

341
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Speaker 2: talked about. And by the way, the first game we

342
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 2: talked about, there's no key coaching changes or personnel to

343
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 2: worry about. This one. Richie Tyre's Richie one of Northern

344
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,960
Speaker 2: Allinnois better receivers. He could play miss the last four games.

345
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Speaker 2: That's about it here, Assuming that McCall plays, I make

346
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Speaker 2: this line just like the other one. Fifteen fifteen and

347
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Speaker 2: a half. I guess I'm gonna have to lose money

348
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Speaker 2: on Northern Illinois one last time to end the year

349
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Speaker 2: because I just don't see how they get any stops.

350
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I believe. Well, we're recording on Wednesday night, and

351
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Speaker 1: I believe I just read a story from two hours

352
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Speaker 1: ago published that Grayson McCall is on site and he

353
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Speaker 1: gave an interview essentially to summarize this is going to

354
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Speaker 1: be the last time you see him in a Chance uniform.

355
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Speaker 1: I mean, McCall stated that his focus is winning this

356
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Speaker 1: bowl game and that he will be back playing college

357
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Speaker 1: football next year. That was his exact quote, and I

358
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: saw a lot of Coastal Carolina Twitter out there excited

359
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,399
Speaker 1: about his Heisman odds. It came out that's not going

360
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,560
Speaker 1: to be for your team in this whole free agency thing.

361
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: Grayson McCall is worth so much to that transfer portal

362
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Speaker 1: if he ends up on a team. I'm just saying,

363
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Speaker 1: keep your eyes open when Heisman odds come out or

364
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Speaker 1: if you can catch an old Heisman line. If Grayson

365
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,719
Speaker 1: McCall becomes quarterback of a team that is capable get

366
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Speaker 1: into the college football playoff, and I want to think

367
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Speaker 1: about shoving something over on a forty or fifty to one,

368
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Speaker 1: I'll just keep it at that because he said today,

369
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Speaker 1: my focus is winning this bowl. You will see me

370
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Speaker 1: in college football next year. And what that meant to

371
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 1: me was, I'm going to give Northern Illinois everything I

372
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Speaker 1: possibly can if this is my last game to suit

373
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 1: up with my teammates that I've been with through the pandemic,

374
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 1: through everything this Coastal Carolina team has been. You know,

375
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 1: such a had such a special place for our podcast,

376
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 1: Roll fucking Seance baby, you know. So I think with

377
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 1: free agency pulling him away, you know, look for look

378
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 1: at this cure bawl. It should be a slow tempo.

379
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 1: Both these teams are outside the top one hundred and

380
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 1: plays per minute. Both teams run the ball at least

381
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of snaps. So the question is can

382
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 1: the defenses control the line of scrimmage. Northern Illinois defense,

383
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 1: like you said, absolutely horrendous at almost everything. There's there's

384
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,479
Speaker 1: no stat inside the top one hundred and Grayson McCall

385
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 1: is facing a defense that is one hundred and twenty

386
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Speaker 1: second in standard down success rate. So while Coastal is

387
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: a methodical offense, they're pretty explosive too. With Grayson McCall,

388
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 1: I mean they could score asap against this Northern Illinois.

389
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Speaker 1: The total is like.

390
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Speaker 2: How many catches? Look likely he's going to have like

391
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty yards.

392
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Speaker 1: Absolutely, so the Coastal are going to end up in

393
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,679
Speaker 1: touchdowns every single time. The chance are sixth and finishing drives.

394
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Speaker 1: The question is is can NIU counter. That's where the

395
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: handicap really comes in. And the biggest issue with the

396
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 1: chance and I said this last year and I said

397
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,159
Speaker 1: it this year, is if you can rush, you can

398
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,880
Speaker 1: challenge Coastal. So the games that they've struggled or lost

399
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: the past two years, it's because the opponent can run.

400
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 1: NIU has Javon Decker, you know, and they're fifty ninth

401
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,880
Speaker 1: and stuff right, But that's better than Coastal's defensive numbers

402
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 1: and stuff right.

403
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 2: They're seventy ninth. So even though Northern Illinois.

404
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 1: Isn't burning the world, you know, on the ground, they

405
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 1: have better numbers running the ball than what Coastal has

406
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 1: on d The Huskies are going to try to move

407
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,400
Speaker 1: the ball. The key to beating them is getting Rocky

408
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 1: Lombardi in passing downs. I'd assume he's going to be

409
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: healthy after that last game of the season, but you know,

410
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: Coastal has a has a pass rush that ranks eleventh

411
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: in the nation. So the Rocky Lombardi turnover effect could

412
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 1: be you know, in full force here. But you know,

413
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Speaker 1: my projections for this game is Coastal fourteen. You and

414
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Speaker 1: I had this talk before. I don't I don't understand

415
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 1: the spread this right. Initially at ten and ten and

416
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 1: a half told me Grayson McCall isn't playing. I've made

417
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,679
Speaker 1: it fourteen again sp plus is at twenty. We had

418
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: this argument about is Grayson McCall worth ten points. I'm

419
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 1: not sure that's true with Bryce Carpenter on the list,

420
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: but I personally put in a play and shove money

421
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: over the counter on Coastal Carolina over thirty seven points.

422
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,160
Speaker 1: Reasons being I agree was stuck. They're going to score

423
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 1: in every possession. Sixth inn offensive finishing drives means you're

424
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 1: gonna get touchdowns every time. The explosive factor is there,

425
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 1: the success rate factor is there. And frankly, if Grayson

426
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 1: McCall has told everybody in that locker room this is

427
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: the last time I'm playing with you, I don't know

428
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 1: why they would ever stop scoring. And Jamie Chadwell has

429
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 1: not won a bowl game, and so this is a

430
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 1: big deal for me. It's team total over Coastal Carolina.

431
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 1: You can mess with this point spread if you want.

432
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 1: I would stop at probably thirteen or fourteen and that

433
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 1: back door is always going to be open for these guys.

434
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 1: And they do have an avenue because they can run

435
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: the ball to keep to stay at least stay within

436
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 1: two possessions of this game.

437
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, they could always get in the back door. Maybe

438
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 2: I'll join you there on the team total as well.

439
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: And I want to worry about norther Illinois, right voodoo

440
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: on fourth down? All right, Uh, let's move on to

441
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 2: Saturday and we'll start with eleven am Eastern theroofclaim dot

442
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 2: Com bocaver Tone Bowl in Boca Return in Florida, Boca.

443
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 2: You always want to look at the weather too, see

444
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 2: if there's any uh rain or wind that we're talking

445
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the Pride of the Commonwealth.

446
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, hell no boy, Oh no, hell.

447
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: No boy, Western Kentucky against Appalachian State. Appalachian State is

448
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 2: a three point favorite over under sixty seven and a half. Scheme.

449
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 2: As I said, is eleven am Eastern on ESPN motivation.

450
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: While we start there, I think it's about even here.

451
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any major edge either way. App State,

452
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 2: by the way, is six and oh all time in

453
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 2: Bowl games, the highest win percentage ever Western Kentucky four

454
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 2: and three three as a program at the FBS level.

455
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 2: They lost last year. One thing to keep in mind,

456
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 2: Bailey Zappi, Bailey Zappie, the questions he gonna go pro?

457
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: Is he gonna opt out? You know, you had their

458
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 2: offensive codator Zach Kittley take the job at Texas Tech

459
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: the same position. However, Kittley is staying the call plays,

460
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: Zappi is going to play. You know, they had Mason Brooks,

461
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 2: they're all conference offense tackle entered the transfer portal. So

462
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 2: did their receiver Mitchell Tinsley have eighty catches, thirteen yards,

463
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: twelve thout tens. But they both said they're gonna play.

464
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: So it's basically like, hey, we're gonna keep the band

465
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: together one last time. It's all these Houston Baptist guys,

466
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 2: so Western Kentucky it seems like they're gonna they want

467
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 2: to go out on top and one last party. They're

468
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: really going to care here. There are some assistants that

469
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: won't be coaching. Their co offensive coordator Brian Ellis took

470
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 2: the OC job at Georgia Southern. The offensive line coach

471
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: Stephen Hanby joined Texas Tech staff, they won't be there

472
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 2: a couple defensive losses. Western Kentucky. Their defensive tackle Jeremy

473
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: Darwin is just huge in the run game. He got

474
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 2: hurt early against UTSA. He's out he had surgery. Starting

475
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 2: linebacker will Ignott he didn't play the last two games

476
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 2: due to injury. I think he's out again as well.

477
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 2: What are their best corners is also unto the transfer portal,

478
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 2: but he's gonna play. So it seems like everyone cares

479
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: and wants to win this game. On the app State side,

480
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 2: Corey Sutton one of their best receivers. He will miss

481
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 2: this game after undergoing surgery. When I look at this

482
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 2: game in the Western Kentucky we talked about Western Kentucky.

483
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: They really should I think should have won that UTSA game.

484
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 2: But their defense is playing a lot better in the

485
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 2: second half of the year. They got healthier, made some

486
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: schematic changes. Their offense has been rolling. I mean they

487
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 2: were just dominating teams strength on strength when they're going

488
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 2: up against the app State defense. And on the other

489
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 2: side of the ball, app State they haven't really run

490
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 2: the ball that well this year. Chase Price has been

491
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: okay at times and that's kind of been the strength

492
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 2: of their team. Western Kentucky's better in the secondary than

493
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: they are in the run defense, so it's trying to

494
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: figure out how that dynamic is gonna work. At the

495
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: end of the day, I know that Western Kentucky really

496
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 2: cares here. I think you're gonna get everything they have

497
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: from a playbook stamp book. By the way, Zappi hour

498
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: is that fifty seven touchdowns Joe Burrow is a single

499
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 2: season record of sixty, so you can break that record here. Ultimately,

500
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 2: I say, look, I got Zappy with three points and

501
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: with a three in my pocket against Chase Brice. So

502
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: I just ultimately don't trust in a game that I

503
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: make a coin flip. I think I might have one

504
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: last dance after the disappointment of the Bowl game with

505
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: the Toppers. What'd say you?

506
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 1: I might be against you? And you know, really it

507
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: was your piece. And I'm telling everybody direct yourself to

508
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 1: Stucky's piece about who's in, who's out, coaches, players, everything,

509
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 1: and Stuck is right. There's a lot of Western Kentucky

510
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: players that are in the portal, but they're gonna play

511
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,719
Speaker 1: this game defensive. Bag Beanie Bishop is on Twitter, right

512
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: now like retweeting old Dominion like thank you for the offer,

513
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: thank you for the offer. Like everybody's sending him offers

514
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 1: and he's just retweeting and saying thank you. I mean,

515
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 1: it's it's crazy what's going on with Western Kentucky. But

516
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 1: I think it's important to know that Western Kentucky is

517
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: dealing with a lot of off field issues besides the

518
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: coaching staff, besides the players, besides what's going on here

519
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky. You know where they're at location in the

520
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 1: state of Kentucky just went through a massive tornado event

521
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: that ripped through and you know, killed a lot of

522
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 1: people and it wasn't really that far away from campus.

523
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: There's been a ton of personal time spent on relief

524
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: funds setting those up for people that were affected in

525
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: the area by that. So I'm not sure how much

526
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: of that is on their minds, along with the fact

527
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: already having one foot out the door and leading the program.

528
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: So I would just say from a whole focus perspective,

529
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 1: it's more you can question Western Kentucky versus you know,

530
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: questioning whether app state who's got their full focus on

531
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: this game. That You're right, Zach Kittley is going to

532
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: call this before he goes to Texas Tech and a

533
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: return back to Texas after being at Houston Baptist. I

534
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: would be shocked if Bailey's appy isn't in the portal

535
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 1: the day after this game when we talk about free agency.

536
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: This is him and Grayson McCall are going to be

537
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: the two biggest in the market. So you know where

538
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: is his mindset about breaking Joe Burrows record versus hitting

539
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: the portal the next day. I think you're right. I

540
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,719
Speaker 1: think they'll be fired up. So I think what makes

541
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: you like an app State? It's your piece. The two

542
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 1: coaches that won't be there co offensive quarter Brian Ellis

543
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: an offensive line coach Stephen Hamby do not want to

544
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: have problems against this app State front seven? Is apps

545
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 1: State gonna be able to contain that potent passing attack.

546
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: The Mountaineers are twenty eighth and coverage, they're twenty third

547
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: and passing success rate. They get to the quarterback and

548
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 1: passing downs, so maybe they'll have some success against Zappi.

549
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: And you know the issue is that they're on hundred

550
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: nineteenth in defensive pass EPA, so Zappi's gonna get those

551
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 1: three touchdowns I guarantee it they're gonna be bombs. But

552
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: if they get behind the line of scrimmage or the

553
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 1: long snappers throwing it over Zappi's head, or the offensive

554
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 1: line has any problems. App State is number one in

555
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: the nation in defensive havoc number one. Western Kentucky has

556
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: to have a clean sheet here, and that's why with

557
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: the offensive line coach not being there and not being

558
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 1: able to make adjustments in game, that would make me

559
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: a little bit worried. If app State figures out how

560
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: to crisscross stunts with their defensive interior hide their blitz packages,

561
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: I would be worried about Western Kentucky making those changes

562
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: on the fly. So ay, it's going to be able

563
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: to run all day on this Western Kentucky defense. We

564
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,719
Speaker 1: know that we said that about Army. The Hilltoppers are

565
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 1: bottom ten and stuff right ninety fifth and rushing success rate.

566
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: If head coach Sean Clark of the Mountaineers, if he

567
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: wants to slow this game down, they have a tempo

568
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: seventy ninth and draine clock, He's going to be able

569
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: to do it. And the biggest advantage in this game

570
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: is finishing drives. App State is top fifteen on both

571
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 1: sides of the ball, Western Kentucky one hundred and second defensively.

572
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: I have lived the pain of best bets on big

573
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: bets on campus Saturday, best bets of podcast, best bets,

574
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 1: of being on Western Kentucky, of having to hedge a

575
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: Conference USA title, and Western Kentucky's lining up and kicking

576
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 1: field goals all game. There's frustration here with what's going

577
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: on in the red zone with Western Kentucky on both sides.

578
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,479
Speaker 1: The power ratings for me make this a pick. That's

579
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: where I'm a little hesitant on this whole app State

580
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: minus three. I think with the Bailey z appy chatter,

581
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: I think with the attention they're getting, the public is

582
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: falling in love with this kid. The Joe Burrows stat's

583
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: getting thrown around a lot more. I think the numbers

584
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: are going to come off three, So I've kind of

585
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to come up. I don't

586
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: think Western's gonna get any more points. They might turn

587
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: into a public darling here. I want the team that's

588
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: going to dominate in the trench. That's app State. I

589
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 1: want the team that's number one in Havoc, that's app State,

590
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: and with Western Kentucky not having their offensive line coach

591
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: to adjust, that would make me really worried about backing

592
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: the Hilltoppers. Here, Chase Bryce, good luck, it's another yeah,

593
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: pick your poison here.

594
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to later on in the

595
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: afternoon for the pub G. What is that a Video games?

596
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: As Grandma, I have no clue.

597
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: Pub G New Mexica New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque between

598
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: the seven and five UTEP Miners and the nine and

599
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: three Freslo State Bulldogs. Frezloes are eleven and a half

600
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: point favorite here over under fifty one. This game will

601
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: be played two to fifteen Eastern on ESPN.

602
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: We're talking minor.

603
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 2: Nation out in the West Texans.

604
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: Town of a Pastor picks.

605
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: Up from a motivational perspective, I think this is one

606
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 2: game where I think you can say UTEP does have

607
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: a motivational edge. They haven't won a bowl game since

608
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: nineteen sixty seven. You know, Fresno State, I think they

609
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: had bigger aspirations this season than playing UTEP. So this

610
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: could be one game where you know the favorite doesn't

611
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: show up. Maybe if you like UTEP and you think so,

612
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: you might want to sprinkle a little money line on

613
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: Minor Nation. Know that Fresno State lost their head coach,

614
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 2: Kaylen Debora. He recently took the same job at Washington

615
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: and he took off as a quornit to Ryan Grubb

616
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: with him. So you will have Kirby Moore, Kellamore's brother

617
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: calling plays for the first time in his career, and

618
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 2: Lee Marks, the running backs coach, will be the interim coach.

619
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 2: Jeff they did recently hire Jeff Hedford will take over

620
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: after the bowl game. And the craziest story on here

621
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: is Jay Kyner originally announce he would transfer and then

622
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,239
Speaker 2: said he would not, And then I grabbed I had

623
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: a good number on UTEP and then who knows? Now

624
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: you have a better number than me, I plus thirteen

625
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 2: and a half. They don't know. They said that because

626
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 2: he's like abandoned the team. They don't know.

627
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: But he has a chance.

628
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: All three quarterbacks listen in the depth chart him and

629
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,239
Speaker 2: then two freshmen Logan Fight and Jalen Henderson, and then

630
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: the inter coach that you're not going to know until

631
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 2: game time. I'm not making a public so who knows.

632
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: But when I do look at this game, I know

633
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: that UTEP will have the motivation. Their defense has been

634
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: excellent all year. That's been the star of the show

635
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 2: for UTIP. It's the defense on offense, really inefficient offense.

636
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: They can't run the ball at all. You gotta worry

637
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: about havoc. For Fresno, they can really get in the backfield.

638
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 2: But the one weakness of Fresno's defense is giving up

639
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: explosive passing places they're outside the top one hundred. That's

640
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: where UTEP gets all their offense. Explosive pass plays, caling

641
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 2: their receivers excellent. Hartisan can really make some plays happen

642
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: down the field. That's where utipesilo it's going to be

643
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: inefficient and inefficient. Got to hit a big play. The

644
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 2: question is does Presno State show up? Does j Cater

645
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 2: end up playing quarterback because it's a huge drop ball

646
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 2: between anter and then one of these freshmen. Yes, so

647
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: tough game that Andy got. I'm stuck with my UTAB position.

648
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: I could have bought off, but it's a bowl game

649
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: and I do question some motivation here with Fresno, so

650
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna keep it, even though I don't show

651
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 2: the most value. With Painter, I would assume maybe I

652
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: prop most likely playing. What are your thoughts here, I don't.

653
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: Think he's playing. I don't think he's playing. The Bowl

654
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: confidence piece that I put out went. I went a

655
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: little in depth on the video that he cut. Specifically,

656
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: in the video that he cut to his teammates, he said,

657
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: I'll see you guys in twenty two. Apparently it's going

658
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 1: to be a team vote. The team is not too happy,

659
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: and the rumor on the street isn't so much that

660
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: it was his relationship with Tedford that brought him back

661
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: out of the portal. It was the fact that he

662
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: decided to enter himself in the portal and then found

663
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: out that he couldn't get a waiver granted. You know,

664
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: so with whatever statusy he has, you know before from

665
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: moving teams, he wasn't going to be granted a waiver.

666
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: And if you want to play next year, you got

667
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: to pull yourself out of the portal. So now you're

668
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: cutting video apologies and you're saying i'll see you in

669
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: twenty two. Now, maybe we see him on the field

670
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: ninety minutes before the game, and that'll be the time

671
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: to you know, edge your position against UTEP if you want.

672
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: But for all indications that I've seen that's it's he's

673
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: not gonna play. You know, I love I love my

674
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: UTEP bet too. I'm on yeah, I mean I got

675
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: a great number on Open. I was like, this, this

676
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: is a banger. They haven't UTEP hasn't won a Bowl

677
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: game since the Lyndon Johnson administration. I know early money,

678
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: sharp money was on UTEB and they liked it because

679
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: of the defense, and because of Haner and because of

680
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: dubor all these reasons. The issue is that UTEP still

681
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 1: gives up explosive plays. But that's what brings me to

682
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: the handicap where I still feel comfortable with UTEP. Why well,

683
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 1: Ronnie Rivers is still on Fresno and we are Ronnie

684
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: Rivers Pro Pod. But something down the stretch was maybe

685
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: it's durability, maybe more of an injury that we didn't

686
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: know about. But he had forty one missed tackles created

687
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: on the year. He only created eight miss tackles in

688
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: his last four games. UTEP is still a team that

689
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: runs fifty seven percent of downs, but they're really bad

690
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: at running the ball, and Fresno's top twenty five in

691
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: line yards and stuff rate. So I remember one.

692
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 2: Says give it up explosive pass plays. That's where UTAP

693
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: has to live. That's where they do live. They got

694
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 2: to hit him. Cowing has to have a huge.

695
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: Deck, and they give them up in passing down. They

696
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: could be third and fifteen in boom, UTEP touchdown from

697
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: fifty five out. That's exactly how they're going to get

698
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: their points. So it's a game I made seventeen with Hayner,

699
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: eleven without him. Where it sits now, it's hard for

700
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 1: me to handicap Presdo's quarterback situation when the others that

701
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: are left have twenty three passing attempts on the season.

702
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 1: But if Ronnie Rivers doesn't have this elusiveness that he

703
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: didn't have down the stretch, I can't see coming back

704
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: and me hitting Fresno the total. I think I'll be

705
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 1: looking over key if fifty one forty eight stuck. He's right,

706
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: there's gonna be explosive plays by UTEP, and once that

707
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: starts happening, UTEP gives up explosive plays of their own,

708
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: and this just beul could become a bomb fest. But

709
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: at the key numbers, I'll consider it over. But I'm

710
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: sticking with my UTEP.

711
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: Bet same sir, and let's hope mister Hayner doesn't play

712
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 2: or end or Fresno doesn't care. All right, let's stay

713
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: in the afternoon. We're going to introduce another bowl game

714
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 2: at the same time of dual bowls for the first time,

715
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 2: and the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana between

716
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: eight and four UAB and ten and two BYU. The

717
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: B YU Cougars are seven point favorites over under fifty

718
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: four and a half. This game's three point thirty eastern

719
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:22,919
Speaker 2: on ABC. Motivational edge here, I think it's I think

720
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: you can argue that U A B has the motivational

721
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: edge here. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't

722
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 2: care in this bowl. Meanwhile, B Yu, you know all

723
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 2: they did was beat a bunch of Power five teams,

724
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: dominate the PAC twelve, and get pushed out by one

725
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 2: spot from a New Year's six fold by Utah, who

726
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: BUYU beat. Early in the season, b Yu came out

727
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 2: and said, like we came up a half yard short

728
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 2: was the quote I think the ad had, and we

729
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: were stopped on the one yard with the one and

730
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 2: a half yard line or the half yard line. I

731
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 2: think he said, So they, obviously, I think, are a

732
00:34:57,800 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: little disappointed to be not playing in a bigger bowl.

733
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: Now you're in Shreatport. Now you're a sport, right. I

734
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: mean I've been there into Arkansas Missouri Bowl game. I mean,

735
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: this is not what you were wishing for.

736
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So when I look at this game, look I

737
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 2: make this game. I actually make this game under three.

738
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 2: So I took the seven as soon as I saw it.

739
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: The BYU defense has been really underwhelming you, and they've

740
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 2: had some injuries that have really caught up to them,

741
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: but a lot of their defensive metrics are extremely poor.

742
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 2: This is going to be strength on strength when BYU

743
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,479
Speaker 2: as the ball. By's offense has been excellent all year,

744
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 2: their defense is not UAB. Their defense is very good

745
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:42,240
Speaker 2: and their offense is middling. I really like Dylan Hopkins.

746
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 2: He's played a lot better at quarterbacks since taking over.

747
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: Dwayne McBride is a monster, one of the most the

748
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: best backs in the country you've never heard of. But

749
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna play. I haven't found out

750
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: any information. He was in a walking boot like a

751
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 2: month ago. He's incredible. I mean he's averaging like six

752
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 2: and a half yards per carrying conference play. He's awesome.

753
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: So the b YU run dy is very bad and

754
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 2: their defensive line can get pushed around. McBride could have

755
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 2: a huge day here, but I don't know if he's

756
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: gonna play. I do like Hopkins, I do think he

757
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: can move the ball here. I think this is, you know,

758
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 2: closer to a coin flip game. Motivational ed UAB. I

759
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 2: took the seven with no hesitation. Wouldn't be surprised if

760
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: you AB won this game out right. I would love

761
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 2: if McBride would play, but I can't get any infl

762
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 2: on it, but I would. I would probably guess know,

763
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: But there hasn't been anything out there yet. But I'm

764
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: rolling with your blazers in shreve Court. Are you Are

765
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 2: you going back to the well here with your boys?

766
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I took them earlier today. I

767
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 1: was waiting on Dwayne McBride news. Also, I've got to

768
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: I like it when you and I send our birds

769
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: in flight to try to get some information back, Like

770
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 1: we're like we're Lord Veris off of Game of Thrones,

771
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, like we're trying to get some

772
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 1: information here. What's going on? Dwayne McBride. You know, once

773
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 1: we figure out his status, the line is going to

774
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: move and if he's playing, it's going to come down.

775
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: So I like UAB already, let's go ahead and take it.

776
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: I don't think if he's not playing, I don't think

777
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: it's going to end up and going through seven to

778
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: seven and a half on a BYU team. So I

779
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 1: think it's good. If you want you AB, you're gonna

780
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: get it before that news comes out. His backup Jermaine

781
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 1: Brown had three tds to end the season. I believe

782
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 1: that was against UTEP, But he does not have the

783
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: ability to create mistackles or breakaway after contact like McBride.

784
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: Dwayne McBride four point eight yards after contact, Brown just

785
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: three point two. So that shows you, you know, the

786
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: drop off here that we got a running back, it's

787
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: a pretty big deal. So came in at seven on UAB. Really,

788
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: you know, the BYU defense has struggled. They struggle in

789
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: success rate. They're outside the top one hundred and stuff, right,

790
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 1: they're eighty seventh and tackling they're allowed.

791
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 2: I was shocked how bad I was looking at these

792
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 2: advanced me. It was bad.

793
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: It's not the team from last year. At all, And

794
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: so you know, the big handicap in this game is

795
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 1: that BYU is not stopping explosive plays and they're near

796
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: dead last in passing downs. Now what does that mean?

797
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins, who came on the scene and

798
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: through some bombs last year, has been so good and

799
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: taken over the starting position that Tyler Johnson is now

800
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 1: in the portal. That's how that's how much Hopkins has

801
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: this job secured. UAB is thirteenth in passing downs explosiveness. Hopkins.

802
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: You know, he takes over in Game four against Tulane

803
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 1: and he ends the season on a fifteen to six

804
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: TD to I in t ratio. That's going to eat

805
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: BYU's lunch. The BYU offense runs fifty five percent of

806
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: the time. But for every stat that I can tell

807
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: you about Tyler Algier, there's a separate UAB defensive stat

808
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 1: that I can counter with. Uab's defense has been fantastic,

809
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: per usual under Bill Clark. BYU is highly successful in

810
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: two areas, standard down success rate and offensive finishing drives.

811
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,240
Speaker 1: So the way to attack YOUAB is in passing downs.

812
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,919
Speaker 1: But that's not been the forte a BYU, so where

813
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: the Blazers are week on defense BYU has no way

814
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 1: to attack that, so I like UAB six are better.

815
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: We'll see where this number floats. I saw the six

816
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: at a sharp I'll come back up to a six

817
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 1: and a half. Six are better for me. On the Blazers,

818
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: they've covered every game away from home this year except

819
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 1: for one. B YU. They've only covered one game away

820
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 1: from Provo this year, so there's one team that's very

821
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 1: familiar with being on the road. I don't know how

822
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: you feel about the over under here. Fifty five is

823
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 1: very key, so I'm a little undecided on the total.

824
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: I'm away for McBride, but I'm definitely right in you Ab.

825
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: No matter the news, we get the best running back

826
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: in this game.

827
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make it spot on there, but I agree

828
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: with your take there that McBride probably does have an

829
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: impact in various ways. The Mormons will travel to the

830
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: Bible Belt. The report that one of the Bible Belt

831
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:45,479
Speaker 2: cities big Baptist Southern Baptist population. All right, let's stay

832
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 2: down south in Mobile, Alabama for the Lending Tree Bowl.

833
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: Between seven and five Eastern Michigan and seven and five Liberty.

834
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: The Flames are not and a half point favorites over

835
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: under fifty eight and a half. This game will be

836
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 2: he played five to forty five. Eastern on ESPN motivational edge,

837
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: I say even EMU is zero and three in bowls

838
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 2: under Chris Crighton. Their last bowl win for Eastern Michigan

839
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: came in the California Bowl in nineteen eighty seven. They

840
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 2: beat Santa se State is seventeen and a half one underdogs. However,

841
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: the three bowls that Creyton has coached in for Eastern Michigan,

842
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 2: they didn't win any of them, but they covered all three.

843
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: They lost by four to two and four Liberty meanwhiles

844
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 2: two and eren bowls they've wont. Both of them came

845
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 2: in the past two years. Still, this is like an

846
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 2: up and coming program, kind of a chip on their shoulder.

847
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 2: I think that they'll carre here, so I don't think

848
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 2: there's a motivational edge either way. Malik Willis apparently will play.

849
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: Some project him as a first round draftic. I don't

850
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 2: personally see it, but he looks like he's going to

851
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: play then play in the Senior Bowl when I so,

852
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: the question is can Eastern Michigan make a four straight

853
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 2: bowls covering or maybe they can pull off this out

854
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 2: right upset. When I look at the handicap from an

855
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: advanced metrics stamp point, Liberty is better at defending the

856
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 2: pass in the run. That's good against the Eastern Michigan.

857
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan can't run the ball. It's really there. They

858
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 2: have a couple of really good receivers Ben Bryant that

859
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: since he transfer has been good at quarterback. The worst

860
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: unit in this game, by far is the Eastern Michigan

861
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: run defense is horrifying, horrifying, and Liberty is a very

862
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 2: good rushing attack. So is that ultimately going to be

863
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 2: the difference here? Is just Eastern Michigan won't be able

864
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: to stop Liberty's ground game, and then Liberty's pass defense,

865
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 2: which is decent especially compared to its run d is

866
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: going to be able to get a few more stops.

867
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 2: What do you see here?

868
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chris Creighton three to zero against the spread in

869
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,240
Speaker 1: those bowl games, but I don't know if the spread

870
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 1: matters you want to win that bowl game, which he

871
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: has it yet. But Hugh Freeze five and one against

872
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 1: the spread in his bowl games, so he brings prepared teams.

873
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: I think That goes back to when we talked about

874
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: how what Lane Kiffin said of Hugh Freeze that he's

875
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: one of the best coaches in the nation at getting

876
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 1: his team prepared for games. And I think that really

877
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: plays into this here. I was an early buyer on Liberty.

878
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I already knew they were having problems with turnovers.

879
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 1: I knew there had problems on the offensive line, and

880
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 1: that's just something that Eastern Michigan can't expose whatsoever. So

881
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: you know, Liberty, I think something else to acknowledge, Like

882
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 1: Liberty went over the total just once away from home.

883
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 1: They ended the season losing three straight. They didn't cover

884
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: the last three games, minus eleven and net turnovers over

885
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 1: their last three games, and you know EMU ended the

886
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 1: season on three straight unders two. So it's not like

887
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 1: these two teams were lighting things on fire. I'm not

888
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: sure how you don't lay it with Liberty here. And

889
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: I know that Eastern Michigan, historically under Creighton, every game

890
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: is one possession. I think like there's almost never a

891
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: game where they win by more than seven or they

892
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: lose a game by more than seven. But I'm not

893
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: sure you don't lay with Liberty Liberty didn't, you know,

894
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: cover or win straight up the last three. But we

895
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: talked about the turnovers, and you know, Malik Willis is

896
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: just he's not getting any protection whatsoever. This offensive line

897
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: is ranked fifty fourth and pass blocking by PFF, and

898
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 1: if you dig a little bit deeper, Liberty is one

899
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty eighth and passing down they're near dead last.

900
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 1: They can't protect him whatsoever. A little bit is that

901
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: him leaving the pocket and trying to do too much,

902
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: but they can't protect him at all. Eastern Michigan's defense

903
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and nineteenth in havoc dead last and stuff

904
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: rate ninety second in passing down sack rate. They can't

905
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 1: get to him, and if they can, he's gone. It's gone.

906
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 1: So if Willis wants to run, he can run. If

907
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: he wants to pass, he's gonna be able to pass it.

908
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: If he needs time to throw, he's gonna get it

909
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: against a lifeless EMU defense. They have been lifeless on

910
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: defense and on offense the last three games. Ben Bryant,

911
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: he just wilted against Central Michigan three tone over Worth.

912
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 1: He plays to end the season. He had one big

913
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 1: time throw his final three games. I had no clue

914
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: what happened to the Eagles in Machin in November. I mean,

915
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: they have a balanced attack, but they're better in passing

916
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:50,720
Speaker 1: success rate than they are running the ball, so Bryant

917
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 1: can't get back on track with an offense. It's top

918
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: twenty five and finishing drives. Liberty's gonna run away with

919
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: this thing, and Malik Willis is off to the NFL

920
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 1: Draft and he's gonna need to build that stock. And

921
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: if Brian can somehow put together drives, you know the

922
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: overs in play, so you know, I think you're looking

923
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: at the over, but you need Eastern Michigan to do

924
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: their part. I make this game fifty four. I think

925
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 1: at the key of fifty nine, I would look under

926
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,839
Speaker 1: the Eagles, Like I said, they're just lifeless. And if

927
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: they switch out of Ben Bryant to Preston Hutchison, then

928
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: that makes this game a complete grinder on the ground.

929
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: But the under is really going to hit if Ben

930
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: Brian gets pulled for Preston Hutchison. So Liberty is the

931
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: play for me. I think Malik Willis goes crazy. EMU

932
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 1: doesn't have the defense to cause enough havoc to get

933
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: the turnovers again. You are playing on a point spread

934
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 1: that's above seven against Eastern Michigan, so tread lightley.

935
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I still have them all this one over, So

936
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: make sure you tune in and check and keep an

937
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 2: eye on the action that work apps you if I

938
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 2: have a play here. But good insight there. Let's move

939
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 2: on to the Promton Saturday night, the first annual Jimmy

940
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:58,879
Speaker 2: Kimmel a LA Bowl is SOFI Stadium in Englewood, California. Yes,

941
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:02,760
Speaker 2: it's the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. Ten and three Utah State,

942
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 2: the reigning Mountain West champs, will take on seven and

943
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 2: five Oregon State. The Beavers are seven and a half

944
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: point favorure over under sixty seven and a half. This

945
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: game we played seven thirty Eastern on ABC Motivational Edge.

946
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 2: I'd say even look, Utah State was good quitting the

947
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 2: program last year one of the worst years ever. They

948
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 2: exceeded expectations this year. They're obviously going to care here

949
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: under Blake Anderson. And this is their ninth bowl game

950
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: in eleventh tiers. For what it's worth, Oregon State, I mean,

951
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,439
Speaker 2: they haven't won a bowl game. This is their first

952
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 2: bowl games is twenty thirteen, they haven't been one. This

953
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 2: is big for the program, so I think both will

954
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 2: care for what it's worth. Oregon State linebacker Avery Roberts,

955
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 2: he led the PAC twelve and tackles, He will miss

956
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: this game due to surgery, and their second leading receiver,

957
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: Treyshawn Harrison, will miss the first half after getting ejected

958
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 2: for a fight against Oregon. Look, Utah State, I said

959
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 2: it before the Mountainless Championship against the San Diego State.

960
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:59,959
Speaker 2: Little did I know Dianego State would have a mass

961
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 2: of COVID outbreak and would be without a lot of

962
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 2: key players and down twenty five guys. But I think

963
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 2: that the US top state teams a fraud. I still

964
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 2: think that Logan Bonner has been great. Look, they have

965
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: great receivers, especially Tompkins, But this team just anytime they've

966
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 2: stepped up in class, I just haven't been impressed. And

967
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 2: they got blown out by boys, blown out by BYU

968
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 2: miracle comeback wins against Washington State Air Force UNLV, they

969
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 2: you know, get really lucky later quarterback in Sir Colorida State,

970
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 2: Karada State misses a field goal to win it. You know, Hawaii,

971
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 2: New Mexico State None of these teams can run the ball.

972
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 2: By the way. San Jose State they get blown out

973
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 2: by Wyoming, who puts up six hundred yards at the

974
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 2: you know, at New Mexico down they're like, there's seven

975
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,959
Speaker 2: string quarterback. Then they played San Diego State, who also

976
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 2: has no offense. I can't run the ball. I think

977
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 2: when you handicap, anytime you handicap Oregon State, it's can

978
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 2: you stop the run? Their offensive line is excellent, Baylor

979
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 2: and company can run the ball all over teams, and

980
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 2: I don't think Utah State can stop the run here.

981
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 2: They're runs numbers aren't bad, but just look at who

982
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: they've played this year. So I think Oregon State will

983
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 2: have success running the ball. And then on the other

984
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 2: side of the ball, Utah State cannot run the ball whatsoever.

985
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 2: Now they don't really want to run much. But the

986
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 2: strength of the Oregon State defense is their secondary. You

987
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 2: want to be able to run on this Oregon State team.

988
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 2: I think that's the weakness of their defense. That underbelly

989
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,399
Speaker 2: of the defense. I think they could be vulnerable against

990
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 2: the run. So I think this sets up as a

991
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 2: good matchup for Oregon State. I think both teams do care.

992
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 2: I think this line is super low for where I

993
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 2: projected and my thoughts on Utah State. But maybe Logan

994
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 2: Bonner and Topkins and company will come out here and shred.

995
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 2: But I just think Oregon State will be the team

996
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 2: that can more consistently move the ball in the ground.

997
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 2: Their secondary is a strength through their defense, which is

998
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 2: huge against Utah State. Anything any thoughts here? In the

999
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 2: Jimmy Kimmel A l A Bowl.

1000
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: Jimmy Kimmel l A Bowl, I actually took Utah State

1001
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: in the confidence Pool low confidence told this. I think

1002
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: straight up that they can win this game. And when

1003
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: Oregon State's defense has so many bad numbers and you

1004
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: lose your top tackler, I think that's a pretty big deal.

1005
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: And I mean, let's also talk. Let's clean up a

1006
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: couple other things with injuries on the offensive side of

1007
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 1: the ball. Questionables are backup running back to Sean Fenwick,

1008
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: you know, not nearly as elusive or breaking tackles, but

1009
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 1: starting left guard Jake Levin Goood He's also questionable for

1010
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:26,439
Speaker 1: this game. I believe he had three hundred and forty

1011
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: six snaps at left guard this year. So there's injuries

1012
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball here for Oregon State,

1013
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: and then if you want to get into trends. I

1014
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: know I've kind of mentioned this on the podcast, but

1015
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: I think there is a thing about preparing your team

1016
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: to travel on the road. Oregon State one in five

1017
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 1: against the spread away from cravallis Utah State six and

1018
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: one against the spread away from Logan. So one of

1019
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 1: these teams is way more comfortable on the road here,

1020
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 1: So we'll see how that plays out. My prs at nine,

1021
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 1: I mean, I haven't put any money on down on this.

1022
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: I'm waiting because the number keeps steaming and it's just

1023
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: going to sit in a dead zone here. I think

1024
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: that there's going to be Oregon State money coming in

1025
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: up till kick. So I'm willing to take the last

1026
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: Utah State number before this closes down, which is why

1027
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: I've waited on it. But you know, once you get

1028
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 1: past the injuries, Oregon State has been pretty bad on

1029
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 1: defense and on the road, and defense bottom ten and

1030
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: tackling bottom ten and defending the explosive pass and passing

1031
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: downs outside the top one hundred and sacrate. So when

1032
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 1: you hear all these things, these tackling grades by the

1033
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: Beaver's defense and the Utah State offense is sixth and

1034
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 1: standard downs explosiveness and their twelfth and passing downs explosiveness.

1035
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: This team from any down and distance, any down in

1036
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 1: distance can hit the home run, and it looks like

1037
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 1: against this Beaver's defense, it's going to happen a lot.

1038
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: This tackling grade is so bad that if you could

1039
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 1: just hit anybody five yards down the field, you don't

1040
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:45,839
Speaker 1: even have to mess with the coverage. You don't have

1041
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: to mess with the secondary. You can hit somebody and

1042
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: let them do the rest because the tackling grade is

1043
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 1: so bad. You know the one sat that really shocked

1044
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: me in this game, which I still I had to

1045
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: go and relook it up. I was like, did I

1046
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: somehow scrape it wrong? Utah State second defensively and stuff rate, Well,

1047
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 1: I didn't know that. On defense, this isn't a great

1048
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: rush defense, but they're getting the guys behind the line

1049
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: of scrimmers. So bj Baylor may get hit early or

1050
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: for Oregon State, or he may break a big play,

1051
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 1: but he's gonna get met in the backfield. It's just

1052
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: a matter if he can shed some guys off. There

1053
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: is a supreme advantage to Oregon State in scoring position,

1054
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 1: their third in offensive finishing drives. I know we've played

1055
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 1: some overs on Oregon State just because when they get

1056
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: down there, they score touchdowns. They don't kick field goals,

1057
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 1: they score touch that's got to do it. Yeah, I

1058
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: can see Organ States scoring a lot. I can see

1059
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: Utah State hitting tons of explosive plays because the tackling

1060
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 1: has been so bad and the explosive defense of Oregon

1061
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: State and standard passing downs has not been that great.

1062
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: And I had no clue that Utah State was top

1063
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: fifteen explosiveness. So I'm going to take Utah State. Go

1064
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 1: to see where this team takes us. No reason for

1065
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 1: me to act on seven and a half I projected

1066
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:51,959
Speaker 1: at nine. I'd be happy to take them at nine.

1067
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 1: And Organ State is going to be able to run,

1068
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 1: but their defense isn't going to be able to stop

1069
00:50:56,360 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 1: these explosive pass from Logan Bonner. So that's where where

1070
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: I'm at here.

1071
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 2: You did raise the point Utah State stuff, right, They

1072
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 2: can get into the backfield. That's the strength of their defense.

1073
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 2: But Oregon State number one in line yards, number one

1074
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 2: on the standard down line yards. Yeah, you know, number

1075
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 2: six in opportunity right number one in power success rate

1076
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: number four and stuff right number seven in stack right.

1077
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 2: So that's what they neutralize best. So fascinating matchup for sure.

1078
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 2: But I think I'm leaning the other way. I think

1079
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 2: we're on opposite sides there.

1080
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: But uh or maybe we both get the best. Maybe

1081
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 1: we both get the best number in the lands in

1082
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 1: the middle.

1083
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 2: We'll say, yeah, there you go. All right, let's move

1084
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,800
Speaker 2: on to the final game on Saturday night the RNL

1085
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 2: Carriers New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana between seven

1086
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: and five Marshall and twelve and one Louisiana. The Raging

1087
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 2: Cagun's are five point favorites over under fifty five. This

1088
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 2: game will be played at nine to fifteen Eastern on

1089
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 2: ESPN Motivational Edge. I say fairly even the questions were

1090
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 2: surrounding Louisiana. Yeah, you would say maybe Marshall definitely is

1091
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 2: gonna care Louisiana. Where are their heads at with their

1092
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: coach Billy Napier, and that he won't say his name,

1093
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 2: but he left. He's far as new head coach.

1094
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:13,720
Speaker 1: Scared money, don't have many money.

1095
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 2: You know, he won't be the coach for the Bowl Game.

1096
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 2: That's new head coach Michael Desormo. He was promoted from

1097
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 2: the tight ends coaching code. Defensive coordinator. Napier said, a

1098
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 2: small group of we'll stay on board to help through

1099
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 2: National Signing Day, which is on December fifteenth, and then

1100
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 2: he's taking a few staff ever to Gainesville, including defensive coordinator,

1101
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 2: outside linebackers coach Patrick Tony, running backs coach Jaffer Juluki,

1102
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:40,760
Speaker 2: stricted conditioning to coach Mark Hack and offense vanalyst Ryan O'Hara. Additionally,

1103
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 2: a couple of recruiting staffers, director of football logistics, director

1104
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,640
Speaker 2: of player personnel also head to Florida, and there's a

1105
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 2: couple others that might go as well. Big news here

1106
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 2: from a personnel standpoint, Grant Wells will play. It's the

1107
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 2: quarterback for Marshall Riverson. Questions there on injury, but he's

1108
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:59,919
Speaker 2: good to go. Louisiana's leading rusher Chris Smith is out.

1109
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 2: That's big. They're one of their best defensive linemen. They're

1110
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: run stuffer in the middle, Taylor Hump he's out. That's

1111
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 2: big as well. You know, Louisiana has been a tough

1112
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 2: team to craft this year. They seem to play up

1113
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 2: and down the competition no matter what. And then you know,

1114
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 2: sometimes they just look really good and sometimes they look

1115
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 2: pretty mediocre. Sometimes they look down right bad. Both teams

1116
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: are very good at running the ball, and both defenses

1117
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:25,240
Speaker 2: are worse against the run. And now you have Humphrey

1118
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 2: out for Louisiana. I've been lower in Louisiana than the

1119
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 2: market all year. It's worked out for me some and

1120
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 2: hurt me on others. But I make this game pretty

1121
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 2: much close to a pick. So I gladly took the points.

1122
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 2: I would take anything up to four, down to four

1123
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:48,799
Speaker 2: with Marshall. There's a chance here that Louisiana, you know,

1124
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 2: with all the coaching turmoil, it just comes out a

1125
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 2: little flat here. I don't expect that to happen. But

1126
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 2: I like Marshall here in this game. I think there's

1127
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 2: a lot of value in the line. And but I

1128
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,959
Speaker 2: will admit Louisiana is just a tough not to crack

1129
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 2: looking at some of the results this year.

1130
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm one hundre percent behind you. I took Marshall

1131
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 1: on open at four and a half and I was

1132
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: actually shocked to see the number go the other way,

1133
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 1: you know, especially with the coaching turnover that's happening at Louisiana.

1134
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: But it has come back down and we'll see where

1135
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 1: it goes from here, especially with Grant Wells. And I said,

1136
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 1: I know I put it in the notes on action

1137
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: app but you know that I might come back on

1138
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 1: this number of Grant Wells isn't playing, he is playing.

1139
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm sticking with Marshall. There's some things here,

1140
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: you know, the raging Cajun's they can be attacked on

1141
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 1: defense or outside the top one hundred tackling. They have

1142
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 1: a really hard time against past explosiveness. Their defense is

1143
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:40,799
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleventh in line yards. So there's an

1144
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 1: avenue here. And if you can't get pressure on Grant Wells,

1145
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 1: he can hit his targets. And Charles Hoff who's not

1146
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 1: going to take the job at Duke, He's going to

1147
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 1: be staying at Marshall. So this is, you know, big

1148
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: for him to get this Bowl win here. I think

1149
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of advantages Louisiana. You know, outside

1150
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,479
Speaker 1: the top one hundred plenty of defensive categories, one hundred

1151
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: and twenty eighth in defensive pass EPA. So if Grant

1152
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 1: Hills Grant Wells wants to hit anybody deep. He's going

1153
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 1: to be able to do that. His offensive line is

1154
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 1: twentieth and pass blocking their twentieth and havoc allowed. I

1155
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 1: expect a very fast paced seventh and place per minute.

1156
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 1: They're going to go up tempo on Louisiana all day.

1157
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 1: I think that might be the reason you see a

1158
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 1: little bit of a tick up in the total, because

1159
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:27,719
Speaker 1: Louisiana can play that game with you. I once saw

1160
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 1: the coach that will not be named up by fifty

1161
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:32,319
Speaker 1: on Ohio decide to go up tempo with thirty seconds left.

1162
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 1: So that is a game that they can play and

1163
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,400
Speaker 1: a game that I could see here, so lean to

1164
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 1: the over. I like Marshall, I agree with you. I

1165
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 1: think this game is a pick. I would play it

1166
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 1: down to my projective number three and a half four,

1167
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 1: just like you. I think we got the better coaching

1168
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 1: staff on the side of the Thundering Herd.

1169
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 2: All right, let's wrap up with one final game on Monday,

1170
00:55:54,120 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Old Dominion and Tulsa. This

1171
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:03,839
Speaker 2: game is at two thirty eastern ESPN, so I'm sure

1172
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 2: everyone is going to want to bet it. Tulsa's a

1173
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,479
Speaker 2: nine and a half point favorite here over under fifty

1174
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 2: two and a half. From a motivational perspective, I guess

1175
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 2: I wouldn't really throw it one way or the other.

1176
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 2: I mean, both teams got to six wins in their finale.

1177
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 2: That's usually a sign of teams that will care. You know, hey,

1178
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: we want to get their winning season. We got the

1179
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 2: bowl eligibility. Tulsa lost did just lose a Bowl game

1180
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:28,399
Speaker 2: last year. Last win came in twenty sixteen. Meanwhile, Old

1181
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 2: Dominion has only appeared in one Bowl in program history.

1182
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 2: That came back in twenty sixteen. Obviously, I would think

1183
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 2: Tulsa cares a little bit, But there's no question Old

1184
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 2: Dominion cares about being here with the way they closed

1185
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,359
Speaker 2: the season to get the balls, but they didn't even

1186
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 2: play last year. Friger Running has done a great job there,

1187
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 2: the ex Penn State assistant it took over the head

1188
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 2: coaching job, so I know that they will care. I

1189
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 2: am starting to lean towards Old Dominion. There was a

1190
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,319
Speaker 2: team I started playing at the end of the year.

1191
00:56:57,320 --> 00:56:58,879
Speaker 2: My numbers just can never catch up because I thought

1192
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:00,839
Speaker 2: I had them so bad with my priors coming into

1193
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 2: the year, they just kept exceeding expectations, especially the defense,

1194
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 2: over and over again. I still need to sleep on

1195
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 2: this for a couple of days, I think, but maybe

1196
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 2: you can push be one way or the other if

1197
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 2: you have a strong feeling. What do you got?

1198
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 1: I mean, they started off the season one and six

1199
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 1: and the biggest problem was turnovers. They cannot take care

1200
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 1: of the ball whatsoever.

1201
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: But change quarterbacks, which helped a little bit.

1202
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 1: Change quarterbacks, and then all of a sudden you become

1203
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 1: an explosive passing team. You're making plays on special teams.

1204
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 1: I don't feel like the overall season numbers, if I

1205
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 1: start citing them from an offensive side of the ball,

1206
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 1: justifies what this team really is. I mean, winning their

1207
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 1: final games and covering I had to pull them from

1208
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 1: the power ratings wreck of being down around New Mexico

1209
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:45,919
Speaker 1: State and get them up to like a Georgia State

1210
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 1: level type level there. I mean, they've had a pretty

1211
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 1: amazing poll here at the end. But you're right, this

1212
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 1: game I power rate at seven and a half. I

1213
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 1: hit Old Dominion immediately at eight. I would probably hit

1214
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 1: them again at nine if I start to feel more

1215
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 1: comfortable about it, and a lot of handicap. Like I said,

1216
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: I think he can take old dominion stats and throw

1217
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 1: him out because they made changes. You know, we've now

1218
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 1: got Hayden Wolf a quarterback. I mean the passing attack,

1219
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: he's eighteen to nine, big time throw to turnover worthy plays.

1220
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 1: The kid at quarterback has been fantastic. There's something that

1221
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 1: bothers me about Tulsa here locally, we thought he was

1222
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 1: going to get fired.

1223
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 2: They won an overtime and covered against mister Fieldgal No.

1224
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: One by six. God, I'm so tired of the over time.

1225
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: I think it's a good thing they sell Beiger down

1226
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: at Skelly. Philip Montgomery was gonna get fired, all right.

1227
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 1: I mean he was RG three's quarterback coach down at Baylor.

1228
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: He got his job at Tulsa. He had a couple

1229
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 1: of really bad years, and he refused to fire his

1230
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, which had been in college football for like

1231
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 1: forty years. He brings in defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie. Tulsa

1232
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 1: all of a sudden is a major player in their conference.

1233
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: You know, we saw what they were last year. One

1234
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 1: of the best, you know, was Zavin Collins. I mean

1235
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:52,959
Speaker 1: that was all Joseph Gillespie, and now he has left

1236
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: TU to go do that same role at TCU. That

1237
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 1: is a great hire by TCU, But that really gives

1238
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,880
Speaker 1: me pause on some of these tools. The defensive numbers

1239
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 1: that I see here twenty seventh in tackling, that is

1240
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 1: a stat category that is peer coaching. So do these

1241
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,720
Speaker 1: practices does it kind of tail off? You know? I

1242
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 1: look at some of the other numbers, the top twenty

1243
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 1: five in defending the big play, is that going to

1244
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 1: stick around? We don't know? Sixth in pass rush? Are

1245
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 1: they still going to be there? Are they? You know?

1246
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:21,440
Speaker 1: I mean, are they going to have a new scheme

1247
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 1: or advantage the whole defensive coordinator Joseph Glessie worries me.

1248
00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 1: Now on the other side of the ball, Davis Brnnan

1249
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 1: his protection because he gets a little wild with a

1250
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 1: football and have it allowed. The offensive line coach Jach

1251
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 1: Hanson has left for USC. Philip Montgomery is not a

1252
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:37,440
Speaker 1: hands on coach. He is not a guy that's coaching

1253
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 1: all these positions. He is a guy that has needed

1254
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 1: these guys to come in to make this a stable program.

1255
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 1: And with those coaches leaving, and this is a very

1256
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 1: motivated Old Dominion team and Ricky Rain, you know, head

1257
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 1: coach after what happened with the pandemic and not playing.

1258
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: In my opinion, I think Old Dominion is just a

1259
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,880
Speaker 1: better bet here. I mean, I can sit here and

1260
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: tell you that the spread I make it seven and

1261
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 1: a half and there's no value in the eight. But

1262
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 1: at the same time, I see two teams trending in

1263
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 1: opposite directions, completely opposite. I know Tulsa won their final three,

1264
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 1: but look at the schedule. I think these two teams

1265
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 1: are heading in completely different directions. I'm going to back

1266
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 1: Hayden Wolf here. Eighteen big time throws is a big deal.

1267
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 1: Only nine turnover worthy plays means he makes great decisions,

1268
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:18,439
Speaker 1: and these Old Dominion numbers just got better and better

1269
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 1: over time. Defensively, they're twenty second in pass coverage, so

1270
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 1: I don't expect Tulsa and David Burn to be able

1271
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 1: to do anything against that. They're a little bit light

1272
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 1: when it comes to defending the rush, but Tulsa's one

1273
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 1: hundred and sixth then in rushing success right, so I

1274
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:35,880
Speaker 1: don't see Tulsa doing much here. I see Old Dominion

1275
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 1: the more motivated team. I took Old Dominion in the

1276
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,600
Speaker 1: Bowl confidence pool, I would happily just grab a number

1277
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 1: here in the dead zone and I look forward to

1278
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 1: cheering on the Monarch's pretty hard on my birthday twelve twenty,

1279
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 1: pretty excited.

1280
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 2: Oh nice, happy early birthday. And yeah, I definitely be

1281
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 2: taking them at plus ten and yeah, I mean, look,

1282
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:55,560
Speaker 2: it makes sense that they would improve as the season

1283
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 2: went on. They didn't play last year, right, so and

1284
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 2: then you know, going from DJ Mac the Wolf has

1285
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,480
Speaker 2: been just a world of difference. Here's some of the numbers.

1286
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 2: Mac fifty one percent completion percentage, five point one yards

1287
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 2: per attempt, five touchdowns at seven interceptions in one hundred

1288
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 2: and seventy attempts. Wolf in two hundred and twenty five

1289
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:19,080
Speaker 2: attempts sixty two percent completion percentage over ten percent higher,

1290
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: seven point eight yards per attempt almost three yards higher,

1291
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 2: ten touchdowns and six interceptions. So it's been a world

1292
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 2: of difference.

1293
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 1: That was the impossible thing stuck when you and I

1294
01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 1: when we were doing preseason pods, It's like, what do

1295
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 1: we do with Old Dominion because we knew that Mac

1296
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 1: when he was at Central Florida. The kid has built

1297
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:43,479
Speaker 1: like a tank. He is a first in gold Machine, right,

1298
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 1: just let him line up and run it in. But

1299
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 1: he doesn't. His arm was very questionable. But now we've

1300
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: got a quarterback that makes really good decisions in the pocket,

1301
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:54,800
Speaker 1: can really sling the ball, and the old dominion offense

1302
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 1: is flourishing underneath that after starting off one and six.

1303
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 1: So I'm glad they have an identity. I'm glad here

1304
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 1: and I can't wait to watch them. But yeah, you're

1305
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 1: right with Matt. It was they had three different quarterbacks

1306
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:07,360
Speaker 1: that did three different things very well, and none of

1307
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 1: them did the same thing, even just you know Vanilla.

1308
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 1: I mean, this was a really hard team to handicap.

1309
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:14,440
Speaker 1: But they do have an identity now, and Hayden Wolf

1310
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:15,200
Speaker 1: is that identity.

1311
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, do you have it? Nine bowls between

1312
01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:20,959
Speaker 2: Friday and Monday wrapped up again? We will have part

1313
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 2: two come out on Monday. We'll cover the bulls from

1314
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:27,560
Speaker 2: Tuesday through Christmas or seven bowls. By the way, make

1315
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 2: sure you leave a review. Subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe Big

1316
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 2: Bets on Campus. I'll do some giveaways next podcast. It's

1317
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 2: probably doing seven bowls for some of the reviews, So

1318
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 2: if you do one between now and then, it's a

1319
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:39,640
Speaker 2: good chance you might get some free gear. But before

1320
01:02:39,680 --> 01:02:43,280
Speaker 2: we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1321
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1322
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 2: All right, first down, Let's give just some thoughts, some

1323
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:53,439
Speaker 2: quick rambling thoughts on bowl confidence pools. You know, there's

1324
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 2: an against the spread one, and there's a regular straight

1325
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 2: up one you can do. There's all different types. I

1326
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 2: tweeted out a couple bulls that I'm running. You can

1327
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 2: find them on my Twitter. I'll tweet them out again tomorrow.

1328
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 2: But what I like to do personally, if you're just

1329
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:08,959
Speaker 2: doing this for pure entertainment, I think that you want

1330
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:12,320
Speaker 2: to stack your most of your points at the end

1331
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 2: and then you're in it for as long as possible,

1332
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 2: right your maximum points. That's just if you want to

1333
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 2: do it for fun, right, And I will admit a

1334
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 2: lot of the games towards the end of all season

1335
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:27,680
Speaker 2: you can better handicap motivation. But if you're trying to

1336
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 2: win it just throughout, and then you obviously want to

1337
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:34,280
Speaker 2: pick the winners and try to find where the most

1338
01:03:34,360 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 2: value is. And I mentioned you know, if you're doing

1339
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:39,920
Speaker 2: a straight up pool, if you want to take some shots,

1340
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 2: the shots that I'm taking utep, especially if Hainter doesn't play.

1341
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 2: We'll talk about this later since the uh so, those

1342
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 2: are two of my longer shots. And with those, you know,

1343
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 2: like everyone is going to have Alabama winning, everyone is

1344
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:58,640
Speaker 2: gonna have Frezzey. So you don't need to get too

1345
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 2: crazy with those, right. That's another thing to keep in

1346
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 2: mind because if everyone's gonna have them in a straight

1347
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,240
Speaker 2: up pool, if everyone is gonna have them at forty

1348
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:08,400
Speaker 2: thirty eight, you don't need to, you know, go forty

1349
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 2: or thirty I don't know, because you're gonna pick up

1350
01:04:10,000 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 2: a lot of points in the pool just by having

1351
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 2: those teams very low on your confidence rating, but against

1352
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 2: the spread pool, I have both those teams very high. Anyway,

1353
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:21,440
Speaker 2: give to give some thoughts that you have, I.

1354
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 1: Think you have to assess the room. You have to

1355
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 1: take the temperature. And what I mean by that is

1356
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 1: is if you're in a pool with with some buddies.

1357
01:04:28,120 --> 01:04:29,280
Speaker 2: It's a sharper square.

1358
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, is it sharpers?

1359
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 2: Big? Is it?

1360
01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 1: How big is it? Because and if you're in a

1361
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 1: very large pool, you're gonna have to take some shots.

1362
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 1: And that's the way that I wrote the bull confidence

1363
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 1: piece is like, Yeah, I think that we're gonna take

1364
01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 1: UTEP and assign them six points even though they're a

1365
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 1: huge underdog. Yeah, we're gonna take Old Dominion. We're gonna

1366
01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 1: sign them twelve points, even though they're a huge underdog.

1367
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:51,360
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to take your shots at certain points.

1368
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:54,160
Speaker 1: Do I think there's any chance in this world Mississippi

1369
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,320
Speaker 1: State and Mike Leach loses a Texas Tech? God? Know,

1370
01:04:56,480 --> 01:04:58,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna give them a very, very high rating.

1371
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 1: And I think you need to respect the fact when

1372
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 1: some games have questions, is can he Pickett playing? I

1373
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:09,600
Speaker 1: don't know, And according to Pat and Ardoozy, nobody's gonna

1374
01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 1: tell us until the night before the bowl game. So

1375
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:14,200
Speaker 1: even though you might like a side of Michigan State pit,

1376
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 1: I don't know how you put any confidence behind either team.

1377
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,520
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter who you like. So information is key.

1378
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: Matchups are key. Army right going up against the Missouri

1379
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 1: defense that is one of the worst in the nation,

1380
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 1: against the rush that is going to be tough sledding,

1381
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 1: So you want to sign a certain point value too,

1382
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 1: Same thing with air Force going up against Louisville. What

1383
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 1: is LSU doing at quarterback? Right? Is Doug Nusmyer going

1384
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:36,800
Speaker 1: to burn a red shirt? Or is he not going

1385
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: to have to burn a red shirt? And because this

1386
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: game is almost a month away, I signed it a

1387
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 1: low bowl confidence.

1388
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 2: But Texas A and M doing I mean they might

1389
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: run wildcats. Yeah.

1390
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: I submitted the piece and then I had to pull

1391
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 1: it back out of the pool to our editors because

1392
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 1: Zach Kazaa decided to put himself in the portal. Are

1393
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 1: you kidding me?

1394
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:53,479
Speaker 2: Who gives this shit?

1395
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 1: We have that up? What are we doing here? You know,

1396
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:01,040
Speaker 1: you have to investigate each one of And I would

1397
01:06:01,080 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 1: just say, assess the room. If it's your buddies and

1398
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:07,040
Speaker 1: it's a small pool, just take straight favorites, right, maybe

1399
01:06:07,040 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 1: a couple shots here and there. But if it's a

1400
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:12,280
Speaker 1: smaller room and it's it's a softer crew, just stick

1401
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 1: with the big Just stick with the favorites. Now, if

1402
01:06:14,120 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: you're in with a lot of people, you're gonna take

1403
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 1: some shots, take some calculated shots. Read the market. See

1404
01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 1: where the line disagrees, See where numbers look funny. See

1405
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 1: where there's maybe some reverse line movement, or maybe there's

1406
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,240
Speaker 1: you know, some whispers out about people transferring or not

1407
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 1: playing or coaches whatever, and and and so I think

1408
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: that's the best thing I can say is is you know,

1409
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:37,560
Speaker 1: the larger the pool, the bigger the shots you're gonna

1410
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 1: have to take.

1411
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:41,720
Speaker 2: Yep, make sure you check out Collins piece out there

1412
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 2: on Actionnetwork dot com and the Action Network at all.

1413
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 2: Right for second down, I just have some very quick

1414
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:56,480
Speaker 2: thoughts on a Friday night game. We already talked about

1415
01:06:57,040 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 2: the two bowl games on Friday, but there is an

1416
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 2: FCS between the semifinals of this week and one's on Saturday.

1417
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 2: Ones on Friday at North Dakota State and James Maddison.

1418
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:08,720
Speaker 2: Northdakota State's a five and a half point home favor

1419
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:11,000
Speaker 2: in the Fargo down where they hardly ever lose. Although

1420
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:12,840
Speaker 2: I think James Madison won of the semifinals the year

1421
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 2: they won it all, I think twenty sixteen. This is

1422
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 2: the last row for Jamie. They're going to the FBS level.

1423
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:20,480
Speaker 2: I really like jam U plus five and a half

1424
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 2: if especially if I like them plus five and a half,

1425
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 2: but especially if Christian Watson, who's gonna get drafted in

1426
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:29,880
Speaker 2: mid round DRAFTIC, their All American receiver doesn't play, hasn't

1427
01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:32,160
Speaker 2: played the first two playoff games. They've also lost their

1428
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:35,280
Speaker 2: All American tight end injury. North Dakota State. All they've

1429
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 2: been doing is running their quarterbacks. Pretty underwhelming performances in

1430
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:43,080
Speaker 2: the playoffs, especially without Watson out there. James Madison has

1431
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:45,880
Speaker 2: the beef up front and the run defense to slow

1432
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:49,040
Speaker 2: down this North Dakota State rushing attack, and especially Watson's

1433
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 2: out there, you can completely sell it against the run.

1434
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,520
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, James Madison has

1435
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 2: much better receivers they can attack this very young North

1436
01:07:58,720 --> 01:08:01,520
Speaker 2: Dakota State secondary. I got my eyes on Watson. If

1437
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,600
Speaker 2: he's out Friday night, we're gonna be playing some James

1438
01:08:04,640 --> 01:08:06,360
Speaker 2: Madison plus five and a half. I think this game

1439
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:09,800
Speaker 2: should be closer to a pick under a field goal.

1440
01:08:10,360 --> 01:08:12,040
Speaker 2: But if Watson's out, I mean, it's just lost for

1441
01:08:12,080 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 2: All America. The weapons on the outside, it just comes

1442
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,839
Speaker 2: so one dimensional, and James Madison's run defense is legit.

1443
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:20,680
Speaker 2: All right, You don't have any thoughts f CSD, No,

1444
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 2: I mean, I.

1445
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 1: Completely agree with you. I'm just saying watch the game anyways,

1446
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 1: because the Dukes are going to be a part of

1447
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:26,720
Speaker 1: the Sun Belt, so get familiar with the team real

1448
01:08:26,760 --> 01:08:28,639
Speaker 1: soon because we got some new entries into the FBS

1449
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:29,439
Speaker 1: coming real soon.

1450
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, on third down,

1451
01:08:32,120 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 2: let's give our favorite bet of the weekend in Bowls.

1452
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:40,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna start with game he talked about to kick

1453
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 2: off the episode, and that's Toledo minus ten against Middle Tennessee.

1454
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 2: This Middle Tennessee state team, I think there's a lot

1455
01:08:49,880 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 2: of smoking mirrors. They you know, had ten return touchdowns

1456
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:59,000
Speaker 2: led the nation, led the nation, and takeaways ed you know,

1457
01:08:59,040 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 2: we covered fifteen of twenty fumbles on the year. They've

1458
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 2: just been very fortunate in the turnover the department. They

1459
01:09:05,160 --> 01:09:08,160
Speaker 2: could be pushed around up front, That's exactly how Toledo

1460
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 2: wants to move the ball. With Cobak and company the

1461
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, they're down to the third

1462
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:15,360
Speaker 2: and fourth string options at quarterback going up against arguably

1463
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:19,679
Speaker 2: the best non Power five defense out there in Toledo,

1464
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:22,960
Speaker 2: which really has no weaknesses. And on top of all that,

1465
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 2: the one weakness of Talita's offense is their pass protection.

1466
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:28,120
Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee doesn't get after the quarterback. Maybe some windy

1467
01:09:28,120 --> 01:09:31,920
Speaker 2: conditions as well, just would heavily favor the superior rushing

1468
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:35,280
Speaker 2: offense and defense. I just think this line is way

1469
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:38,120
Speaker 2: too low to make it over two touchdowns. The one

1470
01:09:38,160 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 2: concern early bowl would there be motivation questions with Toledo

1471
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 2: always a question in these early bowls. If they don't

1472
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 2: show up, sure they could lose, but they haven't won

1473
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:52,040
Speaker 2: a bowl since twenty fifteen. Very experienced team. They showed

1474
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:53,880
Speaker 2: me down the stretch. They still care. I think they

1475
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 2: come out here and take care of business in a

1476
01:09:56,960 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 2: very good matchup. Give me the Rockets. How about you

1477
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 2: a favorite? Better we go?

1478
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,200
Speaker 1: I like that one. I am going to stick with

1479
01:10:03,439 --> 01:10:05,679
Speaker 1: a Friday night game and I am going to take

1480
01:10:06,160 --> 01:10:10,000
Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina team total over thirty seven. This is a

1481
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:13,000
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois defense that is one of the worst in

1482
01:10:13,040 --> 01:10:16,360
Speaker 1: the nation. So many defensive stats that are outside the

1483
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:18,719
Speaker 1: top one hundred, some of them are almost dead last.

1484
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:22,400
Speaker 1: And this is Grayson McCall's swan song for the chance.

1485
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:25,120
Speaker 1: This team that we love during the pandemic, this team

1486
01:10:25,160 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 1: that we love this year. He has come out and said,

1487
01:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 1: my only goal is to win this bowl game and

1488
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:32,840
Speaker 1: I'll see you in college football next year, which means

1489
01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 1: he is hitting the transfer portal right after this game.

1490
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:38,679
Speaker 1: His relationship with the players and the staff and Jamie Chadwell,

1491
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:41,639
Speaker 1: who's never won a Bowl game before, is extremely important

1492
01:10:41,640 --> 01:10:44,760
Speaker 1: to him. And I think everything that he has from

1493
01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:47,600
Speaker 1: an EPA perspective, from his explosiveness, the way that he

1494
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,320
Speaker 1: runs an offense, the fact that Coastal Carolina is number

1495
01:10:50,360 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 1: one in the nation, a big player, there's sixth in

1496
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:54,599
Speaker 1: line yards, or you know their passing attack that they have.

1497
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 1: They can go slow and drain clock, they can hit

1498
01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,400
Speaker 1: explosive plays and beat you up with a ton of

1499
01:10:59,400 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 1: points early, and they're going to do that to this

1500
01:11:01,160 --> 01:11:04,800
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois defense. I want to avoid this voodoo that

1501
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:07,280
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois had all year. They do have a decent

1502
01:11:07,360 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 1: rushing attack, and they can take advantage of a Coastal

1503
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 1: Carolina defense that's been a little bit susceptible in the

1504
01:11:12,560 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 1: front seven to giving up the rush. I want to

1505
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:16,760
Speaker 1: avoid all that completely with this point spread and that

1506
01:11:16,840 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 1: backdoor being open by saying that this Northern Illinois defense

1507
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 1: just does not have a chance to stop one of

1508
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 1: the best quarterbacks in the nation, a name we are

1509
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 1: going to be saying a lot next year when it

1510
01:11:26,479 --> 01:11:29,519
Speaker 1: comes to Heisman nods and Grayson McCall, give me the

1511
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:32,080
Speaker 1: chance to go over their team total at thirty seven.

1512
01:11:33,439 --> 01:11:36,200
Speaker 2: All right, there you have it. Thanks everyone for tuning in,

1513
01:11:36,240 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 2: and again we'll have three more Bowl previews, starting with

1514
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:43,519
Speaker 2: one next Monday that'll cover the games through Christmas. Thanks

1515
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:47,599
Speaker 2: as always for tuning in. Maybe COVID variants be on

1516
01:11:47,640 --> 01:11:50,600
Speaker 2: your side throughout the whole season. Let's close out the

1517
01:11:50,680 --> 01:11:53,880
Speaker 2: years strong. Thanks again as always for listening. Thanks Colin

1518
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:56,120
Speaker 2: for joining me. Make sure you subscribe on top, subscribe,

1519
01:11:56,280 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 2: leave a review. Let's have a weekend and we'll catch

1520
01:11:59,120 --> 01:11:59,599
Speaker 2: you all next week.

1521
01:11:59,720 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 1: Cheer PA's out.